As vaccination is rolled out across advanced economies, the main danger has become mutations of the virus, or variants. We all know about the B.1.1.7 variant that emerged in the UK in September and helped generate the rapid rise in cases in December. We also know about the ‘South African’ variant (B.1.351), which appears to reducethe effectiveness of all vaccines to some degree. But these are just two of the better known variants, which seem to be emergingall the time (see also here). COVID variants are the reason that so many countries have now severely restricted travel (‘almost closed borders’) into their countries in recent weeks. One of these variants could severely reduce the effectiveness of a country’s vaccination programme. It is likely that scientists would… [Read More...]
January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat
January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat This morning’s report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.After adjusting for inflation both personal […] The post January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
COVID-19, experts and the media
On February 4th, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) publishedan editorial which suggested that the actions of most government’s in mishandling the COVD-19 pandemic could be described as ‘social murder’. They write: “The “social murder” of populations is more than a relic of a bygone age. It is very real today, exposed and magnified by covid-19. It cannot be ignored or spun away. Politicians must be held to account by legal and electoral means, indeed by any national and international constitutional means necessary. State failures that led us to two million deaths are “actions” and “inactions” that should shame us all.” The biggest state failure of them all is the UK Chancellor persuading the UK Prime Minister to ignore his expert scientific advisers last autumn. This damning… [Read More...]
We Need a Plan for Militias
We Need a Plan for Militias ;A social trend can lie dormant for years, gradually expand and then suddenly explode as if following a hidden exponential growth curve. ; Revolutions work this way, and so do religious cults. ; Most of the time the curve is nipped in its early phase, but not always. ; It isn’t a […] The post We Need a Plan for Militias appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Media radicalisation in the US and UK
Perhaps many people outside the United States do not realise how dangerous the attack on the United States Capitol was. The views from outside the Capitol, which is all the media could immediately show, seemed harmless enough. The reality was very different. Five people died, including one policeman. As one Republican described, seeing the faces of those trying to force their way through a police barricade to get into the House Chamber “I saw this crowd of people banging on that glass screaming. Looking at their faces, it occurred to me, these aren’t protesters. These are people who want to do harm. What I saw in front of me was basically home-grown fascism, out of control.” We now know that this was a well organised… [Read More...]
Economic insecurity, redux
Several comments on my last post on the economic difficulties of the people who attacked the Capitol took aim at their characters in one way or another. I certainly do not want to defend the Capitol invaders in any way. I think they should be vigorously prosecuted. However, it is critically important to step back […] The post Economic insecurity, redux appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
What Game Are You Playing?
Photo Credit: Alex Alexi ||As Captain Kirk once said (something like): “If you are stuck in a losing game, find a way to change the rules.” You might be a very good trader. More likely, you are not. The markets are not like Lake Wobegon where all the children are above average. Personally, I think that I am probably an average trader, which is why I don’t trade much. That said, there is a reason to avoid thinking of trading as a way to make money. It is a negative sum game for those who are not market makers, specialists, or high frequency traders, whose computer algorithms generally make intelligent trades against order flow from everyone else. Stocks derive their value from the stream … [Read More...]
Why vaccines alone are not enough, how the UK government could mess things up again and which European country will eliminate COVID first?
Why has the UK government decided to apply serious travel restrictions to incomers because of COVID now, almost a year after the pandemic began? What took them so long, and what has changed? The obvious answer to the second question is vaccination and mutation. We don’t know how much the vaccines so far approved will stop people passing on the infection to others, but what evidence we have suggests there will be at least some dampening effect. Israel is likely to provide the first firm evidence on this. That will reduce R, the number of people one infected person passes the illness on to. What vaccines will certainly do is substantially reduce the chance of people getting ill from COVID. The danger is that, as vaccines are… [Read More...]
Debt and Taxes IV:This Time It’s Personal
It seems that many people have concerns about Larry Summers’s concerns about overdoing the Covid 19 Relief bill. My first reaction to his op-ed is here, but I realize that I had more nearly relevant things to say in the Debt and Taxes series and, in particular in debt and taxes I and debt and […] The post Debt and Taxes IV:This Time It’s Personal appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
The two sides of austerity.
I thought I’d use the FT’s mea culpa on austerity to make a point which is easily missed in public debate. Sustained austerity of the kind inflicted on the UK from 2010 until quite recently was terrible for two types of reason. The first, that most people focus on, are the cuts to government spending (shrinking the state) that went well beyond trimming any fat and caused real hardship. The second is macroeconomic. Cutting government spending in a recession is never a good idea, and when interest rates were stuck at zero it was a disaster. To highlight that distinction, I’m going to claim (with a few provisos) that the current Chancellor in this recession has so far not made the second, macroeconomic mistake. In that sense we… [Read More...]
Should You Become an Actuary?
Image credit: Word Cloud by Epic Top 10 || It is a great profession, but for most people, the exams are tough. Note: at the end of this article, there is a note on GameStop. Here’s a letter from a reader: David,I am a longtime reader of your blog, which I enjoy greatly. I will retire from the military in about three years and am considering becoming an actuary via self-study and taking the requisite exams. Given your experience in the field, I would like to ask you some questions:1. If I do this, will anyone hire me, or is this field one that strictly recruits new graduates from certain established schools? My degrees are in Chemical and Aeronautical Engineering (BS & MS respectively) if … [Read More...]
Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is ;up at Seeking Alpha. After many weeks of stability, there is some turmoil – in opposing directions – among the short leading indicators in particular. It is an indication of the bifurcated nature of the economy at […] The post Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Who caused our current COVID crisis: an example of public deception by the media and government
Let me start with what the public thinks: It is a straightforward question and the majority of the public give a clear answer. Unfortunately that majority are wrong. There is no doubt that the rise in COVID cases over the last month is a result of government failure. Let me set out what the government’s mistakes were. Having ended a lockdown that still left the level of cases pretty high, the government reverted to their Tier system. Much the same tier system that had led to the November lockdown in the first place. London was put in Tier 2. The warning signs were immediate. Cases started rising rapidly from the beginning of December. We now know why, but you didn’t need to know why (or be any kind… [Read More...]
Extending START
Extending START ;It is not a big headline story among all the other things newly inaugurated Joe Biden is doing, but it is being reported that despite a generally more hostile approach to Russia, he has agreed with what Russian President Putin has said he wants, which is to simply extend the current nuclear weapons […] The post Extending START appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Trump tries to incite a putsch, and his UK cheerleaders reveal their own contempt for democracy
It appears as if the Facebook ban on referencing this blog has been lifted. Many thanks to all those who complained to Facebook. I doubt I will ever know who persuaded them to ban it. Would be democratic dictators, elected heads of state who want to ensure they can never lose an election, should know the first rule to staying in power. It is to control a sufficient amount of the media. Convincing your faithful that the mainstream media is fake news is not enough. What that sufficient amount is will depend on many factors, including the voting system for President. It may be, for example, that given the advantagesa united right wing socially conservative party has in the UK, control of a majority of newspapers and … [Read More...]
Covid Vaccine Dosing Trials ?
I asked if, given the data collected in Phase III trials, it might be wise to delay second doses of the Pfizer and Moderna Covid 19 vaccines until supplies are ample. Since then the UK government has decided to give second doses three months after the first dose. The reason is explicitly to get first […] The post Covid Vaccine Dosing Trials ? appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Why the UK’s COVID crisis should be personal for so many Tory voters
There are around16 million over 60s living in the UK, nearly a quarter of the UK population. They are the most at risk from COVID: catching the virus could be a matter of life or death. To them the government’s handling, or rather mishandling, of the pandemic should be a matter of acute personal concern. It certainly is for me. Around60% of over 60s voted Conservative in the last election. The NHS is currently at breaking point. Tired and demoralised after almost a year of COVID, doctors and nurses find their hospitals are full and we haven’t yet seen the impact of Christmas and New Year. Whereas Johnson acted in March to save the NHS, this winter he decided to save Christmas instead, until he was… [Read More...]
Your Children Can’t Live Here Anymore
Photo Credit: Jason Thibault also massivekontent.com/ ||Urban Wasteland Before I write my piece this evening, I want to express and opinion that is unpopular to many of my friends. I think Trump lost fair and square. Since Trump is a greater liar than even Bill Clinton, he continues to protest, but with no significant data, only allegations. Here’s my quick summary. In the four states that were the smallest wins for Biden (AZ, GA, PA & WI), the state Republican parties generally did not allege any major voting fraud. They may not have liked the concept of mail-in voting and/or increased absentee voting, and they might want to curtail those methods of voting, but given that those were the rules prior to the … [Read More...]
Libertarian David Henderson on Trump
Yesterday, David Henderson, a libertarian economist associated with Hoover and econlib, had a post at econlib suggesting that Trump has been unfairly accused of fomenting violence. I was going to stick a link to Henderson’s piece in the comments to my earlier post on the libertarian reaction to storming of the Capitol. But when I […] The post Libertarian David Henderson on Trump appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
It is inevitable that Labour in opposition will not be a champion of social liberalism
Trump has been defeated, but only just. Trump, that most ludicrous and destructive of US presidents, still won 46.8% of the vote. More importantly, the number of votes between Biden and Trump in the Electoral College was very small. Voters still turned out for a Repubican party that backed Trump all the way. Perhaps worst of all, the aftermath of the election showed that the Republican party backed Trump’s attempts to overturn democracy. What Republicans do on a smaller scale with gerrymandering they are happy to do at a national level. The future of the US is still very uncertain when one of the two main parties does not respect democracy. The Conservative party in the UK is only beginning down that particular route, with its plansfor… [Read More...]
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