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The momentum for fiscal stimulus is building

March 15, 2020 by jsblokland

The momentum for fiscal stimulus is building

US President Trump is calling for a payroll tax relief until after the US elections. Australia just announced a EUR 11 billion package to counter the adverse impact of the coronavirus. The European Commission set up a fund yesterday with EUR 25 billion to tackle to economic shock caused by the virus. The UK raised already anticipated fiscal stimulus by another GBP 18 billion. And these are just a selection of the number of measures that is being announced. Most measures are, however, disappointingly limited. The European Commission’s investment fund represents just 0.2% of GDP, and are taken from existing resources. Hence, the reluctance of governments to really open the tabs increases the odd of a global recession. Forecasts for 2020 GDP growth are around 2.0% (2.4% by the OECD) … [Read More...]

Is the strength of the US consumer overrated?

February 9, 2020 by jsblokland

Is the strength of the US consumer overrated?

The US consumer, which represents a bigger share of global GDP than China’s economy, has been the main driver of US GDP growth in recent quarters. Spurred by job and wage growth, consumer spending has been robust. And from a top-down perspective, there are few signs that this is about to change. However, some underlying factors suggest that weaknesses in US consumer spending are starting to appear. For example, in recent weeks, initial jobless claims started to rise gradually to levels that could raise the question if we have seen the bottom in unemployment. Last week, however, initial jobless claims fell from 228K to 213K, and also lower than expected making it difficult to conclude initial jobless claims are on an ascending path. Yet it is… [Read More...]

Today’s Trade: Aussie shares tread water

July 7, 2019 by

Today’s Trade: Aussie shares tread water

The Australian equity market has moved cautiously up in early trading with investors not sure how to deal with the tech losses in the US [Read More...]

Squawk: EURUSD hunting for 1.1500 by Stephen Pope EURUSD began last…

June 16, 2019 by MarketChartist

Squawk: EURUSD hunting for 1.1500 by Stephen Pope EURUSD began last…

EURUSD hunting for 1.1500 by Stephen Pope EURUSD began last week in the ascendency reaching 1.1740 This broke down as the week drew on The EURUSD pair is riddled with bearish sentiment The… [Read More...]

Squawk: EUR/USD – Speculators Increasingly Dollar Bullish by Stephen Pope Dollar…

June 9, 2019 by MarketChartist

Squawk: EUR/USD – Speculators Increasingly Dollar Bullish by Stephen Pope Dollar…

EUR/USD – Speculators Increasingly Dollar Bullish by Stephen Pope Dollar bulls are in full cry The strength of the Dollar will continue even after mixed jobs data There was no Euro gain on Friday… [Read More...]

Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns

May 12, 2019 by jsblokland

Yield curve inversion, recessions and asset class returns

The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve is perhaps the most reliable recession indicator out there. But what does an inverted yield curve tell us about future returns? Our analysis shows that while asset class returns in general are somewhat subdued between the first date on which the yield curve inverts and the start of the recession, the inversion of the yield curve is not followed by extraordinary deviations in returns. Definition Before moving over to the results of our analysis, we would like to dwell briefly on the definition of the yield curve, and the combination of maturities in particular. In most empirical … [Read More...]

Squawk: EURUSD Still stumbles at the 200-day MA by Stephen Pope…

March 31, 2019 by MarketChartist

Squawk: EURUSD Still stumbles at the 200-day MA by Stephen Pope…

EURUSD Still stumbles at the 200-day MA by Stephen Pope The Euro was the weakest currency on Friday The EURUSD cannot break above to 200-Day Moving Average There may a small bounce on Monday morning… [Read More...]

Squawk: USDJPY Could Bounce Lower off the 200-day Moving Average by…

March 3, 2019 by MarketChartist

Squawk: USDJPY Could Bounce Lower off the 200-day Moving Average by…

USDJPY Could Bounce Lower off the 200-day Moving Average by Stephen Pope USDJPY prices look set to break lower as sellers will appear at the 200dma The Japanese economy is stronger than has been… [Read More...]

Squawk: Stock indices remain vulnerable to corrective losses Global share markets…

February 17, 2019 by MarketChartist

Squawk: Stock indices remain vulnerable to corrective losses Global share markets…

Stock indices remain vulnerable to corrective losses Global share markets suffered significant corrective losses from the middle of the last week although these setbacks are currently viewed as… [Read More...]

Macro Monday week 35: Less equals more

January 6, 2019 by Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Monday week 35: Less equals more

In this webcast Saxo’s global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen examines the big issues for the week and looks for potential market moves. [Read More...]

The Confident Consumer

November 25, 2018 by jsblokland

The Confident Consumer

US consumer confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, and has now reached an 18-year high. But while this is certainly an impressive milestone, the sharp increase hasn’t really come as a surprise. There are many positive economic signs that should ensure US consumers remain a key driver of economic growth in the coming quarters. A number of factors are contributing to the supreme level of confidence among US consumers. One of the most important is the labor market, where unemployment has fallen to 3.7% – the lowest level since 1969. Moreover, the latest labor market figures emphasize the US economy’s role as a job creation machine. Another 250,000 jobs were added in October, exceeding expectations. It is now eight years since payrolls fell during a… [Read More...]

Turkey’s currency crisis – what you should know

September 9, 2018 by jsblokland

Turkey’s currency crisis – what you should know

The Turkish lira has taken a heavy pounding recently as investors have started to doubt the country’s creditworthiness and economic outlook. At the time of writing, the value of the currency has collapsed to 0.16 against the USD – down almost 40% since the beginning of this year. Sentiment has soured towards the lira, pushing the currency to a series of record lows and sending a shockwave through the financial markets. In this week’s ‘Graph of the week’ I provide an overview of the potential impact of Turkey’s currency crisis. Turkey Obviously, the sharp depreciation of the lira is having a profound impact on Turkey itself. Currency weakening has a number of adverse effects, which can easily result in negative feedback loops. First, the lira’s dramatic fall will … [Read More...]

Squawk: Jackson Hole speech by Fed’s Powell. The initial focus seems…

August 26, 2018 by John J Hardy

Squawk: Jackson Hole speech by Fed’s Powell. The initial focus seems…

Jackson Hole speech by Fed’s Powell. The initial focus seems to be on Powell’s comment that there no signs of inflation pickup accelerating now that it has risen above 2% and there are no signs of… [Read More...]

Week End Blog – (im)patience & middle fingers

April 12, 2015 by Jeroen Blokland

Week End Blog – (im)patience & middle fingers

“Just because we removed the word ‘patient’ from the statement doesn’t mean we are going to be impatient,” Clever words found by Fed boss Yellen to make sure that investors are not getting to anxious about future rate hikes. But it was the ‘dot plot’ that really did the job. FOMC participants significantly lowered their projections for what is the appropriate level of the federal funds rate for the coming years. Hence, lower rates for longer. Mind you, markets expect the Fed to take it even more easy than the new dots imply. Markets expect the #Fed to take it even slower than the dots. Nice chart via @davidmwessel http://t.co/Mo9iqwfQO0— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 19, 2015 The dovish message by the Fed … [Read More...]

Bitcoin news

PARSIQ Integrates Solana Blockchain on its Platform

February 28, 2021 by Bitcoin PR Buzz Feed

Bitcoin cannot replace the banks

February 28, 2021 by

Another CoinSwap milestone: Multi-hop CoinSwaps. Undetectable bitcoin privacy is being built

February 28, 2021 by ubelcher_

  • Blackcoin Pairs Added To Bittrex, And Other News
  • Bitcoin Is Now a Trillion-Dollar Asset: Where Do We Go From Here?
  • Despite The Bitcoin Price Dip, This Week Was Incredibly Bullish
  • Bitcoin Achieving MASSIVE Global Recognition | This Week in Crypto – Feb 22, 2021
  • Venture Capital Fund Yolo Invests in Digital Marketing Specialists eCartic
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Last updated: 5 minutes ago

Bitcoin Exchange Chart

Daily Forex Signals

EURGBP, Expecting Bearish Movement

February 28, 2021 by R.Roy

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Huge spike for GBP

February 28, 2021 by

Midday Forex Prediction For February 26, 2021

February 28, 2021 by GainScope

  • NFP and Forex: What is NFP and How to Trade It?
  • NZDCAD, Expecting Bullish Movement
  • Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 15 February 2021
  • Midday Forex Prediction For February 19, 2021
  • Gold Versus Real Yields: Are Inflation Bets Fully Priced Into XAU/USD?

Financial Markets Breaking News

Live currencies

Live Exchange Rates

Forex Research & Tech. Analysis

Selling Intensifies

February 28, 2021 by

Day 3 of $QQQ short term down-trend; $SQQQ shines, up 10.6%; GMI declines to 3 (of 6)

February 28, 2021 by Dr. Wish

BANK NIFTY Crashes 2000 points on Astro Date

February 28, 2021 by Bramesh

  • Interest Cycles
  • Market Insights Podcast (Episode 169)
  • Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC could try to reclaim $50K as selloff loses momentum at key support
  • Morning Post 02/26/2021 SPX
  • USD/CAD – Heading For a Correction?

Macro Economics

Two paths to controlling COVID with vaccinations

February 28, 2021 by Mainly Macro

January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat

February 28, 2021 by NewDealdemocrat

COVID-19, experts and the media

February 21, 2021 by Mainly Macro

  • We Need a Plan for Militias
  • Media radicalisation in the US and UK
  • Economic insecurity, redux
  • Why vaccines alone are not enough, how the UK government could mess things up again and which European country will eliminate COVID first?
  • What Game Are You Playing?

Stocks Markets

Subs: Innovative

February 28, 2021 by ToddSullivan

Cara Mudah Login Olymp Trade

February 28, 2021 by admin

‘Love & Hip Hop’: Has Karlie Redd Forgiven Sierra Gates?

February 28, 2021 by Trey Mangum

  • Bull Case for REITs-and Home Buying
  • Iranian security official accuses U.S. of trying to ‘revive’ organized terrorism with Syrian airstrikes
  • TGIF – The Weak Ends Just in Time
  • Sold MJ Naked Puts
  • Subs: Out
  • Top Insider Buys Highlight for the Week of Feb. 19

Equities

What Is a Butterfly Spread Option Strategy?

February 28, 2021 by Daniels Trading

EM Sovereign Debt 2014: Neither Phoenix nor Failure

February 28, 2021 by

Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends

February 28, 2021 by Chris Vermeulen

  • Week To Forget But A Month To Remember
  • Turner’s Take Podcast | Ag Forum Bullish Chinese Corn Demand
  • Thinking Outside the Emerging-Markets Box
  • Yellen Calls For More Stimulus
  • Disney – 146 Million Streaming Juggernaut

Business News

Daniel Loeb’s Third Point Bets on Topeka Sam’s Criminal Justice Group

February 28, 2021 by Michael J. de la Merced

Webinar Will Help You Get Your Business Started

February 28, 2021 by Small Business Editor

Testing for COVID-19 has declined. Experts worry it’s too soon for the US to let its guard down.

February 28, 2021 by

  • 5 Most Successful Video Marketing Tactics Brands Are Using to Grab Eyeballs and Convert Customers
  • Second Former Aide Accuses Cuomo of Sexual Harassment – The New York Times
  • All About the DealBook DC Policy Project
  • Robots Aren’t Stealing Jobs — They’re Making Them Better
  • Upcoming Webinar Reveals the Best States to Incorporate

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