The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for December, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. Stocks peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In November 2020, it estimated stocks dropped by 34 million barrels to end at 3.057 billion, 169 […] The post World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, December 2020 appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Commodities and Cryptos Update: Oil surges, Gold and Bitcoin pare this week’s gains
Oil Crude prices are rising again as Moderna’s COVID vaccine is poised to get vaccine authorization from the FDA. Successful vaccine execution is what is needed to send WTI crude well above the $50 level and that is unlikely to happen for months. The virus spread across the US is going to test hospital capacity over a few states and that should see lockdowns extended throughout the next couple of months. New York City is on the verge of another shutdown after Governor Cuomo tweeted that NY had 12,697 new COVID cases, the most since the pandemic started. Gold Gold got its groove back after the Fed signaled traders should continue to expect QE for a long time and as Congress inches toward a fiscal stimulus deal. Gold … [Read More...]
Risks remain to the downside for oil and gold
Oil back under pressure Oil couldn’t hang on to earlier gains, slipping back into negative territory as the session wore on. WTI is closing in on $35 again and further losses are looking likely. The next key level is $33, a particular area of interest back in May when crude was trading around these levels.This also coincides with $35 in Brent, a break of which could be the tipping point as far as OPEC+ are concerned. There’s a couple of weeks until the next JMMC meeting and the next full meeting of OPEC and its allies isn’t until the end of November/start of December. Can they afford to wait that long? A move back towards $30 may force them to act sooner, … [Read More...]
US Close: Debate Aftermath, January Stimulus, PMIs, Euro rally faded, Oil declines, Gold slightly higher
US stocks gave up early gains after White House Advisor Kudlow provided no optimism a stimulus deal would get done before the election or even by the end of the year. The Markit PMI readings showed the US economy remains on strong footing. Manufacturing PMI ticked higher while the services component rose more-than-expected. The slowdown in hiring and weaker new order inflows was attributed to election uncertainty. Choppy markets will likely persist until a clearer picture emerges for the Election Day outcome. Equities turned negative after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin voiced pessimism over reaching a deal, noting that there are still significant differences. Debate Aftermath It is all about the Senate Race. President Trump had a strong performance in the final and civil debate, but it … [Read More...]
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 133)
Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Nick Howard looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam. [Read More...]
Week Ahead – Let the debates begin!
Prepare for turbulence For a long time we’ve been warned that the final months of the year will be extremely eventful and if recent weeks are anything to go by, that may be an understatement. With the US election fast approaching, Covid on the rise again and Brexit negotiations reaching a critical point, financial markets are about to get very interesting, indeed. Trump and Biden face off in first debate Brexit talks hitting critical stage Dollar resurgence tarnishes gold outlook Country US The labor market recovery is stalling, and pressure continues to grow for Congress to provide more support. The September nonfarm payroll report will be the last jobs report before the presidential election. Most leading indicators show the joblessness issue is about to get worse. … [Read More...]
Subs: Permian Leading The Way
The Permian basin is leading the rebound in oil drilling as prices rebound. This is good news for TPL and probably a good reason Horizon […] [Read More...]
Week Ahead – Economic Reopening Continues
Key Economic Events Monday 6th July Time (UK) Country Relevance Indicator Name Period 01:30 Hong Kong Medium IHS Markit PMI Jun 09:30 United Kingdom Medium Markit/CIPS Cons PMI Jun 10:00 Euro Zone Medium Retail Sales MM May 10:00 Euro Zone Medium Retail Sales YY May 14:45 United States High Markit Comp Final PMI Jun 14:45 United States High Markit Svcs PMI Final Jun 15:00 United States High ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun Tuesday 7th July 05:30 Australia High RBA Cash Rate Jul 07:00 Czech Republic Medium Unemployment Rate Jun 08:00 Czech Republic Medium Industrial Output YY May 08:00 Czech Republic Medium Trade Balance May 15:00 United States Medium JOLTS Job Openings May 21:30 United States Not Rated API weekly crude stocks 29 Jun, w/e Wednesday 8th July 06:45 Switzerland Medium Unemployment Rate Adj Jun 07:00 Norway Medium GDP Month May 08:00 Czech … [Read More...]
US Crude Soars 8% As OPEC Reaches Agreement
Crude oil futures are soaring at the end of the holiday-shortened trading week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to slash output levels. Global financial markets paid close attention to the meeting because it would have either sparked a huge rally or sent crude prices crashing. With US output falling and OPEC and its allies cutting production, could oil rebound to $40 this month? June West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures surged $2.17, or 7.19%, to $32.34 per barrel at 14:51 GMT on Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices are poised for a huge weekly gain of 20%, paring their year-to-date losses to 45%. Brent, the international benchmark, is also posting a big jump to … [Read More...]
US Crude Adds to Gains, Enjoys Best Weekly Gain in History
Crude oil futures are enjoying their best week in history as investors are anticipating the major producers to slash output levels amid the coronavirus pandemic. US crude prices posted another huge session of gains, adding to its weekly jump and paring its immense 2020 losses. Will Saudi Arabia and Russia follow through on what President Donald Trump told the press this week? May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures surged $3.13, or 12.36%, to $28.45 per barrel at 18:59 GMT on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices are poised for an immense weekly spike of 30%, marking the best five-day performance in history. Year-to-date, US crude is still down 53%. Brent, the international benchmark for oil prices, is up slightly at the … [Read More...]
OANDA Market Insights – Episode 103 (Podcast)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the week’s business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart. This week they discuss the stock market after it suffered its worst week since the global financial crisis, next week’s OPEC+ meeting, Chinese PMIs and the BoC and RBA meetings. [Read More...]
Crude Oil Gains on Geopolitical Tensions in Middle East
Futures for crude oil climbed today as tensions in the Middle East grew. Yesterday, the United States reported that the US navy downed Iranian drone, but Tehran denied that. Today, news hit the market that Iran seized a British oil tanker. That is likely a response to the seizure of Iranian tanker by the UK earlier this month. Adding to the positive factors for crude was the oil rig count released by Baker Hughes today. It showed a drop of oil rigs by 5 to 779 this week. The number of gas rigs increased by 2 to 174. Futures for WTI crude oil gained 1.41% to $56.08 per barrel as of 20:01 GMT on NYMEX today. September contract for Brent crude jumped 1.97% to $63.15 per barrel on ICE. Over the week … [Read More...]
Crude Oil Gets Support from Range of Positive Factors
Futures for Brent crude oil logged significant gains today. The West Texas Intermediate grade posted losses but has managed to rebound by now. There were several factors that helped the commodity. Some analysts speculated that better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls buoyed the commodity. While the report boosted the dollar, hurting commodities priced in the US currency, it sent a positive signal about economic growth, and that was helpful to crude. Oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped to the lowest level since 2014 as US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela helped to offset rising production in Saudi Arabia. Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count decrease by 5 to 788 this week. Yet US oil production increased by almost 1.2 million barrels per day, year-… [Read More...]
Crude Gains More than 2% on Range of Positive Factors
Crude oil rallied more than 2% today. The commodity was benefiting from the same reasons as some other raw materials — the weakness of the US dollar that followed abysmal US employment data and speculations about interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. But crude also had its own bullish factors. One of them were signals from Saudi Arabia that the OPEC+ production cut deal will be extended till the end of the year, with Russia remaining in the agreement. Another one was the oil rig count from Baker Hughes that showed a decline of the number of US oil rigs by 11 to 789 this week. Contract for delivery of WTI crude oil in July jumped as much as 2.66% to trade at $53.99 per barrel as of 22:14 … [Read More...]
Crude Gains on US NFP, Heads to Weekly Losses on US Inventories
Crude oil rose a bit today but was still heading to weekly losses. Crude managed to carve out gains with help of US nonfarm payrolls. While the solid employment figure hurt gold, it also helped commodities linked to growth. Baker Hughes reported that US drilling firms increased the number of oil rigs by 2 last week. But that was not nearly enough to offset the previous week’s slump by 20 rigs, which put the total number of rigs to the lowest level in more than a year. The real culprit responsible for this week’s losses of the commodity was the US oil inventories data. A report from the Energy Information Administration showed an increase of the stockpiles by as much as 9.9 million barrels last week, which was … [Read More...]
Crude Oil Ends Week with Losses, Natural Gas Surges
Crude oil prices fell on Friday and ended the week with about 3% loss. Market specialists had different views on why crude declined. Some blamed poor US macroeconomic data, which signals about potential decrease in demand. Others pointed at recent sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves as the main negative factor for crude. There was also positive news for the commodity. Baker Hughes reported that US firms decreased the number of oil rigs by 10 last week. Now, the total count stands at 843 — the lowest since May 2018. Contract for delivery of WTI crude oil in April slumped as much as 2.57% to $55.75 per barrel as of 22:33 GMT on NYMEX today. Brent crude for delivery in May tumbled 2.02% to $64.97 per barrel on ICE. At the … [Read More...]
Crude Oil Ends Friday with Big Gains
Prices for crude oil rallied strongly today. Market analysts named several factors probably responsible for the rally. Most experts pointed at the US sanctions against Venezuela as the major reason for the gains of crude. Another one was the sharp drop of output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Some analysts speculated that the strong employment growth and the expansion of the manufacturing sector in the United States also contributed to the rally of oil prices. The oil rigs count from Baker Hughes likely contributed to the rising prices as well. The agency reported that US drillers reduced the number of oil rigs by 15 this week. The decline offset the previous week’s increase of 10. Futures for delivery of WTI crude oil in March rallied 2.88% … [Read More...]
Positive Fundamentals Lead to Daily & Weekly Gains for Crude Oil
Prices for crude oil rallied strongly on Friday due to a range of positive fundamental factors. The commodity was also heading to weekly gains. One of such factors was the rumor that the United States are considering lifting additional tariffs on Chinese imports. While US officials denied such plans, markets remained in the risk-on mode. Together with China’s plans to stimulate growth, chances for an end to the Sino-US trade war promise stable demand from the world’s second biggest economy and a major consumer of oil. Adding to the bullish momentum of crude was yesterday’s report that showed a decrease of OPEC oil production by 751,000 barrels per day to 31.6 million bpd in December. Saudi Arabia cut its output by 468,000 bpd to just … [Read More...]
Crude Oil Volatile Ahead of Weekend, Heads to End Week with Loss
Prices for crude oil were rather volatile today. Initially, crude was following global stocks in decline, trading near the lowest levels since the third quarter of 2017 and heading to end the week with about 10% loss. The commodity and equities often move hand-in-hand because both are risk-sensitive assets. And today the market sentiment was negative towards risk. North American crude reversed losses later, but only to fall back down afterwards, while world’s benchmark Brent grade did not stop its downward movement at all. Market analysts speculated that prices for oil were collapsing because traders did not think that the OPEC+ production cuts will be enough to compensate for increasing supply from the United States and to erase global glut. To counter that, Saudi … [Read More...]
Crude Oil Falls Further Even as US Drillers Reduce Number of Oil Rigs
Crude oil extended its previous losses today, heading to end the session with more than 2% decline. Prices continued to sink even as US drillers decreased the number of oil rigs for the second week in a row. Baker Hughes reported that the oil rig count fell by 4 this week. At 873, the number of rigs was the lowest since October but higher than a year ago. Energy firms were reducing the number of active rigs in a response to the collapse of oil prices last month. Despite the news, the negative market sentiment continued to weigh on the commodity. Lackluster economic data in the eurozone and China led to concerns about global growth. And performance of crude usually directly linked to growth as growing economy means higher … [Read More...]