US stocks are weakened as mounting inflation risks continue to drive Fed rate hike bets. ? The Nasdaq is getting hit the hardest as yields are moving higher again. ? Energy costs are rising and disinflation trends are about to have a rude awakening next week. ? Traders are fearful that the Valentine’s day inflation report will vindicate the Fed’s stance that ongoing rate increases will continue. US data The University of Michigan Sentiment report showed a headline improvement to 66.4, the best levels in over a year. ? Current conditions impressed, while expectations worsened. ? What caught everyone’s attention was the surge with 1-year inflation expectations. ? The key gauge for inflation a year out, rose from 3.9% to 4.2%. ? The economy is still looking good, … [Read More...]
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 419)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed inflation drivers, bank earnings, oil markets, Bitcoin’s breakout, and the week ahead. [Read More...]
Oil bouncing back, gold pushing on, bitcoin steady
Risks tilted to the upside? Oil markets are bouncing back in another volatile session at the end of the year. Going into 2023, the risks are arguably tilted to the upside, although that has been the narrative for much of the year and yet we’re on course to end it not far from where we started. While producers have finally caught up with post-pandemic demand, other risks remain next year, notably Russian output amid the new price cap and its threats to cut output and not supply any countries abiding by it. That isn’t a problem now but if prices do start rising, that could accelerate the move quickly. Gold lacking momentum Gold is pushing higher again on Friday but once more it lacks the … [Read More...]
“Administration Desperate…..”
“Davidson” submits: The Baker Hughes Rig Count is unchanged. Harold Hamm who just completed the take-private of his Continental Energy commented on the current state of the oil industry: “This Venezuelan deal, that’s a good example of the desperation that this administration is dealing with,” Hamm said, referring to the administration’s attempts to rein in inflation at the pump. “They know what they did. They know they took the federal lands off the table,” Continental Resources’ CEO told the FT in an interview. “They know better and shame on them…?They want to put oil and gas out of business.” Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com The current pace of US crude production has remained flat nearly 6mos with SPR releases… [Read More...]
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 371)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the US jobs report, 24-year high in USDJPY, oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and Nord Stream 1. [Read More...]
Subs: Not Just Oil Now
What I really like here is the company taking steps to add more value to the land it owns. There is no reason they have […] [Read More...]
Oil Inventory Keeps Falling
We are getting to really concerning levels….another geopolitical shock in an oil-producing nation that disrupts oil production and the globe has a serious issue “Davidson” […] [Read More...]
The SPR Reserves Continue to Fall to 2003 Levels
; “Davidson” submits: US Crude Prod 11.7mil BBL/Day unchanged vs last week, Total US Crude Inv 0.8mil BBL lower (working inv 0.5mi BBL higher & […] [Read More...]
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 279)
Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York. This week they discuss the mixed nonfarm payroll report, FOMC rate and balance sheet expectations, what was behind the moves with oil’s strong price rally, and the poor first week of trade for cryptos. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets. [Read More...]
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 259)
Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York. This week they discuss the impressive nonfarm payroll report, the FOMC taper announcment that did not trigger a tantrum, the surprising BOE hold, and the OPEC+ meeting. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets. [Read More...]
Inflation, Weighting and Valuations All Positive for Energy Names
; ; “Davidson” submits: The Baker Hughes Rig Count is higher by 5 oil rigs with the gas rig count unchanged. This represents 138% rise […] [Read More...]
Subs: Oil’s Landlord
As expected, strong earnings and the future looks good as I don’t see oil prices retreating much barring another round of COVID national shutdowns which […] [Read More...]
Subs: Energy Supply to Remain Restricted
I believe this thought process is correct. Oil and gas are not going anywhere in most of our lifetimes and to think we can easily […] [Read More...]
World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, December 2020
The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for December, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. Stocks peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In November 2020, it estimated stocks dropped by 34 million barrels to end at 3.057 billion, 169 […] The post World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, December 2020 appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Commodities and Cryptos Update: Oil surges, Gold and Bitcoin pare this week’s gains
Oil Crude prices are rising again as Moderna’s COVID vaccine is poised to get vaccine authorization from the FDA. Successful vaccine execution is what is needed to send WTI crude well above the $50 level and that is unlikely to happen for months. The virus spread across the US is going to test hospital capacity over a few states and that should see lockdowns extended throughout the next couple of months. New York City is on the verge of another shutdown after Governor Cuomo tweeted that NY had 12,697 new COVID cases, the most since the pandemic started. Gold Gold got its groove back after the Fed signaled traders should continue to expect QE for a long time and as Congress inches toward a fiscal stimulus deal. Gold … [Read More...]
Risks remain to the downside for oil and gold
Oil back under pressure Oil couldn’t hang on to earlier gains, slipping back into negative territory as the session wore on. WTI is closing in on $35 again and further losses are looking likely. The next key level is $33, a particular area of interest back in May when crude was trading around these levels.This also coincides with $35 in Brent, a break of which could be the tipping point as far as OPEC+ are concerned. There’s a couple of weeks until the next JMMC meeting and the next full meeting of OPEC and its allies isn’t until the end of November/start of December. Can they afford to wait that long? A move back towards $30 may force them to act sooner, … [Read More...]
US Close: Debate Aftermath, January Stimulus, PMIs, Euro rally faded, Oil declines, Gold slightly higher
US stocks gave up early gains after White House Advisor Kudlow provided no optimism a stimulus deal would get done before the election or even by the end of the year. The Markit PMI readings showed the US economy remains on strong footing. Manufacturing PMI ticked higher while the services component rose more-than-expected. The slowdown in hiring and weaker new order inflows was attributed to election uncertainty. Choppy markets will likely persist until a clearer picture emerges for the Election Day outcome. Equities turned negative after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin voiced pessimism over reaching a deal, noting that there are still significant differences. Debate Aftermath It is all about the Senate Race. President Trump had a strong performance in the final and civil debate, but it … [Read More...]
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 133)
Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Nick Howard looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam. [Read More...]
Week Ahead – Let the debates begin!
Prepare for turbulence For a long time we’ve been warned that the final months of the year will be extremely eventful and if recent weeks are anything to go by, that may be an understatement. With the US election fast approaching, Covid on the rise again and Brexit negotiations reaching a critical point, financial markets are about to get very interesting, indeed. Trump and Biden face off in first debate Brexit talks hitting critical stage Dollar resurgence tarnishes gold outlook Country US The labor market recovery is stalling, and pressure continues to grow for Congress to provide more support. The September nonfarm payroll report will be the last jobs report before the presidential election. Most leading indicators show the joblessness issue is about to get worse. … [Read More...]
Subs: Permian Leading The Way
The Permian basin is leading the rebound in oil drilling as prices rebound. This is good news for TPL and probably a good reason Horizon […] [Read More...]