Following this week’s dramatic events, Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart speaks to OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam in London  and Ed Moya in New York.  They cover the stock market sell-off, oil price crash, BoE rate cut, UK budget, ECB and US response to the coronavirus. [Read More...]

The Canadian dollar ended flat on Friday. Trade hopes were diminished when Chinese officials cancelled off a farm visit as part of the restart of negotiations. The trade talks did not get to a great start if the delegation cut short their trip to the United States. Safe havens rose at the end of the week as trade uncertainty is on the rise. Risk events to watch during the weekend include Middle East tensions, possible Brexit developments and now a setback in US-China trade talks. Canadian retail sales came in lower than expected and as data deteriorates it piles on the pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates sooner rather than later. Employment has bought the central bank time as the Fed cut … [Read More...]

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.   Atlanta Fed [Read More...]

The US dollar is lower against most major pairs except the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Risk appetite made a comeback this week and pushed the three currencies lower as investors shied away from safe havens. A strong start to the US earnings season with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo leading the way triggered optimism despite global growth warning from the IMF earlier in the week. Central banks were muted this week as dovish rhetoric continues to be the norm. Brexit will be around for longer as an extension until October 31 as the two major parties discuss cooperation that would bring about a softer exit. More time means less pressure on the pound, the currency rose 0.34 this week after the new timeline was announced. GBP – … [Read More...]

The global equity rally continues to be bolstered by optimism that the trade war could finally see a framework agreement.  The US also avoided a second government shutdown as President Trump accepted the deal lawmakers worked on, only to declare a national emergency to secure additional funds for his border wall funding. The S&P 500 rose to a 10-week high as trade talks continued to make constructive progress this week and US consumer sentiment showed signs of stabilizing.  The main driver for equities remains the trade story and while global growth concerns are the other key risk, the current backdrop of accommodative stances with the Fed, PBOC, and ECB, may make it difficult to derail the bullish argument.   The US dollar continues to whipsaw on risk-off … [Read More...]

Safe-haven currencies soared on Friday as disappointing data from China and Europe heightened concerns over global growth. The greenback finished the week stronger against its major trading partners as investor eagerly await Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision and updated economic projections. The majority of economists expect the benchmark federal-funds rate to be raised by 25 basis points. Most will focus on any downgrades we see on the economic projections and clarity if the risks on housing and the global economy are starting to weigh on their outlook. The recent wave of global headwinds led many analysts to downgrade their outlook on Fed tightening for 2019, with some calling for only one or two rate rises. At the September meeting the Fed forecasted three rate increases in 2019, they … [Read More...]