After a year of single-digit sales growth, Rivian expects its deliveries to soar in 2026.
Though electric vehicle company Rivian‘s (RIVN 7.16%) stock jumped last week after it reported better-than-expected revenue and strong full-year guidance, the growth stock is still down about 15% year to date.
For the most part, the stock’s poor performance is understandable. After all, the company’s fourth-quarter revenue fell sharply, declining 26% year over year to about $1.3 billion.
But there have been some positives. Rivian’s fourth-quarter non-generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP) loss per share was narrower than analysts’ consensus forecast for the key bottom-line metric. Even more, management provided guidance for a huge year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries as it prepares to begin delivering its new mid-size all-electric SUV, the R2, next quarter.
With management expecting rapid growth in deliveries in 2026, is the stock’s recent pullback a buying opportunity? Or is the stock too risky at this level?
Image source: Rivian.
A disappointing 2025
For Rivian, 2025 was fairly rocky. In the second quarter of 2025, Rivian’s automotive revenue declined year over year, from $1.074 billion in the second quarter of 2024 to $927 million. But Rivian’s fortunes reversed dramatically in Q3 when third-quarter revenue rose 78% year over year to nearly $1.6 billion. Though this period was notably heavily influenced by the timing of the expiration of an electric vehicle tax credit, which pulled forward demand into the period.
This pull-forward in demand in Q3 helps explain Rivian’s 26% year-over-year decrease in revenue in Q4.
But even when you smooth out Rivian’s sales trends by looking at the company’s results on an annual basis, its 8% year-over-year revenue increase last year isn’t particularly impressive given the stock’s expensive valuation. Shares command a market capitalization of about $20.5 billion as of this writing despite Rivian reporting a net loss of about $3.6 billion in 2025 and negative free cash flow of $2.5 billion.
These aren’t exactly the type of figures investors look for in a growth stock.
Rivian’s revenue growth should accelerate in 2026
2026, however, should be a better year for Rivian’s underlying business.
Starting with its vehicle deliveries, management said it expected to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year. The midpoint of this guidance range implies a year-over-year growth rate of 53%.
And the midpoint of the company’s guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also notably calls for a year-over-year improvement. The fact that management expects any improvement in its adjusted EBITDA is impressive since 2026 will be a year marked by scaling a new vehicle — and vehicle production ramps typically weigh on earnings early on.
Management said in its fourth-quarter shareholder letter that its new R2 should dramatically reduce “manufacturing complexity and vehicle cost.”
And Rivian believes that, with the R2, it will be well-positioned to expand its addressable market and grow sales.
“With the average new vehicle purchase price in the United States at just over $50,000, and the most popular configuration being a 5-seat SUV or crossover,” management explained in Rivian’s fourth-quarter shareholder letter, “we believe R2 will be addressing an attractive market segment with a great daily driver that delivers on the adventurous spirit customers expect from Rivian.”
Today’s Change
(-7.16%) $-1.27
Current Price
$16.46
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$22B
Day’s Range
$16.39 – $17.64
52wk Range
$10.36 – $22.69
Volume
1.8M
Avg Vol
39M
Gross Margin
-276.59%
Is Rivian stock a buy?
With 2026 looking like a year of rapid growth and improved financial efficiency for Rivian, is now a good time to buy the stock?
I think staying on the sidelines makes sense when it comes to Rivian stock. While 2026, in and of itself, looks like a big year for the company, questions remain about Rivian’s longer-term potential. The automotive industry is notoriously competitive. Not only is Rivian up against other electric vehicle companies, but it also has to compete with much larger auto industry incumbents who could ramp up their electric vehicle programs if the opportunity becomes more attractive. My answer might be different if the stock were cheaper. But with a market capitalization of about $20.5 billion, investors are already pricing in strong sales growth and a swing to substantial profits.
