Despite a week filled with lots of important news, mortgage rates did absolutely nothing all week.
Which might speak to them being more entrenched at current levels.
Or reinforce the idea that we’ll see “flat” mortgage rates in 2026.
Whatever the theory, it doesn’t appear we’ll see a ton of movement in rates this year.
Though there is still the AI wildcard. And a new Fed chair. So plenty can still happen.
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Despite Tariff Drama and Higher Inflation
Perhaps a few things cancelled each other out. Maybe that’s the reason mortgage rates had a super boring week despite all the news.
By Mortgage News Daily’s measure, the 30-year fixed began the holiday-shortened week at 6.04%. And ended the holiday-shortened week at 6.04%.
In other words, absolutely nothing happened with mortgage rates all week, which is pretty rare.
Interestingly though, there was plenty happening during the week, including a PCE inflation report that came in hot.
By the way, the PCE report is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, so it carries a lot of weight.
We also had a Supreme Court ruling that reversed the tariffs, which were said to and proven to cause inflation.
That’s an interesting one though because on the one hand tariffs are said to cause inflation. But on the other the tariff revenue could reduce our debt or at least lessen Treasury bond issuance.
With fewer bonds to absorb, we could have lower bond yields, which would equate to lower mortgage rates.
GDP Comes in Low and Labor Continues to Look Okay
Other than those tariff questions, we also got GDP, which came in super low, but could be attributed to the government shutdown.
That kind of speaks to all the noise in the data at the moment, thanks to the shutdown and tariffs.
It’s easy to make excuses for things if they don’t look good, at least for now.
There was also the weekly jobless claims report, which came in below expectations, pointing to continued resiliency in the labor market.
Again, for now, despite fears that AI could take out a lot of jobs and cause unemployment to surge.
Lastly, sprinkle in some geopolitical uncertainty with a military buildup near Iran and there’s a lot going on at the moment.
Taken together, the economy seems to have opposing forces keeping it fairly balanced right now.
There are inflation concerns, but also data pointing to improvement there. And if the tariffs go away, it could look even better.
Remember, the Fed was hesitant to cut further because of the unknowns regarding the tariffs, saying they at least temporarily raised prices.
If those are swept aside, it’s one less thing standing in the way of a Fed rate cut from new chair Kevin Warsh and company.
That might be why mortgage rates are in a bit of holding pattern again, hovering just above the key 5% range.
It’s a decent spot to be in, all things considered. But it appears to be a struggle for them to breach that psychological 6% barrier.
Given all that’s going on though, it’s not surprising.
By the way, that headline you (probably) saw about mortgage rates hitting the lowest point since 2022 was courtesy of Freddie Mac mortgage rate data.
They pegged the 30-year fixed at 6.01% for the week, the lowest point since September 2022.
That’s great news, though it remains about double what it was in the beginning of 2022…
Read on: 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
