Refinance boom stalls as rate shock jolts mortgage market into retreat

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Purchase applications edged up roughly 1% and stood about 12% higher than the same week in 2025.

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher, driven by increasing Treasury yields as the conflict in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, along with the risk of a broader inflationary shock. Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30‑year fixed rate rising to 6.30 percent, the highest rate since December 2025,” said Joel Kan, MBA vice president and deputy chief economist.

“Rates were around 20 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago and this caused a reversal in refinance activity, particularly for conventional refinance applications, which decreased 27 percent over the week. Government refinances also declined but by 5 percent, as FHA rates have not increased quite as rapidly.”

Refinance share narrows as rates spike

The refinance share of activity fell to 52.3% of total applications from 57.8% the prior week, while adjustable‑rate mortgages accounted for 8% of volume.

Kan said purchase demand proved more stable: “Purchase applications remained steady despite the higher rates, with conventional purchase applications unchanged and growth in both FHA and VA segments. Overall purchase applications remained ahead of last year’s pace, supported by higher inventory and slowing home‑price growth in many markets.”

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