“If the conflict is actually resolved on the other hand and not just paused, then I do believe that would be much more meaningful. A real resolution will reduce uncertainty further, help keep oil prices under control, and create a better environment for rates to come down more – assuming the rest of the economic data cooperates.”
Buyers might be concerned – but economist says war impact will be ‘short-lived’
For now, many US homebuyers will likely stay on pause as they wait for more certainty on the economic outlook – particularly with a potential recession likely to put a large number of jobs at risk.
Despite the growing doom and gloom, though, Oxford Economics sounded a positive note on the long-term outlook by suggesting the Iran conflict would wrap up this year with US economic growth improving after 2026.
“We expect growth to pick up in 2027 as we think the disruption related to the US/Israel war with Iran will prove short-lived,” Michael Pearce, the company’s chief US economist, said in a note.
Over the next decade, Oxford expects the economy to expand at an annual average rate of 2.4%, mainly due to anticipated strong productivity growth “with job growth likely to be weak.”
