The war in Iran has created a lot of volatility in the markets, and many stocks are experiencing fluctuating prices based on little more than conflicted investor sentiment. Right now, that sentiment is improving, and the S&P 500 is finally back in the positive for 2026, up 4% as of this writing.
That means that as companies release their latest earnings, the markets may respond to macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns rather than to the company’s performance.
Insurance technology company Lemonade (LMND +3.59%) reports 2026 first-quarter earnings on April 29. Given the current broader uncertainty, should you buy Lemonade stock today?
Image source: Getty Images.
Does AI make Lemonade better?
Insurance is a huge industry. In a recent blog post, Lemonade CEO Daniel Schreiber noted that 14 of the 100 largest companies in the U.S. are insurance companies. They’re big, and they’re old. However, Schreiber writes a scathing analysis of why the incumbents can’t catch up to Lemonade’s technological advancements, even though it is a much smaller operator in this industry.
The basic premise is that Lemonade was created on a digital substrate with AI as its foundation, and that gives it an edge even if the other companies start embracing AI, which they have. Its systems work together to analyze millions of data points and quickly respond, leading to more accurate pricing without the need for human intervention. It’s chatbots onboard customers and deal with claims, and Lemonade’s operating expenses excluding growth (OPEX) have remained constant even as its in-force premium (IFP), or the average total premium at a given time, soars.
Image source: Lemonade.
Lemonade continues to report robust growth in IFP, revenue, and profitability. Its loss ratio, which is an important profitability metric for insurance companies, has been declining, which means it’s paying out less money in claims. That implies that its underwriting is improving as the company has more data.
Today’s Change
(3.59%) $2.46
Current Price
$70.94
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$5.4B
Day’s Range
$69.94 – $72.78
52wk Range
$25.07 – $99.90
Volume
1.5M
Avg Vol
2.5M
What’s happening on April 29?
Management has provided several long-term goals, including reaching positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the 2026 fourth quarter, with positive net income to follow in 2027.
IFP growth, its top-line metric, has been accelerating for the past seven quarters, reaching 31% in the 2025 fourth quarter. That’s quite a track record. Management is guiding for that trend to continue, with IFP expected to increase about 32% in the 2026 first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain negative for the first three quarters of the year and the full year, but the outlook is for a 50% improvement in the loss.
Lemonade stock has seen major swings recently, and it’s trading roughly flat this year despite the broader market recovery. If it beats Wall Street’s expectations in the first quarter, the stock should reflect enthusiasm; conversely, if it misses, the stock should reflect pessimism. However, broader economic issues may impact what’s happening in the stock market.
In any case, it’s the long-term thesis that looks really exciting, and risk-tolerant investors might want to buy the stock now, no matter what happens after earnings.
