Core inflation hits 2023 high as Fed rate hike odds climb

Industry voices warn that mortgage rate cuts remain distant

Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) in Washington, D.C., offered a direct read on the outlook. “Inflation is too high,” Fratantoni said.

“MBA continues to anticipate that the Fed’s next move will be a rate hike, and that means mortgage rates are unlikely to drop anytime soon.” 

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation in Washington, D.C., agreed.

“The more likely story for the second half of the year is volatility around a higher-for-longer range, rather than a meaningful decline in mortgage rates,” Kushi told MPA.

“If inflation remains sticky and investors continue to demand compensation for inflation risk, mortgage rates may stay elevated.”