Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 272 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Today we take a look at the macro market, the potential for a big summer rally in the grain markets, and why farmers should look to the OTC markets with myself and StoneX for hedging 2022 crop this summer. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Corn and Soybean Oil Lead CBOT Higher Corn has been the upside… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Ag Forum Bullish Chinese Corn Demand
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 267 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Big news out of the Ag Forum today. Large multiyear Chinese demand for US corn might be a reality. In other news new crop stocks will start off adequate for corn and tight for soybeans next marketing year, which should not be a surprise to traders. If you want to hear more about our thoughts on new crop and why China is likely to be a big player in US corn for foreseeable future, then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Merry Christmas!
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 258 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Merry Christmas! The markets are open half day tomorrow, most close between noon and 12:45pm central time. The office will be closed by 1pm on Christmas Eve. Markets will open back up on Sunday night. We will be closed again on Friday, Jan 1 for New Years Day. New Years Eve is a full trading day. Please click here for the full holiday market hour schedule. . In today’s podcast we go over the macro markets, corn, and soybeans. We talk about how farmers and speculators can get some long exposure in these markets and why we are bullish for… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Soybeans Rally on Chinese Demand and S.Am Weather
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 249 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast President Trump tweeted today that talks for a new stimulus bill have been put on hold until after the election. The equity and metals markets sold off after the announcement. We always that a pre-election stimulus deal in Congress would be difficult to achieve. Looks for stocks to bounce back for gold and silver. In the podcast we also cover soybeans and corn. Strong demand, tighter stocks, and adverse S.Am. weather could lead to higher prices this winter. The grain markets are likley to be elevated and volatile until early 2021. Make sure you take a listen to… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Unemployment Report is a Major Bullish Surprise
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 234 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. In this podcast we go over the major bullish surprise in today’s employment report. We then go over why we still like crude oil. equities, soybean oil, live cattle, and lean hogs. We also talk about why we are not a optimistic for gold and treasuries. . Finally we talk about a strategy that could lead to farmers begin able to sell $3.90 new crop corn… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take | Jan vs March Soybeans
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Jan vs March Soybeans January 2021 soybeans are trading 16 cents over March 2021. Below are two charts. The first is the current Jan vs March spread. The second is a 40 year Jan/March spread chart from Moore Research (MRCI). The years when Jan traded at an inverse to March we had tight US domestic stocks. If the US has adequate to burdensome stocks, then Jan trades at a carry. I think the Jan vs March spread is an important spread to watch. Nov and Jan are strictly US new crop soybean export months. South … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take | Stocks Higher on Positive COVID-19 Treatment News
Macro Markets President Trump outlined his plan to reopen the US economy last night. For full details of his “Opening Up America Again” plan please click here. The decision to reopen will be left to each state based on a set of guidelines. Another positive development is from Gilead Sciences. They are seeing encouraging results for treating COVID-19 from one of their drugs. It has been tested during a small trial in Chicago for very ill patients. Early results show 60% of severely ill patients being able to walk out of the hospital after a week of treatment. The Gilead Sciences drug, Remdesivir, is a treatment and not a cure or vaccine. The stock opened strong this morning and this should continue throughout the trading day … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Ag Forum Acreage Estimates 94mm Corn and 85mm Soybeans
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 219 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we go over the rise in the US dollar, treasuries, and the stock market. We also talk about the rebound in energy prices. Finally we look at today’s Ag Forum announcements for estimated acres and new crop price estimates . Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777. You will receive the newsletter and podcast notifications for free! Ag Forum Corn acres are estimated to be 94mm and soybeans 85mm.Â… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Greetings from FARMCON and Kansas City!
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 214 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast! I spend most of my week at FARMCON in Kansas City. All Southwest flights to Chicago were cancelled today so I’m recording from the Hilton KC Airport hotel! In this weeks podcast we go over the Phase One trade deal and I also talk about FARMCON. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast! FARMCON Kevin Van Trump and Farm Direction put on one heck of a show this year. FARMCON was great and I highly recommend going if you have the opportunity. I always enjoy meeting clients at the shows so thanks to everyone who was… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Knee High By The Fourth Of July – July 2, 2019
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 190 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast! Happy Independence Day! It is a holiday week and it feels that way. Wednesday is an early close, Thursday we are closed for Independence Day, and Friday is a full day but the markets should be very quiet. Friday will be like the day after Thanksgiving. In this podcast we go over the bullish and bearish forces in the macro economy, why we think corn will trade in a range of $4.00 to $4.50 for the rest of the summer, why we are concerned about soybeans and wheat, and why we like cotton and cattle. Make sure you take a listen… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing | May WASDE Bearish
The WASDE was bearish for corn, soybeans, and wheat. All ending stocks number came in higher than expected. Below are the tables with results and estimates. Here are a few thoughts as the markets close. 1) Corn – This is probably as big as new crop carryout gets on the WASDE. Keep in mind that if corn only loses 2mm acres, that is probably 300mm bushels and ending stocks are closer to 2.1 billion. It is also hard to see a 176 yield. Every bushel we lose is about 80mm from carryout. So if we lose 2 million acres and 2 bpa (174 yield) then new crop carryout is under 2 billion. That could bring down global supplies over 10mm mts and back to the trade estimates. The world would still have… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Funds Trapped Long Cattle
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 181 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast! In our latest podcast we go over the impressive US jobs numbers, the weather market developing in corn planting, and how the funds are trapped long in live cattle. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! Macro Markets The economy created 263,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate is at 3.6%, the lowest since December of 1969! I like getting long the Emini S&P or Micro on the dips. Now that the Micro will start trading on Monday we are going to do more swing and position trading in the S&P 500. Margins for… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: February 2019 USDA Report Review
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 172 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast! The WASDE came out today and all the estimates came out as expected. I can not remember a more uneventful report with so much data being released. It is clear that the market is waiting on a US/China trade deal resolution. Going forward we see the markets are range bound and we will trade them accordingly starting Monday. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a deeper dive into the report! WASDE Review Below in yellow are the results of this Jan/Feb WASDE report. Corn yield was lower but so was ethanol demand and… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: October 4, 2018 | USMCA Replaces NAFTA
The US, Mexico, and Canada announced on Sunday their new trade agreement. It is being billed as the new and improved NAFTA, and will now be called USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement). The ag markets have been trading higher since the announcement. We have been waiting for a trade deal and it will be good for hogs and corn. The market also like the fact we have one deal done and now we can move on to Japan, India, the EU and China. We are also seeing money flow into the ag markets. Macro funds see corn and soybeans as relatively inexpensive compared to years past. With equity markets near all time highs, some macro money funds are taking profits in their equity positions and buying commodities… [Read More...]