A day trader is someone who repeatedly implements short-term intrasession trading strategies to secure profitability. Day traders target the world’s premier financial venues, specifically the stock, currency, commodity, and debt markets. Although the profession can be lucrative, it is also controversial. Two of the most popular markets earmarked by day traders are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ. Each offers vast opportunities in the trade of shares, indices, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, when it comes to day trading, CME equity futures offer a collection of unique advantages over these traditional venues. For retail participants, one of the biggest upsides is avoiding the pattern day trader rule. What Is the Pattern Day Trader Rule? According to the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory … [Read More...]
Sugar: A Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Investors
Sugar consumption has often been seen as a mark of affluence. But for emerging market investors, knowing how sugar is consumed can also be a guide to the successful investments of the future. We argue that only on-the-ground grassroots research can provide the knowledge needed to find these investment sweet spots. [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Sugar, Yen, Hogs
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on July 16, 2021. Open Positions Long the September 2021 Japanese Yen on .90880 (7/09/21). Market settled at .90890. Marked-to-market gain of $12.50. Working Orders Sell stop for the Japanese Yen contract at .90240, below a lower support level, GTC. (Initial Risk: $800, plus commission and fees) Sell limit for the Japanese Yen contract at .92440, a potential resistance level, GTC. (Reward: $1,950, minus commission and fees) Sell the October 2021 Lean Hogs 87.675 using a stop order, GTC. If filled: Place buy stop on 90.600, above the number three point and the 50-day Moving Average (90.350), GTC. (Initial Risk: $1,175, plus commission and fees) Place buy limit on 73.500, a Wave Projection, GTC. (Reward: $5,670, minus commission… [Read More...]
The Case for the 20,000 Dow, One Year Later
In July 2012, we argued that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise to 20,000 within a decade. At the time, the 20,000 Dow looked impossibly far off. With the market up over 20% since then, our forecast now seems less ambitious. What has changed over the past year? And what should we expect looking forward? [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Sugar, Yen
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on July 9, 2021. Open Positions Short the October 2021 Sugar contract from .1791 (6/07/21). Marked settled at .1728. Marked-to-market gain of $705.60. Long the September 2021 Japanese Yen on .90880 (7/09/21). Market settled at .90825. Marked-to-market loss of $68.75. Working Orders Buy stop for the Sugar contract on .1784, above Thursday’s high, GTC. (Profit: $78.40, plus commission and fees) Buy limit for the Sugar contract on .1631, above a potential support level, GTC. (Reward: $1,792, minus commission and fees) Sell stop for the Japanese Yen contract at .90240, below a lower support level, GTC. (Initial Risk: $800, plus commission and fees) Sell limit for the Japanese Yen contract at .92440, a potential resistance level, GTC… [Read More...]
Beware the Dangerous Stretch for Yield
The US Federal Reserve talked in early summer about tapering its quantitative easing plan and raising interest rates—in part to stop investors from chasing yield into the arms of riskier loans. In the high-yield market, however, the conversation had exactly the opposite effect. [Read More...]
U.S.-China Trade War Timeline: Is the War Over in 2021?
Daniels Trading is nonpartisan and does not endorse political candidates. The purpose of this blog post is to provide objective, unbiased information on what we believe could happen in the markets. The content is not intended to convey a preference or state a position in support of any candidate, and the sentiments expressed do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of our team members. The 2020 U.S. presidential election was a historic event that brought record turnout and a contested outcome. Democratic candidate Joe Biden became the 46th president, and a new era of economic, environmental, and trade policy began. Perhaps the largest question about this new era among industrial and financial market participants pertained to the U.S.-China trade war timeline. Read on to learn more… [Read More...]
Will Two Key Sectors Survive China’s “Long” Landing?
Based on insights from our team’s recent trip to China, we noted that the country is likely headed for a long economic landing. What does that mean for its infrastructure and commodity sectors? [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Acres and Stocks Report Next Week
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 279 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The acres report and quarterly stocks report is next week, June 30th, at 11 am central. Expectations are high for gains in both corn and soybean acres. Quarterly stocks can also be a huge wild card this time of year for old crop corn. Weather has been getting better for the Midwest but we are still in the midst of a strong grain demand market. We go over all of these aspects of the grain markets and how we want to position ourselves going into the big report next week. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s… [Read More...]
Is China Past Its Manufacturing Prime?
China has been an incredible export engine of manufactured goods over the past decade and the central player of the BRICs era. But mounting competition from other countries is gradually pulling production away from China. How should investors proceed? [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Sugar, Corn
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on June 18, 2021. Open Positions Short the October 2021 Sugar contract from .1735 (6/14/21). Market settled at .1666. Marked-to-market profit of $772.80. Working Orders Buy stop for the Sugar contract on .1711, above Thursday’s session high, GTC. (Profit: $268.80, plus including commission and fees) Buy limit for the Sugar contract on .1605, near the 89-day Moving Average, GTC. (Reward: $1,456, minus commission and fees) Closed Positions Stopped out of the short September 2021 Corn contract from 589’6 (6/15/21) on 569’4 (6/18/21) for a profit of $1,012.50. Step into the “Spotlight” Send questions specific to current or past trade recommendations, or any commodity related questions to tradespotlight@danielstrading.com. Beyond the Spotlight Watch your… [Read More...]
Expect Business as Usual After the German Election
Many pundits believe the German federal election on September 22 will prove a turning point in the sovereign debt-crisis. We are less convinced. [Read More...]
Is Trading Futures Superior to Trading Leveraged ETFs?
The capital markets feature a vast array of products, each designed to fulfill a certain purpose. Whether you’re interested in making long-term investments, holding intermediate-term positions, or engaging in short-term intraday trading, there is a security well suited to your goals. Two of the most popular are futures contracts and leveraged ETFs. What Is a Futures Contract? A futures contract is a legally binding, exchange-traded financial product. It outlines the purchase or sale of a specific quantity of an underlying asset at some forthcoming point in time. All futures are assigned an expiration date, and the contract ceases to be tradable when that date is reached. With futures, traders are able to secure bullish or bearish market exposure by either buying or selling … [Read More...]
Predicting Death to Find Life in Emerging Market Stocks
Over the past year, investors have become excessively cautious about emerging markets. To compensate for the additional uncertainty, many underestimate the upside potential. Paradoxically, to get a better handle on the risks, we believe they should assume the worst. By using this “pre-mortem” approach, not only do they have a better chance of avoiding disaster, but they can also more accurately quantify the rewards. [Read More...]
Time to Hedge Your Stocks?
A thought many people have after things don’t go their way: I should have hedged! The key to hedging, unfortunately, is doing so when things ARE going your way. To use a sports analogy, bettors on the side of the Atlanta Falcons in the 2017 Super Bowl preferably would have hedged when they were up 28-3 and their opponent’s, the New England Patriots, odds to win were 11-1. By the time Tom Brady won the overtime coin flip, you could buy the Falcons at lower prices than before the game started. This would be akin to your stock investment growing by 1,000% and falling back to below where you go in. Is Now a Good Time to Hedge? Most stocks have moved higher by many percentage points in the last … [Read More...]
Washington Woes…Again
There is no way to accurately assess the impact of the US government shutdown that began today, since we do not know how long it will last. In the past, such shutdowns have been short-lived and have not had a major economic and market impact. [Read More...]
Understanding How Futures Margin Requirements Evolve with Market Conditions
Futures contracts are leveraged securities that enable traders to control a large quantity of an underlying asset with minimal cash. To facilitate these transactions, the trader makes a good-faith deposit known as a margin. If you’re going to trade futures, then it is important to understand that margins are dynamic?as market conditions evolve, so do they. Read on to learn more about the functionality of futures margin requirements. Who Determines Futures Margins? When it comes to financial derivatives, margin requirements are key elements that influence many aspects of trading. As a general rule of thumb, the lower the margin, the greater a trader’s capital efficiency. And, although leveraging a small amount of money into larger returns is attractive, it is also risky. Margin requirements protect the … [Read More...]
Retirement Planning Today: Clearing the Hurdles
“Money isn’t everything,” proclaimed American fashionista André Leon Talley, “but it is when you start thinking about…your retirement days.” While retirement may bring more time for entertainment and family, today even prospective retirees of substantial means (or fabulous taste) may not feel confident that their experiences will match their hopes. [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Hurry Up and Wait
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 276 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this week’s podcast we go over the latest news in the grain and oilseed markets. We also take a look at the May WASDE from last week to get an idea of possible price ranges for old and new crop going forward. Make sure you take a list to Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. May WASDE The May WASDE showed tight stocks for… [Read More...]
Better Beta Is No Monkey Business
The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare. This makes perfect sense to me, but says more about infinity than it does about monkeys. [Read More...]
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