Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 317 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we go over why higher interest rates can lead to both lower inflation and a recession. As rates go higher and inflation comes down, money flow will come out of the “inflation trade”. If the market thinks the economy will go into recession, demand for commodities will be reduced and prices will trade lower. The grain markets are not as sensitive to recessions as equities and other commodities. However, as risk assets decline, the ag markets will drift lower. Time is running out on a weather market for spring planted crops. After summer weather the… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Recession Fears Weigh On Markets
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 316 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week by 75 basis points, just days after the latest CPI showed inflation over 8%. The S&P 500 is now down over 20% from the highs earlier this year, which is the technical definition of a bear market. Economists and traders are concerned the world will head into recession in 2023. Central banks typically use Quantitative Easing strategies when economies go into recession but due to high inflation the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the EU all need to raise interest rates and deploy Quantitative Tightening tools. QT will help… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | June WASDE Neutral
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 315 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The USDA released their June WASDE today and it was fairly neutral overall. Corn and wheat were slightly bearish and soybeans were a bit bullish. The bigger June report will be at the end of the month when Quarterly Stocks and Plantings are reported. The market shrugged off any bearish news today. The focus is now on hot and dry summer weather in the Midwest, acres loss in MN and ND, and the uncertainty surrounding grain and oilseed exports out of the Black Sea. N. American summer weather will have a huge impact on wheat, corn, soybeans, and canola… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Grain and Oilseed Selling Pressure Mounts
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 313 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast This week we start off taking about the latest jobs report and what it means for the possible recession, interest rates, and the stock market. We then pivot to energy prices and why natural gas and crude oil may have room to run higher. Finally we look at the grain and oilseed markets. Vegetable oil demand remains high but high oilseed prices are bringing out the acres. The grain export corridor is a major wild card for the wheat and corn markets. Spring crop seedings will be complete soon and then the market will focus on summer growing weather… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Will Russia Agree to a Corridor for Grain Exports?
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 312 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast This week we talk about why we are likely going into a recession. We then switch gears and talk about the grain and oilseed markets. Wheat was a heavily overbought market last week and has come down a dollar or two from the highs depending on the contract. Talks between the UN and Russia about a “grain export corridor” added fuel to the fire. We are skeptical a deal gets done based on how Russia has conducted itself with the war and their stance on suppling energy to Europe. Now that planting is getting underway it looks like… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Inflation and Ag Market Lows
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 311 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this week’s episode we ask the question how will inflation change trading ranges in the ag markets once we go back to adequate and burdensome stocks. Will we see $3.00 corn again or $4.00 wheat? How about $8 soybeans or $400 canola? We take a look at what inflation did to commodity prices in the 1970s and how they never did go back to the old ranges from the 1960s. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast! Inflation & Ag Market Lows Below is a 60 year chart of corn. In the… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | May WASDE Bullish Wheat and Corn
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 310 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this week’s episode we go over the bullish May WASDE report. The USDA is estimating tight new crop ending stocks for corn, wheat and soybeans. We talk about each one and why we think wheat is the most bullish, followed by corn and then soybeans. I also talk about supply and demand balance sheet scenarios and I’ve included my tables below. More to come next week but until then make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast! Supply and Demand Scenarios Below are my supply and demand scenarios for new crop… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Wheat Leads Ag Markets Higher
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 309 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this week’s episode we go over the Fed raising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and the threat of stagflations. Then we switch gears and talk about wheat and why it is the leader of the ag markets. Corn, soybeans, canola, and wheat are all bullish due to tight stocks and now we are seeing planting delays. India wheat production is coming down as are estimates for 2nd crop Brazilian corn. The grain and oilseed markets need every last bushel of production it can get due to Black Sea export losses. This is all setting up for a… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Spring Wheat Planting Delays
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 308 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Today we go over what planting delays mean for the hard red spring (HRS) wheat. This market is also known as Minneapolis wheat. The US plants about 11mm acres of HRS and Canada will plant over 17mm for a combined 28 million acres. North Dakota accounts for half of all US HRS wheat acres, and makes up about 20% of all HRS production in N. America. The delays in ND are serious and if farmers can’t plant HRS wheat in the next three weeks they could choose their Prevent Plant option. To make matters worse, hard red winter (HRW)… [Read More...]
Probabilistic Modeling for Trending Markets
Many mathematicians start with the same, single assumption when they commence any probabilistic modeling: the probability of a market moving higher or lower on any given day is 50%. Though this may seem oversimplified, it is actually quite true to practice if you look at the performance of a few Small Exchange markets in the last year: Market Symbol % of Days Higher % of Days Lower Small Technology STIX 49% 51% Small 10YR Yield S10Y 51% 49% Small US Dollar SFX 52% 48% Small Metals SPRE 49% 51% Small Crude Oil SMO 58% 42% Source: dxFeed (https://dxfeed.com) The uniformity of these statistics may seem unbelievable especially when you consider markets like Small US Dollar are pushing new highs since Summer 2020. It goes to … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 0.50%; Fed Expected To Do The Same
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 306 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Inflation is raging and central banks have been slow to react. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 0.50% today and the US Federal Reserve is expected to do the same after the next FOMC meeting. Old crop corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola are still tight and new crop prices are rallying as the market accepts the likelihood of tight stock during the 2022-23 marketing year. In this podcast we go over the USD and CAD, crude oil prices, corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! Turner&#… [Read More...]
What Are the Four Risks of Trading Stock Options?
When it comes to trading stock options, traders defer to the Greek language to address risk. Are you familiar with “option Greeks?” In this article, we’ll teach you about the four Greek risk measures of equities options: delta, gamma, theta, and vega. 1. Delta Delta is the rate of change of a stock option’s price with respect to a change in the underlying stock price. In other words, as stock price changes, the option premium does the same. This relationship is represented as a numerical delta value. Deltas are assigned to calls and puts as follows: Calls When the underlying stock of a call option rises, the value of delta increases. Why? Because as a call option’s stock price rises, so does the premium. Delta has a … [Read More...]
Understanding the Impact That Stock Option Time Decay Has on Stock Options
Options contracts are unique financial instruments. One thing that makes them different from forex pairs, ETFs, or stocks is that they have a finite expiration date. And, upon reaching expiry, all option contracts become untradeable. Read on to learn more about stock options time decay and how it can impact your equities market risk exposure. What Is Time Decay? According to Investopedia, time decay is “a measure of the rate of decline in the value of an options contract due to the passage of time.” Time decay is represented by ?, the Greek letter theta. So why do options contracts lose their value over time? The answer is simple: expiration. Remember, options are perishable financial instruments. When they reach expiration, they are settled and become untradeable. … [Read More...]
Bearish and Bullish Options Trading Strategies
In the financial markets, you can have three opinions about price: bullish, bearish, and neutral. No matter the market, volatility, or news cycle, these three biases are the end products of market analysis. Here’s a brief look at each type of market bias: A bullish bias is one that anticipates rising asset prices. If you’re bullish, you want to be long the market. A bearish bias is one that anticipates falling asset prices. If you’re bearish, you want to be short the market. A neutral bias is noncommittal. If you’re neutral, you don’t want to be long or short the market. Let’s learn more about how you can use stock option trading strategies to cash in on your bullish and bearish market biases. Bullish Stock Options Strategies … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Farm Advantage Phone App
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 304 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! FARM ADVANTAGE PHONE APP In our last episode we included our interview with Cassie Adolf of StoneX, the woman who made Farm Advantage happen. The Farm Advantage app is too good to just add to the end of a regular Turner’s Take Podcast. We need a special podcast dedicated to Farm Advantage. StoneX prominently displayed our new Farm Advantage app at Commodity Classic 2022 in New Orleans. It was a huge hit and one of the highlights of the show. Farm Advantage is a free app and has market quotes, advanced charts, StoneX research and reports, USDA insurance info, BAMWX weather… [Read More...]
The Power of the Call Option
The wide world of options can open up an everyday trader’s portfolio to P/L fluctuations unseen in the outright world of shares and futures. You can take advantage of large moves higher while only putting up a small, set amount of capital by buying calls. You can make money from a particular market’s demise without the risk of going short by buying puts. Or you can sell them both and profit from no movement at all. Here’s your beginner’s guide to the bullish half of the options duo – call options: The Defined-Risk Bullish Bet PTON Peloton Source: Yahoo! Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com) One of the most popular ways to use call options has been for cheap, defined-risk bullish exposure. Take Peloton … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Synthetic Trading Values
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 302 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! NEW PODCAST This week we go over the Ukraine/Russia war and how it caused limit up moves in the wheat markets. We then take a deeper dive into May Chicago Wheat and why it was the leader of all wheat contracts. We end with a discussion on how we derive synthetic values using May SRW Wheat as an example. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Volatility: {noun} a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 301 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! NEW PODCAST If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. This week we go over the Ukraine/Russia war and what it means for grain and oilseed prices. Since the open on Monday night the market was highly volatile for wheat, corn, soybeans, canola, and crude oil. We were already expecting high volatility between now and the 4th of July due to tight supplies and strong demand, and now the war in Ukraine adds… [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: mini Crude Oil
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on February 18, 2022. Open Positions Short the April 2022 mini Crude Oil contract at 89.90 (2/17/22). Market last at 90.66. Marked-to-market loss of $380. Working Orders Buy stop for the mini Crude Oil contract on 93.90, above the recent session high (2/14/22), GTC. (Initial Risk: $2,000, plus commission and fees) Buy limit for the mini Crude Oil contract on 80.00, near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 50-day Moving Average, GTC. (Reward: $4,950, minus commission and fees) Closed Positions None. Step into the “Spotlight” Send questions specific to current or past trade recommendations, or any commodity related questions to tradespotlight@danielstrading.com. Beyond the Spotlight Watch your inbox Monday mornings for the Beyond the Spotlight… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | CONAB Slashes Brazil Soybean Estimates
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 299 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! NEW PODCAST Lots of news and information to go over this week. We talk macro markets and trends but then focus on the CONAB surprise and what it means for grain and oil seed prices for 2021/22 and the 2022/23 marketing years. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. CONAB SOYBEAN ESTIMATES CONAB shocked the oilseed market and cut production down… [Read More...]
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