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Inching higher but only May consolidations been challenged

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Despite putting in the groundwork for a swing low we are still not seeing a whole lot of demand for building a rally off the lows. There should be nore upside in the tank, but once it reaches congestion from May I wouldn’t be surprised if the rally stalls out – which would probably be enough to push the indices well out of an oversold condition. With respect to the S&P, we had a new ‘buy’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume to go with the relative outperformance of the index against the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq is in the process of challenging the May swing lows without any real injection of volue. Like the S&P, the Nasdaq is enjoying a new ‘buy’ trigger for On-Balance-Volume … [Read More...]

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 345)

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Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York.  This week they talk about Fed Chair Powell’s two day’s of testimony to Congress, oil prices, and discuss the crypto markets. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets. [Read More...]

Morning Post 06/24/2022 SPX

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Good v evil On to the lie – Minis up 28. May gap cash over 3800 and one of my obscure diagonals. Gives bully a tiny bit of room to run if desired. Don’t be fooled. More to come below. Have a good day. GL and GB! [Read More...]

Week Ahead – Welcome relief

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Further turbulence ahead? Financial markets enjoyed a little reprieve last week following a raft of central bank announcements the week before. Next week sees the focus remain on policymakers, with many set to appear at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. Recessions have gone from being a potential consequence of high inflation and rapid monetary tightening to an increasingly likely scenario. Central banks are pushing back less and less against a period of negative growth, with Fed Chair Powell last week acknowledging it is “certainly a possibility”. Investors are looking for any indication that inflation has peaked and is on a quick and sustainable path lower, enabling central banks to take the foot off the gas and avert too much damage to the economy. … [Read More...]

Weak bounce does not a bottom make

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Buyers step up to the plate and recover some of yesterday’s losses, but buying volume was down on Tuesday’s for some indices – and there were some losses end-of-day to keep the gains in check. I wouldn’t expect much from indices tomorrow. but slow, steady gains over coming days would be good.The S&P did manage to register an accumulation day but technicals are net bearish. If there is going to be a ‘bear trap’ it will need to do alot more. Bears hold the advantage in the near term. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a ‘spinning top’, which is a more neutral outlook for the index. With the undercut of the May lows in the S&P and Nasdaq, the likelihood for the same … [Read More...]

Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

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Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog Well, finally the bear market… at 3/31/2002 the S&P 500 was priced to return a trice less than zero in nominal terms. After the pasting the market received today, that figure is 3.57%/year nominal (not adjusted for inflation). You would likely be better off in an ETF of 10-year single-A rated bonds yielding 4.7% — both for safety and return. I will admit that my recent experiment buying TLT has been a flop. I added to the position today. My view is that the long end of the curve is getting resistant to the belly of the curve, and thus the curve is turning into the “cap” formation, where the middle of the curve is higher than … [Read More...]

US Close – A brutal week on Wall Street ends on a positive note, Fed reiterates commitment to restoring price stability, Oil plummets on outlook,…

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The stock market selloff may have been overdone and exaggerated given this quarter’s ‘triple witching’ event. The expiration of stock futures and options may have accelerated the selling pressure leading up to today. ? It has been a painful week on Wall Street as inflation has forced many central banks to become more aggressive with outlining their monetary tightening plans that will lead to significant slowdowns for their respective economies. ? The Fed, ECB, SNB, and BOE are all poised to continue to tighten financial conditions throughout the summer. ? Financial conditions are tightening, credit risks are rising, and liquidity risks are percolating.  Endless liquidity is no longer going to support large parts of the economy.  The housing market is cooling, economic weakness is hitting both manufacturing … [Read More...]

Morning Post 06/17/2022 SPX

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Not sure what to say this morning. That’s unusual. Good vs evil.On to the lie – Minis up 35. In a supportless area above 3500. Don’t be distracted. Plan accordingly. Have a good day. More to come below. GL and GB! [Read More...]

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 342)

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Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York.  This week they discuss the carnage on Wall Street, while recapping the Fed, SNB, BOJ, ECB, and BOE meetings and discuss the crypto markets. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets. [Read More...]

Bull Flags for Nasdaq and S&P

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The last few days have seen the S&P and Nasdaq consolidate their bounce with ‘bull flags’. Both markets are coiling in preperation for a follow through move – presumably higher. In the case of the Nasdaq, we have ‘buy’ triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI – although stochastics are struggling to cross the mid-line. The index is outperforing the S&P which should favor a move higher and a challenge of the 50-day MA. The S&P is in a similar predictament as the Nasdaq. Its `bull flag`is getting ready to break declining resistance but is backed by ‘buy’ triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. Note, once it does break through it will run into resistance of its 50-day MA.The … [Read More...]

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