Fed independence warning raises stakes for inflation and mortgage rates

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“You’re going to get inflation come roaring back if you try to take away the independence of the central bank,” he said.

Goolsbee backed Powell’s stance that investigations should not become a back door for influencing policy. “I agree with it, with his argument that if you’re investigating as a pretext because you disagree with the rate decisions, that’s a mess. We should not be in that place,” he said.

Fed independence and the mortgage backdrop

For mortgage lenders and originators, the debate goes beyond Washington process. A sustained inflation rebound would likely force term premiums higher and keep mortgage rates elevated even if the Fed tries to cut.

Officials such as Goolsbee, who dissented on a December cut, worried that easing too quickly could push term premiums and mortgage rates higher again if inflation stayed “too hot”.

Goolsbee, who previously argued for patience on cutting rates, reiterated that the central bank’s focus needs to remain on restoring price stability.

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