GlobalData noted that as 2025 progressed, the world’s economy had largely moved beyond post-COVID distortions, however, growth still remained somewhat uneven and the path into 2026 looks a bit fragile. A comparatively strong first half of 2025, helped by firms advancing imports, quick supply-chain reconfiguration, and targeted fiscal support, gave way “to softer momentum as tighter financial conditions and elevated policy uncertainty weighed on demand.”
Global trade enters 2026 clouded by “heightened legal and policy ambiguity, following volatile US tariff actions and intensified cross-border deal activity,” says GlobalData, a intelligence and productivity platform.
According to GlobalData Country Analytics Database, global GDP growth is set to slow to “around 2.80% in 2025 and 2.77% in 2026, down from 3.02% in 2024.”
Although inflation has eased across many markets and monetary policy has become more data dependent, the business environment “continues to be shaped by supply-chain reconfiguration, industrial policy, and technology-led productivity initiatives.”
GlobalData forecasts the global inflation rate “to ease from 5.78% in 2024 to 5.33% in 2025 and further to 4.54% in 2026.”
GlobalData identifies key “upside risks.”
First, a meaningful decline in “policy uncertainty, particularly around trade and industrial regulation, could improve investment sentiment and lift activity. Second, broader productivity gains from AI adoption could support near-term output growth.”
Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Economic Research and Companies at GlobalData, says:
“In 2025, the global outlook was defined less by a single headline figure and more by divergence—across regions, sectors, customer segments, and access to financing. In 2026, business leaders should keep three priorities in focus: the path of services inflation, the real cost of capital, and policy-driven operating constraints across trade, technology, and energy.”
GlobalData’s 2026 watchlist emphasizes “practical, high-frequency signals most likely to influence corporate demand, costs, and investment decisions.”
These include interest-rate direction, “credit conditions, PMI trends, trade restrictions, energy system constraints, and labor-market dynamics.”
Here is what to watch out for in 2026 according to the update from GlobalData:
- US: GlobalData expects moderating inflation, but an uneven improvement in rate and credit conditions. Growth is anticipated to depend on consumer resilience and corporate investment appetite, with close monitoring of services inflation, labor-market cooling, and mid-market credit availability. The US’s real GDP growth came in at 2.80% in 2024. Growth is forecast to moderate to 1.84% in 2025 and ease further to 1.76% in 2026.
- Europe: A low-growth baseline remains GlobalData’s central case, with upside where energy constraints ease, and investment translates into productivity. Key watchpoints include energy costs, regulatory shifts, and industrial competitiveness measures. GlobalData forecasts the economic growth in the European region to ease from 1.89% in 2024 to 1.45% in 2025, before rising marginally to 1.54% in 2026.
- China: GlobalData expects continued structural transition, with sector-specific demand patterns and sustained competitiveness in traded goods. Investors should track sector-level policy direction, export momentum, and household confidence. The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025, which is projected to grow at a slower pace of 4.8% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.
- India: A favorable growth backdrop continues, with capacity build-out and execution discipline likely to determine outcomes. Inflation stability and credit quality will be important as lending expands. The Indian economy grew by 6.5% in 2024 and is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2025 and by 6.3% in 2026.
GlobalData notes that pressures and opportunities “remain targeted across sectors.”
In the US, consumer demand is expected “to favor brands with a clear value proposition, while technology spending shifts from AI tools toward workflow redesign.”
In Europe, attention stays “on grid and storage investment, auto and industrial transition execution, and financial-sector asset-quality discipline.”
China’s manufacturing scale and pricing are “expected to keep global competitive pressure elevated, while consumer recovery remains selective.”
India’s BFSI expansion raises the “importance of risk management, while infrastructure provides opportunity where execution and input-cost control are strong.”
Mundada concludes:
“GlobalData expects global growth to remain subdued into 2026, with outcomes increasingly shaped by services inflation, the real cost of capital, and policy-driven constraints across trade, technology, and energy.”
