Good morning. What will life be like in 2040? Pretty awesome, according to famed Silicon Valley investor Vinod Khosla.
Khosla, one of tech’s most successful venture capitalists and entrepreneurs, put the first institutional money into OpenAI in 2019, investing $50 billion at a $1 billion valuation. (Last week, OpenAI raised $110 million at a $780 billion valuation.) Prior to founding his firm, Khosla Ventures, Khosla cofounded Sun Microsystems and Daisy Systems. He placed early bets in companies like Square and DoorDash, too, and has invested in energy startups like CommonWealth Fusion Systems.
All of this is to say, Khosla’s track record for accurately predicting the future has been pretty good. So I flew to his office in Menlo Park to better understand Khosla’s techno-optimistic outlook for the latest episode of my podcast, Fortune 500: Titans & Disruptors of Industry.
Make no mistake, Khosla believes AI will replace most jobs and even the need for colleges in the not-so-distant future. But he also believes that life will become much more abundant and affordable in key areas, including education, health care, and housing. He sees no reason that a 5-year-old today should ever need to look for a job.
I, of course, had many questions for Khosla about this: How does he think people will afford life without work, much less be happy and find purpose? What government policies are needed to ensure this utopian vision doesn’t turn into dystopia?
“Starting in about 2030—four years away—80% of all jobs will be capable of being done by an AI,” Khosla said. “What happens when all labor is free? $15 trillion of U.S. GDP is labor, and that $15 trillion will mostly go away. That’s a hugely deflationary economy. But the abundance of goods and services [thanks to AI and robotics] will be very, very large. Prices will be very, very low. I would suspect by 2040, $30,000—or maybe even $10,000—will buy much more than you can buy if you have a $100,000 income today.”
We discussed all of this and more on the episode. Subscribe (and if you like it, please leave a review!) to Fortune 500: Titans & Disruptors of Industry on Spotify, YouTube, and Apple.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top leadership news
Renegotiating a deal
CEO Sam Altman says OpenAI is rewriting its rushed Pentagon AI deal after fierce backlash from employees and rivals for undercutting Anthropic’s harder line on surveillance and autonomous weapons. OpenAI wants to add explicit bans on domestic spying and intelligence-agency use, but critics warn the revised safeguards remain vague and hard to enforce.
A 4-week war?
Goldman Sachs oil research head Daan Struyven says crude markets are pricing in roughly four weeks of Strait of Hormuz disruption. Beyond that, “demand destruction” could push oil into triple digits.
The 6G revolution is here
Writing from Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Fortune‘s Kamal Ahmed reports that Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon has declared 6G inevitable: “resistance is futile,” he said. 6G will be AI-native—built to handle traffic between AI agents across devices, not just consumer calls and video. Qualcomm expects consumer testing by the 2028 LA Olympics, with broader rollout in 2029.
The markets
S&P 500 futures are up 0.34% this morning. The last session closed down 0.94%. The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.57% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.27% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 3.61%. China’s CSI 300 was down 1.14%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 2.01%. South Korea’s KOSPI was down 12.06%. India’s NIFTY 50 was down 1.06%. Bitcoin was up to $71K.
Around the watercooler
Palantir and other tech companies are stocking offices with tobacco products to increase worker productivity by Catherina Gioino
U.S. oil and gas exporters can’t fill the Middle East supply gap, but Trump’s pledge to insure and protect tankers stems the tide on surging prices by Jordan Blum
Top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns of stagflation gripping the entire world economy the longer the Iran war goes on by Tristan Bove
As Gen Z swaps dating apps for run clubs, Strava’s CEO says the $2 billion unicorn plans to go public ‘at some point’ by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Claire Zillman, and Lee Clifford.
