TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) released its 2026 credit originations outlook, projecting steady but tempered expansion across major lending categories. The forecast, issued alongside the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), highlights mortgages and unsecured personal loans as the main engines of growth amid a broader market that continues to stabilize after years of volatility.
Mortgage originations—both for home purchases and refinances—are expected to extend recent gains from historically low levels.
Purchase volume is projected to rise 4.0 percent, while refinance activity edges up 4.2 percent.
Unsecured personal loans are on track for an 11.2 percent increase, marking a third consecutive year of expansion.
Credit card originations should advance a modest 2.0 percent following robust 2025 gains, whereas auto loan originations may dip 1.5 percent after tariff- and incentive-driven strength last year.
“Lenders are maintaining a measured approach to profitable growth, relying on richer data and analytics to control risk and fraud,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion.
“Consumer demand for credit remains healthy across risk tiers and could accelerate further if interest rates ease more than currently anticipated.”
Early signals of this outlook appeared in late 2025.
The Q4 CIIR shows year-over-year originations gains in credit cards, personal loans and auto financing.
At the same time, more consumers migrated toward the highest and lowest risk tiers, reshaping lender portfolios.
After holding steady for years, the median VantageScore fell two points to 711 in Q4 2025, reflecting subtle shifts in overall credit health.
Bankcard originations jumped 11.7 percent year-over-year in Q3 2025—the fastest pace in three years—driven by both subprime and super-prime segments.
Total balances grew 4.2 percent to $1.15 trillion, while new credit lines expanded 9.2 percent as issuers focused on lower-limit accounts below prime to manage exposure.
Consumer-level 90+ days past due delinquencies rose modestly to 2.58 percent, still consistent with 2023 levels.
Unsecured personal loan originations reached a new high of 7.2 million in Q3 2025.
Balances climbed to a record $276 billion held by 26.4 million consumers.
Subprime borrowers led growth, and Fintech lenders increased their share to 42 percent.
The 60+ days past due delinquency rate rose to 3.99 percent, yet newer originations are performing better than prior cohorts, particularly in subprime.
Mortgage originations increased 6.5 percent year-over-year to 1.34 million in Q3 2025, supported by solid purchase demand and a 25.7 percent surge in rate-and-term refinances.
Home-equity originations rose 14.3 percent to 714,000, with HELOCs and HELOANs both posting healthy gains across generations.
Consumer-level 60+ days past due delinquencies moved to 1.58 percent.
Auto originations advanced 6.2 percent to 6.7 million despite higher prices.
Average new-vehicle payments climbed to $782 monthly and used-vehicle payments to $538.
The 60+ days past due rate reached 1.50 percent, with used vehicles showing slightly faster deterioration.
Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, noted:
“After years shaped by high inflation and elevated rates, credit patterns are returning to more familiar territory. Lenders that harness advanced analytics and trended data will be best positioned to navigate evolving risk profiles.”
TransUnion’s analysis suggests 2026 will bring continued access to credit for consumers alongside disciplined underwriting, supporting economic activity in a gradually normalizing environment.
