For the two‑week period ending January 2, 2026, total mortgage application volume fell 9.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.https://t.co/m70PXM3ZeD
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) January 7, 2026
Other housing analysts also see a restrained path lower. Redfin and others expect 30‑year mortgage rates to remain in the low‑6% range in 2026 even with further Fed cuts, warning that borrowing costs might only “ease slightly” rather than tumble.
Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said rates are still “expected to be low enough to offset price gains, causing the monthly cost of buying a home to drop in 2026 for the first time since 2020 even as home prices rise.”
Even modest declines could matter for existing homeowners who locked in loans above 7% in late 2023.
A borrower with a $400,000 mortgage at 7.25% faced a principal‑and‑interest payment of about $2,729; if rates in 2026 dipped to 6%, a refinance could have cut that figure to roughly $2,398, saving more than $300 a month.
For millions who secured 30‑year fixed loans near 3% in 2020 and 2021, the calculus remains very different. Many of those borrowers appear likely to stay put, constraining inventory even if rates edged toward 5.5% and reinforcing a slow, uneven recovery from what some economists described as a “housing recession” that began in 2022.
