Seeing that it’s February, I thought I’d take the time to remind everyone that mortgage rates are lowest in the month of February!
This is based on my own research in which I took Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) data going back to 1972.
I tallied up the average monthly rate for the 30-year fixed for the past 50 years and found that February was by far the best.
For the record, January is a close second and March isn’t too bad either, but rates tend to rise as the year goes on.
In other words, if you’re shopping mortgage rates, you might want to lock in this month.
February Is the Best Month for Mortgage Rates Historically
As you can see from my chart, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.62% in February, per Freddie Mac.
We have a very large sample size that extends roughly 50 years so there’s no shortage of data nor is it a fluke.
According to said data, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.62% in February stretching back to 1972.
That compares to a rate of 7.64% in January and a rate of 7.70% in March.
Then we see rates hit their highest levels of the year in the spring and summer months, with 7.79% the peak in May and June.
It’s kind of interesting because home sales peak around that time too (go figure). So home buyers, on average, get saddled with the highest rates.
Lately Mortgage Rates Have Been Lowest in September
For the record, the years 2024 and 2025 didn’t follow this trend, as seen in these MND charts.
Instead, mortgage rates were lowest in September in both years, though not for any particular reason.
In 2024, they fell for much of the year as the market anticipated the first Fed rate cut (and soft data supported it). Then bounced higher on a hot jobs report and Trump win.
But as expected, spring 2024 was the worst time period for mortgage rates.
In 2025, it was again soft economic data after many of Trump’s new policies like tariffs began to fade throughout the year.
Interestingly, mortgage rates were highest in January and February in 2025. But the caveat was Trump was newly elected and there was a lot of inflation-driven fear at the time.
And again, mortgage rates weren’t much lower in spring, so again March/April/May tended to be not a great time to lock in a rate.
So perhaps a different way of looking at the data is that spring is generally the worst season for mortgage rates.
And winter is often the best, though you have to pay attention to current events, whether it’s a Presidential election or the end of Quantitative Easing (QE).
Whether September 2026 is yet another winning month for mortgage rates remains to be seen.
February Could Once Again Be a Winning Month for Mortgage Rates
The way things are shaping up, this February could still be the big winner as it has been historically, especially if that delayed January jobs report comes in soft next Wednesday.
There’s also CPI on Friday, so we’ll have a clearer picture less than a week from now.
If those reports come in cold, which is entirely possible and perhaps even probable based on reports we’ve already seen like ADP and Challenger, mortgage rates could sink to the lowest levels in three years.
And it’s even possible we could see a sub-6% 30-year fixed mortgage rate this month as well.
If you’re in the market to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage, pay close attention. It’s a potentially big week.
But as you can see, there’s no guarantee mortgage rates will be lowest in a given week or month. Or even year.
However, there are certainly some trends to be aware of and to keep in mind to add to your mortgage rate tracking tools.
And regardless of the month or year, know that every year is filled with opportunities where mortgage rates plunge, sometimes only for a day or two. So always be ready to pounce!
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
