Virus rages on, a wrath of Fed speak, US retail sales slower pace,  Next week is filled with lots of Fed speak, an expected sixth consecutive increase with US retail sales, and possible COVID-1 vaccine results from Moderna.  Financial markets remain fixated on the coronavirus, with much attention falling on the US, which is consistently having fresh records with both daily new cases and hospitalizations, while averaging over 1,000 American daily deaths.  Economic activity in the short-term will certainly take a hit as lockdowns return and as parents prepare for schools to close, but financial markets are trying to look beyond the winter wave of the virus. Outbreaks across almost all US states heating up as Biden extends his lead Another Brexit “deadline” nears Oil’s … [Read More...]

Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam and Ed Moya. This week they discuss Jerome Powell’s grim economic assessment, German recession, UK economy, oil prices and the week ahead. [Read More...]

Following  another unprecedented week, Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart speaks to OANDA Senior Market Analysts Craig Erlam and Ed Moya. [Read More...]

A fourth week of heightened volatility will see financial markets continue to focus on the coronavirus spread across Europe and the US.  The economic impact of the virus is deepening, and expectations are high for the week ahead to see another wave of massive monetary easing and for governments to inch closer to a fiscal response.  The base-case is starting to price in a recession for the US and the length of it will likely determine how long we will see risk aversion remain in place. A lot of attention will fall on the Fed’s rate decision as economists have a wide range of rate cut forecasts that range between a 25-basis point cut to a full percentage point.  The downside scenario on the economy appears … [Read More...]

OANDA Senior Market Analysts in London and New York, Craig Erlam and Ed Moya, discuss the latest business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart. On this week’s podcast, Jonny and Craig discuss the outbreak of Coronavirus and its impact on the markets, the ECB and next week’s Bank of England meeting. Jonny is then joined by Ed to preview the Fed meeting and provide an update on US earnings season. [Read More...]

The debates on how much of an impact the Phase One trade deal will have on the global outlook will continue as market concerns fall on the Davos forum, central bank rate decisions and earnings season.  The upcoming week is shortened since US equity and bond markets will be closed on Monday for the observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  A good amount of attention will fall on Davos, Switzerland as world leaders and the biggest business billionaires will be addressing a wide-range of topics. Disappointing UK PMI data could cement expectations for the BOE to cut rates at the end of the month Euro could stabilize if the Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings have better than expected rebounds Wall Street may finally start fading … [Read More...]

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Friday, a partial rebound from their biggest daily drop in several years on U.S. President Donald Trump’s vow to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports. The tariffs, due to take effect on Sept. 1, intensify the trade war between the world’s top two economies and oil consumers. Any resulting economic slowdown could hurt crude demand. The U.S. crude benchmark gained $1.71, or 3.2%, to settle at $55.66 a barrel, a day after tumbling nearly 8%, the biggest loss in more than four years. Before the slide, crude futures had seen a fragile rally supported by steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories but pressured by a shaky global demand outlook. “The market is still digesting the impact of the tariffs … [Read More...]

The US dollar rallied for most of the trading week, but gave back gains on Friday after the US first quarter GDP strong beat was supported by transitory factors and softer core PCE.  The headline showed US economic growth accelerated much faster than the high end of economists’ forecasts.  Net trade inventories and inventories were responsible for half the gains of GDP and personal consumption dropped sharply.  The kneejerk rally in the dollar was short-lived as rate cut expectations grew slightly. FOMC meeting and Jobs data on tap next week Big tech and Pharma highlight earnings on tap Trade talks continue and China PMIs due Loss of liquidity from Japan’s observance of Golden Week USD What is next for the US dollar?  After approaching two-year … [Read More...]

The US dollar climbed higher as markets balanced out global growth concerns along with optimism a trade deal was nearing between the two largest economies in the world. US economic data painted a mixed picture with the earlier data in the week confirming slowdown worries. The focus is expected to shift away from the 3-month/10-year yield curve inversion as April data is expected to show signs the economy is stabilizing or possibly rebounding. Trade optimism is also growing as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will resume talks with US officials in DC on Wednesday. With accommodative stances firmly cemented by most of the major central banks, any improvements to the global outlook could help drive a high-beta rebound. – Strike 3 for PM May means long … [Read More...]

The relief rally in equities appears to have run out of steam as risk aversion gained momentum on concerns trade talks are not progressing fast enough and global growth fails to show signs of stabilization, despite accommodative stances globally. The US dollar and Japanese yen could continue to see gains if the political risks yield no progress and the economic backdrop continues to diminish. Next week the focus will remain on trade talks, Brexit, corporate earnings and if we will see another government shutdown. If US negotiators do not deliver a more optimistic tone on the trade front early in the week, we could see risk aversion accelerate. The Republicans and Democrats do not want to see another shutdown and talks appear to have been constructive this … [Read More...]

Dollar bulls have wined and dined like kings and queens in 2018.  The greenback appreciated the most against the emerging market currencies.  The earlier part of the year saw the focus on rising US interest rates and political stories lead the way lower for EM.  Trade wars also contributed to the risk-off narrative and will likely be a key area of focus in Q1. Emerging Market Currencies will try to outperform early in H1 Stocks ready to rally once trade spat resolved Brexit clarity needed before cable traders return Volatility was the story for Q4 as some of the major indexes fell over 20%.  The panic that hit the markets saw safe-haven currencies surge on market uncertainty regarding trade wars, Fed quantitative tightening (QT), a partial … [Read More...]

This daily market commentary is powered by OANDA.  Stephen Innes is the Head of Trading, at OANDA Asia Pacific. Innes has a deep-seated knowledge of the G10 and Asian currencies and is regularly called upon by leading TV, radio and print publications to offer his informed views on the financial markets. He offers specific expertise in trading spot and forward FX, currency and interest rate futures, money market derivatives and precious metals.   ZUU online Singapore [Read More...]

I’m available for market updates via Bloomberg Terminal, Reuters Messenger, e-mail or by phone. Good news for Soybeans?  White House statement: “China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural products from our farmers immediately.” Let the Xi-Trump post-dinner debate begin The markets were preparing for a day of binary trade unwind re-engage chaos as a trade war, geopolitical powder keg, and even oil markets hedges could have been forced to unravel. But with so many rooted risks in play with no clear-cut viable contingencies, play booking an outcome was near impossible. Nonetheless, it will be … [Read More...]

More Yielding to yields next week? What a barn burner of a week!! Fixed income took centre stage, but the lingering odour from risk aversion and choppy intraday moves will continue to challenge traders at every twist and turn. With US yields remaining at multi-year highs and breakneck price action triggering a massive uptick in volatility, now what possibly could go wrong!! Let’s look at some dynamics in play next week, as traders will be tasked to decide if these moves can be sustained. Asian Markets China returns from Golden Week, and it will be exciting to see how they review this  week ’s market evolutions and dynamics on Monday. Baring in mind that short sellers were reloading on the HSI as bears have returned … [Read More...]