This week’s economic calendar: Housing data, BoC survey, and more

Next week brings a few key Canadian economic releases that will shed light on housing, lending conditions, and overall economic momentum.

This week’s economic calendar has a few key housing numbers to watch, including housing starts and building permits. These reports offer a first look at construction trends and can hint at how developers are feeling about the market, especially as higher mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand.

We’ll also get a read on business lending conditions through the Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, which will shed some light on how tight or loose credit is right now—a key factor as businesses navigate ongoing economic uncertainty.

Here’s what to keep an eye on:

Thursday, May 15 – Housing Starts (April, 8:15 a.m. ET)

Housing starts offer an early look at new residential construction, a critical part of the housing market and a key indicator of broader economic health.

In March, the total value of residential building permits fell 8.3% to $6.5 billion, driven by sharp declines in Ontario (-13.7%), though a few provinces, like Quebec (+7.3%) and Saskatchewan (+10.3%), posted gains.

This pullback suggests that builders may be slowing new projects as higher borrowing costs weigh on affordability. However, the longer-term trend remains mixed, with 260,200 new units authorized over the past 12 months. (Consensus forecast for April: 235,000 SAAR)

Wednesday, May 14 – Building Permits (March, 8:30 a.m. ET)

Building permits are a leading indicator for future construction and economic activity. In February, the total value of building permits issued in Canada rose 2.9% to $13.1 billion, driven by a strong rebound in the non-residential sector. British Columbia led the gains, with a $657.7 million surge in non-residential permits, thanks largely to major projects in the Vancouver area. The commercial component added $390 million, while institutional permits climbed $248.8 million.

On the residential side, however, permits fell 2.9% to $8.4 billion, as declines in multi-family projects in British Columbia (-$185.5 million) and Quebec (-$131.5 million) offset gains in Ontario (+$110.2 million). Nationally, the number of new multi-family dwellings authorized dropped to 21,000 units, down 7.1% from January, while single-family homes totalled 4,800 units.

Friday, May 16 – BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q1, 10:30 a.m. ET)

This quarterly survey captures insights into lending conditions and loan demand in the Canadian financial system. The Q4 survey pointed to tighter lending standards and cautious credit demand, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty.

Thursday, May 15 – Existing Home Sales and MLS Home Price Index (April, 9 a.m. ET)

Canada’s resale housing market continued to cool in March, with national home sales falling 4.8% month-over-month, extending a streak of declines that now totals 20% since November 2024. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down 9.3% year-over-year, the lowest March total since 2009.

Prices have also softened, with the National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) slipping 1% month-over-month and down 2.1% from a year earlier. The national average sale price, meanwhile, fell 3.7% year-over-year to $678,331.

The inventory picture has shifted as well, with the number of newly listed properties up 3% in March and the national sales-to-new listings ratio dropping to 45.9%—the lowest since February 2009, indicating a more balanced market.

Week of May 12, 2025