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Your Success Might Be Creating Problems You Can’t See


Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

Key Takeaways

  • Your decisions can deliver exactly what you wanted, while creating costs you never intended to take on.
  • The habits that drive business growth can become expensive as your business changes.
  • Reviewing success means asking what it produces, what it demands, what it displaces and whether it remains sustainable.

In the early 1920s, car manufacturers faced a frustrating problem: They wanted to build more powerful engines, but “engine knocking” kept getting in the way. Fuel igniting unevenly inside an engine created violent vibrations that damaged its components. The finest minds scratched their heads over how to get more power without sacrificing reliability.

Meanwhile, refrigerator manufacturers faced a problem of their own: Some chemicals used in early refrigerators were toxic or highly flammable. A leak could turn a household appliance into a serious hazard. Finding a safer refrigerant could make refrigeration more practical for homes and businesses.

Enter Thomas Midgley Jr., an American engineer who was working at General Motors.

Midgley discovered that adding lead to the fuel could suppress engine knocking. Later, he’d help develop Freon, a refrigerant far less toxic and flammable than many alternatives in use at that time. And just like that, two stubborn engineering problems appeared to be solved.

Manufacturers respected him and adopted his work, and both products became commercial successes. For his work, the American Chemical Society awarded him the Priestley Medal, their highest honor.

You could look at that record and reasonably conclude he had done an excellent job. Entire industries were growing because of him, and he’d earned recognition from his peers.

Would you agree that by the usual measures, Midgley had an extraordinary career? Well … then the other shoe dropped.

Leaded petrol was found to spread toxic lead through the exhaust, exposing generations of people to a metal whose harmful effects we now know better about. Decades after Freon and related chemicals became widespread, scientists discovered that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) damaged the Earth’s ozone layer.

Midgley died in 1944, before scientists discovered the damage to the ozone layer. In Midgley’s defence, he could not have predicted every consequence, but his story begs the question for anyone who has built a successful business: What if the very thing that made you successful is also creating costs you haven’t accounted for?

When success hides the full cost

Warning signs around leaded petrol had already appeared during its early production, but the “cost” was ignored, and it remained in widespread use for decades. Freon seemed safe and harmless at first glance, and CFCs were widely used in refrigeration and elsewhere before scientists truly understood how they were damaging the ozone layer.

I think there’s a shared lesson in this about the limits of the original measure of success: A product can work as intended while creating consequences its original purpose never required anyone to consider.

Business owners can fall into a similar pattern. You find something that works, so you do more of it. Being available at all hours helps win customers, so you keep answering calls. Making every important decision helps the business move quickly, so you stay involved as the team expands and you keep accepting work because demand is strong.

Each decision may have solved a problem and helped you get where you are. The costs can emerge later, as the business grows and when you know better.

The habits that built your business can become expensive

Early in a company’s life, personal involvement can be exactly what it needs.

  • You’re available? You’re trustworthy.
  • If decisions go through you, you can make them quickly and keep work moving.
  • Taking on extra responsibility helps the business survive.

The difficulty comes when those habits continue long after the circumstances that made them useful have changed. The founder who once needed to approve every important decision may now be bottlenecking the team. The availability that once won clients leaves no room to switch off. The behavior that helped build the business can become expensive as the business grows.

Sometimes, getting personally involved is exactly what a business needs. You step in, solve a problem, establish a process or build a relationship that gets things moving. But was your involvement meant to be permanent? What began as a short-term solution can quietly become an ongoing responsibility, until you’re spending more time operating the business than leading it.

So now, you have more customers bringing more revenue, but also more complexity. A new market opens up, but demands more travel and attention. The business becomes more profitable while the owner’s time and energy become harder to protect, and their family is neglected.

Do you see where this is heading?

In my coaching conversations with entrepreneurs, I often return to the difference between what a business produces and what it demands from the person running it. Revenue, profit and growth are easy to track. The cost to a founder’s health, relationships, judgment or freedom can be harder to quantify, so it may go unexamined for years.

A business can be winning by its own measures while the person who built it pays a price they never intended to pay.

None of this is the business owner’s fault, because it’s particularly easy to miss when the numbers look good. A crisis forces you to take a step back and review, but who stops to question continued success? Nobody.

When revenue is growing, and customers are happy, why feel pressured to question the way you’re running the business, even if the arrangement is becoming harder to sustain?

Measure what success is costing you

You don’t need to become suspicious of every ambitious decision; building a business requires risk, investment and choices whose consequences cannot be predicted perfectly. But you do need to ask whether your measures of success account for enough of the picture.

Imagine reviewing a new business initiative. You’d probably examine the expected revenue, costs, staffing, return, etc. Would you also ask what it will demand from you personally, what it might displace or whether the business will become more dependent on your involvement?

Tomorrow, choose one part of your business that is performing well. It might be your fastest-growing service, a major client relationship or a process that depends on you being constantly available.

Write down three things: what it produces, what it demands and what it displaces. Then consider whether the arrangement remains sustainable as the business grows. Is it delivering the results you need today at the expense of what the business will need to sustain those results over the longer term? Or can it continue producing the same results without placing increasing demands on you, your team or the resources the business needs elsewhere?

Time spent managing one opportunity is time unavailable for another. Energy spent resolving routine decisions cannot also be spent thinking about the future. An arrangement that works financially may place demands on family life that nobody intended when it began.

Then ask yourself what has changed since you first made that decision. Perhaps the business has grown, your responsibilities have shifted, regulations have changed, or a risk you once considered acceptable now deserves another look. Would you make the same decision today, knowing what you know now?

If the answer is yes, carry on with a clearer understanding of the exchange. If something has changed, you have an opportunity to reconsider the arrangement while you still have options. You might choose to delegate a decision, renegotiate a client relationship or stop doing something that no longer justifies the demands it places on you.

The point is to make that choice while you still have options, rather than waiting for circumstances to make it for you.

You worked hard to build the business you have. You deserve to understand what it gives you, what it asks of you and whether that exchange still makes sense. Success deserves examination even when everything appears to be going well. Sometimes the most important decision a business owner makes is to look beyond the results that got them here.

Key Takeaways

  • Your decisions can deliver exactly what you wanted, while creating costs you never intended to take on.
  • The habits that drive business growth can become expensive as your business changes.
  • Reviewing success means asking what it produces, what it demands, what it displaces and whether it remains sustainable.

In the early 1920s, car manufacturers faced a frustrating problem: They wanted to build more powerful engines, but “engine knocking” kept getting in the way. Fuel igniting unevenly inside an engine created violent vibrations that damaged its components. The finest minds scratched their heads over how to get more power without sacrificing reliability.

Meanwhile, refrigerator manufacturers faced a problem of their own: Some chemicals used in early refrigerators were toxic or highly flammable. A leak could turn a household appliance into a serious hazard. Finding a safer refrigerant could make refrigeration more practical for homes and businesses.

Enter Thomas Midgley Jr., an American engineer who was working at General Motors.

The Chances of a Federal Reserve December Rate Hike Are Climbing. Here’s What History Says About Stocks After the Fed Starts Raising Again.


Interest rates are climbing again. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) enacted its first rate hike in more than three years in September. And now it’s looking increasingly likely the Fed will implement another rate hike at its December meeting. Inflation continues to run well above the Fed’s target 2% rate while the labor market has remained solid. That gives the Fed room to focus on the “stable pricing” side of its dual mandate.

But interest rates and stock prices generally move in opposite directions. Continued rate hikes from the Fed could send stock prices lower. Here’s what history says happens to the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.48%) once the Fed starts a rate-hiking cycle in earnest.

Image source: Getty Images.

What will the December meeting bring?

Investors have long expected the Fed to enact a second rate hike of the year at its December meeting, following a pause at the October meeting. Those expectations soared, however, after the October CPI report. The inflation index climbed 0.4% month over month, ahead of expectations. (Note, there’s no year-over-year reading as the government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting and compiling CPI data in late 2025.)

Futures traders had implied an 84% chance of a rate hike before the CPI release. Now they’re pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike, with an outside chance of a 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate instead of the standard 25-basis-point hike.

It’s a careful balancing act for the committee. Tightening credit too much can restrict the economy to the point where few businesses can grow earnings. That’s especially noteworthy today, as many AI companies have significant capital needs and are already facing challenges securing the capital they need to fund their growth plans. With AI development contributing significantly to economic growth, a sudden climb in interest rates could weigh heavily on the economy and the AI-company-led stock market.

The labor market easily absorbed the Fed’s first rate hike in September, though. The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, well ahead of analysts’ expectations. Another strong jobs number at the start of December could give the FOMC more room to hike rates before finding a more restrictive level.

Today’s Change

(-0.48%) -36.32

Index Level

7,556.08

Here’s what more rate hikes mean for the stock market

When it comes to hiking cycles, the speed at which the Fed raises rates matters.

Charles Schwab analysts examined rate-hiking cycles dating back to 1946, categorizing them as fast, slow, or non-cycles. In fast cycles, the FOMC raises rates nearly every meeting. In slow cycles, there’s at least one meeting without a rate hike before the next rate increase. In non-cycles, the Fed raises rates two or fewer times before the next rate cut.

The analysts show a clear difference between the market’s performance in fast cycles compared to slow or non-cycles. The S&P 500 experiences an average drawdown of about 12% during slow and non-cycle periods over the 12 months following the first rate hike. In fast cycles, stocks fall an average of 16.5% at some point during that first year.

The average 12-month return also speaks to the difference. Slow and non-cycles continue to produce average returns in line with the historical average returns of the S&P 500 between 10.5% and 11.5%. Fast tightening cycles produce an average 12-month return of-3.6%. That said, fast-tightening cycles close the gap a bit more than slow cycles (which can last longer) in the second year after the first rate hike. Slow cycles produce an average second-year return of just 1.6% versus 7.8% for fast cycles.

Overall, history suggests an extended rate-hiking cycle will weigh on the S&P 500 sooner or later. That’s no reason to abandon stocks, though. Higher interest rates also weigh on bond prices, and investors should heed the usual advice: Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Consider the current environment and how it could affect the Fed’s decisions, and how those decisions could affect the stocks in your portfolio, before making any moves based solely on historical averages.

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What the AMA’s New AI Policy Says About Licensure and Liability



Last updated: November 13, 2026. Based on an AMA report published November 10, 2026.

AI can help physicians, but it cannot be one, according to new AMA policy.

The short answer: The AMA House of Delegates adopted policy at its 2026 Interim Meeting saying AI cannot hold physician licensure, professional titles, or certification. The AMA will also advocate for laws that protect physicians who decline an AI tool or its recommendation, and that place liability for defective clinical AI on vendors when a physician used the tool as intended. These are policy positions and advocacy goals, not laws.

Everything below comes from the AMA’s own report on the policy, published November 10, 2026.


Disclaimer: While these are general suggestions, it’s important to conduct thorough research and due diligence when selecting AI tools. We do not endorse or promote any specific AI tools mentioned here. This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended to provide legal, financial, or clinical advice. Always comply with HIPAA and institutional policies. For any decisions that impact patient care or finances, consult a qualified professional.

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What does the policy say about AI and licensure?

The AMA separates AI as a support tool from the practice of medicine. AI can help with clinical tasks, the policy says, but it cannot be granted physician licensure, professional titles, or certification to practice medicine.

The policy calls for AI-enabled technologies to be built into physician-led teams and used at the direction of the treating physician. AI tools used for diagnosis, prescribing, and care management should come with transparent, auditable evidence of safety and efficacy, and should be subject to appropriate regulation, documentation, and liability requirements.

The AMA will also push for model legislation that separates authorizing a medical technology from licensing a professional, and that prohibits presenting nonhuman entities under titles reserved for physicians. AMA President Willie Underwood III, MD, said “patients deserve to know who is responsible for their care.” Separately, the AMA will advocate for safeguards that stop AI developers from using patients’ clinical data for proprietary or research purposes without explicit authorization.

What does it say about physician liability?

The AMA says established product-liability law already holds that when a medical device fails because of a design, manufacturing, or warning defect, the manufacturer is liable for the resulting harm, not the physician. It argues that physicians who use AI tools as intended, within a tool’s marketed and cleared indication, and who exercise appropriate clinical judgment should be treated the same way. The AMA notes the FDA had authorized more than 1,450 AI-enabled medical devices as of December 2025.

Delegates directed the AMA to advocate on four fronts. The first is declining AI. The AMA will push for legislation creating a framework for physician oversight of AI clinical decision-making, including protection against liability for choosing not to use an AI tool or follow its recommendation.

The second is vendor responsibility. The AMA wants laws placing liability on the vendor, manufacturer, or distributor when a clinical AI product produces an erroneous output and the physician used it as intended with appropriate judgment. It also wants vendors held to the same product-liability standards as other device makers, required to carry adequate liability insurance, and required to disclose known failure rates, limitations, and performance across patient populations.

The third is contracts. The AMA wants legislation prohibiting end-user license agreements and vendor contracts that try to shift liability for AI failures from the manufacturer to the physician or health system.

The fourth is mandates. If a health system, hospital, payer, or other entity requires a specific AI tool and an error from that tool harms a patient, the AMA says the mandating entity and the vendor should bear liability. A physician who was required to use the tool and exercised appropriate judgment should not.

In October, the AMA also released a framework for aligning liability with each party’s authority and ability to prevent or mitigate harm.

Does the policy change the law?

No. Adopting policy and passing legislation are separate steps. The AMA’s report describes what the association will ask lawmakers to do at the federal and state levels. It does not describe a change to existing liability law, so the positions above are goals, not current rules.

Specialty mattered too. Oncology and hematology (2.00), internal medicine (1.88), and family medicine (1.80) ran above their workforce share. Ophthalmology (0.23), radiology (0.24), and orthopedics (0.24) ran far below, at roughly a quarter of their share. The study describes these patterns but does not test why they exist.

What else did delegates adopt on AI?

A separate policy covers AI in hospital administrative work. Delegates adopted language encouraging organizations to require physician-led oversight when AI is used in credentialing, privileging, peer review, and quality review.

The AMA will advocate for that oversight and for transparency about a tool’s role in decisions. It will also encourage hospitals and health systems to disclose the data sources, validation, limitations, governance, and intended use of any AI tool used in medical staff processes. Existing AMA policy, the report adds, says physicians should be able to access, understand, and when appropriate challenge the data and methods behind AI used in these workflows.


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What should physicians watch for next?

Two points are worth tracking. The AMA’s goal is legislation, so the next step is whether federal or state bills take up these positions.

And the policy names vendor contracts and end-user license agreements as places where liability can shift, which makes the contract language in any AI tool agreement relevant. A health system’s counsel or a physician’s own attorney is the right source on how any of this applies to a specific situation.

What do you think? Do you agree with the policy? Let us know in the comments!

This article summarizes a published AMA report and does not constitute legal advice. Readers should consult their own legal counsel about how any policy or legislation applies to them.

Download The Physician’s Starter Guide to AI – a free, easy-to-digest resource that walks you through smart ways to integrate tools like ChatGPT into your professional and personal life. Whether you’re AI-curious or already experimenting, this guide will save you time, stress, and maybe even a little sanity.

Want more tips to sharpen your AI skills? Subscribe to our newsletter for exclusive insights and practical advice. You’ll also get access to our free AI resource page, packed with AI tools and tutorials to help you have more in life outside of medicine. Let’s make life easier, one prompt at a time. Make it happen!


Disclaimer: This article is for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute medical, legal, compliance, or professional advice. The information provided here is based on available public data and may not be entirely accurate or up-to-date. It’s recommended to contact the respective companies/individuals for detailed information on features, pricing, and availability. All screenshots, if any, are used under the principles of fair use for editorial, educational, or commentary purposes. All trademarks and copyrights belong to their respective owners.

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Further Reading



Chase Offers: Get 10% Back at Lowe’s/Lowes.com ($50 Cashback Max)


Update 11/12/26: Deal is back until 12/31/26. 

Update 10/12/26: Lowes.com deal is back through 10/30/26. (ht Kyle) There’s a similar AmEx Offer deal available as well through 110/30/26.

Update 9/15/26: Offer for Lowes.com is back through 9/30/26. This time it’s for 10% back, up to $50 cashback. The versions I’ve seen are all for Lowes.com, but some readers apparently got one for Lowe’s physical stores.

Update: Seems to be lowes.com only so no gift card purchases. 

The Offer

Check your Chase Offers for the following deal:

  • Got 15% cashback at Lowe’s. Max $50 cashback. Expires 7/2/26.

Our Verdict

Nice savings for Lowe’s. They sell various gift cards at Lowe’s as well. I’m not sure if this offer is only on the IHG cards or various Chase cards.

Hat tip to reader Rudy

Why did millennial homebuyers lose their edge over boomers?


Yury Shraybman, founder and team lead at Innovative Mortgage Brokers in Philadelphia, told Mortgage Professional America that some buyers have grown more cautious as rates climbed, particularly those already stretched on the monthly payment.

“I tell my clients to focus on the overall payment rather than just the rate, so we are looking at different ways to structure the loan, including seller concessions, temporary or permanent buydowns, and ARMs when they actually make sense for that particular buyer,” he said.

Unlike boomers, today’s buyers cannot count on a refinance to fix the payment later, he cautioned. “If rates improve later, refinancing may be an option, but you cannot obviously refinance the purchase price you paid for the home,” he said.

He also sees pent-up demand. “Getting consistently below 7% would probably get people’s attention, and moving closer to the mid-6% range could bring a meaningful number of buyers back into the market,” Shraybman said.

First American’s Real House Price Index showed real prices down 1.3% year over year in August 2026, even as rates rose.

Microsoft 365 Went Down for a Day. The Internet Gave It a Brutally Accurate New Name



Office workers responded to the widespread disruption with jokes about lost productivity, an unexpected day off, and a new name for the product family.

The 4 Greatest Money Lessons I Have Ever Learned #finance #wealth #money #tyler



This is from years of trying my best to pay attention. I think it’s helpful, and hopefully you do, too.

source

I Made My 120th PSLF Payment, But My Count Is Stuck. Do I Keep Paying?


The Question

I made my 120th PSLF payment in September. None of my payments from July through November are showing on my account. I certified my employment, and those payments still didn’t update. My servicer told me it takes 60 to 90 days for payments to post, and it’s been well past that. In the meantime I’m still paying $500 a month even though I’ve reached 120. Do I have to keep paying while I wait?

— A composite of two reader comments


Welcome to the Friday mailbag, where we take one reader question and answer it. Have one? Send it to us — details at the bottom.


The Short Answer

Our rule of thumb is to keep making your payments until your PSLF forgiveness is approved. Every payment after your 120th is refunded once the Education Department discharges your federal student loans, and those extra payments cover you if the glitch is hiding an error in your count.

If you can’t afford to keep paying, ask your servicer for a forbearance now that you’ve made your 120th payment, knowing that a forbearance month won’t count if your true count comes up short.

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Why Isn’t My PSLF Count Updating?

PSLF counts have been stalled since July 2026 because of a technical glitch in the Education Department’s student loan systems. It’s an internal database and technical problem, not a backlog of work waiting in a queue. The glitch began with the July 1, 2026 changes the Department made to put the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s new student loan limits and repayment plans in place.

In August, we reported that July and August payments weren’t showing up in PSLF counts for a large number of borrowers. Readers in our comments continue to say their trackers still haven’t moved, and servicers keep calling it a known issue without giving a fix date. Payments made during the glitch still count once the system records them.

The glitch is separate from the Department’s August count correction, which took back months spent in non-qualifying forbearance or on the Extended and Graduated plans. If your count dropped instead of stalling, that correction is the more likely cause.

The glitch is drawing outside pressure. State student loan ombudspersons have flagged the issue as well, and 33 members of Congress asked Education Secretary Linda McMahon to respond by November 18, 2026.

What Does Paying While You Wait Actually Cost?

Paying while you wait costs you the extra payments plus the months it takes to get them back. Our reader pays $500 a month. Say her 120th payment was in September 2026 and her forgiveness is approved in February 2027. That’s four extra payments from October through January, or $2,000. The refund then takes another 3 to 6 months to arrive, so that money could be tied up until late summer 2027.

That cost “buys” protection against an error. If somehow the Department’s final count is 118 because two older months didn’t qualify. The payments she kept making would fill months 119 and 120 without anyone at her servicer having to catch the mistake, and her forgiveness date wouldn’t move.

When Does Forbearance Make More Sense?

Forbearance makes sense when another $500 a month for half a year, plus the wait for the refund, is money your household doesn’t have. Once you’ve made your 120th payment, you can ask your servicer to put your federal student loans in forbearance while the glitch gets fixed and your forgiveness is processed.

The risk is coming up short. General and hardship forbearance months don’t count toward PSLF, so if your real count is 118, you’d owe two more qualifying payments after the forbearance ends, plus another round of review.

Check your own records before you ask (step 2 below). The more certain you are of 120, the smaller that risk gets.

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Keep Paying Or Forbear After 120 PSLF Payments
Scenario Keep Paying $500 A Month General Forbearance
Count Really Is 120 Refunded
$2,000 for October through January comes back 3 to 6 months after the discharge
Same Result
No extra cash out, forgiveness on the same timeline
Count Turns Out To Be 118 Covered
October and November payments fill months 119 and 120
Delayed
Forbearance months don’t count, so 2 more payments and another review
Cash Out Until Approval $2,000
Paid now, tied up until the refund arrives
$0
Only after the servicer approves the forbearance
Source: The College Investor.

What Should You Do This Week?

  1. Download your records. Save your MyAid data file from StudentAid.gov and take a dated screenshot of your PSLF tracker. Do the same thing each month until your student loans are discharged.
  2. Build your own count. List each month since your first qualifying payment with the repayment plan, the amount paid, and your employer. Our PSLF checklist covers which months qualify.
  3. Certify through month 120. Submit a PSLF form that covers your employment through the month of your 120th payment if you haven’t already. That form also starts the forgiveness review.
  4. Pick your path. If you can afford it, stay on autopay and keep each billing statement as proof of the payments the tracker is missing. If you can’t, request forbearance from your servicer in writing and confirm it’s approved before you skip a bill.
  5. Escalate after 90 days. If your count still hasn’t updated 90 days after your certification, file a complaint with the Federal Student Aid Feedback Center, then the CFPB or your state student loan ombudsperson. Name the months that are missing.

It’s important for borrowers to realize at the end of the day nobody cares more about your money and your payment counts than you. I know it’s hard to reconstruct 10 years of history, but for others reading this, it’s essential that you keep track of your eligible payments, your employment certifications, and always save a record of everything.

Where Do Borrowers Get This Wrong?

The most common mistake is skipping payments after the 120th without an approved forbearance. Until your loan servicing portal says, “no payment required,” you need to keep making payments or request that forbearance. A skipped payment without forbearance makes the account delinquent, and borrowers in our comments report credit score drops of 90 points or more from missing payments.

A second mistake is waiting on the any type of lawsuit to help you today. The American Federation of Teachers’ suit, Weingarten v. McMahon, proposes a “Withheld Payments Class” for borrowers whose unposted payment would be their 120th. A court hasn’t certified that class, so your own records remain the strongest protection you have. This lawsuit may give you relief in the future or help future borrowers, but if you are waiting today, it’s not likely to solve anything in the short term.

The Bottom Line

Keep paying if you can, keep your proof, and certify your employment through month 120 and beyond. The extra payments come back 3 to 6 months after the discharge and protect you if your count is wrong. If you can’t pay them, forbearance after your 120th payment is a reasonable choice, as long as you’ve checked your own count first.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are PSLF Payments Made After 120 Refunded?

Yes. Once the Education Department approves your Public Service Loan Forgiveness, payments made after your 120th qualifying payment are refunded. The refund first pays down any other federal student loans you owe, and it takes 3 to 6 months after the discharge to arrive.

Can I Stop Paying My Student Loans Once I Reach 120 PSLF Payments?

Yes, if your servicer approves a forbearance after your 120th payment. Wait for the approval before you skip a bill. Forbearance months don’t count toward PSLF, so if your count turns out to be short, you’ll owe more qualifying payments later.

When Will The PSLF Count Glitch Be Fixed?

The Education Department hasn’t given a date. Servicers have told borrowers 60 to 90 days, but payments made since July 2026 have not been tracking, because the glitch is a system problem AND a queue that will take time to clear.

Do PSLF Payments Still Count If They Haven’t Posted Yet?

Yes. A qualifying payment made while you work full time for a qualifying employer counts once the system records it, even if the tracker lags. Keep your billing statements in case the final count doesn’t match your records.

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Life after Jensen: What Nvidia’s shakeup means for private AI



This time last week, AI without Jensen Huang seemed impossible. Today, that’s the world we live in. 

Granted, it’ll have been less than (or about) 24 hours into that new world by the time you’re reading this, and there’s so much we don’t know about what a Jensen-less AI landscape looks like. One thing we do know: It will affect the private markets. 

“Nvidia matters more to private AI markets than any single investor because it has three roles,” said Harrison Rolfes, PitchBook senior research analyst, who was among many who answered my feverish reporting calls yesterday. “It’s the largest corporate investor in U.S. AI. It’s the main supplier for AI startups, and it’s the main [benchmark] public stock investors use to judge the AI market.”

Now, in the near term at least, how Nvidia and new interim CEO Colette Kress will handle dealmaking is in question. Rolfes pointed out to me that Nvidia invested $189 billion in 2026, making it AI’s top U.S. corporate backer. This broke down somewhat expectedly: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI account for $172 billion, and 27 other deals make up the remaining $17 billion. Kress, and any Huang successor, could be more circumspect moving forward. (Indeed, worth noting: Nvidia’s blockbuster $12.93 billion buyout of open-source startup Hugging Face hasn’t yet closed.) And some companies will struggle more than others, especially neoclouds, for which Huang was dealmaker and guarantor.

“If they’re dependent on Nvidia to bankroll them, like [CoreWeave] or Lambda Labs or some of these neoclouds, then I think you could be really screwed,” one early-stage VC told me. 

Much will move forward, nevertheless: My colleague Beatrice Nolan and I reported that Anthropic’s IPO is high-stakes but (for now) very much on, and some VCs told me that, yes, this could pressure AI valuations—and so what. 

“I think the valuations were ridiculous anyway,” said Rob Biederman, managing partner at Asymmetric. “I don’t think it would be the worst thing for the tech world if there was a little bit of a reset shakeout because a lot of things are getting funded right now that aren’t especially good ideas.” 

For startups wondering what’s next, Rolfes had some advice: Nvidia will invest less for now, but (on the bright side) it’s possible GPU prices will also drop.

“If you’re a startup, maybe don’t reach out to Nvidia in the short term to get investment cash,” he said. “What they should do is reach out to go get compute, go buy the chips…If some of these startups can get a hold of cheaper chips, then they can build out their product, which means we’ll probably start to see an influx of seed-stage [and] Series A-stage startups moving up.”

Here’s our larger feature contemplating life in AI after Jensen.

See you Monday,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com

Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.

Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.

VENTURE CAPITAL

– Mirendil, a San Francisco-based developer of tools for frontier AI research, raised $1 billion in Series A funding. Kleiner Perkins and Clearlake Capital led the round and were joined by Battery Ventures, Doerr Capital, Google, M13, Pear VC, and S32.

– UFORCE, a London, U.K.-based developer of uncrewed defense systems, raised $700 million in Series A funding. Valor Equity Partners and the U.K. National Wealth Fund led the round and were joined by Menlo Ventures, Shield Capital, Ballistic Ventures, Lakestar, and others.

– Databento, a Salt Lake City-based market data platform, raised $100 million in Series C funding. Fifth Down Capital led the round.

– SE3, a Munich-based developer of spatial AI software for military drones, raised $30 million in Series A funding. Accel led the round and was joined by Keen, Lakestar, and Seedcamp.

– Hatz AI, a provider of a platform that lets managed service providers sell AI services to small businesses, raised $24 million in Series A funding. Nadia Partners led the round and was joined by Vestigo Ventures and The Private Shares Fund.

– Nebuly, a Turin, Italy-based provider of software that measures the return on enterprise AI, raised $21 million in Series A funding. Planven led the round and was joined by Exor Ventures and others.

– Griffin, a London, U.K.-based embedded banking platform, raised $20 million in Series B funding. Octagon Partners led the round and was joined by Notion Capital, A+ Ventures, NordicNinja, and Breega.

– Biomatter, a Vilnius, Lithuania-based developer of AI-designed enzymes, raised $18 million in Series A funding. Astanor led the round and was joined by UVC Partners, Inventure, and Metaplanet.

– Gama, a Paris, France-based maker of lightweight solar arrays for satellites, raised €15 million ($16.6 million) in seed funding from Transition, Planet A, Draper Associates, and Manta Ray.

– Duet, a New York City-based network of primary care practices owned by nurse practitioners, raised $15 million in Series A funding. Kairos led the round and was joined by Lerer Hippeau.

– Athlete To Athlete, a youth sports mentorship platform, raised $8 million in Series A funding. Rally Ventures led the round.

– Twin1 AI, a San Mateo, Calif.-based developer of AI digital twins for professionals, raised $5 million in seed extension funding. Curql led the round and was joined by Greyhair Ventures and KittyHawk Frontier.

PRIVATE EQUITY

– Branford Castle Partners acquired Floratine Products Group, a Collierville, Tenn.-based maker of specialty plant nutrition products for golf courses, sports turf, and agriculture. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Bluestone Equity Partners acquired a majority stake in 11th St. Workshop, a New York City-based designer and fabricator of custom environments for live events, brand campaigns, and retail spaces. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Trusted Space, a Washington Harbour Partners portfolio company, acquired Falcon ExoDynamics, an El Segundo, Calif.-based developer of autonomy technology for national security spacecraft. Financial terms were not disclosed.

IPOs

– vVardis, a Zug, Switzerland-based health care and dental company, now plans to raise up to $199.2 million in an offering of 8.3 million shares priced between $21 and $24 on the New York Stock Exchange.

New Amex Marriott Bevy Card Bonus: 150K Points + $250 Credit


Amex Marriott Bevy Card Bonus: 150K Points + $250 Credit

The Marriott Bonvoy Bevy™ American Express® Card is offering an improved welcome bonus of 150,000 Marriott Bonvoy points plus a $250 credit. Thanks to Kai for sharing this offer in our Facebook Group. Let’s go over the offer details.

Welcome Offer

  • Earn 150,000 Marriott Bonvoy® bonus points and a $250 Statement Credit after you use your new Card to make $5,000 in purchases within the first 6 months of Card Membership.
  • Offer ends 01/13/2027.
  • Annual Fee: $250 (See Rates and Fees; terms apply)
  • APPLICATION LINK

Card Details

  • Earn:

    • 6X Marriott Bonvoy points on eligible purchases at participating Marriott Bonvoy hotels.
    • 4X Marriott Bonvoy points at restaurants worldwide and U.S Supermarkets (on up to $15,000 in combined purchases in these two categories per calendar year, then 2X points).
    • 2X Marriott Bonvoy points on all other eligible purchases.

  • Earn 1 Free Night Award after spending $15,000 in a calendar year. Award can be used for one night, up to 50,000 Marriott Bonvoy points. You can top it up with 25K points.
  • Marriott Bonvoy® Gold Elite Status
  • Each calendar year you can receive 15 Elite Night Credits towards the next level of Marriott Bonvoy Elite status. Limitations apply per Marriott Bonvoy member account.
  • Earn 1,000 Marriott Bonvoy® bonus points per paid eligible stay booked directly with Marriott Bonvoy
  • No Foreign Transaction Fees
  • Baggage, Trip Cancellation, Interruption and Delay Insurance
  • Access to Amex Offers.
  • Annual Fee: $250 (See Rates and Fees; terms apply)

About Marriott Bonvoy

The Marriott Bonvoy program is one of the largest hotel rewards programs in the world, counting 30 brands spread out around the world. Brands very from budget hotels to luxurious properties in exotic locations. Marriott Bonvoy points are worth about 0.6 cents each. You earn 10 base Bonvoy rewards points per dollar spent at Marriott properties. So if you spend $100, you’ll earn 1,000 points. But, some budget brands have lower base earning rates. Bonvoy elite status holders earn additional points:

  • Silver members earn 10% more.
  • Gold members earn 25% more.
  • Platinum members earn 50% more.
  • Titanium and Ambassador members earn 75% more.

You also get extra points for holding a Marriott Bonvoy credit card. Marriott is a transfer partner for Chase Ultimate Rewards and American Express Membership Rewards, giving you more options to accrue points. When it comes to using points, Marriott now uses dynamic pricing, with award rates varying between 7,500 and 100,000 points per night. A few luxurious properties can go much higher than that. Credit cards will also earn you free nights, which you can top up with up to 25,000 points.

Guru’s Wrap-up

This is a pretty good welcome offer for the Marriott Bonvoy Bevy Card. You get 150,000 bonus points plus a $250 statement credit after spending $5,000 within the first six months.

The statement credit helps offset the card’s $250 annual fee during the first year. Also the six-month spending window makes the $5,000 requirement more manageable. The highest ever offer on this card was for 175,000 bonus points.

The Bevy Card can make sense for Marriott loyalists who want a mid-tier premium card without paying the Brilliant Card’s much higher annual fee. Just be sure to review Amex’s Marriott welcome-bonus eligibility restrictions before applying.