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President Trump, Who Campaigned on Bringing Back 2% Mortgage Rates, Faces 7% Rates as Midterms Approach


What was once going well isn’t going so well today.

I’m talking about mortgage rates, which had been at their best levels in years this spring.

But are now around the highest levels since President Trump came into office in early 2025.

While it’s not necessarily a President’s job to keep mortgage rates cheap, Trump in particular campaigned on giving us ultra-low rates again.

Instead, we’re facing some of the worst mortgage rates of his second term as the midterms approach.

What Happened to the 2% Mortgage Rates We Were Promised?

Back in 2024 when Donald Trump was on the road campaigning for a second term, he promised to bring back the record low mortgage rates seen during this first term.

They actually fell to record lows right as Trump was ending his first term in early January 2021.

The 30-year fixed averaged 2.65% during the week ending January 7th, 2021, but then began to climb rapidly in early 2022.

By the end of that year, with President Joe Biden in office, the 30-year fixed was unrecognizable.

It reached an average of roughly 6.50% by December 2022, per Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.

And it got even worse from there, with rates ascending to nearly 8% by late 2023.

That eventually spelled opportunity for presidential hopeful Donald Trump, who used the high rates as campaign fuel.

On numerous occasions, he said he’d bring back the record low rates we enjoyed when he was in office.

During one campaign stop in Arizona in 2024 he said, “Today the mortgage rates are at 10%, 11%, 12%…we will drive down the rate so you will be able to pay 2% again and we will be able to finance or refinance your homes drastically at much lower costs.”

That got people excited, obviously.

They were staring at 7% rates after getting accustomed to 2-3% rates. What wasn’t there to like?

Getting Back to 2% Rates Just Wasn’t At All Realistic

But it didn’t add up. The reason mortgage rates surged higher was because of the many years they were artificially lower, driven by Quantitative Easing (QE), which had since been wound down.

There was really no practical way you’d get 2-3% 30-year fixed mortgage rates again without some major intervention.

Given inflation was spiraling out of control, another round of QE was impossible.

Fast forward to today and mortgage rates aren’t much lower than when Trump entered office for his second term.

The 30-year fixed averaged 6.96% during the week ended January 23, 2025.

Today it’s 6.71%, with a good chance it’ll be closer to 6.80% by the end of this week.

In other words, not much different. And nowhere close the 2% we were promised.

So much for marry the house, date the rate, right?

The question now is does Trump have something up his sleeve to deliver mortgage relief?

Or was it all just unfulfilled campaign promises?

Policies Need to Align with the Goal of Lower Mortgage Rates

I’ll say this. It’s going to be extremely difficult to bring down mortgage rates while waging wars, threatening tariffs, and spending money like it’s going out of style.

It’s for those reasons that we’re facing some of the highest mortgage rates since early 2025.

Ironically, rates did come down under Trump, and we’re at the best levels since late 2022 as recently as this March.

But then the Iranian war broke out and rates quickly moved closer to 7% again.

They are now on the precipice of crossing 7% again, which would be a huge blow as Trump enters the ever-important midterms.

And it seems they’re running out of tricks (or answers) to bring rates back down.

The MBS buying program appeared to do little and any hope of the war ending quickly is also fading, piling even more upward pressure on oil prices (and mortgage rates).

So those hoping Trump will fulfill his promise to return mortgage rates to 2% (or anywhere even remotely close) might not want to hold their breath.

Keep going: Try out my mortgage rate calculator to compare different rates fast.

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Karooooo’s 2026 Outlook: Global Fleet Expansion Drives Recurring Revenue Growth


When a delivery truck winds its way through an urban core in Southeast Asia or across the South African veld, it isn’t just moving goods. It is acting as a mobile node in a vast, invisible network. Karooooo (KARO +1.45%) builds the software and the physical sensors that turn those individual trucks into a single, synchronized fleet. By selling this operational intelligence as a subscription service, the Singapore-based company has stitched together a recurring revenue engine that currently generates cash at an accelerating pace. As of Sept. 11, 2026, the stock trades at $63.99 and has climbed 16% over the past year.

Our proprietary Hidden Gems scoring system assigns Karooooo an overall Superscore of 78 out of 100, placing it in the Strong category. The Superscore is an AI-powered score that evaluates a company’s overall strength by combining financial performance, product market position, technological capabilities, leadership quality, and relative valuation. It represents the unification of all our scores into a single score for public companies, with five rating bands: Exceptional (90-100), Strong (75-89), Above Average (60-74), Average (40-59), and Cautious (0-39). A 78 places the company in the Top ~14% of every company we score. This score serves as one data-driven input, and this report pairs the reasons for its strength against the constraints preventing a higher score so you can weigh both sides before deciding on further research.

Why Karooooo Has a 78 Superscore

  • Vertical integration advantage: By owning the entire stack from hardware design to software development and installation, the company eliminates third-party dependencies and preserves high gross margins near 68%.
  • Consistent subscriber scaling: The platform successfully reached 2.8 million subscribers in Q1 fiscal 2027, driven by a 16% year-over-year increase in active users and steady customer acquisition.
  • Disciplined cash generation: Operational discipline resulted in a 90% surge in adjusted free cash flow for fiscal 2026, which ended on Feb. 28. The cash generation demonstrated that the company can transition from heavy infrastructure building to profit harvesting.
  • Robust recurring revenue: Subscription revenue grew 19% year over year in Q1 fiscal 2027, creating a predictable, long-term foundation that allows management to reinvest in its global footprint.

Why Is Karooooo’s Superscore Not Higher?

  • Significant insider divestment: Frequent and large-scale selling of shares by the CEO throughout August 2026 introduces uncertainty regarding long-term management confidence.
  • Concentrated voting power: With the CEO controlling roughly 69% of the voting power, minority shareholders have limited influence over board decisions or corporate governance changes.
  • Capital-intensive transition: The aggressive surge in capital expenditure to match operating cash flow in recent periods has tightened short-term liquidity, with the current ratio dipping to 1.06.
  • Limited AI integration: The current software suite relies on bolting AI features onto a legacy telematics platform rather than utilizing an agent-native strategy, leaving room for more agile competitors to potentially disrupt the market.
  • Reversed cash flows: Karooooo has switched to a heavy infrastructure-build mode in fiscal 2027. Free cash flow was substantially lower in the quarter with a 28% softer annual run rate. Investors should expect more of these lower numbers as the company prioritizes long-term revenue growth.

The company maintains a high return on net tangible assets, which ranks in the top 11% of all companies we score. This efficiency means it generates substantial profit from a relatively small base of physical assets, allowing it to turn revenue growth into meaningful returns. While this high efficiency may help justify a premium, the structural risks mentioned above remain a factor for any long-term investor to consider.

Table 1: Hidden Gems Database Scores for Karooooo (KARO)

Score Score (out of 100) Rank Supporting Data Point
Product (1Y) 80 Top ~18% Subscription revenue grew 19% in fiscal 2026, supported by successful cross-selling of new IoT tools.
Product (5Y) 77 Top ~16% The company evolved from a regional tracker to a global platform with a 19% revenue CAGR from 2022 to 2026.
Financial (1Y) 79 Top ~15% Adjusted free cash flow hit ZAR 809 million in fiscal 2026, highlighting improved cash conversion.
Financial (5Y) 80 Top ~8% Return on equity climbed steadily to reach 30% in 2026, showing high long-term capital efficiency.
Leaders 76 Top ~28% Management maintains a disciplined focus on unit economics, evidenced by an LTV/CAC ratio exceeding 9x.
AI 40 Top ~24% Current AI efforts focus on bolting features onto a legacy platform rather than agent-native innovation.
Valuation Risk 79 Top ~6% The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 13.2x, providing a transparent valuation baseline for investors.

Is Karooooo Right For Your Portfolio?

This stock warrants a closer look if…

  • You are seeking exposure to the best small-cap tech stocks that demonstrate a proven ability to scale proprietary SaaS solutions across emerging markets.
  • You value a business model that integrates hardware and software, creating high switching costs that protect long-term recurring revenue.

You may want to keep researching before buying if…

  • You are uncomfortable with a highly concentrated ownership structure that limits the influence of minority shareholders.
  • You are concerned by the impact of significant and frequent insider selling on the long-term outlook for the company’s leadership.

The Superscore is a single, data-driven signal, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always pair this analysis with your own research and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

My 5-year prediction for Karooooo stock

There’s a lot to like in Karoooo. The company is growing quickly, focusing on further growth acceleration, and still generating positive cash profits.

And I think the growth story will kick into a whole new gear over the next couple of years. So far, most of its revenues have been collected in South Africa. Now, the company is building infrastructure to support expansion in Southeast Asia and Europe. And it doesn’t take much of an investment to launch services in a new market.

Karooooo runs a relatively asset-light business model with cloud-based services. There’s a proprietary hardware component, but the core service is online. Don’t be surprised if the Karooooo Logistics and Cartrack services start showing up in America over the next decade.

That’s the story for the next five years. Beyond this push, there could be a truly global story. And Karooooo investors in 2026 are getting in early. It’s still a small-cap with a $2.0 billion market cap and a reasonable valuation at 5.8 times trailing sales.

The Hidden Gems Superscore reflects The Motley Fool’s proprietary AI-driven evaluation of a company across product, financial, leadership, and valuation pillars as of the article date and may change over time. Performance figures are point-in-time. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

From ElevenLabs’ $11B UMG deal to HYBE Weverse’s data breach… it’s MBW’s Weekly Round-Up


Welcome to Music Business Worldwide’s Weekly Round-up – where we make sure you caught the five biggest stories to hit our headlines over the past seven days. MBW’s Round-up is exclusively supported by BMI, a global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music.


This week, ElevenLabs struck its first agreement with a major music company — a multi-year licensing deal with Universal Music Group.

Meanwhile, Suno launched its new v6 AI music models in partnership with Warner Music Group, BMG and Believe.

In related news: Suno and Believe struck a global licensing deal covering participating repertoire from Believe and TuneCore.

Also this week, HYBE‘s superfan platform Weverse confirmed a data leak affecting 422,584 accounts, including payment and refund details.

Plus: UMG confirmed it has now bought back nearly €1 billion of its own shares in 2026.

Here are some of the biggest headlines from the past few days…

1. ElevenLabs’ $11B valuation is more than twice the size of Suno’s. It just struck a global AI music deal with UMG.

Universal Music Group has signed a multi-year licensing agreement with ElevenLabs.

ElevenLabs will launch a new AI-powered music platform for fans under the deal, with the two companies also jointly developing AI audio products for artists and songwriters.

It is ElevenLabs‘ first agreement with a major music company, according to the two firms. (MBW)


2. Suno inks global licensing deal with Believe

Believe has struck a strategic partnership with Suno, just over four months after it began blocking the distribution of tracks made on the AI music platform.

The agreement, announced on Tuesday (September 8), covers “participating repertoire” from Believe and TuneCore, its platform for self-releasing artists. Believe confirmed to MBW that the partnership is global in scope.

“Under the agreement, music from participating Believe and TuneCore artists and labels will be included in the new music models that Suno is launching in partnership with the music industry,” the two companies said. (MBW)


3. Suno launches v6 AI music models in partnership with WMG, BMG, and Believe

AI music platform Suno, facing copyright claims on several fronts, has been promising licensed models since November 2025.

That month, it settled Warner Music Group’s copyright lawsuit and said it would launch “new, more advanced and licensed models” in 2026.

In the months since, Suno has signed deals with BMG and, just yesterday, Believe. It has also committed to audio watermarking and fingerprinting technology, and capped the number of songs its subscribers can download each month. (MBW)


4. HYBE’s Weverse confirms data leak affecting 422,584 accounts, including payment and refund details

HYBE’s superfan platform Weverse has confirmed that data from 422,584 accounts was leaked, a figure the company said was calculated based on account ID units.

The leak was disclosed in a notice issued on Sunday (September 6) by Zooil Yang, President of Weverse Company, the HYBE subsidiary that operates the platform.

The company classified one leaked item as personal information: internal identification information, which it described as a unique internal numerical value generated for user identification at registration. (MBW)


5. UMG has now bought back nearly €1 billion of its shares this year

Universal Music Group has completed the €250 million share buyback program it launched in August – the last of three repurchases under a €1 billion share repurchase commitment the company set out in April.

UMG has spent EUR €999.2 million (USD $1.16 billion) on its own stock this year as a result.

Universal confirmed on Monday (September 7) that the €250 million program, the second of two open-market buybacks it has run this year, was finished. (MBW)


Partner message: MBW’s Weekly Round-up is supported by BMI, the global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music. Find out more about BMI hereMusic Business Worldwide

7-Eleven Day: Save 50¢ Per Gallon on Gas at 7-Eleven and Speedway (Every 7th and 11th of the Month)


7-Eleven Day: Save 50¢ Per Gallon on Gas

7-Eleven is celebrating 7-Eleven Day with savings of 50¢ per gallon at participating 7-Eleven and Speedway gas stations. This offer works every 7th and 11th of the month.

In order to get this discount, you must have a rewards account and text:

  • AGAIN to 711711 for 7-Eleven
  • AGAIN to 96001 for Speedway

Once activated, simply enter the phone number linked to your rewards account at the pump, and the discount will be applied automatically. Offer valid through October 11, 2026.

You can stack this discount with other promo codes from 7-Eleven and Speedway.

Check out more gas saving deals here.

Unit 5.9: Management Information Systems – IB Business Management



This short video will summarise the key concepts of Unit 5.9: Management Information Systems as part of the IB Business Management syllabus. This topic is for HL students only.
~
Timestamps
0:00 Introduction
0:19 Data analysis & protection
1:14 Critical infrastructures
2:17 Business technologies
4:08 Customer loyalty programme
4:53 Digital Taylorism & data mining
5:57 Benefits and costs of MIS
4:53 Total quality management
7:14 BM study routine
7:42 More BM resources
~
SEE MORE
Website: diplomaly.org
Email: info@diplomaly.org
WhatsApp: +852-8416-7287 (wa.link/lyd4ti)

Book a free 1:1 consultation with Diplomaly to learn how we can help you master content, improve exam skills, and tackle the IA/EE.

source

How the Government Pays You to Buy a Short-Term Rental


I spent eight years touring as a producer, with platinum records on the wall and almost nothing in the bank, which sounds like the setup to a country song but was mostly bad math on my part. People stole from me, sure, but the bigger problem was that I measured everything by what came in and never thought about what I got to keep.

I own 18 short-term rental units now across two Texas markets, and the largest jump in what I actually took home had nothing to do with occupancy or nightly rate. It came off during the once-dreaded tax season that I now quite enjoy.

Here’s the kind of thing I mean. You’re single, making $400,000 at a job you have no intention of quitting, and in September you buy a $500,000 cabin and put it on Airbnb. Between the down payment, furnishings, and closing costs, you’re about $164,000 into the deal. Do it correctly, and if your facts meet the requirements, your federal tax bill that year could come down by roughly $50,000.

That isn’t a credit, dream, or some kind of aggressive shelter that makes an accountant shift around in their chair. It’s a question of how the property gets classified, and the rule it hangs on was written in 1988 with hotels in mind.

One thing upfront, because the rest of this article is useless without it: This strategy is fact-dependent. A short-term rental is nonpassive under §469 only if the activity meets an exception to the rental-activity definition and you materially participate. A cost segregation study and bonus depreciation don’t, on their own, make a loss deductible against your wages. They just make the loss bigger once you’ve earned the right to use it.

The Rule Was Written for Hotels

People call this the STR loophole, and I’ll keep using the phrase because that’s what people type into Google. It’s better understood as a published rule with specific requirements, sitting in plain sight for almost 40 years.

Congress wrote the passive activity rules in 1986 to stop doctors and dentists from buying paper losses. Treasury then had to define what a “rental activity” was and carve out businesses renting to customers for very short stretches, on the grounds that a property turning over every few days functions more like a hotel than a lease.

Clearing the hotel-style definition only takes you out of one bucket. You still have to materially participate before the losses count toward your salary. There are two separate tests, and people constantly forget the second one.

The rule was drawing a line between ordinary rental activity and customer-facing, short-stay operations. Decades later, that same line runs straight through a cabin outside Broken Bow.

Why You Normally Can’t Do This

Under IRC §469, rental income is passive by default, and passive losses only offset passive income. So if you’re a surgeon pulling $600,000 and your rental throws off a $50,000 paper loss, that loss doesn’t go near your salary. It sits suspended until you generate passive income elsewhere or sell.

There’s a narrow exception in §469(i) allowing up to $25,000 of rental losses against ordinary income, but it phases out between $100,000 and $150,000 of modified AGI, which makes it essentially useless to everyone it would otherwise benefit.

For a high-earning W-2 investor, two routes matter here. The first is Real Estate Professional Status, which requires 750 hours in real property trades or businesses, plus more than half of all your personal service work for the year. If you’re working a conventional full-time job, that’s a hard door to get through, because the more-than-half test is measured against everything you do. Most people who’ve been told they qualify were told so by someone selling something.

The second is to establish that your property was never a rental activity in the first place, which is what this article is about. You aren’t finding a way around the passive rules; you’re showing they never applied to you.

Test 1: The Seven-Day Average

Treasury Regulation §1.469-1T(e)(3)(ii)(A) says an activity isn’t a rental activity if the average period of customer use comes in at seven days or less.

Total nights rented ÷ total number of separate stays

That’s simpler than people expect and also not the calculation most people run. If you booked 340 nights across 74 separate stays, your average is 4.6, and you’re fine, while those same 340 nights spread across 42 stays give you 8.1, and you’ve failed the test with an occupancy report that looks fantastic.

The two mistakes I see constantly are dividing by calendar days rather than by stays and assuming you can clean this up later. It isn’t fixable after the fact. If your annual average lands at 7.3, you don’t qualify for the seven-day exception for that tax year, and unless another exception applies, the activity is treated as a rental activity under §469. Nothing you do in April changes it.

There’s a second exception that applies when your average stay is more than seven days but 30 days or less. It requires significant personal services provided in connection with guest use. Think hotel-style service, not property upkeep. 

Cleaning between stays, restocking supplies, repairs, and Wi-Fi are the ordinary work of running a rental and generally don’t get you there. Most owners can’t meet this one and shouldn’t build a plan around it.

Test 2: Material Participation

Clearing seven days only gets you out of the rental bucket. You still have to show you’re running a business, and Reg. §1.469-5T sets out seven tests, passing any one of which is sufficient. Three matter for most people: 

  • More than 500 hours on the activity
  • Doing substantially all the work yourself
  • Putting in more than 100 hours while nobody else involved puts in more than you do

Most people with one property live on that third test, since 100 hours is roughly two hours a week, which is manageable alongside a job. It also contains the trap that catches more people than anything else in this article.

Your cleaner counts as somebody else. If she turns your cabin 70 times over the course of a year and each turn takes three hours, she has 210 hours in the property, and you need to beat that number, not the 100 you had in your head. 

The regulation does permit a tie: You have to participate at least as much as any other individual, not more. But a razor-thin tie is bad audit posture, especially when the other person’s hours are an estimate you reconstructed later.

I track my cleaners’ hours in the same spreadsheet where I track my own. It took 20 minutes to set up. It was the cheapest insurance in this whole strategy. If you don’t want to build one from scratch, we put together a set of short-term rental tax worksheets that cover the stay average, the hour log, and the rest of the paperwork.

One thing works clearly in your favor: Spousal hours combine under §469(h)(5) even when only one of you is on the deed. Multiple properties can sometimes be grouped into a single activity for material-participation testing, but the grouping election and the appropriate economic unit rules are genuinely technical. 

Don’t assume short-term and long-term rentals can be grouped, and don’t assume they can’t. That’s a CPA question. Against you, the Audit Techniques Guide excludes investor activities such as reviewing financials, studying markets, and arranging financing, so every hour you spent on Zillow before you bought is worth nothing.

Travel time is fact-specific, and I’d treat it as a risk rather than an asset. In Lucero v. Commissioner (T.C. Memo. 2020-136), the court rejected claimed travel hours for a couple running a rental at Sea Ranch, hours from their home in Sacramento, in the context of a participation record it didn’t find reliable, which included two hours logged for a Bed Bath & Beyond run to buy coffee filters. 

A taxpayer did get travel time counted in Leyh, but that was a summary opinion; it carries no precedential weight and addressed real estate professional status rather than STR material participation. 

Don’t build your hours on drive time. Log enough operational work that it never has to come up.

Where the Deduction Actually Comes From

Qualifying doesn’t create a deduction on its own. You need a loss to deduct; it comes from depreciation, and depreciation gets large because of two things working together.

Cost segregation

A building is hundreds of assets with very different useful lives, and the code already has schedules for each. An engineer inventories the property and assigns components to shorter recovery periods where the facts support it; things like appliances, furnishings, certain finishes, and specialty electrical often land in five- or seven-year property, while site work like paving, fencing, and landscaping frequently falls into 15-year land improvements.

I’m hedging on purpose there. Classification is asset-specific. Two cabins that look identical from the road can be segregated differently depending on how they were built and what the invoices say, which is exactly why the study has to be defensible rather than assumed.

The remaining building basis sits on a much longer recovery period. Whether that’s 27.5 years or 39 depends on the property’s classification and how it’s actually used, so confirm it with whoever is preparing the return rather than assuming.

Cost segregation providers often cite reclassification ranges of 20% to 35% of the depreciable basis, and furnished cabins with real site work can land higher, since rural properties carry land improvements that nobody thinks about. 

But that’s a range other people quote, not a promise about your building. The result depends on the property, invoices, and asset mix.

A study on a property this size runs several thousand dollars. Whether that’s worth paying depends on how much gets reclassified, whether you can actually use the loss this year, and how well the study is built, not on the size of the deduction alone. A $143,000 deduction is not $143,000 in your pocket, which is a distinction I’ll come back to. 

If you already own something and have never had one done, a look-back study can often catch up the missed depreciation through an accounting method change rather than amended returns. Confirm the procedure with your CPA. Don’t build your own in a spreadsheet, since an estimated percentage doesn’t tie components to the actual cost basis and won’t survive a challenge.

100% bonus depreciation, now permanent

Qualified property with a recovery period of 20 years or less is generally eligible for 100% bonus depreciation, subject to acquisition, placed-in-service, original-use or used-property requirements, and the other rules in §168(k). That covers most of what a cost segregation study pulls out of a building, and “most” is doing real work in that sentence. 

Bonus depreciation was on a death march until recently, scheduled to drop to 40% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and zero after that, until the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, deleted the schedule. Section 70301 permanently restored the rate to 100% for property acquired after Jan. 19, 2025, and struck the old rule requiring property to be in service before 2027 to receive any bonus at all. The IRS confirmed the mechanics in Notice 2026-11.

That permanence is about the rate, not about your calendar, and the difference matters. Most articles you’ll read get the urgency backward. The pitch is usually some version of “buy before the law changes,” except the law isn’t changing anymore. What’s time-sensitive is the tax year.

To claim this on a 2026 return, the property generally has to be placed in service by Dec. 31, ready and available for its intended rental use. Closing isn’t the test. If furnishing, repairs, permits, or a certificate of occupancy are still standing between you and a bookable listing, you haven’t placed it in service, and I’ve watched people lose a full year to a countertop.

One narrow exception applies to property under a written binding contract entered into before Jan. 20, 2025, which may fall under the prior phase-down rather than the new 100% rate. Whether it does depends on when the contract actually became enforceable and whether contingencies or cancellation rights were still hanging over it. If that might be you, have your CPA read the contract rather than assuming the new rate applies.

The math

Single filer, $400,000 W-2 income, buying a cabin in September.

What this illustration assumes: 2026 tax year, single filer, standard deduction, no other income or itemized deductions, and a taxpayer who clears both the seven-day test and material participation. It’s federal income tax only. It ignores payroll taxes, net investment income tax, AMT, QBI, state income tax, capital gains, and any passive-loss carryforwards. Change any of those, and the number moves. 

Run your own facts through a CPA or tax software before you count on anything.

Purchase price $500,000
Land allocation (20%, not depreciable) ?$100,000
Depreciable building basis $400,000
Cost seg reclassifies 27% $108,000
Furniture, appliances, setup $35,000
Eligible for 100% bonus $143,000
Remaining $292,000 on 39-year line, ~3.5 months $2,184
Total year-one depreciation $145,184

From September through December, the cabin brings in $18,000 and spends $16,000 on operating costs and mortgage interest, resulting in a real profit of $2,000. After depreciation is subtracted, it reports a $143,184 loss. 

The property produced positive cash flow before depreciation. The return shows a loss because depreciation is a noncash deduction.

Taxable income before $383,900
Federal tax before $103,134
Taxable income after $240,716
Federal tax after $53,485
Federal tax reduction $49,649

Set that against what was left in the bank account: $110,000 down at 22%, $35,000 in furnishings, $12,500 in closing costs, and $6,000 for the study, for about $163,500 all in. You put in $164,000 and got $50,000 back, a 30% return on cash before the cabin earns a dollar of profit.

One correction to that math

You’ll see this presented as simple multiplication where you’re in the 35% bracket, so a $143,184 loss saves you $50,114. That isn’t how deductions work, because a deduction doesn’t come off at your top rate; it walks down through the brackets, peeling off 35% and then 32%, which puts our filer’s real blended benefit at 34.7%. The difference here is $465, but it grows, and in the direction nobody selling cost seg studies is eager to mention. 

Run the same filer with a $290,000 loss and top-rate math claims $101,500. Under these assumptions, the actual federal reduction is about $87,764, a gap of roughly $13,736. When somebody quotes you a savings figure, ask whether they walked the brackets or just multiplied.

Where People Blow It

The most common failure is a reconstructed time log. Courts may reject a log that’s vague, built after the fact, or unsupported by contemporaneous records, and the tells are obvious from the other side of the desk: round numbers, no description of what was done, the whole thing typed up in one sitting after the letter arrived. Log it the day it happens with a date, a task, and a duration.

Close behind is not tracking contractors, since you can’t prove you did more than anyone else if you never counted anyone else. A full-service property manager creates the same problem at a larger scale. If someone else handles your listing, pricing, guest communication, and turns, their hours can make the more-than-100-hours test very hard to clear, and an examiner will want to see exactly what the manager did versus what you did yourself.

Personal use will also get you. If personal use exceeds the greater of 14 days or 10% of the days rented at fair rental value, the place may be treated as a residence under the vacation-home rules, which limits what you can deduct.

Land allocation can move the deduction more than people expect. Land isn’t depreciable, so on a $1 million property, a 40% land allocation leaves you $600,000 of depreciable basis, while a 15% allocation leaves $850,000, the same property and the same price, with a quarter-million-dollar swing in what you can depreciate. Get that number supported by your study or an appraisal rather than accepting whatever the county assessor wrote down.

Three Things to Settle Before You File

The strategy is well-established. These are the parts that get looked at.

1. Schedule E or Schedule C

This is a separate question from §469, and conflating the two is a mistake I see constantly. Clearing the seven-day test doesn’t automatically move you to Schedule C. 

The reporting question turns on the services you provide to guests. Ordinary rental services, cleaning between guests, repairs, trash removal, and maintenance generally support Schedule E. Hotel-like services such as meals, daily cleaning during a stay, concierge, or transportation can support Schedule C, which carries a 15.3% self-employment tax. 

It’s a fact-specific filing position. Settle it with your CPA before you file, not after.

2. Whether spouses can combine hours

Some examiners have pushed back on this, claiming that each spouse must independently clear the threshold. The statute reads the other way: §469(h)(5) says a spouse’s participation is taken into account without qualification. The independent 750-hour requirement belongs to real estate professional status, and the two get conflated.

3. Documentation

The one you fully control, and usually the one that shapes how an exam goes. A large loss against a large W-2 income stands out on a return. That’s an argument for records good enough that a question becomes a paperwork exercise rather than a fight.

What Happens When You Sell

Accelerated depreciation is a timing benefit, and some of it comes back on the way out.

You’ll read in many places that recapture caps at 25%. That’s half-true in a way that favors whoever’s selling you something. Real property generally results in unrecaptured §1250 gain at a maximum rate of 25%. 

But short-life personal property (the appliances, furnishings, and fixtures a study pulls out) is generally §1245 property, recaptured at ordinary income rates. Which components land where depends on the assets and the facts, so don’t assume every dollar a study reclassified gets the same treatment at sale.

The part worth internalizing is that those short-life components often drive most of your first-year deduction. On sale, §1245 recapture on them is generally taxed at ordinary income rates, which can run as high as your marginal rate in the year you sell. And note the asymmetry: The deduction walked down through your brackets on the way in, while the recapture stacks on top of whatever else you earn on the way out.

That doesn’t make it a bad strategy. Deferral has real value, and a properly structured 1031 exchange may push the gain further out. Neither one removes the need to plan for recapture. Anyone describing this as free money hasn’t read past the fun part.

Before You Go, Do This

This works if you have significant active income, you’ll own the guest experience rather than outsourcing it, and you’re buying something you’d want regardless of the tax treatment. It doesn’t work for arbitrage or co-hosting, since the benefit comes from depreciating an owned building.

That last condition is the one people skip and the one I’d underline: A bad property with a great tax outcome is still a bad property. You get the depreciation once while you own the asset for years.

I built my first geodome in 2021 for $85,000, and it did $95,000 in revenue in its first year. The tax treatment was excellent, and I’d have built it anyway because the business worked, which is the order I’d keep things in.

If you’re moving on this, do three things this week:

  • Run your average stay from last year’s booking export.
  • Start a time log today rather than in January.
  • Find a CPA who works with short-term rentals instead of one willing to learn on your return. Ask how many STR clients they have, and if there’s a pause, keep looking.

The first two are worksheets in our short-term rental tax pack, along with a pre-buy checklist and a list of questions to bring to your CPA.

The rules here are longstanding, and you can go read them yourself. What varies is the facts and the documentation. That’s what decides whether it holds. The people who get burned aren’t the ones using the strategy; they’re the ones who used it and couldn’t prove any of it 18 months later when somebody asked.

Garrett is the Short-Term Rental Expert at BiggerPockets and owns 18 short-term rental units across Texas. This article is educational and is not tax advice. Tax outcomes depend entirely on your specific facts. Talk to a qualified CPA before acting on any of it.

Mortgage borrowing slows to weakest pace since early 2024: StatCan




Household debt burdens eased as income growth outpaced debt payments, but mortgage interest costs continued to climb.

What Business Leaders Still Don’t Understand About China


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Current price of oil as of Sept. 11, 2026



At 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $105.82 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s an increase of 62 cents compared with yesterday morning and around $39.25 higher than the price one year ago.

Oil price per barrel % Change
Price of oil yesterday $105.20 +0.58%
Price of oil 1 month ago $90.64 +16.74%
Price of oil 1 year ago $66.59 +58.91%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel $105.20
% Change +0.58%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel $90.64
% Change +16.74%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel $66.59
% Change +58.91%

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

  • Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

  • The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
  • Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
  • Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
  • During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Energy coverage from Fortune

Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:

Frequently asked questions

How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?

The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.

How often does the price of oil change during the day?

The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.

How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?

In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.

How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?

When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.

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