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How Can Mortgage Rates Go Down From Here?


It’s no secret mortgage rates are in a bad place right now.

But instead of talking about that all day, let’s talk about how can they get better…

Ultimately, the quickest path lower is a peace deal in the Middle East.  Note that I said quickest, not easiest. It’s hard to sit here and say that it’ll be easy.

And it’s also important to point out that they always rise faster than they fall, so it’ll take time even if there’s a resolution there.

The other main component is labor, but you don’t want weakness there because it hurts the housing market, not to mention the individual who loses their job.

Mortgage Rates Need a Peace Deal to Move Lower

Ultimately, mortgage rates need peace if they’re to move back to their recent lows.

That’s why mortgage rates rose to begin with, so it’s really the only way for them to erase this big move higher.

If you recall, the 30-year fixed had been at 3.5-year lows prior to the conflict at the end of February and early March.

Just as we finally got our long-awaited sub-6% mortgage rate, poof, it was gone in a flash.

It was the cruelest of scenarios, but kind of what you expect if you’ve been around the mortgage industry long enough…

When things finally start looking good, they seem to disappear just like that. And that’s exactly what happened.

While there was some hope in April after a bad March, May is when things finally got real for mortgage rates.

I had been warning folks that things were going to get worse, and that the $100+ barrel oil was going to find its way into inflation numbers and push mortgage rates higher.

But for a while, everyone was attempting to “look through” it all and bank on it being transitory.

We were also told repeatedly that the whole Iranian operation would be wrapped up in days, or a week, or just a few more days.

Now it’s feeling a lot like a quagmire with no end in sight. And the market finally decided to take it seriously.

That’s why you have the near-7% mortgage rates again. Reality set in.

So it’s pretty clear the best and fastest way to get lower mortgage rates is for the U.S. and Iran to come to some sort of deal. And quickly.

Good Chance Mortgage Rates Get Worse Before They Get Better

Now before things improve, they could get worse. It’s just one of those things where the trend is not your friend.

And it takes time for a reversal to take place. In the meantime, you get even higher rates.

So much higher can they go you ask?

Well, for a while I’ve been pointing to 6.875%, maybe a low 7-handle for the 30-year fixed. That looks fairly likely at this juncture.

After all, we’re around 6.75% now so it’s only an .125% to a .25% away. Yikes!

It seemed crazy a few weeks ago, when I first started bringing this up, but now it’s probably looking like a rather conservative estimate.

Funny how that works.

There Will Be Good Days and Bad Days for Rates

Just remember that mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line up or down.

There will always be ebbs and flows, good days, bad days, good weeks and bad weeks.

That means there will be opportunity at times to lock in a lower mortgage rate and you’ll need to stay vigilant if you’re shopping rates.

In addition, remember that when there’s a lot of volatility in mortgage rates, rate dispersion is higher.

This means there’s a wider range of rates being offered by banks, lenders, credit unions, etc. So be sure to gather multiple quotes and negotiate even more aggressively!

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

[CA] Exchange Bank $150 Checking Bonus


Offer at a glance

  • Maximum bonus amount:
  • Availability: Must be resident of CA. Maybe select counties?
  • Direct deposit required: Yes or ACH credit of $500+ for three consecutive months
  • Additional requirements: Enroll in eStatements, open with $100+
  • Hard/soft pull: Unknown 
  • ChexSystems: Unknown
  • Credit card funding: Unknown
  • Monthly fees: None 
  • Early account termination fee: Unknown
  • Household limit: None listed
  • Expiration date: 06/01/2026

The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • Exchange Bank is offering a bonus of $150 when you open a new everyday checking account with a $100 opening deposit and complete the following requirements:
    • Have at least one monthly direct deposit or ACH transfer credit totaling $500 or more deposited into the account for 3 consecutive months
    • Enroll in and select to receive eStatements

The Fine Print

  • To receive $150 cash bonus: Open a new Everyday Checking account (subject to approval) by 06/01/2026.
  • Fulfill the following three (3) requirements, beginning either in the month of account opening or the immediately following month: 1.) Open a new Everyday Checking account with a minimum opening deposit of $100. Current or former Everyday Checking account owners (including joint owners) within the last 60 days are not eligible. 2.) Have at least one (1) qualifying ACH credit totaling $500 or more per month, in aggregate, deposited into your Everyday Checking account for three consecutive months.
  • Qualifying ACH credits include direct deposits or government benefit payments; and 3.) Enroll and receive electronic statements for your Everyday Checking account. Cash bonus will be paid to the open, eligible account within 150 days after account opening and after all promotional requirements have been met.
  • The account must have an available balance greater than zero at the time of payout to receive the bonus.
  • The bonus will be credited to the qualifying account and reported as interest for tax purposes. Any applicable taxes associated with the bonus are the responsibility of the account owner.
  • To the extent required by law, Exchange Bank will report the total value of this bonus to the IRS on Form 1099-INT (or Form 1042-S, if applicable) for the tax year in which the bonus was paid.
  • This is not an interest-bearing account. Exchange Bank employees and board members are ineligible. One bonus per account.
  • Offer may change or be discontinued at any time without prior notice. Terms, conditions, restrictions, and fees may apply.
  • All bank account bonuses are treated as income/interest and as such you have to pay taxes on them

Avoiding Fees

Monthly Fees

This account has no monthly fees. 

Early Account Termination Fee

I wasn’t able to find a fee schedule so unsure if there is any EATF. 

Our Verdict

Feel free to share your experiences with this bank in the comments below. 

Hat tip to reader snailrock

Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:

  • A Beginners Guide To Bank Account Bonuses
  • Bank Account Quick Reference Table (Spreadsheet) (very useful for sorting bonuses by different parameters)
  • PSA: Don’t Call The Bank
  • Introduction To ChexSystems
  • Banks & Credit Unions That Are ChexSystems Inquiry Sensitive
  • What Banks & Credit Unions Do/Don’t Pull ChexSystems?
  • How To Use Our Direct Deposit Page For Bank Bonuses Page
  • Common Bank Bonus Misconceptions + Why You Should Give Them A Go
  • How Many Bank Accounts Can I Safely Open Within A Year For Bank Bonus Purposes?
  • Affiliate Links & Bank Bonuses – We Won’t Be Using Them
  • Complete List Of Ways To Close Bank Accounts At Each Bank
  • Banks That Allow/Don’t Allow Out Of State Checking Applications
  • Bank Bonus Posting Times

Book Review: Principles of Bitcoin


Principles of Bitcoin: Technology, Economics, Politics, and Philosophy. 2025. Vijay Selvam. Columbia University Press.

Decentralized finance continues to evolve. The relative novelty of a digital asset and means of exchange — bitcoin is, after all, a mere sixteen years old — seems to be an unending source of fascination across all strata of society. The mystery and enamorment of the digital currency will likely increase given the heightened attention accorded it from the current American presidential administration, whose proclivity toward less regulation would warrant, demand even, a more nuanced understanding of its multifaceted nature. Bitcoin sits at the axis of technology, economics, politics, and philosophy. Governments, policymakers, economists, information technology professionals, and risk officers will all welcome the author’s rigorous analysis and lucid explication. CFA® charterholders and those aspiring to be will find the treatment of the subject matter a bit different from more conventional valuation processes accorded public and private markets. Then again, bitcoin is anything but conventional.

A skeptic by nature, a trait the author attributes to his métier of law, Vijay Selvam was educated in more traditional concepts of asset valuation to which bitcoin does not lend itself. Yet he brought a deep understanding of complexity to his work with real estate structured products and derivatives, whose performance was the proximate cause of the Great Recession. His involvement in 2008 with the creation of a bailout arrangement for a Wall Street bank in the midst of the debacle left him cynical. Bitcoin made its first appearance shortly thereafter as an alternative to the wreckage of centralized finance recently visited upon economies across the world.

The author’s self-awareness of a cognitive bias against bitcoin and toward conventional finance led him to the realization that a basic reference work on the subject was lacking. Principles of Bitcoin offers a multifaceted evaluation of bitcoin in an attempt to place its reputation and notoriety in a thoughtful context. To understand bitcoin is to understand the ascent of money through the interrelationships between economics, politics, technology, and philosophy. It is as much about unlearning traditional concepts of asset valuation as it is about modifying one’s approach to understanding this new thing.

Bitcoin’s inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto, anguished over how best to describe bitcoin. Cracking its recondite nature requires the use of first-principles thinking, a disassembly of the subject matter into its fundamental components, and a development and progression of one’s understanding of concepts. Indeed, this holistic approach is central to the book and helps shed light on bitcoin’s true purpose and mechanics.

The technical discussion spans five chapters and at times can appear complex, though the author endeavors to make it accessible through numerous references to philosophy, technology, and literature. One may view bitcoin as a scarce digital commodity in some ways akin to gold, whose path-dependent nature and inextricable link to the internet make it a robust asset. Bitcoin’s technology employs cryptography, distributed systems, and economic motivations to produce a digital asset that is robust to the risk of double-spending and transparent on a public ledger. Proof of Work (PoW) ensures a form of decentralized agreement. Bitcoin technology accords it distinct traits of scarcity, divisibility, portability, verifiability, durability, resistance to censorship, and unconfiscatability. Its first-mover status and recognizability, coming on the heels of the global financial crisis, afford it an advantage that would be tough to replicate, let alone beat.

Against the backdrop of monetary history, which has seen (hyper)inflation and currency debasement, and given that some governments weaponize money against their citizenry, bitcoin would appear to be a safe harbor. It is pseudonymous and knows no borders. It is able in many instances to escape confiscatory risk. It has the potential to serve the unbanked millions in far-flung corners of the world where conventional financial services don’t reach. Bitcoin’s decentralized architecture makes any attempt by governments to proscribe it difficult, if not impossible. Its transnational and apolitical features would also appear to address the issue that erstwhile French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing termed the US dollar’s exorbitant privilege, or transactional hegemony, over other currencies. The author argues for bitcoin as a global reserve asset.

Activist Artists Management promotes Anna Kolander to Partner


Activist Artists Management has promoted Anna Kolander to Partner.

Kolander, who is based in Nashville, has spent 13 years at the company, having joined as an assistant in 2013.

She previously served as Senior Manager / Head of A&R at Activist, and is the day-to-day manager for The Lumineers.

In that role, she supports all aspects of the band’s global touring and recording activity, according to the company.

The promotion was announced on Thursday (May 21).

“Anna is a thoughtful and strategic leader,” said Activist founding partner Bernie Cahill.

“We’re proud to welcome her into the Activist partnership.”

Bernie Cahill

Added Cahill: “She brings a rare combination of creative instinct, operational rigor, and deep care for the people she works with.

“We’re proud to welcome her into the Activist partnership.”

Kolander said: “To step into this role after beginning my career alongside the leadership of Activist is incredibly meaningful.

“I’m grateful for the opportunity to have learned from such an incredible team and proud of all we’ve accomplished together.

“I look forward to continuing to support our artists and partners in impactful and innovative ways in the years ahead.”

“To step into this role after beginning my career alongside the leadership of Activist is incredibly meaningful.”

Anna Kolander

Kolander will continue to operate out of Activist‘s Nashville office while taking on an expanded leadership role across the broader business.

She was named Senior Director of A&R/Creative at Activist in 2020, having started at the company as an assistant in the Nashville office.

Activist’s clients include The Lumineers, Bobby Weir, Dwight Yoakam, the Grateful Dead, Dead & Company (co-managed with Azoff/Moir), Leif Vollebekk, The Pretty Reckless, Young the Giant, and Orville Peck, as well as actors Ken Watanabe and David Alan Grier, screenwriter Terry Rossio (co-managed with Lumify Entertainment), known for Pirates of the Caribbean, Godzilla vs. Kong, and Oscar-winning media company Lion Forge Entertainment.

Elsewhere at Activist, Caitlin Stone was promoted to Partner in 2021, and Kristina ‘Red’ Tanner was promoted to Partner in 2022.

The firm, which describes itself as “a full-service management firm founded on the belief that artists, actors, and brands can create positive change in the world,” has offices in Los AngelesNew YorkNashville, and Atlanta.Music Business Worldwide

The 1 AI Stock I’m Buying Every Single Time It Dips Below $10


Most promising artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are already priced at a premium. So while growth rates are high, so are the valuations.

There’s one AI stock, however, that remains a bargain. That’s because most investors don’t yet classify the company as an artificial intelligence business. That’s the case even though the company’s closest competitor is arguably one of the biggest AI stocks on the planet.

If this emerging AI stock falls below $10, I’m going all in for the long haul.

Image source: Rivian.

This Tesla competitor is my favorite AI stock in 2026

Most analysts have come to appreciate the AI potential of Tesla (TSLA +1.95%). Autonomous driving technologies increasingly rely on AI, leading to rapid advancements that could make self-driving cars a reality within the next few years.

Tesla has made direct AI investments, including its $2 billion investment in xAI, Elon Musk’s AI start-up. But it’s really the robotaxi market that is driving Tesla’s $1.3 trillion valuation. Major Tesla investor Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, believes robotaxis could be Tesla’s biggest growth opportunity in its history.

“We think US$8 [trillion] to US$10 trillion for the entire autonomous taxi opportunity throughout the world, from almost nothing,” Wood told investors last year. “That’s how quickly AI is going to cause these things to happen.” Five years from now, Wood thinks that robotaxis will account for 90% of Tesla’s valuation.

Rivian Automotive Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(0.49%) $0.07

Current Price

$14.22

But Tesla isn’t the only EV stock betting big on AI and autonomous driving. Rivian (RIVN +0.49%) is also going all in on AI and autonomy, so much so that it recently pushed out its profit timeline to invest more aggressively. And here’s the thing: Rivian’s market cap is just $17 billion — 98.7% smaller than Tesla’s market cap.

Rivian does have some structural disadvantages versus the likes of Tesla. The company’s smaller size limits its ability to fund large-scale research and development in AI and autonomy.

It’s also taking a different approach to robotaxis. While Tesla is both building its own vehicles and operating its own robotaxi service, Rivian seems content to be an industry supplier. In March, the company announced a deal with Uber Technologies to supply 50,000 Rivian vehicles to power that company’s robotaxi arm.

It will take years until the robotaxi market begins to mature. But investors are clearly bought into Tesla’s vision. Rivian has a similar vision, yet its stock garners a much smaller valuation both in terms of market cap and key valuation metrics like price-to-sales ratio.

Rivian stock doesn’t break below the $10 mark often. But if a market correction brings shares sharply lower, I’m prepared to load up on Rivian stock for the long haul.

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