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Bitcoin Holders Prepare For Matching ECash (ECX) Balances As Multi-Phase Hard Fork Begins


Bitcoin owners are getting ready to claim an equivalent amount of a new cryptocurrency known as eCash, or ECX, as a planned hard fork of the Bitcoin blockchain moves into its initial phase.

The project, developed by LayerTwo Labs under the leadership of longtime Bitcoin contributor Paul Sztorc, aims to create an independent network that mirrors Bitcoin’s transaction history at specific points without altering the original Bitcoin chain in any way.

Rather than launching as a single event, the ECX hard fork is proceeding through three deliberate stages to allow testing, infrastructure preparation, and community familiarization.

The alpha phase activates around Bitcoin block height 963,648, corresponding roughly to August 23, 2026.

During this period, participants can experiment with software, mining, wallet functionality, and trading of temporary practice tokens referred to as pECX or alpha ECX.

These practice units carry no permanent value on their own but can later be burned and redeemed for a portion of the official coins once the full network is live.

A beta stage follows around September 20 at block height approximately 967,680.

This intermediate step is expected to involve greater participation from exchanges, custodians, wallet providers, and miners, providing a more realistic environment for testing operational readiness.

The permanent mainnet release is scheduled for around October 31 at block height near 973,728.

That date coincides with the 18th anniversary of the publication of Satoshi Nakamoto’s original Bitcoin white paper, adding symbolic weight to the full launch.

At the mainnet snapshot, permanent ECX balances will be assigned on a one-to-one basis with Bitcoin holdings at that time for nearly all addresses.

Bitcoin itself remains completely unaffected; holders simply gain an additional asset on the new chain.

The core purpose of ECX is to enable drivechains—opt-in sidechains that support features such as enhanced scalability, privacy, and experimentation—while leaving Bitcoin’s base-layer rules intact.

The new network uses the same SHA-256 proof-of-work mechanism as Bitcoin, with a temporary difficulty reset at activation to facilitate early mining.

Replay protection is available on an opt-in basis through official software, which warns users before transactions; without intentional separation of assets, movements of Bitcoin could affect corresponding ECX holdings.

Most Bitcoin holders who control their private keys at the relevant snapshot heights will automatically receive matching ECX without needing to register or file claims.

A portion of early Satoshi-era coins on the new chain is handled differently to support development, but this applies only to ECX and leaves actual Bitcoin balances untouched.

Holders keeping assets on exchanges should monitor those platforms’ policies, as some may implement temporary freezes or decide independently whether and how to credit the new tokens.

The phased approach gives the ecosystem roughly twelve weeks between the alpha start and the permanent release to identify issues, build support, and prepare tools.

Practice coins earned in the earlier stages can be exchanged for official ECX after mainnet activation, creating incentives for early testing.

While adoption by major infrastructure providers remains an open question and community support has been limited so far, the project positions itself as a way to expand Bitcoin’s capabilities through a separate, compatible ledger.

As the alpha phase begins, attention turns to practical steps: verifying self-custody of keys, reviewing wallet compatibility, and watching for official software releases. The original Bitcoin network continues operating without interruption, and the success of ECX will ultimately depend on participation, liquidity, and the usefulness of its planned sidechains.



Universal Music Poland acquires the Kayax Records catalog and brand, home to recordings by Brodka, Nosowska and Zakopower


Universal Music Poland has acquired the catalog business of Kayax Records.

The agreement, announced on Thursday (August 20), covers global recording rights to the label’s catalog plus the rights to the Kayax Records brand, Universal said.

It also sees Universal Music Poland enter a strategic partnership with Kayax‘s separate management business, Kayax Management, which is not part of the acquisition.

Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed by Universal or Kayax.

Founded in 2001 and based in Warsaw, Kayax Records has a roster that includes Smolik, Zakopower, Nosowska, Krzysztof Zalewski, Natalia Przybysz, Maria Peszek, Brodka, Artur Rojek, Mery Spolsky and Karaś/Rogucki, according to the announcement.

Records issued under the Kayax banner also include albums by Hey, Urszula Dudziak, Reni Jusis, Skubas and The Dumplings.

Kayax lists among its releases Brodka‘s Clashes, Krzysztof Zalewski‘s Złoto, Nosowska‘s Basta, Zakopower‘s Boso, Maria Peszek‘s Maria Awaria and Artur Rojek‘s Składam się z ciągłych powtórzeń.

Kayax puts its catalog at close to 130 albums.

The label also lists singer Kayah‘s 2009 album Skała among its releases.

Kayah said in May 2025, however, that she had recovered master recording rights to her albums released after 2003, and was no longer under a recording contract with Kayax Production & Publishing.

On her account, that would place her post-2003 recordings outside the catalog Universal has acquired.

“This is an exciting transaction for Universal Music Poland. From the very beginning I have admired Kayax Records‘ ability to combine artistic integrity with commercial success, while consistently discovering and nurturing some of the most important voices in contemporary Polish music.

“Combining Universal Music‘s global expertise with the experience of the Kayax Management team will help create new opportunities for both established artists and the next generation of talent.

“Combining Universal Music‘s global expertise with the experience of the Kayax Management team will help create new opportunities for both established artists and the next generation of talent.”

Maciej Kutak, Universal Music Group

“This is another important step in delivering our mission of connecting Polish artists with fans around the world,” said Maciej Kutak, CEO, Universal Music Poland & SVP Central Eastern Europe, Universal Music Group.

Tomasz “Tomik” Grewiński co-founded Kayax Records with Kayah in 2001.

He became sole owner in April 2025 after buying out her stake in Kayax Production & Publishing, the company behind the label.

Grewiński is owner and Managing Director of Kayax Management, which remains an independent company.

“For more than twenty years, we built Kayax Records together with extraordinary artists, creating a catalog that has become an important part of the history of contemporary Polish music.

“I am confident that Universal Music Poland will provide this body of work with the best possible foundation for its continued growth,” said Grewiński.

Kayax Management is entering a new chapter. Together with my team, we want to focus even more on what we do best: developing the careers of the artists we represent and building their personal brands.

“We will continue strengthening our position by providing comprehensive artist management while expanding our roster with promising new talent and the next generation of artists,” Grewiński added.

“We will continue strengthening our position by providing comprehensive artist management while expanding our roster with promising new talent and the next generation of artists.”

Tomasz Grewiński, Kayax Records

Once the transaction completes, Kayax Records will keep its own identity as Universal Music Poland‘s fourth label.

Paweł Tetłak will take the role of Head of Kayax Records, while Jakub Barzak will oversee both Kayax Records and Polydor Recordings Poland.

Kayax said in its own announcement that it will no longer operate as a record label in its previous form, and is switching to a distribution and licensing model, with management and distribution as the pillars of the business.

The deal arrives during a run of Universal transactions in Europe.

UMG closed its USD $775 million acquisition of Downtown Music Holdings in February, after the European Commission cleared the deal on condition that Curve Royalty Systems was divested.

Before that, Universal acquired Netherlands-based music company 8Ball in 2025, having completed the full buyout of Belgium-founded [PIAS] the previous fall.

Universal Music Poland sits within Universal Music Central Europe.

Frank Briegmann is Chairman & CEO of that division and of Deutsche Grammophon.

Kutak was named CEO of Universal Music Poland and SVP, Central Eastern Europe in November 2021, with the role effective from January 1, 2022.

The role gave him responsibility for UMG operations in Greece, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary.

UMG Chief Operating Officer Boyd Muir told analysts on the company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call on March 5 that UMG had bought 18 businesses in high-potential growth markets over the prior three years, describing the deals as “all relatively small” and focused on local-language repertoire.

On the same call, UMG Chairman and CEO Sir Lucian Grainge named geographic expansion as one of four pillars of the company’s next phase of growth, alongside artist and label services, superfan initiatives and AI.

Poland‘s recorded music revenues grew 22.3% YoY in 2024, according to the IFPI‘s Music in the EU report, behind only Sweden, Romania and Hungary in the bloc.

Sweden‘s 30.2% was inflated by a one-off private copying levy payment covering multiple years, the report noted; excluding that levy, its growth was around 6.5%.

Strip out that distortion and Poland was the third fastest-growing recorded music market in the EU in 2024, behind only Romania and Hungary.

The IFPI said the fastest-growing markets tended to be those in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.

The same report found that domestic artists took an average 50.9% of the places on countrywide year-end top 10 lists across the EU.Music Business Worldwide

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NCAA Data: The Niche Sports With The Best College Admissions Odds In 2026


Getting into and paying for college can feel like daunting tasks, especially in today’s competitive environment. Playing a niche sport is one way to give yourself an edge when applying to a college that might be difficult to get into or a scholarship that many are vying for. Fewer high school kids play fencing than play basketball, so the college roster spots are easier to get, and the athletic tip helps at schools where acceptance rates keep falling.

That pitch still holds up. But the mechanics underneath it changed more between 2024 and 2026 than they had in the previous two decades, and most of what you’ll read about niche sports online is now describing a system that no longer exists. If you’re a high schooler thinking about how you’ll pay for college, you need the current version.

Here’s what actually changed, which sports the NCAA’s own data says give you the best shot, and where the numbers get abused, plus how it fits with everything else in the college admissions process.

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The House v. NCAA Settlement Changed The Rules

On June 6, 2025, the $2.8 billion House v. NCAA settlement. It took effect for the 2025-26 academic year, and it replaced the NCAA’s sport-by-sport scholarship limits with sport-by-sport roster limits. Under the old setup, men’s swimming had 9.9 scholarships to split across a roster of 40 walk-ons and partial-aid athletes.

Under the new setup there is no scholarship cap at all (every athlete on the roster can be funded) but the roster is hard-capped at 30. That distinction matters enormously if you’re weighing an athletic scholarship against your other aid options.

The roster caps land differently by sport. Rowing (women’s) got 68. Equestrian got 50. Men’s lacrosse got 48, women’s lacrosse 38. Field hockey got 27. Fencing and water polo got 24 each. Swimming and diving got 30. Basketball, by comparison, got 15 and tennis got 10, which is why the scholarship math in some sports is so brutal.

The scope limit almost nobody mentions: roster limits only bind schools that opted into the settlement. Fifty-four Division I schools opted out, including all eight Ivy League schools. Division II and Division III aren’t affected at all. So when someone tells you walk-on spots are gone, ask which school they’re talking about, as the answer changes the whole admissions calculation.

There was a grandfathering provision, and it’s closed. Anyone starting college in fall 2026 or later faces the hard caps with no exception, which is worth factoring into your application timeline.

The net effect is genuinely mixed. Roster spots at opted-in D1 schools got tighter, and dozens of Division I Olympic sports programs have been cut, merged, or reclassified since the settlement — Front Office Sports counted 32 by June 2025, and the number has kept climbing.

But funded spots expanded sharply: men’s lacrosse went from 12.6 scholarships to 48 fundable roster spots, women’s rowing from 20 to 68, men’s swimming from 9.9 to 30. 

How To Read Niche Sport Admissions Odds

Small high school participation numbers do not automatically mean good college odds. This is the single most common error in niche sports content, and it’s as easy to check as any claim about FAFSA income limits.

The NCAA publishes the Estimated Probability of Competing in College Athletics (PDF File). The current version uses 2024-25 figures and was updated in March 2026. Here’s what it says for the sports usually labeled “niche,” alongside a few mainstream ones for contrast:

Sport

HS Participants

NCAA Participants 

HS -> NCAA

Ice Hockey (W)

9,589

3,074

32.1%

Lacrosse (M)

113,696

16,691

14.7%

Ice Hockey (M)

32,253

4,558

14.1%

Lacrosse (W)

99,292

13,906

14.0%

Field Hockey (W)

50,764

6,610

13.0%

Swimming (W)

138,303

12,998

9.4%

Baseball (M)

472,598

41,580

8.8%

Swimming (M)

119,102

10,131

8.5%

Water Polo (W)

18,023

1,333

7.4%

Water Polo (M)

21,756

1,245

5.7%

Basketball (W)

356,240

16,823

4.7%

Basketball (M)

540,704

19,617

3.6%

Look at water polo. Roughly 20,000 high schoolers play it nationally, and yet a boy’s odds of playing in college are worse than a baseball player’s. The college programs are just as scarce as the high school ones. The ratio is what matters, and it’s the same reasoning you’d apply to any merit aid decision.

One more caveat before the sport list: the NCAA table excludes fencing, rowing, equestrian, gymnastics, skiing, rifle, and triathlon, because NFHS doesn’t collect comparable high school participation data for sports most high schools don’t sponsor. Our data points below are from other sources, and some are very old.

The Sports Worth Your Time In 2026

Women’s Ice Hockey

Roughly one in three high school girls who play ice hockey competes in college, and nearly one in ten reaches Division I. Nothing else in the NCAA is close. The catch is cost — ice hockey was the most expensive youth sport in the Aspen Institute’s national survey, and the club pathway starts young. If your family is saving in a 529 plan, understand that hockey often eats the equivalent of a year of contributions before the recruiting even starts.

Fencing

Learning how to deftly attack with an épée might get you admitted into one of the 46 schools across the country that offer varsity fencing. Schools like Harvard, Boston College, Yale, and the U.S. Air Force Academy have fencing. And they might even provide you with a scholarship.

In 2018, the odds of getting a scholarship for fencing were 22:1 for men and 13:1 for women. Compare that to the odds of 57:1 for men and 43:1 for women who want to play basketball. As you can see, opportunities abound if you can master the blade.

However, it’s important to note that fencing offers less potential than it did in the past, as Brown discontinued its varsity fencing program for men in 2020, and similar cuts may happen at more schools in the future.

Lacrosse

Lacrosse remains the best combination of odds and access. About 645 U.S. colleges field varsity lacrosse teams across NCAA divisions, NAIA, and junior college, and roughly 14-15% of high school players compete somewhere at the college level.

Post-settlement, men’s lacrosse jumped from 12.6 scholarships to 48 fundable roster spots, which was one of the largest funding expansions of any sport. It’s also heavily concentrated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which is worth knowing if you’re comparing in-state and out-of-state costs.

Water Polo

Hop in the pool, and you might be surprised at how it can help you get into a good college. Cal State campuses offer varsity water polo teams, along with a number of other schools, including Arizona State University, Chapman University, Pepperdine, and the U.S. Naval Academy. There are 125 schools in total that offer varsity water polo teams.

But what are the odds that a high school water polo player will make the cut for college? A man has 13:1 odds of getting onto a team in college, while a woman has odds of 11:1. Making a roster for an NCAA Division I team has more difficult odds, at 34:1 for men and 29:1 for women.

The significant difference in the chances of making a Division I team versus a team in any of the three divisions highlights an important factor when considering niche sports for college admissions or even scholarships: Sometimes, applying to a smaller school might make sense. Even at a non-Division I school, you might still be able to get a scholarship, albeit likely a smaller one than you would for Division I.

Related: Best Extracurricular Activities For College Applications

Field Hockey

Around 288 schools sponsor varsity field hockey, and 13% of high school players go on to compete in college. Stanford, Georgetown, and a long list of Northeast liberal arts colleges carry programs, which puts field hockey squarely in the zone where athletic recruiting overlaps with selective admissions. The new roster cap is 27 at opted-in schools.

Equestrian

Equestrian has about 77 varsity programs and the second-largest roster limit in women’s sports at 50. It’s also the sport where the cost-benefit math is worst. Board, lease, training, and show fees run into five figures annually with no national survey even attempting to track them. 

As with many other niche sports for college admissions, schools considered more prestigious, like Auburn, Dartmouth, Cornell, and Sarah Lawrence, are more likely to offer varsity equestrian teams. As a result, it’s important to weigh the scholarship against the potential cost of attendance. For example, tuition alone at Cornell University is more than $60,000 before factoring in grants and scholarships. A $16,000 athletic scholarship at a school like that won’t make much of a dent on its own.

On the other hand, a $16,000 scholarship at Auburn University would more than cover the cost of that school’s in-state tuition price tag of about $6,300. And it would leave plenty of room to cover the $7,700 needed for on-campus housing and food as well.

Rowing

The sport of rowing made headlines in 2020 as part of a college admissions scandal in which certain students received admissions help by being falsely portrayed as rowing team recruits. Other niche sports, like sailing, were also caught up in the scandal.

The incidents underscored the advantages that niche athletes have when they apply to certain colleges. Coaches of sports like rowing and sailing may find it challenging to fill their college rosters. So if a student is recruited for these teams, they may have a leg up in the college admissions process, even if they might otherwise be passed over based on academic merits alone.

Rowing carries the largest women’s roster limit in the NCAA at 68, and roughly 151 schools sponsor women’s crew. 

Swimming And Diving

Swimming and diving are often lumped together for the purposes of admissions statistics. The odds of making a swimming or diving team at any college are 13:1 for men and 12:1 for women. However, the odds of getting a scholarship are 47:1 for women and 69:1 for men. These stats indicate that swimming and diving may be useful sports for getting into a school you’re interested in, but it’s far more challenging to study on a swimming or diving scholarship.

With 687 schools supporting a varsity swim team, you have the chance to get into schools at various levels. There are even scholarships available at the junior college level for swimming. If you’re looking for ways to save money in college, the combination of starting at a community college and getting a swimming scholarship could be a smart strategy.

Women’s Wrestling

This is the biggest change. The NCAA approved women’s wrestling as its 91st championship on January 17, 2025, with the inaugural championship held in winter 2026.

There were 111 women’s wrestling teams across all three divisions heading into that season, and high school participation crossed 74,000 girls in 2024-25 — up 15%, with roughly 1,000 new schools adding programs. Supply and demand are both climbing fast, which usually means the aid opportunities arrive before the applicant crush does.

Acrobatics & Tumbling And Stunt

On January 16, 2026, the NCAA approved four new championships: acrobatics and tumbling and stunt (both across all three divisions, inaugural spring 2027), Division II bowling (spring 2028), and Division III women’s wrestling (spring 2028).

Both acro and stunt cleared the 40-school threshold. Their roster limits are among the largest of any women’s sport. For a competitive cheer or gymnastics athlete who assumed there was no college path, this is a door that opened in the last eighteen months — and it’s early enough that building the rest of the application still matters as much as the sport does.

Flag Football

Flag football is now an NCAA emerging sport for women, alongside equestrian, rugby, and triathlon. It’s also the fastest-growing high school sport in the country: 68,847 girls played in 2024-25, a 60% jump, with about 1,000 schools adding it.

NCAA sponsorship crossed 40 schools in 2025 and was projected near 60 by spring 2026. Championship status isn’t there yet, but the trajectory is the clearest of any sport on this list, and it costs a fraction of what an ice rink or a horse does — which matters if you’re trying to graduate without student loan debt.

Esports (Read This Before You Count On It)

The earlier version of this piece treated esports as a growth story, and that framing is now wrong. Anyone counting on it should have a backup funding plan. Miami University (one of the first varsity collegiate esports programs) shut down in June 2026. Illinois State dissolved its varsity program in May 2025 despite five Overwatch championship appearances.

Saint Louis University closed its program in August 2024. Maryville, UC Irvine, Simpson College, and Northeastern have all cut or restructured. Salt Lake Community College esports lost scholarship access in budget cuts.

High school esports participation is still rising: 30,440 players in 2024-25, up nearly 3,000. But the college side is consolidating, and the widely circulated figures for “number of varsity programs” and “total esports scholarship dollars” trace back to aggregator sites that contradict themselves. If a school offers you esports money, take it. Just don’t build a college funding plan around a sector that’s currently shedding programs.

The Cost Reality Nobody Prices In

The Aspen Institute and Utah State’s Families in Sport Lab put average annual family spending on a child’s primary sport at $1,016 in 2024, up 46% over five years. Their older by-sport breakdown (2018-19 data) had ice hockey at $2,583, skiing at $2,249, field hockey at $2,125, and lacrosse at $1,289, against an all-sport average of $693. Apply the 46% escalation and hockey plausibly runs north of $3,700 a year now. Multiply by eight to ten years of club play and you’ve spent more than the athletic scholarship will ever return.

Travel is the largest line item, not equipment. And there’s no national survey data at all for fencing, rowing, equestrian, or water polo club costs. Aspen’s own State of Play research documents that children from the wealthiest households play their primary sport more frequently than everyone else.

The niche sport advantage is, substantially, a purchased advantage.

Bottom Line

Niche sports still work as an admissions strategy, and the data behind them is better than it’s ever been. Women’s ice hockey, lacrosse, field hockey, and rowing carry real odds advantages. Women’s wrestling, acrobatics and tumbling, stunt, and flag football are the genuinely new openings. These sports only gained NCAA status within the last eighteen months, where the programs exist and the applicant crush hasn’t arrived yet. Those are also the sports where merit and athletic aid are least picked over.

If your kid already loves the sport, the odds above are a genuine edge. If they don’t, there are cheaper ways to build a compelling college application, starting with the extracurriculars that admissions officers actually weigh.

Editor: Ashley Barnett

Reviewed by: Robert Farrington

The post NCAA Data: The Niche Sports With The Best College Admissions Odds In 2026 appeared first on The College Investor.

Russia is suffering from a slow-motion bank run as the Kremlin scavenges for war funding



A financial crisis that has long been predicted by Russia experts and Kremlin insiders appears to have finally arrived as banks see depositors scramble to pull out their money amid fears it may be seized.

In the first half of August, Russians withdrew $3.4 billion (286.4 billion rubles), according to central bank data cited by the Washington Post. That’s after $7.3 billion was withdrawn in July and $4.5 billion in June.

“Drones are flying. Things are burning down. Nervousness is growing. And people’s everyday wisdom may be kicking in that they need to have cash under their pillow and not somewhere in banks where it may never be returned,” a former finance official told the Post, adding that banks have much of their capital tied in loans elsewhere.

The situation echoes the iconic scene from the movie It’s a Wonderful Life, when panicked depositors show up at the Bailey Bros. Building & Loan demanding their cash, only to learn that it’s not all there.

The bank run in Russia may not be as dramatic or precipitous. But the stampede out of lenders this year is on track to nearly double the $24.7 billion pace that was seen in 2022, when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine.

Back then, Russia was flush with cash and expected to pay for a short war. But more than four years later, the invasion has turned into a quagmire that has crushed the Kremlin’s finances.

The budget is sinking into deeper deficits, the sovereign wealth fund has been nearly depleted, and tax hikes are straining consumers who are already struggling with high inflation.

Moscow has directed banks to offer capital to the defense industry, but many of those loans turned into bad debts. Now, the financial sector’s loss of deposits has created a liquidity crunch so severe that it’s threatening Russia’s ability to fund its war.

Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at top retail lender Sberbank, told Russian radio that many banks don’t have cash on hand to buy government bonds.

In fact, the finance ministry halted bond auctions indefinitely last month amid higher borrowing costs and weak investor demand. The auctions are the Kremlin’s main source of domestic borrowing to fill its budget deficit, which hit $76 billion at the end of July.

As the government’s sources of funding dry up, ordinary Russians fear their money may be next. The leader of Russia’s Communist Party told parliament recently that 130 trillion rubles held in bank accounts should be “mobilized” to address the country’s economic and budget woes.

Meanwhile, the finance ministry is preparing legislation that could let it gain access to $40 billion in pension savings held in privately managed funds.

That’s after Russian oligarchs have seen their businesses nationalized, with $51.5 billion in assets seized for the state last year.

“If the government needs cash, Putin will just do a grab for assets. He doesn’t care,” an associate of a Russian billionaire told the Post. “And that’s where I think it’s heading.”

Warnings about Russia’s finances have been building for months. In June 2025, Russian banks raised red flags on a potential debt crisis as high interest rates weighed on borrowers’ ability to pay off loans. Also that month, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs warned many companies were in “a pre-default situation.”

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a state-backed Russian think tank, said in December the country could face a banking crisis by October if loan troubles worsen and depositors pull out their funds.

Earlier this year, Russian officials told Putin that a financial crisis could hit by the summer amid spiraling inflation. 

In May, sources told the Russian newspaper Izvestia that nearly 25% of the bond market is now at risk of default as businesses that borrowed at low rates must refinance at much higher ones. The volume of debt that needs to be rolled over this year is about double from last year, adding pressure on cash flows and raising competition for liquidity.

And according to a European intelligence report this past June, Russian lenders are vulnerable due to soaring indebtedness and deteriorating loans. It said the number of Russians who declared bankruptcy last year jumped by almost a third to more than 500,000.

“The situation creates the illusion of a dynamic economy ⁠that, in reality, conceals an explosive situation which an economic shock, such as an ambitious package of sanctions against banks … could trigger,” the report added, according to Reuters.

The worsening state of Russia’s financial sector mirrors its performance on the battlefield. New Ukrainian tactics and drones have halted Russia’s advance, decimated the country’s oil infrastructure, and pushed casualties above the replacement rate.

And just like Russia’s search for money to seize, reports indicate the military is preparing to ramp up the number of men it seizes to fill the ranks.

Authorities have already been using coercive tactics to find fresh troops. Now, sources told the Wall Street Journal that the military is preparing plans and procedures for a wider mobilization.

But because of an expected political backlash, the Kremlin may wait until after parliamentary elections next month to announce it.

An earlier mobilization in September 2022 set off a mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of men, who fled to neighboring countries like Georgia and Kazakhstan.

Rumors of a new one have already sent cross-border traffic soaring. In addition, property prices have jumped recently in Georgia and Armenia in anticipation of another exodus, real estate agents told the Journal.

Despite Good Inflation Reports, Mortgage Rates Stuck Near 52-Week Highs


It feels like nothing will really help mortgage rates move lower at the moment.

Sure, they came down a handful of basis points from a week ago, but the movement was pretty negligible.

The 30-year fixed hit a fresh 52-week high in late July, at around 6.875%, but remains around 6.75%.

In other words, rates are an eighth of a percent below their highs, this despite good news on the inflation front.

So what’s it going to take to get mortgage rates materially lower?

Mortgage Rates Appear Stuck Near Their Highs

As noted, we had a pair of good reports last week in terms of inflation moderating.

These would typically be both bond and mortgage rate-friendly, and they did result in rates easing a bit.

However, that’s kind of the rub. Rates only eased a bit. They didn’t get a big drop that many probably hoped for.

And let’s face it, inflation is the focal point right now for mortgage rates (and the wider economy).

Labor took a back seat to inflation once the Iran conflict got underway.

Conversely, last year seemed to be largely about the labor market because inflation appeared to be finally under control.

Enter late February and an unexpected conflict breaks out between the U.S. and Iran.

That sent oil prices markedly higher, leading to a second wave of inflation concerns.

It also reopened the door for Fed rate hikes after they had cut rates six successive times (to offset the 11 prior hikes).

Many were expecting additional cuts when 2026 began. Then another geopolitical event took place and cuts turned to possible hikes.

It seemed a hike was just a matter of time until we got both a weak jobs report for July and two favorable inflation reports last week.

Both CPI and PPI came in at or below consensus, allowing the market to breathe a sigh of relief.

It also greatly reduced the odds of a Fed rate hike in September, which had been odds-on a week ago and now the odds of standing pat are the favorite at 65%, per CME FedWatch.

So that was certainly a win and pushes a hike further out or completely out if the data continues to be favorable.

But given the limited movement in both mortgage rates and bond yields, it’s a little disconcerting.

It makes you wonder what it’s going to take to get mortgage rates back on the lower end of the 6% range, where they stood before the war broke out.

Are Mortgage Rates Mostly Higher Because of Iran?

That begs, or perhaps answers the question, are mortgage rates higher because of Iran?

The long and short of it is probably yes. While there are other factors, such as the massive AI capex taking place and big fiscal deficits, it’s mostly Iran.

The situation with Iran was the only major shift since late February and early March.

If you look at a mortgage rate chart, rates surged higher in early March as the conflict grew in intensity.

The 30-year fixed climbed from sub-6% to as high as 6.875%, and now sits at 6.75%.

Which brings me back to the point of this post. While rates have eased some, they remain near their worst levels since the conflict began.

And it seems the only way to get them meaningfully lower is progress on that front.

We’ve already gotten the cool jobs report and the better-than-expected inflation reports.

Those have only stopped mortgage rates from going any higher.

Without a solution to the Middle East conflict, mortgage rates likely won’t be able to get back to 6.50% or lower anytime soon.

Read on: Check out my mortgage rate calculator to compare different rates with ease.

(photo: lorenz.markus97)

Colin Robertson
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The Missing Piece of Your Transformation Strategy



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Apple Pay Amex Offer: Easy $10 Credit with Three Purchases


 

Apple Pay Amex Offer

🔄️ Update: This Apple Pay Amex Offer is available again through 10/15/2026. Check your accounts.

Check your American Express credit cards for a new Amex Offer that can get you a $10 credit for using Apply Pay. This is an easy one that we have seen multiple times in the past and it requires just three transactions. You can find this offer in your Amex consumer and business credit cards. Check out the details of the offer below.

Offer Details

With this Amex Offer, you will earn a one-time $10 statement credit by using your enrolled eligible Card to make three purchases using Apple Pay on your eligible mobile device by 5/21/2026.

Offer and availability may vary by cardholder. Just login to your American Express account(s) to see if you are eligible to add this offer to your card(s).

Apple Pay Amex Offer

Important Terms

  • Offer valid only for an eligible purchase made with your enrolled American Express Card using Apple Pay on your eligible mobile device.
  • Offer valid at in-store and in-app merchant locations that accept the American Express® Card in the fifty United States, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands with point-of-sale terminals that process Apple Pay transactions.
  • If you cannot use Apple Pay for the purchase for any reason, your purchase will not qualify for the offer.
  • Eligible purchases do not include fees or interest charges, purchases of travelers checks, purchases or reloading of prepaid cards, purchases of gift cards, person-to-person payments, or other cash equivalents. 

About Amex Offers

Amex Offers are an extra perk on all American Express credit cards, charge cards, and even prepaid cards. You can see these offers in your accounts either as a statement credit or extra Membership Rewards points for spending a certain amount at eligible merchants. You will need to add the offer to a specific card first, and then use that card to get the credit. Here are a few things you should know:

Guru’s Wrap-Up

This is an easy bonus for those with Apple devices. Just add the offer to your eligible cards, and use that card with Apple Pay three times to receive a $10 credit. There’s no minimum purchase requirement for the three  transactions. So you can even make three $1 purchases to trigger the credit.

Usually, popular Amex Offers don’t’ last long, so it’s best to add this one to your cards right away. Let me know if you have it!

HT: Daniel in DDG Facebook Group

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Why Social Security Can’t Be the Center of Your Retirement Income Plan


I was talking to some friends the other day about juggling college and retirement savings, and one of them joked, “What retirement savings?” But as someone who writes about retirement for a living, I didn’t find the joke all that funny.

The reality is that far too many people neglect their retirement savings and plan to fall back on Social Security instead. And while there’s nothing wrong with factoring those benefits into a retirement income plan, they shouldn’t be the focus of it.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why you can’t rely too much on Social Security

One big misconception about Social Security is that it’s meant to replace most or all of your pre-retirement paycheck. In reality, if you earn a pretty average wage, you can expect Social Security to replace about 40% of it.

Now, think about your current expenses. Some might drop in retirement. But do you really think you can afford a 60% pay cut? If the answer is no, then you’ll need a more robust income plan — one that doesn’t mean getting most or all of your money from Social Security.

This is especially important today given that Social Security faces the possibility of benefit cuts, and soon. The program’s Trustees recently reported that benefits could face a 22% reduction as early as 2032 if lawmakers don’t intervene.

Congress has never allowed Social Security to cut benefits before, so there’s a good chance a broad reduction will be preventable this time around, too. But that’s not something any pre-retiree should bank on.

Make a solid effort to save

Trust me when I say I understand that saving for retirement isn’t easy — not when you’re balancing other expenses and persistently rising costs. But if you don’t try to save a decent chunk of money for retirement, you might end up cash-strapped down the line — even if Social Security doesn’t cut benefits at all.

If you haven’t begun funding an IRA or 401(k), an easy way to get started is to contribute a small amount automatically each month. It can be as little as $25 or $50. The key is to get into the habit of saving and then increase contributions as you’re able to.

In fact, if you’re behind on savings and can only manage, say, $50 a month this year, pledge to bank your entire raise next year. And then repeat the following year.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with incorporating Social Security into your retirement income plan, because even if benefits are cut, you should still be able to receive the bulk of what you’re entitled to. But making those benefits your sole or primary source of retirement income is a move you might sorely regret.