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Comment fonctionnent les marchés financiers ? | Planète finance | ARTE



Alors que le monde de la finance reste pour la plupart d’entre nous un univers parallèle opaque, décryptage d’un grand casino virtuel qui influence profondément notre existence. Dans ce volet : la “planète finance” fixe le prix du marché mondial de nombreuses matières premières, comme les céréales, l’or ou encore le pétrole brut, dont la demande fluctuante détermine le cours.

Le cours du pétrole brut s’effondre en 2020 avec les confinements successifs de la pandémie de Covid-19. Les négociants ont dû ainsi gérer une surproduction massive, les puits continuant à produire malgré l’arrêt brutal de la consommation, car leur fermeture aurait coûté trop cher. Une fois les entrepôts terrestres saturés, une part des réserves mondiales a dû être stockée dans les cuves des pétroliers en mer. L’or noir s’est vu alors quasiment relégué au rang de déchet, ses détenteurs cherchant à s’en débarrasser à tout prix, quitte à payer des acheteurs. Aux États-Unis, le prix du baril est ainsi brièvement devenu négatif. Comment un marché peut-il dérailler à ce point, et avec quelles conséquences ?

Rouages et paradoxes
Nébuleuse opaque de chiffres pour la plupart d’entre nous, le monde de la finance, en croissance constante, fait parler de lui lorsque les marchés connaissent des crises ou des crashs. Pourtant, cette “planète” inconnue, dominée par le désir et la peur, mérite toute notre attention. Que révèlent les fluctuations des cours du pétrole et des autres matières premières ? Pourquoi peut-on faire fortune en pariant sur la faillite d’une entreprise ? Que recouvrent les “obligations catastrophes”, ces investissements risqués amenés à prendre de l’ampleur avec le changement climatique ? Nourrie de témoignages de traders et d’éclairages d’experts internationaux, cette ambitieuse série en six épisodes décrypte avec pédagogie les rouages et les paradoxes d’un grand casino virtuel où le cynisme est roi, et qui influence profondément notre existence.

Série documentaire (Pays-Bas, 2022, 53mn)

Disponible jusqu’au 30/09/2026
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Argentines once drank 90 liters of wine a year. Now they’re down to 15 — and 1,100 vineyards have already closed



Argentina’s once thriving wine industry is facing its worst crisis in more than 15 years, with record-low domestic consumption, dwindling exports and low-yielding crops.

Against this sobering reality, hundreds of wine enthusiasts still gathered last week in Mendoza, the heart of Argentina’s wine region, to celebrate the annual National Wine Harvest Festival. Attendees watched dance performances, enjoyed live music and voted for the new queen of the Vendimia festival.

The festival was marking its 90th year as domestic wine consumption in Argentina plummeted to an all-time low of 15.7 liters (4.1 gallons) per person in 2025, according to the National Institute of Viticulture, or INV. Compare that to 1970, when Argentines consumed as much as 90 liters (24 gallons) per person annually.

Furthermore, 1,100 vineyards have shut down across the country and 3,276 hectares (8,095 acres) of grape production have vanished.

Fabián Ruggieri, president of the Argentine Wine Corp trade group, attributes the drop largely to a “sharp decline in purchasing power” that began in 2023. This trend, he said, is most acute among middle- and low-income consumers who traditionally consumed wine on a daily basis.

For Federico Gambetta, director of the Altos Las Hormigas winery, a medium-sized winery in Mendoza, the crisis is exacerbated by a shift in consumption patterns.

“People no longer consume wine en masse,” said Gambetta, noting that consumers now seek “coherence” and a sense of purpose behind their purchase.

While older generations favored high-alcohol, full-bodied wines, younger consumers prioritize other attributes, such as “approachability, freshness and lightness” — qualities typically found in white wines and rosés.

One of Gambetta’s red wines — Malbec Los Amantes 2022 — was recently ranked 41st among the world’s 100 best wines. Yet, he notes that starting in 2010 his winery began to modify its wine — once defined by a traditional, heavier profile — to appeal to a new generation of consumers seeking lighter styles.

“Everything has mutated,” Gambetta said. “If you’re not dynamic, you’re lost.”

The U.S. is experiencing a similar shift as the older wine-focused demographic ages out and younger adults fail to fill the gap. A report by Silicon Valley Bank found that millennial and Gen Z drinkers are spread across more categories and drinking less overall, particularly those under 29.

The international market offers little relief. As the world’s 11th largest wine exporter, Argentina saw its exports fall to 193 million liters (51 million gallons) in 2025 — a 6.8% year-on-year decline and the lowest volume since 2004, according to INV.

Ruggieri notes that exports are being hampered by financing issues, high logistics costs and a lack of competitiveness resulting from external tariffs. While its neighbor and wine competitor Chile enjoys free trade agreements with over 60 economies — often reaching markets like China with tariff rates close to zero — Argentina faces tariffs between 10% and 20% in most markets.

Local producers like Gabriel Dvoskin, owner of the 10-hectare Canopus winery that produces approximately 50,000 bottles of wine each year, also struggles with inflation.

Dvoskin, who exports to 15 countries, with the U.S. as his main market, acknowledges that Argentina’s high production costs and rampant inflation place his wines at a disadvantage compared with international competitors.

“Our inflation makes us a bit expensive,” Dvoskin said. “My equivalent in France has a much lower cost for dry inputs — bottles, corks, etc. — than I do.”

For Gambetta, the current crisis reinforces a key lesson for the industry: product quality is non-negotiable.

“Right now, everything is very delicate, and one wrong step can bankrupt you,” Gambetta said.

We Achieved Financial Freedom in 5 Years with Rentals (Doing These 5 Things)


In just around five years, these two investors went from zero rentals to financial freedom through real estate. In their own words, “I want as few doors as possible with as much money as possible.”

That’s what we’re all after as real estate investors. How can we generate the most passive income with the fewest properties, headaches, and issues to deal with? A little over five years ago, Amelia McGee and Grace Gudenkauf were willing to buy any property with any problem, to get in the game. They wanted to quit their jobs, become their own bosses, own their time, and live the lives they imagined—not be tied to a paycheck.

Now, they’ve achieved financial freedom and are sharing the five things that got them there. What’s the one thing Grace and Amelia say every new landlord should put in place at the start? Why is day-one cash flow overrated, and what’s the thing that actually makes you wealthy? Plus, why do they think “growing” to a big portfolio is too risky and not worth the effort?

Grace and Amelia learned all these lessons the hard way over the past five years. Today, we’re giving them to you in under an hour so you can get to financial freedom even faster.

Dave:
These investors reached financial freedom in less than five years of real estate investing. Today, they’re sharing the five most important lessons they’ve learned along the way. Grace Gutenkoff and Amelia McGee started investing less than a decade ago. By 2021, they both left stable jobs to go all in on real estate. In the early years, it felt like the cash would never roll in. They were grinding, grabbing any deal they could get, wondering if they’d made the right choice by leaving their jobs. Then the shift happened. By year three, they started seeing real results, real cash flow. They could start being selective about what properties they bought and which partners they worked with. Now, five years in, they both have stable portfolios and financial freedom. They’re optimizing to achieve the simple, stress-free real estate businesses they envisioned from the beginning. With these five lessons, you can follow the same path and soon have your own life-changing, passive income streams.
Hello again, friends. I’m Dave Meyer. He’s Henry Washington. Our guests today on the show are Grace Gutenkoff and Amelia McGee. You may know them as the founders of The Wire community. They’ve spoken at BP Con and wrote the BiggerPockets book, The Self-Managing Landlord. Grace and Amelia have each accomplished so much in this industry that it’s hard to believe they’ve only been investing in real estate for about five years. But it’s true. They both started separately right around 2019, and we wanted to have them back on today because I think their journeys have been very typical of what most investors experience. At the beginning, it’s a grind. There are strategic pivots. And then if you hang on long enough, you achieve financial freedom. Grace and Amelia have learned a lot of lessons even during their relatively short investing career, and today they’re sharing the five most important lessons that will help you get to that financial freedom even faster.
So let’s bring them on. Grace and Amelia, welcome back to the show. We’re excited to have you here.

Grace:
Thank you.

Amelia:
Thank you.

Dave:
So we’re going to get into these five most important lessons you’ve learned from five years of investing, but actually want to start at the end so people can hear what’s on the other side of all the hard work that you’ve done. So maybe each of you can just summarize your investing careers and where your portfolios stand today. Amelia, let’s start with you.

Amelia:
Absolutely. So I’ve been investing since 2019, and I would say I’m your self-proclaimed bestie girl, big sister real estate investor here to share the lessons we learned over the last five, six, seven years. I invest in Des Moines, Iowa, and I currently have a portfolio of around 40 doors. I’ve dabbled in a little bit of everything, long-term, midterm, and short-term rentals. Grace and I are also the co-authors of the BiggerPockets book, The Self-Managing Landlord. So if you haven’t grabbed that yet, definitely make sure you do that. But I invest in real estate as a means to an end, as a way to live a true life of freedom. And I think that’s truly possible. My goal is to have as few doors as possible and make as much money as possible. So I can’t wait to share all the lessons we’ve learned as your big sister in real estate.

Dave:
Fewest doors as possible, most money as possible. I can get on board with that. All right, Grace, what is your portfolio and maybe give us a little background as well?

Grace:
I’m also an Iowa investor. I’m in Eastern Iowa. Everything I own is a 15-minute radius. I have about 25 doors, just like Amelia. Tried a little bit of everything, and I’ve landed on new construction lately as being the key to all of my problems. Really looking for low maintenance, easy assets that make sure that I don’t have to be anxious looking at my phone and things can just be taken care of. And I can be really proud of my units while doing the things that I love in life, but also been investing for five, six years. And I primarily do right now new construction and midterm and long term.

Dave:
All right. Well, now that you all have been doing this for a couple of years, we want to hear your top five lessons for your first five years in real estate investing. Grace, lead us off. What’s lesson number one?

Grace:
Lesson number one is that systems matter more than you think and should be implemented right away sooner than you think. And here’s a few examples of why. Number one, you have the scrappy investor like Amelia and I who got started, learned how to buy really quickly and quickly built a portfolio. And it wasn’t until things started to get really crazy and maybe slipped through the cracks that we realized that systems mattered. And we do talk a lot about what systems specifically we think you should have in the self-managing landlord. But on the other hand, there’s also the investor who maybe only has one rental. You get a tenant, you put the tenant in, they’re amazing. They stay there for 10 years. And then when they leave, you have no clue how to get another tenant because you didn’t write anything down. You don’t have any SOPs and you don’t have any systems.

Henry:
I learned this lesson pretty early on. I probably didn’t implement my learnings from this lesson as early as I should have, but I still to this day remember my first few rentals, I didn’t care how people paid me rent. I was so blown away that people actually wanted to pay me rent. And then when I got to like five doors and I realized I was running around at the first of every month, between the fifth of every month to multiple houses and going to the bank four times and realizing I didn’t remember who paid what. It was a nightmare. And that’s when I started looking at property management systems and that made my life a whole lot easier. And I was like, oh, there’s got to be other systems then. Why am I doing all this so manually? But when you’re new, especially when you’re trying to get proof of concept, I was like, yeah, any way I can get the money, pay me the money.
But systems definitely change things for me. I think the hard part for new investors is knowing what systems they need first and what makes sense in terms of a price point for them.

Amelia:
I think that we would probably all be in agreement here that the very first system that you need is a strong property management software. Like you were saying, Henry, running around and collecting rent every which way gets exhausting real quick. After the dopamine hit runs off of getting your first three rent checks from a tenant, you’re like, oh man, this is way more work than I bargained for. So a property management software that not only is able to collect rent and e-sign leases, but also has a strong maintenance request department. I think that’s really important. If your tenants are texting you, Facebook messaging you, emailing you, calling you, literally all of Instagram messaging, that is so disorganized. And honestly, it provides a poor experience for your tenants. And our ultimate goal is to keep tenants as happy as possible so that they stay for as long as possible.
Because if we have a lot of turnovers, number one, our cashflow gets cut and significantly gets cut down. And number two, it’s just draining and you’re going to hit burnout. So I think number one, property management software. A lot of them these days can do a lot of different things. So you might not even need more than that for the first year or two.

Dave:
And actually, if you’re a BiggerPockets Pro member, you can get rent ready for free. That’s just part of the subscription. So that’s absolutely something that you can do. And I think people wait way too long for this, as you said. I think the challenge though is they don’t know how to even evaluate the tools because they’ve never done any of the processes before. So you’re like, how do I know what a good property management software is if I’ve never even communicated with a tenant before? Are there any things that you think are particularly important or should you just go buy one of these reputable softwares and trust that it has everything you need?

Grace:
Don’t pay for one that is going to charge you per unit because it’s going to get expensive quickly. And then like Amelia said, e-sign, maintenance requests, communication and rent payment. As long it has those four things, you should be pretty good. And when it comes to not even knowing what to do with the tenant, another piece of advice that goes along with this is write down what you do. Even if it’s just bullet points so that you can turn it into a standard operating procedure later, that’s going to be so helpful for when you go try to do something a second time, you don’t have to recreate the wheel or do what I call as the sit and think where you sit and think, “Hmm, what am I supposed to do next?” You can just read your own notes and not even have to use your brain.

Henry:
Especially now. What an advantage new investors have with AI being implemented because I use ChatGPT and other AI tools to do SOPs now, and you honestly don’t even have to write it down anymore. You can just talk to it and tell it the steps and tell it to create an SOP. A, that’s easiest. But the biggest cheat code I’ve found, if you’re using software tools and you want to create an SOP on how to use a software tool, ChatGPT has an agent mode now. You can say, “Log into my system, do this task, write down each step, and you can have it create an SOP for you. ” Man,

Dave:
You trust ChatGPT way more than me. I’m not giving it my passwords.That’s crazy.

Henry:
Dave.

Amelia:
Dave, it already knows your

Henry:
Password. It knows your passwords, Dave. It has access to everything already. You’re not that cool.

Amelia:
Baby, it knows your password, your social, your blood type. Yeah.

Henry:
You sound like a boomer right now. It already knows, Dave.

Dave:
No, I’m still terrified. And don’t remind me. What about other systems outside of just property management? Are there other things that you recommend getting started really early with?

Grace:
A little bit more advanced. Monday.com as a project management software. I’m building, and I was laughing the other day because my GC messaged me and said, “This project’s moving faster than your Monday chart can be updated.” He knows that I love my Monday chart. I want to see the budget, the timeline when everything is happening. And that is a great system to also build out SOPs and tasks when you’re closing on a property, when you’re inheriting a tenant, when you’re turning a tenant over, it can lay out all those tasks and add deadlines and who’s supposed to do them.

Dave:
I love that advice. I think that just the order of operations or remembering to do things is so good. Henry and I were joking the other day about how we always forget to move our utilities over when you close on a property. Yes. I use Airtable. It’s very similar to monday.com, similar kind of thing, but you could just program it to send you a text or to remind you to do these things. And it is so fricking helpful. I just can’t imagine how much time and money I would’ve saved. All right. So those are two great systems that you should set up. I’m just going to throw in bookkeeping too. Just find someone to do your bookkeeping. It will save you so much fricking time.

Grace:
I was going to say that.

Amelia:
As a big sister here in real estate, my biggest piece of advice is once you get past three properties, you should really be hiring out a professional bookkeeper. That is not the best use of your time as an investor, unless of course you’re a bookkeeper by trade and you can do it really, really well very quickly. Otherwise, you can make more money elsewhere.

Dave:
I would just want to say and summarize this whole conversation is like we’re talking about systems, we’re talking about these softwares that you should use. It might sound like a lot, but the basic gist here is just treat your rental property like a business. These are things that any business has to do. Set up bookkeeping, get a good email, figure out the software that’s going to help you run your business most effectively. We call it investing. Real estate is really entrepreneurship. You’re a small business. Just figure out the right tools that are going to help you run your business effectively. And Mili and Grace have given awesome advice for how you can get that set up. We do have to take a quick break, but when we come back, we’re going to hear Amelia and Grace’s four other lessons from their first five years of investing.
Stick with us.

Henry:
As a real estate investor, the last thing I want to do or have time for is to play accountant, banker, and debt collector. But that’s what I was doing every weekend, flipping between a bunch of apps, bank statements, and receipts, trying to sort it out by property and figure out who’s late on rent. Then I found Baseline and it takes all that off my plate. It’s BiggerPockets official banking platform that automatically sorts my transactions, matches my receipts, and collects rent for every property. My tax prep is done and my weekends are mine again. Plus, I’m saving a ton of money on banking fees and apps that I don’t need anymore. Get a $100 bonus when you sign up today at baselane.com/bp.

Dave:
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m here with Henry, Grace and Amelia talking about lessons Grace and Amelia have learned from their first five years of investing. Lesson one with systems matter earlier than you think. Let’s move on to lesson two. Grace, what is it?

Grace:
Number two is the biggest wealth builder is not cashflow. It’s time. And as we hit years five and six in our portfolio, we’re really starting to feel this. For example, rentals that we bought on day one that were okay with time where the debt’s getting paid down, it’s appreciating. Of course, we’re getting cashflow and tax benefits. Now on paper, those deals are looking a lot better and investors forget that. They think that they can only get in the market with a grand slam and they’re too scared to take any risk. Where if you just get in the game and get time on your side, you see so many more benefits down the

Henry:
Road. I always get screamed at when I say this. Cashflow is the least important way that my real estate pays me. I want to shoot for cashflow every time, but it is not the only metric I’m using to evaluate whether I’ll buy a deal or not. And I would buy a deal that breaks even if some of the other metrics were wholly in my favor. I’d buy a deal that breaks even that’s in a great part of town that’s appreciating massively, that’s going to give me amazing tax benefits and that I walk into 100 to $150,000 of equity on day one on. Yes. I think investors should be focused on cashflow because cashflow is a measure that you bought yourself a decent deal, but the cashflow itself is not what’s going to make you wealthy. It’s the time in the market. It’s owning that asset over time, watching it appreciate, watching that debt pay down.
And then all of those benefits give you additional options, additional buying power. You can cash out refinance. You can pull a HELOC. You can let it continue to pay itself off or accelerate the payoff. There’s so many more options that you get the longer you have an asset in the market, and it’s that compounding that truly builds the wealth, not the one to four to $500 a month of a cash flow that you’re getting off that asset.

Grace:
And that cash out refinance, which is tax-free money because it’s debt, of course it’s debt. You got to make sure you can cover that and service that. But once you hit year five minimum, you’re able to start doing cash out refinances and get more and more chunks of equity to play with. And as I’ve been saying, really play chess within your portfolio once you have a basis and make moves that make the most sense for you. And when you have time on your side, it continues to give you optionality, like you said, Henry, and flexibility because you’re building equity on all ends.

Dave:
It’s a tired analogy, but it’s just a snowball effect. It just starts slow and it builds and it builds and it builds on yourself. And by the time you’re five years into this, 10 years into it, you just realize you have enough capital to do really the things that you want. And it becomes a different game. Like Grace said, it’s just portfolio management, it’s capital allocation, which to me is way more fun than stressing about whether you made 100 or $125 every single month. And it gets you to the big picture just so much faster. I do respect though, when you’re getting started, it’s hard. It is hard to see that five years out. And so you just got to trust us. I don’t know what else to say. It’s just going to work out. As long as you buy a good deal, just give it time and it will work out.

Henry:
I think the caveat we need people to understand is you do need to have cash reserves so that you can hold on to your properties. In the event they aren’t hitting the numbers that you want, right? Because the only way you really lose out on this benefit is if you sell. And so some deals are going to cash flow amazing. Some deals might not cash flow as well. Even if you underwrote them to perform excellently, it sometimes doesn’t work out like that. Your innovation takes longer. You don’t get the rent you are expecting. Something happens in your market. You got to have the cash reserves to hold on, but if you can hold on, the benefits are great. I am in the middle of refinancing one of the first multifamilies that I bought back in 2020. And when I tell you, I closed on this deal January one, 2020, March, COVID hit.
My renovation budget went from $100,000 on this asset to $250,000 because labor and materials went through the roof during COVID. It took me two years. I was stressed out, no rents coming in. It was costing me so much money every month. And I just kept thinking, “Man, why did I buy this asset?” And now I’m sitting here on an asset I owe $750,000 on that’s going to appraise for 1.5 million. You just have to hold on.

Dave:
Nice, dude.

Grace:
We did an interview on our podcast with a gal who had one rental property, bought it in 2007. She’s up 50K in equity, 2008 to 2013. She’s able to hold onto it, but she’s negative 50,000 in equity. So she’s gone up, down. She’s down for a long time. She still has this property today, because like you said, Henry, she had the reserve, she had the income to basically feed that property through the low. Now she’s up 60, $70,000 in equity. So time heals all if you set yourself up for success to be able to hold onto the asset when the market is down.

Dave:
The one thing I’ll add to this is I completely agree. It’s changed my buying strategy a little bit. I haven’t bought new construction, Grace, but I’ve totally stopped buying really old assets or I’m trying to stop buying really old assets because of this. So

Amelia:
Have we.

Dave:
Because I looked it up today. The first building I bought was built in 1896. But I think it’s really changed my perspective because there are great deals on old houses and I’ve made a lot of money on old houses. But as I’ve matured as an investor, I’m just like, I’m only buying stuff that I want to hold onto for a really long time because I’ve had to sell a lot of those older houses. It’s been fine. There were good deals. But now that I’m in a different, less growth oriented stage of my career, I’m like, I’m just going to buy a place that I know even if it gets bad, even if it loses equity, even if I have a vacancy that this is just like a great asset that I want to hold for 20 years, that’s like my number one buy box criteria right now more than anything else.

Amelia:
Yeah, Dave, that is a perfect transition into number three on our list, which is that your buy box should change with time. As you become a better investor, you should be investing in better deals. Grace and I also, we’ve stopped investing in old properties. We’ve stopped investing in monster houses, which that’s what we call single family conversions that are all wonky, so weird. We don’t want those in our portfolios anymore. We’ve sold some of our rentals to reinvest in properties that we really love because now that we have five, six, seven years in the market, we’ve been able to realize, okay, this is the type of property that I really like. This is the type of property that’s going to get me to my end goal of having the smallest portfolio possible while still making great money. And Grace has taken it even a step further to where she’s now just doing new construction projects.
So Grace, I feel like you should share kind of what that looks like and how also a lot of women in our community that we call mid-level investors in the wire community have also kind of switched to this new construction strategy.

Grace:
When we get started, a lot of us are just like, “Can I get into a property anyway? It doesn’t matter what it is, where it’s at or the strategy. As long as I can bur it or do creative financing, I’m interested.” Once you get a few years into your portfolio, you can’t be in growth mode forever. You’ve got to start stabilizing and really looking at what works for you. For me, I realized the pain of my existence is maintenance. And so my buy box really started to change to new construction. Like I said, I fall completely backwards into it. I never set out to do that. I bought an old home, thought I could save it in an area that was incredible, couldn’t save it. So I really, the only way I could get my money back out of it was to build and then refinance.
And so I did. And now I’m onto new build number five and six and seven. But I really had to think about like, okay, what makes me annoyed during the day or stresses me out? And it was realizing it’s coordinating maintenance because so much decision making. Are you going to keep it? Are you going to replace it? Are you going to troubleshoot? Are you going to tell them it’s not an issue that you cover and that it’s just cosmetic? There’s just so much to coordinate and make decisions on there that I wanted things that just didn’t involve it. And for me, new construction, when it presented itself as an opportunity, made sense. And so my buy box has changed to adapt that.

Henry:
Oftentimes, investors start investing based on an exit strategy. They think they want to do a certain type of real estate deal, but in actuality, that real estate deal may not be as profitable as you think it might be. So just because you want to buy a certain asset doesn’t mean that’s the asset that you have the best skillset for, or that’s the asset that your market gives you the best opportunity for. And it takes a few years, like Dave said, for you to start to see, is my property performing like I underwrote it to perform? It takes time to figure that out. So your buy box should change. I absolutely thought I would snap up any multifamily deal that I could buy under a certain loan to value percentage, but I operated one in a market, in a neighborhood that I now know I will never buy another asset in that market, in that neighborhood.
And it took me having to own that asset for a couple of years for me to figure out that I didn’t want to own that asset, even though all of the numbers made sense and all of the particulars of that property fit my buy box at the time. Time will tell you what you should buy. Time will also tell you if you should do what you think you want to do, because oftentimes you hear a lot of people say, “I want to get into this and I want to be a short-term rental operator or I want to get into this and I want to be a house flipper.” You may not be built for that and it’s going to take you some time to figure it out.

Amelia:
I started out as a house flipper and it took me one deal. It took me one flip to say, “Wow, that was way more work than I bargained for. I’m going to buy rentals.”

Dave:
I recommend to most people when you’re early on, just find ways to build equity. If that means that you need to do annoying maintenance, do it. You have to. Go do a Burr, even if it’s a lot of work. Most people aren’t starting with enough capital that they can go out and buy newer deals that are easy to maintain. That’s just the reality of it. So you need early in your career to hustle a little bit. As you get to this harvesting stage that you get to eventually, then you don’t want to do it and you don’t have to do it. So your buy box needs to change. That is totally normal. The one thing I will say though is if you’re in acquisition mode and you’re looking to buy a deal, try and keep a fixed buy box for that deal. I think that’s where people sometimes get confused with this advice because it’s like when you are going out and buying something, you should have a clear idea of what you’re going to buy.
But in sort of the big picture as your career progresses, your next acquisition between acquisitions, that’s when you should be thinking about changing your buy box.

Henry:
All right. These are great lessons and it’s actually a good transition into our next lesson, which we will get to right after this break. All right, we are back with Amelia and Grace, and we are covering the five lessons they have learned as their time as real estate investors. And we’re moving on to our fourth lesson, which is what, Grace?

Grace:
Growth mode cannot be permanent. And this also can be attributed to some of the themes that Chad Carson talks about. And I love the idea of pruning. We as investors have to understand that we can grow, but we have to get to a baseline stability and almost check in and reevaluate before growing again. The investors who never do this, they just go, go, go forever. Those are the investors who end up over leveraged when there’s a market shift. And I was just talking to a friend who was looking at selling some things that she thought she’d never sell. And I said, “Hey, you got to liquidate and stack up capital and reevaluate from a place of strength when you feel good. You’ve got time. The market’s going well. What you don’t want to wait for is you lose your job or the market has a downturn and now you’re scrambling to free up some capital.” So you got to always get back to a base level stability and really looking at your LTV as a whole, especially if you’re borrowing private money or accessing different types of creative financing is crucial for the investors who want to stay in this for the long game.

Amelia:
One thing that we talk about often in Wire is return on equity. And so we evaluate that often, which is basically your cash flow divided by the equity that you have in the property. And if you’re sitting at a one to 4% return on equity, your money is not working as hard as

Henry:
It

Amelia:
Could be for you. And you need to be looking at either refinancing that property, selling it, doing something with it so that you can take that money and put it elsewhere so that you’re making a great return on it. And Grace and I, we are pruning our portfolios right now. We are in that stabilization kind of mode where we’re taking a great look at our portfolios and figuring out, okay, what really worked well for us? What can we get rid of? What can we refinance? And how can we make our money work really hard for us?

Grace:
And sometimes the property has made its money. It’s done its job. It did well well, but it’s time to get out of that property. I’m selling a fourplex literally today that I never thought I would sell, but I had to really evaluate it using my bookkeeping and my numbers and understanding my time and effort and energy and know that this got me from A to B, but it’s not going to get me from this phase to the next phase that I want to be at. It’s not going to give me the peace of mind that I really want it to. And so really understanding that it’s okay to sell. Sometimes a property has done what it needs to do, and maybe you need to go get ROE elsewhere, or maybe you need to add some cash to your reserves or just decrease your workload. That’s okay.
Real estate’s two steps forward, one step back, as is everything in life.

Dave:
There’s a lot of bad real estate advice, but some of the worst real estate advice out there is when people are like, “Buy and never sell.” Why would you do that? That’s just a stupid thing to say. If you have a deal and you could get a better deal elsewhere, why wouldn’t you sell and then just reallocate your capital elsewhere? It just makes so much more sense. I think holding on no matter what through thick and thin is bad advice. Even though we earlier in this episode just said, “Just hold on. All you have to do is hold on. ”

Grace:
There’s a fine

Dave:
Line. In real estate, it is a fine line. I think the thing that Grace said that really is the important thing is she’s making decisions based on math and ROE and information and not on fear. You’re not selling because the market dipped 2%. You’re not selling because you get fearful. It’s because, “Hey, I have this money and I could be doing something better with it. I’m not running from something. I am running to something else that’s going to be a better use of my time and money.”

Amelia:
Well, Dave, I’m really glad that you said that you think that’s terrible advice because number five on our list, you’ll be very happy about this, is that you won’t hold all of your rentals forever. And it took us a long time to realize that because we had also heard the really crappy advice of you buy and then you never ever sell. And so that was a really hard learning to get out of our heads and to shift our mindset of, okay, not every property is going to be with us for 30 years. We’re going to have to sell some of these and re-utilize that money elsewhere.

Grace:
It took me at least three years to sell a rental. And honestly, within the last six months to a year, I’ve gotten cutthroat. If you are not performing, you’re gone. You’re gone.

Dave:
Yeah,

Grace:
You’re axed. We are doing some major rearranging because at the end of the day, it’s to get the lifestyle I want, which is ease and stress-free and simplicity. So that’s not the same thing I wanted when I first started. When I first started, I was trying to quit my job. So any way I could make money, I was down to do that deal.

Henry:
The beauty of real estate is it can allow you to live the life that you want, but the only way that works is if you’re evaluating your portfolio along the way and making changes in your portfolio that supports the lifestyle you’re trying to achieve. If you’re trying to achieve a certain lifestyle and keeping a property is hindering you from doing that, you need to get rid of that asset, period.

Dave:
I think the sentiment that a lot of this never sell is probably based around is like, don’t take your money out of the market, don’t stop investing it. I do believe in that. But thankfully in real estate, you have these powerful tools like a 10 31 Exchange where you can sell an asset and just go buy another one without paying taxes on it. That’s an incredible benefit where you could just constantly be optimizing your portfolio. And as you get out of the growth mode and into sort of a later stage of your career, optimization is the name of the game. For me at this point, I don’t put a lot of new capital into real estate. I’m just moving stuff around and optimizing and trying to do better and better. And usually that works. You don’t need to continuously be hustling out there, but you have to be willing to be cutthroat, as Grace said, and to be constantly evaluating new priorities.
I talk about a bit in my book, this concept of benchmarking. The thing I do is I constantly evaluate deals in every market I’m in, even if I’m not really actively looking to buy, because that’s the only way I know if my other deals are performing. Because I could say, “Hey, oh, I thought this deal was doing great. It’s getting a 9% return on equity. I could go buy another deal that’s 11 or 12%. Then I’m going to go do that. ” And I only am able to do that because I’m constantly monitoring the market. It’s not that much work, but as your career grows, that’s kind of what your job becomes is just weighing different investing opportunities against each other instead of just hustling constantly.

Amelia:
This conversation’s actually giving me butterflies a little bit because it’s the fun part of investing in real estate. It is. Yes. Moving money around the money management, the portfolio management. I love that aspect of it. I’m like, “Ooh, how can I get my money just to be a complete workhorse for me and fund all of the amazing trips that I get to go on and all the fun things that I get to do? ” You know who never gets to do that though? The people who never get started. I think that is the biggest thing. And we talk to so many people who are like, “I really want to invest in real estate.” And it’s like, yeah, you’ve been talking about it for five to six years. I mean, buy something already. It’s just a house. It’s just a house.

Dave:
I love that.

Henry:
I laugh because I say that all the time. Again, people get mad at me when I say it, but- I

Amelia:
Know people get mad at me a lot too, but you know what?

Henry:
It’s a single family home. No one’s going to die. I know. If it’s a decent market and that deal’s semi-decent and you’ve got cash reserves, buy the house, you’ll be fine.

Amelia:
Right. And if you hate it and it’s a dud and it’s a total turd and you lose a little bit of money on it and you decide you hate real estate investing, that’s okay too. You can stop saying, “I want to be a real estate investor now.” You can scratch that itch. You can say, “That wasn’t for me. I hated that. I’m going to go do something else with my time.”

Grace:
As Amelia would say, sure, get off the pot.

Dave:
Amen. Yes, exactly.

Amelia:
Okay. And bonus number six that we want to share really

Dave:
Quickly is- Oh, free advice here.

Amelia:
Community is everything. Grace and I have been able to scale because we had each other and because we created the Wire community, which is for women investors. So we were getting input from multiple different sources. We were not investing in a silo. I think it’s really hard to continue scaling and to get through hard times in your portfolio. If you don’t have anyone to talk to about it, you don’t have anyone to bounce ideas off of. And there’s so many communities out there now, you should not be doing real estate investing alone.

Grace:
You can think of it like leveraging other people’s knowledge. We’re used to leveraging capital and real estate. Why do you think that you have to do it yourself and reinvent the wheel when you can just go be a part of a community or listen to other people’s experiences and learn them through their own actions and mistakes so that you don’t have to make them yourself? And like we talked about, real estate’s two step forward, one step back, and you don’t have somebody to dig you out of that hole when you start spiraling of like, “Oh, I’m going to sell it all. I’m going to sell it all. ” Somebody to be like, “No, you’re fine. It’s just a bad day or a bad week.” That could really be detrimental to the progress of your portfolio.

Henry:
I don’t think enough people talk about the ups and the downs of real estate. I think it’s amazing that real estate has amazing upside. You can make a lot of money, you can build a lot of equity, you can build a lot of wealth, but there are so many downs in between the ups and they can truly weigh on you. And so having a like- minded investor that you can bounce things off of can really bring you back down to reality and help you realize that, “Hey, this is just the nature of the business and you’re going to be fine.” But B, the amount of times that I have talked to another investor about a problem I was having or maybe not even a problem, just hearing them talk about their business and realize that that’s a solution that I could implement today and it would save me so much of a headache.
We just get tunnel vision sometimes when we’re just dealing in our own problems, dealing in our own portfolios. And then you hear somebody else talk about how they handle a similar problem and you go, “I have no idea why. I didn’t even think about doing that. ” But that fresh perspective from a like- minded investor can really, really save you money, make you money, and just help you stay mentally strong.

Amelia:
Yeah. Grace and I probably joke on a weekly basis, not weekly, monthly, that we’re selling it all and we’re done with it and we’re on it. Amen. The other one brings us down to earth. And it’s just nice to have somebody to vent to also at the end of the day. But yeah, I think that’s a very undervalued part of investing is surrounding yourself with other people that are doing what you want to do.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, I’m glad you all have found such great community. I think it absolutely is true. This is much more of a people business than people give it credit for. Obviously you guys have communities. We also have a community of three and a half million people at BiggerPockets where you can go and join and join the conversation and get advice for free as well. Henry, Amelia, Grace, thank you guys so much for being here. This was a lot of fun. Amelia Grace, if people want to connect with you, where should they do that?

Grace:
You can find us on Instagram @wire.community with two eyes. I’m on Instagram at grace.investing and Amelia’s AmeliaJoREI.

Dave:
Awesome. Thank you again for being here and thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. We’ll see you all next time.

 

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UWM’s Two Harbors deal in doubt, analysts warn


UWM Holdings may have to increase its offer to get the agreed to purchase of Two Harbors over the finish line, industry analysts are speculating.

Processing Content

Two Harbors adjourned the special meeting that was to approve the deal on March 16 to March 24 in order to solicit more proxies.

But the first sign the deal might be in trouble was on March 9, when UWM updated its revenue guidance for the first quarter and the full year. At the time, Eric Hagen, an analyst at BTIG said afterwards that he was still confident the deal would happen, but stock price volatility reduced the odds.

What UWM is doing to get the deal done

A March 16 Securities and Exchange Commission filing from UWM said it hired Okapi Partners to provide strategic advice and assist in the solicitation of proxies. “The TWO Acquisition requires the affirmative vote of the majority of the votes outstanding, and a significant number of stockholders have not yet voted nor submitted proxies,” the filing noted.

Okapi will be paid $25,000 for its services upon consummation of the transaction, it added.

Two Harbors owns mortgage servicer RoundPoint and acquiring the organization will further UWM’s efforts of bringing the servicing function in house. Another reason for the deal was it would increase the float of UWM’s common stock by 93%. In 2021, UWM’s Chairman and CEO Mat Ishbia, who is also its controlling shareholder, tried a secondary stock offering of his holdings with the same aim but the markets reacted negatively, so it was cancelled.

Why analysts are concerned

Both Hagen and Bose George of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods put out separate analyses on the afternoon of March 17 looking at the future path of the transaction.

The effective purchase price UWM would pay for Two Harbors was 23% below the deal’s original value, George wrote on March 17..

Two Harbors’ shareholders would receive a fixed ratio set at 2.33 UWM shares for each share of the REIT. At the time the deal was announced, it valued the transaction at $1.3 billion.

“If the deal is repriced at the 1.1 times price/book multiple, there could be roughly 30% upside,” George said. “Downside is limited: if the deal closes before quarter end with no dividend, there could be around 7% downside since TWO is trading at a 7% premium.”

If it closes after the quarter ends, the downside moves to between 4% and 5%, since Two Harbors would pay its normal 34 cents dividend, George continued.

Even if shareholders vote for the deal at the current price but closing happens after quarter end, the downside falls to 4-5% since the company should pay the normal $0.34 1Q25 dividend.

Its shares at the time of the KBW analysis were trading at 0.85 times book value.

Institutional Shareholder Services said Two Harbors stockholders should veto the deal prior to the vote, Hagen noted in his report; NMN sent a message to ISS to confirm.

“It’s our expectation for most passive investors tracking [exchange-traded funds] to usually adopt the recommendation of ISS, which has grown to over 20% of TWO’s current shareholder base,” Hagen said.

He feels the odds are fading for the merger. While the strategic rational remains intact for both companies, it is unclear whether UWM will amend the deal terms to “sweeten the opportunity for TWO shareholders,” Hagen wrote.

“We see limited room for UWMC to raise its financial leverage in order to add a cash component to the deal terms,” he said. “Even though we think UWMC is highly motivated to see the deal come together, we think it’s even more fundamentally critical and relevant from TWO’s perspective, considering it needs a scaled origination component to help manage its prepayment risk.”

How the deal between TWO and UWM came together

The Two Harbors proxy shows it had three other bidders. All of them bid above tangible book value for the real estate investment trust, the KBW report noted. At least two of those bids were all cash.

“So, given the discount to book value, we think it’s possible that other bids re-emerge and/or UWMC raises its offer with TWO shares at 85% of TBV,” George said.

Hagen was both optimistic regarding another bidder for Two Harbors, but also restrained in what this would mean.

“If the deal doesn’t materialize, we think there’s a strong likelihood for a stalking horse to emerge, at the same time we don’t expect another buyer will be motivated to offer a higher valuation than the original terms.”

UWM first made a proposal to buy Two Harbors on Dec. 9, 2024 at 1.05 times TBV, a chronology in the prospectus said. Two weeks later, on Dec. 26, a bidder only identified as Company A made an all cash offer of $14.25 to $15 per share.

On Jan. 27, UWM made a revised offer set at 1.1 times TBV. In March, Two Harbors made a counter of 1.3 times TBV, which UWM said it was not willing to move forward on, and no further discussions took place at the time.

In August, Two Harbors entered into a legal settlement with its former external manager Pine River for $375 million. A month later, the bidder identified only as Company B proposed an all-stock deal at 1.04 times adjusted common book value. This restarted the bidding process, which ended with the UWM agreement.

But after the agreement was announced, Company C reentered the bidding process but on Dec. 21 pulled out, adding it was not willing to agree to a fixed price per share.

How the stock market is reacting

National Mortgage News reached out to UWM for a comment.

On March 18, UWM closed at $3.68 per share, up 2 cents on the day, but during trading just after opening in the morning was at a 52-week low of $3.59 per share; the high on the day was $3.84 per share around 11 a.m.

Two Harbors also had a wild day of trading, running from a low of $9.08 to a high of $9.90 in the morning before closing at $9.52, up 38 cents.



Why Growth Stalls After Early Success


John Jantsch (00:01.058)

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast. This is John Jantsch and I’m going to do a solo show today. That’s right, just me, no guess. I want to talk about some things that…

You know, I can say that it’s been brewing recently, but you know, in hindsight, when I look back, it’s probably something that I’ve recognized over 20 years or so. And here’s the question I’m going to start with. Why do smart businesses, smart business owners keep hitting the same ceiling? That’s what I want to talk about today. I feel very qualified to talk about this because I’m a founder. I’ve experienced some of the same things I’m going to talk about today. And I think that that

Quite frankly, it’s helped me recognize why this is happening. So we work with a lot of founder led businesses and what we’ve typically found is they don’t have a very well developed strategy. I mean, we’ve built almost our entire practice on the idea of strategy before tactics and many of the clients come to us for a strategy first type of engagement. And while in every case,

They are helped. have better thoughts. They have better priorities. They have better tactics. One of the things that I’ve found is that even as the business grows, many times they come up against the same hurdle time and time again. A lot of it’s because the founders patterns have stayed the same. How they view the business, how they view delegating, how they view growth.

their fears. These are some of the things that I think really end up holding a business back so that it ultimately can’t necessarily change, even though we’ve installed a better marketing approach in many cases. what I’ve seen, here’s some of the things I’ve seen. Tell me if any of these apply to you. The founder is still very involved in every, or at least many decisions. The team,

John Jantsch (02:11.946)

if they’ve assembled one, kind of waits around for like, what do we do next rather than owning things? Delegation, while it’s a good idea, every quarter I’m going to really commit to it, never really sticks. There’s not a lot of accountability or it’s fuzzy as far as who’s going to do what. And so it’s like the business keeps circling around the same issues time and time again. So

I’m wondering, are you feeling that bottleneck? Do any of these symptoms or ideas sound familiar to you? And what’s it costing? I guess that’s the next question too. I know that when we have worked with a client, in some cases, when we can’t get past this issue, the strategy, no matter how good it is, it really stalls or gets undermined at least. Alignment that.

that hopefully sometimes comes out of this strategy engagement falls. People get hesitant. Growth certainly slows as well. what’s the solution? Well, one of the things that we have added, and we’re going to do it as a standalone, frankly, but certainly as part of or the front end of any strategy engagement that we do, is to add an element that we’re calling the Founder’s Day.

The idea behind this is to have a very intense guided, facilitated workshop, if you will, with the founder of the business before we ever start talking about their ideal client and their core message. Because I think real change, of course, has to start with that founder. And really before the business can transform, mean, a lot of times we have to teach them what it is that we’re going to install, but then also how we’re going to reinforce it.

Here’s what it is. It’s a structured, facilitated experience focused on the founder’s change. It’s not therapy, although maybe sometimes. It’s not really coaching or certainly not coaching theater that you sometimes see out there. It’s not a strategy session. It’s a process designed to really surface the patterns, the assumptions, the behaviors really that are actually limiting and holding back growth. the goal

John Jantsch (04:39.15)

to that day or to that session or that element, it’s not really just insight. mean, it’s to create a shift that can support the real organizational change that is going to come from us installing strategy first, installing a marketing operating system. So.

It’s going to begin with business goals. Again, that’s another thing I think is I’ve learned the hard way, but I think it’s sort of odd that a lot of marketing folks get hired to do marketing plans, to do marketing strategy, to do marketing tactics. And there really hasn’t been much discussion, if at all, about what the goals of the organization are, what the goals of the business are. And we really need to tie those two things together. So we’re going to start there, really get very clear on what the company wants.

before we start talking about how the founder is going to change in order to get there. And then of course how marketing is going to eventually support that. So.

John Jantsch (05:45.516)

we’re going to move, I think we’re going to ask you to make some honest reflection to help move you out of the way of growth. I know that sounds really harsh and I can say it again. I think I could say it because frankly, I’ve lived it myself. In many cases, we have to really change the behaviors that have been in the way and have been quite frankly become part of the culture. And the only way you can change them is to recognize that they exist. So we’re gonna walk you through

facilitate a day, frankly, of helping you understand what those, not only what the goals for the business are, we’re going to start there, but then we’re going to actually talk about what are the constraints, what’s holding you back, what has held you back. And it’s going to, in many cases, going to take some vulnerabilities, some brutal honesty. I know that, you know, when I’m sort of challenged on being the issue, being the problem, you know, it’s really

human nature to actually respond in a way that is defensive. And I think that we all know if you’ve been doing this at any time at all, I mean, that obviously is not helpful for the business itself. So, and what’s so amazing is what got you here is that you have the desire, you have the smarts, you have the really the drive to build that business.

But what we’ve discovered, especially when a business has grown to a certain level, one to $20 million, I mean, clearly something is going right. But what we have found is that that’s where they kind of bump up against the ceiling of sorts. And it’s that kind of old cliche of what got you here won’t get you there, won’t get you to the next level. So understanding what the next level is, and then also understanding, or at least having a guided

facilitation around, you know, why some of these patterns keep happening, what’s going to change, how are going to commit to change too? It’s not really supposed to be just a nice day, you know, where everybody sits around and talks about their feelings. It is going to be a day where you tie what you want to do to how you’re going to lead and to really come up with a personal change plan for how you’re going to lead.

John Jantsch (08:10.988)

that we believe is the thing that’s going to kind of unleash you going to the next level. Now there are many elements, obviously, in the execution, in strategy first, in installing the marketing operating system. But what we’ve discovered is this is the key to really unlocking a true transformation in the business and making it stick. Many of us have experienced temporary experiences, temporary transformations.

The key to this is really, this is what’s going to make it stick. So this is something that we have just introduced and we’re gonna start offering as a standalone product, if you will, or experience. However, I’ve got an opportunity for you to experience it free of charge. March 31st through April 2nd, we are going to hold an event that we are calling Future Proofing, your how to future proof your marketing agency. It is targeting.

agencies and consultants in this particular case, because that’s a market that we serve. And so we are going to offer three days. The first day is going to be this founder day. I’m going to walk people through it. You’re going to go away with a workbook. You’re going to go away with lots of questions. It’s going to be a group setting. So it’s certainly not going to be the intimate one-on-one session that that might and probably needs to happen. But we want people to experience this is part of duct tape marketing.

This is part of our marketing system now. The second day, and what we’re going to do is one hour a day. We’re going to give you homework. We’re going to give you workbooks. You’re going to really, we’re calling it a working experience. It’s not a workshop. It’s not a webinar. So day two is going to be thinking in terms of how do we move from selling tactics to selling transformation, to delivering transformation for our clients? Because I think that is

the future. That is how we’re going to future proof our business. And then day three, we are actually going to introduce attendees to something we call the marketing operating system. It is in my estimation, it is the way that you can make yourself really impervious to what’s going on with AI. It is something that AI can’t replicate and you are going to be in the driver’s seat with it. I’m not suggesting we’re not going to use AI.

John Jantsch (10:32.878)

going to use AI in all the ways that it is meant to be used and all the ways that are practical and all the ways that deliver value. But if all you’re doing is delivering value using AI tools, well, you’re going to be replaced by that very tool. But if you actually have a framework and a system that we call the marketing operating system, AI can’t produce that. Now it can help you deliver it, but you are going to make future proof your practice. So three days.

I will, we will certainly be promoting this in other ways. But if you’re interested, want to go sign up for free? It is dtm.world slash future. That’s dtm like duct tape marketing dot world slash future. And I believe it could be one of the most eyeopening experiences that you can have, particularly if you’re one of those people out there thinking, am I going to get replaced by AI?

Is the agency world changing? Do I need a new model? I think we’re going to introduce you to some ideas that might answer some of those questions for you. So last time, March 31st through April 2nd, three days in a row, hour a day, plus you’re going to get homework and workbooks, dtm.world slash future. And if nothing else, I think the experience of going through the founder day of asking some deeper questions than maybe what do need to do today?

might be well worth the time invested. So that’s it for today. Hopefully we’ll see you one of these days soon out there on the road.

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The Fed Didn't Cut Rates. Here's What That Means for Your Money Now

Image source: Getty Images

As expected, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking its second straight pause.

But the backdrop has changed fast. Inflation is still stubborn, energy prices are rising, and the job market just showed signs of cracking.

And that likely means higher borrowing costs are sticking around longer than many people hoped.

Why the Fed stayed put

Inflation was already running hotter than expected before the recent spike in energy prices. On top of that, new uncertainty around global events has made it harder for policymakers to feel confident about cutting rates.

The Fed doesn’t want to cut too early and risk reigniting inflation.

Inflation still isn’t cooperating

One of the biggest signals came from wholesale inflation.

The producer price index rose 3.4% in February from a year earlier, the largest increase in a year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s not the direction the Fed wants to see when it’s considering rate cuts.

And that was before energy prices jumped.

When inflation looks like it could accelerate again, the Fed tends to stay cautious.

The job market just flashed a warning sign

The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a sharp miss compared to expectations for job growth. That’s the kind of data that would normally push the Fed toward cutting rates.

But now the Fed has a tougher balancing act.

Lower rates could support the economy. But they could also make inflation worse. Right now, inflation risk is winning that debate.

What this means for your money

Credit card rates are staying high

If you carry a balance, this decision doesn’t help. Credit card APRs move with broader interest rates, and those rates aren’t coming down yet. That means interest charges stay expensive. If you need breathing room, some balance transfer credit cards can give people almost two years of no interest payments. Check out the top balance transfer cards available now.

Loan rates aren’t falling anytime soon

Auto loans, personal loans, and other borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated. If you were waiting for a meaningful drop before taking out that personal loan or pulling the trigger on a new car, you may be waiting longer.

Savings rates are still solid, for now

The flip side is that higher rates are still good for savers. High-yield savings accounts and money market accounts are still offering competitive yields compared to traditional banks. See this list of savings accounts with the top APYs to help your money grow.

Where this leaves things

The Fed didn’t surprise anyone this afternoon. Lower rates are still possible. They just don’t look as close as they once might have.

And until that changes, borrowing stays expensive, saving stays relatively rewarding, and the smartest move is to plan like rates aren’t dropping anytime soon.

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Best 12-Month CD Rates for March 18, 2026: Up to 4.15%


Certificates of deposit (CDs) remain one of the most reliable short-term savings tools, especially for those seeking guaranteed returns as rates fall. As of March 18, 2026, the best 12-month CD rates reach up to 4.15% APY (annual percentage yield), with many banks and credit unions still offering yields far above the national average of 1.52%, according to the FDIC. 

Over the last several weeks, many banks and credit unions have been raising their 12-month CD rate.

Now might be the best time to lock in a guaranteed rate. If you’re looking to earn a predictable return over the next year, these are the best CD rates available today.

💰 Today’s Best 12-Month CD Rates At a Glance

Here are the best bank and credit union savings accounts rates today:

Bank or Credit Union

Top APY

Minimum Deposit

Credit One Bank

4.15%

$100,000

Bank of Utah

3.85%

$1,000

Live Oak Bank

3.80%

$2,500

Navy Federal Credit Union

3.80%

$1,000

Alliant Credit Union

3.80%

$1,000

1. Credit One Bank – Credit One Bank is offering a jumbo CD at 4.15% APY, but it does require a $100,000 minimum deposit to open.

2. Bank of Utah – Bank of Utah is currently offering a 12-month CD at 3.85% APY with just a $1,000 minimum deposit.

3. Live Oak Bank – Live Oak Bank is currently offering a 12-month CD at 3.80% APY with a $2,500 minimum to open. Read more about Live Oak Bank here.

4. Navy Federal Credit Union – Navy Federal CU is currently offering a regular 12-month share certificate with just a $1,000 minimum at 3.75% APY. If you have $100,000, you can get the jumbo share certificate for 3.80% APY. Read our full Navy Federal Credit Union review here.

5. Alliant Credit Union – Alliant Credit Union offers short term and long term CDs with competitive APYs. Right now you can get 3.75% APY on a 12-month CD option! And you can even earn up to 3.80% APY on a Jumbo CD. Read our full Alliant Credit Union Review.

You can find a full list of the best 12-month CDs here >>

How 12-Month CDs Work

A 12-month certificate of deposit pays a fixed interest rate for one year in exchange for keeping your money on deposit until maturity. If you withdraw early, the bank charges a penalty – typically 90 days of interest.

CDs appeal to savers who prefer guaranteed, short-term returns. While high-yield savings accounts offer flexibility, CDs can secure a higher fixed return for a set period, which can be helpful if rates are expected to decline.

For example, a $25,000 CD at 4.00% APY would earn roughly $1,000 in one year, compared with about $387 based on today’s national average 12-month CD rate.

What To Know Before Opening A CD

Certificates of deposit operate differently than savings accounts. Make sure you understand what you’re getting:

  • Short-Term Goals: Ideal for saving toward tuition, a wedding, or a home down payment within a year.
  • Rate Protection: A CD locks your APY, so you’re insulated from rate cuts.
  • Ladder Strategy: Pair a 12-month CD with longer terms (24- or 36-month) to capture higher rates while maintaining liquidity.
  • Safety:
    FDIC or NCUA insurance protects up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution.

Before opening an account, make sure you understand all the terms:

  • Minimum Deposit: Some banks require $1,000 or more to open.
  • Withdrawal Terms: Review penalties before committing funds.
  • Renewal Policy: Many CDs automatically renew at maturity unless you opt out.
  • Rate Guarantees: Confirm whether your rate is locked at the time of application or funding.
  • Online Access: Ensure the bank allows easy transfers and e-statements.

More CD Options

Check out the table below for more CD options:

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How We Track And Verify Rates

At The College Investor, our editorial team reviews CD rates daily from more than 30 banks and credit unions nationwide. We confirm every APY directly from official rate disclosures and regulatory filings.

Only FDIC- or NCUA-insured institutions available to U.S. consumers are included.

Our rankings are editorially independent – compensation does not influence placement. While we may earn a referral fee when you open an account through some links, our reviews and recommendations are based solely on yield, accessibility, and overall customer experience.

FAQs

Are 12-month CDs safe?

Yes. CDs are federally insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution.

Can I withdraw my money early?

Yes, but you’ll forfeit some interest, typically three months’ worth.

Are CD earnings taxable?

Yes. Interest earned is subject to federal income tax, and in some states, state tax.

What happens when a CD matures?

You’ll usually have a 7- to 10-day grace period to withdraw or renew your funds.

Is now a good time to open a CD?

Rates remain near their cycle highs, so locking in a short-term CD can make sense before potential cuts.

Editor: Colin Graves

Reviewed by: Richelle Hawley

The post Best 12-Month CD Rates for March 18, 2026: Up to 4.15% appeared first on The College Investor.