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Does It Make Sense to Float with Mortgage Rates Near 3.5-Year Lows?


I got to thinking lately that floating a mortgage rate might not offer much upside at the moment.

Obviously it’s situational and depends on a particular loan scenario, timing, etc., but with mortgage rates back near 3.5 year lows, how much lower can they can go?

With oil prices still hovering near $100 per barrel, it’s pretty clear there’s going to be an uptick in inflation, even if it’s “transitory.”

Bonds don’t like inflation and nor do mortgage rates, which explains why mortgage rates increased a lot in March.

But they’ve also come down a fair bit in April, so further improvement might be hard to come by.

Mortgage Rates Have Had a Great April Despite a Ton of Uncertainty

It’s the million-dollar question in the mortgage industry. Should I lock or float my mortgage rate?

While there is some logic and calculated risk you can apply, such as floating when you’re a long way out from a closing date, it’s still always a gamble.

Simply put, nobody knows what will happen with mortgage rates.

Case in point, rates hit a 3.5-year low at the end of February, then we saw a huge spike in rates in March thanks to an unanticipated strike on Iran.

At the time, I’m sure a lot of people were floating their rates and hoping for even lower ones.

There were probably a good handful of existing homeowners waiting to refinance their mortgage because they expected even better.

Then bam, rates did an about face and surged back toward 7%. Thankfully they reversed course again in April, but they’re still about a half-point above those February lows.

And given oil remains near $100 per barrel, up from about $70 pre-war, it makes sense that interest rates remain elevated.

Let’s not forget the Strait of Hormuz is also effectively closed and blockaded, so the transport of oil and natural gas has been choked off.

Each day this continues, the worse it gets, even if the smart people in the room think it’s going to be resolved fairly quickly.

That means mortgage rates will likely remain elevated as well, or at the least above those really low levels seen in late February.

Had rates been “high” prior to the conflict, one could argue that that they could come down quite a bit more after they moved even higher.

But since they were priced at that best levels since 2022 prior to the strike, it was probably much easier to justify an increase and a lasting one.

Put another way, mortgage rates are pretty low right now if you zoom out, and especially decent given what’s going on at the moment.

What Are Some Arguments for Floating Mortgage Rates Right Now?

As noted, mortgage rates are already pretty attractive having come down quite a bit this month.

A low-6% 30-year fixed rate is unequivocally good relative to what we’ve seen the past few years. Remember the 7-8% rates?

At the same time, they remain about a half-point above those late-February levels, so one could argue there’s still room for improvement.

And if the trend is our friend again, perhaps mortgage rates continue to drift even lower and closer to those levels.

That’s if you believe the situation in the Middle East will be resolved and things will get back on track.

It’s basically what you’re counting on here at the moment because there’s not much else in the way of major economic news being released anytime soon.

Sure, there are some reports like retail sales, pending home sales, and PMI data next week, but nothing too notable.

It’s not until May 8th that we get the next jobs report, which is always the biggest mover of mortgage rates.

Remember, for the Fed and bond traders it’s labor over inflation, so that’s what can really move mortgage rates. And it’s not for another 3+ weeks.

Even then, it might not even prove favorable for mortgage rates…

In the meantime, we could see escalations in the ongoing conflict that lead to higher rates, making floating risky business.

So you kind of wonder how much lower rates could get here. Sure, a stellar peace deal could certainly help, but even then, how much?

Does it get rates down to 6.25% or 6.125%? Another .125% or .25% lower?

You kind of wonder how much room there is for mortgage rates to fall right now. And if it’s worth finding out.

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

North Korea fires ballistic missile as regional tensions simmer




North Korea fires ballistic missile as regional tensions simmer

InKind Offers $50 Referral Bonus, Plus $25 Off $50 for New Users


Score an Increased $50 inKind Referral Bonus

The popular dining app inKind has just launched a limited-time referral offer, doubling its standard bonus. If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to share the app with friends, the current inKind referral bonus is at an all-time high. If you’re looking to sign up, you can use my link to buy me a beer, or two or three.

What is inKind?

For those who are not familiar with the app, inKind is a dining app that allows you to pay your bill at over 6,200 eligible restaurants and bars. The primary draw? It offers a consistent 20% back every single time you dine, essentially providing a permanent discount on your favorite meals when you use a credit card to pay through the app.

But it gets even better with their frequent promotions, or gift card sales that get up to 35% off your dining bills. You can stack inKind promos on same bill by splitting the bill with others.

The $50 inKind Referral Bonus Details

While the standard inKind referral bonus is typically $25, the rewards have been boosted to $50 per successful referral. This makes it the perfect window to refer a significant other, family member, or friend. There’s no limit to how many referrals you can earn.

Guru’s Wrap-up

inKind has become my go-to app for dining, or even for grabbing drinks. Whether I’m around NYC or traveling, I will usually take a look at the app and see if there are any decent options available on inKind.

Before you head out, make sure to check the “Promotions” tab in the app to claim any additional active offers. With the inKind referral bonus currently doubled, now it’s the best time to (sign up if you have not done so yet) and refer your friends and family members.

Trump speeds review of psychedelics after Joe Rogan texted him about ibogaine. ‘Let’s do it’



President Donald Trump on Saturday directed his administration to speed up reviews of certain psychedelic drugs, including ibogaine, which recently has been embraced by combat veterans and conservative lawmakers despite having serious safety risks.

Ibogaine and other psychedelics remain banned under the federal government’s most restrictive category for illegal, high-risk drugs. But the administration is taking steps to ease restrictions and spur research on using the drugs for medical purposes, including conditions like severe depression.

“Today’s order will ensure that people suffering from debilitating symptoms might finally have a chance to reclaim their lives and lead a happier life,” Trump said as he signed an executive order on the drugs. The Republican president said his directive will help “dramatically accelerate” access to potential treatments. “If these turn out to be as good as people are saying, it’s going to have a tremendous impact,” he said.

Veteran organizations and psychedelic advocates have long contended that ibogaine, which is made from a shrub native to West Africa, has great promise for hard-to-treat conditions such as post-traumatic stress disorder and opioid addiction.

Trump’s announcement follows pledges by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other administration officials to ease access to psychedelics for medical use, an issue that has won rare bipartisan support.

Joining Trump in the Oval Office were his top health officials, conservative podcaster Joe Rogan and Marcus Luttrell, the former Navy SEAL whose memoir about a deadly mission in Afghanistan was the basis of the film “Lone Survivor.” Rogan said he texted Trump information on ibogaine and the president responded: “Sounds great. Do you want FDA approval? Let’s do it.”

“You’re going to save a lot of lives through it,” Luttrell told Trump during the ceremony. “It absolutely changed my life for the better.”

The Food and Drug Administration next week will issue national priority vouchers for three psychedelics, which the agency’s commissioner, Marty Makary, said will allow certain drugs to be approved quickly “if they are in line with our national priorities.” The vouchers can cut review times from several months to a period of weeks. It is the first time the FDA has offered that fast-tracking to any psychedelics.

The FDA is also taking steps to clear the way for the first-ever human trials of ibogaine in the U.S.

Trump’s action surprised many longtime advocates and researchers in the psychedelic field, given that ibogaine is known to sometimes trigger potentially fatal heart problems. The National Institutes of Health briefly funded research on the drug in the 1990s, but discontinued the work due to ibogaine’s “cardiovascular toxicity.”

“It’s been incredibly difficult to study ibogaine in the U.S. because of its known cardiotoxicity,” said Frederick Barrett, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research. “If the executive order can pave the way for doing objective, scientific research with this compound, it would help us understand whether it is truly a better psychedelic therapy than others.”

No psychedelic has been approved in the United States, but a number of them are being studied in large trials for various mental health conditions, including psilocybin, MDMA and LSD. All those drugs remain illegal, classified as Schedule I substances alongside drugs such as heroin. Two states — Oregon and Colorado — have legalized psychedelic therapy with psilocybin.

Ibogaine was first used by members of the Bwiti religion in African nations like Gabon during their religious ceremonies.

In recent years, U.S. veterans have reported benefiting from the drug after traveling to clinics in Mexico that administer it.

Backing from veterans groups and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry led to a law last year providing $50 million for ibogaine research in that state. Perry, who co-founded a group called Americans for Ibogaine, recently appeared on Rogan’s podcast, making the case for reducing federal limits on the drug. It was his second time talking about ibogaine on the popular podcast in the past two years.

Trump’s order calls on the Department of Health and Human Services to direct at least $50 million to states that have enacted or are developing programs to advance psychedelic drugs for serious mental illness. It’s described as a federal-state partnership to provide funding, technical assistance and data sharing.

Ibogaine is known to cause irregular heart rhythms and has been linked to more than 30 deaths in the medical literature, according to the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, a nonprofit that conducted some early studies in patients outside the U.S.

The group’s co-executive director, Ismail Lourido Ali, said Trump’s order might encourage other states to follow the Texas model.

“The stigma around Schedule I drugs is significant,” Ali said. “It feels like this would give pretty substantial cover for Republican governors and legislatures to step into the ring in terms of funding research programs at their universities.”

Owners of ibogaine clinics said the impact of the order will not be immediate.

“There will be no insurance coverage, it will still be considered unapproved and non-covered care,” said Tom Feegel of Beond Ibogaine, which operates a clinic in Cancun, Mexico. “But what it does mean is that ibogaine shifts from being fringe and underground to being federally acknowledged.”

Feegel says his clinic treated 2,000 people with ibogaine last year for between $15,000 and $20,000 per person. The company also gave free treatment to about 100 veterans.

Clinics that use the drug typically monitor patients’ heart readings and have emergency medical equipment on hand.

One of the only recent studies conducted by U.S. researchers found that veterans treated with ibogaine showed improvements in symptoms of traumatic brain injury, including PTSD, depression and anxiety. The Stanford University study was small — enrolling 30 veterans who received the drug in Mexico. It did not include a placebo group for comparison, an essential feature of rigorous medical research. Patients in the study received a combination of ibogaine mixed with magnesium intended to reduce heart risks.

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Three Levers That Drive VC Returns



Three Levers That Drive VC Returns

Macklem warns against hiking too early or too late on oil shock




Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said central banks around the world are positioned differently when it comes to economic slack and inflation, and their responses to the oil price shock are likely to vary.

From Live Nation’s antitrust trial loss to Max Lousada and Julie Greenwald’s 26.2 launch… it’s MBW’s weekly round-up


Welcome to Music Business Worldwide’s Weekly Round-up – where we make sure you caught the five biggest stories to hit our headlines over the past seven days. MBW’s Round-up is exclusively supported by BMI, a global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music.


This week, a US federal jury found Live Nation and Ticketmaster illegally monopolized the US ticketing and amphitheater markets, handing a landmark antitrust victory to a coalition of 33 states and the District of Columbia.

Meanwhile, Warner Music Group forged a partnership with – and made a minority investment in – TuStreams, a distribution platform focused on Música Mexicana and the wider Latin music scene.

Elsewhere, Max Lousada and Julie Greenwald took the wraps off 26.2, their new venture, launched in a strategic partnership with Sony Music.

Also this week, K-pop’s ‘Big Four’ — HYBE, JYP Entertainment, SM Entertainment and YG Entertainment — moved to establish a joint venture that will launch a global music festival, dubbed Fanomenon, intended to rival Coachella.

Here are some of the biggest headlines from the past few days…


1. LIVE NATION AND TICKETMASTER LOSE ANTITRUST TRIAL: WHAT HAPPENED, WHAT IT MEANS, AND WHAT COMES NEXT

A federal jury on Wednesday (April 15) found that Live Nation Entertainment and its subsidiary Ticketmaster illegally monopolized the US ticketing and amphitheater markets.

The result handed a victory to the coalition of 33 states and the District of Columbia that pressed the landmark antitrust case to trial after the concert giant reached a settlement with the US Department of Justice.

The jury found in favor of the states on every claim after a five-week trial in Manhattan federal court, and determined that consumers had been overcharged on tickets.

The verdict now sets the stage for a remedy phase that could result in significant changes to how the live entertainment industry operates.

Here’s what happened, how we got here, and what comes next… (MBW)


2. WARNER MAKES STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN TUSTREAMS – A DISTRIBUTION PLATFORM FOCUSED ON LATIN MUSIC

Warner Music Group has entered into what it calls a “landmark” partnership with TuStreams, a distribution platform focused on Latin music.

WMG describes TuStreams as “a leading independent force in the fast-growing Música Mexicana space”.

Warner has also made a minority investment in the company.

As part of the agreement, Warner Music Group will serve as the global distribution partner for TuStreams’ full catalog and future releases. According to a press release issued on Monday (April 13), the partnership “brings together TuStreams’ entrepreneurial vision with WMG’s global infrastructure, unlocking new levels of scale, visibility, and opportunity across international markets”… (MBW)


3. MAX LOUSADA AND JULIE GREENWALD ARE IN BUSINESS. WELCOME TO 26.2 — IN PARTNERSHIP WITH SONY MUSIC

Max Lousada has ordered a Campari and soda; Julie Greenwald, a Paloma. Colorful drinks for colorful personalities — fizzing with energy over what’s coming next.

What’s coming next… is precisely why MBW is here, chewing on a chopped salad at Soho Mews House, West London, and listening to Lousada and Greenwald lay out the blueprint for 26.2 – their new venture, launched in a strategic partnership with Sony Music.

26.2 is a record label – and proudly so. Not a distributor, not a joint venture, and not a services platform… (MBW)


4. AS K-POP CONCERT REVENUES RISE, HYBE, SM ENTERTAINMENT, JYP, AND YG PLOT MUSIC FESTIVAL JOINT VENTURE

K-pop giants HYBE, JYP Entertainment, SM Entertainment, and YG Entertainment are preparing to establish a joint venture to launch a ‘global’ music festival.

According to an exclusive report from South Korean outlet Business Post on Thursday (April 16), the four companies, which collectively represent K-pop’s so-called ‘Big Four’, recently submitted a business combination report to South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission (FTC) as part of the JV formation process.

The filing is a regulatory requirement given that HYBE qualifies as a large corporate group with assets above KRW 5 trillion (approximately $3.4 billion), and SM Entertainment is an affiliate of the Kakao conglomerate.

An FTC official told Business Post that the regulator could not confirm individual filings, but noted that review timelines vary depending on the specifics of each case.

The venture comes as live music becomes an increasingly important revenue stream for K-pop’s biggest companies… (MBW)


5. BTS LABEL BIGHIT MUSIC ASKS US COURT TO UNMASK X USER WHO LEAKED ‘ARIRANG’ BEFORE RELEASE

HYBE’s BigHit Music has asked a federal judge in California to authorize a subpoena on X Corp. to reveal the identity of an anonymous user who allegedly leaked BTS’s latest album ARIRANG before its March 20 release.

BigHit is the South Korean label behind BTS and a wholly owned subsidiary of entertainment giant HYBE.

The label filed an ex parte application on April 9 in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, bringing the petition under 28 U.S.C. § 1782, a statute that allows a foreign litigant to extract evidence from a US entity if the evidence is for use in a foreign proceeding.

BTS broke records across major streaming platforms when the K-pop act dropped ARIRANG. The record pulled in over 110 million streams on Spotify in its first 24 hours, breaking the record for the most-streamed K-pop album in Spotify history and the most-streamed album in a single day this year, Spotify announced on social media… (MBW)


Partner message: MBW’s Weekly Round-up is supported by BMI, the global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music. Find out more about BMI hereMusic Business Worldwide



[CA, In Branch Only] EverTrust Bank $300 Checking Bonus


Offer at a glance

  • Maximum bonus amount: $300
  • Availability: CA, In branch only [locations]
  • Direct deposit required: Yes, $2,500+ for three consecutive months
  • Additional requirements: None 
  • Hard/soft pull: Unknown 
  • ChexSystems: Unknown
  • Credit card funding: Unknown 
  • Monthly fees: $10, avoidable 
  • Early account termination fee: Unknown 
  • Household limit: None listed
  • Expiration date: None listed

The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • EverTrust Bank is offering a $300 bonus when you open a new checking account and complete the following requirements:
    • Three or more consecutive months of qualifying direct deposits totaling at least $2,500

The Fine Print

  • Bonus Requirements
    • The bonus is available to new Regular Personal Checking accounts opened on or after April 1, 2026. We may change the availability of the promotion at any time. Limit one bonus per customer.
    • A bonus of $300 will be paid after three or more consecutive months of qualifying direct deposits totaling at least $2,500 are made within 120 calendar days from the date the account is opened. A qualifying direct deposit is a deposit of your salary, pension, Social Security, or other monthly income transaction electronically deposited into your account by your employer or other outside agency. Transfers from one account to another, or deposits made at a branch or ATM, do not qualify as a direct deposit.
    • Your Regular Personal Checking account must be in good standing from the date the account is opened to the date the bonus is paid. Good standing means the account is open, active, not frozen, or restricted, without incurring a negative balance outside the approved overdraft daily balance amount, applicable service charges are paid timely and has complied with the terms of the account agreement.
  • Bonus Payment
    • The bonus will be deposited into your Regular Personal Checking account within 30 calendar days after the 120-day qualification period and all requirements of this promotion are fulfilled.
    • The bonus will be reported to the IRS for tax purposes, and you are responsible for any applicable taxes.

Avoiding Fees

Monthly Fees

This account has a $10 monthly fee, this is waived with a balance of $500+

Early Account Termination Fee

I wasn’t able to find a fee schedule so unsure if there is any EATF. 

Our Verdict

Annoying that it needs to be opened in branch, but still a good deal if you live near a branch. 

Hat tip to reader Ji

Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:

  • A Beginners Guide To Bank Account Bonuses
  • Bank Account Quick Reference Table (Spreadsheet) (very useful for sorting bonuses by different parameters)
  • PSA: Don’t Call The Bank
  • Introduction To ChexSystems
  • Banks & Credit Unions That Are ChexSystems Inquiry Sensitive
  • What Banks & Credit Unions Do/Don’t Pull ChexSystems?
  • How To Use Our Direct Deposit Page For Bank Bonuses Page
  • Common Bank Bonus Misconceptions + Why You Should Give Them A Go
  • How Many Bank Accounts Can I Safely Open Within A Year For Bank Bonus Purposes?
  • Affiliate Links & Bank Bonuses – We Won’t Be Using Them
  • Complete List Of Ways To Close Bank Accounts At Each Bank
  • Banks That Allow/Don’t Allow Out Of State Checking Applications
  • Bank Bonus Posting Times

Should You Buy Lemonade Stock Before April 29?


The war in Iran has created a lot of volatility in the markets, and many stocks are experiencing fluctuating prices based on little more than conflicted investor sentiment. Right now, that sentiment is improving, and the S&P 500 is finally back in the positive for 2026, up 4% as of this writing.

That means that as companies release their latest earnings, the markets may respond to macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns rather than to the company’s performance.

Insurance technology company Lemonade (LMND +3.59%) reports 2026 first-quarter earnings on April 29. Given the current broader uncertainty, should you buy Lemonade stock today?

Image source: Getty Images.

Does AI make Lemonade better?

Insurance is a huge industry. In a recent blog post, Lemonade CEO Daniel Schreiber noted that 14 of the 100 largest companies in the U.S. are insurance companies. They’re big, and they’re old. However, Schreiber writes a scathing analysis of why the incumbents can’t catch up to Lemonade’s technological advancements, even though it is a much smaller operator in this industry.

The basic premise is that Lemonade was created on a digital substrate with AI as its foundation, and that gives it an edge even if the other companies start embracing AI, which they have. Its systems work together to analyze millions of data points and quickly respond, leading to more accurate pricing without the need for human intervention. It’s chatbots onboard customers and deal with claims, and Lemonade’s operating expenses excluding growth (OPEX) have remained constant even as its in-force premium (IFP), or the average total premium at a given time, soars.

Lemonade opex vs. IFP.

Image source: Lemonade.

Lemonade continues to report robust growth in IFP, revenue, and profitability. Its loss ratio, which is an important profitability metric for insurance companies, has been declining, which means it’s paying out less money in claims. That implies that its underwriting is improving as the company has more data.

Lemonade Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(3.59%) $2.46

Current Price

$70.94

What’s happening on April 29?

Management has provided several long-term goals, including reaching positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the 2026 fourth quarter, with positive net income to follow in 2027.

IFP growth, its top-line metric, has been accelerating for the past seven quarters, reaching 31% in the 2025 fourth quarter. That’s quite a track record. Management is guiding for that trend to continue, with IFP expected to increase about 32% in the 2026 first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain negative for the first three quarters of the year and the full year, but the outlook is for a 50% improvement in the loss.

Lemonade stock has seen major swings recently, and it’s trading roughly flat this year despite the broader market recovery. If it beats Wall Street’s expectations in the first quarter, the stock should reflect enthusiasm; conversely, if it misses, the stock should reflect pessimism. However, broader economic issues may impact what’s happening in the stock market.

In any case, it’s the long-term thesis that looks really exciting, and risk-tolerant investors might want to buy the stock now, no matter what happens after earnings.