They’re finally here. Deliveries of the much-anticipated Rivian (RIVN +7.85%) R2 fleet have begun, and so begins an extraordinarily important chapter for the electric vehicle (EV) maker. The R2 isn’t just another model. With a starting price of less than $47,000, it’s Rivian’s push into the mainstream through a more affordable option.

The company’s ability to challenge Tesla‘s (TSLA +1.65%) dominance really hinges on the success and reception of the R2. Rivian’s previous models are luxury-oriented, with price tags starting at over $70,000. They are highly rated by drivers, but because of their price point, they are out of reach for most.

It hasn’t been an easy year for EV makers. The federal EV tax credit was eliminated, and demand for EVs has subsided in the U.S. Several legacy automakers have also downsized or canceled EV-related plans. While the environment is challenging for Rivian, there is an opportunity to reinvigorate the EV market and capture additional market share, especially from dominant rival Tesla.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Rivian’s business model is divided into two segments: automotive and software and services. The automotive division is still posting heavy losses, but software and services are profitable. Rivian’s total revenue for the first quarter of 2026 reached $1.38 billion, an 11% increase from the year prior. The company’s stock has decreased by about 20% in 2026 as of this writing.

Tesla still dominates Rivian in terms of market share. Combined, Tesla and China’s BYD account for about 25% of all EVs worldwide. Rivian has a very long way to go to overtake Tesla in the U.S. and then compete globally, but the first step is through the success and growing popularity of the affordable R2.

If this fleet is a hit among mainstream drivers in the U.S., it’ll help Rivian gain important ground in the U.S. I wouldn’t count on Tesla being dethroned for several more years, however.

But the timing of an MOU could emerge as a last-minute snag.

President Donald Trump insisted on Saturday that he will sign a deal on Sunday, which also happens to be his 80th birthday.

That came after Pakistan’s prime minister said earlier on Saturday that an agreement is closer than “ever before” and expected it to be finalized within 24 hours.

Pakistan, which has served as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran, is preparing for an electronic signing, followed immediately by technical-level talks next week.

But Tehran pushed back, with its Fars News Agency denying that anything will be signed on Sunday and instead dismissing “Trump’s strange insistence” for that day.

“An hour ago, Trump once again emphasized that the memorandum of understanding with Iran will be signed on Sunday,” it said in a post on X. “This comes even as Iranian officials have explicitly stated that the agreement has not been finalized and will definitely not take place on Sunday.”

Iran’s foreign ministry also maintained that the MOU will not be signed on Sunday—but didn’t rule out that it could happen in the coming days.

To be sure, there have been several times when it looked like both sides were on the verge of a deal, but nothing happened. Reading between the lines this time, however, Iran watchers see a less substantive issue at play.

“They don’t want to give Trump a birthday gift! (seriously, this is being discussed as an important factor among Iranian commentators),” said Hamidreza Azizi, an analyst at SWP Berlin.

Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew agreed, and also quipped, “Seems fitting that this should serve as the endgame.”

He predicted the MOU could be signed when it’s Sunday night in the eastern U.S., but early Monday morning in Iran.

Of course, more serious matters could still derail the MOU. For example, Iran has vowed to charge fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a non-starter for the U.S.

Tehran is also demanding immediate sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets, while the U.S. has said that could come in phases as Iran satisfies its end of the bargain, especially on winding down its nuclear program.

The U.S. and Iran are also still exchanging fire, with Central Command saying Friday that U.S. forces shot down Iranian drones that were targeting commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Trump is planning other birthday activities. On Sunday, UFC will stage a fight on the South Lawn of the White House, the first such event at the executive mansion.

The mixed martial spectacle, which features a giant claw-like structure that was built around UFC’s Octagon, is timed for Trump’s birthday and the celebration of the nation’s 250th anniversary.

Last year, Trump celebrated his 79th birthday with a military parade along the streets of Washington, DC, that coincided with the Army’s 250th birthday.