Cryptocurrency just became further entrenched in the mortgage world thanks to a new partnership between Better and Coinbase.
The two companies have collectively launched a “token-backed mortgage” that adheres to the standards of Fannie Mae.
That means it’s a conforming mortgage that enjoys favorable underwriting guidelines and lower mortgage rates versus typical token-backed loans.
Borrowers will be able to pledge their Bitcoin (BTC) or USDC as collateral to fund their cash down payment, without liquidation.
And all Coinbase One members are eligible for a rebate worth 1% of the loan amount, capped at $10,000 to cover closing costs.
Better + Coinbase Mortgages Backed by Fannie Mae
There has been a push for a while now to allow crypto in the mortgage world.
A handful of lenders have already started offering crypto mortgages, including Figure, Newrez, Milo, and Moon Mortgage.
But this latest offering involves two very big names in the business, Better Mortgage (NASDAQ: BETR) and Coinbase, which is a household leader in the crypto world.
Together, they are offering so-called “token-backed mortgages,” which allow the use of cryptocurrency while also adhering to the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae, an industry first.
This gives them conforming loan status, the most common type of mortgage on the market.
As such, they are more liquid and easily saleable to investors of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Being more liquid means mortgage rates can be lower, all else equal.
This contrasts some other crypto mortgages that allow for virtual currency usage, but might come with steeper costs.
How the Token-Backed Mortgage From Coinbase Works
Better says unlike traditional securities-backed loans used for down payment, mortgage borrowers will be able to pledge specific quantities and/or certain types of tokens, rather than their entire account value.
This is facilitated via Coinbase Custody, whereby the customer can pledge Bitcoin or USDC as collateral to fund their down payment in lieu of cash.
They say additional digital assets will be eligible over time, including tokenized equities, fixed income, and other tokenized real estate assets.
Instead of having to bring cash to the closing table, you pledge Bitcoin or USDC and receive two loans.
The first is a conforming mortgage backed by Fannie Mae, and the second mortgage is for the down payment, secured by the crypto that you pledge.
Eligible tokens are valued at 40% of market value for BTC and 80% for USDC, meaning $100,000 in BTC would give you $40,000 in down payment funds (or $80k for USDC).
The down payment loan (second mortgage) carries the same interest rate and repayment term as the token-backed first mortgage.
Better Crypto Mortgage Example
Here’s an example of a $400,000 home purchase with a 20% down payment (helpful to secure a lower interest rate and avoid PMI).
That would normally require an $80,000 down payment, but using a crypto pledge, you can only come out of pocket $40,000.
The other $40,000 comes via the pledge, requiring $100,000 in Bitcoin to get the loan.
As noted, you do pay interest on the loan and it’s the same interest rate as the first mortgage, which generally speaking is fairly attractive because second mortgages are typically priced a lot higher.
However, the pledge isn’t released until your mortgage is fully repaid or refinanced.
Both loans are originated by Better Mortgage, and until the loan is repaid, Better Mortgage retains custody of your crypto in its custodial account on the Coinbase platform.
A minimum 680 FICO is required, 15-year and 30-year fixed mortgage options are available, and any property type allowed by Fannie Mae works, including single-family homes, condos, and townhouses.
There are no margin calls or top-ups associated with the pledge, and if BTC drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged and no additional collateral is required by the borrower.
They say “market movements alone never trigger liquidation,” and that collateral is only at risk in the event of a 60-day loan delinquency, which they claim is similar to a conforming mortgage.
In addition, Better says those pledging USDC can “earns rewards that can help offset mortgage payments,” effectively reducing their mortgage interest rate in the process.
Coinbase One Members Get a 1% Lender Credit on Their Mortgage
To sweeten the deal, Better is also offering a rebate (lender credit) worth 1% of the mortgage loan amount to cover closing costs and fees.
It is capped at $10,000, meaning a borrower who takes out a $1 million mortgage would get $10,000 to use toward things like a loan origination fee, title insurance, or even a rate buydown.
Collectively, this means someone taking out a Better + Coinbase mortgage might be able to get approved more easily while not settling for a higher interest rate in return.
Nor will they potentially trigger a taxable event by selling their assets, an issue that has prevented some crypto holders from buying a home.
Interested borrowers can visit the Better website to register for early access to this new product.
As always, take the time to compare rates/fees and the total cost to other banks and lenders to ensure you don’t miss out on a superior deal, even after factoring in any special promos.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
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Ankur Warikoo is an internet entrepreneur and India’s leading career mentor, reaching:
– 15Mn+ followers across YouTube, LinkedIn, Instagram, Twitter and Facebook
– 4X Bestselling author of Do Epic Shit (2021), Get Epic Shit Done (2022) Make Epic Money (2024), and Build an Epic Career (2025)
– Founder of WebVeda.com – an online school empowering young Indians, with 450,000+ career success stories and counting
– A career catalyst who’s been both the interviewer and interviewee, the founder and the funded, the mentor and the mentee.
– Having navigated multiple career pivots (from physicist to consultant to CEO to content creator), he’s now dedicated to helping you build an extraordinary career without making the same mistakes he did.
Featured in Fortune Magazine’s 40 under 40 List for India, Forbes Top 100 Digital Creators list, and LinkedIn India’s Top Voices, he brings real-world insights from his MBA at Indian School of Business, his time as CEO of Groupon India and nearbuy.com, and his journey of building multiple successful ventures.
In this upcoming episode ofConversations with Frank Fabozzi, CFA,Mark Anson,CFA, they discuss how institutional investors are positioning portfolios in a less-synchronized global economy.
Key Talking Points:
Private credit’s evolution from shadow banking to mainstream allocation
Geographic diversification in a less-synchronized global economy
Applying the equity risk premium as a valuation discipline
Allocating to artificial intelligence across platforms, data centers, and power
What if play isn’t a distraction from meaningful work, but the very thing that makes it better? In this episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast, host John Jantsch sits down with entrepreneur and Refinery29 co-founder Piera Gelardi to explore how a playful mindset can unlock creativity, strengthen relationships, and drive innovation in business and life.
Drawing from her new book The Playful Way, Gelardi explains why play is not something we earn after work, but a powerful tool that enhances how we work. From neuroscience insights to real-world business applications, this conversation reframes play as a strategic advantage rather than a frivolous activity.
Guest Bio
Piera Gelardi is an entrepreneur, speaker, and co-founder of Refinery29, a global media company focused on modern women’s lives across fashion, wellness, and culture. She helped grow the company from a small startup into a global brand with over $100M in revenue and 500+ employees. Gelardi is also the author of The Playful Way, where she explores how play can transform creativity, leadership, and resilience.
Key Takeaways
Play is a Performance Enhancer, Not a Reward Play isn’t something you earn after work. It is a mindset that improves creativity, problem solving, and relationships while you work.
Play Deprivation Has Real Consequences A lack of play leads to reduced resilience, limited perspective, and decreased intrinsic motivation, making work feel rigid and uninspiring.
Play Unlocks Innovation Through Divergent Thinking A playful mindset allows people to explore multiple possibilities instead of defaulting to safe, repetitive solutions.
There Are Multiple “Play Personalities” Play is not just humor or goofiness. It includes curiosity, imagination, movement, and visionary thinking, each valuable in different contexts.
The Playful Way vs. The Pressured Way Pressured means rigid, outcome focused, and driven by fear of failure. Playful means open, experimental, resilient, and idea generating.
Small Moments of Play Beat Forced Fun Integrating play into everyday work, not one off activities, builds authentic culture and engagement.
Experimentation is Play in Action Reframing initiatives as experiments lowers risk perception and encourages innovation, which is key to marketing and growth.
Leadership Sets the Tone for Play Leaders must model vulnerability and playfulness to create psychological safety for teams.
Great Moments (Timestamps)
00:01 – The Big Idea Why play might be the missing ingredient in meaningful work and creativity.
01:30 – A Playful Upbringing How Gelardi’s early life shaped her belief that play and productivity can coexist.
02:54 – The Science of Play Research on play deprivation and how play rewires the brain for growth and resilience.
04:32 – The Misconception of Play at Work Why play gets dismissed and how different forms of play show up in business.
06:57 – Innovation Through Play How a playful mindset leads to breakthrough ideas instead of recycled thinking.
09:32 – Practical Play Exercises Simple tools like shake breaks and curiosity questions to unlock team creativity.
12:28 – The Refinery29 Story From startup blog to global media brand and how experimentation fueled growth.
14:14 – Avoiding Forced Fun Culture Why play must be integrated into daily work, not treated as a gimmick.
16:56 – Play in Marketing How experimentation and low risk testing led to the viral success of 29 Rooms.
19:50 – Reconnecting With Play as Adults Why we lose playfulness and how to rediscover it through small actions.
Memorable Quotes
“Play is not the opposite of seriousness. It is what makes seriousness bearable.”
“When we think of something as an experiment, it stops feeling so high stakes, and that is when creativity opens up.”
“Playfulness creates the most innovative ideas, the best relationships, and the resilience to work through problems.”
Where to Learn More
Book:The Playful Way available at major booksellers
Availability: Nationwide (excludes NY & FL and any other state without a branch unless you have an existing relationship)
Direct deposit required: Yes
Additional requirements: None
Hard/soft pull: Soft
ChexSystems: Mixed data points
Credit card funding: Can fund up to $250 with a credit card
Monthly fees: $12, avoidable
Early account termination fee: None
Household limit: None
Expiration date: June 30, 2026
The Offer
Direct link to offer
U.S. Bank is offering state farm customers a $500 bonus when they open a new checking account and complete the following requirements:
Use promo code SFAC26
Enroll in the U.S Bank Mobile App or online banking.
Complete at least two direct deposits totaling $5,000 or more
The Fine Print
To be eligible, the Primary Signer on your new Bank Smartly Checking account cannot have an existing U.S. Bank consumer checking account, had a U.S. Bank consumer checking account in the last 12 months or received other U.S. Bank consumer checking bonus offers within the past 12 months A minimum of $25 is required to open a U.S. Bank Smartly Checking account.
To earn the $500 bonus offer, you must open a new U.S. Bank Smartly® Checking account through an authorized State Farm Agent or directly through usbank.com/sfbonus.
New checking account must be opened by June 30, 2026. Additionally, you must enroll in the U.S. Bank Mobile App or online banking within 90 days of opening your account.
You must also complete two or more direct deposits within 90 days of opening your account that total: $5,000 or more and complete 2 or more debit card purchases tied to the account to earn the $500 bonus. A direct deposit is an electronic deposit of your paycheck or government benefits, such as Social Security, from your employer or the government.
Other electronic deposits or person-to-person payments are not considered a direct deposit. Your checking bonus (“adjusted interest”) will be credited to your new checking account within 60 days of direct deposit verification, debit purchase verification, and verification of enrollment in online banking or the U.S. Bank Mobile App as long as your account is open and has a positive balance. Bonus will be reported as interest earned on IRS form 1099-INT and recipient is responsible for any applicable taxes.
Current U.S. Bank employees are not eligible.
All bank account bonuses are treated as income/interest and as such you have to pay taxes on them
Avoiding Fees
Monthly Fees
U.S. Bank Smartly has a $12 monthly fee, this is waived if you do any of the following:
Have at least $1,500 in monthly direct deposits.
Hold a minimum average account balance of $1,500.
Be an owner on an eligible small business checking account.
Belong to an eligible customer group2 such as youth, young adult, senior or military.
Qualify for Smart Rewards Gold Tier or above.
Be an owner on a Bank Smartly™️ Visa Signature® Card or personal State Farm credit card for Alliance clients.
Early Account Termination Fee
There is no early account termination fee to worry about
Our Verdict
Same as the $450 checking bonus, but exclusively for state farm customers. It does verify that your a state farm customer during application flow so keep that in mind. Will add a note to the best bank account bonus page so state farm customers don’t miss this.
Hat tip to reader Bockrr
Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:
A Beginners Guide To Bank Account Bonuses
Bank Account Quick Reference Table (Spreadsheet) (very useful for sorting bonuses by different parameters)
PSA: Don’t Call The Bank
Introduction To ChexSystems
Banks & Credit Unions That Are ChexSystems Inquiry Sensitive
What Banks & Credit Unions Do/Don’t Pull ChexSystems?
How To Use Our Direct Deposit Page For Bank Bonuses Page
Common Bank Bonus Misconceptions + Why You Should Give Them A Go
How Many Bank Accounts Can I Safely Open Within A Year For Bank Bonus Purposes?
Affiliate Links & Bank Bonuses – We Won’t Be Using Them
Complete List Of Ways To Close Bank Accounts At Each Bank
Banks That Allow/Don’t Allow Out Of State Checking Applications
The U.S. military conflict with Iran is quietly draining the American labor market, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the oil price shock triggered by the war will suppress payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year — a toll that will be felt most acutely in restaurants, hotels, and retail stores across the country.
In a research note published Thursday, Goldman economist Pierfrancesco Mei laid out a detailed framework for how higher energy prices translate into labor market pain — and the picture isn’t pretty. As explained by the bank earlier in the week, its commodities strategists expect Brent crude to average $105 in March, spike to $115 in April, and then gradually retreat to $80 in the fourth quarter, assuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted for roughly six weeks. In an adverse scenario — one where the conflict deepens — Brent could peak as high as $140 a barrel, or $160 in a “severely adverse” scenario.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran shows no signs of imminent resolution, even as President Trump signals urgency to wrap it up. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has indicated the conflict is expected to last four to six weeks, in line with Goldman’s projections, while Trump told Fox Business that a deal could come as quickly as five days. But experts are far more skeptical: analysts at Brookings warn that without genuine regime change, Iran could rebuild its capabilities and fuel regional instability, while Maximilian Hess of Ementena Advisory told CNBC the situation is a “lose-lose for Washington,” with Iran’s drone advantage and Gulf pressure making a ground war increasingly likely.
Where the jobs are disappearing
The damage isn’t distributed evenly. Goldman’s sector-level analysis points to leisure and hospitality as the single hardest-hit industry, accounting for roughly 5,000 lost jobs per month, with retail trade shedding another 2,000. The logic is straightforward: when energy prices surge, consumers cut back on discretionary spending first — skipping vacations, eating out less, and trimming shopping trips — while continuing to pay for essentials like healthcare and housing. The oil shock, in other words, hits the working-class service economy well before it touches more insulated sectors.
That dynamic is hitting Gen Z especially hard. A recent Bank of America Institute report found that after nearly two years of lagging other generations in spending, Gen Z’s year-over-year spending growth had actually surpassed Baby Boomers’ by mid-2025 — fueled by slowing rent growth and wages rising roughly 9% year-over-year. But with national gas prices now up approximately 26% year-over-year as of March 23, BofA economists Joe Wadford and David Michael Tinsley warned that the recovery “could be snuffed out before it fully takes hold.” Gen Z carries the highest ratio of gasoline spending to discretionary spending of any generation — and many work in the very leisure and hospitality jobs Goldman now projects will see the steepest cuts. It’s a feedback loop that hits them from both sides: higher costs at the pump and fewer hours at work.
Shock weakened by shale — but not eliminated
Goldman is careful to note that the U.S. economy is far more resilient to oil price shocks than it was in the 1970s. The bank estimates that the effects of a 10% increase in oil prices on unemployment and payroll growth are now roughly one-third as large as they were between 1975 and 1999. Two structural shifts explain the change: the lower oil intensity of U.S. GDP, which reduces the drag on consumer spending and business investment, and the boom in domestic shale production since 2010, which creates an offsetting cushion of energy-sector jobs and capital expenditure.
That cushion, however, is thinner than it used to be. Dramatic productivity improvements in oil extraction mean that even if production ramps up in response to higher prices, the energy sector isn’t likely to add many new workers. Goldman does not expect a meaningful increase in energy capital expenditure, meaning support industries like pipeline construction, oil machinery manufacturing, and oil transportation will see little boost this time around.
Unemployment headed to 4.6%
The cumulative effect is showing up in Goldman’s macro forecasts, which were also adjusted earlier in the week. The bank said it expected the U.S. unemployment rate to climb 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% by the third quarter of 2026 — with the oil shock accounting for roughly half of that rise and the other half reflecting job growth that was already running too slowly to keep pace with labor supply before the conflict began.
Goldman noted that its unemployment projections align closely with simulations run through the Federal Reserve’s own FRB/US model, lending additional credibility to the estimates. In a severely adverse oil price scenario, however, the unemployment hit could reach 0.3 percentage points above the baseline — a scenario that would push joblessness meaningfully higher and potentially force the Fed’s hand on interest rates.
The findings, authored by Goldman’s U.S. Economics team led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, come as Wall Street is increasingly war-gaming the macroeconomic fallout of the Iran conflict — a crisis that has already prompted Goldman to cut its GDP growth forecast and raise its inflation outlook. For younger Americans — who just months ago were finally catching a financial break — the war’s economic cost may prove a particularly cruel twist. The 10,000-jobs-per-month drag is described as a net figure, accounting for any limited gains the energy sector manages to produce. The bottom line: for American workers, the war in Iran has an economic price tag — and it’s being paid every single month.
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
Here at FlexJobs, we loathe job search scams and are truly interested in helping job seekers identify and steer clear of “too good to be true” job opportunities.
FlexJobs’ CEO, Sara Sutton, started FlexJobs in 2007 to fight back against the frustrating — and often harmful — fraudulent scams in the work-at-home job market. That’s why we hand-screen every single job and company before it’s posted on our site: to help job seekers stay safe and avoid job search scams.
Work-at-home jobs have always been a target of scammers. However, they’ve recently become even larger targets amid the COVID-19 crisis.
Unfortunately, many people have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic. And given that many nonessential businesses in the U.S. have had to cut hours and reduce staff, finding a new job can be difficult.
Scammers are incredibly tuned into the fact that some job seekers are desperate to make money, and they will use this in recruiting new professionals who may not be accustomed to looking for work-from-home jobs.
Knowing how to differentiate legitimate work opportunities from harmful ones is the best way to protect yourself in your search for a remote job. And while job scams can pop up in any profession, we’ve got a list of the most common job search scams you should be aware of.
1. Data entry scams
Undrey / Shutterstock.com
Data entry scams come in many forms, but the common theme is that they promise a lot of money for a job that does not require much skill.
Jobs in this category often require an upfront payment for processing or training and very rarely pay as well as advertised. There are legitimate data entry jobs out there, but they do not advertise extravagant wages, and they do not require an initial outlay of funds.
Actual job posting for a data entry scam:
“Numerous companies are looking for workers to submit information into online forms and they will pay you nicely in return. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme but a legitimate way to earn money from home. For Full Details please read the attached .html file.”
2. Pyramid marketing
Pathdoc / Shutterstock.com
Pyramid marketing is illegal and has no basis in real commerce. Typically, there is no product involved in a pyramid marketing scheme, just the exchange of money.
Similar to chain letters, people invest in pyramid marketing because they believe they will benefit from investments made by people who follow them into the program. For someone to make money with a pyramid marketing scheme, someone else must lose funds.
Actual job posting for a pyramid marketing scam:
“My name is Michael. I’ve made it my job to help people succeed online. I’m constantly on the lookout for the best ways and means to make your job simpler, and I pass the good stuff on to you. I have developed the eBay Cash Machine – it allows everyone to make a great income on eBay 99% automatically. It only takes a few minutes to set up and once that is done you will have your own eBay Businesses that literally run on auto-pilot! You just wait for the money to come in!”
3. Stuffing envelopes
Moonborne / Shutterstock.com
Stuffing envelopes is a job scam that has been around for many years. Although variations exist, this scam typically involves signing up and paying a fee to “stuff envelopes from home.”
Once enrolled, you receive a document explaining how to get others to buy the same envelope-stuffing opportunity you did. You earn a small commission when someone else falls for the scam and pays the nonrefundable fee.
Actual job posting for an envelope stuffing scam:
“$550 to $3,000 weekly. Ten dollars for each circular you mail…Free postage…Free circulars…No newspaper ads…No magazine ads…No bulletin board ads! Paychecks mailed to you every week! Advance paycheck forms included in your package!”
4. Wire transfers
Odua Images / Shutterstock.com
Popular among thieves, wire transfer scams move money quickly from one account to another. These transactions are difficult to reverse, making it nearly impossible to recover lost funds.
Although sometimes the request for a money transfer may seem legitimate, it should always be thoroughly checked out. Scammers have been known to pose as company executives asking employees to fraudulently move money from one account to another.
Actual job posting for a wire transfer scam:
“We are small new firm engaged in export of goods to overseas outside my country. We have won various small exports contract at one time or the other, recently we were (engaged) contracted to supply financial programs for market analyzing, management project software in USA which was successfully done. We do not have so much time to accept wire transfers and can’t accept cashiers checks and money orders as well. So we need your help to accept this payments in your country faster. If you are looking to make additional profit we will accept you as our representative in your country. You will keep 10% of each deal we conduct.”
5. Unsolicited job offers
fizkes / Shutterstock.com
Unsolicited job offers often come in the form of a job scam email. These offers are not sought out by the job seeker and offer either immediate employment or the opportunity to interview for a great job.
Some scammers will even pretend to be from a well-known company or job board (such as FlexJobs, ZipRecruiter, or Indeed) to convince a job seeker to interview. These offers may also come in through social media (like Facebook or Instagram).
Even LinkedIn is no stranger to job search and recruitment scams. It is possible that a legitimate recruiter is reaching out to you about a legitimate job. It’s also possible that it is a scam.
Scammers will use LinkedIn to reach out to targets, knowing you’re more likely to fall for the scam because the message is coming through LinkedIn. Treat every unsolicited offer as a job scam — no matter where it comes from.
Actual job posting for an unsolicited job offer scam:
“Our Worldwide Corporation is looking for new employees on various vacancies. We are already for a long time in the market and now we employ employees to work from home. Our supreme desire now is to enlarge our business level to more countries, so we are advertising here in hope of cooperating with you all. We highly appreciate honest and creative employers. You do not need to invest any sum of money and we do not ask you to give us with your bank account requisites! We are engaged in totally officially authorized activity and working in our corporation you can reach career growth at a permanent job.”
6. Online re-shipping
Luis Molinero / Shutterstock.com
Online re-shipping is a very serious job search scam because those who fall for it unintentionally become criminals.
Re-shipping jobs, also known as postal forwarding, are work-at-home jobs that involve repacking and forwarding stolen goods to customers outside the U.S.
Although promised a paycheck and reimbursement for shipping charges paid out of their own pocket, those who fall victim to this type of scam rarely receive any money.
Actual job posting for an online re-shipping scam:
“Honest workers needed for a package processing company located in NY, but any location in US are welcome! We have customers worldwide and started that position to suit they needs. We offer you 40$ for each processed package. The payment shall be made twice a month. The Company shall also bear all shipping expenses. Your salary is totaly depends on your ability to work fast and handy.”
7. Rebate processor
one photo / Shutterstock.com
Rebate processing jobs mislead job seekers by promising high income in exchange for processing rebates at home. A nonrefundable “training” fee is usually required to get started as a rebate processor.
Instead of simply processing rebates, this job involves creating ads for various products and posting them on the Internet. A small commission is earned when someone buys the products, part of which is sent back to the buyer as a rebate.
Actual job posting for a rebate processor scam:
“Make money simply by filling out online forms – Enter the data into the forms that we provide you, click submit, sit back and collect the money. You’ll earn $15 per rebate processed. Opportunities like this do not come by every day – act now!”
8. Assembling crafts/products
Stasique / Shutterstock.com
Work-at-home assembly jobs have been around a long time. Most companies offering these positions require you to pay an enrollment fee and purchase all supplies and materials from them as well.
Companies are known to reject finished products regardless of how closely they match the sample finished product. Or, you have to buy a list of companies looking for your assembly services. Once you pay for the list, however, you rarely find the work you thought you would.
Actual job posting for a craft assembly scam:
“The first thing that you’ll be receiving is a portfolio of all of our companies, their pay scales and the things you can assemble. That’s so you can pick out your job because there are about 85 different jobs for you to choose from and you are guaranteed any of those jobs. We do have a one-time, lifetime enrollment fee of only $38.95. Now, that enrollment fee is backed with a 90-day Satisfaction Guarantee. All we ask is that you participate in the program for 60 days.”
9. Career advancement grants
Atstock Productions / Shutterstock.com
This scam is geared toward job seekers who may want or need to gain extra education or certifications for their career. You’ll typically receive an email asking you to apply online for a career advancement grant that supposedly comes from the government and can be directly deposited into your account if approved.
Actual job posting for a career advancement grant scam:
“Hi, hope you are doing well. We were notified that you may be eligible for the new Career Advancement grant. If you have not taken advantage of this program, the deadline is approaching soon. $5,730 can be direct deposited into your account, should you qualify for the grant. Last week 71 members took advantage of this Career Advancement grant. This is a grant from the government and does not have to be paid back.”
10. Using fake URLs
Bacho / Shutterstock.com
You come across an online job listing from a well-known company offering work-from-home jobs. Is it too good to be true? Is the company really the company it claims to be?
Scammers will try to recreate the legitimate company’s website by slightly altering the web address. If you’re not looking closely, you may not realize that you’re on a scam website.
For example, a real company website might have the address companyname.com. But, when you’re looking at the fake website, the address is company-name.com.
It’s a subtle change, but it could indicate you’re not on the company’s real website.
11. Gaining access to personal financial information
PR Image Factory / Shutterstock.com
This could be the oldest and most well-known scam tactic in the books. Even the most tech-savvy job scammers use this method because it still works.
It is true that before you start a job, you need to give your employer your Social Security number. And since most companies pay salaries via direct deposit, you will eventually need to share your banking information, too.
However, if a company is asking you for this information early (like asking for your Social Security number on a job application, or wanting your banking information before they can offer you the job), the job is likely a scam.
12. Communicating through chat
fizkes / Shutterstock.com
Scammers use instant messaging services to communicate and conduct fake job interviewers with job seekers. Although convenient, it is rare to actually secure a job or conduct a job interview with a legitimate company through a chat platform.
If you are approached through chat, be sure to request that they give you a call, and do your research before interviewing to see if the results yield any red flags.
13. Lacking verifiable information
Stock-Asso / Shutterstock.com
You may have thought you found your dream job, but upon further inspection you can’t find any information about the company.
If you can’t verify a phone number, location, web address, or employees, you’re definitely looking at a scam. In this day and age, real companies will have an online presence and some social media engagement — if they don’t have a decent following, they may not be legitimate.
14. Phishing
pathdoc / Shutterstock.com
Emails, texts, phone calls, or instant messages — you name it, and there is a phishing scam.
If a job is requiring you to click on a specific link or is asking for detailed personal and financial information, someone is trying to collect your sensitive information for malicious use.
Phishing scams often look like they come from a trusted and well-known company, so always reach out to an employer directly through their legitimate website rather than respond to any “phish-y” looking communication.
How to identify job scams
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There are some telltale signs that indicate a job posting is probably a scam:
The ad uses words that are probably too good to be true: quick money, unlimited earning potential, free work-from-home jobs.
There is a sense of urgency, or the recruiter is pushing you to accept the job now. Any legitimate company won’t push you into accepting a job offer immediately.
The job post or email has obvious grammatical or spelling errors.
You’re offered the job without a recruiter verifying your work experience or asking for references.
The “company” has an email domain from Gmail or other popular providers.
The job description is unusually vague.
While anyone can fall prey to job scams, there are a few things you can do to keep yourself safe while you search online:
Do your homework. Research the company and the people who contact you. What results do you get when you search company name + scam?
Connect with the company. Go directly to the company website and see if the job is posted on their jobs page.
Trust your gut. If it feels like a scam, it probably is.
The DMP is a monthly online survey of UK businesses with ten or more employees. Launched in 2016, it is run by the Bank of England, in collaboration with King’s College London and the University of Nottingham. In December 2024 the survey reached its one-hundredth wave. Firms are regularly asked about the annual growth in their output prices, as well as about year-ahead own-price expectations. In addition, since May 2022, firms have reported their current CPI inflation perceptions, one-year CPI expectations, and three-year CPI expectations. By January 2026, the survey had received 33,000 responses on CPI perceptions and expectations from over 6,000 unique firms.
The dynamics of firms’ CPI perceptions and expectations
Chart 1: Average perceptions track CPI closely, while near-term expectations have declined significantly since 2022
Note: CPI expectations are plotted at the survey date and are not time-shifted forward.
How have firms’ perceptions and expectations of CPI evolved since 2022? Chart 1 shows that firms’ perceptions of current CPI (red line) have tracked CPI inflation closely (grey bars), with an average absolute perception error of only 0.31 percentage points (pps). In contrast, CPI inflation expectations have been less accurate. For example, one-year CPI expectations (green line) have an average absolute forecast error of 1.55 pps over this period. These near-term expectations also declined more gradually than CPI inflation over 2023. Year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were on average 4.9% in June 2023, whereas a year later CPI inflation had fallen to 2%. Gautier et al (2025) noted a similar pattern, using survey data from French firms. Finally, three-year CPI inflation expectations have been more stable since 2022, ranging from 2.5% to 4.5%. In mid-2024, perceptions and expectations converged at around 3%. Since then, the series have gradually diverged, jointly with higher CPI inflation.
Chart 2: Disagreement between firms in perceptions and expectations have fallen
Chart 2 depicts how the standard deviation of perceptions and expectations (a commonly used proxy for disagreement between firms) varied over time. Dispersion in perceptions and expectations is positively correlated with the inflation rate. Interestingly, between 2022 and 2024, dispersion for one-year CPI was higher than for three-year CPI inflation. Since 2024, firms’ beliefs around one-year and three-year CPI have shown a similar level of dispersion, whereas disagreement around current CPI inflation has fallen further. Chart 2 also provides indirect evidence on expectation errors. While the standard deviation of beliefs declined as inflation fell, the dispersion relative to the mean fell less and, in some cases, even increased. This measure reflects that an absolute error – say, 1 pp – is relatively larger and more meaningful at lower levels of inflation.
Firm-level determinants of perception and expectation errors
Past research shows that firms’ own-price forecast errors are negatively correlated with profitability and total factor productivity (TFP). The ability to correctly perceive current conditions and predict future ones may have important implications for long-term performance, and performance may in turn reinforce accuracy. We begin by analysing whether CPI perception and expectation errors are correlated with key firm characteristics, such as productivity and size.
Chart 3: Larger and more productive firms make smaller absolute forecast errors
Notes: Controls: industry fixed effects and time fixed effects. Includes 95% C.I. Coefficients from joint regression including all firm determinants. Dependent variables standardised to mean zero and unit variance.
Chart 3 shows how two key firm characteristics – labour productivity and number of employees – correlate with CPI perception, CPI expectation and own-price expectations errors. The coefficients are based on regressions with industry and time fixed effects, and we standardise the dependent variables to have zero mean and unit variance for comparability. Higher firm productivity (left panel) is associated with significantly smaller perception and one-year CPI expectation errors. The relationship with three-year expectation errors is also negative, although less precisely estimated, likely due to the smaller sample for these series. The relationship with the number of employees (right panel) shows similar patterns, with significant effects across all perception and expectation error measures. Furthermore, we find a stable relationship between these firm characteristics and expectations over time. Overall, we conclude that firm productivity and size are robust determinants of firm perception and expectation errors, across multiple definitions and horizons.
Firm-level relationship between CPI perceptions and expectations
Chart 4: Perceptions of high current inflation are associated with higher expectations of future inflation
Notes: Controls: firm fixed effects, time fixed effects and CPI inflation.
How sensitive are inflation expectations to current inflation? We analyse the relationship between firm-level perceptions and expectations, how it varies over time and across firm characteristics. While related to work on the impact of aggregate inflation data releases, our analysis uses firm-level variation in both perceptions and expectations. Chart 4 presents the coefficients of a regression of CPI perceptions on one-year and three-year expectations, controlling for firm and time fixed effects, as well as CPI inflation on the day of the firm response. Perceptions are strongly related to near-term expectations: a 1 pp increase in CPI perceptions is associated with a 0.35 pp–0.6 pp increase in near-term CPI expectations. The incomplete transmission indicates that firms do not purely extrapolate from current CPI, suggesting that firms incorporate additional information when forming expectations – for example forward-looking behaviour or belief in mean reversion towards target inflation.
In comparison to year-ahead expectations, the relationship between CPI perceptions and three-year expectations is weaker quantitatively across the sample, although still statistically significant. The weaker relationship for three-year expectations indicates that long-run beliefs are more anchored to long-term priors. The relationship is not constant over time. The sensitivity of expectations increased from late 2024 onward, coinciding with a renewed rise in inflation (grey bars). The sensitivity of three-year expectations to inflation perceptions appears to have peaked in 2025 Q3
Chart 5: CPI three-year expectations depend positively on one-year expectations
Notes: Controls: firm fixed effects, time fixed effects and CPI inflation.
In Chart 5 we analyse the relationship between one-year and three-year CPI expectations. This captures the term structure of inflation expectations: firms which update their short-run beliefs update their long-run forecasts in the same direction. The magnitude of the coefficients is below one, suggesting near-term expectations only partially correlate with medium-term expectations, and that the latter are more stable. Nevertheless, we find that the relationship has strengthened recently, indicating that medium-term expectations have become more responsive to near-term expectations as well as current CPI perceptions. While the results are not necessarily causal, they provide an insight into the expectations formation process of firms across horizon.
Own-price and CPI expectations
We next examine whether CPI expectations are correlated with firms’ expected change in the prices of their own goods and services (own price growth) in the year ahead. Understanding this link is crucial: It represents the channel through which aggregate inflation expectations translate into individual pricing decisions – ultimately influencing inflation dynamics. The link between own-price and CPI inflation expectations may be two-sided: firms may look at CPI when planning their own prices as well as extrapolate from their own-price growth to forecast inflation.
Chart 6: One-year CPI expectations matter for own-price expectations
Notes: Controls: firm fixed effects, time fixed effects and own-price growth.
As shown in Chart 6, we find a positive, significant and robust relationship between firms’ expected own-price growth and one-year CPI expectations, controlling for realised own-price growth experienced by the firm. This result suggests that near-term CPI expectations influence pricing intentions rather than merely reflecting backward-looking extrapolation. As expected, a coefficient lower than one indicates that while CPI is important for own-prices, firms recognise that their relative price can deviate from aggregate inflation based on sector-specific demand, competition and cost structure. The link with three-year CPI expectations is weaker and insignificant, consistent with longer term CPI serving more as an anchor than an input into pricing. To ensure that the results are not simply driven by common shocks, we re‑estimate the specifications using sector‑by‑time fixed effects and find that the positive links hold.
Chart 7: More productive firms react more to macro signals
Notes: Controls: firm fixed effects, time fixed effects and own-price growth. Low productivity corresponds to 0%–25% quantile and medium/high productivity corresponds to 25%–100% quantiles.
Finally, we investigate whether the link between CPI expectations and own-price expectations differs across firms, using labour productivity as the key characteristic. Chart 7 shows that for more productive firms, the relationship between one-year CPI expectations and expected own-price growth is almost twice as strong as for the bottom quartile of the distribution. Furthermore, more productive firms tend to have lower own-price growth expectations on average, consistent with productive firms facing greater competitive pressure, leading to more moderate pricing plans.
Conclusion
Firms’ perceptions and expectations play a central role in shaping inflation dynamics. UK firms have generally perceived inflation accurately, but near-term expectations adjusted more slowly during the 2023 disinflation. CPI expectations also have become more sensitive to current conditions; the increased sensitivity of three-year CPI expectations with respect to CPI perceptions and one-year expectations suggests that in our sample, expectations are less anchored than in previous years. Short-term CPI expectations matter for firms’ own-pricing. More productive firms make smaller errors, respond more to macroeconomic signals, and align CPI and own-price expectations more tightly. Our results highlight that understanding how firms form expectations across horizons, and how these expectations inform pricing, is crucial for assessing inflation persistence and the transmission of monetary policy.
Federico Pessina is a PhD student in Economics at UCL, and a PhD Intern in the Bank’s Structural Economics Division, Maren Froemel and Ivan Yotzov also work in the Bank’s Structural Economics Division.
If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.
Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.
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At Duolingo, job interviews start the moment a candidate steps into a car.
Luis von Ahn, the billionaire cofounder and CEO of the language-learning app, revealed on Phoebe Gates’ and Sophia Kianni’s The Burnouts podcast how a job candidate treats their driver from the airport to the office can make or break their chances of getting hired—regardless of how impressive their résumé looks or how much they like the candidate in the interview process.
Entrepreneur von Ahn, who cofounded Duolingo in 2011 with Severin Hacker, recalled a time when the company had been seeking a chief financial officer “for like a year.” The candidate had a strong résumé and the entire hiring committee “really liked,” he told The Burnouts in a February interview.
But “it turned out that they were pretty mean to their driver from the airport to the office,” von Ahn said. “And that made us not hire them.”
The CEO of Duolingo, which has a market cap of $4.65 billion, knew this because he pays taxi drivers to evaluate whether candidates are worth hiring.
“Our belief is if they’re going to be mean to the driver, they’re probably going to be mean to other people, particularly people under them,” he said.
It’s particularly important to Duolingo to hire the right person because of how much the company and von Ahn have leaned into AI. Last April, von Ahn said he was getting rid of contract employees and replacing them with AI.
“We can’t wait until the technology is 100% perfect,” von Ahn wrote in a memo posted to LinkedIn in April 2025. “We’d rather move with urgency and take occasional small hits on quality than move slowly and miss the moment.”
While von Ahn’s taxi-driver test is an unconventional interview test, candidates in today’s brutal job market are being evaluated in ways they may not even realize.
A job market where every detail counts
His approach comes at a time when landing a job has never felt more grueling. Hiring in tech has slowed drastically, with job postings down an estimated 36% from pre-2020 levels, according to Indeed’s 2025 Tech Talent Report. Meanwhile, more than 40,000 people working in tech have been laid off so far this year, Layoffs.fyi data shows.
Plus, interview processes have become much longer and more involved. Candidates routinely face five to eight interview rounds, panel presentations, case studies, and personality assessments before receiving an offer. The average time-to-hire in the U.S. is approximately 36 days from job posting to offer, according to research by Alex Benjamin, vice president of talent acquisition at OnPoint Consulting Services.
And on top of that, culture and character evaluations have quietly become a standard part of the process—even when candidates don’t know they’re being assessed.
Other CEOs with unorthodox hiring tactics
Duolingo’s CEO isn’t alone in looking beyond a résumé and interview to look for character signals.
Trent Innes, the former managing director of accounting platform Xeno, and now chief growth officer at SiteMinder, told The Ventures podcast in an episode published in September 2024 he uses a coffee-cup test to evaluate candidates.
When a job candidate arrives for an interview, the interviewer walks them to the kitchen for a beverage.
“Then we take that back, have our interview, and one of the things I’m always looking for at the end of the interview is, does the person doing the interview want to take that empty cup back to the kitchen?” Innes said.
For anyone who leaves their dirty cup behind after the interview and doesn’t offer to take it back to the kitchen, it’s a no-go.
“You can develop skills, you can gain knowledge and experience, but it really does come down to attitude, and the attitude that we talk a lot about is the concept of ‘wash your coffee cup,’” he said.
Even without odd tests, several big-name CEOs are vocal about how important street smarts and attitude are to securing a job. Amazon built its hiring process around its core Leadership Principles, with interviewers trained to probe for red flags, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has been outspoken about valuing street smarts and intellectual curiosity over pedigree alone.
“I care how you deal with our tellers, our guards, and our receptionists as much as I care how you deal with CEOs,” Dimon said in a July 2024 interview with LinkedIn. “It’s those 300,000 people that matter, and we have to set up right for everybody.”
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