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if war bad… why stocks go up?
The biggest stock market rally of the year had nothing to do with peace, the news, or anything else you were told. Wall Street lied to you.
On April 8th, the S&P ripped 2.5%, the Nasdaq jumped almost 3%, and the Dow had its best day in a year. Every financial outlet called it a “relief rally” on the back of the Iran ceasefire.
But the truth is, this was not a relief rally.
In this video, I’ll break down:
• Why hedge funds were selling at the fastest pace in 13 years
• How a short squeeze actually works
• The $86B of forced buying that compressed into five trading sessions
• How commodity trading advisors and options dealers turned a squeeze into a full-blown melt-up
• Why this exact pattern in the stock market keeps repeating
👉If one video wasn’t enough, I post everyday here:
All illustrations, visuals, and animations in this video are original and hand-drawn by a freelance artist.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this video and on this channel (collectively, the “Content”) is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment strategy. Investing involves risk and you must do your own research. Nothing in the Content should be interpreted as creating a fiduciary relationship, financial advisory relationship, or client relationship of any kind. The host, the channel, and all affiliated entities expressly disclaim any and all liability for any direct or consequential loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of, reliance upon, or interpretation of the Content. By viewing or interacting with the Content, you acknowledge and agree to these terms and release the host and all related parties from any and all claims related to your reliance on the information provided.
#economy #economics #wallstreet #stockmarket #investing #finance
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Michigan Seniors Can Now Get Into 21 Colleges Without A Traditional College Application
Michigan high school seniors can now get admitted to college without applying. The Michigan College Access Network (MCAN) opened its new MI College Match portal on Aug. 26, 2026, and 21 public and private colleges have signed on to send direct admission offers to students who fill out a free profile.
Students upload a transcript, answer a few questions about their interests and preferences, and wait for offers to arrive. There are no essays, no letters of recommendation, and no application fees.
The first deadline is September 21. Students who complete a profile by then will receive their first round of acceptance letters by Oct. 5, and will be entered for a chance at a $5,000 scholarship through the program. Students who sign up later still get offers, released on a monthly basis.
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Why It Matters
The college application process can be a massive challenge, and it’s the most impactful to first generation students who don’t have support to walk through the process.
MCAN Executive Director Ryan Fewins-Bliss put it this way in the launch announcement: “When colleges say, ‘We want you here, and you’re already admitted,’ it changes the entire conversation around postsecondary education.”
Michigan’s colleges also have an enrollment problem to solve. The Common App logged a record 10.8 million applications last cycle, but 41% of member colleges still received fewer applications than the year before, with small private schools losing the most ground.
In-state tuition at Michigan’s public four-year universities averages about $14,500, and 59% of Michigan graduates leave with debt. Participating colleges can attach scholarship offers to their admission letters, so a student may learn what a school will actually cost before deciding whether to engage with it at all.
Participating Colleges
As of Aug. 28, 2026, the MI College Match participating colleges page lists 21 schools. It’s important to note that the state’s flagship (The University of Michigan’s Ann Arbor campus) is not among them, and each school sets its own admission criteria. Kalamazoo College said the program changes how students find the school, not who gets in.
- Albion College
- Alma College
- Aquinas College
- Baker College
- Bay College
- Calvin University
- Cleary University
- Davenport University
- Great Lakes Christian College
- Kalamazoo College
- Lake Michigan College
- Monroe County Community College
- Montcalm Community College
- Oakland University
- Saginaw Chippewa Tribal College
- Schoolcraft College
- Spring Arbor University
- University of Detroit Mercy
- University of Michigan-Dearborn
- University of Michigan-Flint
- The University of Olivet
How This Connects
Direct admission is growing nationwide. California’s SB 640 takes the CSU system’s direct admission pilot from 43 school districts to all 937 by fall 2027, covering 16 of 23 campuses for students with a 2.5 GPA and the A-G course sequence.
Michigan’s model is different: it’s run by a nonprofit rather than the legislature, includes private colleges, and uses the same EAB matching software behind the Alabama Direct Admission Initiative, which sent more than 141,000 offers to over 18,000 students in its first year.
What’s Next
Watch the participating college count. The list already grew from 20 to 21 in the last two days, and MCAN is pushing the program through its 355 K-12 partner sites.
The bigger signal is whether Michigan’s remaining public universities, especially the larger regional campuses, join the program. Seniors who want to apply should build their application timeline around that date.
Editor: Colin Graves
The post Michigan Seniors Can Now Get Into 21 Colleges Without A Traditional College Application appeared first on The College Investor.
Trump threatens to blow Kharg Island ‘to smithereens’ as U.S. and Iran trade fresh strikes
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ONE BIG THING
Temu spent up to $962 million on ads that helped finance an army of fake creators on Meta, research claims
The top creator in Temu’s European partnership ad network on Facebook and Instagram is “YaLilly.” Her posts have been boosted by Temu and were seen more than 1 billion times across both platforms in a 16-month period ending in April 2026, according to Online Risk Labs, a cyber research organization. The only problem is that YaLilly doesn’t exist. In fact, of the top 100 creators boosted by Temu’s partnership ads, 73 are likely fakes, the research suggests.
And yet Temu spent as much as $962 million on ads like these in the period, in the U.K. and 27 E.U. countries, according to ORL.
It is not clear whether Temu is doing this deliberately or is being fooled by scammers into spending money on influencers who don’t exist. But the likely fake accounts could set up a legal quagmire for Temu, as European law bars the use of misleading advertising formats.
MORE FROM FORTUNE
Apple’s John Ternus era: Can a low-key engineer win the AI race? – Sebastian Herrera
Why Meta is Paying Billions to Settle This Case | Fortune Daily
The Strait of Hormuz crisis threatened Asia’s oil and gas lifeline. Here’s how the region is rewriting its energy playbook – Katie Silver
Why the head of Taiwan’s stock exchange wants you to look past TSMC—and embrace the ‘technology island’ – Nicholas Gordon
‘We’re facing a double whammy’: America’s hottest tinned fish snack is shrinking by nearly half thanks to climate change and war in Iran – Catherina Gioino
This Gen Xer spent 28 years in a cubicle and never made more than $70,000. At 59, she made $500,000 in the creator economy – Tatiana Sataua
31-year-old millionaire has zero sympathy for unemployed Gen Z’s ‘excuses’—he says ‘it is scarily easy’ to build a business and get rich right now – Orianna Rosa Royle
IRAN
Iran and the U.S. trade strikes
The price of Brent crude oil moved back above $90 today as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran intensified over the last 24 hours. On Sunday, the U.S. struck rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, which Centcom said were being prepared to launch sea mines. Iran responded by bombing American military bases in Jordan. The attack was the first since late July.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also reported that a tanker was disabled after it caught fire when it struck two sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker had not followed Iran’s rules for transiting the Strait, Iranian media reported.
President Trump posted an AI-generated video on Truth Social showing “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!” Kharg is the terminal through which Iran exports 90% of its oil.
Oil market shrugs at Venezuela deal
Oil’s rise came despite a post from Trump saying that the U.S. had struck a deal with Venezuela that “secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer. This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans.”
The agreement provides the U.S. government with a 55% stake in a joint venture with an unnamed private operator in Venezuela, a U.S. official told CBS News. Experts expressed some skepticism, saying that the deal would likely take months or years before new supplies come online.
THE MARKETS
Stocks mixed as traders eye hostilities in the Gulf
- S&P 500 futures were flat this morning. The index sank 0.25% on Friday.
- In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.11% in early trading. The U.K.’s markets were closed for the August bank holiday.
- Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.46%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.14%. India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.4%. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.35%.
- Brent crude was $91 per barrel this morning, up from a low of $87 in the previous 24 hours.
- Bitcoin was at $78,669.
Chart via TradingEconomics.com
The more they go up, the cheaper they get
The S&P 500 is up 12.65% year to date, and the Q2 earnings season was “exceptional,” according to J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Kriti Gupta and Nick Roberts. Counterintuitively, stocks are technically cheaper now than they were a year ago. That’s because that near-13% increase has underpriced the performance of the companies within the index. “Revenue across the S&P 500 has grown 16% year-over-year. Earnings growth is approaching a 52% rise,” they said in an email. “Despite the strength of the underlying fundamentals, investors have yet to fully reward it in the stock market. … The result is an unusual backdrop: Earnings are accelerating while valuations move in the opposite direction.”
At Bank of America, it’s a hot stock summer as Trump’s ratings decline
President Trump’s declining approval ratings will force him to find an end to the Iran war, according to Michael Hartnett and his colleagues at Bank of America. “Trump economic (35%) and inflation approval (28%) slumping again so [the] consensus [that stocks will] grind higher continues as [a] quick end to US-Iran conflict [is the] easiest way back to approval,” they said in a recent note.
Meanwhile, the summer vibe on Wall Street is “no macro landing, no Fed hike, no AI capex cut, no DEM sweep midterms = no fear” and “EPS better than Champagne,” they said. That is setting up “contrarian” traders to sell when they see the next market peak.
CHART OF THE DAY
AI buildout is nowhere near dot-com bubble excess
AI infrastructure buildout—as measured via the proxy of non-residential fixed investment—is currently 17.7% of GDP, according to Liz Everett Krisberg and David Tinsley of Bank of America. That’s “slightly above its long-term average but still within the range of earlier peaks,” they said in an email to Fortune.
NUMBER OF THE DAY:
$566 billion
The potential cumulative value of the lunar economy through 2050, according to a forecast by Deloitte. That’s the value of investment and revenues attached to lunar transport, scientific advances, new energy sources, national security “high ground,” helium-3 extraction, rocket propellant, orbital compute, in-space manufacturing, and innovative commercial applications.
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY
Andrew Bailey warns G20 of danger AI poses to financial system – FT
British Museum hosted Palantir founder Peter Thiel in private viewing of Bayeux tapestry – The Guardian
Russia preparing ‘massive strikes’ on Ukraine’s energy sites after deadliest attack of the year – CNBC
Inside the socialists’ civil war over AOC and 2028 – Axios
The Sudden Unraveling of Wall Street’s Momentum Trade – WSJ
Crypto.com-Linked Lending Platform Hit by $74 Million Exploit – Bloomberg
What It Took to Dismantle the Most Powerful Company in the World – NYT
OpenAI to cut off AI models for SpaceX-owned Cursor, escalating feud with Musk – NY Post
ONE MORE THING
Singles are using LinkedIn to screen their dates
LinkedIn’s rules are very clear: it is not a dating site. “Do not use LinkedIn to pursue romantic connections, ask for romantic dates, or provide sexual commentary on someone’s appearance or perceived attractiveness,” its policy states.
But a June survey by Zety of more than 1,000 U.S. employees found that one in four believe it’s “fair game” for romantic advances. The survey also found that 22% had reached out or responded to someone on LinkedIn with romantic intent, while 12% had formed a romantic relationship that originated on LinkedIn, Fortune’s Sarah Glodek reports.
And half of survey respondents believe that information on the platform is more reliable than the jobs and college attendance people claim on dating apps such as Hinge.
ONE MORE THING
Mizuho cuts PG&E stock rating on wildfire reform failure
Mizuho cuts PG&E stock rating on wildfire reform failure
inKind Is Expanding Beyond Restaurants With Spas and Trampoline Parks
inKind Is Expanding Beyond Restaurants
inKind might be branching out beyond dinner and drinks.
I recently spotted a non-restaurant option appearing in the inKind app, Wthn. This is an acupuncture and Traditional Chinese Medicine wellness business in New York City. They have several locations currently showing in the inKind app with up to 20% back when paying with a credit card. Interestingly, the listing specifically tells customers to book an appointment through Wthn’s website and then pay through inKind after the session.
I searched the app and also noticed that AustinDeep is a similar business in Austin with two locations which are both available in the inKind app, offering 20% cash back.
I shared this in our Facebook Group and another group member said a trampoline park they regularly visit recently appeared on inKind as well.
If you don’t have an inKind account yet, you can sign up now to save $25 on your first bill of $50 or more that you pay through the app. Recently they also introduced a new feature called Recommendation Rewards, which gives select users a way to earn inKind Cash by sharing restaurant offers.
Guru’s Wrap-up
I’ve always thought of inKind as a way to save money at restaurants and bars, so seeing acupuncture, spa services and trampoline parks pop up is definitely interesting.
If inKind is intentionally expanding into wellness, entertainment and other experiences, it could make inKind Cash and those frequent bonus offers much more useful.
For now, it’s worth opening the app and taking another look around your area. You might find something besides dinner this time. And don’t forget to let us know if you find any of these non-restaurant merchants!
How Warsh’s hawkish comments will impact mortgage rates
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh sent markets a clear, hawkish signal: don’t expect any interest rate policy shifts, post-speech commentators said.
Processing Content
Warsh, if anything, spoke out against providing
The speech was Warsh’s first as chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Coming in, market observers, including Kate Wood, NerdWallet’s lending expert, were feeling if
What Warsh’s comments mean for mortgage lending
Afterward the speech, Wood said she came away with the same impressions of Warsh she held after his first two press conferences after replacing Jerome Powell (who remains a Fed governor) as chair.
“Yes, he’s once again stating a firm commitment
Both of those actions could have an impact on mortgage rates. The Fed ended the balance sheet run-off program last December, but as mandated by President Trump, the
Inflation first priority
Warsh during the speech reiterated that the Fed’s primary objective is to tame inflation, said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. The Fed’s preferred measurement remains the personal consumption expenditures index.
“Prognostication about what measures he is using to determine success were put to rest with his clear reference to the 2% PCE target,” Fleming said. “The economy remains strong and, while the labor market may be in a low-hire, low-fire regime, the unemployment rate remains on target, which gives the Fed the freedom to focus on lowering inflation.”
The markets should look for higher short-term rates with the focus on lowering inflation, “but don’t expect a lot of communication about how and when the decision to raise rates will be done,” Fleming commented.
With this speech, “Warsh has opened the door to rate hikes, but has not taken any action,” added
The speech’s effect on the 10-year Treasury
Mortgage rates
During the speech, Warsh only mentioned housing specifically once and it was in passing.
“Now, certain sectors like housing and agriculture are showing strains, but on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,” he commented.
Warsh did speak about the Federal Open Market Committee communicating rate movements. The rates the FOMC sets do not directly impact mortgage pricing, but influence the underlying elements, like the 10-year Treasury yield.
“I believe when policymakers make quasi-commitments on interest rates throughout the cycle, we inhibit our own freedom to make the right calls when it’s time to decide,” Warsh said. “To get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between the central bank and financial markets.”
While the markets will anticipate what the Fed will do next for the short-term rates it controls, “we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade,” he said.
The 10-year Treasury yield, one of the items used to price mortgages, opened the day at 4.67%. When Warsh came to the podium the yield was at or near its day-low at 4.65%, but during the speech it rose to 4.7%, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
By 11 a.m. eastern time it was back to the opening price. But it changed direction again, rising to 4.73% by 1:30 p.m.
Observers have been making guesses after each new data point is released, most recently the personal consumption expenditures index, on whether the FOMC will or won’t hike short-term rates in September, or keep them unchanged. Little sentiment exists right now among investors that the next move will be lower.
Today’s market opinion on a September FOMC rate hike
“Despite the lack of new information, the odds of a rate hike in September have nearly flip-flopped from where they were yesterday,” Wood said. “It wouldn’t be surprising to see those expectations tempered relatively quickly.”
As of this morning after the speech, the CME Fed Watch Tool gives a 40.5% probability of no rate hike and 59.5% chance of a 25 basis point rise. Yesterday it was 64.6% for no hike and 35.4% for the basis point increase.
But by the time
Factor Risk in Sovereign Portfolios
Not all risks should be hedged. Long-horizon investors are designed to absorb illiquidity, tolerate short-term volatility, and earn the associated premia. Those risks are intentional. Systematic macro exposures are different. They often arise as a byproduct of portfolio construction rather than as a deliberate investment view.
Once these exposures are identified, they can, in many cases, be partially offset using liquid instruments. Emerging market credit exposure can be moderated through credit default swaps indices, broad market risk through equity index futures or ETFs, and commodity-linked sensitivities through futures and options on oil and industrial metals.
This is not to eliminate risk or smooth returns. It is to reduce the impact of systemic drawdowns—the periods when correlations rise, diversification benefits diminish, and shared risk drivers overwhelm otherwise differentiated investments. In practice, this is likely to involve partial rather than full hedging, increasing protection when vulnerabilities rise, and focusing on downside resilience rather than return enhancement.
In some cases, the most effective hedge is not the most direct one. For portfolios with significant exposure to commodity-linked economies, local currency movements often reflect underlying shocks in oil or metals rather than acting as independent sources of risk. Where currency markets are illiquid, hedging costs are high, or derivatives are constrained, commodity instruments may provide a more efficient means of mitigating the underlying exposure.
Factor-based overlays are not a substitute for conventional currency hedging, and basis risk remains an important consideration. They are a complement to it—one that shifts the focus from hedging individual positions to managing the common drivers of portfolio risk.
Spotify promotes Joe Hadley to VP of Global Music Content, Partnerships; J.J. Italiano named Head of Editorial
Spotify has promoted Joe Hadley to VP of Global Music Content and Partnerships.
The move hands Hadley leadership of Spotify‘s Music Editorial and Music Partnerships teams. It widens his remit across the company’s relationships with artists, labels, and the broader music industry.
Spotify says the new structure will preserve Editorial’s “distinct voice, expertise, and decision-making,” while creating “a more connected Music team.”
“Editorial is a key part of bringing an essential human touch to Spotify,” said Charlie Hellman, SVP and Global Head of Music at Spotify. “The team’s judgment and taste is what fans and artists rely on.
“Joe‘s capable leadership will keep artist advocacy at the center of our work and bring even more impact to the programming we do.”
Charlie Hellman, Spotify
“Joe‘s capable leadership will keep artist advocacy at the center of our work and bring even more impact to the programming we do.”
“Joe‘s capable leadership will keep artist advocacy at the center of our work and bring even more impact to the programming we do.”
Hadley‘s expanded role sits inside the Music organization Hellman leads.
J.J. Italiano has been named Head of Editorial as part of the same restructuring.
Italiano‘s role covers Global Curation, North American Editorial, and overall editorial strategy.
Italiano reports to Hadley.
In his previous role as Global Head of Music Partnerships & Audience, Hadley ran Spotify‘s global and North American partnership functions, spanning label, artist, songwriter, and publisher relationships, as well as audience and genre strategy.
Italiano steps up around three months after Sulinna Ong – previously Spotify‘s Global Head of Editorial & Curation, Music – exited the company to join U2’s management team.
Ong joined as a Management Partner alongside Irving and Jeffrey Azoff, having held Spotify‘s top editorial job since October 2021.
She was named a Billboard Women in Music Executive Honoree for four years running, from 2023 through 2026.
Where Ong‘s role had reported alongside Hadley‘s, Italiano‘s reports to him.
Hadley‘s promotion lands inside a Music organization that Spotify has been consolidating since 2024.
Global Head of Music Jeremy Erlich exited in October 2024, and his direct reports – Ong and Hadley among them – moved under David Kaefer, then the platform’s VP Music & Audiobook Business.
Hellman became SVP and Global Head of Music in October 2025, succeeding Kaefer, who left after seven years at the company.
Announcing that change in an internal memo obtained by MBW, Alex Norström – then Spotify‘s co-President and Chief Business Officer – wrote that “as we enter our next era of scale, we are centralizing all music functions under his leadership.”
Norström credited Kaefer in the same memo with leading “key music functions, including Editorial, Partnerships, and GTM.”
Norström became co-CEO alongside Gustav Söderström on January 1, 2026, when founder Daniel Ek moved to Executive Chairman.
The reshuffle also arrives as Spotify pushes its editorial team further into public view.
The company launched Playlist Notes and Editor Profiles on August 17, letting editors attach written context to tracks on playlists including Today’s Top Hits and RapCaviar, and giving the editors their own pages inside the app.
Hadley joined Spotify in March 2022 as Global Head of Artist Partnerships & Audience, arriving from CAA.
He had spent five years at The Windish Agency from 2011 before joining CAA in 2016, going on to become Global Co-Head of Hip-Hop & R&B.
He has described the artists he worked with at Windish as “very much left-of-center, but with a strong touring business.”
His clients at CAA included Beyoncé, A$AP Rocky, Jorja Smith, and Tems, and he also helped lead the agency’s diversity, equity, and inclusion work.
Spotify closed Q2 2026 with 777 million Monthly Active Users and 300 million Premium subscribers.Music Business Worldwide