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Akhila Shankar promoted to Director of Artist Services for India and South Asia at Believe


Believe has elevated Akhila Shankar to the role of Director of Artist Services for India and South Asia, with the executive continuing to lead TuneCore in the region alongside the expanded remit.

Based in Mumbai, Shankar will take on the new position immediately while continuing to oversee TuneCore India and South Asia. In her expanded remit, she will focus on artist development, deepening label and artist partnerships, and strengthening local capabilities, with an emphasis on building pathways for regional and international growth.

The appointment follows the departure of Shilpa Sharda, Believe India’s outgoing Director of Artist Services, who is leaving the company after 12 years “to pursue other interests,” the company said.

“Building TuneCore in India has been a deeply rewarding journey. It’s shaped how I think about the systems independent artists need for their growth and long-term career sustainability,” said Shankar.

“This next chapter with Believe feels like a natural extension of that work. I’m excited to build more connected pathways for artists, from discovery to development and support them more holistically as they grow. There’s a lot to be done, and I’m looking forward to what we can build together.”

“Building TuneCore in India has been a deeply rewarding journey. It’s shaped how I think about the systems independent artists need for their growth and long-term career sustainability.”

Akhila Shankar, BELIEVE

Vivek Raina, Managing Director of Believe India, added: “As the music landscape in India and South Asia evolves, our focus remains on building a robust ecosystem that supports artists at every stage of their journey.

“Akhila’s deep understanding of the market, combined with her track record of execution, makes her well positioned to lead this next phase of growth for our Artist Services business.”

Shankar was named Head of TuneCore, South Asia in January 2024, succeeding Heena Kriplani, who had built the distributor’s South Asia business from its launch in 2020. Before joining TuneCore, Shankar served as Director, International at subscription podcast and audio company Luminary, and previously spent more than seven years at Indian streaming platform JioSaavn, where she held roles including Director and Head of Brand, Comms and Marketing.

“As the music landscape in India and South Asia evolves, our focus remains on building a robust ecosystem that supports artists at every stage of their journey.”

Vivek Raina, Believe 

According to Believe, TuneCore’s independent releases in the region include music from artists such as Ritviz and Talwiinder, as well as projects with Famous Studios for Diljit Dosanjh.

The Believe Artist Services roster in the region, meanwhile, includes artists such as Sanju Rathod, Cheema Y and Gur Sidhu.

Believe has operated in India since 2013 and has expanded its footprint through a series of acquisitions, including its 2019 purchase of Venus Music — rebranded as Ishtar in 2021 — and its 2021 acquisition of a 76% stake in Tamil-language soundtrack label Think Music for €13 million (approximately $14.6 million at the time). In early 2024, Believe also acquired a Punjabi-language catalog from India-based White Hill Music, and in June 2025 the company launched Mahra Tora, an imprint dedicated to Haryanvi music.

In a June 2024 interview with MBW, Believe Founder and CEO Denis Ladegaillerie described the company as “the largest player” in India on local repertoire, and identified India as one of the Top 10 markets where Believe intends to retain a prominent position.Music Business Worldwide

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HOA liens have surged amid rising owner costs


Homeowners associations filed the equivalent of one lien every 90 seconds in 2025 against residents, with rising numbers hinting at growing consumer financial stress, which was particularly high in some regions of the country. 

Processing Content

In total, HOAs issued 284,933 liens in 2025, an 8.6% jump from the 262,446 delivered a year earlier, according to new research from real estate data firm Benutech. Considered a serious legal encumbrance, which could potentially lead to foreclosure, liens are filed against owners who fall behind on fees, fines or assessments, with amounts owed ranging between $200 and $1,000. 

Approximately 30 million units could be found in 373,000 HOAs last year, according to data from the Foundation for Community Association Research. LendingTree data also determined 2.6 million homeowners pay at least $600 a month in fees to their HOA. 

“The pace and volume of filings tracked in this data suggest a deepening financial strain on American homeowners,” Benutech said in the report.

“The fact that national filings jumped nearly 23,000 from 2024 to 2025 is a signal worth examining alongside other economic indicators.”

Lien volume by region and season

Diverging trends in the volume of filings appeared across seasons and states. Liens increased by the fastest pace in summer as well as December last year in comparison to the same months in 2024, suggesting that the likelihood of HOA enforcement is tied closely to budget cycles and assessment processes.  

Many HOAs issue annual assessment invoices at the start of the year, wait for delinquency to accumulate and file liens in the second half of the year, according to Benutech.

Filings accelerated the most in June from 20,737 to 25,092 year over year, up 21%. In December, liens increased 19.4% from 18,745 to 22,384. July had the largest overall monthly volume of 31,710.

Sun Belt states, in particular, experienced a noticeable surge in issued liens, with Florida, Texas, California, Georgia and Arizona accounting for more than half of 2025’s volume. 

Florida recorded 49,447 HOA liens, leading all states by a wide margin and making up 17.4% of the national total. The Sunshine State’s total grew 9.9% from 2024. 

Meanwhile, Louisiana reported the biggest spike in filings, with its total leaping 178.9% from 2,345 to 6,541 between 2024 and 2025. “Whether driven by a regulatory change, expanded HOA formation in suburban parishes, or post-hurricane financial pressure, the Louisiana surge represents an extraordinary shift that warrants close scrutiny,” Benutech said.

Liens across the Sun Belt are climbing today following a wave of new HOA construction this decade from developers seeking to meet demand from an influx of new residents. Homeowners in those states today, though, now face rising mortgage rates, insurance costs and HOA fees compared to a few years ago. 

At the same time, homeowner associations are also raising fees “substantially” in response to higher insurance and maintenance costs, according to Benutech. Several of the states recording higher lien volume lie in areas at high risk of natural disasters.

Of note elsewhere, Colorado posted 7,679 liens in 2025, a notable pickup of 74% from 4,413 a year earlier. Unlike other states, no seasonal patterns emerged, with numbers picking up throughout the year.  

On the other end of the spectrum, ten states saw a drop in HOA liens, with Wisconsin, Wyoming and New York recording the biggest decreases between 18% and 45%. 

What this means for the housing market

With primary mortgage liens the top priority among consumers in their hierarchy of debt repayment, the relatively low rates of delinquencies in 2025 compared to historical levels still suggest solid financial footing for most U.S. homeowners. But other indicators point to potential stress.

Benutech characterized HOA liens as a downstream indicator of financial distress among homeowners.

Economic researchers also look at delinquencies in other types of consumer debt for potential signs of trouble, and homeowners’ struggles to pay monthly bills may raise warning bells. 

Recent data from the Federal Reserve showed delinquencies in auto and credit card debt remaining at nearly the same year-over-year level but the researchers also noted growth in mortgage delinquencies in specific markets, highlighting the effect of regional trends on homeowners’ ability to pay. 



Rocket Lab Is Up Nearly 250% in a Year. Is This the 1 Space Stock You Buy on Every Dip and Never Sell?


Rocket Lab (RKLB +2.24%) has climbed from around $21 per share to more than $73 over the past year, or just shy of a 250% increase. For investors who caught the wave, it’s been an extraordinary ride. But the question now is whether Rocket Lab deserves a permanent spot in your portfolio — the kind of stock you buy on every dip and never sell.

Why Rocket Lab’s growth story is just getting started

The company posted record revenue of $602 million in 2025, up 38% year over year, with its backlog surging 73% to almost $1.9 billion. Take a look at its incredible sales growth over the past few years:

RKLB Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

The company is executing, flying 21 missions last year with a 100% success rate. That helped it land a $816 million contract from the Space Development Agency. And its space systems segment — satellites and other spacecraft — has grown to roughly 67% of revenue. Rocket Lab has positioned itself as an end-to-end company for all things space.

Its most important growth driver has yet to hit the market. Neutron, its upcoming medium-lift rocket, will allow Rocket Lab to directly compete with SpaceX’s bread-and-butter rocket, Falcon 9, at a price point that works out to roughly $15 million less per launch.

A digitized rocket taking flight.

Image source: Getty Images.

The risks that investors can’t afford to ignore

Of course, there are some real risks for investors. The stock run-up means that shares are now trading at about 66 times sales. That is pricey — especially considering that Rocket Lab is still operating in the red. The company lost nearly $200 million on its $602 million in sales. This is moving in the right direction, however — margins are improving — and the successful rollout of Neutron could meaningfully shift the calculus.

But that isn’t guaranteed. We’re talking about space flight here; a lot can go wrong. And if Neutron’s launch continues to be pushed off — or worse, the rocket proves to be less than reliable — Rocket Lab could be in serious trouble. Its $1.9 billion backlog might not convert to actual revenue.

Rocket Lab Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(2.24%) $1.86

Current Price

$84.79

The stock’s price tag means that a lot of future success has already been baked in. Still, the opportunity is huge. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is planning an IPO at a valuation of roughly $2 trillion. With a market capitalization of about $40 billion, Rocket Lab has a lot of room to grow into its valuation if it succeeds.

The bottom line

Rocket Lab is clearly a well-run company in an exciting market with a lot of opportunities ahead. Is it a buy-and-never-sell type of stock?

I think that depends on what kind of investor you are. If you have an appetite for risk and can stomach paying such a hefty premium, Rocket Lab absolutely could be. For most people, it’s too risky, and the stock is too expensive to become a sizable position in a portfolio.

Value versus Growth: What Drives the Value Premium


Linda H Chen, CFA, Wei Huang, and George J. Jiang

Many stocks shift into value or growth each year. The value premium is stronger among these “new” stocks, especially in contractions, tightening cycles, and high-uncertainty periods, driven largely by across-industry effects.

Save $200 on Trafalgar Travel Experiences with New Chase Offer


Trafalgar Chase Offer

Chase has just released a new Chase Offer for Trafalgar, offering a discount of up to 10% on all-inclusive travel experiences. We are seeing this pop up across various consumer and business cards, so most cardholders should be able to lock in some extra savings. Check your app or online account to see if you’re eligible. Let’s dive into the details below.

Offer Details

  • Earn $200 cash back on your Trafalgar purchase when you spend $2000 or more, including taxes and after any discounts.
  • Offer expires May 15, 2026.
  • Find Chase Offers here.

Trafalgar Chase Offer

Important Terms

  • Offer valid one time only.
  • Offer only valid on purchase made directly with the merchant.
  • Valid online only.
  • Not valid on purchase made using third-party services, delivery services, or a third-party payment account (e.g., buy now pay later).
  • Offer only valid on U.S. purchase.
  • It is possible that the merchant may split your purchase into multiple transactions.
  • Offer redemption awarded as statement credit on the first qualifying transaction amount. 

About Chase Offers

Chase Offers are available on Chase credit cards and debit cards. With these offers, you usually get cashback when you use your eligible Chase card to shop at a participating store. You can see your offers in the Chase app or in your account online. Here are a few things worth noting about these offers:

  • You can add the same offer to multiple cards, and you will receive multiple credits. Apps like Savewise and Cardpointers helps you add and manage these offers.
  • Chase Offers could be targeted to certain accounts, so not every offer will be available for everyone.
  • Credits will appear in your account in 7-14 business days.
  • Usually the same offers will also show up for US Bank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Regions Bank, Suntrust Bank, BBVA, BB&T, PNC, Columbia Bank and Beneficial Bank customers.

Guru’s Wrap-up

Trafalgar offers 750+ planned tours across 75+ countries, including land tours and river cruises, with many of the travel details covered for you. With this Trafalgar Chase Offer you need to spend $2,000 or more to get a $200 discount. That works out to a 10% discount. 

Check your accounts at Chase and other banks and add the offer on as many cards as you have it. You can find more Chase Offers here.

What China’s AI Agents Reveal About the Future of Commerce


When Meituan, China’s dominant lifestyle super app that combines services similar to DoorDash, Yelp, and Groupon into a single platform, launched its Xiaomei AI agent in late 2025, executives internally described it not as a chatbot but as an orchestrator plus execution agent. The point wasn’t convenience; it was delegation. A user could say, “Order my usual lunch, but deliver it 20 minutes later today,” and the agent would interpret intent, apply preferences, and complete the transaction, often with zero screen interaction.



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Gen Z is ‘Chinamaxxing’—and it’s less a love letter to Beijing than an indictment of America



The American century — a phrase coined by Fortune founder Henry Luce — had a soundtrack. It was Chuck Berry on the radio and Coca-Cola in the cooler, Levi’s jeans, and Marlboro billboards stretching across Europe. American culture didn’t conquer the world through military force—it did it through desirability. People wanted to be American. That aspiration was a kind of geopolitical superpower that no missile silo could replicate.

Now something is shifting, at least online. On TikTok, a growing wave of Gen Z creators—American first, then European, then global—are declaring themselves to be in their “Chinese era.” They’re drinking hot water. They’re eating hotpot. They’re wearing slippers indoors and marveling at the electric buzz of Chinese city life. They’re calling it “Chinamaxxing.” And increasingly, they mean it as more than a joke.

Welcome to the “Becoming Chinese” moment. Beneath its ironic, meme-friendly surface, the trend has ignited a genuine debate: Is this the first credible crack in American soft power dominance—or is it simply Gen Z doing what Gen Z does?

What they’re actually glamorizing

Spend five minutes in the Chinamaxxing corner of TikTok, and a clear aesthetic emerges. The videos cluster into a few recognizable genres. There’s “wellness and longevity mode” — warm water with fruit, herbal teas, gua sha, early bedtimes, gentle morning exercises, all framed as ancient secrets to soft living. There’s “uncle core,” in which creators affectionately mimic Chinese retirees: tracksuits, sidewalk squatting, communal street-side beers, a whole visual argument against American hustle culture.

And then there’s the infrastructure porn. Bullet trains gliding into spotless stations. Drone shows over neon-lit Shenzhen skylines. Chinese EVs. Walkable, dense neighborhoods. Drone food delivery. Contactless payment for a noodle soup that costs the equivalent of two dollars. These clips, often set to ambient or synthwave music, are edited to make American commuters watching on cracked phone screens feel something specific: that the future is being built somewhere else.

As tech commentator Afra Wang put it, “These young people have watched their physical reality remain frozen while China built entire cities. When you can’t build high-speed rail, but you can scroll through videos of Chinese infrastructure, of course, the future starts to look Chinese.”

The subtext of every “very Chinese era” video isn’t really about China. It’s about what young Americans feel they’ve been denied. Chinamaxxing romanticizes things that feel structurally out of reach at home — compact, affordable-looking apartments; public transit that works; streets safe to walk at night; multigenerational households as an antidote to loneliness; communal meals as an antidote to atomization. The comparison is implicit but unmissable: they have this, and we don’t.

A mirror, not a window

The numbers underneath the memes are brutal. A four-year U.S. public university costs $50,000 to $60,000 for in-state students; the equivalent in China runs $3,000 to $5,000 for the whole degree. American households spend roughly $5,177 a year on healthcare, with medical debt touching nearly half of all adults. China’s subsidized system costs somewhere between $350 and $565 annually. Housing eats 25% to 35% of an American paycheck. In China, rent in major cities often runs 60% to 70% lower. 

Gen Z Americans now carry an average of $94,000 in student-loan debt, and the psychological weight of that number is fueling what Fortune‘s Jacqueline Munis has called “disillusionomics” — a generational rejection of traditional financial prudence rooted in the belief that the old rules no longer apply. One-third of Gen Z says they believe they’ll never own a home. Many are planning to forgo children. Youth unemployment hit 10.8% last year against a 4.3% national average. 

This is the context in which “becoming Chinese” lands. It isn’t that Gen Z has carefully studied comparative political economy and chosen Beijing. It’s that they were raised on a promise — get the degree, get the job, get the house, get the healthcare — that increasingly feels like a lie. American higher education, once the most reliable on-ramp to the middle class, now generates crippling debt in exchange for credentials that pay less in real terms than they did for their parents. Tuition at U.S. public universities has increased 153.8% since the early 1980s in inflation-adjusted terms, growing 65% faster than currency inflation and 35% faster than wages. The institution, sold as the gateway to prosperity, has become its single largest private obstacle.

Slate‘s Nitish Pahwa captured the emotional logic cleanly: “You told us we couldn’t have a high-speed railroad and universal health care, and it turns out they have it across the street! I’m going to live at their house now!” It is, as he described it, a petulant-toddler reaction to a broken promise — and one that Western institutions have given Gen Z ample grounds to throw.

A generation assembling itself

Reid Litman, a consulting director at Ogilvy who studies Gen Z behavior, told Fortune he doesn’t read Chinamaxxing as a wholesale rejection of American culture. “It’s not Western Gen Z turning against American culture or choosing China instead,” he said. “It’s something much more native to how this generation builds identity and uses the internet.”

His point cuts to the core of what makes this different from anything a Cold War-era analyst would recognize. Gen Z, Litman argued, doesn’t treat identity as fixed or inherited — it’s assembled. “Pieces are borrowed, remixed, and layered over time, the same way they approach music, fashion, or language. When someone says they’re in their ‘very Chinese era,’ it’s not a geopolitical statement. It’s a signal of a phase — closer to trying something on than switching sides.”

That framing matters. But it doesn’t defuse the broader signal. The content gaining traction — tea rituals, slow routines, dense and futuristic cities, food culture that feels abundant and communal — maps precisely onto what young people say is missing from their own lives. “China becomes less of a destination,” Litman said, “and more of a canvas to project those desires.” A sense of wellness and calm. A feeling of prosperity. An everyday beauty that American strip-mall culture conspicuously fails to provide.

The meme propaganda couldn’t buy

However you read the motivation, the cultural moment is real — and its origins are instructive. The trend traces to 2025, when American gaming streamer IShowSpeed toured China and broadcast his genuine awe at its technological energy to millions of followers. Chinese-American TikToker Sherry Zhu amplified it with sardonic tutorials on “how to become Chinese” that went viral in 2025, some of which drew millions of views. The great migration of U.S. users to China’s Xiaohongshu, or RedNote, in early 2025 — triggered by the threatened TikTok ban — put Americans and Chinese netizens in direct contact at unprecedented scale, and the cross-pollination accelerated from there.

Shaoyu Yuan, a scholar who studies Chinese soft power, told NPR the trend operates on two tracks at once: one that “weakens American narrative authority by highlighting content that highlights U.S. dysfunction,” and another that “makes China look more attractive.” The Week The dysfunction track, crucially, writes itself. Nobody needs Beijing to fabricate footage of American potholes, ER bills, or decaying Amtrak cars.

Chinese officialdom has noticed. The Chinese ambassador to the U.S. has cited the trend publicly while pushing for expanded tourist visas. State outlet Global Times has begun amplifying it. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian welcomed the international interest, saying it reflected a broader understanding of Chinese culture beyond “traditional symbols, such as the Great Wall, kung fu, pandas, and Chinese cuisine.” But this is Beijing’s central dilemma — and the most important Cold War lesson it should heed. State embrace is the soft power killer. What resonates as a genuine cultural moment curdles quickly into propaganda the moment party fingerprints appear.

Litman’s analysis suggests the Chinese government may not need to act at all. “There’s little to suggest a top-down push driving this specific behavior,” he said. “What’s more evident is a shift in tone — compared to the COVID era, the posture now feels more curious and less distant.”

The turbulent 2020s as an accelerant

Henry Luce, it’s worth remembering, was a staunch Republican and a massive proponent of 20th-century American internationalism, capitalism, and anti-communism — a worldview whose ultimate vindication was the 1989 fall of the Iron Curtain. American soft power during the Cold War was paradoxically most effective precisely when it felt least engineered. Hollywood produced anti-communist films at Washington’s quiet urging, but what global audiences absorbed was aspiration: big cars, wide suburbs, the sense that anything was possible. The suburban supermarket may have actually won the Cold War — Boris Yeltsin famously recalled the physical pain of walking through a Houston grocery store in 1989 and seeing its shelves stocked.

Consumer culture was itself ideological. As historian Eric Foner has written, it demonstrated the superiority of the American way of life to communism and effectively redefined the nation’s mission as the export of freedom itself. Blue jeans smuggled behind the Iron Curtain weren’t just denim — they were a vote against the system.

The unsettling symmetry of the current moment is that the infrastructure videos and hot-water memes are playing the same role in reverse. Bullet-train footage isn’t just rail — it’s a vote. And the vote is being cast by a generation that has no Cold War precedent for its view of China. New Pew Research data shows American adults under 34 view China far more favorably than those over 50. The 2020s have been a decade of compounding American institutional failure — a pandemic, political rupture, an affordability crisis, student loan servicers treated as adversaries, a healthcare system that bankrupts the sick, and a growing sense that the system is not working as advertised. Chinese modernity, filtered through a TikTok feed, offers an implicit counter-narrative: cities that work, infrastructure that impresses, a culture that feels rooted and forward-moving simultaneously.

The contrast is oversimplified, and critics are right to say so. Wages in China are significantly lower than in the U.S.; youth unemployment is a serious problem there; workplace demands can be punishing. The videos don’t show any of that. But the videos don’t have to. Their power lies in the specific comparison they invite — not “is China better in every way,” but “why does an ordinary life there appear to include things an ordinary life here no longer does.”

Litman acknowledges the nuance. “It’s never fully sincere or fully ironic,” he said of the trend’s Gen Z texture. “It carries humor, but also real curiosity — bits of truth, bits of silliness, and a layer of escapism holding it all together.” The tension between genuine interest and aesthetic shorthand isn’t a flaw of the trend. It’s how Gen Z operates — comfortable holding contradictions without resolving them.

The bigger picture

For Chinese Americans who grew up mocked for their food, their customs, their Chinese-ness, the trend carries its own complicated charge — a 5,000-year-old civilization reduced to a lifestyle aesthetic, now embraced on the same platforms where it was once invisible. Some in the diaspora have pushed back sharply, calling it “Orientalism by any other name.” The critique is fair. It also doesn’t cancel out what the trend signals.

Litman’s final word is probably the right one for calibration. “This kind of exploration is only possible because of American culture,” he said. “It’s more about play and expressing desires than a true turning away.” Gen Z is using global culture as a palette, and right now, China is the color they’re reaching for.

But the Cold War analogy cuts in both directions. American culture won the ideological struggle of the twentieth century not because Washington planned it perfectly, but because it generated something the other side couldn’t manufacture: a genuine, bottom-up, organic want. The “Becoming Chinese” trend, for all its irony and imprecision, is producing exactly that kind of signal — uncoerced, youth-driven, and spreading on its own momentum.

The American century was built on the world’s desire to be American, a desire so powerful that it didn’t require irony or caveats. The question the turbulent 2020s is forcing is a simpler and more unsettling one: what happens when the generation that was supposed to inherit the American promise looks around at their student loans, their rent, their medical bills, and their crumbling train stations — and decides they’d rather be something else?

The War Has Changed the Housing Market


The Iran War is already changing the housing market. Home sales have slowed, mortgage rates jumped back up, a reversal in crucial housing affordability is well underway—and we’re not done yet. Oil prices are causing interest rates to fly upward, and guess what? Gas prices might not go down for another year. Is this the nail in the coffin for the return to a healthy housing market?

We’re getting into it all in April 2025’s housing market update.

The implications of the Iran War are massive, and we’re feeling it right now. Homebuyers got a glimpse of hope when rates fell below 6% a couple of months ago. Now, we’re back up to the mid-6s. But with less competition in the market, buyers have greater opportunities. Real estate investors, especially those with cash on hand, may have even more time to take advantage. Dave shares the five things investors must do to get a good deal in this market.

But will the housing market crash? Your favorite influencer on TikTok is telling you yes, but what does Dave say? If you want proof that a housing crash will/won’t happen, Dave is showing you exactly what’s happening in the market today and whether it could lead to a home price crash, real estate selloff, or something different altogether.

Dave Meyer:
How is the war in Iran affecting the housing market? I’ve been saying for years that a black swan event can always dramatically shift real estate dynamics. Well, here it is. In the last month, the war has reshaped the trajectory of mortgage rates, inflation, consumer sentiment, and more. And of course, all of these factors will impact home values and spoiler alert, the impact is probably not good. But that doesn’t mean you can’t invest right now. In fact, some of the best times to build your portfolio are when all of the headlines about housing are negative. You just need to adjust your buy box for a changing market. You’re probably going to see better properties become available. Sellers will even be more willing to negotiate and other buyers are probably going to be scared off. And in today’s April 2026 housing market update, I’ll explain how you should be shifting your strategy to take advantage of these shifting market conditions.
Hey, what’s going on everyone? It’s Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets, housing market analyst, real estate investor of 16 years now. Today in the show, we’re going to talk a little bit more about current events than we normally do, and we’re going to specifically be focusing on how the war in Iran is impacting the housing market. So let me just get to the point. The war in Iran is likely going to have negative implications for the housing market. Now, I’m not saying a crash and we’ll talk about that in a minute, but if you look at what has happened in just the last month, I think we are going to see slower home sales. We’re going to see mortgage rates up. We’ve already seen them go up half a point, and I think they’re going to stay elevated. And I think we’re probably likely going to see reverses in affordability and reverses in demand.
Now, that does not mean that there’s a disaster. And actually, as we’re going to talk about towards the end of this episode, that could spell really good buying opportunities for real estate investors, but I think we need to actually just break down how this works because that’s going to help you understand where the opportunities lie and where the risks lie in this housing market because there are going to be both. In short, the war is going to push up inflation. And actually, as of today, April 10th, when we’re recording this, we just saw the first inflation print since the war started, and it wasn’t a good one. It was ugly. We saw the CPI, the consumer price index, go up from 2.4% to 3.3% in just a single month. I do believe that inflation’s going to stay higher than it was before the war for the foreseeable future.
I’ll explain that in a minute, but let’s just talk about why inflation hurts and why I think it’s so important to the housing market. First and foremost, it impacts consumer spending. If people are getting stretched by paying more at the gas pump, they have less money to spend other places. The second thing is input cost for housing and other goods. We’ve already seen in the last year, the price of construction on the average price home has gone up between 10,000 and $17,000 per home. Depending on who you ask, that’s probably going to go up more in the near future because oil prices are up. That means it’s not just gas, right? When oil prices go up, you also see everything that goes on a ship go up. They use diesel. That’s oil. So if you are importing appliances from China, you are importing timber, copper, aluminum, whatever it is, those prices are likely to go up with oil prices as well.
That’s going to make input costs for housing go up as well. Construction becomes more expensive. But the really big one, the big thing that inflation impacts more than anything when it comes to the housing market is mortgage rates. And this is why over just the last month we have seen mortgage rates after dipping so briefly, we got it. We touched it. We touched 5.99 for the average mortgage rate at some point in February. Now they’re back up to about 6.3, 6.5. They’re hovering in that range the last couple of days. Because even before this inflation print came out on April 10th, everyone knew inflation was going up. You could see it in the oil prices. Oil is such a big part of the economy that seeing that gas prices went up more than 50% since before the war started, of course inflation was going to go up.
So that’s why mortgage rates have gone up. Now, before we go on, I just want to be clear that when I say inflation is high and getting higher and I think it’s going to stay bad for a while, I’m not talking 9%. We’re not talking about COVID 2022 levels where they were printing money and there was supply shock and there was all that going on. Right now I’m saying we were getting close to the Fed’s target of 2%. We’re moving in the wrong direction. Could inflation stay in the three to 5% range for the next year? I think so. I think that is unfortunately something that we are going to have to contend with. So yeah, inflation is not looking great. And I just want to call out, we’ve only had one print for the Consumer Price Index, which is the one that makes most of the media and that was not good.
But if you look at other measures of inflation, they’re also not good and maybe even arguably worse. If you look at the PCE, which is actually what the Fed looks at, we’ve actually seen three consecutive months of much higher inflation. That was even before the war. We were seeing 0.4% monthly growth three months in a row right now. If you annualize that, that means that measure could get up to 4.8%, even just staying the way it is right now. This is why I’m saying, could inflation go back to 3% to 5%? Yeah, I mean, there’s evidence of that. And this just sucks, right? It sucks for everyone in America, for you, for me, for everyone. But specifically, when we talk about the housing market, it’s going to keep mortgage rates higher. That is the unfortunate news for anyone who’s working in the housing industry because we talk about this a lot, but let’s just review how mortgage rates actually work.
It is not the Fed. It is not the federal funds rate. That is one factor in mortgage rates. But the real thing, the closest correlation to mortgage rates are yields on 10-year US treasuries. Treasuries are bonds. It’s basically how the US government funds all of the debt that we have. $39 trillion in debt that is funded by issuing bonds, treasuries. And the yield is basically the interest rate that the government pays investors, people who lend money to the US government. And this number, bond yields, they fluctuate a lot based on all sorts of complicated economic activity, but inflation is one of, if not the biggest variable in bond yields. I’m not going to get into all the details today, but what you need to know is that mortgage rates and bond yields super highly correlated. And when inflation goes up, bond yields go up. This is just one of the ways that the economy works.
And as long as we have higher inflation, we’re going to have upward pressure on mortgage rates. This is why they’ve gone from six to 6.3, 6.5 over the last couple of weeks. And it’s why I personally think that we’re not getting back towards six, at least in the next couple of weeks and maybe for months or more. And I should mention, I am not the only one who sees this. We actually do this survey at BiggerPockets. It’s called the BiggerPockets Investor Pulse, where we just basically take the temperature of residential, retail, real estate investors, people like you and me and what people are thinking. And the amount of people who are expecting lower mortgage rates has basically just plummeted. In Q1, so in the first couple of months, when we did this survey, I think it was back in January, about 30% of people were saying that lower mortgage rates were going to be a big opportunity this year.
That’s dropped to about 12%. When we did the pulse last time, the median, what most bigger pockets community members were expecting were mortgage rates to be somewhere between 5.5 and 5.99%. Now that has gone up to six to 6.5% with a huge surge in people actually expecting them to go up even higher. About 27% think that this is going to go higher up to six and a half, maybe even up to 7%. So people not particularly excited about where mortgage rates are going. So that’s my read of the situation. Inflation is up, probably going to stay elevated. Again, not 2022 levels, but elevated from where we have been the last couple of years. I think mortgage rates are going to stay high, and this is going to impact the housing market. How it’s going to impact the housing market is something we got to get into, but first we’re going to take a quick break.
We’ll be right back. As a host, the last thing I want to do or have time for is play accountant and banker. But that’s what I was doing every weekend, flipping between a bunch of apps, bank statements, and receipts, trying to sort it all out by property and figure out if I was actually making money. Then I found Baselane and it takes all of that off my plate. It’s BiggerPockets official banking platform that automatically sorts my transactions, matches receipts, and shows me my cashflow for every property. My tax prep is done and my weekends are mine again. Plus, I’m saving a ton of money on banking fees and apps I don’t need anymore. Get a $100 bonus when you sign up today at baselane.com/bp. BiggerPockets Pro members also get a free upgrade to Baseline Smart. It’s packed with advanced automations and features to save you even more time.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m Dave Meyer, talking about the realities of how the war in Iran is likely to impact the housing market. We’ve already talked about the stuff that we know. Inflation has gone up. I personally think it’s likely to stay elevated for the foreseeable future. Again, not 2022 levels, but higher than where we were. And I think mortgage rates are going to stay in the mid sixes. They could even go up from here depending on what happens next. But even knowing what we know now about inflation, about mortgage rates, about recent trends in the housing market in general, we can start to project what is likely to happen in the housing market. And the main thing I think that we are going to see is a slower housing market. Now, if you’re thinking, man, the housing market is already really slow.
Yeah, it is. We had one of the slowest prints ever on record in January, 3.9 million annualized existing home sales. That is super low. It could go slower. Now, there’s this whole thing about seasonally adjusting it, but I think we are going to see a really reluctant market. When there are times of uncertainty, and although I feel like I’ve said this every year for the last six years that uncertainty is high, man, uncertainty is really high right now where we don’t know what’s going to happen with the war. We don’t know what’s going to happen with AI. We don’t know what’s happening with all of these other things in the economy. And I think that is going to slow down buyer behavior in the housing market. You see this data across the board. People just don’t make these kinds of decisions, but specifically, residential real estate investors are not feeling very good about it.
In our survey that we did in April, BiggerPockets members, we asked, “What impact do you expect the Iran war to have on the real estate market in the next three months?” And basically no one. Less than 5% of people combined said positive or very positive. About 30% were neutral. Over 50% said it’s going to have a negative impact and 15% said a very negative impact. So just saying investors tend to be on the more optimistic side of housing market participants and they’re all pretty negative. So you got to imagine how home buyers are feeling in this market as well. And this isn’t just psychological. The psychological part is important, but affordability is going to get lower. We started to see nine months in a row up until February, we saw improved affordability because mortgage rates were starting to come down. Prices were flattening out, but we’re probably going to reverse those gains because mortgage payments are now going up.
And if you combine uncertainty with less affordability, how do you get more demand? Where are the home buyers going to come from in that market where people are uncertain, they’re worried and things are more expensive? I just can’t see it. I think we’re not going to see a lot of demand. Now, again, I am not saying there was going to be a crash. And in fact, back in October when I made my predictions, I already thought prices were going down this year. Just as a reminder, I said, I think we’ll get national home prices somewhere between negative 4% and plus 2%. And I still think that range is probably close to right, maybe towards the lower end of that. If you ask me today, I don’t think we’re seeing positive home price growth. I’d say maybe negative two, maybe negative 3%, something like that. And that’s not that different from what I was projecting six months ago, even though the war is happening.
And I know that this sounds scary, right? No one in this industry likes to see home prices go down, but I do want to call out, it has pros and cons. There are trade-offs to this kinds of market. And as a savvy investor, there are things that actually benefit you about this kind of market. The cons we know, right? Appreciation is going to be slow, right? If you have an existing portfolio, some of your properties could and likely will go down in potential value, but let’s just call out that that’s potential value, right? We’re talking about a paper loss. If you don’t sell it, you don’t actually lose anything. And most people, if you’ve owned your portfolio for a while, the values of those properties have gone crazy. So it’s not like you’re actually losing money. You might have just made a little bit less money, if you know what I mean, right?
So those are the obvious downsides of this, but the pros are there too, because this does mean that there will be better deals, right? Because even if supply comes down a little bit, there are going to be more motivated sellers in this kind of market. I feel very confident about that. There is going to be less competition in this market, right? And so even if inventory is not skyrocketing, the number of properties that are going to sit on the market for a long time, they’re going to go up. I feel very strongly that days on market are going to go up. You’re going to have less competition. And that means that if you are a savvy investor and you adapt to these market conditions, you’re going to find better deals than have been available in several years. That is really good news if you are trying to build a portfolio.
So don’t mistake what I’m saying about the housing market to mean that you shouldn’t be buying. You can buy in any market, but it does mean you need to be careful. You need to follow the advice I’ve honestly been giving for at least two years now on the show about investing in a correction. And just as a reminder, what you got to do to buy in this kind of market is number one, buy under market comps. If prices are going to go down two, three, 5% this year, maybe not, but if you’re worried about that, you have to buy something seven, eight, 10% under market comps. And you actually can do that because you have negotiating leverage, because there’s going to be motivated sellers, because things are going to be sitting on the market longer. That doesn’t mean everyone’s going to accept your deals, but if you’re patient about this and diligent about it, you will be able to do that.
So that’s rule number one. Rule number two, don’t buy anything that doesn’t cash flow. Just don’t. In this kind of market, you need to be defensive. Cashflow is a defensive mechanism. You absolutely should be doing that. Number three, get fixed rate debt. I know it’s higher. Mortgage rates are higher. They could go up more. We don’t know. We just saw that. Literally everyone other than me and some other people, but most people have been saying mortgage rates are going to go down. Mortgage rates are going to go down. But trying to tell you that that might not happen and look what happened, right? Mortgage rates have gone back up. Thankfully, they’re not at 8% again, but it just proves that no one really knows what’s going to happen with mortgage rate. Fixed rate debt on a property that cash flows that you buy under market comps, that works in any market.
Other two things to think about, protecting against downside, right? You don’t want to buy anything super risky in this market, buy a great asset in a great location. That is really important right now. Don’t buy in the edge of town. Don’t buy something that isn’t going to have high rental demand. Even if it has some upside, protect against your downside first, then you focus on upsides. Once you found a deal that you feel is rock solid and is not going to be risky in this kind of market, then you look for the upsides that we always talk about in the upside era. This is stuff like zoning upside, rent growth potential, being in the path of progress, doing value add. Those things all work. So even though I really believe that some of the dynamics of the housing market are going to change by what’s going on with the war in Iran and rising inflation, the formula for what you should be doing right now hasn’t changed.
That is still the formula for what works. And if you’re nervous about the housing market, all you got to do to keep buying is adjust your own expectations, how much under market comps you’re willing to buy. If you’re worried about what’s going on, maybe you only buy something 10% under market comps or 15% under market comps. Means you’re going to have to do a lot more outreach, probably going to have to make more offers, but if that’s what makes you comfortable, fine. Do it. You’ll be able to get good deals. You’ll get cashflow and you’ll enjoy the many other benefits like amortization and tax benefits, all that that you get from real estate, but you can protect yourself against the one risk that is really out there, which is prices going down modestly in the next year. Now, I know people are probably thinking to themselves and asking the question, doesn’t inflation push up housing prices?
You’ve probably heard this. Isn’t real estate a great inflation hedge? There is actually truth to that. If you measure this like a nerd like I do, the correlation between housing prices inflation is really high, but there is actually a lot of nuance to this. It is not as simple as saying when there is inflation, housing prices go up, right? We’ve seen inflation above the Fed target for the last couple of years. Real home prices are down for the last couple of years. And that is because there’s actually two different types of inflation. There is something called demand pull and there’s something called supply push. And what happens with the housing market really depends on the type of inflation that there is. So demand pull is kind of the inflation that most people are used to. It’s basically when the market runs too hot, right? People describe this forum as inflation as too much money, chasing too few goods.
This is an example of what happened during COVID, right? People were flush with cash. They were getting stimulus checks. We were printing tons of money. And what happens when you print more money is people have money to spend and they want to go and spend it. But if there is not a proportionate increase in the amount of stuff to buy, prices go up, right? I think cars were a really good example of this during COVID, used cars. People had a ton of money. They were going out and buying stuff, but there weren’t all of a sudden more used cars to go buy, so people bid up the prices of that. This is what happened in the housing market during COVID, right? People had a lot of money. Mortgage rates were low. That increases demand. This is why it’s called demand pull, and the demand pulls prices up.
Now there’s another kind of inflation called supply push inflation. And this comes when the input cost to build and make stuff goes up. And unlike demand pull, which is associated with a hot market, supply push is associated with a slower market. This is when the cost to make a car, the cost to build a house, the cost to ship things from one country to another goes up. And because the producers and the infrastructure is more expensive, that stuff gets passed along to consumers, but it’s not because there’s more demand. And so this kind of inflation is often associated with slower economy, maybe even a recession, and slower real estate prices. And this is what we’re at risk of today. I want to be clear that when we look at the two types of inflation and the inflation we’re seeing right now, we are seeing supply push inflation between tariffs, between the war of Iran, it is getting more expensive to make stuff.
And that is getting passed on to US consumers, which slows down demand. Not just for cars, it slows down demand for everything, including housing. If people can’t afford housing, it’s at a 40-year low, right? If they’re already stretched for affordability in the housing market, and then other things in the economy start to get more expensive, they’re not going to all of a sudden bid up the price of housing.That’s why this kind of inflation is not associated with real estate prices going up. Now, one more thing I just want to mention, because I’m not trying to scare you all. I just want to be real with you about what I see in the market. My job here is not to rah-rah everything about the housing market. I want to explain to you what is happening, how to navigate risks, how to spot opportunities. There is a risk of what is called stagflation that is going on right now.
Now, people throw out that word a lot. I think it’s a lot of people who want to generate fear and clicks, and they use this word stagflation because it’s scary. And stagflation is scary. It’s not good. What it is, to the definition, is when you have a combination of inflation and a recession at the same time. Now, hopefully you can see why that’s bad, because it means that people might be losing their jobs, their incomes might be going down, and at the same time, prices are going up. That’s a nightmare for an economy. And there are degrees of stagflation, right? We saw this in the 70s in the United States and it got really bad. And I’m not saying we’re at risk of really bad stagflation, but is there a chance that inflation goes up at the same time unemployment is going up? Yeah, we’re seeing that.
We had one good print in March, but unemployment is going up. Actually, last month, personal incomes went down 1%, right? At the same time, we just saw three different measures of inflation all go up. So this is something that we all need to keep an eye on because stagflation has really bad impacts on the entire economy and could really damage the housing market. So we’re not there yet, but it’s something that we’re going to talk about in these updates every single month going forward, because if it gets worse, then we need to start talking about how to prepare and protect yourself against that risk because that can be dangerous. But for now, what we’re likely seeing is increasing inflation, higher mortgage rates, a slower housing market. And for me, the formula for what you should be buying hasn’t really changed. Now, we do have to take a quick break, but after the break, I want to talk about a crash.
We talk about this every month because everyone in the media is talking about a housing market crash, but I want to address this head on. Will the war in Iran create a crash? We’re going to go through the data step by step and actually see what the risks are. And we’ll also talk about some opportunities that are emerging in the market. Stay with us. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m Dave Meyer. This is our April 2026 housing market update. So far on the show, we’ve talked about the war in Iran, how it’s pushing up inflation, taking mortgage rates up with it, and what that could mean for the housing market. And I’ve said this probably will put downward pressure on housing prices. It will probably put downward pressure on transaction volume, but will it turn into a crash? I’ve alluded to this, but I want to just share with you some evidence right now. No, I do not think it will turn into a crash, at least as of now. I’ll give it to you straight. The war isn’t good for real estate, but there are many structural reasons a crash remains unlikely. I talked about it a little bit before, but the floor of replacement cost. Inflation pushing up the cost to replace a home puts a floor on how far home prices are likely to fall.
Number two, people have massive homeowner equity. It’s at an all time high. People are not at risk of being underwater, of short sales, of any sort of foreclosure crisis. I know people love to say that foreclosures are spiking and going through the roof. That is not true. If you compare delinquency rates, if you compare foreclosure rates now to before the pandemic, they are lower. Yes, they have gone up from the artificially low era of COVID, but they are lower. So that is an important thing to remember. I say this every month on the show when we do this risk report, but if there was going to be a housing market crash, we would see it in the delinquency data. We would see spiking inventory, we would see spiking new listings, right? Supply would be going up. We would see spiking days on market, and at the same time, we would see rising delinquencies.
Those are the things we know predict a housing market crash. So let’s just look at them, right? Let’s look at inventory. People love to say inventory is going crazy. That’s why the housing market’s going to crash. How much is inventory up year over year, do you think? From last year to this year, according to Redfin, it is down. It’s down 2% year over year, right? So yes, is it up above where it was during COVID? Yes, but it is not going crazy. This is what happens in a housing market correction. Demand goes down. Talked about that before, right? Supply follows. That is what normally happens because if there are no buyers, sellers aren’t eager to list their home for sale. And when you see both demand and supply go down at the same time, what happens? Prices, they can move a little bit, but they stay relatively flat like they have.
But transaction volume is what goes down. Volume of transactions, how many homes are selling and trading goes down. Again, that’s what we have seen and that’s what I think will probably accelerate. I do think home prices are going to go down a little bit, but main impact of this is I think we’re going to have very low transaction volume. Now, could this change? Could inventory be spiking soon? Sure. But we would probably see that in new listing data. This inventory is how many homes are for sale at any given point. New listings are how many people decide to sell their home that month. That is up year over year, 2%, hardly a crash situation. Everyone’s out there screaming, all these crash bros screaming, “Oh my God, new listings are up. Inventory’s up.” Not really. It’s basically the same as last year. Inventory down 2%, new listings up 2%.
It’s basically flat. Basically, nothing has happened there. So this is one of the reasons why I don’t think we are going to see a crash. On top of that, delinquency rates, still below 4%. They went down from February to March. They’re still up where they were over COVID, just like a lot of these things because they were artificially low. But when you look at the big picture, is the housing market going to crash? It remains unlikely. Now, if we start to see stagflation, we’ll have to talk about that, but I still don’t even think there’s a high chance of a housing market crash if stagflation picks up. But if we see unemployment go to 8%, sure, there’s a risk of a crash, but we’re at 4.3% right now. And these things move slowly. It’s not likely we’re going to go from 4.3 to 7% in the next couple of months.
If we start to see seven, eight, nine, 10% unemployment, sure, there is risk of a housing market crash, but we are not there. There is no evidence that that’s happening. Unemployment actually fell last month. I think everyone is afraid of AI, myself included, but we just haven’t really seen unemployment spike in the way that a lot of people have predicted. And so as of right now, the risk of a crash remains relatively low. I think the slow, frustrating, annoying market that we’ve been in for a while is just what’s going to be here for the foreseeable future. So that’s my prediction. And what that means is the upside playbook that we’ve talked about, what you got to do in this great stall is still true. Follow the principles that we’ve been talking about buying. Make sure you cash flow. Buy under market comps. Generally speaking, be risk off.
Don’t take a ton of risk if you don’t have to in this kind of market, but find upsides and negotiate because buying opportunities are there. We are entering a buyer’s market in a correction, you go into a buyer’s market. That means you have the power. Don’t go buy anything. There’s a lot of trash out there. There’s absolute junk. I get sent it every day. A lot of it is junk, but the good deals are starting to come. I actually think cash flow is going to start getting better because if prices go down a little bit, but rents don’t go down, which is normally what happens during a housing correction, cashflow prospects are going to get a little better. Not all of a sudden going to be amazing, don’t get me wrong, but it is going to get better. The other thing I want to call out is everything that I have said What in the show so far is a national basis.
I’ve been talking about the national housing market. You got to pay very close attention what’s going on in your local market. I know not everyone’s going to do this, but I implore you. Please, if you’re going to go out and buy, do yourself a favor. Go on Redfin, go on Zillow, look up what inventory are in your current market, look up what new listings are in your current market and look up what days on market are. Just Google Redfin Data Center, that’s all you need to do. It’s a free tool. It’s super easy to use. Go look this up for yourself. Because if inventory and new listings are up, if days on market are up in your area, means prices are probably going to go down a little bit. But that also means they’re going to be more motivated sellers and your ability to negotiate is up.
So if you’re in that kind of market, that’s where you have to be very disciplined. You have to say, “Hey, this property’s on the market for 400 grand. I can only pay 330 for it. ” Make that offer. Nine out of 10 of people are going to reject that. But one of them might call you three or four months from now and say, “You know what? You’re right. 330 is the best that I can get. ” And they might sell it to you. That’s what you got to do in a correcting market. Now, some markets, if you’re in the Northeast, if you’re in the Midwest, go check those inventory numbers, go check the days on market numbers. If in your market, inventory’s still low, new listings are still low, you’re not going to be able to do that. Prices might still go up this year.
1%, 2%, 3%. I don’t think we’re seeing any double digit increases anywhere in the US this year, maybe 5% in the top performing markets, but they’re going to be slow. But because there are going to be buyers in those markets, I mean, you could still try, but you’re going to have to be a little bit more realistic. Maybe offer 380 instead of 400. Maybe you pay asking price. Sometimes you’re just going to pay asking price. If the numbers still work, if you underwrite your deals to the same principles that I just still talked about, there’s no reason you shouldn’t buy. If you follow the advice that Henry and I give you all every single week on this show, you can still buy. The point is, the market’s going to be slow. Use that to your advantage. Be aggressive about negotiating. While at the same time, be aware, be cognizant of the risks that the new emerging reality of the housing market present to us.
Mitigate those risks because you can. That’s the whole point of the show. Identifying the risks as we have today are the first step in mitigating the risks. You can still invest if you mitigate the risks and understanding the unfortunate reality. I don’t like this stuff, but the unfortunate reality is that with mortgage rates going up, with inflation going up, the market’s going to be slow. Appreciation’s going to be slow. And so if you acknowledge that, if you understand that, if you mitigate those risks, and at the same time, you take the leverage that the market is giving you in negotiations, that means you can go out and find good deals. Maybe the best deals, maybe some of the best inventory for sale that we’ve seen in several years. So that’s the lesson today. Understand the risk, but take advantage of the opportunity. That’s the message for April 2026.
And that is our episode for today. Thank you all so much for watching this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. We’ll see you next time. All

 

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