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Understanding the mathematics of loss must ultimately translate into portfolio construction. Not all defensive assets offer the same quality of protection. Conflating perceived safety with genuine downside resilience is a costly mistake. US Treasuries, for example, carry structural, battle-tested protection: deep liquidity, government backing, and a proven track record of holding value during equity drawdowns.
Private credit, by contrast, may offer attractive yields but can mask risk through illiquidity and limited price transparency. In periods of severe stress, it may not reprice in the same way as public markets. Instead, liquidity can become constrained.
This is a critical distinction. Truly asset-backed investments, where hard collateral such as real property, equipment, or receivables underpins value, provide a more concrete and legally enforceable floor on recovery. Cash flow projections alone are not collateral.
*Wealthspring Capital LLC (WSC) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Information presented in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The United States has crossed a grim threshold: the national debt now exceeds the size of the entire American economy. As of March 31, debt held by the public stood at $31.27 trillion, while nominal GDP over the prior 12-month period was an estimated $31.22 trillion — pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 100.2%, according to a press release issued Thursday by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), based on new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Total gross national debt — including intragovernmental obligations — has already surpassed $39 trillion, a figure that amounts to roughly $114,000 per American or $289,000 per household, according to the Senate Joint Economic Committee’s monthly debt update as of April 3, 2026.
“It’s happened — the national debt is now larger than the U.S. economy, about twice the historic average,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB. “We’ve heard plenty of alarm bells in the past few years about our fiscal path, but this one rings especially loudly. The real question is whether or not our leaders in Washington will listen.”
Record that shouldn’t be broken
The 100% milestone puts the U.S. on a collision course with its all-time high: the 106% debt-to-GDP ratio reached in 1946, in the immediate aftermath of World War II. The difference, MacGuineas argued, is stark. That peak was the result of financing the largest military mobilization in American history. Today’s debt, she said, “isn’t borne from a seismic global conflict, but rather a total bipartisan abdication of making hard choices.”
The Congressional Budget Office warned in February that, under current trajectories, debt held by the public will rise to 108% of GDP by 2030 — surpassing the postwar record — and balloon to 120% by 2036. One independent macro model places gross federal debt — a broader measure — even higher, at nearly 126% of GDP by year’s end.
No easy exits
The CRFB’s MacGuineas called for what she termed “Super PAYGO” — a fiscal rule that would require any new spending or tax cuts to be offset by twice the amount in savings — as a first step. But she acknowledged that stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio would require far more: approximately $10 trillion in total deficit reduction. One widely discussed benchmark is bringing annual deficits below 3% of GDP, a target that has attracted bipartisan interest but no concrete legislative path.
The Senate did adopt a Fiscal Year 2026 budget resolution last week, a step the CRFB called “about a year too late” and one that includes no plan to address the country’s structural deficit problem. President Trump’s proposed Fiscal Year 2027 budget, released in early April, would increase defense spending by over 40% while cutting non-defense discretionary programs — but would still leave the debt-to-GDP ratio above 100% throughout the forecast window.
“The higher we allow our debt to grow, the more we erode our own prosperity and that of future generations,” MacGuineas said. “There is no time to lose.”
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
Direct link to offers | Finder | Find & share Your Referrals in this linked post
EarnIn is currently offering two sign up bonuses that don’t stack:
Finder: $50 bonus when you open your first EarnIn account and complete a cashout
Referral bonus: Person referring receives a $75 bonus, person being referred receives a bonus of up to $70:
$35 for Cash Out
$35 for Early Pay
The Fine Print
Cash Out – you successfully complete your first transfer out.
Early Pay – you successfully provide a first Qualifying Direct Deposit of:
$250 per pay period if paid weekly,
$500 per pay period if paid bi-weekly, or
$1,000 per pay period if paid monthly.
Our Verdict
Looks like the referral bonus also requires setting up a tip yourself account. EarnIn from what I can tell is basically a pay day loan provider doing their very best to not say that. From what I can tell the minimum fees you’d pay to do the cash out are $1.99 and $2.99 for early pay. You can also tip the service (no idea why you’d ever want to do that). As long as you don’t use the card there should be no credit inquiry done. Find and share your referrals in this linked post.
A new report by Amnesty International warns that overcrowded and unsafe housing in an Atikamekw community north of Montreal reflects a broader crisis putting Indigenous people’s health, safety and rights at risk across Canada.
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Universal Music Group generated revenues of EUR €2.9 billion (USD $3.39bn) across all of its divisions (including recorded music, publishing, and more) in Q1 (the three months ending March 31, 2026).
That’s according to UMG’s fresh set of quarterly results, published today (April 29).
They reveal that UMG’s overall Q1 revenue grew 8.1% YoY at constant currency, driven by the consolidation of Downtown Music Holdings, initial pricing benefits from Streaming 2.0 agreements, strong physical sales, and synchronization income, contributing to growth in Recorded Music and Music Publishing.
Excluding Downtown, whose results are included from its acquisition date of February 20, 2026, revenue grew 4.9% YoY in constant currency.
Adjusted EBITDA weighed in at €636 million ($744.3m) — a margin of 21.9%.
Among the highlights in UMG’s latest results was the company’s recorded music subscription revenue, which grew 12.5% YoY at constant currency to reach €1.303 billion ($1.52bn) in Q1, benefiting from the consolidation of Downtown and initial pricing benefits from Streaming 2.0 agreements.
Physical revenue grew 12.7% YoY at constant currency to €310 million ($362.8m), with particular strength in Japan and the US.
Photo: Austin Hargrave
“We continue to build the most successful music company in history by attracting the world’s top talent, engaging fans globally, and delivering long-term value for stakeholders.”
Sir Lucian Grainge, UMG
Commenting on the Q1 earnings announcement, UMG’s Chairman and CEO, Sir Lucian Grainge, said: “We delivered a solid quarter of growth in our core businesses, complemented by our strategic development and investment in fast-growing areas of the industry.
“We continue to build the most successful music company in history by attracting the world’s top talent, engaging fans globally, and delivering long-term value for stakeholders. Central to that mission is fostering an environment that protects artists and songwriters, champions human creativity, and embraces innovation at a pivotal moment for our industry.”
RECORDED MUSIC
Universal’s overall Recorded Music revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was €2.253 billion ($2.64bn), up 8.9% YoY at constant currency. Excluding Downtown, Recorded Music revenue grew 5.4% YoY at constant currency.
Within the Recorded Music segment, UMG’s ‘Subscription and streaming revenues’ (including ad-supported and subscription streaming revenues) grew 10.9% YoY at constant currency to €1.642 billion ($1.92bn).
Breaking UMG’s recorded music streaming figure down further reveals that the company’s subscription streaming revenues grew 12.5% YoY at constant currency to reach €1.303 billion ($1.52bn). Excluding Downtown, subscription revenue grew 7.9% YoY at constant currency.
Universal’s ad-supported recorded music streaming revenue reached €339 million ($396.7m), up 5.0% YoY at constant currency, though the company noted that consumers continue to shift consumption from “better-monetized video platforms to short-form platforms”.
Within Universal’s recorded music business, Physical revenue grew 12.7% YoY at constant currency to €310 million ($362.8m), with particular strength in Japan and the U.S.
‘License and other’ revenue decreased 3.6% YoY at constant currency to €267 million ($312.5m), as underlying licensing revenue growth from strong synchronization revenue “was more than offset by meaningful, non-recurring live income in the first quarter of 2025.”
Downloads and other digital revenue reached €34 million ($39.8m), down 5.6% YoY at constant currency, due to the “continued industry-wide format shift”.
Top sellers for the quarter included BTS, Olivia Dean, Taylor Swift, the KPop Demon Hunters soundtrack and Morgan Wallen.
MUSIC PUBLISHING
Universal’s overall Music Publishing revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was €552 million ($645.8m), up 7.0% YoY at constant currency. Excluding Downtown, Music Publishing revenue grew 4.3% in constant currency.
Synchronization revenue grew 15.3% YoY at constant currency to €68 million ($79.6m), driven by stronger advertising, trailers, and motion picture income.
Performance revenue increased 6.5% YoY at constant currency to €115 million ($134.6m).
Digital publishing revenue reached €328 million ($383.9m), up 4.8% YoY at constant currency, with UMg citing a “difficult comparison against strong digital growth in the prior-year quarter”.
Mechanical revenue grew 12.0% YoYat constant currency to €28 million ($32.8m), partially due to physical strength in Japan.
MERCHANDISING AND OTHER
UMG’s ‘Merchandising and Other’ revenue in the first quarter of 2026 reached €101 million ($118.2m), down 1.9% YoY at constant currency.
According to UMG, the decline was driven by lower direct-to-consumer revenue due to the timing of product releases and a decline in retail sales, partially offset by strong growth in touring income driven by tours for Lady Gaga, Conan Gray, and Nine Inch Nails, amongst others.
DOWNTOWN
Downtown Music Holdings contributed €86 million ($100.6m) in total revenue from its consolidation date of February 20 — approximately five-and-a-half weeks of the quarter.
The vast majority of Downtown’s contribution came from Recorded Music, which accounted for €72 million ($84.3m) of the total. Within that, subscription and streaming revenue reached €66 million ($77.2m), of which €54 million ($63.2m) came from subscription revenue specifically.
Downtown’s Music Publishing operations contributed €14 million ($16.4m), with digital revenue of €11 million ($12.9m) making up the bulk of the publishing figure.
Downtown’s Adjusted EBITDA was €3 million ($3.5m), an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.5%.
EBITDA ETC.
In Q1 2026, UMG’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation) grew 2.1% YoY at constant currency to €571 million ($668.2m).
EBITDA margin came in at 19.7%, compared to 20.8% in the first quarter of 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was €636 million ($744.3m), up 3.9% YoY at constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.9%, compared to 22.8% in the first quarter of 2025, with the decline primarily due to the consolidation of Downtown.
Excluding Downtown, Adjusted EBITDA grew 3.4% YoY in constant currency.
SHARE BUYBACK AND SPOTIFY STAKE
Alongside its Q1 results, UMG announced that its Board has increased the size of its share buyback authorization to €1 billion ($1.17bn).
When UMG completes its €500 million share buyback program announced in March, it intends to initiate another buyback program for the incremental €500 million, subject to market conditions and shareholder approval at UMG’s 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 13.
As first reported by MBW earlier today, UMG also confirmed that, in March 2026, its Board authorized the monetization of half of its equity stake in Spotify.
The announcement comes against the backdrop of Bill Ackman’sPershing Square having submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire UMG in a deal valued at approximately $64 billion earlier this month, a bid which itself proposed the sale of UMG’s full Spotify stake to help fund its cash component.
“Against the backdrop of a healthy industry, we are consistently driving sustained revenue growth through our multi-faceted strategy, while continuing to expand EBITDA and reinvest for the future.”
Matt Ellis, UMG
Matt Ellis, UMG’s CFO, said: “Against the backdrop of a healthy industry, we are consistently driving sustained revenue growth through our multi-faceted strategy, while continuing to expand EBITDA and reinvest for the future.
“In addition, the important steps we are announcing today to increase our share buyback authorization and monetize a portion of our equity stake in Spotify will lead to enhanced shareholder value while maintaining the flexibility the Company requires to drive further success.”
All EUR-USD conversions made at the average Q1 2026 exchange rate published by the European Central Bank.Music Business Worldwide
The Blockchain Association says a group of its members, including Coinbase, the Solana Institute, and others, held an informational gathering on Capitol Hill today to help educate staffers and their members on the CLARITY Act.
Crypto market infrastructure legislation remains in limbo because legacy banks fear losing revenue to competition. More specifically, incumbent banks worry that stablecoin holders who earn yield may compel them to pay higher rates to deposit holders.
Via X, the Association shared:
The discussion walked Hill staffers through the market structure debate and the need for workable rules for developers, balanced regulatory authority, and clear protections for non-custodial software developers.
Meanwhile, crypto reporter Eleanor Terret reported that Senator Thom Tillis says they are ready to move the bill to Markup.
“I’m going to ask the chair to move forward with scheduling a markup when we get back… I think we’ve made a lot of progress… and it’s time to get it before the committee to move it forward.”
Apparently, bank concerns regarding yield have been addressed.
The digital asset industry is concerned that if legislation gets pushed back even further, it will lose momentum, or even worse, fall to the wayside as elected officials gear up for the midterms.
While the White House has been supportive of the crypto industry, including the debate on stablecoin yield, legacy banks have dug in, refusing to accept a future that incorporates crypto – one where they can choose to compete.
Most investors see Brookfield Corporation (BN 2.40%) as an asset manager. That’s not wrong, but it misses what the business is becoming.
Brookfield Corporation isn’t just managing capital anymore. It’s building a system that can generate, control, and reinvest capital within its own ecosystem — a model that increasingly resembles how Berkshire Hathaway compounds wealth over time.
That shift may look subtle today. But over time, it could create enormous wealth for shareholders.
Image source: Getty Images.
Brookfield Corporation controls capital, not just manages it
Most asset managers raise capital and invest it on behalf of clients. Brookfield Corporation goes further.
Alongside third-party funds (more than $1 trillion), it invests the capital on its own balance sheet ($180 billion) and is expanding its wealth solution (insurance) business, which now holds $135 billion in assets. That gives Brookfield Corporation access to capital it doesn’t need to return for some time.
That flexibility matters. It allows the company to hold assets longer, reinvest cash flows, and deploy capital when markets are weak, rather than selling on a fixed timeline. That’s a competitive advantage, since few asset managers operate this way.
That’s also what makes the comparison to Berkshire Hathaway legitimate since both models rely on patient capital and a long-term outlook in their investment decision-making.
Today’s Change
(-2.40%) $-1.06
Current Price
$43.17
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$97B
Day’s Range
$42.95 – $44.46
52wk Range
$35.66 – $49.56
Volume
1.6K
Avg Vol
6.3M
Gross Margin
26.37%
Dividend Yield
0.58%
Its earnings are becoming more predictable
Another important shift is happening in how Brookfield Corporation makes money.
Through Brookfield Asset Management, the company generates roughly $3 billion in annual fee-related earnings, growing at more than 20% year over year. These earnings come from long-term capital commitments and are generally stable.
At the same time, many of Brookfield Corporation’s underlying assets — such as infrastructure and renewable power — generate consistent cash flows. And let’s not forget the insurance business, which is slowly becoming the third profit engine for the company.
Together, this creates a business with more visible, repeatable earnings rather than relying heavily on one-time gains. To put it into perspective, the infrastructure, renewable power, and insurance businesses generated $1.6 billion in distributable earnings in the 2025 fourth quarter.
For long-term investors, having a consistent profit engine is crucial to sustaining the growth machine.
Why may the market be underestimating it?
Brookfield Corporation now manages more than $1 trillion in assets, yet it remains a complex company.
It operates across multiple segments, reports different types of earnings, and doesn’t fit neatly into a single category. As a result, some investors may overlook how the pieces fit together.
That complexity can create a gap between perception and reality. But for those willing to do the extra work, it may present an opportunity. One thing is that as its asset management’s fee-based earnings grow and its insurance platform scales, the business may become easier to understand.
Also, Berkshire Hathaway has always been complex, if not more so. Still, that complexity hasn’t stopped it from becoming one of the most successful companies during the past few decades.
If Brookfield Corporation continues to execute, it could become the next Berkshire Hathaway, with a similar business structure and long-term shareholders’ wealth creation.
What does it mean for investors?
Brookfield Corporation doesn’t look exactly like Berkshire Hathaway today. But it shares some of the same foundations: long-term capital, operational control, and a focus on reinvesting cash flows over time.
In simple terms, Brookfield Corporation is becoming a company that can generate, manage, and reinvest capital within its own system.
If the model continues to scale, Brookfield Corporation may evolve into something that investors are looking for: a long-term compounding machine.
And for investors willing to look past the complexity, this is the stock that they may want to add to their portfolio.
