The Iranian attack on the Diego Garcia air base — about 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers) from Iran — suggested Tehran has missiles that can go farther than it had previously acknowledged.

Also Saturday, Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility was hit in an airstrike, an official Iranian news agency reported, saying there was no radiation leakage.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a video statement that next week, “the intensity of the attacks” by Israel and the United States against Iran’s ruling theocracy will “increase significantly.”

He spoke shortly after fragments from an Iranian missile slammed into an empty kindergarten near Tel Aviv. Israeli army spokesman Nadav Shoshani posted a video on X of the kindergarten building. The school was empty at the time and no casualties were reported.

Overnight and into the morning, Iran’s capital saw heavy airstrikes, residents said. The attacks — and threats of more to come — indicate the Iran war shows no sign of abating.

The U.S. and Israel have offered shifting rationales for the war, from hoping to foment an uprising that topples Iran’s leadership to eliminating its nuclear and missile programs. There have been no public signs of any such uprising.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Japan’s Kyodo news service Friday that Iran wanted “not a ceasefire, but a complete, comprehensive and lasting end to the war.”

Trump says he’s looking at ‘winding down’ operations

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that he was considering “winding down” military operations in the Mideast, which seemed at odds with his administration’s move to bolster its firepower in the region and request another $200 billion from Congress to fund the war.

The U.S. is deploying three more amphibious assault ships and roughly 2,500 additional Marines to the Mideast, an official told The Associated Press. Two other U.S. officials confirmed that ships were deploying, without saying where they were headed. All three spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the military operations.

In a move aimed at wrangling soaring fuel prices, the Trump administration announced it was lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil. The pause in sanctions applies to Iranian oil already loaded on ships as of Friday and is set to end April 19. The license has limits including a restriction on sales involving anyone in North Korea or Cuba.

The new move does not increase the flow of production, a central factor in the surging prices. Iran has managed to evade U.S. sanctions for years, suggesting that much of what it exports already reaches buyers.

Saudi Arabia said it downed 20 drones in just a couple of hours Saturday in the country’s eastern region, home to major oil installations. No injuries or damage were reported.

Iran attempts to hit Diego Garcia air base in the Indian Ocean

U.K. officials have not given details of the strike that targeted the ocean air base Friday, which was unsuccessful.

Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Saturday that Iran’s “lashing out across the region and holding hostage the Strait of Hormuz, are a threat to British interests and British allies.”

Britain has not participated in U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran but has allowed American bombers to use U.K. bases to attack Iran’s missile sites.

On Friday, the British government said U.S. bombers can also use U.K. bases, including Diego Garcia, in operations to prevent Iran attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran targeted the base before that U.K. statement.

No leakage reported after attack on Iran nuclear facility

Iran’s official news agency, Mizan, said there was no leakage after Saturday’s strike on the Natanz nuclear facility, nearly 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran.

The facility, Iran’s main uranium enrichment site, was hit in the first week of the war and several buildings appeared damaged, according to satellite images. The United Nations nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency — had said “no radiological consequence” were expected from that earlier strike. Natanz had also been targeted in the 12-day war last June.

On Saturday, the IAEA said on X that it was informed by Iran about the Natanz strike and about there being no increase in off-site radiation levels. The agency said it was looking into the incident.

Iran threatens attacks beyond the Middle East

Iran’s top military spokesperson, Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, warned Friday that “parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations” worldwide will not be safe for the country’s enemies.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei praised Iranians’ steadfastness in the face of war in a written statement read on Iranian television to mark the Persian New Year, or Nowruz. Khamenei has not been seen in public since he became supreme leader after Israeli strikes killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and reportedly wounded him.

With little information coming out of Iran, it was not clear how much damage its arms, nuclear or energy facilities have sustained in the punishing U.S. and Israeli strikes, which began Feb. 28 — or even who was truly in charge of the country.

But Iran’s attacks are still choking off oil supplies and raising food and fuel prices far beyond the Middle East.

Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants clash in southern Lebanon

The Israeli military said its forces were conducting a “targeted ground operation” Saturday with the support of Israeli aircraft and that at least four militants were killed.

Hezbollah also released a statement saying its fighters clashed with Israeli troops in the southern village of Khiam.

So far, Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon have killed more than 1,000 people and displaced more than 1 million, according to the Lebanese government.

More than 1,300 people have been killed in Iran during the war. In Israel, 15 people have been killed by Iranian missiles and four others have died in the occupied West Bank. At least 13 U.S. military members have been killed.

Well, that was certainly unpleasant. From Feb. 28, when bombs started falling on Iran, to March 7 — the end of the first week of the Iran war — gasoline prices in the U.S. jumped more than $0.48 to an average of $3.46 per gallon. They’re up another $0.42 over the last couple of weeks, hitting $3.88 per gallon on Wednesday evening.

If history is any guide, gas prices aren’t coming down anytime soon.

A historical guide to oil shocks

Oil prices are rising on a supply shock. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed that “not a litre of oil” will move through the Strait of Hormuz without its say-so. In response, the Trump administration says it’s considering providing U.S. Navy escorts for tankers transiting the Strait. Three weeks into the war, however, it seems in no hurry to start.

What does this mean for the price of oil — and gasoline? History gives us several examples of similar supply shocks, most originating in the same Persian Gulf where today’s troubles are unfolding.

If you examine a chart of historic gas prices, you’ll notice big jumps in gasoline prices around the time of the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ousted the Shah, and also “Gulf War 1,” when U.S. and coalition forces ejected Iraq from Kuwait and Saddam Hussein’s army set the Kuwaiti oilfields on fire.

1973 OPEC oil embargo

Over a near-50-year history, it’s hard to discern precise effects, but I can sketch them out. In 1973, after OPEC embargoed oil shipments to punish the U.S. for supporting Israel, gas prices initially didn’t rise much — only 10% to $0.39 per gallon, according to Department of Energy data. Prices really shot up in 1975, though, to $0.53 (a 47% increase from 1973).

They haven’t returned to such low levels since.

1979 Iranian Revolution

Gas prices averaged $0.63 in 1979, when the Shah was ousted. Prices surged 36% to $0.86 per gallon in 1980, then leapt another 38% (89% total) in 1981. It would be another six years — 1987 — before prices returned to 1980 levels.

1979’s gas price would never be seen again.

1990 Gulf War 1

Gas prices in the U.S. averaged $1 a gallon in 1990 before Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Quick action and multilateral cooperation pushed him back out by 1991, limiting gas price increases to just $1.14 per gallon.

What’s more, with Hussein chastened, the Gulf region settled down, and gas prices actually began to fall. They were $1.13 per gallon in 1992, $1.11 in 1993, and still $1.11 in 1994. It was 1995 before inflation returned and oil prices resumed rising.

Future history now

What can investors learn from the above? First, the initial $0.48 jump in gas prices may be only the beginning. The United States Oil Fund (USO +3.47%) ETF is up nearly 50% since the war’s start, after all. A year from now, gas prices could be even higher, and prices may not come back down for years — if ever.

Unless, that is, the current conflict resolves the underlying issue — namely, a belligerent Iran able to choke off global oil supplies at a whim. If you remove that threat, there’s a chance, as in 1991, that gas prices could return to “normal” after the shooting stops.

Keep your fingers crossed.