The broadening conflict in the Middle East means global businesses must redraw their risk assessments.
Best Budgeting Apps For 2026 (Free And Paid)
Best Budgeting Apps For 2026 (Free And Paid)
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Jobs Report Miss Keeps Mortgage Rates From Getting Even Worse
I think the best way to look at today’s weak jobs report is that is helped keep mortgage rates in place.
If it had come in hot, mortgage rates would have likely climbed up another notch, perhaps closer to 6.25%.
Instead, after a little bit of early morning bouncing around, they appear to be holding strong at yesterday’s levels.
In other words, despite all that’s going on, we still have a 30-year fixed that is a stone’s throw from a 5-handle.
That means mortgage rates remain close to lows not seen since mid-2022.
Worsening Labor Allows Mortgage Rates to Shake Off Spike in Oil Prices
- Another bad jobs report prevented bond yields from rising even more to end the week
- Offsets the big spike in oil prices that have climbed to $90+ per barrel
- Prevents 30-year fixed mortgage rates from climbing even further away from 6%
- But also tells us the economy is on very shaky ground
When the jobs report was released this morning at 8:30 am EST, the 10-year bond yield plunged.
It had started higher on the day, rising to nearly 4.18% before plummeting to around 4.10% on the much cooler-than-expected report.
It was a big miss, with negative jobs during February (-92,000) and the unemployment rate climbing back up to 4.4% from 4.3%.
The forecast called for 50,000 jobs created and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate.
Revisions meant job gains for December also turned negative, dropping from +48,000 to a loss of 17,000.
That was “good news” for mortgage rates, despite being bad news for the wider economy and job seekers.
It led to a big reversal in bond yields, which have steadily risen all week thanks to the Iranian conflict.
In fact, bond yields were sub-4% as recently as a week ago, and the 30-year fixed was sub-6% too.
Ever since the war broke out, both have been climbing higher, without the usual flight to safety.
The main takeaway is that oil prices have surged higher, which leads to higher inflation, all else equal.
Higher inflation means higher bond yields and higher mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rates Avoid Another Leg Up Thanks to Unexpected Job Losses
Thanks to another super weak jobs report, mortgage rates avoided a move even higher.
As we can see from the 10-year bond yield chart above, they were making their way toward 4.20% before the report was released.
Had it exceeded expectations, there was a very good chance we’d have a 10-year yield back around 4.20% if not even higher.
Combined with the current spread of roughly 200 basis points (bps), you’d be looking at a 30-year fixed mortgage rate around 6.25%.
Instead, mortgage rates are holding the line today and will likely be unchanged with most banks and lenders.
Essentially, we avoided another big disaster for rates, which have been under immense pressure all week thanks to Iran, surging oil prices, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking of oil prices, they topped $90 today as the conflict appears to be intensifying, with new strikes carried out and a statement from Trump early this morning saying, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
Simply put, this conflict doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.
That means gas prices will likely stay elevated for the foreseeable future, adding to inflation concerns at a time when the Fed is expected to keep cutting rates.
As such, mortgage rates may have a tough time moving much lower until this issue is resolved.
But We Could’ve Had a ~5.75% 30-Year Fixed by Now
I was thinking had this whole thing not taken place, chances are mortgage rates would be deep into the 5s by now.
As noted, the 10-year bond yield was already sub-4%, and had it remained mostly flat sans the conflict, it’d likely be even deeper into the 3s today.
The 30-year fixed, which was around 5.99% prior to this week may have been making its way toward 5.875% and then 5.75%.
And at a critical time for the housing market, given it’s the hottest time of the year for home buying.
Instead, we’re facing a ton of uncertainty, something I spoke about recently.
Sure, mortgage rates are only .125% to .25% higher than they were a week ago, which translates to a nominal increase in housing payment.
But now we’ve got a world full of doubt, something that might give a prospective home buyer pause given affordability is already unfavorable.
The best-case scenario is this conflict gets resolved sooner rather than later, both for all parties involved, the economy, and mortgage rates.
(photo: Paula Rey)
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
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Do No-Buy Challenges Actually Save Money?
Key Points
- “No-Buy 2026” challenges encourage people to stop discretionary spending for a set period, often a month or a full year, to redirect money toward savings or debt repayment.
- These challenges can improve awareness of spending habits and create short-term cash flow, but they rarely solve structural financial problems on their own.
- Long-term progress toward goals like paying down loans or saving for college usually requires a broader plan that includes budgeting systems, debt strategy, and income growth.
Social media trends often promise quick financial transformation. The latest example is the “No-Buy 2026” challenge, where participants pledge to stop buying non-essential items for weeks or even the entire year.
Participants commonly eliminate categories like clothing, takeout meals, cosmetics, home decor, and impulse online purchases. The idea is simple: reduce discretionary spending and redirect the money toward savings goals such as college funds, emergency savings, or debt repayment.
At first glance, the strategy appears powerful. If someone cuts $200 in monthly discretionary spending, that could translate to $2,400 saved in a year. But financial planners say the challenge works best as a behavioral reset — not as a complete financial plan.
The question many households are asking: Can spending freezes meaningfully help families save for college or pay off debt?
@money.lessons000 Your no-buy rules should be personal — no one needs to follow mine. 💛 I’m just sharing what’s helping me prepare for my No Buy 2026. If you’re planning your own no buy year, this is your sign to start now. ✨ Let’s talk mindset, habits & setting rules that actually fit YOUR life. #nobuy2026 #nobuyyear #nospendchallenge #debtpayoffjourney #nobuyrules ♬ Daydreaming Lofi Beat – The Machinist Beats
Would you like to save this?
What Is A “No-Buy” Challenge?
At its core, a no-buy challenge targets one of the most flexible parts of a household budget: discretionary spending.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average American household spends more than $3,600 per year on dining out and about $2,000 annually on apparel and related services. Even modest reductions in those categories can free up hundreds of dollars per month.
For someone trying to build savings or tackle debt, that immediate cash flow can help.
A simple example illustrates the effect:
- Cutting $250 per month in discretionary spending
- Redirecting the money to debt repayment
- Over 12 months, that equals $3,000 applied to a balance
If that payment targets high-interest credit card debt (where interest rates frequently exceed 20 percent) the savings from reduced interest can add up quickly.
For college savings, a similar monthly amount invested in a 529 plan could accumulate meaningfully over time. If $250 per month were invested with an average annual return of 6%, the account could grow to roughly $19,000 after five years.
The math shows why no-buy challenges feel effective: they produce visible results quickly.
But there is a catch.
When Spending Freezes Actually Help
Financial educators say no-buy challenges tend to work best in three situations.
1. They expose hidden spending habits
Many people underestimate how much they spend on small purchases.
Coffee runs, online shopping, and food delivery often escape notice because they happen frequently but in small amounts. A temporary freeze forces households to track spending and identify patterns.
Behavioral research shows that simply tracking spending can reduce it. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found that people who actively monitor expenses are more likely to stay within budget limits.
A no-buy period essentially acts as a reset button.
2. They create short-term momentum
Psychology matters when dealing with debt or long-term savings goals.
Someone who saves $500 during a no-buy month can see quick progress. That early success can build motivation to continue with longer-term financial changes.
This is similar to the concept behind “snowball” debt strategies, where small wins build momentum.
3. They help households rebuild cash reserves
Families who experienced recent financial strain (layoffs, medical bills, or large unexpected expenses) sometimes use spending freezes to rebuild emergency savings quickly.
In those situations, temporarily cutting discretionary spending can help stabilize cash flow.
When No-Buy Challenges Can Hurt Your Financial Picture
Despite their popularity, spending freezes often fail to address the biggest drivers of financial stress.
1. High-interest debt requires strategy
A household with $20,000 in credit card debt may save a few hundred dollars through a no-buy challenge. But interest charges could still be adding thousands of dollars per year.
In those cases, larger structural moves often produce bigger results:
- Refinancing high-interest balances with a lower-rate personal loan
- Using a balance transfer credit card
- Negotiating lower interest rates with lenders
Without addressing interest costs, spending freezes alone may only slow the problem.
2. Budget systems matter more than temporary restrictions
A one-month or one-year spending freeze is still temporary.
Once the challenge ends, spending often rebounds if households do not adopt a sustainable budgeting system.
Financial planners often recommend simple frameworks such as:
- 50/30/20 budgeting, where 50 percent of income goes to needs, 30 percent to wants, and 20 percent to savings or debt repayment
- Automated transfers into savings or investment accounts
- Dedicated sinking funds for predictable expenses
Those systems create long-term structure rather than relying on temporary discipline.
3. Income growth can outweigh spending cuts
For many households, the largest financial gains come from increasing income rather than reducing spending.
Negotiating salary increases, switching jobs, adding freelance work, or developing new skills can increase income far more than cutting occasional purchases.
Consider the math:
- Cutting $200 per month saves $2,400 annually
- A $5,000 salary increase creates more than double that impact
Spending discipline still matters, but income changes often produce faster progress toward goals like college savings.
The Bottom Line
No-buy challenges are popular because they offer a clear, simple promise: spend less and save more.
In practice, they work best as a short-term reset. They can reveal spending habits, build financial awareness, and free up cash that can jump-start debt repayment or college savings.
Yet the biggest financial progress typically comes from broader changes — structured budgets, smarter debt management, and income growth.
For households considering a “No-Buy 2026” challenge, the most productive approach may be to treat it as the starting point of a larger financial strategy rather than the entire plan.
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The post Do No-Buy Challenges Actually Save Money? appeared first on The College Investor.
Caesars Rewards Amex Offer: Save $40 on Your Next Stay
Caesars Rewards Amex Offer
Check your American Express credit cards for a new Amex Offer that can save you $40 at select Caesars Rewards properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe & Atlantic City. You can find this offer in your Amex consumer and business credit cards. Caesars Rewards has several properties in these cities, so if you plan to visit, then it’s worth adding this offer now. Check out the full details of the offer below.
Offer Details
Earn a one-time $40 statement credit after using your enrolled eligible Card to spend a minimum of $200 in one or more purchases on room rate and room charges at participating Caesars Rewards select properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe & Atlantic City from 3/6/2026 to 5/24/2025.
- Las Vegas: Caesars Palace, Nobu Hotel, The Cromwell, Paris Las Vegas, Planet Hollywood, Horseshoe Las Vegas, Flamingo Las Vegas, Harrah’s Las Vegas, and LINQ Hotel;
- Atlantic City: Caesars Atlantic City, Harrah’s Resort Atlantic City, Tropicana Atlantic City, and Nobu Hotel Caesars Atlantic City;
- Reno: Eldorado Resort Casino, Silver Legacy Resort Casino, and Circus Circus Reno;
- Lake Tahoe: Harrah’s Lake Tahoe and Caesars Republic Lake Tahoe.
Offer and availability may vary by cardholder. Just login to your American Express account(s) to see if you are eligible to add this offer to your card(s).
Important Terms
- Reservations must be made directly through Caesars Rewards by phone, online at US website Caesars.com or individual property websites, or through the mobile app.
- Excludes all Caesars Rewards hotels outside of Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe and Atlantic City.
- Excludes pool, lounges, bars, and other amenities and gift card purchases.
- Offer only valid on room rate and room charges.
- Not valid for lodging stays that are paid for before the promotion start date or after the promotion end date.
- Offer valid only on purchases made in US dollars.
About Amex Offers
Amex Offers are an extra perk on all American Express credit cards, charge cards, and even prepaid cards. You can see these offers in your accounts either as a statement credit or extra Membership Rewards points for spending a certain amount at eligible merchants. You will need to add the offer to a specific card first, and then use that card to get the credit. Here are a few things you should know:
Guru’s Wrap-up
This is a good offer that seems to be widely available for most cardholders. Check your accounts and add it now if you think you plan on visiting Las Vegas, Atlantic city or any of the other destinations.
You must charge at least $200 or more in order to get a $40 credit. That amounts to a 20% discount. You can use this Amex Offer for room rate and room charges.
There’s also a Chase Offer for Caesars Rewards, offering 10% back for a maximum credit of $50.
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They Quit an Influencer Marketing Startup and Built Their Own. Now They’re Projecting to Make $3M
Storytime aims to turn influencer marketing into a scalable, city-by-city marketplace for local businesses.
The unexpected 92,000 drop in payrolls is a clue we might be reading the AI jobs narrative all wrong
The shocking news that U.S. payrolls dropped by 92,000 in February—market watchers were expecting a 50,000 gain—trained the spotlight on what’s probably today’s most worrisome issue for everyone from money managers to Main Street shareholders to office workers: What’s the looming impact of AI on jobs? The widely accepted view, of course, holds that AI has already started generating gigantic efficiency gains empowering enterprises to do everything quicker and better while deploying far fewer people. But is that what’s really going on? Or is it possible there’s another explanation?
We know there’s been a huge jump in global capital spending on AI, a number that Gartner expects to reach $2.5 trillion this year, up 44% over 2025. And that money’s got to come from somewhere. So some experts are starting to theorize that the narrative is backwards: Companies aren’t curbing headcount because AI’s accelerating their processes right now. Instead, they’re offsetting a lot of those lavish AI outlays by tightening the biggest expense item on their income statements, labor costs.
That’s the view of Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan, a firm that manages $25 billion on behalf of such clients as charitable institutions and college endowments. He’s not buying the “AI’s doing all those peoples’ jobs right now or soon” argument. “You see it at our company,” he told Fortune. “We’ve bought five different AI software products in the past six months. AI is better at little functions, but doesn’t replace people overall. A job does 100 things in a day, and that’s a lot more than a single AI workflow can perform. It replaces activities that are just pieces of jobs. We have programmers who have to de-bug what AI produces.” Conger avows that at his shop, AI’s adoption hasn’t cost a single job.
On the other hand, he views Jack Dorsey’s explanation for Block’s recent decision to cut 10,000 employees, 40% of the total, as pure camouflage. Dorsey avows that “This decision comes from a position of strength. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to run a company. A significantly smaller team using the tools we’re building can do more and do it better.” Conger theorizes instead that Block way over-hired by more than doubling its workforce since 2019. “Block is an incredibly inefficient business,” he argues. “Now they say AI made them more productive and therefore they can lay off people. They had no choice but to pivot. AI’s an excuse for the inevitable.”
Conger contends that for the big spenders on the technology, including Block, “AI’s not replacing jobs, but job cuts are funding AI expenditures.” Several sprinters in the race are indeed implying that workforce reductions help pay for their AI outlays. In unveiling layoffs of 1,700 or 8.5% in February, Workforce CEO Carl Eschenbach declared that the cuts were necessary to prioritize AI investment and free up resources. Between October and January, Amazon announced that it’s slashing 30,000 positions. The cuts coincide with an explosion in the internet giant’s capex, which more than doubled from $53 billion in 2023 to $133 billion last year. In 2026, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is pledging a blowout reaching $200 billion. Beth Galetti, SVP for people experience and technology, stated that Amazon’s “shifting resources to ensure we’re investing in our biggest bets and what matters most to our customers” in a campaign “to be organized more leanly, with fewer layers and more ownership.”
Other leaders who’ve cut workers big time don’t explicitly cite shrinking payrolls as a way to save cash they can re-channel into AI. Rather, they trumpet that AI is already substituting for people. Microsoft’s mass layoffs of 15,000 last year came as its AI-driven capex followed a soaring trajectory resembling Amazon’s. CEO Satya Nadella explained that the Windows and Azure titan needs to “reimagine its mission for a new era” via AI. Following layoffs of 4,000 in September and 10,000 in February, Salesforce co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff asserted that AI is already performing 50% of all the work at the top CRM platform. In May, CrowdStrike chief George Kurtz pointed to AI in announcing cuts a cut of 500. “AI flattens the hiring curve, and helps us innovate from idea to product faster,” Kurtz contended.
As Conger acknowledges, we simply don’t know if AI will eventually allow companies to work just as well, or even significantly better, using far fewer employees. But he doesn’t see it now. Instead, Conger finds that what’s regarded as totally transformative technology is often getting trotted out as a ruse for cuts to bloated workforces that had to happen anyway, or as a wager on the miracles to come. Unfortunately, America’s workers may be paying for that wager.
Swagbucks/MP: Get $100-$109 Back With Walmart+ Annual Subscription ($98 Cost)
The Offer
Swagbucks link | MyPoints link
- Swagbucks is offering $100 cash back on Walmart+ annual membership ($98 cost + tax).
- Similar offer on MyPoints for 17,500 which around $108-$110.
- Some people have an AmEx Offer for $49 back which would make this a real moneymaker. That offer ends on March 14, 2026, so you’ll have to have the charge completed by then (no trials).
The Fine Print
- Cash Back will not be awarded for Walmart+ Trial Memberships nor Walmart+ Assist Memberships or Walmart+ Student Memberships.
- Cash Back will only be awarded for the initial purchase of a Walmart+ Membership and is not a reoccurring award.
- Terms & Conditions apply. Free delivery on $35+ orders. Restrictions apply.
Our Verdict
This is an awesome deal and is the same deal we saw from Swagbucks years ago when Walmart+ launched and many of us got that first year free. Since that initial run they haven’t really been offering Walmart+ membership on the portals at all.
I was shocked to see Swagbucks/Walmart running this deal again, and I initially assumed it was a typo error from Swabucks. However, it’s available on MyPoints and Inbox Dollars as well, and there’s a clear graphic for the $100 offer, so it’s clearly legit. It’s probably Walmart trying to spruce up their numbers before end of quarter or something of that nature.
If you have an existing Walmart+ membership, this deal probably won’t work. Personally, I just got the Business Gold card which has free Walmart+. When the card comes, I’ll try signing up for the $13 monthly deal and stack it with the AmEx credit.
If you know of any other stacks, please let us know in the comments.
If you’re new to Swagbucks then please read our review. You can get a bonus of up to $13 by using a referral link.
- William’s Swagbucks referral link
- Chuck’s Swagbucks referral link
- Chuck’s MyPoints referral link
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Falling Mortgage Rates Could Make It Harder to Find Cash Flowing Properties—But Here’s How Investors Can Find Them Anyway
Mortgage rates have hit their lowest levels in three years, and while that should be a cause for celebration from prospective homebuyers, it hasn’t translated into greater sales. In fact, it could trigger the opposite: a greater affordability crisis.
According to brokerage and listings site Redfin, 13.7% of homes that went under contract in January fell through—the highest share ever recorded for that month. There are two main reasons for this.
First, it’s a buyer’s market, so they can afford to pick and choose. However, the second reason has greater repercussions for investors: financial insecurity.
Many buyers are walking away from deals because they are worried about the additional costs of owning a home—taxes, insurance, and maintenance—all of which are soaring. Additionally, there is job insecurity and the fear of how tariffs will affect their business and income, which, coupled with the overall cost of living, from food prices to furnishings and energy costs, has many buyers fearful about using a large lump of cash for a down payment and then being on the line for a cadre of monthly expenses they didn’t have when they were renting.
“They’re second-guessing the wisdom of making a huge purchase when there’s a fear in the back of their mind about the state of the economy and the uncertainty of their finances,” Los Angeles real estate agent Alin Glogovicean told Redfin’s news site. “That’s particularly true when they’re first-time buyers who don’t have equity from a previous home sale, and they’re using most or all of their savings on a down payment.”
Mortgage Rates Fall, But Affordability Barely Moves
Despite mortgage rates dropping below 6.1%, NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun says that has not translated into sales. He said in a press release:
“Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity…Unless housing supply increases, these additional potential buyers becoming active in the market could simply push up home prices. This will put increasing pressure on affordability, which is why it is critical to increase supply by building more homes.”
The market is not monolithic, and while sales are stagnant nationally, Realtor.com reports that these markets saw increased sales year over year as of January:
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: +11.8%
- Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: +10.7%
- Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: +10.7%
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: +8.9%
- Oklahoma City, OK: +8.7%
How Cheaper Rates Make Homes Less Affordable
As a recent HousingWire article points out, analyzing data from Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com shows that past episodes of sharply lower mortgage rates triggered rapid price appreciation that more than offset the savings from cheaper financing, particularly during the pandemic-era boom, leaving buyers facing higher monthly payments despite lower interest rates.
As yet, there has not been a sudden price increase, partly because the interest rate decreases have been gradual. The drop from about 6.96% in early 2025 to roughly 6.1% a year later, along with modest income gains, has given a medium-income household more than $30,000 in additional pricing power compared to a year ago, according to Fox Business, using Zillow research.
How Real Estate Investors Should Navigate the Current Market
Investors looking to stay active in the current market have a few options.
Buy with cash and negotiate
Whether you use your own cash or hard money with a plan to refinance, making an all-cash offer when houses aren’t selling and buyers are backing out gives you negotiating power. Finding a motivated seller and striking a deal will stand you in good stead when rates drop further and prices increase.
Buy now with a fixed-interest loan and service the debt
An interest rate of around 6% is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering where we were a couple of years ago. The good news is that house prices have only moved incrementally recently, so lock something in now, service the debt with rents, and enjoy the tax benefits—hoping to cash flow at 6% in most markets is a tad optimistic—and plan to make a move when things pick up, either through lower rents or an increase in prices.
Buy a small multifamily with an FHA loan
This old chestnut works in most markets because you’re always going to need somewhere to live, so you might as well have your tenants help you do it.
At around 6%, your mortgage payment, when buttressed by your tenants’ rents, will be affordable, and after a year, you can see where the market is and either refinance this home into a regular loan, rise and repeat elsewhere, or stay put and save for another investment. The great thing about an FHA loan is that you only need to put 3.5% down, and your credit doesn’t have to be stellar.
Move to a much cheaper market and start accruing rentals.
If you have equity in your personal residence, live in an expensive market, and have flexibility about where you can live and work, selling and moving to a cheaper market could help you kick-start your investment career.
If you have lived in your primary residence for two out of the past five years, you will be eligible to avoid capital gains taxes on $250,000 (if single) or $500,000 (if married) in profits (that amount could be dramatically increasing), which could serve as a down payment in less expensive areas on a few rentals. If one of those rentals is also a small multifamily where you live, you have just jump-started your retirement.
Final Thoughts
It would almost be easier to strategize if interest rates were higher, because your options would be more clear-cut. A 6% interest rate tempts you to stick a toe in the water—and only hope that a shark doesn’t come and grab hold of your ankle!
But remember that taxes and insurance are still high, as is the cost of living, so an interest rate drop by half a point or even a point probably doesn’t move the needle much in your overall finances from where they were a year ago. However, the same goes for renters who need a place to live but can’t afford to buy.
Thus, if you buy a rental in a decent area now, you are likely to have a line of applicants. The important thing is to buy sensibly, not exhaust your reserves, and not rely on making much, if any, cash flow in the short term.