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US aircraft attack Iran after drone strike on cargo ship that Tehran called ‘ceasefire management’



The U.S. struck Iran on Friday in response to a drone attack a day earlier on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s the most significant test yet to an interim understanding reached a week ago by the two countries to begin working to end their months-long war and reopen the pivotal waterway.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the drone attack violated the ceasefire. The strikes came shortly after Trump told reporters, “You’ll find out,” whether the U.S. would respond.

U.S. Central Command said the military struck missile and drone locations and coastal radar sites in Iran.

“I don’t like the fact that they took a shot yesterday, actually four of them,” Trump said at the White House shortly before the U.S. struck back. When asked why there would be strikes when Trump has insisted talks with Tehran are going well, Trump said of Iran: “They’re a little bit different.”

He then abruptly cut off questions and reporters were ushered out of his office.

Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, responded to Trump on social media earlier Friday, saying, “the Strait of Hormuz is governed by Iran, so: Respect the rules” and to “not mistake control for escalation.”

“This is not a violation of the ceasefire; it is ceasefire management,” Azizi wrote.

Strikes conclude an hour later

The U.S. strikes on Iran concluded about an hour after U.S. Central Command announced the military action on social media, a U.S. official with knowledge of the situation told The Associated Press. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing military operation.

The British military said on Thursday that a container ship was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman, coming hours after Iran threatened vessels to stop using the route. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said no injuries were reported.

The development came during a fragile time for the U.S. and Iran as they work to negotiate a permanent end to the war. Iran has increasingly challenged the region and the U.S. over its control of the Strait of Hormuz, even with the current interim deal it reached with the U.S. last week.

The attack on the cargo ship happened while a United Nations maritime agency was beginning an operation to move stranded ships out of the strait this week, using an alternative route, hugging the shores of Oman rather than sailing through the central part of the strait.

The International Maritime Organization halted the evacuations after the attack and said on Friday they won’t resume until there are guarantees that the other ships won’t be attacked.

About 115 ships were able to move out of the strait in recent days, leaving about 500 still in the area, said Arsenio Dominguez, the agency’s secretary-general.

The opening of the alternative passage through the strait was expected to relieve pressure on the world economy and remove Iran’s main source of leverage in ongoing peace talks with the U.S.

The U.S. and Iran are still negotiating terms of the deal, including issues such as getting ships through the key strait and addressing the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Under the interim deal, the two sides have 60 days to work out the details.

Cargo ship attack poses a test for shipping

Shipping analysts said the drone strike cast a shadow over what had been a growing stream of trapped vessels finally leaving the Gulf and an increasing flow of tankers carrying crude oil.

“A week of widening commercial confidence in the Strait of Hormuz has hit its first significant test,” said marine data company Windward on X. It said that while the strait remains operationally open with 43 transits recorded after the incident, “the pace of normalization has slowed.”

On Wednesday before Thursday’s drone strike, 78 vessels transited the strait, the highest since the war began, although below the prewar averages of 130 or more per day.

At least two tankers reversed course while attempting to transit the strait on the U.N.-backed route near Oman after Iran insisted vessels use only the Teheran-approved routes, according to marine data and analytic firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

More than two dozen ships were still transiting the strait’s southern route after the attack, Lloyd’s said Friday.

Lebanon and Israel make a step toward peace

Ambassadors from Israel and Lebanon announced an agreement Friday described as a step toward peace following months of conflict between Israeli troops and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Nada Hamadeh, Lebanon’s ambassador to the U.S., called the framework a move toward “enabling our people to go back to their land and allowing all Lebanese to live in peace, security, and prosperity.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the plan was a “great achievement” for Israel.

“The most important thing, first and foremost, is that Israel will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon,” he said, adding that they will stay until Hezbollah is disarmed and no longer poses a threat to Israel.

NYC rent freeze could push free market rents higher and juice the purchase market


John Walkup (pictured top), co-founder of UrbanDigs, a real estate data analytics company focused on the New York City market, said the vote is beneficial for the tenants it covers, but the overall positive impact is limited.

“I don’t think it does much, unfortunately, to solve the housing affordability problem at large,” Walkup told Mortgage Professional America. “The broader affordability issue is still, in my opinion, a structural mismatch between supply and demand. Did this increase supply? And the answer is no. So while this is helpful on the affordability issue for the tenants, it does not increase supply. So it’s not really a long-term affordability solution.”

A rental market divided

Walkup said the vote creates a divided dynamic in the city’s rental market. Landlords with rent-stabilized units face frozen income against rising operating costs, with no mechanism to recover the difference.

“If you’re planning on investing here, where are you going to put your money? In the free market,” he said. “Is there a lot of building happening? No. So the prices for the free market one are probably going to be the beneficiaries of this.”

Stabilized tenants have little reason to move now that their rents are locked, Walkup said. That removes supply from the free market, since fewer people cycling out of stabilized apartments means fewer available units for those renting at market rate.

OpenAI agrees to stagger rollout of its most powerful model to only Trump-approved customers



OpenAI is staggering the rollout of its newest and most powerful AI model after a request from the Trump administration. To get access to the new model, customers must first be cleared by the U.S. government, the company said on Friday.

The model, called GPT-5.6 Sol, is the flagship in a new tier of more advanced models that includes a more efficient model called Terra and its cheaper cousin Luna. OpenAI says that Sol is its strongest model yet, able to complete 50% of long-running professional tasks and tops all previous OpenAI models on coding capabilities. OpenAI said it hopes to make all three generally available in the coming weeks.

The Information first reported that the Trump administration asks OpenAI to stagger release of the new model over security concerns.

The move represents a broader shift in how the U.S. government is approaching frontier AI. Advanced cyber capabilities displayed by Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s GPT-cyber have caused concern in Washington. By limiting access to the government is attempting to ensure that those capabilities don’t end up in the hands of bad actors or hostile nation-states

It is also the second time in a month that a frontier lab’s best model has been held back from general release over capability concerns. In early June, the Commerce Department issued export controls on Anthropic that forced the lab to cut off foreign access to two of its top models, citing national security concerns. Anthropic disputed the order, but was left with no choice but to pull the models offline.

Earlier this month, Trump also signed an executive order directing federal agencies to establish a framework under which AI companies could voluntarily provide the government with early access to powerful new models for up to 30 days before broader release. 

OpenAI describes its own situation as voluntary, in contrast to Anthropic’s situation.

“As part of our ongoing engagement with the U.S. government, we previewed our plans and the models’ capabilities ahead of today’s launch. At their request, we are starting with a limited preview for a small group of trusted partners whose participation has been shared with the government,” the company said in a blog post. 

However, the company also said it was not in favour of this kind of government access process becoming the “long-term default.”

We are taking this short-term step because we believe it is the strongest path to broader availability in the coming weeks,” the company wrote, adding it was working with the Administration to develop the cyber Executive Order framework and a “repeatable process for future model releases.”

Capability concerns

OpenAI emphasized that Sol made its strongest gains in cybersecurity, specifically vulnerability and exploitation. There will be two new modes: “max,” and “ultra,” which will allow the model to reason longer and coordinate agents for specific tasks. On a key cybersecurity benchmark, OpenAI previously said the model was “competitive with” Anthropic’s Mythos. GPT-5.6 Sol uses approximately one third of the tokens used by Mythos but appears to lag slightly behind Mythos 5, a slightly more capable model from Anthropic.

OpenAI is pairing the release with what it calls its most extensive safeguards to date, and says that the model preview will police its own use. For higher-risk cases, the company says a larger model will review the conversation and could withhold responding if it’s judged to violate policy. 

It said that, despite the government gating, Sol did not cross the “Cyber Critical” threshold in its “Preparedness Framework”: in tests with Firefox and Chrome, it found the seeds of an exploit but did not produce a working one. OpenAI said it had spent 700,000 GPU hours hacking itself to try to identify vulnerabilities, and humans will conduct two more weeks of the tests before launch.

The limited rollout is a transitional period, and linked to President Trump’s June 2 executive order that directed agencies to build a framework for vetting models before release, according to OpenAI. Since that framework doesn’t exist yet, OpenAI says it conducted a phased rollout at the government’s request. 

The initial users are customers who have been approved by the US government, with the list expanding next week, according to OpenAI. The company said that the process looks like OpenAI sharing names and the government giving feedback. 

Sol is priced at $5 per million input tokens and $30 per million output tokens, compared to Terra at $2.50 and $15, respectively, and Luna at $1 and $6. 

An improvised licensing regime 

The recent steps toward any kind of attempt to regulate AI also represents a striking reversal for an administration that, on its first day in office, had rescinded a Biden-era requirement for AI companies to submit safety tests to the government, calling it overly burdensome.

However, critics have argued that, by pursuing an ad-hoc approach to containing the risks, what is emerging looks less like a coherent regulatory system and more like an improvised licensing regime. Jonathan Iwry, a fellow at the Wharton Accountable AI Lab, previously told Fortune that the government is “repurposing existing legal authorities into what is effectively a backdoor licensing regime.”

Dean Ball, a former Trump administration AI adviser who has since become a vocal critic of its recent decisions, argued that since Mythos, the United States has had an “informal” licensing regime for AI, “with no consistent rules or firm boundaries on state power or public transparency.”

Critics warn that an informal system, with no published criteria or appeal process, opens the door to discrimination—giving the government unchecked power to decide which companies get access to the market and which do not, with no legal recourse for those on the wrong side of that decision.

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Meta and Microsoft Look Cheap. But What If the Bears Are Right?


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Neil Rozenbaum has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Neil is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

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Are Mortgage Rates Finally Poised to Start Falling Again?


A while back I noted that mortgage rates were trending higher.

This was after a long period of trending lower. It was effectively a switch in direction.

And a notable one because we were seeing lower and lower interest rates before an abrupt shift higher, driven by the unexpected strikes in the Middle East.

Now that that seems to be partially resolved, bond yields (and mortgage rates) are finally drifting lower.

Could it be the start of a bigger move back toward the lows seen in early 2026?

Is the Mortgage Rate Trend Our Friend Again?

After a good day for bonds yesterday, they extended their move today on the back of a PCE inflation report that came in as forecast.

While the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge hit its highest level since late 2023 (incidentally when the 30-year fixed also peaked around 8%), it was in line with the Dow Jones consensus.

And given the Middle East accord and rapidly falling oil prices, it seems investors aren’t so concerned with inflation as they were a week or a month ago.

This has pushed 10-year bond yields lower, from a recent peak of 4.66% in mid-May to around 4.38% today.

In other words, yields are about 30 basis points lower than they were a month ago and could continue to move lower as oil prices ease.

Lower oil prices will assuage inflation concerns in the process and arguably get us back on track to where we were before the conflict began.

That’s perhaps the rationale for why mortgage rates are getting better, finally.

The big question is if they have can continue to rally over time and avoid any setbacks.

And if they can make a complete move back to those levels seen pre-war at the end of February.

Can Bond Yields (and Mortgage Rates) Fall Back to Pre-War Levels

We already have oil prices back at about pre-war levels. So why not bond yields?

If the move the past few months was mainly about the war and rising oil prices, shouldn’t bond yields come back down too?

It’s logical, though as we know these things always take time to materialize.

The old adage elevator up, stairs down comes to mind. Mortgage lenders are quick to raise rates and slow to drop them.

And you can’t really blame them. But if we drop another 30-odd basis points, we’ll be back to those levels from February.

So in a sense we are halfway there and if we can keep the momentum, we can return to a sub-6% 30-year fixed.

The 10-year bond yield was around 4% when the 30-year fixed was able to muster a 5-handle, albeit briefly.

That’s basically where we need to get to if we want mortgage rates starting in the 5s again.

It’s possible, but likely won’t happen too quickly given the caution at the moment regarding possible rate hikes, frothy tech stock valuations, and even a potential setback in the Middle East.

In the meantime, be happy mortgage rates didn’t return to 7% due to an even more protracted conflict with Iran.

Things could have actually been a lot worse.

Colin Robertson
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