Forecasting economic recessions remains a fundamental challenge in macroeconomic research and investment decision-making. Financial markets often signal recessions before economic data visibly deteriorate, making indicators such as yield spreads and credit spreads valuable early-warning tools. However, market-based indicators can also generate costly false alarms when financial conditions reflect temporary shocks rather than sustained economic weakness.

To capture both market expectations and underlying economic conditions, we develop a framework that integrates financial indicators with a broad set of macroeconomic variables. By integrating financial indicators with measures of consumption, housing, labor markets, production, and financial health, our framework improves explanatory power from 0.38 to 0.54 and increases classification accuracy from 84% to 89%, while reducing false recession signals. Our analysis suggests that recession forecasts become substantially more reliable when financial market signals are combined with measures of real economic activity.

In the United States, recession dates are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee, which evaluates a broad range of economic indicators to assess the depth, duration, and diffusion of economic downturns.

While widely regarded as the definitive record of business cycles, the NBER process is inherently backward-looking. Historically, official recession announcements have been delayed by four- to twenty-one months, with an average lag of approximately eleven months (see Exhibit 1).

By the time a recession is officially identified, markets and economic conditions have often already adjusted, highlighting the need for forward-looking models that can assess recession risk over investor-relevant horizons.

Deandra McDonald graduated from college, took her first job as a lab technician making $28,000 a year, and got her first rent increase notification shortly after. That was all it took. She decided she was done being at a landlord’s mercy and started trying to buy a property. 

The first lender denied her outright. She had $5,000 in credit card debt, minimal savings, and no wiggle room. So she got a second job bartending, a third job lifeguarding, and a fourth job teaching swim lessons. 

For 18 months, Deandra cut every expense she could, including internet and cable, paid off the debt, and saved $3,500. That got her approved for an $85,000 loan and into her first property. She hasn’t looked back since. 

Here’s how she built from there.

You got denied the first time and had almost nothing saved. How did you finally get into your first deal?

I had to go back to that lender’s rejection list and work through it, line by line. I couldn’t make more money overnight, so I had to do two things: pay down my credit card debt and save more. 

I took on four jobs and cut everything I could. After 18 months, I had cleared the debt and saved $3,500, which was enough to qualify for an $85,000 loan. 

What I wish I had done was look up down payment assistance programs first. I would have qualified easily. There are programs that will cover 20% down on a multifamily if you just agree to live there for five years. I learned that too late, but I tell everyone now: Google what’s available in your ZIP code before you spend 18 months grinding it out the hard way.

What’s the move for someone who genuinely has no money and no experience?

Before we talk about creative financing, I always ask why you don’t have any money. Because whatever habits got you there, you’re going to repeat them in real estate. If you overspend in regular life, you’ll overspend on a flip. If you like to bet it all, you’ll buy the property with the foundation problem and convince yourself it’s just cosmetic. 

So fix the habits first. Then house hack. It is always the right first move. It lowers your cost of living, locks in your housing expense so no landlord can raise it on you, and puts you in a position to build equity and experience at the same time.

I just bought my dream home, and it has a full apartment in the basement, because house hacking never stops making sense.

You mentioned partnering as another path in. How do you actually make that work when you have nothing to bring to the table?

You have to be honest with yourself about what you’re offering. Nobody with money is going to hand you equity because you found a listing on Zillow. But if you’re willing to live in the property, manage it, fix things, and be present every single day, that is something real you can offer. 

I started hiring live-in handymen for my larger multifamily buildings and splitting profits with them instead of just paying a wage. That arrangement works because they’re invested. They hear the dog that’s not supposed to be there. They notice when something breaks before it becomes expensive.

If you want a partner with capital, show them for two or three years what you do with a smaller property first. Let them watch you operate before you ask them to write a check.

How do you think about how much money someone actually needs to get started responsibly?

Before anything else, you need enough to cover the most expensive repair that insurance will not pay for. On a condo, that might be $3,000 for a mini-split. On a quadplex with an old roof and an aging furnace, that number is a lot higher. Figure out your worst-case scenario, and make sure you can cover it without calling your partner in the first month. 

Beyond that, if you have good credit, a 0% intro APR business credit card gives you real financial runway for furnishings or repairs without paying interest for 12 to 18 months. That only works if you have the discipline to pay it off. But if you do, it is essentially free financing, and it has been one of the most useful tools I have found for closing the gap between what you have and what the deal needs.

What do you know now that you wish someone had told you at the beginning?

The biggest expense most people never think about is taxes, not rent. Once I started doing joint ventures and seller financing, I realized how much leverage you have when you own property outright and how much money you leave on the table when you don’t understand your tax position. 

I’ve been collecting 8% and 10% checks on seller-financed deals I no longer have to manage. That’s money coming in while I sleep. You don’t need to start there, but you need to know that’s where this goes if you stay patient and keep building. 

Commit to seven to 10 years. That’s the whole strategy.