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Why Growth Stalls After Early Success

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John Jantsch (00:01.058)

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast. This is John Jantsch and I’m going to do a solo show today. That’s right, just me, no guess. I want to talk about some things that…

You know, I can say that it’s been brewing recently, but you know, in hindsight, when I look back, it’s probably something that I’ve recognized over 20 years or so. And here’s the question I’m going to start with. Why do smart businesses, smart business owners keep hitting the same ceiling? That’s what I want to talk about today. I feel very qualified to talk about this because I’m a founder. I’ve experienced some of the same things I’m going to talk about today. And I think that that

Quite frankly, it’s helped me recognize why this is happening. So we work with a lot of founder led businesses and what we’ve typically found is they don’t have a very well developed strategy. I mean, we’ve built almost our entire practice on the idea of strategy before tactics and many of the clients come to us for a strategy first type of engagement. And while in every case,

They are helped. have better thoughts. They have better priorities. They have better tactics. One of the things that I’ve found is that even as the business grows, many times they come up against the same hurdle time and time again. A lot of it’s because the founders patterns have stayed the same. How they view the business, how they view delegating, how they view growth.

their fears. These are some of the things that I think really end up holding a business back so that it ultimately can’t necessarily change, even though we’ve installed a better marketing approach in many cases. what I’ve seen, here’s some of the things I’ve seen. Tell me if any of these apply to you. The founder is still very involved in every, or at least many decisions. The team,

John Jantsch (02:11.946)

if they’ve assembled one, kind of waits around for like, what do we do next rather than owning things? Delegation, while it’s a good idea, every quarter I’m going to really commit to it, never really sticks. There’s not a lot of accountability or it’s fuzzy as far as who’s going to do what. And so it’s like the business keeps circling around the same issues time and time again. So

I’m wondering, are you feeling that bottleneck? Do any of these symptoms or ideas sound familiar to you? And what’s it costing? I guess that’s the next question too. I know that when we have worked with a client, in some cases, when we can’t get past this issue, the strategy, no matter how good it is, it really stalls or gets undermined at least. Alignment that.

that hopefully sometimes comes out of this strategy engagement falls. People get hesitant. Growth certainly slows as well. what’s the solution? Well, one of the things that we have added, and we’re going to do it as a standalone, frankly, but certainly as part of or the front end of any strategy engagement that we do, is to add an element that we’re calling the Founder’s Day.

The idea behind this is to have a very intense guided, facilitated workshop, if you will, with the founder of the business before we ever start talking about their ideal client and their core message. Because I think real change, of course, has to start with that founder. And really before the business can transform, mean, a lot of times we have to teach them what it is that we’re going to install, but then also how we’re going to reinforce it.

Here’s what it is. It’s a structured, facilitated experience focused on the founder’s change. It’s not therapy, although maybe sometimes. It’s not really coaching or certainly not coaching theater that you sometimes see out there. It’s not a strategy session. It’s a process designed to really surface the patterns, the assumptions, the behaviors really that are actually limiting and holding back growth. the goal

John Jantsch (04:39.15)

to that day or to that session or that element, it’s not really just insight. mean, it’s to create a shift that can support the real organizational change that is going to come from us installing strategy first, installing a marketing operating system. So.

It’s going to begin with business goals. Again, that’s another thing I think is I’ve learned the hard way, but I think it’s sort of odd that a lot of marketing folks get hired to do marketing plans, to do marketing strategy, to do marketing tactics. And there really hasn’t been much discussion, if at all, about what the goals of the organization are, what the goals of the business are. And we really need to tie those two things together. So we’re going to start there, really get very clear on what the company wants.

before we start talking about how the founder is going to change in order to get there. And then of course how marketing is going to eventually support that. So.

John Jantsch (05:45.516)

we’re going to move, I think we’re going to ask you to make some honest reflection to help move you out of the way of growth. I know that sounds really harsh and I can say it again. I think I could say it because frankly, I’ve lived it myself. In many cases, we have to really change the behaviors that have been in the way and have been quite frankly become part of the culture. And the only way you can change them is to recognize that they exist. So we’re gonna walk you through

facilitate a day, frankly, of helping you understand what those, not only what the goals for the business are, we’re going to start there, but then we’re going to actually talk about what are the constraints, what’s holding you back, what has held you back. And it’s going to, in many cases, going to take some vulnerabilities, some brutal honesty. I know that, you know, when I’m sort of challenged on being the issue, being the problem, you know, it’s really

human nature to actually respond in a way that is defensive. And I think that we all know if you’ve been doing this at any time at all, I mean, that obviously is not helpful for the business itself. So, and what’s so amazing is what got you here is that you have the desire, you have the smarts, you have the really the drive to build that business.

But what we’ve discovered, especially when a business has grown to a certain level, one to $20 million, I mean, clearly something is going right. But what we have found is that that’s where they kind of bump up against the ceiling of sorts. And it’s that kind of old cliche of what got you here won’t get you there, won’t get you to the next level. So understanding what the next level is, and then also understanding, or at least having a guided

facilitation around, you know, why some of these patterns keep happening, what’s going to change, how are going to commit to change too? It’s not really supposed to be just a nice day, you know, where everybody sits around and talks about their feelings. It is going to be a day where you tie what you want to do to how you’re going to lead and to really come up with a personal change plan for how you’re going to lead.

John Jantsch (08:10.988)

that we believe is the thing that’s going to kind of unleash you going to the next level. Now there are many elements, obviously, in the execution, in strategy first, in installing the marketing operating system. But what we’ve discovered is this is the key to really unlocking a true transformation in the business and making it stick. Many of us have experienced temporary experiences, temporary transformations.

The key to this is really, this is what’s going to make it stick. So this is something that we have just introduced and we’re gonna start offering as a standalone product, if you will, or experience. However, I’ve got an opportunity for you to experience it free of charge. March 31st through April 2nd, we are going to hold an event that we are calling Future Proofing, your how to future proof your marketing agency. It is targeting.

agencies and consultants in this particular case, because that’s a market that we serve. And so we are going to offer three days. The first day is going to be this founder day. I’m going to walk people through it. You’re going to go away with a workbook. You’re going to go away with lots of questions. It’s going to be a group setting. So it’s certainly not going to be the intimate one-on-one session that that might and probably needs to happen. But we want people to experience this is part of duct tape marketing.

This is part of our marketing system now. The second day, and what we’re going to do is one hour a day. We’re going to give you homework. We’re going to give you workbooks. You’re going to really, we’re calling it a working experience. It’s not a workshop. It’s not a webinar. So day two is going to be thinking in terms of how do we move from selling tactics to selling transformation, to delivering transformation for our clients? Because I think that is

the future. That is how we’re going to future proof our business. And then day three, we are actually going to introduce attendees to something we call the marketing operating system. It is in my estimation, it is the way that you can make yourself really impervious to what’s going on with AI. It is something that AI can’t replicate and you are going to be in the driver’s seat with it. I’m not suggesting we’re not going to use AI.

John Jantsch (10:32.878)

going to use AI in all the ways that it is meant to be used and all the ways that are practical and all the ways that deliver value. But if all you’re doing is delivering value using AI tools, well, you’re going to be replaced by that very tool. But if you actually have a framework and a system that we call the marketing operating system, AI can’t produce that. Now it can help you deliver it, but you are going to make future proof your practice. So three days.

I will, we will certainly be promoting this in other ways. But if you’re interested, want to go sign up for free? It is dtm.world slash future. That’s dtm like duct tape marketing dot world slash future. And I believe it could be one of the most eyeopening experiences that you can have, particularly if you’re one of those people out there thinking, am I going to get replaced by AI?

Is the agency world changing? Do I need a new model? I think we’re going to introduce you to some ideas that might answer some of those questions for you. So last time, March 31st through April 2nd, three days in a row, hour a day, plus you’re going to get homework and workbooks, dtm.world slash future. And if nothing else, I think the experience of going through the founder day of asking some deeper questions than maybe what do need to do today?

might be well worth the time invested. So that’s it for today. Hopefully we’ll see you one of these days soon out there on the road.

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The Fed Didn't Cut Rates. Here's What That Means for Your Money Now

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The Fed Didn't Cut Rates. Here's What That Means for Your Money Now

Image source: Getty Images

As expected, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking its second straight pause.

But the backdrop has changed fast. Inflation is still stubborn, energy prices are rising, and the job market just showed signs of cracking.

And that likely means higher borrowing costs are sticking around longer than many people hoped.

Why the Fed stayed put

Inflation was already running hotter than expected before the recent spike in energy prices. On top of that, new uncertainty around global events has made it harder for policymakers to feel confident about cutting rates.

The Fed doesn’t want to cut too early and risk reigniting inflation.

Inflation still isn’t cooperating

One of the biggest signals came from wholesale inflation.

The producer price index rose 3.4% in February from a year earlier, the largest increase in a year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s not the direction the Fed wants to see when it’s considering rate cuts.

And that was before energy prices jumped.

When inflation looks like it could accelerate again, the Fed tends to stay cautious.

The job market just flashed a warning sign

The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a sharp miss compared to expectations for job growth. That’s the kind of data that would normally push the Fed toward cutting rates.

But now the Fed has a tougher balancing act.

Lower rates could support the economy. But they could also make inflation worse. Right now, inflation risk is winning that debate.

What this means for your money

Credit card rates are staying high

If you carry a balance, this decision doesn’t help. Credit card APRs move with broader interest rates, and those rates aren’t coming down yet. That means interest charges stay expensive. If you need breathing room, some balance transfer credit cards can give people almost two years of no interest payments. Check out the top balance transfer cards available now.

Loan rates aren’t falling anytime soon

Auto loans, personal loans, and other borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated. If you were waiting for a meaningful drop before taking out that personal loan or pulling the trigger on a new car, you may be waiting longer.

Savings rates are still solid, for now

The flip side is that higher rates are still good for savers. High-yield savings accounts and money market accounts are still offering competitive yields compared to traditional banks. See this list of savings accounts with the top APYs to help your money grow.

Where this leaves things

The Fed didn’t surprise anyone this afternoon. Lower rates are still possible. They just don’t look as close as they once might have.

And until that changes, borrowing stays expensive, saving stays relatively rewarding, and the smartest move is to plan like rates aren’t dropping anytime soon.

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Best 12-Month CD Rates for March 18, 2026: Up to 4.15%

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Best 12-Month CD Rates for March 18, 2026: Up to 4.15%


Certificates of deposit (CDs) remain one of the most reliable short-term savings tools, especially for those seeking guaranteed returns as rates fall. As of March 18, 2026, the best 12-month CD rates reach up to 4.15% APY (annual percentage yield), with many banks and credit unions still offering yields far above the national average of 1.52%, according to the FDIC. 

Over the last several weeks, many banks and credit unions have been raising their 12-month CD rate.

Now might be the best time to lock in a guaranteed rate. If you’re looking to earn a predictable return over the next year, these are the best CD rates available today.

💰 Today’s Best 12-Month CD Rates At a Glance

Here are the best bank and credit union savings accounts rates today:

Bank or Credit Union

Top APY

Minimum Deposit

Credit One Bank

4.15%

$100,000

Bank of Utah

3.85%

$1,000

Live Oak Bank

3.80%

$2,500

Navy Federal Credit Union

3.80%

$1,000

Alliant Credit Union

3.80%

$1,000

1. Credit One Bank – Credit One Bank is offering a jumbo CD at 4.15% APY, but it does require a $100,000 minimum deposit to open.

2. Bank of Utah – Bank of Utah is currently offering a 12-month CD at 3.85% APY with just a $1,000 minimum deposit.

3. Live Oak Bank – Live Oak Bank is currently offering a 12-month CD at 3.80% APY with a $2,500 minimum to open. Read more about Live Oak Bank here.

4. Navy Federal Credit Union – Navy Federal CU is currently offering a regular 12-month share certificate with just a $1,000 minimum at 3.75% APY. If you have $100,000, you can get the jumbo share certificate for 3.80% APY. Read our full Navy Federal Credit Union review here.

5. Alliant Credit Union – Alliant Credit Union offers short term and long term CDs with competitive APYs. Right now you can get 3.75% APY on a 12-month CD option! And you can even earn up to 3.80% APY on a Jumbo CD. Read our full Alliant Credit Union Review.

You can find a full list of the best 12-month CDs here >>

How 12-Month CDs Work

A 12-month certificate of deposit pays a fixed interest rate for one year in exchange for keeping your money on deposit until maturity. If you withdraw early, the bank charges a penalty – typically 90 days of interest.

CDs appeal to savers who prefer guaranteed, short-term returns. While high-yield savings accounts offer flexibility, CDs can secure a higher fixed return for a set period, which can be helpful if rates are expected to decline.

For example, a $25,000 CD at 4.00% APY would earn roughly $1,000 in one year, compared with about $387 based on today’s national average 12-month CD rate.

What To Know Before Opening A CD

Certificates of deposit operate differently than savings accounts. Make sure you understand what you’re getting:

  • Short-Term Goals: Ideal for saving toward tuition, a wedding, or a home down payment within a year.
  • Rate Protection: A CD locks your APY, so you’re insulated from rate cuts.
  • Ladder Strategy: Pair a 12-month CD with longer terms (24- or 36-month) to capture higher rates while maintaining liquidity.
  • Safety:
    FDIC or NCUA insurance protects up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution.

Before opening an account, make sure you understand all the terms:

  • Minimum Deposit: Some banks require $1,000 or more to open.
  • Withdrawal Terms: Review penalties before committing funds.
  • Renewal Policy: Many CDs automatically renew at maturity unless you opt out.
  • Rate Guarantees: Confirm whether your rate is locked at the time of application or funding.
  • Online Access: Ensure the bank allows easy transfers and e-statements.

More CD Options

Check out the table below for more CD options:

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How We Track And Verify Rates

At The College Investor, our editorial team reviews CD rates daily from more than 30 banks and credit unions nationwide. We confirm every APY directly from official rate disclosures and regulatory filings.

Only FDIC- or NCUA-insured institutions available to U.S. consumers are included.

Our rankings are editorially independent – compensation does not influence placement. While we may earn a referral fee when you open an account through some links, our reviews and recommendations are based solely on yield, accessibility, and overall customer experience.

FAQs

Are 12-month CDs safe?

Yes. CDs are federally insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution.

Can I withdraw my money early?

Yes, but you’ll forfeit some interest, typically three months’ worth.

Are CD earnings taxable?

Yes. Interest earned is subject to federal income tax, and in some states, state tax.

What happens when a CD matures?

You’ll usually have a 7- to 10-day grace period to withdraw or renew your funds.

Is now a good time to open a CD?

Rates remain near their cycle highs, so locking in a short-term CD can make sense before potential cuts.

Editor: Colin Graves

Reviewed by: Richelle Hawley

The post Best 12-Month CD Rates for March 18, 2026: Up to 4.15% appeared first on The College Investor.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins Comments On Regulation Of Crypto As Commission Moves On Updated Rules

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SEC Chairman Paul Atkins Comments On Regulation Of Crypto As Commission Moves On Updated Rules


When crypto first hit the scene, global regulators were caught like deer in the headlights, confused and uncertain how to manage digital assets. Rules were effectively drawn from laws enacted before the internet was a dream, and in the US, the touchstone, the Howey Test on securities, provided a confusing path to regulation.

Where the first Trump Administration struggled to adapt (but made an effort), the Biden Administration took a more detrimental approach by deeming all crypto bad, toying with innovators, telling them to come in and discuss, while asking them to register (which they couldn’t do), presenting an SEC as a dystopian regulatory debacle that can only be described as incompetent.

Today, during Trump Part 2, things are different: the SEC is tackling a tall challenge but embracing the project, understanding that digital assets are the future. While Congress has failed to pass a law, the CLARITY Act (crypto market infrastructure legislation) to provide regulatory coherence, the SEC is marching forward, conducting public meetings, asking for feedback, and providing guidance that, in the end, will emerge as the most significant change to securities law since the 33 Act. It will also provide guidance to the rest of the world.

This week, the SEC published guidance on crypto assets.

“After more than a decade of uncertainty, this interpretation will provide market participants with a clear understanding of how the Commission treats crypto assets,” said SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins.

Addressing the DC Blockchain Summit, Atkins declared that after the “SEC’s persistent failure to provide clarity,” they are implementing a token taxonomy and investment contract interpretation.

The Chairman explained that they established four asset categories that are not deemed securities: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, and payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.

“We are not the Securities and Everything Commission,” stated Atkins as he highlighted that their mission is to regulate securities.


We are not the Securities and Everything Commission, stated Atkins

Click to Share

While Congress continues to dither, Atkins said that future proofing digital assets from another rogue regime requires legislation.

“I strongly support the ongoing bipartisan efforts on Capitol Hill to establish a durable framework for these markets.”

The Chairman Atkin’s vision for “Regulation Crypto Assets”  was shared as follows:

  • A fit-for-purpose “startup exemption,” which would be a time-limited registration exemption for offerings of investment contracts involving certain crypto assets.
  • The Commission could consider a “fundraising exemption,” a new offering exemption for investment contracts involving certain crypto assets. Entrepreneurs could raise up to a defined amount while providing principles based disclosure.
  • The Commission to consider an “investment contract safe harbor” from the definition of “security” for certain crypto assets. This safe harbor could apply once the issuer has completed or otherwise permanently ceased all essential managerial efforts that it represented or promised to engage in under the investment contract.

As many questions remain about crypto assets, which can have diverse characteristics, Chairman Atkins stated on CNBC today that they will provide various examples to help issuers and lawyers pursue offerings with certainty.

A digital asset sandbox is in the queue as well.

Atkins tipped his hat to Commissioner Hester Peirce, the trailblazer in regard to championing clarity on digital assets and the leader of the SEC Crypto Task Force. “We would not be here today but for your efforts,” stated Atkins. Peirce proposed a safe harbor for crypto years ago.

 

A public release of the Commission’s proposal is forthcoming and will seek comments from interested parties.

While the path to digital asset regulation has been too long and excessively difficult, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Crypto innovation is growing in the US and, as the Administration desires, the US is on a path to lead the world in the future of finance.

 



Refinance boom stalls as rate shock jolts mortgage market into retreat

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Purchase applications edged up roughly 1% and stood about 12% higher than the same week in 2025.

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher, driven by increasing Treasury yields as the conflict in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, along with the risk of a broader inflationary shock. Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30‑year fixed rate rising to 6.30 percent, the highest rate since December 2025,” said Joel Kan, MBA vice president and deputy chief economist.

“Rates were around 20 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago and this caused a reversal in refinance activity, particularly for conventional refinance applications, which decreased 27 percent over the week. Government refinances also declined but by 5 percent, as FHA rates have not increased quite as rapidly.”

Refinance share narrows as rates spike

The refinance share of activity fell to 52.3% of total applications from 57.8% the prior week, while adjustable‑rate mortgages accounted for 8% of volume.

Kan said purchase demand proved more stable: “Purchase applications remained steady despite the higher rates, with conventional purchase applications unchanged and growth in both FHA and VA segments. Overall purchase applications remained ahead of last year’s pace, supported by higher inventory and slowing home‑price growth in many markets.”

The world’s EVs were already replacing 70% of Iran’s oil exports. The war just made that matter

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The world’s EVs were already replacing 70% of Iran’s oil exports. The war just made that matter



The war in Iran has already transformed the world’s energy map. It might yet redraw America’s auto market.

Now in its third week, the U.S. and Israeli military campaign in Iran has escalated to involve targets across the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that serves as the world’s most critical fossil fuel chokepoint. The war has effectively closed the oil tanker traffic that used to navigate the strait, which on a normal day carries up to 20% of the world’s traded petroleum.

Fuel costs worldwide have soared as a result. Average gas prices in the U.S. are now $3.79 a gallon, up from $2.92 a month ago, reminding drivers of the 2022 energy shortage and even of the devastating oil shocks of the 1970s.

But unlike during those crises, the world now possesses a massive, rapidly scaling, and for the most part readily available asset to soften the blow: the electric vehicle.

The global EV fleet has been growing for years, gradually chipping away at the world’s oil consumption as drivers turn to charging ports instead of gas stations. Last year, EVs worldwide avoided the consumption of 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, according to a report published Wednesday by Ember, an independent energy think tank based in the U.K. That’s roughly 70% of the 2.4 million barrels Iran exported daily through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025.

While the crisis has sent global oil prices soaring, the declining need for petroleum in transportation is providing a critical cushion in some countries. And the longer fuel prices remain elevated, the more attractive EVs become to buyers.

“Oil is a particularly tricky resource to replace,” Daan Walter, a researcher at Ember and the report’s lead author, told Fortune. “It has been for 125 years now, except for the past five or six years, when we’ve had this new competitive lever in electric vehicles.”

Electrifying demand

In the U.S., EV purchases hit a wall over the past few months as President Donald Trump rescinded many of the subsidies and incentives the Biden administration had installed to facilitate the transport sector’s electrification. Those measures mostly expired in September, and EV sales for the year ended up falling by 2%.

But the Iran conflict has sparked a revival of consumer interest. Search traffic for EVs during the first week of the conflict jumped 20%, according to CarEdge, a car shopping platform, with interest in popular models like the Tesla Model Y and Chevrolet Equinox nearly doubling.

For now, the conflict in Iran and higher gasoline prices are likely to only influence drivers who were already in the market for a new car, Elaine Buckberg, a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Salata Center for Climate and Sustainability and a former chief economist for General Motors, told Fortune.

But that could change if prices stay high for much longer. “Gasoline prices are one of the biggest elements of people’s perception of inflation because you buy it so regularly,” Buckberg said. “It takes three to six months of persistently higher prices before people say, ‘Maybe I should go out and switch cars to one that’s more fuel efficient, including an EV.’”

EV drivers outside the U.S. already know how much they might be able to save. In the U.K., EV drivers saved an average of £870 ($1,162) a year by charging their cars instead of fueling up, according to an analysis published last week by the nonprofit Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit. But if oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, as they have for most of the conflict, those annual savings could jump to £1,000 ($1,336).

In the U.S., the costs of owning and charging an EV depend on several factors, including local electricity prices and whether drivers can charge their cars at home. And for now, buying an electric car tends to be more expensive than buying a gas-powered one, although prices are falling due to greater competition and more choices of lower-priced models.

But EV drivers are likely to be rewarded over the course of their car’s lifetime—the New York Times found last year that driving 100 miles in a home-charged EV costs on average a little more than $5, while the same distance in a standard gas-powered car costs on average $12.80.

Nowhere to hide

The Trump administration has framed the pain Americans are feeling at the pump as a short-term problem, and claimed that the U.S. is insulated from the oil crisis because it is a large producer in its own right. But being a net exporter of oil does little to shield the U.S. from volatility, according to Ember’s Walter.

“In some ways, no one is safe,” he said. “Even if you live between a gas well and a refinery, even then your prices are going up.”

Oil is a global commodity, and unless a government enacts export bans, a barrel of oil produced in the U.S. will go to whoever pays the most wherever they are, Walter said. That means American consumers remain tethered to the same price volatility as the rest of the world, regardless of how much crude is pumped from U.S. soil. In Texas, for example, one of the world’s largest oil-exporting regions, gasoline prices have risen 25% since the war began, faster than in oil-importing nations like the U.K. and France during the same period, Walter said.

Because volatile gasoline prices have such a significant bearing on consumer sentiment, experts have long argued that transportation reliant on locally generated electricity can be an economic and political hedge.

“A shift towards EV basically would protect the economy from downside,” Buckberg said. “That link from oil geopolitics to oil prices to gasoline prices could be broken.”

The last time a global geopolitical shock sparked an energy crisis was in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global oil and gas markets into a frenzy. A lot has changed since then to make EVs a more palatable option as gasoline prices rise, Buckberg said. For one, the world is no longer limited by a microchip shortage that strained EV manufacturing in the early 2020s. 

But electric and hybrid vehicles have also become more affordable and accessible to a wider variety of consumers, particularly in emerging markets in East and Southeast Asia, according to previous Ember research. In China, the world’s biggest EV market, the country’s existing electric car fleet accounts for more than $28 billion a year in avoided oil imports, Ember’s latest report found.

“We’re no longer living in a world of risk-free fossil fuels. We’re living in a world where everything is risky and it now becomes a question of which risks do you want to take,” Walter said. 

Recession odds hit 49% for next 12 months says Moody’s Mark Zandi

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Recession odds hit 49% for next 12 months says Moody’s Mark Zandi


With alarming headlines coming out of the Middle East, economists will be wary of sharing forecasts that might unnecessarily spook consumers or investors. Nonetheless, while Wall Street has remained calm(ish) about the disruption to global oil and energy supplies, Moody’s Mark Zandi warns that the longer-term macroeconomic picture has taken a turn for the worse.

Zandi shared that, even prior to the U.S. and Israel launching strikes on Iran, recession odds for the economy had crept up to an alarming threshold. The latest reading on Moody’s economic indicator model—for February, prior to the military action—placed odds of a recession at 49% over the next 12 months.

“Behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labor market numbers, but almost all the economic data have turned soft since the end of last year,” Zandi wrote in a note. Indeed, an image Zandi shared of the Moody’s recession indicator shows that historically, it has been fairly accurate. The indicator spiked above a benchmark of 50 in 2020, in 2007, and 2001—all of which were followed by recessions as defined by the Federal Bank of St Louis.

“It isn’t a stretch to expect the indicator to cross the key 50% threshold amid the Iranian conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices,” Zandi continued. “Oil prices are an important variable in the model, and with good reason: every recession since WWII, save the pandemic recession, has been preceded by a spike in oil prices.”

Moody’s recession call is higher compared to many on Wall Street, where most estimates say the likelihood is growing but is perhaps not in 50/50 territory. Indeed, Oxford Economics’s modelling suggests that oil prices would have to hit $140 a barrel over a two-month period to plunge the world economy into a recession. The strength of the subsequent recovery following a resolution of conflict in the Middle East depends on how quickly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is normalised.

“The rebound in financial markets has been quick following past major military conflicts in the Middle East since the 1990s, but this time it could be more gradual,” noted Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, and Ryan Sweet, chief global economist.

Zandi agrees with the premise, saying higher oil prices won’t level the same amount of economic damage as years prior because production and consumption are better aligned, but added consumers will suffer a significant uptick in the cost of living when they “were already increasingly nervous spenders.”

The Moody’s chief economist said his peers “will be loath to utter the word ‘recession,’” despite evidence to support such a statement, because many were proven wrong when they called a downturn calls over Fed policy a couple of years ago. But Zandi added: “If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid.”

Happier odds

Some investors feel significantly more optimistic about the probability of a recession. Indeed, while economists generally go by the rule that a recession might happen once every five years, if not more frequently, Apollo Investment’s chief economist Torsten Slok suggests economic downturns are becoming less frequent.

“Between recessions, investors should prepare for sector-specific cycles, such as the current downturn in software, where one or two subsectors face distress while the rest of the economy is fine,” Slok wrote in a note published yesterday. “The bottom line is that credit opportunities arise not just during recessions, but also when there are sector-specific cycles during expansions.”

Oxford Economics’ latest Global Risk Survey is similarly more buoyant. The survey, conducted between February 26 and March 11, found there had been a sharp downturn of expectations since the outbreak of the conflict. However, odds of a global recession still stand at a 1-in-6 chance.

The war has driven scepticism over the prospects of the U.S. economy, Oxford notes. Prior to the military action, three-quarters of respondents felt the recent period of U.S. exceptionalism would continue, but that figure fell significantly as the conflict continued, with little more than half the 174 clients surveyed now expecting the U.S. to remain the fastest-growing G7 economy this year.

Indeed, Wall Street is more widely inclined to agree with lower recession odds. David Mericle of Goldman Sachs wrote this week that the bank’s outlook odds had increased, up by 5 percentage points to 25%, while JP Morgan predicted at the end of last year that the likelihood of a 2026 recession was 35%.

The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what’s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here.

Masters of Business Administration MBA – Course Modules – University of Nottingham

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Masters of Business Administration MBA – Course Modules – University of Nottingham



#studyabroad #Universityofnottingham #studyinuk #Masters #MBA #mastersofbusinessadministration #businessadministration #Coursemodules #Nottingham #UK #UKlife #Indianstudents

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We all know that MBA provides an excellent platform for career enhancement, career change, or entrepreneurial activities for several years. In addition, this MBA program introduced by the University of Nottingham also helps the students to build on their management skills and experience which eventually boosts up the global career prospects and earning potential of the students. It’s a good decision to make a career in this field because the business and leadership skills improvise the decision-making abilities of the students which shape them into successful future leaders.

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The Georgian, a Santa Monica Landmark, Joins The Unbound Collection by Hyatt

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The Georgian, a Santa Monica Landmark, Joins The Unbound Collection by Hyatt


The Georgian Joins The Unbound Collection by Hyatt

Hyatt today announced that The Georgian, a storied oceanfront hotel on Ocean Avenue in Santa Monica, has joined The Unbound Collection by Hyatt.

Perched along the Pacific with its striking façade, The Georgian has been part of Santa Monica’s shoreline story since the 1930s. Following a careful restoration completed in 2023 by owner and operator JB Hotel Group, The Georgian re-emerged as a striking piece of Santa Monica culture. The landmark’s turquoise frontage was meticulously restored to its original hue, art deco plasterwork and moldings were revived, and historic detailing throughout the public spaces was preserved and reinterpreted with restraint. Landscaped terraces and refreshed coastal plantings now frame the ocean-facing outlook.

Check out more images and details below, as shared in Hyatt’s press release.

Rooms & Suites

The Georgian offers 84 guest rooms, including 28 suites, many framed by uninterrupted views of the Pacific. Inside, the spirit of the 1930s lingers in the detailing through curved lines, layered textures and soft coastal light, yet the experience is unmistakably contemporary. In West-facing suites, panoramic ocean vistas stretch from sunrise to dusk, offering guests a front-row seat to Santa Monica’s shifting skies and the gentle setting of Ocean Avenue below.

Dining and Drinks

Dining at The Georgian revives the hotel’s tradition as a social anchor — a place where locals and visitors gather as naturally for morning coffee as for late-evening conversation. The signature restaurant celebrates seasonal Californian produce in an art deco setting; an intimate bar nods to the hotel’s Hollywood-era past with classic cocktails and late-evening energy; and a relaxed café space spills toward Ocean Avenue, inviting both guests and locals from morning through sunset.

The convivial energy throughout the hotel feels both polished and unpretentious — less about spectacle and more about atmosphere: the glow of sunset through the windows, a well-made cocktail and the quiet sense that you are exactly where you should be.

Bookings

For reservations, please contact reservation@thegeorgian.com or book directly at www.thegeorgian.com.

Room rates from $700 per room per night. This is a Category 6 hotel which means that a night will cost you 21,000, 25,000 or 29,000 World of Hyatt points. That is about to change soon though.

– Image credit to Hyatt Hotels – 

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