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How a perilous US rescue mission in Iran nearly went off course




How a perilous US rescue mission in Iran nearly went off course

Conversations with Frank Fabozzi, CFA, Featuring Iro Tasitsiomi, PhD


In this conversation with Frank Fabozzi, CFA, Tasitsiomi explains that sophisticated models add value only when paired with well-defined problems and high-quality data. Echoing Einstein, she argues that models should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. She also shares when advanced machine learning techniques are most effective, particularly for capturing nonlinear relationships, working with unstructured data, or enabling unsupervised discovery.

Key Discussion Points

  • Principle of parsimony: When the simplest model preserves essential insights and helps avoid unnecessary complexity, cost, and risk.
  • Poke the model: Why probing model behavior, especially outside normal conditions, helps investment teams understand potential risks and failure modes.
  • Understand the tools: Why sound judgment about data, assumptions, and model limitations matters more than coding skills, especially for younger analysts building credibility on AI-enabled investment teams.
  • Speak the language: Why successful AI adoption requires both technical rigor and clear communication across investment teams.

See  all episodes 

How Amazon Just Turned Your Smart Speaker Into Its Next Big Opportunity


Smart speakers have become commonplace in your home. Amazon (AMZN 0.38%) was an early mover. The company launched its Alexa voice assistant in 2014 and has built a massive ecosystem with over 600 million Alexa devices worldwide.

About a year ago, Amazon revamped Alexa with artificial intelligence (AI), launching Alexa+, a smarter, more capable version. It may not be obvious yet, but the Alexa+ upgrade has just turned your smart speaker into a monetization engine unlike any other.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Alexa can monetize you in a multitude of ways

Nobody likes it when a salesperson knocks on your door and interrupts your day. Ironically, your smart devices are a sales force that you’ve already invited into your home. Alexa collects data from voice interactions and commands with your devices. It learns about you so that it can further personalize itself to your preferences.

The Alexa+ update paves the way for agentic commerce, where Alexa can autonomously make purchases on your behalf. Retail is all about removing friction from purchases, and AI’s ability to remove the thought and clicks from the buying process does precisely that.

If you use your smart speaker to run third-party apps, or Skills in Alexa speak, Amazon takes a share of the revenue developers earn. Does your smart speaker have a display? It’s also generating ad revenue when Alexa shows you businesses on your home screen. A smarter Alexa is more engaging, and higher engagement means more monetization across the board.

Amazon Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-0.38%) $-0.80

Current Price

$209.77

The big picture on a smart speaker opportunity that’s still in its early innings

Beyond revenue from device sales, Alexa further solidifies Amazon’s Prime subscriber base. Amazon charges $19.99 per month for Alexa+ but makes it free with a Prime membership. Amazon’s goal has long been to make a Prime membership a no-brainer for anyone who engages with its products and services.

There’s a good chance Amazon will continue to sell many more Alexa devices over the coming years as hardware improves, making devices even more capable. Research from Market.US estimates that the global smart speaker market will hit roughly $26 billion this year, growing to over $105 billion by 2033.

As AI moves from an app like ChatGPT to a central part of the home, where agentic AI assistants freely converse and make shopping easier than ever or upsell consumers on things they wouldn’t have considered otherwise, Amazon will be right there to capitalize on the opportunity.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

[NY] Hudson Valley Credit Union $500 Checking Bonus, Direct Deposit Not Required


Update 4/5/26: Back until 6/10/26. 

Update 6/12/25: Deal is back through 8/22/25 at this new link (ht reader RT Vegas)

Offer at a glance

  • Maximum bonus amount: $500
  • Availability: Must live, work, worship, volunteer, attend school in one of the following counties Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, and Sullivan Counties
  • Direct deposit required: Optional
  • Additional requirements: See below
  • Hard/soft pull: Soft pull
  • ChexSystems: Unknown
  • Credit card funding: Up to $10,000
  • Monthly fees: None
  • Early account termination fee: $20, 90 days
  • Household limit: None
  • Expiration date: 12/31/2023

The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • Hudson Valley Federal Credit Union is offering $400 checking bonus. Requirements are as follows:
    • Open a new HVCU Premier or Classic Checking Account with a Visa Debit Card
    • Sign up for Internet Banking & eStatements
    • Spend a minimum of $1,500 with your new Debit Card OR make $1,500 in direct deposits into your new account within the first 90 days

The Fine Print

  • Terms and Conditions Applicable to $400 Bonus Checking Account Offer, valid from 10/2/2023 to 12/31/2023
  • Account holder has 90 calendar days to meet the requirements to receive bonus. HVCU will deposit the $400 bonus into the account holder’s new checking account within five business days after the completion of the 90 calendar day qualification period, so long as the account holder fulfills each of the following three qualifications:
  • Open a new checking account with HVCU Visa Debit Card (must be requested at time of account opening);
  • Enroll in Internet Banking and/or Mobile Banking services and enroll in e-statements;
  • Use your new HVCU debit card and spend a minimum of $1,500 using the new checking account OR sign up for qualifying direct deposits with a cumulative minimum of $1,500 into your new checking account. A “qualifying direct deposit” is a direct deposit of regular monthly income, such as your salary, pension, or Social Security benefits, which are made by your employer or other payer, using account and routing numbers that you provide to them. Examples of non-qualifying direct deposits and transfers include: your initial ACH deposit to open the account, teller deposits, wire transfers, debit card transfers, ATM transfers or deposits, or Internet or Mobile banking transfers or deposits. Offer subject to member verification.
  • Only one bonus of $400 will be paid to the primary checking account owner. This must be your first HVCU checking account to qualify for this bonus. Only Personal Classic and Premier checking accounts are eligible for this offer. Members under the age of 18 are not eligible to receive this bonus. No exceptions will be made or considered. Account must be in good standing and the qualifications satisfied to receive bonus. Good standing means you have on deposit at least the par value of one full share ($0.01) in the regular share savings account, have no delinquent loans (payment is not more than 30 days late), and have a positive balance in all share accounts. May be subject to IRS reporting; please consult your tax advisor. HVCU expressly reserves the right to terminate this promotion at its discretion at any time and without further notice provided to you.
  • All bank account bonuses are treated as income/interest and as such you have to pay taxes on them

Avoiding Fees

Monthly Fees

Classic checking account has no monthly fees to worry about.

Early Account Termination Fee

According to the fee schedule there is an early account termination fee of $20 if closed within 90 days of account opening.

Our Verdict

Not sure if the credit card funding is still available or not. Previous best was the $750 checking bonus, but that required a direct deposit. Worth doing if you live in an eligible area.

Hat tip to reader Tikky

Post History:

  • Update 4/19/25: Deal is back until 5/23/2025
  • Offer doesn’t start until 2/10/2025
  • Update 2/8/25: Deal is back, this time valid until 5/9/25. Hat tip to reader Kevin H
  • Update 10/12/24: Deal is back, but now for $500. Valid until 12/4/24. Hat tip to reader Alex

Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:

  • A Beginners Guide To Bank Account Bonuses
  • Bank Account Quick Reference Table (Spreadsheet) (very useful for sorting bonuses by different parameters)
  • PSA: Don’t Call The Bank
  • Introduction To ChexSystems
  • Banks & Credit Unions That Are ChexSystems Inquiry Sensitive
  • What Banks & Credit Unions Do/Don’t Pull ChexSystems?
  • How To Use Our Direct Deposit Page For Bank Bonuses Page
  • Common Bank Bonus Misconceptions + Why You Should Give Them A Go
  • How Many Bank Accounts Can I Safely Open Within A Year For Bank Bonus Purposes?
  • Affiliate Links & Bank Bonuses – We Won’t Be Using Them
  • Complete List Of Ways To Close Bank Accounts At Each Bank
  • Banks That Allow/Don’t Allow Out Of State Checking Applications
  • Bank Bonus Posting Times

Mortgage rates climb again, tick towards 6.5%: Freddie Mac


“Seasonally adjusted purchase application volume also declined over the week, but only by 3%. The headwinds of higher rates are being offset somewhat by the buyer’s market in many parts of the country.”

Listings improved but uncertainty lingered

On the supply side, early spring data pointed to more options for house‑hunters.

“New listings jumped more than 20% from February to March, above the historical seasonal norm, and that’s an encouraging sign of seller confidence,” said Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com.

“March typically sets the table for the spring season, and last year we saw that momentum collapse almost immediately when economic uncertainty hit.”

Geopolitical tensions and rate expectations remain key drivers in the backdrop. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices and bond yields higher in recent weeks, helping to lift the 30‑year rate from just under 6% in late winter to current levels.

From WMG swooping for Revelator to UMG’s €500 million share buyback program… it’s MBW’s weekly round-up


Welcome to Music Business Worldwide’s Weekly Round-up – where we make sure you caught the five biggest stories to hit our headlines over the past seven days. MBW’s Round-up is exclusively supported by BMI, a global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music.


This week, Warner Music Group entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Revelator, the B2B music platform specializing in digital distribution and rights management.

Meanwhile, a regulatory filing in South Korea showed that HYBE is injecting $100 million into its US subsidiary, HYBE America Inc.

Elsewhere, Sony Music appointed Ezekiel Lewis as Chairman and CEO of Epic Records.

Also this week, Universal Music Group kicked off its first-ever share buyback program, worth €500 million, and UMG fired back at Drake’s appeal over the dismissal of his ‘Not Like Us’ lawsuit.

Here are some of the biggest headlines from the past few days…


1. WARNER MUSIC GROUP TO ACQUIRE REVELATOR

Warner Music Group has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Revelator, described by WMG as “the innovative B2B music platform that serves the independent business worldwide”.

The transaction is subject to customary conditions and is expected to close next quarter.

WMG said that the deal marks the latest move in its distribution and label services expansion.

Formed in 2012, Revelator specializes in digital music distribution, rights management, royalty accounting, and real-time analytics… (MBW)


2. HYBE TO INJECT $100M INTO US SUBSIDIARY, HYBE AMERICA

HYBE is pumping $100 million into its US subsidiary, HYBE America Inc., according to a regulatory filing published on Tuesday (March 31).

The capital injection, approved by HYBE’s board on March 31, takes the form of a paid-in capital increase in which the South Korean entertainment giant is acquiring 10 million new shares in its wholly owned subsidiary.

The acquisition amount of KRW 150.8 billion ($100m) was calculated using the Seoul Foreign Exchange Brokerage’s quoted exchange rate of KRW 1,508.10 per US dollar on March 30.

The filing, published on South Korea’s DART disclosure system, states that the purpose of the investment is to support “the smooth business operations of HYBE America Inc.”… (MBW)


3. EZEKIEL LEWIS NAMED CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF EPIC RECORDS

Sony Music has appointed Ezekiel Lewis as Chairman and CEO of Epic Records.

In this role, Lewis will report to Rob Stringer, Chairman, Sony Music Group.

Lewis joined Epic Records in 2018 as Executive Vice President, A&R, and was most recently elevated to President in 2023, where he led the A&R division while helping run the day-to-day operations of the company.

According to the announcement on Monday (March 30), as CEO, he will “direct all aspects of Epic’s creative vision and business operations, building on the label’s long-standing commitment to artist development.”… (MBW)


4. UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP KICKS OFF €500 MILLION SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM

Universal Music Group kicked off its EUR €500 million (USD $579m) share repurchase program on Wednesday (April 1).

The program, initially announced on Monday (March 30), marks the company’s first-ever share buyback.

As previously announced, the world’s largest music company will buy back shares through a program executed by a single, unnamed broker. The shares will be repurchased from the Euronext Amsterdam Stock Exchange, Turquoise Europe, Aquis Exchange Europe and CBOE Europe Limited.

The program is capped at 50 million shares and is expected to wrap up by October 1, 2026, although UMG reserved the right to suspend, modify, or discontinue it at any point… (MBW)


5. UMG FIRES BACK AT DRAKE APPEAL OVER ‘NOT LIKE US’ CASE DISMISSAL: 3 TAKEAWAYS FROM RESPONSE BRIEF

Universal Music Group has filed its response brief in Drake’s appeal against the dismissal of his lawsuit over Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us.

In the 83-page brief, UMG argues that Drake’s case fails because “he seeks to strip words from their context and deem them actionable defamation”.

Drake filed his 117-page appellate brief in January, challenging Judge Jeannette Vargas’s October dismissal of his defamation lawsuit against UMG over Lamar’s Not Like Us.

He originally sued UMG in January 2025, about eight months after Not Like Us was released, alleging that UMG “intentionally published and promoted” the song, knowing that its lyrical content was false and defamatory… (MBW)


Partner message: MBW’s Weekly Round-up is supported by BMI, the global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music. Find out more about BMI hereMusic Business Worldwide

They F*cking Hate Each Other | Financial Audit



*JOIN FOR FREE* – I am personally paying for your Hammer *ELITE* subscription for the first month ➡️ Sign up for *ELITE* and I’ll send you a digital gift card covering the $10 cost. In today’s post-show, they lose their sh*t in the post-show, it’s crazyyy… full fighting, calling out, hidden debt… no way this marriage lasts another 6 months

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The Most Boring Way to Get Rich with Rentals


This is the most boring way to get rich with rentals.

It’s not flashy, it’s not sexy, but it works—and it doesn’t even take that long to pull off. You don’t need to have hundreds of thousands of dollars saved up, investing experience, or dozens of rental properties. In fact, you can build over a million dollars in wealth with just four to five properties: no big apartment complexes, no complicated strategies, no sketchy financing.

That’s what we’re all after, right? Boring ways to build wealth. We want consistent five and six-figure cash flow hitting our bank accounts every year with millions in equity. But if it’s so boring and easily accessible, why isn’t everyone doing it?

Well, that’s where many Americans are wrong—thousands of real estate investors are using this same strategy to slowly and steadily build wealth without the stress of scaling a huge real estate portfolio. Dave has done it, dozens of top investors we’ve interviewed on the show have done it, and now you can, too—even if you’re starting from square one.

This is the boring way to build wealth with real estate.

Dave Meyer:
This is the most boring way to get rich with rentals. It is not flashy. It’s not sexy, but it really works and it actually doesn’t even take that long. In fact, this might be one of the quickest episodes we’ve done just because of how easy this strategy is to explain. And the good thing is that it works for people who have never owned a property and it works for those who own entire portfolios. The reality is that anyone, yes, even you watching or listening to this right now can copy the same steps I’m going to outline to build wealth through real estate. I’ll walk through each step and I’ll show you the math behind how this under the radar boring investing strategy turns average Americans into millionaires. I know it does sound almost too good to be true, but savvy investors have been using this strategy for decades.
This is the most boring way to get rich with rentals.
Hey everyone. Welcome to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m Dave Meyer, chief investment officer at BiggerPockets. And today we’re talking about one of my favorite strategies and one of my fundamental beliefs about investing in real estate, which is that boring is better. I’m going to lay it out for you and stay with me because before you decide that it’s overly simple or this is not something that you can achieve, I’m also going to share with you and I’m actually going to walk you through steps and examples about how most average people, average Americans can actually pull this off. So here it is. Buy a house every two to three years, move into it, fix it up a little bit, move out and repeat that four to five times. I know it might not sound that impressive compared to these influencers claiming that they own thousands of units.
Most of them don’t, by the way, but that actually doesn’t even matter because you don’t need to own that many. This simple, boring approach can make you a millionaire. And yes, this is true even if you don’t know where you’re going to get money for four or five different properties, because stick with me, I’m going to explain how all you really need to do is save up three and a half percent for your first property and the process will take over from there. I have had the privilege of interviewing hundreds of investors, and I promise you, this is the most common path to success in real estate investing. You don’t need fancy financing. You don’t need giant deals. You don’t need to take on big risks. This strategy generates cash flow, builds equity, and has massive tax benefits all for low money down. So let’s just talk then about this.
Why does this boring strategy work? Well, moving into an investment property, because that’s the key thing we’re talking about here. Not just going out and buying rental properties, you’re buying one at a time and actually moving into them. Moving into an investment property is commonly known as house hacking. And the reason it’s so powerful and so different from other approaches is that it unlocks the power of owner-occupied financing. This allows you to put less money down. It allows you to get better interest rates. It allows you to even finance some of your repairs. And this gives you the dual benefits of big upside that you get with normal rental property investing, but it also lowers your risks and can increase your cash flow. Now, of course, you can’t live in multiple homes at once, which is why you will need to move every two, three years, which some people might think that is burdensome.
And maybe if you’re not really interested in building long-term wealth, this isn’t for you. But I will show you in a minute that it is very well worth moving every two or three years when you see the numbers and how doing this over and over again can compound into literally millions of dollars. If you do this four to five times over the course of 10 years, my modeling of an average deal shows that you will be cash flowing tens of thousands of dollars a year, maybe up to $100,000 a year, and you will have millions of dollars in equity at your disposal. Let’s start by talking about buying something about the average price in the United States right now. We’re going to call it $400,000, and we’re going to put as little down as possible. Now, if you have more money saved up, you can put more money down.
That is often beneficial. But if you’re starting from scratch, you can put as little as 3.5% down on your first mortgage. Now, that is where this benefit of owner-occupied financing comes in. If you were to go out and just buy a traditional rental property, you’d have to put probably 25% down. That’s normal for an investor loan, but if you go and live in the property, you can put as little as 3.5% down. Now, hopefully you can see that this is a really powerful tool here because instead of having to save up $100,000 for a down payment on this $400,000 rental, you can actually save up $14,000. That’s 3.5% of $400,000. So this is really going to accelerate how quickly you can go out and get that deal, but again, you got to move into this property. Now, you’re going to need more money than just $14,000.
You’re actually going to need some closing costs. I’ve estimated that at about $5,000 per deal. It’s going to depend on what state you’re in, what lender you use, but I think 5,000 is actually a good round number that will work. And then you’re also going to need some cash reserves. Depending on the condition of the property, you might want one month of rent, two months of rent. If the property’s not in great shape, you might want five or $10,000. I’m going to estimate it here at $3,000. So that just shows that for about $22,000, and I’m just using round numbers here as is an example, but this is a very realistic example. For $22,000, you can get into a $400,000 property. I think you probably need 10 grand probably minimum for renovations, and you’re going to need to do a renovation. That’s a key part of building equity.
Don’t worry, you don’t have to do a crazy renovation. We’re talking paints, floors, simple things that you might be able to DIY or can easily pay someone to do for not that much money, but we’re talking about $35,000 here, right? I’m just going to estimate it. We said 22 plus 10 grand, that’s 32,000. For our example, I’m just going to round up to 13,000 and say that to get into this $400,000 property I’m suggesting you buy, you need $35,000. Now that’s not chump change. That’s still a lot of money, right? But it is a lot less than you would need if you were to go out and buy a traditional rental property where you needed a hundred grand just for the down payment. Nevermind the closing costs, the reserves, and the renovations as well. So if you’re sitting there, figure out, how do I get started in real estate?
Think about saving up $35,000. You can also borrow some of this money from friends and family. You can partner with people, but you’re going to probably need something like this, 35 grand to get into this first property. Once you have that 35,000 though, what should you be looking for? What kind of property? Here’s what I would look for. This is personally just me. People have different opinions, but here’s what I would look for. I would look for a small multifamily. So this is a two, three, or four unit property that has multiple units. Now you got to stop at four because the way that these loans work, these 3.5% down loans, you can only go up to four units. If you hit a five-unit building or anything bigger, that’s going to be a commercial loan. It’s not going to work for this strategy. You can do a single family home if you want, but personally, I think the better way to do it is buy a two-unit, live in one and rent out the other, buy a three-unit, live in one, and rent out the other two, or buy a four-unit, live in one, and rent out the other three.
For me, that’s the ideal situation. You’re going to command maximum rent, and it’s a more comfortable living situation. On top of that, I think that what you want to look for is properties that need work, but are in good areas. If you go out and buy a really fancy property that already looks great, you’re not going to be able to do that renovation and build equity. It’s going to be easier for you to manage, but it’s going to actually slow you down. One of the most reliable, best ways to build wealth as a real estate investor is doing renovations. So I think you target properties that need work in a good area. So this is like buying a C class property in a B area, right? You’re going to take it from C class. You’re going to make it a B class property in a B area by doing a renovation.
Or maybe depending on what market you’re in, you buy a B building in an A area if you can afford it. But the key is being able to upgrade the property because that’s what’s going to allow you to recycle your capital in future years and move on to that next property. Now, personally, I like units with at least two bedrooms, ideally three bedrooms. That’s sort of up to you. But one of the things I would be firm on is no big issues, right? You’re just getting into this. Remember we said boring. We don’t want anything exciting going on in these properties. We don’t want structural issues. We don’t need new roofs. We don’t want new HVACs. We don’t want anything messy on title. Experienced investors can make money on that, and you might be willing to do that on your third or fourth property once you’ve done this a few times.
First deal, boring. We want boring stuff where you can throw some paint, you can maybe upgrade a bathroom or a kitchen, you can put new flooring in. That’s the kind of stuff that we want to see in this first renovation. Boring is the name of the game. You don’t want to take those additional risks because you just don’t have to. You can do this with boring, better conditioned properties. And yes, you can do this at this price point. It depends on where you live. Obviously, if you’re living in California or New York or Seattle, you’re not going to be able to buy a two unit for $400,000. But I promise you, because I do this, you can do this all over the Midwest. There are areas of the northeast this is possible. This is areas of the southeast that is possible. All over the country, you can find markets where these numbers work.
So this is what I would target. A two to four unit property, around 400,000. If you can get it for cheaper, even better, but let’s just say $400,000. You want something that you can renovate and it has to be in a good area. Don’t go buy something just because it’s cheap in a not great area. That’s not going to work. You want to find a property that needs work in a decent area and it’s a manageable renovation without a lot of issues. Right after this quick break, I’m going to walk you through in a lot of detail how a boring property just like this can actually generate you thousands of dollars of cashflow and hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity in not that long of a time period. Stick with us, we’ll be right back.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m Dave Meyer. Today, we’re talking about the boring, proven way to build wealth through real estate investing. Just as a reminder, we’re talking about buying a house every two or three years, moving into it, making upgrades, moving out, and moving on. Before the break, I talked about what I would target for a deal, but let’s talk about the numbers. Let’s actually dig into what this would actually mean for you in terms of your finances if you go out and do this. So I put together this calculator actually just to walk you through this. If you’re watching it on YouTube, you can actually look through all the numbers that I’m putting in here. So we’re going to buy this property for $400,000, right? And we’re going to live in it. Now, I’m going to call this a three unit. I’m just going to assume that we’re getting a three unit.
I actually, when I’m buying deals in the Midwest, I target properties at about $125,000 per unit. I’m saying I’m going to buy three units for 400K. That’s actually be a little more than what I’m targeting, but this is absolutely possible in the Midwest and areas of the Southeast as well. I also see this in the Northeast. Now, here’s how these numbers actually work in. We’re going to buy it for $400,000. We have our closing costs at five grand, our reserves at three grand, our renovations at 13 grand. That means that the total cash that we invested, as we talked about before, is going to be about $35,000. Now, in the first year, your plan as an investor is to move in and to make these upgrades. So you maybe move into one unit, maybe it’s the nicest unit, and then you do the renovation on the other two units while you’re living there and get those renters in as soon as possible.
Now, in our example, I’m assuming that each one of these properties, let’s call them two bedrooms each, are going to rent out for about 1,500 bucks. Again, these are numbers literally from deals that I own in the Midwest. I’m using pretty similar numbers. These are not made up. These are absolutely feasible deals that you can be doing. So because we’re only renting out two of the three units, our rent for this first deal is going to be about $3,000 per month. That’s 1,500 bucks each. On top of that, we of course have expenses. So our mortgage payment’s going to be about 2,300 bucks. We have taxes and insurance at 350. We have repairs and CapEx at 240. I’m just estimating these, but these are normal. I’m doing 8% there. I’m doing a 5% vacancy contingency. And then I just did 5% for miscellaneous because sometimes when you’re a new investor, things just come up.
So I’m giving you a 5%, $150 a month budget just to figure stuff out. Most experienced investors won’t put that in there, but I’m giving you a little benefit of the doubt here. You got to have a little bit of a learning period. So all those things together bring our total expenses for the first year to $3,190. If you’re tracking, our rental income was 3,000, meaning that our monthly cash flow is actually negative. It’s negative $190 per month or about negative $2,300 per year. Now you might be thinking, that’s not that exciting and I totally understand that. But what I want you to realize here is that to rent out an equivalent property, like if you didn’t buy this and you were just continued renting instead of doing this house hacking strategy, to live in an equivalent apartment would cost you 1,500 bucks, right? That’s what you’re renting out these apartments for.
So you have this option. You could either continue renting for 1,500 bucks a month, or you could quote unquote, lose 190 bucks a month in cashflow. Now, if you’re doing the math here, what you realize is that you’re actually saving $1,300 a month in your living expenses by doing the house hacking, even though you are not technically cash flowing. This strategy is allowing you to save $15,600 per year in living expenses over renting an equivalent apartment. That’s pretty good, right? I mean, if you put it that way, you can start to see that this is already improving your financial situation in year one. And as I’ll show you in just a second, it gets a lot better in year two, and it just keeps getting better and better every year after that. But I just want to call out even in year one, you’re investing $35,000 and you’re already generating a 40% return because instead of giving that $15,600 in rent away every year, you’re saving that and you can either put that to mortgage renovations or towards your next property, you’re already earning a great return in that first year, and that’s just on your personal cash flow.
In addition to that, you’re also increasing the value of the property. Remember, you wanted to invest $13,000 into those renovations, and in our assumptions, I’m saying, are after repair value. The value of the property, once those renovations are done, actually goes up to 440,000 from 400,000. This is absolutely possible. If you find the right property and invest and do some DIY work, you invest $13,000, you can definitely increase the value of your property by 10%, and that’s what we’re showing here. So on top of that $15,600 that you saved by not paying rent, you’re also making equity, right? You are earning $40,000 in equity, plus you paid off a little bit of your mortgage. You’re talking about total benefit in the first year, like $48,000. That is an incredible start, right? That’s even with the negative cash flow. And again, as you’ll see, that cash flow is going to really grow over time and so will the equity, but this is an incredible start.
Once you’ve done that renovation, what do you do in year two? You just wait, right? Learn the business. That’s what I recommend people do. Just become a great property manager. This is when you start implementing systems where you get the right software, where you build a great team, but basically just live your life and save up money for the next deal. And as you’ll see, as we go from year one to year two, our cash flow gets a little bit better. It goes from negative 190 to negative 127. And then in year three, it goes to negative 40. Now, again, this is not actually you losing money. The property might not be generating positive cash flow, but you’re basically now in year three spending $40 a month on your living expenses where if you were living in an equivalent apartment and renting it, it would cost you $1,500 a month.
So that is a net benefit to you of $1,460 per month. That is a lot of money. That’s like 18 grand a year that you are saving and that you can put towards your future real estate portfolio. So again, it might take you one year, it might take you two years, it might take you three years, but the goal here is just to save up money for the next deal. Now you might be wondering what is enough? How long do you have to wait? Well, enough is basically when you’ve either saved up enough money from your lower living expenses or you have built up enough equity in the property to refinance or most commonly some combination of the both. Now, if you’ve never heard of refinancing, what it is, is basically restructuring your mortgage so you can tap into some of the equity, some of the value that you have created in this property.
This isn’t some risky thing. It’s very common for investors and homeowners like millions of people do this every year. So one option again is to save up that 15,000 a year and that can get you there, but by refinancing, you can actually speed up your next deal. Let me just explain to you how. First and foremost, you need to refinance into a non-owner occupied loan. Now, I said at the beginning, one of the powerful things that we’re taking advantage of with this boring strategy is using this owner-occupied loan to put as little as 3.5% down, but you can’t live in multiple places. And so what you need to do is refinance this into a conventional investor mortgage so that you can go move into another property and use that 3.5% mortgage again, right? That’s the goal here. You can’t have two primary residents. Because you’ve built equity in this deal, you’re going to turn it into a traditional rental, and then you’re going to move on and house hack.
That’s the first goal, is to switch it from a owner-occupied to a non-owner-occupied loan. The second goal of your refinance is to pull out capital, like I was saying, that you can use for your next deal. And this part is really important. So I’m going to walk through some of the details here so you can really understand what I’m talking about. For an investor loan, because you’re going to refinance this property one into an investor loan, you need to put 25% down. When you’re asking the question, when can I move on to my next property? Well, when you have enough equity to put 25% down into this property. Now, I want to be clear. I’m not saying you need to bring more cash to the deal and put it down, but you build equity, one, by doing the renovation. That’s why it’s so important to do this renovation.
Two, from just normal market appreciation, and three, from loan pay down, right? Every month you’re paying your mortgage, you are paying down some of your principal balance and you are building equity. Using our example around year three, year three and a half, I’m just going to use round numbers, but let’s just say our property’s worth about 460. Our mortgage balance is about 330 now. So we have like roughly $130,000 in equity. Now you can’t take that all out because you do have to do two things. You’re taking out a new mortgage where you’re going to put 25% down. So that’s $115,000 using these round numbers. So you’re going to have to keep 115 grand in there. Then you’re going to have to take $330,000 of your 460 total and pay off your old mortgage, right? You have to go pay that off. So between the 330 in your original loan payoff and the 115 you need to keep in this deal, that’s $445,000.
And if the property’s worth 460, if that’s what it appraises for, that means you can pull out $15,000. That’s awesome, right? It’s not some massive thing, but you can see how this is going to help you for that next deal. After three years, you’ve saved $15.50 a year. That’s over $46,000. Plus you can access this $15,000 from a cash out refinance, meaning that you’re going to have now $60,000 for your next deal while you own a cash flowing rental property that’s going to generate you over $1,000 a month once you move out. I hope you can see where this is going, right? Yes, that first year, it’s not the most exciting thing. Yes, you’re saving a lot of money over your living expenses, but just three years later, now you have a cash flowing rental property. You have over $1,000 in cash flow. You have tens of thousands of dollars of equity into this deal.
This is incredible, right? This is an amazing thing, and this is just your first deal. We’re going to take a quick break, but when we come back, I’m going to show you that how if you just repeat this exact process three or four more times, it can absolutely transform your life, turn you into a millionaire, and help you achieve financial freedom. Stick with us, we’ll be right back.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m Dave Meyer, talking about the most boring way to get rich with rentals. We talked about what to do with the first deal. I ran through some example numbers for you of how a first deal might work and how it could impact your personal net worth. Just as a reminder, first couple years, you’re not cash flowing, but you’re saving a lot of money over alternative living situations. So you’re actually building wealth that way that you can use towards your next couple of deals. And after two, three, maybe four years, depending on who you are, you could probably move on to that next property. Now, what did that next property look like? What should you be looking for in that next deal? Well, I told you this was going to be boring, so all you got to do is literally the exact same thing.
Go buy another small multifamily, move into it, fix it up, and wait. The only difference I would recommend is maybe looking for either a slightly nicer property or a bigger value add opportunity, like if you’re willing to take on a bigger renovation, that might work because now you have more capital to play with. Remember, last deal we said 35,000, but using our estimates from … And just our example, using these rough numbers, probably a 50 to 60 grand to play with here. And so if you’re willing to take on a bigger renovation, that’s what I would personally do. Rather than buying a nicer place that’s more expensive, I would focus on building equity. Value add investing is a great way to accumulate more capital to use for your third deal and your fourth deal and to start to see this thing really start to snowball.
So maybe let’s just call it buying a four unit this time worth $420,000. So that’s 105 a unit, absolutely achievable, but you are going to need to put more money into this, right? We’re buying something that needs a bigger rehab. You’re going to need about 20-ish, $22,000 for closing, down payment, reserves, but now you’re going to have, let’s say, 35, $40,000 to invest in the rehab, and that’s a lot of money. That really allows you to push up the value of this property from, let’s say, 420 all the way up to $500,000, which is a totally reasonable expectation, right? You actually could do something like that. Investing 40 to earn another 40, totally reasonable, right? And that’s it. This is the formula.This is the boring way that you can get rich. You just do the same thing over and over again. And if you’re not convinced, let me actually just walk you through what this might look like at the portfolio level.
And we’re going to look at this on sort of a 15-year time horizon. I’ll show you that you’re going to really start to enjoy this benefits just a couple of years into this, but by 15 years, if you do this for 15 years, you are going to completely transform your financial life. So I’m just going to walk you through this. If you’re watching this on YouTube, you can actually see the spreadsheet I’m using. But for everyone who’s just listening on audio, I will describe this to you. Basically what you see, I’ve separated it into two different sections. The first is the cashflow, how much cashflow you’re actually generating to live your life each year. And then I’ve calculated something called total benefit. That is basically the equity that you have in your property plus the cumulative cashflow for all of your properties. So that’s basically the total benefit that you have generated from all of your properties together in a given year.
Let’s talk about cash flow first. In your first year of doing this strategy, you only own one deal and you are technically losing about $2,300 a year on this property. But as we discussed, when you compare that to living somewhere else, you’re actually saving close to $15,000 a year. In year two, it gets a little bit better. You’re losing slightly less money, but again, saving more. Same thing happens in year three. That’s when you actually go out and buy your next property. And this is where your cashflow really starts to increase. Now, a lot of people might think, “Oh, how is it going to increase my cash flow if I’m pulling out money?” Well, it’s simple. That first deal, now instead of renting out two units, remember this is a three unit property, you’re now renting out three units. And actually, in this scenario, your mortgage payment isn’t going to change very much because even though you’re taking out a mortgage on a more expensive property because you’ve increased the value, which is great, by putting 25% down, the amount of money that you’re borrowing is probably not actually going to change that much.
I actually did the math here. And if you look at the, I’ll go back to this single deal, you’ll see that the mortgage payment goes from about 2,300 bucks a month in year three. After the refinance, it does go up to about $2,500 a month, but it’s not that impactful. And when you add the entire new rental unit that you’re bringing rent from, you go from being cashflow negative to cashflow positive. In year four alone, you are projecting from that first deal to make about $12,700. Now, of course, in year four, you’re also buying a new property, which you might be cashflow negative on. So the total benefit in that fourth year when you now own two properties, 10,000 bucks a year in cashflow. That’s pretty great, right? You’re still saving money. You’re still doing better than living in a rental unit, and now you’re earning $10,000 a year in cashflow, and from there it keeps getting better.
By year seven, when you acquire your third property, you’re up to $2,700 a month in cashflow. I should mention that this cashflow is highly tax advantage. So it’s like earning more like $36,000 a year in your job. A lot of money. You’re talking about $3,000 a month now in effective spending power that you’re getting by year seven, but it just snowballs from there. By year nine, when you buy your fourth deal, you’re up to 33,000, and that’s when things just keep getting better. By year 10, you’re at 50,000, year 12, 73,000, and by year 15, you’re getting $93,000 a year in tax advantage cashflow. Again, when you figure out the tax benefits, that’s similar to earning $120,000 a year from just four units. You started with $35,000. You put $14,000 down on that first deal, and then 15 years later, you are earning $93,000 in cash flow.
That’s absolutely incredible. Hopefully you can see this is the way that ordinary Americans can go from having tens of thousands of dollars to having hundreds of thousands of dollars in mostly passive income. And that, my friends, is just the cashflow side of it. We haven’t even talked about the equity side of it. So let’s turn to our attention to that. This, again, like everything in real estate, it happens slowly. In year one, your total benefit, the total benefit of everything that’s going on is around $11,720. It’s good. It’s worth it, right? But it’s not huge. Second year, it jumps up to $50,000 because you did that renovation and now your property’s worth the after repair value. By year three, you’re at $63,000. By year four, you’re at 86,000, and that’s when things really start to scale again, because now you have that second property that we talked about that you’re doing the renovation on.
You’re going to have this massive bump in equity. So from year four to five, you go from $86,000 in total benefit to $155,000 in total benefit. By year 10, you’re up to 588,000, and by year 15, our time horizon for this example, you’re at $1.33 million in total benefit. This is how real estate works. It starts slow. It is boring. But if you have this combination of cash flow, you build equity by doing renovations, you pay down your mortgage. And even if you have average market appreciation … By the way, and this is examples, I put the appreciation rate at 3%, long-term average is 3.5%. So I put it a little below the long-term average, and it is still earning you $1.33 million in total benefit over just 15 years. Now, I know that’s not get rich quick, but what I’ve been talking to you about is as stable and as predictable as it gets.
These are low risk type of real estate deals. There’s always risk. You have to operate well, you have to execute on the strategy, but this is a predictable, reliable way that you can build serious cashflow and build serious wealth through real estate. So I hope you all can see the benefit of this. I hope you are always excited about this as I am, this is the way I started in real estate investing. I was a house hacker myself. And again, I talked to so many people here on the BiggerPockets podcast and it is probably one of the most common ways. I think it is the most common way that I see ordinary people go from living paycheck to paycheck or just living in an ordinary job to having real disposable wealth, having real financial freedom. This is it. It is boring, but it absolutely works.
So before we get out of here and before you go out and start doing this for yourself, let’s just review what this is. The boring strategy is to do owner-occupied real estate investing. Go out, buy a property that needs a little bit of work. Use owner-occupied financing, move into the property, do the renovation, and then wait. Wait two, three, maybe four years, whatever it takes you to save money and to build equity in your property. Then take that money that you save and potentially money that you refinance out of your existing property and go do it again. You got to refinance that loan, remember, because you can only have one owner-occupied loan at a time, but just do that. Continue to repeat as much as you need to. And I know that some people think this is going to be uncomfortable, that you don’t want to live next to your tenants.
I’m sorry. It’s not that bad. I have done it and it’s not an issue. I know people who are doing it in their 20s, in their 30s, in their 40s, in their 50s. You don’t need to be living right next to each other. Find a side-by-side town home with a fence in the backyard. Those exist all over the place. Go do that. Find a primary single family home, live in it that has an ADU in the back, or a mother-in-law suite that you can rent out. There are absolutely ways to make this sustainable for you and your life. So don’t get discouraged by that. This is something everyone can do. And if you are motivated to find financial freedom and to build wealth, I promise you, this boring strategy can work for you. That’s what we got for you guys today. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of The BiggerPockets Podcast.
I’m Dave Meyer for BiggerPockets. We’ll see you next time.

 

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New United Mile Play Promo for Flights Through June 9, Check Your Offer and Register Now


United Mile Play Promo

United Mile Play Promo

United Airlines has launched a new Mile Play promotion that could earn you bonus miles for your flights. Targeted MileagePlus members must book and fly a required number of flights within the promotion period in order to get the extra miles.

These bonuses vary from one account to the other, and you must be targeted in order to qualify. You can check your own offer here. 

The Offers

Here are some of the offers that you might see this time around:

  • Book and take 1 trip of $100 or more to get 3,000 miles.
  • Book and take 1 trip of $275 or more to get 4,300 miles.
  • Book and take 1 trip of $175 or more to get 5,000 miles.
  • Book and take 1 trip of $225 or more to get 6,900 miles.
  • Book and take 2 trips of $200 or more each to get 11,000 miles.
  • Book and take 2 trips of $225 or more each to get 14,000 miles.
  • Book and take 3 trips of $175 or more each to get 15,000 miles.
  • Book and take 3 trips of $225 or more each to get 12,000 miles.
  • Book and take 3 trips of $250 or more each to get 9,000 miles.

A trip is a unique travel itinerary with a United Airlines confirmation number.

Important Terms

  • United Mile Play Promotion offers are targeted.
  • Only transactions initiated after registration and completed on or prior to June 9, 2026 will qualify toward satisfaction of the offer requirements.
  • The “fare” is the base fare of the ticket plus carrier-imposed surcharges, excluding any government-imposed taxes and surcharges.
  • Registrant must complete all flights specified in the offer by the end date to receive bonus award miles. No partial bonuses.
  • Bonus award miles may only be earned once.

Guru’s Wrap-up

If you are planning to fly United then registering to earn extra miles with this latest Mile Play promotion is a no-brainer. Let me know if you received any good offers worth taking into consideration.

Just make sure to register and complete requirements before the promotion expiration date if you want to get the bonus miles. Also keep in mind that government-imposed taxes and surcharges are excluded from the spending requirement.

AI angst mutates into ‘FOBO’ as Fear of Becoming Obsolete fuels quiet resistance across the economy


There’s a new acronym reshaping how workers think about their careers: FOBO — the Fear of Becoming Obsolete. Unlike traditional job insecurity, FOBO isn’t about getting fired. It’s about becoming irrelevant. Four in 10 workers now name AI-driven job loss as one of their primary fears — a share that has nearly doubled in a single year, according to KPMG. Sixty-three percent say AI will make the workplace feel less human. Skill demands in AI-exposed roles are shifting 66% faster than they did just one year ago. In 2026, FOBO became the defining psychological condition of the American workplace.

After Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, claimed last year that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar positions within five years, he was joined within months by Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman, who offered a similar outlook. More recently, Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) said that AI leaders themselves have been surprised and alarmed at the pace of disruption, and they are “literally consciously pulling back on their predictions because of the short-term economic disruption.” Warner put the new college grad unemployment at 35% within two years.

These are the predictions feeding FOBO — and they’re landing. A massive new study from MIT wants to pump the brakes. Not on the fear — FOBO, it turns out, is pointing in roughly the right direction — but on the timeline. And the timeline, it turns out, changes everything.

Researchers at MIT FutureTech published findings this week showing that AI’s march through the labor market looks far less like a sudden catastrophe and far more like a slow, rising flood — serious and accelerating, but not the overnight apocalypse that has dominated headlines and executive anxiety for the past two years.

“Rather than arriving in crashing waves that transform a certain set of tasks at a time,” the researchers write, “progress typically resembles a rising tide, with widespread gains across many tasks simultaneously.”

The study, titled “Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides,” is one of the most comprehensive empirical examinations of AI’s real-world task performance to date. The team of nine researchers led by Matthias Mertens and Neil Thompson collected more than 17,000 evaluations of LLM outputs from domain-expert workers across more than 3,000 labor market tasks drawn from the U.S. Department of Labor’s O*NET classification system. Those tasks spanned everything from legal analysis to food preparation, management to computer science. More than 40 AI models were tested, ranging from GPT-3.5 Turbo to GPT-5, Claude Opus 4.1, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and DeepSeek R1.

For anyone gripped by FOBO, the core question the researchers asked is also the most unsettling one: Can AI complete these tasks well enough that a manager would accept the output without any edits? The answer is already yes — frequently.

Across all models and job categories tested, AI successfully completed roughly 50% to 75% of text-based labor market tasks at a minimally acceptable quality level. That’s not a future projection. That’s today. More specifically, the study found that by the third quarter of 2024, frontier AI models were already hitting a 50% success rate on tasks that take humans about a full workday to complete.

The improvement trajectory is steep. Between the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, frontier models went from clearing a 50% success threshold on 3- to 4-hour tasks to clearing the same bar on tasks that take humans an entire week. Failure rates are halving roughly every two to three years across the board, which translates to annual gains of 15 to 16 percentage points in success rates.

Extrapolating those trends — and the researchers are careful to note this represents an optimistic, upper-bound scenario — AI systems could complete most text-based tasks with 80% to 95% success rates by 2029 at a minimally sufficient quality level. For the majority of survey tasks, which take a few hours for a human to complete, the projected 2029 success rate approaches 90%.

MIT doesn’t use the phrase but this is FOBO, calibrated. The fear isn’t irrational — it’s premature. The water is rising. But the MIT data suggests the floorboards won’t be underwater by next Tuesday. The researchers’ most consequential line for anxious workers: “Workers are likely to have some visibility into these changes, rather than facing discontinuous jumps in AI-driven automation.” The rising tide gives you time to move. The question is whether you’re moving.

FOBO at the institutional level

Here’s the irony: even as MIT documents AI’s sweeping capability gains, most companies have yet to deploy the tools at all. FOBO isn’t just a personal condition, then — it’s an organizational one. According to Goldman Sachs economists Sarah Dong and Joseph Briggs, citing Census Bureau data in their March 2026 AI Adoption Tracker, fewer than 19% of U.S. establishments have adopted AI. Goldman projects that adoption will reach only 22.3% over the next six months.

Compounding that paralysis: only about one-third of workers say their employer is providing adequate AI training, guidance, or reskilling opportunities — down nearly 10 percentage points from 2024, according to research from workforce nonprofit JFF. Most companies are leaving workers to manage FOBO alone, without the infrastructure that would actually resolve it.

That gap has a measurable cost. Enterprise workers who do use AI are recapturing 40 to 60 minutes per day, according to OpenAI enterprise data from December 2025, and 75% say they can now complete tasks they previously couldn’t do at all.

“We continue to observe large impacts on labor productivity in the limited areas where generative AI has been deployed,” Goldman’s economists wrote. “Academic studies imply a 23% average uplift to productivity, while company anecdotes imply slightly larger efficiency gains of around 33%.”

Put simply: the companies using AI are pulling ahead. And the math is unforgiving. Across a team of 50, that 40-to-60-minute daily time saving translates to 33 to 50 hours of recovered productivity every single day. The race is on, then, but many companies are still strapping on their running shoes and waiting for the whistle to blow.

FOBO with a corner office

The MIT data lands at a moment when corporate leaders are scrambling to get their arms around a technology that, as one senior executive put it, is “outpacing the ability for humans and businesses to adopt it.” Joe Depa, the global chief innovation officer at EY, told Fortune in a recent interview that “the technology is in many ways ready, but it’s taking some time for us to … take advantage of it.”

Depa, who oversees AI strategy for one of the world’s largest professional services firms, described the pressure he sees across industries as relentless. “Every day there’s a new headline, every day there’s a new, you know, something that we have to get ready for. Every day, I get an email from my boss asking about some new event that happened somewhere in the world that’s raising the stakes of how fast things are moving within AI.”

That pressure is sharpened by a stark internal reality at many companies: 83% of executives — drawn from a survey of 500 business leaders — say they lack the right data infrastructure to fully leverage AI.

EY’s clients, based on 4,500 surveys, say they still lack the right data infrastructure to fully leverage AI. In other words, the technology is racing ahead while the organizational plumbing needed to actually use it lags far behind.

FOBO’s cruelest irony

That’s where the “rising tide” framing offers some reassurance to the many companies grappling with this dynamic. The MIT findings directly challenge research from METR, a prominent AI safety organization, which has argued that AI capabilities surge abruptly for specific sets of tasks — a “crashing waves” model that implies workers could suddenly find themselves obsolete with very little warning. “We find little evidence of crashing waves,” they wrote, “but substantial evidence that rising tides are the primary form of AI automation.”

The MIT data, drawn from realistic and representative job tasks rather than stylized benchmarks, consistently shows a flatter performance curve. AI doesn’t suddenly master a narrow set of tasks and leave everything else untouched. Instead, it gets broadly, incrementally better across nearly all task types and durations simultaneously.

“Workers are likely to have some visibility into these changes,” the researchers write, “rather than facing discontinuous jumps in AI-driven automation.” More broadly, the projection of AI improvement to a near-perfect automation level through the next three years, not the next 18 months of doomsday scenarios, provides what the researchers call “a window for worker adjustment, particularly in tasks with low tolerance for errors.” Furthermore, their estimates assume AI progress continues at the pace seen over the last two years, meaning it’s an upper-bound or particularly fast scenario. AI just may not keep evolving and advancing as fast as it has recently.

That matters for how companies plan and how workers prepare. A crashing-wave model demands emergency triage; a rising-tide model demands strategic adaptation. The MIT researchers argue the latter is the more accurate frame — though they’re emphatic that “gradualism is not inherently protective.”

There are meaningful differences by profession. Legal work had the lowest AI success rate among the domains tested, at just 47%. Installation, maintenance, and repair work — for text-based tasks specifically — topped the chart at 73%. Management tasks came in around 53%; healthcare practitioners at 66%; business and financial operations at 57%. In other words, no white-collar sector is immune, but some are considerably closer to the inflection point than others.

Depa said he sees this sorting happening in real time inside EY’s own workforce, and humans are acting unpredictably, even strangely at the prospect of this strange new work partner. The firm is the third-largest Microsoft Copilot user in the world, he shared, and the adoption data tells a generational story: junior employees are all in; senior leaders are lagging. “When I look at the breakdown,” he said, “two of my junior levels — high adoption, right out of the gate … and then when you get to the more senior levels, that’s where the adoption starts to drop off.”

He described a particularly worrying cohort: skilled, experienced workers who are simply refusing to use AI tools. “We’ve got some software engineers that are 10x, 20x more productive than last year using AI, like, they’re just killing it.” He said he’s seen workers go from “mediocre” to really “at the top of their game” once they master these new tools. At the same time, you have others “that used to be really, really strong software developers that are somewhat resistant to using AI,” he said. They have an attitude that they can do it better, so they don’t need the tool. “And they’ve gone from being top of their class to now bottom of the peer group, right. And those are the ones I worry about the most.”

The fear of becoming obsolete, in other words, is accelerating the very outcome that workers dread most. Left untreated, a serious case of FOBO becomes self-fulfilling.

These AI resisters, with tremendous functional skills and experience that are super critical, but productivity lagging their peer group at 10x or even 20x, “at some point, those individuals would have to find a different role,” Depa said. “And I think those are the ones that we’re trying to figure out.”

What’s still missing from the AI-at-work story

The MIT team is careful not to oversell its own findings. High task-level success rates, they note, don’t automatically translate into job displacement. The “last-mile costs” of integrating AI into actual workflows — organizational friction, liability concerns, the economics of deployment at smaller firms — remain significant barriers that are poorly captured by any benchmark.

Near-perfect AI performance on most tasks also remains years beyond 2029. The flat logistic curve that makes the rising tide gradual also means the final climb toward 99%-plus reliability is a long one, a meaningful buffer for error-intolerant professions in law, medicine, and engineering.

“While progress is significant,” the researchers write, “widespread automation, particularly in domains with low tolerance for errors, may still be some distance away.”

The bottom line is more complicated than either the doomers or the dismissers want to admit. AI is already capable, improving fast, and headed for most of your inbox in the next three to five years. But the transformation is likely to arrive as a steady, visible tide rather than a sudden drowning, which means the window to adapt is real, if not infinite. If you want to adapt, that is.

FOBO is rational. The MIT data confirms it. But the antidote isn’t denial or paralysis — it’s exactly what the workers thriving inside EY are already doing: treating AI as a tool, not a verdict. The window is open. The question is whether you’ll walk through it.