Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to predict the future of oil prices. Several factors determine the movement of oil, but it ultimately boils down to supply and demand. Again, when threats of economic downturn, war, etc. are high, the oil trajectory can turn rapidly.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

When you pay for gas at the pump, you’re paying for more than just the crude oil itself; you’re also springing for links along the chain, such as the refineries and wholesalers—not to mention taxes and local gas station markups.

Still, the crude oil aspect affects the final price most dramatically, as it typically accounts for more than half the price per gallon. When oil prices spike, so do gas prices. And frustratingly, when oil prices drop, gas prices tend to take their time drifting down to the lower price (sometimes referred to as “rockets and feathers”).

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer—more of an immediate relief to assist the consumer and keep critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Oil and natural gas are both major energy fuels. A big change in oil prices can affect natural gas by extension. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible—which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

When examining oil’s performance, there are generally two major benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil is the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the main benchmark of North America.

Between the two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Energy coverage from Fortune

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Frequently asked questions

Dogecoin (DOGE 1.40%) was created in 2013 by two friends who felt the cryptocurrency industry was taking itself too seriously. At the time, a growing chorus of investors believed Bitcoin (BTC 0.70%) was about to replace the entire financial system, and considering that still hasn’t happened, the friends were probably right to take some of the edge off with their meme coin.

Dogecoin reached an all-time high of $0.73 in 2021, which translated to a market capitalization of more than $90 billion, so it was more valuable than most of the companies in the S&P 500 index. But its gains simply weren’t sustainable because they were fueled by pure speculation, so the token has since lost more than 85% of its peak value.

Dogecoin is trading at just $0.10 per token as I write this, but could 2026 be the year it rediscovers some momentum and stages a rally to finally reach the $1 milestone? Read on for the surprising answer.

Speculation alone won’t be enough

The speculative frenzy that drove Dogecoin to its 2021 record high was partly fueled by Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, who promoted the coin on social media by sharing memes and participating in banter with other enthusiasts. He was even the centerpiece of a Dogecoin-themed comedy skit on Saturday Night Live in May 2021, which happened to coincide with the token’s peak.

But speculation can only go so far. Dogecoin doesn’t have a legitimate use case in the real world, but that isn’t uncommon in the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin isn’t particularly useful, either, but it’s perceived as a digital store of value by many investors because of its stellar performance history and because it has a capped supply that creates the perception of scarcity. Dogecoin has neither, but more on that later.

Being useful is the simplest way for a cryptocurrency to attract demand. Ether and Solana, for instance, are the native cryptocurrencies for the Ethereum and Solana blockchains, respectively, which developers use to build decentralized software applications. When people use those apps, they activate smart contracts that trigger fees payable in Ether or Solana, creating a steady stream of demand for those coins.

Dogecoin’s extreme volatility also rules out its potential as a payment mechanism, because it would make cash-flow management a painful experience for businesses. That’s partly why just 2,222 merchants worldwide are willing to accept the coin in exchange for goods and services, according to crypto directory Cryptwerk.

Without a stable source of demand, it is almost impossible for Dogecoin to stage a rally to $1 this year.

Today’s Change

(-1.40%) $-0.00

Current Price

$0.10

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$16B

Day’s Range

$0.10 – $0.10

52wk Range

$0.08 – $0.30

Volume

494.5M

Dogecoin’s supply is set to grow forever

Dogecoin’s limitless supply might be an even bigger barrier to further upside from here. New tokens are issued as rewards to “miners,” who validate transactions on the blockchain by using computers to solve complex mathematical problems. This process keeps the ecosystem functioning — without it, the blockchain would no longer be a secure or accurate record of transactions.

Bitcoin uses a very similar system, but as I mentioned earlier, it has a capped supply of 21 million coins that can never be changed. Dogecoin, on the other hand, has no such limit. While a maximum of 5 billion coins can be mined each year, there is no end date, which means the circulating supply will grow forever.

Personally, I’ve never seen an investment-grade asset with an unlimited supply that appreciated in value over the long term. Gold itself would no longer be valuable if it were infinitely abundant.

Can Dogecoin reach $1 this year?

Dogecoin opened 2026 at a price of $0.12. It currently has a circulating supply of 154 billion coins, so if 5 billion more are added to the pool this year, there will be dilution of roughly 3%. In theory, the price per coin would have to decline by the same amount for Dogecoin’s market capitalization to hold steady — which is appropriate, considering the ecosystem isn’t creating any real value.

Therefore, I don’t expect Dogecoin to post any gains during 2026, and I’m not surprised it has ticked lower to $0.10. Of course, the picture will look completely different if Dogecoin finds a legitimate use case in the next few months, but I won’t be holding my breath because it hasn’t found one during the past 13 years.

Over the longer term, Dogecoin’s circulating supply will double during the next 31 years or so, assuming 5 billion new coins are mined each year. That means the value of each one will probably halve during the same period, so investors looking for positive returns from here might be left disappointed.