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How Much Should You Put Down on Your First Rental?


You’ve saved up some money and are ready to buy your first rental property. Now comes the question: How much do you put down? Do you buy multiple cheaper properties or splurge and put the entire down payment into one bigger, arguably more stable rental? Should you start to scale from the jump or test the real estate investing waters before committing more money? After buying dozens of rental units, Dave and Henry have a clear opinion.

We’re back with your questions from the BiggerPockets Forums! A real estate rookie is wondering whether they should spend $100K on one down payment or split it up into multiple, cheaper rental properties. Another is planning on putting very little money down on his first house hack, but do the numbers add up in this not-so-stable housing market? If you’re ready for your first deal, both of these answers could give you peace of mind.

You’re about to sell a house flip for some serious profit—can you move that money (tax-free) into rental properties via a 1031 exchange? And if so, is the 1031 exchange worth the headache that comes with the timeline? Finally, a landlord is fed up with their rental and wants to sell. She has two choices: sell for cash and break even, or fix it up and potentially realize a five-figure profit. Would Henry, the renovation expert, make that bet?

Dave:
What’s the point of your first real estate deal? Some investors would say you saved the down payment, you did the homework, now shoot your shot, maximize returns and start the wealth building snowball. The flip side though is that you don’t know what you don’t know on your first deal. So you could play it safe, just get on base and then push the envelope after you’ve gained experience. One of these approaches does build wealth faster on a spreadsheet, but not always in real life. What’s up everyone? I’m Dave Meyer here with Henry Washington. And today we’re dipping into the BiggerPockets forums to answer your questions. Henry, how you doing, man?

Henry:
I’m doing great, man. I love answering forum questions because they’re other people’s problems that I get to help with versus dealing with my own.

Dave:
So much easier to give advice when it’s not your problem. I totally agree with that. Well, we got some great questions today. We’re covering a lot like the house hacking math most people get wrong. The moment it’s time to 1031 out of a property and when to cut your losses on an entire market. But Henry, you got our first question queued up. What do we got?

Henry:
Our first question comes from a BiggerPockets forum user named Justin, and he asks, “I live in California and I’ve been looking at multifamily units in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin for my first investment. I will have approximately $100,000 within a few months. Would it be better to buy multiple multifamily units that are between 120,000 and 150,000 and put as little down as possible? Or should I buy multifamily or single family homes, but put 20% down?”

Dave:
Okay. Well, first up, Justin, love the strategy here. If you live in California and it’s expensive, invest in the Midwest. It’s a great way to do it. Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, all have great places to invest. I do it. I live in the Pacific Northwest, expensive here, hard to find cash flow. So I love the approach here. So then he’s asking, “Do you buy multiple units and put less down or buy fewer units, but put 20% down?” Justin, I got some hard news for you. You got to put 25% down, just so you know if you’re getting an investor loan out of state. Maybe if you’re getting a DSCR loan, you might be able to put down less, but at least in my experience, I put 25% down. What about you?

Henry:
Yeah, I’ve seen some 20%. I’ve seen some 25%. It just depends. I like the thought process here. My default answer is you’ve got to lean back on your goals. So if I have smaller goals, then I’m willing to put more down to get the cash flow upfront. If I’m trying to grow and scale quickly, then putting less cash in allows you to scale more quickly. But I don’t know if that’s the best move in this market unless you’ve got a good level of comfortability and a good team in place to execute that because saying you want to buy two or three multifamilies and actually executing them so that they produce the return that you hope they would in this market, it could be challenging. So I think there’s some other information you need in between there. What are your goals? Have you done deals in this area before?
Do you have a team in place? Because if you’re going to go and buy two or three multifamily deals in a year’s time span, there’s a lot that can go on in there that you’ve got to be responsible for in order for you to get that return.

Dave:
The title of this post that you read was First Investment. So the answer is he has not done these kinds of deals before. So I like this question because I feel like so many times when we get these, we have to answer them by saying, “Oh, it depends. If

Henry:
You

Dave:
Could do this, this one is easy for me. Buy one better condition multifamily property. Put 25% down. It’s your first deal. Your number one goal in your first deal is do not lose. Just don’t lose your shirt. And the best way to lose your shirt is to buy what he’s listing as multifamilies for 120, 150 grand a unit. That’s a cheap property for a reason. There is going to be problems. You don’t know how to manage it. You’re across the country. You’re going to invest out of state. I genuinely like the approach. Buy something easy for yourself, learn what you like, build your team, gain some confidence. And then maybe in the future you can buy cheaper properties. Maybe you just keep doing that, but you don’t need to take that swing on the first one.

Henry:
Yes. Cheaper properties can be more of a headache, but also just the benefit of being able to build a team you can depend on around that first deal. So if you buy something better quality in a decent neighborhood, but build that Rolodex of contractors, your investor-friendly agents and lenders, and after you’ve done a deal and you have some of those things in place, it’ll be a whole lot easier to execute a larger project. But starting off, you could be in a world of hurt if you buy, because if you hit the combo and buy not a great deal and a ton of disrepair and you don’t have a team in place, I mean you can lose money fast.

Dave:
The longer I do real estate, the more I prioritize making it sustainable for myself. And I actually started writing my BP Con presentation the other day, so I won’t give it all away. You have to come to the event in Orlando, October 2nd through 4th to hear the whole thing. But a lot of what I am talking about, and I’ll just share with you a little bit, is in order to be good at real estate, you need to stay in the game and you just can’t take risks like this when you don’t have enough capital to weather it. You can take risks in real estate. There’s plenty of times to do that. First investment out of state, now time to take a big swing in my opinion. You go up there, you try and hit a single or a double, you learn, you get better and you find a way to get to the next one.
Get up again, get up to bat again. I just don’t see the reason to swing for the fences here.

Henry:
Start small, build your team, learn the market, because until you actually do a deal in that market, it’s all guesswork.

Dave:
Just think about limiting your risk. Learning is more important than maximizing your ROI on the first deal. All right. Great question, Justin. Appreciate it. Good luck to you. We have another question from Trent in St. Petersburg. We’re going to get to that right after this quick break. Stick with us. Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. Henry and I are here answering the questions of the BiggerPockets community. Our next question comes from Trent in St. Petersburg, Florida, who says, “Hi everyone. I want to move to Florida and house hack using an FHA loan with 3.5% down. The duplexes I’ve been looking at typically rent for around $1,200 per unit while the estimated mortgage payments, taxes, insurance would be about 2,200 per month. Am I looking in the wrong area or is this fairly normal in today’s market? Should I be factoring in future rent increases or is it better to base my numbers only on current rents?” Henry, what do you think?

Henry:
I think this sounds like a solid house hack.

Dave:
Yeah, I would buy this deal right now.

Henry:
$2,400 total coming in rent, but mortgage payment about $2,200 a month, which means you’re going to live in one of the units, so you’ll bring in 12. So you’re cutting your living expenses down and you’re going to be able to move out at some point. Now, depending on when you move out, you may be breaking even depending on rent raises and you may be cash flowing depending on how long you stay there, but that’s the beauty of a house hack. You can stay there longer if you’re not ready to move out or you’re not in the financial position to move out yet. But this was solid numbers.

Dave:
Yeah. St. Petersburg is a good market. I don’t know exactly where the neighborhood is, but that’s a good market in Florida. Florida isn’t a correction. So Trent, my advice would be to try and buy under market comps and make sure you’re getting a good deal here, but the cashflow numbers work on this. It’s easy to estimate this. Next week, we’re coming out with an episode of the podcast, so tune into this. It’s fun. I created a new rule of thumb to replace the 1% rule because rent to price does not work anymore. And we came up with rent to payment ratio. And I think this is a better predictor of cashflow right now for all the reasons you can hear about in next week’s episode. But if you compare the rents, which is 2,400 bucks a month to the payment of 2,200 bucks a month, that’s above 1%.
That is a good opportunity for cash flow. I like this deal because regardless of what you’re paying when you live there, you could move out and this will cash flow, especially because you’re putting 3.5% down and it will cash flow at that number. So if you move out and refinance it up to a 20%, your cash flow is going to be good.
I guess the only other thing I would ask here is, is there an HOA? Because I know in Florida sometimes there are HOAs that might be a monthly fee that you’re not factoring in here, but assuming there’s not an HOA, I think it’s looking pretty good. I would still look around and compare other duplexes to make sure I’m not missing out on an even better opportunity, but just comparing this to the national average, Trent, you’re looking pretty good.

Henry:
Yeah, I agree. And also we’re assuming some things. If this is turnkey, you can just buy it and you don’t have to do renovations to it and you can get these numbers, that’s great. But if you got to go and spend 50, $100,000 to get to these numbers, that lessens the profitability of the deal because you got to factor in the money you spend getting it up to speed. But this is solid deal, seems like a good market. And you said buy under market comps. I always want to buy under market comps whether I’m buying on the market or off the market just because –

Dave:
You should.

Henry:
I just always want to get a deal.

Dave:
Especially in Florida right now, you have negotiating leverage. Go get yourself a deal. Obviously do the full analysis. Henry and I are using really high level numbers here. Go run it through the BiggerPockets Calculator, go biggerpockets.com/calculator, do the analysis, figure out if it’s actually going to cash flow, but I think your prospects are strong. Now there was another question in here, Henry, where Trent asked, “Should I factor in future rent increases or is it better to base my numbers only on current rents?” You and I actually talked about this recently, but I think where we both came out to in this market right now is unless you’re going to do renovation to push up rents and do something you control, I personally wouldn’t. What do you think?

Henry:
This is the market to be extremely conservative. So run it based on what you know now. Florida, like you said, is in a correction. A lot of people weren’t expecting that. So if they didn’t factor those things into their numbers when they bought those deals, they’re hurting right now. So don’t overestimate what you think rents are going to go up to. Underwrite it where it is today. And if it’s working right now, I feel a lot better about doing that deal than if it doesn’t work great now, but it works great in three years if rent goes up. I don’t like that. I don’t like that thought process. All right, let’s move on to our third question, and it comes from a BiggerPockets member named Angela. And she asks, “If I’m going to sell a flip for $500,000 and make 80,000 to $100,000 profit, is it worth putting the money into a 1031 exchange?
I don’t want to buy another property of that value. I would like to buy two to three long-term rentals next.”

Dave:
All right. Well, Angela, I guess I’m the bearer of bad news today with people, but I got to tell you, Angela, I don’t think you can do a 1031 on a flip. I am almost sure. I’m not a tax advisor, but I do think it is sort of carved out that properties that are sold and used as 1031 have to be held as an investment, not for immediate resale. Flips are classified differently as a dealer property. The only way to flip and get that kind of tax advantage is to do a live-in flip, which is even better than a 1031 because you get the tax-free gains, but you don’t even need to immediately put it into a property and go through the whole rig and role of a 1031. So Angela, I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but you do ask a good question around reinvesting and using a 1031 and whether it’s worthwhile.
I’m going to say hard yes on this on a 1031. I have used it many times and I love it. It’s stressful as all hell, but it is worth it. For anyone who doesn’t know, the 1031 is basically when you sell an investment property, you can take all of the profit that you make and reinvest it into another property without the intermediary step of paying taxes. For example, if you went out and sold stock, you would have to pay tax on it and then you could go buy more stock, but at 80% of what your profit was because you just paid 20% in capital gains tax. One of the magical things about real estate is that you could just take a hundred percent of your profit, reinvest it into a new property, and it’s incredible because that compounds over time. You can just keep trading up and buying more and more and more.
You can die without ever paying that tax and give your heirs a beneficial real estate situation. There’s all sorts of benefits to it. The stressful part of it is that you have to identify the property you’re going to buy within 45 days and close on it within 180.
The closing on it, in my opinion, is really not a big deal, but you have to find properties, which can be a little stressful, especially in a market like now where deal flow is a little bit harder to come by. That said, why not try it in my opinion? Because the worst case scenario is you don’t find a good property in 45 days and then you just pay the tax, which is what you would’ve done anyway. You do have some fees to pay a 1031 intermediary, that might cost a thousand, $2,000, but I would risk the $1,000, $2,000 in fees for the potential benefit of that all day. Personally, I don’t know what you think.

Henry:
I think that that’s the approach. I think, and I have seen what happens with investors is they want a 1031 and they’re so scared of paying the tax that they buy a bad deal because they need the 1031. But remember, you’ve got to buy something of like value or higher. And so they’re paying more for a bad deal and they end up bleeding out more money because of that bad deal than they would have if they just paid the taxes. So make sure you don’t just do it because you have to 1031. It’s got to be a deal that pencils and makes sense and you got to be willing to say, “Nope, I’m not going to buy that. I’d rather just eat the taxes than risk it on a deal that I’m not so sure about.”

Dave:
I totally agree. It doesn’t give you that much cushion. You’re saving some equity, but I wouldn’t justify buying a bad deal because I had 1031 money. What I have done in the past is bought a deal at a lower LTV to make it cashflow, where I’ll put money into a deal that might not cash flow at 20%. I’ll put 30% into it because I like the asset, not because I’m like, “Oh, I just need to put my money elsewhere.” But I’m like, “Okay, I can make this cashflow by just putting 30% down or 35% down, and it’s a really good asset that’s safe and is going to do well for me.” I have done that successfully multiple times, and I like that. I like that approach. I think I’m probably going to do another one this year and I might do another one next year I’ve been thinking about.
And based on what you just said, I’m starting to think maybe what I should do, and maybe this is good advice for people, is come up with my criteria of what I will buy before I sell the house because it does get tempting. You’re like, “You don’t want to pay the tax. I could look at a thin deal.” Maybe set your buy box and criteria
Before you sell and then just have a easy go, no go on these kinds of decisions because it can be stressful.

Henry:
Yeah. I think you got to just come to terms with the idea that you may have to pay taxes. You just need to be okay with that and then go shopping.

Dave:
Hot take. People are going to disagree with me on this. People spend way too much time thinking about how to optimize their taxes and not enough amount of time about just like.

Henry:
Man, I get so annoyed when people. All the time. If I tell somebody, oh, I just flipped this and we made that, or I had a student flip this and they made that and everybody, what about the taxes? You got to pay the. Yeah, it’s called a capital gain. A gain means I made money. Making money is awesome.

Dave:
Unbelievable.

Henry:
That’s what I want to do.

Dave:
I remember I was talking to someone, wealthy, successful person who was complaining to me that he had to write a seven-figure check to the IRS, so over a million dollars. And I was like, “Cool. Give me all your income for the year and I’ll write that check. No problem. No problem.” I think real estate investors also get very spoiled because we have the best tax. It’s the best tax advantages of any asset class. Just the fact that you can make all this money and only pay 20% tax at worst, that’s still pretty good. Now, I still try and optimize for my taxes too, of course.

Henry:
As you should. But

Dave:
Don’t make a bad business. That’s the difference. Don’t make a bad business decision because it has a good tax outcome. That is dumb. If you could get both, great, but do not make a bad business decision to get a good tax outcome.

Henry:
I’ve literally heard people say, “Yeah, you made $100,000, but you had to pay $40,000 in taxes.”

Dave:
Still 60 grand more than you.

Henry:
Yeah, I want that problem. Yeah.

Dave:
Great problem

Henry:
With that. So you’re saying you wouldn’t have done the deal, so you wouldn’t have to pay 40 grand in taxes and put 60 in your pocket out of here. Capital gains taxes are a tax on a gain. A gain is what you’re trying to shoot for. Look for ways to offset your taxes as you should, but don’t be scared of them. It takes some planning. Yes. Is it annoying? Yes. Especially annoying if you blow all your profits before you cut that tax check, but conceptually, it’s a good thing.

Dave:
Yeah. There was one other thing I wanted to mention here because she did ask, she said, “I would like to buy two to three long-term rentals.” That’s an underrated part of a 1031 is you can split it into multiple

Henry:
Properties.

Dave:
It’s a really good option. And you can actually, what I’ve done in the past, I think this is a really good way to do it, is you have to identify your properties and you could do up to four. It’s either three or four depending on certain criteria and price points, but you can identify three or four.
Identify at the maximum that you can, and that gives you 180 days to close. So that gives you time to work with multiple sellers. Maybe you don’t buy all three of them, maybe you buy two of them, maybe you buy one of them, maybe you buy none of them, but I really recommend thinking about it that way and trying to spread into multiple properties. If you can, that’s a great way to level up, and it gives you more optionality and more leverage when you go negotiate with sellers during your closing process. So I like that approach, Angela. All right, that’s our third question, but we have one more for you that I think we might disagree on, but I’m curious to hear your opinion on this. We’ll get to that right after this quick break. Stick with us.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. Henry and I are here answering your questions, questions of the BiggerPockets community. We got a good one for our last question of the day. This question comes from Tammy in Fontana, California, posted on the BiggerPockets Forum. She says, “I have a rental in Kansas City that’s gone into serious disrepair. I’d like to sell because it’s my only property in this market. One option is to take a cash offer that will almost certainly be breakeven. The other option is to make some repairs for around 45K that would likely yield 20 to 30K after the sale. What are your thoughts?” I know my answer. What’s yours?

Henry:
Okay. So with the information that I have, and I’m considering the market that we’re currently in, I am probably not going to risk the 45 grand to make 20 or 30. I’m probably going to sell it and be done and take the cash offer and it’s a breakeven. I’m assuming that’s a true breakeven, meaning if you’ve made money to this point via cash flow, you get to keep all that. That’s awesome. You don’t have to give it back. You just don’t get a check at the end of the day. You get to walk away and be done and go invest in another market where you maybe have other properties. My concern with spending the 45,000 is that there’s no guarantee that it’s actually going to yield you 20 to 30,000. You could spend 45,000 and you could totally break even on that 45,000. You’ll get more money, but you’ll probably only get 45,000 more with days on market, depending on the condition of the property, where it’s located.
There’s so many factors that are going to go into, is that actually going to make you money? Just based on this limited information, I’m probably going to take the breakeven and move on.

Dave:
Take the cash, Tammy. Just take that cash. This is a no-brainer for me. I’m with you on everything here. First and foremost, I think, sorry that you’re in a bad situation, in serious disrepair, you can get out of a bad situation at breakeven. We call that a win.

Henry:
That’s a win. You call that a

Dave:
Win, right? Obviously you shouldn’t be doing this a lot, but these things happen, right?

Henry:
Yep.

Dave:
You get out of a situation you don’t want to be in, you get to walk away, you call that a win. Personally, I say, “Hey, I got out of it. I learned something and I’m going to spend the next three months instead of managing a renovation in a market I don’t even want to be in and a property I don’t like. I’m going to figure out what my next move is and what a better use of my time and capital is going to be in my next investment.”

Henry:
And

Dave:
I actually just made this decision. I was talking before about getting out of a market. I had this exact decision. Numbers are kind of close actually about whether I wanted to do a renovation or not, and I put it on the market and I got exactly what I wanted. I think I did a little better than breakeven because I bought it well. And so the equity I walked into more than covered my transaction costs, which is exactly what I needed to break even. And I made really good cash flow on that property for several years. So all in all, still did well. I don’t need to spend the next several months worrying about this. I think this one’s an easy one.

Henry:
Trust me, Tammy, when you get to the closing table at that cash offer and you break even and that property is gone, it’s going to feel like you made a bunch of money. It’s going to

Dave:
Feel like you won the lottery.

Henry:
You’re going to feel so good.

Dave:
It’s so true. You probably will feel better than if you even walk away with 25 grand and your hair will be less gray and you’ll be pretty happy about it.

Henry:
Get out, get out, get out clean. That’s good.

Dave:
Yep. All right. Well, this was fun. I love answering these questions. By the way, if you want your question answered, go on the BiggerPockets forum and ask the hundreds of thousands, millions of members there who are helping each other succeed in real estate investing by just asking questions and sharing knowledge. This type of community is what makes successful real estate investors, and it’s completely free at biggerpockets.com. So go check that out, and then Henry and I might pick your question to answer on the next time we do a forum Q&A question. All right, Henry, we’re out of here. Thanks for being. He’s dancing. He’s ready to go. You look as happy as you would if you just sold a bad property.

Henry:
So people just sold a bad deal. Just sold a bad deal and broke even. Look, every time I’ve been in this situation, because I’ve been in it more than once where I had to get rid of something and I didn’t make any money, it felt awesome.

Dave:
I love it. That’s great. All right. Well, this was a fun episode. Thank you all so much for watching this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. He’s Henry. I’m Dave. We’ll see you next time.

 

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Rising foreclosures signal growth in Texas, Florida loss mitigation


Residential loan servicers and asset managers are facing a sharp rise in defaulted properties across the Sun Belt, as new data from Attom shows foreclosure filings jumping over 10% year-over-year in July. The distress is heavily concentrated in Texas and Florida, which led the nation in both new foreclosure starts and completed bank repossessions, creating an immediate need for lenders to expand regional default servicing capabilities and deploy targeted loss mitigation strategies to manage mounting credit risk.   

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Foreclosures overall jumped higher in July, maintaining their consistent upward trend this year, although current activity points to a return to historical norms overall, according to Attom.

Foreclosure notices, comprising new starts, scheduled auctions and completed bank repossessions, jumped 10.4% from a year ago, the real estate data platform said in its latest report. Compared to June numbers, foreclosures increased by approximately 1%.

“The increase in foreclosure starts and completed foreclosures compared to last year shows that financial pressures remain a factor for some homeowners,” said Attom CEO Rob Barber in a press release.

The latest total represents 39,906 properties or one in every 3,603 housing units in the U.S. A year ago, foreclosures totaled 36,128, equal to one in 3,939 homes. The rate also worsened from one in 3,656 in June.

New lender foreclosure notices appeared on 26,648 homes in July, up 9.6% year over year from 24,302. The number also rose 1.6% from one month earlier, with the uptick reversing a drop in June when starts declined to 26,217.

Meanwhile, completed real estate-owned foreclosures came in at 4,764 units, near level with June’s 4,773. Completions were up 23.2% from a year ago when they landed at 3,866.

Although foreclosure activity may raise some red flags for the lending community, it remains relatively stable when compared to historical benchmarks, Barber said.

“While annual increases have become more common, current volumes indicate that the market remains relatively resilient overall.”

Recent month-to-month foreclosure numbers could be a promising sign of improved homeowner finances when taken into account with newly published delinquency data. Both Intercontinental Exchange and the Mortgage Bankers Association this month found easing of early-stage delinquencies over the spring and summer, but like Attom, they reported still-elevated stress when compared to a year ago.

Where the trouble spots are

Nevada performed the worst among U.S. states with a foreclosure rate of one in every 1,703 units last month. Two Southeastern states followed, with South Carolina posting notices on one in every 2,085 properties and Florida at one in 2,232. 

New foreclosure notices popped up most frequently in Texas, with the Lone Star State reporting 3,306 July starts. Just behind was Florida at 3,277 filings. The nation’s most populous state, California, had the third-highest number with 2,540. 

Texas also led the nation in completed REO repossessions last month, as banks took over ownership of 1,265 foreclosed residential properties. California was a distant second at 616 units, with North Carolina reporting 299.

The Texas cities of Houston and Dallas recorded the most foreclosure completions of large metropolitan areas with 405 and 223, respectively.



A United Pilot Accidentally Broadcast a 7-Minute Rant to Passengers. He’s Hardly the First to Make That Mistake



A recent hot-mic incident left passengers listening to crew criticism before landing. It’s not the first time such an incident has occurred on a commercial carrier.

Has UK food inflation been under the weather? – Bank Underground


India Rimmer, Hannah Copeland and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo

Global extreme weather events may feel far away, but they leave behind a trail of higher prices in our shopping baskets. As outlined in past Monetary Policy Reports, droughts, flooding and heatwaves occurring overseas often impact UK food inflation, which averaged 4.2% in 2025. But how much of the rise in food inflation last year can we blame on the weather? By constructing a new proxy for global weather shocks, we find that they increase UK food prices with a peak impact after one year. In the latest period, our model suggests that weather shocks contributed 0.8 percentage points to food inflation at peak in May 2025. Weather continues to matter for inflation amidst the current El Niño phenomenon.

Food prices have been blown off course

As set out in the August 2025 Monetary Policy Report, last year UK food and non-alcoholic beverage (hereafter ‘food’) inflation rose above its pre-Covid average of around 1.5%, peaking at 5.1% in August. This was partly due to higher labour costs and new packaging regulations, which increased costs for UK food producers.

But global weather shocks also contributed by reducing crop yields and raising food production costs (August 2025 Monetary Policy Report). Droughts in Brazil increased coffee prices while heavy rainfall and plant disease in West Africa raised the price of cocoa. Closer to home, beef and dairy prices rose after dry weather in the UK and elsewhere increased livestock feed costs. This is not a new problem, nor one that will go away. Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events across the globe, with consequences for the economy and monetary policy (Talbot (2026) and NGFS (2026)).

In particular, higher food commodity prices and with some delay UK consumer food prices seem to follow El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, as suggested by Chart 1. ENSO is a weather phenomenon that affects temperature and precipitation across the world and can therefore have a large impact on global weather conditions. It has two opposite phases, El Niño (warmer-than-average) and La Niña (cooler-than-average).


Chart 1: Food commodity prices and UK food inflation

Notes: International Monetary Fund (IMF) food and beverage commodity price inflation and UK food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation alongside moderate-to-strong ENSO phases. Data to March 2026.

Sources: IMF Primary Commodity Prices, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Office for National Statistics (ONS).


A model to chart the storm

We calculate a new high-frequency proxy to estimate the economic impact of global weather shocks. This is a time series of unanticipated weather events, accounting for seasonality and the importance of each country for global agricultural exports. Proxies provide information about shocks that are otherwise difficult to measure.

To build our proxy we use European Commission warnings about crop conditions as outlined in Rembold (2018). This data set provides ten-daily warnings of climate anomalies for crop areas using data on rainfall and vegetation anomalies. To create a monthly series incorporating both positive and negative weather shocks, we calculate the deviation in the number of anomalies from the sample mean for each month and country. We calculate the mean over the entire sample period. As a result, we don’t capture climate trends, though this may be reasonable as our sample period is relatively short. Finally, we weight countries together by their share of global agricultural exports.

Chart 2 shows the resulting global weather shock series alongside moderate-to-strong ENSO phases. In constructing the series we find that localised weather shocks in countries with high weights, for example the US, Brazil, the Netherlands and China, have a large impact. However, as one can see in the chart, there is not such a clear-cut relationship with ENSO phases.


Chart 2: Global weather shock series

Notes: High-frequency global weather shock series alongside moderate-to-strong ENSO phases. Data to February 2026. 

Sources: FAOSTAT, NOAA, Rembold (2018) and authors’ calculations.


To quantify the impact of global extreme weather events on UK food inflation, we estimate a proxy vector autoregression model using Bayesian methods (BVAR), partially identified by our new weather shocks series. The model builds on the methodology described in Arias et al (2021) and Copeland et al (2025), using a combination of proxies with zero and sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks.

We also use two other proxies, oil supply shocks from Känzig (2021) and gas supply shocks from Alessandri and Gazzani (2025). These help the model to differentiate between weather and energy supply shocks, which have often occurred independently but simultaneously, for example in 2022–23 when global adverse weather conditions coincided with a significant European energy shock.

In the spirit of De Winne and Peersman (2021), the target variable for the weather shock series, used to identify the structural shocks and determine instrument relevance, is a trade-weighted average of the IMF’s commodity price indices for four staple food commodities: wheat, rice, corn and soybeans. These groups make up a significant share of global food production as measured by caloric content and they are strongly affected by weather conditions (De Winne and Peersman (2021)). We also use real oil and gas prices, the sterling effective exchange rate index, a Covid-adjusted measure of UK real GDP, and UK food, energy and headline CPI inflation. The model is estimated on monthly data in log-levels, over a sample period of January 2006 to February 2026.

Results suggest we can blame (some of) it on the weather

Chart 3 shows the modelled impulse responses of UK food and headline CPI inflation to a weather-driven 1% rise in global food commodity prices. Food inflation rises by around 0.15 percentage points at peak after 12 months, while headline inflation increases by 0.09 percentage points, reflecting higher food, energy and core inflation. The rise in food inflation comes through with a lag, but is quite persistent, lasting for around 2½ years.


Chart 3: Impulse response functions of UK food and headline CPI inflation to global weather shocks scaled to increase grain commodity prices by 1% on impact

Notes: Impulse responses to the identified global weather shocks, normalised to increase grain commodity prices by 1% on impact. Estimation sample: January 2006 to February 2026. The solid line represents the median draw. The shaded areas are the 80% credible intervals.

Source: Authors’ calculations.


While our estimates are subject to uncertainty and represent only one approach to quantifying the impact of global weather shocks on consumer prices, the results are broadly consistent with expectations. Global weather shocks impact UK inflation moderately and with a lag, unsurprising given the length of harvest cycles. They also appear to have broad-based inflation impacts (NGFS (2026)) and seem to transmit to food and headline inflation indirectly, including via increased energy demand and prices. Higher energy prices may reflect weather shocks increasing demand for oil and gas via disruptions to biofuel production, for example. Similar studies also find moderate rises in energy prices in response to harvest shocks (Peersman (2022)). The impact to UK energy inflation in our model is non-trivial, 0.4 percentage points at peak.

Chart 4 presents the estimated historical contribution of global weather shocks to UK food inflation alongside moderate-to-strong ENSO phases. In the latest period, the model suggests that global weather shocks made a peak contribution of 0.8 percentage points in May 2025, when food inflation was 4.4%. This faded by September and more recently has been pushing down on food inflation in the UK. Although our proxy does not perfectly capture ENSO events, periods of moderate-to-strong ENSO generally coincide with higher UK food inflation, with varying lags and magnitudes. For example, the model estimates that weather shocks contributed 1.7 percentage points to UK food inflation at their peak in 2017, following the strong 2015–16 El Niño.


Chart 4: Historical decomposition of past contribution of global weather shocks to UK food inflation

Notes: Historical contribution of global weather shocks to UK food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation, alongside moderate-to-strong ENSO phases. Data to February 2026.

Sources: Bank of England Monetary Policy Reports, NOAA, ONS and authors’ calculations.


Conclusion

By constructing a new high-frequency series of weather shocks, we have estimated that extreme global weather events have played a non-trivial role in UK food and headline inflation over the past two decades. Our results suggest that global weather disruption can have a significant, lagged, and persistent impact on UK consumer food prices. 

As our proxy is constructed using data available in near real-time and weather shocks feed through to UK consumer prices with a lag, with further refinement this model has the potential to estimate the impact of current global weather shocks over the monetary policy-relevant horizon.


India Rimmer works in the Bank’s International Surveillance Division, and Hannah Copeland and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo work in the Bank’s Structural Economics Division.

If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.

Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.

Coinbase CEO Says He May Leave California Due To Proposed Confiscation Tax: Deeply Un-American


Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong addressed the proposed confiscation tax in California, calling it “deeply un-American” and saying he is considering leaving the state. The comments were made during the Katie Miller Podcast, where Armstrong addressed a litany of issues surrounding crypto and the policies that impact the emerging Fintech sector.

The confiscation tax is set to be on the ballot in California this November. Officially called the“2026 Billionaire Tax Act,” the measure would confiscate 5% of any billionaire’s holdings, including unrealized gains in public and private securities. Theoretically, a targeted individual could see their control of a firm undermined or be forced to sell securities or borrow to cover the cost. And some bureaucrat would be enlisted to determine how much everything is actually valued – a terrifying concept. This would apply to affluent individuals and married couples who are residents as of January 1, 2026. It also opens the door to future taxes on individuals who are not considered billionaires. The proposal has already caused an estimated $2 trillion in net wealth to flee the state, with Texas and Florida as the biggest beneficiaries.

This past March, the Hoover Institution based at Stanford University shared that nearly 30% of the tax’s targets had already left the state.  The report anticipates that the tax could raise up to $40 billion over 5 years, nowhere near the $100 billion goal. Because wealth has already left California, the net result could be lower state tax revenues, and that loss would be permanent. Over time, the confiscation tax could have the exact opposite effect of its described goal of raising more money for the state of California.

Additionally, California has been plagued by profound fraud and failed projects, depicting a state government that is a poor fiduciary of taxpayers’ funds. Tens of billions of dollars have been lost to health care fraud, and the proposed high-speed train project has spent billions of dollars, has not laid high-speed track on the main line, and has no operating trains. Groundbreaking for the train took place in 2015, over ten years ago.

It is difficult to understand how more money for the state of California will solve current problems and will most likely exacerbate them.

Armstrong believes seizing assets is probably unconstitutional. He views the confiscation tax as like a “third-world country” and a dangerous path to pursue.

“I think it is bad for the state and bad for America,” said Armstrong, who added they are considering any and all options in terms of relocation.

If Armstrong and Coinbase leave California, the state will lose a growing, innovative firm that employs around 1,000 individuals. But if Coinbase departs California, they will join a growing list of firms that have made the same decision, which also includes looking out for their shareholders

 



The Bond Market Is Doing Something That Hasn’t Been Observed in Nearly 20 Years. Should Investors Be Nervous?


Interesting things are happening in the bond market, and “interesting” does not mean good news for bond investors. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond recently rose to its highest level since 2007. As of this writing, the 30-year Treasury yield is about 5.172%, up about 65 basis points from its 52-week low.

Some bond investors are worried that U.S. government borrowing has become unsustainable, and are demanding higher yields on long-term government debt.

How nervous should you be about higher yields on the 30-year Treasury bond? At the moment: not very. Let’s look at what’s happening in the bond market and see what it might mean for your investments.

Many bond ETFs have delivered negative returns in recent years due to rising interest rates. Image source: Getty Images.

What’s driving higher bond yields?

Just because the 30-year Treasury bond yield is over 5% doesn’t mean there’s going to be a government debt crisis or a recession or a stock market crash. There are a few other causes of higher bond yields that are not necessarily bad news for Treasury bond investors.

One reason for higher yields on Treasury bonds is higher inflation and strong economic growth. If bond investors believe that higher inflation (and higher interest rates) are here to stay, they will demand higher yields on long-term debt. This is a natural consequence of strong economic growth and inflation remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. It doesn’t mean a debt crisis is coming; it might just mean that the bond market is repricing the risk of long-term debt.

Another cause of higher long-term Treasury bond yields is the recent increase in borrowing by major tech companies that are issuing hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate bonds to pay for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. These corporate bonds from AI hyperscalers are adding supply to the bond market, driving down prices for long-duration U.S. government bonds.

Bond yields and bond prices go up and down

Bond yields are an interesting data point to follow in financial markets because they represent the price of money. U.S. Treasury bonds are defined as offering a “risk-free” rate of return, so when the yield on long-term U.S. Treasuries goes up, it can make some investors nervous. It’s often seen as a sign that “bond vigilantes” are coming to punish the U.S. government for borrowing too much money, or that investors are losing confidence in the federal government’s ability to pay its debts.

Unless you’re a professional bond trader who’s managing money for a large institutional investor, you probably shouldn’t worry too much about short-term moves in the bond market. Bond yields and bond prices fluctuate for all kinds of complex reasons, just like stocks. Short-term volatility is normal, and it’s better to stay the course than to make any knee-jerk moves out of fear.

How to invest in bonds now

Deciding which bond ETFs to buy for your portfolio depends on your risk tolerance and what you believe about the future. Long-dated bonds, like 30-year Treasuries, tend to be more sensitive to the risk of rising interest rates.

If you believe that the national debt is too high and interest rates are likely to go higher, you probably shouldn’t buy long-term Treasury bonds like the ones held by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT -0.20%). This bond ETF has suffered from the past few years of rising interest rates. Its average annual total return has been negative (-8.18%) for the past five years.

iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Stock Quote

iShares Trust – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Today’s Change

(-0.20%) $-0.17

Current Price

$83.30

A short-term bond ETF might be a better choice for many investors who are worried about rising interest rates. The Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF (VUSB +0.00%) is much less vulnerable to interest rate risk than long-term Treasuries. This Vanguard bond fund has delivered average annual returns (by net asset value) of 3.54% over the past five years and 5.25% over the past three years.

Vanguard Bond Index Funds - Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF Stock Quote

Vanguard Bond Index Funds – Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF

Today’s Change

(0.00%) $0.00

Current Price

$49.76

The bond ETF I own: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)

Personally, I don’t believe in buying lots of long-term bonds. I don’t think 30-year Treasuries are the best choice for my portfolio. Instead, I buy the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND -0.12%).

This bond fund owns 11,451 bonds of all types, including Treasuries and corporate bonds, with a diverse range of bond durations. Like other bond ETFs, its performance has struggled in recent years, with an average annual return of -0.42% over the past five years.

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF Stock Quote

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

Today’s Change

(-0.12%) $-0.09

Current Price

$72.58

But over the past 19 years, since the fund’s inception in April 2007, BND has delivered average annual returns of 3.00%. Interest rates fluctuate, and some bond prices will go up or down, but over the long run, I believe the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF is one of the best low-cost ways to include bonds in my portfolio.

Is UK productivity growth low? A historical and cross-country perspective – Bank Underground


Sophie Piton and Fabrizio Cadamagnani

A lot has been written about UK productivity and how weak it’s been in recent years. This post assesses UK productivity trends in a historical and cross-country perspective. Productivity growth has been weak across G7 economies over the past two decades, reflecting the end of the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution and the flattening gains from globalisation. The slowdown was particularly large in the UK, mainly because it experienced a larger decline in the share of manufacturing than peers and then because of the impact of Brexit. In recent years, US productivity growth has been accelerating thanks to tech, offering some optimism for the future of UK productivity.

Productivity growth is of key interest to policymakers including the Monetary Policy Committee as it determines the ‘speed limit’ of the economy in the short/medium run and is the primary driver of living standards in the long run. Since the global financial crisis (GFC), the annual growth rate of UK labour productivity (output per hour) has been lower than in the previous century (Chart 1). Productivity growth has been weak across advanced economies, but the UK has been below the US and EA19 average, averaging 0.5% for the market sector over 2008 to 2025 (Table A). The US has averaged 1.7%, well above peers, partly driven by strong productivity growth since Covid.


Table A: Labour productivity (output per hour) annual growth rate for the market sector, annual average

UK US FR DE EA19
1998–2007 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9%
2008–19 0.3% 1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0%
2020–25 Q3 0.7% 2.2% -0.3% 0.5% 0.6%

Note: ‘Business sector’ is the business sector in the US, the market sector in the UK and the total economy excluding mostly public sectors and real estate in Europe.

Sources: Authors’ calculations using BLS, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics (ONS).


Chart 1: Output per hour for the total economy, annual growth rate

Source: Authors’ calculations using the Long-Term Productivity Database, 2026 edition.


The ICT revolution and the high productivity growth of the 1990s/2000s

The manufacturing and tech services sectors experienced an exceptional transformation in the 1990s and early 2000s with unprecedented productivity gains (Chart 2 panel A). This transformation reflects the adoption of new general-purpose technologies following the ICT revolution (diffusion of computers, internet, and enterprise software). In addition, strong global competition forced the exit of less productive manufacturing firms in the UK and other advanced economies, and incentivised surviving firms to offshore their low-productive activities (this reduced the manufacturing sector’s share of employment in all G7 economies – Chart 2 panel B). Overall, the result was very high growth of labour productivity in both manufacturing and tech services, which lifted aggregate productivity growth.


Chart 2: The exceptional performance of the manufacturing sector in the decade before the GFC

Panel A: UK annual labour productivity growth (five-year moving average), 1970–2024

Panel B: Share of manufacturing in total employment, per cent

Note: Labour productivity is output per hour.

Sources: Authors’ calculations using ONS MFP 2025 release (panel A) and STAN 2025 release (panel B).


The decline in productivity growth from the mid-2000s

There are discussions as to when the productivity decline started, the latest evidence suggesting it started as early as the mid-2000s, before the GFC. This decline is common across all G7 economies, reflecting weak total factor productivity (TFP) more than weak capital deepening. The literature suggests it marks the end of the ICT revolution but also reflects the flattening of the gains from globalisation.

While a weakening of productivity growth could be expected after firms upgraded their production processes and productivity reached much higher levels, researchers have found the scale of this slowing puzzling given the continuing high investment in R&D in these sectors after the GFC (for example Lashkari and Pearce (2024) or Goldin et al (2024)). Some of the explanations proposed for the productivity slowdown in the US point to IT innovation leading to a decline in business dynamism, in particular in the manufacturing sector, and an increase in sales concentration among a few large firms; this high level of concentration discourages innovation and results in a slowdown in productivity growth over the long run. However, while the evidence on the decline in business dynamism is stark in the US, the evidence is more mixed across the Atlantic and in the UK in particular (for example Gutierrez and Piton (2020)), where productivity slowed down the most.

Even if productivity growth in manufacturing declined materially (‘within effect’), it was still above the average of the other sectors (Chart 2 panel A). However, the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP also declined substantially (‘between effect’). These two effects meant that the contribution of manufacturing to total economy productivity declined significantly. As a result, in accounting terms, manufacturing is the largest contributor to the productivity slowdown across most G7 economies (Chart 3 panel A).


Chart 3: The role of manufacturing in the UK productivity slowdown

Panel A: Total productivity slowdown (201019 versus 199807, per cent) and manufacturing sector contribution (within + between effects, percentage points)

Panel B: UK annual average productivity growth (market sector, per cent) and sector contributions (percentage points)

Sources: Authors’ calculations using STAN 2025 release (panel A) and ONS MFP 2025 release (panel B).

* US productivity data by industry in STAN starts in 1999. Panel A shows the contribution of manufacturing, both its ‘within’ and ‘between’ effects, to total economy productivity growth. Panel B shows within-industry contributions using the Tang-Wang methodology for market sector only. Productivity is output per hour.


Measured UK market-sector productivity growth was 0.3% per year on average over 2008–19, very weak both in absolute terms and relative to other G7 economies (Chart 1 and Table A). There is a large academic literature on the reasons for poor UK performance and still no consensus. We highlight two key drivers.

First, the role of manufacturing. Even though in the 1970s the UK had the largest manufacturing share among G7 countries, the size of the sector declined by more than peers and by the time of the GFC the manufacturing share was the lowest in the G7 group (Chart 2 panel B). A lower manufacturing share helps to explain the UK’s lower aggregate productivity growth, given that productivity is higher in manufacturing than in most other sectors.  

Second, the UK has been affected by measurement issues that have depressed its measured productivity relative to peer countries. The publication of the ONS Bluebook 2021, which introduced important revisions to historical data, and most importantly ‘double deflation’, significantly reduced the measured UK productivity slowdown since the GFC, so the UK is within the G7 range now.  And a revision to the measurement of hours worked, as the ONS moves from a ‘direct’ method to a ‘component’ method to minimise the bias from the secular decline in Labour Force Survey response rates, is likely to lead to further upward revisions to UK productivity growth when implemented – initial estimates suggest a +0.4 percentage points increase in the average annual growth rate over 2008–19.

Productivity developments since the Covid pandemic

Since the pandemic (2020–25), UK market-sector labour productivity has grown at an average of 0.7% per year, significantly lower than 2.2% in the US but slightly higher than the European average of 0.6% (Table A).

The recent supply shocks and data measurement issues challenge the interpretation of UK productivity trends as well as international comparisons in recent years. The pandemic drove large compositional effects, reflecting the fact that the sectors most hit by lockdowns were those with the lowest labour productivity. When focusing on ‘within-industry’ productivity growth, and so abstracting from these compositional effects, we can see that UK labour productivity growth was resilient through Covid and then started to decline in 2023 as the economy slowed down. The timing differs depending on the data source for the measure of hours, but all measures give similar average growth rates for UK productivity over the 2020–25 period.

Brexit has been a key headwind to UK productivity. The Bank of England’s central estimate is that Brexit will leave the level of potential productivity in the UK 3¼% lower than otherwise by the end of 2028, with the effect weighting on productivity growth in the transition to this lower level. There is however still a lot of uncertainty on the magnitude and timing of the Brexit impact. New research suggests larger impacts on trade in services than assumed so far. In any case, it’s likely that in the absence of Brexit UK productivity growth would have been materially higher than in euro area countries over the past six years.

What about the UK productivity level?

Comparing levels of labour productivity is a challenging task and relies on comparable measures of output, hours worked and price levels (comparisons are made in purchasing power parity, or ‘PPP’, terms to account for differences in the cost of living). The ONS publishes a range of estimates using different methods to compute hours worked to compare G7 economies, which suggests that in 2019 UK labour productivity was c.20% lower than US productivity.

Allas and Zenghelis (2025) link the low level of UK productivity relative to its leading peers to the cumulative effect of weak investment rates over several decades. Chart 6 panel A, shows that the UK business investment-to-GDP ratio has been lower than in other G7 economies since the turn of the century. The decline of the manufacturing share of the UK economy is a key reason for this – the UK investment-to-GDP ratio excluding manufacturing has been close to the US and G7 average (Chart 6 panel B).  Some of the relative weakness in UK investment rates in other sectors could also be due to measurement issues, as the UK specialises in industries where intangible investment matters the most and these assets are harder to capture.


Chart 6: The role of manufacturing in the UK investment-to-GDP ratio

Panel A: Market sector investment share in GDP, 1995–2021

Panel B: Market excluding manufacturing sector investment share in GDP, 1995–2021

Sources: Authors’ calculations using EU KLEMS 2025 release.


Tech, the US exception and prospects for UK productivity growth

There’s an active debate on ‘Eurosclerosis’, pointing to the persistent gap in productivity growth between US and European countries in recent decades (Table A). It’s however unclear whether this has translated into a relative improvement in living standards for the US over this period.

The Draghi report on EU competitiveness (2024) highlighted this divergence in productivity growth pointing to the important role of the US tech sector. Indeed, Chart 7 shows that the contribution of IT and other information services (including AI companies) to total US productivity growth is larger than in European economies and the gap has been increasing. In the US, this sector is less than 4% of total output but has contributed 12% to total productivity growth in the last three years. While some of this could reflect early gains from AI, it also reflects strong automation/digitalisation investment following the pandemic. This dynamism in tech is also reflected in strong business creation in the US tech sector not seen in UK data.


Chart 7: Contribution of IT and other information services to total economy annual labour productivity (output per hour) growth, three-year moving averages, percentage points

Sources: Authors’ calculations using STAN 2025 release and ONS February 2026 productivity by division release for the UK.

* EU3 include France, Germany and Italy. IT and other information services correspond to sector J62_63.


Yet, the UK also has a strong tech sector. The contribution of IT and other information services to total economy annual labour productivity growth is larger in the UK than in other European economies (Chart 7), and the main contributor to UK productivity growth in the recent period (Chart 3 panel B).  Cross-country evidence suggests that the UK is just behind the US in terms of AI adoption. There are reasons to think AI adoption may materially and persistently lift UK productivity growth, although the timing and magnitude of AI impacts are highly uncertain.

To conclude, while the slowdown in productivity growth in the past two decades was in large part driven by the end of the general-purpose ICT revolution, there is hope that recent developments in AI may mark the start of a new general-purpose revolution. This offers some optimism for the future of UK productivity, although there is still a lot of uncertainty on the nature and timing of the change that AI is going to bring.


Sophie Piton and Fabrizio Cadamagnani work in the Bank’s Structural Economics Division.

If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.

Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.

How AI Is Changing Online Courses, Coaching, and Client Results


Catch the Full Episode:

Overview

When live events went virtual almost overnight, everyone had a hard deadline forcing the change. John Jantsch sits down with Blue Melnick, co-founder of Sage Event Management, to talk about a shift he thinks is bigger and quieter: AI moving into the coaching, consulting, and course world. Melnick’s take: the opportunity is using AI to get your clients better results, faster, versus just getting more done yourself.

The conversation digs into what Melnick calls the “moment of need.” That’s the 2 a.m. moment when a client’s brain is racing and the only person available is ChatGPT or Claude, not their coach. Melnick and John talk through why specialized knowledge still beats general AI. They dig into why the gap between teaching something and a client applying it is where most coaching programs lose people. They also talk about why courses built the old way (record a video, hope someone finishes it) are giving way to something better.

This one’s for coaches, consultants, agency owners, and course creators ready to put AI to work for their clients and open up a strong opportunity for their business.

Guest Bio

Blue Melnick runs Sage Event Management with his wife and business partner, Barry Baumgartner. Together they’ve produced live events for clients including Tony Robbins and ClickFunnels. Melnick and Baumgartner also run a coaching program built around launching high-ticket offers through virtual live events, and they’ve spent the past 2 years building Obi, an AI co-producer designed to guide clients through implementation instead of leaving them to figure it out on their own. Obi is set to launch publicly in September 2026.

Key Takeaways

  • AI’s shift for coaches and consultants isn’t a temporary disruption like the pandemic’s push to virtual events. AI isn’t going away, so plan for it as permanent.
  • The real leverage isn’t personal productivity: Most people ask what AI can do for them, the bigger opportunity is asking what you can do with AI for your clients.
  • People pay for specialized knowledge, not general information. AI chatbots offer general intelligence, but your years of specific expertise are still what clients are buying.
  • The gap between teaching a client something and that client implementing it is where most coaching programs and courses lose people. Use AI to walk clients across that gap instead of handing them information and hoping.
  • Build programs around the outcome, not around content volume.

Great Moments

    • [02:09] – Melnick traces the AI shift back to ChatGPT 3.5 and the early hype around “prompt cookbooks,” before people realized AI slop was a real problem.
    • [05:23] – Melnick tells the story of a former client bragging about vibe-coding a replacement for their CRM, and why he wants nothing to do with running that infrastructure himself.
    • [09:18] – Melnick riffs on AGI and the “Skynet” fear everyone jokes about, then points to the real opportunity: pairing specialized knowledge with AI.
    • [21:59] – Melnick shares research showing spending on education, free information online, and device access have all climbed together over the past 30 years.
    • [23:30] – Melnick announces Obi’s September 2026 launch and points listeners to changecourse.ai for Barry Baumgartner’s free training.

Memorable Quotes

  • “Just because you have a genius in your pocket doesn’t mean you know what to ask it.” —Blue Melnick
  • “The key to AI making a huge difference is seeing what I can do with AI for my clients, not what AI can do for me.” —Blue Melnick
  • “The desire for knowledge, the desire for people to take you through a specific journey never changes. What changes is the delivery mechanism.” —Blue Melnick
  • “When people get a result, they don’t ask for a refund.” —Blue Melnick

Resources

AI, artificial intelligence, client results, Coaching, coaching industry, consulting, course creators, Marketing, online courses, Small Business

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