When most investors look at the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO 0.06%), they see nothing more than a broad-based, low-fee index fund. What they overlook, however, is a deeper truth hiding in plain sight: Investing in the S&P 500 doesn’t just give you access to the stock market. It also makes you an owner of every pillar supporting the American economy.
Image source: Getty Images.
The S&P 500 is designed to be self-correcting
The S&P 500 index isn’t a static list of companies. When you buy the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, you aren’t buying a snapshot. You’re accessing a mechanism that automatically replaces losers with winners year after year.
While most investors waste their time trying to predict the future, index funds outsource this problem to the market itself. The S&P 500 has survived the dot-com collapse, the 2008 financial crisis, a global pandemic, and the highest interest rate cycle in 40 years. As the chart below shows, each time the market proved resilient and bounced higher after bottoming.
^SPX data by YCharts
Don’t bet on individual stocks
It’s best to think about the S&P 500 as a pyramid with layers. From the foundation to the rooftop, the index contains the cloud computing backbone of the AI economy (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft), the payment networks that process charges every day (Visa, Mastercard), the pharmaceutical companies that manufacture blockbuster drugs (Eli Lilly), and the defense contractors governments around the world rely on for high-stakes intelligence (Palantir Technologies).
In other words, the S&P 500 isn’t a collection of growth stocks. The index is a toll booth collecting fees on civilization’s most essential highways.
Today’s Change
(-0.06%) $-0.40
Current Price
$624.62
Key Data Points
Day’s Range
$623.74 – $626.97
52wk Range
$467.33 – $641.81
Volume
127K
Time is the market-beating variable most investors can’t produce
The reason most investors ultimately underperform the S&P 500 isn’t that they choose the wrong stocks. It’s that they don’t hold on to their positions long enough.
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF makes this kind of structural patience much easier because it isn’t a story that changes with each earnings call. In other words, investing in the S&P 500 doesn’t involve a narrative that you can get bored with or lose trust in.
There are no corporate governance problems, no earnings surprises, and no downgrades from sell-side analysts to panic about. In a market full of macro indicators that fluctuate by the hour, the investor who simply watches from a distance is usually able to accrue a compounding advantage that trading algorithms fail to replicate in the long run.
This is all to say that the best financial decisions you can make are rarely the most exciting ones. Instead, buying optionality through the S&P 500 and increasing your position for a long time allows you to generate meaningful, durable wealth both quietly and cheaply.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Visa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
In this episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast, John Jantsch sits down with Jon Benson, creator of the Video Sales Letter (VSL) and founder of the AI platform Benson. Jon shares how AI is reshaping the world of copywriting, not by replacing human creativity, but by amplifying it.
The conversation explores the evolution of VSLs, why they continue to outperform despite industry skepticism, and how AI is changing the way marketers create, test, and optimize content at scale. Jon also dives into the importance of maintaining a human voice, building ethical persuasion frameworks, and avoiding the trap of generic AI-generated content.
Guest Bio
Jon Benson is a copywriter, entrepreneur, and AI innovator best known for creating the Video Sales Letter (VSL), a format that revolutionized digital marketing. With a background in persuasion and behavioral psychology, Jon has spent decades refining ethical copywriting techniques. He is the founder of Benson, an AI platform trained on high-converting campaigns designed to help businesses create more effective, human-centered marketing.
Key Takeaways
1. AI Should Amplify Creativity, Not Replace It
The real opportunity with AI is turning marketers into better editors, strategists, and decision-makers, not eliminating the human role.
2. VSLs Still Work After 20 Years
Despite claims that they’re outdated, VSLs continue to drive strong results when built on solid messaging and persuasive structure.
3. Words Matter More Than Format
Whether it’s video, text, or ads, the effectiveness of marketing still comes down to the quality of the words and messaging.
4. Most AI Content Fails Due to Lack of Input
Generic prompts produce generic results. AI needs context, personality, and values to generate effective copy.
5. Personality and Values Drive Connection
Great marketing aligns with what customers already believe and value, rather than trying to force persuasion.
6. AI Enables Massive Scale in Testing
Top marketers run hundreds of variations simultaneously, something only possible at scale with AI.
7. Ethical Persuasion Requires Guardrails
Without clear boundaries, AI can drift into manipulative messaging. Defining what to say and what not to say is critical.
8. AI Is a Power Tool, Not a Replacement
Like upgrading from a hammer to a power tool, AI removes manual effort so humans can focus on higher-level creativity.
9. Training AI Is Essential
To get quality output, users must teach AI their voice, values, and audience rather than relying on default behavior.
10. Copywriting Still Requires Strategy
Even with AI, understanding persuasion fundamentals and customer psychology remains essential.
Great Moments
00:01 – AI as a Creative Multiplier John introduces the idea that AI enhances, not replaces, human creativity.
01:16 – The Birth of the VSL Jon shares how Video Sales Letters transformed his career and the marketing landscape.
04:08 – Early Adoption of AI in Copywriting Jon explains his long-term vision for AI-powered copy tools.
06:21 – Are VSLs Overused? Why VSLs continue to perform despite years of skepticism.
08:46 – Why Words Still Win The importance of messaging over format in marketing success.
09:11 – The Problem with Generic AI Content Why most AI-generated content feels robotic and ineffective.
11:40 – The Role of Personality in Copy How values and voice shape better marketing outcomes.
14:26 – AI as a Creative Partner Using AI to enhance, not replace, human creativity.
16:37 – The Power of Testing at Scale How AI enables massive experimentation and optimization.
18:23 – Ethical Guardrails in AI Marketing Why defining boundaries is essential for responsible persuasion.
Memorable Quotes
“The words are the consistent thing. If the words don’t reflect a human, people sense it immediately.”
“AI isn’t the answer, it’s a tool. You still need to bring strategy and voice to it.”
“You’re not trying to convince people, you’re aligning with what they already value.”
“Think of AI as a power tool, it removes the grunt work so you can focus on creativity.”
Update 4/9/26: Deal is back at this link. Hat tip to reader RM
Update 11/25/25: Reposting as it does stack with PayPal pay in 4 and other purchases at Target (non apparel) seem to be triggering the offer as well making it significantly better.
The Offer
PayPal is offering 20% back in points when you shop apparel
Our Verdict
Stacks with the PayPal pay in four promotion. Also looks like you might be able to purchase gift cards from Target and it still triggers the offer.
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“We had work to do before we had the oil price shock,” Daly told Reuters. “With the oil price shock, the work just takes longer. No one’s really sure how long that will last. (Oil shocks) push up inflation if they persist, and they will tug at growth, and what we would have to do as policymakers is balance those risks and make the best decision to get to both of our goals as quickly and easily as we can.”
Daly was unsurprised by the high CPI numbers and is hopeful that the tenuous ceasefire can lead to a lasting peace, which could bring oil prices back down.
“I think this is already showing through to the economy, and a higher CPI number will not be a surprise to anyone,” she said. “The new news is that it looks like the conflict could stabilize, and that the shipping lanes can open, and that we can start to return to something that looks more reasonable for people. But, you know, that’s the uncertain piece.”
Fed likely to wait and see
All of this uncertainty is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines in the near future. Until there is a lasting peace in the Middle East and oil supply returns to its pre-war levels, the central bank will be wary that any cut could lead to higher inflation.
CME FedWatch, which uses the 30-day Fed Funds rate to predict future moves by the Federal Reserve, favors a rate hold into 2027. There is some uncertainty there as Kevin Warsh, if confirmed, will take over for Jerome Powell as Fed chair this summer. He will be tasked by the Trump administration to lower rates, so it will be his job to build a coalition on the Fed for that cause.
Loyalty to employers is quickly fading among the youngest generation in the workforce. Zety’s latest Gen Z Workplace Expectations Report, based on a national survey of 1,001 Gen Z workers in the U.S., reveals a generation navigating widespread burnout while reassessing what makes a job worth investing in long term. As expectations around culture, flexibility, and career growth evolve…
There has been a lot of conjecture about the short-term rental market recently. Many hosts have complained about oversaturation, while increased local restrictions have led many investors to revert to regular yearly tenants or mid-term rentals.
For those committed to booking short-term rental guests, it’s clear that the landscape has shifted, and simply providing a spare room and a few towels will no longer cut it. Increasingly, guests are after luxurious experiences with resort-style residences and are willing to pay top dollar for the privilege.
While glam pads at Coachella or the Catskills are curated and managed by well-heeled, upscale management companies, that doesn’t mean everyday mom-and-pop investors have to be squeezed out of the STR luxury rental experience—or the profits it brings.
Turning Drab to Fab
According to a recent report inForbes, everyone can get in on the luxury trend—whether you own an estate, a small multifamily building, or a condo. Upgrading it with luxury hotel-like amenities has seen a dramatic return to profitability in the STR world.
Stephen Wendell, founder and CEO of Mountain Shore Properties, told Forbes:
“The ‘easy money’ phase is over, but the asset class isn’t. Short-term rentals have matured into a true hospitality business—returns now depend on design, operations, and differentiation, not just owning the asset. Airbnbs can still be a great investment, but travelers now expect hotel-like amenities; therefore, Airbnb owners and operators have had to level up to succeed. I view this as a healthy correction that was inevitable.”
Leveling up means upgrading features such as fire pits, outdoor cooking facilities, and curating interiors accordingly. The investment—according to Rental Scale Up, a subsidiary of the revenue management and market data platform PriceLabs—results in greater revenue and insulation from the vagaries of the rest of the short-term rental arena.
“We’ve adapted our short-term rentals for wellness-focused travelers by prioritizing calm, light-filled spaces with ocean views, private outdoor areas when possible, and a clean, serene design,” Maximillian A. Kostyashkin, CEO of MAK Vacation Rentals, a Miami-based company, told BiggerPockets.
Demand Splits Between Chill and Thrill
Curated luxury stays are increasingly split between rest and relaxation with a focus on wellness and high-energy events such as concerts and sports, according to Airbnb. However, trying to have your rental fit into a one-size-fits-all category is not a good idea, Rental Scale Up advises. Picking a lane, sticking to it, and promoting your stay accordingly is the best bet to gain traction and attract guests.
Whether your short-term rental is catered to the World Cup or wellness, providing the right experience for your guests will bring dividends. As the World Cup is once every four years and wellness is a lifestyle choice without an expiration date, catering to the latter will capture the widest market.
Market researchers forecast that wellness tourism is set to grow by nearly 10% in 2030, from roughly $974.6 billion to over $1.06 trillion, as travelers seek trips geared toward stress reduction, preventive health, and mental recharge. For property owners who can fit it into their budgets, that means adding amenities such as cold plunges, saunas, yoga decks, filtered water, and sleep-optimized bedrooms.
The good news is that it’s not as expensive as it sounds and can generate sizable returns. According to Market Reports World, young professionals, expats, and city dwellers are willing to pay 4.5%–7.5% more in rent per square foot for wellness-themed stays.
“In competitive-priced apartments, the luxury comes from practical touches: spotless presentation, comfortable furnishings, personalized service, and concierge add-ons like in-suite massages, facials, private dining, and beach, spa, or fitness access (where available),” Kostyashkin said. “The goal is to make the stay feel restorative and elevated while still keeping it affordable.”
Safeguarding Your Investment
It’s a good idea to do some research before you upgrade to ensure your market can justify the added expense. AirDNA’s Best Places to Invest in Short-Term Rentals report provides segment-specific rankings that investors can filter according to budget and location.
What is interesting about the report is that home prices are affordable, and the revenue potential is considerable. “This year’s results challenge some of the usual assumptions about where short-term rental opportunities exist,” said Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, in a press release. “When revenue and growth aren’t viewed in isolation, affordability plays a much bigger role in how returns stack up across markets.”
Across the top 10 markets listed, the average home cost $296,000, and the annual revenue potential was $40,500, yielding around 14%. The markets attract year-round demand driven by workforce travel, healthcare, education, and government- or military-related activity. That doesn’t mean upgrading amenities to ensure a more well-rounded, wellness-themed stay won’t be appreciated by travel-weary guests with stressful jobs.
“2026 is one of the strongest environments we’ve seen for short-term rental investment in recent years,” said Rohit Bezewada, CEO of AirDNA, in a press release. “This report lays out the framework to identify the best opportunities, and investors can apply the same approach within AirDNA to evaluate deals at a more granular level.”
AirDNA’s Top Markets to Invest in 2026
Port Arthur, Texas
Abilene, Texas
Downtown Saint Paul, Minnesota
Charleston, West Virginia
Springfield, Illinois
Lake Charles, Louisiana
Montgomery, Alabama
Akron, Ohio
Lebanon, Pennsylvania
Jackson, Mississippi
Cross-referencing this report with AirDNA’s Best Places To Invest In A Short-Term Rental for $250k or Less (unsurprisingly, many of these are in the Midwest) combines affordability with ongoing year-round rental demand. With gross yields just under 20%, these offer a great way to generate revenue without the hassle of chasing rents and dealing with evictions.
With a strong property management team in place, a reliable cleaning service, and stylish, functional finishes, the need to upscale to luxury isn’t a prerequisite with less expensive residences. As the report states:
“The guests booking homes worth $100K–$250K are likely booking for practicality, not luxury. Lean into that practicality by marketing a comfortable space, parking, easy access, and flexible layouts. Aligning the home with how guests actually travel in that market, especially guests on a budget, is key.”
Final Thoughts: FHA Loans and STRs—Turbocharged Scaling
There are distinct advantages to scaling a short-term rental business rather than a regular rental, because under current FHA rules, you can use an FHA loan to buy a home and rent part of it out, provided the home is your primary residence. That is easier with a short-term rental than with a 12-month guest, because yearly tenants usually require their own kitchen and bathroom and want to bring in their own furnishings, while a short-term guest can be limited to one or two rooms that are already furnished.
You’ll have to check your local short-term rental rules to see if renting for under 30 days is permitted. If not, advertising part of your home as a mid-term rental or with a 30-day minimum stay will offer flexibility and a brand-new swath of potential guests, such as travel nurses and workforce housing.
Once you have been in the home for a year, satisfying the FHA’s owner-occupant requirement, you can refinance to a regular mortgage and rinse and repeat with a second property using an FHA loan and renting it as an STR to offset the mortgage payment while saving the 3.5% down payment for your next purchase.
The warning signs were there two decades ago—long before ChatGPT, long before anyone worried about a robot taking their job. Around 2005, something quietly shifted in the American labor market. College degrees kept multiplying. Good jobs did not.
“This is a generation of people that was really given the hardest sell of any generation in history of why they need to go to college,” says Noam Scheiber, a New York Times labor reporter whose new book, Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class, chronicles the revolt brewing inside America’s credentialed workforce. “Everyone, from their parents and family members to the president, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton—talking about how in the 21st century, everyone’s got to go to college … And unfortunately, all of this was happening at the precise moment when a college degree was becoming less valuable than it had been in many decades.”
Scheiber, who graduated in 1998 into what he calls “one of the best years in the history of the world to have graduated from college,” watched the shift unfold from the front row of the labor beat. He remembers a roaring job market, an explosion of startups, offers raining down on anyone with a diploma. The Great Recession of 2008 was the accelerant for what came next. Citing research from Berkeley economist Jesse Rothstein, who previously served as chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, Scheiber notes that employment growth for recent college graduates never returned to its pre-2008 trajectory, even on the eve of the pandemic in 2019. Then COVID hit, upending the board all over again.
courtesy of NBER
The data point that Scheiber returns to most is striking: The New York Federal Reserve has tracked the unemployment rate for recent college graduates since the late 1980s. For roughly three decades, it almost never exceeded the overall unemployment rate. Since 2022, it has stayed stubbornly above it.
“That’s just not something that we saw for 30 years before that,” Scheiber says. “It’s a pretty remarkable shift.”
As many students took out loans to pay for the soaring cost of tuition, they found themselves unable to get the high-paying jobs they needed to see a return on investment. Instead, they found themselves further in debt, living with their parents, and delaying milestones such as getting married or buying a house.
The frustration finds a channel
What filled that gap—between expectation and reality—was frustration. And frustration, it turned out, was organizing.
Starting with three Starbucks stores in Buffalo in the fall of 2021, Scheiber watched union elections spread at that company with exponential force. “I remember sort of January, February of ’22, it just kind of growing exponentially,” he says. “It was three, and then it was kind of five to 10, and then it was 20, and it just kept going up.” The movement jumped to Apple retail locations, Trader Joe’s, Amazon warehouses, and REI. As he talked to more and more of these workers, a pattern emerged that sharpened the cliché of the post-recession barista with a bachelor’s degree into something more urgent: a mass phenomenon. “So many of them had gone to college,” he says. “This union campaign was just catching fire.”
It wasn’t just retail. In the summer of 2023, auto workers went on strike for six weeks. Actors and writers walked the picket lines in Hollywood. And something remarkable happened across industries and education levels: Gallup polling at the time showed 70% to 75% of the American public sided with the striking workers.
“The thing that I found really striking,” Scheiber says, “is I would talk to people in very different industries, very different professions. And they all were like, ‘Right on‘ — they were right there with the auto workers, right there with the actors, right there with the writers.” He recalls a refrain from his sources that cut to the bone of a shifting identity: “I may be a doctor or I may be a tech worker, but I’m still a worker.”
That consciousness even reached the upper echelons of medicine. Scheiber reported on roughly 400 primary care doctors at Allina, a major Minnesota healthcare system, who unionized in 2023—the largest group of private-sector physicians to do so in modern memory. “The level of kind of worker consciousness that you would get among the doctors was just so striking.” he says. “They’re just like, ‘Yeah, I’m just a cog in this big machine.’” One of the doctors told him that “it doesn’t matter if you’re an auto worker or a doctor, how much prestige or education you have, you’re just treated the same by all these big companies.”
Downward mobility is ‘incredibly radicalizing’
That sense of shared precarity, Scheiber argues, is reshaping identity in ways that will define American politics for years. A plurality of the early Starbucks organizers he spoke to had volunteered for Bernie Sanders. The support for socialism among college graduates under 35 is, in his telling, not a fringe phenomenon but a mainstream one. He points to figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—a Boston University graduate who worked in restaurants and as a bartender before her political career—as both exceptional and emblematic.
“Downward mobility is incredibly radicalizing,” he says. “If you either grew up upper middle class and that’s no longer available to you, or you grew up with the promise of joining the upper middle class because you went to college like you were told to, and took out your loans. And now there’s no job that is available that enables you to come to the middle class. There are probably some more radicalizing forces in history, but not that many.”
He draws a line from the current moment to a broader historical pattern explored by the political scientist Peter Turchin, whose work on the “overproduction of elites” has gained a wide audience. The theory: when societies produce too many highly educated people competing for too few positions of status and prosperity, the result is political instability. Musical chairs with a shrinking number of seats. Turchin told Fortune last July that he sees signs of his theory “everywhere you look” in modern American life. “Look at the overproduction of university degrees … There is overproduction of university degrees and the value of [the] university degree actually declines.”
In a decade, Scheiber suggests, the shift in class self-identification may be nearly complete. “A large majority of people are just going think of themselves as working class,” he says.
Yet he resists pure fatalism. The word he keeps returning to is agency. These college-educated workers, he argues, are formidable precisely because of what their education gave them—not a guaranteed career, but what one sociologist he quotes calls “class confidence,” the trained ability to figure things out, to navigate bureaucracies, to push for better terms. “Bad things happen to them, like happen to everybody,” Scheiber says, “but they don’t tend to take that lying down.”
‘Creative, brilliant people are going to wake up’
Paige Craig sees the same landscape from a radically different vantage point. The founder of Outlander VC grew up homeless until fifth grade, was recruited by West Point, served in military special operations, and now, from New York, invests in defense technology, robotics, and AI. He frames the coming disruption not as a slow unraveling but as a compression of history itself.
“The Industrial Revolution was a hundred-year process,” Craig says. “The tech revolution was a 30-, 40-year process of going from paper to digital. We’re in an AI revolution that’s going to happen in 10 years. That’s the massive shift.”
At Outlander, Craig recently wrote a 10-year vision statement. Its fifth pillar stopped him cold as he drafted it: “We’re in a decade where we’re going to see the massive dislocation of creative talent,” he says. “Creative, brilliant people are going to wake up this decade and realize the jobs that they thought they were going to have—and the jobs they thought they could have—are gone.”
And yet Craig is not pessimistic about the long arc. He envisions what he calls a “second golden age”—an explosion of entrepreneurship, arts, and science born from the wreckage of displaced labor. He imagines millions of sole proprietors leveraging AI and robotics to build hyperlocal businesses that never would have been profitable before. He talks about limitless demand for healthcare, about turning displaced workers loose on Alzheimer’s research, ocean exploration, and the frontiers of the human body. He recently funded a startup in New York building $1,000 humanoid robots designed to be deployed by the millions—not the $100,000 prototypes that dominate headlines, but cheap enough to generate the training data that could make them truly useful.
“I hope that this freedom of labor and this massive productivity lead to this second golden age,” Craig says, “where we realize as societies that we can actually spend money on the arts, storytelling, and the creativity that makes humans blossom. Then the hard sciences where we push the boundaries of space travel and minerals and resources. That is where I think we go.”
But he does not minimize the turbulence of the transition. “It’s not that we have the blue-collar being dislocated,” he says. “It’s the most creative, educated, smart part of our society that in this decade is going to realize they don’t have jobs.”
The view from the eye of the storm
From his apartment on the Embarcadero in San Francisco—”right in the eye of the storm,” as he puts it — Sumir Chadha is watching the same wave approach from yet another angle. The co-founder and managing director of WestBridge Capital, a $7 billion India-focused evergreen fund, Chadha splits his time between Bangalore and the Bay Area. He is measured by temperament, analytical by training (Princeton, Harvard, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey), and unusually candid about what keeps him up at night.
AI-powered coding tools, he says, have already devastated the SaaS sector—what analysts call the “SaaSpocalypse or the “SaaSacre.” The productivity gains are not theoretical. “I had dinner with one of my entrepreneurs last night,” he says. “He’s talking about what Claude Code is doing to their software development. He said it’s not 10x, it’s like 100x better than what they had before.”
The human cost follows quickly. That same entrepreneur runs a 1,500-person company. He told Chadha that his 300-person implementation team could be reduced to 30 or 40 with AI. “They’re doing a layoff for about 300 engineers, man,” Chadha says. “Which is pretty sad.”
“I worry about the next three years,” he says plainly. “There’s going to be this tale of haves and have-nots that’s just going to thicken and create a lot of social tension.” He pauses. “I’ve taken some security measures at my house—things I never worried about.” He and his girlfriend have applied for European Union citizenship as a contingency. “I don’t think we’re ready for it.”
Pressed on whether he truly believes social unrest is possible in America, Chadha does not flinch. “I think there’s a 10%, 15% scenario that’s a little scary,” he says. “And I hope we don’t come to that. I’m not saying we will. But there’s some chance that it could get pretty tough in the next couple of years.”
He remains bullish on the technology itself and on India’s long-term trajectory. Westbridge has invested roughly $1 billion in eight or nine AI companies, nearly all of which are scaling rapidly. But he draws a sharp distinction between where wealth is being created and where pain will be felt first. “The U.S.—we are such an amazing, dynamic economy. Things move faster here than Europe, faster than India, faster than anywhere,” he says. “I think we’re kind of the front line of everything.”
The speed of the clock
All three men—a labor journalist, a defense-world venture capitalist, a globalist fund manager—are converging on the same conclusion from radically different vantage points: that AI is not the origin of this story, only its most dramatic chapter. The college bargain that a generation of Americans was sold (borrow money, earn a degree, join the middle class) has been quietly unraveling for 20 years. What’s coming next may simply be the part that everyone finally notices.
“We haven’t really seen the labor market impacts of AI yet,” Scheiber says. “A little bit in fields like software development, but beyond that, we haven’t really seen it. So it does feel like we may only be at the beginning of it.”
There is a question of tempo. Scheiber is skeptical of forecasts projecting mass white-collar displacement in 18 months. Large organizations, he notes, are deeply bureaucratic; inertia is a powerful force. “Even if theoretically you could replace 95% of your junior consultants in a year-and-a-half, you’re not going to do that,” he says. His gut tells him the disruption will play out over a decade, not a quarter.
But even at a slower clock, the political consequences compound. “Even if we see the unemployment rate for recent college grads tick up a few tenths of a percentage point every year for five years,” he says, “that’s gonna be pretty destabilizing.”
Craig agrees and frames the challenge in terms of historical analogy. Past technological revolutions allowed generations to absorb the shock. This one compresses a century of change into a decade. “It used to be, you could mark change with graveyards,” he says. “But the scope of change and the speed of change is so massive now. That’s the crazy part. My kids and their kids, we’re all going to be together in the middle of this crazy shift.”
Chadha puts it most succinctly: the human and political systems built to absorb disruption were designed for a slower clock.
The question now—for policymakers, employers, investors, and the generation caught in the middle—is whether anyone can build new institutions fast enough to keep up with the machines.
At 9 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $97.78 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a gain of $4.02 compared with yesterday morning and around $31 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$93.76
+4.28%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$108.90
10.21%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$63.68
+53.54%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$93.76
% Change
+4.28%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$108.90
% Change
10.21%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$63.68
% Change
+53.54%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
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Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
KPMGUK has indicated in a recent update that AI no longer needs traditional return on investment in order to be justified. In fact, 65% of UK based respondents claim that their organization would most likely continue to invest in AI regardless of tangible ROI (return on investment). And the majority or 70% of UK business professionals also agree that AI will continue to be a key priority investment even if a recession comes in the next year.
KPMG also revealed that 94% are now either using or planning to use AI agents but maturity varies somewhat.
KPMG also stated in the report that despite a lot of funds being spent by businesses on AI, traditional return on investment isn’t actually needed for them to see some value in the tech.
Nearly two thirds (65%) of UK based respondents stated that their organization may continue to invest in AI regardless of its ability to accurately measure tangible ROI. This, according to KPMG’s AI pulse survey.
KPMG’s recent survey, which includes a panel of business professionals, including over 100 in the United Kingdom, for their views / perspective on a variety of AI themes/narratives, has launched now with informative insights for the first quarter of this year.
The research study revealed that although many organizations say they can measure returns in specific domains, this does not seem to be the main factor or criteria driving ongoing AI focused investments.
The research revealed that the majority of UK based respondents were confident in their organization’s ability to measure ROI across:
productivity (76%)
performance and quality of work (71%)
speed and accuracy of decision‑making (67%)
profitability (64%)
But, confidence drops significantly when it comes to “more strategic or indirect benefits.”
Merely 14% said they were confident in “measuring ROI from improved analytics used by the C‑suite in business decision‑making.”
Respondents also indicated that the skills gap and risk considerations such as data privacy and cybersecurity as the “biggest barriers to demonstrating AI‑related ROI (46%), followed by difficulty quantifying indirect or long‑term benefits (40%).”
The most significant challenges to AI strategy in the next year were risk management such as data privacy and cybersecurity (41%), followed by the quality of “organizational data and employee adoption at 32%.”
Despite these potential significant concerns, the majority or 58% of respondents said their organizations are planning to invest over $50m in AI over the next 12 months, with half of these investing over $100m.
And most or 70% of UK business professionals also agree that AI will continue to be a key priority investment even if a recession occurs. In fact, there is no rea connection or correlation between what happens during an economic slowdown and AI advancements. In fact, tech industry participants tend to focus more heavily on tech advancements and product development during market drawdowns.
Dr Leanne Allen, Head of AI at KPMG UK, explained that there is an ongoing shift in mindset by business professionals from thinking of AI as something that must deliver quick returns to one that considers AI as a sort of long-term investment. Industry participants may be realizing that it as a strategic enabler for enterprise‑wide transformation and this is a vital milestone.