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Dollar dominance is reinforced by the oil trade, but the Iran war could give rise to the ‘petroyuan’
Middle East oil has long been a linchpin of the U.S. dollar’s status as the dominant currency in global trade and reserves, but President Donald Trump’s war on Iran could open the door to China’s currency, according to Deutsche Bank.
In a note on Tuesday, analysts pointed out that the current “petrodollar” regime goes back to a deal struck in 1974 when Saudi Arabia agreed to price its oil in dollars and invest surpluses in U.S. assets.
And because oil is a core input to global manufacturing and transport, supply chains have a natural incentive to dollarize, the note added. Indeed, Mideast oil and gas is used to make petrochemicals, fertilizer, and even helium, which is critical to chipmaking.
“The world saves in dollars in large part because it pays in dollars,” Deutsche Bank said. “The dollar’s dominance in cross-border trade is arguably built on the petrodollar: globally traded oil is priced and invoiced in USD.”
In exchange for Saudi Arabia recycling its dollars back into the U.S., Washington guaranteed the kingdom’s security, which also involved stationing troops in the region, providing advanced weapons, and ensuring free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
That security shield was on display in 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and threatened Saudi Arabia. The U.S. assembled a massive international coalition to quickly defeat Iraq and lower oil prices.
Fast forward to today, and America’s role in the Mideast looks vastly different. While the U.S. and Israeli militaries have severely degraded Iran’s capabilities, the regime still retains enough to combat power to selectively close off the Strait of Hormuz—unless countries negotiate safe passage and pay in Chinese yuan.
At the same time, Iran’s swarms of missiles and drones have inflicted significant damage on U.S. aircraft, radars and bases, while American air-defense systems have failed to completely protect Gulf allies’ critical energy infrastructure.
But even before the Iran war, the petrodollar regime had come under pressure, Deutsche Bank noted. U.S. sanctions on oil from Russia and Iran created an illicit trade that relied on other currencies, like the yuan.
Saudi Arabia also joined mBridge project, a central bank digital currency initiative led by China that takes on the dollar-payment infrastructure.
“The current conflict may expose further fault lines, by challenging the US security umbrella for Gulf infrastructure and the maritime security for global trade in oil,” analysts warned.
GERARD FOUET/AFP via Getty Images
Until the U.S. can neutralize Iran’s salvos, the Gulf will continue to be pummeled. Not only are their oil shipments bottled up in the Persian Gulf, output has been slashed as supplies have nowhere to go.
Efforts by Gulf states to diversify from oil and become international finance and tourism hubs are also at risk amid the Iranian bombardment.
“Damage to Gulf economies could encourage an unwind in their foreign asset savings,” Deutsche Bank said. “In this context, reports that the passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz may be granted in exchange for oil payments in yuan should be closely followed. The conflict could be remembered as a key catalyst for erosion in petrodollar dominance, and the beginnings of the petroyuan.”
Any loss of the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” would also ripple through other areas of global finance, including the bond market. Due the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, the federal government has long been able to issue debt at rates lower than investors would otherwise allow.
To be sure, dollar doomsayers have consistently been proven wrong, and the greenback has surged against other top currencies during the Iran war.
But there’s an even bigger potential threat to the dollar’s dominance than China’s currency: a permanent shift away from globally traded oil and gas.
With energy prices sky high, countries in Asia that rely heavily on Mideast supplies are scrambling to ration oil and gas while turning to coal, nuclear power, and renewables.
Demand for electric vehicles is also up across the globe, with Deutsche Bank saying energy choices of the Global South, Europe and North Asia will be key to track.
“A move away from oil could be as powerful as the pressure to price it in other currencies,” it added. “A world that becomes more self-sufficient in defence and energy could also be a world that holds less USD reserves.”
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How Student Loans Work: Applying, Borrowing, and Repayment
There’s a staggering lack of financial literacy when it comes to how student loans work when paying for college.
Every college financial aid office says “just apply for student loans”, but nobody tells you how student loans work!
Increasingly, tuition continues to rise, saddling millions of students with large amounts of student loan debt. In fact, the average student is graduating with almost $40,000 in student loans. That’s slightly more than a Tesla Model 3 or even a wedding. Without students loans, many people would not even be able to attend college.
For most anyone heading to college, student loans will become a fact of life. But where do student loans come from, how much can you borrow, and what is the true cost? In this article, you’ll learn all about how student loans work.
The Ins and Outs of Student Loans
Student loans are available for undergraduate and graduate students alike. They are based on need, of which income is only one component. Students loans are issued by the government (hence the term Direct Loan – directly from the government). Although, private student loans are also available. The amount issued to a student will depend on the student’s financial situation. The final decision is up to the school.
Financial aid packages are the first step in receiving a student loan. The financial aid package is made up of gift aid (such as grants and scholarships), loans, and work-study programs.
What is the collateral for a student loan? It’s important to remember that the collateral for a student loan is your future earnings. When you buy a car and get a car loan, the collateral for the car loan is the car. So if you don’t pay the car note, the bank can repossess your car. With student loans, it’s important to remember that the collateral is your future earnings. If you don’t repay a student loan, the government can garnish your wages, take your tax returns, and more. Always keep this in mind when borrowing.
How To Apply For A Student Loan
The FAFSA, or Free Application for Federal Student Aid, must be filled out each year to receive financial aid. FAFSA deadlines change each year. You can check the deadlines here. Be sure your FAFSA is submitted on time. Otherwise, a late FAFSA will certainly complicate your financial situation and leave you scrambling to pay for school.
To get an idea of how much financial aid you might be awarded, check the Federal Aid Estimator website.
Upon being “awarded” financial aid, you’ll receive amounts for gift aid and loans. There should also be a breakdown of your school’s cost. Schools display cost information in different ways and the true cost can be off by a wide margin. Depending on what is shown, you may need to ask the school for cost on:
- Tuition
- Housing
- Food
- Travel
- Fees (labs, etc.)
- Books
Add in any other known cost. It’s better to overestimate rather than underestimate. Many students find that they are short on money, even after receiving their financial aid. This is due to many costs that are not accounted for.
Note: The first year is also usually the least expensive year of college. Your college costs will typically rise each year you attend a college.
Actually Applying For Student Loans
Now that you have your financial aid award, you’ll see several “awards” of loans (notice the parenthesis – it’s terrible they call this an award). These loans are subject to the annual student loan limits, which are very low – only $5,500 in year 1.
First, you’ll be offered a Direct Student Loan. This is your child’s loan. It could be subsidized or unsubsidized. With subsidized loans, the government pays your interest while in school. With unsubsidized loans, your interest grows your loan balance while you’re in school. That’s the only real difference. Read our full guide to subsidized vs. unsubsidized loans here.
Second, you may be offered Parent PLUS Loans. These loans are the parent’s loan. Your child has no legal responsibility for this loan. You can borrow, as a parent, for your child’s education. We hate seeing parent’s borrow for their children’s college, but we also know that some parents might not have planned or want to have tough conversations. As a result, a lot of over-borrowing can happen. See our full guide to Parent Student Loans here and make sure you understand the updated Parent PLUS borrowing limits of $20,000 per year, and $65,000 total.
Finally, you can look at using private loans. Many families opt for private loans in-lieu of Parent PLUS Loans. Private loans are taken out in your child’s name, but the parent is the cosigner. This makes both of you responsible. For parents with great credit and income, private loans may offer lower interest rates. But they don’t come with any type of loan forgiveness options, and rarely are the rates actually much better. Borrow at your own risk. You can see our guide to the best private loans here.
Make sure you compare Parent PLUS vs. Private student loans – especially with all the changes moving forward.
How Much Should You Borrow?
Once you have an annual cost for school, subtract out gift aid and any money your parents may have saved up for college. If you have saved up money for college, subtract it out as well. The number you’re left with is not only direct school cost (tuition & housing) but cost needed to live while you’re in school. If you have a job, factor in how much of the above cost it will cover. You should have a final number on cost at this point.
That final number is the amount needed for school loans. The less money in school loans you have to take, the better. As you can see, the amount of loans isn’t just about tuition and books. It should factor in all costs that are associated with being a student.
One caveat about student loans: students will often take the full awarded amount, even if it isn’t needed. If you don’t need the full amount, you can take only what is needed. Taking more loan money than what is needed will cost more in interest and increase your monthly loan payments.
Key Rule Of Thumb: Our key rule of thumb for how much you should borrow is simply to NEVER borrow more than you expect to earn in your first year after graduation. This will help ensure that you never borrow too much and can’t afford to repay it.
If you want to dive into more accurate numbers, you can input all your loans in this calculator and see what repayment looks like: How Much Student Loan Debt Can I Afford Calculator?
Paying Back Your Student Loans
If you have Federal student loans, there are a variety of repayment plans, such as income-driven repayment plans, that can help you pay back your student loans in an affordable way.
You should pick the repayment plan that you can afford to make the payment on every month. If you don’t know where to start, look at using a tool like Student Loan Planner to help you.
The government offers a number of loan features that are not available with non-government loans. These include:
- Forbearance: You don’t have to start paying on student loans until after you graduate.
- Hardship: While in repayment, you can push back payments until your finances improve.
- Low interest: Most loans will have interest rates in the single digits.
- Low origination fees: Fees for disbursed loans are ~1% of the loan value.
- Loan Forgiveness Programs: There are a variety of loan forgiveness programs that federal loans are eligible for.
Here are the repayment plan options at a glance:
If you are enrolled at least half-time, you don’t have to begin making payments on government loans until six months after graduating. Additionally, interest will not accrue until after graduation for subsidized loans, but starts accruing immediately for unsubsidized loans.
According to the latest Student Loan Statistics, the average monthly payment is $503, with a median monthly payment of $290. How much you pay will depend on the repayment plan and interest rate. Note that graduate loans will usually have higher interest rates than undergraduate loans.
Private loans don’t have any options for loan forgiveness, and the deferment rules are strict. You essentially have to make these payments no matter what, just like a mortgage or car loan.
A Necessity for Most Students
With tuition continuing to skyrocket, student loans have become a necessity for virtually any student wanting to attend college. While student loans can be a large source of financing for college, planning for cost and taking only the amount needed will help to avoid being overly saddled with unneeded debt.
Editor: Colin Graves
Reviewed by: Chris Muller
The post How Student Loans Work: Applying, Borrowing, and Repayment appeared first on The College Investor.
Will mortgage rates hit 7% next week?
President Donald Trump repeatedly said talks with Iran on ending the war were going “very well,” even as Iranian officials publicly denied negotiations were taking place and vowed to continue fighting. That disconnect left markets bracing for more headline‑driven swings.
For originators and brokers, the key question is not whether rates might briefly print a 7‑handle, but how borrowers would react if they did.
When mortgage rates previously approached that threshold, “seeing a mortgage rate close to the 7% mark might be initially dispiriting,” loan officer Jay Lessard told MPA, but buyers who could handle the payment often decided “it may be in their interest to move ahead” rather than wait.
What higher‑for‑longer could mean for housing
Freddie Mac’s chief economist Sam Khater warned earlier that even modest shifts in yields could quickly feed through to housing costs. The 30‑year mortgage rates were already averaging about 6.22% before the latest spike, with the odds of any Fed rate cuts this year fading as gas prices surged.
For now, industry veterans viewed 7% not as a certainty, but as a live risk.
[MA, NH, ME, RI] Eastern Bank $750 Checking/Savings Bonus
![[MA, NH, ME, RI] Eastern Bank $750 Checking/Savings Bonus](https://globalinvestmentstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/eastern-bank-750-1024x458-768x344.png "[MA, NH, ME, RI] Eastern Bank $750 Checking/Savings Bonus")
Update 3/28/26: Deal is back until May 8, 2026. To qualify you cannot have had an Eastern bank or HarborOne account after March 7, 2025. Hat tip to reader Other James
Update 10/19/25: Deal is back until November 17th, 2025. Hat tip to reader Midori
Offer at a glance
- Maximum bonus amount: Up to $750
- Availability: MA, NH, ME, RI
- Direct deposit required: Yes, $4,000+
- Additional requirements: See below
- Additional requirements: None
- Hard/soft pull: Soft
- ChexSystems: Yes, sensitive
- Credit card funding: No longer available
- Monthly fees: None
- Early account termination fee: None, bonus will post by January 28, 2020
- Household limit: One
- Expiration date: 9/15/2025
The Offer
Direct link to offer
- Eastern Bank is offering a bonus of up to $750.
- Get $350 when you open a new Checking Account and complete the following requirements: Two or more qualifying direct deposits totaling $4,000 within 90 calendar days of account opening
- Get $250 when you open a new Statement Savings Account and qualify
- Deposit $15,000 within first 30 calendar days of account opening
- Maintain a $15,000 average daily balance over a 90-calendar-day period
- Get $750 total when you do both (An additional $150)
The Fine Print
- Checking Offer: To qualify for the incentive, you must open an Eastern personal checking account between 8/1/2025 and 9/15/2025 and have two or more recurring electronic payroll pension or government benefits direct deposits totaling $4,000 within the first 90 calendar days of the account opening date. Electronic credits (other than payroll, pension, or government benefits) such as person-to-person payments, self-initiated transfers between your accounts at Eastern Bank and other institutions or brokerages (including pension accounts), and payments through third parties such as PayPal or eBay do not qualify as a direct deposit. You must be a new personal checking account customer. New checking customers have not had an Eastern Bank personal checking account or have had a personal checking account relationship with Eastern Bank, or any Bank merged into Eastern Bank since 8/1/2024. 90 calendar days after the account open date, Eastern Bank will determine if an incentive will be paid out based on whether the stated qualifications and the Additional Important Information were met for the Checking Offer. Incentives for qualified accounts will be deposited into customer’s checking account on or before 1/15/2026.
- Savings Offer: To qualify for the incentive, you must open an Eastern Statement Savings Account between 8/1/2025 and 9/15/2025 and deposit $15,000 within the first 30 calendar days of account opening. You must maintain a $15,000 average daily balance over a 90-calendar-day period. This period will begin on the 31st day following account opening. You must be a new Statement Savings customer. New Statement Savings customers have not had an Eastern Bank personal savings or money market account or have had a personal savings or money market account relationship with Eastern Bank, or any Bank merged into Eastern Bank since 8/1/2024. 120 calendar days after the account open date, Eastern Bank will determine if an incentive will be paid out based on whether the stated qualifications and the Additional Important Information were met for the Savings Offer. Incentives for qualified accounts will be deposited into your savings account on or before 2/16/2026.
- Extra Offer: Earn an extra $150 if you open and qualify for both the Checking Offer and the Savings Offer. The checking and savings accounts must be opened within 3 business days of each other. The Primary signer must meet both the Checking Offer and Savings Offer requirements and all other qualifying criteria. The extra $150 for qualified accounts will be deposited into the customer’s checking account on or before 2/16/2026.
- All bank account bonuses are treated as income/interest and as such you have to pay taxes on them
Avoiding Fees
Monthly Fees
Eastern free checking has no monthly fees to worry about.
Early Account Termination Fee
There is no early account termination fee
Our Verdict
There is a $300/$450 checking offer that $450 bonus is obviously better if you want to just do the checking bonus. Statement savings account earns 0.01%. That means the savings bonus works out to be 6.6666% APY. Extra $150 for doing both is comparable to just the $450 checking bonus that is also offered so I don’t think this combined bonus is actually worth doing.
Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:
- A Beginners Guide To Bank Account Bonuses
- Bank Account Quick Reference Table (Spreadsheet) (very useful for sorting bonuses by different parameters)
- PSA: Don’t Call The Bank
- Introduction To ChexSystems
- Banks & Credit Unions That Are ChexSystems Inquiry Sensitive
- What Banks & Credit Unions Do/Don’t Pull ChexSystems?
- How To Use Our Direct Deposit Page For Bank Bonuses Page
- Common Bank Bonus Misconceptions + Why You Should Give Them A Go
- How Many Bank Accounts Can I Safely Open Within A Year For Bank Bonus Purposes?
- Affiliate Links & Bank Bonuses – We Won’t Be Using Them
- Complete List Of Ways To Close Bank Accounts At Each Bank
- Banks That Allow/Don’t Allow Out Of State Checking Applications
- Bank Bonus Posting Times
From the Supreme Court’s Cox ruling to Primary Wave’s Kobalt deal… it’s MBW’s weekly round-up
Welcome to Music Business Worldwide’s Weekly Round-up – where we make sure you caught the five biggest stories to hit our headlines over the past seven days. MBW’s Round-up is exclusively supported by BMI, a global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music.
This week, Primary Wave Music announced a definitive agreement to acquire Kobalt from Francisco Partners.
Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court unanimously sided with internet service provider Cox Communications in a landmark music piracy case brought by the major record labels.
Elsewhere, Domain Capital Group closed $768 million in equity commitments for its second entertainment fund.
Also this week, BMG revealed its annual revenues dipped to €900 million in 2025, but the Bertelsmann-owned company hit a record EBITDA margin of 32%. BMG‘s catalog investment topped $400 million for the year.
And Firebird entered into a strategic partnership with UK-based artist management company Goodlife Management, the home of Fred again.., The Blessed Madonna, Ki/Ki, and ¥ØU$UK€ ¥UK1MAT$U, among others.
Here are some of the biggest headlines from the past few days…
1. PRIMARY WAVE MUSIC TO ACQUIRE KOBALT FROM FRANCISCO PARTNERS
Primary Wave Music has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Kobalt, which it describes as “one of the world’s premier independent music publishing and technology platforms.”
The transaction includes an investment from Brookfield, a strategic partner to Primary Wave.
According to the companies, the “deal creates a scaled, independent alternative to traditional publishing models, highlighting Kobalt’s best-in-class royalty platform, amra’s global digital collection vehicle, and Primary Wave’s proven ability to grow the value of legendary music IP through creative marketing and other initiatives…” (MBW)
2. US SUPREME COURT SIDES WITH COX COMMUNICATIONS IN LANDMARK MUSIC PIRACY CASE BROUGHT BY RECORD LABELS
The US Supreme Court has ruled that internet service provider Cox Communications cannot be held responsible for music piracy committed by its subscribers, ending a landmark copyright case in which the major record companies had won a $1 billion jury verdict.
The unanimous decision was handed down on Wednesday (March 25).
Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for the Court, said that Cox “neither induced its users’ infringement nor provided a service tailored to infringement.”
Commenting on the decision, Mitch Glazier, RIAA Chairman and CEO, said: “We are disappointed in the Court’s decision vacating a jury’s determination that Cox Communications contributed to mass scale copyright infringement, based on overwhelming evidence that the company knowingly facilitated theft…” (MBW)
3. AFTER TEAMING UP WITH SONY MUSIC PUBLISHING TO ACQUIRE MIRANDA LAMBERT CATALOG, DOMAIN CAPITAL CLOSES $768M ENTERTAINMENT FUND
Domain Capital Group has closed $768 million in equity commitments for its second entertainment fund.
The Atlanta-based private investment management firm said Domain Entertainment Fund II focuses on investments in film libraries, television participation and music catalogs, with additional allocations for literary works, theatrical productions and sports.
The firm added that Fund II includes investments with notable partners including Paramount Pictures and Sony Music Publishing, and features titles and artists including Sonic 3, Friends, The Matrix Trilogy, Miranda Lambert and Thomas Rhett… (MBW)
4. BMG REVENUE DIPPED TO €900M IN 2025 BUT EBITDA MARGIN HIT RECORD 32% – AS CATALOG INVESTMENT TOPPED $400M
BMG generated EUR €900 million (USD $1.02bn) in annual revenues in 2025, down 6.5% YoY on a reported basis, or down 1.5% YoY on an organic basis.
That’s according to a new set of annual fiscal results from the music company’s parent, Bertelsmann, published on March 26.
The revenue decline was largely a deliberate consequence of BMG’s own strategic choices – most notably the divestment of non-core businesses in its Live segment, combined with unfavorable foreign exchange movements driven by the weaker US dollar.
BMG’s annual adjusted operating EBITDA reached an all-time high of EUR €284 million ($321m), up 7.2% YoY compared to the prior year’s record equivalent of €265 million… (MBW)
5. FIREBIRD ACQUIRES MAJORITY STAKE IN GOODLIFE MANAGEMENT, THE HOME OF FRED AGAIN.., THE BLESSED MADONNA, AND MORE
Firebird has entered into a strategic partnership with UK-based artist management company Goodlife Management, the home of Fred again.., The Blessed Madonna, Ki/Ki, and ¥ØU$UK€ ¥UK1MAT$U, among others.
MBW understands that Firebird has acquired a majority stake in the company.
The deal brings Goodlife founders Oliver Sasse, Lucy Sasse, Ellie Shaw, and David Watters — along with their “dynamic team” and talent roster — into Firebird’s expanding ecosystem of management companies, which already includes Mick Management (US/UK), Red Light Management (US/UK), JET Management (US), Hills Artists (US), and Special Projects (UK).
Firebird said the new partnership “significantly bolsters” its presence in the electronic music landscape… (MBW)
Partner message: MBW’s Weekly Round-up is supported by BMI, the global leader in performing rights management, dedicated to supporting songwriters, composers and publishers and championing the value of music. Find out more about BMI here. Music Business Worldwide
3 Social Security Filing Myths That Could Cost Retirees Thousands
When it comes to claiming Social Security, there’s no shortage of advice floating around. Unfortunately, not all of it is good advice.
Following the wrong guidance could result in you making a decision you regret. With that in mind, here are three common Social Security filing myths that could be costly.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. You should claim benefits as early as possible because the program’s going broke
You might hear that it makes sense to claim Social Security as early as possible because the program is running out of money. But while it’s true that Social Security is facing some financial challenges, the program is not at risk of going broke completely.
Right now, the worst-case scenario on the table is benefit cuts. And even if that happens, filing early won’t do you any good. It could, in fact, do you harm.
Though you’re allowed to claim Social Security as early as age 62, for each month you file before full retirement age, your monthly benefits are permanently reduced. Full retirement age is 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later. And if you’re in that category, claiming benefits at 62 could mean facing a lifelong 30% reduction. Ouch.
Even if Social Security does end up cutting benefits, if you reduce your monthly checks by filing early, you’ll end up with that much less money. Say benefits are slashed universally by 20%. If you slash your own benefits first by claiming them early, that 20% reduction will then apply to the smaller amount you’ve locked in. So you shouldn’t base your filing decision on fear of the program going away.
2. You can’t work while receiving benefits
You may be inclined to stop working once you file for Social Security. But you don’t necessarily have to do that.
Once you’ve reached full retirement age, you can earn any amount of money without risking having benefits withheld. Prior to full retirement age, you’ll be subject to an earnings test. And exceeding its limit could mean having benefits withheld and repaid to you later.
But the earnings-test limits may be more generous than you’d think. So before you write off the idea of working once you’ve claimed benefits, look up what the limits entail each year.
You may find that your wages are below the threshold where you’ll have a problem. And again, if you’ve reached your full retirement age, you won’t be restricted on what you can earn at all.
3. You should delay your spousal benefit claim for larger checks
If you didn’t work and/or pay into Social Security to a large enough degree to qualify for benefits, you may be entitled to spousal benefits in retirement. Those max out at 50% of what your spouse is eligible for at their full retirement age.
You may hear that it’s smart to delay your spousal benefit claim past full retirement age for boosted payments. But that perk only applies to retirement benefits being claimed on your own earnings record. There’s no sense in delaying a spousal benefit past your own full retirement age, as it won’t put more money in your pocket.
Social Security will probably end up being an important retirement income stream for you. So don’t let fear or a lack of knowledge lead you to a bad decision you regret later.
The Music Has Stopped in Private Markets
Allocations by institutional investors, represented by public pensions, have plateaued in recent years. This is unsurprising given the sheer volume of capital already committed, combined with the fact that private equity, the larger of the two allocations, has failed to deliver returns comparable to public markets for many years.
The tapering of new institutional commitments, coupled with a clogged exit environment, created pressure across the private-markets ecosystem. Asset managers still had large portfolios to finance, consultants still had asset classes to recommend, and distributors still needed new products to sell. The solution was a structural innovation that allowed the industry to expand its investor base: semi-liquid vehicles designed specifically for individual investors and marketed as the “democratization” of private markets.
These structures typically offer periodic liquidity, often through quarterly redemption windows, while investing in assets that may take years to sell at reliable prices. The appeal is obvious. Investors are offered exposure to private markets together with the appearance of stability and the reassurance that they can redeem capital periodically.
The problem is that this model violates the previously explained principle of finance. Long-duration, difficult-to-price assets should never be financed with short-term liabilities unless a lender of last resort stands behind the structure. When that rule is ignored, the structure is unstable. As long as inflows continue and redemptions remain manageable, it seems advantageous to both investors and fund managers. But once investors begin to withdraw capital, the mismatch between liquidity promises and underlying assets becomes visible very quickly.
History provides many examples of this dynamic. Wildcat banks in the 1800s, trust companies in the early 1900s, and investment bank warehousing facilities in the early 2000s. In each case, when confidence weakened, investors rationally attempted to redeem before others did. It doesn’t take long before investors run, simply in anticipation of other people running – which is the hallmark of a bank or fund run. This risk is substantially amplified when individual investors provide a large percentage of the capital.
Taken together, semi-liquid private credit and private equity funds are unusually vulnerable to run mechanisms. Not only are Illiquid assets financed with redeemable capital, but the underlying investments were raised at the tail-end of two aged investment cycles. Financial history suggests that such combinations rarely remain stable for very long. They may function smoothly for several years. But when confidence weakens, the structural mismatch becomes impossible to ignore.
That day arrived on February 18, when Blue Owl announced that it had permanently eliminated quarterly liquidity in its OBDC II private credit fund.