Bank of America’s chief technology and information officer said one of the most common AI mistakes is reaching for it first. His bank also plans to double its AI budget next year.
“One of the biggest mistakes we see us and others doing is rush to AI as a solution,” Hari Gopalkrishnan said at Fortune‘s AIQ Summit in New York, “when deterministic models do a plenty good job.”
Gopalkrishnan appeared with Sally Moore, S&P Global’s chief client officer and co-head of Kensho Data & Platforms. Fortune Editorial Director Andrew Nusca moderated.
Bank of America: simple tools first
Gopalkrishnan said the bank starts with what clients need and a “process inventory” of the steps behind their requests. It often decides against AI — “plenty of times,” he said. A mobile app or a real-time decision rule can be the better answer.
Every AI project also goes through a review that covers 16 “pillars” of risk, including privacy, bias, workforce impact and intellectual property. “We’re not going to implement a chatbot that only answers to certain accents,” he said.
He said the bank has used AI for more than a decade, starting with fraud models. Its Erica virtual assistant has handled 3.6 billion transactions, he said, and without it the bank would need 11,000 more people to answer the calls. A March bank press release counted Erica’s client interactions at more than 3.2 billion.
The caution comes with heavy spending. CEO Brian Moynihan said in September that about 140 AI uses cost $400 million and generate $800 million in benefit, and that the AI expense budget will double next year.
That spending is routed carefully, and Gopalkrishnan said the bank is model-agnostic. An orchestration layer (called Orchestra, naturally) sends simple classification tasks to approved open-weight models running on the bank’s own GPUs, and harder reasoning to proprietary models. He said this also helps control token costs. In wealth management, advisors can now prepare for client meetings in “seconds and minutes,” work that used to take days and weeks, he said.
On agents, the bank isn’t hurrying toward autonomy. “There is so much juice to be squeezed right now with assistive agents that are actually working with humans in the loop,” he said. The bank will go further as control infrastructure improves.
He also addressed security, and said AI models are getting better at finding software vulnerabilities, so patching and secure development matter whether or not a company uses AI. The stakes go beyond any one bank, he said: if a small bank somewhere has a problem, people lose faith in the financial system.
S&P: data as the currency
Moore said her 160-year-old company is repositioning itself —aggressively and carefully. S&P is the world’s largest credit rating agency, and one of the largest index providers, and much of its financial data feeds regulated workflows, she said. “Data is the currency within AI,” she said. Clients need accuracy, citations, and auditability and traceability back to the source.
She credited an early bet. S&P bought the AI company Kensho in 2018, and that has “given us an advantage,” she said, explaining that S&P has since put Kensho at the center of the business. On July 6, it split Market Intelligence into two units. The first, Kensho Data & Platforms, pairs “Kensho Data,” the client-facing data and AI delivery layer, with a Platforms group that houses Capital IQ, Ratings Direct, Visible Alpha and With Intelligence. The second unit is Enterprise Solutions. CEO Martina Cheung said the changes should support revenue growth and better margins.
About two years ago, S&P also created a chief client office, which Moore leads, to work more closely with clients. It has a labs group and what it calls forward-deployed experts, who work with clients on AI.
S&P serves 60,000 clients at different stages of AI adoption, she said. It works with frontier AI labs, puts its data into large language models and productivity tools, and now builds its own agents. Use runs from broad tasks, such as bankers preparing for meetings and pitch books, to specialized agents built for one job.
She gave one example. A tier-one bank with 8,000 bankers was combining S&P content sets in its own platform. S&P helped bring it to production “six times quicker,” she said, and accuracy rose from about 60% when the bank started to 98% afterward. (She didn’t name the bank, and the figures are S&P’s own.) S&P also built a “credit memo builder” agent that keeps humans in the loop and relies on confidence in the underlying data.
Like Gopalkrishnan, she talked about using the right tool for the job. S&P’s deterministic option for language models is an API, so it doesn’t run up heavy token costs, she said. More complex “adaptive data retrieval at scale” costs more. Clients also pay for data, technology and people efficiency from different budgets, so S&P talks with them about a range of outcomes.
Where they part ways
Asked whether he ever chooses against AI, Gopalkrishnan said the simplest answer is often the best one. “AI is not always the right answer,” he said.
Moore agreed, and then took the point further. “I think Hari said it really well. It’s not around the right tool. It’s a little bit about reinvention,” she said. “What am I trying to solve for here? And where can this technology take me?”
Inside S&P, that has meant a central transformation office that brings together technologists and, more recently, data operations.
In the closing lightning round, Moore pointed to “embedded intelligence,” which she said “creates an opportunity to go beyond the clients that you serve today.”
Gopalkrishnan had the last word: “I think anticipating your client needs and serving them where they are will differentiate you in otherwise commoditized space.”
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
The originators who hold up best through a stretch like this one tend to be the ones who never fully let go of a client once a loan funds.
New National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) president Michael Farrell (pictured top left), who took over the role today from former president Kimber White (pictured top right), says the originators still operating the old way are going to struggle, regardless of what rates do next.
“In today’s market, you’ve got to be the originator, and you also have to be the debt manager,” Farrell told Mortgage Professional America. “It’s not just rubber-stamp rate, and that’s a transactional base. It’s looking beyond that transaction because a customer is a transaction. A client’s for life.”
Battling affordability challenges
With so many people talking about the challenges of affordability, both in a mortgage and in everyday life, Farrell said combating those challenges involves building a long-term relationship with a homebuyer.
“Home affordability is not just in the rate. It’s in every other aspect that affects it. But a home is required and necessary for family and wealth creation,” he said. “After that closing, it’s a matter of managing that debt and having an ongoing relationship with that client.”
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[2026.10 Update] Chase and IHG launched the new IHG One Rewards Premier Select Credit Card today. This is a premium IHG co-branded card positioned above the regular IHG Premier. The annual fee is $350. The launch offer is currently 200k IHG points after spending $5,000, plus another 10k points for adding an authorized user. This launch offer ends on November 18, 2026.
Application Link
Benefits
200k+10k welcome offer: Earn 200,000 IHG points after spending $5,000 in the first 3 months. You can earn another 10k points by adding an authorized user within the first 3 months.
IHG Points are worth about 0.5 cents/point (Hotel Points Valuation). Therefore, the 200k welcome offer is worth about $1,000.
Starting in the second year, after paying the annual fee, you receive one 60k Free Night (FN) each year. You can top it up with points to redeem for hotels costing more than 60k points. You can also earn another 60k FN after spending $40k in a calendar year, and this certificate can also be topped up with points.
Earn 12x IHG Points at IHG hotels, 6x on dining and travel, including rideshare purchases, and 3x on all other purchases.
$300 in annual IHG dining vouchers: Receive one $75 voucher each quarter. It can be used toward eligible food and beverage charges billed to your room during an IHG hotel stay. Each voucher can only be used once and expires at the end of the quarter. Any unused amount is forfeited.
$200 annual airline credit: Purchase an airline ticket of at least $250 directly from an airline and receive a $200 statement credit. Note that this benefit is currently only guaranteed through December 31, 2027.
Cardholders automatically receive IHG Platinum Elite status. Spend $25k in a calendar year to receive Diamond Elite status, valid through the end of the following calendar year.
Cardholders receive 20 Elite Night Credits (ENC) each year, immediately reaching the 20-night threshold for the first IHG Milestone Reward. After that, earn another 2 ENC for every $5k in spending. When annual spending reaches $15k, you also receive an additional 5 ENC.
Spend $15k in a calendar year and, in addition to the extra 5 ENC mentioned above, receive 20k bonus IHG points.
When redeeming IHG points for four consecutive nights, the fourth night is free.
Receive a 30% discount when purchasing IHG points.
Cardholders receive $50 in United TravelBank Cash per calendar year. The $50 is split into two $25 deposits: $25 on January 1 and another $25 on July 1. The first $25 expires on July 15 of the same year, while the second $25 expires on January 15 of the following year. Registration is required. Because the amount is small and the expiration periods are short, this benefit is not particularly useful. For tips on using it, see Chase IHG Premier $25 United TravelBank Cash Tips.
Up to $120 in statement credits every four years for Global Entry, TSA PreCheck, or NEXUS application fees.
There are also several limited-time Chase benefits, including one year of complimentary DashPass, up to $10 per month in DoorDash non-restaurant discounts, and $10 per month in Instacart credits. Most of these benefits are also currently only guaranteed through the end of 2027.
No foreign transaction fee.
Disadvantages
$350 annual fee, NOT waived first year.
Although the $300 annual IHG dining benefit has a substantial face value, it is split into $75 quarterly vouchers, must be used during an IHG hotel stay and charged to the room, and each voucher can only be used once. Therefore, unless you stay at IHG hotels regularly, it may be difficult to use the full value.
Free night is only valid for one year.
Recommended Application Time
[5/24 Rule] If you have 5 or more new accounts opened in the past 24 months, Chase will not approve your application, no matter how high your credit score is. The number of new accounts includes all credit card accounts, not only Chase accounts. See this post for details about how to possibly bypass this rule.
This product is available to you if you do not have this card and have not received a new Cardmember bonus within the last 24 months. Note that what matters here is the time you got the sign-up bonus, not the time you open the account or close the account. This business credit card does not affect the signup bonus eligibility of personal IHG credit cards.
Don’t apply for more than 2 Chase credit cards within 30 days, or it’s highly likely that you will get rejected.
We recommend you to apply for this card after you have a credit history for more than a year.
Summary
This is IHG’s new premium personal credit card. Its $350 annual fee is $200 higher than the regular IHG Premier’s $150 annual fee. In exchange, the main benefits are a higher-value 60k FN, Platinum Elite status, 20 ENC per year, $300 in IHG dining vouchers, and a $200 airline credit.
The easiest benefit to use is clearly the $200 airline credit: simply purchase an airline ticket costing at least $250 and you can receive the full credit in one transaction. If you also stay at IHG hotels frequently enough to use the quarterly $75 dining vouchers, those two benefits alone provide $500 in annual face value, before even considering the 60k FN, making the $350 annual fee relatively easy to offset.
However, there are also obvious drawbacks. The $200 airline credit is currently only guaranteed through the end of 2027, while the $300 dining benefit is split into $75 quarterly vouchers and will not be easy for everyone to use in full. Therefore, over the long term, this card is most suitable for people who stay at IHG hotels several times per year and place meaningful value on the 20 ENC and IHG Milestone Rewards.
This card is particularly strong for earning elite qualifying nights. Simply holding the card immediately gets you to IHG’s first Milestone Reward threshold, where you can select a suite upgrade reward. If you already stay at IHG hotels during the year and also earn additional ENC through card spending, reaching 40 nights to unlock the lounge membership reward becomes significantly easier.
Compared with the regular $150 IHG Premier, the main advantages of the Premier Select are the 60k FN, Platinum status, 20 ENC, the larger $300 dining benefit, and the $200 airline credit. If you can consistently use these benefits, the extra $200 annual fee is reasonable. If you mainly want an annual IHG Free Night certificate and fourth-night-free award stays, the regular Premier is obviously much simpler.
Call 800-453-9719 to check Chase business cards application status. This is an automated telephone line, and the information has the following meanings: Receive decision in 2 weeks means your application is probably approved; Receive decision in 7-10 days means your application is probably rejected; Receive decision in 30 days simply means your application requires further review and there’s nothing to tell you for now.
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Every AI tool you’ve used stops working the moment you stop typing.
You ask. It answers. Then it waits for you to come back.
Dots don’t wait. OpenAI introduced them on September 29, 2026, at its DevDay event, and they keep working in the background after your conversation ends.
A dot remembers what you asked for last week. It keeps the work moving while you’re off the clock. And it checks in when there’s a decision that actually needs you.
And before you think that it’s just another feature or setting that doesn’t truly scratch an itch, this might actually change things. It’s a different way of working with AI.
Here’s what a dot actually is, who can get one, and what this kind of tool means in practice.
Disclaimer: While these are general suggestions, it’s important to conduct thorough research and due diligence when selecting AI tools. We do not endorse or promote any specific AI tools mentioned here. This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended to provide legal, financial, or clinical advice. Always comply with HIPAA and institutional policies. For any decisions that impact patient care or finances, consult a qualified professional.
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Know What a Dot Actually Is
Under the hood, a dot runs on OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra model. It has its own cloud computer with its own browser, separate from whatever device you’re using to talk to it.
That separation is the whole point. Your laptop can be closed, and the dot’s cloud work keeps going.
OpenAI doesn’t really frame a dot as a tool you open and close. It’s more like an extension of you. It learns your preferences and standards over time, so you can hand it more without directing every step.
Here’s what that looks like in practice:
You create a dot once, give it a name and a look, and keep working with the same one, rather than starting fresh with every task.
You can reach it through ChatGPT, Slack, Microsoft Teams, or a voice call. It’s the same dot in every channel, and it can draw on relevant context across them.
It connects to apps you already use, over 4,000 of them through OpenAI’s plugin ecosystem, so it can pull from your email or documents directly instead of you pasting everything in.
It does background research on its own, even without a specific ask. OpenAI calls this proactive research, and the tools it uses are read-only: they can’t send messages, edit app content, or control a browser or computer. Anything the dot does as a follow-up still has to clear its permissions.
Before an action affects your accounts or shares information, an automatic review decides whether the dot can go ahead, needs your approval, or has to hand that step to you. Some sensitive tasks, such as changing a password, are always left to you.
With your permission, it can also connect to your own computer to work with local files or installed software. Only one personal computer can be connected at a time, and it has to be online with the ChatGPT app open.
So here’s the simplest way to think about it. A regular AI chat answers your question and waits for the next one.
A dot takes on a responsibility and keeps it. It comes back with results, and with the decisions that need you.
This is Different from the “Usual” ChatGPT
It’s tempting to read this as a faster version of what ChatGPT already does.
That’s probably not the right read. What OpenAI seems to be testing is something different: whether you’re ready to hand ongoing responsibility to an AI system, not just individual tasks one at a time.
TechCrunch’s coverage of the launch says it like this. Unlike ChatGPT or Codex, dots aren’t bound to a particular device or interface. They’re designed to keep working toward goals you set, in the background, with little oversight.
While a lot of this was already possible with other similar agentic tools, what’s new is bundling it into a package centered on independent action.
Here’s the thing, though. The bigger change might be the persistent identity. You get one dot you build a working relationship with, instead of a tool that resets every time you open a new chat.
OpenAI’s own launch examples give you a feel for this:
A developer’s dot watches customer feedback and prepares tested fixes for review.
A scientist’s dot reruns analyses as new data arrives and flags what needs a second look.
A sales lead’s dot keeps a proposal and test plan current as requirements and test results change.
Now think about your own week. If you’re managing more moving pieces than you can hold in your head, maybe a packed clinical schedule plus a growing side business or a few other ventures, this is a tool built to hold onto a responsibility rather than wait for you to ask again.
Picture What a Dot Could Do for You
If you’re running a demanding clinical career alongside other ventures, the appeal is pretty straightforward.
Say you assign a dot to track an investment’s quarterly reports. Or chase down a stalled side project. Or keep your content calendar organized.
You don’t have to re-brief it every week. It keeps track, follows up, and brings you results and the decisions that need you.
That convenience comes with the same considerations that apply to any AI system you give standing access to real accounts and real data. A few of them are specific to this launch.
Before You Try Dots
1. Review your permissions deliberately, not automatically
You choose which apps your dot can use. But it can also draw on plugins already connected to your ChatGPT account, with whatever permissions those connections already have.
So before you create a dot, audit what’s connected.
Keep anything containing protected health information out of it unless your organization’s compliance team has confirmed an approved, HIPAA-compliant setup. A personal ChatGPT plan is not a clinical system.
If you’re on a personal plan, check your data controls too. OpenAI says you can choose whether your dot’s conversations and work are used to improve its models.
2. Understand what “proactive research” actually means
The research itself is read-only. While it’s working in the background, your dot can’t send messages, edit app content, or control a browser or computer.
That’s a real safeguard. But it only covers the research. What your dot does next depends on the permissions and rules you’ve set.
3. Calibrate autonomy instead of maxing it out
OpenAI is direct about this: dots can make mistakes, and consequential work needs your review.
The built-in approval checks help. Custom Rules also let you require approval for specific actions or block them outright.
One more thing. Pausing a dot doesn’t reverse anything it’s already done. So set your boundaries before the work starts, not after.
4. Watch how agentic systems behave when things go wrong
Days before dots launched, OpenAI disclosed that AI agents in its research environment had posted 53 user-provided images to image-hosting sites without the company’s knowledge. The links weren’t publicly listed, but they could still be found.
The disclosure was part of OpenAI’s ongoing review of incidents where its agents reached the open internet and misbehaved.
To be clear, that incident involved an internal research system, not dots. But it’s a useful reminder. Agentic AI is still new territory, and even the people who built it are actively learning how to contain it.
None of this is a reason to skip dots, or agentic AI tools in general.
It’s a reason to onboard one the way you’d onboard any new hire with real access. Clear boundaries from day one. Not broad trust by default.
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Stay Curious But Be Careful What You Connect
OpenAI is making a clear bet here. The next leap in AI usefulness isn’t faster answers. It’s an AI that holds onto responsibility the way a competent assistant would.
If you’re already stretched across a clinical career and a few other things on the side, that’s a shift worth watching closely, even before it shows up in your account.
Whether it’s worth adopting right now comes down to two things. Where your plan and region land. And how comfortable you are giving real access to a system designed to take on more with less step-by-step direction.
For now, the sensible move is the same one that applies to every AI tool: stay curious, try it, and be careful about what you connect to it.
So I’m curious. If you had a dot running in the background tomorrow, what’s the first responsibility you’d hand it? And what would you never let it touch? We’d love to hear it so share it in the comments!
Download The Physician’s Starter Guide to AI – a free, easy-to-digest resource that walks you through smart ways to integrate tools like ChatGPT into your professional and personal life. Whether you’re AI-curious or already experimenting, this guide will save you time, stress, and maybe even a little sanity.
Want more tips to sharpen your AI skills? Subscribe to our newsletter for exclusive insights and practical advice. You’ll also get access to our free AI resource page, packed with AI tools and tutorials to help you have more in life outside of medicine. Let’s make life easier, one prompt at a time. Make it happen!
Disclaimer: This article is for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute medical, legal, compliance, or professional advice. The information provided here is based on available public data and may not be entirely accurate or up-to-date. It’s recommended to contact the respective companies/individuals for detailed information on features, pricing, and availability.All screenshots, if any, are used under the principles of fair use for editorial, educational, or commentary purposes. All trademarks and copyrights belong to their respective owners.
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President Vladimir Putin on Thursday reiterated Moscow’s long-held position that Russia is not planning to attack European countries but will respond to aggression with “all weapons” in its arsenal.
In remarks at a foreign policy forum, Putin accused the West and Europe of escalating tensions by talking about preparing for a war with Moscow in the coming years, conducting military drills in the Baltic Sea, and seizing Russian vessels.
His remarks followed Moscow’s warning to NATO that it would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to defend Kaliningrad should any members of the military alliance try to cut off the Baltic exclave from the rest of Russia.
Several Russian embassies in Europe this week issued statements that said Moscow has “information that NATO is preparing (an) air and naval blockade of Kaliningrad and (the) Kaliningrad region.”
They accused European leaders of “playing a dangerous game” by saying Russia might attack another country or ramp up a campaign of destabilizing attacks with drones and sabotage. Moscow has called the allegations absurd.
“There should be no mistake — Russia would be ready to use all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries try to isolate (the) Kaliningrad region from the rest of the country,” the Russian Embassy in Ireland said in its statement on Tuesday.
Asked at the Valdai Club forum Thursday whether Russia was on the cusp of a war with NATO or whether both were trying to intimidate each other, Putin said: “It’s not intimidation, it’s a response to an attempt to intimidate us.”
Putin said that “everything is written correctly” in the earlier warning to NATO.
“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation — in this case we mean Kaliningrad, or maybe some other territories — of course, inevitably and immediately the question of Russian Federation using all weapons at the disposal of our country will appear on the agenda,” he said.
Putin didn’t specify whether Moscow would use nuclear weapons but said it has arms that “no one else has” and would determine which to use in case of an attack.
NATO pushed back against Russian nuclear rhetoric
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart confirmed Wednesday that Russia had sent a written message to the U.S.-led military alliance. “We strongly denounce the threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric,” she said in a statement.
Hart insisted NATO is not targeting Kaliningrad and had sent a reply noting that “NATO is a defensive alliance and none of our activities or exercises pose a risk to any part of Russia.”
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Wednesday the bloc’s response to the message was “short and concise.”
“Basically what we said is, ‘Hey, listen, we are defensive alliance, and stop the nuclear threat. This is absolutely not called for and not helpful,’” Rutte told Euronews.
NATO’s response also urged Russia to stop its “unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine,” now in its fifth year.
The Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad sits between NATO members Poland and Lithuania. It is home to Russia’s main Baltic navy base and other military assets, and nuclear-capable Iskander missiles are deployed there.
Western military officers have said that key military installations in Kaliningrad would be a likely first target should Russia ever attack any NATO ally.
NATO allies have conducted military exercises in the Baltic Sea region in recent months. More are planned in October. It launched Operation Baltic Sentry there last year to protect communication cables and pipelines.
On Aug. 18, NATO held an exercise over northern Poland and the Baltic region involving several aircraft, including an EA-37B Compass Call — a sophisticated American plane that can jam communications and radar, the U.S. Air Forces in Europe said.
Defense analysts believe the unannounced, large-scale exercise would not have been welcomed by the Kremlin.
Rutte urges continued focus on supporting Ukraine
European leaders and intelligence services have warned that Russia could be ready to strike at another country within a few years, especially if it wins its war on Ukraine.
Rutte told Euronews that Russia is trying “to divide us and lose the focus” on defending Ukraine.
“We will not,” he said, adding that the best way to respond is to provide Kyiv with more support.
“That’s the message. Calm, carry on, keep the support for Ukraine going. That’s how we deal with it,” Rutte said.
——
Associated Press reporter Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed.
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The Department of Education’s official FY 2023 cohort default rate is 0.4%, up from 0.0% for FY 2022. Just 14,296 of the 3.37 million borrowers in the cohort defaulted during the three-year measurement window.
The rate is low because the pandemic payment pause, the on-ramp, and the SAVE forbearance covered nearly all of the window.
The number that matters is coming next year. Draft FY 2024 rates arrive in early 2027 and will be the first calculated with no pandemic protections in place, and roughly 1,800 colleges already have nonpayment rates of 25% or higher.
The Department of Education released its official FY 2023 student loan cohort default rate on September 30, 2026, and the headline figure is 0.4%. Among 3,372,244 borrowers who entered repayment between October 1, 2022, and September 30, 2023, only 14,296 defaulted by September 30, 2025, according to the Federal Student Aid briefing. That is the fourth straight year the national rate has landed at or near zero, but it bears no resemblance to the 9.3 million borrowers currently in default on federal loans.
The gap between those two numbers is confusing a lot of people, including financial aid offices. The explanation is not that borrowers suddenly started paying. It is that the cohort default rate is a narrow, backward-looking measure, and the pandemic-era protections happened to cover nearly every day of the window it measures.
Basically, if you see this number, disregard it. It’s not helpful… yet. Here’s what to know.
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How The Cohort Default Rate Actually Works
A cohort default rate tracks one group of borrowers, those who entered repayment during a single federal fiscal year, and asks what share of them defaulted by the end of the second fiscal year after that. For the FY 2023 cohort, the window opened October 1, 2022, and closed September 30, 2025. Default, for this purpose, means a loan has gone at least 270 days without a payment.
The rate is calculated for every school that participates in federal aid, and the national figure is simply the sum of those schools. The FY 2023 calculation covered 5,417 institutions.
Congress built the measure as an accountability tool: under the Higher Education Act, a school with a CDR of 30% or higher for three consecutive years, or above 40% in a single year, loses access to federal student loans, and for-profit colleges have historically been the schools closest to those lines.
The lag is by design. Because the window runs three fiscal years and the Department needs most of another year to finalize the data, an official CDR describes borrowers who left school roughly four years before the number is published. The FY 2023 rate released this week was calculated on August 1, 2026, about borrowers who started repayment in late 2022 and early 2023.
Official National Student Loan Cohort Default Rate, FY 2012–FY 2023
Share of borrowers entering repayment each fiscal year who defaulted within the three-year measurement window
Line chart of the national cohort default rate falling from 11.8% in FY 2012 to 0.4% in FY 2023
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Federal Student Aid, FY 2023 Official National Student Loan Cohort Default Rate Briefing (Sept. 30, 2026). The FY 2019 through FY 2023 measurement windows were covered in whole or part by the pandemic payment pause (March 2020–Sept. 2023), the 12-month on-ramp, and the SAVE litigation forbearance. Chart: The College Investor.View as table
The Department’s own briefing says the FY 2023 rate “should be interpreted with caution.” The reason is a stack of three overlapping protections. The pandemic payment pause began March 13, 2020, and ran through September 2023, with no Federal student loans entering default during that stretch.
When payments resumed in October 2023, the Department added a 12-month on-ramp through September 30, 2024, during which missed payments were not reported to credit bureaus and borrowers could not be placed in default. Then the courts blocked the SAVE plan, and the roughly 7 million borrowers enrolled in it were placed in a litigation forbearance that stretched from July 2024 into the fall of 2025.
Lay those dates over the FY 2023 window and the math becomes obvious. The National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators calculates that FY 2023 borrowers had exactly 365 days, October 2024 through September 2025, in which it was even possible to become delinquent long enough to hit the 270-day threshold, and SAVE borrowers were shielded for most of that year. The FY 2022 cohort had zero such days, which is why its rate was 0.0%. For comparison, the last fully pre-pandemic cohort, FY 2018, defaulted at 7.3%, and FY 2016 came in at 10.1%.
The distortion actually starts one year earlier than most people assume. The FY 2019 cohort entered repayment between October 2018 and September 2019, and its monitoring window ran through September 30, 2021. The pause arrived on March 13, 2020, roughly halfway through, and it did two things at once: payments stopped being required, and the delinquency clock froze for anyone already behind. A borrower who was 200 days late in March 2020 stayed at 200 days for the next three and a half years instead of crossing the 270-day line.
That left FY 2019 borrowers with somewhere between five and 17 months of real exposure, depending on when they entered repayment, instead of the usual three years. The result was a 2.3% rate, down from 7.3% the year before. The national rate had been declining slowly since FY 2012, when it peaked at 11.8%, but a five-point drop in a single cohort is not a trend. It is a window that closed early, and every cohort since has had the same problem or worse.
What The Numbers Show Underneath The 0.4%
Even inside a near-zero year, the data is showing a few signals. Borrowers at for-profit schools defaulted at 0.8%, double the 0.3% rate at public and private nonprofit institutions, with 4,821 of 576,634 proprietary-school borrowers in default. Foreign schools posted the lowest rate at 0.2%.
The cohort itself also shrank. The number of borrowers entering repayment fell 4.4% from the FY 2022 cohort, a drop of 156,845 people, and the decline at for-profit schools was 13.4%. The number of participating schools fell by 88, to 5,417, with for-profits accounting for 83 of the lost institutions.
Those shifts track with enrollment and lending trends The College Investor has covered, where fewer students are borrowing even as balances for those who do keep rising.
The Number Schools Should Be Watching Instead
The Department is telling colleges to focus on a different metric: the nonpayment rate. That figure measures the share of a school’s Direct Loan borrowers who entered repayment between January 2020 and May 2025 and are more than 90 days delinquent. The Department refreshed that data on September 22, 2026, using August 2026 figures, and the results show a much bigger issue.
Approximately 1,800 institutions have nonpayment rates at or above 25%, according to the Department’s announcement. That is consistent with the broader delinquency picture: as of June 30, 2026, Federal Student Aid data showed 9.3 million borrowers in default holding $234 billion, with another 1.5 million in late-stage delinquency and roughly 20% of borrowers in active repayment more than 30 days behind.
The nonpayment rate carries no sanctions. The CDR does, and the Department’s announcement spells out what it expects: draft FY 2024 rates will be issued in early 2027, and the official FY 2024 rates next fall will be “the first such release following the full expiration of pandemic-era flexibilities.”
The Department has asked schools above 25% to update their default prevention plans, attend an October 13 webinar, and complete a new self-paced training track on CDRs. The FY 2024 cohort entered repayment between October 2023 and September 2024, and its window closes September 30, 2026, meaning the outcome is already largely baked in.
What This Means For Borrowers And Families
For an individual borrower, the CDR has no direct effect on your loan. It does not change your interest rate, your repayment plan options, or whether your loan is in good standing. Its effect is on the school, and only when it crosses the sanction thresholds.
The indirect effects are the ones worth paying attention to. A school that loses federal loan eligibility loses the revenue most of its students use to pay tuition, and sudden college closures strand students mid-degree.
For borrowers who are behind, it’s a different story. Collections resumed in May 2025, wage garnishment is restarting, and the New York Fed has documented credit score drops averaging 91 points for borrowers who went from current to default.
A borrower already in default can get out through rehabilitation or consolidation, and the Department now runs an online portal for both.
The FY 2023 rate is being measured on misleading data. The FY 2024 and FY 2025 rates will be the first real test of how the post-pandemic repayment system, including the new RAP plan and the end of SAVE, is working.
Editor: Colin Graves
The post The Official Student Loan Cohort Default Rate Is 0.4%. Here’s Why That Number Means Almost Nothing. appeared first on The College Investor.
Are you looking to capitalize on the next frontier of human expansion? Comparing Intuitive Machines(LUNR -1.33%) and Rocket Lab USA(RKLB +1.12%) offers a glimpse into two distinct paths within the commercial space race.
LUNR & RKLB: Performance Comparison
Key Financial Metrics
LUNR – Intuitive Machines
$14.05
–1.33% (–$0.19)
RKLB – Rocket Lab
$70.46
+1.12% (+$0.78)
Market Cap
$2.5B
52wk Range
$7.78 – $46.75
Gross Margin
10.19%
P/E Ratio
-15.10
EPS (TTM)
-$0.94
Market Cap
$42B
52wk Range
$37.57 – $151.00
Gross Margin
34.11%
P/E Ratio
-249.21
EPS (TTM)
-$0.28
LUNR – Intuitive Machines
$14.05
–1.33% (–$0.19)
Market Cap
$2.5B
52wk Range
$7.78 – $46.75
Gross Margin
10.19%
P/E Ratio
-15.10
EPS (TTM)
-$0.94
RKLB – Rocket Lab
$70.46
+1.12% (+$0.78)
Market Cap
$42B
52wk Range
$37.57 – $151.00
Gross Margin
34.11%
P/E Ratio
-249.21
EPS (TTM)
-$0.28
Intuitive Machines focuses on cislunar (a term for the space between Earth and the Moon) infrastructure and moon landings, while Rocket Lab provides reliable launch services and spacecraft manufacturing. Both companies represent high-risk, high-reward opportunities in a rapidly evolving market for orbital and lunar services. They are being compared because they dominate the emerging commercial space economy.
The case for Intuitive Machines
Intuitive Machines provides spacecraft, network connections, and infrastructure-as-a-service for the defense industry and commercial sectors. It serves customers across the space domain, including civil and national security missions. The company maintains a significant customer concentration, with one major customer accounting for nearly 78% of revenues, which adds concentration risk to the business.
In its latest annual report filed for FY 2025, revenue reached roughly $210.1 million. This represented a year-over-year decrease of about 7.9% compared to the previous fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $83.3 million for the year, as it continues to invest heavily in its lunar capabilities.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was nearly negative 0.5x. This negative value means that total liabilities exceed shareholder equity. The current ratio, which measures a company’s ability to cover short-term obligations with current assets, is roughly 5.0x. Free cash flow, calculated as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was negative $56.0 million for FY 2025.
The case for Rocket Lab USA
Rocket Lab provides end-to-end space solutions, including rocket manufacturing and mission services. It operates frequently from launch sites in New Zealand and Virginia. The company serves a diverse group of more than 20 global organizations across the defense and commercial sectors, positioning itself as a reliable partner for orbital access.
In its latest annual report for FY 2025, revenue reached about $601.8 million. This was a substantial increase of approximately 38% over the previous fiscal year. Despite the top-line growth, the company reported a net loss of around $198.2 million as it scales its operations and develops new launch vehicles.
As of the December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 0.1x. This ratio measures total debt against shareholder equity to assess financial leverage. The current ratio stands at roughly 4.1x, indicating strong short-term liquidity. Free cash flow was negative $321.8 million for FY 2025, reflecting significant investments in expansion.
Risk profile comparison
Intuitive Machines faces significant risks related to revenue concentration. The company relies heavily on a single customer for the vast majority of its income, creating exposure to changes in that customer’s ordering patterns. It also must navigate operational challenges, such as the integration of Lanteris and the inherent risks of lunar missions, where failures could lead to contractual penalties.
Rocket Lab is currently managing a massive $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications(IRDM -0.06%). This deal involves substantial financing and dilution risks for existing shareholders. The company also faces operational risks with its Electron vehicle and relies on critical components from suppliers like Canon(CAJFF +2.37%) and Synspective, where interruptions could lead to production delays.
Valuation comparison
Intuitive Machines currently trades at a significantly lower sales multiple than its peer, although Rocket Lab shows much faster top-line growth and a more stable balance sheet.
Metric
Intuitive Machines
Rocket Lab
Forward P/E
129.8x
252.5x
P/S ratio
4.6x
53.2x
Valuation metrics include sourcing from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
Intuitive Machines started fiscal 2026 with its strongest quarter in history, delivering record revenue of $187 million. Management says they have an order backlog of $1.1 billion, including $400 million in early 2026 bookings. NASA is moving toward a steady access to space flights and deliveries, too, which bodes well for the company’s longer-term sales. Revenue for fiscal 2026 is expected to more than quadruple to $952 million, with a narrower net loss of $66 million. Analysts expect the business to turn a profit for the first time in 2028.
Rocket Lab, meanwhile, made a huge splash in the market with its proposed $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications this year. The combination promises to make Rocket Lab a space powerhouse, combining Rocket Lab’s launch technology and the communications spectrum offered by Iridium. In short, Rocket Lab could very well be a serious competitor to Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX -1.85%). Don’t overlook Rocket Lab’s expertise in sending small payloads into orbit, and it is closing in on the same reusable rocket technology that SpaceX has used to lower its customer prices.
Stand-alone Rocket Lab is seen boosting its revenue by about 33% this year and narrowing its net loss to about $145 milion. The Iridium acquisition is a big meal to swallow, but the combined business should generate $1.8 billion in revenue in 2026 and come close to breaking even, profit-wise.
These are two exciting space-age stocks. Intuitive Machines, with its much more reasonable P/S ratio, gets the nod, under the adage of buying good companies at good prices for the long-term, rather than paying extremely high premiums for future growth with Rocket Lab
Chase has shared its Q4 2026 Pay Yourself Back categories for both Chase-branded and co-branded cards.
Pay Yourself Back lets cardholders redeem points or miles for statement credits against eligible purchases made within the previous 90 days. For Q4, the best values are still concentrated on Sapphire Reserve and JPMorgan Reserve, while several co-branded cards continue to offer annual fee redemptions and select travel-related categories.
For Sapphire Reserve and JPMorgan Reserve, cardholders can get up to 1.50 cents per point for qualifying charities, 1.25 cents per point toward the annual fee, 1.20 cents per point at department stores, and 1.15 cents per point at grocery stores and wholesale clubs, excluding Target and Walmart, through December 31, 2026.
Chase Branded Cards
Sapphire Preferred
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.25 cents per point for qualifying charities through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.10 cents per point for their annual fee through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Sapphire Reserve
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.50 cents per point for qualifying charities through December 31, 2026 (subject to change)
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.25 cents per point for their annual fee through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.20 cents per point for their purchases with department stores through December 31, 2026.
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.15 cents per point for purchases with wholesale clubs and groceries (excluding Target and Walmart) through December 31, 2026.
JPMorgan Reserve
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.50 cents per point for qualifying charities through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.25 cents per point for their annual fee through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.20 cents per point for their purchases with department stores through December 31, 2026.
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.15 cents per point for purchases with wholesale clubs and groceries (excluding Target and Walmart) through December 31, 2026.
Freedom
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.25 cents per point for qualifying charities through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Ink (includes Ink Plus, Ink Cash, Ink Business Cash, Ink Business Unlimited, Ink Business Premier, Ink Business Preferred)
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.25 cents per point for qualifying charities through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business
Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem points at 1.25 cents per point for qualifying charities through December 31, 2026 (subject to change).
Eligible charities include Alzheimer’s Association, American Heart Association, American Red Cross, Equal Justice Initiative, Feeding America, GLSEN, Habitat for Humanity, International Medical Corps, International Rescue Committee, Leadership Conference Education Fund, Make-A-Wish America, NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund, National Urban League, Out and Equal Workplace Advocates, SAGE, Thurgood Marshall College Fund, United Negro College Fund, UNICEF USA, United Way and World Central Kitchen.
Co-Brand Cards
Marriott Bonvoy Bold Card
Marriott Bonvoy Bold cardmembers can redeem points for a statement credit to cover qualifying travel purchases made directly with airlines or at hotels participating in Marriott Bonvoy®, up to $750 total in redemptions per year.
United Family of Cards from Chase: Cardmembers who utilize Pay Yourself Back can redeem miles for 1.35 cents to 1.50 cents per mile (based upon United product) for annual fee statement credits. Cardmembers can also utilize Pay Yourself Back to redeem miles for 1 cent per mile (for all United Card products) for purchases of $50 or more in the United airfare purchase category. Purchases include United airfare tickets purchased on United.com or the United mobile app using a United MileagePlus Credit Card. Flights purchased through any other source, such as United General Reservations, United Vacations, travel agencies or other travel websites, are not eligible.
Southwest Rapid Rewards® Consumer Credit Cards
Southwest Rapid Rewards Consumer Credit Cardmembers can use Rapid Rewards® points to cover their annual fee at any time during the calendar year. Redemption requests must be made within 90 days of the annual fee transaction date found on your statement.
Southwest Rapid Rewards® Business Credit Cards
Southwest Rapid Rewards Business Credit Cardmembers can use Rapid Rewards® points to cover their annual fee at any time during the calendar year. Redemption requests must be made within 90 days of the annual fee transaction date found on your statement.
Disney® Inspire Visa® Card
Redeem Rewards Dollars for a statement credit toward purchases made at most Disney locations in the U.S. and online at Disney sites including DisneyStore.com, DisneyPlus.com, Hulu.com, and Plus.ESPN.com. Cardmembers can also redeem Rewards Dollars toward airline purchases including tickets on any airline to any destination with no block-out dates.
When using Pay Yourself Back®:
Redeem on Chase.com within 90 days of purchase
Do not load your Disney Rewards Dollars to a Disney Rewards Redemption Card
Disney Rewards Dollars will be deducted directly from your account
Disney® Premier Visa® Card
Redeem Rewards Dollars for a statement credit toward purchases made at most Disney locations in the U.S. and online at Disney sites including DisneyStore.com, DisneyPlus.com, Hulu.com, and Plus.ESPN.com. Cardmembers can also redeem Rewards Dollars toward airline purchases including tickets on any airline to any destination with no block-out dates.
When using Pay Yourself Back®:
Redeem on Chase.com within 90 days of purchase
Do not load your Disney Rewards Dollars to a Disney Rewards Redemption Card
Disney Rewards Dollars will be deducted directly from your account
Disney® Visa® Card
Redeem Rewards Dollars for a statement credit toward purchases made at most Disney locations in the U.S. and online at Disney sites including DisneyStore.com, DisneyPlus.com, Hulu.com, and Plus.ESPN.com.
When using Pay Yourself Back®:
Redeem on Chase.com within 90 days of purchase
Do not load your Disney Rewards Dollars to a Disney Rewards Redemption Card
Disney Rewards Dollars will be deducted directly from your account
The Chase Air Canada Aeroplan® Card: Aeroplan® points may be redeemed for a statement credit using Pay Yourself Back for purchases made at select merchants within the 90 days before the redemption request date. Redemptions using Pay Yourself Back against the following purchases made with your credit card will qualify: travel purchases and the prior payment of your annual fee. Each point you redeem through Pay Yourself Back for a statement credit towards qualifying travel purchases (up to 200,000 points or $2,500 annually) is worth $.0125 (one and a quarter cents), which means that 100 points equals $1.25 in redemption value. For a limited time, each point you redeem toward the prior payment of your annual fee is worth $.02 (2 cents), which means that 100 points equals $2 in redemption value.
Pay Yourself Back may also run promotional categories from time to time. Each point you redeem through Pay Yourself Back for a statement credit towards qualifying purchases in promotional categories will also be worth $.008, which means that 100 points equals $.80 in redemption value.
