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Mortgage Rates Waiting on the Jobs Report for Their Next Move


Well, we got a tame PCE report this morning, which would normally be good news for mortgage rates.

But instead of seeing bond yields drop and relief come, rates are under pressure once again.

Part of the reason might be that GDP (and consumer spending) also came in stronger-than-expected today.

The other might be that bond traders are awaiting another key jobs report due out Friday.

There’s also the simplest explanation: that the trend is just not our friend right now.

PCE Inflation Report Comes In Cooler Than Expected

First things first. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE report, came in cooler-than-expected today.

That should be good news for mortgage rates. Any inflation reading that is below forecast should in theory mean less pressure on bond yields (interest rates).

In normal times, it might lead to lower bond yields on the day, which would translate to lower 30-year fixed mortgage rates as well.

Not the case today, perhaps because we also got stronger-than-expected GDP, driven by robust consumer spending.

There’s also the massive AI build-out taking place, which is also driving GDP higher.

But when you ignore AI infrastructure and consider that household budgets are beginning to crack due to higher prices, including gas prices, you start to wonder.

After all, consumer confidence just hit its lowest point since 2014. So just how strong is the economy today?

As a rule of thumb, a weaker economy leads to lower mortgage rates and vice versa.

So if and when this presents itself, mortgage rates might finally see some relief.

Is It Labor Over Inflation Again?

The story lately has been all about inflation, driven mostly by the war with Iran, which has led to surging energy prices.

Aside from having to pay more at the pump, diesel prices will make their way into everything else we buy (or need transported).

That puts additional pressure on rising prices and makes the Fed more likely to hike.

However, rate hike expectations plummeted yesterday after New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no urgency” for more hikes.

The sure-thing October hike that had odds of 70% on CME a week ago is now down to 39%. Yes, it can change again, but it’s a lot less likely at the moment.

At the same time, the JOLTs report revealed fewer job openings, meaning employers aren’t looking to hire as many people.

This can relieve upward pressure on wages and ease inflation, despite that uptick in consumer spending.

On Friday, we’ll get the monthly jobs report from the BLS, which could further strengthen the argument that labor isn’t so robust these days.

That would be the other way to see bond yields ease and mortgage rates drop.

It’s not the preferred path since it’s not good for the economy or individual workers, but it’s the other way to get lower mortgage rates if inflation isn’t cooperating.

So that’s the report you want to keep an eye on if you’re tracking mortgage rates this week.

The Economic Data Has to Keep Coming in Favorably to Avoid 8% Mortgage Rates

The comments from Williams helped somewhat, as did the cooler-than-expected PCE and JOLTS report.

But without an equally cool jobs report on Friday, we might see mortgage rates continue to tick higher and higher.

At last glance, the 10-year bond yield was at a new 52-week high of 5.30% today, which implies a 30-year fixed around 7.625% or higher.

If the economic reports don’t go our way, 8% mortgage rates aren’t out of the question soon.

Of course, there’s still the other long shot path, getting some sort of good news on the Middle East conflict.

That could really help mortgage rates too.

Read on: Check out my mortgage rate calculator to compare different mortgage rates side by side.

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Court tosses manslaughter sentence due to an AI-generated video of the victim speaking to a judge



An Arizona man’s 10-year manslaughter sentence has been tossed in a case where a video generated by artificial intelligence portrayed the deceased victim addressing a judge before the punishment was imposed.

In a decision released Wednesday, the Arizona Court of Appeals concluded Gabriel Paul Horcasitas must be resentenced in the 2021 shooting death of Christopher Pelkey because the AI video wasn’t reliable.

The court found the video crossed the line, saying it didn’t reflect actual events and presented statements made in the footage as coming directly from the victim.

“Indeed, rather than document an event or recording a particular moment, the AI video presents a depiction of the victim and his thoughts created from the imaginings of the victim’s sister,” the three-judge panel wrote.

Jessica Gattuso, an attorney who represented victims in the case, and Kristen Reller, Horcasitas’ lawyer, declined to comment Thursday on the decision.

Reller had argued Superior Court Judge Todd Lang violated due process protections by relying on AI evidence. Gattuso and prosecutors told the appeals court that the lower-court judge didn’t err, saying the footage was an accurate representation of Pelkey’s character.

In what’s believed to be a first in U.S. courts, Pelkey’s family used AI to create a video of his likeness to give him a voice. Pelkey’s sister, Stacey Wales, raised the idea of her brother speaking for himself after struggling to figure out what he would say.

Wales expected an appeal on the sentence and was disappointed the AI video was cited as the reason, saying her only goal was to humanize her brother for the judge. “It feels unfair because there is a convicted murderer sitting in prison that has blankets and walls of protection around their rights. Where are the rights for the victim?” Wales said.

A victim appeals lawyer has told the family that using AI again could result in another appeal. “We will continue to let his voice be heard in whatever allowable medium we can convey that through the court system,” Wales said.

The AI-generated victim impact statement was played during a May 2025 sentencing hearing after nine of Pelkey’s family members and friends stood before the judge describing how emotionally devastated they were by his killing.

Authorities say Horcasitas, 55, fatally shot Pelkey, 37, during a November 2021 road rage encounter at a stoplight in Chandler, a suburb of Phoenix. Pelkey, who was unarmed, was shot after getting out of his truck and walking toward Horcasitas’ vehicle.

Horcasitas was convicted of manslaughter in Pelkey’s death and endangerment for a gunshot that struck another vehicle at the intersection during the encounter.

The AI rendering of Pelkey said he wished he could still be with his friends and family, voiced a belief in forgiveness and said it was a shame Horcasitas had encountered him because “in another life, we probably could have been friends.” The video didn’t request a specific prison sentence.

Horcasitas’ appellate lawyer argued her client had no meaningful opportunity to rebut material in the AI-generated video.

It’s not clear if attorneys or the court were aware in advance that an AI-generated video would be used. But attorneys representing Pelkey’s family said in court records that Arizona law does not require victims to disclose statements they plan to make in court to prosecutors, defense attorneys or the judge — and that victims can exercise their rights by speaking before the court or submitting statements that are written or recorded on audio or video.

In a statement Thursday, the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office said its prosecutors knew the victim’s family would address the court during sentencing but weren’t aware of the nature of it.

While the use of AI within the court system is expanding, it’s typically been reserved for administrative tasks, legal research and case preparation. In Arizona, it’s helped inform the public of rulings in significant cases.

But using AI to generate victim impact statements marks a new tool for sharing information with the court outside the evidentiary phases.

Reller told the appeals court that the video doesn’t disclose who wrote the words used by the AI version of Pelkey and wasn’t backed up with evidence establishing that its contents accurately reflected Pelkey’s views. It also had an “undue emotional weight” and conveyed an authenticity that wouldn’t have been there had a family member read the same words aloud, Reller said.

Horcasitas’ lawyer contended the judge weighed the statements made in the AI-generated video when deciding on a sentence, but prosecutors argued Lang didn’t consider the footage when issuing the punishment.

Shortly before delivering the sentence, the judge commented that he “loved that AI” but didn’t say from the bench whether the video factored into his decision. Lang said he felt Pelkey’s “obvious forgiveness of Mr. Horcasitas reflects the character I heard about today.”

The family’s lawyers say the judge was already inundated with relevant information from Pelkey’s family and friends before the AI video was played — and that nothing in the video was inflammatory. Horcasitas’ attorney didn’t object to the AI video.

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I Timed Every Hour I Spent Chasing Rent—Here’s What Automating It Actually Saved


One of my tenants has never paid on the first. He pays on the fourth, every month, for two years, and he’s never actually missed. So for three days each month, I wonder if this is the one he skips.

I like the guy, and that’s the problem: liking somebody turns a late fee from a lease term into a moral decision I get to make twelve times a year. I didn’t charge him one for 18 months.

Eventually I got curious about what that was costing me. I went back through three months of texts, bank alerts, and my spreadsheet and added it up: four hours and 40 minutes a month.

Where the time actually went

I expected the number to be high. What surprised me was how little of it came from the tenant I’d have blamed if you’d asked me on the spot: he accounted for less than a fifth of it. I’d spent two years quietly resenting a guy who was, statistically, an ally.

  • Checking for deposits (1st–6th): ~40 min. Not one sitting: six or seven separate checks, like refreshing a group chat.
  • The day-four tenant: ~55 min. The text, the wait, “sending tonight,” the follow-up, and the 20 minutes I spend drafting a firmer message before deleting it.
  • Late-fee math and the decision: ~30 min. What I’m legally allowed to charge, why this month is different, and talking myself into it.
  • Reconciling what came in against what should have: ~50 min.
  • Month-end spreadsheet cleanup: ~45 min.
  • “Did you get it?” receipt requests: ~35 min.
  • Random stuff: a check to deposit, some loose ends: ~25 min.

That’s 280 minutes, 56 hours a year, for three units. Some of you have 30. Maybe don’t run this exercise on a day you already feel behind.

The cost that doesn’t show up

None of that captures the real expense: rent week took up headspace whether I was doing anything or not. I’d be on a call about an RV park acquisition and think, did the Willow Creek payment hit? That’s not a task, so it never made the 280 minutes. It was still the most expensive line item.

The fix

I moved all three units onto Avail and turned on four things. It took one evening.

  • Autopay. Tenants set rent to withdraw automatically on the due date. This solved my day-four guy: money was never his problem; he just needed rent to happen without remembering it.
  • Automated reminders. Avail emails renters before rent is due, so the nudge doesn’t come from me. When it comes from software, nobody’s feelings are involved.
  • Automated late fees. Avail assesses the fee based on the settings you configure. No more deciding whether to be the bad guy this month. One caveat: software applying a fee doesn’t make the fee legal. That’s still your lease and your state.
  • FastPay. Standard deposits land in three business days; FastPay moves eligible ACH payments in as soon as one. It’s on the Unlimited Plus plan ($9/unit/month when I wrote this, versus the free Unlimited plan), so check current pricing before you build cash flow assumptions on it.

What it actually saved

I’m at about 20 minutes a month now:  opening the dashboard once to confirm everything posted.

Twenty minutes against 280 is roughly 52 hours a year back. More than a full workweek, previously spent on the administrative act of receiving money I was already owed.

The money side is smaller than the time side, and I won’t pretend automation made me rich. Two things changed: late fees get charged when they’re incurred, because software doesn’t have a relationship with the tenant. And deposit timing got predictable, which matters when a mortgage payment and an insurance draft are landing on their own schedule.

Avail’s own data says landlords accepting automatic online payments are five times more likely to be paid on time than those collecting cash or checks. That’s their number, not an independent study. Three doors can’t prove a multiplier, but the direction matched.

There’s a side benefit for tenants too: Avail’s CreditBoost lets renters report on-time payments to TransUnion ($3.95/reported month) to help build their credit score, giving them a reason to care about the due date beyond avoiding a late fee.

Your action items this week

Connect your bank account first: everything else depends on it. Build the payment schedule for each unit, including recurring charges beyond base rent; anything you skip stays manual forever.

Then set the grace period and late fee to match your lease and state law, before you invite anyone. Correcting a late fee setting after a tenant’s already been charged under it is a conversation with no good version.

Invite tenants last, and ask them to turn on Autopay in the same message. Don’t make it a separate follow-up they’ll ignore. If someone insists on paying by check, you can record it manually so your rent report stays complete at tax time.

Final thoughts

Nobody’s getting rich automating rent collection. You just stop burning 56 hours a year to receive money you were already owed. And get to spend that time somewhere it compounds.

Ready to stop chasing rent? Avail’s Unlimited plan is free to start, with online rent collection, automated reminders, and automatic late fees built in. Create your account at Avail.com.

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American Airlines Adds Cash and Miles Flight Bookings


American Airlines Adds Cash and Miles Flight Bookings

American Airlines is finally adding more flexibility for AAdvantage members who don’t have enough miles to cover an entire award ticket.

Starting in the coming weeks, eligible AAdvantage members will be able to book flights using a combination of cash and AAdvantage miles. The feature will be available on both AA.com and the American Airlines app.

Members will first search for a flight using the regular cash option. During checkout, American will display available cash-and-miles combinations and provide a slider that lets travelers adjust how much cash and how many miles they want to use.

The initial rollout will be available to U.S. AAdvantage members booking domestic U.S. flights on American, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. American says additional routes will be added later.

To book with cash and miles:

  1. Once logged into the AAdvantage® account, members will select their desired flights with cash.
  2. During checkout, members will be presented with an optional trip insurance offer.
  3. After making their trip insurance selection, available cash and miles options will be displayed. Members can use a slider to choose the combination of cash and miles that best fits their preferences.
  4. Once a selection is made, the cost summary will automatically update to reflect the chosen combination.
  5. Members can then enter their payment information and complete their booking.

Vancouver-area home sales down 8.4% in September as prices fall: board




Home sales in the Vancouver region were 8.4% lower last month compared with a year ago, as fewer apartment-style homes changed hands.

Is It Too Late to Buy Micron Technology Stock After Its 12-Month Gain of 500%?


Graphics processing units (GPUs) are the most important data center chips for processing artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, which is why investors have piled into suppliers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices over the last few years. However, GPUs require an increasing amount of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to keep data flowing smoothly. Without it, bottlenecks would throttle the performance of AI chatbots and agents.

Micron Technology (MU -2.05%) is one of the world’s top suppliers of memory, and it’s experiencing significant AI-related demand across multiple categories, including the data center. As a result, its revenue and earnings are growing at an explosive rate, fueling a whopping 500% gain in its stock over the last 12 months (as of the market close on Thursday, Oct. 1).

Can the rally continue, or have investors already priced in most of the company’s future growth?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Micron just reported a blockbuster set of results for fiscal 2026

Micron wrapped up its 2026 fiscal year on Sept. 3. The company generated a record $133.1 billion in total revenue, a staggering 256% increase from the previous year. That growth rate accelerated significantly from fiscal 2025 when revenue increased by 49%.

AI-related demand for memory fueled the incredible result, and it didn’t come solely from the data center industry. Below are Micron’s four business units, their fiscal 2026 revenue, and their growth rates.

Segment

Fiscal 2026 Revenue

Growth (Year Over Year)

Cloud Memory

$43.1 Billion

219%

Core Data Center

$37.6 Billion

420%

Mobile and Client

$36.6 Billion

209%

Automotive and Embedded

$15.9 Billion

234%

Data source: Micron Technology.

The cloud memory segment is where Micron accounts for memory sales to hyperscale customers (including companies like Amazon and Microsoft), as well as HBM sales to all data center customers. The core data center business includes sales of storage and non-HBM memory solutions to data center operators.

The mobile and client segment includes memory sales to manufacturers of smartphones and personal computers. This is an increasingly important category because AI models are quickly becoming more efficient, so many devices can now process them locally rather than relying on external data centers.

Finally, the automotive and embedded business is where Micron accounts for memory sales to car and robot manufacturers. The company says vehicles fitted with Level 4 autonomous capabilities (full self-driving) require more than double the memory and storage capacity than vehicles with older Level 2 and Level 3 technologies. Moreover, humanoid robots are expected to use as much memory as Level 4 autonomous vehicles, so both of these emerging industries present Micron with an enormous opportunity.

In a series of prepared remarks to shareholders released on Sept. 30, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said memory supply could be even tighter in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 compared to fiscal 2026, suggesting the company’s revenue is likely to continue growing at a brisk pace.

Micron stock is technically cheap, but there’s a catch

The ongoing global shortage of memory is giving suppliers the ability to dictate prices, significantly boosting their profit margins. As a result, Micron’s earnings exploded higher by 879% to $74.33 per share during fiscal 2026. That places its stock at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 14.7, so it’s cheaper than both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes which trade at P/E ratios of 23.5 and 35.2, respectively.

Wall Street’s average estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests Micron could grow its earnings to $176.69 per share in fiscal 2027, placing its stock at a forward P/E of just 6.2. But why is a company growing at Micron’s pace trading at such a steep discount to the broader market? Simply put, the semiconductor industry has always been highly cyclical, so investors know the recent bonanza probably won’t last forever.

Micron Technology Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-2.05%) $-22.50

Current Price

$1,074.89

Micron and its competitors are racing to build more manufacturing capacity, which will eventually ease supply constraints and put downward pressure on prices. Micron won’t be able to maintain its current level of earnings when that time comes, so its stock might be more expensive than it currently appears at face value. Plus, the rising cost of chips and components could significantly impact demand in the near future.

Last Tuesday, ChatGPT creator OpenAI launched a new $500-per-month subscription plan to suit its heaviest users. At the same time, it halved the number of tokens available through its $200-per-month subscription, which used to be its top plan. In essence, the company has increased the price of its most expensive offering by 150% overnight, and rising infrastructure costs are almost certainly the reason why.

A few months ago, a survey conducted by UBS Group found that 60% of businesses were already routing some AI tasks to cheaper, more efficient models in an effort to reduce costs. These models use less computing power, so if this trend continues, Micron and every other semiconductor company could see a gradual drop in demand.

With all of that in mind, I personally won’t be buying Micron stock at the current price. I’m not predicting it will suffer a sharp decline in the near term, but it’s very difficult to determine its fair value given the potential shift in supply demand dynamics over the next couple of years.

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SAT Scores Rise For A Second Straight Year As The Test Turns 100


The average SAT score for the high school class of 2026 climbed to 1045, a 16-point gain over the class of 2025, according to the College Board’s 2026 SAT Suite annual report released this week. It marks the second consecutive year of increases, with scores up across all demographic groups. This marks a positive improvement coming out of Covid as more students choose to send SAT scores even when colleges don’t require them.

Both test sections improved. Reading and Writing rose 7 points to 528, which the College Board says returns that section to pre-pandemic levels. Math gained 9 points to 517 but still trails the 523 average posted by the class of 2020. Students can compare their own results against what counts as a good SAT score.

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Why It Matters

The SAT improvement is coming at a time when test optional is ending at many colleges nationwide. Every Ivy League school now requires test scores, and Notre Dame will require the SAT or ACT starting with fall 2028 applicants. In the class of 2026, 42% of test takers met or exceeded both the Reading and Writing and Math college readiness benchmarks, approaching the 45% the class of 2019 reached, per the College Board.

The report also found that more than 1.3 million students earned SAT scores that affirmed or exceeded their high school GPA, making the score a strength on their application. That held for more than 82% of Black and Latino students and nearly 80% of first-generation students, a useful signal at a time when grade inflation makes GPAs harder for admissions offices to read.

The Details

  • More than 1.95 million students in the class of 2026 took the SAT, a 2.5% decrease from the prior class and the first drop since the pandemic-affected class of 2021.
  • Participation still grew in 42 states and the District of Columbia, while international participation rose 13.5%.
  • SAT School Day, often free to students, accounted for 65% of test takers, with more than 10,000 schools offering it.
  • About 3 million students took the PSAT/NMSQT, the only qualifying test for the National Merit Scholarship. Mean scores on PSAT-related tests ticked up after three straight years of declines.

How This Connects

Math remains the weak spot, and that lines up with other data we’ve tracked. U.S. teens ranked 23rd in math on the 2026 global exam, and UC San Diego’s remedial math class filled up this year.

For families, scores carry a direct financial payoff because many schools tie merit aid to test results, which can offset part of the $34,019 families spent on college last year.

What’s Next

The class of 2027 is testing now, and its fall SAT and PSAT/NMSQT results will show whether the math recovery continues.

Families deciding whether to test can check which colleges require the SAT or ACT for 2027 and compare paid and free SAT prep options, including the College Board’s free Official SAT Practice on Khan Academy.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post SAT Scores Rise For A Second Straight Year As The Test Turns 100 appeared first on The College Investor.