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Fed officials see rates likely rising to curb high inflation




Fed officials see rates likely rising to curb high inflation

Rove Launches Android App, Plus “Rove the World” Promotion


Rove Launches Android App, Plus Boosted Rates

Rove has finally launched an app for Android adding to the app that was recently released for iOS.

To celebrate the Android launch and having both Rove apps live, they’re also launching Rove the World, a limited-time promotion with increased Rove Miles earnings across 30 different travel merchants.

From September 24, 2026 through September 28, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. EDT, Rove members can earn boosted rates across vacation rentals, flights, tours, rental cars, luggage, cruises, and more, including:

  • Viator 8x (Rove Miles per $1 spent)
  • Vrbo 7x
  • GetYourGuide 10x
  • Hertz 4x
  • Thrifty Car Rental 2x
  • Enterprise 2x
  • Dollar Car Rental 2x
  • Best Western 4x
  • Samsonite 5x
  • American Tourister 4x
  • Luggage Forward 6x
  • Away 4x
  • City Sightseeing 8x
  • Big Bus Tours 8x
  • ResortPass 4x
  • ParkSleepFly 15x
  • Eatwith 7x
  • CruiseDirect 3x
  • Cruises.com 2x
  • MSC Cruises 3x
  • British Airways 1x
  • Southwest Airlines 2x
  • JetBlue TrueBlue 2x
  • United MileagePlus 2x
  • Hilton Honors 2x
  • Marriott Bonvoy 2x
  • IHG Rewards Club 2x
  • Air France KLM Flying Blue 2x
  • Etihad Guest 2x
  • Choice Privileges 2x

The promotion is designed to celebrate Rove’s expansion across mobile while giving members more ways to earn throughout an entire trip.

If you don’t have a Rove account, you can sign up now to earn a limited time bonus of 1,000 miles instantly.

SpaceX Stock: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios


Take a look at Wall Street’s projections for Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -4.11%) stock, and you might be a little confused about what to expect. One analyst, for example, has an $800 price target on shares. Another analyst has a price target of just $75.

Of course, both analysts have good reasons for their price targets. And for the most part, they’re digesting the same information available to every other investor. The difference of opinion doesn’t necessarily stem from the facts on hand, but rather from expectations about the company’s ability to execute its growth initiatives.

If you’re a SpaceX investor or own any other space stocks or rocket stocks, you’ll want to understand the key drivers for SpaceX’s valuation.

Space Exploration Technologies

Today’s Change

(-4.11%) $-6.36

Current Price

$148.36

This is why Wall Street disagrees on SpaceX stock

To understand why Wall Street is split on SpaceX stock, it’s important to first identify where most of SpaceX’s growth opportunity lies. Then, we can get a better idea of which growth initiatives are actually meaningful in valuing the stock. “We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” SpaceX claims in its IPO prospectus. “We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion.”

Right away, we can start to understand why analysts disagree about the stock. Some believe SpaceX will be successful in targeting its large claimed growth runway. Others are more skeptical.

When we break down SpaceX’s total growth opportunity in more detail, it becomes clear that one segment reigns supreme in generating long-term value. Of its total claimed $28.5 trillion addressable market, just $370 billion stems from “space-based solutions,” a category that largely consists of its rocket launch business. Another $1.6 trillion of value stems from “connectivity,” which mostly includes SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network.

A whopping $26.5 trillion, however, deals exclusively with one segment: AI. According to SpaceX, that sum breaks down into $2.4 trillion for AI infrastructure, $760 billion for consumer subscriptions, $600 billion for digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion for enterprise applications. So-called “enterprise applications,” therefore, are the key driver to SpaceX’s long-term growth plans.

According to HyperFrame Research, “That enterprise figure is not a software market estimate; it is the Digital Cooperation Organization’s projected size of the entire global digital economy (blended across several estimates).” In other words, HyperFrame Research believes that this figure “relies on the premise that AI agents displace white-collar labor.”

A rocket flying in front of the moon.

Image source: Getty Images.

Wall Street may disagree on many points regarding SpaceX stock. Some analysts believe orbital data centers are feasible. Others do not. Some analysts forecast a Starlink monopoly for years to come. Others see mounting competition. Some analysts fully expect SpaceX to establish a manufacturing base on the moon. Others remain skeptical.

Regardless of those disagreements, one thing is clear: SpaceX is relying on AI to replace a large share of global human labor to justify its valuation. If that fails to occur — or even if it occurs on a much longer timeline than experts think — it will have a disproportionate impact on the company’s long-term stock price.

The Most INSANE Couple Ever | Financial Audit



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Student Loan Forgiveness Programs In 2026: Every Way To Qualify


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Key Points
  • Public Service Loan Forgiveness is the only broad federal program that still cancels balances tax-free, and it survived the July 1, 2026 overhaul intact.
  • Income-driven forgiveness now takes 20, 25, or 30 years depending on your plan, and starting in 2026 the forgiven amount counts as taxable income.
  • Beyond those two, there are more than 80 career, military, state, employer, and discharge programs. Most borrowers qualify for exactly one, and this list is organized so you can find it.

There is no single student loan forgiveness program. There are dozens, and the one that fits you depends on your job, your loan type, your income, and in some cases your health or what your school did. The July 1, 2026 federal student loan overhaul rewrote the biggest category (income-driven forgiveness), ended the SAVE plan, and made most forgiveness taxable again. It left the career and discharge programs alone.

This list covers every federal path we can verify as of September 2026, grouped by how much debt each one actually cancels for how many people. The first tier is where the money is. The later tiers are real but narrow. If you’re not sure where to start, use the table below, then run your numbers through our student loan calculator.

What’s In This List
  1. Which Forgiveness Path Is Yours?
  2. Tier 1: Federal Programs That Cancel Your Balance
  3. Tier 2: Career-Based Repayment Programs
  4. Tier 3: Military Repayment Programs
  5. Tier 4: State Programs
  6. Tier 5: Employer Assistance
  7. Tier 6: Volunteer Service (AmeriCorps)
  8. Programs That Are Limited, Ended, Or Overstated
  9. Private Student Loans
  10. Tax Consequences In 2026
  11. How To Avoid Scams
  12. Frequently Asked Questions

Which Forgiveness Path Is Yours?

Start with your situation, not the program name. This table covers the paths that cancel the most debt for the most borrowers, with links to each section below.

Find Your Forgiveness Path
Your situation Best path Time to forgiveness Taxable?
Work for government or a 501(c)(3) nonprofit PSLF 120 qualifying payments (10 years) Tax-free
PSLF employment, but time in forbearance PSLF Buyback Pay for missing months, then discharge Tax-free
Private-sector job, loans before July 1, 2026 IBR 20 or 25 years Taxable
Private-sector job, loans after July 1, 2026 RAP 30 years Taxable
Total and permanent disability TPD discharge On approval Tax-free
School closed or defrauded you Closed school / borrower defense Months to years Tax-free
Teacher at a low-income school Teacher Loan Forgiveness 5 years Tax-free
Health care, legal, veterinary, or federal job Career repayment programs 2–3 year service contracts Mostly taxable
Military enlistment Branch repayment programs 3–6 year enlistment Taxable
Private student loans Refinancing or settlement No forgiveness program —
Federal Direct Loans unless noted. Tax status is federal; some states tax forgiveness separately. The College Investor, September 2026.

One distinction matters throughout this list. Forgiveness and discharge cancel your balance. Repayment assistance sends money to your lender while you keep paying. The career, military, state, and employer programs are mostly repayment assistance, and most of it is taxable. The tax section covers the details.

How To Apply: The Three Paths Most Borrowers Use

These programs pay out. The Department of Education’s own figures, compiled in our forgiveness tracker, show what the big federal paths have canceled so far:

$87.6BPSLF1,183,600 borrowers, through Sept. 30, 2025
$56.5BIDR forgiveness1.4 million borrowers via the payment count adjustment
$34.5BBorrower defense and closed school1.95 million borrowers
$18.7BDisability discharge633,000 borrowers

Teacher Loan Forgiveness adds another $4.2 billion for 486,300 teachers through FY2024. Every one of these programs is free to apply for through StudentAid.gov and your servicer. These are the steps for the three that cover the majority of borrowers; the program sections below cover the rest.

PSLF · $87.6 billion forgiven for 1.18 million borrowers
  1. Confirm your employer with the PSLF employer search on StudentAid.gov. Any government agency or 501(c)(3) qualifies.
  2. Make sure your loans are Direct Loans. FFEL and Perkins loans must be consolidated first.
  3. Enroll in IBR or RAP (or the 10-year Standard plan) and pay on time. Since July 1, 2026, late payments don’t count.
  4. Submit the PSLF form through the PSLF Help Tool at least once a year and every time you change jobs. Your servicer updates your qualifying payment count.
  5. At 120 payments, forgiveness is processed automatically. If you have gaps from forbearance, request buyback.
Income-driven forgiveness (IBR or RAP) · $56.5 billion for 1.4 million borrowers
  1. Run both plans through our RAP vs. IBR comparison. Months on IBR count toward RAP’s clock; months on RAP do not count toward IBR’s.
  2. Apply at StudentAid.gov (about 10 minutes) and authorize IRS income sharing so your annual recertification is automatic.
  3. Keep a record of every payment. Forgiveness at 20, 25, or 30 years is processed by the servicer based on the count.
  4. Plan for the tax bill. Use the tax bomb calculator and read the insolvency rules a few years before your date.
Disability discharge · $18.7 billion for 633,000 borrowers
  1. If you receive SSDI or SSI or a VA unemployability rating, the Department matches records automatically and mails a discharge notice. You can opt out but don’t need to apply.
  2. Otherwise, apply at StudentAid.gov with a certification from a physician, NP, PA, or licensed psychologist.
  3. Don’t take out a new federal loan or TEACH Grant for three years after discharge; that’s the only thing that reinstates the debt.

Tier 1

Federal Student Loan Forgiveness Programs That Cancel Your Balance

These paths account for nearly all of the federal student loan debt that actually gets erased. Federal Student Aid data compiled by Student Loan Planner shows PSLF alone had discharged $87.6 billion for 1,183,600 borrowers through September 30, 2025, per FSA’s PSLF reporting. Every program in this tier requires federal Direct Loans (or consolidation into them).

Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF)

Cancels Full remaining balanceTime 120 qualifying paymentsTax Tax-freeStatus Active, unchanged by July 2026 overhaul

PSLF forgives your remaining Direct Loan balance, tax-free, after 120 qualifying monthly payments while working full-time for a qualifying employer. Qualifying employers are any federal, state, local, or tribal government agency and any 501(c)(3) nonprofit. The payments have to be made under an income-driven plan (IBR or RAP for new enrollments; PAYE and ICR until they sunset) or the 10-year Standard plan. Our PSLF qualification breakdown walks through the employer, loan, and payment tests.

Two things changed in 2026. Starting July 1, 2026, a payment only counts if it’s made on time, after the bill is issued and by the due date, under the Department of Education’s final rule. And in August, the Department corrected a counting error that had credited months spent in general or hardship forbearance since May 2024, so some borrowers saw their PSLF counts drop.

The four reasons PSLF forms get denied haven’t changed, according to Federal Student Aid’s PSLF data reports:

  1. Not enough qualifying payments yet. The form was filed before 120, or months in the wrong plan or in forbearance didn’t count.
  2. Missing or mismatched employer information. EIN, dates, or signature problems on the employment certification.
  3. Loans that aren’t Direct Loans. FFEL and Perkins loans have to be consolidated before they count.
  4. Employment dates that don’t cover the payments claimed. A gap between jobs, or a certification that ends before the payment period does.

Three of the four are paperwork, which is why our PSLF walkthrough recommends certifying employment every year rather than waiting until payment 120.

PSLF Buyback

Cancels Forbearance gaps in your 120Backlog ~88,000 pending (Apr 2026)Tax Tax-freeStatus Active, 20+ month waits

Buyback lets you pay for months you spent in deferment or forbearance while working for a qualifying employer, so those months count toward your 120. It’s the main route for borrowers who sat in the SAVE forbearance from 2024 through 2026, since those months earned no PSLF credit on their own. You need 120 months of approved qualifying employment before you can apply, and the buyback amount is calculated using the income-driven plan you were on before SAVE, not SAVE’s formula.

The backlog is the problem. About 88,000 buyback requests were pending as of April 30, 2026, according to the Department’s court-ordered status report, and the Department stopped publishing those reports after May. Approval rates run around 96%, but borrowers who applied in late 2024 were still waiting in August 2026. Periods spent on RAP or the new Tiered Standard plan cannot be bought back.

Temporary Expanded PSLF (TEPSLF)

Cancels Full balance for wrong-plan borrowersFunding ~$800M, first-come first-servedRemaining Roughly half (our estimate)Tax Tax-free

TEPSLF covers borrowers who had qualifying employment and 120 payments but were on the wrong repayment plan (Graduated or Extended, for example). Congress funded it with about $800 million starting in 2018, first-come, first-served. Federal Student Aid data shows $0.3 billion paid out to 7,300 borrowers through mid-2025, per our forgiveness tracker, and by our estimate roughly half of the money is now spent or committed to approved borrowers. At the current pace that leaves two to three years before the fund runs out, and the Department will not announce the end in advance. Our TEPSLF walkthrough explains how to request it, which is now done through the standard PSLF form.

Income-Driven Repayment Forgiveness

Cancels Balance left at end of termTime IBR 20/25 yrs · RAP 30 yrsTax Taxable since Jan 1, 2026

Every income-driven plan forgives whatever balance is left at the end of its term. The July 2026 overhaul cut the menu from four plans to two for new enrollments, and it changed the terms for everyone. Which plan you can use depends on when your loans were disbursed, and our IDR plan comparison covers the full decision.

Income-Based Repayment (IBR) is the legacy plan that survived. If you borrowed before July 1, 2026, you can enroll in IBR: 10% of discretionary income with forgiveness after 20 years if you were a new borrower on or after July 1, 2014, or 15% and 25 years if you borrowed earlier. The “partial financial hardship” test that used to block higher earners from enrolling was removed by the 2025 law, after a delay for system issues. Payments are capped at the 10-year Standard amount.

The Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP) is the new plan and the only income-driven option for loans first disbursed on or after July 1, 2026. Payments run from $10 a month at $10,000 of AGI or less up to 10% of AGI above $100,000, minus $50 per dependent, with unpaid interest waived and up to $50 a month matched toward principal. Forgiveness comes after 360 qualifying payments, or 30 years. Our RAP explainer and RAP calculator cover the formula.

PAYE and ICR still exist for borrowers already enrolled, but both sunset by July 1, 2028. ICR borrowers move to IBR and keep their payment counts. Our PAYE and ICR pages explain what enrolled borrowers should do before then. Parent PLUS loans are excluded from RAP, and consolidations disbursed after June 30, 2026 lost access to IBR too, which closed the double-consolidation path for parents.

SAVE is over. A federal appeals court ordered the plan terminated in March 2026, and servicers began sending 90-day exit notices on July 1. Borrowers who don’t pick a plan get moved to Standard. The forbearance months never counted toward forgiveness, and choosing between RAP and IBR is the decision every former SAVE borrower has to make.

IDR forgiveness is taxable again. The federal tax exclusion for income-driven forgiveness expired December 31, 2025. Anyone reaching 20, 25, or 30 years from here on owes federal income tax on the canceled amount, as we detailed when the tax bomb returned. Borrowers who hit their forgiveness date before 2026 but were processed later won’t get a 1099-C, under the terms of the AFT settlement.

Total And Permanent Disability (TPD) Discharge

Cancels Full balance + TEACH Grant obligationsRoutes Physician/NP/PA/psychologist, SSA, or VATax Permanently tax-free

If you can’t work because of a disability, the Department discharges your federal loans and TEACH Grant obligations. Three routes qualify under 34 CFR 685.213: certification from a physician, nurse practitioner, physician assistant, or licensed psychologist; Social Security documentation showing SSDI or SSI with a review scheduled five to seven years out (or other qualifying criteria); or a VA determination of unemployability due to a service-connected disability. Our disability discharge explainer covers the automatic matching the Department does with SSA and VA records.

There’s a three-year monitoring period after discharge, but income is no longer checked. The only thing that reinstates the loans is taking out a new Direct Loan or TEACH Grant within those three years. TPD discharge is permanently tax-free under the 2025 law, which also made the exclusion apply to private student loans that offer it.

Closed School Discharge

Cancels Loans for the program you couldn’t finishWindow Enrolled, or withdrew within 180 days of closureTax Tax-free

If your school closed while you were enrolled, or within 180 days after you withdrew, and you didn’t finish your program elsewhere through a teach-out or transfer, your federal loans for that program can be discharged. The Department also discharges automatically one year after closure for borrowers who haven’t re-enrolled. The borrower defense and closed-school process runs through your servicer.

Borrower Defense To Repayment

Cancels Loans tied to school misconductStandard 1994 or 2016 rules (2022 rule delayed to 2035)Tax Tax-free

Borrower defense cancels federal loans when a school misled you or broke state law in a way that caused you to borrow. The 2022 rule that would have made claims easier remains blocked by the courts, and the 2025 law delayed it to 2035, so claims are decided under the 1994 or 2016 standards depending on when you borrowed, according to the Department’s current process. Our borrower defense application walkthrough explains which standard applies to you.

The Sweet v. McMahon settlement is still being worked through. Class members whose decisions the Department missed by its deadlines are entitled to full settlement relief, with notices sent in March and June 2026. About 170,000 post-class claims remain in the queue.

False Certification Discharge

If someone took out a federal loan in your name through identity theft, or the school forged your signature or certified you for a loan you weren’t eligible for, you can have it discharged. File a police report, then submit the false certification application through your servicer. Our defrauded-borrower page has the forms.

Death Discharge

Federal student loans, including Parent PLUS loans, are discharged when the borrower dies (or, for Parent PLUS, when the student dies). The discharge is permanently tax-free under the 2025 law. Private loans are different, and what happens to student loans when you die depends on the lender and whether there’s a cosigner, who can be left with the full balance.

Bankruptcy Discharge

Standard Undue hardship (adversary proceeding)DOJ data 87% of first 652 attestation cases dischargedTax Tax-free

Student loans can be discharged in bankruptcy, but only if you prove “undue hardship” through an adversary proceeding. The Justice Department’s November 2022 guidance, which lets borrowers submit an attestation form instead of litigating every factor, is still in effect, and the DOJ reported that 87% of the first 652 cases under it ended in full or partial discharge. Our student loan bankruptcy explainer covers when it’s worth hiring an attorney who does this work.

Tier 2

Career-Based Student Loan Repayment Programs

These programs pay your lender directly in exchange for a service commitment, in nearly every case at a designated shortage site. Nearly all of them are taxable unless the program says otherwise. Health care has the most money by far, and our graduate school forgiveness list goes deeper on the professional-degree programs.

Career Repayment Programs At A Glance (2026)
Program Who Maximum Commitment Tax
NHSC Loan Repayment Primary care, dental, behavioral health $75,000 primary care / $50,000 other (2 yrs) 2 years, HPSA site Tax-free
NHSC Students to Service Final-year med, dental, nursing students $120,000 (+$40,000 maternity care areas) 3 years Tax-free
NHSC Rural Community / SUD Substance use treatment clinicians $100,000 rural / $75,000 SUD 3 years Tax-free
Nurse Corps RNs, APRNs, nurse faculty 60% of debt + 25% optional 3rd year 2–3 years, critical shortage facility Taxable
HRSA Faculty LRP Health-professions faculty $40,000 + tax offset 2 years Offset paid
NIH LRP Biomedical researchers $50,000 per year 50% research time, 2 years Offset paid
Indian Health Service Clinicians at IHS sites $50,000 (2 yrs), renewable 2 years 24% offset
DOJ Attorney SLRP Justice Dept. attorneys $6,000/yr, $60,000 lifetime 3 years $5,250 tax-free
John R. Justice Public defenders, prosecutors $10,000/yr, $60,000 lifetime 3 years Taxable
Federal SLRP (OPM) Federal employees, agency discretion $10,000/yr, $60,000 lifetime 3 years Taxable
USDA Veterinary (VMLRP) Vets in shortage areas $40,000 per year 3 years Taxable
Teacher Loan Forgiveness Teachers at low-income schools $17,500 (math/science/SPED) / $5,000 5 consecutive years Tax-free
Amounts from each agency’s current program page, verified September 2026. Application cycles are annual and most 2026 windows have closed; dates are in each section below.

Health Care

National Health Service Corps (NHSC) Loan Repayment Program. Up to $75,000 for a two-year full-time commitment in primary care at a Health Professional Shortage Area site ($80,000 with the Spanish-language enhancement), or $50,000 for behavioral health and dental. Half-time awards are half those amounts. NHSC awards are tax-free, and the 2026 application cycle closed with awards issued by September 30. Our doctor forgiveness breakdown compares NHSC to PSLF for physicians.

NHSC Students to Service. Up to $120,000 for final-year medical, dental, and nursing students who commit to three years at an NHSC site, plus a $40,000 supplement for maternity care target areas. The next cycle is listed as “opening soon.”

NHSC Substance Use Disorder and Rural Community programs. Up to $75,000 (SUD Workforce) or $100,000 (Rural Community) for three-year commitments at approved treatment sites, per HRSA. Both cycles closed for 2026.

Nurse Corps Loan Repayment Program. Pays 60% of your unpaid nursing education debt over two years, with an optional third year for another 25%, for RNs, APRNs, and nurse faculty at critical shortage facilities. HRSA notes the awards are not tax-exempt. Our nurse forgiveness page covers the state programs that stack with it.

Faculty Loan Repayment Program. Up to $40,000 over two years for health-professions faculty from disadvantaged backgrounds, plus funding to offset the tax, through HRSA.

NIH Loan Repayment Programs. Up to $50,000 per year for researchers who commit at least half their time to qualifying biomedical or behavioral research at a nonprofit or government institution. The extramural cycle opened September 1, 2026 and closes November 19, 2026, with awards starting July 2027.

Indian Health Service Loan Repayment Program. Up to $50,000 for an initial two-year commitment at an Indian health facility, with annual extensions until the debt is repaid. The FY2027 competition opens October 1, 2026.

DOJ Attorney Student Loan Repayment Program (ASLRP). $6,000 per year, $60,000 lifetime, paid directly to the lender for Justice Department attorneys with at least $10,000 in federal loans who sign a three-year service agreement. The 2026 cycle closed May 15; 2027 dates post in the spring. Our lawyer forgiveness page covers law school LRAPs too.

John R. Justice Program. Up to $10,000 per year and $60,000 lifetime for state and federal public defenders and prosecutors with a three-year commitment, administered through state agencies. The FY2025 solicitation totaled $2.46 million nationally, and no FY2026 solicitation had been posted as of September 2026.

Federal Employees

Federal Student Loan Repayment Program. Agencies can pay up to $10,000 per year and $60,000 total toward an employee’s federal loans in exchange for a three-year service agreement. It’s a recruitment tool, not an entitlement: in calendar year 2024, 36 agencies paid $150.8 million to 16,851 employees, an average of $8,951 each, according to OPM’s annual report. The payments are taxable. Our employer repayment assistance list includes federal agencies alongside private companies.

Veterinarians

USDA Veterinary Medicine Loan Repayment Program. Up to $40,000 per year for three years for veterinarians who practice in a USDA-designated shortage area. The FY2026 cycle closed March 5, 2026, with service starting January 1, 2027. Awards are reported on a 1099-G and are taxable.

Teachers

Teacher Loan Forgiveness. Up to $17,500 for secondary math, science, and special education teachers, or $5,000 for other teachers, after five consecutive full academic years at a low-income school listed in the Teacher Cancellation Low Income Directory. It’s tax-free, but the same five years can’t also count toward PSLF, so most teachers with large balances are better off on PSLF alone. A bill to allow both is pending in the Senate and has not moved.

Tier 3

Military Student Loan Repayment

Every branch offers loan repayment as an enlistment incentive, but the terms are set at enlistment, tied to specific occupations, and in most cases require giving up the Montgomery GI Bill. Payments are taxable. Our military borrower resource covers the interest-rate cap and PSLF rules that apply to service members on top of these.

Army College Loan Repayment Program. Up to $65,000 for active-duty enlistees in critical specialties: 33⅓% of the balance or $1,500 per year, whichever is greater, for three years, per Army benefits. The Army Reserve version pays up to $20,000 on a six-year enlistment. Army JAG officers can get up to $65,000, and Army health professionals can get repayment that goarmy.com lists at up to $250,000 depending on specialty.

Navy Loan Repayment Program. Up to $65,000 on federal loans only, available at enlistment and reenlistment for qualifying ratings, per navy.com. Navy health professionals can get up to $40,000 per year, less about 22% withheld for federal tax.

Air Force and Space Force. The enlisted College Loan Repayment Program pays 33⅓% of unpaid principal per year, up to $21,664.50 annually for three years, according to airforce.com. Air Force JAG offers up to $65,000 over three years after the first year of service, contingent on funding.

National Guard and Reserves. The Army National Guard Student Loan Repayment Program pays up to $50,000 (15% or $500 per year, whichever is greater) on a six-year commitment in a critical-skill vacancy. The Air Force Reserve program caps at $3,500 per year and $20,000 lifetime, per ARPC.

Tier 4

State Student Loan Forgiveness Programs

Nearly every state runs at least one repayment program, and most target health care, teaching, or rural work. A few are broader. Our state-by-state directory lists every program we track; these are the ones worth knowing about even if you don’t live there.

Maine Student Loan Repayment Tax Credit. A refundable credit of up to $2,500 per year and $25,000 lifetime for Maine residents paying on loans for an associate, bachelor’s, or graduate degree, per Maine Revenue Services. It’s the closest thing any state has to universal forgiveness.

Maryland SmartBuy 3.0. Pays off up to $25,000 in student debt (raised from $20,000 in June 2026) for first-time homebuyers who finance through the state’s mortgage program, per Maryland DHCD.

California State Loan Repayment Program. $50,000 for a two-year full-time commitment at a qualifying health site, with $20,000 extensions. The 2026 cycle closed September 15; the next opens July 2027.

New York Get On Your Feet. Covers 24 months of income-driven payments for recent graduates earning under $50,000, but HESC lists the program as postponed until fall 2026.

Kansas Rural Opportunity Zones closed to new applicants June 30, 2026. Existing participants continue receiving up to $15,000 over five years.

State programs come with a state tax question too. Several states tax forgiven student debt even when the federal government doesn’t.

Tier 5

Employer Student Loan Repayment Assistance

The 2025 law made the Section 127 exclusion permanent: employers can pay up to $5,250 per year toward your student loans tax-free, and the cap is indexed to inflation starting in 2027, according to the National Association of Tax Professionals. That removed the main reason companies hesitated. Our list of employers offering student loan repayment is updated as programs change.

The benefit is still uncommon. The International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans found 14% of employers offered it in 2024, up from 4% in 2019. Among the larger programs: Fidelity pays up to $15,000 for full-time employees, Google matches up to $2,500 per year, and Chipotle matches student loan payments with up to a 4% 401(k) contribution under the SECURE 2.0 provision that treats loan payments like retirement deferrals. Ask HR before you assume your employer doesn’t offer something; SECURE 2.0 matches in particular are new and under-advertised.

Tier 6

Volunteer Student Loan Forgiveness (AmeriCorps)

AmeriCorps Segal Education Award. Completing a term with AmeriCorps State and National, VISTA, or NCCC earns an education award you can apply to qualified federal or state student loans or to future tuition. The full-time award is tied by law to the maximum Pell Grant for the fiscal year your term is approved, a link written into the program by the Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act of 2009, so it moves whenever Congress adjusts Pell. For 2025–2026 that figure is $7,395, per AmeriCorps. Shorter terms earn a set percentage of the full-time award based on the minimum hours required:

  • Full-time (1,700+ hours): 100%, or $7,395 for 2025–2026
  • Three-quarter time (1,200+ hours): 70%
  • Half-time (900+ hours): 50%
  • Reduced half-time (675+ hours): about 39%
  • Quarter-time (450+ hours): about 26%
  • Minimal time or summer associate (300+ hours): about 21%
  • Abbreviated time (100+ hours): about 5.6%

The award is subject to federal and state income tax in the year you use it, and interest that accrued on qualified loans during service can be paid separately on request.

Casual volunteering doesn’t qualify for anything. The award can also pay future tuition, so it’s worth more to someone heading to graduate school than to someone whose remaining balance is already small.

Programs That Are Limited, Ended, Or Overstated

Several programs still show up in search results and forgiveness lists but cancel very little debt today. We keep them here so you know what they actually are.

Perkins Loan Cancellation. No new loans since 2017 Existing Perkins borrowers can still cancel up to 100% over five years (15%, 15%, 20%, 20%, 30%) for qualifying work: teaching in a shortage field or low-income school, nursing, law enforcement, firefighting, Head Start, child and family services, and several others under 34 CFR 674.53. Apply through the school that made the loan. Our Perkins repayment page has the full profession list.

SEMA Loan Forgiveness Program. $2,000, 10 recipients This is a $2,000 award from the SEMA Memorial Scholarship Fund for employees of member companies in the automotive aftermarket, not a government program. Ten people received it in 2026. Applications for 2026 closed in April.

Broad or “hardship” forgiveness. Does not exist There is no general federal forgiveness program. The Supreme Court struck down the $10,000–$20,000 plan in 2023, and the Biden administration withdrew its hardship rule in December 2024. Nothing has replaced either, and the current administration has said it won’t pursue broad cancellation. Any company promising “Biden forgiveness” or “new 2026 forgiveness” for a fee is running a scam.

Foster parents, trade school, and other niche paths. These mostly route through the programs above (PSLF for agency employees, state programs for specific trades). We cover them in foster parent forgiveness and trade school forgiveness.

Private Student Loans

No federal program forgives private student loans. PSLF, IDR, TPD (unless the lender opts in), and every program in the tiers above apply to federal loans only. A handful of lenders discharge on death or disability, and Navient offers a school-misconduct cancellation for select borrowers, but that’s the extent of it.

If your private loan payment is the problem, the tools are refinancing to a lower rate, negotiating a settlement if you’re in default, or bankruptcy under the same undue-hardship standard as federal loans. Our refinance lender comparison covers current rates. Never refinance federal loans into a private loan if you’re pursuing anything on this list; you lose every program in Tier 1 permanently.

Tax Consequences Of Student Loan Forgiveness In 2026

The rules split into three groups after December 31, 2025. Our taxes on forgiveness explainer covers how the 1099-C works; this table is the short version.

Is Your Forgiveness Taxable? (Federal, 2026)
Program Federal tax status Why
PSLF and TEPSLF Tax-free IRC 108(f)(1), unchanged
Death and disability discharge Tax-free Made permanent by the 2025 law; covers private loans too
Teacher Loan Forgiveness, NHSC awards Tax-free Profession-based exclusions in IRC 108(f)
Closed school, borrower defense, false certification Tax-free IRS safe harbor for school-related discharges
Employer assistance (up to $5,250/yr) Tax-free Section 127, permanent, indexed from 2027
IBR, PAYE, ICR, RAP forgiveness Taxable ARPA exclusion expired Dec 31, 2025
Military, state, federal-employee, JRJ, VMLRP, Nurse Corps Taxable Treated as income; some programs pay a partial offset
AmeriCorps award (when used) Taxable Taxed in the year applied to loans or tuition
Federal treatment only. State treatment varies.

The math. $50,000 of taxable forgiveness at a 22% marginal rate adds $11,000 to your federal bill in a single year. That’s still less than $50,000, so forgiveness is worth pursuing, but you need to plan for the bill. Our tax bomb calculator estimates it for your balance and bracket.

Insolvency. If your total debts exceed the fair market value of everything you own on the day the loan is forgiven, you can exclude forgiven debt up to the amount of your insolvency using IRS Form 982. Borrowers reaching 20- or 25-year forgiveness with large balances and modest assets are the ones this helps most, and our insolvency walkthrough shows the calculation.

What Happens After Forgiveness

Your servicer reports the loan to the credit bureaus as paid in full with a zero balance. Forgiveness is not a negative mark; the account simply closes, and your payment history on it stays. Any remaining loans on the same account stay open. If you were mid-buyback or had multiple servicers, check all three reports about 60 days after the discharge letter, and dispute any loan still showing a balance through the Fair Credit Reporting Act process.

For taxable forgiveness, the servicer sends a Form 1099-C the following January showing the canceled amount, which goes on your return as income unless you qualify for the insolvency exclusion. PSLF, death, and disability discharges don’t generate a 1099-C. If you overpaid before a discharge was processed, the Department refunds payments made after your 120th qualifying payment; those refunds have taken months in past cycles, so track the date of your final qualifying payment.

How To Avoid Forgiveness Scams

Every program on this page is free to apply for. The federal ones run through StudentAid.gov and your servicer; the career programs run through the agency that funds them. Companies that charge to “enroll” you in PSLF or IDR are charging for a free form, and the ones promising forgiveness that doesn’t exist are worse. If you want professional help, pay a flat fee to a firm like Student Loan Planner for a plan, not a monthly fee to a “document preparation” company.

Frequently Asked Questions

Am I Eligible For Student Loan Forgiveness?

If you have federal Direct Loans and work for a government agency or 501(c)(3), you’re eligible for PSLF. If you have federal loans and any private-sector job, you’re eligible for IDR forgiveness after 20, 25, or 30 years. Disability, school closure, and fraud have their own discharges. Private loans have none. The table at the top sorts it by situation.

How Long Does Student Loan Forgiveness Take?

PSLF takes 120 qualifying payments, or 10 years. IBR takes 20 or 25 years depending on when you borrowed. RAP takes 30 years. TPD discharge is processed once the Department approves the application; borrowers matched automatically through SSA or VA records are notified and discharged without applying. PSLF buyback and borrower defense claims are the slow ones: buyback requests filed in late 2024 were still pending in August 2026.

What Counts As Public Service For PSLF?

Full-time employment (30 hours or more) with any federal, state, local, or tribal government, or any 501(c)(3) nonprofit. Some non-501(c)(3) nonprofits qualify if they provide specific public services. The PSLF employer search on StudentAid.gov confirms whether yours does.

Can Private Student Loans Be Forgiven?

No federal program forgives them. Death and disability discharge depend on the lender. Refinancing is the main tool for lowering the cost.

Is Student Loan Forgiveness Taxable In 2026?

PSLF, death, and disability discharges are tax-free. IDR forgiveness (IBR, PAYE, ICR, RAP) became taxable again on January 1, 2026. Most career and military repayment programs are taxable. See the tax table.

Does Consolidation Help Or Hurt Forgiveness?

Consolidating FFEL or Perkins loans into a Direct Consolidation Loan makes them eligible for PSLF and IDR. But consolidating after you’ve started counting can reset progress depending on timing, and Parent PLUS consolidations disbursed after June 30, 2026 lost IDR access entirely. Read our consolidation breakdown before you submit the form.

Is There A New Student Loan Forgiveness Program In 2026?

No. The only new program is RAP, which is a repayment plan with 30-year forgiveness, not a cancellation program. Broad forgiveness is not coming.

What Happened To SAVE Borrowers?

SAVE ended by court order in March 2026. Servicers started sending 90-day notices July 1, and borrowers who don’t choose a plan are moved to Standard. Here’s how to pick between RAP and IBR.

Which Repayment Plan Should I Use While Working Toward PSLF?

Whichever gives you the lower payment for the next 120 months. Both IBR and RAP qualify, and your remaining balance is forgiven either way, so the 20-versus-30-year forgiveness difference doesn’t matter for PSLF borrowers. Our RAP vs. IBR comparison shows the crossover income.

Final Thoughts

More than 80 programs, and most borrowers qualify for one. If you work in public service, PSLF is the answer and everything else is noise. If you don’t, your path is IBR or RAP with a tax bill at the end, and the decision is which plan gets you there cheaper. The career, military, and state programs are worth real money for the people they target, and they stack on top of PSLF in most cases.

Start at StudentAid.gov, where every federal program is free to apply for. If your situation has more than one moving part (two borrowers in a household, PSLF plus a career program, a large balance approaching a taxable forgiveness date), a one-time consult with Student Loan Planner or StudentLoanAdvice.com costs less than one wrong plan choice.

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9.3 Million Federal Student Loan Borrowers Are Now In Default, New FSA Data Shows

9.3 Million Federal Student Loan Borrowers Are Now In Default, New FSA Data Shows
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15 Ways To Save An Extra $500 Per Month

15 Ways To Save An Extra $500 Per Month
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How 16 Real People Paid Off Their Student Loan Debt

How 16 Real People Paid Off Their Student Loan Debt

Editor: Clint Proctor

Reviewed by: Colin Graves

The post Student Loan Forgiveness Programs In 2026: Every Way To Qualify appeared first on The College Investor.

Partisan acquires Firebird’s interest in indie pubco OTM Music, merges it with its Left Music publishing arm


OTM Music, the independent publisher founded by Alex Sheridan, has entered into a strategic merger with Partisan Music, the independent music group built around Brooklyn label Partisan Records.

The merger follows Partisan’s acquisition of Firebird’s interest in OTM, a transaction that, according to a press release, makes Partisan the “majority partner” in the publishing business.

OTM will become the primary publishing interest of the Partisan Music group, the two companies said in an announcement on Thursday (September 24).

As part of the merger, OTM will incorporate the team and roster of Left Music, the publishing company Partisan set up with Craig Michie in 2022.

The enlarged operation will have staff in London, Los Angeles, New York, and Paris.

Its combined roster includes Leon Michels, Gianluca Buccellati, Sudan Archives, Tom Brenneck, Andrew Aged, Sub Focus, Elizabeth Fraser, and Metronomy‘s Joseph Mount.

Sheridan continues as Founder and CEO, working alongside Michie, President & Head of North America, and Kate Sweetsur, Head of A&R, on the company’s creative and roster development. Sweetsur joined OTM in 2024.

Partisan‘s sync team will be combined with OTM‘s to service repertoire from across the group.

Michie and Sweetsur previously worked together at BMG Chrysalis and Big Deal Music. Michie, who was an A&R manager at BMG Chrysalis before becoming VP, Creative at Big Deal Music, signed Tame Impala‘s Kevin Parker as a songwriter during his time at BMG Chrysalis.

Sweetsur, who spent nine years at Chrysalis Music before its sale to BMG and later served as co-Head of A&R at BMG Chrysalis, has signed writers including Fraser T Smith, Labrinth, Joy Crookes, Steve Mac, and Wayne Hector.

“Partisan has built an exceptional independent music business and shares our belief in putting creativity and long-term relationships first,” said Alex Sheridan, Founder and CEO of OTM Music. “Craig, Kate and I have worked together at different points throughout our careers, so bringing that experience together again is particularly exciting.

“We have a clear shared vision for the kind of publishing company we want to build and an incredible roster to build it around.”

Alex Sheridan, OTM Music

“We have a clear shared vision for the kind of publishing company we want to build and an incredible roster to build it around. I would like to thank Firebird for their belief in OTM and wish them well for the future. I couldn’t be more thrilled to build the next phase of OTM with such an exciting team, and provide a Boutique at Scale option for our writers, present and future.”

“Our partnership with OTM will allow Partisan to provide high-level creative services for music writers and publishing catalogs at the same caliber as we do for recording artists,” said Zena White, COO of Partisan.

“Our partnership with OTM will allow Partisan to provide high-level creative services for music writers and publishing catalogs at the same caliber as we do for recording artists.”

Zena White, Partisan

“The reuniting of Craig Michie and Kate Sweetsur to lead A&R is an exciting proposition, while Alex and OTM’s track record in sync is undeniable. We can’t wait to be involved in so much more incredible music via the writers across OTM’s roster.”

The companies said the merger arrives at “a time of significant change across the global music publishing market,” pointing to consolidation, new investment, and technology across the sector.

Partisan launched Left Music in March 2022, with Michie as Founder and President, and signed a global administration agreement with Sony Music Publishing UK covering the division’s roster.

At launch, Partisan said Left Music held a catalog of more than 1,500 copyrights, including works by Elizabeth Fraser, Novo Amor, and UNKLE.

Partisan Records was established in 2007 in Brooklyn by Tim Putnam and Ian Wheeler. Its recordings roster includes Cigarettes After Sex, Geese, Cameron Winter, Ezra Collective, IDLES, Blondshell, Interpol, PJ Harvey, and Laura Marling, plus the catalog of Fela Kuti.

In November 2024, the label signed a global distribution deal with Universal Music Group‘s Virgin Music Group.

Firebird, which is exiting its interest in OTM, was founded in 2022 by former Ticketmaster CEO Nathan Hubbard and ex-KKR partner Nat Zilkha, with Raine Group as lead investor.

The company confirmed its investment in OTM – then trading as One Two Many Music – in June 2023, alongside stakes in Mick Management, Ntertain, Defected Records, and Tape Room Music.

Its portfolio spans management, labels, and publishing, and in March 2026 the company acquired a majority stake in Goodlife Management, the home of Fred again.., The Blessed Madonna, and others.

Hubbard told MBW in March that Firebird had deployed over USD $300 million to date, and planned to deploy “upwards of half a billion dollars” in capital into artist partnerships over the following 24 months.

OTM, founded by Sheridan in 2017, has built its business around a curated roster, with a focus on creative services and sync.

The companies said the expanded business will keep that model while adding scale, international reach, and resources to OTM.Music Business Worldwide

Mortgage Rates Now Highest Since Trump Took Office


Just when it appeared that mortgage rates were chipping away, they’re back to new highs.

And not just any old highs, but the highest highs since President Trump took office for his second term.

The bellwether 10-year bond yield surged higher today after a hot inflation report, rising nearly 20 basis points.

At the same time, President Trump ratcheted up his threats against Iran, putting pressure back on oil prices.

The question remains; how high can mortgage rates go?

Mortgage Rates Highest Since January 2025 as Inflation Continues to Run Hot

Just like that, mortgage rates are on the rise again.

What had been a solid week for mortgage rates now appears to be completely erased and then some.

The latest reason why is we got a PMI report for September this morning that showed the economy is still running hot.

It revealed that business activity surged to the fastest pace since 2021, while job growth increased to a four year-high.

When the economy is too hot, inflation becomes a concern. And given inflation has already been top of mind for years now, anything above consensus isn’t good.

Especially when the Fed is already in another hiking cycle, which started with their latest ¼-point hike a week ago.

As such, we’re now looking at the highest rates since January 2025.

That means we’re looking at the highest mortgage rates of Trump’s second term as well.

Not great given the midterms are just a month and change away.

Housing is a top concern for Americans, and if mortgage rates are at new highs around the midterms, sentiment will be very poor.

Politics aside, it’ll just pour even more cold water on the housing market.

Home sales have been at 30-year lows for years now and it looks like 2026 will be no different.

If these high rates continue into 2027, or get worse, we’ll probably see home sales dip even further.

At the same time, mortgage refinance activity will come to a standstill and we’ll have another scenario where mortgage lenders face an existential threat.

[Try out my free mortgage rate calculator to compare rates side by side.]

How High Could Mortgage Rates Go?

Trump highest mortgage rates

As it stands, they’re back to early 2025 levels around 7.25% for a 30-year fixed.

If we continue to get hot economic data that points to worsening inflation, the Fed will need to hike more than expected.

The odds of an October rate hike surged to over 73% today from 55% yesterday, per CME FedWatch.

There are now a possible four rate hikes in the cards by mid-2027, which if they come through, could push mortgage rates higher with them.

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but Fed rate expectations (e.g. a sustained hiking campaign) can lead to higher mortgage rates.

In this case, 30-year fixed mortgage rates would likely front-run the Fed and rise before the additional hikes came through.

The next stop would be around 7.50%, last seen during spring 2024.

Assuming it gets even worse than that, then you’re looking at those 8% mortgage rates we saw back in late 2023, which was the peak this cycle.

Hopefully it doesn’t come to that. But it all depends on the data.

If the inflation data continues to come in hot, mortgage rates will be rising.

The same goes for the Iranian conflict. If that continues to ratchet up or simply not improve, it puts more pressure on energy prices and inflation. Oil prices were falling all week, but reversed course today.

If we can somehow solve one or both of these issues, mortgage rates might avoid this worst-case return to cycle highs.

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

A new framework for monitoring risks in the UK housing market – Bank Underground


Tihana Škrinjarić

In my recent paper, I present a new model that helps assess risks in the UK housing market. Unlike traditional approaches that focus on average house price growth, the model estimates a full range of possible outcomes, allowing policymakers to identify potential risk of big house price drops. The analysis also highlights important regional differences: areas with more constrained housing supply tend to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Expanding supply can help ease price pressures. These insights can help improve the monitoring of housing market vulnerabilities and support financial stability policy.

What I do

Analysing vulnerabilities in the housing market is crucial to track financial stability risks stemming from this part of the economy. These developments are significant for banks, households, and firms, as housing represents a long-term investment. Furthermore, mortgages are one of the largest components of the balance sheets and cash flows of both UK lenders and households. However, forecasting dynamics in the housing market is challenging due to uncertainty around future outcomes. To do so, I collect many possible variables and indicators that could help me to predict house price growth from the perspectives of supply, demand, financial, and non-fundamental factors. I examine around 50 different indicators, which makes it the most comprehensive list in the house price modelling literature.

To gauge risks of big future house price drops, I apply a quantile regression approach (Koenker (2005)), and derive a measure of house-price-at-risk (HPaR) both at the national UK level and regional level. HPaR is a low percentile (I focus on the 5th) of the conditional distribution of future house price growth and therefore captures the severity of potential house price declines under adverse conditions. This approach allows me to examine how different parts of the distribution of house price growth – particularly the lower tail versus the median – are associated with changes in key variables, including:

  • interest rates;
  • income;
  • debt burden dynamics;
  • house price overvaluation, defined as significant increase in real estate prices beyond their intrinsic value, often driven by investor expectations that prices will continue to rise, even when fundamental factors cannot justify such valuations (Stiglitz (1990)). This overvaluation refers to house prices rising above levels that can be explained by economic fundamentals such as income, interest rates, credit conditions and housing supply. It therefore captures the part of house price growth that appears disconnected from these factors and is often associated with speculative expectations;
  • supply constraints; and
  • broader financial conditions.

In this way, the framework highlights that the relationship between these factors and house price growth can differ across normal and adverse states, without imposing a uniform effect across the distribution. The advantage of using quantile regression is that it more clearly captures periods of booms and busts compared to a standard linear regression model.

House price growth decomposition

Chart 1 presents the decomposition of the 5th percentile (I call it tail risk) nominal HPaR  growth.  The tail risk component effectively identifies downturns of early 1980s, 1990s, and dynamics of global financial crisis (GFC).

I observe that these declines were explained by different factors. In the early 1980s, the initial drop in nominal house prices was primarily linked to the oil price shock and a concurrent economic recession, followed by sharp increases in mortgage interest rates. The downturn in the early 1990s coincided with both a weakening economy and a subsequent correction in the housing market. While economic activity had already begun to slow before the housing bubble fully unwound, the decline in house prices likely amplified the recession through its effects on household balance sheets, consumption and credit conditions.

This is reflected by a sharp decline in house price overvaluation and compounded by a significant drop in credit activity and transactions in preceding quarters. During the GFC, transaction volumes explain most of the decline, followed by heightened financial stress and a contraction in credit supply. In the most recent downturn, the decline began with a slowdown in transactions, rising mortgage interest rates, and a drop in house price overvaluation. Both the predicted tail and median nominal house price growth have been trending downward since 2016.


Chart 1: Decomposition of nominal year-on-year (YoY) UK house price growth at the 5th percentile shows different contributions of house-price predictors across time

Note: Const – constant, Demand – includes YoY real GDP growth, Financial – includes YoY mortgage rate change, YoY change of price to income ratio, credit-to-GDP gap, CISS – composite indicator of systemic stress, YoY stock market growth, and YoY inflation; Non fund – house price overvaluation, Other – includes YoY house market transaction growth, CCI – consumer confidence index, and EPU – economic policy uncertainty; Supply – includes YoY housing investment growth, and YoY oil price growth.


Chart 1 also highlights a recurring pattern in which periods of elevated house price overvaluation are followed by subsequent corrections in tail house-price growth. This is consistent with the broader literature on asset-price cycles, which finds that prolonged periods of rapid price appreciation and overvaluation are often followed by market corrections as expectations adjust and prices converge back towards levels justified by fundamentals. In the decomposition, this mechanism is reflected in the non-fundamental component making a positive contribution during boom periods and a negative contribution during subsequent downturns. While house price overvaluation is not the sole driver of housing downturns, the results suggest that the unwinding of previous overvaluation amplified several of the observed declines in UK house prices.

Forward-looking measures of house price vulnerability

I calculate several forward-looking risk measures based on the estimated distributions for the one-year ahead model: distance to tail (measured as the difference between the median and tail risk forecasts), and the probability of negative growth – presented in Chart 2.

Distance to tail (left panel) measures the gap between the median and lower-tail forecasts. Larger values indicate a wider dispersion between central and adverse house price outcomes and are therefore often interpreted as a sign of increased vulnerability.

A notable spike in uncertainty is observed during the Covid-19 shock, though it dissipates quickly, as expected. The model is also successful in predicting such periods when house prices would drop significantly (right panel), as indicated by spikes of the forecasted probability series that preceded actual house price drops (grey shaded area).


Chart 2: Distance to tail and its decomposition (left), and probability of negative house price growth (right), one-year ahead

Notes: Left panel shows the difference between the median and tail growth (DTT = distance to tail). Right panel shows estimated probability of house price growth dropping below 0%. Grey shaded area denote periods when observed house price growth dropped below 0%. Estimates at a certain quarter of a year are based on information from the same quarter in the previous year.


What does regional analysis uncover?

Regional housing market vulnerabilities matter for financial stability because risks can build unevenly across the country and may not be fully captured by national indicators. The regional analysis shows that UK housing market vulnerabilities differ substantially across regions, highlighting the value of estimating separate HPaR models rather than relying solely on national results.

A key finding is that demand-related variables exhibit markedly different associations across regions. Income growth is most strongly associated with future house price growth in London, the South East, South West and East Anglia, suggesting that these regions are more sensitive to demand conditions than other parts of the UK (Chart 3, blue bars).


Chart 3: Differences between estimation results between regions

Notes: Bars denote the values of estimated parameters for selected variables, and lightly shaded blue, green, and orange bars denote statistically insignificant values.


Estimates of the relationship between mortgage rate changes and future house price growth vary considerably across the country. Supply-constrained regions, particularly southern and midland regions of the UK, display larger and faster coefficient of mortgage rate changes in the HPaR specification (Chart 3, orange bars). As a result, higher mortgage rates are associated with more pronounced risk of big house price drops in these areas.

On the supply side, greater housing supply is generally associated with lower future house price pressures in most regions (Chart 3, green bars). However, London, the South East and Scotland are exceptions. For the first two, the results align with the findings of Zahirovic-Herbert and Gibler (2014), who argue that in large, built-up metropolitan areas, new supply can lead to higher house prices. This is due to elevated land costs, stringent development constraints, and the potential need for brownfield remediation. Scotland has its own housing regulations and broader housing policy framework, which differ from those in England and Wales (Gibb (2019)).

This suggests that regional monitoring can provide valuable information for financial stability surveillance and policy assessment.

Key takeaways

While national estimates provide useful signals of housing market risk, regional results reveal some heterogeneity across regions. The associations between house prices and factors such as GDP growth, credit conditions and mortgage rates vary considerably across the UK, suggesting that both national and regional perspectives are useful for monitoring vulnerabilities. Stronger economic activity and housing supply are generally associated with lower downside risks, while higher mortgage rates and stronger credit growth are associated with greater risks of large house price falls.

Several limitations remain. Regional data availability is restricted, particularly for macrofinancial indicators, and the model is designed to identify predictive relationships rather than causal effects. Future research could incorporate richer regional data sets, explore housing market spillovers in greater detail, and investigate regional convergence clubs to better capture common housing market dynamics.


Tihana Škrinjarić works in the Bank’s Stress Testing and Resilience Division.

If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.

Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.

[LA, NY, SC, TX, TN, AR, MS, AL, GA, FL, NC & VA] First Horizon Bank $450 Checking + $250 Bonus


Update 9/23/26: Can now fund up to $2,000 for savings & $2,000 for checking. Hat tip to reader wht4e3v3r

Update 8/4/26: Offer is back until 9/25. Anti churn language is now 24 months (was 18). Savings bonus now requires $3,000 (was $5,000). 

Update 4/7/26: Bonus is back until 06/30/2026. Seems like KY is no longer eligible as there is no First Horizon banking center location there and terms specify that now. We have updated the fine print and tried to update all of the other terms as this is a popular major bonus. If you see anything that isn’t accurate let us know in the comments below. Another big change is that you can’t have had an account in the last 18 months, savings bonus now requires $5,000 instead of $3,000. 

Offer at a glance

  • Maximum bonus amount: $700
  • Availability: Offer is only available to residents of LA, NY (NYC zips don’t seem to work), SC, TX, TN, AR, MS, AL, GA, KY, FL, NC and parts of VA (Bristol, Gate City, Weber City). Need to live within 50 miles of branch. You must be at least 18 years old and a US citizen to apply online
  • Direct deposit required: Yes, $2,000+
  • Additional requirements: See below
  • Hard/soft pull: Soft pull
  • ChexSystems: Unknown, sensitive
  • Credit card funding: Increased to $2,000 for checking & $2,000 for savings.
  • Monthly fees: None
  • Early account termination fee: Six months, bonus forfeit None
  • Household limit: None
  • Expiration date: 3/31/24 06/30/2026

The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • First Horizon Bank is offering a $450 bonus when you open a new checking account and complete the following requirements:
    • Make qualifying direct deposits totaling $2000 within the first 90 days
  • Get a $250 bonus when you open a Traditional Savings account with a total deposit of $3,000 or more in new money within 30 days of account opening and maintain that for 90 days

 

The Fine Print

Avoiding Fees

Monthly Fees

FirstView checking account has no monthly fees to worry about. You do need to opt in to paperless statements otherwise you’ll be charged a $2 monthly fee.

Early Account Termination Fee

Account must be kept open for six months otherwise the bonus will be forfeit This account no longer has any ETF.

Our Verdict

Better than the $400 checking bonus. Based on previous times they have offered this promotion entering your details to be e-mailed a promo code is enough to satisfy the ‘[i]t is non-transferable and may not be combined with other offers’ language. We will add this to our list of the best bank account bonuses. 

Hat tip to reader Bockrr

Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:

Post history:

  • Update 4/4/24: Deal is back until April 30, 2024.
  • Note: Terms state ‘Offer is only available to the addressee of the offer, is non-transferable, may not be combined with other offers’. But this shows up in a google search and you also have to request a code by filling in your information so should be able to get this bonus even if not targeted but YMMV.

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