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Everyone’s Arguing About AGI Taking Over — Here’s What Matters


Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

Key Takeaways

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declared that “AGI has arrived” after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch, but OpenAI itself never made that claim, and researchers call the term “jagged” rather than general.
  • Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 post near identical scores on several benchmarks, yet produce noticeably different real world output. The gap traces back to the “harness” wrapped around the model, not the model itself.
  • SpaceX’s $60 billion acquisition of Cursor shows where the real competitive fight is moving. It’s not the raw model anymore. It’s who controls the layer around it.

AGI, artificial general intelligence, means a system that can match or beat human performance across essentially any cognitive task, not just the narrow ones it was trained for. That distinction matters because it’s exactly what’s being argued about right now.

Jensen Huang has a habit of declaring victory at the exact moment his company needs the market to believe it. So when OpenAI shipped GPT-6 Astra on Sept. 3, Huang posted on X that “AGI has arrived,” adding that “400K GPUs” are “coming online next.”

I’m an AI engineer, and I’m currently building ChatMakr, an AI-powered platform that creates multi-agent chatbots in seconds. I spent the last year watching every model release get relabeled as the one that finally changes everything. Here is the truth.

What Astra actually does

Astra isn’t a chatbot upgrade. OpenAI positions it as an operator — a system that browses, codes, runs multi-step workflows, models in Blender and handles cybersecurity tasks with minimal supervision. The benchmark numbers are genuinely striking: 97.6% on FrontierMath Tier 4, 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3, and a perfect 100% on ExploitBench, up from 78.5% for its predecessor, GPT-5.6 Sol. Those are not incremental gains.

But OpenAI itself, notably, stopped short of calling Astra AGI, choosing instead to emphasize “speed and versatility.” That restraint from the company that built the model is the tell.

Why people aren’t convinced

The pushback isn’t really about whether Astra is impressive. It clearly is. It’s about the word AGI itself. Wharton professor Ethan Mollick has argued for months that what we’re seeing is “jagged AGI:” systems that are superhuman in some narrow domains and unreliable in others, which is a very different thing from general intelligence.

There’s still no agreed upon test for AGI, so declaring it “arrived” is closer to a subjective judgment call than a measurement. Augmented Mind and Manolo Remiddi put it plainly: “AGI is the point where you can trust the output without checking. We are not there.”

The Fable 5.1 comparison and why scores lie

This is where it gets interesting for anyone actually building with these models. On paper, Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 look neck and neck on several coding and reasoning benchmarks. In practice, engineers report meaningfully different output quality. Fable tends to produce more production-ready code with fewer output tokens, while Astra’s strength shows up more in computer use and multi-step automation. Snorkel AI’s testing revealed that Fable fails through a fundamentally different pattern than how it succeeds, losing valid work mid-trajectory rather than running out of budget, which matters far more to a shipping team than a leaderboard percentage.

The reason similar scores can hide such different outputs comes down to something most people outside AI engineering have never heard of: the harness.

What a “harness” actually is

A harness is the infrastructure wrapped around a model: the prompt assembly, tool access, memory management and error recovery that determine how the raw model is actually put to work. As MindStudio describes it: “A model is the engine. The harness is the car. Most benchmarks test the car.” Swap the harness and the same model produces wildly different results. Cursor’s own research found one model scoring 46% accuracy with one harness and 80% with another, with no model change at all.

Astra’s own benchmark history makes the point better than any explainer could. On ARC-AGI-3, Astra scored 62.7% using a standard harness, essentially tied with its predecessor, and 99.9% using a “Provider Adapter” harness that let it retain and reuse prior reasoning instead of restarting cold on every step, according to Augmented Mind and Manolo Remiddi. Same weights. Same model. A 37 point swing from infrastructure alone. That’s not a small footnote. It means a huge share of what gets reported as “model improvement” is actually harness improvement, and leaderboards that don’t control for it are telling a story, not reporting a fact.

Why Cursor just became the most important acquisition of the year

This is exactly why SpaceX’s $60 billion acquisition of Cursor matters more than it looks. Cursor isn’t a model company. It’s one of the best harness companies in the world, the layer that decides how coding models actually get used. Folding it into SpaceX’s GPU fleet is a bet that owning the layer is as valuable as owning the model, maybe more. OpenAI has already cut Cursor’s access to its models over trust concerns tied to Musk’s companies, which tells you the model providers see the same thing: Whoever controls the harness controls the product experience, regardless of which model sits underneath it.

The bottom line

Nobody serious disputes that GPT-6 Astra is a major model. What’s contested is the leap from “major model” to “AGI has arrived.” If you’re evaluating these systems for your own business, ignore the AGI framing entirely. Look at the harness a vendor wraps around the model, ask how it fails, and test it on your actual workflow. The benchmark gap between Astra and Fable 5.1 already proved the leaderboard alone won’t tell you.

Key Takeaways

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declared that “AGI has arrived” after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch, but OpenAI itself never made that claim, and researchers call the term “jagged” rather than general.
  • Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 post near identical scores on several benchmarks, yet produce noticeably different real world output. The gap traces back to the “harness” wrapped around the model, not the model itself.
  • SpaceX’s $60 billion acquisition of Cursor shows where the real competitive fight is moving. It’s not the raw model anymore. It’s who controls the layer around it.

AGI, artificial general intelligence, means a system that can match or beat human performance across essentially any cognitive task, not just the narrow ones it was trained for. That distinction matters because it’s exactly what’s being argued about right now.

Jensen Huang has a habit of declaring victory at the exact moment his company needs the market to believe it. So when OpenAI shipped GPT-6 Astra on Sept. 3, Huang posted on X that “AGI has arrived,” adding that “400K GPUs” are “coming online next.”

I’m an AI engineer, and I’m currently building ChatMakr, an AI-powered platform that creates multi-agent chatbots in seconds. I spent the last year watching every model release get relabeled as the one that finally changes everything. Here is the truth.

Schwab $250-$1,000 Checking Bonus – Doctor Of Credit


Offer at a glance

  • Maximum bonus amount: $1,000
  • Availability: Nationwide
  •  Direct deposit required: None
  • Additional requirements: Deposit $25,000-$100,000
  • Hard/soft pull: Soft
  • ChexSystems: Yes
  • Credit card funding: None
  • Monthly fees: None
  • Early account termination fee: None mentioned
  • Household limit: None listed
  • Expiration date: November 10, 2026

The Offer

Direct link to offer 

  • Schwab is offering a bonus of up to $1,000 to new customers of their Investor checking account: 
    • Deposit $25,000 – $49,999  and earn a cash bonus of $250.
    • Deposit $50,000 – $99,999  and earn a cash bonus of $500.
    • Deposit $100,000 or more and earn a cash bonus of $1,000.

Some additional details:

  • Offer valid from October 20, 2026 through November 10, 2026.
  • You must also have a Schwab brokerage account to be eligible for this offer. 
  • This bonus is only for new checking customers.
  • The offer is for both new and existing brokerage customers.
  • Account funding must be completed by November 10, 2026.
  • Funds must remain in the Schwab checking account through December 25, 2026.

The Fine Print

  • Offer valid for the promotional period from October 20, 2026 through and including November 10, 2026.
  • Offer not valid for clients with an existing Investor Checking account.
  • New-to-Schwab clients must open a Schwab One brokerage account with a linked Investor Checking account and deposit qualifying net “new-to-Schwab” funds into the Investor Checking account.
  • Existing Schwab One brokerage account clients who do not have an Investor Checking account, must open a new linked Investor Checking account and deposit qualifying net “new-to-Schwab” funds into the Investor Checking account. Offer available to all eligible Schwab One account registrations, including Individual, Joint Tenants, Tenants in Common, Community Property, and Trust. All account owners must be U.S. citizens or U.S. resident aliens, reside in the U.S., and have a U.S. mailing address, excluding U.S. territories.
  • Eligible clients must open and fund an Investor Checking account by November 10, 2026 with net “new-to-Schwab” funds and maintain the qualifying net new balances through December 25, 2026.
  • Qualifying net “new-to-Schwab” funds means assets not currently held at Charles Schwab Corporation and/or any of its affiliates and transferred from an external financial institution. Existing Schwab assets, transfers between Schwab accounts, and funds currently held in any Schwab account do not qualify toward the funding requirement. Qualifying deposits may be made through one or more transactions. Only qualifying net “new-to-Schwab” funds received during the promotion period will count toward the funding requirements. Qualifying net “new-to-Schwab” deposits must be posted to the Investor Checking account by November 10, 2026.
  • Maintain the qualifying net “new-to-Schwab” balance every day from November 10, 2026 through and including December 25, 2026 in the Investor Checking account to remain eligible for the bonus. Withdrawals or transfers that cause the net “new-to-Schwab” balances to fall into a lower balance tier for even one day during this timeframe will change your maximum bonus. For example, if the net “new-to-Schwab” balance is $100,000 on November 11, the maximum bonus you could earn is $1,000. If the net “new-to-Schwab” balance is $75,000 on December 1, however the maximum bonus you can earn changes to $500.
  • If all offer requirements are met, the cash bonus will be deposited into the Investor Checking Account within one to two statement cycles. The Investor Checking account must remain open and in good standing at the time the bonus is credited. Note: An account in good standing must not be restricted nor carry a negative balance. Limit one cash bonus per client, regardless of the number of eligible Investor Checking accounts opened. The primary owner of the Investor Checking account is the individual qualifying for and receiving the bonus. Offer and account opening subject to bank approval.
  • Charles Schwab Bank may issue an IRS Form 1099 to you that reflects the value of such bonus. Please consult your tax advisor about the appropriate tax treatment for this offer and any tax implications associated with receipt before applying.

Avoiding Fees

The checking account and brokerage account both have no fees to worry about. And no early termination fee is mentioned either.

Our Verdict

The bonus itself is good. Biggest thing to keep in mind is that the money needs to sit in the Schwab checking account which basically earns zero interest (.01%). Here is some math:

  • Assuming the funds are tied up for 60 days, it’s around 6.25% APY return which is better than the regular rates out there, but only by a couple extra percent.
  • If the funds are tied up for 50 days, the yield ends up around 7.5% APY. (Technically, you can wire the funds in on November 10th and wire out after the weekend on December 28th. The wiring out is feasible, but I’d recommend wiring earlier in case there is some issue with the transfer going through.)

Historically, we haven’t seen much in the way of checking bonuses from Schwab. The Schwab checking account gets a lot of attention for their full ATM reimbursements, even international ATM withdrawals.

Overall, I’d say the bonus isn’t a home run, but something to consider, especially if you would want to keep the Schwab checking account open long term for the ATM benefit. We’ll add this to our list of Best Bank Bonuses. 

There’s also a separate, non-stackable, brokerage bonus from Schwab of up to $1,000.

Thanks to all those who sent this in

Day 47: Choosing The Right Crypto Broker Matters 📊



Day 47: Choosing The Right Crypto Broker Matters 📊

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Building a 6-Property Portfolio While Working a W-2 and Raising 6 Kids


Ever made a money decision you’d give anything to redo? You can’t rewind the clock, but you can try again, even with a full-time job and a full house!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! At 18, Josh Yeatts turned down his family’s nearly paid-off mobile home park. Years later, after accidentally becoming a landlord, he sold that rental out of frustration. Looking back, Josh realized he was missing out on family time and wanted more freedom, and real estate investing seemed to unlock that! He and his wife agreed to run it like a business, and built a six-property portfolio, all while working a W-2 job, serving as a pastor, and raising six kids!

Josh shares how he scraped together the down payment on his first rental property with a tax refund and home equity, the importance of building relationships with your agent, lenders, and vendors, and covers the reason he skipped his inspection (and why you shouldn’t!). He walks us through his first BRRRR, how he finds contractors he can trust, and the multigenerational housing plan that converted three family homes into rentals that more than cover his new mortgage!

If you’ve ever wondered whether it’s too late to start (or start over), this episode is your sign!

Ashley Kehr:
At 18, Josh Yates’ parents offered him their nearly paid off mobile home park. He said no and now calls it the worst financial decision he ever made. And years later, he accidentally became a landlord, sold that rental out of frustration and had to decide whether real estate still belonged in his family’s future.

Tony Robinson:
Josh eventually restarted more intentionally with a $65,000 two bedroom house and built a six property portfolio while raising six children, serving as a pastor and working a W-2 job. And today we’re breaking down the tax refund and the home equity that funded his first purchase, the DIY rehab that consumed every evening, the buy box he discovered along the way, and the multi-generational housing plan that turned three family homes into rentals covering his new mortgage.

Ashley Kehr:
This is the Real Estate Rookie Podcast. I’m Ashley Kerr.

Tony Robinson:
And I’m Tony J. Robinson. And with that, let’s give a big warm welcome to Josh. Josh, thanks for joining us today, brother.

Josh Yeatts:
Hey, glad to be here.

Ashley Kehr:
Well, Josh, your family owned a mobile home park and at the age of 18, they actually offered it to you and it was almost nearly paid off. Why did you decide to reject it and what do you understand about that opportunity now that you could not see them?

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. So when they offered it to me, they were looking to retire, to not have the park anymore, and they offered it to me. And at the time I had so many other things that I kind of wanted to do with my life. And I had been around it my whole life. I had helped out with mowing the grass and helping with different projects and things. And I was just so tired of it and didn’t want it anymore. And I said, “No, I don’t want that stupid mobile home park,” is probably the words I use. And I could kick myself now, of course, because I realize the value in it now that it could have been basically the only job that I had would’ve been to manage this mobile home park more or less for them. I could have just paid them a little bit of money each month or whatever, and I could have enjoyed time with my family.
But at 18, you know what you know and you don’t know what you don’t know.

Ashley Kehr:
Josh, do you know offhand how much you would’ve made a month off of that property? What was the cash flow off the mobile home park that you would’ve been able to live off of?

Josh Yeatts:
Well, I do know that each mobile home rented for… They actually did it by the week. They rented it by the week and most of them were like 200 to 250 a week. So approximately about 800 a month per unit and it was 16 mobile homes. I have done the math before, but I don’t know the exact number, but it would’ve been enough to live off of.

Tony Robinson:
Now you eventually did end up buying your first rental, it was just a few years later at the age of 21, where you bought it as your first home and then you turned it into a rental for some friends from church. Can you walk us through, Josh, what happened in those three years to take you from, I don’t want this free investment to actually turning a property that you bought into an actual investment?

Josh Yeatts:
I bought my first house. I never wanted to rent from anybody. I wanted to own and that was kind of instilled in me. So at 21, instead of going to find a rental house or something to rent, an apartment, I said, “Let me just go and see if I can buy my own home.” I did. I paid $35,000 for this little two bedroom, one bath home, and I put a little bit of work into it, just paint and countertops and cabinets and stuff. And my dad had some health issues that we ended up having to move in with my dad to help him. And some friends from church were like, “Hey, what are you going to do with that house? We need a place to rent.” And I was like, “I don’t know. I guess I could rent it to you guys being that we know you.” And I believe they paid me like 400 or 450 a month and I just started renting it to them.
And from there, after they moved out, I was like, “Well, I guess I’ll rent it to somebody else.”

Ashley Kehr:
And how did that go? Because you eventually sold that property because you were frustrated with it. What happened and do you regret it now?

Josh Yeatts:
I absolutely regret it. I wish I could go back and not sell that house. The reason I got frustrated, my wife, she never really wanted to be in the real estate investing world. And because I would let people kind of walk all over me, I wouldn’t maybe speak up when I needed to. Lots of times that caused friction and she would always say, “Well, what if you just sold it? What if you just sold it?” And we ended up selling it and walking away from it for a few years and I missed it. After I sold it, I missed it. And I always wished that I’d have just kept it.

Tony Robinson:
Now, several years later, Josh, you ended up telling your wife that maybe you want to get back into real estate investing, right? Hey, can we leverage this as a tool to maybe someday replace the income from your day job and allow you to spend more time with your growing family? What did your finances and schedule look like when you started having that conversation? And ultimately, what convinces you of you guys to give this whole real estate investing thing another shot?

Josh Yeatts:
We started talking about it back around 2021 when I talked to her and I said, look, I would like to buy some rentals and I think it’ll be a lot easier buying a house that is strictly a rental, that’s not a house that we… Because the first house, I bought it and we renovated it together. It was where we lived. It was our house as opposed to a house that I was buying as a rental house that didn’t maybe have that sentimental connection that the first house had. And I told her, I said, “I really believe that if we give this a go, if we buy some more rental houses and we actually run it as a business, not just having people that we know maybe rent from us and feeling bad and saying, well, okay, you can pay the rent a few weeks later or whatever, but actually run it as a business, I really believe that this would be something that I can eventually walk away from my W2 job, spend more time with the family.” And I feel like once she kind of saw that picture of what it could look like, she was on board.

Tony Robinson:
Josh, just out of curiosity, I know you talked her through it, but what was it, if you remember, that really finally made it click for her? Was it just laying out the numbers in that way and the vision or was there maybe a specific thing you can share with the Ricky audience who also wants to get their spouse on board that they can replicate to get that alignment?

Josh Yeatts:
In talking with her, like I said, I told her that I want to be there with my family. I don’t want to miss the kids’ games and different things that I would miss with my W2 job. I want to be able to take vacations and not have to worry about calling into work or I want to be able to have this freedom. And as we began to talk about it, and it took some time, it wasn’t just talking about it for a night and she was on board. It took time. But I think the main piece was once I told her, “Look, we’re going to run this as a business. It’s not going to be like it was with the previous home. It’s going to be a business and we’re going to run it as such.” That was kind of the turning piece for her.

Ashley Kehr:
Now, Josh, what market did you end up deciding on to make this purchase in?

Josh Yeatts:
I wanted it to be, especially for my first few rentals, and so far it’s been all my whole portfolio that I have now. I wanted it to be in my own backyard. I wanted it to be where I could lay hands on it. If something broke, I have a little bit of experience with growing up with my family. I can do a few things on my own and I wanted to be able to fix some things that I could fix personally. So I went ahead and really looked in my own backyard. And at the time we lived in an area called Chatham and the house that we first purchased as a rental was just a few minutes away from us. Now it’s about 30 minutes away from us since we moved, but it was very close to where we lived.

Ashley Kehr:
Now, after you decided on your market, how did you actually find your first deal?

Josh Yeatts:
I actually, I went on Zillow and they asked you, “Do you want to find an agent?” And I was like, “Yeah, I want to find a real estate agent.” And I clicked on the link or whatever. And the person that ended up talking to is a very good friend of mine now. And we actually are doing a deal together now that we’ve had this time to… As my real estate agent, he’s brought me a lot of deals and we’ve did a lot of work together. But when I called this gentleman up and we talked, he said, “I’m going to help you find something that will not only be in the price range that you want, but he had an eye for being able to look at a house and say, looking under the house and seeing his floor joists didn’t look right or he would actually steer me toward or away from certain deals that he felt like would be the best fit for a rental.

Speaker 4:
If you’re building a real estate portfolio, your banking setup matters more than you think because the more properties you add to your portfolio, the more complicated managing the money can get. I own and manage dozens of properties and there’s money constantly moving, rents and payouts coming in, mortgages, repairs and expenses going out. With traditional banking, you’re left figuring out what belongs to which property and spending hours updating spreadsheets just to understand your cash flow. That’s why I use Baseline. It’s BiggerPocket’s official banking platform specifically built for real estate investors and operators. I can organize my banking by property or entity with bookkeeping built right into it. So the bookkeeping happens as I bank and transactions are automatically categorized so I’m not spending hours at the end of the month trying to piece everything together. I can see what’s coming in, what’s going out and how each property is actually performing.
So as your portfolio grows, your banking and bookkeeping can actually keep up with you. Open your account with Baseline at baseline.com/bp.

Tony Robinson:
I think that’s a benefit too, Josh, of having a good partner in that way because there are a lot of agents who aren’t investors in any way, shape or form. And they’re really good at the transactional side of being an agent, but less so about the business side behind the real estate. When you can find what we call the investor friendly agent and it can make that first deal a lot easier. And by the way, for all the rookies, if you guys don’t know, BP offers an agent finder tools. If you go to biggerpockets.com/agentfinder, you guys will find that for yourself. But you work with this agent, you end up finding a good deal. Walk us through the numbers in that first one, Josh. What was the price, how much you put down, and really where’d the funds come from for that down payment as well?

Josh Yeatts:
Very interesting story because when you’re first starting out, for me, I was just trying to find the money to put down and the closing cost. I knew how much I had or that I could draw from and ended up doing a HELOC home equity line of credit to help pull the money for the down payment. And I also, it was around tax time and I said, “I’m going to take the tax money, my tax refund.” And a lot of people, I think they just don’t think about. You can take your tax refund and rather than blowing it on stupid things, you can invest it. And so I took my HELOC along with my tax refund and scraped up enough to put the money down. I paid 69,000 was the purchase price for this home. And right there at that 70,000 mark and ended up putting down with the closing costs, it was a little over $20,000.

Ashley Kehr:
Now walk us through that acquisition. Was there anything that came up maybe during the inspection of the property? Did you do an inspection? How did that loan process work for you? Kind of get us to the actual closing day of the property.

Josh Yeatts:
I did not do an inspection. There again, I kind of put my life in the hands of this agent who I probably should have maybe not been as trusting, but it did work out for the good. But I took his word. He said, “This looks like a good one, man.” He said, “I would buy this one if I was able to.” And he kind of had looked over it and at the end of the day, it had a lot of the pieces that were there already were good. The roof looked great. The plumbing looked great. The HVAC was, it was a little bit older, but it still looked good. And so I waived the inspection. Not a great idea, but I waived the inspection. And going up to the close date, like I said, I had that HELOC and the tax refund and he kind of helped walk me through a lot of it.
I also found a great lender who I have now developed a great relationship with, can call personally and talk to him about different deals that I’m looking at. And so relationships are so important. That’s, in my opinion, the most important thing, the most important tool that you can have is those relationships.

Tony Robinson:
Now, Josh, you got into this because you wanted the additional cash flow to be able to spend more time with your family. This first true, true investment, ballpark, what’s it doing right now for you in terms of cash flow?

Josh Yeatts:
Well, for this one now, I started off, the payment was around, I think it was around 500 a month and I started off charging 850 a month. I now charge 1150 a month. So the rent has gone up and I’ve had, this is the third tenant that is in this house. So 1150 a month now.

Ashley Kehr:
And what is the timeframe? How long from that 850 to 1150 since you purchased it?

Josh Yeatts:
Each tenant has been there about a year, maybe a little more than a year and purchased it around four years ago. Yeah.

Ashley Kehr:
So not bad to see that increase over those four years from 850 to 1150. Is there a reason that the rents increased by that much in your market?

Josh Yeatts:
Well, so we do have a casino that has opened up in Danville, but the big piece has been that casino coming and just making all the rents go up.

Tony Robinson:
I think that’s the beauty of buying real estate is sometimes even when we underwrite, good things still happen that we couldn’t have anticipated, right? And that rent increase is pretty solid. So it sounds like, Josh, the first deal served you guys pretty well, right? And that kind of sets you guys up for your second intentional real estate purchase. And I know you deliberately looked for another two bedroom, one bath, one that needed some light work that could support maybe like a burr, we’re doing like a cash out refinance. As you started thinking about property number two, did your process change in how you were screening properties given you wanted to execute a burr?

Josh Yeatts:
A little bit. I still kind of was looking for that around $70,000 home because I knew that I could put the 20% down. And the only difference is I knew that I was going to have to do some renovations. And the way that I kind of anticipated the renovations was I said, “I’m going to use a credit card for the renovations.” And I knew it was work that I could do, very simple things, paint, flooring. I refinished all the hardwood floors in the home. And again, it was one that my realtor was very confident with the comps around the area, with the renovations. He knew that I could anticipate being able to pull enough out at least to do another home. And so I looked for that 70-ish thousand. I think I paid 75,000 for the second property. And just as soon as I got it, I started working on it and had some long nights renovating it, but got it done within about a month and got it on the market.

Ashley Kehr:
Now with that second property, give us the full numbers on that one. You said the purchase price was around 70,000. What did you do for a down payment, closing costs, and then did you have a renovation budget at the time?

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. As far as the down payment and closing costs, by this time, I was starting to save up some money. I actually cashed out my 401 at work. I’ve done some pretty crazy things to be able to get the down payment.

Ashley Kehr:
Did you take the tax hit and the penalty hit on it?

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. Yeah. But to me, it’s worth it.

Ashley Kehr:
Oh yeah. If you can make more money than your return you were getting in the 401 and to cover the taxes and penalties, it’s way worth it.

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. So I cashed that out. I had saved up a little bit and I believe it was right around tax time again that I just said, “Hey, let’s put the tax money with what I’ve got and with the 401 and let’s go ahead and buy this one.” And then like I said, I used the credit card and it took about $13,000. I kind of had anticipated about 10,000, went a little bit over that. Like I said, it was mainly just paint, flooring, some of those things, but I kind of anticipated 10,000 and did all the work myself. And when I did the refinance, I believe it appraised for, it was a little bit less than what I thought it was going to appraise for. I believe it appraised for like 120. And so I was able to pull out, I believe it was about 20,000, give or take, out of it for the next deal.

Tony Robinson:
Josh, you’ve used, as you said, a combination of different sources to fund your deals, tax refunds, HELOC, cashing out your 401k, obviously leveraging the cash out refinance. As you think about maybe rules around leveraging that money and really just making sure you’re accounting for the repayment, because a lot of those have your HELOC has a payment, your cash out refinance, the mortgage goes up. How do you account for those repayments so that recycling your equity doesn’t put your home or your portfolio at risk?

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. So I actually, one of my saving graces, because I’m not saying this is the best idea for everybody to do, but with the sale of my home that I had the HELOC on, I knew I was going to cash flow with paying the mortgage and the HELOC each month. But once I sold that home, of course, from the sale of that home, I had to pay that HELOC off. And so I kind of anticipated with selling the home that it was going to come a time where I was going to have to pay that HELOC back, which in turn, because I didn’t have the HELOC anymore, I was able to cash flow more. But yeah, it was, like I said, maybe not the best idea, but it was when you’re hustling and you’re trying to make it work, which you feel like you got to do at the time.
But I would highly encourage people when they get their tax return, even if you don’t use it right then, save it and put that toward an investment property because I mean, rather than spend it on something dumb, spend it on investment.

Ashley Kehr:
Or even a bonus at your work. If you’re getting a bonus above and beyond what your standard pay is, start saving those too. But Josh, another thing I want to touch on is you actually did a lot of the rehab yourself on a couple of these first properties, but now you rely on contractors for almost everything beyond a couple small repairs. How did you build these vendors in your network and how do you vet them, compare bids, define your scope, confirm that they actually do quality work? I guess, what’s your best rookie advice for finding and vetting contractors?

Josh Yeatts:
Just so happened, two of the contractors that I use for, I’d say 99% of my work, just so happened to… One of them, my daughter dances with his daughter and my daughter and his daughter started hanging out. Actually, both of the contractors, their daughters dance with my daughter. And as we just –

Ashley Kehr:
Tony, you’re missing out. He’s got daughters in dance and he’s not finding any contractors.

Tony Robinson:
I found zero contractors. Yeah. I got to change their vet studios.

Josh Yeatts:
But yeah, my kids started hanging out with their kids and we would, of course, I’m not going to let my kids hang out with anybody. I don’t know the parents. And so I get to talking to the parents and they say, “Well, I’m a contractor. I own a contracting business.” And I’m like, “Really? I might use your help.” And as far as kind of vetting their work, it really come down to giving maybe a smaller job or whatever saying, “Hey, can you come and do this job?” And seeing what that looked like. If they did a good job with that job, then I would hire them again for the next job, maybe a bigger job.

Ashley Kehr:
Now, Josh, continuing on in your journey, a larger house actually across the street came up for sale and you initially believed it was unaffordable, but how did your wife connect the house’s basement in an additional wing with your parents and grandparents’ housing needs to actually make this a workable plan for you guys?

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. So a lot of people probably think we’re crazy.

Ashley Kehr:
Yeah. I think you’re coming up with your own family compound here we’re about to hear about.

Josh Yeatts:
Yeah. So my grandparents, of course, this is the same parents and grandparents that had sold the mobile home park years ago and purchased two homes in cash, no mortgage on these two homes. And my grandparents are in their late 80s. My grandpa will be 89 this year. And they had told me, they said, “Josh, we just need something that is no maintenance. As we get older, we don’t want to have to worry about mowing grass or if something breaks, having to try and fix it.” And so they were talking to me and they were like, “Maybe we could give you our house, put it in your name, and then we could rent something and you just pay us the money for the rent.” And when this house came available across the street from where we lived, I told my wife, I said, “Let’s go look at it.
It can’t hurt to look.” And the purchase price on this house, they wanted 430,000 for this home, but it was humongous. It was way too big for us, but it was such a beautiful home. And my wife said, “What if we turned the basement into an apartment for your grandparents? Then they wouldn’t have to worry about maintenance. They wouldn’t have to rent somewhere. They would have a nice place to live that we are right there just on the second level and we can move them in.” So we started thinking through that. One of the contractors, one of my friends, he did all the work and it turned out just amazing. And we took their house and rented it out. But before that, my parents said, “You’re not going to move them in and not move us in.” And so like you said, the house has a second wing off the back that had a bedroom.
It’s a shared laundry, but a bedroom, laundry, and a full bathroom and a sunroom. And so we decided you guys can move in here, move into this room. And what we’ll do is we’ll take both of your homes and the home that we lived in across the street, rent these out. And it ended up more than paying for the mortgage each month.

Ashley Kehr:
Well, Josh, that’s incredible. Tony lives a couple houses down from his sister-in-law. I live a couple houses down from my sister, but I think we need to take it to this next step where we’re actually building a compound within one home. But Josh, that’s incredible that you’ve been able to help your family out with this situation and be able to live close together and make it work for everybody. We really enjoyed having you on the podcast today and sharing your journey and your story with us, but where can people reach out to you and find out what else you are doing in real estate?

Josh Yeatts:
Well, so I have on my Facebook, it’s just Josh Yates, but I also have a little YouTube channel that I kind of do some tips and things that I’ve acquired along the way. And so that’s Next Gen Wealth with Josh. People can get on there and follow me on there. I share some of my journey with these different projects and houses that I’ve acquired.

Ashley Kehr:
Oh, great. We’ll have to check that out. So if you’re listening to this episode of Real Estate Rookie, make sure you check out Josh’s channel and also check out Real Estate Rookie on YouTube. I’m Ashley, he’s Tony, and we’ll see you guys on the next episode.

 

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Boston Beer (SAM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript


Image source: The Motley Fool.

DATE

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary – Michael G. Andrews
  • Chief Executive Officer, brewer, and founder – C. James Koch
  • Interim Chief Financial Officer – Matthew Donal Murphy

TAKEAWAYS

  • Net Revenue — $520.1 million in the third quarter, representing a 3.2% decrease due to lower volumes partially offset by favorable product mix and price increases.
  • Depletions — 5% decline in the third quarter, trailing the broader beer and beyond beer market which fell approximately 3% in volume.
  • Shipment Volume — 1.8 million barrels, falling 4.9% compared to the prior year third quarter.
  • Gross Margin — 51.7% in the third quarter, increasing 90 basis points year over year to reach the highest quarterly rate for the company since 2017.
  • Non-GAAP EPS — $4.37 in the third quarter, excluding $0.16 per share in nonrecurring litigation expenses related to a supplier dispute.
  • Sun Cruiser Growth — 60% increase in tracked channels during the quarter, with the brand becoming a top four spirits ready-to-drink brand in approximately two years.
  • Internal Production — 98% of domestic volume produced internally during the third quarter, increasing from 89% in the prior year period due to brewery efficiencies.
  • Twisted Tea Market Share — 85% share of the malt-based hard tea market, while the nearest competitor maintains a low-single-digit share.
  • Full Year Depletions Guidance — Down mid-single digits, which is the low end of the previous guidance range of down low-single digits to mid-single digits.
  • Full Year Gross Margin Guidance — 49% to 50%, representing 50 to 150 basis points of expansion year over year despite higher freight and commodity costs.
  • Full Year Non-GAAP EPS Guidance — $9.00 to $10.50, representing a raise from the previous low end of $8.50.
  • Tariff Costs — $18 million to $22 million projected for the full year, a reduction from the prior estimate of $20 million to $30 million.
  • Capital Expenditures — $55 million to $70 million for the full year, reduced from the previous estimate of $60 million to $80 million due to the timing of brewery projects.
  • Advertising Spend — $9.0 million reduction in the third quarter, as management reallocated investment away from nonperforming Truly hard seltzer campaigns.
  • Freight Costs — $9.5 million increase in the third quarter, as higher transportation rates offset the benefit of lower shipment volumes.
  • Distributor Inventory — 4 weeks on hand at quarter end, compared to 4.5 weeks on hand at the end of the prior year third quarter.
  • Share Repurchases — $79.5 million year to date through Oct. 16, 2026, leaving approximately $149 million remaining on the current authorization.
  • Truly Performance — Remains the number two brand in the hard seltzer category despite volume pressure and a shift in retailer display focus toward spirits.
  • Price Increases — 1% to 2% projected for the full year, consistent with the previous guidance range.
  • Litigation Impact — $14.51 per share unfavorable impact on year-to-date GAAP earnings per share due to $200.3 million in litigation expenses and related legal fees.

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RISKS

  • Koch reported that the overall beer market faces demand pressure reflecting “higher gas prices and the cumulative effect of inflation on our consumers,” leading to industry volume declines.
  • Koch noted that “retailer display and feature focus” has shifted toward ready-to-drink spirits, creating a headwind for the 12-pack format of malt-based products like Twisted Tea.
  • Murphy reported that higher freight rates resulted in “$9.5 million in higher freight costs” during the quarter, with rate inflation exceeding 50% year over year.

SUMMARY

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM +7.65%) reported third-quarter results characterized by gross margin expansion to 51.7% despite a 5% decline in depletions and a challenging macroeconomic environment. Management stated that strong growth in the Sun Cruiser brand and significant productivity improvements in the supply chain helped offset volume declines in the Truly and Samuel Adams brands. The company narrowed its full-year guidance, raising the low end for gross margin and non-GAAP EPS while lowering volume expectations to the bottom of the previous range. Strategic focus remains on stabilizing the Truly brand through reassessing all elements of its identity, expanding innovation in the vodka aid and high-ABV categories, and driving continued productivity through increased internal production.

  • CEO Koch stated, “Sun Cruiser has become a top 4 spirits RTD in just over 2 years and continues to rank among the category’s fastest growing brands in combined measured on and off premise channels.”
  • Management reported that 98% of domestic volume was produced internally during the quarter, helping the company absorb higher aluminum, energy, and tariff costs.
  • The company plans to launch Rally Dog, a 5% ABV vodka aid product, and LYTT, a 15% ABV malt-based beverage, nationally in 2027.
  • Interim CFO Murphy noted that full-year gross margin guidance of 49% to 50% reflects benefits from positive pricing, favorable product mix, and lower shortfall fees.
  • Management reported that a $3 million tariff refund in the third quarter and lower-than-expected ingredient and packaging tariffs led to a reduction in projected full-year tariff expenses.
  • CEO Koch noted that the Truly brand’s “packaging, the… all elements of the brand identity are basically being reassessed” following the appointment of Alison Stransky as Chief Marketing Officer.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

  • Depletions: Sales from wholesalers to retailers, which the company uses as a primary measure of consumer demand.
  • Beyond Beer: A category of alcoholic beverages including hard seltzers, hard teas, and hard ciders that fall outside traditional beer.
  • RTD: Ready-to-drink beverages, which are pre-mixed cocktails or spirits-based drinks.
  • FMB: Flavored malt beverages, a category of alcoholic drinks that includes brands like Twisted Tea.
  • On-premise: Consumption locations where beverages are sold and consumed on-site, such as bars, restaurants, and stadiums.
  • Off-premise: Retail locations where beverages are purchased for consumption elsewhere, such as grocery, liquor, and convenience stores.
  • OEE: Overall Equipment Effectiveness, a standard manufacturing metric used to evaluate how effectively a production operation is utilized.
  • Vodka Aid: An emerging category of vodka-based drinks typically featuring fruit flavors such as lemonade.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Operator: Greetings. And welcome to the Boston Beer Company Third Quarter 26 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. it is now my pleasure to introduce Mike Andrews, associate general counsel and corporate secretary. Please go ahead.

Michael G. Andrews: Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome. This is Mike Andrews Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of the Boston Beer Company. I am pleased to kick off our 26 third quarter earnings call. Joining the call from Boston Beer are C. James Koch, CEO, brewer, and founder and Matthew Donal Murphy, our Interim CFO. Before we discuss our business, I will start with our disclaimer. As we stated in our earnings release, some of the information we discuss and that may come up on this call reflects the company’s or management’s expectations or predictions of the future.

Such predictions are forward looking statements. it is important to note that the company’s actual results could differ materially from those projected in these forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements is contained in the company’s most recent 10 Q and 10 ks. The company does not undertake to publicly update forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I will now pass over to Jim for some introductory comments.

C. James Koch: Thanks, Mike. I will begin my remarks this afternoon with an overview of our strategy and operating results before turning the call over to Matthew Donal Murphy, to discuss the third quarter financial results and our financial outlook for the remainder of 2026. After Matt’s comments, we will open the line for questions. Now let’s start with a look at industry trends. The overall beer market continues to face demand pressure reflecting a range of factors, particularly the impact of higher gas prices and the cumulative effect of inflation on our consumers.

We estimate that the combined total beer and beyond beer market declined approximately 3% in volume in the third quarter and approximately 2% year to date Beyond Beer continues to outperform traditional beer with volume growing approximately 1% year to date compared with an approximately 3% decline in traditional beer. We expect continued macroeconomic pressure on consumers to weigh on industry volumes throughout the balance of 2026. With respect to the Boston Beer portfolio, our volume trends trailed the broader category in the third quarter with mixed performance across our portfolio. Depletions and shipments declined approximately 5% in the quarter, with total hard tea and lemonade depletions up slightly and growth in cider.

Primarily offset by declines in beer and hard seltzer. On a more positive note, Sun Cruiser grew approximately 60% in tracked channels in the quarter, Angry Orchard grew for the 6th consecutive quarter, and on premise trends were up low-single digits across our portfolio. For the full year, we expect shipments to be slightly ahead of depletions. This reflects a prior year comparison to inventory reductions associated with our supply chain improvements that Matthew will discuss further in his remarks. Despite a soft industry volume environment, softer than we planned at the start of the year, we continue to make strong progress on our margin enhancement.

Third quarter gross margin of 51.7% was up 90-basis-points year over year and is our highest gross margin rate since 2017. Our savings agenda has enabled us to absorb higher aluminum energy and tariff costs and we are tracking ahead of our planned full year 2026 savings. The business is generating strong cash flow and we have repurchased $80 million in shares year to date through October 16, 2026. Today, we are narrowing our full year guidance ranges which reflect our performance through the first 3 quarters of the year and our view of the industry trends as I discussed earlier.

We now expect depletions and shipments to be down mid-single digits, which is the low end of our prior range. Based on our strong gross margin performance year to date, we are raising the low end of our gross margin and EPS guidance. This is particularly notable given continued elevated freight costs and reflects the productivity mindset we have built across the organization during the past several years. Our priority for the balance of the year remain. Improving market share trends, launching strong innovation, and driving gross margin expansion. We continue to support our brands through strong partnerships compelling programming, and effective local market activations in partnership with our wholesalers.

At retail, we have made modest progress on increasing total portfolio shelves space while display space remains an area of opportunity as it continues to over index to RTD spirits. Before I review our brand performance and upcoming plans, I would like to take a moment to welcome Alison Stransky, who joined Boston Beer earlier this month as our new chief marketing officer. Alison brings a unique blend of consumer brand building, and data driven digital marketing expertise. She has held prior positions at Google, Samsung, L’Oreal, and Johnson & Johnson. And she’s also a big fan of craft beer. We are excited to have her on the team as we continue to strengthen and evolve our marketing capabilities.

Now turning to our brands. In the hard tea and lemonade category, we are continuing our work to improve share trends and grow total combined volume of our 2 leading brands, Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea. Sun Cruiser has become a top 4 spirits RTD in just over 2 years and continues to rank among the category’s fastest growing brands in combined measured on and off premise channels. It also continues to be the leading RTD spirits tea and lemonade brand in the measured on premise channel and has the highest growth in velocity among leading RTD spirits, tea, and lemonade brands in the off premise channel.

Sun Cruiser is building on its strong summer US Open golf championship activation as we reinforce its position as a year round brand that will grow in both existing and new markets and across channels. SunCruiser continues to increase its media presence in sports and other events, including the PGA, Major League Baseball, the world champion, New York Knicks, and sponsorship of numerous music concert series. Last month, the brand expanded its on premise sports presence through a partnership with MetLife Stadium, the New York Jets, and the New York Giants. Advertising support for SunCruiser includes content around the Let the Good Times Cruise media campaign, across television, paid social and digital advertising, and key influencers and creators.

SunCruiser is leaning into ski season with in market displays, retail, and on premise POS material, branded hard goods such as snow suits and snowboards, partnerships with major ski areas, and a winter themed media campaign that begins in December. We continue to see strong velocity and distribution opportunities for SunCruiser, giving us confidence in the brand’s continued growth potential. Twisted Tea continues to be the clear No. 1 brand in the malt based hard tea market with more than 85% market share while the next largest brand has only a low-single-digit share.

We believe the brand’s volume declines reflect a combination of factors, including some interaction with spirits based hard teas like Sun Cruiser, a shift in retailer display and feature focus towards RTD spirits and the brand’s higher exposure to value conscious consumers. The largest volume headwind for Twisted Tea continues to be on 12-packs, which have been impacted by reduced FMB displays and shifting consumer purchase behavior. From a share perspective, Twisted Tea singles, Twisted Tea Light, and Twisted Tea Extreme all continue to grow share of the FMB category year to date. This year, we have increased advertising investment for Twisted Tea while adding new partnerships launching new pack sizes, and expanding Twisted Tea Extreme.

We are continuing our disciplined test and learn approach to revenue management on the brand, including pricing. Targeted pricing adjustments and smaller pack size offerings. We will continue to assess their impact as we gather additional data. Twisted Tea has also launched a partnership with RealTree Camo, a popular brand of camouflage clothing and outdoor gear that helps us deepen the brand’s connections to outdoor drinking occasions and drive displays. There are 3 limited edition camo wrapped packs in the market now. We are backing this partnership with significant media as well as a Field and Stream sponsorship, creative creator partnerships, and shopper media support in C stores. To drive conversion on twisted tea single serve cans.

We are also capitalizing on football season which is 1 of the brand’s most important consumption occasions. We are running our high performing tea drop ads on marquee college football matchups, continuing our title sponsorship of Barstool’s Pardon My Take and investing in shopper media to drive party pack conversion at retail. While there is some interaction between Twisted Tea and SunCruiser, they each play a role in our portfolio, and we believe their differentiated positioning provides an opportunity to improve the combined performance of the 2 brands over time. As we have mentioned previously, to the extent Sun Cruiser sources some drinker demand away from Twisted Tea, it is still both revenue and margin accretive for us.

Turning to hard seltzer, while Truly continues to face challenging trends, it remains the No. 2 brand in the hard seltzer category. We continue to assess the brand strategy and are taking actions to improve its performance over time. In the near term, we are reprioritizing 12-packs. Around our core best selling flavors. We are rethinking our rotating variety packs, and we are expanding packages around our core style, truly WildBerry. In cider, angry orchard is seeing growth across both core flavors and seasonal packs, for the 2nd straight year. The fall seasonal the thriller variety pack, which launched in August, has grown triple digits in measured off premise channels.

The brand’s partnership with the iconic scream horror movie series includes Scream and angry orchard integration across all marketing programs limited edition Christopher Bapple and Christopher Imperial, single serve packaging, and celebrity media integration through Halloween. Turning to beer, our Samuel Adams brand, this fall, we launched 2 new remastered vintage ads from our independent since forever campaign. They have tested extremely well with our consumers, We saw a strong improvement in Boston lager velocity trends, over the summer driven by America 250 program. Oktoberfest season is underway. Featuring the launch of the new Samuel Adams nonalcoholic Oktoberfest. Support includes a national partnership with Snyder’s Pretzels on premise Stein hoisting events, and major Oktoberfest festival, activations.

For our Dogfish Head brand, we continue to expand our Grateful Dead Beer collaboration and be. Invest behind the Minute Series IPAs. We have also recently introduced a new partnership with Rolling Stone magazine to further bolster our connection with music. And turning to innovation, we have multiple brands in development that are aligned with our strategy to develop high growth margin accretive opportunities. Rally Dog Vodka is the newest ready to drink cocktail from our innovation incubator. Joining the emerging vodka aid space, it was launched last month in 4 states with unique packaging, easy to understand flavors, 100-calories-per-can, and 5% ABV.

Rally Dog is expanding to 7 additional states over the next month with plans to go national in 2027. As we expand, we are focused on building awareness deepening distributor engagement, and establishing a larger retail footprint as we head into next year. LYTT electric coolers, which initially launched in 5 states, has now expanded to an additional 18 states and will be available nationally in 2027. LYTT is 15% ABV, malt based, and offered in 6 flavors in a resealable and recyclable 6.8-ounce package. The. This concept targets the pre event occasion with potential to be largely incremental to our portfolio.

Additionally, LYTT took home the 2026 best new alcoholic beverage high ABV award at the annual National Association of Convenience Stores show earlier this month. Sinless Vodka cocktails continues in test as a zero-sugar, zero-carb, 100-calorie offering. These innovation brands are still in the early stages of development, and are not expected to have a significant impact on our results this year but we see an opportunity for innovation to become much more meaningful as we move into 2027. In closing, despite a challenging operating environment, we have made significant progress strengthening our operations and advancing our savings initiative.

That progress is helping us offset significant unplanned commodity and freight inflation while maintaining our brand support and bringing new accretive innovation to market. We remain disciplined in how we manage the business and we are working closely with our wholesaler partners to strengthen marketplace execution to drive sustainable long term growth. I would like to thank our Boston Beer team and our distributors and retailers for their continued support. I will now pass the call to Matthew Donal Murphy who has assumed the role of interim chief financial officer and brings a deep financial knowledge of Boston Beer.

The board and I appreciate Matthew stepping into this additional role while we conduct a comprehensive search to identify our next CFO.

Matthew Donal Murphy: Thank you, Jim. Good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with a discussion of our third quarter results followed by an update on our savings initiatives and then turn to our updated full year outlook. Depletions decreased 5%, and shipments decreased 4.9%, compared to the third quarter of last year. Driven by declines in Twisted Tea, Truly, and Samuel Adams, partially offset by growth in our Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard brands. Distributor inventory at the end of the quarter was 4 weeks on hand, slightly below the 4.5 weeks on hand at the end of the prior year quarter.

Revenue decreased 3.2% with lower volumes being partially offset by favorable product mix and price increases, Product mix continues to benefit from strong growth in SunCruiser. Gross margin was 51.7%, our highest quarterly gross margin since 2017 and an increase of 90-basis-points year over year. The improvement was driven by higher brewery efficiencies, favorable product mix, procurement savings, and price increases. Partially offset by inflationary commodity, and tariff related costs. Advertising, promotional, and selling expenses were flat year over year. This reflected $9.5 million in higher freight costs with higher freight rates more than offsetting the benefit of lower shipment and a $9.1 million reduction in advertising spend.

General and administrative expenses decreased $2.1 million year over year, primarily due to lower salary and benefit costs. Current quarter expenses $400 thousand of legal fees associated with the previously disclosed supplier dispute litigation. Brewery asset impairment expenses were $2.9 million, an increase of $1.5 million from the comparable period of 2025. Reflecting higher noncash write offs of equipment at company owned breweries. Non GAAP operating profit declined 6% year-over-year as strong gross margin performance and disciplined advertising spend were offset by lower volumes, and freight rate inflation of over 50% year over year. The third quarter is supplier dispute litigation, expense of $1.8 million reflects post judgment interest expense.

Year to date pretax litigation expenses, related legal fees, totaled $200.3 million As previously announced, we intend to continue to pursue all post trial motions and appellate remedies that are available to us on the supplier dispute litigation. We cannot estimate when or if damages or interests will ultimately be paid or when this matter will ultimately be resolved. But we do not expect it to have a material impact on our operating plans. These litigation expenses and related legal fees represent a $16 unfavorable impact to our third quarter GAAP EPS, and a $14.51 unfavorable impact to our year to date GAAP EPS.

Excluding litigation related expenses, third quarter non GAAP EPS was $4.37 Now I will provide an update on our ongoing productivity initiatives. We continue to make steady progress and remain on track to deliver our 2026 saving targets across the 4 buckets that we have discussed previously. I will provide a few highlights on our initiatives within each bucket. In brewery performance, we continue to see improvements in OEEs, driven by process improvements, which has increased our internal production capacity. In the third quarter, we produced 98% of our domestic volume internally compared to 89% in the third quarter of last year.

For the full year 2026, we continue to expect domestic internal production to exceed 90% compared to 86% in 2025. In procurement savings, our third quarter results benefited from lower negotiated pricing on certain packaging and ingredients. While our procurement savings initiatives are further along than other work streams, we do expect continued savings into 2027. In waste network and optimization, we continue to enhance our customer ordering and inventory management processes. These efforts have helped us maintain high customer service levels while reducing inventory improving cash flow. Revenue management capabilities were added this year as part of our margin agenda. These efforts are in the early stages in 2026, with a more meaningful contribution expected in 2027.

Turning to our 2026 guidance. Given that 3 quarters of the year are behind us, and our fourth quarter is a seasonally small quarter, we are narrowing our full year guidance ranges. Our updated volume expectation of down mid-single digits is at the lower end of our previous guidance and reflects the category trends that Jim discussed in his remarks. Fiscal week depletion trends for the first 42 weeks of 2026 have declined 5% year over year, and our updated outlook assumes this trend largely continues in the fourth quarter. We expect shipments to be slightly ahead of depletions for the full year. With shipments meaningfully ahead of depletions in the fourth quarter.

As we discussed on our last call, we implemented supply chain improvements in 2025, that enabled more consistent distributor inventory levels. As a result of the impact of these changes on prior year shipment flows, together with the expected timing of orders, in 2026 we currently expect modest shipment growth in the fourth quarter We continue to expect price increases of between 1% to 2% and some additional benefit from mix. The strong productivity we have delivered year to date along with our updated projection of lower tariff costs enables us to raise the low end of our gross margin and EPS guidance despite softer volume trends and higher freight costs.

We do not hedge commodities and have updated our cost assumptions for freight and aluminum to reflect the current pricing environment. We will continue to monitor commodity markets although the impact of further cost volatility on our full year outlook is more limited with only 1 quarter remaining in the year. Our updated gross margin guidance of 49% to 50% represents 50- to 150-basis-points of margin expansion year over year. This reflects benefits from positive pricing, favorable product mix, productivity savings, and lower shortfall fees. These benefits are partially offset by headwinds from ongoing tariff costs commodity inflation and lower volumes. As a reminder, the majority of our freight expense is booked in advertising, promotional, and selling expenses.

Stronger productivity savings and lower tariff costs including the benefit of a $3 million tariff refund in the third quarter, are enabling us to raise the low end of our gross margin guidance even with lower than expected volumes. We now expect full year tariff costs of $18 million to $22 million compared with our previous guidance of $20 million to $30 million and a partial year $11 million in 2025. The lower outlook primarily reflects ingredient and packaging tariffs coming in below our previous estimate. Our guidance assumes the tariff rates currently being charged by our suppliers remain in place for the balance of the year.

From a phasing perspective, at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect year over year gross margin rate improvement to be the most pronounced in the fourth quarter. Reflecting lower shortfall fees and higher shipments year over year. We typically recognize the majority of our shortfall fees in the fourth quarter. The reduction in these fees combined with the fourth quarter being a seasonally smaller dollar quarter results in an outsized favorable impact to the gross margin rate. We remain disciplined in our approach to advertising investment. Closely monitoring returns and adjusting spending accordingly.

Based on this ongoing evaluation, we now expect advertising, promotional, and selling expenses to be approximately flat which is at the low end of our prior guidance range. Estimate does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to our distributors. Importantly, we continue to invest meaningfully behind our brands with advertising building on a strong base following $61 million in 2025 and $6.5 million in 2024. Fourth quarter advertising spend in 2026 is expected to decline year over year as we have reduced investment levels in Truly have difficult comparisons. As we mentioned previously, the fourth quarter of 25 included meaningful production costs associated with preparation for 2026.

Fourth quarter 26 spend is expected to be comparable to the spend in the fourth quarter of 24. We continue to estimate our full year 2026 non GAAP effective tax rate to be ~29% to 30%. We have raised the low end of our non GAAP EPS guidance and narrowed the range to $9 to $10.50. Compared to our prior range of $8.50 to $10.50. Turning to capital allocation. Ended the quarter with a $38 million cash balance and a $150 million available on our line of credit. These balances, together with our projected future operating cash flows, enable us to maintain operating investments in our business and cash returns to shareholders as well as the potential litigation related payment.

We expect capital expenditures of between $55 million and $70 million in 2026, a reduction from our previous estimate of between $60 million and $80 million. These investments will be primarily related to our owned breweries to build capabilities. Improve efficiencies, and support innovations. We will continue to be disciplined in our capital spending, we monitor the dynamic industry environment over the long term. During the 39 week period ended September 26, 26 and the period from September 27, 2026, through October 16, 2026, We have repurchased shares in the amounts of $73.5 million and $6 million respectively. As of October 16, 2026, we had approximately $149 million remaining on the $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization.

This concludes our prepared remarks. And now we will open the line for questions.

Operator: Thank you. And a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press *2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And due to the interest of time, we ask that each analyst limit themselves to 1 question and 1 follow-up. Thank you. Moment, please, while we poll for questions. And our first question comes from the line of Filippo Falorni with Citi. Please proceed.

Filippo Falorni: Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Jim, are I wanted to go back to your initial comment on the category. Obviously, we started the year with some optimism in January, and February, and then we really see. Seen a material deceleration into the summer, You called out some of the macro impacts and gas prices. How are you seeing those impacts evolving as you exit the quarter? Have you seen any signs of slight improvement?

I know you are expecting still soft in Q4, but any sequential improvement that you are seeing And bigger picture, do you think, next year, we could see a bit of an improvement relative to this easier comparison on a 2 year basis, or how are you thinking about the category, evolving from here? Thank you.

C. James Koch: it is a really good question. I wish I had a crystal ball. But I will I will just give you my observations. I do not. Again, I am do not have any more expertise in some of the, my industry, colleagues and peers that have commented on it. What we have seen, as you alluded to, Filippo, is the year began reasonably, strong in the sense of a big improvement from last year when it was down on the order of ~4%. And it is deteriorated since then a little bit.

I mean, these are not huge numbers, but, and our definitions may be different from other people’s We sort of define it as our addressable market, which is both beer, as traditionally defined, and then this fourth category of beyond beer type products. And bottom line, they were you know, in the beginning of the year, improved. The numbers we are looking at is year to date, traditional beer down ~3%, Beyond Beer up 1%, which should advantage us since about 80 to 85% of our volume is in the beyond beer category depending on your definition. So we and 15%’s traditional beer, which is the opposite of the rest of the beer industry.

But in the third quarter, it looked like traditional beer which. Well, of being down ~3% is down 4%, and Beyond Beer is up the same ~1%. So much of the deterioration is in the traditional beer category. So we are, you know, we are looking at a situation where, Q3 is noticeably, worse than Q1. Whether that will continue to deteriorate, stabilize, I do not know. If I were to think about last year versus this year, a couple of things have gotten better. For example, you know, we are no longer reading about alcohol causes cancer. On a regular basis. So that idea is still stuck in a lot of people’s heads, luckily.

Doctor Oz, you know, in talking about the dietary guidelines, mentioned that, social isolation and loneliness are also, not good for your health. And beer plays a part in bringing people together. So there is a more complex discussion of the health effects, the pressure on the Hispanic population from, you know, from ICE and other agencies. You know, putting pressure on them has let up a little bit. On the other hand, the economy, got noticeably worse, especially for kind of the bottom 80% of the population. Which over indexes up in many ways on beer. And you know, and their wages did not keep up with inflation. So pressure on their discretionary income.

You know, GLP 1 drugs are still out there. Hemp is still out there. I do not know that those have changed that much, since last year. So, I guess, the bottom line is the year has gotten worse. Rather than better mainly due to something cyclical. Which is, you know, the price of gas and inflation being above wage growth. Does that help?

Filippo Falorni: Right. No. that is that is very helpful. And I guess, Jim, I love your perspective on the vodka aid category. We have seen, obviously, a lot of launches there. You have Rally Dog, How are you seeing this category evolve compared to prior ones that you have had strong success like ourselves or our teas. It seems like it is very competitive just very early in the development of the category, but just I love your perspective on the process for the category and the competition there. Thank you.

C. James Koch: Yeah. Again, I do not have a crystal ball, but my observation would be that this vodka aid category has exploded faster than, you know, than hard tea, hard seltzer, even RTDs like Neutral and Cutwater and High Noon. I mean, those all of those were around for years before they really hit everybody’s radar screen and caused a land grab. Vodka aid in a year is basically gone from this little curiosity primarily in New Jersey to, you know, the next big thing in people’s minds.

Now will it be like something that had a similar, you know, rocket ship curve, which was way back 10 years ago, hard root beer which was boom, splat, and disappeared all in a 24 month period. Hard to tell now. It feels like it is got more legs. It does not have the vulnerabilities that hard root beer had where it had 320 calories in 12 ounces. So I would. I do not know how big it can get. But it is certainly gotten a lot of support from retailers. And so the next 12 months, there will be a lot of activity in it.

I think I counted a dozen entrants, all of which have come in the last year or so. Pretty much everybody has an entrant except Molson Coors and ABI, and I would guess that they will probably throw something or buy somebody So I do not. You know, it is certainly gonna be where a lot of the action is. Both at the retailer level and the wholesaler level. As well as the supplier level over the next 12 months. How big is it gonna get? Hard to know. I doubt that it would get as big as hard seltzer. Or hard tea. If it did, that would make it a real player. So we will have to see.

I mean, we are very happy with our entrant it is called Rally Dog. We have gotten significant commitments from major chains. Who are, making it their number 2 or 3, bet in the vodka aid category. it is distinctive in terms of its brand presentation it is not a generic name. it is a personality. The flavor profile tests better than the competition. So we are confident in the quality of the liquid. And as opposed to just about anybody else, we have a track record of innovation with the retailer and the wholesalers, and we have you know, a very large sales force that can execute at retail.

So there is gonna be a lot of, you know, No. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 out there that I think will struggle to get the distribution and the prioritization at wholesale and retail. With, all these new entrants. So I think it will very quickly sort down to you know, maybe 4 players and maybe down to 2 or 3 from there. Great. Thanks so much. I will pass it on.

Operator: Next question comes from the line of Peter Grom with UBS. Please proceed.

Peter Grom: Great. Thank you. Good evening, guys. Hope you both are doing well. So I wanted you to shift to maybe profitability just in the context of the environment we have been in from a cost and volume standpoint the gross margin performance has been impressive. You both kind of touched on the productivity mindset. But you have benefited from mix, you know, brewer efficiencies and other factories as well. And I just asked this in the context that it does not really seem like the inflationary backdrop or the volume backdrop is really shifting.

So how much more room is there for you to push on these other drivers to kind of keep gross margin especially now that you have internal production kind of north of, I think you mentioned, north of 96%.

Matthew Donal Murphy: Yes. Thanks, Peter. Great question. We have been on a voyage here, started around a 42% margin. And over the last 3 years, we have taken it to where it is now, and we feel really good about being at or very near 50% on an annual run basis. We have absorbed some big headwinds particularly this year. When you look through to what we have provided, we have had aluminum just this year. Up, 30 plus million, and we have been able to offset that. That negative. We have had to offset some higher freight costs as well. Those typically do not show up in our margin. They are mostly in the AP and S as we present them.

So we have been able to continue to demonstrate some great efficiencies at our breweries Our supply chain has improved. Considerably, and we keep– we are not done for sure. We are gonna keep trying to grow our margins. We will see, you know, what the volume environment is. that is a big factor as we have talked about before. We will always have some level of co packing. it is part of our model and, you know, it makes a ton of sense when we are trying to provide product particularly in the West Coast. So we see opportunity. You know, we will we will come back to you in February with what we think will improve between 2026-2027.

But we do see opportunity. And, continued progress, you know, past 50%. Great.

Peter Grom: You know what? I will I will leave it there. Thank you so much. I will pass it on.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Eric Serotta with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Eric Serotta: Great. Thanks for the question, and good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to, Jim, get your impression and expectations for SunCruiser and the spirits based or vodka based tea category. As we look to next year and we are in year 3 of year 2.5, you seem to be cycling the national distribution. Very well, but can you talk about puts and takes? And what it will take to continue this growth in 27.

C. James Koch: Yeah. We think there is continued room for, you know, more. Well, for double digit growth in 2027. We believe we are gonna get more shelf space both from the chains and from independent liquor. We are, you know, we are seeing a growth rate. You know, it started as triple digits this year. I think in measured channels in the last 13 weeks, it is still close to 60%. Obviously, it is coming down and will continue to come down. But we continue to believe that there is significant growth next year both from expanded distribution and more of our SKUs in each store. So.

And we are probably the leader in the T part of this vodka tea and lemonade, and we believe there is growth and we are seeing it now stronger growth in the lemonade, piece of it. Great.

Eric Serotta: And then as you, just turning to the cost side, Matthew, I think that freight was something like a $9.5 million to $10 million year on year headwinds in your AT and S line in the third quarter. How are you thinking about that for the fourth quarter? Do you think this is a reasonable run rate based on where freight rates are today. I know forecasting for next year is, is anybody’s guess at this point. But if we mark to market with where rates are today is kind of a $10 million year on year impact reasonable for the next couple of quarters?

Matthew Donal Murphy: Yeah. We. We have we have projected out, you know, for the remainder of 2026 that it is gonna continue. We used the high rates that we experienced in Q3. And in Q3, it, you know, it grew $9 million. there is a little less volume in q so maybe it is a little lower than that. We are always working on our on freight optimization, so maybe we get a little benefit from that. But, you know, in general, we are just assuming we have that same, same level of increase.

Eric Serotta: Great. Thanks so much. I will pass it on.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Kaumil Gajrawala: Hey, everybody. Guess a couple of questions. The first is it was depletions down 5%, advertising flat. Know, I feel like the history of the company has often been to accelerate advertising, during sort of more difficult times. So I am just curious, maybe it is because of Alison’s arrival, better to sort of throttle back until there is enough time for her lay out her own plan or is there something else going on? With you know, what the right level of advertising should be to try to turn overall top line around?

Matthew Donal Murphy: Yeah. Hi. Hi, Kamal. Great question. Just I will start off and then hand it off to Jim. You know, just we had a big increase between 24 and 25. It was around $60 million and we have been. You know, we are projecting flat between 25 and 26. You know, we think we.

We are at the right level right now. there is a little timing involved with we sort of front loaded, the first half of the year and have because of the World Cup and other, you know, other timing items, So we were down in the third quarter and will likely be down in the fourth quarter, and that will work to flat for, for the full year. And, you know, as we have said, you know, we. We are trying to optimize the spend and reduce some spend that was nonperforming, particularly around Truly as we talked about in July. But, you know, we will we will continue to look at it, try to optimize.

Certainly, Alison has joined and we are really excited about that. And her skill set So, you know, we are gonna take a lot of time to think through what we need for 2027. Look at where our volume are and what we need to support our brands and invest as we see.

C. James Koch: Yeah. And I would add to that. If I may. The yeah. Our approach to advertising maybe is a little different in that we think less you know, in brand terms, like, okay. We all have these brands, and each 1 of them has an advertising budget. We may start to hear that way, but we will. We are pretty fluid among brands essentially depending on whether we believe the creative and the campaign is actually driving sales. And the effect of that approach is somewhat visible. And what you have seen this year basically, you know, we had what we thought was a good campaign behind Truly. Especially with our sponsorship of the US team.

In the World Cup, and we had special ads around that. And bottom line, they did not work. The depletions did not respond. So to the campaign that we have behind Truly. So we cut it significantly and reallocated that money, some to Twisted Tea, where the evidence we have is that, people exposed to the ads how. Will in fact increase their purchases of it. So in that sense, the advertising is working, though there is some, you know, category trends pushing things the other way. The advertising does seem to get a sales response. And we put some money behind Samuel Adams where we were also appearing to get a sales response. As well as, Angry Orchard.

So that is what you saw was essentially we cut advertising that was not working. And we reallocated it to where the advertising was working. Got it.

Kaumil Gajrawala: that is, that is very useful. If I could, also ask about. You mentioned something very interesting earlier on this display activity and maybe Twisted getting boxed-out with so much focus on the vodka based teas. How do we think about that in 2027 in the context of we are likely to have something similar happen with all the vodka aids, whether it is your own with Rally Dog or maybe some of the others probably going to be a big merchandising display feature category. And so how do you fit Twisted or try to turn Twisted in that environment?

C. James Koch: Yeah. It I think you are right. it is gonna happen. I do not know if it will be worse than this year because I do suspect that there is gonna be a slowdown in like, the Surfside Sun Cruiser market. And High Noon which a couple of years ago, was getting disproportionate in the big displays. High Noon appears actually to be in decline now. Neutral, sort of the same kind of thing. So I do not see it being worse for Twisted Tea in 2027 and 2026. It will just be a different cast of characters. That you know, the retailers are gonna be jumping on because it is growing.

And that it is it will be the vodka aids, but I think those will largely take away from, like, the High Noons, the neutrals, even the Surfside and the Sun Cruisers. So I do not I do not see it being worse for Twisted Tea, just a different set of competitors grabbing the display space. Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Bonnie Herzog: Alright. Thank you. Hi, everyone. I had a quick question on Truly. The brand continues to be quite pressured. So guess I would love to hear your strategy for the brand and maybe whether you are considering implementing big. Bigger changes. You know, you touched on this, Jen. You know, You are pulling back a fair amount on advertising on the brand, but you know, are there other things you could do, like SKU rationalization? On the brand? I guess I am ultimately you know, trying to understand, do you think Truly volume can stabilize? Or, you know, will you maybe manage the brand to optimize and cash flow? Thanks.

Operator: To answer your question directly, our approach would be to stabilize or even grow the brand.

C. James Koch: I mean, it is just it. it is too big to give up on it. I. You know, it we could not easily replace that volume if it. If we just liquidate it. That said, that essentially means that we are committed to do something. So doing nothing is not an option. And in that context, that sort of puts everything on the table beyond you know, SKU rationalization and new taglines and stuff like that. It puts the liquid on the table. It puts, you know, the positioning, the packaging, the. All elements of the brand identity are basically being reassessed in an effort to you know, we started right after the World Cup.

And Allison is it was her first week, but it is 1 of her top priorities is what is let’s just open it up to any change in Truly that would stabilize the brand and provide a longer term basis to grow from there. In my point of view, you know, it is unnaturally low in market share. You generally you know, we have. We are what, a fourth or a fifth of white claws. it is a Usually, things stabilize at a liter, and then the second biggest brand is roughly half of that size, and we are not seeing that kind of stability here. So we basically have said we are willing to do.

We are willing to look at everything. To. And looking. We are looking at turnarounds of other brands and what they have entailed. And you gotta put even the liquid itself on the table. And so that is what we are asking ourselves. The 10-year-old category, it may be time it is kinda has not been a lot of news. So our question is, is there a next generation of heart seltzer?

Bonnie Herzog: that is interesting. No. that is helpful. And maybe just a quick follow on that. You know, in thinking about the guidance and CapEx, you did lower it again. So just would love to hear from you how we should think about that decision and maybe what it suggests about either the growth outlook or the health of your business? Thanks.

Matthew Donal Murphy: Yeah, Bonnie. I will take that. it is just timing. We have a number of projects in flight, and you know, there is there is details really. Related to suppliers and availability of equipment, and we just pushed out some spend into in from 2026 to 2027. there is no, we spend, to optimize our breweries. To spend on innovation. We feel like we have been at this you know, $50 million to $70 million range for a few years. We do not expect that to change, dramatically, but there will be, you know, different points within that range each year. As the projects come.

We have a particularly large wastewater project in our Pennsylvania brewery, and I think you know, some of that has been pushed out and, is the major factor for the for the for the call down. This year.

Bonnie Herzog: Alright. Thanks for that. I will pass it on.

Operator: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

Robert Ottenstein: Great. Thank you very much. Jim, scoping out to total beverage alcohol, are you surprised that there has not been more consolidation among suppliers over the last few years. And if so, what do you think the reason is And looking forward, do you think that is gonna change I. E, more consolidation? Thank you.

C. James Koch: I think the lack of consolidation has come from the growth opportunities being taken by new entrants, smaller entrance, or entrance from outside the beer category. So, you know, you have got people who are big players in Beyond Beer who are not in the traditional beer category. That would be like a Sazerac or a Gallo or a Stateside or even a Boston beer company. So those would those would be hard to consolidate. And, you know, ABI is not going to buy Gallo. Molson Coors is not gonna merge with Sazerac, for example. I think you will see going forward some of these new players being bought.

I mean, many of them as you saw with Spiked Ice, that followed a pattern you see in you know, carb. In the nonalcoholic beverage business where the entrepreneurs build the brands and grow them, but they grow them to sell them. And there are great synergies when it goes to a Pepsi or a Coke. So I suspect. Well, it is gonna happen what you saw with Spiked Ice, where that. The brand you know, was sold for a very attractive return. On the initial capital, and it consolidated You saw that with JuiceBox. You know, that was built And they. You knew it was eventually gonna be sold.

It was not gonna be, you know, a legacy brand that they were gonna pass down to their grandchildren or anything. When the they were gonna sell it at what they felt like was the peak. So I think you will get more. You are you are gonna see brands built to do that long drink, same thing. So bunches of examples of consolidation, and in this case, it looks like you know, the high growth emerging companies being sold to the people who have the long term synergies. I think that is what consolidation will be I think the bear industry is pretty consolidated. Okay. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein. Please proceed.

Nadine Sarwat: Thank you for taking my question. I have 2 please. First, Jim, you always provide a really thoughtful diagnosis on which driving the trends in the market. And at the start of the call, you called out gas prices and inflation being a key factor. Could you share specifics on how you are seeing this manifest in your different markets? Whether that is channel, pack dynamics, or other consumer behaviors And then my second question is with regards to pricing. You guys have maintained your guidance for 1% to 2% for the full year. As you look out over the next 12 months, various costs are from inflationary pressures.

What are your early expectations for pricing whether for you or even just more broadly for the market in the next 12 months? Thank you.

C. James Koch: Yep. Me go after the first question. I mean, some of the things that we have seen that reflect the pressures on the beer consumer would be, for example, in Twisted Tea, in the convenience channel, you know, the singles are becoming a bigger part of our volume because the consumer might not have the money for a 12-pack. So we are second example would be, dollar stores where we got, I think, 4 thousand points-of-distribution for a $9.99 4-pack of 16-ounce cans. So another sort of price pack architecture. So we are seeing. that is that is how it is manifesting, itself. We are seeing with twisted t, again, some.

A reasonable amount of spread in the shelf price, you know, range from $22.99 to $19.99, and $19.99 seems to be a price point So, we have had good responses from going. From, you know, the over $20 price point to the $19.99 price point. So not universally. So that is would be how I am and I am seeing it man. Those manifest itself in just in terms of raw consumer behavior. What we are seeing is you know, real wages are going down. Inflation is higher. Than real. Than wages. So people’s. And as a result, that just disproportionately strikes discretionary income So 1 of the things that people cut out, they just buy less alcohol in general.

And this pressure is strongest on the bottom 80% of the income strata, and that is where a lot of our drinkers are. So that just pushes overall consumption down. In terms of pricing, I mean, we are seeing something interesting. Have not seen for a while, which is significant drop in the real cost of beer. I mean, if inflation is up 3.5%, and beer prices are up 1.5%, that is basically in real dollars. Coming down 2%. And long-term, it is probably been 75-basis-points. Of real price decline in beer, which can be absorbed through productivity. The. I think long term, brewers are not gonna be able to take 2% of their cost structure out. Every year.

And the you are not gonna see 200-basis-points in real price decline on beer. When that will happen, you know, I do not know. I mean, we are roughly 4% of the market. So we do not have any pricing power. it is a very competitive market. And if, you know, we have to eat cost increases and camp them on because it is such a competitive market, We. there is nothing we can do about it. We eat them. But I do believe that cannot go on for the next 5 years. Eventually, prices are gonna have to reflect all of the cost inflation that we are seeing. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: As a reminder, everyone, And the next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler. Please proceed.

Michael Lavery: Thank you. Good evening. Just wanted to come back to some of the innovation you talked about the vodka aids a good bit earlier. But late at the convenience store show was very prominent, and it got a lot of attention. It just in showing off how it can be displayed and banners and everything. And I guess just curious maybe I would imagine some of that is just that it is a bit in market a little further already. So maybe it is it is a it is a timing.

You know, a good moment to amplify its kinda message a little more, but how should we think about maybe that or Rally Dog and how big they could be You touched on how important Truly is just because of its size. You know, the how would these fit into your thinking for how much it can offset other declines? Or what the. You know, how those pieces come together and how big of a push you will put behind either 1 or both of those?

C. James Koch: Sure. You know, basically we are gonna push what moves. So if we see you know? And we cannot predict, is something gonna catch fire? it is just I have been doing this 42 years, and I have been wrong as much as I am right. In terms of, you know, looking out a year. But, you know, you can look out 3 weeks, and if something’s moving, you know it. I would not you know, for 2026, negligible. So you probably do not even need to put it in your model.

For 2027, know, I do not see, you know, them getting to, you know, the place where Truly is now, for several years, even if they are wildly successful. You know, LYTT is kind of a unicorn. it is probably why it got so much excitement. It is a extremely innovative product in multiple ways. it is not just a, you know, a different liquid or anything like that. You know, it is it is strikingly. You just have to look at it and you go, wow. that is pretty interesting. It puts a smile on your face. Wow. You know, booze in a light bulb. Where did you think of that?

And it is you know, it sort of has some moats around it for that reason. You cannot make it. In a normal production facility. There we had to create the capacity. There was not contract capacity out there to do this. Nobody makes, you know, conveyor belts to move little light bulbs. Along. They are set for, you know, things with so. Various kinds of cylinders, and having a round bottom is weird. Of course, you know, having a screw top is not common among the normal set of contract producers. And it has to be merchandised differently. You cannot put it on the shelves. So.

And it is– so we take advantage of the fact that it is in the sweet spot for retailers. It is an incremental purchase. You know, people do not go to the liquor store to buy 3 light bulbs of lit. They see it and they put 3 of them in their basket, but they did not go there to buy LYTT. So it is an incremental purchase and it is extremely high margin. You know, the margins per case are extraordinary, both for the retailer and for the wholesaler. It might be, you know, the margin per case equivalent might be 5x what a normal beer is. So. And similar margin for the retailer.

So again, they do not need to sell tons of it. 1 ball maybe is much margin as they make on a 6-pack of a low end beer. Just 1 of those bulbs, and there are 24 of them in a case. And 40-something in a case equivalent. So it is it is a very out of the box product. That has to be made differently, and distributed differently. The distributors gotta put up, you know, suction cups. We have a variety of racks and dump bins and countertop displays. That will support this instinctual buying. We ask for 3 points of interruption in an account that carries it rather than just 1 spot on the shelf.

So I do not know. Is there a lot that is new and interesting? For it? And so we are gonna find out. But it has a lot of potential. And like I said, the margins are, you know, are multiples of everything else in our in our, product mix. And, you know, the vodka aid category is a little more traditional, know, it is kinda priced at r t. Vodka RTDs, like, Sun Cruiser. It fits on the shelf. You can merchandise it the same way. But it has, you know, gotten out of the gates faster than anything I have seen. Okay. that is really helpful.

Michael Lavery: 1 slightly related follow-up. Just talking about the color on how some of the setup for Q4 you think shipments will be up. How much of that might be pipeline fill related just given Rally Dog and LYTT going national next year?

Matthew Donal Murphy: Yeah. Thanks. Just very little is the simple answer. The impact of the higher inventory in Q3 25 at wholesaler we. We have given the improvements in our supply chain, we reduced the levels So we had less shipments in Q4 last year. We were. I think we are down 7%. So we are up against an easy comp, and we have had a consistent level of inventory at wholesalers. So I. there is some impact of load in, probably more for Rally Dog than LYTT, but you know, it. it is mostly that you know, just the timing of shipments given to. Given our supply chain improvements Okay. Thanks.

Michael Lavery: I will pass it on.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session, and I would like turn the call back to C. James Koch for closing remarks.

C. James Koch: Thank you all for very thoughtful questions. Today, and I look forward to speaking to all of you in February when we are gonna have wrapped up 2026, and we will have guidance for 2027. Cheers.

Matthew Donal Murphy: Cheers. Everyone.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And enjoy the rest of your day.

A 13-Year-Old Built a Backyard Wiffle Ball Stadium. Now His Family Owns the 73-Year-Old Brand



What began as backyard games during the pandemic grew into a national league. It just led to an unlikely acquisition.

JetBlue Mosaic Changes for 2027: BlueFirst Upgrades & New Perks


JetBlue Announces Mosaic Changes for 2027

JetBlue has announced a number of changes coming to TrueBlue Mosaic in 2027, including complimentary upgrades to the airline’s new BlueFirst cabin, new upgrade certificates, more Perks You Pick options and a few new benefits for higher-level Mosaic members.

Most of the changes take effect February 1, 2027, while complimentary BlueFirst upgrades will begin once the first BlueFirst-equipped aircraft enter service.

Complimentary Upgrades to BlueFirst

Complimentary Upgrades to BlueFirst

One of the biggest additions is complimentary space-available upgrades to BlueFirst, JetBlue’s new domestic first-class product on routes that don’t offer Mint.

Mosaic members and one companion on the same reservation will automatically be added to the upgrade list at check-in when BlueFirst seats are available. Upgrades will clear based on priority as departure gets closer. Main Base and EvenMore Base fares won’t qualify.

These upgrades are only for BlueFirst, not Mint.

Move to Mint Becomes Premium Upgrade Certificates

JetBlue is also renaming Move to Mint certificates as Premium Upgrade Certificates.

These certificates can be used for confirmed upgrades to either Mint or BlueFirst, subject to availability. Starting February 1, 2027, Mosaic 2 members will be able to choose a Premium Upgrade Certificate as a Perks You Pick benefit, while Mosaic 3 and 4 members will continue receiving them as part of their status benefits.

New Mosaic Perks You Pick

JetBlue is also refreshing the Perks You Pick menu.

If you choose the points option at every Mosaic level, you could pick up as many as 70,000 bonus TrueBlue points by Mosaic 4. JetBlue Premier cardholders will also get some additional choices, including the ability to gift Mosaic status and choose a Companion Pass statement credit at higher Mosaic levels.

New Mosaic Signature Perks

JetBlue is adding two new perks for higher-tier Mosaic members.

Mosaic 2 members will get a pet fee waiver as an automatic status benefit.

Eligible JetBlue Premier Card members with Mosaic 3 or Mosaic 4 status will earn 5X total TrueBlue points at restaurants and grocery stores on up to $50,000 in combined purchases per calendar year. That includes the normal 2X earnings plus an additional 3X from the benefit.

Some Perks Are Going Away

A few current Perks You Pick options will be retired.

You can still select and use these through January 31, 2027:

  • Mint Suite Priority
  • $99 statement credit with select JetBlue credit cards
  • FoundersCard membership
  • IHG status
  • Pet Fee Waiver as a selectable perk

Mosaic Qualification Isn’t Changing

Mosaic qualification levels will remain the same:

  • Mosaic 1: 50 Tiles
  • Mosaic 2: 100 Tiles
  • Mosaic 3: 150 Tiles
  • Mosaic 4: 250 Tiles

Ackman says Fannie-Freddie release is ‘politically critical’



Bill Ackman called on the Trump administration to release Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship, warning that a Democrat-controlled government could weaponize the entities against Republicans. 

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It is “absolutely politically critical for Fannie and Freddie to be released from conservatorship before the end of the Trump Administration,” Ackman said in a CNBC interview Thursday.

READ MORE: Bessent puts GSE exit on 2027-2028 agenda, boosting shares

Shares of Fannie and Freddie surged following the comments, rising as much as 22% and 25% in New York trading.

Ackman, whose Pershing Square has long held shares in the mortgage giants, said the positions have been a significant drag on the firm’s performance. 

Shares of Fannie and Freddie have tumbled around 60% this year as investors have grown impatient about the release of the firms from government control. Ackman said he remains “very bullish” on Fannie and Freddie. 

READ MORE: GSEs seek to support lenders with efficiencies as rates rise

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week suggested the government may not address the mortgage giants’ ownership structure until 2027 or 2028 and said protecting mortgage rates remains the administration’s priority.



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Best Student Loan Refinance Rates for October 22, 2026: Credible Leads At 3.95%


Student loan refinance rates have held continued to hold even as the Fed has raised rates. As of October 22, 2026, student loan refinance lenders are offering fixed rates as low as 3.95% APR and variable rates starting as low as 3.96% APR, depending on credit profile, loan type, income, and repayment term.

Credible is offering the lowest variable rate loans starting at 3.96% APR and MEFA and Credible are tied for the lowest fixed rate loans starting at 3.95% APR.

For borrowers with private student loans especially, refinancing to lower your interest rate can save you thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.

💰 Today’s Best Student Loan Refinance Rates At a Glance

Here are the best student loan refinance rates today:

Lender

Fixed APR

Variable APR

Credible

3.95% – 10.65%

3.96% – 11.01%

Earnest

4.45% – 9.99%

5.88% – 9.99%

ELFI

4.29% – 9.19%

4.74% – 9.44%

LendKey

4.28% – 9.24%

4.34% – 9.39%

Splash

4.29% – 11.37%

4.74% – 11.37%

1. Credible – Credible is a marketplace of student loan lenders that has some options you may not be able to find anywhere else. You can also get up to a $1,000 gift card bonus if you refinance through their platform. You can get variable rates as low as 3.96% APR. Read our full Credible review.

2. Earnest – Earnest is one of the best known online student loan lenders and they have been offering consistently competitive rates for years. Right now, you can get the lowest fixed rate APR at 4.45%. Read our full Earnest student loans review.

3. ELFI – ELFI is one of the oldest student loan lenders, and offers competitive rates, along with a bonus offer of up to $599 if you refinance a student loan with them. You can get rates as low as 4.29% APR. Read our full ELFI Student Loans Review.

4. LendKey – LendKey is a private lender that pools money from community banks and credit unions to offer lower rate student loans. They are also offering up to a $750 bonus if you refinance a student loan. You can get rates as low as 3.98% APR. Read our full LendKey review.

5. Splash – Splash is a student loan marketplace as well that offers some lenders that Credible doesn’t.They have a fixed rate offer starting at 3.99% APR. Furthermore, you can up to a $500 bonus if you refinance with Splash. Read our full Splash Student Loans review.

You can find a full list of the best student loan refinance lenders here >>

Why Should You Refinance Your Student Loan?

Refinancing replaces one or more existing loans with a new private loan — ideally at a lower interest rate.

Borrowers typically refinance to:

  • Reduce their monthly payments
  • Lower their overall interest cost
  • Combine multiple loans into one
  • Shorten or extend repayment terms

Refinancing can make sense for private loan borrowers or federal borrowers who no longer need federal benefits such as income-driven repayment or forgiveness. Remember, refinancing a federal loan will cause you to lose federal benefits like student loan forgiveness!

For example, refinancing a $60,000 loan from 7.50% to 5.50% over 10 years saves roughly $7,000 in interest.

Fixed vs. Variable Rates: Which Should You Choose?

There’s a lot of uncertainty that borrowers don’t like with variable rates, which can make sense, but in a declining rate environment, it also opens the potential for future savings. Here’s what to know:

  • Fixed rates stay the same for the life of the loan, offering predictable monthly payments. They’re better for borrowers who plan to repay over many years.
  • Variable rates can change with market conditions, starting lower but carrying risk if the Fed raises rates again. They can make sense for borrowers who expect to pay off loans quickly.

Most private lenders allow you to check rates without affecting your credit score. Always compare both options before signing.

What To Know Before Refinancing

Before refinancing your student loans, make sure you understand exactly what you’re signing up for.

  • Loss of federal benefits: Once refinanced, federal loans are no longer eligible for PSLF, IBR, or other income-driven plans.
  • Cosigner options: A creditworthy cosigner can unlock lower rates. Check if the lender offers cosigner release after a set number of on-time payments.
  • Term flexibility: Many lenders allow terms from 5 to 20 years; shorter terms usually mean lower rates.
  • Autopay discounts: Most lenders offer a 0.25% rate reduction when you enroll in automatic payments.
  • Fees: The best refinance lenders charge no origination fees or prepayment penalties.

How We Track And Verify Student Loan Rates

At The College Investor, our editorial team reviews student loan rates daily from more than a dozen major lenders. We verify data using official lender disclosures, regulatory filings, and real-time rate sheets.

We only include lenders offering loans to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. All rates are updated regularly and represent the lowest available APRs with autopay discounts applied.

Our coverage is independent and not influenced by compensation. While we may earn a referral fee when you open a loan through certain links, this never affects our editorial recommendations. Our goal is simple: to help you find the most affordable path to borrow responsibly.

FAQs

Can you refinance federal student loans?

Yes, but doing so converts them into private loans, meaning you’ll lose access to forgiveness and income-driven plans.

How often can you refinance?

There’s no limit – you can refinance multiple times as long as you qualify for better terms.

Does refinancing hurt your credit?

A small, temporary drop in your credit score may occur after the hard inquiry, but steady payments improve your score over time.

Do refinance rates change daily?

Yes, lenders adjust rates frequently based on market conditions and Treasury yields.

Is there a best time to refinance?

The best time is when your credit and income qualify you for significantly better rates than your current loans.

Disclosures

Earnest

Earnest Loans are made by Earnest Operations LLC. Earnest Operations LLC, NMLS #1204917. 300 Frank H. Ogawa Plaza, Suite 340, Oakland 94612. California Financing Law License 6054788. Visit www.earnest.com/licenses for a full list of licensed states. For California residents: Loans will be arranged or made pursuant to a California Financing Law License.

Earnest loans are serviced by Earnest Operations LLC with support from Higher Education Loan Authority of the State of Missouri (MOHELA) (NMLS# 1442770). Earnest LLC and its subsidiaries, including Earnest Operations LLC, are not sponsored by agencies of the United States of America.

These examples provide estimates based on payments beginning immediately upon loan disbursement. Variable annual percentage rate (“APR”): A $10,000 loan with a 20-year term (240 monthly payments of $101.46) and a 10.74% APR would result in a total estimated payment amount of $24,350.40. For a variable loan, after your starting rate is set, your rate will then vary with the market. Fixed APR: A $10,000 loan with a 20-year term (240 monthly payments of $101.46) and a 10.74% APR would result in a total estimated payment amount of $24,350.40. Your actual repayment terms may vary.

Actual rate will vary based on your financial profile. Fixed annual percentage rates (APR) range from 4.20% APR to 10.24% APR (3.95% – 9.99% with .25% auto pay discount). Variable annual percentage rates (APR) range from 6.13% APR to 10.24% APR (5.88% – 9.99% with .25% auto pay discount). Earnest variable interest rate student loan refinance loans are based on a publicly available index, the 30-day Average Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The variable rate is based on the rate published on the 25th day, or the next business day, of the preceding calendar month, rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percent. The rate will not increase more than once a month, but there is no limit on the amount that the rate could increase at one time. Please note, we are not able to offer variable rate loans in AK, IL, MN, MS, NH, OH, TN, and TX. Our lowest rates are only available for our most credit qualified borrowers and requires selection of our shortest term offered and enrollment in our .25% auto pay discount from a checking or savings account. Enrolling in autopay is not required as a condition for approval.

nmlsconsumeraccess.org

© 2026 Earnest LLC. All rights reserved.

Splash Financial

See disclaimers at: https://www.splashfinancial.com/disclaimers/

Splash Financial, Inc. (NMLS #1630038), licensed by the DFPI under California Financing Law, license # 60DBO-102545

Terms and Conditions apply. Splash reserves the right to modify or discontinue products and benefits at any time without notice. Products may not be available in all states. Rates and terms are subject to change at any point prior to application submission. The information you provide is an inquiry to determine whether Splash’s lending partners can make you a loan offer. To qualify, a borrower must be a U.S. citizen or other eligible status and meet lender underwriting requirements. Lowest rates are reserved for the highest qualified borrowers and may require an autopay discount of 0.25%. Splash does not guarantee that you will receive any loan offers or that your loan application will be approved. If approved, your actual rate will be within a range of rates and will depend on a variety of factors, including term of loan, creditworthiness, income and other factors. This information is current as of January 8, 2026. You should review the benefits of your federal student loan; it may offer specific benefits that a private refinance/consolidation loan may not offer. If you work in the public sector, are in the military or taking advantage of a federal department of relief program, such as income-based repayment or public service forgiveness, you may not want to refinance, as these benefits do not transfer to private refinance/consolidation loans.

Autopay Discount. Rates listed include a 0.25% autopay discount.

Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is the cost of credit calculating the interest rate, loan amount, repayment term and the timing of payments. Fixed APR options range from 4.96% (with autopay) to 11.24% (without autopay). Variable APR options range from 4.99% (with autopay) to 11.14% (without autopay). Variable rates are derived by adding a margin to the 30-day average SOFR index, published two business days preceding such calendar month, rounded up to the nearest one hundredth of one percent (0.01% or 0.0001).

Payment Disclosure. Fixed loans feature repayment terms of 5 to 20 years. For example, the monthly payment for a sample $10,000 with an APR of 5.47% for a 12-year term would be $94.86. Variable loans feature repayment terms of 5 to 25 years. For example, the monthly payment for a sample $10,000 with an APR of 5.90% for a 15-year term would be $83.85.

Bonus Disclosure. Terms and conditions apply. Offer is subject to lender approval. To receive the offer, you must: (1) be refinancing over either $50,000, $100,000 or $200,000 in student loans depending on the channel partner that is providing the bonus offer (2) register and/or apply through the referral link you were given; (3) complete a loan application with Splash Financial; (4) have and provide a valid US address to receive bonus; (5) and meet Splash Financial’s underwriting criteria. Once conditions are met and the loan has been disbursed, you will receive your welcome bonus via a check to your submitted address within 90-120 calendar days. Bonuses that are not redeemed within 180 calendar days of the date they were made available to the recipient may be subject to forfeit. Bonus amounts of $600 or greater in a single calendar year may be reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as miscellaneous income to the recipient on Form 1099-MISC in the year received as required by applicable law. Recipient is responsible for any applicable federal, state or local taxes associated with receiving the bonus offer; consult your tax advisor to determine applicable tax consequences. Splash reserves the right to change or terminate the offer at any time with or without notice. Bonus Offer is for new customers only.

Editor: Colin Graves

Reviewed by: Richelle Hawley

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