• Key takeaway: Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the central bank, is now officially the chair of the Federal Reserve. 
• Expert quote: “I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job.” — President Donald Trump
• What’s at stake: Warsh takes the reins of the central bank at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy, as employment data sends mixed signals and inflation shows signs of rising amid the Iran war and tariff pressures. Those developments have added uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policy.

President Donald Trump presided over the administration of the oath of office for Kevin Warsh as he became the chair of the Federal Reserve Board in a ceremony at the White House Friday morning. 

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Trump said at the event that no one was better qualified than Warsh to lead the central bank, which he praised as “a pillar of the world financial system and the most important central bank anywhere in the world, with a history stretching back more than 100 years.” 

Trump added that he wanted Warsh to maintain the central bank’s independence and pursue his own objectives as leader of the U.S. central bank.

“Honestly — I really mean this, this is not meant in any other way — I want Kevin to be totally independent,” Trump said. “I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job.”

Warsh said after taking his oath of office, which was administered by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, that he viewed his mission as Fed chair as one aimed at bolstering prosperity for all Americans. 

“While I’m not naive about the challenges we face, I believe, Mr. President, these years can bring unmatched prosperity that will raise living standards for Americans from all walks of life, and the Fed has something to do with it,” Warsh said. “Our mandate at the Fed is to promote price stability and maximum employment. When we pursue those aims with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, growth stronger, real take-home pay higher, and America can be more prosperous, and no less important, America’s place in the world more secure.”

As chair, Warsh will oversee meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy and seeks to balance the central bank’s dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment.

Warsh takes the helm of the Federal Reserve System at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy. Employment data has sent mixed signals, while inflation has shown signs of rising amid trade policies and the war in Iran. Together, those factors have clouded the outlook for monetary policy, with risks present to both the employment and price stability elements of the Fed’s monetary policy mandate. 

But the ultimate complicating factor is the president himself, who has pressured the central bank to lower interest rates, a preference he has long expressed but that he has been more strenuous in expressing since taking office last year, raising concerns that the White House is looking to dictate monetary policy.

During his confirmation process, Warsh pledged to make independent judgments on monetary policy, though he could face pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates.

Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21, Warsh rejected the notion that he would bow to political pressure, saying he had not committed to Trump that he would lower interest rates, though he acknowledged their views on monetary policy often align.

Warsh also has promised changes at the central bank. Among his proposals is shrinking the Fed’s $6.7 billion balance sheet and relying more heavily on traditional interest-rate policy to manage the economy. He also has called for changes to the Fed’s communications strategy, arguing policymakers provide too much forward guidance on the future path of interest rates.

The Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed chair in a 54 to 45 vote on May 13. All Republicans voted in favor of Warsh’s appointment, along with one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., did not vote.  

With Warsh stepping into the role, Jerome Powell will step down as chair after leading the central bank for eight years, but will remain on the Board of Governors. His term as governor runs through January 2028.

During his final post-meeting news conference in April, Powell said he chose to remain on the board amid concerns the Trump administration could revive scrutiny over renovation costs tied to the Fed’s headquarters project.

A Department of Justice review launched in January was dropped April 24, around the same time Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., continued to press that the matter is an obstacle to supporting Warsh’s confirmation.

Despite the end of the Justice Department review, Powell said legal and political pressure on the Fed remains a concern and stressed that his decision to stay on the board is intended to help preserve the institution’s independence.

“I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors,” Powell said. “It is so important for the economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend, over time, on a central bank that operates that way: free of political influence.”

It’s no secret mortgage rates are in a bad place right now.

But instead of talking about that all day, let’s talk about how can they get better…

Ultimately, the quickest path lower is a peace deal in the Middle East.  Note that I said quickest, not easiest. It’s hard to sit here and say that it’ll be easy.

And it’s also important to point out that they always rise faster than they fall, so it’ll take time even if there’s a resolution there.

The other main component is labor, but you don’t want weakness there because it hurts the housing market, not to mention the individual who loses their job.

Mortgage Rates Need a Peace Deal to Move Lower

Ultimately, mortgage rates need peace if they’re to move back to their recent lows.

That’s why mortgage rates rose to begin with, so it’s really the only way for them to erase this big move higher.

If you recall, the 30-year fixed had been at 3.5-year lows prior to the conflict at the end of February and early March.

Just as we finally got our long-awaited sub-6% mortgage rate, poof, it was gone in a flash.

It was the cruelest of scenarios, but kind of what you expect if you’ve been around the mortgage industry long enough…

When things finally start looking good, they seem to disappear just like that. And that’s exactly what happened.

While there was some hope in April after a bad March, May is when things finally got real for mortgage rates.

I had been warning folks that things were going to get worse, and that the $100+ barrel oil was going to find its way into inflation numbers and push mortgage rates higher.

But for a while, everyone was attempting to “look through” it all and bank on it being transitory.

We were also told repeatedly that the whole Iranian operation would be wrapped up in days, or a week, or just a few more days.

Now it’s feeling a lot like a quagmire with no end in sight. And the market finally decided to take it seriously.

That’s why you have the near-7% mortgage rates again. Reality set in.

So it’s pretty clear the best and fastest way to get lower mortgage rates is for the U.S. and Iran to come to some sort of deal. And quickly.

Good Chance Mortgage Rates Get Worse Before They Get Better

Now before things improve, they could get worse. It’s just one of those things where the trend is not your friend.

And it takes time for a reversal to take place. In the meantime, you get even higher rates.

So much higher can they go you ask?

Well, for a while I’ve been pointing to 6.875%, maybe a low 7-handle for the 30-year fixed. That looks fairly likely at this juncture.

After all, we’re around 6.75% now so it’s only an .125% to a .25% away. Yikes!

It seemed crazy a few weeks ago, when I first started bringing this up, but now it’s probably looking like a rather conservative estimate.

Funny how that works.

There Will Be Good Days and Bad Days for Rates

Just remember that mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line up or down.

There will always be ebbs and flows, good days, bad days, good weeks and bad weeks.

That means there will be opportunity at times to lock in a lower mortgage rate and you’ll need to stay vigilant if you’re shopping rates.

In addition, remember that when there’s a lot of volatility in mortgage rates, rate dispersion is higher.

This means there’s a wider range of rates being offered by banks, lenders, credit unions, etc. So be sure to gather multiple quotes and negotiate even more aggressively!

Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.

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