![[Targeted] Square Business Credit Card 10% Sign Up Bonus ($10k Spend/$1k Back)](https://globalinvestmentstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/square-business-1024x461-768x346.jpg "[Targeted] Square Business Credit Card 10% Sign Up Bonus ($10k Spend/$1k Back)")
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Rocket Mortgage is mounting its latest challenge against United Wholesale Mortgage’s controversial “All-In” policy with a new broker transition program and permanent base-pricing cuts, designed to recruit brokers away.
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Rocket Pro, the lender’s wholesale channel, announced Tuesday the launch of a program, called Moving Squad, that will help brokers transition their business from competing wholesale lenders, particularly UWM and its ultimatum policy, also known as the All-In initiative. The rule, established in 2021, proclaimed UWM wouldn’t work with brokers who also conducted business with Rocket and Fairway Home Mortgage
Rocket said brokers have expressed interest in moving on from
“The word ‘ultimatum’ flies in the face of what makes brokers so powerful and unique, which is choice,” Austin Niemiec, chief revenue officer at Rocket, told National Mortgage News. “It’s sad and embarrassing for our industry that brokers have to worry about being sued when they send a client, an American family, to Rocket because our pricing’s better, but it’s the reality of the ultimatum and why it’s unacceptable.”
Rocket has seen more brokers move from UWM to its wholesale channel in the last 90 days than the previous 12 months combined, largely due to UWM’s rising prices, Niemiec said.
When a broker switches to Rocket, they are assigned a moving squad, which consists of a director of growth, a crew leader, an account executive and a trainer. The team helps onboard loans, answers questions and teaches Rocket’s systems, processes and tools.
“The goal is from ‘Hello, meet your moving squad,’ to first loan submitted in under 10 days,” Niemiec said. “That’s how quickly we can get folks approved, trained up and ready to originate.”
Niemiec made it no secret the program comes as a response to UWM’s initiative, and current Rocket partners who help a UWM broker leave the lender can earn up to a $10,000 cash bonus.
UWM views this announcement as an admission Rocket cannot compete with its wholesale operation.
“After more than a decade of brokers overwhelmingly choosing UWM, it appears Rocket has decided cash incentives are the latest attempt to buy what they’ve been unable to earn,” a UWM spokesperson said. “Independent mortgage brokers are savvy business owners who know the difference between a short-term bounty and a long-term partner.”
Brendan McKay, president and co-founder of the Brokers Action Coalition, said UWM’s sentiment would be valid in an open market.
“The ultimatum’s bullshit. … It has completely divided the broker community, which is frankly tragic,” he said. “Talking about the ability to compete when you’ve completely tilted the playing field is disingenuous.”
The lender also announced its 60-basis-point purchase and refinance credits are now permanently part of its base pricing. This applies across conventional, Federal Housing Administration and Department of Veterans Affairs loans.
Niemiec said this originated from the broker community’s wants for simple, transparent, consistent and aggressive pricing, not gimmicks.
“It’s incredibly aggressive,” McKay said. “Price always matters, but especially when you’re trying to ramp up competition in a situation where brokers are forced to make a decision like this. The $10,000 is a very flashy headline, and it is impactful, but pricing always wins.”
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Private credit has grown from a niche institutional asset class into a $2.6 trillion global market and a major source of corporate financing. Driven by post–Global Financial Crisis regulatory reform, bank retrenchment, and investor demand for income, it has become a central feature of modern capital markets and is increasingly reaching wealth management clients and sophisticated retail investors through semi-liquid funds, non-traded business development companies (BDCs), interval funds, and digital platforms.
As this transformation accelerates, understanding how private credit is structured, how fund design shapes investor outcomes, and what expanding retail access means has become essential for investment professionals.
The world’s richest have amassed an eye-watering stockpile of $15.1 trillion—and their heirs are set to take over a third of the global billionaire fortune in the coming decade. Women and Gen Xers are set to take home the largest slice of the pie.
About 5,000 spouses and adult children will inherit $6.6 trillion of billionaire wealth by 2035, according to a recent report from wealth-intelligence firm Altrata.
More and more billionaires are inheriting part of their wealth thanks to the growing frequency of inter-generational estate transfers and family gifting. And within the next 10 years, new billionaire records could be broken as thousands more receive wealth from the current group of 3,795 billionaires—an all-time record.
Looking ahead, women stand to gain the most from the great wealth transfer. Only 13% of current billionaires are women—but as men over the age of 60 dominate the ultra-rich cohort, more than 1,235 female spouses (representing 90% of billionaire partners) will inherit a sizable chunk in the next decade. Altrata says the mega-wealthy gender gap will narrow over time, and as their fortunes grow, there will be “greater diversity” in decision-making and ownership.
“[Rising female billionaire representation] could also spur more entrepreneurial activity and venture capital involvement among the wealthy female class, drive an expansion of female-focused wealth management services, and influence large-scale philanthropic endeavors,” the report says, adding that billionaire women are more involved in non-profit sectors than men are.
Thousands of others stand to ride the wave of the trillion-dollar wealth transfer, including billionaires’ siblings, grandchildren, and organizations tied to philanthropic endeavors like non-profits and education institutions.
But their adult children will be some of the biggest beneficiaries—especially Gen Xers.
Baby boomer billionaires spent decades grinding it out and stockpiling their successes—and now, their grown-up children are getting in on the action. Altrata found that 23% of expected adult child heirs, typically aged around 48, already work with their ultra-rich parents in the primary family business. That means the latchkey generation is now poised to inherit a massive share of that wealth.
“Attention is often focused on young millennial and Gen Z heirs, but the Gen X demographic is by far the most numerous in line to inherit from their wealthy parent(s),” the Altrata report says.
Rather than simply receiving cash deposits, adult heirs are set to take on a combination of real estate and shares in listed companies, private businesses, and investment portfolios.
Then there’s carrying on their parents’ entrepreneurial legacy: Some billionaire children will lead family businesses that have passed down through generations, from manufacturing and consumer goods to finance and retail.
And when wealth falls into their laps, these billionaire heirs are expected to shake things up.
Young and middle-aged inheritors are more digitally savvy and activism-oriented than older generations. New technologies, responses to climate change, and “impact investing” could be huge areas of interest for these rich adult children, Altrata explains, which could run awry with how their older parents want to spend their fortunes.
As thousands of spouses and adult children step into wealth in the coming decade, they’ll be up against major headwinds.
Altrata predicts that “further erosion of the global rules-based order,” climate pressures, tech transformation, and changes to the global economy in the AI era will shape the years ahead.
“This substantial transfer of family wealth is set to occur in a world of rising complexity, tense geopolitics, and major environmental and technological change,” the report says. “A more unpredictable multipolar world, with shifting centers of power and influence, will complicate the succession-planning and wealth-preservation strategies of the global billionaire class.”
However, there is still opportunity in the chaos of the great wealth transfer. Altrata says that volatility gives next-gen billionaires new opportunities in business, investing, and philanthropy.
As trillions of dollars change hands, inheritors won’t just take on their family fortunes—they’ll also have the chance to reshape how that wealth is invested, spent, and put to work.
“Europe has been worrying about slowing growth since the start of this century,” Mario Draghi said in 2024. “Various strategies to raise rates have come and gone, but the trend has remained unchanged.”
There is a tendency for gloom to descend when thinking about Europe’s economic and business prospects. In comparison with America, the Gulf and Asia, the mature markets of the EU and the rest of the continent have languished. Since the financial crisis, GDP growth in the euro-area has averaged 0.9% a year. In the U.S., it is above 2%.
Being European, overdoing the downsides comes naturally. We are a broadly skeptical and conservative bunch, not overly impressed by flamboyant displays of confidence.
Admittedly the continent has labored as the AI hyper-scalers of America and China have produced products (and valuations) that make the eyes pop. Progress towards a European capital markets union is lumpy. The effects of the U.K. leaving the EU are still being felt. The EU’s Digital Markets Act has been criticized for being both anti-consumer and anti-growth.
There are, though, plenty of bright spots. On September 16, we will reveal our annual Fortune 500 Europe, the list of the 500 largest companies across the continent by revenue (here’s a link to last year’s list). These are the powerhouses of the European economy, led last year by Volkswagen, Shell and Glencore. The 2026 index will be a treasure trove of statistics on profits, revenues and growth—with many lessons from the successes of those listed.
On the same day, C-suite leaders from across Europe and the Middle East will be gathering in London for Fortune CEO Forum to talk about growth and share successes and best practices. Leaders from Anthropic and OpenAI will be in the room with the CEOs of Ferrari and Volvo Cars U.K. The U.K. chairman of energy giant EDF will sit alongside board members from NatWest and the in-country CEO of Société Générale. Defense sector policymakers will discuss infrastructure investment with the likes of Honeywell and Tech Mahindra. Entrepreneurs from banking, AI delivery and telecoms will talk about future opportunities. From Microsoft to Shell, C-suite executives representing nearly $2trn of wealth will be in the room.
On September 16 C-suite leaders from across Europe and the Middle East will be gathering in London for Fortune CEO Forum to talk about growth and share successes and best practices.
Alongside the data from the Fortune 500 index, there are other reasons for optimism. Europe’s Innovation Scorecard, a test of research and investment trends compiled by the European Commission, revealed that innovation performance has increased by 11.6 percentage points since 2019. The U.K., Europe’s second-largest economy, sits happily above the EU average by more than 30 percentage points. “Europe continues to perform well,” the most recent scorecard said.
The continent boasts some of the greatest universities in the world, is an AI-intellectual powerhouse, has booming financial centers of which many are rightly envious, best-in-class manufacturing from cars to windmills and leads the way on energy sustainability research and non-fossil fuel production. Global leaders flock to Europe for its unique position, geographically and politically, between China, the rest of Asia, the Gulf, and America. Education and healthcare systems are in the top tier. The U.K. wants to see closer co-operation with the rest of the EU.
In a research note at the end of July, Goldman Sachs said that Europe’s economic growth had been “more resilient than expected’ given the energy price shock which followed the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“We see several reasons for this resilience,” the note said, “The economy’s energy dependence has declined. Fiscal policy supports growth [with] rising defense spending across Europe. Real household income growth remains robust, and labor markets have remained resilient despite sub-potential growth, with the unemployment rate at an all-time low.”
As a continent keen on saving, consumer confidence remains positive despite stubbornly high inflation. Most families are comfortably liquid and spending is continuing to rise. Incomes are up without the deleterious effects on wealth equality seen in the U.S.
“We estimate that broad financial conditions—including bank lending conditions and the European Central Bank’s policy stance—point to a positive impulse to growth,” the bank said.
Business leaders want to turn that impulse into a trend and know that collaboration across the continent and globally is key. Policy makers will also need to play their part.
“We must take a new stance towards cooperation,” Draghi said. “In removing obstacles, harmonizing rules and coordinating policies, our confidence that we will succeed in moving forward should be strong.” The plan is clear. Now it is time for the execution phase.
For the latest coverage and updates from Fortune CEO Forum, as well as insights into the companies on our list, visit this page.
Miguel Herculano, Santiago Montoya-Blandon and Jorge Pinheiro
Financial conditions indices are widely used by central banks and policymakers, including in the UK, to summarise and monitor in real-time the state of financial conditions in an economy. But most indices focus on what happens to average conditions, rather than the risks policymakers are often most concerned about – such as sharp downturns in economic activity or surges in inflation. We develop novel targeted financial conditions indices (TFCIs), using US data, that focus directly on measuring and forecasting these risks. Instead of asking which financial variables move together on average, the approach identifies which ones matter for specific outcomes. We show that different risks are linked to different financial factors – and that focusing on these can improve the forecasting performance of these key macroeconomic targets.
Financial systems are typically assessed using measures that focus on what happens most of the time or on an average basis. But crises are defined by the opposite: they are shaped by rare, extreme events that sit in the tails of the distribution. Financial conditions indices (FCIs) are widely used by central banks and policymakers to summarise and monitor the stance of the financial system. Most FCIs are built to track the average co-movement across financial variables and markets. That makes them useful for predicting the central tendency of macroeconomic outcomes – but much less so for understanding the extreme outcomes policymakers tend to worry about most.
In practice, risks are rarely symmetric. When it comes to real activity, policymakers are often concerned with downside tail risks – sharp contractions rather than average growth. For inflation or unemployment, concern may lie in the upper tail – unexpectedly high inflation (inflation-at-risk), downside risks to growth (growth-at-risk), or spikes in joblessness. Yet standard FCIs, often constructed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA, a statistical method that summarises the common movement across many financial variables), are agnostic about which part of the distribution matters. They summarise what moves together, not what drives tail events.
This blog introduces a new approach that starts from the opposite direction. Rather than asking which financial variables comove on average, it asks which ones matter for specific macroeconomic risks of interest. We construct targeted financial conditions indices (TFCIs) that are explicitly designed to predict tail risk of key macroeconomic variables – such as the lower tail of growth or the upper tail of inflation.
The key insight is simple. If the policy question is about tail risk of a key target, the conditioning information should be tailored both to that tail and target from the outset. Using a quantile-based extension of the three-pass regression filter of Kelly and Pruitt (2015), the method extracts financial factors that are specific not only to the macroeconomic variable of interest, but also to the quantile being forecast, rather than the variation that dominates on average.
Once we do this, the picture of financial conditions changes meaningfully. The financial drivers of downside risks to activity look different from those associated with upside risks to inflation or unemployment. In other words, there is no single ‘financial conditions’ factor – there are multiple, tail-specific ones, each with distinct economic content.
Why targeting tails changes the picture
In practice, this is done by adapting an existing factor-based approach so that it focuses on specific parts of the distribution – using quantile methods rather than standard average-based techniques.
Put differently, standard methods ask which financial variables move together most strongly. The targeted approach asks which combination of financial variables is most informative about the specific tail risk policymakers care about. Those are different questions – and, as we show, they lead to different answers.
What the data shows
We apply this approach to a large panel of 105 monthly financial indicators, spanning credit, leverage, and risk measures in the United States, and covering the same data set used in the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index. We examine three macroeconomic targets – CPI inflation, industrial production, and unemployment – across multiple forecast horizons and across parts of the distribution. The focal tail is the part of the distribution that the index is designed to capture. For example, on inflation, we focus on the upper tail (the highest inflation outcomes), allowing the index to identify the financial signals that matter most when inflation is unusually high rather than when it is close to average.
A first key result is that targeting materially changes the economic content of the extracted factor.
Chart 1: Full-sample focal-tail TFCIs versus PCA
Notes: The focal tails are 𝜏 = 0.90 for inflation and unemployment and 𝜏 = 0.10 for industrial production.
For downside risks to industrial production, the targeted index loads heavily on variables related to delinquency, volatility, and money-market conditions. By contrast, for upside risks to inflation, the index places greater weight on commodity prices, term spreads, and liquidity-sensitive credit variables. The full list of variables can be found in the same data source above, in the ‘Contributions‘ file.
Chart 2: Top predictor-level contributors for the focal tails
Notes: Bar length is the mean absolute contribution of each financial series to the corresponding TFCI. To describe a few, SPOVX is the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index, COMMODLIQ is the COMEX gold/NYMEX WTI futures market depth, and the BONDGR is the New US corporate debt issuance relative to its 12-month moving average.
This distinction matters. It implies that ‘financial conditions’ cannot be summarised by a single metric if the goal is to understand different macroeconomic risks. The financial signals associated with downside risks to activity are not the same as those associated with upside risks to inflation or unemployment.
Does targeting improve forecasting performance?
We next assess whether these targeted indices improve the ability to forecast macroeconomic outcomes. We measure forecast accuracy using a standard metric (more specifically, tick loss) where lower values indicate better performance.
In practical terms, the question is whether targeting specific risks – such as periods of very high inflation – helps us make better predictions than focusing on average outcomes.
The results show that targeted indices can deliver meaningful improvements in forecasting performance, particularly for inflation. For example, when forecasting the upper tail of inflation – periods when inflation is unusually high – the targeted index consistently produces more accurate forecasts than both a simple benchmark model and one based on a standard FCI. In several cases, the improvement is sizeable and statistically significant at 1%.
For industrial production and unemployment, the improvements are more nuanced. The targeted indices frequently outperform the autoregressive benchmark and, in some cases, also improve on PCA based measures – particularly at shorter horizons or for specific parts of the distribution. But the gains are not uniform across all settings.
This pattern is informative. Targeting does not automatically dominate traditional approaches in every context. Instead, its advantages are most pronounced when the forecasting objective is closely aligned with a particular tail risk.
Why this matters for policymakers
For policymakers, FCIs are valuable because they provide a compact summary of a large and complex financial system. But the relevant summary depends on the question being asked.
If the objective is to monitor broad financial conditions, a conventional FCI may suffice. But if the objective is to assess risks – such as the probability of a sharp economic downturn or an inflation spike – then a more targeted measure may be more informative.
The results in this paper suggest that tailoring financial conditions indices to specific macroeconomic risks can change both the interpretation of financial conditions and the inferred drivers of those risks. This can, in turn, support more targeted policy analysis and communication.
Although the empirical application uses US financial and macroeconomic data, the broader lesson is not specific to the United States. Policymakers in the UK and elsewhere often focus on risks that are concentrated in particular parts of the distribution, such as periods of unusually high inflation or sharp economic downturns. While the specific financial indicators associated with those risks may differ across countries, the framework illustrates how measures of financial conditions can be tailored to the policy question at hand, helping to identify the financial signals that are most relevant for assessing particular macroeconomic risks.
Conclusion
The central message is straightforward. If policymakers care about tail risks, the tools used to measure financial conditions should reflect that focus.
Targeted financial conditions indices provide one way to do this, by identifying the financial signals that matter for specific macroeconomic outcomes rather than relying on a single, broad measure.
In doing so, they shift the focus from average conditions to the risks that are most relevant for policy decisions – where financial conditions may matter most.
Miguel Herculano is a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Financial Economics at the University of Glasgow, Santiago Montoya-Blandon is a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Economics at the University of Glasgow and Jorge Pinheiro works in the Bank’s Banking Capital Policy Division.
If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.
Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.
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Southwest today unveiled plans for its first-ever airport lounge network, marking the next chapter of the Southwest Airlines® travel experience.
Southwest is partnering with Chase to bring together Southwest’s signature Hospitality and the success of the Chase Sapphire Reserve Lounge Network℠ to create a premium and welcoming airport experience. Each lounge will offer a sophisticated design, locally-inspired dining, high-quality amenities, and valuable travel benefits that are offered today in the Chase Sapphire Reserve Lounge Network.
“Southwest Airlines has built one of the most trusted brands in travel1 by delivering authentic Hospitality that Customers value. Our lounges will be a natural extension of that experience, offering Customers a place to relax and experience the Southwest brand in a new way,” said Tony Roach, Executive Vice President, Chief Customer & Brand Officer at Southwest Airlines. “The introduction of a lounge network represents a strategic investment in Rapid Rewards and deepens our 30-year partnership with Chase.”
Construction has begun on the first four Southwest lounges, and the first guests are expected to be welcomed in late 2027. These locations include:
This is just the beginning of a broader footprint across the Southwest system, with at least seven more lounges planned to open over the next several years across high-demand business and leisure markets.
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On the commercial and multifamily side, bridge and fix-and-flip financing continues to matter for investors moving quickly on value-add deals. Brokers who can speak fluently across that full menu, rather than defaulting to one product, are the ones major lenders are betting on, and why brokers should lean in too.
“Investors don’t want a broker who only knows one loan type. They want someone who can look at the whole picture, the property, the entity, the exit, and tell them which structure actually fits.”
This is a relationship business as much as a product business. Knowing the underwriting mechanics of a DSCR loan matters, but so does understanding rental comps, cap rate trends and how vacancy is moving in the submarkets your clients are buying into, the kind of regional valuation challenges that trip up lenders unfamiliar with local multifamily markets. In a market like Los Angeles, where regulatory conditions and rent control rules can shape a deal as much as the numbers do, that local knowledge is not optional. The brokers who do this well tend to build a bench of private and non-bank lending partners, because no single lender fits every investor profile, and they stay close to the property managers, 1031 exchange intermediaries and commercial real estate brokers who see these deals before anyone else does. That referral network matters more here than in almost any other part of the business, because investor clients tend to keep buying, and a broker who structures the first deal well usually gets the next five.
The friction usually shows up in three places. Valuation gets harder when part of a property’s income comes from short-term rental platforms rather than a signed lease, and lenders vary widely in how much of that income they will credit. Timelines get tight when a client is coming out of a 1031 exchange and has a hard deadline to close. And ownership structure adds another layer, since most serious investors are buying through an LLC or limited partnership, which changes documentation and, in some cases, pricing. The best approach is to get ahead of all three early: line up a lender who explicitly underwrites short-term rental income before you need one, build closing timelines around the exchange deadline rather than a generic 30-day estimate, and confirm vesting and entity requirements at application, not at the closing table.
None of this is complicated in theory. It just rewards brokers who have done the homework before the client calls, not after.
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