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America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)


Dave:
We hear constantly that the United States is millions of homes short and the answer to high housing costs is simple, build more units. This is a belief I’ve had and talked about on this show many, many times. But research from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a totally different conclusion. After comparing household growth and housing production across US markets from 2000 to 2020, they found that most places had enough total housing, calling into question a major assumption investors are using to underwrite deals and plan their portfolios. Our guest today, Kirk McClure, is a professor emeritus at the University of Kansas and one of the study’s co-authors. Today, he’s joining us to go through the research behind the headline, how the study defined a shortage, what the data actually showed, why nearly 14 million vacant homes do not automatically solve the problem, and why Kirk believes affordability is driven more by lower incomes meeting higher prices than by too few units.
I’m Dave Meyer. This is On the Market. Let’s get to it. Kirk, welcome to On the Market. Thanks so much for being here.

Kirk:
It’s a pleasure. Thanks for inviting me.

Dave:
Yeah, I’ve been looking forward to this interview for a while now. I know you were traveling all summer, but there is this narrative that’s very pervasive in the real estate world that we have a housing shortage in the United States, but your work calls that into question. So what got you interested in this topic in the first place?

Kirk:
Well, I have to tell you, I assumed that the narrative was correct. When my colleague, Alex Schwartz and I started, we were talking about the shortage and asked what seemed to be the fairly straightforward question, well, is the shortage similar across all markets of the United States? And our initial working hypothesis is that we would find a greater shortage in the so-called hot markets, the East Coast, Boston,
New York, Washington, Miami, on the West Coast, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego. And so we went about trying to quantify that and answer some questions about what it meant in terms of translation into affordability. Simply put, we couldn’t find it. So then we became very skeptical of our own work and passed it around to a few people. But let me tell you the very basics that we found. If you go to decennial census data, what we found for the period of 2000 to 2020, population grew by about 18%, 17.8 to be exact. The households grew by a greater number, 20.3%. And the quick sideline there is the only way households can grow faster than population is that there is some ample inventory of housing. Now it’s possible, unlikely, but it’s possible that the increase was drawing down the inventory of vacant units when units were not being added quickly enough.
That’s possible. But in fact, that wasn’t the case. We found from, again, 2000 to 2020, housing units grew by 21.2%. So
Housing stock grew faster than household formation, which grew faster than population. That makes it a little hard to square with the notion of a shortage. Doesn’t mean that a shortage isn’t possible. So that’s when we started to search out, did we have some sort of aggregation bias? We have a little over 900 metropolitan markets in the United States, just shy of 400 major metropolitan areas, 500 or so micropolitan, that’s the new word the Census Bureau has given us. About 140 of those metropolitan area, only one major New Orleans, and then a lot of micropolitan areas are declining in population. So we thought it possible that somehow the static stock and declining households in those lagging metropolitan areas were creating false numbers. So what we did was we took every county in the United States, we identified the counties in metropolitan areas and tracked them from 2000 to 2020.
And what we found was out of the 900, subtract out the 140 or so declining ones, take the remaining 760 some odd metropolitan areas, only 19 actually had what we would define in normal sense as a shortage, meaning the housing production had not kept pace with the rate of household
Formation.

Dave:
Interesting. So

Kirk:
That’s what surprised us. We had a little trouble going through with that and bluntly, we had a lot of pushback too, and we appreciated that. That’s helpful.

Dave:
Yeah. Okay. Well, just so everyone understands, just kind of want to explain, population is obvious as grows as a person either is born in the United States or immigrates to the United States minus the people who pass away or leave. And that one’s pretty straightforward. But household formation, I guess, or household is basically one unit of demand for somewhere to live, right? And so you can have these things move differently. So for example, if you have a family with two children and those two children each go out and rent their own single bedroom apartment, that would go from being one household to three different households. And so when you’re trying to measure demand for housing, household formation and households is a better metric than population growth. We look at this when we’re trying to figure out which markets are hot or cold or stuff like that.
What you’re showing is that the total number of units was growing faster than household formation. And so just basically on the highest possible level, you’re saying from 2000 to 2020, there were more units created than units of demand created. And so the logic would follow, how do you have a shortage in that environment? My question then is, were you starting from a shortage? Starting in 2020, was there some net deficit that preceded your research that could explain it?

Kirk:
Good question. And it’s one we worked with. One of the questions we had to surmount in this is what statisticians do is start figuring out where could the model be wrong, but our starting point was 2000. The question then was, is that a good year? We have, I think, a good strong argument for why 2000 was a good year. We had just come off a decade of pretty balanced growth through the ’90s, which I think could all agree was economically a very good time, good employment, good wage growth. Essentially, we saw the population growth, household formation and housing unit growth all track fairly close together. That’s the way a balanced market should be. There is something bad about building too few units, but equally there’s something bad about building too many units. So we are looking for that balanced growth. We found that generally for the nation making 2000 a good period.
Now I hasten to point out that there have been follow-up studies to our own. For example, that makes the argument for the New York City metropolitan area, 2000 wasn’t a real good starting point that we should look at 1990. Had we done that, we would’ve come to a slightly different conclusion on the New York metropolitan area. And I agree that there are going to be all types of these little problems, but we don’t believe we had a bad starting point. Let me give you another sort of the problems we had to reckon with. One of the most important studies that made the initial conclusion that the nation suffers from a housing shortage was from Freddie Mac. They’re a good bunch of economists over there. They do great work, but they made a decision that their starting point would be 2010. 2010, if you think about it, we just had a big bubble.
The bubble collapsed. We were going into the great recession. So their logic was that while we’re looking at the recovery period from the great recession,
Not an entirely bad assumption, but it led them to what we believe was an incorrect conclusion because for every hundred households that we form in the United States, we probably ought to build 103, 105 units. That’s to maintain a healthy inventory of vacant units. During the decade of 2000 to 2010, we built in excess of 140 units for every 100 households. So what we had was 2010 then becomes a bad starting point because there was a large overhang of units. If you only look at 2010 to 2020, then it is true that the stock grew less fast than did household formation. But when you have this huge multimillion overhang of extra units, then in fact that smooths out over the 20 year time period. So there is some disagreement on that.

Dave:
Yeah. Well, that makes sense to me because so much of the narrative around the shortage is that during the great financial crisis, builders stopped building and haven’t kept up with population growth or household formation. But if I’m getting what you’re saying is that we had sort of a glut prior to the GFC. And so even if we had a slowdown in building from whatever it was, 2010 to 2017, 2018 or whatever it got back to that normal pace, that that was just compensating for the oversupply that came. And so from your perspective, starting in 2000 makes sense because it captures the glut and then it captures the slowdown and then you get this longer period of time. All right, we got to take a quick break everyone, but we’ll be back with Kirk McClure right after this. Welcome back to On the Market. Today I’m speaking with Professor Emeritus from the University of Kansas, Kirk McClure, about his research into the housing shortage or lack thereof.
Let’s jump back in. So you mentioned Freddie Mac, that’s one source that has said that there’s a shortage, but I’ve seen other studies from NAR. I’ve seen it from, I think some of the big banks have put out some studies too. Are they all following a similar logic? They’re starting at 2010 or where else does your research differ from what they’re doing?

Kirk:
All right. Let me speak to a second approach that came out of the Moody’s team and I think theirs is especially good, but again, you have to parse out the assumptions and say, how would we guide federal housing policy in this situation? What Moody’s did is it says we find a historical rate of household formation for different cohorts. I think we all know that when people are in their 20s to early 30s, that’s the time they’re going to graduate from college, move out of mom and dad’s house, get that first job, get their first apartment, start saving, eventually become a homeowner. So we have these rates of household formation that have been true for various cohorts. By the time somebody like me retired, the likelihood that you already own is very, very high. So we’re not going to find a great deal of fluctuation that my cohort is not hurt by a slowdown in construction, but the Gen Z cohort is.
And I think that’s the nuance they brought to it. They said, “If we had household formation rates as high as we would have expected from the good decades preceding 2000, then what should be the household formation rate and what units do we need in order to satisfy that?” And I think that’s a very good approach to it.

Dave:
Are they essentially saying that household formation is lower because affordability is lower and so you have to sort of think about what would it be? If we had the level of affordability we had in the 90s, more Gen Z people would be forming households, but household formation is repressed because of low affordability.

Kirk:
Exactly.

Dave:
Okay.

Kirk:
But now here’s the difficulty of it. I’ve spent an awful lot of my career writing papers basically for HUD, for members of Congress trying to say, “Here’s how we can do our housing investments better.” The difficulty with the Moody’s study, they attribute any diminution in a household formation rate for any cohort, but especially we focus on the younger ones. They attribute that to a shortage of units. What I read for the Gen Z especially, it’s this whole problem of school was costly, so they’re coming out with debt. Units are higher now. They have a hard time finding the necessary money to make the first and last month payment just to sign a lease on a rental unit.

Dave:
So

Kirk:
They’re still living in mom’s basement. On and on with then given those demands, it’s hard to save. An awful lot of other factors are in there. If more units were there, would Gen Z have a higher household formation rate? Probably marginally.

Dave:
I

Kirk:
See. But what really needs to happen is they need jobs. You know when trying to get a mortgage, you don’t just need a job. Gig work won’t get you a mortgage. You’ve got to show steady employment. You’ve got to have the savings necessary for the down payment on and on and on. And with the 2836 rules with the banks, if you’re already suffering from high student debt and car payment on even a modest automobile, that doesn’t leave you a whole lot of room for additional mortgage debt. And then you start comparing that mortgage debt to the price of homes out there and life is tough at that end.
So I do agree with their work, but I find it hard to ascribe the low household formation rate to a shortage of housing units. I think the housing market is a pretty smart operation. A builder knows how long his units have sat on the market. The bank knows if the builder is coming in saying, “Gee, I’m having a little trouble paying off that construction loan because that unit just won’t sell.” We do have problems with, I realize historically mortgage rates don’t seem high to me, but I’m well into my 70s, so I’m accustomed to 7% mortgage

Dave:
Rates. Yeah, you’ve seen some stuff we haven’t seen in a long time.

Kirk:
But when your older brother got a 3% mortgage a few years ago, you’re still thinking that’s what you ought and that’s not going to happen.

Dave:
No, I’m with you on that for sure. So you think, yeah, it’s a confluence of factors that are slowing down household formation. It’s not this one-to-one thing where, hey, there’s less units, people are not moving in. There are other things. I buy that. I mean, I am not Gen Z, but I can see, I look at a lot of data about debt and you look at credit card debt and as you mentioned, student loan debt or just stagnating salaries for younger people, higher rates of unemployment for younger people. There’s a lot of things that are probably contributing to this. So how do you explain the current housing market then? Because, and I know there’s a lot to this with… I can give you my own theories, but in your world, if there’s not a shortage, why do we have such low affordability in the housing market and why are prices so high?

Kirk:
Well, one of the best things about our paper is that it has started other people trying to either refute its support and so forth. There’s been some follow-up work. Some economists at the Federal Reserve did a great piece. It’s an old chart that many of us looked at. If you use the Case Schiller price index as a measure of housing price, and I really believe it to be the best because if it’s very careful, you have to have two points. You have to know what a house sold for in the past, you have to know what it sold for recently, and that’s how they then figure out what constant quality homes are doing over time. We policy wonks tend to have a bad habit of saying, let’s compare that index to the median household income because that reflects that household in the middle, what their ability to spend is.
And as you might imagine, those numbers were pretty close through the ’90s. What happened with 99, 2000, prices took off. We debated for several years whether we had a bubble. By the time the bubble crashed, we all were pretty much agreeing we had a bubble. The index came back down and more or less came close to that median value. Again, that was the global financial crisis. It wiggled around for a little bit, but it’s taken off. Now comes the question, do we have a second bubble? Maybe yes, maybe no. The Federal Reserve economists simply said, look, it’s really the aggregate dollars in a market that set house prices. And this is the K economy argument, but when you have so many people who are becoming so very, very rich and there are few investments treated so generously by our tax code as investing in your primary home,
So that in fact what you have are a lot of very high income, high wealth households pulling up the home prices. So if you track the case shielder index and just the mean household income, you find they track very, very closely. So all of our concern of price rising faster than median is important for identifying affordability problems, but realizing that in fact that price index is tracking very closely with the aggregate income out there, that explains an awful lot of why owner-occupied homes are going up. Now, it’s not as easy then to flip that and say, “All right, just because the owner-occupied homes are going up so rapidly, why are rents going up?” I find mixed research on that one, but the notion of rental is the substitute, so that’s why they have a complimentary price rise. But what I think everybody can agree is rents have risen faster than median renter income.
Again,
Not faster than average renter income. We’ve had a lot of households come into the rental market, priced out of the owner occupancy market, so that has pulled up rents, but it leaves us with the very bad situation that we have a large percentage of our population, the wage earners, if you will, who are renters, not necessarily by choice, but they are trapped in a situation where rents are rising beyond their means. And for what’s worth, that’s a third avenue of research, and they define that as a shortage when they say, “Look, the number of units we have affordable to say the 50% of area median family income renters, that’s essentially the very low and extremely low income renters, we have many more households than we have units affordable to them.” And that I think is an understandable way to define a shortage. The difficulty I always have with that is I’m a big proponent of rental assistance.
When we talk about a shortage, somehow it goes into members of Congress mind that we need to get out hammers and nails and build more units. If we don’t really have a shortage of units, is that the most cost effective way to address the problem?
It seems to me the answer is no. We have tried rental assistance in various forms over decades so that in fact, it seems clear to me that we can get more bang for the federal dollar spent through rental assistance to help low income households consume rental units that already exist rather than go out and build more rental units.

Dave:
Interesting. Yeah, I’ve heard that argument and that does make sense to me because efforts to build supply by the federal government have not always been the most cost-effective route. So maybe just helping renters makes more sense. But from an economic perspective, Kirk, I guess the thing that I always wonder here is if there’s this mismatch in affordability, there’s enough units, but renters can’t afford it, shouldn’t market price, shouldn’t the equilibrium come down? Shouldn’t rents come down then because there would be a high level of vacancy, at least in these middle level apartments where it’s… Wouldn’t you see vacancy there and then people would have to lower their price if this was really the case?

Kirk:
I agree with you. It sure seems like it should.

Dave:
Right? Yeah. Okay. Well,

Kirk:
That’s pretty much economics 101, right? Yeah. If that aggregate demand in that segment of the market is failing to keep up, then you would think the market would adjust. There’s conflicting evidence on this. I am one of those people. I played a very minor role in the creation of the low-income housing tax credit program clear back in 1985 when it was put together. And I think it was a genuinely heartfelt way for the government to try to augment the supply of units affordable to truly low income households. Unfortunately, it has become over time a surrogate middle income housing program.
So we are spending between 11 and 15 billion per year in the low income housing tax credit program. But if our shortages are among people who are very low and extremely low income, which is to say these are people who can only afford units at 500 to $700 a month, our low-income housing tax credit units being bills are coming in at $1,200 and $1,400 a month. They are adding to a segment of the market that arguably already has saturation. And in fact, there’s some very good research that says there is something on the order of 85% displacement of market rate units by a tax credit unit. For every hundred tax credit units built, 85 fewer market rate units are being built. So we’re only creating a small net gain, and even then we’re adding them into a market segment that is serving bluntly a level of middle income households.
Filtering we know doesn’t work terribly well, so adding in the middle isn’t causing the lower priced units to come down.

Dave:
Yeah, that tracks with what I hear from developers. The numbers just don’t make sense to build affordable housing right now with the cost of construction and labor and financing. In most places, you can’t build something where 500 to $700 in rent is going to give you a good risk-adjusted return if you get a return at all. And so yeah, I totally get that. Everyone says, “Yeah, build more affordable housing.” That would be awesome if you could, but no one can make the math work. I mean, you are more of an expert than I. I don’t really know, but it makes sense to me if we have the units, and certainly we’ve seen a lot of multifamily supply in the last couple of years. There are certainly rising vacancies in a lot of metro areas across the US right now that maybe the answer is to get more dollars into the hands of renters who can then fill the existing units.
That makes sense to me. We got to take a quick break everyone, but we’ll be right back. Stick with us.
Welcome back to On the Market. Let’s jump back in with Professor Kirk McClure. Where do you see this going from here, Kirk? I know the crystal ball question is always a little bit of a trap, but so much of the narrative around the housing market has been, yeah, appreciation has fallen off over the last couple of years. Real home prices are actually down off 2022, even though the nominal prices are going up, but it will come back because there’s this shortage and there’s always going to be this lagging demand. Where do you see the housing market heading for the next few years?

Kirk:
We have what seems to be a persuasive narrative that prices are high because we have a shortage of units. Government should then create programs that foster more production. I have yet to meet a home builder whoever though there was such a thing as too much housing. If the government’s going to

Dave:
Subsidize

Kirk:
Them to build more, they’ll go out and build more, but I don’t see the efforts at the federal level to foster greater production going very far. You’re probably aware of the low-income housing tax credit program. There was a vote two years ago now, I should remember the exact time, but to increase the production of the program by about 12%. There is no doubt in my mind the developers will line up. They will bring proposals to the various state housing finance agencies. They will produce units, but remembering the displacement number of 85%, if anything, I think that displacement number will go higher. If you’re an underwriter, private sector, market rate properties, and you see tax credit properties operating in a market and you see occupancy numbers coming down, the first thing that goes into your head is maybe we ought to back off of these multifamily rental properties.
If we normally did 500 units a year, then let’s back down. So I truthfully have enough confidence in the guardrails that already exist in the marketplace to think that there’s not going to be any great damaging effect. The part that worries me most is the tax credit program already costs us 11 to 15 billion. We’re going to make that something like 13 to 17 billion now. We will build more units, but we won’t have any positive effect in it. The affordability problems will continue, so the K economy will continue to diverge, and that’s the part that bothers me. Again, quick sort of background piece. The housing choice voucher goes to the hand of the household, low income household. They pay 30% of the rent and utilities out of their income. The remainder is paid by the program. That program is expensive. It’s in the 30 billion a year, but at the moment it serves a Only one in four truly low income households.
If we added to that program, and I only dream of days when we would have enough money for every eligible household, but let’s say we expanded the program sufficiently that we helped two out of every four eligible households. We know the units are out there. We know from the waiting lists in these cities that are measured in years. Somebody signs up for a Section eight
Housing choice voucher, in all likelihood, they will wait years before the housing authority calls and says, “It’s your turn.” So in fact, the program works. I think we would have much greater beneficial effect than overbuilding the middle price of the rental apartments. So I realize that’s sort of long-winded answer to where do I think we’re going, but that’s where I think we’re going. We’re going to overbuild where we don’t need them, and we’re going to leave many truly poor households without the assistance to enter the market in a good way.

Dave:
So both from a renter and a owner occupied standpoint, it seems. Yeah.

Kirk:
The work that Alex and I did, we looked through a litany of programs that have operated in various times in the past for home buyers, first time low income home buyers. And there’s a lengthy list of tools out there and we know they work. We can do things to get the loan to value ratio low. We can help out on the down payment. We can provide various types of loan insurance to the lender in the event of nonpayment. One of the biggest problems that the very low income home buyers suffer is irregular income. Well, we’ve got insurance programs that can smooth that out. It doesn’t mean there would be nonpayment, but it does mean we can keep that household from being evicted because they can’t pay for a few months during a layoff. So there are all sorts of these programs that have worked in the past.
We would like to see us focus on how do we make better use of the stock we already have rather than thinking the answer is build more units.

Dave:
If we overbuilt in the middle market, I just don’t understand how prices aren’t falling there.That’s the part that is confusing to me is it seems to me, I don’t know, maybe because we’ve been in this era of low interest rates that people held on or the lock-in effect, but now with rates going up and affordability being low and really historically low, the prices just have to come down. I don’t know. I’m like, I can’t wrap my head around having too much supply in the middle and prices not falling. Well,

Kirk:
I agree with you completely. I think at some level, part of the problem is quality of the data. The data we have will tell us the rent on paper that a property manager says he or she charges. But in fact, I know of no good data set that tells me about concessions.

Dave:
Correct.

Kirk:
I’m here in the Kansas City area. I have friends and colleagues who are property manager and they will tell me repeatedly, “I used to be able to charge for carports. I have to give them away now.”

Dave:
100%. So

Kirk:
I do believe we see some downward pressure on price. It comes out at that level of concessions, but to see a truly measurable, let’s say even a 10% drop in rents, I don’t think the kind of overbuilding in the middle has yet caused that drop. Now that’s not everywhere. Again, the advantage I have of living here in Kansas City is we’re not a hot market, but property managers will do what they have to do to try to keep things going. And if that means concessions, they’ll give those concessions. When we really see drops, then I start picking up other signals. Here’s an example. The Missouri Housing Development Corporation unable to use its low income housing tax credit allocation during a year or two. That means not enough developers showed up saying, “If I build, they will come and occupy my apartment.” Even in a federally subsidized program like the low income housing tax credit program, you still got to build a property, you’ve got to hit an occupancy level, you’ve got to cover costs, you’ve got to make your reserve payments.

Dave:
For sure. Yeah.

Kirk:
And if they feel the market is saturated, they back off and say, “I’ll wait and see next year or the year following that.” And we have seen some signs of it, but enough to say that rents will drop, I don’t see it. And the other piece of that, for what it’s worth, again, Alex and I did a piece where we did a simulation of what would be the effect of a drop in rents by five, 10, 15. We even did it up to 25%. And the answer is that it would not solve the affordability problem because what will happen is, okay, let’s say you even have a 25% drop in rents. Now imagine what that would do to the feasibility of the rental portfolios all over the United States. That would

Dave:
Be

Kirk:
Awful. But if it happened, it still doesn’t solve the affordability problem because the greatest benefit goes to the highest income renter households. They receive the greatest benefit. They will then become less burdened. They will have a burden less than 30% of their income. Whereas that household that’s only able to afford say six or $700 a month, but they’re paying a thousand, well even coming down to 750 is still beyond their means. So we’ve got to be a little careful about what we’re wishing for. We don’t really want prices to drop dramatically. We may want the pace to calm down, but in fact, we’ve got way too much investment in some really beautiful rental properties all across the country and the rents need to stay at or near the real rent levels we have today, or we’re going to have a whole lot of defaults and foreclosures on our hand.
Nobody wants to see that.

Dave:
Correct. Yeah. I’m not saying I hope for that. Just the way you’re explaining it makes me feel like it should have happened already.
How do you see this impacting the owner occupied side of things? Because we obviously have had a slowdown in appreciation and the demographics point to a declining population probably. People argue about when that might be, but if you just extrapolate out the birth rate and immigration rates right now, probably going to have a declining population at some point. So do you think though that long term in terms of just property values for even single family homes, there’s going to be downward pressure because if we have sufficient units today and we have a declining population and perhaps declining households in the next 10, 20 years, wouldn’t that bring down pricing or property values?

Kirk:
Possibly. But again, go back to the two pieces about the fundamental drivers of housing prices today. We have an awful lot of people who’ve made an awful lot of wealth, stock market, wherever. They’ve done quite well.
They go into a submarket and remember racial segregation is slowly subsiding, but income stratification is becoming more and more prevalent in our metropolitan market. The very rich only live in districts with very rich and the not so rich, but pretty close living. So we have this separation that enforces the bidding up of the prices. So that wealth is there. Now the question is, should we be subsidizing those households to invest in a home as a way to build wealth? I think it’s a wonderful argument when we’re talking about the working poor as it were. They can continue to live as renters or they can become homeowners and enjoy the benefits of wealth development so they can pass it on to their kids. But right now we say for all households, whatever income level, the first half million bucks you make every five years, you can trade for another house and that is exempt from capital gains taxes.
I can see social value in that for a guy who is standing behind a cash register or he’s putting mufflers in cars and he’s trying to help his family make some money. I’m not sure I see value for that for the households that are up there mid six digits.
So I am concerned about that. The reason I’m particularly concerned is there’s a fair effort growing in Washington to raise the capital gains exemption even further saying, “Oh my God, it’s old. It’s out of date. We have 15% of our homeowners who are in need of it to be in higher.” That 15% has already then made more than a half million bucks on their home. Do we really need to subsidize through tax benefits anymore? I think no. I’m

Dave:
Laughing because we have a panel show and I got in this argument with three of my friends and panelists on the show. I was saying that it’s crazy to try and raise that. I think it’s a champagne problem. If you have that problem, that’s a problem anyone would be grateful to have, that you made so much money on your home that only 500,000 is tax free. Mind you, you still get that 500,000 tax free. It’s just anything you earn above 500,000 is tax free.

Kirk:
The irony of this you see is my colleague in this research is Alex Schwartz, lives in New York City and of course that is a hot market where he made colleagues on the West Coast. In coastal California for a piece of real estate, that does not seem like a huge number. So it’s difficult, but in the near term, I see those debates coming up and it bothers me. I would rather see us more focused on how do we truly solve the problems of the low income. And I don’t feel we’re doing that right now.

Dave:
Kirk, thank you so much for being here. This has been an eye-opening conversation. I really appreciate you sharing your work and your research with us today.

Kirk:
It’s been a great pleasure.

Dave:
And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On the Market. We’ll see you next week for another episode.

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Why some non-QM loans are suddenly beating conventional rates


She priced the loan with a couple of non-QM lenders, and every one of them came in below conventional, Bloom said.

One of the biggest differences Bloom cites is the volatility of pricing for agency loans compared to the non-QM market.

“With conventional financing, the rates can change five times a day, especially when you have market conditions as they have been over the last few weeks,” she said. “But the non-QM market, they just don’t change as quickly. Have they gone up? Absolutely. But they don’t react as quickly to go up. It’s a little bit of a slower process.”

Why some brokers hesitate

Bloom said the pricing shift has not changed how every broker feels about non-QM. She heard that in person at a dinner during the Association of Independent Mortgage Experts (AIME) Fuse event in Austin.

“I know a lot of other mortgage brokers are scared of non-QM,” she said. “I was sitting across the table from these great brokers who specialize in VA. One of the guys said, ‘I’m terrified to do non-QM. I’m stressed out. I don’t like it. I’m worried for my client. I try to stay away from that as much as I possibly can.’ And I’m like, why? I think some of it’s because he doesn’t know the programs as well.”

‘A bond-market crisis would be a good thing’: Wall Street losing patience with government debt


This year, our Most Powerful Women Asia list captures the women at the forefront of change in Asia. DBS Group CEO Tan Su Shan retains the No. 1 spot, while Lens Technology founder Zhou Qunfei makes the year’s biggest leap, climbing 25 places to No. 3. Nearly a quarter of the 100 women are newcomers. Collectively, they represent 14 markets across the region. Technology leads the list with 16 women, ahead of banking with 14—a reflection of Asia’s formidable strength in hardware, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Together, they are shaping industries, companies, and markets far beyond the region.—Ashleigh Nghiem

Why Oura pulled its IPO

Hours before Oura, the smart-ring maker behind one of the season’s most closely watched IPOs, was expected to price its shares, CEO Tom Hale delivered a stunning announcement: The company was calling off its public debut, citing “uncertainty in the IPO market.”

But no one takes that statement seriously, according to Fortune’s Morgan Chittum.

“What else are you gonna say? ‘We aren’t meeting our expectations.’ I mean, that’s just not a thing to say to the public,” Kat Siu of IPOX said. 

“They always blame it on market conditions,” said Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida. “They never say, ‘Uh, the reason we’re pulling the IPO is we had unrealistic expectations about how much we’re worth.’”

MORE FROM FORTUNE

What Really Happened to Red Lobster? | Fortune Daily

The Future 120—How vital firms stay forever young – Ketil Gjerstad, Johann Harnoss, and Viacheslav Romanov

It’s ‘more likely than not’ humanity loses control: Former AI insiders testify safety fixes may be ‘duct tape that will fall off later’ – Catherina Gioino

Amazon’s answer to data center backlash: $1 billion for community college and home energy upgrades – Mia Osmonbekov

Inside Europe’s biggest companies—and the forces reshaping them – Sam Forsdick

Redfin signals a shift in power to buyers as a record share of sellers cut prices for this time of year—but 7% mortgage rates are a problem – Bilin Lin

Wealthy boomers doubt their heirs will keep giving as $124 trillion changes hands, BofA finds. The data shows a different reality – Sydney Lake

THE MARKETS

A break in the bond drama gives breathing room for stocks

The drama in the global bond markets eased off in the last 24 hours, helped by a drop in the price of oil, and stocks are broadly up this morning as a result. Oil fell to under $100 per barrel, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell beneath 5.3%, sitting at 5.27% at the time of writing. Even French government bonds rose, despite rioting on the streets in protest at lack of funding for schools. The Macron government has repeatedly attempted to get its debt under control but has met political opposition at every step—and that’s why traders are selling out of French bonds.

“Markets have had another volatile session over the last 24 hours, as investors grappled with European contagion risk and a fresh Treasury selloff,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid told clients this morning. “On the bright side, yesterday brought some initial signs that the pressure on France was stabilizing, with a clear outperformance in French debt.”

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.26% this morning. The index rose 0.66% yesterday. 
  • In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.94% in early trading, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.86% before lunch.
  • Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.89%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.05%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.63%. China’s markets are closed. 
  • Brent crude was $98 per barrel.
  • Bitcoin was at $85,986.

France leads the way when it comes to bond market mayhem

This chart from Ed Yardeni and Toby Hearst at Yardeni Research shows countries ranked by the increase in yields on their 10-year bonds, versus a year ago. France has got it the worst, with the U.S. coming in as a decent runner-up. Both countries’ bonds performed worse than those of Italy or Greece—something that rarely happens.

“Six of the 22 bond markets on our list have seen 10-year yields climb 100bps [basis points] or more this year. France leads at 131bps, with the U.S. second at 112bps. Italy, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea round out the group,” the pair told clients.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“We take the unpopular stance that a bond-market crisis would be a good thing.”

—AllianceBernstein’s Inigo Fraser Jenkins, who argues that such a crisis is “probably the sole route to engender change and avoid worse intergenerational tension later. However, in practice politicians might balk and stop yields from rising by fiat, thereby triggering inflation and currency implications.”

Why stocks haven’t been hammered by falling bonds—yet

The S&P 500 seems to have cruised on, unaffected by the drama in bonds, which is odd because panic in one sector usually leads to panic in another. The index is up 13.56% year-to-date.

In fact, this is something of an illusion, according to Charu Chanana, the chief investment strategist at Saxo. “Over the past month, the S&P 500 is up around 0.7%. Yet only two sectors are positive: technology, up 7.1%, and communication services, up 3.3%. Every other sector is down,” she writes.

“There are two simple ways higher yields can hurt equities,” she says. “First, bonds become more attractive. If investors can earn more than 5% from U.S. government debt, stocks need to offer a more compelling return to justify the additional risk. Second, borrowing becomes more expensive. Companies refinancing debt, households taking mortgages and businesses funding new investment all face a higher cost of money. But the impact is not equal across the market. Some sectors feel it much more quickly than others.”

CHART OF THE DAY

Mortgage applications have ‘collapsed’ as the U.S. bond market drives up financing costs

Mortgage rates track the longer end of the bond market. The 10-year Treasury recently hit 5.3%, and the average mortgage rate is now around 7.3%—high enough to price many out of the market. Indeed, mortgage applications have “collapsed” this year, according to Christopher Wood at Jefferies. They’re down 6% week-on-week and down 37% from this point last year. 

“This is another major negative for the White House incumbent,” he told clients. “This is why the 47th American president’s polling on the economy remains dire.”

NUMBER OF THE DAY

6 New York cities

The equivalent shortfall of power needed by the AI buildout, as estimated by Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd and his colleagues. “The midpoint shortfall remains at a daunting 33 GW [gigawatts]. As a point of reference, New York City demands 5.5-6 GW of baseload power: we are short power by six New York cities,” or 34% of the estimated power needed, they said in a recent note.

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY

Warnings of possible Iranian drone attack led US to pull bombers from RAF Fairford – FT

Trump offers U.S. help to Russia after plague death; WHO assesses the situation as low risk – CNBC

GOP senator warns Anthropic of “alarmist” approach to AI – Axios

Saudi-Backed Forces Launch Fight to Free Bab al-Mandeb From Houthis – WSJ

DeepSeek to Raise at Least $12 Billion in Tencent-Backed Funding – Bloomberg

Sailors reportedly offered $25K per trip to move oil out of the Persian Gulf amid strikes, drone attacks – NY Post

ONE MORE THING

AI will kill off the keyboard, some believe

Take this with a pinch of salt but … The London School of Economics has warned that the days of the keyboard are numbered, according to Fortune’s Orianna Rosa Royle. By 2028, voice AI will become the default way of working. In the next few years, a study says, workers will be talking to their phones or laptops instead of typing, thanks to the explosion of AI.

“By the time Gen Alpha enters the workforce, AI will be fully embedded, and their work will be spoken long before it’s ever typed,” Paul Sephton, global head of brand communications at Jabra, told Fortune. 

(Also worth bearing in mind: The keyboard has been around for decades and has survived every technical revolution thrown at it. Don’t be surprised if it survives this one too.)

Looking At How We Interact With Whistleblowers


Just over a week ago, we received the incredibly sad news that a whistleblower, Simon Andriesz, who we had been in contact with over many years, had died. We’ve shared our condolences, and our thoughts are with his family and loved ones.

We’re often in contact with people in challenging circumstances.

They may be sharing information about a firm we regulate that they’re concerned about, or in the middle of a dispute affecting their financial security.

The personal stress of those situations, and dealing with an official body like us, can be – and for many, is – significant.

I know the many colleagues who are in contact with whistleblowers and vulnerable individuals always aim to treat them as the people they are – with empathy and professionalism, not simply cases to be managed.

That’s vital if people are to feel confident coming to us with their concerns. We’re grateful so many do, with the number of whistleblowing reports increasing 22% last year.

To build greater confidence, we’re sharing more information with whistleblowers about the action we take. We provided feedback on each of the 1,252 whistleblowing reports we closed last year. Overall, 42% of these led to direct action to manage or reduce harm. A further 53% informed our wider work and supported harm prevention.

We know, though, frustrations remain. Legal restrictions can mean we’re not able to share as much as people understandably want, and sometimes the actions we take don’t meet people’s expectations.

None of this means that there aren’t things we could improve.

We’ve asked Lea Paterson, who has just joined our Board as an independent non-executive director, to review how we interacted with Mr Andriesz. Lea will look at whether there are things we could have done better, and she’ll help us learn for the future.

We must be open and consider if there are ways in which we can improve, especially in how we interact with people who may be particularly vulnerable. I’m grateful to Lea for taking on this important work. We plan to share any lessons she thinks we should learn from, and how we’ll take them forward, early next year.



Wealthy baby boomers are losing faith in their millennial heirs’ giving



Wealthy baby boomers have spent decades building their fortunes—and the foundations, donor-advised funds, and giving traditions that come with them. But as the $124 trillion Great Wealth Transfer gets underway, a growing share of the older generation isn’t so sure their kids will carry on tradition the way they hope.

Fewer than half of wealthy Americans (47%) believe the next generation is prepared to take on family philanthropic causes, down from 55% in 2024, according to research from Bank of America released last week. The share of parents who believe their children share their commitment to giving back fell even more sharply to 65% from 76%. The bank surveyed more than 1,430 wealthy individuals in the U.S. aged 21 or older with at least $3 million in investable assets, excluding primary residence.

The confidence gap in philanthropy mirrors a broader anxiety wealth advisors have noticed about whether heirs are ready for any of it. 

“This is a very real concern I’m hearing from ultra-affluent families right now,” Tom Thiegs, managing director of leadership and legacy at Ascent Private Capital Management with U.S. Bank, told Fortune of parents’ fears that wealth could dampen their children’s drive. Trent Von Ahsen of Cedar Point Capital Partners also told Fortune his clients are leaning on mentorship and phased wealth transfers rather than lump-sum inheritances.

But the irony is younger donors are, by several of the study’s measures, more engaged donors than older generations. Gen Z and millennial donors support an average of 12 charitable causes, compared with eight among wealth donors overall. They’re also roughly twice as likely to use a donor-advised fund, and 87% say honoring their family’s philanthropic tradition is important. Meanwhile, 86% say it’s equally important to establish their own charitable identity.

“Younger donors want to honor the charitable traditions that shaped them, but they also want to define their own impact,” Jennifer Chandler, head of philanthropic solutions at Bank of America Private Bank, wrote in the study. “The opportunity for families is to engage the next generation early, creating a shared vision for giving while allowing room for new priorities and approaches.”

Gen Z and millennials give differently

Generations also diverge in how they give. Among baby boomer and Silent Generation donors, 92% give through cash contributions, while just 56% of Gen Z and millennial donors do. Instead, younger donors are more likely to give through charitable trusts, family foundations, fundraising, and mentorship. 

Some of that comes down to inheritance. Many young donors come from families that already set up foundations, charitable trusts, or donor-advised funds (DAFs), Dianne Chipps Bailey, managing director of BofA’s Philanthropic Solutions division, told the Chronicle of Philanthropy. Younger donors also gravitate to DAFs because they’re digital-first, she said.

The way they give also reflects how they want to be involved. Younger donors are nearly three times as likely as older ones to fundraise for the causes they support (30% versus 11%) and six times as likely to mentor (26% versus 4%). 

But that hands-on approach is what nonprofits are struggling to adapt to. Community organizations spent decades cultivating wealthy baby boomer donors, and so that connection fades with each generation removed from the original donors. 

“A lot of nonprofits feel a bit paralyzed in how to tackle that problem,” Steve Isom, chief operating and financial officer of donor-software firm Bloomerang, previously told Fortune. Younger donors, he said, are willing to trust organizations, but want to see exactly where their money goes first.

Bloomerang’s data also showed Gen Z and millennials are very active donors. In fact, their 2026 Giving Signals Report, conducted with The Harris Poll, pegged millennials as the most active donor generation right now.

“Donors are ready to trust nonprofits, but they want to see the receipts more,” Isom said. 

Where to invest in Nigeria this August 2026



Wondering where to invest your money in August 2026?

In this episode of Everyday Money Matters, host Olusegun Akin-Olugbenjo sits down with Nairametrics Senior Analyst **Idika Aja** to break down the Nigerian stock market and the opportunities investors should be watching this month.

We discuss:

* Why banking stocks continue to dominate the market
* Whether oil and gas stocks still have upside
* The impact of inflation, interest rates and crude oil prices
* Stocks that analysts believe deserve attention this August
* Common mistakes investors should avoid
* How to think about building a balanced investment portfolio

Whether you’re a first-time investor or an experienced market participant, this episode offers practical insights to help you make more informed investment decisions.

Disclaimer: This discussion is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research or speak with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

#Nairametrics #NGX #StockMarket #Investing #Nigeria #EverydayMoneyMatters #PersonalFinance #August2026

source

College Athletes Earned $1.77 Billion In The First Year Of Revenue Sharing


Key Points

  • Schools paid 34,915 college athletes $1.77 billion directly in the first year of revenue sharing. That works out to about $50,700 per athlete on average.
  • Only 68 of the 319 opted-in schools reached the $20.5 million cap or came within 5% of it. The cap rises to $21.58 million for 2026-27.
  • Revenue sharing is separate from third-party NIL deals. The CSC reviews NIL deals through its NIL Go platform, and NIL income is generally taxed as self-employment income.

Colleges paid student-athletes $1.77 billion in direct revenue-sharing payments during the 2025-26 year. This was the first year schools could pay athletes directly from their own budgets and the data released was October 1 by the College Sports Commission (PDF File).

The money went to 34,915 athletes at 307 schools across 33 conferences and 45 sports.

Schools reported $1.98 billion in total distributions through the CSC’s College Athlete Payment System. That figure adds $42 million in Alston Awards and $163 million in new and incremental athletic scholarship spending on top of the revenue-sharing checks.

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Why It Matters

Divided evenly, the revenue-sharing pool works out to roughly $50,700 per paid athlete, based on The College Investor’s math using CSC figures. Athletes earning that money face the same financial planning questions as NIL earners, such as how the IRS and the FAFSA treat their income.

The averages, though, hide wide gaps between schools. Each participating school could share up to $20.5 million, yet only 68 of the 319 opted-in schools reached the cap or came within 5% of it. The average paying school distributed about $5.8 million.

At the top end, we know that UCLA paid $20.5 million to 229 athletes and UC Berkeley paid $20.5 million to 147.

The Details

  • Revenue sharing: $1,770,453,776 paid directly by schools
  • New scholarship spending: $163,485,499
  • Alston Awards: $42,034,090
  • Schools paying athletes: 307 of 319 opted-in schools
  • 2026-27 cap: $21.58 million per school, up from $20.5 million

Revenue-sharing money comes from the school itself. Third-party name, image and likeness (NIL) deals are separate, and the CSC reviews those through its NIL Go platform.

That split matters at tax time, because NIL income is generally treated as self-employment income subject to self-employment tax.

How This Connects

Most athletic departments already run deficits before revenue sharing enters the budget. Sharing this money with athletes, while incredibly beneficial to the athletes (and most people would say fair), is simply adding to the cost of college.

A GAO review found 94% of Division I programs spent more than they earned in 2023-24, and colleges covered $7.2 billion of that gap with tuition, student fees, and other unrestricted funds.

A school that pays out the full $20.5 million cap adds a cost roughly equal to the median Division I athletic deficit of $20.6 million.

What’s Next

The 2026-27 cap year began July 1 with a higher $21.58 million limit, and the CSC says it will publish aggregate revenue-sharing data after each year.

Congress could also change the rules: the Senate passed the Protect College Sports Act 77-22 on September 28, and the House has until January 3, 2027 to act before the bill dies.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post College Athletes Earned $1.77 Billion In The First Year Of Revenue Sharing appeared first on The College Investor.

Atmos Rewards Communities Are Now Live: Benefits for All 6 Groups


Atmos Rewards Communities Are Now Live

Alaska Airlines has officially launched its new Atmos Rewards Communities, giving members a way to choose a group that better fits how they travel.

The feature went live on October 1, 2026, expanding from the two existing resident-focused groups, to a total of six Communities. Members can join one group at a time and change Communities once per calendar year.

Atmos Communities are basically themed groups inside Atmos Rewards. Each one comes with extra perks such as bonus-point challenges, special flight deals, partner offers and discounts on select Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences. Joining a Community is completely free.

Atmos Rewards Communities and Benefits

Global Locals

Best suited for members who travel internationally.

  • 10% bonus status points on international travel
  • Earn 1 status point for every 25 Atmos Rewards points transferred from an eligible partner
  • Earn up to 10,000 bonus points and status points after visiting 10 qualifying destinations
  • Exclusive flight deals
  • 20% off select Community-specific Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences

Families on the Go

Built for families traveling with kids.

  • 20% points rebate on award flights for children age 12 or younger
  • Earn up to 10,000 bonus points and status points after visiting 10 qualifying destinations
  • Exclusive flight deals
  • 20% off select Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences

Culinary Journeys

For travelers who like planning trips around food.

  • Earn up to 10,000 bonus points and status points after visiting 10 qualifying food destinations
  • Exclusive flight deals
  • 20% off select Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences

Active Escapes

Geared toward outdoor trips and adventure travel.

  • Earn up to 10,000 bonus points and status points after visiting 10 qualifying destinations
  • Exclusive flight deals
  • 20% off select Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences

Club 49

Available only to Alaska residents.

  • Free checked bags
  • Earn up to 10,000 bonus points and status points after visiting 10 qualifying destinations
  • Exclusive flight deals
  • 20% off select Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences

Huakaʻi by Hawaiian

Available only to Hawaiʻi residents.

  • Free checked bags
  • 50% bonus points and status points on interisland travel starting January 1, 2027
  • Earn up to 10,000 bonus points and status points after visiting 10 qualifying destinations
  • Exclusive flight deals
  • 20% off select Atmos Rewards Unlocked experiences

Atmos Rewards Communities Benefits

Guru’s Wrap-Up

Atmos Rewards Communities are now live, and there’s really no reason not to pick one if you’re already in the program.

Some of the perks are more useful than others, but the 20% kids award rebate, extra international status points and the 10,000-point destination challenges stand out.

Just choose carefully since you can only switch Communities once per calendar year.

Is Michael Burry Right About MercadoLibre?


Michael Burry is one of the most followed investors working today. The longtime head of the hedge fund Scion Asset Management gained fame from The Big Short, when his huge bet on the housing crash paid off in 2008.

That tale established Burry as a top contrarian investor, and investors have followed his moves since. Burry shut down his hedge fund last year and now shares his thoughts and investments on his Substack. One of his most intriguing ideas this year has been MercadoLibre (MELI +9.67%). The stock is now down nearly a third from its peak in 2025, even as tech stocks and the S&P 500 are hovering around all-time highs.

The Latin American e-commerce star has been a top performer on the market since its IPO in 2007, but has struggled more recently due to concerns about competition, falling margins, and its risky venture into the credit business.

MercadoLibre got some good news on Monday as the stock popped 9.7% as Brazilian stocks rallied in response to Flavio Bolsonaro’s strong showing in yesterday’s election, as Bolsonaro is regarded as the pro-business candidate. However, Burry has been making his case for months.

Image source: MercadoLibre.

Why Burry is bullish on MercadoLibre

Burry has also gotten attention for short bets against Nvidia and Palantir, and that’s part of his thesis behind MercadoLibre. He believes investors have piled into popular AI stocks, leaving strong companies like MercadoLibre trading at bargain prices. He compared it to 1999, when the rush into tech stocks left quality names in other industries trading at attractive prices.

The contrarian investor also argued that management was making a smart long-term move by investing in areas like logistics, lower free shipping thresholds, and growing its credit business. He has cited MercadoLibre’s strong top-line growth as evidence that those investments are paying off.

MercadoLibre’s unbeatable track record

It’s understandable why MercadoLibre would pull back on lower margins, as competitors like Amazon and Sea Limited have stepped up their investments in the market.

However, one data point offers a good reminder of MercadoLibre’s prowess and its unrivaled growth potential.

It just became the first major company to grow revenue by 30% over 30 consecutive quarters, something no other large publicly traded company has done.

The company managed to do that by expanding its e-commerce business across Latin America, investing in its logistics service to support that growth, and scaling its MercadoPago fintech business in Brazil and Mexico. That growth streak is a tribute to management’s execution, the opportunity the company has in Latin America, and the potential it has in new businesses like credit.

MercadoLibre Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(9.67%) $164.05

Current Price

$1,860.61

Is MercadoLibre a buy?

The sell-off in MercadoLibre seems to signal that investors believe that its profit margin will be impaired over the long term or that competition will continue to eat into its market share and profitability.

However, I tend to agree with Burry that MercadoLibre’s investments are paying off in its growth rate, and it’s a mistake to assume the business is in trouble. Revenue jumped 50%, or 43% on a currency-neutral basis, to $10.2 billion in its second quarter, with strong growth in both fintech and e-commerce.

Meanwhile, key metrics like assets under management per user and items sold per buyer continue to move higher, showing the business continues to gain scale. Analysts also expect earnings growth returning next year, calling for earnings per share to jump nearly 50% to $55.95, meaning it’s trading around 33 times next year’s expected earnings.

That looks like a great price to pay for a company with MercadoLibre’s history of growth and its potential. The stock continues to look like a strong buy.