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We got a rare winning day for mortgage rates yesterday thanks to what seemed like renewed interest in bonds.
The global bond selloff has been brutal for mortgage rates, but at a certain point things inevitably start to look attractive.
That got me wondering if bond yields have climbed high enough to finally spark some interest.
MBS investors might be thinking 7.5% mortgage rates aren’t half-bad, especially if rates stay in a tight range and the loans don’t pay off quickly.
But this is just one hypothesis. Perhaps mortgage rates will keep rising and simply don’t move in straight line.
The answer right now is maybe.
The 10-year bond yield has been relentless lately, climbing day after day and taking 30-year fixed mortgage rates up with it.
It rose as high as 5.35% a handful of times over the past week, only to get turned back each time.
So it’s clear there’s some sort of technical resistance there, where bond buyers show some interest.
Of course, the pullbacks haven’t been massive. We’re still looking at a 5.25% 10-year yield, which when combined with a 225-basis point spread gives you a ~7.50% 30-year fixed, as seen in the chart above from MND.
In other words, it’s not reason to celebrate since we’re only down from the highs of 7.625%.
But it does make you wonder if bonds are finally looking attractive at these levels.
After all, earning 7% on your money is pretty good for a relatively low-risk security.
It’s starting to look that way, but one or two days doesn’t make a trend.
Just like a couple down days for mortgage rates, the trend can still NOT be our friend even if rates drift lower for a few days or even a week.
The big positive was the bond auction yesterday that drew plenty of demand and put some worries to rest.
It seemed like bonds would never stop selling off and that nobody would show up to buy them. But lo and behold, there was interest, finally.
The auction proved that there are buyers out there at these much-higher levels, and buying is exactly what you need to go get yields (interest rates) to stop climbing.
There are some folks who even believe the 10-year has already peaked, though I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet.
I remember when we’d get the odd soft inflation report or weak jobs report and everyone would get excited thinking the worst was finally over.
But one report isn’t enough. Two reports aren’t even enough.
Former Fed chair Jerome Powell used to say they’d take it one meeting at a time for this reason.
You can’t have a ton of conviction from a month’s worth of data.
So to think we finally hit a peak for bond yields (and mortgage rates) would be silly.
[Try out my mortgage rate calculator to compare rates and payments side by side fast.]
At the same time, something I’ve mentioned in the past is that nothing moves in a straight line.
Mortgage rates don’t just go straight up. Nor do they go straight down.
Like all other things, be it oil prices or stock prices, they naturally ebb and flow.
After such a relentless move higher, bond yields and mortgage rates could just be taking a breather.
There is certainly some optimism that we’re getting closer to that top, but at the same time it wouldn’t shock me if after a short break, we go even higher.
Again, it will depend on what’s actually happening out there.
Oil remains over $100 per barrel, though it eased somewhat after President Trump said there’d be no fresh attacks before the midterm elections.
But what happens after that?
If it turns out to just be a delay and we keep seeing tensions rise in the Middle East, oil prices will likely keep climbing and that will keep upward pressure on mortgage rates.
So while it’s good to see some interest in bonds (and mortgage-backed securities) at these levels, you still have to keep an eye on the war and what transpires there.
Read on: How are mortgage rates set?
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 20 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
Investors always listen closely to comments from Warren Buffett — and for good reason. The billionaire spent six decades at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, and there, he drove market-beating gains. He helped Berkshire Hathaway deliver an average annual return of more than 19%, compared with the S&P 500’s 10% over that period.
That’s concrete proof of Buffett’s clear understanding of the market, and investors, realizing this, aim to benefit from his wisdom. Buffett has been generous when it comes to sharing his thoughts on investing and secrets to success, and he’s done this through his letters to shareholders, talks at events, and press interviews.
Today, Buffett no longer leads Berkshire Hathaway’s investing decisions. He recently retired and now holds the position of chairman emeritus and a spot on the board of directors. However, Buffett remains involved in the Berkshire Hathaway investment process and also continues to share his thoughts with the public.
In fact, Buffett is sending shockwaves through Wall Street with the following warning, and history says this may happen next.
Image source: The Motley Fool. Image source: The Motley Fool.
First, let’s consider the S&P 500’s path so far in 2026, after completing a 78% gain over three years. As the artificial intelligence (AI) boom gained momentum, investors turned to stocks operating in this space — and since many are tech giants, heavily weighted in the S&P 500, they helped push the index significantly higher. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, investors also favored other growth stocks, as they benefit in such environments.
This year, the S&P 500 has pulled back on occasion as investors worried about several headwinds, from rising inflation to the possibility that the AI revenue opportunity wouldn’t be as significant as expected. Still, declines have been short-lived, and the index has continued to march higher, even closing at a record this week. And certain AI stocks have delivered mind-boggling gains — for example, AI memory providers Sandisk Corp. and Micron Technology have climbed more than 600% and 200%, respectively, since the start of January.
Now, let’s consider the Warren Buffett warning that’s sending shockwaves through Wall Street. Speaking with CNBC during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders’ meeting in May, Buffett expressed concern about a high level of “gambling” in the stock market.
“We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now,” he said, referring to the preference for betting to score a fast gain rather than investing for the long term.
Today’s Change
(0.59%) +46.18
Index Level
7,811.54
Day’s Range
7,779.34 – 7,820.57
52wk Range
6,316.91 – 7,844.52
At the same time, valuations have climbed to high levels, as we can see through the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio. It considers stock price and earnings per share over 10 years to account for fluctuations in the economic environment.
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts
As we can see, the last time valuations reached — and surpassed — such levels was prior to the dot-com crash. So, history suggests that, following this period of “gambling,” and with stocks at expensive levels, the next move could be a decline in stock prices — even if it’s not a long-lasting movement or a crash, stocks could be heading for a pullback from today’s levels.
What does this mean for you as an investor? Buffett’s warning doesn’t signal that investors should stop buying stocks. The billionaire has invested throughout market environments and has never lost faith in quality companies. Instead, this comment from Buffett shows us that some market activity — the quest for quick gains — may present a risk. And against this backdrop, it’s important to refrain from getting caught up in that movement.
Instead, it’s essential to stick to strong investing principles, as Buffett does, and continue to look for quality stocks that trade at reasonable valuations and hold onto them for the long term. By doing so, even if the gambling Buffett notes in the market leads to declines, you still will be well-positioned to win over time.
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What are the jobs of managers?
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What are the functions of business management?
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Key Points
For most undergraduates, paying for college starts with a Federal Direct Loan in the student’s name, with no credit check and no cosigner. The problem is the size. A dependent freshman can borrow $5,500, and even a senior tops out at $7,500, while the average sticker price at a private four-year college runs well past $40,000 a year.
When the federal loan runs out, families turn to a Parent PLUS loan or a private loan, and that is where the “can’t get a student loan” problem starts. Parents get denied for adverse credit history, or get approved but hit the new $20,000 annual cap. Students without a creditworthy cosigner get turned down by private lenders, and more than 93% of private undergraduate loans require a cosigner.
Each dead end below has a fix, from the federal options most families miss to the handful of private lenders that approve students other lenders won’t, along with what those loans cost.
Students get shut out of borrowing for one of three reasons: the federal loan limit is too low to cover the school, a parent or student fails a credit check, or the student has lost federal eligibility altogether. Each has a different fix, so the first step is figuring out which one applies.
The federal limit problem is the most common. Federal Direct Loan limits for dependent undergraduates are $5,500 for freshmen, $6,500 for sophomores, and $7,500 for juniors and seniors, with a $31,000 lifetime cap. Those figures haven’t changed in more than a decade. Independent students get $9,500, $10,500, and $12,500, with a $57,500 cap.
The credit problem hits in two places. Parent PLUS loans require a credit check, and private student loans require either strong credit or a cosigner who has it. A student with no credit history and no cosigner will be declined by nearly every traditional lender.
The eligibility problem is less common but harder to fix. Students who fail their school’s Satisfactory Academic Progress standard, who are in default on a prior federal loan, who drop below half-time enrollment, or who attend a school that isn’t eligible for Title IV aid can’t borrow federal loans at all until the underlying issue is resolved.
A Parent PLUS denial raises the student’s own federal loan limit to the independent-student level, which is worth $4,000 a year for freshmen and sophomores and $5,000 a year for juniors and seniors. That extra money comes as a Direct Unsubsidized Loan at the 2026-27 rate of 6.518%, with no credit check. Ask the financial aid office to process it as soon as the denial comes through, because it is not automatic at every school.
The Department of Education defines adverse credit history as more than $2,085 in debt that is 90 or more days delinquent, in collections, or charged off in the past two years, or a default, bankruptcy discharge, foreclosure, repossession, tax lien, wage garnishment, or federal aid write-off in the past five years. A low credit score by itself is not a reason for denial.
Parents who were denied have two ways to reverse it. An endorser, such as a grandparent or other relative without adverse credit, can cosign the PLUS loan. Or the parent can appeal with documentation of extenuating circumstances, such as a defaulted account where the parent was only an authorized user. Both routes require a 30-minute PLUS credit counseling session, and appeals take about four weeks.
Before chasing an endorser, run the numbers. A Parent PLUS loan for 2026-27 carries a 9.068% interest rate and a 4.228% origination fee, and parent borrowers are limited to the Standard Repayment Plan with no access to Public Service Loan Forgiveness. The extra $4,000 to $5,000 in the student’s name, combined with a tuition payment plan, closes a gap of that size at a lower cost than reviving the PLUS loan.
Starting July 1, 2026, Parent PLUS loans are capped at $20,000 per year and $65,000 per student for the student’s entire undergraduate career. Before that date, parents could borrow up to the school’s full cost of attendance. A family that was counting on PLUS to cover a $35,000 gap now has a $15,000 hole every year, and the $65,000 lifetime cap means borrowing the full $20,000 for three years leaves only $5,000 for senior year.
Students who were already enrolled before July 1, 2026, and had a federal loan disbursed before that date may qualify for legacy limits for up to three years, as long as they stay in the same program at the same school. If that’s you, confirm it with the aid office before assuming the cap applies.
For everyone else, the first question is whether the gap should be financed at all. Tuition payment plans spread a semester’s bill over four or five monthly installments for a flat enrollment fee and no interest, which handles a $5,000 to $8,000 gap without a loan. For larger gaps, parents with good credit should compare a private parent loan against a credit union education line of credit, which is approved once and drawn each term, with interest only on the amount used.
Funding U is the only private lender built entirely around students who have no cosigner. It does not require one and will not accept one. For 2026-27, Funding U lends $3,001 to $20,000 per academic year at fixed rates of 8.49% to 13.99%, with a 0.50% autopay discount, no origination or prepayment fees, and a required in-school payment of $20 a month or interest-only.
Approval is merit-based rather than credit-based. Funding U looks at GPA, year in school, major, projected earnings, and the school’s graduation rate, with no minimum FICO score and no review of parent finances. Borrowers must be U.S. citizens, permanent residents, or DACA recipients, enrolled full-time in a bachelor’s program at a nonprofit four-year school in one of 40 eligible states. Upperclassmen with strong grades get the best rates. Read the full Funding U review for the details on forbearance and the graduation rewards.
Juniors and seniors have a second option. Ascent’s outcomes-based loan approves upperclassmen without a cosigner based on GPA (3.0 or higher helps), school, major, and expected earnings, and it is open to DACA students. Ascent doesn’t publish a separate rate range for the non-cosigned product, so expect the high end of its undergraduate pricing. The Ascent review covers the differences between its credit-based and outcomes-based loans.
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| Feature | Funding U | GradBridge | Ascent (Outcomes-Based) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best For | Undergrads with no cosigner at all | Juniors, seniors, and grad students declined by another lender | Juniors and seniors with a 3.0 GPA and no cosigner |
| Cosigner | Not accepted | Required for undergrads | Not required |
| Who Qualifies | Full-time bachelor’s students at nonprofit four-year schools, any class year | Juniors and above in a four-year program, or graduate students, at 2,000+ schools | Juniors and seniors, including DACA students |
| Fixed Rates | 8.49% to 13.99% (0.50% autopay discount available) | 18.06% to 23.07% APR with autopay | Not broken out. 1.00% autopay discount |
| Loan Amounts | $3,001 to $20,000 per year | $5,000 minimum, up to cost of attendance | $2,001 and up, to cost of attendance |
| Fees | None | 5% origination fee | None |
| In-School Payments | $20 a month or interest-only | Deferred, interest-only, or $25 a month | Deferred, interest-only, or flat payment |
| Where Available | 40 states | No state list published. U.S. citizens and permanent residents | Check eligibility by state |
| Learn More | Funding U review | GradBridge review | Ascent review |
A second-look lender is the last stop for a family that applied with a cosigner and was still declined. GradBridge was built for this reader: juniors, seniors, and graduate students who just missed a traditional lender’s approval criteria. Every undergraduate applicant still needs a cosigner, so GradBridge is not an option for a student with no one to cosign. Graduate students can apply alone.
The trade-off is price. GradBridge’s 2026-27 rates, including the 0.25% autopay discount, run 16.89% to 22.04% APR variable and 18.06% to 23.07% APR fixed, plus a 5% origination fee that is added to the loan balance. Loans start at $5,000 and can go up to the school-certified cost of attendance, with 5-, 10-, or 15-year terms and the choice of deferred, interest-only, or $25-a-month payments while in school. Decisions come back in under 15 minutes, and GradBridge can cover past-due balances up to a year old, which no other lender on this page will do.
Before applying, read the adverse action notice from the lender that declined you. Private lenders must tell you why, and the notice points to the fix, such as a different cosigner with a lower debt-to-income ratio or a smaller loan request. If the gap is $10,000 or less, a tuition payment plan or a financial aid appeal almost always beats an 18% loan. The GradBridge review rates it 3.5 out of 5 for that reason: it works, and it is expensive.
Borrowing $10,000 on a 10-year term costs $3,637 in interest at the 2026-27 federal unsubsidized rate of 6.518%, $8,625 at Funding U’s top rate of 13.99%, and $12,752 at GradBridge’s lowest fixed rate of 18.06% once the 5% origination fee is added to the balance. At GradBridge’s top rate of 23.07%, the same $10,000 costs $16,968 to repay, or $225 a month for a decade. Those figures assume repayment starts right away. Deferring payments through school adds accrued interest on top.
That math is why the order of operations matters. Every dollar of Direct Loan eligibility, including the extra unsubsidized amount after a PLUS denial, should be used before a single dollar of private money.
Students who lost federal eligibility can get it back, and it is worth the effort because federal loans and Pell Grants are the cheapest money available. The three common causes each have a defined path back, and two of them can be resolved within a semester.
A failed Satisfactory Academic Progress review (a GPA under 2.0 or completing fewer than two-thirds of attempted credits, at most schools) can be appealed in writing. These SAP appeal letters need a documented reason, such as illness or a family emergency, and a plan for getting back on track.
A defaulted federal loan blocks all new federal aid until it is resolved. Loan rehabilitation takes nine on-time payments over ten months and removes the default from your credit report. Consolidation is faster, restoring eligibility as soon as the new loan is made, but the default stays on your record.
Dropping below half-time enrollment ends Direct Loan eligibility, so a student working full-time and taking one class can’t borrow. Returning to at least half-time, which is six credits at most schools, restores it. Students at schools that aren’t eligible for federal aid, including some unaccredited and for-profit programs, have no federal path and should treat that as a reason to transfer.
The cheapest way to close a funding gap is to shrink it. A financial aid appeal asks the school to revisit its award based on a change in family finances, such as a job loss, a medical bill, or a divorce, and the aid office can use professional judgment to adjust the award. A competing offer from a similar school can also work.
Community college is free or nearly free in more than 30 states for students who qualify, and two years there before transferring removes two years of four-year tuition from the bill. Living at home instead of in a dorm removes the room and board line, which runs $10,000 to $15,000 a year at most four-year schools.
Employer tuition assistance pays up to $5,250 a year tax-free, and some employers pay more. Scholarships from local foundations, professional associations, and state agencies are still open after the big national deadlines pass.
Deferring enrollment for a year to work and save is a legitimate option, not a failure. So is choosing a school where federal loans and family resources cover the full cost. A degree financed at 20% interest is a worse outcome than the same degree from a cheaper school a year later.
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| Your Situation | First Move | What It’s Worth |
|---|---|---|
| Parent PLUS Denied For Credit | Ask the aid office for the independent-student loan limit, then consider an endorser or appeal | $4,000 to $5,000 more per year in federal loans, no credit check |
| Parent PLUS Approved But Capped | Check legacy eligibility if enrolled before July 1, 2026. Compare a tuition payment plan or a credit union education line of credit | Legacy status restores borrowing up to cost of attendance for up to three years |
| Lost Federal Eligibility (SAP Or Default) | File a SAP appeal, or rehabilitate or consolidate a defaulted loan | Restores Direct Loans and Pell Grants, the cheapest money available |
| No Cosigner For A Private Loan | Apply to a no-cosigner lender such as Funding U, or Ascent if you’re a junior or senior | Up to $20,000 a year at 8.49% to 13.99% fixed, with no fees |
| Declined Even With A Cosigner | Fix the reason on the adverse action notice, then try a second-look lender such as GradBridge | Covers the gap, but at 18% to 23% APR plus a 5% fee |
| Any Gap Over $10,000 A Year | Ask for a financial aid appeal, then price a lower-cost school, community college, or a deferred start | Can erase the gap entirely instead of financing it at double-digit rates |
Work the list in order: federal loans first (including the PLUS-denial increase), then a financial aid appeal and a payment plan, then a no-cosigner lender like Funding U, then a second-look lender like GradBridge, and only for a gap you can’t shrink. The further down the list you go, the more the degree costs and the fewer protections the loan carries.
The inability to borrow can feel like the end of the college plan. Treat it instead as a signal that the plan was built on debt the family couldn’t afford. The families that come out ahead are the ones who treat a loan denial as a reason to rethink the school choice, not as a reason to pay any price for the original one.
Yes. Federal Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans have no credit check, so a student’s credit score never affects approval. Parent PLUS loans check for adverse credit history (serious delinquencies, default, bankruptcy, or foreclosure), not a minimum score. Private lenders do check credit, and a student with bad credit will need a cosigner or a no-cosigner lender like Funding U that weighs academics instead.
Yes. Federal Direct Loans don’t require any credit history. For private loans, Funding U and Ascent’s outcomes-based loan approve students with no credit history based on GPA, school, and major. Traditional private lenders will require a cosigner.
The student becomes eligible for the independent-student federal loan limit, which adds $4,000 a year for freshmen and sophomores and $5,000 a year for juniors and seniors in Direct Unsubsidized Loans. The parent can also appeal the denial or add an endorser after completing PLUS credit counseling.
Private lenders don’t have a formal appeal process the way the Department of Education does, but you can reapply. The adverse action notice states the reason for denial. Fixing that reason, whether by adding a stronger cosigner, lowering the amount, or waiting for a delinquency to age off, and reapplying is the private-loan equivalent of an appeal. A second-look lender like GradBridge is the alternative if reapplying fails.
Start with a financial aid appeal if your family’s finances have changed since the FAFSA, then ask the bursar about a tuition payment plan, which spreads the bill over the semester for a small flat fee. If a loan is still needed, use every dollar of federal eligibility before a private loan, and compare no-cosigner options before a second-look loan.
No. Funding U never requires a cosigner and won’t accept one, and it doesn’t review parent income or credit. Approval is based on the student’s academic record, year in school, major, and the school’s graduation rate. The Funding U review covers the full eligibility list.
A second-look loan is a private student loan designed for applicants who were declined by a traditional lender but came close to qualifying. GradBridge is the main lender in this space, serving juniors, seniors, and graduate students. Rates run 16.89% to 23.07% APR with a 5% origination fee, so it belongs at the bottom of the list.
Not a federal one, until the default is resolved. Rehabilitation (nine on-time payments over ten months) or consolidation restores federal aid eligibility. Private lenders will see the default on your credit report and will require a cosigner, if they approve the loan at all.
Editor: Colin Graves
The post What To Do If You Can’t Get A Student Loan For College appeared first on The College Investor.
As the U.S. shale oil and gas revolution took off two decades ago, Australia took notice and wondered whether the boom could be replicated down under.
In September, the effort began to pay off, thanks to the arrival of American oilmen. The first commercial natural gas deliveries from the Beetaloo Basin started flowing to the energy-hungry Northern Territory. The potential is far greater, and little-known Tamboran Resources and Daly Waters Energy had to clear years of roadblocks to get here.
Sydney startup Tamboran first hired an American ExxonMobil and Chevron veteran as its CEO in 2013. In 2014, Texas oil legend Scott Sheffield joined the board of Aussie natural gas player Santos. He was intrigued by the prospect of bringing shale drilling and fracking expertise to the outback, particularly the sparsely populated reserve with a peculiar name: the Beetaloo Basin.
Sheffield saw the Beetaloo’s upside, and its similarity to the Appalachia’s Marcellus Shale. He brought it to the attention of his son, Bryan, also a Texas oil CEO. Bryan was interested but too busy taking his company, Parsley Energy, public. A few months later, shale pioneer Aubrey McClendon took a small land position in the Beetaloo and Bryan read about it.
“I just remember feeling deflated,” Bryan Sheffield told Fortune. “He got into the Beetaloo really early and cheap. I remember thinking to myself, ‘He’s just running circles around me.’”
McClendon died in a car accident a year later, and more setbacks would soon befall the basin. Amid the global pushback to fracking, the Northern Territory imposed a moratorium from 2016 to 2018. Santos and others had drilled with limited results but couldn’t replicate the American formula. COVID-19 then tanked global exploration budgets and most companies’ interest in the Beetaloo. Parsley suffered in the pandemic and was sold to Scott’s company, Pioneer Natural Resources, for $4.5 billion. Two years ago, ExxonMobil bought Pioneer for $60 billion, the largest U.S. oil deal of the century.
After the pandemic, Bryan Sheffield’s top geologist from Parsley again raised the Beetaloo. This time, Sheffield, armed with his own startup private equity firm, Formentera Partners, took the lead.
“This play keeps coming up. This is three times,” Bryan Sheffield said. It felt like a sign.
After investing heavily in the small Aussie gas players, Tamboran and Beetaloo Energy, Sheffield also started his own Australian subsidiary, Daly Waters Energy.
Fast forward four years, partners Daly Waters and Tamboran announced the first natural gas sales ever from the Beetaloo in September. The milestone shows the basin can deliver, but it still must prove it can become economic over the long term.
“This is a total gamechanger,” Sheffield said. Five wells are now ramping up. “We created revenue. This whole time, the past five years, we have not had $1 coming back to us.”
The timing matters, both for the money-losing companies and for Australia, which could face natural gas shortfalls in the coming years. The U.S., Australia, and Qatar are by far the top liquefied natural gas exporters. Qatar is largely offline now because of the Iran war, and more of Australia’s offshore gas fields are drying up. The answer may lie onshore, in Beetaloo shale.
Sheffield’s capital influx was critical, but so was recruiting top American oilfield services players with shale expertise. Drilling leader Helmerich & Payne (H&P), tools and services giant Baker Hughes, and fracking leader Liberty Energy—the company cofounded by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright—all took ownership stakes in Tamboran. Beetaloo Energy recently contracted with Halliburton.
“Applying the American [fracking] recipe to another country is the way forward,” Sheffield said. A newly built pipeline and gas processing plant now move the gas. “The big problem was the lack of service companies and infrastructure. Talking the service companies into moving into this play was key to unlocking it.”
“It’s kind of like in that movie, ‘Field of Dreams,” he added. “’If you build it, they will come.’”
Formentera Partners
A 1979 minerals drilling program triggered an accidental gas blowout in the Beetaloo. That drew the attention of U.S. oil and gas power Amoco, later acquired by BP, which drilled a test well in 1984. It came up dry. Others tried and failed too, despite survey data showing the basin’s gassy potential.
That was still 20 years before U.S. shale operators would crack the code for shale rock with the right mix of horizontal drilling and slickwater fracking. Slickwater uses a mix of water, sand, and thin, friction-reducing chemicals rather than thicker gels to shatter dense shale rock deep underground and free the gas.
In 2008, in Texas, geologist and Petrohawk Energy cofounder Dick Stoneburner—a great name for a shale rock expert—helped pioneer drilling and fracking and led the discovery of the Eagle Ford Shale oil boom in South Texas. Three years later, Australian mining giant BHP bought Petrohawk for $12 billion as its entry into U.S. shale. Stoneburner was contractually required to assist with the transition, which brought him to Australia.
Once free of his BHP obligation, he was recruited to Tamboran’s board in 2014. That was the year Santos drilled its first Beetaloo test well using modified shale techniques. The results were modest and didn’t wow investors, but they remained promising.
“I got intrigued,” Stoneburner told Fortune. “Santos had limited shale experience, really none. They had a big learning curve.”
Stoneburner saw Santos’ flaws and, eventually, so did Bryan Sheffield. The wells needed wider diameters (wider casing) and slickwater fracking, not gelled fluids, to sustain enough pressure to produce ample gas flows. That required equipment available only in the U.S.
“This is when I knew the play was going to work. They just weren’t doing it right,” Sheffield said. They discovered Australian rigs could only accommodate smaller diameters. “That’s when I knew I had to talk a rig company into moving horizontal rigs to Australia.”
The pitch was easier than expected. Coming out of the pandemic, services companies had excess equipment and were eyeing growth. H&P shipped a high-specification rig, Chris Wright’s Liberty brought a fracking fleet, and Baker Hughes supplied tools and services. “It’s not off-the-shelf stuff. So it’s all worked out very, very well,” Stoneburner said.
Sheffield was first impressed by the detailed report on the Beetaloo put together by his former geologist, Tom Layman. After the pandemic, he was put in touch with Stoneburner. They knew of each other but hadn’t met in person. Sheffield then met Tamboran’s CEO at the time, Alabama native Joel Riddle.
Rather than only invest in Tamboran, Sheffield bought stakes in Beetaloo Energy and Falcon Oil & Gas, which was acquired by Tamboran earlier this year. He also formed Daly Waters.
“He was ready to go,” Stoneburner said, surprised by Sheffield’s speed and aggressiveness.
The largest acreage holder in the Beetaloo was Australian utility Origin Energy. It lacked shale experience and had no clear plan for the land. Under investor pressure to decarbonize and avoid fracking, Origin weighed selling.
In 2022, Tamboran, flush with Sheffield’s capital, pounced. The group acquired Origin for just over $40 million, plus a portion of future royalties, and became the basin’s top player. Sheffield and Stoneburner credit Riddle with getting the deal done.
“Origin was a really huge domino to fall,” Stoneburner said.
“We split the deal because it was too much for [Tamboran] to take on alone, and I kind of just paid out of my family office,” Sheffield elaborated. Tamboran and Formentera-backed Daly Waters essentially halved the acreage, and Sheffield forming a joint venture on Tamboran’s operations. Today he controls nearly 10% of Tamboran stock.
Formentera’s usual strategy is “singles and doubles” in mature U.S. shale basins, and Sheffield’s early Australian equity stakes followed that approach. The Origin deal changed that.
“I knew my investors would not like the Beetaloo because there’s a lot of risk,” Sheffield said. “The pension funds and the endowments, they did not invest. It was just too risky for them. The Beetaloo is the home run product, and it’s more tailored toward family offices.”
Since the Origin deal closed, Tamboran and Daly Waters have brought in their services partners to Australia, built a pipeline and processing facility, finished early permitting, and developed the pilot project, Shenandoah South. It is now finally online and poised to ramp up. Daly Waters plans to add a second H&P rig next year.
Japan’s INPEX became a major investor early this year, supporting the eventual gas supply to Australia’s LNG facilities serving Japan and the rest of Asia, especially INPEX’s Ichthys LNG hub in northwestern Australia. Tamboran also is a joint venture partner with Santos, which operates two LNG facilities the Beetaloo could supply: Darwin LNG and Gladstone LNG.
Last year, Tamboran made a change and removed Riddle as CEO, naming Stoneburner interim CEO. Scott Sheffield joined the board at the same time. He had served only three years on Santos’ board. Riddle is rightfully credited with building Tamboran up, but he also clashed with partners.
“I was there to help mend relationships,” Stoneburner said, which led to Tamboran’s Falcon acquisition.
In January, Tamboran hired Houston-based Todd Abbott—a 15-year veteran under Scott Sheffield’s Pioneer and a friend of Stoneburner. Bryan Sheffield also backed the move. “I was trained as an oilman underneath Scott Sheffield and his people, and Todd Abbott is the exact same,” he said. “We come from the same learning curves.”
Abbott read last year’s news of Stoneburner’s interim role and sent a text. “He just replied back, ‘We should talk,’” Abbott told Fortune.
Formentera Partners
Abbott’s most fun years were the “grow, grow, grow” days of the Permian Basin’s early shale oil boom at Pioneer. Now, he said, U.S. shale is about, “How do I get another penny out of it?” each day. Tamboran offers a chance to build a pioneering position in a basin again, a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”
“First production is the really big milestone,” Abbott said of the Beetaloo. “But it’s certainly not the finish line. It’s more of the starting line.”
The Beetaloo’s rock closely resembles the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, though the Beetaloo is 1.3 billion years old versus the Marcellus’ nearly 400 million.
Early well results are promising, Abbott said, but more are needed in the coming weeks and months to attract new investors and partners. Tamboran admits it needs a larger partner to keep scaling. Its stock is up more than 25% this year, but a new auditor’s report still flags its financial viability as a “going concern.” It isn’t profitable yet and is only now booking first revenue. “We’re out looking for the right strategic partner for the long term,” Abbott said.
Production is ramping up to 40 million cubic feet of gas per day. The plan is to grow to 100 million in 2028, once a gas-processing expansion is complete. The goal after that is more drilling and another pipeline by 2030. That would supply more Australia domestic gas beyond the Northern Territory and feed LNG exports. Until now, the territory has relied on emergency contracts with LNG exporters for gas-fired electricity.
“Once it’s fully connected, the Beetaloo is multiple times large enough to supply the Australian domestic market. It takes care of the expected shortage,” Abbott said. “But to really get this basin up to the scale, it needs LNG export access.”
Australian entrepreneur Patrick Elliott founded Tamboran in 2009 and remains on the board, but the Beetaloo quickly became an American-Aussie venture. “Seventeen years is a long time, but there was a lot of work to do, and it’s accelerating now,” Abbott said. “It’s an exponential curve, and you’re starting to see real traction.”
Nothing has underscored the Beetaloo’s potential this year more than the Iran war, which has kept Qatar’s LNG exports largely offline. That leaves the the world, especially Asia-Pacific, heavily dependent on U.S. and Australian LNG, and Australia will need more natural gas to ship. “It has focused everyone on the need for diversifying,” Abbott said. “Supply chains are critical, and energy security is national security.” He added that Australia can supply Asia more cheaply than the U.S. because of shorter shipping distances.
About 75% of Australia’s natural gas production is offshore, which limits growth. The rest was onshore coalbed methane, or coal seam gas, and those resources aren’t in growth mode either.
“There are really not a lot of other sources of this scale in the Asia-Pacific that can do it,” Abbott said. “I think it really put eyes on Australia and on the Beetaloo at a pretty critical moment for us.”
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The Trump administration has imposed sweeping new sanctions on the International Criminal Court as part of its campaign to dismantle the tribunal over investigations into the United States and its allies, including Israel.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the sanctions Friday, after the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to South African jurist Navi Pillay, a former judge at the ICC and other international courts. Trump has coveted that prize for himself.
“We will ban transactions with this rogue court, cutting off their resources and crippling its ability to operate against us,” Rubio said in a video address posted to social media. “The United States and the American people are not subject to the jurisdiction of this fake ICC.”
The sanctions cut the court off from U.S.-based financial services, technology companies and even using U.S. dollars. They set a six-month timeline for U.S. companies and individuals that have business with the court to wind that business down.
The ICC denounced the step as an attack on the rule of law and the foundations of international order, themes that Rubio had appeared to embrace only two days ago in a speech in front of the Acropolis in Athens.
“It is an attempt to obstruct the course of justice and to prevent the court from doing what it was created to do,” the court said in a statement. “It is an assault on the rule of law and on the very foundations of the international legal order which strikes at the simple principle that no one stands above the law.”
ICC President Tomoko Akane, a citizen of U.S. ally Japan, said the court would “continue to fully discharge its mandate, with independence and impartiality, acting only on the basis of the law and the evidence, for the sake of the countless victims of grave crimes.”
She also appealed to other ICC members for support. “This is not just about defending a single institution, but about safeguarding the international order grounded upon the rule of law.”
Rights groups also denounced the sanctions.
“This existential attack must fail,” said Erika Guevara Rosas, an Amnesty International senior director. “States must take concrete action to resist the imposition of these measures and actively protect the Court.”
The court’s host country of the Netherlands has been preparing for weeks for the move. One possible measure to mitigate sanctions is the EU “blocking statute,” which could be used to protect European court staff by preventing European companies from complying with the U.S. measures. Dutch Foreign Minister Tom Berendsen has called the blocking statute the “nuclear option” in countering possible sanctions, but said the Netherlands has been in talks with the European Commission to ensure that if it is necessary it can be quickly enacted.
In a joint statement, Canada, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom expressed strong disagreement with the U.S. sanctions.
“We will continue to work together to support the court’s vital work, uphold the rules-based international system, and advance accountability,” the statement said.
“If put into effect, these sanctions will have a significant impact on the court’s work, its dedicated staff and their families. They work every day to bring those accused of the most serious international crimes to justice and to support their victims.”
Rubio said U.S. allies should join in the U.S. actions. “If they do not, the United States will continue its campaign to dismantle the ICC, piece by piece, until Americans are threatened no longer,” he said.
A number of countries have withdrawn from the court this year, including Venezuela and Chad. The South Pacific island nation of Naoero was the most recent to announce it would quit.
___
Quell reported from The Hague, Netherlands. Associated Press writer Mike Corder contributed from The Hague.
Employment in Canada fell by 68,300 last month, more than erasing previous job gains this year as the trade war with the U.S. drags on.
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Something unprecedented is happening in the financial markets – for only the third time in 100 years, all major assets are simultaneously at all-time highs. I analyzed expert recommendations from Economic Times on how to invest ₹10 lakh across different risk profiles.
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Ankur Warikoo is an internet entrepreneur and India’s leading career mentor, reaching:
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Featured in Fortune Magazine’s 40 under 40 List for India, Forbes Top 100 Digital Creators list, and LinkedIn India’s Top Voices, he brings real-world insights from his MBA at Indian School of Business, his time as CEO of Groupon India and nearbuy.com, and his journey of building multiple successful ventures.
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