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Venture capitalist Bill Gurley warns workers who went through the ‘college conveyor belt’ and chased safe jobs that they’ll feel AI’s disruption first

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Venture capitalist Bill Gurley warns workers who went through the ‘college conveyor belt’ and chased safe jobs that they’ll feel AI’s disruption first



Professionals have taught for generations that succeeding in school and attending an elite university would guarantee a rewarding six-figure career. But within a matter of years, AI has disrupted the world of work, and it’s fast taking over the office roles humans were once promised. Now, venture capitalist Bill Gurley cautions workers against blindly following the career blueprint.

“This is new and fast, and it’s attacking jobs that haven’t been attacked in the past,” Gurley said recently during the On with Kara Swisher podcast. “It’s creating a lot of anxiety, but I don’t know that we can put it back in the bottle.”

The prolific tech financier, famous for his early investments in Uber and Zillow, is skeptical that the government could pass AI regulation or pull off a massive reskilling effort. So as the technology continues to automate traditionally stable and lucrative roles, like lawyers and software engineers, it’s imperative that workers actually be invested in their profession—or risk facing the chopping block. 

“The people that are most at risk are the ones that are sitting idly in the job and don’t really have a why or a purpose for it,” Gurley revealed. “A lot of the people that go through that college conveyor belt, that are chasing a safe job, that end up working as a widget or a cog in an industry they may not love—I think they are ripe for disruption.”

The Benchmark Capital general partner acknowledges it’s easier said than done, but the best path forward is to “craft your own career path” and tailor it to their distinct skills. 

For those who can’t switch sectors or become self-employed, AI can act as career “jet fuel” that can make them even better at their jobs and indispensable to their employers. 

“If it’s out of your control, I just would say understand what it’s capable of in your industry and be the most AI aware person in your job,” Gurley advised. “You’re going to then be the last person that they want to get rid of.”

The tech investor says college has turned into a ‘pressure cooker’ 

Gurley explores the idea that chasing a career of passion is a strategic edge, and not fluffy advice, in his new book “Runnin’ Down a Dream.” He’s also one of several business leaders questioning the efficacy of how young professionals are trained to approach college. 

The investor has noticed a few worrying trends that may inhibit young professionals from following their true aspirations, hurting their career success. Gurley explained that kids today are “programmed from a time perspective” more than other generations; the budding talent start worrying about having a stacked resume from a young age, and now, some colleges require students to apply with a major in mind. 

These restraints don’t allow them to freely explore what jobs they’d enjoy, and instead funnels them into a professional path very quickly. He believes that’s part of the reason why so many people are checked out at work—a group that’s most susceptible to disruption. 

“There seems to me to be somewhat of a problem out there in that people aren’t landing where they’re passionate about what they’re doing,” Gurley explained. “I don’t think it’s anyone’s fault, but I think we’ve turned the college matriculation process into this pressure cooker.”

Business leaders agree that AI-savvy, passionate workers will succeed 

The CEO of LinkedIn, Ryan Roslansky, echoes some of Gurley’s philosophy about career success in the AI era. Workers won’t be able to simply coast on a glitzy Ivy League degree—they need to have passion for their professions and the necessary tech skills to succeed in their careers. 

“My guess is that the future of work belongs not anymore to the people that have the fanciest degrees or went to the best colleges,” Roslansky said during a fireside chat at the platform’s San Francisco office last year. 

Instead, he predicted talent most likely to land a job and succeed are “the people who are adaptable, forward thinking, ready to learn, and ready to embrace these tools…It really kind of opens up the playing field in a way that I think we’ve never seen before.”

Fei-Fei Li, a Stanford professor and CEO of AI startup World Labs dubbed the “Godmother of AI,” says being tech-savvy on the job matters more than anything else. 

Now, it’s essential for professionals to “superpower” themselves quickly with the tools, she advised. And Nvidia leader Jensen Huang agrees that AI-savvy workers undeniably have a leg up in the tough labor market. 

He said that every job will be affected by the technology immediately—and it’s on workers to ensure their future success by keeping up with the program. 

“You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI,” Huang said at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference in 2025. 

“I would recommend 100% of everybody take advantage of AI. Don’t be that person who ignores this technology and as a result, loses your job.”

Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack

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Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack


Typically, mortgage rates fall shortly after geopolitical incidents unfold.

This time, they bounced higher on the Iran attack news, with 10-year bond yields climbing a big nine basis points on the day.

That will result in higher 30-year fixed mortgage rates just days after a joint U.S.-Israeli operation took out Iranian leadership.

The unexpected move led to an immediate increase in oil prices as stability in the Middle East is once again threatened.

Often, investors will seek so-called “safe haven” assets like government bonds when these things happen, but so far that hasn’t been the case.

Mortgage Rates Back Above 6% on War Rumblings

Mortgage rates are back above the key 6% threshold to start the week after experiencing their best week in years.

The 30-year fixed had been sub-6% for much of last week, reaching levels not seen since mid-2022 by some measures.

But now we’re back to a 6-handle as the conflict in the Middle East plays out.

The initial reaction by investors was to sell pretty much everything, including stocks and bonds.

Often, investors will make the “flight to safety” trade and move from high-risk stocks to low-risk bonds. But today it’s been a wider selloff.

At the same time, MBS prices are sharply lower, which will translate to higher mortgage rates for consumers.

Per Mortgage News Daily, MBS prices were “significantly weaker” to start the week, with “strong downward movement” likely to push mortgage rates up quite a bit higher.

And indeed they were back up to 6.12%, a big one-day move higher (+ 13 bps) that puts them firmly back into the 6s.

The company’s prior read from Friday was 5.99%.

They could stay there for some time as well, unless we see that typical move into bonds like we usually do when there are world conflicts.

Spiking Oil Prices Puts Pressure Back on Inflation

The issue this time is oil prices have surged higher in the wake of the conflict as major supply disruptions are expected.

For example, Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery halted production after it was hit by a drone.

And Iran reportedly shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which is referred to as the world’s most important oil route.

That led to a big jump in oil prices, which can/will trickle down to higher prices at the pump, along with higher prices on goods as increased transportation costs are passed along to consumers.

This can exacerbate inflation, which has been an ongoing battle and one we seemed to finally be making headway on.

Inflation is the enemy of bonds, so if this persists, expect mortgage rates to be higher all else equal.

But that’s the big question. On the one hand, bond yields (and mortgage rates) are a lot higher today.

On the other, they remain near lows not seen since 2022.

So while today and perhaps this week might be a setback, if you zoom out, they’re still at the lowest levels in years.

However, this level of global instability could dampen the home buying mood so it’s an intangible we need to consider as well, rates aside.

Will Mortgage Rates Resume Their Move Lower Soon?

Like prior conflicts, this situation could prove to be short-lived, and mortgage rates may resume their path lower.

While bond yields jumped today, they had fallen quite a bit leading up to this incident.

In fact, the 10-year bond yield was hovering around 4.30% a month ago, and fell below 4% last week.

Even after today’s move higher, it remains fairly close to 4%.

Similarly, the 30-year fixed, which had been priced around 6.20% a month ago, had fallen to around 6%.

So despite rates rising about .125% today on the news, we remain in a good place and the fact that bonds had already been on a winning streak might explain the pullback today.

That remains to be seen, and in the meantime you’ll need to be extra cautious if floating your mortgage rate.

Expect a lot of volatility with mortgage rates as this very fluid situation continues to develop, but remember that the 30-year fixed remains near a 3.5-year low, which is the big silver lining.

Colin Robertson
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Reeves promises to guide UK economy through Middle East conflict

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Reeves promises to guide UK economy through Middle East conflict




Reeves promises to guide UK economy through Middle East conflict

The Best Policy for Writing a Resume in 2026 (13% of Candidates Don’t Do This)

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Editor’s Note: This story originally appeared on Monster.

If you’ve ever wondered how closely employers actually check resumes, you’re not alone. Recent Monster research shows many job seekers believe verification is inconsistent and that belief is shaping how people present themselves in today’s hiring market.

According to Monster’s Credibility Gap Report, a national survey of more than 1,000 U.S. job seekers, 13% admit they have recently lied or included misleading information on a resume.

At the same time, 56% believe employers only “sometimes” verify resume details, and just 20% think employers verify details most of the time.

That mismatch creates a credibility gap: Job seekers assume checks are selective, feel pressure to “polish,” and sometimes cross the line between strong positioning and misrepresentation.

So what does this mean for your job search and how can you stand out without risking your credibility?

Key findings

  • Resume honesty isn’t universal: 13% have recently lied or included misleading information on a resume.
  • Most job seekers expect selective verification: 56% believe employers only verify resume details some of the time.
  • AI is influencing resumes through editing: 61% say they don’t use AI tools, and those who do use them to refine language, formatting, or alignment.
  • Polish is valued more than it’s practiced: 76% say a polished LinkedIn headshot is important, but most still use casual photos.

Most job seekers expect spot checks, not full audits

Monster’s research suggests many candidates believe resume verification is partial at best:

  • 20% say employers verify resume details most of the time
  • 56% say verification happens sometimes
  • 21% say it happens rarely
  • 3% say it never happens

That perception matters. When verification feels inconsistent, some candidates take more liberties with how they present dates, titles, or skills, assuming those details may never be scrutinized.

But selective verification doesn’t mean no verification. Employers often focus on the details that matter most to performance, especially once a candidate moves deeper into the hiring process.

Where resume gray areas tend to show up

Among job seekers who admit to misleading information, Monster found the most commonly misrepresented areas include:

  • Dates of employment: 39%
  • Responsibilities or scope: 39%
  • Skills or tools proficiency: 35%
  • Job titles: 33%
  • Results or metrics: 19%
  • Education credentials: 15%
  • Certifications: 7%

These aren’t usually outright fabrications. More often, they reflect stretching timelines, inflating scope, or overstating proficiency, especially when candidates feel pressure to compete.

AI is shaping resumes, but mostly as an editor, not an author

Despite concerns about AI-written resumes, Monster’s data shows most job seekers are still doing the writing themselves. 61% say they do not use AI tools at all for resume writing or editing.

Among those who do use AI, it’s primarily for refinement:

  • Grammar and spell check: 28%
  • Rewriting or shortening content: 22%
  • Matching resumes to job descriptions: 20%
  • Formatting or design help: 19%
  • Writing bullet points: 16%
  • Keyword or ATS optimization: 12%

LinkedIn polish follows the same pattern

Presentation matters, but adoption lags behind belief. Monster found that 76% of job seekers say a polished LinkedIn headshot is important, yet most still rely on casual photos:

What candidates believe:

  • Moderately important: 59%
  • Extremely important: 17%
  • Not important: 24%

What candidates actually use:

  • Casual phone photo (65%)
  • Professional headshot (22%)
  • Real photo, AI-enhanced (8%)
  • AI-generated image from selfies (5%)

How to stand out without crossing the line

If you’re worried about falling behind by being “too honest,” Monster’s data suggests a better strategy: clarity, specificity, and proof.

What to do:

  • Be precise about skills and tools. Instead of listing everything, focus on what you can actually use on day one.
  • Use results you can explain. Metrics matter most when you can walk through how you achieved them.
  • Frame growth honestly. It’s okay to show progression—as long as titles, dates, and scope align with reality.
  • Use AI as a reviewer, not a replacement. Let it improve clarity and alignment, not invent experience.
  • Assume verification may happen later, especially for roles tied to compliance, seniority, or technical skills.

Most job seekers want to be hired for their real skills, but pressure can blur the line. Staying on the right side of that line protects both your reputation and your long-term career.

Credibility is a competitive advantage

Monster’s research highlights a hiring environment built on selective trust. Job seekers believe verification is inconsistent, and many respond by optimizing their presentation, sometimes too far. But in a market where employers are increasingly focused on fit, skills, and long-term performance, credibility itself becomes a differentiator.

The strongest candidates aren’t the most polished; they’re the most believable.

To support job seekers navigating these pressures, Monster has launched the Monster Resume Builder, a free tool designed to help candidates create polished, ATS-ready resumes in minutes without crossing into misrepresentation.

Methodology

This survey was conducted by Pollfish on January 19, 2026, among 1,002 U.S. job seekers.

Respondents answered a series of multiple-choice questions exploring resume-writing and editing habits, AI use in resume development, perceptions of employer verification practices, and LinkedIn profile presentation.

The sample included representation across generations, with 17% Gen Z (born 1997 or later), 25% Millennials (born 1981–1996), 28% Gen X (born 1965–1980), and 31% Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964). Respondents identified their gender as 50% male and 50% female.

Capital One Business Checking Bonus: How to Earn $500

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Capital One Business Checking Bonus: How to Earn $500


Capital One Business Checking Bonus

🔃 Update: This offer is available again, but only the $500 bonus. Must open new account with promo code SBOFFER500. Within 30 days of account opening, deposit at least $5,000 from an external source (cash deposits and funds sourced from an account with another financial institution that was not affiliated with Capital One prior to January 1, 2025, qualify; transfers between Capital One accounts do not qualify); 2) maintain a minimum end-of-day balance of $5,000 for at least 60 days within 90 days of account opening; 3) make 10 qualifying electronic transactions within 90 days of account opening.

Capital One is offering a big bonus for new business checking accounts. You can earn either $500 with a $5K deposit or $1,000 with a $30K deposit. However, this offer is for business cardholders only. Let’s check out the details.

How to Earn This Bonus

  • Open a new Basic or Enhanced Checking account with promo code BIZBONUS1000. Only customers already having a Capital One Business credit card for the last 90 days will be eligible for the offer. Please login during application to see if you qualify – see all offer restrictions.
  • Deposit required balance from non-Capital One accounts within 30 days of account opening and maintain the minimum required end of day balance for at least 60 days during the first 90 days of account opening. 
    • $500 with at least a $5,000 balance OR
    • $1,000 with at least a $30,000 balance.
  • Make 10 qualifying electronic transactions within 90 days of account opening. Qualifying transactions include electronic wire, electronic ACH, and remote check deposit.

Bonus will be deposited into your new business checking account after you complete these steps.

Are You Eligible?

Here are the eligibility details for this bonus:

  • Offer available nationwide.
  • Applicants who are users on Capital One Business checking accounts open on or after January 1, 2025 are ineligible for the bonus. 
  • Only one account per business will be eligible for the bonus offer.

Account Fees

  • Basic Checking has a $15 monthly service fee, waived with $2,000 minimum balance.
  • There’s no early account closing fee.

Guru’s Wrap-Up

This is a good bonus, especially the $500 tier which gives you a much better ROI.  But even the $1,000 bonus is still a great deal compared to what you would earn elsewhere interest wise. You only nee to keep the $5K or $30K balance in the account for 60 days.

Bank bonuses are a great way to earn some extra income, often from the comfort of your home. You can take a look at my bank bonus results for 2022 where I made over $6,000. If this bonus is not for you, then you can check our full list of available bank bonuses. You can also access bonuses available in your state by clicking the article tags below, or visiting dannydealguru.com/tag/NY-bank-bonus/. Just replace NY with your state or with “nationwide”.

And, if you’re new to bank account bonuses, you can learn more about churning bank accounts here.

Use the social media buttons below to share this article. Your support and engagement is always greatly appreciated.

💡 Link & Full Details

  • OFFER PAGE
  • Max Bonus: $500
  • Account Type: Business Basic Checking
  • Availability: Nationwide (business cardholders only) 
  • Type of Inquiry: Soft pull
  • Direct Deposit Requirement: No
  • Other Requirements: $5K deposit/balance & 10 transactions
  • Credit Card Funding: No
  • Monthly Fee: $15 (waive with $2K balance)
  • Early Account Closing Fee: $25
  • Expiration Date: 9/15/25 11/20/25 none

HT: Doctor of Credit

Share Bank Bonuses and other deals with us and our readers

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SCAM BY COIN DCX PIEPIE COIN | FRAUD COIN DCX #coindcxapp #scammer #cryptocurrency

source

The Growing Movement to End Property Taxes Continues in Kentucky, And What It Means For Investors

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After many years of back-and-forth, the quest to end property taxes has intensified. Last year, BiggerPockets reported on eight states that were weighing options to reform or outright eliminate property taxes. This year, another state has thrown its hat into the ring.

Kentucky is pushing to freeze property taxes, but specifically for seniors. While that’s a commendable feel-good retirement strategy for the over-65s, it could also present challenges and opportunities for real estate investors as other states jump on board with senior-friendly tax rules.

What Kentucky’s Senior Tax Freeze Would Actually Do

Kentucky lawmakers are advancing Senate Bill 51, a proposed constitutional amendment that would freeze property tax assessments for homeowners aged 65 and older on their primary residence. The measure would lock in the assessed value on a senior’s home starting either the year they turn 65 or the year they purchase the property, whichever comes later, WDRB reports. Seniors would still pay taxes, but only on the frozen value, even if the tax rate increased.

“For instance, if your home was $200,000 when you turn 65 and it goes up to $300,000, you will still pay the tax on the $200,000 in whatever rate it is,” bill sponsor Sen. Mike Nemes (R-Shepherdsville) said in a statement.

“I, too, get emails constantly from people that say, ‘I’m going to have to sell my home or move out of my home because I can’t afford the taxes,’” Sen. Cassie Chambers Armstrong, D-Louisville, said, as WDRB reported. “We know that, for those low-income seniors, homeownership is how they build and transfer wealth to the next generation.”

HousingWire reports that the bill has already cleared the state Senate committee and must be approved by three-fifths of both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly before going to voters in November as a constitutional amendment.

A Wider Movement to Shield Older Homeowners From Increasing Property Taxes

Kentucky is just one state examining ways to alleviate property tax strain on seniors. Many states now offer some form of senior property tax relief, typically through exemptions, freezes, or deferral programs, that reduce the taxable value or allow payments to be postponed until a sale or death, according to The Mortgage Reports.

New York and Texas

In New York, a recent law allows senior homeowners a property tax exemption of up to 65% of their home’s assessed value, up from 50%, starting Jan. 1, 2026. 

Texas lawmakers are also considering something similar. A proposal known as Operation Double Nickel would reduce the threshold for certain school-related property tax benefits from 65 to 55 and freeze the school portion of the bill at its value when the homeowner reaches that age. Analysts estimate that Texans could save around $1,000 a year when the bill is introduced.

The national view

Property taxes are a key factor in deciding where retirees want to live, the New York Times reports, based on a study by WalletHub. It’s why Florida, which, in addition to its mild weather, has no state income tax.

How a Senior Tax Freeze Could Shape Investor Opportunity

If the loss of property tax revenue from senior housing is offsetby increasing taxes on other homeowners, the effects could further decimate affordability. In the case ofinvestors, who tend to own rentals in pass-through structures where property taxes factor directly into NOI and cash flow rather than providing a straightforward personal deduction, it would take a big bite out of cash flow. 

The bottom line is that cities need tax revenue to function properly. Should seniors see their taxes freeze, the shortfall would need to be made up from somewhere.

The Kentucky Center for Economic Policy, a nonpartisan research organization, warned about the effect decreased tax revenue could have on school and local services. In 2023, Kentucky collected $4.94 billion in property taxes on real estate, vehicles, boats, airplanes, and business equipment, with most of that revenue coming from real estate, according to Houses Marketplace.

The center wrote:

“The property tax is a critical component of a diverse, resilient tax system because it adds stability to revenues. Capping, freezing, or even eliminating property taxfor broad groups of individuals, as some are proposing, disproportionately benefits the wealthy and harms Kentucky communities becauseit serves as the primary source of revenue for so many local services. The property tax can be modifiedin ways that would make it fairer, but it should be protectedas a vital revenue source.”

The opportunity

On the positive side, a region with a stable senior population, particularly those who have relocated from higher-tax regions, would boost demand for both owner-occupied housing and rental housing from older tenants, many of whom don’t want to be saddled with the financial obligations of owning a home. That could strengthen rental demand in age-friendly submarkets, especially for single-story homes, small multifamily properties, and accessible units.

Senior investors could increase their cash flow

Low real estate taxes would benefit seniors who are also real estate investors. 

First, if they do not have to pay higher taxes on their personal residence, they would have more cash in their pockets. Second, if their personal residence were a two-to-four-unit property, they would presumably be eligible for a tax break on some or all of the residence, while also benefiting from the cash flow of having a tenant—a double win when their working life is over.

At the federal level, a New York Times guide to filing 2025 tax returns notes that individuals 65 and older can claim an extra deduction of up to $6,000 for single filers and $12,000 for married couples, subject to income-based phaseouts. That deduction can strengthen after-tax cash flow for older mom-and-pop investors who hold rentals personally or through pass-through structures in which rental income flows through to their individual returns.  

Final Thoughts

While low-tax states for seniors might have some long-term implications for real estate investors—both positive and negative—it’s too early to predict what they will be. However, if you are a senior or approaching senior age and a real estate investor, taking advantage of various states’ tax relief measures can boost your cash flow, whether it simply results in less cash going out of your pocket in a single-family personal residence or by boosting your net income in an owner-occupied two-to-four-family residence.

3 Things to Know About Walmart Stock Before You Buy

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3 Things to Know About Walmart Stock Before You Buy


Investors don’t need to buy the latest and greatest technology enterprises to achieve spectacular results. Walmart (WMT 0.60%) is a case in point. Its share price is up 183% in the past five years and 448% over the trailing decade (as of Feb. 26). This might come as a surprise, as the business flirts with a trillion-dollar market cap.

If you’re impressed by Walmart’s stellar performance, maybe it’s time to take a closer look. Here are three things investors need to know about this retail stock before buying.

Image source: Getty Images.

A steady performer with a wide moat

The current macro environment, particularly in the U.S., can be characterized as a K-shaped economy. This describes the divergence between higher-income and lower-income consumers, with the former faring better than the latter. This backdrop doesn’t faze Walmart, whose entire value proposition is predicated on providing as much value as it can to shoppers. This cuts across income cohorts. And it’s something that will always be in demand.

This points to the reality that Walmart is one of the most stable businesses that investors can find in the market. It reported same-store sales (SSS) growth in the U.S. of 4.6% in Q4 2026 (ended Jan. 31). This was at least the 28th straight quarter that it posted positive SSS. This is a resilient company that navigated the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain bottlenecks, surging inflation, rising interest rates, and tariff uncertainty.

There is also almost zero risk that Walmart gets disrupted or becomes obsolete anytime soon. That’s because it has a wide and durable economic moat.

The company’s gargantuan scale helps fuel its success. It generated $706 billion in net sales in fiscal 2026. Consequently, Walmart has unmatched bargaining power when buying merchandise from suppliers. And compared to smaller competitors, it’s better able to spread out certain fixed expenses.

Walmart’s brand name is also a key strategic asset. Customers have come to expect low prices, a massive assortment, and omnichannel capabilities. Visibility is also broad, thanks to 5,200 total stores (including Sam’s Club) just in the U.S.

Upgrading the business

Despite what investors might initially assume, Walmart is not a dinosaur of a retail enterprise. The business has truly become a tech-forward machine.

It has adapted with the rise of online shopping. E-commerce revenue jumped 24% year over year in Q4, more than four times faster than the overall company. Walmart’s advantage is its physical footprint, as its stores assist in fulfillment capabilities. “We can serve 95% of America in three hours,” CFO John David Rainey said on the Q4 2026 earnings call.

Memberships also shouldn’t be overlooked. Paid subscription service Walmart+ was launched in September 2020. It now has over 28 million members, bringing in a sticky income stream.

Walmart is making a splash in advertising, which saw revenue soar 37% during Q4. And it’s innovating with artificial intelligence, most notably with its Sparky shopping assistant.

Altogether, Walmart’s push to become a more digitally enabled business supports its bottom line. It introduces higher-margin revenue.

Walmart Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-0.60%) $-0.77

Current Price

$127.18

Don’t ignore valuation

There’s no denying that Walmart is a high-quality business. Its net income is up 97% just in the past three years. That supports management’s ability to return capital to shareholders.

Investors seeking a Dividend King don’t need to look any further. The company just announced another payout hike. It’s been 53 straight years that the dividend has increased.

For those that want a winning opportunity, however, now is a terrible time to put capital at risk. The valuation is excessive, providing no margin of safety. The market is asking that prospective investors pay a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.6 to buy this retail stock. That’s almost double the S&P 500 index’s multiple. Walmart is poised to disappoint its shareholders in the years ahead.

Live Nation Antitrust Trial: 3 things to know as landmark case kicks off in New York court

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MBW Explains is a series in which we dig behind the headlines, via data and context, to improve your understanding of key stories. Only MBW+ subscribers have unlimited access to these articles. MBW Explains is supported by Reservoir.

Nearly two years after the US Department of Justice and a group of state attorneys general sued Live Nation Entertainment, the case has finally reached a Manhattan courtroom.

Jury selection began Monday (March 2), with opening statements expected tomorrow.

The trial, expected to last five to six weeks, will test whether the world’s largest live entertainment company has illegally monopolized key parts of the concert industry — and whether the 2010 merger that united Live Nation and Ticketmaster should be unwound.

But the case arriving at trial looks substantially different from the one filed in May 2024. Court rulings have narrowed the government’s claims, the DOJ’s antitrust leadership has been thrown into turmoil, and Live Nation tried, and failed, to avoid a jury altogether.

Here are three things to know as the trial gets underway.

1. The government’s case has been narrowed — but its most potent claims survived

Judge Arun Subramanian trimmed the government’s case considerably in his February 18 summary judgment ruling. He dismissed the claim that Live Nation monopolizes the national concert promotion market and threw out the allegation that its conduct has resulted in higher ticket prices for fans.

But what survived may matter more than what didn’t. The jury will hear evidence on three core allegations: that Ticketmaster has monopolized primary ticketing at major concert venues through allegedly coercive, long-term exclusive contracts; that Live Nation illegally ‘ties’ access to its amphitheater network to its promotion services, effectively forcing artists who want to play Live Nation venues to hire Live Nation as their promoter; and that a specific ticketing agreement between Live Nation and Oak View Group is anticompetitive.

The judge found that the government “plausibly paints a grim picture for new entrants” and that Live Nation had “vastly overstated” the competitiveness of the ticketing market. On the tying claim, he wrote that “a reasonable jury could certainly find that artists were coerced into going with Live Nation as their promoter to get into its amphitheaters.”

Live Nation then launched a barrage of last-ditch motions: requesting reconsideration, seeking an interlocutory appeal, asking to bifurcate the trial, and challenging the states’ damages expert. As MBW reported, the DOJ called the delay bid a “desperate plea” and argued it was “statutorily barred.”

In a February 27 opinion (which you can read in full here), Judge Subramanian denied all four motions in a single order.

He was particularly pointed on reconsideration: Live Nation had raised legal arguments it failed to present during summary judgment, including a novel claim that tying requires formal market definition for the tied product.

The judge conducted a thorough analysis of the precedent and concluded it does not, dismissing the out-of-circuit cases Live Nation cited as providing “little-to-no reasoning” for their position.

2. The DOJ’s antitrust division is in turmoil — and Live Nation has been pushing for a settlement

The trial is proceeding against a backdrop of political turmoil at the Justice Department.

On February 12, Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater (pictured) — the head of the DOJ’s Antitrust Division — resigned after the White House reportedly requested her departure, less than a year into the role following a bipartisan Senate confirmation. Her top deputy, Mark Hamer, resigned shortly before that. Last week, one of the DOJ’s trial lawyers on the case disclosed that he too is leaving.

Bloomberg and Semafor reported in recent weeks that Live Nation has been attempting to negotiate a settlement for months, with discussions taking place with DOJ officials outside the Antitrust Division — reportedly over Slater’s objections. Those efforts have so far been rebuffed.

The political dynamics have drawn scrutiny. A group of seven Democratic senators led by Amy Klobuchar wrote to Attorney General Pam Bondi, warning that Live Nation may be “attempting to evade responsibility by convincing Justice Department leadership to settle the case on terms favorable to the company.”

Live Nation appointed Trump ally Ric Grenell to its board last year, and a Trump-aligned attorney who has advised the company celebrated Slater’s departure on X, writing: “Good riddance.”

The state attorneys general, largely insulated from these federal dynamics, have made clear they will press ahead.

California AG Rob Bonta issued a statement arguing that Live Nation “has manipulated the market and made itself untouchable by any competitor — not because it is better, but because it has created a monopoly.”

3. The DOJ wants to force a breakup, but that outcome is far from certain

Since the lawsuit was filed, the headline outcome has always been the potential forced separation of Live Nation and Ticketmaster — an unwinding of the 2010 merger that the government now seeks to reverse.

That remedy remains technically on the table, but its prospects have narrowed.

The dismissal of the concert promotion monopoly claim weakens the government’s narrative that Live Nation’s vertical integration across ticketing and promotion is itself the competitive problem. Live Nation’s EVP of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs, Dan Wall, seized on this in a since-deleted blog post titled ‘It’s Time to Move On.’ He argued that the dismissal of the concert promotion claims “undermines any serious argument for breaking up Live Nation and Ticketmaster” and “ends the narrative that concert promotion and ticketing are ‘mutually reinforcing monopolies’.”

But the vertical integration theory hasn’t disappeared entirely. The surviving tying claim, that Live Nation allegedly leverages its amphitheaters to coerce artists into its promotion services, still rests on the interplay between the company’s venue, promotion, and ticketing businesses. If the jury finds that this conduct is anticompetitive, a judge could still conclude that structural separation is the appropriate remedy.

Under the trial structure, the jury will determine liability and any damages owed to the states on behalf of consumers. If the government prevails, Judge Subramanian would then separately decide the remedy — including whether to order a breakup.

If Live Nation is found liable, the states are seeking financial compensation on behalf of fans who were allegedly overcharged. Their damages expert, Dr. Rosa Abrantes-Metz, has built a model using AXS,  the next largest primary ticketing company, as a benchmark for what pricing might look like in a competitive market.

According to Judge Subramanian’s February 27 ruling, her analysis works in two steps: first, she calculates how much more Ticketmaster charges venues than AXS does, what she calls the ‘supracompetitive charge,’  then uses a tax-incidence model to estimate how much of that overcharge venues pass on to fans through higher ticket fees.

The February 27 ruling upheld the admissibility of her model, though the judge noted that the final calculation of total damages, accounting for purchaser residency, applicable statutes of limitations, and other variables, may be addressed in a post-trial proceeding rather than put to the jury.

The trial will feature testimony from a parade of music industry figures. Witness lists include Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino, Live Nation president Joe Berchtold, SeatGeek CEO Jack Groetzinger, AEG Presents CEO Jay Marciano, Roc Nation’s Desiree Perez, and Mumford & Sons’ Ben Lovett. Kid Rock — who told a Senate hearing in January that the Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger “has failed miserably” — is among the few performing artists cited in court filings, though he is currently working with Live Nation for his latest tour.

Whatever the outcome, the trial itself marks a significant moment, and its implications will extend well beyond ticketing, touching on how vertical integration, exclusive dealing, and market power are understood across the entertainment industry.

The question now is whether the government, despite its internal upheaval, can make its case stick.

Reservoir (Nasdaq: RSVR) is a publicly traded, global independent music company with operations across music publishing, recorded music, and artist management. Music Business Worldwide

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The easiest deals brokers are missing right now — and why they don’t start at renewal




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