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Bank Stress Tests Are Coming in Late June. These Big Banks Could Reward Shareholders Next.


Every year in late June, the largest U.S. banks get the results of their stress tests, which are designed by the Federal Reserve to determine the capital strength of a bank in the event of a recession or some other economic shock or stress.

The tests were put in place via the Dodd-Frank bill following the 2007-2009 financial crisis to make sure that banks could navigate a similar economic meltdown.

The results of the tests determine how much of a capital buffer that banks should build into their finances — called the stress capital buffer.

Image source: Getty Images.

To summarize, Dodd-Frank established a minimum amount of capital that large banks must have through the Common Equity Tier 1, or CET1, ratio. If the bank loses a lot of capital during the annual hypothetical stress tests, then the Fed imposes a higher stress capital buffer on top of the minimum requirements so that it can better handle such a scenario. If the bank performed well and handled the stress test, it would get a lower stress capital buffer add-on.

Investors should know that this is a key time for bank stocks, as the stress tests could provide a boost for the stock, or detract from it. This year is particularly interesting for a few reasons.

Bank stocks surged last year on strong stress test results

Last year the major banks passed the stress test with flying colors, with the stress capital buffers of the largest banks decreasing significantly from 2024. It may have had something to do with a stress test that was considered easier and less rigorous than those in the past.

Of the biggest banks, Bank of America (BAC +1.93%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.60%), and Wells Fargo (WFC +2.94%) all saw their buffers drop to the bare minimum of 2.5%. Wells Fargo saw the biggest drop, from 3.70%, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America fell from 3.30% and 3.20%, respectively. Morgan Stanley (MS +1.88%), Goldman Sachs (GS +1.53%), and Citigroup (C +1.72%) also saw declines, but not to the bare minimum.

This brought down the CET1 ratios for the banks, which had immediate benefits. One, it shows that the bank is healthy; two, it means that less needs to be locked up as an equity cushion so that money could be allocated elsewhere; and three, it allows banks to return more capital to shareholders via dividend increases or buybacks.

JPMorgan Chase Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(1.60%) $4.74

Current Price

$301.32

Last year, all of the banks boosted their dividends in the third quarter of 2025, except JPMorgan Chase, which did it in Q4. Also, several large banks did share buybacks following the stress tests. These are favorable events for investors.

The banks generally saw their stock prices jump following the stress tests, and they finished the year strong. The six largest banks posted stock price returns of more than 25% in 2025, with Citigroup leading the way at 66%.

What to expect this year

This year, the test is considered tougher than last year’s, meaning the Fed concocted a more adverse scenario in which unemployment spikes to 10%.

However, the Fed voted back in February to freeze the buffers for 2026, so the numbers won’t change, no matter how badly a bank fails or how fantastically it succeeds. The reason? The Fed is taking public feedback on new calculations models for the tests. Among the potential changes is a rolling two-year average to smooth out the potential for volatility. The freeze is in place until 2027 as these changes to the model are finalized.

So, in a way, this is good because the reduced buffers from last year remain in place, meaning the banks won’t have to raise their capital cushions. That, in turn, frees up funding to reward shareholders with dividend increases. Since 2020, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley have boosted their dividends in the third quarter, while Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase have done so since 2022. 

However, if the stress test results aren’t great for a bank, those results will be known when the Fed releases them by June 30. And even if the buffers don’t change, investors will know that the bank is at a higher risk than it was the previous year. That could potentially put a damper on dividends and buybacks.

Last year, the results were released on Friday, June 27. This year, look for them around June 25 or 26.

One difference is that most large bank stocks are down year to date this year and trading at lower valuations compared to last year. If stress test results are strong, the lower valuations could be an additional catalyst for these stocks.

The U.S. Research Talent Pipeline Is in Trouble


Researchers training in the United States are thinking about working elsewhere. Here’s how American companies should respond.

Wyndham Summer Promotion: Earn Up to 15,000 Bonus Points


Wyndham Rewards Summer Promotion

Wyndham Rewards has launched its annual summer promotion, giving members a chance to earn up to 15,000 bonus points on eligible stays. The promotion rewards longer stays with larger bonuses, and the maximum bonus is enough for up to two free nights at participating Wyndham properties that price at 7,500 points per night.

The offer is valid on stays completed through September 30, 2026, making it a good opportunity for summer travelers to earn extra points on upcoming trips. Let’s dive into the details.

Offer Details

After registering, Wyndham Rewards members can earn:

  • Stay 2 consecutive nights and earn 7,500 bonus points
  • Stay 3 consecutive nights and earn 12,500 bonus points
  • Stay 4 or more consecutive nights and earn 15,000 bonus points

You are limited to 15,000 bonus points total across one or two qualified stays.

Boking info:

  • Booking Window: June 2 – September 3, 2026
  • Travel Window: Complete stays by September 30, 2026
  • Valid at: Participating Wyndham hotels worldwide. Not valid at hotels in China (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan).
  • PROMO PAGE

Guru’s Wrap-up

This is a pretty straightforward Wyndham promotion and one of the better hotel offers available this summer. The biggest bonus is for a 4-night stay, and 15,000 Wyndham Rewards points can be enough for up to two free nights at select properties.

If you have any Wyndham stays coming up this summer, make sure to register before completing your stay.

A Day in the Life of a Business Management Student | Rudra at Greenwich Business School



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When Trade Payables Become Debt


Current accounting standards, including IFRS 7 and IAS 7, require disclosure of these programs, but disclosures remain inconsistent, difficult to compare across firms, and frequently buried in footnotes. As a result, investors and lenders may struggle to assess the true extent of leverage and liquidity risk.

Most financial analysis tools—automated screening systems, trading algorithms, credit rating models, brokerage platforms, and standard dashboard summaries—rely primarily on headline data, not the detailed disclosures buried in the notes. As a result, supplier financing liabilities frequently escape detection in the very metrics that investors and lenders use to assess risk.

In many cases, firms willingly accept financing costs that exceed those of traditional bank borrowing because these arrangements provide funding without increasing reported debt or weakening leverage-based performance measures. The incentive is therefore often not cheaper financing, but more favorable financial reporting.

Given the central role of ratios such as Debt/Equity, Net Debt/EBITDA, and OCF in financial analysis, these metrics must be built on transparent, prominently reported classifications. They should not require forensic investigation into footnote disclosures to understand the extent to which operating metrics are being influenced by disguised financial liabilities.

If a buyer extends payment terms specifically because a financing program makes such an extension possible, then the economic substance of the transaction is borrowing, not operational trade credit. Classifying these obligations as trade payables fails to reflect their underlying nature and undermines the usefulness and integrity of reported financial metrics.

After 9 Months of Turmoil, Uncle Nearest Has a Mystery Buyer—Here’s What Will Happen to the Whiskey Brand



Last year, the company’s lender, Farm Credit, filed a suit against the distillery’s founder for defaulting on over $108 million.

OnePay: $1 Cashback Per Gallon Of Gas Every Wednesday (50 Gallons, Two Redemptions Per Day)


The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • OnePay is offering $1 cashback per gallon purchased every Wednesday through 9/15/26

The Fine Print

  • Bonus Term: 05/27/2026 – 09/15/2026. Each Wednesday (from 12:00 AM–11:59 PM Pacific Time) during the Bonus Term, purchases of gas using a OnePay Reward gas offer (“Gas Offer”) can earn $1 cash back per gallon, subject to the limitations of the Gas Offer used (e.g. spend caps or gallon caps).
  • Only purchases made on a Wednesday qualify for this Bonus.
  • The $1 cash back through this Bonus is in addition to any cash back amount stated in the OnePay app for the Gas Offer used and any cash back earned by customers who have selected Gas as their monthly cash back category.
  • Gas Offers are not available in New Jersey or Wisconsin.
  • Cash back amounts and caps vary by Gas Offer and details can be found in the OnePay app.
  • This Bonus may be modified or canceled at any time, with or without notice.
  • Making a purchase through a Gas Offer with a OnePay CashRewards Card or third-party cards linked in the OnePay Wallet require use of the physical card. 
  • Cash back is earned as OnePay Points, redeemable as a deposit into a OnePay deposit account or other available options. See OnePay Rewards Terms at link in bio.

Our Verdict

The gas station needs to appear in the OnePay app and $1 is the minimum, seems like that is in addition to whatever you’d normally earn. Think this just uses the Upside backend white labeled so there should be plenty of gas station options. 

Doesn’t seem like you need to use a OnePay card either, as terms say you can have another card linked from your OnePay wallet. I won’t be surprised if this gets pulled early. 

You can find more ways to save on fuel in this linked post. Some of the best options currently:

  • Ibotta: Fuel Your Wallet Promotion (New Code Every Thursday Through June 4)
  • 7-Eleven: Stackable Fuel/Gas Codes ($1.41 Off Per Gal)

F.A.Q’s

Do I need the OnePay Credit Card To Be Eligible?

No. Terms state:

Additionally, for all cards other than Deposit Account debit cards and builder cards, OnePay Points can only be earned through an Upside Offer when using the physical version of the card to make a purchase. For OnePay debit cards and builder cards, OnePay Points can be earned using either the virtual card or physical card to make a purchase. OnePay Points earned through Upside Offers will be provided within 2-10 business days following settlement of the applicable transaction.

So it seems like as long as you’ve added a card to your OnePay wallet and then use that physical card you’ll trigger the offer? Can get a referral bonus when signing up or a targeted bonus, more information here. 

Does this require OnePay+?

I don’t see anything in the terms that states you do, this comment confirms. 

Hat tip to reader Binay



As Microsoft seeks to be AI’s center of gravity, CEO Satya Nadella makes the case in San Francisco



Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella proclaimed a “new paradigm” on Tuesday in a keynote at the company’s Build conference in San Francisco. He was talking about the advent of agentic AI, but for anyone who has followed Nadella’s company closely in recent years, he could have just as easily been talking about Microsoft.

After taking an early lead in the AI race by forging a close alliance with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI beginning in 2019, Microsoft, and OpenAI, are both now playing catch-up in a heated field of rivals that include Google, Anthropic, Meta, and even SpaceX.

As Nadella kicked off the company’s conference on Tuesday, the CEO delivered a message designed to show the strength and breadth of Microsoft’s AI initiatives, and to re-ignite some of the buzz the company had at the onset of the AI revolution just a few years ago. Even the choice to hold the Build event in San Francisco for the first time since 2016 seemed designed to send a message.

If there was one unifying theme to the sweep of product announcements and partnerships made by company executives, it’s that Microsoft’s portfolio of technology—from AI models to devices to chips—anchors it at the center of the AI industry.

“It’s a new paradigm,” Nadella said of the agentic era. Agents “reason continuously. They generate and run code dynamically. They take actions across files and devices, as well as across the network.”

Nadella announced “Project Solara,” which the company pitched as a purpose-built agentic platform for devices that could include a desktop device and badge that people may wear to interact with their agents.  

The company also revealed a new family of home-grown AI models, including a fresh image model, coding model, and its first reasoning model. Nadella also brought Peter Steinberger, the founder of open-source agent tool OpenClaw to announce that the trendy personal AI assistant will be integrated into Windows. In addition, Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang joined virtually as Nadella detailed major upgrades to custom infrastructure that is optimized for AI workloads and discussed Nvidia’s recently announced PC “superchip” that will pair with Windows. 

Nadella said that Microsoft will be unveiling a Copilot super app this summer that will combine chat, coding, and a function named Autopilot. Fortune on Friday first reported on the super app, a project that will also include Copilot Cowork and is led by Copilot chief Jacob Andreou. Autopilot is designed to connect to an agent named Scout, the first of a new category of agents that Nadella said will be able to join group chats in Microsoft Teams or handle email threads in Outlook.

Microsoft faces immense pressure to prove it is still relevant in an ultra-competitive AI world with many rivals. It’s clashing with Amazon over chips and infrastructure (and for business with OpenAI and Anthropic), while jockeying with the top AI labs for model supremacy. Data center capacity constraints, over-reliance on OpenAI and a Copilot assistant that trails rivals have challenged Microsoft’s early lead.

Microsoft is aggressively fortifying its weak spots. It has more recently given greater priority to train Copilot on its servers, is deploying homegrown chips, and has a new deal with OpenAI that provides it and its longtime partner greater flexibility to compete. 

Nadella in his keynote said Microsoft, and the technology industry, are transitioning from a cloud-native era to an “agent-native stack” he explained as agents executing tasks in both software and hardware environments.

“There are really two stories people can tell about this moment,” he said. “One is that technology concentrates power, reduces human agency, and leaves the society to absorb the consequences. The other is that we use this next wave to unlock opportunity for developers, scientists, enterprises, and every community.

Our job is to make the second story true.”

Fannie, Freddie shares dip as Pulte’s added role raises questions



While President Trump is entrusting Bill Pulte with the nation’s biggest secrets, shareholders in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are losing some faith.

Processing Content

Shares for the government-sponsored enterprises dipped after the president’s announcement Tuesday that the Federal Housing Finance Agency director would be acting Director of National Intelligence. Pulte, also chairman of both Fannie and Freddie, will remain in those roles as he replaces Tulsi Gabbard, who submitted her resignation effective June 30. 

The new chief of the government’s intelligence agencies, who briefly worked at his grandfather’s company and led an investment firm, has no prior public experience in a national security role. He’s a prominent Trump ally who has initiated mortgage fraud probes into lawmakers and others viewed as opponents to the Trump Administration’s agenda, although none of those accusations have resulted in indictments

“William has deep experience managing the most sensitive matters in America, the safety and soundness of the Markets, and over 10 Trillion Dollars at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, a substantial increase from where it was just 12 months ago,” wrote President Trump on his Truth Social platform Tuesday morning. 

Under Pulte’s watch, the quasi-public GSEs have continued to grow, with portfolios to $7.8 trillion. 

Spokespersons for the FHFA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did not respond to requests for comment Tuesday. 

Fannie Mae’s stock was trading around $7.06 per share midafternoon Tuesday, down nearly 5% from market open, while Freddie Mac was down similarly at $6.18 per share from an open of $6.47. GSE shares have fluctuated wildly this year, as the Trump administration has weighed conservatorship exit plans for the mortgage giants. 

Industry reaction

Some public figures have voiced their confusion at the move on social media, noting some concern around Pulte’s newly divided attention. Democrat leaders, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., ranking member of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, slammed the move and cited past scrutiny of Pulte’s perceived political attacks

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in a flash note Tuesday suggested that if Pulte were to formally depart the FHFA, it could be a positive indicator for privatization.

“While Director Pulte has voiced support for GSE privatization, it does not appear that FHFA has actively taken steps to meaningfully further the process, for example by revisiting the capital rule that was put in place by Mark Calabria during Trump 1.0,” the analysts wrote. 

Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen, also said Tuesday’s announcement makes an already operationally and politically difficult conservatorship exit less likely.

“We do not see how one could surmount those obstacles if the FHFA director is devoting most of his time to national security issues,” he wrote.



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(3:56) Howard Marks: The S&P 500
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