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We studied chatbots and language and saw a huge problem: They mean 80% when they say ‘likely’ but humans hear 65%


When a human says an event is “probable” or “likely,” people generally have a shared, if fuzzy, understanding of what that means. But when an AI chatbot like ChatGPT uses the same word, it’s not assessing the odds the way we do, my colleagues and I found.

We recently published a study in the journal NPJ Complexity that suggests that, while large language model AIs excel at conversation, they often fail to align with humans when communicating uncertainty. The research focused on words of estimative probability, which include terms like “maybe,” “probably” and “almost certain.”

By comparing how AI models and humans map these words to numerical percentages, we uncovered significant gaps between humans and large language models. While the models do tend to agree with humans on extremes like “impossible,” they diverge sharply on hedge words like “maybe.” For example, a model might use the word “likely” to represent an 80% probability, while a human reader assumes it means closer to 65%.

This could be because humans can interpret words such as “likely” and “probable” based more on contextual cues and personal experiences. In contrast, large language models may be averaging over conflicting usages of those words in their training data, leading to divergences with human interpretations.

Our study also found that large language models are sensitive to gendered language and the specific language used for prompting. When a prompt changed from “he” to “she,” the AI’s probability estimates often became more rigid, reflecting biases embedded in its training data. When a prompt changed from English to Chinese, the AI’s probability estimates often shifted, possibly due to differences between English and Chinese in how people express and understand uncertainty.

AI chatbots don’t interpret ‘probably’ and ‘maybe’ the same way you do. Mayank Kejriwal

Why it matters

Far from being a linguistic quirk, this misalignment is a fundamental challenge for AI safety and human-AI interaction. As large language models are increasingly used in high-stakes fields like health care, government policy and scientific reporting, the way they communicate risk becomes a matter of public trust.

If an AI assistant helping a doctor, for instance, describes a side effect as “unlikely,” but the model’s internal calculation of “unlikely” is much higher than the doctor’s interpretation, the resulting decision could be flawed.

What other research is being done

Scientists have studied how humans quantify uncertainty since the 1960s, a field pioneered by CIA analysts to improve intelligence reporting. More recently, there has been an explosion in large language model literature seeking to look under the hood of neural networks to better understand their “behaviors” and linguistic patterns.

Our study adds a layer of complexity by treating the interaction between humans and artificial intelligence as a biological-like system where meaning can degrade. It moves beyond simply measuring if an AI is “smart” and instead asks if it is aligned.

Other researchers are currently exploring whether so-called chain-of-thought prompting – asking the AI to show its work – can fix these errors. However, our study found that even advanced reasoning doesn’t always bridge the gap between statistical data and verbal labels.

What’s next

A goal for future AI development is to create models that don’t just predict the next likely word but actually understand the weight of the uncertainty they are conveying. Researchers are calling for more robust consistency metrics to ensure that if a model sees a 10% chance in the data, it chooses the same word every time.

As we move toward a world where AI summarizes scientific papers and manages people’s schedules, making sure that “probably” means “probably” is a vital step in making these systems reliable partners rather than just sophisticated parrots.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

Mayank Kejriwal, Research Assistant Professor of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

The 7 Toughest States to Be a Landlord in 2026


New York City has always been known as a tough town for landlords. It’s about to get tougher. The city’s new mayor, Zohran Momdani, is putting bad landlords” with outstanding violations, or those who owe the city money for stepping in to do emergency repairs, on notice and, in some cases, threatening to take away their buildings and freeze rents, raising fears throughout the real estate community.

“New York has the most tenant protections of any state,” Ann Korchak of the Small Property Owners of New York told the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute.  

While there’s no question that living conditions in some New York apartment buildings are atrocious and slumlords have long been associated with the Big Apple, equally, New York City is a very tough place to be a rental property owner.

In a city where over 70% of residents are tenants, laws skew heavily in tenants’ favor, making evictions—which can take up to a year—time-consuming and expensive. Now, as the housing crisis tightens its grip on renters, other states are following suit with enhanced tenant protection laws. As taxes, insurance, and repair costs rise, landlords, both big and small, are feeling the pressure.

The Effect of Increasing Tenant Protections on Small Landlords

As expenses rise, smaller landlords, who own about 90% of single-family rentals in the U.S., many of whom own only a few rentals, don’t have the deep pockets of corporate landlords to withstand a prolonged eviction. The Urban Institute found that one-size-fits-all landlord-tenant laws are disproportionately tough on smaller landlords who lack the experience and resources to fight increased regulations.

A December 2025 analysis on TurboTenant’s education platform highlighted these states as among the toughest to be a rental property owner:

  • Connecticut
  • Massachusetts
  • Minnesota
  • Maryland
  • Illinois
  • Washington
  • Oregon

Factors considered include high carrying costs plus slow, tenant-friendly legal systems, making it especially challenging for mom-and-pop investors.

Here’s a deeper dive into some of these states.

Connecticut

In Connecticut, where the majority of evictions occur in five cities—Hartford, Bridgeport, Waterbury, New Haven, and New Britain—an effective property tax rate of 1.92% (well above the national average of 0.98%) and the expansion of “just cause” evictions make it especially challenging for smaller landlords.

“It takes away the control of my building, and I do protect my building to protect my good tenants more than anything, but occasionally you have to do other things. You have to remodel the units, and I can’t do it when somebody’s in there cause it’s too much, you know, you have too much work, especially half the housing in Connecticut’s over 100 years old,” John Souza, of the Connecticut Coalition of Property Owners, told WVIT/NBC Connecticut.

Illinois

Illinois is another state that is increasingly tough to be a landlord in, due to high property tax rates and increased tenant protection. As of Jan. 1, 2025, under the Landlord Retaliation Act—Public Act 103-0831, landlords “can’t raise rent, cut utilities, refuse to renew a lease, evict, or take other retaliatory actions if a renter does a protected activity or action like reporting unsafe conditions, requesting repairs, joining a tenants’ group, or taking legal action,” Apartments.com wrote about the statute.

 

Complicating issues in the state are the “crime-free housing laws.” The laws were promoted as a way to remove nuisance tenants from buildings, but their implementation has been mishandled, with the wrong people getting punished. As a result, city officials ordered landlords to evict tenants in 500 of 2,000 cases from 2019 to 2024, an investigation by The New York Times and The Illinois Answers Project found, causing a loss of income for property owners.

Infractions cited for evictions included accusations that tenants neglected their pets or eavesdropped on a neighbor, with a single violation enough to trigger an eviction. In families, the misdeeds of one member can result in the entire family being evicted. It has caused multiple complaints from landlords and tenants alike, the Times reported.

Oregon and Washington

On the West Coast, Oregon and Washington are known for their stringent tenant-protection laws. The TurboTenant report notes that Oregon’s statewide rent control, relocation fees tied to certain rent hikes, sealed eviction records, and certain rules that punish long-term ownership all contribute to what it calls “tough sledding”—making it difficult to find or build a home.

In Washington, the same issues occur, along with caps on rent increases in certain areas and the potential for multiyear legal disputes over contested cases. TurboTenant describes the state as a “financial and legal burden” for many rental owners.

Maryland

Maryland is another state named in the TurboTenant list. The Renter’s Rights and Stabilization Act of 2024 was one of two bills recently introduced. It gives tenants residing in a rental property the right of first refusal if the landowner wants to sell the property. It also increases court fees for landlords to file an eviction.

House Minority Leader Jason C. Buckel (R-Allegany) said during the court hearing:

“This bill is disincentivizing. How do I know this? Because they all come here and tell us that. Every group that represents people who invest in these types of property into this sector of the economy—multifamily housing, building associations, all of them. They all come here and say, ‘this doesn’t work. This is a bad compromise.’” 

Final Thoughts: Strategies for Small Landlords in a Tougher Landscape

The housing crisis has seen cities and municipalities across the nation undertake measures to keep tenants in their homes to stave off homelessness, making it tough for landlords, especially those with only a handful of rentals, to run their businesses efficiently. 

The lesson here is less about panic and more about planning. Investors need to assume that tenant protections will continue to increase in many markets. The key is to do your homework before investing. Being a landlord in any state is tough. Don’t make it tougher by not being prepared.

Key issues include:

Consider eviction rules

For landlords involved in government rental assistance programs or with HUD mortgages, the federal 30-day eviction-notice requirement, similar to the CARES Act requirement, is likely to remain in place, and landlords should plan for long eviction lag times.

Increase your slush fund

Landlords need to boost their reserves to cover compliance costs and capital expenditures. City-cited violations must be corrected promptly to avoid additional fines and legal action.

Research rent control laws

Small landlords need to research how local and state policies treat different types of housing within the same region. Are two-to-four-unit properties exempt from rent control? What about higher unit counts?  Can you add an ADU or convert a basement to livable space?

Mortgage Loans for Doctors: A Prescription for Homeownership


As a medical professional, you’ve dedicated countless hours to building your career and caring for others. Whether you’re a newly graduated doctor, dentist, or veterinarian, or an experienced professional, owning a home can feel like a distant goal. Student debt, limited credit history, and the high costs of buying a property add hurdles to achieving this milestone. Fortunately, the Doctor Loan program is here to change that.

What Is the Doctor Loan?

The Doctor Loan is a specialized mortgage program created to meet the unique needs of medical professionals. It’s not just about buying a home—it’s about making homeownership accessible, even for those just starting out in their careers. This program addresses challenges such as high student debt, short employment history, and the inability to save for a large down payment.

The Doctor Loan is available to various medical professionals, including:

  • Doctors (MD and DO)
  • Dentists (DDS and DMD)
  • Veterinarians (DVM and VMD)
  • Podiatrists
  • Pharmacists
  • CRNAs

Newly graduated medical professionals and seasoned practitioners can use it to buy or refinance their primary residence.

Top Benefits of the Doctor Loan

1. Up to 100% financing

With the Doctor Loan, you can finance up to 100% of your home’s purchase price. This means no down payment may be required, allowing you to focus on other financial priorities, such as paying off student loans or starting your practice.

2. No mortgage insurance

Unlike traditional conventional loans, the Doctor Loan doesn’t require private mortgage insurance (PMI), even with little to no money down. This saves you hundreds, or even thousands, of dollars each year.

3. Flexible employment and income requirements

Medical professionals just starting their careers may have high debt-to-income ratios. Proving you have the income to make loan payments for the life of the loan is a challenge for many. To make this easier, the Doctor Loan accepts:

  • Future employment contracts (before you’ve even started working)
  • New 1099 contract income without requiring a long employment history

4. Higher loan limits

Medical professionals often need homes in higher price ranges, especially in metropolitan areas. The Doctor Loan offers jumbo loans and high loan limits to ensure that you can purchase a home that fits your needs.

5. Credit flexibility

The program understands the unique financial situations of medical professionals. It considers nontraditional credit and allows for high student loan balances without penalizing your borrowing power.

Who Qualifies for the Doctor Loan?

To qualify for the Doctor Loan, you’ll need to meet specific eligibility requirements.

Eligible degrees

  • MD (Doctor of Medicine)
  • DO (Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine)
  • DDS (Doctor of Dental Surgery)
  • PharmD (Doctor of Pharmacy)
  • DVM (Doctor of Veterinary Medicine)
  • VMD (Veterinary Medical Doctor)
  • DPM (Doctor of Podiatric Medicine)
  • CRNA (Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist)

Eligible professions

  • Medical doctors
  • Dentists
  • Podiatrists
  • Veterinarians
  • Pharmacists
  • CRNAs

Employment requirements

  • Future employment contracts or acceptance letters are acceptable.
  • Recent graduates and professionals with new 1099 income are eligible.

How the Doctor Loan Works

Step 1: Check your eligibility.

Start by confirming that you meet the program’s requirements. Your mortgage lender will help you review your degree, profession, credit score, and employment situation to ensure that you qualify.

Step 2: Get pre-qualified.

Pre-qualification is a simple process where you provide basic information about your finances and employment. This step helps determine your borrowing potential and gives you a clear picture of your homebuying budget.

Step 3: Submit your application.

Once pre-qualified, you’ll submit a loan application along with the necessary documentation, such as:

  • Proof of your employment contract or terms of employment
  • Credit report and financial details

Step 4: Verify employment.

If you’re using a future contract or new 1099 income, the underwriting team will verify your employment terms. Education and residency often count toward your employment history, giving you an edge during this process.

Step 5: Get loan approval and close.

After your application is reviewed, you’ll receive loan approval and finalize the details. Once everything is in place, you’ll close on your loan and officially become a homeowner.

Why Choose the Doctor Loan over Traditional Loans?

If you’re a medical professional, the Doctor Loan is likely a better option than an FHA loan or conventional loan backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Here’s how it helps you specifically.

Qualify even with student debt

For a medical professional, student loans can be a significant financial burden. The Doctor Loan program considers your earning potential and future income, allowing you to qualify for a mortgage even with high student debt.

Streamlined process for recent graduates

If you’ve just graduated and don’t have a long credit or employment history, traditional loans can be challenging to secure. You’ll end up paying a higher interest rate if you qualify. The Doctor Loan simplifies the process by accepting employment contracts and residency as proof of income and experience.

Avoiding PMI

Private mortgage insurance can add hundreds to your monthly payment. By eliminating the need for PMI, the Doctor Loan makes homeownership more affordable.

Is the Doctor Loan Right for You?

The Doctor Loan could be the perfect fit if you’re a medical professional looking to buy or refinance a home. With benefits like no down payment, no PMI, and flexible credit requirements, this program removes the common barriers to home financing.

Whether fresh out of medical school or an established professional, the Doctor Loan is designed to help you achieve your homeownership dreams while focusing on your career.

Get Started Today

Are you ready to take the next step toward owning your dream home? Our team is here to guide you through the process, answer your questions, and help you secure financing that fits your needs.

Connect with a dedicated Loan Advisor today to learn more about the Doctor Loan and start your journey to homeownership. Your future starts here!



PNC Up To $1,000 Business Checking Bonus [CO, MA, CA, AL, DC, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, KY, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, SC, VA, WI and WV]


Update 2/24/26: $1,000 bonus now requires a $30,000 hold (was $100,000) for the first three statement cycles. 

Extended to 3/31/26

extended to 12/31

Extended through 9/30/25.

Extended through 6/30/25

Update 3/13/25: Now live in MA as well. Hat tip to reader Peek

Promo doesn’t go live until tomorrow

Update 9/29/24: Extended through December 31, 2024. Maximum bonus is now $1,000 but the $1,000 bonus now requires a $100,000 average balance instead of $30,000. The $400 bonus was $200.

Offer at a glance

  • Maximum bonus amount: $500
  • Availability: AL, CA, DC, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, KY, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, SC, VA, WI and WV
  • Direct deposit required: No
  • Additional requirements: See below
  • Hard/soft pull: Soft
  • ChexSystems: Unknown
  • Credit card funding: None
  • Monthly fees: $12-$50
  • Early account termination fee: $25, six months
  • Household limit: None listed
  • Expiration date: September 30th, 2020 March 31, 2021 September 30, 2021

The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • PNC is offering a bonus of up to $400/$1,000 when you open a business checking account. Bonuses are as follows:
    • Earn $400 with a business checking account when you complete the following requirements:
      • Maintain the minimum average cycle balance of $2,000 for each of the first 3 statement cycles
      • Make at least 20 total qualifying PNC Bank Visa® Debit Card transactions and/or PNC Bank Mobile Check Deposits[3] within the first three statement cycles
    • Earn $1,000 when you open a Treasury Enterprise Plan or Analysis Business Checking and maintain a minimum average cycle balance of $100,000 for each of the first three statement cycles

The Fine Print

$200 bonus:

  • You may earn a $200 reward if you open a new PNC Business Checking or PNC Business Checking Plus account.
  • To qualify for the reward, the new checking account must be opened between July 1, 2020 and September 30, 2020, and the following conditions must be met: (a) average cycle balance of $5,000 must be maintained in your new checking account for each of the first three statement cycles; and (b) at least 20 total qualifying PNC Visa®  Business Debit Card transactions must be made within the first three statement cycles. Your new checking account must be open in order for you to receive the reward, which will be credited to the eligible account within 90 days after all conditions have been met and will be identified as “Credits NEW BUS BONUS” on your monthly statement.
  • Only business checking accounts with statements that cycle monthly are eligible for this offer. Business checking accounts that receive statements daily, weekly or quarterly are ineligible.
  • Already established, converted or repurposed PNC checking or savings accounts are not eligible.
  • Average cycle balance is defined as the average total within your business checking account at the end of your statement cycle. A qualifying debit card transaction is defined as any debit card purchase made at point of sale using your signature or PIN; or a purchase made electronically or online using your debit card number, including recurring payments. Any combination of qualifying PNC Visa® Business Debit Card transactions is acceptable but must equal 20 within the first three statement cycles.
  • New account will not be eligible for offer if any signer has signing authority on an existing PNC Bank business checking account or has closed an account within the past 90 days, or has been paid a promotional premium in the past 12 months. If multiple accounts are opened with the same signers, only one account will be eligible for the premium. For this offer, signing authority will be defined by the customer name(s) and Social Security number(s) registered on the account.
  • Offer may be extended, modified or discontinued at any time. The value of the reward may be reported on Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 1099, and may be considered taxable income to you.

$500 bonus:

  • You may earn a $500 reward if you open a new PNC Treasury Enterprise Plan or Analysis Business Checking account.
  • To qualify for the reward, the new checking account must be opened between July 1, 2020 and September 30, 2020, and the following condition must be met: average cycle balance of $30,000 must be maintained in your new checking account for each of the first three statement cycles.
  • Your new checking account must be open in order for you to receive the reward, which will be credited to the eligible account within 90 days after all conditions have been met and will be identified as “Credits NEW BUS BONUS” on your monthly statement.
  • Only business checking accounts with statements that cycle monthly are eligible for this offer. Business checking accounts that receive statements daily, weekly or quarterly are ineligible. Already established, converted or repurposed PNC checking or savings accounts are not eligible. Average cycle balance is defined as the average total within your business checking account at the end of your statement cycle.
  • New account will not be eligible for offer if any signer has signing authority on an existing PNC Bank business checking account or has closed an account within the past 90 days, or has been paid a promotional premium in the past 12 months. If multiple accounts are opened with the same signers, only one account will be eligible for the premium. For this offer, signing authority will be defined by the customer name(s) and Social Security number(s) registered on the account.
  • Offer may be extended, modified or discontinued at any time. The value of the reward may be reported on Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 1099, and may be considered taxable income to you.

Avoiding Fees

Business Checking ($400 Bonus)

This account has a monthly fee of $12 and is waived if you do ONE of the following:

  • Make $1,000 in business credit card purchases with a linked PNC credit card
  • Maintain an average minimum monthly collected balance of $500

Treasury Enterprise Plan ($1,000 Bonus)

This account has a monthly fee of $50. This is waived when you maintain $30,000 Average Combined Monthly Collected Balance in the master and all additional beneficiary business checking accounts

Early Account Termination Fee

There is a $25 early account termination fee if the account is closed within the first six months. None

Our Verdict

The standard bonus is $200, the best bonus we’ve seen was $400 and that only required a deposit of $10,000 to trigger. I’m not sure if we will see that offer again, but it’s significantly better than the $500 bonus. I’ll still add these bonuses to the best bank bonus page but it might be better to wait for a possible return of that $400 offer.

Hat tip to reader Rob

Useful posts regarding bank bonuses:

  • A Beginners Guide To Bank Account Bonuses
  • Bank Account Quick Reference Table (Spreadsheet) (very useful for sorting bonuses by different parameters)
  • PSA: Don’t Call The Bank
  • Introduction To ChexSystems
  • Banks & Credit Unions That Are ChexSystems Inquiry Sensitive
  • What Banks & Credit Unions Do/Don’t Pull ChexSystems?
  • How To Use Our Direct Deposit Page For Bank Bonuses Page
  • Common Bank Bonus Misconceptions + Why You Should Give Them A Go
  • How Many Bank Accounts Can I Safely Open Within A Year For Bank Bonus Purposes?
  • Affiliate Links & Bank Bonuses – We Won’t Be Using Them
  • Complete List Of Ways To Close Bank Accounts At Each Bank
  • Banks That Allow/Don’t Allow Out Of State Checking Applications
  • Bank Bonus Posting Times

Post history:

  • Extended through September 30, 2024
  • Extended through 30 June ‘24
  • Update 1/2/24: Extended until March 31, 2024
  • Update 10/3/23: Extended until 12/31/23
  • Update 6/29/23: Extended until September 30, 2023
  • Update 4/17/23: Extended through 6/30/2023.
  • Update 1/12/23: Extended through March 31, 2023.
  • Update 10/19/22: Extended through December 31, 2022.
  • Update 10/8/22: Extended through 12/31/2022.
  • Update 7/4/22: Extended through September 30, 2022.
  • Update 4/2/22: Extended through 6/30/22
  • Update 1/4/22: Extended through 3/31/22
  • Update 10/4/21: Extended through 12/31/21
  • Update 4/12/21: Extended until June 30, 2021.
  • Update 1/2/2021: Extended until March 31, 2021.
  • Update 10/11/20: extended until December 31, 2020.

Assuming the Best About Others is Hard—But Necessary


ALISON BEARD: I’m Alison Beard.

ADI IGNATIUS: And I’m Adi Ignatius, and this is the HBR IdeaCast.

ALISON BEARD: Adi, today, let’s talk about how to get along with people who make our lives harder, whose views conflict with our own, who we can’t seem to find common ground with, who maybe we don’t even really like or respect.

ADI IGNATIUS: Okay. This one’s going to get us in trouble, but okay.

ALISON BEARD: No, don’t worry. It’s still very much a conversation about good management because it’s about getting in the right head space to overcome all of these challenges at work, build better relationships and foster more productive collaboration.

ADI IGNATIUS: Oh, okay, phew. I was actually worried where you were going to go with that.

ALISON BEARD: So our guest today is Trinity University professor, Amer Kaissi, and he’s going to explain why more of us need to adopt a positive intent mindset, assuming that the people around us, bosses, peers, employees, clients, suppliers, competitors, all the stakeholders, have good intentions even when they make mistakes or they don’t behave the way we think they should.

ADI IGNATIUS: All right, so I think we’ve all heard the old joke about what happens when you assume, not safe for work. I don’t know, I’m not sure organizations really benefit from constant positivity to avoid conflict, but tell me more.

ALISON BEARD: Okay, so Kaissi would agree that you don’t want to be so upbeat all the time that you ignore bad behavior or let people off the hook for it. But he argues that there’s a way to adopt this mindset and improve teamwork, negotiations, all your workplace interactions, while still insisting on accountability.

He’s going to share both research on how this can help you and your team, and then also practical advice for making it work. He’s the author of The Positive Intent Mindset: Exceptional Leadership through Trust and Accountability. And here’s our conversation.

So we are living in a really divisive time. There’s lots of negativity in the headlines and on social media. How do you see that affecting the way people feel and behave in the workplace right now?

AMER KAISSI: We do live in a very negative, very divisive world right now. It’s made worse by social media, cable news and all of that. And employees, I mean, they can’t help but bring some of that negativity with them to work. And as a result, they start assuming negative intentions about their coworkers. They start feeling that everyone has a hidden agenda. And because of that, we’re seeing that employee engagement suffers, we see that collaboration diminishes, and trust is reduced. So all of that makes people just unhappy at work and we all feel miserable. So the world around us is definitely affecting our working relationships.

ALISON BEARD: And I imagine you bring it to your dealings with external stakeholders as well, with people who you might be a little bit adversarial, whether that’s suppliers or clients.

AMER KAISSI: Yeah. We did some research to test some of these hypotheses, and we did find that actually people tend to assume more negative intent towards people that they don’t know that well or that they may have some kind of a conflict with, such as clients or external stakeholders.

ALISON BEARD: Yeah. And this may seem obvious, but why is it important to try to force yourself into a more positive mindset at work, especially when it comes to how you’re thinking about the intentions of others? What does the research say on that?

AMER KAISSI: So we have proof from the research that trust is reduced, collaboration goes down, and engagement goes down. And people will take these seriously for sure, but I don’t think that’s the one factor or the factors that are going to make people change. I think what is more likely to make people change and assume positive intent is the fact that when we don’t assume positive intent, we just feel miserable, right? Our well-being is affected.

So yes, of course the relationships are important, but this is not just about that. It’s about us and how we are living and how we are interacting with others, and just the misery and the pain that we are in. There’s a well-known saying, “Pain is inevitable, but suffering is optional.” And when we assume negative intent, we are subjecting ourselves to a lot of unnecessary suffering. One thing I say is when we assume positive intent and give others the benefit of the doubt, we are really giving ourselves the benefit of low blood pressure.

ALISON BEARD: Right. And why do you see this as an essential skill for leaders in particular? What does it do for a team and an organization when a leader operates in this way?

AMER KAISSI: For leaders, there are so many opportunities there to default to that setting and assume negative intent, to not be intentional about it. And leaders are impacting others through how they show up every day. So we find that especially for people in leadership positions, assuming positive intent is going to have ripple effect across the organization by creating what we call cycles of trust.

The research shows that positivity begets positivity. So leaders who go in assuming that others are trying their best, they’re going to find evidence that others are trying their best. Whereas if we do the opposite, if we go in with some biases, assuming that people are not trying, or that external stakeholders are trying to cheat us or whatever it is, we’re going to find evidence for that, right?

ALISON BEARD: What do you say to someone who argues that, well, staying vigilant, trusting only people who have earned it over a long period of time, avoiding risks, that’s what made me successful.

AMER KAISSI: I mean, certainly we have to be vigilant. This is not a naive approach. This is not about saying just assume positive intent and everything is going to be great. In the book, I talk about this concept of accountable positivity. We start with the default of assuming positive intent provisionally, and then we check with others. And then we see if the positive intent is there. We start by saying, “What if they’re trying their best?” And then we go see if they are trying their best. We start with a question. What if they have a valid reason for acting in that way? And we go and check with them to see if they do actually have a valid reason.

ALISON BEARD: And apart from all the negative news we’re seeing and the divisiveness, why is it difficult for us to start from that perspective when it comes to other people, particularly in the workplace?

AMER KAISSI: There are some internal psychological reasons that make it for us that we assume negative intent as our default setting. First, there’s obviously some evolutionary processes in there. If you think of cave people and ancestors and all of that, they assumed negative intent when they went out of the cave and they saw another creature that they haven’t seen before or an animal that looks scary. In that moment, that was the right thing to do to save their lives.

Now, in our current work interactions and our own personal relationships right now, the stakes are not that high in terms of someone is going to threaten our lives, but we still assume negative intent as a maladaptive way of dealing with other people.

There’s also another deeper psychological phenomenon called the fundamental attribution error. When we observe someone acting in a way that is questionable or wrong or we can’t explain it, we judge them by their actions, not by their intentions. However, when we are acting in those same ways, we judge ourselves by our intentions.

And the simple example here, you’re driving on the highway and someone cuts you off. In that moment, you immediately think that person is a jerk, that person is a reckless driver, because we judge them by the action. There’s no time. There’s no space to ask what is their intention. Could they possibly be taking their sick child to the hospital? However, when we are engaged in the same behavior, and many of us, if we’re honest with ourselves, we do engage in the same behavior sometimes, we judge ourselves by our intentions. I am rushing and I cut them off because I need to get to the doctor’s appointment on time.

ALISON BEARD: I chuckled when I read that example, because I am definitely guilty of cutting people off from time to time, and definitely guilty of being annoyed with people for cutting me off.

AMER KAISSI: Well, beyond just that example, one of the powerful questions that I learned when I was doing research for the book is when we see someone acting in a way that we think is wrong, to ask ourselves, “Have I myself acted that way in the past?” Right? Your colleague does not reply to your email in 24 hours, or your colleague forgets to invite you to the meeting, and we get annoyed and we think they have an agenda and they want to keep us out of the conversation. And then go back and ask yourself, “Have I done that myself in the past, intentionally or not?” And most of the time, the answer is that, “Yes, I have done it.” So if we’ve done the same thing in the past, who are we to judge that other person? Maybe they do have a valid reason for doing it. Now let’s go check with them.

ALISON BEARD: And it seems like that process of asking yourself questions, reflecting on your own assumptions, and then also what the intentions of the other person might be is the first step, this move toward curiosity. So what are some other questions that you can ask yourself to push yourself into a more positive intent mindset?

AMER KAISSI: We start with this provisional position of assuming positive intent. We pause. We replace judgment with curiosity. And then we start first checking with ourselves: “Have I done something like this?” And then we check with the person in question. We go and talk to them in a neutral tone, in a curious way and say, “What are the reasons that led you to behave in this way? I noticed that in the meeting yesterday, you rolled your eyes at my suggestion. What is going on there? Are there some concerns that you have?

We can also ask other people who were around when the situation happened and say, “You know what? I misperceived her comment to be a little bit negative,” or, “I misperceived his comment to be a little bit aggressive. Can you confirm that? Did you hear it the same way?”

ALISON BEARD: And you also talk about five key skills that we can all build to move us toward more positivity and not making negative judgments about others personally and as teams, and also as organizations: realistic optimism, empathy, humility, reality testing, and forgiveness. And I’d love to quickly go through each of those. So how do you define realistic optimism and how do you develop it?

AMER KAISSI: Realistic optimism is about seeing others when they make a mistake and not assuming that they’re always going to make the same mistake, that this mistake is a representation of all of their skills, and that they made the mistake because of something wrong with them, with their skills, with their characters. So we talk about thinking about others’ mistakes as short-term, specific, and impersonal. You assign a task to one of your team members to do some financial analysis for a project, and they bring back the analysis with a mistake. Realistic optimism is about saying, “Okay, they made this one mistake. That doesn’t mean they’re always going to make the same mistake. It’s a mistake in the analysis. It doesn’t mean they’re going to make mistakes when they present the proposal.”

And finally, maybe the mistake is due to overwork, or maybe the mistake is due to the fact that they’re overwhelmed. So it’s about thinking about it short-term, specific, and impersonal, and checking with the other person. So we are not getting away with accountability. We’re not saying, “Oh, let them get away with the mistake.” But the initial position is that realistic optimism towards other people and their actions and then checking with them.

ALISON BEARD: How do you have those conversations, asking the other person what their intent was without it becoming contentious?

AMER KAISSI: There definitely are a lot of ways that we can do that. To keep it very simple, I think replacing why questions with what questions tend to do the trick most of the time. “Why did you do that?” puts the other person on the defensive, right? They’re going to become defensive. They’re going to think that you are questioning their judgment. “What were the reasons that led to you doing this?” Or, “What are some of your concerns when you did this and that, or when you said this and that?” tends to be a much better way of at least starting that conversation and making it go a bit smoother.

ALISON BEARD: And then the second key skill, empathy. We’ve heard a lot about the importance of having that for trust and collaboration, but we’ve also heard that there are downsides of having too much empathy, especially at work. So where is the sweet spot and how do you get to it?

AMER KAISSI: Before we get to the sweet spot, the starting spot is humanizing others. And this goes back to the divisiveness and the negativity that we see around the world right now. We don’t humanize each other anymore. We belong to our own tribes. I belong to my tribe of my own political party and people who share my religious beliefs and people who work with me in the same department. These are our tribes. Now, we need these tribes to belong. We need these tribes to thrive. But the problem becomes when we start thinking that my tribe is always good and my tribe is always right, and the other tribes are always bad and always wrong.

So the starting point for empathy is to humanize others, is to see them as human being. I do that as a simple exercise when I’m watching my favorite sports team. I’m a huge soccer fan. And the exercise is, when you see rival fans on TV, to try to humanize them. And it’s a very hard exercise with rival fans.

ALISON BEARD: I will do that with everyone but Knicks fans. Sorry, Juan Martinez, my dear colleague. Except for you, Juan. Except for you, Juan.

AMER KAISSI: For me, it’s with soccer. And my team is Manchester United, and the rivals are Liverpool, right? If I’m watching a Liverpool game and I see their fans, my immediate reaction is to think of them as, “Oh, they’re violent, they’re whatever. They’re superficial. But they’re just like me. They are supporting their team. When this team wins, it brings them happiness. When it loses, it makes them sad. So humanizing others.

There’s a lot of tribalism at work, us versus them. I do a lot of work in healthcare. And in healthcare, the main source of conflict in healthcare organizations is administrators and clinicians. There’s always tribes that we belong to, which is good, as long as we don’t think the other tribe is always wrong.

Now, what is the sweet spot? I think the sweet spot is, empathy in terms of understanding the other person’s position and being curious about why they reached that position, but not necessarily taking on their emotions. We don’t have to take on their emotions. We don’t have to be paralyzed by those emotions. And there needs to be accountability in there.

Yes, we took the time to think, what if they’re trying their best? We took the time to say, why would a reasonable decent person act this way? And then when we check with them and we find that there was no positive intentions, we have to have the difficult conversation. So I say that this approach, assuming positive intent does not replace conflict resolution, does not replace difficult conversations, but in fact, it enhances it.

ALSION BEARD: So humility, the third piece, we talked about that the last time you came to the show. But remind us how you develop it if it doesn’t come to you naturally or you didn’t learn it growing up?

AMER KAISSI: When leaders get to their positions, they become subject matter experts. They know a lot about a lot of things. And that, sometimes, comes with blind certainty. They start assuming that they know everything about every situation, and they know the reasons why people are behaving in certain ways. And humility is about replacing that blind certainty with curiosity. Assuming that you don’t know everything. Asking open-ended questions that can help reframe the situations.

So that open-mindedness there, that curiosity is key to going into conversations and saying to yourself, “I know a lot of things, but I don’t know everything, so I’m going to go into this conversation assuming that I’m going to learn something new from this person.” So that’s the connection between the concept of humility and assuming positive intentions.

ALISON BEARD: And then reality testing. I think you’ve talked a little bit about how you can ask questions of others and the person that you’re interacting with directly to see if what you’re perceiving is true. Are there other pieces to reality testing that you want to share with our listeners?

AMER KAISSI: There’s one more aspect of it that we haven’t really talked about, which is to consider the other person’s track record before judging them harshly. So again, it’s about pausing and replacing that judgment with a little bit of understanding and saying, “Okay, yes, you made the mistake and we need to talk about this mistake and make sure it doesn’t happen again. Or you said that word that was offensive or insensitive.” And remembering that this person actually, over time, has had a great track record in their relationship with us and their relationship with the team and the contributions that they have made with the team.

ALISON BEARD: And then finally, how does forgiveness play out in this context? I think there’s two scenarios when you’ve gone through all of the other things that we’ve talked about. One is that you find, okay, someone was trying their best, but they still messed up. Or you find that the person actually wasn’t trying their best. So how do you deal with both of those scenarios?

AMER KAISSI: With forgiveness, I think most of us are a bit resistant to the idea of forgiveness. Because we may think that, on the one hand, it means forgoing accountability. We’re just going to forgive mistakes. It’s going to be toxic positivity, right? “So what if they said this. Let’s just get along. Let’s sweep it under the rug.” So that’s not what we’re talking about.

The other aspect of it is that when we decide to forgive, it’s not for the other person, it’s for ourselves. So I was working with a leader in a coaching engagement, and she was telling me about a boss that she worked with in the past who was a very toxic boss. And she was going in detail about what that boss made her feel, the impossible work assignments he gave her, how he tended to humiliate her and grill her in meetings in front of others, and on and on and on. And finally, Alison, I asked her, I said, “How long ago did you work for this boss?” And she said, “18 years ago.” She was still holding that baggage with her. She’s still allowing that person to occupy so much space in her head. And then we started talking, and I asked him, I said, “Are you willing to forgive that boss?” And she said, “No. Of course not. I don’t want to reconcile with him.”

And I said, “It’s not about reconciling with him, it’s about forgiving him for yourself.” And that’s the new understanding of forgiveness that Fred Luskin talks about, which is, “It’s you forgive not for the other person, you forgive for yourself, because you don’t want to continue to suffering from the actions that have happened long time ago.”

ALISON BEARD: Yeah. But in an ongoing work relationship, if you’re trying your best to assume positive intent, and you consistently find that there isn’t positive intent, with whomever, the supplier, the client, the colleague, the boss, the employee, how do you respond then?

AMER KAISSI: The difficult conversation has to take place, right? It starts from a neutral perspective where we go in and say, “Hey, what’s going on?” And then if the offense is repeated, if the person keeps on acting in ways that demonstrate that they do not have positive intentions, then in that case, maybe with an external relationship, the relationship has to be reconsidered, with an internal team member also, their employment has to be reconsidered. So again, it is not a naive approach. It’s not an approach that lets people get away with negative actions. It really is followed by the normal process of holding people accountable for their words and their actions, whether they are external or internal.

ALISON BEARD: The one example you had in the book that really stuck with me was the restaurant owner and how she dealt with employees that had come in late in a way that really made them change their behavior because they realized the impact it was having on others.

AMER KAISSI: Yeah. This story is from Erin Wade who started this restaurant that only serves mac and cheese. And the restaurant became so popular and very well known. But it wasn’t just about the quality of the food, it was about the culture that she built in within the restaurant. One of the issues that they had, which every restaurant has, which is people coming late. So she tried to do what most other restaurant managers would do, which is to reduce the pay when someone showed up late. Except there was a problem that it didn’t solve the problem. People kept on coming late.

So she borrowed a concept from restorative justice where she said to herself, “You know what? It’s not about docking their pay. It’s about making them realize how coming in late is affecting their team members and is affecting the customers.” So they changed the procedure where if someone came in late, the first thing they had to do was to go and apologize to their team members for being late, and then they had to apologize to the customers because the customers had to wait longer for their food to come because the restaurant was short-staffed.

And that change, that little tweak that they did resulted in significant introduction in the number of people who were showing late because they were starting to feel more responsible. So an underlying factor there is assuming that people have positive intent, assuming that wait staff are adults, they’re professionals, they want to do a good job, but just putting them in a situation to understand the impact of their actions on others, be it their teammates or customers.

ALISON BEARD: Yeah. And accepting that maybe there was a good reason that they were late. But it still did affect others. And so an apology is necessary. I’d love to hear a story of an executive who started out not this way at all, was mistrustful, was risk averse when it came to relationships with people, and then worked on all of these aspects of positive intent mindset in a way that improved their career and their team’s performance.

AMER KAISSI: Yes. I was working with a leader who was American, but went overseas to work in a European company. And when she started her work, because of a lot of cultural differences and a lot of different norms in the organization that she was not used to, a lot of distrust was generated between her and some of her team members.

So we talked about a number of different strategies. And one of them was assuming positive intent. One of them is withholding judgment, being curious, holding some of those one-on-one conversations in a way that is neutrall in a way where you’re not accusing others.

Six months later, after we had put this into practice, I mean, she came back and said, “It has been a game changer” – not only how she sees others, but how others see her as well. When you start extending those charitable assumptions towards other people, then they start also reciprocating, and then they extend similar assumptions toward you.

So this is on the professional side. I will also share one on the personal side. And this happened with one of my colleagues who was having some issues with her significant other. And applying the principles of positive intent, she came back in a few months and said, “These principles that we’ve talked about over that dinner have really saved my marriage.”

ALISON BEARD: Yeah. I think that’s a really important point also. Because as we think about creating better relationships through assuming positive intent, it definitely does start in your personal life. And anything you can do in your personal life to improve it will enhance your professional life. So if I start the morning angry with my husband because he’s left his towel on the floor, and instead of thinking, “He’s so lazy,” I think, “Oh, he must have really been in a rush this morning.” Then when I open up my email and I see a colleague say something that could either frustrate me or not frustrate me, I’m less likely to get frustrated. Right? So if you start at home, you carry it through to work, and probably the reverse too.

Moving back into the professional, when a leader, particularly a C-suite leader, even the CEO, when someone like that models this kind of behavior and tries to spread it through the organization, even talking about it directly, what effects do you see? Have you seen companies greatly enhance performance and productivity and collaboration and all the things we want because of shifting to a positive intent mindset?

AMER KAISSI: Absolutely. There are a lot of examples. One of them is Axios, the company that does political articles. One of their principles is assuming positive intent. That’s one of their values. And when CEOs, when C-suite leaders start with that, they start with assumption that everyone is trying their best, they start with the assumption that team members are professionals, team members are here, are motivated, are engaged, they’re not just here for a paycheck, and that will help them see those team members in that light.

As a result, the team members start confirming that, and they start acting in those ways where they are going above and beyond. They are collaborating with others when they don’t have to collaborate. So they start confirming that. And that creates those cycles of trust. And as a result, we start seeing engagement going up. We start seeing trust becoming stronger, collaboration becoming better, but most importantly, people feel happier at work.

ALISON BEARD: Yeah. Well, it is a very difficult time to be assuming positive intent about the actions of others, Amer. So thank you so much for teaching us how to do it.

AMER KAISSI: Oh, this has been a treat. Thank you for having me.

ALISON BEARD: That’s Trinity University Professor Amer Kaissi. He wrote the book The Positive Intent Mindset: Exceptional Leadership Through Trust and Accountability. Here’s our conversation.

Next week, Adi checks in with HBS professor Linda Hill about the latest research on innovation and scaling.

If you found this episode helpful, share it with a colleague and be sure to subscribe and rate IdeaCast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. If you want to help leaders move the world forward, please consider subscribing to Harvard Business Review. You’ll get access to the HBR mobile app, the weekly exclusive Insider newsletter, and unlimited access to HBR online. Just head to HBR.org/subscribe.

Thanks to our team: Senior producer Mary Dooe. Audio product manager Ian Fox. and Senior Production Specialist Rob Eckhardt. And thanks to you for listening to the HBR IdeaCast. We’ll be back with a new episode on Tuesday. I’m Alison Beard.

The eVTOL Company No One Is Talking About (Hint: It’s Not Joby Aviation or Archer)


This innovative aviation company isn’t winning popularity contests, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t appear on your radar.

In these early days of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) flight, there are the usual suspects. Joby Aviation (JOBY +1.89%) and Archer Aviation (ACHR +3.31%) are two companies at the vanguard of this revolution in air travel.

But they’re not alone. Another eVTOL specialist has its sights set on providing this innovative air travel option to customers, and it’s a company that investors interested in this burgeoning industry should familiarize themselves with.

Image source: Getty Images.

This under-the-radar eVTOL company is preparing for takeoff

Founded almost five years ago, Vertical Aerospace (EVTL +2.70%) is a British company navigating toward offering eVTOL flights to air passengers. Like Joby, which is partnering with Delta Air Lines, and Archer, which is partnering with United Airlines, Vertical Aerospace is also working with a major airline from this side of the pond: American Airlines.

Vertical Aerospace Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(2.70%) $0.11

Current Price

$4.18

In 2021, American Airlines announced plans to order up to 250 Vertical Aerospace aircraft, representing a potential $1 billion purchase, plus an option to order an additional 100 aircraft; in addition, American Airlines announced it expected to invest $25 million in the eVTOL start-up.

And American Airlines isn’t the only dance partner. Vertical Aerospace is also partnering with Bristow Group, a company specializing in vertical flight solutions. After inking an initial memorandum of understanding in 2021 that included Bristow’s preorder of 25 eVTOL aircraft as well as an option for an additional 25 aircraft, the two companies announced in 2025 that Bristow would help Vertical’s pursuit of launching commercial operations by providing it with access to its pilots, maintenance, and other services. Plus, Bristow ordered 50 additional aircraft, with an option for the purchase of another 50.

Lest investors suspect that Vertical Aerospace’s partnerships with American Airlines and Bristow Group represent the entirety of its orders, the company currently has about 1,500 preorders for its Valo eVTOL aircraft, valued at about $6 billion. For context, Archer stated in 2024 that it too had an order book of about $6 billion. Joby, on the other hand, hasn’t provided clear insight into its order book.

Is now the time to land Vertical Aerospace stock in your portfolio?

Despite its lack of popularity, Vertical Aerospace demands serious attention from those interested in eVTOL stocks. The company foresees launching commercial eVTOL flights in the United Kingdom by the end of 2028, paving the way for it to receive certifications from other regulators (including the Federal Aviation Administration) thereafter. By the end of 2030, the company is targeting an annual production run rate of more than 225 aircraft.

Moreover, management aims to achieve a 20% gross margin by 2030 and expand it to about 40% after scaling operations. With respect to cash flow, management projects the company will generate over $100 million in operating cash flow.

While Vertical Aerospace sees blue skies ahead, it’s important to recognize the considerable risks with an investment in the company as it pursues the start of commercial operations, just as there are risks with Archer stock and Joby stock. Potential investors, therefore, must perform their due diligence to determine if an investment is right for them.

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Opinion: Moving Education Programs Around Washington Is Bad Policy


Key Points

  • Moving Education Department programs to other agencies doesn’t shrink government – it simply shifts the bureaucracy to a different office.
  • Splitting oversight across agencies risks more confusion, weaker accountability, and higher administrative costs for taxpayers.
  • Without changing federal law, these transfers avoid real reform and leave the structure (and spending) largely intact.

The U.S. Department of Education has announced two new interagency agreements, handing off selected responsibilities to the Departments of State and Health and Human Services. The stated goal: break up federal education bureaucracy, improve efficiency, and return education to the states.

As someone who believes deeply in higher education (and in the value of federal student aid programs that expand opportunity), I also believe in an efficient government where tax dollars are spent purposefully to achieve specific goals. 

That’s why these interagency agreements deserve a closer look.

Shifting programs from one federal agency to another does not necessarily make government smaller. It makes it more complex. And if we’re not careful, it may reduce accountability while ignoring the structural reforms that education policy actually needs.

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What The Department of Education Is Doing

The Department of Education has been implementing a set of “interagency agreements”, where functions that have traditionally belonged to the Department are “signed over” to another government agency.

Last year, the administration moved 6 programs out of the Department of Education to other agencies. These interagency agreements (IAAs) sentsix program to the following four agencies:

  • U.S. Department of Labor (DOL): Elementary and Secondary Education Partnership and Postsecondary Education Partnership. DOL will be responsible for grants relating to Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and Minority-Serving Institutes (MSIs), as well as grants focused on improving student success for college students
  • U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI): Indian Education Partnership
  • U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS): Foreign Medical Accreditation Partnership and Child Care Access Means Parents in School (CCAMPIS)
  • U.S. Department of State (DOS): International Education and Foreign Language Studies Partnership, including programs administered under the Fulbright-Hays grant

U.S. Department of Education staff who manage these programs will be transferred to the four federal agencies. 

This week, the Department of Education is moving two additional categories of responsibility. 

First, the Department of State will take on a larger role in managing Section 117 foreign gift reporting under the Higher Education Act. Colleges and universities must disclose foreign gifts and contracts totaling $250,000 or more annually. Under the new agreement, State will help manage the reporting portal, assess compliance, and share data with national security stakeholders. This will go along with the new ForeignFundingHigherEd.gov website.

Second, the Department of Health and Human Services will take on administration of several K–12 support programs. These include School Emergency Response to Violence (Project SERV), School Safety National Activities, Ready to Learn Programming, Full-Service Community Schools, Promise Neighborhoods, and Statewide Family Engagement Centers. HHS, through its Administration for Children and Families, will manage grant competitions and technical assistance.

That’s the context.

Now comes the harder question: does this actually improve how education policy works for students and taxpayers?

Moving Responsibilities Isn’t The Same As Reform

If you want a simple analogy, it’s this: when your mom tells you to clean your room and you shove everything into the closet or under the bed, you haven’t cleaned anything. You’ve just hidden the mess.

That’s what’s happening here. Nobody is actually shutting down or closing the programs at the Department of Education – the bureaucracy, spending, and programs still exist. It’s just being shoved into other agencies.

The federal government’s education footprint is not defined by which building houses the employees. It’s defined by the statutes Congress has passed: Title I, IDEA, Pell Grants, federal student loans, and more. If the same programs, funding levels, regulations, and compliance requirements continue (just under different agency letterhead), then government hasn’t been reduced. It has been redistributed.

And redistribution can add friction. Especially when it’s done via interagency agreements.

State education agencies, colleges, and school districts now may have to interact with multiple federal departments instead of one. A superintendent dealing with school safety grants may now coordinate with HHS. A university compliance officer handling foreign gift disclosures may work with both Education and State. Workforce development officials already juggle Education and Labor.

Each additional agency means different systems, guidance documents, oversight structures, and internal cultures. That doesn’t automatically mean worse outcomes, but it does mean more coordination is required. And that also usually means more money required – not less.

Accountability Becomes Harder To Track

I think most Americans have concerns around how our government is operating. And one of the big arguments for having one single department overseeing one area is accountability.

When something goes wrong in federal student lending, you know the Department of Education is responsible. When special education compliance fails, you know which office oversees IDEA.

When programs are scattered across different government departments, responsibility becomes less obvious.

Who ultimately answers when a school safety grant is mismanaged? Education, which retains oversight? HHS, which runs the competition? The Office of Management and Budget, which sets funding parameters? Congressional committees overseeing different agencies?

If interagency agreements blur oversight or dilute institutional knowledge, then accountability may weaken rather than strengthen.

What About Structural Change?

There is a larger issue being sidestepped.

If the current administration and lawmakers actually want to dismantle the Department of Education, then the honest approach is legislative reform. Not to say it should be dismantled at all – but there’s a correct way to go about it if that’s the approach legislators want to take…

That means revisiting statutes, redefining federal roles, and openly debating which programs should exist, be consolidated, or be returned to states.

That is hard work. It requires Congress. It requires political risk.

Interagency agreements, by contrast, operate within existing law. They move existing administrative responsibility without changing the underlying obligations. Title I still exists. IDEA still exists. Federal loan programs still operate under federal rules. 

True reform would examine whether federal involvement in certain areas is achieving measurable results relative to cost. It would evaluate overlap across agencies. It would ask whether outcomes justify administrative layers.

Simply transferring administration may streamline some processes. But it also introduces new ones.

Without structural reform, all we’re doing here is playing a bureaucratic shell game for social media headlines.

Efficiency Should Mean Results, Not Headlines

I support efficient government. Wasteful spending, redundant oversight, and bureaucratic sprawl undermine public trust.

Just look at the mess with the PSLF buyback backlog. Even with more accountability and oversight, nothing is being done to fix the administrative breakdown impacting American student loan borrowers. It’s harming trust in the entire system.

Efficiency is measured in outcomes and cost savings, not press releases.

If interagency agreements reduce duplicative back-office functions, improve data sharing, and clarify compliance pathways, they may prove beneficial. If they instead add new layers of coordination while leaving statutory complexity untouched, taxpayers may see little return.

Government should be organized around mission clarity. Education policy affects more than 50 million K-12 students and roughly 17 million college students nationwide. It involves hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

That scale demands careful oversight and potentially reform.

Breaking apart an agency without addressing the legal framework underneath it risks confusion – and likely more costs, not less. It can also make it harder for voters to understand who is responsible for success or failure.

If the goal is truly to return education to the states, Congress must revisit federal statutes and funding conditions directly. If the goal is efficiency, policymakers should publish measurable benchmarks: administrative cost reductions, processing times, compliance accuracy, and grant turnaround metrics.

If you actually want departmental efficiency, let’s see the metrics.

Bottom Line

I believe in higher education. I believe federal student aid has opened doors for millions of families who otherwise would not have had access to college. I also believe that government should be lean, accountable, and focused on results.

Interagency agreements may be a tool. But they are not reform in themselves.

Moving programs from the Department of Education to State or HHS does not automatically shrink government. It complicates it. It blurs accountability. And it distracts from the pressing administrative needs Americans have today.

Cleaning the room means organizing what stays, throwing out what doesn’t, and making it easier to function going forward.

Anything less is just pushing things into the closet, hoping mom doesn’t find out.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post Opinion: Moving Education Programs Around Washington Is Bad Policy appeared first on The College Investor.

Binance Denies Dismissing Investigators Over Alleged $1.7 Billion Crypto Flows To Iran-Linked Entities


In a firm rebuttal to recent media reports, Binance has categorically denied allegations that it terminated or suspended compliance staff for uncovering potentially problematic cryptocurrency transactions linked to Iran. The world’s largest crypto exchange maintains that no sanctions violations occurred and that any personnel changes stemmed from unrelated breaches of internal policies, not from efforts to suppress legitimate concerns.

The controversy erupted following investigative pieces published in mid-February 2026. According to various reports, a team of internal investigators—several with backgrounds in law enforcement across Europe and Asia—identified substantial flows of funds through the platform between March 2024 and August 2025.

One analysis highlighted more than $1 billion in Tether (USDT) stablecoin transactions routed via the Tron blockchain to entities with ties to Iran.

A separate account of the findings pointed to approximately $1.7 billion moving from just two Binance accounts, one reportedly belonging to a company vendor, toward Iranian parties potentially connected to terrorist organizations.

These movements were said to raise red flags under international sanctions regimes.

Investigators also allegedly discovered that users in Iran had accessed over 1,500 accounts on the exchange during the period.

The team documented their discoveries in internal reports and escalated them to senior leadership.

However, within weeks, at least four to five members of the compliance unit were reportedly fired or placed on suspension.

Sources suggested the departures followed the surfacing of these findings, prompting questions about whether the actions reflected retaliation amid Binance’s ongoing regulatory obligations.

Binance pushed back sharply against the narrative. Co-CEO Richard Teng addressed the claims directly, stating:

“No sanctions violations were found, no investigators were fired for raising concerns, and Binance continues to meet its regulatory commitments.”

The company emphasized that an internal review, supported by external legal counsel, uncovered no evidence of breaches related to the referenced activity.

It further clarified that certain employees left after violating protocols around customer data protection and confidentiality—standard grounds for disciplinary measures, according to the exchange.

Binance stressed its commitment to proper compliance, noting heavy investments in advanced screening tools, real-time blockchain analytics, and collaboration with global law enforcement.

The firm also highlighted a claimed 97% reduction in exposure to sanctioned entities and high-risk jurisdictions since January 2024.

This latest episode unfolds against a complex backdrop for Binance.

In 2023, the exchange pleaded guilty to multiple violations of U.S. anti-money laundering, know-your-customer, and sanctions laws, resulting in a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice.

Founder Changpeng Zhao stepped down as CEO and served a four-month prison sentence before receiving a presidential pardon in late 2025.

As part of the resolution, Binance agreed to enhanced oversight, including a monitorship, and pledged to strengthen controls against illicit finance.

Critics argue the reported events raise fresh doubts about the platform’s post-settlement reforms, especially given the timing shortly after the pardon.

Supporters, however, point to Binance‘s track record of assisting authorities in thousands of cases annually and recovering significant illicit funds.

Industry observers note that crypto exchanges continue to navigate a challenging environment where decentralized technology collides with strict geopolitical sanctions, particularly involving regions like Iran.

As regulatory scrutiny persists and market participants demand greater transparency, Binance’s denial underscores the high stakes involved. The exchange insists its core compliance capabilities remain intact and that it remains a reliable partner in the fight against financial crime.