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Is UK productivity growth low? A historical and cross-country perspective – Bank Underground


Sophie Piton and Fabrizio Cadamagnani

A lot has been written about UK productivity and how weak it’s been in recent years. This post assesses UK productivity trends in a historical and cross-country perspective. Productivity growth has been weak across G7 economies over the past two decades, reflecting the end of the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution and the flattening gains from globalisation. The slowdown was particularly large in the UK, mainly because it experienced a larger decline in the share of manufacturing than peers and then because of the impact of Brexit. In recent years, US productivity growth has been accelerating thanks to tech, offering some optimism for the future of UK productivity.

Productivity growth is of key interest to policymakers including the Monetary Policy Committee as it determines the ‘speed limit’ of the economy in the short/medium run and is the primary driver of living standards in the long run. Since the global financial crisis (GFC), the annual growth rate of UK labour productivity (output per hour) has been lower than in the previous century (Chart 1). Productivity growth has been weak across advanced economies, but the UK has been below the US and EA19 average, averaging 0.5% for the market sector over 2008 to 2025 (Table A). The US has averaged 1.7%, well above peers, partly driven by strong productivity growth since Covid.


Table A: Labour productivity (output per hour) annual growth rate for the market sector, annual average

UK US FR DE EA19
1998–2007 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9%
2008–19 0.3% 1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0%
2020–25 Q3 0.7% 2.2% -0.3% 0.5% 0.6%

Note: ‘Business sector’ is the business sector in the US, the market sector in the UK and the total economy excluding mostly public sectors and real estate in Europe.

Sources: Authors’ calculations using BLS, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics (ONS).


Chart 1: Output per hour for the total economy, annual growth rate

Source: Authors’ calculations using the Long-Term Productivity Database, 2026 edition.


The ICT revolution and the high productivity growth of the 1990s/2000s

The manufacturing and tech services sectors experienced an exceptional transformation in the 1990s and early 2000s with unprecedented productivity gains (Chart 2 panel A). This transformation reflects the adoption of new general-purpose technologies following the ICT revolution (diffusion of computers, internet, and enterprise software). In addition, strong global competition forced the exit of less productive manufacturing firms in the UK and other advanced economies, and incentivised surviving firms to offshore their low-productive activities (this reduced the manufacturing sector’s share of employment in all G7 economies – Chart 2 panel B). Overall, the result was very high growth of labour productivity in both manufacturing and tech services, which lifted aggregate productivity growth.


Chart 2: The exceptional performance of the manufacturing sector in the decade before the GFC

Panel A: UK annual labour productivity growth (five-year moving average), 1970–2024

Panel B: Share of manufacturing in total employment, per cent

Note: Labour productivity is output per hour.

Sources: Authors’ calculations using ONS MFP 2025 release (panel A) and STAN 2025 release (panel B).


The decline in productivity growth from the mid-2000s

There are discussions as to when the productivity decline started, the latest evidence suggesting it started as early as the mid-2000s, before the GFC. This decline is common across all G7 economies, reflecting weak total factor productivity (TFP) more than weak capital deepening. The literature suggests it marks the end of the ICT revolution but also reflects the flattening of the gains from globalisation.

While a weakening of productivity growth could be expected after firms upgraded their production processes and productivity reached much higher levels, researchers have found the scale of this slowing puzzling given the continuing high investment in R&D in these sectors after the GFC (for example Lashkari and Pearce (2024) or Goldin et al (2024)). Some of the explanations proposed for the productivity slowdown in the US point to IT innovation leading to a decline in business dynamism, in particular in the manufacturing sector, and an increase in sales concentration among a few large firms; this high level of concentration discourages innovation and results in a slowdown in productivity growth over the long run. However, while the evidence on the decline in business dynamism is stark in the US, the evidence is more mixed across the Atlantic and in the UK in particular (for example Gutierrez and Piton (2020)), where productivity slowed down the most.

Even if productivity growth in manufacturing declined materially (‘within effect’), it was still above the average of the other sectors (Chart 2 panel A). However, the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP also declined substantially (‘between effect’). These two effects meant that the contribution of manufacturing to total economy productivity declined significantly. As a result, in accounting terms, manufacturing is the largest contributor to the productivity slowdown across most G7 economies (Chart 3 panel A).


Chart 3: The role of manufacturing in the UK productivity slowdown

Panel A: Total productivity slowdown (201019 versus 199807, per cent) and manufacturing sector contribution (within + between effects, percentage points)

Panel B: UK annual average productivity growth (market sector, per cent) and sector contributions (percentage points)

Sources: Authors’ calculations using STAN 2025 release (panel A) and ONS MFP 2025 release (panel B).

* US productivity data by industry in STAN starts in 1999. Panel A shows the contribution of manufacturing, both its ‘within’ and ‘between’ effects, to total economy productivity growth. Panel B shows within-industry contributions using the Tang-Wang methodology for market sector only. Productivity is output per hour.


Measured UK market-sector productivity growth was 0.3% per year on average over 2008–19, very weak both in absolute terms and relative to other G7 economies (Chart 1 and Table A). There is a large academic literature on the reasons for poor UK performance and still no consensus. We highlight two key drivers.

First, the role of manufacturing. Even though in the 1970s the UK had the largest manufacturing share among G7 countries, the size of the sector declined by more than peers and by the time of the GFC the manufacturing share was the lowest in the G7 group (Chart 2 panel B). A lower manufacturing share helps to explain the UK’s lower aggregate productivity growth, given that productivity is higher in manufacturing than in most other sectors.  

Second, the UK has been affected by measurement issues that have depressed its measured productivity relative to peer countries. The publication of the ONS Bluebook 2021, which introduced important revisions to historical data, and most importantly ‘double deflation’, significantly reduced the measured UK productivity slowdown since the GFC, so the UK is within the G7 range now.  And a revision to the measurement of hours worked, as the ONS moves from a ‘direct’ method to a ‘component’ method to minimise the bias from the secular decline in Labour Force Survey response rates, is likely to lead to further upward revisions to UK productivity growth when implemented – initial estimates suggest a +0.4 percentage points increase in the average annual growth rate over 2008–19.

Productivity developments since the Covid pandemic

Since the pandemic (2020–25), UK market-sector labour productivity has grown at an average of 0.7% per year, significantly lower than 2.2% in the US but slightly higher than the European average of 0.6% (Table A).

The recent supply shocks and data measurement issues challenge the interpretation of UK productivity trends as well as international comparisons in recent years. The pandemic drove large compositional effects, reflecting the fact that the sectors most hit by lockdowns were those with the lowest labour productivity. When focusing on ‘within-industry’ productivity growth, and so abstracting from these compositional effects, we can see that UK labour productivity growth was resilient through Covid and then started to decline in 2023 as the economy slowed down. The timing differs depending on the data source for the measure of hours, but all measures give similar average growth rates for UK productivity over the 2020–25 period.

Brexit has been a key headwind to UK productivity. The Bank of England’s central estimate is that Brexit will leave the level of potential productivity in the UK 3¼% lower than otherwise by the end of 2028, with the effect weighting on productivity growth in the transition to this lower level. There is however still a lot of uncertainty on the magnitude and timing of the Brexit impact. New research suggests larger impacts on trade in services than assumed so far. In any case, it’s likely that in the absence of Brexit UK productivity growth would have been materially higher than in euro area countries over the past six years.

What about the UK productivity level?

Comparing levels of labour productivity is a challenging task and relies on comparable measures of output, hours worked and price levels (comparisons are made in purchasing power parity, or ‘PPP’, terms to account for differences in the cost of living). The ONS publishes a range of estimates using different methods to compute hours worked to compare G7 economies, which suggests that in 2019 UK labour productivity was c.20% lower than US productivity.

Allas and Zenghelis (2025) link the low level of UK productivity relative to its leading peers to the cumulative effect of weak investment rates over several decades. Chart 6 panel A, shows that the UK business investment-to-GDP ratio has been lower than in other G7 economies since the turn of the century. The decline of the manufacturing share of the UK economy is a key reason for this – the UK investment-to-GDP ratio excluding manufacturing has been close to the US and G7 average (Chart 6 panel B).  Some of the relative weakness in UK investment rates in other sectors could also be due to measurement issues, as the UK specialises in industries where intangible investment matters the most and these assets are harder to capture.


Chart 6: The role of manufacturing in the UK investment-to-GDP ratio

Panel A: Market sector investment share in GDP, 1995–2021

Panel B: Market excluding manufacturing sector investment share in GDP, 1995–2021

Sources: Authors’ calculations using EU KLEMS 2025 release.


Tech, the US exception and prospects for UK productivity growth

There’s an active debate on ‘Eurosclerosis’, pointing to the persistent gap in productivity growth between US and European countries in recent decades (Table A). It’s however unclear whether this has translated into a relative improvement in living standards for the US over this period.

The Draghi report on EU competitiveness (2024) highlighted this divergence in productivity growth pointing to the important role of the US tech sector. Indeed, Chart 7 shows that the contribution of IT and other information services (including AI companies) to total US productivity growth is larger than in European economies and the gap has been increasing. In the US, this sector is less than 4% of total output but has contributed 12% to total productivity growth in the last three years. While some of this could reflect early gains from AI, it also reflects strong automation/digitalisation investment following the pandemic. This dynamism in tech is also reflected in strong business creation in the US tech sector not seen in UK data.


Chart 7: Contribution of IT and other information services to total economy annual labour productivity (output per hour) growth, three-year moving averages, percentage points

Sources: Authors’ calculations using STAN 2025 release and ONS February 2026 productivity by division release for the UK.

* EU3 include France, Germany and Italy. IT and other information services correspond to sector J62_63.


Yet, the UK also has a strong tech sector. The contribution of IT and other information services to total economy annual labour productivity growth is larger in the UK than in other European economies (Chart 7), and the main contributor to UK productivity growth in the recent period (Chart 3 panel B).  Cross-country evidence suggests that the UK is just behind the US in terms of AI adoption. There are reasons to think AI adoption may materially and persistently lift UK productivity growth, although the timing and magnitude of AI impacts are highly uncertain.

To conclude, while the slowdown in productivity growth in the past two decades was in large part driven by the end of the general-purpose ICT revolution, there is hope that recent developments in AI may mark the start of a new general-purpose revolution. This offers some optimism for the future of UK productivity, although there is still a lot of uncertainty on the nature and timing of the change that AI is going to bring.


Sophie Piton and Fabrizio Cadamagnani work in the Bank’s Structural Economics Division.

If you want to get in touch, please email us at bankunderground@bankofengland.co.uk or leave a comment below.

Comments will only appear once approved by a moderator, and are only published where a full name is supplied. Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.

How AI Is Changing Online Courses, Coaching, and Client Results


Catch the Full Episode:

Overview

When live events went virtual almost overnight, everyone had a hard deadline forcing the change. John Jantsch sits down with Blue Melnick, co-founder of Sage Event Management, to talk about a shift he thinks is bigger and quieter: AI moving into the coaching, consulting, and course world. Melnick’s take: the opportunity is using AI to get your clients better results, faster, versus just getting more done yourself.

The conversation digs into what Melnick calls the “moment of need.” That’s the 2 a.m. moment when a client’s brain is racing and the only person available is ChatGPT or Claude, not their coach. Melnick and John talk through why specialized knowledge still beats general AI. They dig into why the gap between teaching something and a client applying it is where most coaching programs lose people. They also talk about why courses built the old way (record a video, hope someone finishes it) are giving way to something better.

This one’s for coaches, consultants, agency owners, and course creators ready to put AI to work for their clients and open up a strong opportunity for their business.

Guest Bio

Blue Melnick runs Sage Event Management with his wife and business partner, Barry Baumgartner. Together they’ve produced live events for clients including Tony Robbins and ClickFunnels. Melnick and Baumgartner also run a coaching program built around launching high-ticket offers through virtual live events, and they’ve spent the past 2 years building Obi, an AI co-producer designed to guide clients through implementation instead of leaving them to figure it out on their own. Obi is set to launch publicly in September 2026.

Key Takeaways

  • AI’s shift for coaches and consultants isn’t a temporary disruption like the pandemic’s push to virtual events. AI isn’t going away, so plan for it as permanent.
  • The real leverage isn’t personal productivity: Most people ask what AI can do for them, the bigger opportunity is asking what you can do with AI for your clients.
  • People pay for specialized knowledge, not general information. AI chatbots offer general intelligence, but your years of specific expertise are still what clients are buying.
  • The gap between teaching a client something and that client implementing it is where most coaching programs and courses lose people. Use AI to walk clients across that gap instead of handing them information and hoping.
  • Build programs around the outcome, not around content volume.

Great Moments

    • [02:09] – Melnick traces the AI shift back to ChatGPT 3.5 and the early hype around “prompt cookbooks,” before people realized AI slop was a real problem.
    • [05:23] – Melnick tells the story of a former client bragging about vibe-coding a replacement for their CRM, and why he wants nothing to do with running that infrastructure himself.
    • [09:18] – Melnick riffs on AGI and the “Skynet” fear everyone jokes about, then points to the real opportunity: pairing specialized knowledge with AI.
    • [21:59] – Melnick shares research showing spending on education, free information online, and device access have all climbed together over the past 30 years.
    • [23:30] – Melnick announces Obi’s September 2026 launch and points listeners to changecourse.ai for Barry Baumgartner’s free training.

Memorable Quotes

  • “Just because you have a genius in your pocket doesn’t mean you know what to ask it.” —Blue Melnick
  • “The key to AI making a huge difference is seeing what I can do with AI for my clients, not what AI can do for me.” —Blue Melnick
  • “The desire for knowledge, the desire for people to take you through a specific journey never changes. What changes is the delivery mechanism.” —Blue Melnick
  • “When people get a result, they don’t ask for a refund.” —Blue Melnick

Resources

AI, artificial intelligence, client results, Coaching, coaching industry, consulting, course creators, Marketing, online courses, Small Business

New salary and pension | finance division notification 2026 | update for govt employees & pensioners



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Student Loan Forgiveness For Foster Parents


Foster parents take on work the state would otherwise have to pay for, and a lot of them are doing it while still carrying student debt. So the question comes up constantly: is there a student loan forgiveness program for foster parents?

The honest answer is no. There is no federal program that forgives student loans because you are a licensed foster parent. There never has been. Federal Student Aid’s full list of forgiveness and discharge options has no foster care category, and the state programs that use the words “foster care” are almost always aimed at people who were in foster care as children — not the adults raising them.

What does exist is a set of programs you can qualify for through your job, your tax return, and the repayment plan you choose. Several of those changed in a big way on July 1, 2026, so anything you read about this before then is out of date.

Here is what actually applies.

Table of Contents

Public Service Forgiveness Program
Federal Perkins Loan Cancellation
Direct Loan and FFEL Program Loan Forgiveness
Repayment Programs Based On Your Income
Closing Thoughts

Public Service Forgiveness Program

PSLF is the biggest one, and it is employment-based, not fostering-based. If you work for a state or county child welfare agency, a 501(c)(3) foster care or family services agency, a school district, or any other government or qualifying nonprofit employer, you can have your remaining Direct Loans forgiven after 120 qualifying payments.

Other qualifications for becoming eligible for the PSLF are :

  • Full-time employment with a qualifying employer
  • PSLF only applies to Direct Loans but not lona programs like the Perkins Loan unless you consolidate them into a Direct Consolidation Loan
  • On-time payments made on or no later than 15 days after the payment due date each month
  • The 120 qualifying payments do not have to be consecutive – an example would be if you were at one point working for an organization that was not considered a qualifying employer. You however need to reach 120 qualifying payments with a qualifying employer to be eligible.
  • If you think this is a program that would benefit you, you should fill out this form to determine your eligibility

Federal Perkins Loan Cancellation

If you don’t qualify for the PSLF, another program you can take advantage of is the Federal Perkins Loan Cancellation. 

This program was designed to ease the burden of student loan repayments on public servants. If you work in any of the following public service positions, you could qualify for the Federal Perkins Loan Cancellation program.

  • Firefighter
  • Faculty member in a tribal college or university
  • Librarian with a master’s degree in library science at a school that qualifies for Title 1 funding or a public library
  • Teacher – special education teachers, math/science teachers, bilingual teachers or teachers in fields where there is a shortage and teachers who teach disabled children in a public schools
  • Speech Pathologists with a master’s degree working in a Title 1-eligible school
  • Medical Technician
  • Full-time emoyee of eligible public or private nonprofit child or family service agency which directly provides services to high-risk children (people under the age of 21 who have suffered emotional or physical abuse/neglect or children with severe mental or behavioral disturbances) from low-income families or communities
  • Full-time staff member in a pre-kindergarten or child-care program, or in the educational part of a preschool program carried out under the Head Start Act
  • Police/Corrections Officer
  • Member of the Peace Corps/Americorps/VISTA programs
  • United States Armed Forces

Under the Federal Perkins Loan Cancellation program, as long as you qualify, up to 100% of your loan can be cancelled over a period of 5 years.

The catch to this program is that the college you attended is the entity that deems you eligible to receive the benefit.

To find out more information about how to get the process started with this program in particular, we highly recommend you call or visit your school’s bursar’s office or the financial aid office.

Loan repayment programs for child welfare and behavioral health work

A lot of foster parents also work in social services. If that is you, state and federal loan repayment programs are usually worth more per year than anything else on this list.

The National Health Service Corps covers behavioral health clinicians — LCSWs, licensed professional counselors, psychologists, and marriage and family therapists. Full-time behavioral health awards run up to $50,000 for a two-year commitment at an approved site. The Substance Use Disorder Workforce program pays up to $75,000 for three years, and the Rural Community version pays up to $100,000. The 2026 cycles have closed, but the programs are active — watch for the next application window.

State programs vary widely:

Program Award
New York Child Welfare Worker Loan Forgiveness Up to $10,000/yr, $50,000 max over 5 years (currently closed)
Maryland Janet L. Hoffman LARP $1,500–$10,000/yr by debt level (open through March 1, 2027)
Texas Mental Health Professionals LRP Up to $80,000–$100,000 over 3 years for LCSWs, LPCs, LMFTs
Illinois Community Behavioral Health Professional LRP $4,000–$40,000/yr by credential

Check your own state’s programs — most states run something, and many are funded through HRSA’s State Loan Repayment Program match.

If you are still in school for social work, roughly 35 states run Title IV-E child welfare education stipend programs that pay tuition up front in exchange for a year of public child welfare employment per year of support. That beats borrowing and forgiving later.

Repayment Programs Based On Your Income

Now let’s take a look at loan repayment programs that work with your income. While these are not forgiveness programs, they can provide you some financial relief.

Two things work in your favor here.

First, foster care maintenance payments are generally excluded from gross income under IRC §131. They do not show up in your AGI, which means they do not raise your income-driven payment. The stipend supports the child without inflating what you owe on your loans.

Second, RAP reduces your payment by $50 per month for each dependent you claim on your federal return. A foster child placed with you by an agency or court order can meet the qualifying child relationship test under IRS Publication 501 if the age, residency, and support tests are also met.

Family size for IBR is messier. The rule counts other individuals living with you who receive more than half their support from you — and because the state stipend is designed to cover that support, whether a foster child clears the threshold depends on your actual numbers. Keep records of what you spend beyond the stipend.

Repayment Assistance Plans

  • Payments are 1-10% of your adjusted gross income
  • Payments are adjusted based on income changes
  • You can receive this benefit for up to 30 years 
  • Principal reduction subsidy and unpaid interest waiver

Pay As You Earn (PAYE) – Ending 2028

  • Payments are 10% of your monthly discretionary income
  • Payments are adjusted based on income changes
  • You can receive this benefit for up to 20 years 
  • Applies to Direct loans, Direct PLUS loans made to students and Direct Consolidation loans that do not include Direct or FFEL loans made to parents

Income-based Repayment (IBR)

  • Payments are 15% of your monthly discretionary income
  • Payments are adjusted based on income changes
  • You can receive this benefit for up to 25 years
  • Applies to Direct loans, Federal Stafford loans, all PLUS loans made to students and Direct Consolidation loans that do not include Direct or FFEL loans made to parents

Income-contingent Repayment (ICR) – Ending 2028

  • Payments are 20% of your monthly discretionary income
  • Payments are adjusted based on income changes
  • You can receive this benefit for up to 25 years
  • Applies to Direct loans, Direct PLUS loans made to students and Direct Consolisation loans (Direct Consolidation loans given to parents may be eligible under this program)

Standard Repayment Plan

  • Payments are fixed at $50 per month
  • You can receive this benefit for up to 10 years
  • The great advantage of this program is that you will pay less interest over time as compared to the other programs described above
  • Applies to Direct loans, Federal Stafford loans, all PLUS loans and Consolidated loans (Direct and FFEL)

Two More Places To Find Money

Ask your employer. The $5,250 annual tax-free employer student loan benefit became permanent under OBBBA and starts adjusting for inflation after 2026. Plenty of child welfare agencies, hospitals, and school districts already have a Section 127 plan and never mention it. The loan has to be yours, not a Parent PLUS loan you took for a child.

If you adopt from foster care, the adoption tax credit is worth $17,670 per child in 2026, with up to $5,120 of it refundable — new under OBBBA, so it pays out even if you owe no tax. Most children adopted from U.S. foster care carry a special needs determination, which means you claim the full credit whether or not you had any adoption expenses. Details are on the IRS adoption credit page.

FAQs

Is there student loan forgiveness for foster parents?

No. No federal program forgives student loans based on being a foster parent. You qualify through your employer, your repayment plan, or the tax code.

Do foster care payments count as income for student loan payments?

Generally no. Payments made under a state foster care program are excluded from gross income under IRC §131, so they do not appear in your AGI or raise your income-driven payment.

Can I count a foster child as a dependent for repayment purposes?

Under RAP, dependents claimed on your federal return each reduce your payment by $50 per month. Under IBR, the test is whether the child receives more than half their support from you, which is fact-specific when a state stipend is involved.

What if I work for a foster care agency?

Then you likely qualify for PSLF, and possibly Perkins cancellation if you still hold a Perkins Loan. Submit an employer certification form and confirm your payment count.

What happened to the SAVE plan?

It ended. Borrowers are being moved off in batches with at least 90 days’ notice. If you do not choose a plan, you get placed in a Standard plan that may not count toward PSLF.

Bottom Line

There is no shortcut for foster parents, and pretending otherwise wastes your time. The money is in three places: the job you hold, the repayment plan you pick, and the tax return you file. Foster care stipends staying out of your AGI is a real advantage. So is the $50-per-dependent reduction under RAP, and the refundable adoption credit if you adopt.

If you work in child welfare in any capacity, start with PSLF and your state’s loan repayment program. That combination is worth more than everything else on this page.

Are you a foster parent ? How have you tackled your student loans? I would love to hear about your experiences in the comments.

Editor: Clint Proctor

Reviewed by: Claire Tak

The post Student Loan Forgiveness For Foster Parents appeared first on The College Investor.

GalaxyOne $1,000 Bonus with $10,000 Deposit


GalaxyOne $1,000 Bonus with $10,000 Deposit

GalaxyOne has launched a very generous limited-time signup offer that effectively gives new customers a 10% bonus on a $10,000 deposit.

New customers who open a qualifying GalaxyOne personal account between August 17 and August 31, 2026 can earn a $1,000 cash bonus after depositing at least $10,000 in new money. Both cash and crypto deposits can qualify.

How to Earn the $1,000 Bonus

To qualify:

  • Open a new GalaxyOne account by August 31, 2026
  • Enter promo code AUGUST1000 when signing up
  • Deposit at least $10,000 in cash or crypto within 30 days
  • Maintain at least $10,000 in qualifying net deposits for 120 consecutive days
  • Keep the account open and in good standing through the bonus payout

The $1,000 bonus will be deposited into your GalaxyOne Cash account within 30 days after completing the 120-day maintenance period.

Are You Eligible?

The promotion is for new GalaxyOne customers who are U.S. residents and at least 18 years old. It’s limited to one promotional credit per person and applies to personal accounts, not business accounts.

GalaxyOne combines several financial products in one platform, including a cash account currently paying 3.50% APY, brokerage accounts with commission-free U.S. stock and ETF trading, and crypto trading. Cash deposits are held at Cross River Bank and are FDIC insured up to applicable limits.

Guru’s Wrap-up

This is a pretty good bonus, although not as good as the $3,000 bonus they briefly offered for the same requirements as reported by DoC. You’re getting $1,000 for tying up $10,000 for roughly four months, plus whatever interest you earn during that time. 

AI will hand every loan officer a personal assistant soon


At Loan Factory, we built an artificial intelligence application tool that has been live for two years. A borrower or loan officer uploads documents, and the system reads them and populates the application automatically. We are now extending that further so the tool can interview the borrower directly, the same way a loan officer would when taking an application. Between document reading and conversational interviewing, we can capture roughly 70 to 80 percent of an application from documents alone, with artificial intelligence gathering the rest through a normal conversation. Consumers are intimidated by long, complicated forms. When the process feels like a conversation instead of paperwork, the borrower experience improves significantly. 

“That is the same shift we saw when electricity replaced manual labor and when the internet rewired how business gets done.” 

We have also built tools that review the 1003 and supporting documents to flag missing items before submission, along with systems that underwrite loans and calculate debt-to-income ratios. These are not experimental add-ons. They are doing work that used to require a person, and doing it in a fraction of the time. That trajectory tracks with a broader look at how AI is reshaping the American mortgage broker, where brokers describe recapturing hours once lost to administrative work. 

Build versus buy 

Building proprietary technology has worked for us because we have run an in-house engineering team for ten years. That is not the reality for most brokers and lenders, and it should not stop anyone from adopting artificial intelligence. For the vast majority of the industry, the right path is to subscribe to tools built by companies that specialize in this work, rather than trying to build from scratch without the resources to support it. 

What separates real adoption from checking a box 

Almost everyone in this industry will tell you they are using artificial intelligence. Far fewer are using it at a level that actually changes their output. There is a real difference between opening a chatbot occasionally and building it into a genuine productivity system, whether that means automating email triage and scheduling or setting up agents that handle the repetitive tasks you already know so well that you should not be spending your own time on them. 

Nvidia unleashes 70% growth bombshell and defends against ‘circular financing’ doomsayers


Nvidia jolted investors on Wednesday with a projection that its revenue would skyrocket by 70% next fiscal year and said demand for its AI chips is growing at 100%, prompting an after-hours stock rally.

The 70% preliminary expectation wildly exceeded projections for fiscal 2028 revenue of roughly $570 billion, or 44% growth from fiscal 2027 (the current year). Nvidia’s projected growth, applied to fiscal 2027 revenue and expected revenue, would imply fiscal 2028 revenue in the range of $690 billion to $700 billion, more than $100 billion over the $570 billion analysts had been modeling. 

“We wanted to make sure that everybody has the same set of information,” CEO Jensen Huang said on a conference call Wednesday. “We’ve got a huge year coming up next year, and it’s going to be pretty extraordinary.”

“It is the case that we’ve never forecasted, never guided to a year in advance,” Huang noted later in the call.

Melissa Otto, global head of Visible Alpha research at S&P Global, said the magnitude of growth on the top line “blew away expectations” especially given that Nvidia doesn’t normally provide such guidance.

“I think what wowed the market was that 70% fiscal year 2028 number that they gave that was way ahead of Visible Alpha consensus,” said Otto. “I think the whole market was like, ‘Whoa, 70%.’”

Chief financial officer Colette Kress said customers’ forecasts pointed to Nvidia’s growth doubling next year. She delivered the news to investors after the market closed and her comments sent Nvidia’s stock rallying more than 4% in after-hours trading. 

However, Nvidia is also battling with significant supply constraints, much like all the other mega-cap tech companies. “Our entire supply chain is challenged, and it’s everybody; everybody is really running flat out,” Huang said.

Huang said that if not for these constraints, revenue growth next year would be even greater. 

“Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%,” Huang said in response to an analyst question.

The never-before-seen growth forecast came after the company disclosed quarterly earnings results that crushed across the board. Revenue for Q2 came in at $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago and sailing past projections of $92.2 billion from analysts. The company earned $2.22 per share on a non-GAAP basis, above the $2.06 to $2.09 expected. Kress guided next quarter to $108 billion in revenue, matching the so-called buyside whisper range of $105 billion to $108 billion. 

Nvidia

Huang said massive demand was coming from both hyperscale cloud providers as well as non-hyperscalers including sovereign AI, neoclouds, AI startups, and enterprises. The non-hyperscale crowd “represents about half our business, and that’s growing 100% a year,” said Huang. 

Much of rising demand reflects a shift in the way AI systems are consuming AI compute, particularly as the use of agentic AI becomes more widespread, Huang explained. The amount of compute an AI agent gobbles up versus a human user is about 15 to 100 times greater, depending on the type of task or problem being solved, he said. And the number of agents within businesses is only going to grow.

“We have 40,000 employees, roughly,” he said. “In the future, we’ll have 400,000 agents, 4 million agents, and those agents are running continuously.” 

‘We see it differently’

While the booming demand for AI chips has made Nvidia the world’s most valuable company, with a market cap of more than $5 trillion, critics have warned about the company’s spate of investments in other companies within the AI industry, from data center operators to frontier model makers like Anthropic. Many view the deals, which Nvidia is financing from its massive cash pile, as creating dangerous interdependencies with the AI business.

Kress offered up a defense against critics during the call: “We recognize the scale of this support, and we know some will call this circular financing,” the Nvidia finance chief said. “We see it differently.”

She said the frontier AI labs have proven technology leaders, traction from customers, and “skyrocketing” usage. 

“We expect them to become the largest technology companies in history,” said Kress. Their growth “isn’t limited by their technology or customer demand. It’s limited by compute.”

Still, Nvidia’s involvement has been critical and substantial and, moreover, has led to a drag on the stock price. The company disclosed maximum gross guarantee exposure of $108.5 billion, which mostly stems from credit support for SB Energy’s Ohio tech campus, which will host Nvidia compute leased to OpenAI. The rest is due to $3.5 billion backing lease obligations for AI cloud partners. Nvidia has also publicized investments of nearly $50 billion in frontier AI labs and has partnered with private equity giants Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to raise more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. 

Kress said the investments in partners were low-risk, high-reward for Nvidia.

“We believe these investments, measured against the strength of their demand, the business they create for us, the ecosystem they build on Nvidia’s platform, and the equity returns on our invested capital will be excellent, and our risk is limited,” said Kress. 

Secondly, Kress said demand from the AI labs will contribute to about a quarter of Nvidia’s business next year. She added that Nvidia’s platform is “fungible and durable” and can be used for other business if a partner alters their forward-looking projections. 

For smaller, AI-native cloud providers known as neoclouds, Kress said Nvidia offers a deal structure where Nvidia guarantees it will pay for a minimum portion of a data center’s capacity, which satisfies the banks. In exchange, Nvidia takes a cut of the provider’s rental revenue above that threshold. 

“Independent capital still underwrites every deal on its own merits. We’re not making loans,” said Kress. “In this model, we get paid twice—once on the hardware sale, and again through the share of rental revenue.”

Markets haven’t exactly loved the circular nature of all of these deals. Bill Birmingham, managing director at Rex Financial, said that when reports surfaced in July that Nvidia was in talks to guarantee as much as $250 billion in capacity for OpenAI in Ohio, the credit-default swap market repriced Nvidia’s five-year risk from 40 basis points to 82 basis points.

“The equity shed $250 (billion) in turn,” wrote Birmingham in a pre-earnings note seen by Fortune. “Even though the final number came in at $105B, the market read this as less demand and not less risk.”

Margin squeeze

One point that was slightly less than sterling was Nvidia’s third-quarter gross margin guidance of 74%, down from 75% it delivered in the second quarter, noted S&P Global’s Otto. Still, based on consensus estimates, the market “was already there,” she said. 

“The market was expecting 72.6% for Q3, and the fact that they guided to 74% suggests that their gross margin is actually more resilient than the market was expecting,” said Otto. 

Kress, in her CFO commentary, said supply and capacity commitments surged from $119 billion to $279 billion, driven by rising memory costs, a persistent boogeyman that has been behind rising prices all around the tech sector. During the call, Kress clarified further that the magnitude of memory prices led Nvidia to reset expectations, given the higher prices expected next year, said Kress.

John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, said Nvidia had likely gotten a jump on the memory price issue by engaging early on with suppliers to strike long-term agreements with locked-in prices. During Wednesday’s call, Huang confirmed he had worked with suppliers about visibility into pricing well in advance.

“A long time ago, people asked me why it is that we’re working with memory suppliers when we’re a chip company,” he said. “Today, people understand it’s really quite genius that we were working on our supply chain so far upstream. 

Birmingham wrote that Nvidia has been raising prices to customers by about 15% to pass through the inflation related to memory costs, which he said was a risk. 

“It’s dangerous to raise prices when ROI for AI at the customer level is still unknown,” he wrote.

Kress said margins will bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter, and settle around 72% to 73% next fiscal as price increases take effect.

The SaaSpocalypse that wasn’t – how Salesforce, Booking and IBM are thriving with AI 


The apocryphal quip attributed to Mark Twain, “the rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated,” rings true for certain companies in the software space amidst widespread but premature fears of AI-driven obsolescence. 

Over the last year, approximately $2 trillion in software value has been torched on fears that AI will render many software businesses obsolete in the years ahead, in what has become known as the “SaaSpocalpyse,” prematurely announcing the death of the software as a service (SaaS) sector.

The original SaaSpocalpyse thesis of “death,” or at least massive disruption, was how bears were thinking in the early part of the year, but that bearish thesis has now morphed into a less drastic, but still incorrect, theme of how software companies will have to pay more for customer acquisition moving forward with far less pricing power, compressing margins and hindering profitability.

Just as the classic 1979 Francis Ford Coppola film Apocalypse Now was based on a fictional delirium, so, perhaps is the SaasSpocalyse now.

Yes: there is no question that many high-flying technology winners will be under increasing competitive threat from autonomous AI agents moving forward, and the list of companies that look vulnerable is a long one. 

At the same time, the panicked investor stampede to the exits across software firms has wrongly punished several of the clearest beneficiaries from AI as if they were obvious casualties. Three examples – Salesforce, Booking Holdings, and IBM – illustrate how, contrary to short-term market fears, there are certain software companies well positioned to become big AI winners in the long term, with greater profitability and pricing power from AI-driven wins, not less. 

Salesforce

The misleading bearish AI scenario has an appealing simplicity for some anxious analysts.

Salesforce, the leading customer relationship management (CRM) system, was wrongly predicted to be facing obsolescence by LLM companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, whose autonomous AI agents would presumably manage customer relationships from beginning to end.  This led misinformed critics to demote Salesforce from its robust position as the central command center of a business to that of merely a passive database sitting in the background that agents occasionally query. The erroneous presumption was that the AI models would capture all the value, and Salesforce would be relegated to being an interchangeable commodity if not entirely redundant. Down roughly 20% this year and 40% from its high, the stock has been priced for precisely that faulty diagnosis.

These confused critics read the dynamic backwards. Salesforce isn’t what’s being commoditized; it’s the LLMs, and in this new world, data is the new moat – and Salesforce has the data. As analysts at Wells Fargo declared, “lower cost of intelligence increases value of incumbent data.”

At the end of the day, AI agents are only as good as the data on which they operate. An AI agent working on closing a sale still needs somewhere to research the customer, log new interactions, store the contract, and customize the terms – and it needs decades of customer data and history to understand what all of it means. That’s where Salesforce comes in, as the ultimate repository of customer data. 

Despite analysts’ delusions, Salesforce in reality has processed over 216 trillion customer records this year alone, and still counting. All that customer data, ranging from key customer contacts, to deal histories, to support tickets, to marketing interactions and histories, already lives inside Salesforce for virtually every major company. There is no way to just rip that out and store it inside a LLM instead of Salesforce – nor would anyone want to trust a LLM as the repository of all their proprietary customer data. Clean, unified, trusted data is exactly what AI agents need to function well, and Salesforce has more of it than anyone, with built-in security and confidentiality protections far surpassing LLMs. 

No wonder the results reflect Salesforce’s position as an emerging AI winner. Agentforce, Salesforce’s AI agent platform, has gone from $100 million to $1.5 billion in annual recurring revenue within 18 months of launch, with well over 30,000 Agentforce deals already closed amidst exciting new partnerships with Anthropic’s Claude as the premier agent inside Agentforce. All those AI agents are producing more and more data by an exponential factor, which conveniently needs to be stored within Salesforce, with Salesforce ingesting 104 trillion records last quarter alone, double that of just last quarter.

And interestingly, the long-underestimated acquisition of Slack has become extraordinarily important to Salesforce’s AI future, as Slack is where key decisions are argued out, providing agents with critical context and human insights they would have never been able to glean from a database field alone. It is why Slack is growing at a record rapid clip, just delivering its fastest quarterly Net New Annual Order Value (“NNAOV”) growth since acquisition as Slackbot users grew over 150% Q/Q; and when Salesforce opened Slack up to outside AI agents, a million users plugged in within a month. Visionary founder/CEO Marc Benioff’s decision to spend $25 billion buying back his own stock in a single quarter earlier this year — the largest repurchase in company history, roughly a fifth of its market capitalization – is looking incredibly savvy for the largest repository of customer data on the planet.

The balance of power shifting to Salesforce, with Salesforce getting more pricing power, not less, is why leading frontier LLMs such as Anthropic are now rushing to strike partnerships with Salesforce, exemplified by the debut of “Claudeforce,” Salesforce and Anthropic’s exciting new partnership allowing full integration of Claude within Salesforce, a win-win partnership which will increase usage of both platforms and push customers toward the highest-end premier subscription plans. 

Booking Holdings

The bearish AI narrative here is also deceptively simple – and wrong.  Earlier this year, some analysts presumed that if a traveler can ask a chatbot for a hotel or flight, who needs Booking.com? But time has shown just completely wrong those skeptics were, with Booking Holdings stock having now bounced back to near all-time highs, just as other OTA rivals such as Expedia have as well. The mistake these wrongheaded skeptics made was simple: they mistook Booking Holdings as a search engine when in reality, it is a differentiated travel transaction platform enjoying a strong competitive moat. 

The distinction that matters, and which is too often overlooked, is between the top of the travel funnel, where trips are discovered, and the bottom, where money changes hands and the trip actually planned and executed. Travelers are indeed turning to AI for recommendations, and that is genuinely ominous for metasearch and referral businesses whose entire function was comparison. It is not ominous, however, for the company that is merchant of record on roughly three-quarters of its bookings — a share up four points in the past year and still fast rising — settling more than 100 payment methods across 50 currencies and adjudicating the thorny disputes and complex last-minute cancellations that AI platforms have shown no appetite to touch. 

Indeed, Google’s own leadership declared that the company has “no intention of becoming an OTA (online travel agency)” and has zero interest in acting as merchant of record. OpenAI reached the same conclusion the hard way, retreating from in-chat checkout this spring after a badly botched rollout was widely panned. 

Furthermore, contrary to popular perception, almost all of Booking.com’s room nights come from independent properties and smaller hotels, to the tune of 90% of all bookings, rather than large hotel chains. These smaller properties would never be able to run global payment processing, multi-currency settlement, and dispute resolution even if they are somehow able to surface independently through AI searches. This is the critical gap that Booking’s infrastructure fills, and why Bookings’ hotel partners are so loyal and not going anywhere anytime soon. The importance of this structural advantage shielding against LLM disruption can be seen in how Airbnb’s stock price is up 40% YTD, partly because its inventory of exclusive properties is seen as a strong moat against LLM disruption. 

However, those same bears, undeterred by their prior mistakes as the overwrought SaasPocalypse “death” narrative faded, have now pivoted towards believing that just like with Salesforce, Booking Holdings will have less pricing power moving forward, and will have to pay more for customer acquisition than it did before with less direct customer loyalty, compressing margins and hindering profitability. But this margin compression thesis is equally wrong, as accelerating AI changes will only increase the relative power of Booking Holdings in the marketplace and make its value proposition more singular and irreplaceable. 

Simply put, Booking Holdings is well positioned to use AI to gain even more market share from its less tech-savvy competitors. With Booking Holdings’ moat secure as the travel infrastructure provider of choice, there is every reason to think that AI will only drive greater traffic towards Bookings’ unique platform in the years ahead, rather than less. We are still in the earliest stages of this pivot, as AI-driven traffic has been remarkably limited for OTAs thus far. On its August earnings call, Booking disclosed that traffic sourced from large language models remains well below 1% of room nights, with no material change over recent quarters, while direct traffic held steady in the mid-60% range and grew in absolute terms. 

But in a future where AI drives an inevitably greater share of discovery, building on the lessons it has learned bidding for web browser search traffic for 20 years, Booking Holdings is the best positioned of its competitors to apply those lessons to bidding for preferential AI traffic and advertising – with the same tried-and-true machinery for converting a click from search traffic, regardless of whether from AI or from a search engine, into a direct, repeated, loyal Booking customer. That is the same exact singular playbook Booking has pioneered to perfection under the continued leadership of Booking’s widely admired CEO, Glenn Fogel, who is seen as one of the best capital allocators of our era – all of which are unique advantages that position Bookings to be the biggest AI beneficiary of any of its competitors. 

IBM

IBM bears wrongly believed they’d stumbled onto gold last month when IBM stock fell 25% in a single day, the worst in the company’s history, as several large clients redirected capital budgets towards memory amidst a severe memory crunch. Although a third of those supposedly lost deals ended up closing within the next few weeks, and IBM CEO Arvind Krishna won widespread plaudits for his honest transparency. 

Nonetheless, a common misguided bearish narrative is that AI is poised to disrupt IBM’s $21 billion consulting business as well as its hugely profitable legacy software business, on which runs the core systems of many banks, insurers, and airlines. 

But what some critics miss is that AI has actually been a boon for IBM’s consulting business: AI now accounts for half of all new consulting signings and is one of the largest components of IBM’s backlog — at far higher margins than traditional consulting, thanks to IBM now being able to bill on the basis of outcomes and productivity rather than brute hours worked. And Red Hat, the software that enables a company’s AI agents to run across any cloud and any platform, grew 11% as paradoxically, AI creates new needs for software powers continued revenue growth in the subscription software business. 

Simply put, IBM is being paid to build the AI transition, not run over by it, which is why IBM’s AI business has more than doubled over the last year.  

Paranoia and Panic Are Different 

Everybody – ourselves included – concedes that AI is disrupting legacy technology and software companies. But financial markets seem to be tossing out the baby with the bath water, looking past vital software companies which own things that AI agents cannot run without. The key question now, is whether a company still owns something that AI agents need, and where the power in the marketplace lies. And we believe that power is rapidly shifting back to software firms which just months ago were seen as the biggest losers but are now quickly transforming into the biggest winners from AI. 

Salesforce owns the data that AI agents cannot operate without. Booking Holdings owns the travel platform that agents cannot execute travel bookings without. IBM owns the underlying technological infrastructure that AI agents run on. Every one of these is a differentiated moat, which is worth more in a world of AI, not less. These are just three particularly compelling examples of several prominent software companies poised to benefit from AI, with ServiceNow under the capable and experienced leadership of CEO Bill McDermott and Snowflake also standing out as core examples. 

As legendary Intel CEO Andy Grove famously quipped, “only the paranoid survive.” But paranoia and panic are very different, and amidst widespread panic across markets, commendable prudence has turned into reckless lack of discrimination in discerning AI winners and losers in the software space, with software bears missing the transformation taking place before our eyes as software firms turn into some of the biggest beneficiaries of AI. 

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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