Come Sept. 8, some $20 billion’s worth of U.S. goods will be subject to Canadian counter-tariffs of up to 50%. They follow the 50% duties imposed by Washington on Canadian goods on Aug. 22. Yet U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on Canada should be no surprise, after Washington declined to extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in July.
For four decades, Canadian commercial life has been organized around the belief that access to the U.S. market was a constant, rather than a variable. That assumption no longer holds, whether or not tariffs are here to stay.
So where should Canadians look to next? The answer is Asia—if both sides can overcome their mutual ignorance.
Yes, a pivot—where it makes sense
We estimate that the U.S. was the destination for 65% of Canadian goods and services exports in the first half of 2026. That’s down from roughly 75% in 2024, yet much of the shift was in a handful of commodities like oil, gold, and liquefied natural gas. The European Union and China attracted about 5% of Canada’s exports each.
No single market will replace the U.S. market, meaning Canadian companies will need to develop multiple smaller markets simultaneously. But the effort will be worth it: If Canada sells into several large, growing rules-based markets, it can treat the next unilateral decision from Washington as an annoyance, rather than an emergency.
Not starting from scratch
Fortunately, the groundwork for Canada’s expansion into Asia has already been laid.
Japan and South Korea are the immediate priorities, with their purchasing power, strong rule of law, and already-established links with Canada. Much of Canada-Japan and Canada-Korea trade already is, or soon will be, tariff-free. Canada offers Korea and Japan energy and agricultural products; Japan and Korea, in turn, supply batteries, semiconductors, machinery, and shipbuilding capacity. (Taiwan, too, offers the same benefits; the Taiwan-Canada Trade Cooperation Framework just awaits signing.)
Energy leads the way when it comes to Canada’s exports to Asia—facilitated by Asian investment. LNG Canada is backed by Petronas, Korea Gas, Mitsubishi and PetroChina; it already ships to countries across Asia.
The Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) notes that crude oil exports to destinations other than the United States were worth $10 billion in 2025 averaging roughly 430,000 barrels a day, up from effectively zero before 2024. Oil sales haven’t slowed: Alberta’s oil exports to China and South Korea rose by 122% and 227%, respectively in the first four months of 2026. Those energy flows cross the Pacific without ever passing through a contested chokepoint.
Other sectors that could gain from a shift to Asia are agrifood, forest products, aluminum, machinery, and digitally delivered services. Southeast Asia is an important growth area for these sectors. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore are all CPTPP partners. Vietnam offers growth and manufacturing demand; Malaysia gives industrial and processed-food opportunities; and Singapore is valuable as a regional base but also as a sophisticated end-market, particularly for niche agrifood and technology products.
The region’s largest markets offer other opportunities. India and Indonesia are high-growth, higher-friction markets which promise demand for machinery, industrial technology, infrastructure, and specialty inputs. Finally, China will remain a selective market for Canada, both in terms of sourcing and exports, given sensitivities around national security and overcapacity. Beyond oil, Canada-China trade will likely focus on less sensitive areas including pulp, paper, industrial materials and premium consumer goods.
The barrier is knowledge, in both directions
The obstacle isn’t market access. Canada and Asia already have the trade agreements, expert agencies, joint business councils and chambers of commerce to facilitate the flow of goods and services.
Yet with all this support, too few businesspeople—on either side of the Pacific—know what’s going on.
Polling by the Angus Reid Institute for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada found that 73% of Canadians say they know little or nothing about South Korea; 82% say the same of Singapore, and 90% of Malaysia. Yet 78% supported Canada’s CPTPP membership. Canadians endorse the agreement while knowing almost nothing about the countries inside it.
The mirror image is just as bad. In a Kadin Business Pulse survey of 276 Indonesian firms, 84% of respondents reported that they had either never heard about or knew very little of Indonesia and Canada’s free trade agreement. Many were unaware Canada has a preferential agreement with their country; among those who knew, interpretations of what it covers varied widely.
At the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, we hear similar anecdotes from Vietnam’s private sector, especially outside of the tech manufacturing sector.
You can’t leverage preferences you don’t understand. The work at hand is persuading hundreds of thousands of Canadian and Asian companies that now is the time to get to know each other. Governments can only do so much. Instead, the private sector on both sides needs to educate itself, get on a few planes, and test some markets and products.
The trade agreements and institutional elements are there to support this diversification. But companies must take the first step.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
Barrett Bingley is Asia Regional Director of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, based in Singapore. He was previously senior policy advisor to Canada’s foreign and trade ministers.
