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Forget Buying All Seven: The “Magnificent Seven” Stock Most Likely to Double by 2028


I think the megacap technology businesses — otherwise known as the “Magnificent Seven” — are fantastic businesses. These include Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms. But it is the seventh member of the Magnificent Seven, I think, that has the best chance to double by the end of 2028: Amazon (AMZN +1.00%).

The technology player is a beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI) and also enjoys massive economies of scale in its e-commerce delivery business. Here’s why I think the stock can double by the end of 2028 if the AI spending boom continues.

Today’s Change

(1.00%) $2.52

Current Price

$253.71

Amazon’s cloud growth

The AI boom has been a huge boon for Amazon’s cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS). Revenue grew 37% year over year last quarter and hit $148.4 billion over the last 12 months. If AWS’ backlog growth is any indication, along with its massive capital spending plans, this revenue growth should accelerate in the quarters ahead.

AWS likely has a path to doubling by 2028, driven by massive spending plans from AI start-ups. It also has fantastic profit margins, at at 37% over the last 12 months. If AWS revenue can grow to $300 billion, segment profits will reach $100 billion even if margins slip back closer to 30%. That is more than the profit Amazon as a whole generated in the last 12 months.

An Amazon delivery van.

Image source: Amazon.

Underrated e-commerce margins

We can’t forget Amazon’s other division, which houses its e-commerce platform, consumer electronics, and other services such as Amazon Prime subscriptions and advertising.

Combined, the North America and International segments now account for $627 billion in retail revenue. In the next few years, there should be continued growth from e-commerce taking share in markets around the world, along with margin expansion due to economies of scale. Plus, Amazon has seen strong growth in its high-margin advertising division, which was up 26% last quarter.

Lastly, it has expensive projects in development, such as the Amazon Leo satellite internet service. This is planning to begin operations later this year, and could be a nice growth engine that also helps profit margins at a greater scale. Amazon has also been investing heavily in areas such as faster delivery times, warehouse robotics, and self-driving vehicles. Once these technologies are implemented across its e-commerce supply chain, the business should see greater operating leverage and higher margins.

Overall, one should expect retail sales to continue growing in the double digits (both segments grew by 15% or more last quarter), with solid margin expansion. That could get the combined revenues to $829 billion after two years of 15% growth. Assuming profit margins can expand to 10%, that is $83 billion from the two segments two years from now.

AMZN EBIT (TTM) Chart

AMZN EBIT (TTM) data by YCharts

Why Amazon shares can double

Right now, Amazon has had EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $98 billion over the last 12 months. Combining my two estimates from the above section, I think this figure can close to double by 2028.

With a market cap of $2.7 trillion, Amazon trades at around 27x its trailing EBIT. Assuming this earnings multiple remains in 2028, then Amazon stock can close to double by the end of that year.

But close does not mean actually doubling. Where will the extra gains come from? Amazon has been a major investor in Anthropic and may own around 15% of its stock heading into Anthropic’s upcoming initial public offering (IPO) in October or November. At an expected valuation of $2 trillion, Amazon’s stake may be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Add that to the forward returns, and I think Amazon is a fantastic bet for investors right now, and perhaps the best Magnificent Seven stock you can buy today.

Fed supervisors knew SVB was vulnerable — and failed to act


The conclusions were unsparing: “Our supervisory staff knew, or should have known, about these vulnerabilities as early as March 2022,” Bowman said, summarizing the report.

SVB’s deposit base was 94% uninsured and concentrated heavily among venture capital-backed technology companies, according to the review, as reported by Bowman.

When the bank announced a $1.8 billion loss on securities sales and sought additional capital, depositors fled, triggering a run that regulators could not contain.

Federal officials, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve, moved to shutter the institution and extend deposit protection beyond the standard $250,000 limit.

A culture of caution that proved costly

The review identified a “long-standing culture of risk aversion” as a central driver of supervisory inaction.

Targeted U.S. Bank Offer: Spend $250, Get a $25 Statement Credit


Targeted U.S. Bank Offer: Spend $250, Get $25 Back

U.S. Bank is sending out a targeted spending offer to select credit cardholders. Eligible customers can earn a $25 statement credit after making at least $250 in net purchases within 60 days of enrollment.

Cardholders must enroll by October 2, 2026. One important detail is that U.S. Bank says to allow up to seven days for enrollment to process before purchases become eligible toward the $250 spending requirement.

Important Terms

  • Enroll by October 2, 2026
  • Spend at least $250 in net purchases within 60 days of enrollment
  • Allow up to seven days after enrollment for processing before beginning qualifying spend
  • Earn a $25 statement credit
  • Credit should appear on the statement following the one in which it is earned
  • Net purchases exclude credits and returns
  • Account must remain open and in good standing
  • Offer can only be enrolled in once
  • Offer applies only to the specific U.S. Bank card receiving the promotion

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Investing For Dividends: How It Works, What It Pays, And Where To Start


Key Points

  • A dividend is a cash payment a company sends to shareholders, quarterly for most U.S. stocks.
  • Reinvested dividends account for 85% of the S&P 500’s cumulative return since 1960, according to Hartford Funds.
  • In 2026, qualified dividends are taxed at 0% up to $49,450 of taxable income (single) or $98,900 (married filing jointly).

The short answer: investing for dividends means owning companies (or funds that own companies) that pay you cash out of their profits, and either spending that cash or reinvesting it to buy more shares. It’s one of the oldest ways to build wealth in the stock market, and it’s also one of the most misunderstood, because the headline yield tells you almost nothing about whether the investment is any good.

Dividends matter for two reasons. First, they’re real money: a company can fake earnings for a while, but it can’t fake a cash payment to your brokerage account. Second, they compound. Reinvested dividends buy more shares, which pay more dividends, and over decades that loop does most of the work.

Here’s how dividends work, how much they actually pay, how they’re taxed in 2026, and where to open the account.

Table of Contents

What’s a Dividend and Why Does It Matter?
How Dividends Get Paid: Dates, Frequency, And Yield
How Much Do You Need To Invest For Dividends?
Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP): How It Works
Finding Dividend Paying Stocks
The Problems With Investing For Dividends
Tax Implications
Best Places To Invest In Dividends
Who Dividend Investing Is For (And Who It Isn’t)
Dividend Investing FAQ
Final Thoughts

What’s a Dividend and Why Does It Matter?

A dividend is a share of a company’s profit paid to its shareholders. The board of directors decides whether to pay one, how much, and on what schedule; most U.S. companies that pay dividends pay quarterly. If a company pays $1 per share per year and you own 500 shares, you receive $500 a year, whether the stock price went up or down. Companies that have paid and raised their dividends for decades, the Dividend Aristocrats, are the group most dividend investors start with.

The reason dividends matter more than most beginners assume is compounding. Hartford Funds calculates that 85% of the S&P 500’s cumulative total return since 1960 came from reinvested dividends and the growth they compounded, and that dividend income averaged 33% of the index’s annual return from 1940 through 2025. That second number moves around by decade: in the 1970s and 2000s, when prices went nowhere, dividends were most of the return; in the 2010s they were a small slice. If you’re building a long-term portfolio, you want that cushion.

Dividends are also a signal. A company that has raised its payout for 25 straight years has survived at least three recessions without cutting it, which is why dividend growth investing is its own strategy rather than a subset of income investing.

How Dividends Get Paid: Dates, Frequency, And Yield

Four dates decide whether you get paid. The declaration date is when the board announces the dividend. The ex-dividend date is the cutoff: buy the stock before this date and you get the dividend; buy on or after it and the seller keeps it. The record date is when the company checks its shareholder list (one business day after the ex-date), and the payment date is when the cash lands in your brokerage account, typically two to four weeks after the ex-date.

Most U.S. stocks and ETFs pay quarterly. Some REITs and a handful of stocks and funds pay monthly; many foreign companies pay twice a year or once. Your broker’s dividend calendar shows the schedule for every holding, and portfolio trackers will project your income across the year.

Dividend yield is the annual dividend per share divided by the share price. A $100 stock paying $3 a year yields 3%. Yield moves inversely with price, so a stock whose yield jumps from 3% to 8% got there because the price collapsed, not because the board got generous. The S&P 500 as a whole yields about 1.06% as of September 11, 2026, the lowest reading in the index’s history against a long-run average of 4.2%, which tells you how much of today’s market return is price gain rather than income. That’s why a plain index fund is a growth holding, not an income holding, even though it pays dividends.

How Much Do You Need To Invest For Dividends?

Any amount. Every major broker sells fractional shares now, so $50 buys a slice of a $500 stock and the dividend arrives pro rata. The question people actually mean is how much it takes to produce meaningful income, and that’s yield math.

Divide the annual income you want by the yield. For $12,000 a year ($1,000 a month):

Portfolio yield Portfolio needed for $1,000/month
1.06% (S&P 500 today) $1,132,000
2% $600,000
3% (typical dividend ETF) $400,000
4% (high-yield, higher risk) $300,000

Two things follow from that table. The first is that living off dividends alone is a late-career goal, not a starting point; a 25-year-old with $5,000 should be reinvesting, not collecting. The second is that reaching for a 6% or 8% yield to shrink the number you need is how people end up owning the companies about to cut. If you want the full argument, our piece on building a compounding dividend portfolio walks through a realistic 30-year path.

Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP): How It Works

A dividend reinvestment plan, or DRIP, tells your broker to use each dividend to buy more shares of the same stock or fund automatically. At Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, and the other major brokers it’s a per-holding setting (at Fidelity: Positions, then “Manage Dividends”), there’s no commission, and fractional shares mean the whole dividend gets invested, not just the part that buys a whole share. Here’s why reinvesting is the engine of the strategy: $1,000 in the S&P 500 in 1982 grew to about $97,900 by 2022 with dividends reinvested, versus about $36,900 without.

Two things beginners miss. Reinvested dividends are still taxable income in a taxable brokerage account in the year they’re paid, because the IRS treats the reinvestment as a cash payment followed by a purchase; you’ll owe tax on money you never saw. And each reinvestment creates a new tax lot with its own cost basis, which is why a portfolio tracker that logs dividends earns its keep when you eventually sell. Inside an IRA or Roth IRA, neither problem exists.

Finding Dividend Paying Stocks

There are three ways to find dividend stocks, and most investors end up using two of them.

Start with a list. The Dividend Aristocrats are the 69 S&P 500 companies that have raised their dividend for 25 or more consecutive years; Dividend Kings have done it for 50. That’s a pre-screened set of companies whose boards treat the dividend as a promise, and it’s where the reader who left our oldest comment on this page (“I start with the dividend champions and achievers”) begins too. Many of the investing blogs we follow publish their own screens of this group.

Run a screener. Every major broker has a stock screener. The filters that matter for dividends are yield (2% to 5% is the sane range), payout ratio (dividends as a share of earnings; under 60% for most industries, higher for utilities and REITs), consecutive years of increases, and dividend growth rate. A dividend growth investor weights the last two; an income investor weights the first.

Buy a fund. For most people this is the right answer, because a single ETF gives you 100 or more dividend payers and the diversification that protects you from any one cut. The three funds beginners compare most in 2026:

ETF What it holds Expense ratio Yield
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity (SCHD) ~100 U.S. stocks screened for yield and dividend quality 0.06% ~3%
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) U.S. companies with 10+ years of dividend growth 0.04% ~1.5%
iShares Select Dividend (DVY) 99 high-yield U.S. stocks (Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index) 0.38% 3.56% (30-day SEC)

VIG is the growth-tilted choice, SCHD the balance, DVY the yield-first pick with a fee nearly ten times VIG’s. All three drop into the asset allocation of a young investor as the U.S. equity sleeve, or part of it.

The Problems With Investing For Dividends

Chasing the highest yield is the mistake that defines this strategy. A 9% yield on a stock is the market telling you it expects the dividend to be cut, and when it is, you lose the income and the price at the same time. Companies also sometimes pay out unusually large dividends ahead of bad news to give insiders a payday before the decline; if a yield looks too good relative to the company’s earnings, dividends don’t matter as much as the balance sheet does.

A dividend also isn’t free money. When a company pays $1 a share, its stock drops by about $1 on the ex-dividend date, because the cash left the company. Over time, a company that reinvests its profits well can grow faster than one that pays them out, which is why most of the biggest stocks of the last 15 years paid little or nothing. Dividends are one part of total return, not a substitute for it.

Ask why the company is paying. The good reason is that it earns more than it can reinvest at a decent return. The bad reason is that management has run out of ideas, or is paying to keep the stock price up. A rising payout ratio with flat earnings is the tell, and it’s the reason to read the quarterly report rather than the yield.

Tax Implications

How dividends are taxed depends on which account holds them and whether the dividend is “qualified.”

In a retirement account or HSA, there’s no tax on the dividend when it’s paid. Inside a traditional IRA or 401(k), dividends compound untaxed and you pay ordinary income tax when you withdraw. Inside a Roth IRA or an HSA used for medical expenses, they’re never taxed at all. The 2026 IRA contribution limit is $7,500, which is enough to hold a meaningful dividend position.

In a taxable brokerage account, you owe tax every year, even if you reinvest. Your broker sends a Form 1099-DIV for any payer that sent you $10 or more, and it splits your dividends into two boxes.

Ordinary (non-qualified) dividends are taxed at your regular federal income tax bracket, 10% to 37%. REIT distributions, money market fund dividends, and most bond fund income fall here.

Qualified dividends get the lower long-term capital gains rates. To qualify, the dividend has to come from a U.S. corporation or a qualified foreign one, and you have to have held the stock for more than 60 days during the 121-day window that starts 60 days before the ex-dividend date (more than 90 days in a 181-day window for preferred stock). That’s about two months, not six. Your 1099-DIV does the classification for you.

For tax year 2026, per IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-32, the qualified dividend rate depends on your taxable income:

Individual Income Tax Bracket

Qualified Dividend Tax Rate

$0 – $49,450

0%

$49,451 – $545,500

15%

$545,501+

20%

If you are married filing jointly, check this out:

Joint Income Tax Bracket

Qualified Dividend Tax Rate

$0 – $98,900

0%

$98,901 – $613,700

15%

$613,701+

20%

Those are taxable-income thresholds, after the standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 joint in 2026). A married couple with $60,000 of wages and $30,000 of qualified dividends has $57,800 of taxable income and pays 0% on every dollar of the dividends. Qualified dividends stack on top of ordinary income, so if wages alone push you past $98,900, the dividends are taxed at 15%.

One more layer above $200,000. The 3.8% net investment income tax (NIIT) applies to dividends, interest, and capital gains once modified adjusted gross income passes $200,000 (single or head of household), $250,000 (married filing jointly), or $125,000 (married filing separately). Those thresholds are set in law and don’t adjust for inflation, so a couple at $260,000 pays 15% plus 3.8% on qualified dividends. High earners holding big dividend positions in taxable accounts sometimes offset the bill with tax-loss harvesting elsewhere in the portfolio.

The practical rule: put your highest-yield holdings (REITs, high-yield ETFs, bond funds) in the IRA and your qualified-dividend stocks and low-yield growth funds in the taxable account, if you have both.

Best Places To Invest In Dividends

The account matters more than the broker, so pick the account first. All of the brokers below are on our list of the Best Online Stock Brokers, and every one of them offers commission-free trades, fractional shares, and free automatic dividend reinvestment.

If you’re investing through low-cost index funds and ETFs, Vanguard and Fidelity are the two we point most readers to. Vanguard runs VIG and the cheapest dividend index funds on the market; Fidelity is our top-ranked broker overall, holds any ETF including SCHD and DVY, and lets you set reinvestment per holding in two clicks. Either works as an IRA provider, which is where a dividend portfolio belongs if you have room.

If you want to own a basket of individual dividend stocks, M1 Finance is the broker built for it. You set up a “pie” of stocks with target weights, M1 buys fractional shares of each, and reinvested dividends go toward whichever holdings are under their target, so the portfolio rebalances itself. It’s the closest thing to a self-managed dividend fund, and it’s also on our best investing apps list.

Get started with M1 Finance here >>>

If you’d rather not pick anything, a robo-advisor will hold dividend-paying index funds inside a diversified portfolio and reinvest for you, at 0.25% or so a year.

Who Dividend Investing Is For (And Who It Isn’t)

Dividend investing fits an investor with a long horizon who wants a portfolio that pays something in every market, a retiree or near-retiree who needs income without selling shares, and anyone holding stocks in a Roth IRA where the tax drag disappears. It also fits people who need the psychological help: a quarterly deposit makes it easier to hold through a 30% drawdown than a screen full of red does.

It’s a poor fit for a 22-year-old with $3,000 who expects the dividends to pay rent (at 3%, that’s $90 a year), for a high earner holding high-yield funds in a taxable account (15% plus 3.8% on income you’re reinvesting anyway), and for anyone who picks stocks by sorting on yield. If your goal is passive income in the next five years, the math above says dividends are the slow road; if your goal is a bigger portfolio in 30 years, they’re most of the road.

Dividend Investing FAQ

How often do you get dividend payments?

Quarterly for most U.S. stocks and ETFs. Some REITs and income funds pay monthly; many foreign stocks pay semiannually or annually. You must own the shares before the ex-dividend date to receive that quarter’s payment.

How much money do you need to start investing in dividends?

With fractional shares, $5. To generate $1,000 a month, about $400,000 at a 3% yield.

Can you live off dividends?

At today’s yields it takes a seven-figure portfolio to replace a median income, and the S&P 500’s 1.06% yield means an index-only portfolio pays about $10,600 a year per $1 million. Most retirees who “live off dividends” own a mix of dividend ETFs, bonds, and individual stocks yielding 3% to 4% combined, and supplement with withdrawals.

Are reinvested dividends taxed?

Yes, in a taxable account, in the year paid, at the same rate as if you’d taken the cash. In an IRA, Roth IRA, 401(k), or HSA, no.

What’s the difference between qualified and ordinary dividends?

Qualified dividends come from U.S. (or qualified foreign) corporations on shares you’ve held more than 60 days around the ex-date, and are taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20% in 2026. Ordinary dividends, including REIT and money market fund payouts, are taxed at your regular bracket.

Is a high dividend yield good?

Above about 5%, treat it as a warning. Yield rises when the price falls, and the market prices in expected cuts. Compare payout ratio and dividend growth history before yield; the Dividend Aristocrats list is a safer starting screen than a yield sort.

Final Thoughts

Investing for dividends works because of compounding, not because of the yield. Own companies or funds that can keep raising the payout, reinvest every dividend you don’t need to spend, hold the highest-yield pieces in a tax-advantaged account, and check the 2026 tax thresholds before you assume the income is free. Then give it 20 years.

Do you prefer to invest in dividend paying stocks?

Editor: Clint Proctor

Reviewed by: Chris Muller

The post Investing For Dividends: How It Works, What It Pays, And Where To Start appeared first on The College Investor.

I fled communism. Are Gen Z drawn to it?



I recently came across a statistic that sent chills down my spine, having been born in a communist country. According to a recent Cato Institute Survey, four in ten (38%) 18-to-29-year-olds (and almost a third of 30-to-44-year-olds) are favorable towards communism. Communism’s appeal among Gen Z is twice as high as among 45-54 year olds, and three times as high as among those aged 55-64.

Momentarily I was transported back to the economic ruin, stripped supermarket shelves of grey, repressive 1980s communist Bulgaria, and the power outages and hyperinflation that followed in the 1990s in the post-communist Soviet bloc countries.

To me, communism means being forever stuck in mediocrity, silence, and a fawning existence marked by hollow propaganda heralding non-existent equality and demanding self-sacrifice “in the name of all”. It means a ruptured relationship with the engines of a happy life, like truth, trust, empowerment and success. It means being continuously lied to by those in power, being prohibited from expressing yourself freely and repressing any big dreams of standing out from the crowd that you might otherwise have had.

What is it then that so many young American adults like about communism, I wondered, fairly certain that it was not any of the facets I associate communist regimes with.

To get some answers I interviewed Fenley Scurlock (18), co-author of Down to Business and now a freshman at Brown University majoring in philosophy, and Atlanta-based Harper Bruner (17), a senior at Stanford Online High School focusing on history.

Despite communism’s collapse in 20th century Soviet bloc countries, the last decade has witnessed a surprising surge in interest in communism and socialism among the US public and journalists globally. Analysis by my consultancy AKAS reveals that Google searches for communism have reached an all-time high in the US, up 82% since 2006. Ahrefs analysis of 684 million English-language news pages published globally between 2016 and 2026 revealed that news mentions of socialism are now on a par with mentions of capitalism, while mentions of communism, although at a lower level, are at recent high.

In our conversation, Bruner observed that young adults are picking up on the heightened communism- and socialism-related rhetoric being “thrown around” by politicians and news commentators. Indeed, President Trump drastically escalated his warnings about communism this summer, mentioning the term 81 times in the two weeks surrounding 4th July. Calling his opponents “communists” seems to be one of Trump’s midterm election campaign tactics.

Bruner explained that young people are confused and turn to Google search and AI for clarification on the cacophony of terms – communism, socialism, utilitarianism, authoritarianism – that hold no historical resonance for them, being three generations removed from the past they signify.

Contrary to the political rhetoric’s intended effect, according to my interviewees most young people are not frightened by the threat of communism or socialism. They associate these terms with a different, often more promising, economic reality rather than with a political regime, let alone an authoritarian one (another term poorly understood among the young). As Bruner remarked, “We grew up without memories of the Soviet era. We view these terms more abstractly and associate words like communism with resources rather than with authoritarianism.”

Scurlock argued that the Republican red-baiting rhetoric has backfired, triggering instead a favorable attitude towards the ill-understood concepts of communism and socialism among young people. “Republicans are used to labelling measures like universal healthcare and universal basic income […] as ‘socialism’ or ‘communism’, which they use as scare words. But when you see something that looks good for people being labelled socialism, or communism, you think, ‘Well, those things seem good, maybe that means that socialism is good’.”

At the heart of communism and socialism’s disproportionate appeal among young people lies their increasingly curtailed economic prospects, which both Scurlock and Bruner talked about at length. With 53% of US 18-to-29s favorable towards socialism but only 45% favorable towards capitalism, Gen Z evidently feel let down by capitalism. And they are indeed wrestling with unprecedented economic precarity, as the rising age of first-time home buyers indicates (29 in 1981 vs. 40 in 2025).

“I think the problem is the lived economic frustrations associated with high costs of living, soaring house prices, student debt, low student wage. So, when you live under these difficult market conditions, the ideas and promises of universal equity or wealth redistribution naturally catch your attention,” rationalized Bruner. Having volunteered to support Hispanic immigrants she was keen to speak about the extreme economic inequality she had witnessed. “Some people don’t have access to a proper education, to a house or to technology… others don’t even have access to basic things like pens, pencils, diapers, period products and paper.”

Scurlock drew a detailed picture of failing capitalism, which so many from his generation fervently averse to. “In the last 40 years …we’ve seen large corporations become a sort of authoritarian entity in themselves. We see billionaires buying media companies and influencing their trajectory, the wealthy actively donating money to fund certain political candidates that they then can make demands of. We see monopolies, multinational corporations that are too big to fail. In other words, we see something that in one sense is not actually capitalism, something like a crony capitalism.” He further laid out the extraordinary economic unfairness his generation perceives: “You see companies outsourcing labor to China, to underpaid and often underage workers. You see a high level of corruption in government due to corporate interference. Young people look at our current system specifically in America and see that this system isn’t working.”

My conversations and research left me much less shocked at that statistic that had sent chills down my spine a few weeks prior. I see that many young people are searching for alternative systems to the one so many see as broken. Politicians must listen to them and provide an alternative that does not relegate Gen Z to the sidelines of prosperity and personal fulfilment but puts them at the centre instead. In Scurlock’s words, “We want more regulation, more individual ground-level say in the economy and less of one CEO at the top throwing $100 million to secure the election of a candidate who cuts their taxes.”

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Building Better Business Relationships in the Age of AI


Catch the Full Episode:

Overview

John Jantsch talks with returning guest Zvi Band about something most business owners already sense: AI can churn out a thousand warm-sounding messages before breakfast, but people can still tell when a message sounds like a machine instead of a human.

Social feeds are filling up with algorithm-picked content and AI-generated noise, which is part of why relationships feel more urgent right now. Band and Jantsch talk through where AI earns its keep, capturing details, surfacing who to reach out to, and where it falls flat: judgment, timing, the soft skills that make someone want to work with you.

This one’s for solo consultants and agency owners who know relationships drive their business but haven’t yet built a system for maintaining them. Band shares a rough decay rate for relationships, the mistake most people make once they get serious about their network, and 1 simple move you can make this week to get started.

Guest Bio

Zvi Band is the founder of Contactually, the personal CRM that helped thousands of professionals stay on top of their networks (before Compass acquired the company in 2019). He wrote Success Is in Your Sphere: Leverage the Power of Relationships to Achieve Your Business Goals, and he’s spent the years since building Relatable, an AI-powered personal CRM built around a different premise: people aren’t leads. Band joined the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast once before, years ago, and returns now to talk about what’s changed since.

Key Takeaways

  • AI-assisted note-taking can free up mental bandwidth, so you’re fully present in a conversation instead of mentally cataloging details to remember later.
  • Relationships have a rough 6-month decay window. After that, people fall out of mind, not from anyone’s fault, but from being flooded with too much noise.
  • Before adopting any relationship-building system or tool, get clear on why those relationships matter to you right now, since that “why” changes as your goals shift.
  • Treat relationship maintenance like gardening: a few contacts a day beats 1 marathon organizing session that burns you out and goes stale again by morning.
  • As AI takes over administrative tasks, soft skills, like noticing whether someone genuinely connects with you and asking the right follow-up questions, become the real differentiator.

Great Moments

  • [00:01] – Jantsch opens with the line that frames the whole episode: people can tell when a message came from a prompt instead of a person, no matter how well the AI is trained.
  • [02:43] – Band explains why relationships feel more urgent now: better-tuned algorithms are hiding people’s posts from each other, and AI content overload is pushing people to tune out entire channels.
  • [06:09] – Band draws the line between Contactually’s original mind-share, warm-leads framework and Relatable’s premise that people aren’t leads.
  • [12:45] – Band describes Relatable as a relationship OS built to answer 3 questions: who do I know, who should I talk to today, and what should I do to nurture that relationship?
  • [20:04] – Band walks through organizing a messy contact list: get everyone into 1 place, then work through a handful of contacts every day instead of a single weekend marathon.

Memorable Quotes

  • “The more burden AI can take off our plate, the more cognitive capacity we have to care.” — Zvi Band
  • “AI can take the transcript and capture the details, but it’s not going to pick up the little things, like whether someone smiles when they’re talking to you. Only a human notices that.” — Zvi Band
  • “When someone finally decides to take their network seriously, very few make the jump from treating it like a New Year’s resolution to treating it as something they strategically execute on a regular basis, with a real system behind it.” — Zvi Band
  • “My guidance for people is to start with a clear why. Why is building relationships worth my time, my money, and the hours I could be spending with my family or elsewhere in my business?” — Zvi Band
  • “The magic number I’ve seen for how long you can go without staying in touch is around 6 months. Once you go past that, it’s nobody’s fault, people are just inundated with so much messaging that you fall out of their mind.” — Zvi Band

Resources

AI relationships, personal CRM, relationship building, Small Business Marketing, Zvi Band

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The Offer

Direct link to offer

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Our Verdict

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What Will Today’s Fed Rate Hike Mean for Mortgage Rates?


The Federal Reserve is almost guaranteed to hike rates today.

Odds are currently around 93%, per CME FedWatch, meaning it’s basically a sure thing.

In the Fed’s history, they’ve never defied odds like that so a ¼-point hike should be delivered as expected.

The impact on mortgage rates is less certain, as it always is because the Fed only deals with short-term rates.

But it wouldn’t shock me to see some relief for mortgage rates today, though the longer-term picture will remain data-driven as always.

Will the Fed Hike Lower Mortgage Rates?

First off, let’s quickly dispel the myth that the Fed sets mortgage rates. They don’t. They only set their overnight lending rate between banks.

This means if the Fed hikes, mortgage rates don’t automatically go up.

Similarly, if they cut, mortgage rates don’t automatically go down.

The only DIRECT impact on home lending is HELOCs, which are tied to the prime rate and do go up or down depending on a rate or hike of the federal funds rate (which correlates 100% with the prime rate).

So if you have a HELOC, it will likely rise by 0.25% because of today’s FOMC decision.

The good news is 0.25% shouldn’t affect the payment too deeply, though it’s still another blow with everything seemingly more expensive every day.

Now let’s talk about how the Fed does impact mortgage rates. It does so via Fed rate expectations.

The mortgage rate market reacts to what it thinks the Fed might do over time.

So if MBS investors think we’re entering a tightening cycle, they might demand higher yields (interest rates) as time goes on.

However, this isn’t a perfect science and it typically takes place before the actual Fed decision, not on the day of.

Fed Moves Often Counter Mortgage Rate Moves

This explains why mortgage rates and Fed rate hikes/cuts can diverge and often do.

In fact, on the day of many of the most recent Fed rate decisions, mortgage rates went the other way.

I pointed this out when they were hiking back in 2022-2023.

During that tightening cycle, the Fed hiked 11 consecutive times. It was painful for the economy and for mortgage rates, which also increased from sub-3% to as high as 8%.

However, that had more to do with the end of QE (the MBS buying program) and inflation than it did the Fed raising its overnight rate.

Interestingly, on nine of those 11 days, mortgage rates actually fell. So the Fed hiked, and mortgage rates went down!

While that might seem bizarre, especially when so many wrongly believe the Fed sets consumer mortgage rates, it makes perfect sense.

Remember, the market front-runs Fed decisions because they’re so obvious and telegraphed.

So when the actual news gets delivered, it’s often just a relief valve going off.

Similarly, when the Fed cuts, the market has already made its move lower. Mortgage rates go down in anticipation, often weeks before, so there isn’t another move lower on cut day.

Instead, mortgage rates may actually move higher on a cut day!

The Underlying Economic Data Matters Most, As Usual

Ultimately, it’s the underlying economic data that matters most, as it always does.

The Fed just works off this data, whether it’s the monthly jobs report or the PCE report (inflation gauge).

They aren’t really coming up with their own decisions independent of this data.

They are making monetary policy decisions based upon this data.

This means if you want to know which direction mortgage rates will go, simply follow the data.

As a rule of thumb, if the economy/prices are cooling, mortgage rates tend to go down.

If the economy is heating up (prices rising), mortgage rates tend to go up.

It’s pretty much as simple as that.

Aside from the seemingly foregone conclusion of a 1/4-point rate hike today, there is also the press conference with Fed chair Kevin Warsh today.

What he says also has the power to move mortgage rates, though again, it will all depend on the underlying economic data. And he will say as much.

(photo: k)

Colin Robertson
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