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How Mergers Impact New Hampshire Customerss


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On the surface, bank mergers might seem like an expansion of financial services to communities. The reality is it’s not as beneficial as it may seem.

Today’s economic landscape is driven by profits, growth, and market share, both global and local. From AI technology, oil and energy, to utilities and local financial institutions, everywhere you look smaller businesses are being merged into global powerhouses.

bigger banking isnt always better

But that doesn’t mean progress. In some cases, it can lead to higher consumer costs, destabilization of regulations, and a negative impact on the customer experience.

That’s why local banks like Union Bank are more important than ever when it comes to financial services. For over 130 years, Union Bank has worked with local folks in Vermont and New Hampshire to understand their lives and financial needs.

The Hidden Risk of Bank Mergers

Before we dive into details, let’s take a look at what a merger really means, and how it differs from an acquisition.

big bank mergers can cause longer waits

A merger is when two companies create a single, new company that leverage combined assets and liabilities. An acquisition is when one company (typically a larger company) takes over either all or part of an existing company’s assets and liabilities. Many times, the acquired company becomes a subsidiary by retaining its brand but follows the larger companies’ business model.

In terms of financial institutions, the end result of either a merger or acquisition are typically the same:

  • Customer service disruptions
  • Impact on products and fees
  • Decline in personalized experience
  • Potential exposure to corruption

Customer Service Disruptions

During any merger there is a transition period where technology, processes, and control platforms are consolidated to reduce redundancy within the bank.

bank mergers cause unwanted change

While the banks may see this as critical to growth, it can result in service disruptions on mobile apps, delays in common transactions that can leave customers without access to their funds, and higher wait times for a customer service representative.

 Impact on Products and Fees

Having a consistent and reliable experience with financial products like checking accounts and understanding fees are important to all customers.

You don’t want to suddenly see increases in fees on products you’ve used for years, or even worse have free checking accounts now require a monthly fee. There have been noted cases where after a merger certain accounts or products are discontinued or closed, leaving customers in the dark and potentially losing money.

Decline in Personalized Service

A recent study over 20 years of bank merger trends in Northeast showed that for every merger there has been an average of 8.7 bank branch closings.  That means customers that relied on their local brank for everyday banking are left without options or need move to another local bank.

In addition, when branches close after a merger it impacts involvement in the local community. Many local banks sponsor fundraising events, contribute capital to energize local business, and provide financial literacy education.

Potential Exposure to Corruption and Unfair Practices

While corruption might not be at the top of the average bank customer’s mind, it can have a tremendous impact and disruption to their banking experience.

Recent examples include a large credit union being fined $95 million for unfair practices of overdraft fees, and the most significant example is a $3 billion fine for anti-money laundering that led to store closures.

Many times, after mergers criminal organizations will take advantage of inconsistent regulation practices that can tarnish a bank’s brand leading to customer distrust.

Stability in Banks Leads to Confidence

Local banks with years of experience like Union Bank offer customers stability and predictability with key factors that help build customer confidence.

The Power of Local Banks

Just because a bank doesn’t have a flashy logo, expensive commercials, or sponsor major entertainment events, it doesn’t mean they are offering less than the big banks. In fact, local banks have a bigger impact on the nation’s economy than you think.

The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) compiled some key statistics about how important the longevity and stability of local banks have on the economy.

  • Represent $4.0 trillion in consumer, small business and agricultural loans
  • Have nearly 45,000 locations nationwide
  • Employ nearly 700,000 people
  • Make roughly 60% of U.S. small-business loans under $1 million and 80% of banking industry agriculture loans
  • Are the only physical banking presence in one in three U.S. counties

Comfort in Predictability

Because local banks don’t rely on a large parent company dictating fees, changing application processes at any time, or removing a product without notice, customers can rely on predicable financial services.

This is most important when planning budgets; no hidden or new fees or sudden changes in rates means you can confidently allocate and save your hard earned money.

Straightforward  Mortgage Services For New Hampshire Residents

Local banks like Union Bank don’t just serve their customers—they’re part of the same community, just like the people who work there. That connection gives them a clear understanding of the importance of a simple, straightforward mortgage process.

They ensure the application process is clear and offer assistance if needed, handle escrow, offer consistent terms and upfront rates, which means customers can finance their home with confidence.

Control of Decisions

When a bank is merged or acquired by a large bank, the ability to make decisions on a local level is lost. This can impact how local banks make decisions on major changes, customer service policies, or even how they engage and support local initiatives.

Not to mention local businesses can sometimes suffer from not having their full financial potential being taking into account when applying for loans. How can a bank make a decision on your business when they don’t even live in the community or know the business owner? That will never happen at local banks.

The Union Bank Difference

As you can see, large banks that like to merge or acquire banks just for the sake of growth can never match the personalized experience and service like local banks.

Union Bank has been independent and rooted in Vermont and he New Hampshire communities for more than 130 years.  We offer the same products and services as the large banks, but with a personalized approach.

  • Personal Banking – from basic checking accounts, specialty products for seniors, or Money Market accounts, they have you covered all with the convenience of mobile banking
  • Commercial Accounts – keep your local business running smoothing with checking accounts, merchant services, HR and payroll, and lending products tailored to your business needs
  • Mortgage Loans – buy your dream home, find a vacation home, or refinance for home improvements, Union Bank has it all
  • Personal Loans and Credit Cards – consolidate debt, tap into your home equity, or open a new credit card
  • Wealth Management – take control of your retirement and set up your estate and trust
  • Union Bank Blog – get sound financial advice and tips to make your money work harder for you

Visit Union Bank at one of their New Hampshire locations, open an account online, or contact them.  Once you experience the Union Bank difference, you’ll know why they have been trusted by the Vermont and New Hampshire communities for more than 130 years.

Over 200 Crypto Firms Now Back the Clarity Act. If It Passes, This 1 Cryptocurrency Could Soar in Price


On June 7, a coalition of more than 200 crypto firms sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, urging them to schedule the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for a full Senate vote. The coalition argues that passing the Clarity Act would establish a federal framework for digital assets, clarify the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC, create clearer registration pathways, and extend protections to software developers.

The House of Representatives passed the Clarity Act last July. Still, it’s been stuck in limbo in the Senate amid debates regarding anti-money-laundering measures, rules for decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, rules for government officials holding cryptocurrencies, and community bank deregulatory provisions. But if it finally passes this year, Solana (SOL +11.27%) could skyrocket and outperform many other cryptocurrencies.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why will Solana benefit from the passage of the Clarity Act?

Solana served more than 11,500 developers last year, making it the second-largest developer-oriented blockchain after Ethereum (ETH +9.99%). Solana’s Layer-1 (L1) blockchain is also the fastest in the world.

Solana already handles nearly a third of all stablecoin transfers through partnerships with Circle, Visa, PayPal, Stripe, and other digital payment companies. It’s also being increasingly used to tokenize real-world assets (RWAs).

Solana Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(11.27%) $7.61

Current Price

$75.17

However, the SEC has repeatedly targeted Solana with enforcement actions, labeling it an “unregistered security” rather than a digital commodity like Bitcoin. That pressure, along with the broader macro headwinds, drove away Solana’s investors and caused its price to plummet more than 50% over the past 12 months.

The Clarity Act could stop that bleeding by reclassifying Solana and other mature blockchains as fully decentralized networks, to be regulated by the CFTC (which classifies Solana as a digital commodity) rather than the SEC. That reclassification will likely drive more investors back to Solana and its first batch of U.S. ETFs, which were approved in late 2025.

Solana, like Ethereum and other PoS blockchains, allows investors to stake (lock up) their tokens to earn rewards similar to interest. Those yields are high, but they’re also exposed to shifting regulations and opposition from conventional banks. If the Clarity Act removes those regulatory hurdles, it could attract much more attention from yield-seeking investors.

Is it the right time to buy Solana?

Solana’s bottleneck was never its technology. Instead, it was the shifting regulations and clashes between the SEC and CFTC that made it difficult to quantify. But if the Senate finally passes the Clarity Act with favorable terms for Solana and other similar blockchains, its price will surge.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, PayPal, Solana, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short June 2026 $50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Introduction To Management | Meaning | Characteristics | Objective | Importance | With Short Tricks



Introduction To Management | Meaning | Characteristics | Objective | Importance | With Short Tricks

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Synthetic Risk Transfers Are the Talk of the Town. But Are They as Scary as They Look?


SRTs are a form of synthetic securitization, often called “on-balance-sheet securitization,” in which a bank offloads a portion of a loan portfolio’s credit risk through a contract, typically a credit derivative or guarantee, without fully selling or removing the loans from its balance sheet.

In Europe, where the market was born, the investor typically acquires mezzanine loan risk by selling (writing) a credit default swap (CDS) and, in the United States, through a credit-linked note (CLN). The primary protection sellers are public and private credit funds, which are attracted by competitive yields, access to high-quality diversified credit exposures, and the ability to tailor risk via tranches. Banks pay for this protection because it allows them to transfer part of their loan risk to investors, which in turn reduces their regulatory capital requirements and frees up capital for new lending at a lower cost than raising equity.

The originating bank retains the first loss (junior) tranche[2]. The investor, who does not have specific knowledge of the pool’s underlying loans (only generic details like maturity, ratings, and industry) earns a fixed premium or coupon. If defaults in the portfolio occur, the bank absorbs the first loss while the investor covers losses up to the mezzanine tranche limit.

The bank retains the client relationship, loan administration, and interest income to maintain “skin in the game,” which is a regulatory requirement. But since it shed a portion of the portfolio risk, the bank is permitted to reduce capital against the loans.

SRTs are typically engineered for capital relief and risk management. On the former, Basel capital rules are widely viewed as excessively penalizing certain assets. For example, auto loans require disproportionately high capital despite extremely low default rates. SRTs allow banks to reduce risk-weighted assets (RWAs) by 50% to 80% in many transactions. In addition, by transferring risk without shrinking their balance sheets, banks can reduce geographic, borrower, or sector concentration risk.

Q3 2026 5% Quarterly Categories: Activate, Offers & Suggestions (Freedom/Flex, Discover, Dividend, Cash+ & More)


It’s now possible to activate all 5% category credit cards for the third quarter of 2026, including the Chase Freedom, Chase Freedom Flex, Discover IT, Citi Dividend, US Bank Cash+ and some smaller cards. In this post we’ll provide the activation link for each card, spend tracker links, and strategies to help increase spend within these categories.

Dates: July 1st – September 30, 2026. Store purchases can usually be done until the last minute while online purchases should be given a buffer zone since the charge typically posts on the shipping date.

Chase Freedom – Gas, Transit, Entertainment

Activation Link / FAQ / Our original post

With the Chase Freedom and Freedom Flex cards, activate to earn 5% back this quarter on up to $1,500 in spend on Gas/EV, Public Transit, Select Live Entertainment, and United Way.

  • Gas Stations and EV Charging – some convenience stores count as Gas, and they might sell gift cards too. 
  • Public Transit – Merchants in this category include operators of passenger trains, buses, ferries, toll bridges and highways, and parking lots and garages.
  • Select Live Entertainment – (Possible stack with the Paze promo?) Merchants in this category sell tickets for live in-person entertainment such as major sporting events, zoos and aquariums, concerts, theatrical productions, museums, tourist attractions and exhibits, amusement parks, circuses, carnivals, bands, and entertainers. Ticket agencies selling on behalf of the entertainment venue are included. Some merchants that sell tickets for in-person entertainment are not included in this category; for example, movie theaters, bowling alleys, horse racing tracks, casinos, and dance hall/clubs. Purchasing from a hotel/concierge is not included nor excursions or purchases as part of a travel package.
  • United Way – charity

Tip: Click this link (login required) to check how far you are along the $1,500.

 

Discover – Gas, Transportation, Drugstores

Activation Link / Our original post

With the Discover card, activate to earn 5% back this quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases on Gas, Transportation, and Drugstores.

  • Gas and EV charging – some convenience stores count as Gas, and they sometimes sell gift cards too. 
  • Transportation – includes airlines and also commuter services such as bus and train. (Does not include car rental or taxi/rideshare.)
  • Drugstores – this is always a favorite since popular drugstores carry a wide array of goods and gift cards too.

Tip: Login, then click this link to see you how far along the $1,500 you are.

    • Gas Station purchases include those made at merchants classified as places that sell automotive gasoline that can be bought at the pump or inside the station and public electric vehicle charging stations. Gas stations & EV charging affiliated with supermarkets, supercenters, and wholesale clubs may not be eligible. Certain parking garages where public electric vehicle charging is offered or included may not be eligible.
    • Transportation purchases include those made through merchants classified as airlines, and local commuter passenger transport (such as bus, rail and ferry services). Long-range passenger landrail and bus charters are also included. Purchases made through travel agencies, travel aggregator sites or other third-party booking services may not qualify. Car rentals, cruise lines, taxi & rideshare services (including shared bikes and scooters), limousines, parking garages and toll-related purchases are not included.
    • Drug Store purchases include those made at stand-alone drug stores, pharmacies, and online pharmacies. Pharmacies inside of other retail stores may not qualify.

 

Citi Dividend – Gas, Home Improvement

Landing Page | Our Original Post

With the Citi Dividend card, activate to earn 5% back this quarter on Gas Stations and Home Improvement. Citi is different than the other cards in that you have a $6,000 annual cap rather than a $1,500 quarterly cap. You can get 5% back on up to $6,000 in this quarter, you can save the entire amount for a different quarter, or you can use part up each quarter.

  • Gas Stations – not clear if EV charging will count.
  • Home Improvement – nice category for the summer. Can buy gift cards at home improvement stores as well.

Gas Stations: Excludes gasoline purchases at warehouse clubs, discount stores, convenience stores or other merchants that do not use the gas station merchant category code. Home Improvement Stores: Includes purchases at home supply warehouse stores, lumber and building materials stores, paint and wallpaper stores, hardware stores, nurseries – lawn and garden supply stores and paints, varnishes and supplies stores. Excludes florists and florists’ supply stores; nursery stock; wholesale construction stores; and glass stores.

U.S. Bank Cash+/Elan – Select your Categories

Activation link | Merchant List | Our Original Post

U.S. Bank Cash+ and Elan Max offer 5% cash back in two categories, up to $2,000 combined total per quarter.

Here are the current options:

  • TV, Internet, and Streaming Services
  • Home utilities
  • Select clothing stores
  • Cell phone providers
  • Electronic Stores
  • Gyms/Fitness
  • Fast food
  • Ground Transportation
  • Sporting goods
  • Department Stores
  • Furniture Stores
  • Movie theaters

Tip: Login here, then scroll down and click on the red “View Your Cash+ History” button.

U.S. Bank Shopper – Select your Categories

Our Original Post

The U.S. Bank Shopper Cash Rewards comes with a $95 annual fee and offers 6% cashback on your first $1,500 in combined eligible purchases each quarter with two retailers you choose. Options include Amazon, Apple, Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, Target, and many more. You must enroll each quarter for two retailers.

Bank of America Customized Cash Rewards

Our Original Post

The Cash Rewards card from Bank of America offers 3% back on one selected category, up to $2,500 per quarter. If you don’t select anything it defaults to gas. Once you selected a category for one quarter, that remains your category in the future unless you change it. Each calendar month you can change it if you’d like, but you’re always limited to $2,500 for the entire quarter.

  • Gas and EV charging stations (default category)
  • Online Shopping; this category also includes cable, streaming, internet, and phone plan
  • Dining
  • Travel
  • Drug Stores
  • Home Improvement/Furnishings

This category is especially lucrative for those who have Preferred Rewards status with Bank of America which can get you 5.25% back on one of these categories at the higher relationship level.

Lots of useful categories here. Important note: the Cash Rewards card also offers 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs up to $2,500 per quarter, and that $2,500 limit combines with the Category Selection limit. After spending $2,500, you’ll earn 1% back on everything.

Other Cards with 5% Category

Nusenda FCU – Wholesale, Discount, Home & More

Landing Page & PDF with full details| Our Original Post | 2025 Post

  • Earn 5% this quarter, up to $1,875 in purchases, for Airlines, Hotels, Rental Cars, Gas, Miscellaneous Stores, Business Services (electronics, books stores, etc.), Retail Outlet Services, Education. See full list and eligible merchants on this PDF.

Langley FCU – Various

Landing Page | Our Original Post

  • Langley Federal Credit Union offers 5% back each month in one selected category, on up to $100 cash back total ($2,000 spend).
  • The category options at time of this writing: Automotive Services, Dining, and Amazon. (via email: Automotive Services includes charging, gas, and automotive maintenance)

Huntington Business Voice – Select 4% Category

Landing Page

Huntington Voice Business credit card you choose one of ten categories where you’ll earn 4% cash back—on the first $7,000 you spend per quarter.

  • Category options: Grocery Stores, Gas Stations, Restaurants, Travel and Entertainment, Home Improvement Stores, Utilities and Office Supply Stores, Department, Apparel, and Sporting Goods Stores, Electronic, Computer, and Camera Stores, Discount and Warehouse Stores, Auto Parts and Services Stores.

Safe Credit Union [CA] – ADD ME

Landing Page | Our Original Post

Safe Credit Union Cash Rewards Visa card offers 5% this quarter on your choice of one category each quarter, now limited to $1,500 in spend each quarter. This quarter the category is one of these:

  • ADD ME

Redstone FCU (TN,AL) – Dining, Travel, Amazon & More (?)

Landing page | Our original Post

  • Redstone Visa offers 5% on a category of your choice: travel, Amazon, restaurants, home improvement, and more options.
  • $1,500 cap per quarter.
  • You must select a category or you don’t get 5% on anything.

Your Marketing Has All the Pieces. Here’s Why That’s Not Enough.


Most founders who’ve been at this for a few years have pieces.

Some strategic clarity. A decent presence. Content running, mostly. Owned channels being built. Customer work happening somewhere.

The pieces are disconnected. Nobody owns the full picture. Different parts run on different rhythms. Reporting covers what each piece did in isolation, not whether the whole thing is moving.

That’s an assemblage. Assemblages are fragile in a specific way.

What makes an assemblage fragile

The founder gets pulled into client work for a month and it frays. A key person leaves and part of the picture walks out with them. A new tool shows up, gets bolted onto the existing structure, and the whole thing gets more complicated without getting more effective.

I use a simple test for this: if you got hit by a bus tomorrow, could anyone in your business run the marketing for 6 months? If the answer is no, the system isn’t installed. The assemblage is being held together by you.

A Marketing Operating System is the opposite. Integrated, documented, connected, running on a rhythm the business can maintain with or without the founder’s constant attention.

The four components

Integration

Strategy, messaging, the engines, and the Hourglass diagnostic all connect to each other. Nothing sits in isolation.

When the strategy updates, the messaging updates with it. When the Hourglass surfaces a gap at Trust, the Brand Engine responds with specific work. When the Growth Engine tests a new offer, the Customer Engine updates onboarding.

In practice: one source of truth for strategy and messaging, engines that are explicitly defined and visibly connected to that strategy, and a shared vocabulary the whole team uses. When any of those are missing, changing one thing doesn’t change the things connected to it. The system drifts.

Cadence

Most small businesses have emergencies and campaigns. Cadence is different.

What it looks like in practice: a 30-minute weekly review covering what shipped, what moved, what’s blocking. A 60 to 90-minute monthly performance review against the 3 engines. A half-day quarterly planning cycle. A full-day annual strategy refresh.

Cadence is unglamorous. It’s also the most reliable predictor of whether a Marketing Operating System survives or decays over time.

Measurement

Five to seven metrics connected to business outcomes. Brand Engine: presence health, content engagement, list growth. Growth Engine: inbound volume by channel, conversion by channel, owned vs paid ratio. Customer Engine: repeat rate, referral rate, customer lifetime value.

Reported consistently, in context, against a goal. A report that tells a story: what happened, why it matters, what we’re doing about it. Not 16 numbers in a spreadsheet that nobody changes a decision based on.

AI as a leverage layer

This is where AI actually belongs, and most advice on this is either too enthusiastic or too dismissive to be useful.

AI can’t make strategic judgments about your market, your customer, or your business. It can’t produce your point of view. The thinking is still your job.

Where it does belong: research, production, reformatting, analysis, and the communication mechanics layer (follow-up, scheduling, first drafts). Installed on top of a working system, AI compounds advantage. Installed in the absence of one, AI amplifies the confusion that’s already there.

That distinction is the one most founders aren’t being given clearly right now.

What it looks like when it’s working

A professional services firm I worked with did the Founder Portrait work, rebuilt around a single service line, installed Strategy First, built out presence, content, owned channels, and a Customer Engine, then ran the full system for 2 years.

Revenue up 60% on lower marketing spend than before. Paid acquisition dependence cut significantly. Meaningful recurring revenue from the Customer Engine. And the founder can step away for 2 weeks without the system breaking.

Because it’s no longer being held together by his attention.

That’s a Marketing Operating System.

One thing to do this week

Do the bus test honestly. Write down everything about your marketing that only you know. Who the real ICP is, because the document is out of date. What the actual priorities are, because the quarterly plan never got finalized. Which conversations are in progress.

Whatever ends up on that page is the gap between the assemblage and the system. That page is the first draft of the Marketing Operating System document.


The Marketing Operating System is the final step of a seven-step framework I’ve been refining for over 20 years. The full system, from the Founder Portrait through the MOS, is in my new ebook, “7 Steps to Small Business Marketing Success.” Get it at dtm.world/7steps.

To shrink the balance sheet, Fed must move past 2019 fears



  • Key insight: The biggest hurdle to shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet is the amount of reserves in the banking system necessary to ensure smooth market function. Fears of 2019-like reserve scarcity have shaped balance sheet management in the post-COVID era.
  • Expert quote: “They are haunted by this. They feel that was an own-goal and there’s been a lot of work in the Federal Reserve System to find out when those risks are in danger of repeating.” — Anil Kashyap, professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business
  • Forward Look: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants the central bank’s balance sheet to be smaller. This week he will give his first public remarks. 

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh wants to turn back the clock on the central bank’s balance sheet to 2010. To get there, he will have to go through 2019. 

Processing Content

The Fed’s first attempt to shrink its balance sheet resulted in a liquidity crunch that September, driving up funding costs across a host of financial markets. The episode caused the Fed to expand its balance sheet again and introduce new market-correcting tools. It has also made reserve management the primary consideration for the Fed’s balance sheet.

Reserves, or funds held by commercial banks at the Fed, make up about 45% of the liabilities on Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet. The other two major components are currency in circulation and the Treasury’s general account, neither of which the Fed has direct control over. 

When conversations about shedding assets from the Fed’s balance sheet turn to the question of which liabilities will offset those reductions, reserves are the clear answer. But, inevitably, those discussions come back to those weeks of financial stress in September 2019 and the institution’s imperative to avoid a repeat performance. 

“They are haunted by this,” said Anil Kashyap, professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. “They feel that was an own-goal and there’s been a lot of work in the Federal Reserve System to find out when those risks are in danger of repeating.”

Warsh, who will give his first speech as chair after this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, has his own history with the Fed’s balance sheet to contend with. 

Warsh was a Fed governor and member of the FOMC when it undertook its second round of quantitative easing — a move he was highly skeptical of at the time. According to a transcript of the committee’s meeting in November 2010, he expressed a litany of concerns, including that large scale asset purchases would have little impact on lending to the real economy, disproportionately benefit large financial institutions and increase the Fed’s footprint in financial markets. 

Warsh ultimately voted for the action grudgingly, noting that he did so only out of respect for then-Chair Ben Bernanke and with a hope that the Fed would swiftly reverse course if the policy did not deliver on the objective of stimulating economic growth.

“If I were in your chair, I would not be leading the committee in this direction, and frankly, if I were in the chair of most people around this room, I would dissent,” Warsh said to Bernanke at the time, adding, “I think this is called the Bernanke Fed for a reason. I’ve got a lot of confidence that if the risks that I talk about materialize, you will not hesitate and you will change your view, you will change this experiment.”

Warsh called for inserting caveats into the Fed’s policy statement that would have made it easier to end the expansion, but he gained little traction with the rest of the committee. He left the board four months later.  

Ample vs. abundant

One of the key lessons from the episode was that “ample” reserves — meaning slightly more than banks need to comfortably settle payments and meet liquidity needs — are not always enough to keep the financial system moving smoothly. 

Shortly before the crisis, banks believed the amount of reserves to be well above their needs. A survey of senior financial officers conducted by the Fed in August 2019 found that banks believed their lowest comfortable level of reserves was around $650 billion, or slightly more than half of the $1.15 trillion of reserves they collectively held at the Fed. At the time, reserves in the system totalled nearly $1.6 trillion, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 

That perceived excess disappeared quickly on September 17, 2019 following a confluence of events related to the Treasury’s general account — another liability on the Fed’s balance sheet that competes for space with reserves. An influx of corporate tax payments and a settlement of a large Treasury auction increased the general account, thus shrinking the supply of reserves to about $1.4 trillion. While still well above the aggregate lowest comfortable level, reserves were not evenly distributed throughout the banking system, with a handful of large banks hoarding large quantities and smaller banks bidding up borrowing costs to get more or retain what they had. 

The Federal Open Market Committee — the Fed’s monetary policy arm — held an emergency conference call on October 4, 2019 to discuss how to respond to the stresses in overnight funding markets. Patricia Zobel, then vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told the group that a “higher level of reserves may be needed to accommodate distributional frictions in reserve markets.”

In the months that followed, the Fed steadily added about $400 billion assets, which corresponded with $200 billion in additional reserves held by banks. How this would have played out of the longer term is unclear, as the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 instigated the Fed’s biggest balance sheet expansion to date — more than doubling in a matter of 18 months.

Still, the post-2019 view toward reserves in non-crisis moments remains prevalent. In a speech last July, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said he uses the episode to gauge baseline demand for funds parked at the central bank. He noted that going into 2019, reserves equaled 8% of gross domestic product, but slipped below 7% in September — a level that he said could be a critical threshold. 

“I start from the view that problems emerged when reserves fell below 8% of GDP,” Waller said. “One might argue that banks are now larger relative to GDP, so they may desire a bit more reserves. Furthermore, there is also a genuine concern that it is not only the total amount of reserves that matters but also the distribution of reserves across the banking system. So, I would add a buffer to the 8% of GDP that I cited earlier and assume 9% is the threshold below which reserves would not be ample.”

Based on this calculation, Waller argued that the minimum amount of reserves the system needed was $2.7 trillion — around $600 billion less than the amount of reserves at the time. He said the Fed could get to that optimal reserve level by continuing the balance sheet reduction schedule it was pursuing at the time. However, the FOMC voted to end that program during its December meeting and the amount of reserves in the system has climbed back to more than $3 trillion. 

This leaves the banking system in a position it has been in since 2020: one in which reserves are not only ample but “abundant,” or a level that is well in excess of what banks need. 

Darrell Duffie, professor of finance and management at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, said the Fed is making the logical choice by erring on the side of too many reserves.

“The Fed’s being conservative, but if you think about the asymmetry on the costs and benefits, the cost of going too small is very high, the cost of going too big is not that high, if you’re talking within the range of a few $100 billion,” Duffie said. “So, I think the Fed’s current policy is appropriate until they figure out a way to reduce the overall demand for reserves by banks.”

Policy remedies

Duffie, who has studied the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2019 liquidity crisis extensively, said the Fed has several options for curbing reserve demand among banks. He said a liquidity saving mechanism could be incorporated into Fedwire — the central bank payment rail used for bank-to-bank transfers — to reduce the volume of reserves needed to settle payments on a day-to-day basis. Similarly, the Fed could convince banks that they will not be penalized if they overdraft their accounts to meet payment obligations, so long as they are sufficiently collateralized. 

Yet, banks have shown a reluctance to trust that they will not be cited for taking advantage of such leniencies. Fears of supervisory rebuke have also made banks unwilling to use the Standing Repo Facility, the liquidity provision system established by the Fed in response to the 2019 liquidity crisis.

“Until recently, banks have said they are stigmatized by the idea of using the Standing Repo Facility, because it would indicate that they aren’t meeting the spirit, at least, of their regulatory requirement to be self-sufficient,” Duffie said. “Because, if you go to the Fed for more reserves, that means you didn’t have enough on your own, and  [an executive] might worry … that would signal to the Fed that you weren’t meeting this liquidity requirement.”

Duffie noted that the Fed has made some changes to the facility that have resulted in a modest uptick in use by banks, but more work should be done.

Others say the key to reduced demand should come through regulatory reform, namely changes to the liquidity requirements and changes to certain capital charges — like the supplemental leverage ratio — to make it easier for banks to hold other highly liquid assets to manage their liquidity needs. 

Andrew Levin, an economics professor at Dartmouth University and a former staffer at the Fed Board of Governors, said many of these reforms would require coordination across multiple agencies. 

“The right way to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet is in close coordination with the [Financial Stability Oversight Council] and Treasury’s Office of Debt Management,” Levin said. “Part of the issue in 2019 was that the Fed tried to do it in isolation.”

Others say more drastic reforms are needed. Norbert Michel, vice president and director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, said the most effective way to reduce interest in reserves is to stop paying interest on them. 

In the broad sweep of Fed history, interest on reserves is a relatively new phenomenon, being rolled out amid the financial crisis in 2008. Some policy advocates, including Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman had called for reserves to bear interest as far back as the 1970s, arguing that failing to pay interest amounted to a tax on banks. Michel said there is some merit to this logic but, ultimately, the benefits banks reap from holding reserves — including their safety, liquidity and the ability to transact on the U.S. payment rails — is compensation enough. 

“What you would have is more like what you had pre-2008 for almost a century, and … for the entire post-war period,” Michel said. “You would have banks in the market with each other and financial firms in the market with each other, and with banks funding themselves in what looks a lot more like a market-based, free enterprise-type system, one that works — one that did work very well, by the way.”



Trump gets Iran peace deal and rages against Netanyahu: ‘He has no f—ing judgement’


President Trump, Iranian officials, and Pakistani mediators have all said publicly that a deal has been reached to end the conflict in the Middle East. Stocks in Asia and Europe rose on the news as the price of oil fell. Few details have been made available as to what, exactly, is in the deal. Here’s what is being reported this morning

  • The deal will be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
  • It contains a pledge of no further hostilities for 60 days.
  • Both sides commit to further talks.
  • The nuclear issue remains unresolved—talks to come later.
  • The unfreezing of $12 billion in Iranian assets.
  • The Strait of Hormuz to be reopened after mine clearing.
  • The peace deal includes Lebanon but Israel isn’t signing it.

Back to the future: The deal basically puts the region back where it was before the conflict started. “For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said in a note this morning.

Leaked: Trump has lost faith in Israel’s Netanyahu

Another astonishing report by Axios claimed Trump was furious that Israel was attacking Hezbollah even as the talks neared their conclusion:

  • “It is so bad — I couldn’t believe it. An hour before we are supposed to sign the deal.” Trump acknowledged Hezbollah attacked Israel first but stressed it didn’t cause any damage and nobody had been killed. “Why did Bibi have to do a f—ing attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no f—ing judgement. I let him know that,” Trump said.

Trump also chided Netanyahu on social media. “This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened,” he said. “There should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon.”

“Ships of the World, start your engines”

Trump, exultant: In one of many posts on social media the president hailed the end of the war: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” 

The Rich Starry is on the move

The sanctioned Chinese oil tanker that Fortune has been tracking has made it through the Strait. For weeks it was trapped just off Qeshm island. Now it’s further south, off the coast of the UAE.

THE MARKETS

From war premium to peace dividend: Markets surge

  • S&P 500 futures were up 1.29% this morning. The index closed up 0.5% yesterday. 
  • In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.64% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.15% before lunch.
  • Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was up 5.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 4.99%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 1.26%. China’s CSI 300 was up 2.39%. 
  • Brent crude was $82 per barrel this morning, down from 92 yesterday.
  • Bitcoin was $65.6K.

Chart via TradingEconomics.com

Is the market’s stomach big enough to eat all these $1 trillion IPOs?

 

The SpaceX IPO last week was so massive that some traders worried that there would not be enough investment money to eat it all. That worry is likely to continue if and when Anthropic and OpenAI both go public, as they are both likely to also carry $1 trillion-plus valuations. 

Fear not, say Kriti Gupta and Abigail Yoder of J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “The scale is undeniably historic. But it is underappreciated how immense the public equity market these firms are entering has become. While we may not have seen companies of this size before, we’ve also never seen a market this large,” they said in a note seen by Fortune. “IPO supply is rising. But so has the market’s capacity to absorb it.”

“Consider two hypothetical scenarios for new IPOs valued at $1 or $2 trillion with a 10% float (shares available for public trading in the market). Naturally, that leads to some selling by benchmark indices. But … the total outflows would only be equal to about 1-2 days of their average daily trading volume. In other words: these are large deals, but may not be too large for today’s market to digest.”

In fact, estimated IPO volume for this year will still be slightly below that of 2021:

  • The market already has vehicles of this size within it. The three largest S&P 500 index funds now hold more than $2.6 trillion combined, per Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Slok. “Prices are increasingly set by mechanical flows rather than by anyone judging what companies are actually worth.” 

WARSH REALITY

The new Fed chair has little room to deliver the interest rate cuts Trump wants 

New Fed chairman Kevin Warsh will host his first interest rate decision on Wednesday. He’s highly likely to keep interest rates on hold at the 3.5% level, according to the futures markets. But as inflation is above that, at 4.2%, it means “the Fed is effectively easing monetary policy by not hiking rates, loosening financial conditions,” according to Bank of America’s Claudio Irigoyen and Antonio Gabriel. “After five years of above-target inflation, and with supply shocks becoming the new normal in a more geopolitically fragmented world, sound risk management for monetary policy may advocate otherwise.”

“Furthermore, the recent decomposition of inflation is bleak. Unless core goods inflation somehow becomes negative, no cuts should be in sight any time soon, even with a deal in Iran,” they predict.

  • What to watch for: Until yesterday, most Fed-watchers expected Warsh would remove the word “additional” from the Fed’s next statement, implying that the central bank was no longer enthusiastic about the prospect of applying more interest rate cuts. That’s probably still the case, but with the price of oil now in decline … who knows. Whether this word appears or not on Wednesday will be one of the market-moving issues in the announcement.
  • The dot-plot: Warsh is a critic of the chart which shows future rate expectations from the various members of the FOMC. He may remove this from the Fed’s traditional statement.

ONE BIG THING

Anthropic reels after White House bans new models on national security fears 

Dario Amodei, chief executive officer of Anthropic. 

Chris Ratcliffe—Bloomberg via Getty Images

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei was given 90 minutes by the White House to pull its Fable 5 AI model from international markets after Trump Administration officials were warned by Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy about concerns that the new models’ powers could be misused by hostile foreign actors, according to Bea Nolan of Fortune. A source told Fortune the company was given no previous communication of a national security threat. 

What followed were several calls between Amodei and senior administration officials during which Amodei argued the security bypass found by Amazon was narrow rather than a full jailbreak of the model’s safeguards.

MORE FROM FORTUNE

Social Security faces steep cuts. These senators want to bet on stocks and $27 trillion in debt to save it—but ‘the gamble does not always pay off’ – Jason Ma

A 1% mistake costs $10 billion: Inside the impossible math of managing Elon Musk’s trillionaire SpaceX wealth – Sydney Lake

Meet Gwynne Shotwell, the engineer-turned-COO who runs SpaceX in platform heels and is now worth over $2 billion – Eva Roytburg

Animoca Brands cofounder Yat Siu argues Asia will fuse AI and the blockchain before the West does – Angelica Ang

AI job disruption is here. The problem may be compounded because nearly 75% of people don’t apply for unemployment benefits – Jacqueline Munis

Kevin O’Leary says being liked has nothing to do with success—Steve Jobs taught him: ‘You can’t worry about whose feelings you bruise’ – Emma Burleigh

CHART OF THE DAY

The Iran war accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles in China

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the price of oil to over $90 per barrel, reinvigorated the Chinese electric vehicle market. “The EV share in car sales jumped since the war started, Daan Struyven and his team at Goldman Sachs advised clients recently. EVs are now the majority of new car purchases in China.

NUMBER OF THE DAY

$1 billion

The size of a request to buy SpaceX stock on Friday from a single family office, according to the Wall Street Journal.

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY

OnlyFans ‘agents’ control and threaten creators while taking half their earnings – BBC

Keir Starmer to announce Australia-style social media ban for teenagers – FT

Trump to Axios: Netanyahu has “no fucking judgment” but Iran deal still on – Axios

Anthropic Dispatches Staff to D.C., Racing to Resolve AI Export Restrictions – WSJ

Hedge Funds Reopen Pre-War Playbook as Iran War Risks Recede – Bloomberg

Protest at Stanford University graduation as Google CEO Sundar Pichai takes the stage – NY Post

ONE MORE THING

Ozempic’s hidden superpower: a $200K lifetime saving

People between the ages of 40 and 50 will save on average $192,735 in lifetime medical bills if they take GLP-1 weight loss drugs, according to a new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Surprisingly, those savings climbed to $220,000 for adults within the same age range without college degrees, Fortune’s Mia Osmonbekov reports.

“Obesity is a big comorbidity for a lot of different chronic conditions, so if you start GLP-1s, like that’s gonna kind of trickle down, and it’s gonna save money,” the study’s lead author, Felipe Montano-Campos, says. 

There’s only one problem: All those chronic conditions are likely to return the moment a patient stops taking the drug.

UK Finance Shares Roadmap For UK-EU Financial Services Collaboration


Ten years on from the Brexit vote, UK Finance has released a detailed report in partnership with law firm Freshfields, proposing a fresh strategic approach to ties between Britain and the European Union in the financial sector. Titled Unlocking Growth Through a Stronger UK-EU Financial Services Partnership, the update from UK Finance now urges both sides to prioritize the industry at the forthcoming leaders’ summit and integrate it into broader efforts to reset political relations.

The UK’s financial services industry serves as a driver of economic expansion, cross-border investment, and stability for companies and households throughout the UK and EU.

The report, informed by in-depth research and discussions with diverse stakeholders—including British, European, and international banks, diplomatic officials, policy experts, and industry groups—advocates building a more purposeful partnership that respects each side’s autonomy while delivering shared benefits.

At its core is a phased three-stage plan designed to begin with feasible, immediate actions that lay the groundwork for progressively deeper integration over time.

In the short term, over the next two years, the focus should be on practical enhancements to existing frameworks.

This includes fully leveraging the UK-EU Memorandum of Understanding by transforming the joint Regulatory Forum from a forum for basic updates into a platform for proactive alignment on emerging rules and initiatives.

Financial services should also become a regular, high-level topic at annual UK-EU summits to ensure consistent high-level engagement.

Additionally, both parties need to provide lasting stability through permanent equivalence decisions for UK central counterparties (CCPs) and by eliminating the expiry clause on the EU’s data adequacy ruling for the UK.

Looking further ahead, over the next four years, structural reforms would tackle regulatory mismatches and reduce unnecessary obstacles to serving Europe’s financing requirements.

Key proposals include negotiating a dedicated mobility pact for financial professionals, drawing inspiration from the UK-Switzerland arrangement, to ease the movement of skilled talent.

Authorities should also resolve the gap in the EU’s Capital Requirements Regulation by granting equivalence, which would cut compliance burdens and operational hurdles for firms operating across borders.

Collaboration could be expanded through pragmatic, issue-specific equivalence assessments, alongside experimental joint projects such as a “competitiveness laboratory” and shared regulatory sandboxes to foster innovation.

In the longer term, the vision extends to more formal arrangements, potentially including a comprehensive UK-EU Financial Services Agreement modelled on the UK-Switzerland Berne framework.

An even bolder aspiration involves contributing to a truly integrated pan-European capital markets framework spanning the UK, EU member states, the European Economic Area, and European Free Trade Association countries.

Kerstin Mathias, UK Finance’s Director of International Affairs, highlighted that while the UK and EU maintain closely linked financial ecosystems, their formal ties have yet to reach full potential.

She emphasized that neither side seeks a return to single market arrangements, but both can gain significantly from smarter cooperation that aligns with their respective goals and global obligations.

Emma Rachmaninov, a partner at Freshfields, noted the common objectives and adherence to international standards shared by both jurisdictions.

The phased approach aims to strengthen foundations today while gradually expanding mutually advantageous cooperation without compromising sovereignty.

Marsha de Cordova MP, Co-Chair of the UK-EU Parliamentary Partnership Assembly, acknowledged the report’s emphasis on how enhanced partnership could stimulate growth and deliver tangible advantages for businesses and economies on both sides. As Europe navigates various economic challenges, this roadmap offers a pragmatic pathway to harness the strengths of interconnected global financial markets.