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Booz Allen Hamilton: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors


On its earnings call held on Oct. 23, 2026, to review its 2027 fiscal year’s second quarter, which ended Sept. 30, Booz Allen (BAH -0.32%) announced that it remains on track to meet full-year financial expectations while accelerating investments in cyber and defense technology. A multiyear transition toward outcome-based contracts and proprietary products is reshaping how the government contractor delivers solutions.

That strategic pivot aims to expand profit margins and decouple revenue growth from headcount over time. Three key takeaways from management’s comments highlight where the business is heading.

1. Fixed Price Contracts Drive Margin Expansion

Management is actively shifting its contract portfolio toward firm fixed price structures, where the company agrees to deliver outcomes at a set price rather than billing for labor hours and expenses. This transition allows the business to capture higher profits as it improves operational efficiency and deploys reusable software tools across national security clients.

Within national security, our firm fixed price contract mix has increased by three percentage points year to date. This shift is creating opportunities to bring more value to our customers and improve profitability over time.
— Kristine Martin Anderson, President and Chief Operating Officer

2. Advanced Technologies Decouple Revenue From Headcount

Traditional government consulting relies heavily on adding staff to grow sales, but new software products in cybersecurity and defense tech allow the business to scale faster without matching headcount growth. Commercial betas, like the Guile counter-superintelligence tool, demonstrate how proprietary technology can generate higher-margin revenue while solving urgent threat management problems for federal clients.

We added over 300 employees in national security this quarter, and we are rapidly building our technologies, and we will be decoupling growth from headcount.
— Kristine Martin Anderson, President and Chief Operating Officer

3. National Security Backlog Offsets Civil Segment Weakness

A 20% expansion in the qualified national security pipeline reflects strong demand for defense capabilities, giving management visibility into revenue acceleration for the second half of the fiscal year. That defense momentum helps cushion temporary headwinds in the civil government portfolio, where customer procurement decisions and contract awards have faced scheduling delays.

We have significant backlog of funded work to execute on, and have aggressively scaled up our hiring. We continue to see strong demand signals across the portfolio, with our qualified pipeline and national security up more than 20% year over year compared to this time last year. Our civil business declined 15% year over year, slightly better than we guided to last quarter.
— Troy J. Lahr, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Looking Ahead

Operational momentum across defense and cybersecurity programs is building as customer demand accelerates for mission-critical technology solutions. The company relies on its deep technical domain expertise and established customer relationships, while watching contract conversion rates and award timing across civil agencies.

On the whole, we remain on track with the expectations we laid out for the fiscal year. Heading into the second half of the year, our three operating priorities are delivering excellent outcomes for our customers, driving strong business execution, and transforming and investing for growth.
— Kristine Martin Anderson, President and Chief Operating Officer

By embedding artificial intelligence and reusable software into core offerings, the company positions itself to capture higher-margin opportunities across federal end markets.

Certainly, as we are planning the business, as we are executing the business, our goal is to expand margins for the foreseeable future.
— Horacio D. Rozanski, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Booz Allen Hamilton. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rate-wait fades, Gen Z veterans are ready to buy now: survey


  • Key Insight: How young veterans are altering their homebuying timelines in a high-rate environment.
  • Supporting Data: Only 32% of prospective homebuyers would wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying a home.

Fewer prospective homebuyers are holding out for lower mortgage rates, and young veterans are leading the shift to buying now, according to a new survey from Veterans United Home Loans.
Only 32% of prospective buyers said they would wait for rates to fall before purchasing, down seven percentage points from a year ago. Among Gen Z veterans and service members, 23% plan to buy within the next three months, more than three times the 7% of Gen Z civilians who said the same. That gives Department of Veterans Affairs lenders a ready pool of near-term borrowers.

Processing Content

More than half of prospective homebuyers overall expect mortgage rates to be higher within the next year, up 12 percentage points from a year ago, according to Veterans United Home Loans third quarter survey. Meanwhile, only 32% would wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying a home, down seven percentage points year over year.

Nearly 75% of respondents said they plan to purchase within the next year as well.

“Buyers aren’t expecting a perfect market,” said Chris Birk, vice president of mortgage insight at Veterans United, in a press release Thursday. “More of them appear willing to make a move without waiting for rates or prices to fall. They’re adjusting their expectations to the market that’s in front of them.”

The survey also revealed an opportunity particularly for Department of Veterans Affairs lenders. Among Gen Z veterans and service members, 60% said buying a home feels within reach, compared with 44% of their civilian counterparts. Gen Z military respondents are closer to buying as well, with 23% planning to purchase within the next three months, compared to 7% of civilians.

Among all veterans and service members surveyed, 82% said VA home loans give them an advantage in a tough market.

“For qualified veterans and service members, benefits like no down payment and no private mortgage insurance can provide more flexibility when it’s time to buy,” Birk said. “And in today’s market, increased inventory and greater opportunities to negotiate seller concessions are giving veterans something many haven’t had in recent years – more options, negotiating power and a better chance at finding the home they’ve always wanted.”

Additionally, fewer prospective buyers said improved market conditions would motivate them to act. Just 43% cited lower interest rates as a reason to move forward, down six percentage points, while reduced home prices dropped from 51% to 47% and more housing inventory decreased four percentage points to 25% in the third quarter, according to the report.

Veterans and service members expressed less patience in waiting on home prices to move, as 32% would consider it, down from 39% in the second quarter. Civilians showed the larger drop in citing lower interest rates as a reason, from 48% to 39%, the survey found.

The report aligns with how Americans feel about the upcoming midterm elections. Nearly two-thirds doubt they will improve the housing market, signaling lenders should make a push for business now.



I Used to Ask Who Dropped the Ball. Now I Ask 4 Questions First.


Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

Key Takeaways

  • After a mistake, write the conditions that led to that mistake before you write the name of the person who made it. Leaders control more of the context than anyone else, so they own a share of the failure environment even when they did not make the last move.
  • Upward accountability does not erase individual agency. Someone still made a choice, so you should still hold them accountable.
  • The principle: The leader’s first job after failure is to make truth safe enough to surface.

The first time a deadline slipped hard on my watch as a founder, I scanned the room for a name. Who dropped it? Who missed the handoff? Who should have flagged it sooner? The quiet that followed was the real signal. People were deciding how much of the truth was still safe to bring to me.

I remember that quiet more than the missed date.

Here’s my situation, so you know where I’m coming from. I run an SBA lender and certified community development financial institution, and I teach entrepreneurial leadership at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business. Across those chairs I keep watching the same move: When something breaks, attention rushes to the person closest to the break. The conditions that made the break likely stay unnamed.

Most owners treat accountability as something that flows down the org chart. That direction is backward. Accountability is credible only when responsibility gets heavier as authority rises. A shop that disciplines frontline mistakes while insulating senior judgment is transferring risk, not demanding excellence. Gallup finds that managers account for at least 70% of the variance in team engagement, and only 20% of employees worldwide were engaged in 2025. The layer that shapes what people will say out loud is the layer that owns the conditions.

I used to treat the hunt for a name as leadership. Wrong move. Finding a person can be necessary. Starting there trains everyone else to edit the story before it reaches you.

We are living through a stretch of institutional stress that Neil Howe and others call a Fourth Turning: a period when trust in systems thins and character under pressure matters more than the playbook. In that climate, the posture I call Washington Mode is useful here: Restraining. Carry the power you hold without using it to shove risk onto people with less of it.

Own the conditions you designed first

After a miss, write the conditions before you write the name. What priorities did you set? What staffing did you approve? What incentives did you leave in place? What information never reached the person who had to act? Those are your levers. Leaders control more of the context than anyone else in the building, so they own a share of the failure environment even when they did not make the last move.

The principle fits in one line: Accountability is an information system before it is a verdict.

Try the same sequence this week. The next time something breaks, open with four questions you ask yourself out loud: What did I prioritize? Whom did I leave underpowered? What did we reward? What signals got ignored? A restaurant owner might find the late delivery was preceded by a schedule that never left room for receiving. A SaaS founder might find the outage followed a release rule everyone knew was theater. Name the conditions while the room is still listening.

Separate the person from the system, in that order

Upward accountability does not erase individual agency. Someone still made a choice. The test is sequence. First, ask what the system and the leader made possible, rewarded or ignored. Then judge the individual act. Reverse the order, and people learn that candor is expensive.

The principle: Own the environment first, then hold the person.

Say the split plainly in the room. “Here is what I set up that made this more likely. Here is the decision that still belongs to you.” A franchisee can do that after a bad weekend shift. A clinic owner can do it after a billing miss. A fabricator can do it after a scrap spike. The split keeps dignity intact and still draws a line. Skip it and you get either scapegoats or vagueness. Neither builds a team that can run without your mood as the weather system.

Make the next hard truth cheaper to deliver than to hide

The point of owning upward is not theater. It is to lower the personal cost of telling the truth the next time. When leaders absorb the share of failure they actually own, weak signals travel earlier. When they externalize blame, reporting becomes dangerous and the institution learns to hide. Trust compounds from evidence. A single clean ownership move after a miss is one of the densest deposits you can make.

The principle: The leader’s first job after failure is to make truth safe enough to surface.

Build the habit on a schedule, not only in crisis. After every meaningful miss, run a 10-minute debrief with the people who were closest to the work. You speak first about the conditions. They speak second about the choices. You close with one change to the system and one clear expectation for the person. Keep one annoyance unresolved on purpose if the room still feels too careful. Carefulness is data.

Here’s where I’d start this week: Pick the last miss that still bothers you. Write four lines on the conditions you created. Write one line on the choice that still belongs to someone else. Say both lines to that person before Friday. Then ask what they edited out of the story the first time. Watch whether the next hard truth arrives sooner.

The quiet in that early room was never really about a deadline. It was about whether the truth still had somewhere safe to land. Build that landing before the next miss arrives.

Key Takeaways

  • After a mistake, write the conditions that led to that mistake before you write the name of the person who made it. Leaders control more of the context than anyone else, so they own a share of the failure environment even when they did not make the last move.
  • Upward accountability does not erase individual agency. Someone still made a choice, so you should still hold them accountable.
  • The principle: The leader’s first job after failure is to make truth safe enough to surface.

The first time a deadline slipped hard on my watch as a founder, I scanned the room for a name. Who dropped it? Who missed the handoff? Who should have flagged it sooner? The quiet that followed was the real signal. People were deciding how much of the truth was still safe to bring to me.

I remember that quiet more than the missed date.

Here’s my situation, so you know where I’m coming from. I run an SBA lender and certified community development financial institution, and I teach entrepreneurial leadership at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business. Across those chairs I keep watching the same move: When something breaks, attention rushes to the person closest to the break. The conditions that made the break likely stay unnamed.

If You Don't Understand Bonds, You Don't Understand Money



Everyone watches the stock market — but the bond market is larger, more nuanced, and absolutely crucial to the economy.

I’ll explain what the bond market is, how it works, and why understanding bonds is important if you want to understand inflation, interest rates, recessions, and also the price of assets like real estate, stocks, and crypto.

I’ll cover what a bond is, what yields are and how they work, and why this market is so important to banks, governments and investors.

🔔 Subscribe for more finance and economics content: @LockStockFinance

00:00 – The Bond Market
00:24 – What is a Bond?
00:56 – Government Borrowing
01:30 – Tax Revenues
02:15 – Who Buys Bonds?
03:05 – Useful Terms
03:33 – Yields
04:25 – Primary and Secondary Market
06:08 – Rolling Over the Debt
06:48 – Effect on the Stock Market

#money #financialfreedom #investing #stocks #stockmarket #wealth #passiveincome #trading #bonds #makemoneyonline #economy #economics

source

BASIC Act Would Send $1 Billion A Year To Colleges For Student Food, Housing, And Childcare


Key Points

  • The BASIC Act would authorize $1 billion a year from fiscal 2027 through 2033 for colleges to address students’ food, housing, childcare, health care, transportation, and technology needs.
  • Colleges could get planning grants of up to $200,000 and five-year implementation grants of up to $5 million, with priority for schools where at least 25% of students receive Pell Grants.
  • The bill would also let FAFSA filers share their aid data with benefit agencies so students are screened for SNAP, Medicaid, and other programs, but it has no Republican cosponsors.

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Rep. Norma Torres (D-CA) introduced the Basic Assistance for Students in College Act, known as the BASIC Act, on September 24, 2026. The Senate bill, S. 5559, and the House companion, H.R. 10612, would create a federal grant program to help colleges cover the costs that sit outside tuition. Those costs often make up most of a student’s budget, as our breakdown of what room and board covers shows.

“No student should have to choose between meeting their everyday needs and pursuing higher education,” Padilla said in his announcement. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) co-leads the Senate bill, and 15 House Democrats signed on to Torres’s version.

Endorsers include the American Council on Education, the University of California, and The Hope Center, which tracks the non-tuition costs that derail students.

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Why It Matters

Basic needs gaps are common on campus. A 2024 GAO report found about 3.8 million college students, or 23%, were food insecure in 2020, based on federal survey data. Fewer than 2 in 5 of those students were potentially eligible for SNAP, and 59% of the eligible group didn’t receive benefits.

Students can use federal student loans to pay for housing, but that turns rent and groceries into debt. The Hope Center’s latest survey of 74,350 students found 59% faced basic needs insecurity, and 48% faced housing insecurity.

Free tuition doesn’t solve the problem. Brookings estimates students at tuition-free schools still face $20,000 to $25,000 a year in other costs. When aid falls short, students cut meals, take on more work hours, or borrow, and many end up searching for options after they run out of financial aid mid-year.

How The Grants Would Work

The bill text creates two kinds of grants under a new section of the Higher Education Act. Any college eligible for federal student aid could apply, the same schools students list on the 2027-28 FAFSA:

  • Planning grants: Up to $200,000 for up to two years, to form a basic needs committee, study unmet needs, and build a campus strategy. These would total $40 million a year.
  • Implementation grants: Up to $5 million per five-year period, totaling $960 million a year. Colleges must show an ongoing non-federal funding source and carry out at least two eligible activities.
  • Eligible activities: Free or subsidized food, housing, or sleeping space, priority childcare, benefits application help and case management, coordination with SNAP and housing agencies, transportation, equipment, and staff.
  • Priority and set-asides: Colleges where at least 25% of students are Pell-eligible get priority. At least 25% of funds go to community colleges, and at least 25% go to HBCUs, Tribal Colleges, and other minority-serving institutions.

The 2024 version capped planning grants at $75,000 and implementation grants at $1 million, so this version raises both limits. Larger awards matter most at schools where the gap between financial aid and the full cost is widest.

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BASIC Act Grants For Colleges
Grant Type Planning Grant Implementation Grant
Maximum Award $200,000 $5 million
Length Up to 2 years 5-year period
Annual Funding $40 million $960 million
Purpose Study needs, build a campus strategy Food, housing, childcare, benefits help, transportation
Match Required No Ongoing non-federal funding source
Authorized for fiscal 2027-2033. Source: S. 5559. The College Investor.

How Would The FAFSA Change?

The bill would turn the FAFSA into a screening tool for public benefits. Applicants could let the Education Department share their Student Aid Index and Pell Grant status with agencies that run SNAP, Medicaid, WIC, TANF, housing assistance, and childcare subsidies. The department would then send eligible students information about those programs.

The bill bars use of the shared data for other purposes, including criminal or civil investigations.

The bill doesn’t change who qualifies for SNAP. College students enrolled at least half time still need an exemption, such as working 20 hours a week, receiving work-study, or caring for a young child. Student parents would gain the most from outreach, since childcare costs often rival tuition, a cost some families offset with a dependent care FSA.

What Would Students Actually See?

Students wouldn’t apply for BASIC Act money themselves. The grants go to colleges, which would spend them on services such as campus food pantries, emergency housing, childcare slots, transit passes, and staff who help students apply for benefits. The help would show up as lower out-of-pocket costs or faster access to programs students already qualify for, not as a new grant next to a student’s Pell Grant on the aid offer.

Students facing housing loss have another tool today. The FAFSA asks whether a student is an unaccompanied youth who is homeless or at risk of homelessness, and a yes can qualify the student as independent for aid purposes. Independent status often raises Pell eligibility, and our walkthrough of the FAFSA’s student personal circumstances questions covers how to answer it.

How This Connects

A smaller version of this program already exists. The Education Department’s Basic Needs for Postsecondary Students Program awarded about $9.9 million in 2026, with Michigan’s education agency receiving nearly $5 million of it.

The BASIC Act would scale that effort roughly 100-fold. Families planning ahead should still budget for housing and food separately, using our numbers on how to pay for college housing.

What’s Next

S. 5559 went to the Senate HELP Committee, and the House bill is expected to go to the Education and Workforce Committee. Earlier versions in 2021 and 2024 never advanced past committee referral.

This version also has no Republican cosponsors, and the 119th Congress ends January 3, 2027. The better path to watch is annual appropriations for the existing basic needs program. Students who need help now should contact their financial aid office about options when financial aid doesn’t cover the full cost.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post BASIC Act Would Send $1 Billion A Year To Colleges For Student Food, Housing, And Childcare appeared first on The College Investor.

[In Store Too] Costco.com Selling Again Uber & DoorDash eGiftcards with 20% Discount


Update 10/25/26: Most stores seem to be stocking these again as well. 

Original Post 9/14/26:

Costco.com is once again selling Uber e-gift cards and DoorDash e-gift cards at a 20% discount. You can buy online up to $200 worth of each every 14 days. Presumably, the same deal is available at Costco clubs as well.

Uber link | DoorDash link

For years, Costco was a consistent source to buy Uber at Costco gift cards at 20% off. (Occasionally they’ve even run a 25% discount special.) Many months ago they stopped carrying these gift cards, and rumors said the partnership had ended. 

And so it’s nice to see this back on. I’d guess they worked out a deal to renew the partnership for the long term.

Update: In this UberEATS press release they mention the partnership to offer gift cards at 20% discount. Note, they do peg this as a “limited time” deal. 

Hat tip to readers ieatdogfood and David

Emotionally Intelligent People Use 2 Brilliant Phrases to Build Trust and Strengthen Their Relationships



They’re each remarkably simple, but that’s part of what makes them so effective.

Billy Evans’ ‘Theranos 2.0’ startup has patents, investors, and a missing CTO—but no product



Billy Evans has spent the past week as the breakout character of the year’s most talked-about documentary. Now attention is turning to his day job.

Evans, the longtime partner of convicted Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, runs Haemanthus, an Austin-based startup that says it can use lasers to detect disease in blood, saliva, and urine. Interest in the company has surged since A24 released You Can See Everything, Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about the couple, on Oct. 16.

Haemanthus has reportedly raised as much as $20 million and holds at least one granted patent. What it doesn’t have, at least publicly, is a product customers can buy, or published data showing its technology works. It has also lost its chief technology officer.

Set aside the “Theranos 2.0” jokes, and a more basic business question remains: What has Haemanthus actually built?

Who is Billy Evans?

Evans, 34, is a grandson of William and Anne Evans, who founded Evans Hotels in San Diego in 1953. The privately held, family-owned company operates three resorts in Southern California. But in an Oct. 1 statement, Evans Hotels said Billy Evans is neither an employee nor a shareholder.

Evans graduated from MIT in 2015 with a degree in economics. After a stint at LinkedIn, he worked as a special projects manager at Luminar Technologies, a lidar startup building sensors for self-driving cars, from 2017 until January 2019, according to Forbes. His LinkedIn profile has since been scrubbed of every job except Haemanthus. Luminar filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2025, nearly seven years after Evans left.

Evans met Holmes at a party in 2017, when Theranos was already engulfed in scandal. They have two children, William, 5, and Invicta, 3. Evans refers to Holmes as his wife, but Holmes told People that the couple never legally married. “Maybe we’ll get married someday, but our bond is more than a piece of paper,” she said.

How Haemanthus says its technology works

Evans has listed himself as Haemanthus’ CEO since October 2022. According to marketing materials reviewed by The New York Times last year, the company’s device uses a laser to scan biological samples “on a molecular level,” identify biomarkers such as glucose and hormones within seconds, and use AI to detect cancer and infections.

The underlying technique, Raman spectroscopy, is not new. Shining light on a sample and reading the signal that scatters back is a long-established way to identify chemicals. Forensic investigators use handheld Raman devices to identify suspected drugs at crime scenes, and labs can analyze substances through plastic bags or glass without opening them.

Blood is a much harder problem. The molecules researchers want to detect are often present in tiny amounts, so their signals are faint. Other components in blood can produce stronger signals that drown them out, according to a scientific review published in Applied Spectroscopy.

That approach is also what separates Haemanthus from Theranos. Holmes’ company claimed it could run conventional lab tests on a miniaturized machine using a few drops of blood. “Theranos attempted to miniaturize existing tests,” Haemanthus wrote on X in May 2025, describing its own approach as fundamentally different.

A Raman spectroscopy patent assigned to Haemanthus and granted in January 2025 names two inventors, one of them former CTO Joseph LaChapelle, according to Forbes. Several of the startup’s early staffers, including LaChapelle, worked with Evans at Luminar, NPR reported. Eric Potma, a UC Irvine chemistry professor who consults for the company, told WIRED that the concept isn’t pulled out of thin air, though he declined to go into detail because of his advisory role.

A patent, however, does not establish that a test can accurately diagnose patients.

Haemanthus plans to start with veterinary testing before pursuing human applications. That market is far less regulated. The FDA does not require premarket approval for devices intended for animals, though it can take action against misbranded or adulterated products.

How much money has Haemanthus raised?

According to investor materials the Times reviewed last year, Haemanthus initially raised $3.5 million from friends and family. In spring 2025, it began approaching wealthy investors in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area for another $15 million. The materials described an eventual wearable device for humans that would take three years and $70 million to develop. WIRED has since reported that the company has received as much as $20 million.

A person who spoke with Evans this spring told Forbes that Evans said early Palantir employees had invested.

The company has yet to launch a commercial product or disclose independently validated diagnostic results.

A quiet CTO exit

LaChapelle told Forbes he left in March. “I resigned on March 16, 2026, due to a conflict of interest associated with a stealth startup I had founded prior to Haemanthus,” he said, declining to elaborate.

Evans has told it differently. The same person who spoke with Evans this spring told Forbes that Evans said he had let the CTO go. That person also recalled Evans describing the company as “Theranos 2.0,” a label Haemanthus has publicly rejected. Evans did not respond to Forbes’ request for comment.

Is Elizabeth Holmes involved?

Holmes is serving an 11-year sentence for defrauding Theranos investors at a federal prison camp in Bryan, Texas, roughly a two-hour drive from Austin.

In May 2025, NPR reported, citing two sources with direct knowledge, that Holmes had been advising Evans from prison, though the nature of that advice was unclear. Haemanthus denied it on X, saying Holmes had “zero involvement” and “no role, now or future.” WIRED reported that Holmes’ name does not appear in Haemanthus’ incorporation documents.

The documentary muddies that picture. It shows Evans and Holmes on fundraising calls and discussing a medical-testing venture, and Evans tells Fielder, “The idea is to put the band back together and do it all again.” Forbes noted it’s unclear whether those calls were for Haemanthus or another venture. A source close to Evans told New York Magazine that the project in the film was separate from Haemanthus. According to that source, it aimed to make medical testing cheaper without conventional chemical methods and was shelved when a panel of tests still cost several hundred dollars.

Evans has acknowledged the film may backfire. Speaking at the All-In Summit before he had seen the finished cut, he said, “I might think this is like the dumbest thing I’ve ever done.”

A fight over the film’s profits

The documentary reveals that Evans asked for a share of its profits, a request that worried the filmmakers about their independence. Fielder says they reluctantly agreed. A postscript says Evans ultimately decided not to accept payment.

That may not be the end of it. Page Six reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources, that Evans has been seeking Hollywood legal representation over a possible cut. One prominent litigator reportedly declined to take the case, and a source said Evans might donate any proceeds to charity.

The film has put Holmes back in the spotlight. Theranos whistleblower Tyler Shultz and Bad Blood author John Carreyrou have both weighed in, and Fortune has questioned whether her new persona distracts from the real story. It has also drawn far more scrutiny to Evans and Haemanthus. The company has yet to publicly show that its technology can reliably detect disease. It also remains unclear when its veterinary device will reach the market, or how close its larger ambitions are to reality.

Economist finds reasons for cautious optimism with rates in the 7s


“Even in a really tough market, we’re still getting 4 million annualized sales,” Kushi said. “I think that’s the life events we’re talking about. Even in a tough market, an affordability- and inventory-constrained market, you’re still seeing this sort of lower bound of 4 million sales. And that’s not nothing.”

Home prices are adjusting city by city. Some once-hot metros have slipped while others keep climbing.

“It’s not a house price crash, right? It’s been a gradual decline,” she said. “We’ve seen in places like Dallas, there’s been year-over-year price declines. A lot of the formerly pandemic darling markets are now seeing some house price moderation or declines. But then in Chicago, a top-performing market, 5 to 6% house price growth. But those price declines do help to bring affordability into better balance, even with higher or elevated rates.”

What could change

Kushi said volatility is very challenging for the market right now. Some of the jumps in mortgage rates over the past several weeks have been especially large compared with the last couple of years.

“You get the folks that say, ‘Well, mortgage rates are actually at historical averages,’ which is true,” she said. “A rate from 7.5% to 8% is the pre-pandemic historical average for the 30-year fixed rate, but it’s not the level, right? It’s the change. So the change we had in 2022 was very rapid, and nowadays it’s the rate lock-in effect and whether it gets worse or it gets better, right? But I think what we’re all looking for is stability and predictability, so that buyers and sellers can plan.”