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Surging gas prices mask weak consumer spending in Canada




Canadian retail sales continued to rise last month after a solid first quarter, but skyrocketing gasoline prices appear to be increasingly eating into household budgets.

What Happens if You Work After Reaching Full Retirement Age?


An estimated 55% of Americans don’t feel prepared for retirement. That may be one of the reasons so many older individuals have chosen to remain in the workforce. Whether they work for someone else or run their own business, staying on the job longer has its perks.

For most Americans, full retirement age (FRA) is around 67, and that’s the point at which you’ve earned full Social Security benefits. As long as you still have the physical, mental, and emotional stamina to stay on the job, here are some of the advantages of working beyond your FRA.

Image source: Getty Images.

No earnings limit

The earliest you can claim Social Security benefits is age 62. While it works out for many people, it’s important to remember that making a claim that early permanently reduces your monthly benefits by 30%.

In addition, if you continue to work between 62 and FRA, there’s a limit on how much you can earn before the Social Security Administration (SSA) begins withholding part of your Social Security checks. While you’ll get that money back once you reach FRA, not having access to it when it’s earned can be a hassle.

Continuing to work once you’ve reached FRA means you can earn as much as you’d like without anything being withheld from your checks.

Additional benefits

Consider just a few of the benefits associated with working past FRA:

  • You have extra income to help offset inflation’s impact on your budget.
  • Whether you work for a company that offers an employer-sponsored retirement plan or you’re self-employed and have a solo 401(k), remaining on the job gives you more time to build your retirement account.
  • There’s increasing evidence that working past FRA can help you maintain better health and even live longer. A 2016 study found that working even one year beyond retirement age is associated with a 9% to 11% lower risk of dying during the 18-year study.

Time to reconsider

Let’s say you’re 67 and claim Social Security. As you continue to work, you realize that you could get by without your Social Security benefits. As long as it’s been less than 12 months since you became eligible to claim them, you can request that the SSA suspend your benefits until a later time.

While you’ll have to pay back the money you’ve received up to that point, it may be worth it for you. That’s because once your benefits stop, you start earning delayed retirement credits. When benefits automatically restart at age 70 (or earlier, if you decide to restart them), you’ll find yourself with a monthly Social Security check that’s higher than the one you received at age 67. In fact, if you wait until age 70, your benefits will be roughly 24% higher.

Not everyone wants to work past FRA, but if remaining in the workforce sounds good to you, it’s nice to recognize the ways it can be beneficial.

How to Know When Your Business Is Ready to Scale


Catch the Full Episode

Overview

Scaling too fast kills companies. So does scaling too slow. But most business owners never stop to ask whether they have actually earned the right to scale at all. In this episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast, John Jantsch sits down with Mark Roberge, co-founder of Stage 2 Capital, founding CRO of HubSpot, and author of The Science of Scaling, to unpack one of the most misunderstood decisions in business growth.

Mark helped take HubSpot from zero to IPO, then spent years at Harvard Business School teaching founders why so many fast-growing companies implode. His framework asks a different question: instead of “how fast can we grow,” ask “have we proven we deserve to grow?” The answer requires evidence, not instinct, and not pressure from investors.

This episode is for small business owners, agency owners, and entrepreneurs who are thinking about adding headcount, launching new channels, or entering a new stage of growth. If you want to scale without destroying what you built, this conversation is your roadmap.

Guest Bio

Mark Roberge is the co-founder of Stage 2 Capital and the founding Chief Revenue Officer at HubSpot, where he grew the company from zero to IPO. He later joined Harvard Business School as a senior lecturer, teaching founders and operators how to scale with discipline. He is the author of The Sales Acceleration Formula and The Science of Scaling, and has spent the past decade as an investor, board member, and advisor helping companies navigate the gap between early traction and sustainable growth.

Key Takeaways

  • Product-market fit is not a revenue number. It is a retention metric. If customers are not staying and using your product, you do not have it yet, regardless of how many you have signed.
  • Go-to-market fit is the second gate before scaling. It is measured by unit economics, specifically whether you can acquire and serve customers profitably.
  • Scaling revenue too fast is a structural problem, not a motivation problem. Hiring 27 reps when you only have one requires 270 qualified interview screens, management infrastructure, and demand generation that most companies simply do not have.
  • Build a monthly hiring pace instead of a January 2nd headcount dump. Steady, intentional growth gives you time to build the systems that support each new hire.
  • The CRM funnel should not end at closed-won. Retention, engagement, and expansion are stages, not afterthoughts. The Marketing Hourglass is the right model.
  • Leading indicators of retention can be defined simply. Slack tracked whether 80% of customers sent 2,000 team messages per month. You do not need a data science team to build a version of this for your business.
  • A feature is not a moat. If a competitor can replicate your advantage in six months, it is not long-term defensibility. Founders need a vision for what makes them unbeatable over time.
  • The ability to up-level the executive team around you as the company grows is one of the strongest predictors of a successful exit. It is also one of the hardest skills to develop.
  • Sometimes the business outgrows the founder. The COO or president model is not failure. It is graduation. The reframe: someone else does the work you hate so you can focus on the work you love.
  • AI is accelerating faster than society can adapt. Mark is donating book proceeds to McLean Hospital for mental health research, because the people building this technology have a responsibility to help manage its consequences.

Great Moments (Timestamps)

[00:02] — The opening question that reframes every growth decision: are you betting on a business that is not prepared to win?

[04:04] — Mark defines what it actually means to earn the right to scale, and why most founders get this wrong from the start

[06:25] — The two-step framework: product-market fit and go-to-market fit explained clearly

[09:51] — Half scale too fast, half too slow. Mark explains the Groupon and WeWork examples as two failure modes

[11:40] — How to measure product-market fit without a data science team, using Slack and HubSpot as real examples

[13:29] — John and Mark align on why retention and advocacy belong inside the customer journey, not outside it

[16:31] — Why a feature is not a moat, and what long-term defensibility actually requires

[17:43] — The London School of Economics study on what predicts a strong startup exit (the answer will surprise most founders)

[20:33] — The mental health connection: Mark shares why he is donating proceeds to McLean Hospital and what the AI era demands of technologists

Memorable Quotes

“The decision on when to scale is usually when someone hands you a fat check, which doesn’t sound that strategic.” — Mark Roberge

“Do not let the dashboards and sales funnels in your CRM end at closed-won. That is literally step four of seven.” — Mark Roberge

“A feature is not long-term defensibility. If your competitor can build it in six months, you don’t have a moat.” — Mark Roberge

“We’re basically offering to pay for someone to do all the work you hate so you can do the work you love.” — Mark Roberge on helping founders let go

“We as technicians need to diversify our efforts away from just building and profiting toward helping society adapt to this new world.” — Mark Roberge

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Buy a $500K/Year Income Stream? This Is How to Do It


What if, today, you could “buy” a $500K/year income stream? You could replace your salary. You could become the boss immediately and reach financial freedom faster. It’s not a gimmick, it’s not a scheme, it’s something much more boring than that.

In this episode, we’re talking about how to buy a business, especially small businesses, with Acquiring MindsWill Smith. Will spends his days interviewing the overlooked, but highly profitable, business owners who do exactly what we’re talking about today—find a boring business, buy it, improve it, profit, and repeat. Even the small businesses Will mentions can earn their owners hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.

So, how do you get in on it? Will breaks down who should buy one of these businesses, where to find businesses for sale, how much they sell for, the returns you can expect, and the best business types to buy.

Dave is heavily considering buying a business to complement his real estate portfolio. And after this episode, you’ll probably be feeling the same.

Dave:
What if today you could buy a $500,000 per year income stream? You could replace your salary, you could become the boss immediately and you could reach financial freedom faster. You’re probably thinking to yourself right now, Dave, that sounds impossible, but today’s guest proves that the average American, yeah, even you hearing this right now can get in on the action. It is not a gimmick. It is not a scheme. It’s actually kind of boring and it’s transparent and it’s something I’m actually considering doing myself very soon. It’s buying a small business. If you own or want to own rental properties, our industry is actually kind of similar to buying small businesses. In our industry, you buy a property, you get it rented, you run it well, profit and repeat, similar with small businesses. But these small businesses are sort of like rental properties on steroids, at least in terms of how much cashflow they can generate.
And just like rentals, you don’t actually need to put in all the cash upfront to buy them. Buying just one of these businesses could actually replace your salary and today we’re showing you exactly how to do it.
What’s up everyone? I’m Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets. Today we’re talking about buying small businesses with Will Smith, host of the Acquiring Minds Podcast. Of course, you’re probably thinking that it’s true, this is a real estate podcast. I myself am a real estate investor, but buying small businesses has emerged as a popular alternative, or I would argue as a popular compliment to real estate investing in recent years. So I wanted to have this conversation with Will and share it with all of you. Let’s bring him on. Will, thanks for joining the BiggerPockets Podcast. We’re excited to have you here.

Will:
Dave, thrilled to be here, know the podcast, have known it for years. So it’s really exciting for me.

Dave:
Well, let’s just start by hearing a little bit about your background and how you first got into the world of investing, personal finance, wealth building, all that.

Will:
So I’ve pretty much for my whole career been an entrepreneur of some kind, mostly doing my own businesses for the first few chapters of my career and then my most recent and probably final W-2. I was living in the Bay Area and working for a couple of startups, but had that entrepreneurial itch that just never seems to go away with me, but didn’t at that time have a business idea that I wanted to run after. So I had the energy but not the idea. And that was when I discovered the possibility of buying an existing business, which is what we’re here to talk about. And I can kind of give the origin story of acquiring mines in a minute, but I guess to answer your question directly have always been entrepreneurial, have always been interested in ways to build businesses and as a consequence of that, build wealth.

Dave:
So Will, tell us what is ETA?

Will:
ETA, entrepreneurship through acquisition, also known sometimes as search or search funds you might have heard of, is the idea of becoming an entrepreneur or business owner by buying an existing business as opposed to starting one from scratch. There is a lot of excitement around this path in the last 20, but especially in the last five years. Business schools are teaching this. A lot of people are coming from tech or finance and wanting to get out of those industries and become entrepreneurs and this is a path to do it. They’re demographic trends of a lot of retiring 60 and 70 somethings whose businesses need new ownership. So there’s a lot of trends that are contributing to this, not to mention the model itself is really compelling. So you can buy a small business with leverage with an SBA loan in the US, but there are also ways to do it with leverage in other markets, non-US markets.
So you don’t have to stroke a check and buy the entire thing. Like in real estate, you have a down payment of 10, 20% and can buy a multimillion dollar business and even for that 10 or 20%, you can raise investor equity to help you get there. So the economics are really compelling as well as a number of other trends that are sort of converging to make this a really exciting path. And then people like me and many other podcasts talking about it all the time. So raising the awareness of it as well.

Dave:
What made you feel like you could do it, Will? Because I wanted to be entrepreneurial too when I was first out of college trying to figure it out. It never crossed my mind that I could buy a business. And I think a lot of people feel that way about real estate too. They don’t realize that there are ways to get into real estate that don’t require as much money as you might think. My assumption was that small business was the same way. So were you coming from a place where you had a lot of cash or what made you feel like you could do this? Because to me at least, it feels daunting.

Will:
I didn’t have a lot of cash. I didn’t have no cash. With the SBA loan possibility, essentially 10% of a business’s enterprise value or total project cost, as they call it, is roughly what you’d need to bring.
And for certain size businesses that would be interesting enough to pursue, I could afford that. And then I also learned that you can, even for that 10% that equity, if you have a good deal and you know there are people in the ecosystem, investors in the ecosystem, usually individuals who will help you with that or will invest in your project. So I saw pretty early on that there was a way to make this work for myself. Now it was unlikely to be a very large business. I wasn’t going to be acquiring a $20 million business, but certainly something interesting enough, like as I said, to pursue.

Dave:
What is it that attracted you? Like you said, you didn’t have an idea, but there are other ways to be an entrepreneur, real estate being an example. What made you so enthusiastic about this?

Will:
I had spent a lot of time at that time of my life and frankly, really my whole career kind of ideating what is a new thing that the world needs
And spending time in communities where they spend a lot … There’s like the indie hackers world. This is kind of another niche of entrepreneurship where primarily tech oriented people are trying to come up with the next SaaS idea. And I had done a lot of that and spent a lot of energy doing that. And I don’t think that having a completely novel or a novel idea at all is that important to me. I just want to be building a business. And I think I had gotten too caught up in coming up with some new thing. You don’t need to do that. And I don’t even think that that’s like a bad thing or I was giving up on coming up with a new idea. In fact, the more I really thought deeply about this and really connected with people about this, the idea that you would launch something brand new is not even very wise.
Many of the most successful businesses, the market demand has already been demonstrated. So go where there are existing businesses that have already proven that there’s demand there for whatever the product or service is. So this was a path to entrepreneurship that got around that thing that was a big sticking point for me. The sense of possibility was completely wider than actually coming up with a brand new idea on my own.

Dave:
I mean, that resonates with me, you’re making me think. So before I started working at BiggerPockets, a couple careers ago I had started a tech company as well and I went to this mentor to get some information and I asked him to sign an NDA and he was like, “I’m not going to sign an NDA.” And I was like, “Why? I got to protect my idea.” And he was like, “If I could do your business better than you, then you don’t have a good business. Ideas are stupid. Execution is the only thing that matters.” And I remember just being so dejected by that, just being like, “I thought I had this amazing idea.” And he was like, “I don’t care at all about what your idea is. All that matters is like, can you run a business successfully?” And it definitely changed my perspective. And it is something I’ve personally grown an interest in ETA myself and it’s something I think about a lot, not having to focus on reinventing the wheel, inventing something new.
That’s the same thing I love about real estate, right? It’s like it’s a business model that’s proven. I don’t have to think about that. I just have to think about things that are in my control, how to execute and operate.

Will:
And just in case anybody’s hearing this and thinks, well, the creativity aspect of entrepreneurship, I guess that’s not what ETA is about because we keep talking about how it’s not doing your own idea or a new idea. And I just don’t want people to leave with that impression because sure, the thing the product or service that’s being sold may not be novel, but within a business it’s an animal, it’s its own ecosystem and there’s just constant opportunities for creativity and imagination within a business or within an industry that already exists that you get into. So I love creativity and I still see business absolutely as an outlet for that. So I just don’t want people to think that we’ve foreclosed the opportunity to be creative by going down this path, not at all. So

Dave:
Will, you clearly became interested in this. What happened next? You go out and buy your first business?

Will:
So I love at first sight and I decide, okay, this is the way, this is the path I’m going to pursue. My own entrepreneurial track record had been in building niche media, what I call authority media. And so as I looked around this space, the ETA space, it didn’t seem like there was what I like to call the authoritative voice of ETA. This path, it was so exciting to me, this niche of entrepreneurship that was clearly if I was having this reaction, other people were going to be similarly interested in doing this. And I already saw that people were doing it. As I said, business schools were teaching it, people were doing this. So I thought I could build some sort of media something here, try to become the authoritative voice of this space because I’m going to be studying it on my own anyway, trying to meet people, get stories, understand their learnings.
I’m going to be going through all those motions anyway. Why not capture that into some sort of media something? Interesting. And maybe that becomes something. Maybe that becomes something or it doesn’t, but I probably will have raised my own profile in the space. Maybe that will help me buy a business better or raise investor capital or whatever. So I didn’t see that that could hurt. I saw that it could only help and maybe even become its own business. And ultimately the media format I ended on, decided on was a podcast. And so I thought, I’m going to go heads down on this podcast for a year and then evaluate. And happily over the course of that year, year and a half, it really grew and there was a lot of market feedback that people were listening, that sponsors were interested. I was loving it and to this day, I love it.
So it was just having come off of this period in my life where I’d been looking for some idea to launch into the world and how challenging that was all of a sudden I had launched an idea into the world and the world was reacting positively. So I said, “This deserves all of my attention.” And probably around episode, I think it was episode 200, I said to myself and publicly, I was like, “I no longer am even going to consider myself what we call a searcher, somebody who’s out there

Dave:
Trying to

Will:
Buy a business.” I’m going full-time 110% on acquiring mines and I’m just going to have to live with the tension that I’m the guy who talks about this all day long but never actually does it. And it’s been okay. Nobody cares.

Dave:
Well, it’s so funny. I’m sure the irony is not lost on you that you wanted to get into search because you didn’t have an idea for a business, but just the idea of search gave you an idea for a business that you went out and started and didn’t actually wind up completing your search. Pretty funny. But good for you. It’s awesome that you’ve built this business. So Will, I want to talk to you about the basics. Let’s help our audience here understand if they want to pursue the great returns, the entrepreneurship, the freedom that search and ETA can really provide what they need to do, who’s good for it. We’ll get to that right after this quick break. We’ll be right back Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m here with Will Smith talking about ETA or entrepreneurship through acquisition. It’s the idea of going out and buying a small business and using it to pursue financial freedom much in the way that you can through real estate investing.
Will, maybe give us some of the basics. What does it actually mean to go out and buy a business and maybe tell us a little bit of the steps that someone needs to take?

Will:
Sure. And let me just say, Dave, because I heard you mention the returns and that is something that draws a lot of people here, especially if they come from sort of an investor first mentality. We speak in multiples in small business land, multiples on earnings as opposed to cap rates like you do in real estate. And the multiples here are at first glance very low, call it three or 4X. So if you buy a business that’s generating $750,000 of earnings, let’s call it, that might sell for 2,250,000. Okay. Well, that’s incredible. That’s a 25% to 33% return on unlevered cash. And let’s not forget we’re using leverage in these. We’re using SBA debt or conventional debt to buy these.

Dave:
Will, can I just explain that to our audience just quickly? So in real estate, if you were to go out and buy a commercial multifamily property, I’m going to use round numbers at a 5% cap rate. That’s essentially meaning you are paying 20 times the net operating income for that business. So for every dollar of income, NOI, you’re paying $20. What the business’s Will is talking about for every dollar of income, you might be paying $4. You might be paying $5. You might be paying $3 actually on some of these deals. So the value that you get for every dollar that you invest in it in terms of cash flow that you can generate is really high. The efficiency that you can generate cash in these businesses is really exceptional. I don’t know any other way to do that, Will, do you?

Will:
No, and it is exceptional. Now caveat, caveat, caveat. Right.

Dave:
It’s hard.

Will:
It’s hard. And unless you really know what you’re doing, I just kind of have a blanket policy that you should expect you, listener, entrepreneur, that you’re going to get in and run this business. This is going to become your job, your career. So unlike real estate where you can start building a portfolio on the side, it’s a lot of work, but it’s passive, semi-passive.
This is the absolute polar opposite of that. This is highly active. And not only is it active 40, 50, 60 hours a week, it’s also really hard. What this looks like is you’re buying a business from probably a retiring boomer of an HVAC business who himself was an HVAC technician, came up through the trade, built a crew around himself, then another crew, then another crew. And by the time he was 70, he had a business doing $4 million a year and $750,000 of earnings. All of his people know him as the leader. He is the business. It’s held together through his willpower and the respect of his technicians because he knows what he’s doing. And then you come 20 and 30 years younger, not ever having turned a wrench and saying, “Hey guys, I’m your new boss and owner of this business.” So the dynamics are interesting and delicate and that’s what we talk about on the podcast on Acquiring Minds is all of these stories and how people do this and pull this off and there’s pitfalls everywhere and risk everywhere.
Now, I feel like I’m being just negative. I always put that out there first because this path can be oversold.

Dave:
No, that’s super helpful. Yeah, because you hear these amazing returns and you’re like- Yes, exactly. And I see this too on the internet, people are like, “Oh, it’s passive.” But you’re saying the opposite. It is not. This is hard and it’s difficult. So then how do you succeed? Who is the right person to go out and buy a business?

Will:
You need to be drawn to this path by much, much more than the returns. You need to want to live the life of a small business owner at least for a few years. Now I’m not saying you have to run the small business that you buy as the owner-operator from now until you retire, but there are a lot of people who try to accelerate through that part too quickly and it’s extremely dangerous. You need to know that you’re signing up to be a small business owner for a number of years and all that entails. And I’m happy to go more into that, but I think I just started to paint a picture. It’s a very particular lifestyle and a very particular path. So first things first, you got to be willing and more than willing, you got to be excited to do that because it’s going to try you.
It’s really hard. But if you’re excited by that or like the prospect of that, then this is a very exciting opportunity because I mean, you got into the business as an acquirer. So you’ve built this skill of business acquisition, which many boomers don’t have because they built the business from scratch. So you have this a whole other skillset of being able to buy businesses so you can start buying others adjacent locally or in adjacent services. There’s going back to that sense of possibility that ETA gave me, there’s a lot of ways you can take this. And by the way, now you’re in a business, you’re in your boring business and if you bought big enough and if you’ve improved it, there could be real cashflow coming off of it from which you can then buy other businesses. And so what this looks like after some number of years and you’re becoming more advanced and more sophisticated is you are less and less in the business, you’re working more on the business, you have more cashflow coming out of it, you have deeper relationships with lenders, local or otherwise.
They’ve seen you as an operator start to trust you. If you can get the business to a certain size, you have that much more debt that becomes available to you and you could really start to build something big. I mean, I’ve had a number of people on the podcast who have built businesses well, well into the eight figures of revenue, $50 million businesses and beyond.

Dave:
Wow.

Will:
So the potential here is really uncapped. So I’ve

Dave:
Been listening to your show a lot and one of the things I’ve learned that’s struck me is that it’s honestly kind of similar to many of the scaling and career paths that people take in real estate. It’s obviously different risk reward profile, different business thing. But what I’ve seen is that some people become cashflow investors, right? They buy a business and they want it to be a lifestyle business where they work on it a lot in the first couple of years, but then over time they can step away from it a little bit and have it be a lifestyle business. That’s what a lot of people do in real estate. That’s kind of the path I’ve tried to follow over the last 15 years as a real estate investor. There are other people who do what we would call something like a BER or value add investing in entrepreneurship through acquisition, whereas you buy something and you improve it.
Maybe you do that through sales, but there’s also ways to do that through systems and efficiency and operations, something similar you do in real estate. There are even people who essentially flip these businesses, right? You go in, you try and implement new management and new skills and grow them and then you sell them to private equity. And so that’s what I think is so cool about it is that there are a lot of different approaches, different strategies to acquiring these businesses and operating them that can align to your lifestyle goals provided that you’re willing to put those years in and that effort into it.

Will:
Yes. There’s all different types of models here. I gave you these outsized examples of people building $50 million revenue businesses, but yeah, you could also buy a business that throws off half a million dollars a year and it pays you half a million dollars a year and you’ve got a general manager. I’m not going to say it’s going to be passive, but you’ve got a guy who’s making the trains run on time as we say and you can have a more semi-passive or less intense relationship to that business and be earning taken home half a million dollars a year. And by the way, this real estate people will of course resonate with this. You’ve got debt on the business and the business is paying down that debt. The SBA loans are 10 year amortization loans. So after 10 years, you’ve bought the business for 10% cash and then after those 10 years you’ve paid down that loan.
So the entire equity value of the business you’ve also been generating over those 10 years and then you have an asset. I don’t like to use that word in business buying land, but people do. Then you’ve got an asset that is worth whatever you paid for it plus inflation plus appreciation plus growth that hopefully you’ve generated over those last 10 years. All the while having made $500,000 a year. That’s

Dave:
Amazing. Yeah. That is

Will:
Amazing.

Dave:
Can you give us some examples of businesses that people buy or maybe some industries that you have seen work on the podcast?

Will:
There are certain categories that are really popular where you see a lot of acquisitions occur. HVAC or home services broadly is one of them that’s been a very popular space, both at the private equity level, but also the individual entrepreneur buying a business level. That’s why I keep coming back to HVAC or plumbing. Landscaping is another one. And you see a lot of those stories because there are a lot of those businesses in every market. There are some dozen of those businesses. And while the trade and the technicians is complicated and you are unlikely to learn how to become a plumber, the business motion itself is relatively easy to understand. You’ve got people that you send into the field to go fix people’s homes and then they come back and you can figure this out. It’s not too specialized. It’s not too complex, not easy, but not overly complex for people to understand.
So that’s one common model. In private equity, there are some typical characteristics that make a business less risky and a good target for acquisition. A key piece of this whole model is buying with leverage, which again, a real estate audience will understand just intuitively. What real estate people might take for granted is that because when you buy real estate, you’re not worried that you aren’t going to have cash coming in. You’re going to rent the place and the cash is going to come in. In business land, when you’re running a business, that’s a far less sure thing. You need to be generating demand all the time and demand can ebb and flow. And HVAC, to keep going back to that, for example, if you have a mild summer and people are using their air conditioning less, all of a sudden you have a lot less demand that summer and that can bring your numbers down.
And when you have a lot of leverage on the business, that can put the squeeze badly on you and it can be really uncomfortable or worse. So because we are putting leverage on these businesses to buy them and because the demand is far less certain than in a real estate context, we get really scientific about what we call the quality of the revenue that the business generates. What is the quality of that revenue? And the more recurring it is, the better. SaaS businesses are the canonical example here, contracted Netflix style business where they have your credit card and they just ding it every month. That’s the highest quality revenue you can get if you can to find something like that. Reoccurring revenue is one step below that. And then there’s a whole spectrum and there’s vocabulary there. But what you’re looking for is the predictability of revenue.
So sometimes it’s less about the exact industry and more about the features of the business. People want recurring revenue, they want business to business revenue. It’s considered justifiably far safer to buy a business that services other businesses than services, fickle consumers. B2C businesses are generally considered weaker, the revenue quality, lesser. And so anyway, this is something that we spend a lot of time talking about on the podcast. I could go on about it. One more feature I’ll just share with your audience and then I’ll stop the essentialness of a service, how essential it is. So if you’re looking at a business to potentially buy and the service that it provides to other businesses, its customers is essential. For example, forklift repair, okay? So your customers need those forklifts to work or their businesses stop moving. That’s a service that they need that they’re going to call you for and that gives you pricing power and other things.
Although of course it depends on what your competition looks like. Maybe there’s a lot of forklift repair businesses around that you have to compete with and you have less pricing power. So it’s very nuanced and complex and this is kind of the fun and the art. It’s both art and science, this, but those are a couple of things to look for, essentialness, B2B versus B2C and the quality of that revenue, how recurring or reoccurring in nature is it.

Dave:
Maybe I could just relate some of these things to our real estate focused audience here. Like recurring revenue you could find in HVAC. Those are like probably why private equity is buying them is because they put you on a service contract or this is probably why every pest control company wants to put you on a service contract instead of just doing a one-time extermination. Or I think I’ve been dealing with this recently, but even when you talk about required mold remediation, right, you got to do it. That’s just something that as a real estate investor, you’re going to come across, especially when you live in Pacific Northwest like I do. It’s a damp place. So that’s required. You don’t have an option. You got to do it. And so those are the businesses that have sort of higher quality of earnings so to speak. Well, you’ve done a great job sort of explaining to everyone pros, cons, trade-offs, what’s this good for?
If someone’s really genuinely interested in this, what are the steps they should take? Obviously you need to educate yourself, but what does the acquisition process actually entail?

Will:
Okay. So there’s a lot of education here. So go out and listen to the podcast and read the books and so on, watch the videos. And then the other big thing I would start doing is looking at BizBuy/SellbizBuysell.com. I love this website. It’s a 25-year-old website and it’s basically all the local businesses that are for sale show up there.

Dave:
It’s Zillow for small businesses.

Will:
Right.

Dave:
But

Will:
Not nearly as polished as Zillow.

Dave:
No, no, no.

Will:
That said, it will give you a sense of what’s possible. It’ll maybe wet your appetite for particular industries, things that you didn’t even occur to you that such a business, that you could be the owner of such a business and it’ll just allow you to start fantasizing. “What if I bought that business? What if I bought this business? Ooh, I would never buy a business like that. “And it just starts to make this a little bit more real in your mind and allow

Dave:
You

Will:
To … So it’s more of a psychological exercise than anything. You’re unlikely to find a business there to buy. That said, I have had plenty of guests who did find their business on business myself. Now, okay, so that’s all your prep, but just to quickly walk you through the steps of what this really looks like to go out buy a business and become its owner, you find a deal you like, you submit the LOI, the letter of intent. It’s non-binding. So a lot of people get hung up here because they feel that they can’t submit that LOI before they have everything dialed in and they’re ready to act on it and so they just never do it. You shouldn’t treat it lightly, but you also, you need to get over this hump. This is where a lot of people just stall out and never get beyond this point.
So you need to get comfortable submitting an LOI on a business. There’s a guy in our space who admonishes people to just send the damn LOI. That’s just more for your own psychological evolution than for anything else.

Dave:
We talk about this all the time, just make an offer. Oh really? Real estate. Yeah. It’s funny. A lot of time people are like, ” Oh, they won’t accept it. Oh, it’s been sitting on the market. “Just make the offer. There’s nothing to lose. I mean, real estate offers can be binding, so just everyone knows that. But do your due diligence and make the offer, you’ll learn a lot from the process, but go on.

Will:
Yes, exactly. You’ll learn a lot from the process. Then you will, let’s say this is actually a deal that looks like it could happen. Then you’ll engage with The broker, probably. And then eventually if you have a couple calls with the broker and it seems like there’s a deal to be had here, they’ll introduce you to the seller, the owner of this business. There will be some getting to know you stuff. You’ll go out and meet them. Maybe you’ll go with your partner and he’ll bring his partner and you’ll go have dinner together and break bread and see if there’s rapport. And there’s a whole process here. This is probably very different than real estate in that the emotional piece of this for sellers is delicate because this is their, in many cases, their identity. They are riding off into the sunset. This is the last thing that they’re going to do.
This is something that they, this is the proverbial, this is their baby. They care about their people. They want to make sure their people are left in good hands. It’s a lot of money. It’s probably their first and last big liquidity event in their lives. So this is a notoriously unpredictable, choppy and slow, multi-month, sometimes longer process. But you’re going back and forth, you’re building rapport, you’re getting to know people, you’re negotiating all the items, which are many. You’re then bringing in all of the service providers, the lenders. Then eventually, if everybody can come to terms, and you’re probably renegotiating that offer, renegotiating the LOI, but eventually you’re finally getting to the table and closing. And that’s probably not unlike a real estate close. Then you show up day one and hopefully you and the owner walk onto the shop floor or whatever it is and the owner introduces you and says glowing things about how you’re going to take this business

Dave:
To

Will:
The next level and he really trusts you with the business with his people and everybody should welcome you and give you the best shot and then you give a speech and you’re off to the races.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, thank you. That’s super helpful. I mean, it’s not totally dissimilar from buying real estate. You’re doing your due diligence, you’re underwriting, you’re getting financing. There is this piece where you got to go learn the specifics of a business in a way that does seem harder than real estate. You go into a rental property, if you’re experienced at this, even if you’re new, you could figure out what needs fixing, what looks like it’s a good shape. You know the people that call to contract stuff. It does seem like there are unknowns in this business and it’s going to take a lot longer to purchase one of these things, but it’s not totally dissimilar from the process. It’s just different timelines, different things that you need to focus on. Yeah. Now, Will, I want to ask you about the population, the demographic and sort of the macroeconomic, what I think are tailwinds that support this industry.
You mentioned a lot of times you’re buying from a boomer. Tell us a little bit more about this and why ETA is becoming popular right now because of some of these demographic realities.

Will:
So the conventional wisdom is that we are experiencing the so- called silver tsunami.
And this is the baby boomer generation retiring. Most, I think it’s fair to say of the small businesses that are the type that one might acquire are owned by people in their 60s and 70s and these businesses don’t have a succession plan. And so they need to transact or they need to go somewhere or they’ll shut down. And so there’s this demographic opportunity for people who are interested in buying these businesses that there’s a large quantity of them that are going to be coming on the market in the next few years. Now I will say that people have been saying that for a long time. People have been saying that for 15 years. I mean, you can find people talking in 2000s about … Oh, really?

Dave:
Oh yeah. Oh yeah. We’ve been hearing how the housing market’s going to crash for the silver tsunami, selling all their homes since 2010.

Will:
Oh, really? Oh, how

Dave:
Funny. Same thing. Yeah.

Will:
Okay. Well, then this audience will be rightly skeptical when they hear that. There’s probably some truth to it, but I think it’s also oversold. And I’ll tell you as well, because of the popularity over the last five years, this surging popularity of entrepreneurship through acquisition, ETA, there’s a lot of us buyers now. So the competition for these businesses is actually quite stiff. You’ll hear people in major metros talk about how hard it is to find a business to buy and that every other person looking to buy a business looked at a deal that came on BizBuy Seller that a broker had. I really caution people to not frankly believe the silver tsunami. There may be some actual demographic truth to it, but don’t be wooed by that to think that, oh, it’s going to be so easy. I can throw a rock and find a great business to buy at 3X.
Not going to happen.

Dave:
It is

Will:
Hard to find a business to buy

Dave:
Hard. Now one last question here before we get out of here, Will, asking for a friend, but really asking for myself. What about investing in someone else who wanted to do this? Does that happen? If I wanted to invest in someone who does love HVAC or does love has a plumbing business, I think a lot of our audience might be interested in dabbling in this without fully committing their time and effort to it. Are there other ways to participate?

Will:
Absolutely. So there are a lot of opportunities here, although not so many that are really formalized. If you were interested in investing in somebody who’s buying an SBA style HVAC acquisition, yes, those types of people are often trying to raise a few hundred thousand dollars and they often raise them in check sizes of 25 to $50,000. So if you wanted to invest $100,000 across four deals, you can do that. Now finding those deals, there’s a community here. And so you would need to embed yourself there. There’s a website called searchfunder.com where you might, which is a forum, you might get on and raise your hand to say that you’re interested investing in deals. There’s a pretty active Twitter community, X community, where you can go on and follow people and join the conversation and raise your hand to say, “I’m interested in investing in deals.” There’s a spreadsheet that floats around the ecosystem that’s a list of people who are interested in investing in this deals.
Sam Rosati, people can look that up in his spreadsheet. You can add your name to that. So as you can see, it’s a little scrappy, but like anywhere, you just kind of got to get into the ecosystem and make yourself known and then people will happily raise money for your deal. I will say that investing in anything, look at a lot of deals before you write that first 25 or $50,000 check. There’s a lot of bad deals out there. So you want

Dave:
To

Will:
Make sure that you’ve developed some sense of what a good deal looks like. And then if you wanted to go bigger than small 25, $50,000 checks, there are funds like actually ours where we invest in much larger deals and doing individuals. They’re called independent sponsors, but they’re more doing traditional private equity style deals, much larger businesses, $4 million, $5 million of earnings. These are bigger businesses. And those folks are raising much larger amounts of capital and we have raised from our own LPs to make investments in those. And so you could become an LP, an investor in a fund like Minds Capital where we give you that access to the lower middle market business acquisition ecosystem, but you’re not making the decisions deal by deal. We’re doing that work for you. And so there’s Minds Capital and things like it as well.

Dave:
Will, thank you so much for being here. This was a lot of fun. I learned a lot. I hope our audience learned a lot about this potentially interesting avenue for pursuing financial freedom, either in addition to or in lieu of real estate investing. Will, you’ve mentioned the show, but where should people connect with you if they want to learn more?

Will:
Well, the name of the podcast again is Acquiring Minds. You can find it on all your podcast feeds on YouTube. We published two interviews a week every Monday and Thursday is a case study, an interview with an entrepreneur who’s gone down this path all manner of stories and size and types of businesses and backgrounds of the entrepreneur who did this. So a great way to just wet your beak if you’re interested in this path is to just tune into acquiring minds and the many, many stories that we’ve already published and will continue to. Acquiringmines.co is the URL and I’m all over the place, findable, anything attached to that.

Dave:
Awesome. Will, thanks so much for joining us and thank you all so much for watching this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. We’ll see you next time. I

 

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[Targeted] American Express Hilton Spending Offers


The Offer

No direct link to offer, shows under amex offers

  • American Express is offering some Hilton cardholders spend offers:
    • Spend $2,000 in one or more purchases and get 9,000 points (limit 27,000 points)

Screenshot

The Fine Print

  • Valid until 8/21/26
  • Requires registration
  • Purchases must be made in US Dollars

Our Verdict

Might be useful if you’re trying to hit spend requirements or the free night certificate spend requirement on the Surpass.

Inside the ‘stealth wealth’ playbook: How Silicon Valley’s elite buy mansions without records


For the ultrawealthy, it used to largely be the case that they wanted their flashy home purchases and sales to be made very public: Think drone shots, a glossy listing, and a splashy press release naming the owner and buyer. 

All of that served as a way to show off and solidify their wealth. But now the upper echelons of the housing market want to be much more private, and a lot of it has to do with privacy being the new sought-after luxury.

A growing class of ultrawealthy buyers, particularly tech and AI executives who have moved to Silicon Valley, are deliberately routing their home purchases through limited liability companies, privacy trusts, and so-called “whisper” listings that never touch the multiple listing service. 

Their end goal isn’t getting the best deal they can possibly get: It’s more about maintaining anonymity and thinning their paper trails to ensure security. This new phenomenon is called stealth wealth buying, Ken DeLeon, founder of Palo Alto, Calif.-based DeLeon Realty, told Fortune

The shift started about three years ago, said DeLeon, who is one of Silicon Valley’s top-producing luxury brokers and was once ranked the nation’s No. 1 real estate agent by the Wall Street Journal and RealTrends.That was when the market capitalization of tech companies began to grow again, and more wealthy people began flooding Silicon Valley.

Photo courtesy DeLeon Realty

“Increased wealth brought about greater security concerns and a stronger desire for privacy,” he said. “Over the last year, AI has driven some of the greatest wealth creation Silicon Valley has seen in 25 years, while also becoming an increasingly controversial topic. As a result, the desire for privacy has grown even stronger.”

Meanwhile, home prices in Silicon Valley have continued to rise. Atherton posted a median sale price of $8.33 million in 2025, a 5% gain from the previous year and a new high for the longtime Bay Area billionaire enclave, according to PropertyShark. The town’s top deal of the year was a $51.5 million sale of a 10,000-square-foot estate once owned by tech executive and multimillionaire Stephen Luczo, and it traded off-market, Palo Alto Online reported. 

That detail is key: For the buyers behind these transactions, exposure about their home transactions is more of a liability than a flex.

Think back to April, when a man threw a Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman‘s North Beach home in San Francisco, setting fire to an exterior gate. Authorities later alleged the 20-year-old suspect had traveled from Texas, intending to kill Altman, and had written about AI’s purported risk to humanity.

“Events like this have made people want to distance themselves further from public attention and increased their desire to remain anonymous,” DeLeon said.

Inside a ‘whisper’ listing

The mechanics of stealth-wealth home transactions look nothing like a standard sale. There is no Zillow notification, no open house, and often no sign in the yard. A listing might circulate among just three to five elite brokers in a given metro before quietly trading hands, DeLeon said.

“Some sellers prioritize privacy over price and are willing to sell off market to avoid exposure,” he added. 

Outside of Silicon Valley, off-market residential sales have surged at least 30% year-over-year in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens between 2024 and 2025, with Brooklyn alone logging roughly $5.4 billion in privately marketed sales, according to data reported by The Real Deal.

Anonymity extends beyond just the listing. For higher-end clients, DeLeon said, he routinely recommends taking title through an LLC or a privacy trust—but with one key detail.

“Sophisticated clients want to structure things carefully, making sure the manager of the LLC is not someone directly associated with them, such as their personal attorney,” he said. “The goal is to ensure that, even if someone digs into ownership records, they still cannot easily connect the property back to the principal owner.”

And the effort toward maintaining privacy doesn’t stop at closing.

“Utilities, deliveries, and even small packages, such as toys ordered for their children, are often placed under the LLC or trust name rather than their personal name,” DeLeon said, in order for owners to maintain a low profile.

The broker as a buffer

It’s not just the buyers’ or sellers’ effort to keep a low profile. The job of luxury agents has shifted, too. DeLeon said he’s routinely asked to act as a buffer by meeting vendors, signing for inspections, and fielding questions and details that an owner would normally handle.

Sometimes clients won’t even want agents or sellers to know who they are, he added.

“In some cases, both sides of the transaction conceal their identities,” he said. “I try to serve as a buffer for my clients throughout the entire process, ensuring that vendors and other involved parties do not know the identity of the principal.”

The cost of maintaining a low profile

While stealth-wealth buyers win privacy, they pay for it—literally. That’s because off-market sales tend to reach a smaller pool of buyers, which means less competition and often lower offers. 

“Most sellers understand that when they sell off the market, they are usually accepting a lower sales price,” DeLeon said. “In general, studies have shown that off-market listings across nearly all price points tend to sell for less than they would if they were fully exposed to the open market.”

A February 2025 Zillow Research analysis of 2.7 million home sales also shows that homes sold off the MLS in 2023 and 2024 typically went for almost $5,000 less than those listed on the MLS. That represents a median 1.5% gap, totaling more than $1 billion in lost proceeds for sellers. In California, the gap widened to 3.7%, or roughly $30,075 per home.

That tradeoff has caught regulators’ attention. The National Association of Realtors’ Clear Cooperation Policy requires agents to submit listings within one business day of publicly marketing them. As of March 2025, sellers can instruct agents to use a new “delayed marketing exempt listing” option, but only after signing a written disclosure acknowledging the trade-offs.

DeLeon said brokerages still push off-market sales for the wrong reasons. 

“Unfortunately, many brokerages encourage off-market sales not to protect sellers’ privacy, but to minimize marketing costs and increase the likelihood of double-ending their commission,” he said.

Whether stealth wealth practices will become even more prevalent is still in question. 

“If sellers are told the true cost of selling off-market—that protecting privacy will likely lower their sales price—then I think the pendulum may swing back where sellers prefer to get full exposure for their home and thereby maximize their sales price,” DeLeon said, “even if it means some loss of privacy.”

BofA says you’ll be 10x more productive with AI. Ignore the 0.1% result so far


Bank of America has a message for anyone who has grown skeptical of the AI boom: you are thinking too small.

In a report published Thursday, the bank’s research team made a typically sweeping claim for a Wall Street bank assessing the supposed artificial intelligence boom. It’s not like electricity or even the internet, the global economics team wrote. It is more powerful than both — and the productivity boom it will eventually deliver could be 10x larger than anything the economy is currently showing.

The problem is that the economy is currently showing 0.1%, “a small aggregate effect relative to all the excitement around AI,” the bank admitted. It’s a number so small that it barely registers against global growth of 3.5%.

Whether that argument holds is the most consequential open question in economics right now — and not everyone on Wall Street is buying it.

What 0.1% actually means

The gap between AI’s micro-level fireworks and its macro-level footprint is real, documented, and striking.

AI is already delivering task-level productivity gains that would have seemed implausible five years ago: software developers completing 55% more work with AI coding tools, customer support agents resolving 14% more tickets, professional writers finishing projects 37% to 40% faster.

But these aren’t showing up as a boost to GDP, BofA said, explaining that while AI can currently transform about 20% of all workplace tasks, only 23% of those are actually cost-effective to automate at today’s prices. Automated tasks save roughly 27% in labor costs, and labor is about half of all costs. Multiply it out and the theoretical ceiling is a 0.66% gain in labor productivity — before organizational friction, skills mismatches, slow diffusion, and regulatory drag compress it further toward the figure BofA has landed on: 0.1% per year.

The bank acknowledges the academic literature on AI’s aggregate impact is “inconclusive,” with multiple studies finding that even firm-level gains shrink or disappear when economists look at national accounts. While GDP statistics are poor at capturing quality improvements, this fits with the anecdotal sense that there’s a yawning divide between AI on paper and in reality. EY-Parthenon’s vice chair Mitch Berlin told Fortune earlier this month that he’s seeing a real “gap” in conversations with clients, even while saying that everyone he talks to is excited about what lies ahead.

BofA said AI is different when compared to previous innovations such as electricity or information and communication technology. The key difference, the bank argued, is that it can have an impact across a broader part of the economy than those previous advances, and “small improvements on this front can easily magnify the impact on aggregate productivity 10 times over the next decade.” BofA’s case rests heavily on the view that AI will follow the same J-curve — delayed impact followed by rapid acceleration.

But, still, a 10x increase? Really?

The 10x claim, unpacked

BofA’s bull case is not a forecast so much as an arithmetic exercise in what happens when conditions change — and the bank is explicit that the conditions driving that change are reasonable to expect.

The 10x figure comes from work by economist Philippe Aghion and co-authors published in 2024, which plugged more current AI capability estimates into a standard productivity model and found cumulative gains over the next decade that are 10 times larger than what today’s numbers suggest. The mechanism is straightforward: as AI models improve and inference costs fall — currently halving roughly every three months — the share of tasks that are both transformable and economically viable to automate expands rapidly. Each incremental expansion compounds non-linearly.

Doubling AI’s task reach from 20% to 40%, everything else equal, more than doubles aggregate productivity gains. If AI becomes cheap enough that all currently transformable tasks make economic sense to automate, gains multiply by more than seven. Add capital deepening — companies investing more as the return on capital rises — and the numbers get larger still.

But BofA makes a distinctive argument about innovation itself. Wheres electricity was powerful in automating physical processes, and the internet moved information faster, neither technology made inventing new things faster. AI can — by assisting research, accelerating hypothesis generation and augmenting the cognitive work that produces breakthroughs.

The bear case BofA doesn’t mention

Eight days before BofA’s report landed, Panmure Liberum strategist Joachim Klement published a detailed argument that the AI investment cycle is not a productivity story waiting to unfold, but rather a bubble that is still waiting to pop.

From a macro perspective, the AI boom is already 60% larger than the dot-com bubble at its peak, with tech investment accounting for 93% of all U.S. GDP growth, far beyond the 56% peak of the technology, media and telecom era. Hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle — are projected to spend $658 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone, growing at a 20% annual clip through 2030.

For those investments to generate even a 10% return, Klement calculated that hyperscalers need to find $2 trillion to $5 trillion in additional annual revenue — a quadrupling of their current base, with no meaningful increase in costs. Meta’s implied return on invested capital on its planned spending: negative 28.8%. Oracle’s: negative 35.6%. “There clearly are signs of irrational exuberance in stock markets today when it comes to the AI investment theme,” Klement wrote.

Klement also made a structural argument about the software layer that the productivity bulls tend to skip. Hallucinations in large language models, research from Tsinghua University shows, are not a fixable bug — they are neurologically inherent, traceable to neurons that emerge during pre-training and cannot be removed without breaking the model. This structurally disqualifies LLMs from the high-stakes deterministic use cases — accounting, legal filings, compliance — that currently justify much of the enterprise that premium investors are paying.

And threatening the entire data center rationale quietly from below: specialized small language models running locally on desktop hardware, at costs up to 1,000 times cheaper than cloud-based LLMs for routine commercial tasks. If the workloads that justify the hyperscaler capex boom can be handled locally and cheaply, the house of cards Klement described starts to look structurally unstable from the foundation.

Klement is not predicting imminent collapse — he estimates the bubble can sustain another one to two years on rate cuts. But in his mildest scenario, a modest correction in U.S. tech investment would send European and UK markets into bear territory. In a repeat of the dot-com crash, technology stocks would drop more than 70%.

The number in the middle

Tyler Cowen, one of the most widely read economists in the United States, addressed the gap between BofA’s bull case and Panmure’s bear case at the Sana AI Summit at the New York Public Library on Thursday — without quite framing it that way.

His forecast for AI’s contribution to U.S. growth: from 2% to 2.5%. Meaningful, he argued, but far short of what Silicon Valley is promising — and far short of BofA’s 1 percentage point addition to global growth. The constraint, in his telling, is institutional: roughly 40% to 50% of U.S. GDP sits in sectors — government, higher education, healthcare, nonprofits — that will be “very slow to adjust.” That drag doesn’t make AI less real. It makes the timeline longer and the path more uneven than the most bullish projections suggest.

Cowen’s 2.5% is still, in his view, transformative. Against the backdrop of $39 trillion in national debt, that delta is the difference between a debt spiral and a manageable fiscal path. “You feel we’re screwed,” he told the audience. “My kids are screwed, grandkids are screwed … But if our economy can grow at 2.5%, instead of 2%, that debt, rather than exploding and making us the next Greece, that debt actually converges to a manageable level.”

Cowen also asked the audience hypothetically, what else is there? “The way to get out of this hole, like if you work in AI, you are our savior.” Productivity growth means to no big tax increase and no big cut to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, he added, and there isn’t another good idea about how to plug the gap. “You are our plan A. There is no plan B.”

What the bulls and bears agree on

Strip away the valuation disagreement and BofA and Panmure Liberum share more common ground than their conclusions suggest. Both believe AI will materially change the economy. Both acknowledge the gap between task-level gains and aggregate productivity is real. Both identify organizational friction — not model capability — as the primary constraint on near-term macro impact.

The disagreement is not about whether the technology works. It is about whether the investment cycle has outrun the technology’s current economic contribution so dramatically that a correction is now the most likely near-term path — even if the long-term productivity boom eventually arrives on the other side of it.

That is a question BofA’s 10x argument, however coherent its mechanics, cannot answer. The gap between 0.1% and 1.0% has a plausible path. What it does not have yet is a timeline.

Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve chair



  • Key takeaway: Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the central bank, is now officially the chair of the Federal Reserve. 
  • Expert quote: “I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job.” — President Donald Trump
  • What’s at stake: Warsh takes the reins of the central bank at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy, as employment data sends mixed signals and inflation shows signs of rising amid the Iran war and tariff pressures. Those developments have added uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policy.

President Donald Trump presided over the administration of the oath of office for Kevin Warsh as he became the chair of the Federal Reserve Board in a ceremony at the White House Friday morning. 

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Trump said at the event that no one was better qualified than Warsh to lead the central bank, which he praised as “a pillar of the world financial system and the most important central bank anywhere in the world, with a history stretching back more than 100 years.” 

Trump added that he wanted Warsh to maintain the central bank’s independence and pursue his own objectives as leader of the U.S. central bank.

“Honestly — I really mean this, this is not meant in any other way — I want Kevin to be totally independent,” Trump said. “I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job.”

Warsh said after taking his oath of office, which was administered by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, that he viewed his mission as Fed chair as one aimed at bolstering prosperity for all Americans. 

“While I’m not naive about the challenges we face, I believe, Mr. President, these years can bring unmatched prosperity that will raise living standards for Americans from all walks of life, and the Fed has something to do with it,” Warsh said. “Our mandate at the Fed is to promote price stability and maximum employment. When we pursue those aims with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, growth stronger, real take-home pay higher, and America can be more prosperous, and no less important, America’s place in the world more secure.”

As chair, Warsh will oversee meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy and seeks to balance the central bank’s dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment.

Warsh takes the helm of the Federal Reserve System at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy. Employment data has sent mixed signals, while inflation has shown signs of rising amid trade policies and the war in Iran. Together, those factors have clouded the outlook for monetary policy, with risks present to both the employment and price stability elements of the Fed’s monetary policy mandate. 

But the ultimate complicating factor is the president himself, who has pressured the central bank to lower interest rates, a preference he has long expressed but that he has been more strenuous in expressing since taking office last year, raising concerns that the White House is looking to dictate monetary policy.

During his confirmation process, Warsh pledged to make independent judgments on monetary policy, though he could face pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates.

Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21, Warsh rejected the notion that he would bow to political pressure, saying he had not committed to Trump that he would lower interest rates, though he acknowledged their views on monetary policy often align.

Warsh also has promised changes at the central bank. Among his proposals is shrinking the Fed’s $6.7 billion balance sheet and relying more heavily on traditional interest-rate policy to manage the economy. He also has called for changes to the Fed’s communications strategy, arguing policymakers provide too much forward guidance on the future path of interest rates.

The Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed chair in a 54 to 45 vote on May 13. All Republicans voted in favor of Warsh’s appointment, along with one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., did not vote.  

With Warsh stepping into the role, Jerome Powell will step down as chair after leading the central bank for eight years, but will remain on the Board of Governors. His term as governor runs through January 2028.

During his final post-meeting news conference in April, Powell said he chose to remain on the board amid concerns the Trump administration could revive scrutiny over renovation costs tied to the Fed’s headquarters project.

A Department of Justice review launched in January was dropped April 24, around the same time Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., continued to press that the matter is an obstacle to supporting Warsh’s confirmation.

Despite the end of the Justice Department review, Powell said legal and political pressure on the Fed remains a concern and stressed that his decision to stay on the board is intended to help preserve the institution’s independence.

“I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors,” Powell said. “It is so important for the economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend, over time, on a central bank that operates that way: free of political influence.”



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