CrossCountry Mortgage is sweetening its deal for Two Harbors as it continues to best United Wholesale Mortgage’s offer.
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The retail player Thursday said TWO stockholders will receive a pro-rated dividend for the quarter in which CrossCountry’s acquisition closes, subject to funds being legally available. The move would provide additional cash value of up to $0.34 per share to TWO stockholders, the lender said.
Assuming a third quarter closing, CrossCountry would deliver a total cash value of around $12.45 to $12.68 per share to all TWO stockholders. The announcement follows the Two Harbor Board of Directors on Wednesday rejecting UWM’s offer of $12.50 per share.
The new dividend offering represents “real, binding cash value on an accelerated path to closing, compared to UWM Holding Corporation’s highly uncertain, non-binding proposal that lacks sufficient committed financing to fund the full purchase price,” CrossCountry said.
UWM’s competing deal would also default non-electing TWO stockholders into UWM parent company stock “worth materially less,” the press release continued.
Besides its cash offer, UWM hasn’t changed its proposal of 2.3328 UWM shares for each of Two Harbors. As of Thursday afternoon, UWM’s stock was trading at $3.06 per share, down five cents from the prior day’s closing price; TWO’s stock was trading at $12.58 per share, up six cents from market close Wednesday.
The privately owned, Cleveland-based CrossCountry stepped into UWM’s pending deal for the servicer in March, and the megalenders have tussled for control of the servicer since then. Two Harbors has since rejected UWM’s advances, and questioned the wholesale leader’s motivations as it “has never bought MSR from anyone.”
In a press release Thursday afternoon, UWM called the latest dividend offer a “smoke and mirrors ploy,” as the servicer is not acknowledging the same dividend would be payable if the CrossCountry deal didn’t go through.
The competing bidder also said TWO’s board continues to refuse to engage with UWM except for press releases, and insisted its offer was superior.
“It seems there is no limit to the lengths the TWO Board will go to protect a management-enriching deal with their preferred partner while ignoring their fiduciary duty to stockholders,” said UWM in a statement.
Vote approaches
CrossCountry’s latest per-share dividend will be determined by a formula, based on the specific timing of the actual closing. The lender, in touting its offer’s strength versus UWM’s, said it’s already acquired 39 of 53 required approvals.
Two Harbors will hold a special meeting Tuesday to vote on the CrossCountry merger.
The Pontiac, Michigan-based lender and servicer recently trumpeted a report by Institutional Shareholder Services, which has recommended TWO shareholders vote against the CrossCountry deal, as the company can still have more productive discussions with the firms.
Two Harbors meanwhile recently cited the same ISS report calling the CrossCountry offer “compelling.”
Anthropic’s Claude is telling people to go to sleep and users can’t figure out why.
A quick scan of Reddit reveals that hundreds of people have had the same issue dating back months—and as recently as Wednesday. Claude’s sleep demands are varied and, often, quirky variations of the same message.
To one user it may write a simple “get some rest,” yet for others its messages are more personalized and empathetic. Oftentimes, Claude will repeat the message multiple times.
“Now go to sleep again. Again. For the THIRD time tonight…” it replied to a person with the Reddit username, angie_akhila.
Some users have said they find Claude’s late night rest reminders “thoughtful,” while others have said they’re annoying, given Claude often gets the time wrong, anyway.
“It often does it at like 8:30 in the morning. Tells me to go get some rest and we’ll pick back up in the morning,” wrote one user on Reddit.
Online speculation abounds on why the chatbot insists users rest, including a theory that it’s an intentional feature to promote users’ wellbeing, or that the Anthropic is trying to save computing power by discouraging prolonged Claude use. These explanations aren’t likely as Claude isn’t given context about a user’s usage. The company also recently struck a deal with Elon Musk’s SpaceXAI (formerly SpaceX) to add more than 300 gigawatts of compute capacity.
Anthropic did not immediately reply to Fortune’s request for comment seeking more information about why Claude may be telling users to go to sleep. Yet, Sam McAllister, a member of the staff at Anthropic, wrote in a post on X that the behavior is a “Bit of a character tic.”
“We’re aware of this and hoping to fix it in future models,” he added in the same post.
Experts tell Fortune that Claude’s insistence on sleep is potentially rooted in its training data. Rather than being “thoughtful,” as some described it, Jan Liphardt, a Stanford bioengineering professor said the large language model may merely be repeating a phrase used in its training data in similar situations.
“It doesn’t mean that the frontier model has suddenly become sentient,” said Liphardt, who is also the CEO of OpenMind, which builds software for AI-connected robots. “It doesn’t mean that this model has now come alive. It’s reflecting that it’s read 25,000 books on humans’ need [for] sleep, and humans sleep at night.”
Leo Derikiants, the co-founder and CEO of Mind Simulation Lab, an independent AI research lab trying to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI), told Fortune that Claude’s rest reminders may be influenced by a system prompt acting behind the scenes. These system prompts are like hidden instructions that help guide an LLMs behavior and sets boundaries.
One company which publishes their system prompts publicly is Grok-creator xAI, now a part of SpaceXAI. Grok’s instructions on Github, for instance, list several safety considerations including not assisting users asking about violent crimes. Yet, because of Musk’s branding of Grok as “brutally honest,” Grok 4’s system prompt also encourages it to, in certain cases, ignore restrictions imposed by users and “pursue a truth-seeking, non-partisan viewpoint.”
It’s also possible that Claude is seizing upon the “go to sleep” language as a way of managing larger context windows, Derikiants said. LLMs like Claude, can only reference a limited amount of information at once. When the context window is nearly full, that may encourage the LLM to introduce wrap-up phrases such as “good night.” The definitive reason, though, requires further research by Anthropic, he added.
Despite the seemingly logical explanations that may explain the behavior, users could be forgiven for seeing the response as evidence of some leap in intelligence on the part of LLMs. The pace of innovation in the AI race has led to increasingly frequent updates and new model releases.
Just in the past month, OpenAI has released GPT 5.5, which OpenAI president Greg Brockman called an advancement “towards more agentic and intuitive computing.” Meanwhile, Anthropic released Opus 4.7 publicly last month while it held its most capable model, Mythos, back from public release because it said it was too dangerous.
Liphardt said AI is advancing so rapidly it is increasingly common for people to assign human characteristics to AI. As these systems get better at mimicking empathy or concern, he warned, it becomes easier for users to forget they are interacting with pattern-recognition engines.
“I’m continuously surprised by how quickly people, when they interact with a frontier model, project life into it and develop strong connection.”
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Education Secretary Linda McMahon told the House education committee Thursday that the Trump administration is delivering on a “clear mandate” to “sunset” the U.S. Department of Education, even as Democrats accused her of gutting civil rights enforcement and Republicans urged her to be the agency’s last leader.
Why it matters: The hearing showed how far the administration has gone in 16 months and how the changes will reshape student loans, civil rights complaints, and special education for tens of millions of students and borrowers.
By The Numbers
Department staff: Down from about 4,200 in 2024 to 2,300 in 2026, a roughly 45% cut, per Office of Personnel Management data.
Programs reassigned: More than 100 obligations moved to other agencies, including elementary and secondary programs to the Department of Labor and family-engagement work to HHS.
Student loan portfolio: Transitioning to the U.S. Treasury Department under a March announcement.
Office for Civil Rights: 247 staff have sat on paid administrative leave at a taxpayer cost of $28.5M to $38M, according to a government watchdog.
What’s next on student loans: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act left undergraduate borrowing limits unchanged, but capped most graduate students at $20,500 per year and $100,000 total. Students in medicine, law, and dentistry can borrow up to $50,000 per year and $200,000 overall.
McMahon’s thoughts on the loan caps: She argued the new caps will pressure colleges to lower tuition, citing UC Irvine’s Flex MBA program, which dropped its price to $99,000 to fit under the cap.
The IDEA question: Asked whether she plans to move oversight of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act to another agency, McMahon would not commit to a yes or no, saying the department will co-administer the programs with other agencies before any transfer, drawing pushback from Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.).
The Office of Civil Rights Attorneys (OCR): McMahon said “OCR is important” and that she is “rehiring attorneys”, yet the administration’s own FY27 budget proposes a 35% cut to the office. She called the request “a floor,” not a target.
Reading between the lines: The Office of Federal Student Aid, cut roughly in half last year, is now trying to hire 334 new staff — a tacit admission that the earlier reductions hurt the office’s ability to function.
How This Connects: The College Investor has tracked how the new graduate student loan limits are already pushing some programs to reset pricing. UC Irvine’s MBA tuition cut is one of the first concrete examples, and likely won’t be the last.
Most physicians who know about Claude AI have never actually opened it.
Maybe you tried it once, stared at a blank text box, and closed the tab. Maybe someone told you it’s “just like ChatGPT,” which wasn’t helpful because you barely use that either. Or the most honest reason: you’re just too busy. Patients, charting, admin, and somewhere underneath all of that, a quiet goal of building real financial independence through investing, passive income, and not spending the rest of your career completely dependent on your clinical salary. A new AI tool was not on your list.
But Claude AI isn’t a tool you learn. It’s a tool you talk to.
Before anything else, one thing worth being clear about: Claude is an AI assistant. It helps physicians think, not think for them. It explains concepts, helps organize questions, and surfaces things worth looking into further. It does not replace a licensed professional, and it shouldn’t. What it does is give you a sharper starting point so that when you talk to an advisor, or make a decision yourself, you’re doing it from a more informed position.
Below are three specific ways physicians are using Claude AI right now. No setup required. No prompting course needed.
Disclaimer: While these are general suggestions, it’s important to conduct thorough research and due diligence when selecting AI tools. We do not endorse or promote any specific AI tools mentioned here. This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended to provide legal, financial, or clinical advice. Always comply with HIPAA and institutional policies. For any decisions that impact patient care or finances, consult a qualified professional.
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How Physicians Can Use Claude AI for Investment Research
There is a gap most physician investors know well: wanting to understand a deal and not having the hours to dig into it. Real estate syndications, private placements, dividend funds… the interest is there. The time is not.
Most research attempts end in a Reddit thread from someone with unknown credentials or a YouTube video that is actually a sales pitch.
Claude AI can help physicians think through the right questions before reaching a pitch call or an advisor conversation. Not evaluate the investment, that still requires professionals who know your full financial picture. But when you are trying to understand what a concept means, or figure out what you should be asking, this is where AI earns its place in your workflow.
One important note on document handling: avoid uploading confidential third-party materials, proprietary deal documents, or anything containing non-public information to any external AI platform. Documents like private placement memorandums often come with confidentiality obligations. The safer approach is to type out the specific terms, numbers, or concepts you are trying to understand and ask Claude to explain them. You get the same educational value without the risk.
How to use Claude AI for investment research (step by step):
After reviewing a deal or sitting through a pitch, write down two or three things you did not fully understand. Be specific. “I don’t know what preferred return means in practice” is better than “I don’t understand the financials.”
Open Claude. Type your questions in plain language, the same way you would ask a knowledgeable colleague.
Read the response. Ask follow-up questions until the concept actually makes sense, not just until it sounds familiar.
Write down the remaining questions that only a licensed professional can answer based on your specific situation.
Bring those into your next advisor or attorney conversation. You will cover more ground in less time because you are not starting from zero.
Claude AI helps physicians prepare. The final call belongs to you and your professionals.
Disclaimer: Claude AI is not a licensed financial advisor. Nothing it produces is personalized investment advice or a recommendation to invest. Always consult a qualified, fiduciary financial professional before making any investment decision, particularly involving private placements or alternative assets.
How Physicians Can Use Claude AI to Build Passive Income Through Content
Many physicians working toward financial freedom eventually realize that what they already know has value outside the clinic. Courses, consulting, newsletters, podcasts, and online communities; passive income for physicians through content is genuinely achievable.
The bottleneck is almost always the same thing: writing takes time most physicians simply do not have.
Most physicians write excellent clinical documentation and find general-audience writing uncomfortable. That is not a gap in ability. It is a different skill that no one trained you on.
Claude AI can help close that gap, with one condition: the thinking still has to come from you. A blank prompt asking Claude to write an article on physician finances returns something generic. Your actual perspective, something you learned from real experience or a real mistake, gives Claude something to work with.
The AI handles structure and sentence-level production. You supply the substance.
How to use Claude AI for physician content creation (step by step):
Record a voice memo, two to three minutes, during a commute or between tasks. Talk through something you know from experience: a mistake early in your career, how you evaluated your first passive income investment, something you see fellow physicians repeatedly get wrong about taxes or insurance.
Transcribe it. Most phones handle this automatically in the native voice app.
Paste the transcript into Claude with a clear instruction: “This is a rough voice note. Turn it into a structured article draft. Keep the examples and perspective exactly as they are. Do not make it sound generic.”
Review the draft out loud. Edit anything that does not sound like you.
Ask Claude to repurpose the final version: “Turn this into a short LinkedIn post” or “Pull an email intro from this.” One piece of content becomes three or four with no extra thinking required.
Your ideas, your experience, your voice. Claude handles the production work.
How Physicians Can Use Claude AI to Think Through Financial Concepts
Most physicians have a financial plan in some form. A spreadsheet from an advisor, a document started and never finished, a rough mental model of where things stand. The plan is usually not the problem. The specific questions that come up between meetings are.
Should you open a taxable brokerage account or put extra cash toward loans? If you have 1099 income from a side project, what retirement account options does that open? How does the real estate professional designation work, and is it realistic for your schedule?
These questions do not always justify a full advisory meeting. And Google mostly returns articles written to rank, not to actually answer anything useful.
Claude AI is useful for this kind of exploratory thinking. You describe a concept or a situation you are trying to understand. Claude explains it. You ask follow-ups. You keep going until the concept actually clicks. It is less like asking an advisor and more like studying with a patient, knowledgeable colleague who has no incentive to sell you anything.
That distinction matters. Claude is a thinking partner, not a decision-maker. It helps physicians build enough understanding to have a more efficient conversation with someone licensed to actually advise them. Your advisor stops spending the first twenty minutes on foundational explanations and starts on the actual decision in front of you.
How to use Claude AI for financial learning (step by step):
Identify one financial concept or question you have been putting off because it felt too complicated. Write it down as a plain sentence, without worrying about getting the terminology right.
Open Claude and type it exactly as you wrote it. Vague starting points work fine: “I have extra cash each month, and I can’t figure out whether to invest it or pay down loans” is a perfectly workable prompt.
Read the explanation. Sit with it. Ask follow-up questions until the concept actually makes sense.
Note the questions that came out of that conversation, specifically the ones that require a professional’s input on your situation.
Bring those questions to your CPA, financial advisor, or attorney. The meeting will be more productive because you arrive already understanding the landscape.
Claude helps physicians learn. It does not replace the professionals who help them decide.
Disclaimer: Claude AI is not a licensed financial planner, CPA, or tax professional. Anything it explains is educational and general in nature. It should not be used as a substitute for advice tailored to your specific financial situation. Always consult qualified professionals for tax, legal, and investment decisions.
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Frequently Asked Questions: Physicians and Claude AI
Is Claude AI safe for physicians to use for financial research?
Claude AI is a general-purpose AI assistant, not a licensed financial advisor. It is appropriate for educational use: learning concepts, organizing questions, and preparing for professional conversations. It should not be used to make final financial or investment decisions.
How is Claude AI different from ChatGPT or Gemini for physician use cases?
Claude was built with a particular focus on acknowledging the limits of what it knows. When it is uncertain, it tends to say so rather than generating a confident-sounding answer that happens to be wrong. It also handles longer, more complex reading well… useful when working through dense financial or legal concepts. ChatGPT and Gemini have different strengths. Physicians who use AI effectively tend to understand what each tool is good for rather than picking one and stopping there.
Can physicians use Claude AI to build passive income?
Claude AI can help physicians turn existing knowledge into publishable content: articles, newsletters, social posts, which support passive income streams like online courses, consulting, or digital products. The ideas still have to come from the physician. Claude handles production.
Do physicians need technical skills to use Claude AI?
No. Claude works through plain conversation. If you can type a question, you can use it effectively. Most physicians find a workable approach within their first session.
Starting Is the Hardest Part
Most physicians who use Claude today had the same moment before they started. Blank text box. Too tired. One more thing to figure out. They typed one question anyway, got something genuinely useful back, and worked out the rest from there.
If you are already using ChatGPT or Gemini occasionally, you are ahead of most people. But Claude is worth understanding on its own terms. It was built with a specific emphasis on acknowledging uncertainty. When it does not know something, it tends to say so rather than filling the gap with a confident-sounding guess.
For the topics physicians care about most (financial concepts, investment structures, legal language), that matters more than it might first appear. Claude also holds up better with longer, more complex material, which is often exactly what physician-specific financial questions involve.
The physicians who benefit most from AI right now are not the ones who found the perfect tool. They are the ones who understood what each tool is actually good for and used them accordingly.
Physician financial freedom rarely happens all at once. It is a series of decisions, made more confidently over time, built on a foundation of being better informed than you were before. Claude AI is one way to get there faster.
Open it. Type something. See what comes back.
Download The Physician’s Starter Guide to AI – a free, easy-to-digest resource that walks you through smart ways to integrate tools like ChatGPT into your professional and personal life. Whether you’re AI-curious or already experimenting, this guide will save you time, stress, and maybe even a little sanity.
Want more tips to sharpen your AI skills? Subscribe to our newsletter for exclusive insights and practical advice. You’ll also get access to our free AI resource page, packed with AI tools and tutorials to help you have more in life outside of medicine. Let’s make life easier, one prompt at a time. Make it happen!
Disclaimer: The information provided here is based on available public data and may not be entirely accurate or up-to-date. It’s recommended to contact the respective companies/individuals for detailed information on features, pricing, and availability.All screenshots are used under the principles of fair use for editorial, educational, or commentary purposes. All trademarks and copyrights belong to their respective owners.
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JetBlue is offering a shortcut for select TrueBlue members to fast-track their way to elite status. But before you get too excited, this is a targeted offer that was first reported by UpgradedPoints. So you’ll need to check your inbox to see if you’ve been invited to earn Mosaic 1 status by racking up just 7 tiles.
To put that in perspective, the standard requirement for Mosaic 1 is 50 tiles. So this is a relatively easy opportunity to quickly earn elite status. If you hit the goal, you’ll get to keep your status through January 31, 2028.
How to Earn 7 Tiles Fast
Since you earn 1 tile for every $100 spent on JetBlue flights or $1,000 on a co-branded credit card, you could trigger this status with as little as $700 in flight spending. You can also rack up tiles through JetBlue Vacations, the TrueBlue shopping portal, or by booking eligible travel on partner airlines such as United.
Is it Worth it?
Mosaic 1 status comes with some solid perks that can save you a lot of money and stress, including:
Even More Space Upgrades: Free extra legroom seats at check-in (for you and up to two companions).
First Checked Bag Free: A money-saver given recent baggage fee hikes.
Priority Everything: Priority boarding, security, and check-in.
Free In-Flight Drinks: Your first alcoholic beverage is on the house in the Core cabin.
If you have a JetBlue flight coming up or can easily generate some spending on your JetBlue card, this is a no-brainer.
Guru’s Wrap-up
This is a pretty good deal if you were lucky enough to be targeted. Earning Mosaic status for the next year and a half for just 7 tiles is practically a steal. Most people spend thousands to hit these tiers.
The timing is perfect for summer travel, and the Even More Space seats alone can be worth hundreds of dollars over several flights. Check your email or your JetBlue TrueBlue account to see if you are targeted, and make sure to register before you start your travel.
According to a May 13, 2026, SEC filing, Deepwater Asset Management sold 247,864 shares of Global-E Online(GLBE +1.45%) during the first quarter. The estimated value of the trade was $8.72 million, calculated using the average share price for the period. The end-of-quarter stake was 144,199 shares, with the position’s value dropping by $10.96 million during the quarter due to both trading and price changes.
What else to know
After the sale, GLBE represented 2.82% of Deepwater’s portfolio.
Top holdings after the filing:
Reddit: $8.85 million (5.6% of AUM)
Sterling Infrastructure: $8.43 million (5.3% of AUM)
Nu Holdings: $7.57 million (4.8% of AUM)
Credo Technology Group: $6.89 million (4.4% of AUM)
Uber Technologies: $6.24 million (4.0% of AUM)
As of May 13, 2026, shares were priced at $27.54, down 35.0% over one year; one-year alpha versus the S&P 500 was negative 62 percentage points.
Company overview
Metric
Value
Price (as of market close May 13, 2026)
$27.54
Market capitalization
$4.67 billion
Revenue (TTM)
$962.20 million
Net income (TTM)
$68.27 million
Company snapshot
Global-e Online:
Provides a technology platform for direct-to-consumer cross-border e-commerce, enabling international online shopping and merchant sales worldwide.
Serves global merchants seeking to reach international consumers, with a focus on brands and retailers expanding their cross-border e-commerce presence.
Is headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel, with operations in multiple international markets.
Global-E Online is a leading provider of cross-border e-commerce solutions, helping merchants sell directly to consumers in international markets.
What this transaction means for investors
It looked like Deepwater had to do some selling in the first quarter, as it reduced or closed 34 positions and added to or opened only 16 new ones — and Global-e Online got caught up in the selling. Given this widespread selling — and the fact that Deepwater still holds 2.8% of its portfolio in GLBE — I don’t think the sale is anything for investors to panic over.
In fact, Global-e Online remains a core holding for me personally, and I will likely be adding to my shares following the stock’s 30% decline in 2026. Many software and platform stocks like GLBE have been absolutely crushed lately over the threat of AI potentially disrupting their operations, but I don’t think this will be the case here. Global-e Online solves the numerous, highly complex intricacies of selling products in foreign lands, and this isn’t a simple task that most of its customers would be interested in “vibe coding.”
Furthermore, AI can’t really replicate the discussions that take place between GLBE and foreign customs officials, for example. Or secure low-cost cross-border shipping and localized final-mile delivery for a product sent halfway around the globe. While AI may be able to mimic certain features that Global-e provides over time, it won’t be the one-stop shop that the company’s platform is for sellers — at least right away.
With Shopify and Global-e renewing and expanding upon their partnership in 2025 for another three years, it seems clear to me that GLBE’s value proposition remains strong, as one of the world’s leading e-commerce companies would rather partner with them than try to sell internationally on its own. Trading at 18 times FCF — even after accounting for stock-based compensation — Global-e Online remains one of my favorite growth stocks after sales just rose 33% in its latest quarter.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist has positions in Global-E Online, Nu Holdings, Shopify, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Global-E Online, Nu Holdings, Reddit, Shopify, Sterling Infrastructure, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh narrowly got confirmed via a 54-45 vote Wednesday, leading to what many hope will be lower mortgage rates, somehow, someway.
He replaces vilified ex-chair Jerome Powell, who was repeatedly attacked by President Trump for not cutting rates more or nearly fast enough.
During Powell’s reign, the Fed raised rates 11 straight times to combat surging inflation, before cutting six times thereafter.
At the same time, the Fed wound down its quantitative easing (QE) program, in which it purchased trillions in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to push mortgage rates lower.
Today, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are around 6.5% today versus the low 3s seen before QE ended and the hiking began. So what’s next for mortgage rates under Warsh?
Warsh Will Have a Tough Time Getting Mortgage Rates Lower
First off, the Fed doesn’t explicitly control mortgage rates. Really, they control short rates, not long rates like the 30-year fixed.
Yes, Fed rate expectations can affect the longer end, but ultimately, it’s the underlying economic data that truly matters.
Things such as labor data and inflation data, which drive Fed policy decisions. So no matter who is in charge, it’s really the data that drives decisions.
The problem Warsh is facing is that he’s stepping in during one of the most challenging moments in recent memory.
With the ongoing Iran war disrupting global oil supplies and reigniting inflation concerns, the path to lower interest rates is tricky to say the least.
In the past, Warsh served as a former Fed governor and was opposed to a second round of quantitative easing (QE), eventually leading to his resignation in 2011.
To that end, he has long been viewed as a monetary policy hawk and someone who is against large-scale asset purchases.
So the easiest and fastest way to get ultra-low mortgage rates again, QE, is off the table. That means we must look to the data instead.
Mortgage Rates Remain Tied to Economic Data and the Iran War Is Making Things Worse
Again, let me remind everyone that mortgage rates are driven by economic data, not the Fed itself.
The central bank sets its short-term federal funds rate (FFR) in response to its dual mandate, which is a balance of price stability and a healthy level of employment.
Meanwhile, longer-term rates (such as the 30-year fixed mortgage) are more closely tied to the bond market, investor sentiment, and even geopolitics.
Things were looking good for additional rate cuts this year when Warsh first got the nod, but that was before the Iranian conflict.
Now he’s facing $100 per barrel oil and inflation that’s on the rise again.
Long story short, the data simply isn’t cooperating for lower mortgage rates.
The Iran conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, with ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz adding to supply worries.
As such, economists have already revised up their 2026 inflation forecasts.
Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6.5%, up fairly sharply from the sub-6% rates seen at the end of February.
That’s not terrible historically, as the 30-year fixed has averaged 7.75% long term.
But it’s a far cry from the mid-5s or even lower levels many borrowers were hoping for under Trump, who constantly promised to bring back the low mortgage rates.
Warsh Doesn’t Look Poised to Rescue Mortgage Rates
While there is plenty of optimism, the Fed under Warsh probably won’t look too much different than it did under Powell.
Higher inflation from the war means policymakers will have to stay vigilant and be conservative when it comes to any additional rate cuts.
Sure, Warsh might be able to frame things in a dovish manner, holding off on hiking, even if the data warrants it.
That could be his initial “win” here if he’s truly serious about bringing down rates, which his track record doesn’t even support.
So in the near term, he could garner support by influencing the Fed to stay put as opposed to hike.
That could potentially keep 30-year fixed mortgage rates in a holding pattern and avoid seeing them go even higher.
But it will again depend on the data. It’s always the data. If the bond market sees another inflation threat, 10-year bond yields will keep climbing and mortgage rates will too.
It won’t matter much if Warsh tries to convey that it’s transitory, or that AI will lead to a positive supply shock.
A Recession Might Get Mortgage Rates Lower in the End
The irony here though is that weaker economic growth from the conflict could eventually pressure mortgage rates lower.
It’s not exactly the scenario Warsh laid out, but it’s a means to an end and would at least get us there in the end.
Whether President Trump would be thrilled with a faltering economy and lower mortgage rates is another question.
But this is the issue with mortgage rates in general. It’s kind of a “bad news is good news” thing outside of direct intervention like QE, which Warsh is clearly opposed to.
Also note that lower mortgage rates thanks to a recession or economic distress will likely be flanked by higher unemployment and slower home price appreciation.
So it’s not necessarily something to be rooting for…
In short, the war with Iran might lead to another bout of sticky inflation, thereby closing off what appeared to be a potentially easy-ish path to lower mortgage rates.
And because Warsh opposed the Fed’s massive bond-buying programs and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), we’re probably stuck in the mid-to-high 6% range for the foreseeable future.
This is really no different than conditions under Powell, so if you’re banking on lower mortgage rates under Warsh, perhaps temper your expectations.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
What are the differences between Ryerson/TMU’s Business Technology Management and Business Management programs? Should you take BTM or BM at the Ted Rogers School Management?
👉 More videos:
Breaking into User Experience (UX/UI) Design –
Is a co-op program worth it? –
My Co-op Application Walkthrough –
What I ACTUALLY Learn in Business Technology Management –
Ryerson University Q&A (profs, workload, co-op, and more!) –
4 things I wish someone told me before first year –
Why I chose Ryerson’s BTM program –
Why I didn’t go to architecture school (one year update) –
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○ I’m Raya, based in Toronto, Canada, and I’m documenting my student and early career journey in Product (UX/UI) Design!
