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То, чего боялись экономисты, происходит сейчас!
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Есть экономические кризисы, которые приходят резко. Один день — и всё рушится. Но есть другой тип кризиса. Намного более опасный. Когда экономика вроде бы растёт, зарплаты повышаются, безработица остаётся рекордно низкой, а людям всё равно становится тяжелее жить.
Этот феномен называется стагфляцией — состояние, которое десятилетиями считалось практически невозможным. Именно с ним столкнулись США в 1970-х, а сегодня о рисках стагфляции всё чаще говорят и применительно к России.
➤ Мой Instagram*: sokolovskiy
В этом выпуске мы разберём: что такое стагфляция простыми словами, почему экономисты считают её одним из самых опасных сценариев для любой страны, как нефтяной кризис 1970-х разрушил привычные экономические теории, почему Пол Волкер вошёл в историю как человек, который остановил инфляцию ценой рецессии, какие признаки стагфляции сегодня видят аналитики в российской экономике, почему при рекордно низкой безработице бизнесу становится всё сложнее работать, как высокая ставка влияет на предпринимателей и обычных людей, какие ошибки совершили Япония и Турция, пытаясь решить похожие проблемы, и что в подобных условиях можно делать со своими деньгами.
Таймкод:
00:00 Экономика растёт, а жить становится тяжелее?
01:55 Что такое стагфляция?
04:23 Истоки стагфляции. Что случилось в США и почему экономисты были уверены, что это невозможно
08:27 Люди, которые уже заплатили цену
12:17 Россия и парадокс нулевой безработицы. Почему бизнес закрывается несмотря на рост экономики
14:58 Три сценария будущего России
20:12 Что делать с деньгами?
🔴 Это видео и его содержимое предназначены для информационных целей и не являются финансовой или инвестиционной рекомендацией.
*Компания Meta признана экстремистской и запрещена на территории РФ.
#АлександрСоколовский #экономика#МироваяЭкономика #стагфляция #инфляция #деньги #доходы #зарплаты
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AI Will Clarify What Asset Managers Are Paid For
The third function is also the hardest to automate: accountability.
AI can generate hypotheses, challenge assumptions, and stress-test investment cases. It cannot assume fiduciary responsibility or explain a disappointing outcome to a client.
After 25 years in asset management, I can say that those conversations define the profession. During one discussion following several years of underperformance, what mattered was not model output but explaining which assumptions had failed, when they failed, and why we chose not to abandon the investment process under pressure.
AI can prepare that conversation. It cannot replace it.
Current industry practice reflects this reality. A 2024 Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority survey found that three-quarters of responding UK financial firms already use AI, yet only 2% of reported use cases involve fully autonomous decision-making.
AI does not eliminate accountability. It changes how accountability is organized.
- Who validates models and data quality?
- Who determines whether an AI-generated signal is investable?
- Who manages dependence on external models and vendors?
- Who explains the resulting decisions to clients?
These remain investment decisions, not merely compliance exercises.
Regulators and practitioners are moving in the same direction. IOSCO’s AI/ML guidance emphasizes senior accountability, testing and monitoring, skills, third-party controls, disclosure, and data quality. The CFA Research Foundation volume AI in Asset Management, edited by Joseph Simonian, frames the issue more broadly: AI should strengthen, not supplant, human judgment, trust, and fiduciary responsibility. Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny model trust as central to investment delegation.
In an AI-driven investment process, trust is earned through decisions clients can challenge and revisit.
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Business Owners Have a New Security Problem: AI Agents With Keys to Company Secrets
Cybersecurity experts raise the alarm about AI agents and hacking vulnerabilities.
Is CoreWeave Stock a Buy After a Co-Founder’s Latest Insider Filing? Here’s What to Know
Brannin McBee, the chief development officer of the firm, reported a sale of 197,000 shares of CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV -0.97%) on August 10 for approximately $17.7 million, according to an SEC Form 4 filing, marking one of two such filings that day.
Transaction summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares sold | ~197,000 |
| Shares sold (directly held) | 144,000 |
| Shares sold (indirectly held) | 53,000 |
| Transaction value | $17.7 million |
Transaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($89.73); post-transaction value based on the August 10 market close ($88.19).
Key questions
- What was the structural nature of this disposition?
McBee exercised 197,000 options and immediately sold the resulting shares, a move that fully liquidated his indirect holdings previously held across multiple trust entities and his spouse’s account. - How does this impact the officer’s total economic exposure?
McBee maintains substantial exposure through 5.6 million direct and 5.5 million indirect derivative securities reported in this filing, suggesting his long-term alignment remains high. - What is the recent performance context for the company?
As of the August 10 transaction date, the stock had fallen about 30% over the past year, with the sale occurring at a weighted average price approximately 1.7% above that day’s market close of $88.19. Shares are now priced at about $105.
Company Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share Price (as of market close 2026-08-11) | $90.32 |
| Market Capitalization | $50 billion |
| Revenue (TTM) | $6.2 billion |
| Net Income (TTM) | -$1.6 billion |
Company Snapshot
- CoreWeave operates a specialized cloud computing platform providing high-performance GPU and CPU compute resources, storage solutions, advanced networking capabilities, and fully managed services designed specifically for generative AI and intensive compute workloads.
- The company generates revenue through flexible consumption-based pricing models for virtual servers and bare-metal infrastructure, enabling enterprises to scale compute resources on demand without substantial capital expenditures.
- CoreWeave serves large enterprises and organizations requiring specialized infrastructure for generative AI applications, machine learning workloads, and computationally intensive operations across multiple industry verticals.
CoreWeave operates as a specialized infrastructure-as-a-service provider in the rapidly expanding generative AI compute market, with a TTM revenue base of $6.2 billion and a market capitalization of $50 billion. The company differentiates itself through purpose-built infrastructure optimized for AI workloads, offering enterprises an alternative to hyperscale cloud providers with dedicated GPU and compute resources. Despite current net losses reflecting significant investments in capacity expansion and market penetration, CoreWeave is positioned to capitalize on the structural growth in enterprise AI infrastructure demand.
What this transaction means for investors
Whether CoreWeave is worth buying comes down to a single question, and a co-founder cashing in options doesn’t answer it. McBee exercised 197,000 options for about $17.7 million on August 10, resulting in one of two Form 4 filings that day, yet he still holds a significant number of options across direct and indirect accounts, so his stake in the outcome is essentially untouched.
The bull case for investors is clearly immense growth. Revenue jumped 112% last quarter to $2.6 billion, the contracted backlog runs past $100 billion, and CoreWeave finally posted operating profit ahead of expectations, proof that its spending produces returns at scale. However, the bear case is also important. The company lost $626 million in the same quarter, and it carries roughly $35 billion in debt while leaning on a handful of huge customers to fill its backlog, so the economics remain a bit unproven even as the demand for now does not.
Ultimately, CoreWeave is a bet on execution. If it converts its backlog into cash faster than its debt costs pile up, the growth justifies the price. If it stumbles on capacity or a big customer pulls back, the leverage cuts the other way.
Jonathan Ponciano has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
UWM’s stock slide puts Phoenix Suns owner’s wealth in focus
After a punishing stock slide and a series of setbacks put his mortgage company under new scrutiny, billionaire Mat Ishbia addressed his critics directly.
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“UWM has never been stronger than we are today. Never,” he said in a four-minute video posted to LinkedIn. “From an AI, technology, operations, sales, broker channel — never been stronger. And now stronger from a capital and liquidity perspective. We’ve never been stronger than we are today.”
Ishbia delivered this pep talk during a weekly meeting with UWM Holdings Corp.’s clients and sales team in an attempt to quell any concerns about the resilience of the company. UWM shares fell by as much as 49% on Aug. 6 after
“People are like, oh, the stock, your company’s doing OK?” Ishbia told his audience. “Our company’s doing as good as it’s ever been. We’re great.”
But the stock rout and the Oaktree deal cloud the picture for Ishbia, who owns nearly 80% of UWM’s equity directly and through a family holding company. Previously unreported filings show that his brother, Justin Ishbia, pledged his economic interests in his private equity funds to secure loan facilities with JPMorgan Chase & Co. that now total $2.3 billion after an increase last year; that
After taking UWM
Around the same time, Justin Ishbia also posted additional collateral to back the loans, according to a Michigan UCC filing. Justin Ishbia runs Shore Capital Partners, a Chicago-based private equity firm with about $17 billion under management, and is personally worth $4.8 billion. A spokesperson for Shore Capital Partners declined to comment. In 2025, the JPMorgan facility was increased with a fifth loan, bringing the total principal to about $2.3 billion.
Since its peak, Mat Ishbia’s fortune, which is largely tied to his company’s share price, has fallen by more than half to $6.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
“JPMorgan did not request additional collateral from Mat Ishbia after last week’s selloff,” a spokesperson for the bank said in a statement.
Since UWM made its public debut, its quarterly 10-cent dividend has been one of Ishbia’s most consistent sources of cash. SFS Corp., the holding vehicle through which Ishbia and his family own most of their shares, received nearly $6.3 billion in distributions between 2020 and 2025, according to filings, mostly from dividend payouts.
The company used the equivalent of more than 96% of its net income to fund those distributions, leaving it with little cushion, and total equity fell even as it racked up profits. Alongside Oaktree’s new capital investment, those dividends will cease, with much of that redirected to pay the 10% coupon on newly-issued preferred shares.
Oaktree bought $1.5 billion of the preferreds. Ishbia bought $150 million. The financing came about after UWM lost roughly $600 million on an interest rate hedge tied to its
Ishbia also pledged the rights to payments he receives through a tax receivable agreement with UWM, according to a Michigan UCC filing dated Aug. 5. As of June 30, UWM reported a TRA liability of $280 million, according to its most recent quarterly report.
As for the Suns, which were profitable before Ishbia purchased the team, the franchise lost money in his first season as controlling owner, according to court documents. Any future dividends or distributions, as well as any potential proceeds from a bankruptcy or insolvency, have been pledged as collateral to secure a loan from JPMorgan, according to a Delaware UCC filing.
It’s unclear from filings whether the Suns’ interests were linked to the lending facilities backed by Ishbia’s UWM shares. A spokesperson for the Suns didn’t respond to a request for comment.
A spokesperson for UWM said none of this poses a liquidity issue for Ishbia. “Trying to use this deal to suggest Mat’s financial situation with UWM or the Phoenix Suns is threatened is clearly ignoring the facts,” the spokesperson said in a statement, noting that Mat has personally committed multiple hundreds of millions of dollars alongside Oaktree. Oaktree and Ishbia are backstopping a $400 million UWM common-stock offering expected to come later this year.
“Our agreements with JPMorgan are credit facilities and the outstanding balance on those facilities is so low they could be paid off anytime,” the spokesperson said. “They are immaterial and the rhetoric around them is nonsense.”
Ishbia is also in the process of buying out the remaining Suns and Mercury shareholders, the spokesperson said.
The move would follow a dramatic change of hands at another NBA team. Billionaire Mark Walter agreed to sell the Los Angeles Lakers for a record-breaking $12.5 billion to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger on Wednesday, part of a broader effort to raise money to pay down loans to his insurers.
In a ratings action issued last Friday, Fitch Ratings downgraded UWM and said that it was treating the preferred shares as debt. It also pointed to “elevated key person risk” at UWM because of Ishbia’s “significant control” over the company. On Wednesday, Moody’s also downgraded its outlook on UWM’s debt, to negative from stable.
Embrace the spotlight, Ishbia told his audience this week, saying the attention on his company affirms its relevance. “If in three years or four years and we have a bad month or a bad quarter or a bad year, and they don’t talk about us, that’s what I’m scared about, because it means we’re not relevant,” he said. “Everyone wants us to fail. And the best part is, they ain’t gonna get what they want.”
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Harvard fund discloses $2.2 billion stake in Musk’s SpaceX
Harvard Management Co. disclosed a $2.2 billion stake in SpaceX, showing how the university’s endowment has profited from an early bet on Elon Musk’s giant rocket company.
Harvard reported it holds the position in its 13F filing on Friday, revealing it’s one of the largest endowment holders of the stock. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is the largest single stock disclosed in the filing, which shows Harvard held $4.3 billion of US equities. Harvard oversaw $57 billion as of June 2025, the latest publicly available figure.
SpaceX’s record-breaking initial public offering in June has boosted returns for college endowments that made investments through venture capital firms, sometimes more than a decade ago.
Others that have profited include the University of California’s investment arm, which reported in a filing this week a position worth about $1 billion, as well as the University of North Carolina and Washington University in St. Louis.
Harvard’s holdings potentially reflect both directly owned shares and distribution from private funds. Patrick McKiernan, a spokesman for Harvard Management, declined to comment on individual investments.
The gains from SpaceX, which currently has a more than $1.8 trillion valuation, come at time when US university finances are constrained from threats to federal research funding, a smaller pool of college-age students due to demographic changes and muted returns from private equity. Endowment funds with more than $500 million returned a median of 18.9% before fees in the year ended in June, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service.
SpaceX shares have fluctuated since the company debuted at $135. Shares fell 0.9% on Friday, closing at $140.
Money managers overseeing more than $100 million in US equities have to file a 13F form within 45 days of the end of each quarter to list their holdings in stocks that trade on US exchanges.
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Ireland Launches National AML Strategy With Key Focus On Crypto Assets
Ireland has unveiled its inaugural national strategy to combat money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing, with a particular emphasis on tightening controls within the cryptocurrency sector.
Announced on 13 August 2026 by Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris, the National Anti-Money Laundering, Countering Financing of Terrorism and Countering Proliferation Financing Strategy represents one of the most substantial upgrades to the country’s financial crime defences in recent years.
The document builds directly on the 2026 National Risk Assessment and an accompanying priority action plan released earlier in the year.
Those earlier reviews had already flagged the growing misuse of digital assets as a notable vulnerability, citing sophisticated fraud schemes, sanctions evasion risks, and the challenges posed by evolving technology.
The new strategy translates those findings into a coordinated, multi-year plan running through 2030.
Five core priorities guide the approach: improving coordination across government agencies; deepening understanding of emerging risks; reinforcing the regulatory framework; enhancing skills and resources in both the public and private sectors; and strengthening collaboration with international partners.
Among the concrete measures, authorities are prioritising reforms that make it harder for criminals to move illicit funds through crypto-assets without detection.
A key element involves completing the implementation of the European Union’s Transfer of Funds Regulation.
This extends anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing rules to crypto-asset transfers by requiring information about the sender and recipient to travel with each transaction—the so-called “Travel Rule.”
Most of these provisions are already in place.
The remaining steps impose additional duties on crypto-asset service providers, including more rigorous checks on transfers involving private or self-hosted wallets and heightened due diligence when dealing with firms based outside the European Union.
These changes aim to increase transparency and reduce opportunities for anonymous movement of criminal proceeds.
The strategy also addresses related vulnerabilities.
It calls for greater transparency in company ownership structures, new disclosure requirements for limited partnerships and other higher-risk vehicles, and stronger oversight of sectors such as gambling.
Intelligence sharing between An Garda Síochána, the Revenue Commissioners, the Financial Intelligence Unit, the Criminal Assets Bureau, the Central Bank of Ireland and financial institutions will be expanded.
Modernised analytical tools will help identify cyber-enabled fraud and other emerging threats more effectively.
Minister Harris stressed that financial crime inflicts genuine damage on individuals, families and communities.
He noted that organised groups increasingly exploit new technologies and complex cross-border networks, including crypto-assets, to conceal the origins of their profits.
The strategy, he said, sends a clear signal that Ireland will not serve as a safe haven for laundering criminal funds, while protecting the country’s reputation as a secure place to conduct legitimate business.
Implementation is already under way through cooperation among government departments, law enforcement, regulators and the private sector.
The reforms also support Ireland’s preparations for its next mutual evaluation by the Financial Action Task Force, the global standard-setter in this field. By focusing resources on higher-risk areas such as digital assets and by aligning fully with evolving European rules, the strategy seeks to keep Ireland’s defences current against an increasingly sophisticated threat landscape.