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Pennymac, UWM, loanDepot lag in RMBS issuance as Rocket grabs share


Pennymac, loanDepot and United Wholesale Mortgage produced third-quarter agency mortgage-backed securities issuance that “screen[s] furthest below our estimates,” while Onity and Rocket look set to come in above expectations, a BTIG report found.

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For the independent mortgage bankers BTIG covers, agency MBS issuance implies origination volumes 9% below the firm’s third-quarter expectations and 14% below the consensus, according to the latest Mortgage Originators report, dated Oct. 2. BTIG’s third-quarter volume estimates are 4% below consensus.

Funded mortgage volumes since the start of 2021 have had a strong correlation with MBS issuance for the companies BTIG covers.

“Bouts of interest rate volatility pose the biggest risk to this correlation given the timing differences between the funding of loans and the issuance of MBS,” wrote Douglas Harter, an analyst at BTIG.

Both Pennymac and UWM are going after higher balance loans having already raised their conforming limits in advance of the official announcement by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Pennymac lost about 500 basis points of market share in the correspondent channel. However, its share “appears to have stabilized in the low double digits following a steep decline in July,” Harter said. “The correspondent channel (for the industry) was down 9% in the third quarter, slightly above the 10% decline in total industry volume.”

At loanDepot, a shift toward home equity lending may be masking some of its production.

“We would note that HELOCs, which are not captured in agency MBS issuance, are becoming a bigger part of volume for loanDepot and could be driving some of the underperformance in MBS issuance data,” the report said. “When compared to our estimate of lock volumes (which doesn’t include HELOC volume), the MBS issuance volume implies approximately 3% lower volumes than our estimate.”

On the other hand, it looks like Onity and Rocket will come in above BTIG’s estimates.

Harter sees Rocket’s ability to get purchase business in the direct-to-consumer channel as the most impactful item for the company’s stock valuation multiple.

Rocket reported a 10.5% market share of retail purchase MBS issuance during September, which was up 110 basis points from August. For the full quarter, this ended at 10%, up 70 basis points versus three months prior.

“Pro forma for the Mr. Cooper acquisition, Rocket’s retail purchase share has been in the high-single-digit to low-double-digit range over the past few years,” BTIG pointed out.

Industry-wide slowdown

Agency mortgage-backed securities issuance was down 4% in September, and given where interest rates have been heading, the rest of the year is likely to see bigger drop-offs, a BTIG report warned.

The latest Mortgage Originators report, dated Oct. 2, also pointed out on the non-agency side, non-qualified mortgage issuance was down 18% for the just-ended third quarter versus the prior period. But it was still 6% higher than one year ago.

Separate data from Bank of America Securities noted this already is the best year ever for non-QM issuance, even with more than a full quarter remaining.

Funded mortgage volumes since the start of 2021 have had a strong correlation with MBS issuance for the company’s BTIG covers.

“Bouts of interest rate volatility pose the biggest risk to this correlation given the timing differences between the funding of loans and the issuance of MBS,” wrote Douglas Harter, an analyst at BTIG.

The 10-year Treasury, driven by the latest inflation data and a weak jobs report, has backed off the 5.34% mark (the highest since 2002) it touched on Wednesday and but as of noon on Friady it was 3 basis points above its Thursday close at 5.27%,. As a result, mortgage rates have remained above 7%.

On the agency side, third quarter issuance was “modestly below” the origination activity average predictions of the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae of an 8% decline.

“The near-term environment remains challenging for origination volumes given the combination of elevated mortgage rates pressuring volumes and typical seasonal slowdown in home buying activity,” Harter said.

Originations for the rest of the year

The BTIG volume forecasts for this year were cut to $1.395 trillion purchase and $629 billion refinance in the latest report from $1.42 trillion and $700 billion respectively on Sept. 8. The Sept. 25 report, which unlike the other two, adds the September Fannie Mae and MBA reports as sources, had $1.401 trillion and $659 billion.

Harter also pushed down his forecasts for 2027 to $1.455 trillion and $410 billion. For 2028, is now $1.513 trillion and $604 billion.

Non-agency issuance in the third quarter

On the non-agency side, third quarter non-QM issuance totaled $24.3 billion, down 18% from the prior quarter, but up 6% over a year ago.

Home equity issuance (closed-end seconds, HELOCs and home equity investment) totaled $7.9 billion, which was up 1% versus the second quarter and down 6% from a year ago.

Rate volatility pushed non-QM credit spreads wider. Using Annaly as a proxy because of its issuance volume, the spreads on the tranches ranging from AAA down to BBB widened between 10 and 15 basis points in the most recent deal; for the quarter they were 10 basis points to 20 basis points wider.



'He Wants Actions, Not Speeches': Nepal Finance Minister On PM Balendra Shah



What is Nepal’s youngest serving Prime Minister Balendra Shah really like behind the scenes? Finance Minister Dr. Swarnim Wagle offers a rare glimpse into the young leader’s working style, his social-media-driven politics, engineering mindset and insistence on asking one key question: “What does the law say?”

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How Much Should a House Hack Make in 2027? (Rookie Reply)


Can the numbers on your house hack still work when your tenant’s rent doesn’t come close to covering the mortgage? And if it won’t cash flow, how much should a house hack actually make in 2027? Today, we’re uncovering the hidden benefits and forgotten expenses that change the math!

Welcome back to another Rookie Reply! Today, we’re answering three questions most house hackers have asked at some point. After running the numbers, one investor would still be paying over $2,000 a month out of pocket. Is house hacking a thing of the past in expensive markets? Not quite! We’ll redefine a “winning” house hack and share ways to squeeze more income out of the same property with investing strategies like renting by the room, mid-term rentals, or what we’re calling the “mega house hack.”

Another investor looking to house hack is getting wildly different advice about what cash-on-cash return to expect. We’ll show you why there’s not one “right” number, what to weigh besides cash flow, and how a tighter buy box reveals what a deal can really earn. Plus, we settle what “break-even” really means and share the tools that ensure you never miss an expense.

Don’t let imperfect numbers talk you out of a good first house hack, or into a bad one! By the end of this episode, you’ll know how to run your numbers the right way and spot a great deal you might have passed on otherwise.

Ashley:
Today’s rookie reply is about a question almost every beginner has. When the numbers are not perfect, how do you know if the deal still makes sense? A house hack might not cover the full mortgage. A rental might only break even and return expectations can get confusing fast.

Tony:
Today’s questions come from the BiggerPockets forums and we have someone trying to house hack in a really expensive market. We have a rookie asking what does breakeven really mean? And a first time house hacker wondering what returns to expect in today’s…

Ashley:
This is the Real Estate Rookie Podcast. I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony J. Robinson. And with that, let’s get into today’s first question. So our first question today comes from Dominic, and Dominic says, “House hacking is an amazing way to get into real estate and the most promoted benefit is if the tenant pays the mortgage or most of it while there’s also a low down payment. But I live in Portland, Oregon and a duplex goes for 450,000 bucks to sometimes quite a bit higher. After doing some numbers, I would still be paying a hefty portion of the mortgage even after taking into account market rent on the other half. An example, the purchase price is 450,000. One unit is being rented for about 1,150 and the other unit I would be living in. The monthly mortgage payment is 3,321 with 5% down, which means I will be paying 2,171, about 2,200 bucks. This doesn’t even take into account repairs, et cetera.
This defeats the entire goal of house hacking. So I was wondering how house hacking is being done when property prices are so high. Is house hacking a thing of the past in these markets or is there some tactic that I’m missing? Dominic, great question. And I don’t think, Nash, I’m sure you’d agree, I don’t think house hacking is a thing of the past. I think we just need to redefine what a successful house hack actually means. And yes, when prices were much lower and interest rates were much lower, maybe you could get a bunch of cash flow on top of your house hack. But I think today the bigger question is, can you either A, subsidize the costs that you’re already spending to live somewhere or B, even if you’re paying the same, can you at least have that same payment go towards an asset that you own as opposed to paying some other landlord’s mortgage balance down?
So for you, you said that your mortgage would be about 3,300 bucks and you’d be paying about 2,100, 2,200 bucks per month to offset the rest of the mortgage. So the question is, if you were to go rent a comparable place somewhere else, would you be spending more or less than 2,200? And if you would also be spending 2,200 bucks somewhere else, still kind of a win, right? You’re spending the same amount that you’re already spending, but it’s going towards something that you own. So I think just redefining what a successful house act actually means is probably what I focus on.

Ashley:
And then on top of that, besides just paying towards your own mortgage payment and owning the asset, you’re getting other advantages like the tax advantages of owning real estate compared to renting a property. You’re having your tenant pay down part of your mortgage and you’re getting appreciation in the property. Plus you own the property so you can kind of make the rules and do with it what you want to. So there’s other factors to think about instead of just your housing cost also. But most of the time you can decrease your living costs or even if you can’t decrease them and they’re staying the same, there’s all these other things that come into play that make it such a benefit to you as an investor, not only financially, but also kind of for your life too.

Tony:
I think the other piece that I’d add also is, is there a way, Dominic, for you to increase the revenue potential on this property? Because if you said like, “Hey, the one unit’s being rented for 1,150, is there a way to increase that 1,150 to some other number? And maybe instead of just doing a traditional long-term rental, can you rent by the room?” If it’s a three bedroom or a two bedroom duplex on the other side, rent out both rooms individually. Can you go from 1,150 to maybe 1,600 or 1,900, whatever it may be. Can you switch the strategy? Can you furnish the place and maybe do a midterm rental where now instead of 1,150, maybe you’re covering your entire mortgage with just the rents from that other side being a midterm rental or a short term rental, whatever it may be. So I think maybe also getting creative on the ways to increase the top line revenue on the other side.
And then even on your own side, right? It’s like maybe – We got to

Ashley:
Come up with a name for this, like a super house hack

Tony:
Or something. The super house hack. Yeah, the mega house hack, right? But you stack these strategies together. So it’s like even on the side that you’re living in, you didn’t mention, but maybe you’re a single guy, can you rent out the other rooms on the side with you? So you’re midterm renting the other side, making three grand a month, then you’re renting out the other rooms on your side. So you’re also generating revenue and now you’re at a point where you’re not only covering your own living expenses, maybe you’re making some additional on top of it as well.

Ashley:
The last piece that I’ll add to this too is if it does need some renovation so that you can increase the rents is that if you are living in the property, opposed to you living somewhere else and having a vacant unit and you’re renovating, if you can live in the property while it’s being renovated, maybe you’re doing renovations slowly over time, overall that is going to decrease your expenses because you’re not paying for a place for you to live and you’re not holding onto a property that has a vacant unit that’s not bringing in any income. So if you take out your living expense and you put yourself into that duplex in that unit, you just eliminated a big expense for yourself by not having to have a vacant unit sitting. And then you can go ahead and do it over time, YouTube university or get contractors in there to be able to renovate it and then you can decide to move out and then you have a renovated unit that you can rent for a lot more than that 1,150.
Then you could even switch sides and go to the other side and do the same thing too if you wanted.

Tony:
Ash, I want your opinion because as stated right now, he’s saying like, hey, 1,150 on one side. So if you rent out both sides, what is that? 2,300 and the mortgage is 3,300. So it’s a net 1,000 negative if he were to run out both sides. To me, I’d say I probably would move forward with that specific deal because once you do move out, I would hope that it’s at least paying for itself and paying for itself mean it’s covering all expenses. So I would say leverage some different strategies to get that revenue ceiling up. But would you agree with that?

Ashley:
Yes, I would absolutely. And that’s why you got to have an estimate, a timeframe of when you would actually move out of the property. So if this is something you only want to be there for a year, you’re probably not going to, unless you’re doing a big renovation, adding a ton of value, you’re probably not going to be able to make up for that thousand dollar difference. But if you’re planning to live there for some time, you could see an increase in rents, you could see you add some value, there definitely could be room for improvement. So it really depends on the property type, how it sits now, if you have a lot of value that you can add to increase those rents to cover it. But if you’re already planning to move out in a year and you’ll know you’ll be cash flow negative a thousand dollars, then no, I wouldn’t do this deal.
Okay, so coming up, a rookie asks, what about breakeven? What does that actually mean? So we’re going to break it down, which expenses count, which ones the rookies forget and when a breakeven rental can still be a smart first deal. We’ll be right back.
Okay, so Dominic is wrestling with what counts as a win when the cash flow is not obvious. Our next question zooms in on that same idea. What do investors really mean when they say a property breaks even? And this question comes from a BiggerPockets Forum member. So while listening to the podcast, I keep hearing people say you are doing well if you are breaking even on a long-term rental year one with the way rent to price ratios are in most areas. Can anyone weigh in on what they’re including in breakeven? Is it just your mortgage, property taxes, insurance versus the rent you bring in? Or are they also including a reserve for stuff that breaks capital expenses, et cetera, in their calculation? Thanks for help with the rookie question. So we can’t tell you what people are including because investors are probably including lots of different things where some are probably just including their mortgage payment, their insurance and their property taxes and saying, my rent is 2,000, my mortgage payment is 2,000 and I break even.
For us, that is not breakeven. Breakeven includes all of your fixed, all of your variable expenses. So it does include the repairs and maintenance. It does includes the capital improvements. It does include any utilities you’re paying. It does include the person you’re paying to cut the grass in the summer. So that’s end of the day, bottom line, income minus all of your expenses. If you are breaking even and there’s no surplus and you’re not negative, that’s what we consider a true breakeven number.

Tony:
And I think just to also define, because there’s the gross revenue generated by your rental and there’s the net income at the end of the day. And in reality, when we talk about breakeven, it means that your gross income minus all expenses, your net income becomes zero. But your gross income is just like the rent that the property produces. So in a long-term rental is whatever your tenant is paying you. In a short-term rental, it’s the combination of the revenue generated from all of your reservations. Same for a midterm rental, it’s the net coming from your leases. And then your expenses, to your point, ash are all the things we’re paying on. And then after that, after we take account all of those expenses, that is your net income.
But how do you make sure that you’re accounting for the right thing? My best advice is just to use the BiggerPockets calculator when you’re analyzing a deal because it’s going to force you to actually make sure that you’re accounting for everything. And Ash and I, we both talked about how early in our careers, that’s how we gained confidence in actually analyzing properties was going through the BiggerPockets calculators because it literally forces you. There’s a field that says, “Oh, hey, you forgot this.” Or, “Hey, if you’re not sure how to calculate this, here’s a good rule of thumb to make sure that you incorporate this.” So I think rather than guessing, just go to biggerpockets.com/calculators, take a deal you’re thinking about, plug it into that tool, and you’ll get a really good idea of what breakeven actually means for that specific property. All right. After the break, a Pittsburgh rookie is trying to house hack in today’s rate environment and is getting wildly different advice about returns.
So we’ll talk about what expectations actually make sense today. All right. Our last question comes from Ian Zuber and he’s looking for an FHA financed multifamily house hack in Pittsburgh and is just trying to figure out what return target is realistic in today’s market. So Ian says, “I’m a new real estate investor and after a few books and hours of YouTube videos, I’m knee deep in my search for an FHA financed multifamily househack in the greater Pittsburgh area with interest rates as high as they are and home prices elevated as well. I’m not sure where my expectation should be as far as cash on cash return and the total ROI percentages. I’m interested to hear what more experienced investors have to say. I’ve heard some people say that cash flow isn’t necessary while you’re living in the home and to analyze a property once you move out and it’s fully rented.
I’ve heard from others that cash flow is essential and they expect a 10% cash on cash return and over 25% of total ROI or else it’s not worth it. I think the viewpoints of my fellow investors will help me come to my own conclusions about what I can and cannot accept in a deal.” So please share your thoughts. I mean, we just hashed out in the first question about house hacking. Cash flow and what’s a good house hack versus a bad house hack? So we won’t rehash that here again. But the other part is what is a good return? First let me say every market’s going to vary wildly. Ashley’s market in Buffalo is going to be very different than here in Southern California. It’s going to be very different than the Midwest and the Southeast. Then name the part of the country, every market is going to operate in a slightly different fashion.
So we can’t say that a good return in Buffalo is also a good return in Pittsburgh and that the kind of return that Ashley expects may be completely unreasonable in Pittsburgh and vice versa. So I think the first thing is we just have to understand that every market has its own return that is reasonable. Now the bigger thing for you, Ian, is asking yourself, “Well, what kind of return do I want and what kind of return do I want on my money? What kind of deal is it that I’m actually looking for?” Set your own goals and expectations first. And then from there we just want to see does Pittsburgh actually align with what those projected goals and expectations might actually be? And if you find that, okay, after analyzing a few deals, Pittsburgh is terrible. I want a 10% return, but everything in Pittsburgh is like a 2%.
Well, then you’ve got your answer, but I think we can’t take this big national number. Let’s underwrite Pittsburgh specifically to get to that answer.

Ashley:
Yeah. And I got two things to say about this. First is what’s a good return to you and what’s a good return to somebody else could mean very different things. So this capital that you would invest in this deal, what else would you do with that money and what other type of return could you get? If you have another opportunity where you can make a 25% cash on cash return and you’re analyzing Pittsburgh deals and they’re not getting anywhere near that, maybe you need to take that other opportunity or maybe a different market you want to look at. So I think also understanding what makes it worth your while. Then the other thing is actually comparing the other elements that come with real estate investing. So you have the cash flow of the property, but there’s also the management of it. There’s your time commitment into it.
So how is the acquisition going to be on this deal? Is it going to be easy? Do you need to get permits for things? Do you need to do a heavy rehab that’s going to take time?
Is this in a high crime area where you’re going to need to put a security system in for the tenants? What are some of the headaches and the time commitment and the problems you will have to solve to be able to get that return? Is this just a set it and forget it duplex where you will not have to do anything and it is turnkey? So think about that. Think about other things that don’t have a monetary value to actually calculate into the cash on cash return, such as your time is a really big one. The next thing I want you to look at as in what are the other advantages to real estate? So even though we can say your cash on cash return is this, it’s not calculating all of the benefits that you can get from real estate such as the tax advantages.
If you are a high income W-2 earner and you have a stay at home spouse and now you’re going to buy this property, there are tax laws out there where you can get a huge, huge deduction in your taxes just from owning this one piece of real estate, which could make this a way better benefit for you than just thinking about the cash on cash return.

Tony:
I think the only other thing that I’d add is that Ian, you’ve got a decent buy box here, right? You said I want an FHA financed multifamily house act in the greater Pittsburgh area, which is a great starting point because a lot of other Rickies are just like, I want a deal. So this is more specific than something as open as I want a deal. But I think I would actually challenge you to refine the buy box even further. And once you do that, I think you have a better idea of what the actual cash on cash returns might be. And my approach for building out a buy box is I don’t start by going to look at what’s for sale in a city. I start by researching the supply that’s already active in that market in terms of the rentals, the rental supply in that market.
So go look at all of the other multifamily in that area and maybe you’ll start to see, well man, if I buy a fourplex, my per unit rents are going to be X, so my gross is actually this. If I buy a three unit, my per unit rents are going to be this and my gross is going to be that. So even though the per unit on the two bed is lower, it’s actually a better deal overall because the price of the two bed. So there’s different ways you can skin that same cat, but go do research on the market, understand, hey, what types of multifamily perform the best? Is it a side by side? Is it an updown? Is it a threeplex, a fourplex, a duplex? What type of specific property should I be targeting? Once I have the type of property, what area of town should I be focused in?
Do I need to be on the southeast and in the northwest? Is there a river that goes through Pittsburgh? I feel like there might be a river. Do I need to be close to the river away from the river?What does that look like? Narrow it down to specific zip codes, to specific neighborhoods, construction quality. Are these all high-end finishes or is it more like traditional builder grade? Get really, really clear location, construction quality, architectural styles, and from there you have a much, much better picture of the actual rent potential and then you can do a better job of backing into what your returns might be. So that’s the only thing that I’d end with is just get even more clarity on the buy box.

Ashley:
Today’s episode is about not letting perfect numbers kill a good first deal. If the property improves your housing cost, protects your downside, and it can become a solid rental later, that can be a real win for a rookie investor.

Tony:
But the real key is just knowing what do you mean by good, right? So define breakeven, include reserves and compare the deal to your real alternatives before you pass on it or jump in too fast.

Ashley:
This has been an episode of Real Estate Rookie. I’m Ashley, he’s Tony, and we’ll see you guys next time.

 

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Choice Privileges Now Lets You Share Points With Friends and Family for Free


Choice Privileges Adds Free Points Sharing

Choice Privileges has rolled out a useful new feature that allows members to share points with friends and family for free. There is no transfer fee, making it easier to combine smaller balances into one account for an award redemption. 

For example, if you’re short a few thousand points for an award night, another Choice member can transfer points into your account rather than having you purchase the additional points or waiting until you earn more.

This is a simple but valuable improvement. Free points sharing makes Choice points considerably easier to use across a household, especially when several people have small balances that may not be useful on their own.

Zohran Mamdani says ‘you have to luck out in some big way’ to achieve the American Dream now



New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the American Dream should be a guarantee and not a vague hope, lamenting that it’s now viewed as being less attainable than winning a lottery jackpot.

In an interview on Theo Von’s podcast This Past Weekend, Mamdani warned that if the American Dream is just an ideal that’s out of within reach, then people may start to give up.

The democratic socialist compared it to legendary NYC Mayor Fiorello La Guardia’s observation during the rise of fascism in Europe, saying people turned away from democracy not because they were tired of liberty, but because they were tired of being hungry.

“So if democracy doesn’t mean the better life that it has to, it’ll lose its worth. And the same thing with the American Dream: if it’s something you can only see when you turn on your TV or you hear about that one guy you grew up with who made it, that doesn’t mean enough,” Mamdani said.

That’s why his administration has focused on making housing, child care, and groceries more affordable, he added, calling them the “basic aspects of a good, dignified life.”

Smaller efforts also make a big difference, Mamdani explained, pointing to free child care for a night to give parents a chance to go out or providing free tickets to the opera.

When asked later if he thinks the American Dream is still alive, he replied, “It feels like you have to luck out in some big way. In many ways, I feel like it’s why a lot of people play the lottery. For many, it feels like their only chance. People think that they have better odds playing the lottery than making it in their own life. What does that say about the country that we live in?”

New York City has the added dimension of having plenty of wealth while many others grapple with wages that haven’t kept up with the soaring cost of living, Mamdani noted.

That’s not due to a lack of opportunity. Instead, that opportunity is “being consolidated,” he argued.

While Mamdani has sought to tap some of the city’s wealth with an annual surcharge on luxury, non-primary residential properties, it’s run into some legal setbacks.

Last month, a judge threw out New York’s rollout of its pied-à-terre tax, ordering the city to cancel the notices it sent to property owners and restart the process of deciding who owes the surcharge.

Harnessing some of the city’s wealth is key to making New York more affordable, Mamdani insisted during the podcast interview.

“Because right now it feels like the city is becoming a museum—something a middle-class family can afford to visit once a month, maybe on the weekends. We want people to live here, and there’s more than enough money for everyone to be able to,” he said.

For his part, Mamdani has acknowledged that he is one of the lucky few. When asked on the Fourth of July if he was living the American Dream, he told CNN the “I’m living one of them.”

“I think the beautiful thing about today is it’s a chance to celebrate that the promise of our nation is still true—that promise of opportunity, of freedom, of self determination,” he added. “And to be the mayor of our city today, it’s something more than i could ever ask for.”

Mamdani’s comments come as the affordability crisis has threatened some of the key hallmarks of the American Dream, such as homeownership, a car or two, and kids.

While U.S. households still, on average, believe it can be achieved, their hopes are fading fast while some economists see a “Great Postponement.”

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has also warned the American Dream is in trouble, and has committed the New York-based banking giant to a sweeping multiyear effort to expand economic opportunity across the country.

“The American Dream is alive, but it’s slipping out of reach for too many people—and for future generations,” he said in March. “This slows economic growth, hurts communities, and prevents many people from getting ahead.”

More recently, Dimon has teamed up with Ford CEO Jim Farley, who said America’s skilled-trades shortfall has become too large and too varied by region and occupation.

“Skilled trades are the backbone of our country and American manufacturing, and the backbone of the American Dream,” Farley said last month.



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Record-Low 31% Of Americans Say College Is “Very Important,” Gallup Finds


Just 31% of U.S. adults now say a college education is “very important,” according to a new Gallup poll. That is four points below last year’s 35% reading, the previous record low, and less than half the 70% who said the same in 2013.

The result now sits slightly below Gallup’s 1978 starting point of 36%, adding to the long-running debate over whether college is still worth the investment.

Skepticism on the value of college has also grown just as fast. The share calling college “not too important” climbed from 6% in 2013 to 29% today, while “fairly important” rose from 23% to 39%. In 2013, a 64-point gap separated the “very important” and “not too important” camps, and that gap has shrunk to two points, a sharp reversal for families weighing what a college degree actually returns.

A chart from Gallup highlighting the importance of college education to Americans from 1970 through 2026.

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Why It Matters

The price of college appears to be driving much of the shift. Gallup pointed to a recent Lumina Foundation-Gallup survey in which only 12% of U.S. adults called a four-year college education affordable. That view aligns with the rising average cost of college and a national student loan balance that has reached $1.86 trillion.

The drop is not confined to one group. Comparing combined June 2019 polls with combined August 2025 and 2026 polls, Gallup found double-digit declines among women, middle-aged and older adults, Democrats, Black and Hispanic adults, and college graduates, all groups where a majority called college very important in 2019.

For parents trying to navigate the cost of college before a child enrolls, the doubt on value now reaches nearly every household type.

The Disconnect With People Closest To College

The Gallup poll did flag a gap between public opinion and personal experience. The Lumina Foundation-Gallup State of Higher Education Study found that 73% of adults without a degree or credential say earning a two-year or four-year degree is at least as important as it was 20 years ago, along with 69% of college graduates.

Most parents also say they would prefer their child pursue a two- or four-year degree right after high school, which suggests Americans question college in the abstract while still planning on it for their own kids, a split that shows up in the case for and against a degree as a good investment.

How This Connects

The importance numbers line up with Gallup’s July reading on trust, when confidence in higher education fell to 38%, down from 57% in 2015.

They also land as federal policy pushes more options outside the four-year track, including new Workforce Pell Grants for short-term job training programs and federal student loan changes rolling out from 2026 through 2028.

What’s Next

The open question is whether attitudes turn into behavior. Watch fall 2026 enrollment counts, FAFSA filing volume for the 2027-28 school year, and early uptake of Workforce Pell, especially as borrowers adjust to what’s changing for student loans in 2026.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post Record-Low 31% Of Americans Say College Is “Very Important,” Gallup Finds appeared first on The College Investor.

Could mortgage rates hit 9%? One economist lays out the scenario


The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.5% as Hepp spoke, a level that reflects the sustained pressure long-term Treasury yields have placed on home lending costs throughout this rate cycle.

That pressure stems from structural forces that Fed policy cannot easily reverse: expanding fiscal deficits, rising term premiums, shifting global capital flows, and evolving investor appetite for US debt.

As those dynamics have taken hold, bond yields have pushed mortgage rates higher in ways that have surprised many in the industry, reinforcing Hepp’s point about where brokers and their clients need to focus their attention.

What it would actually take to reach 9%

Hepp addressed the headline scenario — 9% mortgage rates — but was direct about what it would require.

“It’s possible that mortgage rates go up to 9%, but it’s really not our base case scenario,” she said. “It’s more of a severe scenario in which Treasuries go up to 6% or 7% and that would be really triggered by several major disruptions.”

FlyDubai co-pilot used cockpit’s crash axe to try seizing control of flight and was barred by Oman



The co-pilot accused of attacking the captain of an Israel-bound flight with an axe and trying to seize the controls was an Omani national who had been barred from flying on his country’s airline because of concerns about extremist views, officials said Saturday.

The co-pilot has been identified as Hamam al-Hammami, according to three people with knowledge of the situation, including a Gulf and a Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

The United Arab Emirates, which is leading the investigation, said the co-pilot attacked with the cockpit’s crash axe and tried to take control of the plummeting plane in a “terrorist attack” Wednesday. His actions nearly crashed the flight with 182 people on board before passengers and others rushed in and subdued him.

The new details raised questions about how thoroughly FlyDubai vets potential employees, and how the co-pilot’s presence on a flight filled with Israeli passengers got past Israel’s strict security protocols.

Israel has said it has agreements with foreign carriers to keep pilots of nations without diplomatic ties from flying there. Israel and Oman don’t have formal diplomatic relations. The UAE government has earned a reputation for effective measures against extremist activities but has bristled in the past over criticism of security lapses.

The incident occurred at a sensitive time for Israel, a week before the anniversary of the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that sparked the war in Gaza. It also came weeks before a highly contentious election in which security, and Oct. 7 security failures, have been central issues.

FlyDubai hired the co-pilot after Oman Air barred him

Separately, a regional official and a person familiar with the matter said the co-pilot had been barred from flying by Oman over concerns that he had adopted extremist views. The official said he was moved to an administrative job at Oman Air. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation. They gave no details about the alleged extremist views.

The co-pilot was later hired by UAE-based airline FlyDubai, the person said. It wasn’t immediately clear to what extent the co-pilot was vetted. The Gulf diplomat said he had undergone standard security checks before being hired, but it appears that the checks focused on whether he had been convicted of criminal charges and didn’t go deeper into examining his background for potential signs of radicalization.

The regional official also said security agencies from four regional countries were working to establish the co-pilot’s motives, aided by the United States and other Western governments. The Gulf diplomat said investigations were trying to establish whether the co-pilot acted alone or “has any connection with any extremist groups.”

The regional official said the co-pilot was born in the UAE and his mother is Syrian. He obtained Omani nationality from his father, also an Omani national. The regional official also said the co-pilot had traveled to Syria, with no details.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday said the co-pilot had undergone “Islamist radicalization,” but provided no evidence. There was no immediate comment Saturday from Israel’s government.

A social media account was deleted the day of the flight

A FlyDubai spokesperson said in an email that the airline could not comment beyond its official statements and acknowledged “there are many questions at this stage.” There was no immediate comment from Oman Air, and Oman’s government has said nothing publicly in response to repeated questions since the incident.

In a statement to The Associated Press, Royal Air Maroc, Morocco’s national carrier, said the co-pilot “completed a three-month theoretical training period with the airline in 2025, as part of the pre-employment process. At the end of this training period, his application was not selected for employment.” There were no details.

Keith Coles, a spokesperson for Buckinghamshire New University in England, told the AP that al-Hammami previously completed a distance-learning course in aviation management there but “did not undertake any pilot training.” There were no details on the timing.

Little else was immediately known about the co-pilot’s background. His Instagram account was active until the day of the flight and then deleted.

Captain and passengers have described drama on board

Airlines are generally required to carry crash axes in the cockpit that could be used in an emergency to break open a window to escape or break open a panel to access a fire.

The captain, who was badly wounded, has said he used his remaining energy while being attacked to unlock the cockpit door, allowing people who had noticed alarming sounds to come in, tackle the co-pilot and stabilize the flight while passengers screamed.

The plane made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after a descent so extreme that part of the rudder was torn away, and aviation experts have marveled that it didn’t crash. FlyDubai has said crew traveling on the plane helped to stabilize it and land. They haven’t been publicly identified.

Both the captain and co-pilot were later taken to the UAE. The passengers, most of them Israeli, flew home later Wednesday on a separate plane, to cheers.