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Could mortgage rates hit 9%? One economist lays out the scenario


The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.5% as Hepp spoke, a level that reflects the sustained pressure long-term Treasury yields have placed on home lending costs throughout this rate cycle.

That pressure stems from structural forces that Fed policy cannot easily reverse: expanding fiscal deficits, rising term premiums, shifting global capital flows, and evolving investor appetite for US debt.

As those dynamics have taken hold, bond yields have pushed mortgage rates higher in ways that have surprised many in the industry, reinforcing Hepp’s point about where brokers and their clients need to focus their attention.

What it would actually take to reach 9%

Hepp addressed the headline scenario — 9% mortgage rates — but was direct about what it would require.

“It’s possible that mortgage rates go up to 9%, but it’s really not our base case scenario,” she said. “It’s more of a severe scenario in which Treasuries go up to 6% or 7% and that would be really triggered by several major disruptions.”

FlyDubai co-pilot used cockpit’s crash axe to try seizing control of flight and was barred by Oman



The co-pilot accused of attacking the captain of an Israel-bound flight with an axe and trying to seize the controls was an Omani national who had been barred from flying on his country’s airline because of concerns about extremist views, officials said Saturday.

The co-pilot has been identified as Hamam al-Hammami, according to three people with knowledge of the situation, including a Gulf and a Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

The United Arab Emirates, which is leading the investigation, said the co-pilot attacked with the cockpit’s crash axe and tried to take control of the plummeting plane in a “terrorist attack” Wednesday. His actions nearly crashed the flight with 182 people on board before passengers and others rushed in and subdued him.

The new details raised questions about how thoroughly FlyDubai vets potential employees, and how the co-pilot’s presence on a flight filled with Israeli passengers got past Israel’s strict security protocols.

Israel has said it has agreements with foreign carriers to keep pilots of nations without diplomatic ties from flying there. Israel and Oman don’t have formal diplomatic relations. The UAE government has earned a reputation for effective measures against extremist activities but has bristled in the past over criticism of security lapses.

The incident occurred at a sensitive time for Israel, a week before the anniversary of the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that sparked the war in Gaza. It also came weeks before a highly contentious election in which security, and Oct. 7 security failures, have been central issues.

FlyDubai hired the co-pilot after Oman Air barred him

Separately, a regional official and a person familiar with the matter said the co-pilot had been barred from flying by Oman over concerns that he had adopted extremist views. The official said he was moved to an administrative job at Oman Air. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation. They gave no details about the alleged extremist views.

The co-pilot was later hired by UAE-based airline FlyDubai, the person said. It wasn’t immediately clear to what extent the co-pilot was vetted. The Gulf diplomat said he had undergone standard security checks before being hired, but it appears that the checks focused on whether he had been convicted of criminal charges and didn’t go deeper into examining his background for potential signs of radicalization.

The regional official also said security agencies from four regional countries were working to establish the co-pilot’s motives, aided by the United States and other Western governments. The Gulf diplomat said investigations were trying to establish whether the co-pilot acted alone or “has any connection with any extremist groups.”

The regional official said the co-pilot was born in the UAE and his mother is Syrian. He obtained Omani nationality from his father, also an Omani national. The regional official also said the co-pilot had traveled to Syria, with no details.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday said the co-pilot had undergone “Islamist radicalization,” but provided no evidence. There was no immediate comment Saturday from Israel’s government.

A social media account was deleted the day of the flight

A FlyDubai spokesperson said in an email that the airline could not comment beyond its official statements and acknowledged “there are many questions at this stage.” There was no immediate comment from Oman Air, and Oman’s government has said nothing publicly in response to repeated questions since the incident.

In a statement to The Associated Press, Royal Air Maroc, Morocco’s national carrier, said the co-pilot “completed a three-month theoretical training period with the airline in 2025, as part of the pre-employment process. At the end of this training period, his application was not selected for employment.” There were no details.

Keith Coles, a spokesperson for Buckinghamshire New University in England, told the AP that al-Hammami previously completed a distance-learning course in aviation management there but “did not undertake any pilot training.” There were no details on the timing.

Little else was immediately known about the co-pilot’s background. His Instagram account was active until the day of the flight and then deleted.

Captain and passengers have described drama on board

Airlines are generally required to carry crash axes in the cockpit that could be used in an emergency to break open a window to escape or break open a panel to access a fire.

The captain, who was badly wounded, has said he used his remaining energy while being attacked to unlock the cockpit door, allowing people who had noticed alarming sounds to come in, tackle the co-pilot and stabilize the flight while passengers screamed.

The plane made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after a descent so extreme that part of the rudder was torn away, and aviation experts have marveled that it didn’t crash. FlyDubai has said crew traveling on the plane helped to stabilize it and land. They haven’t been publicly identified.

Both the captain and co-pilot were later taken to the UAE. The passengers, most of them Israeli, flew home later Wednesday on a separate plane, to cheers.

Bank of America Air France/KLM FlyingBlue Card 70,000 Signup Bonus + 100 XP (Plus, Enhanced Benefits)


Update 10/2/26: Available again, but not nearly as good as the recent 100k + 100 XP deal.

Update 7/22/26: Available again, also the 60k + $100 + 100 XP offer available via dummy booking as well. Hat tip to reader Nate. 

The Offer

Direct link to offer | another link

  • Bank of America is offering a sign up bonus on the AirFrance/KLM FlyingBlue credit card of 70,000 miles after $3,000 in spend within the first 90 days from account opening.
  • You’ll also get a bonus of 40 XP after meeting the minimum spend. That’s on top of the standard 60 XP awarded upon approval. Total 100 XP.

They’ve also enhanced a few things about the card, generally. See Card Details, below. 

 

Card Details

  • Annual fee of $89
  • Card earns at the following rates:
    • 3x miles per $1 spent on AirFrance/KLM and Skyteam members
    • NEW: 3x miles per $1 spent on Dining
    • 1.5x miles per $1 spent on all other purchases
  • 60 XP (Experience Points) upon approval
  • 5,000 anniversary bonus miles when you spend at least $50 in your previous card member year
  • Annual bonuses:
    • 20 XP (Experience Points) on card anniversary
    • NEW: an additional 80 XP if you spend $15,000 or more in your previous card member year
    • NEW: Earn an additional 60 XP (totaling 160 XP) on the account anniversary after you spend $25,000 or more on purchases within the anniversary year.
  • No foreign transaction fees
  • Visa Signature benefits

Our Verdict

We saw the same 70k + 100 XP bonus last year. Some people are getting a dummy booking offer of 60k + 100 + $100, so you’ll have to decide which you prefer.

Note also the card is now Visa Signature, they added 3x Dining, and they added/changed the annual XP bonuses for spend. 

If you want to apply for this card I’d recommend reading our post with all the things you should know about Bank of America credit cards first. We’ll add this to our List of Best Current Credit Card Signup Bonuses.

Hat tip to readers Jon and Fifthman

 

Energy Transfer’s 2020 Dividend Cut Still Haunts Some Investors. Here’s Whether That Risk Is Still Real.


“Once bitten, twice shy” is a common idiom that refers to a person who was hurt or disappointed once being much more cautious or hesitant to try something again (it’s the title of a song originally released in 1975 that gained some commercial success when it was covered in 1989).

“Once bitten, twice shy” is also an idiom common to dividend investors, who, after enduring one dividend cut from a company, are reluctant to allocate their hard-earned capital to those shares again.

So it’s understandable that Energy Transfer‘s (ET +1.84%) 2020 payout cut, one largely brought on by the need to conserve capital during the coronavirus pandemic, still weighs on some equity income investors.

Following a 2020 cut, Energy Transfer’s dividend is again growing and safe. Image source: Getty Images.

Investors should remember that with any dividend stock, there’s no such thing as a 100% guarantee against possible cuts. Several now-former Dividend Kings, or firms with dividend-increase streaks of at least 50 years, have been permanently shunned for paring payouts. For investors considering Energy Transfer, the good news is that a 2020 repeat isn’t imminent and appears unlikely in the long term.

Mending dividend fences

Following the October 2020 payout reduction, Energy Transfer’s annualized dividend slumped to $0.61 a share, or half the prior distribution. Fortunately, that didn’t last long. By the fourth quarter of 2021, the midstream company’s annualized dividend had risen to $0.70 per share, marking the beginning of a renewed commitment to payout growth.

Sporting a yield of 6.8%, Energy Transfer now has a streak of dividend increases spanning 19 quarters, or almost five years. No, that doesn’t erase a prior distribution cut, but that run goes a long way toward restoring investors’ confidence that this pipeline operator is committed to payout growth and safety.

Energy Transfer Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(1.84%) $0.37

Current Price

$20.47

Speaking of safety, the data confirm it’s a long shot that Energy Transfer will be a dividend offender again anytime soon. At the end of the second quarter, the energy company had a distributable cash flow (DCF) coverage ratio of 2.2, implying the dividend isn’t a burden. DCF is an important metric because it measures pipeline companies’ cash generation relative to how much of that cash is paid out as dividends.

Investors who are experienced with master limited partnerships (MLPs) such as Energy Transfer know that, at a minimum, coverage ratios below 1 are potential warning signs. In contrast, ratios above one are the place to be. Energy Transfer more than doubles the preferred coverage ratio.

Debt trending the right way

One of the hallmarks of companies that deliver dividend dismay is high debt. Midstream is a capital-intensive industry, so it’s not uncommon for operators to carry liabilities that appear significant. To that end, what matters are the debt ratios.

Specific to Energy Transfer, its desired net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is 4x to 4.5x and stood at 4.4x at the end of last year. It could decline into the high 3s this year before stabilizing in the mid-3s. In plain English, the company’s debt ratio is heading in the right direction.

That’s vital information for investors because not only does Energy Transfer’s debt-reduction progress free up cash to grow the business or pursue deals, but it’s also potentially supportive of better credit ratings and long-term payout growth.

BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION I CLASS 12 I Concept of Management (UNIT2)



BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION I #businessadministration #class12
Nature of Management can be identified through study of management as Science, Art or Profession.
Management as Science
Management as an Art
Management as profession
Concepts and thoughts of management – Classical Approach, Neo Classical Approach, Contemporary Approach.
Classical Approach can be categorized into Scientific Management, Bureaucratic Theory, Administrative Theory
Scientific Management – It means knowing exactly what you want them to do and seeing that they do it in the best & cheapest way according to F.W. Taylor.
Administrative Theory – It constituted of 14 principles which were propounded by Henri Fayol.
Neo Classical Approach – This approach emphasized on human and social aspect of the worker instead of production.

source

Conversations with Frank Fabozzi, Featuring Andrew Chin


12:00 PM ET | 4:00 PM BST

How can investment organizations harness AI to improve decision-making while preserving accountability, governance, and human judgment?

In this episode of Conversations with Frank Fabozzi, CFA, Andrew Chin discusses how AI is reshaping asset management at the institutional level. Drawing on his experience as Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer and former Chief Risk Officer at AllianceBernstein, he explains why successful AI adoption requires more than new tools — it demands a firm-wide strategy, strong governance, and a clear understanding of how human expertise and machine intelligence should work together.



Join this upcoming conversation with Frank Fabozzi, CFA
Register Now!

Key discussion points

  • AI as institutional infrastructure: Why enterprise-wide platforms create more value than isolated use cases.
  • Governance as an enabler of innovation: How risk management principles can accelerate responsible AI adoption.
  • Human judgment and machine intelligence: Defining accountability and decision ownership in AI-assisted investing.
  • Avoiding convergence and automation bias: The risks of relying on the same models, data, and assumptions.
  • The evolving role of portfolio managers: Moving from information gathering to intelligence curation, synthesis, and oversight.
  • AI, uncertainty, and investment resilience: Using AI to frame scenarios, stress test portfolios, and improve decision-making under uncertainty.

Beyond the gas pump: How much oil do we really consume?




Beyond the gas pump: How much oil do we really consume?

Least Desirable Path to Lower Mortgage Rates the Only One Working Right Now


There are several ways to get lower mortgage rates.

You can get inflation down, which is a positive for bonds and thus mortgage-backed securities.

Or you can get a slowing in the economy, driven by fewer job opening, higher unemployment, etc.

Sadly, that latter path seems to be the one that’s “working” at the moment, not the former.

After all, lower mortgage rates don’t do much good if fewer people have jobs.

Weak Jobs Report Provides Some Relief for Mortgage Rates

The monthly jobs report came out this morning and it was a lot weaker than expected.

Only 29,000 jobs were created in the month of September, well below the 84,000 forecast.

And the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, up from 4.1% a month earlier, also above consensus.

That initially led to a little drop in bond yields, which have been on a tear higher for the past month.

But it was short-lived, eventually turning the other way despite the poor numbers.

Still, mortgage rates might print flat to slightly lower today because of it.

Bond yields (and mortgage rates) had a good day yesterday, perhaps front running the jobs report.

There was a mystery drop in bond yields Thursday around 1pm EST after the bellwether 10-year yield crested at 5.34%.

So maybe just maybe the weak jobs report today didn’t have as much gusto as it otherwise would have.

As it stands now, we’re still nearly 10 bps lower than those high levels yesterday, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates are also off their recent highs.

Pressure on Mortgage Rates Is Coming From All Other Angles

Even if the labor data continues to come in weak (this report is but one report), there is upward pressure just about everywhere else you look.

We’ve got out of control government spending, we’ve got lots of bond issuance to fund the war in the Middle East.

We have a second wave of inflation, driven by higher energy prices, diesel shortages, etc.

There’s also the massive AI build out taking place, which creates more bonds that crowds out investors who might otherwise buy Treasuries or MBS.

So even if we get cooler-than-expected jobs numbers, they might not help mortgage rates all that much.

Labor was the focus earlier this year when it seemed like inflation was old news.

But then the war broke out with Iran and inflation once again became the more important issue.

This means not only is the jobs report a bad way to accomplish the goal of lower mortgage rates (since it’s otherwise bad for the housing market).

It’s also just not that effective at the moment. It’s no longer the chief concern for the Fed or the bond market.

[Compare mortgage rates and monthly payments side by side with my mortgage rate calculator.]

Labor Is No Longer the Top Driver of Mortgage Rates (It’s Inflation Again!)

If things got really ugly again on the jobs front, sure, it could take center stage again.

But the limited downside movement after such a poor jobs report tells you it’s all the other things mentioned that matter.

In other words, if you want mortgage rates to go down, you want to root for an end to the war, which would lead to less government spending, lower deficits, and falling energy prices.

Those are all positive things that could bring mortgage rates down without hurting the housing market at the same time.

It’d also be a sustainable path for the housing market, where employment remains healthy but interest rates are no longer cost-prohibitive.

Read on: How are mortgage rates determined?

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Yellow Card, Mastercard, Trulioo Headline This Week’s Product Releases And Partnerships


Yellow Card expands into Canada

Nigeria-founded Yellow Card, a stablecoin infrastructure provider, enables banks, fintechs, and multinational businesses to access US dollars, manage treasury, and move money across borders.

Remita app unifies bank apps

Remita has launched a new, improved app that unifies multiple bank applications on a single platform and enables cross-border payments within Africa.

Trulioo, Fiserv announce integration

Trulioo will bring its person and business verification capabilities to Fiserv, helping its clients streamline onboarding and underwriting across global markets. Trulioo provides person verification capabilities that combine identity data, document verification and fraud signals within configurable workflows.

ConnexPay adds mobile wallet, payment capabilities

The development allows eligible virtual cards to be securely provisioned directly to Apple Wallet and Google Wallet for tap-to-pay purchases, without requiring users to download a separate app.

ConnexPay has also expanded its issuing capabilities with Mastercard Physical Cards, giving businesses another option for payment scenarios where a physical card is preferred or required. Existing virtual card customers can add Physical Cards without replacing or rebuilding their current issuing programs, while maintaining the spend controls, configurable limits, merchant category restrictions, program management tools and rebate opportunities available through ConnexPay.

Kyriba launches data analysis tool

Kyriba has launched Data-as-a-Service, giving customers secure, governed access to structured, analytics-ready treasury data for high-volume analysis, historical reporting and integration with enterprise data environments.

DaaS connects Kyriba data to existing business intelligence tools, reporting and data platforms through standard connectivity including JDBC, OAuth2, and SQL.

Mastercard expands AgentPay

Agent Pay is Mastercard’s agentic payments program. The additions include trust and intelligence services that provide greater context for AI-initiated transactions.

These new services form the intelligence layer of Mastercard’s Agent Pay Trust Framework, which brings together identity, intent, controls, execution and intelligence to establish trust across agentic commerce.

El Salvador launches Sivar, a payments and communications scheme

Under the agreement, Modveon will develop, operate and expand Sivar and its digital services.

Sivar verifies Salvadoran users through their official identity card, the Documento Único de Identidad (DUI). Verified users can post, join live conversations, vote in polls and send funds. Sivar combines identity verification, reporting tools, AI-powered content governance, automated detection and human review to reduce spam, abuse, fraud and misinformation.

 



Mark Ruffalo: Paramount’s Warner Bros. deal ‘Will stifle creativity, weaken free speech’



Mark Ruffalo isn’t giving up his fight against Paramount Skydance’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, even with the deal days from closing.

On Sept. 30, U.S. District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín approved Paramount’s settlement with 12 state attorneys general. That cleared the last legal obstacle to the roughly $111 billion merger. Hours later, Ruffalo took to X to condemn the outcome.

“This merger will stifle creativity, weaken free speech, and cost people their jobs—it is a bad deal for this country and should never have been approved,” Ruffalo wrote on X. “This is an incredibly disappointing outcome for the hundreds of thousands of us who stood up to block it, but it’s also not the end.”

“This grassroots movement isn’t going to fade away and neither is our resolve,” the post continued. “This was never about just one merger: this was about fighting back against corrupt oligarch billionaires trampling the interests of everyday people to line their own pockets. We’re still in that fight. Join us.”

Shortly after the ruling, Paramount announced that Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz will join the company Oct. 5. He will serve as co-CEO of the combined company alongside David Ellison.

Ruffalo’s feud with the Ellisons

Ruffalo has been one of Hollywood’s most vocal opponents of the deal. His criticism has gone beyond Paramount CEO David Ellison to include Ellison’s father, Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison. The elder Ellison personally guaranteed $40.4 billion to back his son’s pursuit of Warner Bros.

The feud escalated on Aug. 21, when Ruffalo shared a video on his Instagram story of Safra Catz. Catz is Oracle’s executive vice chair and former CEO, and she also sits on Paramount’s board. In the clip, taken from a 2024 Israeli-American Council summit, she describes “really profoundly scary technologies” Oracle provided to Israel’s military after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

Ruffalo warned that those technologies “will most likely be merged into one of the largest media conglomerates in the world and one day used on you.” He added, “Look how [Catz] revels in what we now have come to see as a genocide, which was built on an apartheid system of oppression powered by Oracle.”

Paramount said in a statement that it was “troubled when antisemitic tropes are invoked in purported service of a business dispute.” The statement continued: “Words like ‘genocide’ and ‘apartheid,’ applied to a corporate transaction, aren’t just wrong—they’re a bridge too far, and they cheapen the very real suffering those words are meant to describe.” The company urged those involved to “lower the temperature, not raise it” and said it doesn’t tolerate prejudice of any kind.

Ruffalo fired back on X on Aug. 22. “The accusation that I am antisemitic is appalling and fundamentally dishonest,” he wrote. “Criticizing the actions of the Israeli prime minister, a military technology contract, or the executives who supply it is not the same as criticizing Jewish people. This critical and necessary dialogue is then dishonestly framed as being anti-Israel. To be clear, my views come from my own political convictions and should never be interpreted as hostility toward Jewish people, for whom I have deep love and respect.”

He then turned back to the merger. “This merger has real consequences for real people, and for the entire country,” he wrote. “Scrutinizing the Ellisons, including Oracle’s business built on data, surveillance technology and government contracts, and the serious threat to editorial freedom and the loss of a livelihood for thousands of families, is fair and necessary. The $111 billion deal would hand one family control over CNN, HBO and Warner Bros., backed in part by foreign money whose influence on editorial decisions has never been fully explained to the public.”

What’s in the settlement

Paramount reached its settlement on Sept. 21 with the states, led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta. The coalition had sued in July to block the deal outright.

Under the consent decree, the combined company must release at least 30 films in theaters per year for the first two years, then 32 per year for the following three. At least four films a year must be independent productions. Each counted film must stay in theaters for at least 45 days, and wide releases can’t reach subscription streaming for at least 90 days.

The company must also spend at least an additional $300 million a year on U.S. film production above Paramount and Warner Bros.’ combined 2025 levels. It can’t sell or close either studio’s Los Angeles-area lot for at least five years.

Missing the annual film quota costs $30 million for each film the company falls short. That money is split among entertainment-industry health and retirement funds, the Motion Picture & Television Fund and a National Association of Attorneys General fund. A shortfall would also force Paramount to sell its minority stake in Miramax, though the per-film penalty likely carries more weight.

Within 180 days of closing, the company must also create a five-member News Editorial Independence Board of established journalists. The board will set editorial principles for CBS News and CNN and resolve disputes over alleged violations. Colorado and Washington joined the broader settlement but declined to sign off on the editorial board terms.

‘Do not cave’

Before the settlement was announced, Ruffalo publicly pressed Bonta not to make a deal.

“Don’t you dare @AGRobBonta, do not cave,” he wrote on X. “5,670 filmmakers put their necks on the line for you to fight this merger. Another 75,000+ and counting have signed to tell you not to concede in just 3 weeks. You work for the people—the very people who will be hurt if you let this lousy deal filled with empty promises go forward.”

The 5,670 figure appears to refer to the open letter organized by the Block the Merger coalition, signed by thousands of film and TV professionals opposed to the deal. After the settlement terms were announced, five groups in the coalition filed an amicus brief urging the judge to reject what they called a “toothless” settlement: Free Press, the Committee for the First Amendment, the Freedom of the Press Foundation, the Future Film Coalition and the International Documentary Association.

Martínez-Olguín approved the settlement anyway. She wrote that objectors’ hopes for the decree “to reach farther—to achieve more—do not rise to the level of legal violations.”