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APM Financial Fitness: April 2026


Since the overall economic forecast has been affected by the conflict in the Middle East, consumers are searching for new ways to economize. One way to lower discretionary spending is to consider a joy-based budget that makes it possible to enjoy favorite activities. Reviewing a household’s various insurance premiums may provide savings. And home buyers in the Midwest and Sun Belt may have more opportunities to buy than they realize.

Home Financing

Midwest, Sun Belt Are Best Homebuyers Markets for 2026

While the last years have been challenging for home buyers and sellers alike, new opportunities are here. Recently, real estate marketplace Zillow released a report featuring the most buyer-friendly housing markets for this year.

These cities and metro areas:

  • May offer affordable options as home values are currently falling but are expected to see increasing values in the years ahead.

     

  • Share affordable pricing, based on the share of income a median earner would pay to buy a typical home in the area (assuming a 20% down payment).

  • Offer buyers more negotiating leverage. Zillow determined this by reviewing each city’s inventory numbers, including days on market and numbers of price cuts.

Here are the top 10 in ranked order:

1. Indianapolis, Ind.
2. Atlanta, Ga.
3. Charlotte, N.C.
4. Jacksonville, Fla.
5. Oklahoma City, Okla.
6. Memphis, Tenn.
7. Detroit, Mich.
8. Miami, Fla.
9. Tampa, Fla.
10. Pittsburgh, Pa.

Indianapolis came in first with a $283,040 average home value. The share of median household income needed for an average mortgage payment is 26.9%.

Source: essence.com

Insurance

It’s Time to Spring-Clean Your Coverage

You may be busy preparing your taxes or spring-cleaning your home for the months ahead. However, it’s also a good time to review your insurance coverage.

If you were satisfied with your coverage when you first bought your policies, you may have thought it was a “set it and forget it” situation. But insurance should always protect you and your family from worst-case scenarios, and these often change.

As you begin to evaluate your coverage levels, it’s important to account for any changes that may have occurred in the last year. Here are some key examples that may influence each of your policies.

Your auto insurance will need a review if you’ve made any big enhancements to a vehicle, or if you’ve traded in a used car or truck for a new vehicle. You may also have some opportunities for reducing your premiums. For example, your age, or your car’s age, may now qualify you for a lower rate. If you have teenage drivers, their insurance costs will begin to drop when they’re in their early to mid-20s. Taking a defensive driving course may also save you money.

Homeowners insurance coverage can always benefit from an annual review, so you may want to do this just before your annual mortgage “anniversary” rolls around. If you carried out any upgrades during the last few months, such as replacing the roof or remodeling the kitchen, this could affect your coverage. In addition, asking other insurers for a quote may result in better coverage or a lower premium.

Life and health insurance requirements can change for a variety of reasons. For example, if you change jobs or get married, your coverage needs have changed — but you may also have new opportunities for savings. Welcoming a new baby also means you’ll need to review coverage.

After you complete your annual insurance review, you can look forward to the rest of the year knowing that your family and possessions are properly protected. 

Source: magazine.northeast.aaa.com

In the News

Save More, Live Better with Joy-Based Budgeting

Since around 90% of Americans are cutting back on discretionary spending, chances are this is one of your financial strategies. However, you don’t have to give up what you really love doing in your spare time. Instead, consider joy-based budgeting.

Here’s how it works: instead of eliminating all discretionary spending, concentrate on the experiences that make you the happiest. Next, tweak your budget so you can still manage to pursue these. Or, you can reduce expenses in one area of your budget, so you can still afford your favorite activity.

Another benefit of joy budgeting is that it can help stop impulse buys, which can be major budget-wreckers.

A consumer banking analyst explained how joy-based budgeting works.

“It’s about being intentional with your money, so it supports what genuinely makes your life better. Instead of cutting everything out, you first identify the spending that brings you real joy — whether that’s experiences, time with loved ones, or meaningful hobbies — and then build your budget around those priorities while still saving consistently.”

Joy-based budgeting works in several ways. For example, if having dinner out with friends is something you particularly enjoy, you can economize by doing more cooking at home. This can increase your joy budget, so you can handle an occasional restaurant tab.

You can also create a joy budget by deciding what makes you the happiest. Perhaps it’s going to the movies, a favorite hobby, or music lessons. Then, after you’ve subtracted monthly living costs, put at least 20% towards savings and the rest towards the joy budget.

Source: essence.com

Credit and Consumer Finance

Managing Debt: A Two-Part Process

A February forecast from TransUnion, one of the three major credit reporting agencies, anticipates that unsecured personal loans will be the primary driver of new borrowing this year.

While this type of loan can help pay off existing debts, adjusting current and future spending to avoid new debt may be challenging. One reason for this: prices for essentials such as groceries continue to climb. The February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) found that food prices have risen by 3.1% year-over-year, which resulted in more consumers paying for everyday expenses with credit cards.

This has resulted in more shoppers turning to balance transfers and personal loans to consolidate and manage their higher-interest debts. While this can help eliminate debt faster, it’s only half the equation. Unless the existing debt was created by a temporary situation, such as unemployment, a change in spending habits is mandatory.

Credit counselors have found that stress has contributed to overspending over the past years. Other consumers find it difficult to say “no” to advertising that encourages them to buy now, pay later. Once people have an understanding of the emotions around their spending, they can set realistic expectations for paying down their debts permanently.

Source: cnbc.com

Did You Know?

Three Expensive Myths about Downsizing for Retirement

Whether you’re just a year or two away from retirement or sooner, chances are you’re planning to do some downsizing. For example, you may be planning to sell the four-bedroom family home for something smaller and easier to manage. However, before you start packing, it’s wise to look at your future plans first. For example, if you’re planning to leave the suburbs behind for a popular resort or retirement area, this may impact your living costs more than you realize.

There are several myths about downsizing and retirement, including these three.

Myth 1. Moving is mandatory. Even though millions of people aged 62 and older are expected to downsize during the next decade, around 54% of those who own their homes are staying put. Reasons for this include their fondness for their community, their family ties, and the realization that moving could mean higher living costs and taxes.

Myth 2. Downsizing always improves your finances. A paid-off mortgage might lead you to expect a big profit when you sell your home, but that’s not always the case, especially if it hasn’t been updated recently. Another potential problem: being able to afford your next home. Housing prices have skyrocketed in the past five years. Recently, the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis estimated the average sale price of a home during the fourth quarter of 2025 at $534,000.

Myth 3. Smaller homes lower your living expenses. Your destination is just as important, if not more, than the size of your next home. A 600-square-foot condo in a pricey neighborhood might exceed the price of a 2,000-square-foot house in a less expensive region. Smaller spaces may also make activities like entertaining difficult. If you already have a retirement destination in mind, you may want to begin your research sooner than later.

Sources: kiplinger.com



Live Nation operated as illegal monopoly in the ticketing market, jury finds


A jury has found that Live Nation Entertainment and its subsidiary, Ticketmaster, illegally monopolized the US ticketing market in a landmark verdict that could reshape the live entertainment industry.

The jury in Manhattan federal court reached its verdict on Wednesday (April 15).

The verdict is a significant blow to the world’s largest concert promoter and a major victory for the coalition of 33 states and the District of Columbia that continued the trial after the US Department of Justice reached a settlement with the company in March.

The jury found in favor of the states on every claim, according to the verdict form filed with the court, which you can read in full here. The jury found that Ticketmaster willfully acquired or maintained monopoly power in both the primary ticketing market and the primary concert ticketing market for major concert venues through exclusionary conduct, and that Live Nation monopolized the market for large amphitheaters.

The jury also found that Live Nation overcharged consumers on tickets sold from May 2020 through 2024, according to a statement from California Attorney General Rob Bonta.

According to the verdict form, the jury found that consumers were overcharged by $1.72 per ticket for primary concert tickets at major concert venues across 22 states and the District of Columbia as a result of Ticketmaster’s anticompetitive conduct.

It will now fall to US District Judge Arun Subramanian, who is presiding over the case in the Southern District of New York, to determine the remedy. The states have pushed for a break-up of Live Nation and its ticketing subsidiary Ticketmaster, though the judge could instead opt to impose limits on the company’s business practices.

Reuters noted that Live Nation’s shares were down 6.3% in afternoon trading following the news.

In a statement following the verdict, Live Nation said “the jury’s verdict is not the last word on this matter,” adding that it will renew its motion for judgment as a matter of law and appeal any unfavorable rulings.

The company said the $1.72 per-ticket damages finding applies to a “limited number of tickets” sold at 257 venues representing around 20% of total tickets, and estimated aggregate single damages below $150 million, which would be trebled under antitrust law.

Live Nation said it “remains confident that the ultimate outcome of the States’ case will not be materially different than what is envisioned by the DOJ settlement.”

The DOJ sued Live Nation and Ticketmaster in May 2024, joined by attorneys general from dozens of states and the District of Columbia. They accused the company of “monopolization and other unlawful conduct that thwarts competition in markets across the live entertainment industry.”

The trial began on March 2 in Manhattan, but was thrown into chaos a week later when the DOJ announced a settlement with Live Nation that allowed the company to retain ownership of Ticketmaster.

An initial coalition of 27 states and the District of Columbia rejected the deal, with New York Attorney General Letitia James saying the settlement ‘fails to address the monopoly at the center of this case.’ The states filed a motion for a mistrial, accusing the DOJ and Live Nation of ‘gamesmanship’.

Judge Subramanian declined to grant the mistrial but ordered the states to engage in settlement talks with Live Nation. Those talks were ultimately unsuccessful, and the trial continued with a broader coalition of 33 states and the District of Columbia pressing their claims.

During closing arguments, the states’ attorney Jeffrey Kessler told jurors that Live Nation is a “monopolistic bully” that controls 86% of the ticketing market for major concert venues. Live Nation attorney David Marriott countered that the company’s success reflects the quality of its products and services, not illegal conduct. “We are big. That is not against the laws in the United States,” Marriott told the court.

“This is a historic and resounding victory for artists, fans, and the venues that support them.”

California Attorney General Rob Bonta

“The verdict is in! A jury today found Live Nation/Ticketmaster liable for anticompetitive conduct that harmed the music industry and included overcharging consumers. This is a historic and resounding victory for artists, fans, and the venues that support them,” said Attorney General Bonta.

“In the face of dwindling antitrust enforcement by the Trump Administration, this verdict shows just how far states can go to protect our residents from big corporations that are using their power to illegally raise prices and rip-off Americans. We are incredibly proud of today’s outcome — and especially proud of our coalition made up of red and blue states alike who understood we needed to come together to protect our consumers, businesses, and state economies from Live Nation’s illegal conduct.”

“Today’s landmark jury verdict in our case against Live Nation confirms what we have said since the start of our case: For far too long, Live Nation has illegally profited from its monopoly at the expense of hardworking New Jerseyans.”

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport added: “Today’s landmark jury verdict in our case against Live Nation confirms what we have said since the start of our case: For far too long, Live Nation has illegally profited from its monopoly at the expense of hardworking New Jerseyans. Live Nation’s illegal, anti-competitive practices have caused immense damage in our state, exploiting consumers by driving up the price of tickets and making it harder for fans to see their favorite artists.

“Our office, working in close partnership with a bipartisan group of state attorneys general, will continue to do everything in our power to ensure that Live Nation cannot continue to harm consumers, artists, and venues. We are committed to protecting our residents from illegal monopolies and restoring competition in the live music marketplace.”

“Today a jury in New York found Live Nation and Ticketmaster operated as an illegal monopoly.”

New Hampshire Attorney General John M. Formella

New Hampshire Attorney General John M. Formella, said: “Today a jury in New York found Live Nation and Ticketmaster operated as an illegal monopoly. This verdict ensures that Live Nation and Ticketmaster will be held accountable for violations of federal and state antitrust laws, including New Hampshire’s antitrust law. New Hampshire is proud to stand with our fellow State Attorneys General across the country in celebrating this victory for consumers. We are grateful for the jurors’ attention to this important case which impacts numerous aspects of the live entertainment industry.”

 National Independent Venue Association (NIVA) Executive Director Stephen Parker issued the following statement after a jury found Live Nation and Ticketmaster operated as an illegal monopoly:

“In the 44 days Live Nation’s lawyers spent arguing about whether they broke the law, Live Nation made $3.1 billion. Today, the jury confirmed what artists, fans, and independent venues have believed for 15 years: Live Nation is an illegal monopoly. The consequences should be swift and disruptive to their vertically-integrated market power.

“Live Nation and Ticketmaster must be broken up now. Ticketmaster should not be permitted to participate in the ticket resale market. Live Nation should not be able to promote more than 50% of artists’ tours. And the damages paid to the states should be remitted to the independent venues, promoters, festivals, and fans that have suffered under Live Nation’s monopolistic reign over the last 15 years.

“The nation’s fans and independent stages have hope once again because the jury saw Live Nation for what it is. Now the case is in the hands of the judge and the Plaintiff States to determine the remedies that will protect and compensate fans, venues, and promoters for the effects of their monopolistic conduct, and prevent it in the future.”


The verdict came a day after six US senators filed a letter with Judge Subramanian urging him to use his authority under the Tunney Act to scrutinize and potentially reject the DOJ’s March settlement with Live Nation.

Senators Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Richard Blumenthal, Mazie Hirono and Peter Welch argued in the letter, which you can read here, that “mere behavioral safeguards like those in the proposed settlement are insufficient to remedy Live Nation-Ticketmaster’s monopoly power.”

The senators also raised concerns about the circumstances surrounding the settlement, citing sworn testimony from fired DOJ deputy Roger Alford that Live Nation lobbyist Mike Davis had threatened then-antitrust chief Gail Slater over a separate case, and later “admitted in sworn testimony that he recommended Ms. Slater’s firing to ‘anyone who would listen.’”

Slater was ousted from her position on February 12, less than a month before the DOJ settled with Live Nation.

The letter urged the court to conduct an independent examination into whether the settlement was “genuinely made in the public interest,” including requiring the parties to submit a complete description of all communications concerning the deal.

Music Business Worldwide

Top 3 Stocks I Would Buy After This Massive Rally


In today’s video, I discuss recent updates affecting Nvidia (NVDA +1.31%) and other AI stocks. To learn more, check out the short video, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.

*Stock prices used were the post-market prices of April 14, 2026. The video was published on April 14, 2026.

Jose Najarro has positions in Alphabet, Marvell Technology, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Synopsys. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Synopsys. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Jose Najarro is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

Social Media Platform X Introduces “Cashtags,” Pilots Integration With Canadian Brokerage WealthSimple


X, formerly known as Twitter, has introduced “Cashtags,” which associates a ticker (e.g., $AAPL or $BTC) with additional data, such as trading information. At the same time, X revealed a partnership with Canadian brokerage WealthSimple.

WealthSimple clarified the process:

“The Smart Cashtags feature allows investors who are already using X to access Wealthsimple’s trading platform more easily. It’s an optional feature – when someone taps a ticker on X, they’re directed to Wealthsimple to trade. All trading happens on Wealthsimple’s platform, and no client data is shared with X.”

In a post on the platform, X Head of Product Nikia Bier announced the new feature. Bier stated:

“𝕏 has always been the best source of financial news for traders and investors. Billions of dollars are allocated every day based on what people read on Timeline. Today, we’re launching our new Cashtags feature in the US and Canada on iPhone, bringing real-time financial data to X.”

While initially available in the US and Canada, Bier said that web and Android, as well as a global launch, are coming very soon.

The Cashtag feature includes stocks or crypto, as well as affiliated posts on X that discuss the asset. Bier stated Cashtags were a “first step” in serving the financial services sector, including crypto. Regarding the WealthSimple partnership, Bier stated: “This is just a small preview of what’s to come.”

X owner Elon Musk has long expressed his interest in creating an “Everything App” that combines already robust communication features with other services. Fintech has always been a goal.

In fact, some time ago, X sought state money transmission licenses but has yet to take any action on the approvals.

A partnership model for X regarding securities and crypto trading can make a lot of sense and eventually generate significant revenue for the platform, which has morphed from Microblogging to a far more powerful news and communication tool.

Owner Musk remains very engaged with X and posts frequently on the platform, driving exceptional engagement. Prior to his purchase, Twitter had degenerated into a one-sided platform that acted as an extension of the Democrat party, removing posts that did not align with left-leaning policies. Musk decried the demise of free speech and has since created a far more robust news and discussion ecosystem.

 

 



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Scaling a Business Beyond the Family Playbook


ALISON BEARD: Welcome to HBR On Leadership. I’m HBR Executive Editor Alison Beard. On this show, we share case studies and conversations with the world’s top business and management experts, hand-selected to help you unlock the best in those around you. We carefully curate this feed from across the HBR portfolio, aiming to help you unlock your next level of leadership.

I hope you enjoy the episode.

BRIAN KENNY: Here’s a fun fact. Did you know that with 2.1 million employees, Walmart employs more people than the Chinese Liberation Army, which makes it hard to believe that in July of 1962, when Sam and Helen Walden opened their very first store, it was just another mom-and-pop operation. The vast majority of family-owned businesses never reach the incredible heights of Walmart or Ford or Mars, but together, these 5.5 million companies represent 64% of the US GDP and provide 62% of the nation’s jobs. And what’s even more remarkable is that only about 30% of these companies transition to the second generation and a mere 3% to the third generation. Managing family dynamics can be challenging all on its own. Throw a business into the mix and things can get really complicated.

Today on Cold Call, we welcome Professor Henry McGee and guest Jessica Johnson-Cope to discuss the case, “Johnson Security Bureau: Building Multigenerational Success.” I’m your host, Brian Kenny, and you’re listening to Cold Call on the HBR podcast network.

Henry McGee studies the governance of nonprofit organizations, especially those in the arts. He is the former CEO of HBO Home Entertainment, and he is a third time repeat customer here on Cold Call. Welcome back.

HENRY MCGEE: Thank you.

BRIAN KENNY: Actually, this is your fourth. I went back and looked at the episodes. This is your fourth. We’re like Saturday Night Live, when you get to the fifth, you get a special jacket.

HENRY MCGEE: I’m looking forward to that.

BRIAN KENNY: Okay. And JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE is the president and CEO of Johnson Security Bureau. One of the rare family-owned businesses that has passed through three generations. She is the protagonist in our case. Welcome Jessica.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: Thank you, Brian. So happy to be here today.

BRIAN KENNY: We’ll talk a little bit today about some of the insights that the students get out of the case, but I think people are going to be interested from a couple of perspectives. I do mention that it’s really rare for a family-owned business to survive as long as this has, and not only survive, but thrive. So I think people will be interested in hearing what your strategy has been and how you’ve been able to make that a reality. So great to have you both here in the studio and let’s get started. Henry, I’m going to ask you to start by telling us what the central issue is in the case and what your cold call is when you start the discussion.

HENRY MCGEE: Great. Well, let me give you a little bit of background, Brian, before we do that. The case is taught in the course “Scaling Minority Businesses.” During COVID, surveys showed that minority-owned businesses were failing at a much faster rate than white-owned businesses. And then of course in the spring of 2020, we had the murder of George Floyd. So I got together with a couple of my faculty colleagues, Jeff Bussgang and Archie Jones, and we launched this course that was really focused on two things. One, it would both simultaneously study the special challenges faced by minority entrepreneurs and it would also give the students an opportunity for hands-on learning with working with these businesses as they tackled either a strategic challenge or an operational issue they were trying to solve. And so we’ve been doing the course since I guess the fall of 2020.

And so I came across Jessica’s business really in an article in the Wall Street Journal in September of 2022. She had been participating in the Goldman Sachs 10,000 small business program. And it had been very successful for her as this program provides mentorship and contacts for small businesses. And she agreed to first participate as a business that the students worked with. And it was such a great experience that we decided to write a case study on her. And so she’s here on campus today to talk with this year’s students about that. We pose a question to the students, and that is, as a small business … Growing small, medium-sized business, she’s got three issues she’s got to think about in terms of scaling. Three opportunities. One is should she double down and continue to focus on the New York market, Should she think about geographic expansion? Rr should she think about entering a new area which is the field of cyber security? And the students will debate those three options.

BRIAN KENNY: That’s a good way to start. Jessica, let me turn to you for a minute. It’d be great if you just tell us a little bit about Johnson Security Bureau. How would you describe it in your own words? And I know your journey began after your father passed away, that’s when you stepped in to take over the business as the case describes it. Can you tell us more about what it was like for you to step into those shoes? It’s got to be a really difficult thing to be able to do.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: It’s a challenge, but it’s a welcome challenge. I was fortunate to be able to grow up watching my grandmother and my father run the business together for several decades. My grandmother, my grandfather had migrated to New York from the deep south during segregation looking for opportunity. And they saw entrepreneurship, starting their own business as a way to create opportunity not just for their children, but for the children who lived on their block, for the people who went to church with them, for the people that served in the unions with them. And so to be able to step into the business, even in spite of the situation that put me into the business and losing my dad, I consider it the opportunity to carry the mantle that my grandparents set, the foundation that they set to be the embodiment of my elders’ greatest dreams. And so every day I’m fortunate to be able to just be a living witness of what happens when families stick together, see opportunity, put in the work, and are able to bring other folks together into the fold to carry on the business legacy.

BRIAN KENNY: That’s great. So tell us what the business is.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: Oh, Johnson Security is a 62-year-old business, third generation based in the south Bronx, New York that provides physical security services. Our guards serve in capacities of facilities that include banks, hospitals, and outpatient health clinics, transportation facilities and government facilities. And we’ve been doing that since 1962. Now, 62 years. Mostly in New York City. We’ve added armored car services under my leadership. More recently we started working with the federal government to provide security screening in airports. And there’s just a breadth of different opportunity in the security space that we’re excited about.

BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. And you’re in a huge market, obviously New York. Huge market for security services. But the case starts off at a point where you’re at a crossroads as you’re stepping in here and there are some decisions that you’ve got to make. What are the kinds of decisions that were on the table?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: Well, the decision is do we stay small, play small ball, or do we really think about how to grow and scale the business? And one of the challenges, particularly in the neighborhood where we’re based, is that it’s a low-income community. And I’ve always understood that part of the responsibility of being a business owner is to create opportunities for others. And so if I wanted to see change in terms of the economy, where we lived and where we conducted business, that change would have to start with me. So when thinking about the business and how we grow and scale, what job opportunities are we going to create because no one else is coming to save us. Additionally, who do we want to partner with to create those opportunities? What type of corporations? What type of government entities? What type of strategic partners do we want to have? And then where do we want to do that? Do we want to stay in the corner where we’ve been doing business in the South Bronx? Do we want to expand throughout New York City, New York state, the East Coast, potentially across the nation or across the world?

With technology and with the type of partners we have, being able to scale geographically is more of a reality now than it was when my grandparents started the business. So those were some of the key considerations. Job creation, geographic expansion, how do we incorporate technology and how do we do it at a consistent level demonstrating excellence so that people want to do business with us, not for the sake of us being a minority or woman-owned firm, but because we’re just a great business with whom people want to work?

BRIAN KENNY:Yeah. Huge decisions and the challenge of scaling is always one of the biggest challenges that entrepreneurs face. Henry I want to come back to-

HENRY MCGEE: I would just jump in and say that effect is the crux of much of the discussion in the classroom is should she Jessica really double them? New York is the largest metropolitan area in the United States. Should she focus on that and explore growth there? Should she think about geographic expansion? But if so, with whom and how those should it be structured? Should they be joint ventures? Should they be joint bids? And then the larger question is the physical guard business has margins in the single digits where cybersecurity has margins, which are four to five times that. But how do you get into that business and should you get into that business?

BRIAN KENNY: You mentioned earlier about the 10,000 small business program. We actually did a podcast episode on that that we’ll put a link in the transcript so our listeners can check that out. Can you describe that program a little bit and then talk somewhat about what some of the challenges are that minority business owners face?

HENRY MCGEE: Okay. As it turns out, Jessica is the head of the alumni association for the 10,000 Small Business Initiative…

BRIAN KENNY: So, we should probably let her answer that question is what you’re saying.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: So the 10,000 Small Businesses Initiative is a program that was created by the Goldman Sachs Foundation coming out of the financial crisis of 2008. One of the advisory board members, Mr. Warren Buffett, who with whom many of us are familiar with-

BRIAN KENNY: We know that name.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: He encouraged the firm to look at how small businesses were going to help the nation move beyond the financial crisis. And so Goldman made a significant financial investment, partnering with community colleges across the country, providing executive level business education with business advisory services and access to capital through CDFIs, community development financial institutions, to help high growth opportunity, small businesses across the country to grow. Initially the goal was to get to 10,000 small businesses. In 2009 when the program launched, they thought it would be a ten-year initiative. Here we are past 10 years. We have an excess of 15,000 alumni across the country in all 50 states and the U.S. territories. And the latest iteration of 10,000 small businesses focuses on rural-based small businesses because they’ve often been overlooked. And so the most recent launch was in Minnesota a week or two ago. So I’m proud to serve as the head of the 10,000 Small Businesses Voices advocacy platform, which helps to band together the small business alumni to identify what are the priorities, legislative priorities that we have, how can we have conversations with the elected officials in Washington DC as well as in our state capitals to advance the issues that are important to us to help us not only to survive, but to thrive. Particularly as we look at changing economic factors, access to capital, access to a well-trained workforce, and the other things that we face just in business in general.

BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. Yeah. It’s a fabulous program. When we did the show, it was probably five or six years ago, so they were coming up on their 10th anniversary at that time. So really glad to see that it’s still thriving. But let’s go back to the other part of the question, which is minority business owners face a whole set of challenges that other business owners don’t face. Can you tell us about some of those?

HENRY MCGEE: Well, we can start, first of all, with access to capital. One of the most popular ways for white entrepreneurs to get into business is to leverage their home equity. But because of historic discrimination in that market, difficulty of black and brown consumers to get home loans, the home ownership rates are so much lower. And so that form of capital has been denied. Also, black-owned businesses and Latinx businesses tend to operate in certain communities, which are discriminated against in terms of the number of business loans that banks traditionally have made in that area. So access to financing is a huge, huge issue for minority entrepreneurs. Another big issue is access to markets and customers. And again, whether it’s racial discrimination or the size of the businesses, it’s been often a big, big challenge for minority-owned businesses to get the customers they need in order to grow.

BRIAN KENNY: Jessica. I want to go back to one of the things that you were looking at as you considered this crossroads that you were at was expanding further into New York City, broadening the scope of your business and your relationships. What are the kinds of decisions that you have to make about who you’re going to partner with and what do you look for in a partner when you’re thinking about scaling your business?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: Well, smart partners can make all of the difference. And we’ve been very fortunate to be able to connect with several large corporations that are making investments in people, making investments in organizations as well as making investments in communities. And they haven’t given us handouts, but given us a seat at the table to have different levels of conversation that on our own we might not have been able to access. So having the appropriate corporate and legislative partners is one key part. And when we’re looking at potential business partners, we look at core values. Our core values were key to my grandparents when they started the business. And so as I carry on their legacy, if I’m not value- and principle-based, then I’m not living up to that legacy. And one of the things that many of the organizations with whom we do business say when they do business with Johnson Security is we love the story. We love what your family stands for, what the business stands for. And so when we’re looking for business partners, we need people who stand for something, who stand on a set of values that align with our core values as we communicate them and as we demonstrate them and the work we do as well as the clients with whom we choose to do that work.

BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. This is a key theme that I think we see run through a lot of challenges that family-owned businesses in particular face, which is you have the originator of the business, who’s got a vision, who’s got the core values, who’s setting the tone. But how do you hand that down to the next generation and ensure that it’s going to survive or even the next generation after that? And that might be part of the reason why a lot of family-owned businesses don’t make it to where you have, the third generation. Did you learn things from your father and your grandmother specifically as they were teaching you about this business?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: I did. I did. So we had an odd set-up in terms of how we lived. My grandmother and my father lived in the same apartment building, and they lived directly across the street from where my brother and I grew up with my mom. And so every day I was able to see my dad and my grandmother. We would have dinner together as a family. And at the dinner table we would talk about business, we would talk about community, we would talk about interests that impacted the family. And so having those regular conversations, being able to sit at my grandmother’s knee as she cooked, and she would relay stories to me about growing up in North Carolina, she would relay stories to me about the business and how she exemplified excellence and how she led the business as a woman during the Civil Rights era. So, I say any challenges I face now is nothing compared to what she had to deal with. Being a young widowed woman, raising children, and running a business all at the same time in an environment that wasn’t welcoming to her. She was an educator by training. And so as she led the business, she thought about … She put on her hat as a guidance counselor because that’s what she did as work in New York City public schools before she went into business. And so she always wanted to make sure she connected with where someone was trying to go to help them get there and used the business as a tool to get there. And so watching her be a guidance counselor, being a principled woman, being a mother, a grandmother, a cook, a business leader, and being tied to the community through the church and the union, that demonstrated to me what servant leadership looked like in business. And having been able to watch her … Because she worked in our business up until almost 2003 when she passed away. Watching her as a child and then watching her as an adult and then having been able to go outside of the house and work for somebody else and then come back, seeing the difference was seeing how some people in corporate environments ran their business, that taught me a lot about being a leader and how I wanted to take the business into the future. So I could borrow many things from her and then make adjustments. My first job out of college was with IBM selling technology.

BRIAN KENNY: I’ve heard of them.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: And so understanding what role innovation plays in longevity and remaining relevant in a marketplace. And then my dad, having watched him work. He was a trained attorney. He worked in the Bronx district attorney’s office. He also served in state government before he came back into the business. So understanding that advocacy and legislative piece as it applies to impacting the community and as it applies to running a business. I think they equipped me with skills that I didn’t even know that I needed, but helped me to carry on the business into the next generation and to be efficient and effective in the role that I play.

BRIAN KENNY: Henry, not everybody has the fortunate circumstance that Jessica had to be able to be at the knee of her mentors as she was growing up and learn the business. What are some strategies that people listening can think about as they try to hand down that same value to the next generation?

HENRY MCGEE: I think they should think very consciously about it. It’s not going to happen without some intention. So the first thing would be to have a plan. I do think it’s very important that whoever’s going to take over the business … And of course there may be sibling rivalry or other rivalries. We see that being played out right now with the Murdoch family and others. HBO has an entire successful series on just this issue.

BRIAN KENNY: Still plugging HBO.

HENRY MCGEE: Still plug it. I had to. I had to. But I would think one is identifying a clear set of successor or successors. Bringing them in as Jessica’s family did with her early on in the business. But I do think that the key to success is managing all the family dynamics in a business situation and having to be able to prepare to make decisions that you somehow got to figure out how to divorce the emotion from the decisions that you’re making. That can be very, very tough.

BRIAN KENNY: Anybody who’s planned a wedding can tell you that can be really hard.

HENRY MCGEE: Exactly. Exactly.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: And Brian, I’ll add access to networks is important. My grandparents had a phenomenal network of other movers and shakers in Harlem in the New York City area. So like Dave Dinkins and Basil Patterson and Percy Sutton. So leaders in the community as well as leaders in business. So for anyone looking to take their business to the next generation, you don’t have to have all of the answers, but if you have a strong support network of other business minded people who have access, who are plugged in, that can advise your children, your grandchildren, that helps to create those conversations when it gets difficult.

HENRY MCGEE: Yeah. Yeah. Brian, if we could go back and talk a bit about Jessica’s success, which is so much based on the values that were handed down to her by her family. I think that is an issue that she’s wrestling with right now in terms of how to scale the business because should she decide to either acquire another business or to joint venture with a business, it’s important that she find a partner or in a company that that shares the same values because it would be a disaster for her if she finds out that she’s bought a company that isn’t run the way that she wants it to run, or she’s got a partner that doesn’t share her values. And so those are real impediments, challenges that she has to overcome as she thinks about scaling her business.

BRIAN KENNY: One of the things that gave me a real glimpse into your leadership style in the case was it talks about one of your largest clients called you up and said, “We want you to do all our security, like everywhere.” And you didn’t just jump at that chance. That was a moment for you to step back and say, “Wait a second. Are we ready to do this? Are we ready to do it in a way that’s consistent with our values as a business?” I’m wondering how your employees would describe your leadership style. It’s a hard question. I know.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: I would say my employees would describe my leadership style as musical. That at times it’s very up-tempo and sometimes it’s very low-key. That it can make you dance at the same time. It can make you cry, but it has a certain level of energy and a beat to it that gets people’s attention and makes them want to follow just like music does.

BRIAN KENNY: That’s the best answer to that question I’ve ever had. Henry, how do you think people would describe Jessica’s leadership style?

HENRY MCGEE: I think that they would describe her as a combination of being both inspirational but also forceful. There as you know, many theories about the value of leadership from behind. She’s very, very much in the leading, leading by example. There is right now, as you know, Brian much talk about founder mentality and that as a leadership style, and I would certainly place Jessica in that group of founders who are very much involved in the business, but also can pull back and talk about the strategic direction as well.

BRIAN KENNY: I like that. One of the strategic choices that you made in the case is to move into cybersecurity space. We all hear every day about all of the dangers that are out there with cybersecurity, so there’s no shortage of need there. How did you think about making that move? What were some of the things that led to your decision to do it and how’s it going?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: So one of the things I say to my team all the time is, what’s the point of having trusted advisors if you don’t trust their advice? There’s a gentleman named Bob Perry who for the last 16 or so years has released a white paper on the state of the contract security market in North America. He focuses on transactions, mergers, acquisition, sales of other contract security guard companies. And I had a conversation with Bob just last month about what’s coming up, and he said, “Any small company in the security market that’s not taking advantage of technology will get left behind.” Now, I have a background as an engineer, maybe not the best engineer, but still nonetheless an engineering background. And I understand that I want to take my business into the future and that the physical guard services are not going to get us there. That we have to figure out some way to supplement what we’re doing with the guard work with technology and cyber security just seemed logical with the number of increasing threats. Some of my advisors on the corporate side always talk about the next big security emergency is not going to be a physical one, it’s going to be a cyber one. And so wanting to position the company for success, wanting to be able to provide my customers with the services that they need and to support the longevity of their security programs. Those were some of the key factors in us considering cybersecurity as an extension of the business.

BRIAN KENNY: So this is a big decision, Henry, for her to make.

HENRY MCGEE: It does. And so one of the questions we ask the students is, as Johnson Security Bureau is currently constituted, what are the challenges it’s going to face in making this pivot? Right now, it’s a very labor-intensive business. There are recruiting issues that she faces in terms of staff turnover, staff training, and so on. Once you go into cybersecurity, it’s a different workforce. Also, you’re then competing against other firms who are already established in the cybersecurity field. And so how does she make that leap from physical security to cybersecurity, which she’s so rightly identified is something she has to do, but the question is how does she do it?

BRIAN KENNY: It must feel lonely sometimes, Jessica, when you’re the one that’s got to make the call. How do you know when to call on an advisor or a mentor to give you some counsel?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: Some days you just get decision fatigue, and you don’t have the strength to see things clearly. So you call in the reinforcements. Who’s on the bench? Is it Aaron Rodgers or is it Patrick Mahomes? I want to go to Patrick Mahomes if I have decision fatigue.

BRIAN KENNY: I don’t blame you.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: But I understand what I know and what I don’t know. And what I see, especially in this internet age where people are seeing being a CEO and a business leader glorified, is that ego gets in the way of making good business decisions. So when ego starts to get really loud, those are the times where I have to get quiet and seek those trusted advisors to give me the right information. And sometimes they say what I was thinking and confirm. Oftentimes they tell me something different. And one of the tests of better leaders is knowing when to be quiet and take the advice of someone else, even if it’s not what you think.

BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. That’s the basis of the case method. That’s why we teach that way at Harvard Business School, because you’ve got to be willing to listen to an opposing point of view from time to time to help you shape your own point of view.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: And our politicians could take a couple of notes from that.

BRIAN KENNY: Yes. They could. COVID-19, because we’re still so much feeling the gyrations from COVID-19, I’m wondering how that impacted your business because I think any small business that was able to weather that storm must have made some really hard decisions while it was happening.

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: We were very fortunate. Security is considered an essential service, so we didn’t have to close our doors. Many of our clients needed the same level or additional coverage than they did before the pandemic. So our business almost doubled from March to April of 2020 as a result of having one contract with the hospital system and then having to work with the COVID team there and provide emergency services. That allowed us to keep people working. People who otherwise would not be able to go to work. And more so than any decision I can make, I appreciate my employees, our team members who kept showing up. I appreciate that our clients continued to call on us because they trusted that their facilities and their people would be safe when they employed our services. And that’s what helped us to get through 2020, 2021, even into 2022. The majority of our business was either in healthcare or in transportation, protecting critical systems around New York City while people were not able to work.

BRIAN KENNY: Henry, I’m wondering if we extrapolate this beyond Jessica’s business, beyond that segment, what are some of the things that people listening might take to heart where it comes to creating that resiliency and creating that ability to be able to see opportunities if you’re in a small business and you want to find a way to scale and grow?

HENRY MCGEE: Several things. First, I think that understanding both your market and market trends very, very important. If you are in a mature business, be aware of that and think about how you’re going to compete in a mature business. In Jessica’s case, for example, while she’s in the security business, has been around for a long, long time, it is mature. There are also segments that are growing to cyber security. So her strategy is to move into cyber security. So one is understand where you are in the life cycle of your business and what the market looks like. The second thing is you’ve been a successful entrepreneur because you have been prepared to take risk. And I think as you think about changing, you’re going to continue to have to take those risks. This is no time to have a lack of courage. And so that as well. Understanding the market. Be prepared to take risk. And then the thing that Jessica has talked about is to have an understanding of, at the end of the day, what the purpose of the business is and why you are doing this at all. And I think those three things together can make a huge difference.

BRIAN KENNY: I’ve got one question left for each of you, so you can’t get up just yet. But building on what Henry was just saying, Jessica, my question for you would be, given the opportunities that are in front of you and given the challenges that are in front of you, what do you see as the things that you’re going to be focused on in the next five years or so and what will success look like at the end of that period?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: I love that question. On our team, we like to say they’re riches and niches; that we have to find a focus. We can’t be everything to everyone. I anticipate with addition to what’s happening in the political forefront, the changes that we’re seeing in the demographics across the country, there’ll be lots of opportunities for physical security. And we want to be positioned to take advantage of construction opportunities because there will be building. We want to take advantage of transportation because people will need to get back and forward from wherever they’re going. We want to make sure that we maintain strong strategic corporate relationships, whether it’s just for goodwill or just for understanding which organizations will be leading our nation forward through the next decade. And success looks like putting people to work while we’re putting money in their pockets. Giving them respectable jobs. Just like my grandmother and my grandfather wanted people to be respected. Showing that you can have values in business and still be successful. And building the next generation of business leaders, whether they’re entrepreneurs or whether they come through Johnson Security and go work for someone’s corporation. I tell everybody that with Johnson Security, I’m the only person that has to die there. But anybody that has the opportunity to touch our family’s business, I want them to leave better than before they touched us. So whether that means they have additional skills, they have additional relationships, they have additional exposure, that they’re better after an interaction with our firm than beforehand, and if we can do it en masse, then that would really be successful.

BRIAN KENNY: I love that. And I think succession planning needs to be part of your next five years too. Are you got to think about the fourth generation?

JESSICA JOHNSON-COPE: We think about that. I have a 13-year-old and a three-year-old niece. The three-year-old. She says that she’s the mini boss. And when she goes to school, she knows she has to make good choices because that’s what mini bosses do.

BRIAN KENNY: Henry, over to you for the last word since you are the professor on the case. If there’s one thing you want people to remember about this case, about the Johnson Security Bureau, what would it be?

HENRY MCGEE: To me, the big takeaway is a strong leader who has a purpose for the business that combines both a focus on a profit, but also its responsibility to the community.

ALISON BEARD: HBR On Leadership will be back next Wednesday with another hand-picked conversation from Harvard Business Review.

This episode was produced by Mary Dooe. On Leadership’s team includes Maureen Hoch, Rob Eckhardt, Erica Truxler, and Ian Fox.

If this episode helped you, please share it with your friends and colleagues, and follow the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. While you’re there, consider leaving us a review.

When you’re ready for more podcasts, articles, case studies, books, and videos with the world’s top business and management experts, find it all at HBR.org.

Wealth is Pouring Into These Five States—What Does it Mean For Investing in Those Markets?


You’ve probably heard the phrase “misery loves company.” Turns out, money loves it too.

The latest IRS migration data, set to visuals on Realtor.com, show that well-heeled individuals are quietly packing their bags and leaving high-tax coastal markets for lower-tax Sunbelt and Mountain states.

The wealth migration isn’t just for the likes of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk; smaller real estate landlords are getting in on the exodus and, in doing so, reshaping rents, demand, and long-term appreciation.

The New Map of American Money

Visual Capitalist released its own map of the movement in America in 2023 based on IRS data and the Realtor.com analysis. It shows that, by far, Florida is the most popular state for Americans to move to, followed by Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada, bringing their billions with them from other states. 

Rank

State

Net Interstate Income Flows

1 Florida $21B
2 Texas $6B
3 North Carolina $4B
4 South Carolina $4B
5 Arizona $3B

Conversely, California and New York, where residents are taxed at higher rates and real estate is more expensive, saw large population outflows.

Why Wealth Loves Florida

Despite its unpredictable weather and high insurance costs, Florida attracted roughly $20.65 billion in taxpayers’ money—more than any other state. Texas followed with $5.5 billion in net gains, with South Carolina at around $4.1 billion and North Carolina at $3.9 billion, highlighting the attraction to America’s Southeast. 

Meanwhile, the coastal hubs are bleeding taxpayers’ cash. The Wall Street Journal’s Allysia Finley said on the Potomac Watch podcast:

“You see the same trends that were already occurring before the pandemic, and in part, you’ve got a lot of people from New York, New Jersey, the Northeast who are moving down to lower tax climates in the Sunbelt. So the top states that have lost adjusted gross income, and that’s how the IRS actually breaks down the data, by adjusted gross income…New York lost $9.9 billion. Illinois’s $6 billion. Massachusetts, $4 billion, New Jersey, 2.6 billion. Maryland, $1.8 billion. And Minnesota, $1.5 billion.”

Fellow podcast host Kyle Peterson was quick to point out that it wasn’t just the Sunbelt that was attracting residents: “New Hampshire, Wyoming, and South Dakota are gaining income in this IRS data. You’re not moving to South Dakota for the weather.”

High Earners Are Leading the Exodus of High-Tax States

While large swaths of everyday workers and real estate investors have decided to give up on higher-tax states, it is billionaires and multimillionaires who are making the headlines, encouraging others to follow suit.

“You’re driving away at the top earners, and you saw that with Washington State…which has lost Jeff Bezos as well as Howard Schultz (founder of Starbucks), entrepreneurs who started their businesses in Washington State,” Finley said in the podcast.

Jasper County in South Carolina Is the Fastest-Growing County in The U.S.

The loss of tax revenue is directly linked to housing supply, with Sunbelt states not only having the additional cash to support housing initiatives but also residents to absorb the new construction of condos and apartments.

One of the immediate beneficiaries of the exodus from high-tax states has been South Carolina’s Jasper County, where the U.S. Census Bureau shows the population has increased by 9,000 in the last six years to 38,000 residents, making it the fastest-growing county in the U.S. centered on its main city, Hardeeville. That has resulted in a housing boom, according to the New York Times.

“Our goal is not to get to 100,000 people, although that may happen someday,” Hardeeville Mayor Harry Williams told the Times. “Our goal is to bring job opportunities to our young people.”

What This Means For Investors

The equation is simple: The wealthier the state, the more people will pay for rent, and the greater the population, the greater the incentive to build more housing, which in turn will help equalize home prices.

The IRS data shows that Florida’s Palm Beach County received about $3.04 billion in income in 2023, with residents’ average income around $178,085. The greater the diversity of migrants in a state, the greater the need for diverse housing that supports mom-and-pop landlords rather than just deep-pocketed investors buying pricey condos or second homes to rent out on a short-term basis when they are not there.

“Texas is growing fast, but its migration story is broader and more working- and middle-class than Florida’s,” journalist Jack Salmon wrote on The Unseen and The Unsaid Substack when commenting on the same 2022-2023 IRS data as Realtor.com.

While much of the country struggles with affordability, Forbes notes that the rising share of wealth held by the top 1% “has reached a new record,” which, when combined with the migration patterns across the U.S., portends high rent growth and property values, though it must be noted that many of the extremely rich will buy rather than rent. Still, the increase in property values, like an incoming tide, causes all else to rise up with it.

Final Thoughts: Using the Migration Map to Create a Practical Investment Game Plan

If you are not looking for a simple, safe place to park your cash but rather to leverage it, there’s no point in investing in Miami and the other pricey metros attracting high-income residents. The rental market generally won’t support cash flow from rentals.

Instead, look to more affordable markets in North Carolina and away from the big tourist attractions, where a mix of retirees, remote workers, and future first-time homeowners might want to rent for flexibility or to save. There are also higher-end homes here that could double as short-term rentals. But again, the more expensive, the less sense it makes to leverage.

Elsewhere, Tennessee, Georgia, and Arizona will also offer pockets of investor-friendly real estate that might not cash flow given current interest rates but could look like a prescient move when the hallowed day of sizable rate drops finally arrives, or you simply hold on to them long enough to pay down the mortgage while rents increase.

Manufactured Homes On Leasehold Properties: Fannie Mae Vs. Freddie Mac Guidelines


Financing a manufactured home can already involve additional layers of review, and when that home is located in a leasehold community, the rules become even more specific.

One of the most important distinctions to understand is how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac differ with respect to manufactured homes on leasehold land.

Fannie Mae: Leasehold Manufactured Homes Not Eligible

Fannie Mae will not finance a manufactured home that:

  • Is comprised of multiple sections
  • Was assembled on-site
  • Is located on land that is part of a leasehold community

Even if the home is permanently affixed and otherwise meets manufactured housing requirements, the property’s leasehold land status alone makes it ineligible under Fannie Mae guidelines.

For borrowers pursuing conventional financing, this restriction can immediately eliminate Fannie Mae as an option.

Freddie Mac: Leasehold Allowed, With a Key Limitation

Freddie Mac takes a more flexible approach.

Freddie Mac will allow financing for manufactured homes located on leasehold properties, provided one critical condition is met:

  • The subject property may NOT have an ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit)

If any type of ADU is present, detached, attached, or converted,  the loan becomes ineligible under Freddie Mac guidelines.

This distinction makes Freddie Mac a potential solution when Fannie Mae cannot be used, but only if the property meets this strict requirement.

Required Documentation: Data Plate & HUD Certification Label

Regardless of which agency is used, documentation is non-negotiable.

Both of the following must be present on the manufactured home:

  • Manufacturer’s Data Plate
  • HUD Certification Label

In addition:

  • Clear photos of both items must be included in the appraisal report

If either item is missing or not photographed, the loan cannot proceed until the issue is resolved.

Maximum Financing: Up to 95% LTV with MI

For eligible transactions, the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) is 95%, provided mortgage insurance (MI) can be obtained.

This allows qualified borrowers to achieve high leverage while still remaining within agency guidelines.

Have a Manufactured Home Scenario?

Contact us to discuss your scenario. We work with all 3 agencies and are very big in non-QM loans, so reach out and see if we have a program for you.

 

Harvard policy expert: ‘I am certain’ Iran war will cost U.S. taxpayers $1 trillion



Following the 2003 Iraq war, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the U.S. had spent $500 billion in direct costs on the conflict, but economics and policy experts Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes begged to differ. In a 2006 study, they calculated the war was in fact four times more expensive than the CBO had calculated, costing U.S. taxpayers more than $2 trillion in their moderate estimate. In 2013, Bilmes revised the costs and concluded about $4 trillion to $6 trillion was spent on both the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

The U.S. once again is locked in conflict in the Middle East. Bilmes, a Harvard Kennedy School public policy lecturer and author of The Ghost Budget: Paying for America’s 9/11 Wars, is once again sounding the alarm on the true cost of the war with Iran. 

“I am certain we will spend one trillion dollars for the Iran war,” she said in an interview this month at the Harvard Kennedy School. “Perhaps we have already racked up that amount.”

Bilmes’s 13-figure estimation dwarfs initial projections of spending on the conflict, at $1 billion per day. The Pentagon told Congress the first week of the war reportedly cost about $11.3 billion alone. If that rate of spending continued, the cost of the war would have exceeded $35 billion by April 1, according to the thinktank American Enterprise Institute (AEI). AEI economists suggested that the first month of war cost each American household $260—which seems small but there are over 150 million taxpaying households in the United States. Currently, Bilmes estimates the U.S. is spending about $2 billion per day on the war.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the war could end “very soon” as the U.S. engages in peace talks with Iran as it continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeated this rhetoric over the course of the conflict. Last month, the Pentagon asked the White House to approve $200 billion in additional funding toward efforts in Iran, the Washington Post reported.

Bilmes said just like 20 years ago, the U.S. is continuing to underestimate how much money will be required to find the war and its after effects. In an interview with Fortune, she outlined the often-overlooked war spending that persists even years after the conflict is over, arguing the expenses could further burden America’s $39 trillion debt.

“Wars always have a long tail of costs,” she told Fortune. “Wars cost more than we expect. Wars take the cost to go on for longer than we expect, and some of these costs are very consequential.”

Short-term costs

When most people talk about the cost of war, they are thinking of the direct costs of munitions and combat, according to Bilmes, “which are themselves understated.” 

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington, D.C., think tank, estimated projected spending was $11.3 billion by the sixth day of the war on munitions alone, $1.4 billion on combat loss and infrastructure damage, and $26.5 million on operations, totaling about $16.5 billion by day 12. But this number increases when considering the cost to replace munitions, which could range from 50% to nearly double the initial cost, Bilmes said. And as a result of tariffs and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the Russian-Ukraine war, some U.S. munitions makers have warned the price to produce ammo has increased 8% to 14% since 2024 

Additional spending will depend on damage to key infrastructure in the Gulf, and with the U.S. operating 19 military sites in the region, some have already sustained damage, which CSIS assessed to cost $800 billion within the first two weeks of the war.

Some U.S. spending on the war may also be disproportionate to Iran’s spending. For example, the drones Iran uses are much less expensive than the weapons the U.S. need to destroy those drones. A Shahed drone used by Iran can cost between $20,000 and $50,000, according to Reuters, while a Patriot interceptor used to shoot down the drone may cost about $4 million because they require much more sophisticated technology to function.

“Not only are the costs high, but we have these in this imbalanced situation where costs are disproportionately high compared to the cost of producing drones,” Bilmes said.

The Pentagon declined to respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Long-term impact

According to Bilmes, war spending calculations seldom touch on long-term expenditures, particularly the cost of disability benefits to veterans. The Department of Veteran Affairs reported providing $195 billion in compensation to more than 6.9 million veterans and their families through fiscal 2025, according to the Government Accountability Office, an increase from $136 billion in fiscal year 2023.

Spending on veteran disability benefits increases in times of war, when more individuals are deployed and placed in conditions where they may be exposed to contaminants and chemicals leading to chronic health problems, Bilmes noted. There are now about 60,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East region. Since the Gulf War, about 50% of veterans claimed disability benefits, with 37% of Gulf war veterans receiving lifetime disability benefits of some kind, according to Bilmes.

But the Trump administration’s efforts to increase the Department of War budget amid the ongoing conflict presents among the greatest increase in spending, Bilmes argued. Trump has called for $1.5 trillion to be added to the military budget for 2027, up from the $1 trillion proposed earlier. Because of the war, she suggested, Congress is more likely to approve a budget increase, which likely means hundreds of billions of dollars in additional military spending each year, indirectly a result of the Iran war.

“Before this war, Congress was lukewarm toward this idea, but the the obvious depletion of many, many stockpiles and inventories and munitions and so forth, is leading to an environment in which probably the president will secure a much larger increase to the defense budget,” Bilmes said.

The policy expert warned that because a lion’s share of that spending will be borrowed as the Trump administration slashes tax revenue, the Iran war will further weigh on the country’s $39 trillion national debt. Compared to the Iraq war in 2003 when nearly $4 trillion of the debt was held by the public and 7% of the total national budget was for paying interest, today about $31 trillion of debt is held by the public, with almost 15% of the total budget being spent on interest, Bilmes said.

“In this case, we’re borrowing high rates, largely for things that will end up in the sand,” she concluded.

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