Some American Express Platinum cardholders are reporting a pending $50 “Saks Benefit Goodwill” statement credit on their accounts.
The credit comes shortly after the Saks Fifth Avenue benefit officially ended on June 30. So far, the credit appears on some accounts only. So it’s unclear exactly who is eligible or maybe they are just rolling it out slowly for all Platinum cardholders. Maybe it’s only for those who didn’t use the credit during the first half of the year. One of our Facebook Group members reports getting the credit even after using it earlier in the year.
More people report getting this credit as recently as July 13th. Let me know if you see this credit in your account!
HT: r/AmexPlatinum
The post Amex Platinum Cardholders Seeing $50 “Saks Benefit Goodwill” Credit in July appeared first on Danny the Deal Guru.
Most physicians have an estate plan. The problem isn’t that they skipped it. The problem is they did it once, filed it away, and never thought about it again.
If you drafted your documents more than five years ago, and your life has changed in any meaningful way since then, that plan is probably wrong. Not slightly off. Wrong in ways that could leave your family dealing with a legal and financial mess at exactly the moment they’re least equipped to handle it.
Here’s how to think about it, what to actually check, and where physicians specifically tend to get tripped up.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Any investment involves risk, and you should consult your financial advisor, attorney, or CPA before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author and associated entities disclaim any liability for loss incurred as a result of the use of this material or its content.
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Why Physicians Let Estate Plans Go Stale
I’ll be honest about my own situation. I pulled out my estate plan a few years ago after a colleague of mine passed away suddenly. We’d worked together in the OR for years. He was in his early 50s, healthy, active. He was mountain biking and just didn’t come home. His kids were in high school.
That kind of loss makes you think about your own mortality. But it also made me ask a more practical question: if something happened to me tomorrow, would my family actually be okay? Not emotionally. Legally. Financially. Would the documents I have say what I actually intend them to say?
So I found my estate plan. And what I found was that it had been written before my second child was born.
My real estate portfolio didn’t exist when that document was written. My business didn’t exist. A beneficiary listed on one of my accounts was someone I would not have chosen if I’d sat down that day and actually thought about it.
None of that was wrong because I was careless. It was wrong because life happened. A decade passed. The document stayed the same.
For physicians, this gap is usually wider than average. Think about what changes in a doctor’s financial life over ten years. Kids are born. Real estate is acquired. Businesses are started. A second income enters the household. Net worth grows substantially. Every one of those events is a legitimate trigger for a review. Most of us never do it.
What’s Actually in Your Estate Plan
Before you can know what to update, you need to understand what you’re working with. A lot of physicians aren’t entirely sure what they signed. Here’s a quick breakdown of the core documents.
The will. This is what most people think of first. It says where your assets go when you die. But a will goes through probate, which is a court process. It’s public, it takes time (sometimes over a year), and it costs money. Most physicians with any meaningful asset base should not be relying on a will alone.
The revocable living trust. This is what avoids probate. Assets transfer directly to your beneficiaries without going through a court. Faster, private, and more control over how and when distributions happen.
But here’s the issue I see constantly: physicians have a trust that was never funded. The trust exists on paper, but the assets were never actually transferred into it. The house is still titled in their personal name. The brokerage account is still personal. The rental property, same. So when they pass, everything goes through probate anyway. The trust is just a document sitting in a drawer.
The durable power of attorney. This names who can make financial decisions on your behalf if you’re incapacitated but still alive. Most physicians named someone years ago and haven’t revisited it. Is that still the right person? Is that relationship still the same?
The healthcare directive. Separate from the financial POA, this document names who makes medical decisions if you can’t make them yourself and outlines your wishes around end-of-life care. As physicians, we understand what that actually means. We’ve seen both sides of what happens when this document exists versus when it doesn’t.
The Document That Quietly Overrides Everything Else
Here’s the one most people underestimate: beneficiary designations.
Your retirement accounts, life insurance policies, and many bank and brokerage accounts do not follow your will. They do not follow your trust. They go directly to whoever is listed as the beneficiary, full stop, regardless of what any other document says.
I’ve heard versions of this story more times than I can count. A physician updates their trust, spends real money on a good attorney, gets everything structured properly. But the 401k still names an ex-spouse. Or a parent who passed away years ago. Or it lists the kids as primary beneficiaries with no age restriction, meaning an 18-year-old receives a million dollars with no structure around it.
This isn’t hypothetical. This happens.
The fix is straightforward, but you have to actually do it. Log into every retirement account, every life insurance policy, every account with a beneficiary field. Look at what it says. Ask whether it still reflects what you want. If the answer is no, change it.
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The Layer Most Generic Estate Attorneys Miss
If you own real estate, run a business, or have any significant complexity in your financial life, a general estate attorney who occasionally does wills is probably not the right fit. Your situation requires someone who understands how these pieces connect.
Real estate properties need to be titled correctly, not just for estate planning but for asset protection. Are they held in an LLC? Is that LLC referenced in your trust? Does the trust actually hold the LLC interest? These aren’t just formalities. They determine what your family inherits, how they inherit it, and what’s protected if a lawsuit enters the picture.
If you have a business, the same questions apply. Who inherits your interest? What happens to the business if you’re suddenly gone? Is there a buy-sell agreement in place? Does your partner know what the plan is?
And if you’re still practicing, malpractice exposure is a real factor in how your estate should be structured. Certain trust structures and asset titling strategies are specifically designed for high-liability professionals. This isn’t a one-size-fits-all conversation.
What to Actually Do
You don’t need to overhaul everything this week. But start with one thing.
Find your estate plan. Look at when it was written. Look at who’s named as executor, trustee, power of attorney, healthcare proxy. Look at your beneficiary designations on every financial account you own.
Then ask yourself one honest question: “Does this still reflect my life as it actually is today?“
If the answer is no, or even “I’m not sure,” that’s your signal.
Schedule a review with an estate attorney who has experience working with physicians or high-net-worth professionals with real estate and business interests. That conversation usually takes two or three meetings. It costs real money. And it’s worth every dollar.
The kindest thing you can do for the people you love is make sure that when the worst happens, the one thing they don’t have to deal with is a legal and financial mess you left behind. That’s what estate planning actually is. Not a morbid task to check off a list. A practical act of care for the people who matter most.
Were these helpful in any way? Make sure to sign up for the newsletter and join the Passive Income Docs Facebook Group for more physician-tailored content.
Peter Kim, MD is the founder of Passive Income MD, the creator of Passive Real Estate Academy, and offers weekly education through his Monday podcast, the Passive Income MD Podcast. Join our community at the Passive Income Doc Facebook Group.
Disclaimer: I am not a CPA, attorney, or financial advisor. The information in this post is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice. Please consult a qualified professional about your specific situation before making any decisions.
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“It’s a very, very, very big market,” he said. “In fact, it’s a bigger market than the overall traditional market as a whole.”
The distribution gap between reverse and conventional is part of what he’s hoping to address, Peskin said. Reverse mortgages are offered by approximately 2% of originators while HELOCs are offered by the other 98%, and building the product as a HELOC is an attempt to reach the broader originator base.
“Reverse mortgages are also offered by a very small subset of the overall market,” Peskin said. “We wanted to build a chassis that would give access to the bigger, broader market with a program that is what people are used to.”
Rising costs are adding urgency to the equity access problem, he said. HOA fees, homeowners insurance, real estate taxes, and everyday expenses are all moving higher, squeezing fixed-income homeowners who have wealth on paper but limited monthly cash flow.
“Why not tap into the largest asset you have in a comfortable way?” he said. “Just because it’s illiquid doesn’t mean you can’t have a creative way to tap into it that gives you control. And it’s a lot better than going out and ringing up $50,000 in credit card debt at 20%.”
Each quarter, the BiggerPockets Pulse survey captures how investors in our community feel about and behave in the current market.Our Q3 2026 results paint a profile of a resilient investor who continues to seek opportunities despite a difficult rate environment and geopolitical shocks.
However, there has been a gradual decline in overall sentiment since the beginning of the year. In Q1, the Pulse Index was 108 points. In Q2, the Pulse Index clocked in at 102 points. Today, the Index has fallen to 96 points. It’s still what we consider a neutral rating, but the downward trend remains steady.
Driving worsening sentiment are several challenges, most notably the difficulty of finding deals and securing capital. Additionally, investors are increasingly concerned about holding costs, including rising insurance premiums, property taxes, and maintenance expenses that erode cash flow.
Below are the results and highlights of the survey.
Behavior and Sentiment
When asked how conditions for residential real estate investing compare to the last 12 months, most investors settled into the middle. In Q3, 55% said conditions are about the same as before, up from 47.5% in Q2 and 43.5% in Q1. The share who feel conditions are better than before slipped to 19%, down from 25.5% last quarter, while 21.5% said things are worse than before.
That steady climb in the “about the same” answer says a lot. Investors increasingly see the market as holding in place, which fits the gradual cooling in overall sentiment we’ve tracked all year.
The outlook for the next 12 months tells the same story. A full 55% expect conditions to stay about the same, a sharp jump from 41% in Q2 and 36% in Q1. Only 19% expect conditions to improve somewhat, down from 35% last quarter, and just 1.5% expect a significant improvement. On the other side, 21% expect conditions to decline somewhat, and 4% expect a significant decline.
The takeaway is a flattening of expectations. Fewer investors are betting on a rebound anytime soon and are instead bracing for more of the same.
Even with that cautious mood, most investors are still playing offense. 53% say their main priority over the next 12 months is to increase their portfolio size, up from 45% in Q2, though shy of Q1’s 57%. Another 34% plan to optimize their existing portfolio, 12.5% are waiting and seeing, and only 1% intend to shrink.
This implies that this group is not sitting on the sidelines. They are focused on putting capital to work and hunting for deals that make sense, even in a down market.
Long-term rentals remain the strategy investors trust most, chosen by 55% in Q3 as the most successful strategy over the next 12 months, up from 48% in Q2 and back near Q1 levels. Owner-occupied house hacking came in a distant second at 18%, followed by mid-term rentals at just under 10% and house flipping at around 8.5%. Short-term rentals continue to lose favor, sitting at just 3%.
The message is consistency. When the market feels uncertain, investors lean toward the durable cash flow and lower turnover of long-term rentals.
Current Challenge
“Difficulty finding good deals” is now the single biggest challenge investors report, chosen by nearly 30% of respondents in Q3, up from 26% in Q2. “Rising expenses” like insurance and taxes and “lack of capital for new deals” follow close behind, each landing around 25%. High mortgage rates, once the defining complaint, have faded to 13%.
That tells a clear story. Investors are being squeezed by supply and cost at the same time. There is a shortage of inventory at prices that pencil out, and even when a deal appears, holding costs and thin financing options stand in the way of closing it.
Future Challenge
Projecting 12 months ahead, the picture shifts only slightly. Difficulty finding good deals remains at the top, at 28.5%, while rising expenses hold firm at around 25.5%. Lack of capital eases from 25% today to 22% as a future concern, while flat or falling rent prices climb to 7.5%, roughly double their share as a current challenge.
Conversely, it shows that investors feel increasingly confident about raising capital over time. Their main worry moves to what happens after closing, from rising insurance premiums and reassessed tax bills to the risk of soft rents, all factors they have little control over and all of which cut into cash flow.
Biggest Opportunity
On the opportunity side, investors are focused on leverage and price. The biggest perceived opportunity in Q3 is a better ability to negotiate, chosen by 27.5%. Falling prices climbed to 24%, up from 17.5% in Q2, as more investors come to see a softer market as a buyer’s advantage. Increasing inventory and better deal flow followed at 21.5%.
Lower mortgage rates, once a top hope at 28.5% back in Q1, dropped to 12.5%. That decline says investors have largely stopped waiting for rate relief and are instead looking to win on price and terms.
Market Outlook
On home prices, the consensus is a holding pattern. 46% of investors expect prices to stay flat nationally over the next 12 months, up from 42% in Q2 and just 28.5% in Q1. Beyond that, opinion is split evenly, with 25% expecting a mild decrease and 23% expecting a mild increase. Very few expect a swing of more than 5% in either direction.
Rents follow a similar pattern. 45% expect rent prices to stay flat, while 38% expect a modest increase between 0% and 5%. Only 12.5% expect a mild decrease. Taken together, investors see rents as flat to slightly higher, a steadier picture than the one they paint for home prices.
Rate expectations have drifted higher all year. 45% of investors now expect the average 30-year fixed rate to land between 6% and 6.49% a year from now, and another 30% expect it to sit between 6.5% and 6.99%. Compare that to Q1, when nearly 40% expected a rate in the 5.5%-5.99% range. Today, only 17.5% hold that view. Investors are underwriting higher rates as the new norm.
When it comes to geography, the Midwest is the clear favorite. 45% of investors named it the region with the best investing conditions in Q3, easily ahead of Southeast and Florida at 22.5% and Southwest and Texas at 13%. The Midwest’s appeal has held steady across all three quarters, reflecting its reputation for affordability and cash flow.
Views of the Fed and Inflation
Most investors are reserving judgment on Kevin Warsh and his potential impact on the Federal Reserve. 67% are neutral on what his tenure as chairman would mean for real estate investing. Another 21.5% see his leadership as positive and 5% as very positive, while just 5% see it as negative and 2% as very negative.
The neutrality hints at a wait-and-see attitude toward the Fed’s next moves on interest rates, perhaps with the ongoing Iran war in mind. It also shows that most investors are more concerned with what they can control than with what they cannot, and that personalities rank low on their list of considerations.
Rising inflation is weighing on investors’ plans. 43% say it makes them slightly less likely to invest over the next three months, and another 9.5% say much less likely. 38% are neutral, while only about 10% say it makes them more likely to invest.
That balance reflects real caution. For most investors, higher costs eat into margins and give them pause, even as a small share still leans into real estate as a hedge against rising prices, heeding Warren Buffett’s advice to be greedy only when others are fearful.
Geopolitics and AI
Worry about the war in Iran has eased since last quarter. In Q3, 47% of investors expect the war to have a neutral impact on the real estate market over the next three months, up sharply from 32.5% in Q2. The share expecting a negative impact fell to 41.5% from 52%, and those expecting a very negative impact dropped to 7.5% from 15%.
The shift suggests investors have absorbed the initial shock and no longer see the conflict as the market threat they did a quarter ago.
Views on AI job displacement are more divided. Nearly half of investors (49.5%) expect it to have a neutral impact on housing and rental demand over the next 12 months, down from 56% in Q2. The share expecting a negative impact rose to 37.5%, while those expecting a positive impact also grew, reaching 10%. The extremes shrank, with very negative falling to 2.5%.
Taken together, more investors are forming an opinion on AI, and while the balance tilts toward concern, a growing minority sees potential upside for housing demand.
About the survey
BiggerPockets is a community of retail real estate investors with over 3 million members who, collectively, make up the largest bloc of residential property investors in the United States. The BiggerPockets Pulse is a quarterly survey that measures and shares the sentiment and intended behavior of this important economic force.
Investors in this survey were solidly middle-aged. Just over half (53%) fall between 45 and 64, and the largest single age group (30%) is 45 to 54. Older investors are well represented, with 14% aged 65 or older, while only 8% are under 35 and just 1% are under 25. The sample was also heavily male-skewed, with 73% of respondents reporting as male and 27% as female.
Household income in the sample was at the higher end of national incomes, but not concentrated in any single group. The largest single group, 27%, earns between $100,000 and $150,000, and another 19% earn $300,000 or more per year. Just over a third fall somewhere between $150,000 and $300,000, and relatively few households, just 3%, earn below $50,000.
The respondents are seasoned investors for the most part. Four in ten own between two and five investment properties, and another one in five own six or more. About a quarter (26%) do not currently own an investment property, a reminder that the survey reaches both aspiring and established investors. Single-family homes are the most common asset class, held by roughly 72% of respondents, followed by small multifamily properties of two to four units.
That can make it hard for HR pros to guide employees through the grieving process, especially if they’ve never experienced loss themselves. But grief literacy training can help, according to Patricia Bravo, leadership development consultant and author of In the Room: When Grief Comes to Work.
Bravo sat down with HR Brew to share more about grief in the workplace.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What will HR pros learn from your book?
The concept that loss and grief are universal topics that we either have experienced or will be experiencing, and yet it’s one of the most underrepresented topics that’s being discussed in the workplace…We talk more about communication preferences and work styles. We talk about well-being. We talk about mental health, but somehow this topic hasn’t yet made it into the forefront. And, my hope is that HR professionals can really consider what the impact of grief literacy might be in their organization.
How can leaders and HR pros empathize with grief if they’ve never experienced it?
This is where grief literacy can really come in terms of helping professionals and organizations better understand what grief is and how it impacts people…Some of the behaviors that you might see people experience when they’re going through loss and grief might be misattributed to other things. For example, if you see somebody whose, suddenly, their performance isn’t as stellar as it’s been in the past, or they seem checked out, it could be easy to misattribute that to underperformance.
The other thing that organizations really wrestle with is the concept of: What is the best way for me to engage with an individual that has experienced loss and grief? And, my observation is that people don’t always know how to engage because they don’t want to say the wrong thing…My hope is that this book gives organizations and leaders an opportunity to begin the conversation wherever it happens to be in their organizations about grief literacy.
What is grief literacy?
Grief literacy is understanding the foundations and the fundamentals of loss and grief. Grief expertise is attributed to those people that are really deeply steeped and trained in grief, so those might be therapists, those might be thanatologists who study death, and dying, and bereavement.
What I’m suggesting is that we can all become grief literate…It might be as simple as knowing how to engage in a conversation with someone. It might include knowing that an individual’s needs might change from day to day and week to week, and even month to month.
It also includes appreciating that grief evolves over time, and that this often isn’t a one and done situation when you want to offer some support….When leaders and organizations appreciate that, they have a better opportunity to continue the health and well-being of the team member while also supporting them through what they’re going through, which ultimately affects the business.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Key Takeaways
The IKEA effect explains why many entrepreneurs overvalue struggle. Because effort creates emotional attachment, many founders unconsciously associate struggle with value.
Many entrepreneurs spend years training their nervous system to associate pressure with progress, so they recreate complexity, resist systems or keep overworking even after the business no longer needs it.
A business should challenge you and demand growth from you, but never require you to permanently live in survival mode to justify its existence. It should expand your life rather than swallowing it whole.
In 2011, behavioral scientists Michael Norton, Daniel Mochon and Dan Ariely published research around a curious psychological phenomenon now known as the IKEA Effect.
The idea was deceptively simple: People place disproportionately high value on things they partially build themselves.
In one experiment, participants assembled IKEA furniture and then assigned a value to it. Others looked at the exact same furniture already assembled.
The people who built the furniture valued it significantly more.
Does that mean the furniture was objectively better? No, but their effort changed their emotional attachment to it. The more work people put into creating something, the more meaning they project onto it.
Business owners do this constantly.
Entrepreneurs often overvalue struggle
Many entrepreneurs speak about difficult periods in business almost like war stories. The sleepless nights, financial pressure and uncertainty become badges of honor.
Part of that response makes complete sense — I did it, too. Building a company is genuinely difficult, and resilience matters.
The more interesting change happens later, when some business owners begin unconsciously associating struggle itself with value.
If something feels difficult, they assume it must be important. “Nothing worth having in life is easy” is the justification. If growth feels smooth, they become suspicious. If life starts becoming calmer, they wonder whether they are losing their edge.
Why easier paths feel emotionally uncomfortable
I once spoke with a business owner whose company had finally reached stability after years of struggle. The team was strong, and revenue had become predictable. Operational problems had reduced dramatically.
Wouldn’t you agree that objectively, life had improved?
Well, he hated it. Not consciously, of course.
He kept creating unnecessary complexity inside the business. Priorities shifted every few weeks, and he seemed unable to sit comfortably inside the very rewards that his past struggles had brought him.
At one point, he said something fascinating: “It should feel better now, but I don’t know who I am anymore…”
That sentence explains a great deal about entrepreneurship. Many business owners spend years training their nervous system to associate pressure with progress, so peace begins to feel unfamiliar. The mind starts searching for friction again.
Why entrepreneurs struggle to trust ease
Many business owners become deeply comfortable with pressure because pressure accompanied every important stage of growth. Those difficult years shaped them, so solving hard problems became part of how they understood themselves.
Over time, the mind created an association: “Hard must mean valuable.” That is why some entrepreneurs feel strangely unsettled when businesses become more mature.
A smooth quarter can feel less emotionally satisfying than a chaotic one. Simplicity is suspicious. Stability can even feel like stagnation.
All of this is happening while the business is healthy; the owner has simply spent years wiring struggle into their understanding of progress.
This creates an unusual stalemate. The entrepreneur achieves the very freedom they originally wanted, then unconsciously rejects it, recreating complexity because what they set out to achieve no longer feels emotionally familiar.
Why this creates bad business decisions
The IKEA Effect helps explain why some owners resist simplification.
A founder may reject systems that reduce operational pressure because being needed feels more valuable. A business owner may continue working extreme hours long after the company needs it because exhaustion still feels connected to worth.
Some entrepreneurs even distrust businesses that run smoothly without constant sacrifice. The irony is difficult to miss!
The original purpose of building the business was often freedom. Over time, the owner can become psychologically dependent on the struggle that freedom was supposed to eliminate.
What healthier ambition looks like
Strong business owners eventually learn an important distinction: “Difficulty does not automatically mean meaning.”
Pressure ≠ progress!
Some of the best companies in the world operate with extraordinary calm behind the scenes. That’s because they have strong teams that replace heroics, and long‑term thinking removes constant urgency.
That kind of leadership may look less exciting on social media, but believe me, it usually performs far better over decades.
A different way to measure success
The IKEA Effect tells us another important thing about business owner psychology: We naturally become attached to what costs us effort.
Business owners must be careful not to confuse emotional attachment with wisdom.
Depending on your stage of life and business, it may even sound unintuitive now, but the strongest move in business is not pushing harder, but removing unnecessary friction. Don’t add; declutter.
This is one of the core ideas behind living a Zero Regret Life.
The #1 thing I tell my clients when I coach them is that we are not avoiding ambition or lowering our standards. Our goal is to build success in a way that does not slowly consume the person creating it.
Many entrepreneurs assume that meaning comes from sacrifice alone, so exhaustion proves commitment, and that constant pressure somehow validates the journey.
But eventually they all face an uncomfortable question: “What happens if you build an extraordinary business and wake up years later, having become disconnected from your own life, sacrificing friends, family, leisure and all the other important dimensions of life in the process?”
A business should challenge you, stretch you and demand growth from you, but never require you to permanently live in survival mode to justify its existence.
The entrepreneurs I admire most don’t “perform exhaustion” for the world. They are the people who built something ambitious while still remaining present in their relationships, protective of their health and their family, and capable of experiencing peace without guilt.
That is a very different definition of success.
A Zero Regret Life means building a business that expands your life rather than swallowing it whole. It means creating success you can actually live inside, not merely admire from a distance while running on fumes.
Build something meaningful enough that your life becomes larger because of it, not smaller. The most dangerous thing in business ownership is not failure but becoming successful at a life you no longer enjoy living.
Key Takeaways
The IKEA effect explains why many entrepreneurs overvalue struggle. Because effort creates emotional attachment, many founders unconsciously associate struggle with value.
Many entrepreneurs spend years training their nervous system to associate pressure with progress, so they recreate complexity, resist systems or keep overworking even after the business no longer needs it.
A business should challenge you and demand growth from you, but never require you to permanently live in survival mode to justify its existence. It should expand your life rather than swallowing it whole.
In 2011, behavioral scientists Michael Norton, Daniel Mochon and Dan Ariely published research around a curious psychological phenomenon now known as the IKEA Effect.
The idea was deceptively simple: People place disproportionately high value on things they partially build themselves.
In one experiment, participants assembled IKEA furniture and then assigned a value to it. Others looked at the exact same furniture already assembled.
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AREIT is the first Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in the Philippines, formed primarily to own and invest in an income-generating commercial portfolio of office, retail, hotel, and industrial land properties in the country that meets its investment criteria. When the opportunity arises, it may explore other types of real estate properties available in the market.
After a series of strikes and escalations in the Middle East, it appears mortgage rates might soon match the highs seen since the war began.
The highest point for the 30-year fixed since the Iranian conflict got underway was 6.75% back on May 19th, per Mortgage News Daily.
Since that time, they dropped about 0.25% thanks to a ceasefire and peace deal.
But that has since fallen apart and now mortgage rates are close to testing those highs once again.
However, given a lot is “baked in,” mortgage rates might be somewhat capped at these levels.
Mortgage Rates Approaching War Time Highs
The 30-year fixed has had a rough time since hitting 3.5-year lows back at the end of February.
And it’s pretty much all because of an unexpected conflict that broke out in the Middle East.
Before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the 30-year fixed was at its lowest point since 2022.
If you recall, rates were still in the 3s to start 2022, but quickly doubled as the year went on.
Though we were only able to muster a sub-6% rate back in February of this year, it was the best rate seen since the latter half of 2022.
That was a very bad year for rates, as they more than doubled in a calendar year once QE ended and inflation began to become a major concern.
Still, getting back there was a huge positive after the 30-year fixed climbed as high as 8% in late 2023.
But those late February levels seem like a distant memory now, with the typical mortgage rate quote back in the high 6s.
Today, the 10-year bond yield, which acts as a bellwether for mortgage rates, rose above 4.60% again on escalations in the Middle East.
The strikes also caused oil prices to rise about five percent as the Strait of Hormuz saw traffic come to a standstill again.
Long story short, the peace deal appears to be toast and tensions seem to be as high as ever.
The market is responding to that risk by selling off and mortgage rates will suffer as well.
Is a Lot of the Move Higher in Mortgage Rates Already Priced In?
However, it’s important to remember the context here. Much of this is already priced in.
Mortgage rates aren’t back near their pre-war levels. They aren’t sub-6% anymore or close to it.
They are priced for the war and the higher oil prices and the inflation that comes with it.
So despite yet another setback in a seemingly hopeless quest for peace, it’s perhaps not as bad as it looks.
What I mean by that is mortgage rates are basically at the top of their range that includes a war premium.
They were as low as 5.99% per Mortgage News Daily back in late February and as high as 6.85% last July.
At last glance, they are around 6.70%, which means they’re basically at their 52-week highs. Or just about.
One could argue that that’s good news because it means the risks are already priced in.
If rates were still low and we were ignoring the developments in the Middle East, that’d be another story.
But it’s already reflected in the price of a mortgage today. You are no longer able to get a sub-6% 30-year fixed (without paying discount points).
Instead, you’re paying a premium of about 75 basis points (0.75%) versus those pre-war levels.
More Downside Potential for Mortgage Rates Near Their 52-Week Highs
In addition, the market isn’t as spooked or bothered by the goings on in the Middle East anymore.
Traders have seen this movie before, multiple times. As such, further upside risk might be limited, especially when you factor in what’s already baked in to the price.
Conversely, what might surprise traders would be peaceful developments, which could lead to lower mortgage rates again!
Taken together, there might be limited upside risk and more downside potential for mortgage rates, despite current headwinds.
Read on: Try my new mortgage rate calculator to compare different interest rates side by side.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 20 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
