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Rate-hike odds rise, a warning sign for lenders


The share of economists expecting the next Federal Open Market Committee action to be a rate hike continues to grow, the latest Wolters Kluwer survey found.

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The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey was taken on July 6 and 7, which was before the June meeting minutes were released. But it was a couple of weeks after Kevin Warsh, the new chairman, noted that half of the governors participating in the dot plot expected an increase in short-term rates.

“The Blue Chip panel took note of the Fed shift, but on balance, the consensus view on monetary policy changed only marginally,” the Wolters Kluwer report commented. “A solid majority (66%) expects the next change from the Fed to be a rate cut, although most do not see the cut coming until next year.”

How many economists expect a short-time rate hike

Over one-third of the panel in the July BCEI survey, 34%, think a short-term rate increase is on the table. This compared with approximately one-quarter of the panelists in the June report and 9% for the prior two months.

On a month-to-month basis, some panelists have pushed up their timing for the next increase. Expectations for movement at the July meeting remain at 2%, but the share which expects a change during the September gathering grew to 15% in the latest survey, from 4% one month ago. In May, however, 22% said the FOMC would act at the September meeting.

No economist expects a change at the October meeting, while 83% said “later.” The later response in the June survey was 93%.

The majority of panelists which expect a rate cut do not think the FOMC will act until the middle of 2027, the Wolters Kluwer report says. They predict a single 25 basis point reduction next year.

Changes in views for the Fed Funds Rate

The consensus for the Fed Funds Rate for this year and next are now higher versus the June survey. By the end of this year, the BCEI panelists put the FFR at 3.67%, up from 3.56%. For 2027, the consensus expects 3.41%, compared with 3.32% a month ago.

The effective FFR as of July 9 is 3.62% according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

While the FFR is not used in setting long-term mortgage rates, investors generally price expectations about the economy and how the FOMC acts into the 10-year Treasury yield, which is one of the things used, along with secondary market pricing.

“Consensus expectations for the 10-year benchmark yield have risen since February (along with market rates),” the report said. “Going forward, little further change in longer-term yields is expected over the forecast period.”

On July 10, the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.57%, according to Yahoo Finance. The last time the 10-year closed under 4% was on Feb. 27. The prior day, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey had the 30-year fixed under 6%. The following weekend, the conflict with Iran began. Between the conflict and concerns over inflation, the 10-year Treasury, along with mortgage rates, have increased.

This week’s Freddie Mac PMMS put the 30-year fixed at 6.49%.



XLE vs ICLN ETF Showdown Traditional Energy Meets Clean Energy. Which ETF Is the Better Buy?


Choosing between State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE +0.47%) and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN 0.41%) comes down to a preference for low-cost, domestic fossil-fuel giants versus a global, ESG-screened portfolio of renewable energy developers.

XLE provides a liquid, concentrated vehicle for betting on the traditional energy giants within the S&P 500. Conversely, ICLN offers diversified international exposure to the clean energy transition. This match-up highlights the differences in cost, volatility, and sector focus between traditional and sustainable energy strategies.

(cost & size)

Metric ICLN XLE
Issuer iShares SPDR
Share price $19.33 (as of 2026-07-09) $54.82 (as of 2026-07-09)
Expense ratio 0.39% 0.08%
1-yr return (as of 2026-07-09) 43.70% 28.40%
Dividend yield 0.90% 2.80%
Beta 1.10 0.43
AUM $2.6B $36.9B

Beta measures price volatility relative to the S&P 500; beta is calculated from five-year monthly returns. The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months. Dividend yield is the trailing-12-month distribution yield based on the closing prices of July 9.

Cost-conscious investors may find the State Street fund more affordable, as its 0.08% expense ratio is significantly lower than ICLN’s 0.39%. Furthermore, XLE currently offers a higher payout with its 2.80% trailing yield.

Performance & risk comparison

Metric ICLN XLE
Max drawdown (5 yr) (57.20%) (26.00%)
Growth of $1,000 over 5 years (total return) $889 $2,487

What’s inside

The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF provides 100% exposure to the energy sector, holding 22 large-cap companies from the S&P 500. Its largest positions include Exxonmobil Holdings Corp (XOM +1.03%) at 20.3%, Chevron Corp (CVX +1.35%) at 14.4%, and Conocophillips (COP +0.94%) at 5.9%. It was launched in 1998. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF has paid $1.52 per share over the trailing 12 months, which on its recent ~$54.82 share price works out to a 2.80% yield.

The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF tracks an index of international companies focused on renewable energy, utilizing an ESG screen to select its 100 holdings across technology (33.8%), utilities (33.4%), and industrials (31.3%). Top holdings include Bloom Energy Corp (BE 4.74%) at 14.8%, First Solar Inc (FSLR 0.29%) at 8.4%, and Nextpower Inc (NXT 1.06%) at 7.2%. It was launched in 2008. iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has paid $0.18 per share over the trailing 12 months, which on its recent ~$19.33 share price works out to a 0.90% yield.

Which is the better fund?

Do you want to invest in fossil fuel businesses or renewable energy innovators? If you have a strong feeling either way, each is a good fund for your objectives. But they have significant differences for those seeking the best energy ETF to invest in.

The fossil fuel fund, XLE, is incredibly concentrated, with its top 10 holdings comprising 72% of assets. It’s an all U.S. stock fund that is just about equally weighted in large-caps and mid-caps, with a smidgen of small-caps. In addition to its 1-year return of 29.3%, XLE has annualized returns of 13.3%, 18.8%, and 8.9% over the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year time frames.

By comparison, the renewable energy fund is more diverse, with 100 holdings and 54% oif its assets in its top 10 holdings. ICLN is 34% in large-caps, 45% mid-caps, and 21% small-caps. The portfolio’s holdings are 42% growth stocks, while 47% of the portfolio’s stocks are U.S. businesses.

Performance is where ICLN stands out: the fund is beating XLE handily in the past three months, year to date, and 1-year periods. Long-term, ICLN has returned 5.0%,-1.2%, and 10.7% in the 3-, 5-, and 10-year look-backs, reflecting the volatility that comes with renewable stocks due to tax policy and interest rate sensitivity. Still, its better long-term performance and the growth outlook for clean energy makes ICLN the better buy.

For more guidance on ETF investing, check out the full guide at this link.

AI Is Taking Over This Crucial Part of the Recruiting Process


Key Takeaways

  • AI is moving beyond sorting through resumes and extending its reach to early-stage job interviews.
  • Employers aren’t touting the use of AI systems in hiring, partly because of debate around AI.
  • Some companies are turning to AI to help handle a flood of applications; crypto platform Coinbase, for example, receives 1.5 million job applications per year.

Bijo Thomas was expecting a human being to interview him for a job as a senior AI solutions architect role at talent acquisition brand Experis. When he opened up his laptop for an interview, he instead came face-to-face with an AI avatar named Sophie. 

Thomas recently told Business Insider about the experience. He said that Sophie looked like a human being from the neck up, and she smiled and asked follow-up questions throughout the interview. 

“It was very realistic,” Thomas told BI. He passed the interview and went through two more rounds, each time with human interviewers. He got the job and joined in May.  

Thomas’s experience reflects a growing trend. AI is moving beyond sorting through large piles of resumes and extending its reach to early-stage job interviews. Companies like cryptocurrency platform Coinbase and automation software company Zapier have quietly begun using AI to screen candidates in interviews, BI reported. 

Industries like retail and manufacturing first used AI in job interviews to meet high-volume hiring targets. Now the practice is gaining steam for weeding out candidates seeking full-time, white-collar positions. 

Employers are reluctant to publicize their dependence on AI 

Employers aren’t touting the use of AI systems in hiring, partly because of debate around AI. According to BI, it remains to be seen whether AI chatbots have a positive impact by reducing human bias in hiring or a negative effect by alienating candidates. 

“The interview process is arguably the most human part of recruiting,” Kyle Lagunas, an HR tech industry analyst, told BI. He added that employers could be concerned about how it would look to candidates to outsource this human element of recruiting to AI. 

At some companies, however, applicants must pass through AI interviews before they can make an impression on human interviewers — and at times, the AI gatekeepers are necessary due to the sheer volume of job applicants. For example, Coinbase faces a flood of applications, about 1.5 million per year, L.J. Brock, the platform’s chief people officer, told BI. 

“No matter how big my recruiting team is, no matter how hard we try, we can’t get to 1.5 million people,” he told the outlet. 

Coinbase turned to AI to manage interviews starting in August. The company introduced an AI interviewer named Milo to handle interviews for roles below the director level. Since Milo’s release, Coinbase has brought on more than 240 new hires initially filtered by the AI. 

Another company finds ‘hidden gems’ with AI interviews

Coinbase isn’t the only company to experiment with AI interviews. Zapier also rolled out AI interviews last year after realizing that its job postings immediately drew thousands of applicants — far more than it was possible for humans to screen on their own.

Tracy St.Dic, Zapier’s global head of talent, told BI that AI interviews have allowed the company to screen up to five times more applicants than normal and allowed candidates to advance through the hiring process on the basis of more than just their application and resume. St.Dic called these applicants “hidden gems.”

Key Takeaways

  • AI is moving beyond sorting through resumes and extending its reach to early-stage job interviews.
  • Employers aren’t touting the use of AI systems in hiring, partly because of debate around AI.
  • Some companies are turning to AI to help handle a flood of applications; crypto platform Coinbase, for example, receives 1.5 million job applications per year.

Bijo Thomas was expecting a human being to interview him for a job as a senior AI solutions architect role at talent acquisition brand Experis. When he opened up his laptop for an interview, he instead came face-to-face with an AI avatar named Sophie. 

Thomas recently told Business Insider about the experience. He said that Sophie looked like a human being from the neck up, and she smiled and asked follow-up questions throughout the interview. 

“It was very realistic,” Thomas told BI. He passed the interview and went through two more rounds, each time with human interviewers. He got the job and joined in May.  

Don't Invest in Indian Stocks Until You Watch This 2026 Microcap Strategy! Pawan Bharaddia Explains



On this episode of The Money Mindset, we deep dive into the world of microcap investing
The guest on our show is Pawan Bharaddia, the CIO of Equitree Capital, someone who has 25 years of equity investing in India.
Equitree Capital is a SEBI registered PMS firm
Over the past five years, Equitree has delivered a 25% CAGR, consistently ranking among India’s top-performing PMS strategies

🔥 What You’ll Learn in This Podcast:
-How to understand micro cap investing
-Is the worst over in the mid , small and micro cap space ?
-What is Pawans investing mindset ?
-The red and green flags before investing in a stock
-Sectors to invest into in 2026
-Why Indian markets are not performing
-The most important parameters to look for before investing

⚡Key Themes Covered:
Stock Market |
Investing Strategy | Wealth Creation | Small and midcap investing | Commodities | Risk Management | Investor Psychology

📌 Don’t Miss:
This is not your typical “get rich quick” conversation.
It’s a real, no-nonsense breakdown of markets, money, and mindset from someone who has seen multiple market cycles.

0:00 Intro
2:46 Investing in micro caps
4:02 How to balance stocks
6:34 Identifying themes
9:12 Entrepreneur mindset in India
11:09 Your expertise & solar farms
34:57 Water as a sector
38:30 Sectors where India is competitive
40:53 HBL engineering as a stock
43:57 India’s defense space
46:50 Investing in the market
48:37 Biggest learnings?

source

Amex Platinum Terms Updated: Peacock Bundle No Longer Eligible for Digital Entertainment Credit


Amex Platinum Entertainment Credit Updated

American Express has quietly updated the terms for the Platinum Card’s Digital Entertainment Credit, and one small but important change could affect cardholders who use the benefit for Peacock.

The updated language now specifies that only standalone Peacock subscriptions qualify for the monthly digital entertainment credit. Peacock subscriptions purchased as part of a bundle are no longer eligible.

For now cardholders have successfully received the credit when Peacock is bundled with Apple TV. This was an easy way to use the credit for Apple TV which is not possible otherwise. With the revised terms, American Express has clarified that those bundled purchases are excluded.

The Digital Entertainment Credit itself remains unchanged. After enrollment, Platinum cardholders can still receive up to $25 in statement credits each month on eligible purchases made directly with participating providers, including Disney+, Disney+ bundles, ESPN streaming services, Hulu, The New York Times, Paramount+, Peacock (standalone only), The Wall Street Journal, YouTube Premium, and YouTube TV.

Guru’s Wrap-up

This isn’t a major devaluation, but it is still an important update for some cardholders. A small change like this could mean missing out on up to $25 in monthly statement credits if your Peacock subscription is bundled instead of billed directly.

Senators Propose Letting Students Use Financial Aid To Pay For CLEP And Prior Learning Exams


A new bipartisan Senate bill would let students put federal financial aid toward the cost of prior learning assessments. These include the exams and portfolio reviews that award college credit for knowledge gained on the job, in the military, or through other training outside the classroom.

Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tim Sheehy introduced the Credit for Prior Learning Act (S. 4897) on June 24. The bill would add an allowance of up to $2,000 per award year to a student’s cost of attendance for “reasonable costs, including test fees,” tied to credit for prior learning assessments.

Why It Matters

Credit for prior learning (CPL) can shave months or years off a degree and thousands off tuition, but the assessments themselves cost money and federal aid generally can’t be used to pay for them today. 

Because the bill works through the cost of attendance formula, students could use Pell Grants and federal student loans they already qualify for toward assessment fees, rather than paying out of pocket.

What Would Be Covered

The bill doesn’t name specific exams. Instead, it defines an eligible assessment as any evaluation of knowledge learned outside a college that tests for evidence of learning (not just time spent), meets standards set by subject matter experts, and results in real academic credit without additional coursework. The major options students use today:

  • CLEP: The College Board’s 30-plus exam lineup is the most widely accepted credit-by-exam program. Exams cost $97 each, plus a test center or remote proctoring fee that varies by site. (Students who complete free online courses through Modern States can get vouchers that cover the exam fee.)
  • DSST: Originally built for the military but open to everyone, DSST offers 30-plus exams at $100 each (plus test site fees), accepted at more than 1,500 colleges.
  • TECEP: Thomas Edison State University’s exams run $53 per credit for lower-level subjects and $80 per credit for upper-level.
  • Portfolio assessments: Faculty review documentation of work and training experience. Costs vary widely by school. URI charges $30 per credit (about $90 for a three-credit course), while Penn State charges a flat $390 whether or not credit is awarded.
  • Challenge exams and training evaluations: Many colleges offer their own faculty-built exams (fees vary by school), and the bill’s definition also covers institutional evaluations of employer and military training, often based on ACE credit recommendations.

A note about AP exams ($99 each in 2026). Yes, they are credit-by-exam, but they’re administered through high schools and paid well before college enrollment — so the financial aid mechanism here wouldn’t help most AP test-takers in practice.

This same issue arises for things like taking CLEP exams in middle or high school. There’s no way to get financial aid to pay for it. It only really would work right before college or while in the early years of college.

Research from CAEL and WICHE shows how much prior learning credit moves the needle: adults who earned 12 or more CPL credits saved 9 to 14 months of time in college and $1,500 to $10,200 in tuition. Adults with CPL credit are 17% more likely to graduate, and that rises to 25% at community colleges and 19% for Pell Grant recipients.

How This Connects

College is expensive, and reducing time in college is one of the simplest ways to reduce total costs.

With the average cost of college rising more than 2.5% last year, testing out of even a semester’s worth of courses is one of the few levers students control. We’ve covered how graduating early can cut total college costs and CPL is often the fastest path to doing it, especially for adult learners returning to finish a degree.

The bill was referred to the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, where neither sponsor holds a seat. Most standalone higher education bills stall in committee, but cost-of-attendance tweaks like this one can also end up riding along on a larger appropriations package. If enacted, the changes would take effect July 1, 2027.

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Colleges Are Requiring SAT and ACT Scores Again — Here’s the Full List for 2027

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College Tuition Up 914% Since 1983, J.P. Morgan Reports

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Editor: Colin Graves

The post Senators Propose Letting Students Use Financial Aid To Pay For CLEP And Prior Learning Exams appeared first on The College Investor.

Trump withholds signature on housing bill as midnight deadline looms


A housing bill with deep industry support

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed the Senate 85-5 and the House 358-32, reflecting rare bipartisan agreement on an issue that has shadowed American housing policy for years.

The legislation bundles more than 50 provisions targeting housing supply, construction barriers, large institutional investor activity in the single-family market, and financing access, including a pilot program for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgages under $100,000.

The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that the national median home sales price rose 1.8% year over year in June 2026 to $440,600, an all-time high in data going back to 1999. White House economists estimated earlier this year a shortage of 10 million homes nationally.

A new LendingTree study on starter home affordability published this week found that only 38% of non-homeowner households in the US can afford the average $200,000 starter home, deepening the urgency many in the industry attach to the bill’s fate.

What happens next

Under constitutional rules governing presidential action, a bill becomes law automatically after 10 days — excluding Sundays — if the president neither signs nor vetoes it while Congress remains in session.

Tech shares lift global markets while oil slips as Iran war keeps traders on edge



World shares mostly advanced Friday, helped by buying of technology-related shares, while oil prices slipped as traders watched for developments in the Iran war.

Tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated after President Donald Trump said the Iran war ceasefire agreement was “over” and as the United States and Iran exchanged attacks.

In early European trading, Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% to 10,478.98. France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1% to 8,322.31, while Germany’s DAX also gave up 0.1% to 25,082.58.

The future for the S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%.

In Asian trading, South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.5% to 7,475.94, recovering some of its losses from earlier in the week. Shares in memory chipmaker SK Hynix, whose debut on the Nasdaq in New York is set for Friday, fell 0.3% in Seoul.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% to 68,557.73. SoftBank Group, a key investor in OpenAI, jumped 10.7%, while chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron added 2.7%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.6% to 24,175.12 and the Shanghai Composite index fell 1% to 3,996.16.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% to 8,806.00.

India’s Sensex added 1.2%.

Oil prices yo-yoed again on Friday as global oil supplies remained under pressure due to a limited numbers of vessels able to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for energy transport.

Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.5% to $75.94 per barrel. It was trading near $72 a barrel before the war began in late February.

Benchmark U.S. crude shed 0.5% to $71.71 a barrel.

On Thursday, Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.8% and the Dow picked up 0.3%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 1.3% to 26,206.89.

Semiconductors stocks led gains. Micron Technology jumped 4.5% after the memory chipmaker said it would increase its U.S. investments, citing “surging demand for memory in the AI era.”

Shares of AMD, or Advanced Micro Devices, surged 5.7%. Marvell Technology rose 5%, while ON Semiconductor added 4.4%.

In other dealings early Friday, the U.S. dollar fell to 161.71 Japanese yen from 162.37 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1432, up from $1.1430.

The yen gained against the dollar after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told a parliamentary committee that the government plans to encourage big pension funds to invest more in domestic, yen-denominated assets.

Brain Scans Reveal the Exact Reason Everyone Hates Open-Plan Offices



A new neuroscience study shows that open layouts act as a constant tax on your attention, forcing your brain to work significantly harder just to stay focused.

Purchase $25 In Magnum Ice Cream Products, Get $50 Fanatics Giftcard (Stack With Paze)


The Offer

Direct link to offer

  • Get a promo code for $50 off your Fanatics order when you purchase $25 of any Magnum Ice Cream Company products at any retail store.

Our Verdict

Reader SDubbs was able to triple stack ($71 worth of stuff for $1, plus the $25 in ice cream products):

I hadn’t really thought of stacking this with paze when I first saw this, but makes this deal significantly better. Safeway is also doing BOGO on some of the eligible items.