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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Capital at risk. Past performance is used as a guide only. It is no guarantee of future returns. Different funds and asset classes carry varying levels of risk depending on the geographical region and industry sector. You should make yourself aware of these specific risks prior to investing. Prevailing tax rates and reliefs are dependent on your individual circumstances and are subject to change. We do not provide tax advice. Any examples used in the video are for illustrative purposes only and you may get less back than the figures shown. This video does not constitute personal advice. We do not take any responsibility for third party websites and content we may link to from this video.

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Copyright © James Shackell 2025. All rights reserved.
The author asserts their moral right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author of this channel and any video published on it.

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Prediction markets caught insider traders in real time. Congress wants to shut them down anyway



Hours before U.S. missiles struck Tehran on Saturday, February 28, six Polymarket accounts placed bets that military action would begin. They were bang on the money right. Together, they raked in $1.2 million, with one account turning $61,000 into nearly $493,000—a whopping 821% return. Most of these accounts were created and funded within 24 hours of the strikes. The whiff stench of insider trading is unmistakable.

This was no isolated incident. Similar patterns emerged in January, when freshly created accounts netted over $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, just hours before the operation went public.

This couldn’t have come at a worse time for Kalshi and Polymarket, which are facing a growing number of lawsuits demanding that prediction markets be regulated like gambling. With war-related betting stirring up scandal, a group of congressional Democrats has put forward the “Prediction Markets are Are Gambling Act”— legislation that seeks to ban prediction market bets on elections, government actions, war and sports. They are making a big mistake.

Prediction markets haven’t created the insider trading problem out of thin air. It has been an unsavory feature of financial markets for many a decade for decades. What Kalshi and Polymarket have done is drag this dirty secret out into the open with the help of transparent and immutable blockchain technology. Crypto transactions are recorded on a ledger that anyone can see and cannot be altered or obfuscated. This makes prediction markets the most useful and precise tool for eradicating exposing insider trading that has ever existed—a tool Congress should rely on heavily, not legislate out of existence.

Following the Breadcrumbs

Regulators already see the opportunity. On February 25, the CFTC’s Division of Enforcement issued a formal advisory after two cases of insider trading on Kalshi. The Commission is currently collecting public comments on how these markets should be regulated. But it’s clear that prosecution is the next step. As U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton put it, “because it’s a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud,” and federal prosecutors have since met directly with Polymarket to explore charges.

But prosecution in this area is only possible if these markets are allowed to function, unmasking insider trading that has, until now, largely happened behind closed doors. The system, as it currently stands, makes insider trading prosecution incredibly difficult. Perhaps that’s why no member of Congress—not even Nancy Pelosi, whose husband’s suspiciously well-timed trades became a national scandal—has ever been prosecuted for profiting off from privileged information.

Prediction markets, for the first time, create a trail of breadcrumbs that is hard to ignore. Timestamped, public, and—crucially—independent of established institutions. That independence matters: no institutional pressure can make inconvenient data disappear. No amount of political pressure can erase transactions on the blockchain. And so prediction markets, for all their flaws, can lead directly to the doorstep of those profiting from privileged information—prosecutors need only follow the breadcrumbs.

Nowhere to Hide

This isn’t theoretical. A recent, concrete example proves it can be done. In February, an Israeli Air Force reservist was indicted, along with an alleged accomplice, on suspicion of placing bets on Polymarket based on classified information about the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025.

Less than a year from wrongdoing to prosecution. That’s a faster timeline than virtually any comparable insider trading case in traditional finance.

And it doesn’t even require sophisticated infrastructure. Independent blockchain analysts like ZachXBT and Bubblemaps are already tracing these transactions voluntarily. In the latest case of war-related betting, Bubblemaps quickly identified that the funds came from a wallet called “nothingeverhappens911,” which was connected to another account called “Skoobidoobnj” through a shared Binance deposit address—and this account turned out to be connected to two further Polymarket accounts that placed similar trades. Little by little, the walls are closing in.

Granted, these are obviously anonymous accounts. There are ways traders can obfuscate their transactions and hide their locations. They can use crypto mixers in an attempt to “wash” the funds. In short, they can make prosecutors’ lives difficult. But many things can’t be hidden on-chain: funding patterns, timing of entry, fund flows, and connected wallet addresses. And if a bunch of independent enthusiasts can uncover this much information with public tools, this fast, imagine what a properly coordinated and resourced regulatory effort could achieve.

Eradicate It Once and For All

Yes, prediction markets gave insiders an opportunity to profit from disaster. But it would be naive to think that this hasn’t happened in the past. This time, however, we know exactly which bets were placed, when, and how much profit was made.

Now it’s time to follow the breadcrumbs to find the missing piece of the puzzle: the identity of these traders. The CFTC is ready to move, the forensic tools already exist, and the April 30 public comment deadline on prediction market regulation is an open invitation to get this right. Fund the enforcement, strengthen the penalties, mandate identity verification above meaningful trading thresholds—but keep prediction markets open. Congress should lean into this opportunity, instead of killing the very tool that shines a light on a problem they have struggled to eradicate for decades.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

Fundamental Growth | Research & Policy Center


Conventional growth indices suffer from two important shortcomings. First, stocks that are anti-value (very expensive) are not necessarily growth stocks. The decision to include a stock in a growth index should be based on fundamental growth measures, such as growth in sales, profits, or R&D spending, rather than price-based measures. Second, when these indices are weighted by objective measures of growth, rather than by market value, performance markedly improves. Overpaying for growth is unhelpful. We also assert that some stocks with poor growth prospects and unattractive valuations may have no place in either value or growth indices.

[Now Live – Rebook] United Announces Changes That Benefit United Cardholders


Update 4/2/26: These changes are now live, rebook if advantageous. 

United has announced changes that benefit United cardholders.

Rewards Earned From Flights

One change ishow rewards are earned when booking flights, with Chase United cardholders set to benefit and everybody else will be worse off. The new changes will go into effect for tickets purchased on or after April 2, 2026. The new earn rates are as follows:

The old or current earn rates are as follows:

Seems like cardholders are one points off better and non cardholders are two point off worse? You also still get the bonus from your credit card as well. Basic economy earning will also be restricted to elites or cardholders. 

Award Discounts

Cardholders will save at least 10% on every flight they book and 15% with Premier status. 

Award Space

Cardholders will also get access to Saver Award inventory in United Polaris® Business Class. Previously this was only available to loyalty members with Platinum and 1K status. 

Our Verdict

These days loyalty programs and credit cards are really the ones driving airlines to any level of profitability so it’s not a huge surprise that United wants to encourage more loyalty members to become cardholders. For most people actual travel doesn’t drive a meaningful amount of miles/points anyway (especially when we are talking about a few points per $1 spent), I can still see elites being upset at these changes especially access to award inventory. 

Overall I think this is a devaluation for consumers overall and an interesting way to do one. 

7 Ways Homeowners Use a HELOC to Access Their Home Equity


If you locked in a low mortgage rate a few years ago, the last thing you want to do is give it up. But you’ve also been watching your home equity grow and wondering, is there a way to put that money to work without starting over with a new mortgage?

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning to Nashville and Orlando



From the mid-2000s through the late 2010s, San Francisco was a magnet for young graduates driven largely by Web 2.0 and the mobile tech boom. It was a cool city that boasted high-paying jobs and promised a breezy West Coast lifestyle.

But in the past several years, younger workers have been ditching San Francisco for cheaper cities and better work-life balance. It started with a pandemic exodus, as workers moved to be closer to their families or to pursue a different lifestyle; then they steadily drifted toward Texas and Florida, where jobs were plentiful and rent was more manageable. In fact, a survey by global architecture firm Gensler showed nearly half of San Francisco’s young, childless adults were contemplating a move.

And now a new report from commercial real estate and investment management firm JLL shows there’s a third chapter in San Francisco’s migration script in which younger generations are moving to “welcomer cities” like Nashville and Orlando.

JLL now defines Nashville and Orlando as “welcomer” cities because they still offer plenty of corporate job opportunities, but are more affordable than large cities. 

“Specifically, Nashville’s outsized cultural presence and Orlando’s favorable tax policy make them powerful magnets for talent,” Travis McCready, head of industries, leasing advisory at JLL, told Fortune

McCready pointed out “welcomer” cities overall have a net migration rate of 5.2% over the past three years, while “anchor” cities like New York and the Bay Area grew just 0.6% from migration over the same time period.

What this also means is “welcomer” cities like Nashville and Orlando are now legitimate contenders in the innovation economy, according to JLL, which tracks talent migration, office market dynamics, and corporate investment across 135 cities globally. 

Will “welcomer” cities stick?

Especially in the past few years, Gen Z has been flocking to more affordable cities just to get by during the cost-of-living crisis. Aside from places like Texas and Florida, many have made moves to the Midwest, where homes are about 30% cheaper than the coasts. 

A 2025 ConsumerAffairs analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) data found that seven of the 10 most accessible metros for young homeowners are in the Midwest. Unsurprisingly, California dominated the list of the least affordable metro areas for Gen Z.

A cost-of-living comparison by Apartments.com shows the cost of living in San Francisco is 80.6% higher than in Orlando, and housing prices are 226.2% higher. Compared with Nashville, San Francisco’s cost of living is 66.3% higher, and housing is nearly 150% more expensive. 

“The pull factors that drew people to affordability- and lifestyle-oriented cities [like Nashville and Orlando] are not likely to disappear, and people have built lives, bought homes, and put down roots in these markets,” McCready said.

Corporate migration also reinforces why younger people are moving. In 2024, Oracle announced plans to establish what it called its “world headquarters” in Nashville, committing $1.2 billion in capital investment over a decade and pledging to add 8,500 jobs to the area, with Tennessee state leaders offering a $65 million economic grant to help offset costs. (Although recent reports suggest Oracle is struggling a bit to attract workers to its office.)

Starbucks also recently announced it would debut a corporate hub in Nashville, which would reportedly be 250,000 square feet, or large enough for up to 2,000 employees, according to CoStar.

“With these growth plans, we see Nashville, Tennessee, as an ideal location to open an office and establish a more strategic presence in the Southeast region of the U.S.,” Starbucks COO Mike Grams said in a statement.

In Orlando, Travel + Leisure made the decision to relocate its global headquarters downtown—a move McCready called “a signal worth paying attention to.” Boston-based cybersecurity firm SimSpace also moved its headquarters to Orlando this year, and global banking software company Temenos, AMD, and Charles Schwab have all announced expansions in Orlando in the past couple of years. 

Despite all of these moves, it by no means suggests cities like San Francisco or New York are dead. It just means they’re competing more now with mid-size markets. 

“What we are seeing in established hubs like New York and the Bay Area is a recovery, but it’s highly selective,” McCready said. “Demand is concentrating in places and spaces with high degrees of accessibility, visibility, and access to amenities. And the supply in those markets is genuinely constraining: Only about 9% of office space in the Bay Area and major anchor cities was built after 2020.”

“So even companies that want to consolidate in San Francisco or New York are competing for a very thin slice of truly desirable space,” he continued.

The office market math

For companies weighing a relocation decision, the numbers in emerging innovation hubs like Orlando or Nashville tell a compelling story. Nashville ranked among the top five U.S. markets for absorption-to-delivery ratios in 2025, with 35% of new supply absorbed last year, alongside New York, Charlotte, Seattle, and Phoenix. Class A rents sit at $43.52 per square foot, which is meaningfully below large-city rates but in space McCready describes as “genuinely competitive.”

Orlando’s vacancy rate of 15.3% is well below the national average of 22.4%, and the market is seeing steady demand for high-quality, amenity-rich space. That stands in contrast to the Bay Area, where only about 9% of total office inventory was built after 2020, and where prime rents average $1,296 per square meter. Class A+ rents in a Welcomer city (like Orlando or Nashville) average $627 per square meter, roughly half that figure, according to JLL’s data.

“You are competing for very little space against very deep-pocketed incumbents” in San Francisco, McCready said. “Emerging hubs offer something increasingly rare: optionality. More modern inventory, more competitive rents, and—critically—talent pools that are growing, not just circulating.”

China says it supports law-abiding transnational deals after reports of Meta deal review




China says it supports law-abiding transnational deals after reports of Meta deal review

Why Google is offering a 100-year bond



Google’s parent company, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), is doing something rare: selling a 100-year bond to investors. Yahoo Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, who also hosts the video podcast Stocks in Translation, explains what the bond is and what investors need to know about it.

#youtube #google #bond #investing #bigtech

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Airbnb Hosts Could Make an Entire Year’s Income in One Month This Summer


The FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11th, bringing with it thousands of international soccer fans desperate for a place to stay and willing to pay thousands of dollars for the privilege. As a result, short-term rental hosts stand to make a fortune, tripling prices and selling out in seconds.

The dizzying prospect of earning $6,000 a night in some U.S. suburbs has even got regular homeowners looking to decamp to relatives while turning their primary residences over to the soccer-crazed hordes, while regular landlords are considering revamping their revenue models to capitalize on the cash flow shock wave.

World Cup 2026: A Unique Tournament

The 2026 tournament is the first time that games will be held in three countries—the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, with 16 host cities—75% of the games will be played in the U.S., with Mexico and Canada hosting 25% each, and an expanded 104-game format that extends the window of peak demand and potential cash flow for short-term rental hosts. 

According to the New York Times, the New York-New Jersey region is expecting more than 1 million visitors, and hotels in host cities have been quick to take advantage, inflating prices by 300%.

A Smash-and-Grab Cash Flow Oasis Amid an International Visitor Drought

For short-term rental hosts, the opportunity to seize on a soccer-fueled gold mine is welcome news at a time when overseas visits to the U.S. are markedly down in the wake of aggressive immigration tactics and conflict in the Middle East.

“Even a perfectly executed World Cup will not resolve the underlying structural challenges facing the hotel industry,” Vijay Dandapani, president of the Hotel Association of New York City, told the Times

International inbound travel to the U.S. fell by nearly 5% in January compared to the same time last year, marking the ninth straight month of decline, according to the U.S. Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO). A 22% year-over-year decline in Canadian visitors cost the U.S. economy $4.5 billion in 2025. In total, the U.S. was estimated to have lost $30 billion in tourism dollars.

Popular STR platforms such as Airbnb, Vrbo, and Booking.com realize that amid the booking downturn, the World Cup presents a short window of opportunity to make up for losses elsewhere in the year.

“It’s really this once-in-a-generational moment,” Nathan Rotman, Airbnb’s director of policy strategy for North America, told The Athletic. “It’s a real opportunity for cities to show themselves off, but also to test out whether they can accommodate fans.”

Property manager Bobby Roufaeal, who is managing over a dozen STRs in New Jersey, is tripling rates for his units and expects a single luxury property to generate about $240,000 during the tournament, encouraging hosts to see the potential for significant income. 

“They’re like, listen, I’ll figure it out. I’ll go stay with my relatives for the month or for a few weeks just to be able to capitalize on this revenue,” Roufaeal told Bloomberg, explaining how owners plan to vacate their personal residences to capitalize on the cash flow potential.

$4,000 Income Reality Check

International accounting firm Deloitte, commissioned by Airbnb, estimated that hosts in U.S. World Cup cities could bring in $4,000 on average during the tournament, which translates to $262 per night, even in pricier coastal cities. That number jumps up to $5,700 on average in New York, the highest of all host cities. Additionally, Airbnb has offered first-time hosts an incentive of $750 to use the platform and host their first guests by July 31, 2026.

“Demand for World Cup stays on Airbnb is surging, giving residents of host cities the opportunity to boost their incomes by sharing their homes and the communities they love,” Dave Stephenson, Airbnb’s chief business officer, said in a statement shared with Realtor.com. “There’s truly never been a better time to become a host on Airbnb.” 

Demand Spike and STR Regulation Waivers

AirDNA is tracking demand for short-term rentals in advance of the World Cup. As expected, the numbers will change by city and date as we get closer to the games.  

Municipalities have been forced to adjust their STR policies to ensure there are enough beds to accommodate the surge in visitors. In Kansas City, which will host six matches and where 650,000 visitors are expected to descend on a city with only 65,000 hotel rooms, the demand has had far-reaching repercussions. 

“They [the city] had reached out to the Kansas City Alliance and said, ‘Hey, we are about 500 listings short of what we need. Will you help us bring new hosts to the area?” Tyann Marcink Hammond, president of the Missouri Vacation Home Alliance, said during an episode of the Alex and Annie Vacation Rental Podcast, as cited by Rent Responsibly.

The scope of influence for hosts extends well beyond the Kansas City limits, where short-term rental rules differ markedly, with rental caps and bans on non-hosted rentals. These have temporarily been waived to accommodate the influx. “They understand the economic benefits, and they want that in their community,” Hammond said.

In June 2025, Jackson County legislators proposed an emergency pause on the reclassification of short-term rentals from residential to commercial properties. However, the reclassification tripled the tax exposure for some STR owners, angering many of them.

“This is outrageous, and I absolutely will shut down prior to the World Cup,” Laura Williams, vice president of the Kansas City Short Term Rental Alliance, told KSHB 41.

For small landlords who might not have a regulatory attorney at hand, understanding the quagmire of changing rules could result in fines and forced cancellations during a potential windfall event. Ironically, New York, led by soccer-crazed mayor Zohran Mamdani, has some of the strictest STR rules in the country, banning stays under 30 days, which it has refused to relinquish. This move means STR business goes to New Jersey and elsewhere.

Final Thoughts: The World Cup and Beyond—Where STR Landlords Can Profit the Most

The World Cup has presented an interesting debate: How much revenue can STR hosts in major cities hosting major events make, and is it enough to offset the high cost of doing business (taxes, insurance, expensive properties, and interior furnishings) in those cities? 

For many landlords, the lure of a high volume of revenue over a short period, as opposed to ongoing monthly rental income and the hassle of chasing up rents and dealing with evictions, might be enough to cause them to switch strategies and chase fast cash. 

For cities with stringent STR rental rules, such as New York, lobbying efforts by STR companies and strategic affiliation with event organizers, such as Airbnb’s pact with FIFA, may make them rue the tourism revenue they are turning away. On the flip side, the average income of $4,000 a month, as predicted by Deloitte, means that unless major events are ongoing near your rental property, switching to short-term hosting over long-term renting may be more hype than dollars.

Earn 95x Amex Membership Rewards with Rakuten


LifeLock Offer: Earn 95x Amex Membership Rewards with Rakuten

🔃 Update (Apr 01, 2026) – This offer is available again through the Rakuten site and app. You can earn 95X Amex/Bilt points. New Rakuten members can also get a $50 signup bonus. 


The popular LifeLock offer from Rakuten is back. You can now earn 95x American Express Membership Rewards points or 95% cash back through the Rakuten app only. This is an easy way to add a big stash of points to your account, and it is a good deal depending on your valuation of these points. The cheapest LifeLock subscription costs $296.90.

To get in on this deal, you need to be a Rakuten member. If you don’t have an account you can sign up now. Get the app, and search for LifeLock and follow the easy prompts to sign up. Just make sure you see the 95x rate before proceeding.

The LifeLock’s “Ultimate Plus Plan” costs $296.90. That means that you would get $282.05 in cashback or 28,205 Membership Rewards points. There are more expensive plans as well, such as the “Ultimate Plus Plan for Family with Kids” that costs $491.88. That would earn you 46,728 Membership Rewards points.

If you run the numbers, this deal means that you’re purchasing points at 1.05 cents each. If you can cash out with Schwab for example, then you’re making a small profit. But American Express Membership Rewards points can be even more valuable when used through travel partners. And on top of that, you would be earning rewards with your credit card. That brings the cost closer a penny.

The terms of the Rakuten cashback state that you need to maintain the membership for at least 60 days. If you cancel after that, I don’t know if you receive a pro-rated refund. If you do, the deal becomes significantly more profitable.