Home Blog

The US Iran Conflict Will Make (Smart) Investors Rich



Join ROIC Academy here:

——————————————
Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the author’s opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.
—————————————————————————————————————-
The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.

source

Kevin Warsh’s opening statement: Inflation is a choice, independence essential



In a matter of hours, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee in his first real test as a would-be central bank chairman.

Warsh, with the backing of President Trump, seeks to return to the U.S. Federal Reserve where he formerly served as a governor—something like a chief of staff—to Ben Bernanke between 2006 and 2011.

In his opening statement to the committee today, Warsh will lay out his commitment to the Federal Reserve: Independence is essential, as is reform of the Fed. Inflation is also a choice, he will say, a choice which the Federal Reserve must be accountable for. (The full text of his statement is below.)

Warsh could hardly stand before the committee without addressing the obvious concerns of the day: Whether he will prove to be, as critics fear, a puppet for the White House in the federally mandated independent central bank.

The New Yorker may ruffle feathers in his early remarks by thanking the president for his support (though one could argue not to do so would be a snub, and further contention the Fed could well do without). However, Warsh goes on to outline his commitment to independent monetary policy, saying it is “essential” in order for the central bank to work in the best interests of the nation as a whole.

Interestingly, Warsh also frames pressure from policymakers as a test of independence rather than a threat. Thus far, critics of the Oval Office have (with some justification) argued that President Trump’s campaign of pressure on current Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell goes beyond the bounds of expected requests for a lower base rate.

Markets have reacted negatively to Trump’s threats to fire Powell, seeing it as a direct attack on the critical independence of the Fed, and have watched warily as Trump has launched campaigns against governors such as Lisa Cook, and a criminal investigation into Powell over testimony related to renovations of the central bank buildings.

Warsh may soon be positioned in this very building in D.C., trading the Central Park views from the lofty office he occupied beside legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller for 15 years in favor of the widespread renovations on Capitol Hill at present.

While Warsh will steer well clear of the current court debate, he will make his stance clear that if policymakers wished to share opinions on monetary policy, they should: “I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials state their views on interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners, humble enough to be open-minded to new ideas and new economic developments, wise enough to translate imperfect data into meaningful insight, and dedicated enough to make judgments faithfully and wisely,” Warsh will say.

The Stanford graduate, who has been a critical friend to both the current central bank leadership and those before it, is also making a rod for his own back: “Inflation is a choice,” Warsh will state, “and the Fed must take responsibility for it.”

With affordability a buzzword in the U.S. at the moment, Warsh’s stance is bold in asserting that price rises are a decision or a compromise made by the Fed. Any criticism of prices being too high or above target (at present, inflation stands at 3.3%, comfortably ahead of the 2% target) is to be endured, Warsh will say: “Congress tasked the Fed with the mission to ensure price stability, without excuse or equivocation, argument or anguish.”

Warsh’s statement is also a keyhole into how his friends and mentors have helped shape his career. Warsh, 56, credits teachers and his fellow students in America’s public school system for “good influences in learning and in character.”

He also references his “mentor and friend” George Shultz, the former Secretary of State and Treasury, whom he met at Stanford, and Stan Druckenmiller, the legendary investor worth some $12.5 billion according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index.

“Like Secretary Shultz, Stan never once sat me down to give a lecture. Instead, he offered me something better: a seat at the table by his side,” Warsh will say.

Honorable mentions also go to Warsh’s current boss at the Hoover Institution, his “close friend,” former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Also mentioned by Warsh is his wife, Jane Lauder, granddaughter of cosmetics entrepreneur Estée Lauder. The investor, and former executive vice president of her family’s business, is one of Fortune’s Most Powerful Women.

Warsh’s opening statement in full:

Good morning, Mr. Chairman, and thank you. It’s an honor to be with you, Ranking Member Warren, and the entire committee. I appreciate your time and consideration today, and your many courtesies, before and since my nomination.

I am deeply grateful to President Trump for asking me to take on this public trust. He believes that US economic growth and real take-home pay will accelerate. I share the President’s confidence in our country and its people. America’s economic growth potential is rising.

With me today are a few of my dearest and oldest friends. I’m especially happy that my wife, Jane, is here as well. And at important moments in life, I think of my late Mom and Dad. I’m proud of them and I hope they would be proud of me today.

We start today on a note of broad agreement: this is a time of great consequence for the nation’s economy, perhaps the most significant hinge point in a couple of generations. If policymakers across our government meet this signal moment with wisdom and clarity, then the American economy will thrive.

As a former Fed governor—and friend or colleague of the last five Fed chiefs—I am particularly alert to the challenges and opportunities confronting the institution I cherish, the Federal Reserve.

To the President, Congress, and the nation, I owe my best judgment and most faithful efforts in serving the mission Congress assigned to the Fed, including price stability and full employment. The American people are counting on the Fed to deliver on its commitments.

Members of the committee might be familiar with my formal education and work history. The real high points, however, are more personal. They include the individuals with whom I worked and from whom I learned.

I graduated from high school in upstate New York. I had some exceptional teachers there, and many brilliant classmates I remember well. We’re lucky in life if we start out with good influences in learning and in character. A public-school education gave me those, and I’m grateful.

I made my way to Stanford University, and as a student and researcher found myself in the company of some highly accomplished economists and policymakers. Many of my teachers served in and around government during the prior hinge point in American history, the malaise of the 1970s and the comeback years of the 1980s and 1990s. George Shultz, the former secretary of state and treasury, was among the great patriots at the Hoover Institution who I came to know as mentor and friend.

I could not have imagined a better formative experience: a chance to observe disciplined thinking . . . to learn rigorous statistical and economic methods . . . to appreciate geopolitical and economic history . . . to exercise independence of mind . . . to resist fads and groupthink . . . to witness humility among the most expert . . . and, perhaps most important, to be around people completely devoted to the ideas and ideals of our country.

Silicon Valley in the early 1990s was a fitting backdrop to all of this. The United States was entering a new era of technological leadership, and a new cadre of business builders was emerging. Many of them were classmates, and they would become life-long friends.

I don’t know whether to chalk any of it up to serendipity. Whatever the source, I was in the right place at the right time. Those early influences set a standard I have always tried to meet, in public service and private enterprise.

That goes for colleagues and mentors later in life, too. In the last 15 years, I’ve gained deep, hands-on experience in macroeconomics and financial markets, most notably working with Stan Druckenmiller, one of the most successful investors of our time.

Stan never held a position in government but is no less a patriot. He never got a Ph.D., but I know of no better, nor a more open-minded economic thinker. He has never flaunted his philanthropy but has helped many thousands of young Americans to get a first-rate education and a real chance to rise.

Like Secretary Shultz, Stan never once sat me down to give a lecture. Instead, he offered me something better: a seat at the table by his side.

Without their guidance—and that of a few other great mentors including my current boss and close friend at the Hoover Institution, former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice—I doubt I would be sitting before you today as the President’s Fed chairman-nominee. But I am certain of one thing: I would not be as prepared for the urgent, mission-critical task at hand.

In between these book-end experiences, I served for more than a decade in government, first on the White House economic staff, and then as a member of the Fed’s board of governors. In fact, it was twenty years ago, almost to the day, when I sat before this committee as a Fed governor-nominee.

Little did any of us—myself included—know that it would be a time like no other. During the great financial crisis—when shocks hit our economy, unemployment spiked, our economic system faced collapse, and America’s standing in the world was scrutinized—our central bank played an indispensable role. My colleagues and I leveraged the tools and powers that the Fed, and only the Fed, had to deploy. We benefitted enormously from the credibility that our predecessors had built up and passed down to us.

In unusual and exigent circumstances, I saw the Fed and its people at their best. I served with scores of first-rate, dedicated professionals in Washington and at the reserve banks who rallied around a common mission and a wise and resolute Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke. We worked closely with the Treasury Department, the Administration, and Congress to mitigate the risks of systemic failure–no sure thing at the time.

In the period after the crisis, I also witnessed an institution that was tempted to play a larger role in the economy and society . . . to extend its reach and stretch its hard-earned credibility, often with the best intentions, to the very edge of, if not beyond, the Fed’s statutory responsibilities.

The question of a central bank’s role and responsibility in our republic dates to America’s founding. There is an equally long history of fierce debates about the central bank’s independence.

So let me be clear: monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest . . . their decisions the product of analytic rigor, meaningful deliberation, and unclouded decision-making.

I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners . . . humble enough to be open-minded to new ideas and new economic developments . . . wise enough to translate imperfect data into meaningful insight . . . and dedicated enough to make judgments faithfully and wisely.

Simply stated, Fed independence is largely up to the Fed. That has three important implications worth highlighting.

First, Congress tasked the Fed with the mission to ensure price stability, without excuse or equivocation, argument or anguish. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed must take responsibility for it.

Low inflation is the Fed’s plot armor, its vital protection again slings and arrows. So, when inflation surges—as it has done in recent years—grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off. They lose purchasing power. Their standard of living falls.4

They may also lose faith in our system of economic governance, raising doubts whether monetary policy independence is all it’s cracked up to be.

Second, Fed independence is at its peak in the operational conduct of monetary policy. That degree of independence does not extend to the full range of its congressionally mandated functions. Fed officials are not entitled to the same special deference in their stewardship of public monies . . . or in bank regulatory and supervisory policy . . . or in areas affecting international finance, among other matters.

And third, the Fed must stay in its lane. Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it strays into fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise. The Fed should not act as some general-purpose agency of the US government or as an appellate court for matters that are rightly debated and decided elsewhere.

No doubt there are times when a Fed chief might wish that he or she had the last word, but our republic doesn’t work that way. I favor a clearer, cleaner match between the Fed’s powers and responsibilities.

During my prior tour of duty at the Fed, I said: “Central bankers must demonstrate that we are worthy of this moment and will be steadfast protectors of our institutions’ credibility. That means respecting our important but circumscribed role in the conduct of policy and performing our mission with competence and consistency.”

That’s still true today.

In sum, I believe that monetary policy independence is earned—and better policy decisions crafted—by steering clear of distractions. I am committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent. I am equally committed to working with the

Administration and Congress on non-monetary matters that are part of the Fed’s remit. And I commit to accountability in all the Fed’s functions.

In my student days, Milton Friedman had a phrase that’s always stayed with me: “the tyranny of the status quo.” Anyone who has worked at large, complex institutions know what that means—the pull of inertia . . . the tacit acceptance of old ways of working . . . the unwillingness to revisit long-held assumptions . . . the use of old models that are no longer fit for purpose . . . the tendency to kick the can down the road.

Status quo practices and policies are especially harmful when the world is changing fast. If confirmed as chairman, I will seek to bring the experience of a one-time insider and the questioning spirit of an outsider. I will keep the Fed mindful of its limits, focused on its mission, and delivering on its mandate. I will be faithful to the Constitution, to the Federal Reserve Act, and to the best of the Fed’s traditions.

I know the terrain, and I would be proud to serve again on the Board of Governors. In a time that will rank among the most consequential in our nation’s history, I believe a reform-oriented Federal Reserve can make a real difference to the American people. The stakes could scarcely be higher.

In and out of government, I’ve always tried to look for common objectives, and to pursue them cordially and cooperatively with my colleagues. If confirmed, I will seek to create an environment in which the best people can do their life’s best work.

Candor and goodwill can go a long way in pursuing objectives that we all share, and I suspect this hearing will put us to the test. It’s a real privilege to be here before this committee. My thanks to each of you, and I welcome your questions.

Rethinking Variable Importance in Machine Learning


We study which firm characteristics drive the economic value of machine learning portfolios. Three results stand out. First, in-sample variable importance overfits and provides little reliable guidance, highlighting the need for out-of-sample evaluation using economic criteria. Second, conventional models are dominated by microcaps, which inflate returns and concentrate gains in costly-to-trade stocks; excluding microcaps is essential for meaningful inference. Third, some predictors carry negative importance and consistently degrade performance; removing them improves risk-adjusted returns and clarifies which characteristics matter. These findings show that only with economic restrictions can machine learning deliver robust asset pricing insights.

Inflation Is Draining Older Workers’ Savings — and Upending Retirement Plans


StockLite / Shutterstock.com

Retirement is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve as economic pressures reshape expectations for later life. The Retirement Reality Check Report from LiveCareer, based on a survey of 878 U.S. workers aged 50 and older, highlights how rising costs and financial volatility are altering how people prepare for life after full-time work and address the complexities of retirement planning over…

Ondo Finance, Clearstream, 360X Form Alliance To Merge TradFi With Blockchain Based Tokenization


Ondo Finance, Clearstream, and 360X have launched a comprehensive partnership. The initiative aims to embed tokenized securities fully into regulated financial systems by leveraging public, permissionless blockchains. By covering every aspect of the asset lifecycle—from execution and storage to final settlement and collateral use—the collaboration creates a unified, institution-ready framework that maintains full compliance while harnessing blockchain efficiencies.

The first phase is already operational: Ondo’s tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds are now actively traded on 360X, the ESMA-regulated digital-asset venue backed by Deutsche Börse Group. European broker-dealers and institutional investors can access these products in a marketplace that meets the EU’s strictest standards.

The tokens, issued on Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain, deliver genuine on-chain exposure to well-known U.S. equities and indices without requiring investors to leave familiar regulated channels.

The next stage will integrate Ondo’s assets directly into Clearstream’s post-trade infrastructure.

Custody, settlement, and collateral-management services will become available, allowing institutions to treat tokenized securities much like traditional holdings while enjoying faster processing and greater transparency.

Ondo also intends to tokenize selected EU-listed instruments on its Global Markets platform, with Clearstream acting as custodian for the underlying securities.

In return, Clearstream will tokenize certain assets from its own vaults and route them through Ondo’s global client network outside the United States, expanding distribution reach.

The initial 360X listing features ten prominent tokenized securities—including AAPLon, AMZNon, CRCLon, GOOGLon, METAon, MSFTon, NVDAon, TSLAon, SPYon, and QQQon—marking the largest single batch of tokenized equities and ETFs ever introduced on the platform.

This rollout follows Ondo Global Markets’ recent regulatory approval to serve investors across 30 EU and EEA countries, potentially opening regulated on-chain access to more than 500 million people.

Matthieu de Vergnes, Managing Director and Global Head of Institutional at Ondo Finance, described the partnership as a turning point that places tokenized assets within the core infrastructure European institutions already trust.

Carlo Kölzer, CEO of 360X and Global Head of FX & Digital Assets at Deutsche Börse Group, noted that the listing significantly broadens the range of compliant digital instruments available to clients.

Jens Hachmeister, Head of Issuer Services & New Digital Markets at Clearstream, highlighted how the alliance is building a more efficient, future-ready market by seamlessly connecting traditional and digital worlds.

Headquartered in Frankfurt, 360X operates across OTC, MTF, and DLT-MTF segments and is jointly supported by Deutsche Börse Group and Commerzbank.

Clearstream, a key post-trade provider within Deutsche Börse Group, manages more than €20 trillion in assets and runs central securities depositories in Germany, Luxembourg, and the international Eurobond market.

Ondo Finance specializes in tokenizing real-world assets to improve accessibility, transparency, and efficiency in capital markets.

Together, the organizations are laying the groundwork for broader global adoption of tokenized securities, enabling institutions to access enhanced liquidity, reduced friction, and a frictionless transition into the on-chain economy.



Up 30% in 1 Month, Is Zcash a Better Buy Than Bitcoin?


Up more than 30% during the past 30 days alone, Zcash (ZEC +2.59%) has a few things in its favor right now, including a trend toward privacy projects in the crypto sector and a developer team reshuffle that has sharpened its direction. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC +1.63%) hasn’t exactly done much of anything during the same stretch.

Is Zcash the smarter buy right now, or is it just a smaller coin being volatile while the heavyweight catches its breath?

Image source: Getty Images.

Zcash’s recent run might be picking up again

Zcash and Bitcoin share similar DNA because they have a supply policy that defines a hard cap of 21 million coins, proof-of-work (PoW) mining, and scheduled halvings which make the mining reward smaller. That scarcity design is precisely why the privacy coin’s bulls argue that Zcash could follow a Bitcoin-like trajectory over time, as being a scarce store of value is central to what gives a cryptocurrency long-term value.

What sets Zcash apart is its implementation of zero-knowledge (zk) proof technology, which is the basis for its privacy capabilities. Its shielded (private) pool uses zk-SNARKs, a cryptographic method that lets a user prove something is true without revealing any underlying data, such that the network’s transactions can settle without broadcasting the sender, receiver, or amount. Understanding the details of how this technology works is less important than recognizing that financial privacy is something that Zcash offers and which nearly all other cryptocurrencies do not. Bitcoin, for example, posts all of its transactions to a public ledger where anyone can snoop on anyone else’s business.

Zcash Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(2.59%) $8.02

Current Price

$318.22

Zcash’s developer team also just went through a major realignment which will likely be for the better in the long term. In January, the entire team exited from their previous organization, the Electric Coin Company (ECC), to form the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), rebranding the network’s flagship wallet and promising a for-profit structure instead of a nonprofit one like before. Still, launching a sleeker wallet app and consolidating the developer team under a new banner doesn’t really justify a 30% gain in one month, and it doesn’t necessarily imply that any new long-term tailwinds are in play.

The regulatory ceiling will be problematic

Now, let’s turn to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is vastly larger than Zcash by market cap and enjoys widespread institutional adoption that Zcash cannot currently access. Spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), corporate treasury buyers, and mainstream brokerages all funnel capital into Bitcoin directly and without fanfare.

Bitcoin Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(1.63%) $1223.52

Current Price

$76260.00

The parallel infrastructure on the Zcash side simply does not yet exist even in a rudimentary form. If anything, it hasn’t even started to dig itself out from regulators around the world banning it or heavily restricting its listing on crypto exchanges, which took years for Bitcoin to accomplish. In fact, Zcash is probably not yet at its nadir as far as its struggles with regulators go, which implies that it faces a very long road to any real adoption by institutional capital, assuming that ever happens.

At least 10 countries now restrict privacy coin access on their licensed exchanges, and the E.U.’s new Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) explicitly bans anonymity-enhancing coins like Zcash (as well as its direct competitors) being offered by regulated venues starting in July 2027. Major crypto exchanges, including Binance, Kraken, OKX, and others have delisted privacy coins under regulatory pressure since 2024, though some have ultimately relisted them without serious incident.

Zcash’s design allows for its privacy features to be optional from the get-go, and it also allows for limited disclosure of private transactions to third parties, both of which might appease some regulators. But right now, the trend is against the coin traversing the same institutional adoption path that Bitcoin is now far along.

Thus, whether Zcash fits in a well-balanced crypto portfolio depends on your tolerance for regulatory risk, as well as your view on the long-term merits of the privacy thesis. For most long-term holders, Bitcoin is the better purchase because it’s much less risky.

In my view, financial privacy is something that people are always going to want, which is why I buy Zcash. But even so, for every $1 I invest in it, you can bet that I’ve invested $5 into Bitcoin first.

Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Rising with the Middle East Conflict Seemingly Worsening?


You might be wondering why mortgage rates remain fairly low despite tensions in the Middle East remaining quite high.

While there was a glimmer of hope a few days ago when Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire and an Iranian official declared the Strait of Hormuz open, it appeared to be short-lived.

It turned out the Strait wasn’t open and then U.S. forces fired upon an Iranian vessel and took custody of it.

Meanwhile, a second round of negotiations involving Vice President J.D. Vance are apparently not being attended by the Iranians.

And Trump is back to making big threats again on social media. So you wonder why bond yields and mortgage rates aren’t rising once more.

Mortgage Rates Are Holding Up Remarkably Well Despite Near-$100 Oil

Historically, oil prices and mortgage rates are positively correlated, in that if one goes up, so does the other.

In short, when energy costs rise, inflation expectations rise and bond traders (and MBS investors) demand a higher yield aka interest rate.

Yes, mortgage rates are up since oil went up in price, but not by a whole lot.

And over the past three weeks and change, 10-year bond yields have drifted lower, falling from around 4.50% to 4.25% today.

They had been just below 4% before the war in Iran broke out, but are now well off their recent highs.

The rationale is that the war is baked into bond yields now, and that tensions have eased from their absolute heights.

But when you see all the flip-flopping, you start to wonder if yields are high enough to compensate.

While there was some promise of a peace deal last week, we are back to things being very tenuous again.

Trump took to his Truth Social account yesterday, saying if Iran doesn’t make a deal, “the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”

It’s more of the same threats made before the peace talks and feels like we are ratcheting back up to the tensest levels.

At the same time, Iran has said it’s not even going to attend the next round of talks in Islamabad.

And the existing ceasefire between the two countries ends on Wednesday night…

None of this exactly exudes confidence that the worst is behind us, or that a deal is imminent.

Instead, it sounds like things could get worse before they get better.

But it appears mortgage rates are staying lower based on optimism and hope. That things will get better and a deal will be reached. It sure doesn’t sound promising though.

Labor Market Matters More Than War-Related Inflation

If it’s not that, then it’s because labor is worse than we think, and jobs and unemployment are going to continue to deteriorate.

The Fed seems to be more concerned about the labor market and the lack of job creation, and that can trump any uptick in inflation related to oil prices.

Back in mid-March, Fed chair Jerome Powell said, “Effectively, there’s zero net job creation in the private sector.”

Obviously that’s a problem, and when you throw in the threat of AI taking existing jobs on top of that, it’s very bleak.

That could lead to more accommodative action from the Fed like rate cuts and keep bond yields down in the process.

And perhaps that, coupled with historical precedent that geopolitical issues don’t drag out as long as expected, may explain why mortgage rates aren’t even higher today.

At last glance, they’re only about .25% to .375% above the pre-war levels, which is remarkably decent given oil prices remain near $100 a barrel.

You can see how much that affects your payment and total interest via my mortgage rate calculator.

My quick take is be grateful and don’t be at all surprised if they rise again in the months of May and June.

Read on: Mortgage rates are lowest in the month of February historically.

Colin Robertson
Latest posts by Colin Robertson (see all)

Foresight Solar sees limited NAV impact from UK carbon tax removal




Foresight Solar sees limited NAV impact from UK carbon tax removal

The Biggest Financial Traps Men Fall Into Between 35 and 45 (Nobody Warns You)



If you’re between 35 and 45, earning more than ever but still feeling financially stuck, this video is for you. We break down the hidden money traps that look like success—bigger homes, nicer cars, more responsibility—and explain why they quietly destroy flexibility and peace of mind. Learn how to lower your financial break-even point, reclaim options, and build real stability without sacrificing your family or your lifestyle.

Disclaimer: The purpose is to inform viewers about finance in a responsible, educational way, not to provide financial advice. This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. Please consult with a professional before making major financial decisions.

#savemoney #personalfinance #investing

source

7 Passive Investments Paying 8%+ Every Year


Passive income is the engine of financial independence, whether you’re 30 or 65. With enough passive income from investments, working becomes optional.

But some investments outshine others in paying high yields. And the higher the yield, the less money you need to invest to generate the same income.

I’ve personally invested in every one of the investments outlined below, with small amounts through my co-investing club. The numbers aren’t hypothetical—I’m earning them right now as I write this.

1. Private Notes

A few years ago, I invested with a house flipper who does 60-90 flips a year. I signed a private note with him at 10% interest, and he’s paid me on time every month since.

Last year in my co-investing club, we lent money to a land flipper at 15% interest. If that sounds risky, consider that he put up his home as collateral—with a first-position lien at 65% LTV.

I’ve also lent at 16% to a rental investor who sells to his renters on installment contracts. All continue paying like clockwork.

2. Real Estate Funds

Another land flipping company that my co-investing club has invested with offers a fund that pays a 10% distribution each quarter, plus another 6% if they hit their profit target.

Since the fund launched five years ago or so, it’s hit its profit target every single quarter. So every quarter, a 16% annualized distribution gets deposited in my bank account.

3. Private Partnerships (JV)

The co-investing club I invest with also loves to negotiate custom partnerships with active investors. They do the work, we put up the bulk of the money, and we get our share of the profits.

Even an example that didn’t work out as planned still underscored how great the model is. We partnered with a house flipper and funded a series of flips and negotiated a minimal annualized return of 8%. One of the flips flopped, and it dragged down the average annualized return below 8%. But when the partnership closed out after the prescribed timeline, the operator made up the difference and paid our agreed-upon 8% floor return.

We actually just finished investing money with a builder who specializes in barndominium homes in Central Tennessee. We’re partnering on four builds, each of which will likely take around nine months from start to finish. Assuming these produce similar returns to the last dozen barndos he’s built, we should earn a 16%-20% return for each one.

4. Industrial Syndications

Last year, we invested in an industrial seller-leaseback deal with a single triple-net lease tenant. In the first few months, it paid a distribution yield of 7.5%, and a year later, it’s paying 9.5%.

In fact, the club just finished vetting and investing in a similar deal, projected to pay out virtually identical distributions.

It’s not the first time we’ve invested with that operator, either. This is the third deal we’ve invested in with them, and a previous industrial deal just closed out a few months ago after a two-and-a-half-year hold. It paid out annualized returns of 27.6%.

Some industrial syndications also make recession-resilient investments. That first one I mentioned had a backlog of orders over three years long when we invested, and their clients are largely name-brand companies and the U.S. Navy. They’re not going anywhere.

5. Multifamily Syndications

Not every multifamily syndication pays distributions at all, and some pay low yields in the 2%-4% range. Others pay mid-range yields in the 4%-7% range, and still others pay high yields in the 7%-10%+ range.

We’ve invested three times now with an operator who specializes in workforce housing in Ohio. They’ve paid the projected 8% distribution on time every quarter for each one.

Another operator we invested with last year also specializes in Midwestern multifamily properties. They bought a huge portfolio of relatively small multifamily properties, scattered across several states, which has already yielded enormous cash flow. It currently pays over a 9% distribution yield. 

6. Mobile Home Parks

You can also invest passively in other types of syndications, such as mobile home parks.

Our co-investing club invested in a Nebraska park a few years ago that pays a 10% distribution each quarter. Beyond being a cash cow, it’s also quite recession-resilient, as they’ve systematically unloaded the park-owned homes to tenants. Residents with tenant-owned homes almost never default on their lot rents, because it costs many thousands more to move a mobile home than to pay the few hundred dollars in lot rent.

If you don’t like the structure of a syndication, you could negotiate a joint venture partnership with a mobile home park investor and simply come in as a silent partner.

7. Hotel Syndications

We also invested in a boutique hotel operator with a small cabin resort in Southern California. They pay distributions currently at 11%, after starting distributions early and refinancing to return some of our capital earlier than expected.

How the Freedom Math Changes with 8%-16% Yields

If you follow the 4% Rule and want $40,000 in investment income, you need to invest $1 million. Even with an enormous savings rate as I had, it takes at least six to 10 years to become a millionaire if you earn a middle-class income.

With investments paying an 8% yield, it takes $500,000 to generate $40,000 in income. At 10%, it takes $400,000 invested. At 12%, it takes $333,333. And at 14%, it takes $285,714.

And at a 16% yield, it takes $250,000.

Yes, I get it: No one’s putting their entire portfolio in assets paying a 16% yield. These high-yield investments make up just one portion of your portfolio, alongside low-yield investments like index funds mirroring the S&P 500.

The point remains, however: Passive real estate investments paying 8%-16% yields can help you escape your day job sooner. They can prop up your income, letting you quit and pursue your ideal work instead of grinding away at a high-octane job.

Imagine putting even $100,000 in a passive real estate investment paying 16%. That’s an extra $16,000 a year in income.

I don’t know about you, but that’s no trivial raise. This is precisely why I keep investing month in and month out in new passive investments, many of which pay high yields like the examples above.