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Guru’s Wrap-up
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Iran threatened to target recreational and tourist sites worldwide and insisted it was still building missiles. Friday’s show of defiance came nearly three weeks into U.S.-Israeli strikes that have killed a slew of Tehran’s top leaders and hammered its weapons and energy industries.
Iran fired on Israel and energy sites in neighboring Gulf Arab states as many in the region marked one of the holiest days on the Muslim calendar. Iranians were also celebrating the Persian New Year, known as Nowruz, a normally festive holiday that is more subdued this year.
With little information coming out of Iran, it was not clear how much damage its arms, nuclear or energy facilities have sustained since the war began Feb. 28 or even who was truly in charge of the country. But Iran has showed it is still capable of attacks that are choking off oil supplies and denting the global economy, raising food and fuel prices far beyond the Middle East.
The U.S. and Israel have offered shifting rationales for the war, from hoping to foment an uprising that topples Iran’s leadership to eliminating its nuclear and missile programs. There have been no public signs of any such uprising and no end in sight to the war.
Iran threatens worldwide tourist sites
Iran’s top military spokesman warned Friday that “parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations” worldwide won’t be safe for Tehran’s enemies.
The threat from Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi renewed concerns that Iran may revert to using militant attacks beyond the Middle East as a pressure tactic.
U.S. and Israeli leaders have said that weeks of strikes have decimated Iran’s military. Airstrikes have also killed its supreme leader, the head of its Supreme National Security Council and a raft of other top-ranking military and political leaders.
The Israeli military said Friday that Esmail Ahmadi, head of intelligence for the Basij, and internal security force, had been killed by a strike earlier in the week that hit other Basij leaders.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran’s navy was sunk and its air force in tatters, while adding that its ability to produce ballistic missiles had been taken out. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard disputed the missile claim on Friday.
“We are producing missiles even during war conditions, which is amazing, and there is no particular problem in stockpiling,” spokesman Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini was quoted as saying in Iran’s state-run IRAN newspaper.
A short time after the statement was released, Iranian state television said Naeini was killed in an airstrike.
The country’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also released a rare statement, saying Iran’s enemies need to have their “security” taken away.
Khamenei hasn’t been seen since he succeeded his father, the 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war.
A Kuwait refinery comes under attack and explosions shake Dubai
Iran has stepped up its attacks on energy sites in Gulf Arab states after Israel bombed Iran’s massive South Pars offshore natural gas field earlier in the week.
Two waves of Iranian drones attacked a Kuwaiti oil refinery early Friday, sparking a fire. The Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, which can process some 730,000 barrels of oil per day, is one of the largest in the Middle East. It was damaged Thursday in another Iranian attack.
Bahrain said a fire broke out after shrapnel from an intercepted projectile landed on a warehouse, and Saudi Arabia reported shooting down multiple drones targeting its oil-rich Eastern Province.
Heavy explosions shook Dubai as air defenses intercepted incoming fire over the city, where many were observing Eid al-Fitr, the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.
In Iran, meanwhile, many were marking Nowruz even as Israel said it had launched new strikes, and explosions were heard over Tehran. The Persian New Year, which coincides with the spring equinox, is a tradition observed across southwestern Asia that dates back thousands of years.
Loud explosions could also be heard in Jerusalem after the Israeli army warned of incoming Iranian missiles. First responders said they treated two people around 70 years old who were lightly wounded.
In addition to steadily striking Iran, Israel has regularly hit Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants who have been firing rockets and drones into Israel.
On Friday, Israel broadened its attacks to Syria, saying it hit infrastructure there in response to what it described as attacks on the Druze minority. Syria’s state-run SANA news agency did not immediately acknowledge the attack.
More than 1,300 people have been killed in Iran during the war. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have displaced more than 1 million people, according to the Lebanese government, which says more than 1,000 people have been killed. Israel says it has killed more than 500 Hezbollah militants.
In Israel, 15 people have been killed by Iranian missile fire. Four people were also killed in the occupied West Bank by an Iranian missile strike.
At least 13 U.S. military members have been killed.
The war is raising risks to the world economy
Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf combined with its stranglehold on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and other critical goods are transported, has raised concerns of a global energy crisis.
U.S. President Donald Trump lobbed fresh insults at NATO allies who have spurned his call for help protecting the strait. U.S. allies have refused to join the war, saying they weren’t consulted before the U.S. and Israel launched it. Trump called NATO members “COWARDS” in a social media post, saying: “NATO IS A PAPER TIGER.”
Brent crude oil, the international standard, has soared during the fighting and was around $108 per barrel Friday, up from roughly $70 per barrel before the war began.
Surging fuel prices come at a moment when many world leaders were already struggling to bring down high prices of food and many consumer goods. Asia is getting hit hard as most of the oil and gas exiting the Strait of Hormuz is transported there.
But the price shocks are reverberating throughout the world economy. Key raw materials — like helium used in making computer chips, and sulfur, a raw material in fertilizer — have been obstructed and could be in short supply soon, raising the prices of goods all the way down the supply chain.
___
Mednick reported from Jerusalem and Rising from Bangkok. AP journalists Michelle Price in Washington and Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, contributed.
The global music industry just crossed a symbolic threshold.
Worldwide recorded music revenues reached USD $31.7 billion in 2025, surpassing $30 billion for the first time and marking the industry’s eleventh consecutive year of growth.
That figure, revealed within the IFPI‘s Global Music Report 2026, is more than double the industry’s nadir of $13.1 billion in 2014.
The new GMR report (which you can access through here) showed that global growth accelerated, too: the global industry expanded by 6.4% YoY in 2025, up from the 4.7% rate posted in 2024, adding USD $1.9 billion in a single year.
Speaking to MBW directly after the report’s launch on Wednesday (March 18), IFPI CEO Victoria Oakley is in a buoyant mood.
“Growth in our industry is obviously good for us, but good for artists, good for fans, good for consumers,” she says. “It was really nice to be able to announce good news.”
That good news included recorded music growth in every region, with four posting double-digit gains.
Paid subscription streaming saw revenues climb8.8% YoY, accounting for more than half of global revenues for the first time, while the number of users of paid subscription accounts worldwide rose to 837 million – inching ever closer to 1 billion.
The report’s geographic picture was equally striking. China, a market that has proven music fans are willing to pay for higher-priced premium subscription tiers (see Tencent Music’s 20m ‘Super VIP’ subs), leapfrogged Germany to become the world’s fourth-largest recorded music market, growing 20.1% YoY.
“More consumers are choosing to come to music [in China],” says Oakley, “and more of those consumers are paying more in multiple different ways.”
Latin America was the fastest-growing region overall at 17.1% YoY — its 16th consecutive year of growth — with Brazil climbing to No.8 and Mexico was the No.10 largest global market after overtaking Italy and Australia in 2025. “Latin America is growing really strongly,” says Oakley, pointing to artists like Bad Bunny and Rosalía as evidence that “you don’t have to sing in English” to top global charts.
Physical formats, meanwhile, staged a rebound, growing8.0% YoY globally, buoyed by a return to form for physical sales in Japan.
The full version of the Global Music Report Premium Edition 2026, which can be purchased here, digs deeper into each of these trends – with market-by-market revenue breakdowns, format-level data, and regional analysis covering more than 70 countries. (IFPI tells us that discounted access to the report and dataset is available for academic and non-profit organizations, as well as record labels, publishers, and distributors).
Outside of the high-growth emerging markets, the United States – the world’s single-largest recorded music market – grew just 3.3% YoY, an improvement on 2024, but evidence of the world’s most established streaming market’s maturity compared to the double-digit gains being posted elsewhere.
Oakley, though, is unfazed: “Anything that starts with a 3 is still a number that a lot of sectors would be envious of,” she tells MBW.
“I’m not worried about the US market,” she adds, pointing to global interest in Country Music and the success over the past 12 months of US artists like Taylor Swift, the world’s biggest-selling recording artist for a record sixth time.
“Growth in our industry is obviously good for us, but good for artists, good for fans, good for consumers.”
Victoria Oakley, IFPI
IFPI’s CEO joined the organization in June 2024 from strategic communications consultancy Portland, bringing nearly two decades in the British Diplomatic Service – including stints in Washington D.C., Brussels, and the Eastern Caribbean, where she served as High Commissioner – followed by a period as Google‘s Global Public Policy Director.
It’s a background that maps neatly onto the challenges, political, legal, and operational, facing the industry right now.
In our interview below, Oakley is candid about two threats she sees as defining challenges for the next chapter of the music business: streaming fraud, which she describes as “really lazy fraud” that is “really fixable” – and AI policy, where she warns that text and data mining exceptions risk undermining the licensing deals the industry is actively striking.
“I need governments to listen to us and to see that we are doing this,” she says. “What we really don’t want to see is legislation that pulls completely in the other direction.”
Here, Oakley discusses the IFPI’s 2025 global revenue figures, the markets driving growth, and why she sees “plenty of room” for the industry to keep climbing…
Photo Credit: ElenaR/Shutterstock
THIS IS THE $30 BILLION MILESTONE. HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THAT, PSYCHOLOGICALLY, FOR THE INDUSTRY?
I think it’s significant. If you look at that curved graph of where we were before streaming, and how we’ve had to build back up since, it’s really healthy to see that we’re now in our fifth peak.
I don’t think it changes how we talk to policymakers at all. We’ve always been an industry that is more present in people’s minds and perhaps has more clout than perhaps a $30 billion [industry normally would].
GROWTH ACCELERATED FROM 4.7% TO 6.4%. WHAT WERE THE BIGGEST FACTORS?
The biggest driver continues to be the increase in paid subscription streaming – more users, more people signing up, price increases, and also some of that interesting stuff you’re seeing in the tiers that certain platforms are offering.
“The biggest driver continues to be the increase in paid subscription streaming – more users, more people signing up, price increases, and also some of that interesting stuff you’re seeing in the tiers that certain platforms are offering.”
The other thing that’s driven the growth is this rebound of physical, which I find so fascinating. Vinyl is in its 19th year of consecutive growth. It’s no surprise that people still buy records. But what’s more surprising is the other physical formats. I was talking to friends about this at the weekend and saying, “Does anybody buy CDs anymore?” And yes, they do.
That has significantly come from the fact that the Asian markets – Japan and South Korea in particular – returned to growth in 2025 with strong K-Pop and J-Pop releases in the year, which is what’s driven that bump in physical.
HOW MUCH FURTHER CAN PAID STREAMING PENETRATION GROW GLOBALLY?
I think the room for growth is very clear. If this is increasingly consumers’ route of choice for listening to music, and if the platforms are continuing to innovate – whether that’s tiers, superfan engagement, or additional [services] – I see plenty of room for growth. More people are becoming subscribers, more people are paying more for different services within their subscription.
“People are paying for sport. People are starting to pay for TV. I’d like to see music as the next one in that step.”
India is the classic example. I was there recently, and it feels like lots of people are on one, if not two, streaming devices a lot of the time – and most of that is coming through the free tier. There’s lots of evidence [of paid conversion] being done successfully by other streaming services [for] TV, video on demand, and most famously, with cricket.
People are paying for sport. People are starting to pay for TV. I’d like to see music as the next one in that step.
CHINA OVERTOOK GERMANY TO BECOME THE FOURTH-LARGEST MARKET, GROWING 20.1%. WHAT’S DRIVING THAT?
China has its own impressive talent and repertoire, more and more of whom are coming to the fore. There are a number of platforms, many of which have increased their prices and are offering tiered, super-premium [services]. So you are seeing more consumers choosing to come to music, and more of those consumers paying more in multiple different ways.
One interesting differentiator between China and the next one up – the UK – is revenue from public performance and broadcast rights. Although these rights have been enshrined in Chinese law for a while, operationalizing it has proven quite tricky.
But there may come a time when China’s ability to fully make those collections kicks in, and coupled with continued growth, I think that could be really stellar.
LATIN AMERICA WAS THE FASTEST-GROWING REGION AT 17.1%. WHAT OPPORTUNITIES ARE YOU SEEING?
Latin America is growing really strongly. Brazil up to number eight, Mexico into the Top 10.
Latin music has been one of the huge beneficiaries of this democratization that’s come from streaming. People all over the world can be reached by Latin music, and it’s eminently accessible. A lot of people speak Spanish.
Credit: PressBad Bunny
But what you’ve also got is the Rosalía phenomenon: you don’t have to sing in English [to be a global superstar]. Bad Bunny (pictured) wins the Grammy for Album of the Year for an album entirely in Spanish. I think there’s a really exciting period ahead for Latin America.
NORTH AMERICA GREW 3.5%, ONE OF THE SLOWEST-GROWING REGIONS. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US?
Anything that starts with a three is still a number that a lot of sectors would be envious of. I used to work in consultancy, and lots of the businesses I used to look after would be delighted to announce 3% in growth. It is a very large and very well-established market already.
Credit: PressTaylor Swift was the world’s top-selling recording artist in 2025 – for the sixth year in a row
It continues to grow in multiple genres. The country music scene is phenomenal – it’s having a real push about finding its reach internationally. The biggest export focus for country music right now is Germany.
And look at Taylor Swift in this past 12 months. I’m not worried about the US market.
JAPAN RETURNED TO GROWTH AFTER A FLAT 2024. IS STREAMING GAINING GROUND THERE TOO?
One of the reasons there’s a global bump in physical is because there’s been a bump in Japan’s numbers. I think that’s mostly due to artists’ releases.
Snow Man released an album at the beginning of 2025 and Mrs GREEN APPLE released 10 half-way through the year. It must be the only place in the world where you can go to Tower Records and there are still eight floors selling records and CDs and videos. It feels like my youth.
Snow Man
But streaming is growing in Japan, and there’s an interesting conversation about when the tipping point comes. So far, the superfan piece in Japan has principally shown up around physical and ownership of products.
But if we start to see those premium tiers and different services – and even things using AI in an ethical and agreed way that allow you to engage differently with your artist – will that lead a generation to find that their superfan engagement can come through a streaming platform, rather than mostly through physical?
HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU THAT CURRENT MEASURES ON STREAMING FRAUD ARE KEEPING PACE WITH THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM?
At the moment, no. It’s not enough, because streaming fraud is still happening.
What we find particularly frustrating is [that] it’s really lazy fraud, and it’s really fixable. It requires all of those actors within the streaming value chain to come together and act on a similar set of principles.
“Unless we’re properly sharing [intelligence] amongst platforms and distributors, fraudsters just get shut down somewhere and move to another [platform]. You end up playing Whac-A-Mole.”
I need to see ‘know your customer’-type practices that are much tighter at the beginning – I think we can learn a lot from financial services. [We need] better vetting of material that [goes] onto platforms, good mechanisms to take down [fraud], and the critical piece: sharing.
Unless we’re properly sharing [intelligence] amongst platforms and distributors, fraudsters just get shut down somewhere and move to another [platform]. You end up playing Whac-A-Mole.
WHAT IS THE ONE THING YOU’D LIKE TO SEE FROM POLICYMAKERS ON AI?
I have a really clear view on this: We need governments to listen to us and to see that we are doing this. There are, I think, a dozen licensing arrangements in place, further partnerships and collaborations, and no doubt more to come – because we’re right at the beginning of this journey.
My concern is with policymakers who want to pass legislation that pulls completely in the other direction. We don’t want to see further text and data mining exceptions. We don’t want to see compulsory licensing.
It’s very simple. The music market will do this, and will do it well – just as it did in streaming, which is entirely based on licensing. What I don’t want to see is [a regulatory] vision that impedes that.
Deciding when to start your Social Security benefits is one of the most consequential choices you will ever make. It dictates your monthly income for the rest of your life, influences your spouse’s survivor benefits, and shifts your overall tax picture.
There is no single correct age to file. The system is designed to pay out roughly the same total amount over an average lifetime regardless of when you start. The math changes based on your health, your savings and whether you plan to keep working.
Let’s look at the advantages and drawbacks of the three major claiming milestones.
Claiming early at age 62
Age 62 is typically the very first opportunity you have to claim your retirement benefits. It is a popular choice, often driven by fear, but it comes with a steep permanent cost.
The pros: You get your money as soon as possible. If you are in poor health or have a family history of shorter lifespans, claiming early ensures you receive benefits while you can use them. It can also provide a crucial lifeline if you lose your job and cannot find new employment, allowing you to pay bills without draining your investment accounts.
The cons: You face a permanent reduction in your monthly check. If your Full Retirement Age is 67, claiming at 62 means taking a 30% permanent cut to your baseline benefit.
The earnings penalty: If you claim early and continue working, you run into the earnings test. The government will temporarily withhold a portion of your benefits if your income from work exceeds a specific annual limit. While you eventually get this money back in the form of higher checks later in life, it defeats the purpose of claiming early to boost your current income.
Waiting for full retirement age at 67
For anyone born in 1960 or later, age 67 is your Full Retirement Age. This is the age the government considers you eligible for your standard, unreduced benefit amount.
The pros: You receive 100% of your full benefit amount. Reaching this age also eliminates the earnings test. You can work as much as you want, earn a high salary, and still collect your full Social Security check every month without any withholding penalties.
The cons: You have to wait five years past your initial eligibility date. If you have a shorter life expectancy, you might leave money on the table compared to someone who claimed at 62 and collected checks for those five gap years.
Delaying for the maximum payout at 70
Every year you delay claiming past your Full Retirement Age, the government rewards you with delayed retirement credits. These credits stop accumulating when you turn 70.
The pros: You maximize your guaranteed monthly income. For every year you postpone claiming beyond your full retirement age, you see an 8% increase to your baseline benefit. This is a guaranteed 8% annual return — which is exceptionally difficult to find risk-free in the open market. Furthermore, if you are the higher earner in a marriage, delaying until 70 maximizes the survivor’s benefit your spouse will receive if you pass away first.
The cons: It requires patience and alternative funding. You have to fund your lifestyle from your own savings or wages throughout your late 60s. You also need to live long enough to reach the break-even point: Generally, you need to live into your early 80s for the total amount of your checks over the course of your retirement to exceed the total amount you would have collected by starting earlier.
Finding your personal sweet spot
Look at your health, your marriage and your bank accounts. If you have health issues or need the money to survive, claiming at 62 is a perfectly logical choice.
If you have longevity in your family and sufficient savings to bridge the gap, waiting until 70 is smart. It provides the highest possible floor for your guaranteed income late in life, when you are least able to go back to work.
Review your latest statements directly from the government, run the numbers for your specific household, and coordinate the timing with your spouse.
“A lot of times, we’ll help people uncover that they can do it sooner than they thought,” LiPari said. “We can help people uncover using leverage to acquire properties a bit sooner. A lot of that’s in the vacation home space. We work with a lot of clients who will say, ‘I love vacationing wherever, down at a beach community, but we’re not quite ready to carry the property ourselves.’
“We say, ‘Well, you told me you’ve been renting there every two weeks out of the summer. I know that’s not cheap, so we could even look at a model for them to see if they do almost like a hybrid, where they rent the property out most of the year, but they leave one week for their family. Now they’ve bought the asset.”
By choosing to structure the deal that way, the homeowner picks up the investment property years before they probably thought they would, which means they likely get it at a discount compared to what it would cost to buy it in a few years.
“Most vacation areas, specifically in New Jersey, those are not going to stop appreciating,” LiPari said. “So you have the asset now, and it might be 10 years from now before you feel comfortable having that truly as a sole second home, but you’re going to be happy 10 years from now that you did it this way, because it’s going to be that much more expensive in 10 years.”
Leveraging mortgage debt
Brokers can work with homeowners to look ahead, allowing them to leverage the built-in equity in their current properties to acquire more properties. It takes planning and foresight to get borrowers to understand that a little short-term debt can turn into major long-term wealth.
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Colleges are facing mounting pressure from multiple directions: federal policy, financial strain, and shifting student behavior. This week’s developments show how those forces are starting to collide, with implications for where students enroll, how colleges operate, and what it ultimately costs to earn a degree.
Here’s a quick look at the most important stories shaping higher education and student finances this week for March 20, 2026.
🎓 Headlines at a Glance
Federal officials threaten accreditor recognition tied to DEI standards.
New federal data highlights the scale of student loan debt and forgiveness.
The New School expands layoffs as budget pressures deepen.
Students say politics is influencing where they apply to college.
Faculty policy disputes continue to raise questions about campus governance.
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1. Accreditor Threatened Over DEI Standards
The U.S. Department of Education warned a major accrediting body that it could lose federal recognition if it does not revise standards related to diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Accreditors play a central role in determining whether colleges remain eligible for federal financial aid programs, including Pell Grants and student loans.
➡️ Impact: If an accreditor loses recognition, the colleges it oversees could risk access to federal aid, directly affecting students’ ability to pay for school.
2. Federal Student Aid Data Shows Scale of Debt and Forgiveness
New data from Federal Student Aid shows the federal student loan portfolio now exceeds $1.7 trillion across more than 42 million borrowers, alongside updated figures on repayment and forgiveness activity.
The big areas of concern are around delinquency and default, which are moving past pre-pandemic levels.
➡️ Impact: Understanding the size and trends of student debt helps frame future policy decisions and signals the long-term financial risks facing borrowers.
3. The New School Expands Layoffs Amid Budget Deficit
The New School announced it will be reducing up to 20% of its workforce as it works to address ongoing financial challenges.
The cuts follow earlier cost-reduction efforts and highlight continued financial strain at tuition-dependent institutions facing enrollment pressures.
➡️ Impact: Layoffs are often an early sign of deeper financial stress, which can lead to program cuts, reduced services, or future tuition increases.
4. Politics Increasingly Influences College Choice
A new survey found that more than half of prospective students say the political climate affects where they apply to college.
While students still prioritize academic programs and cost, political environment is becoming a growing factor in enrollment decisions.
➡️ Impact: Shifts in application patterns can reshape enrollment and revenue across institutions, creating financial winners and losers in higher education.
American Express released a cryptic Instagram reel about a new upcoming business card, “Coming Soon”. No details are given.
People found somewhere a graphic from American Express about a possible upcoming Graphite Business Cash Unlimited Card with $250 annual fee, 2% everywhere unlimited, and 5% on flights and hotels booked with AmEx Travel.
This would be a rival for the Chase INK Business Premier card which also earns 2% everywhere. That card has a couple of advantages over this rumored upcoming AmEx card: 2.5% on transactions above $5,000 and a lower $195 annual fee.
These cards can make sense for business owners who spend a lot and don’t do points. Not many business cards get 2% everywhere. For regular personal use there are more options. There’s also the Blue Business Plus and Blue Business Cash available with 2x/2% everywhere, I suppose this rumored new card would mainly be better for someone who needs unlimited.
Last year and earlier this year I wrote articles predicting a crash of 50% (or more) in Robinhood Markets(HOOD 0.94%) stock. After peaking last October, the stock is now down by around 51%.
Robinhood operates a popular investing platform where its clients can buy and sell stocks, options, cryptocurrencies, and more. The basis for my prediction was simple: Robinhood experienced a significant increase in value during 2025 mainly because of a surge in its cryptocurrency revenue, meaning its clients were engaging in speculative, high-risk trading, which history suggested simply wasn’t sustainable.
Now that Robinhood has lost more than half of its peak value, what will happen next? Here’s what I think.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Crypto trading is an unreliable source of revenue growth
The majority of Robinhood’s revenue comes in the form of transaction fees, which it earns every time a client buys or sells a financial asset, whether it’s a stock, an options contract, or a cryptocurrency. Donald Trump’s presidential election win in November 2024 drove a tsunami of investment into the crypto markets, because he campaigned on a series of policies that stood to benefit the industry.
This contributed to a surge in Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue, which rocketed 732% (year over year) higher during the fourth quarter of 2024, hitting a record high of $358 million. It represented more than half of the company’s total transaction revenue for the period. Something similar happened during the speculative crypto frenzy in 2021, which sent Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue soaring by 4,560% during the second quarter of that year. But just one year later, as crypto markets tanked, it was down by 75%.
History appears to be repeating itself. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue fell 38% compared to its peak in the fourth quarter of 2024, coming in at just $221 million. The company’s overall transaction revenue still climbed modestly due to a sharp gains in other areas of its business, like options trading and prediction market betting, but these activities are also highly speculative.
Image source: Robinhood Markets.
The total value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation stands at $2.5 trillion as I write this, which is down sharply from the 2025 peak of $4.4 trillion. The Trump administration’s pro-crypto policies haven’t created much tangible value for the industry, and since most coins and tokens still lack a true use case, they have struggled to hang onto their post-election gains.
None of the major coins have escaped the carnage, not even Bitcoin or Ethereum, which are both down more than 40% from their all-time highs. These steep losses are likely to keep many investors on the sidelines, which could result in a further reduction in Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue.
Today’s Change
(-0.94%) $-0.70
Current Price
$74.20
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$67B
Day’s Range
$71.70 – $75.15
52wk Range
$29.66 – $153.86
Volume
751K
Avg Vol
28M
Gross Margin
94.96%
Robinhood’s valuation leaves room for further downside
Robinhood stock peaked at more than $150 last October. At the time, its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio had soared to more than 30, which was almost triple its average of about 11.5 since the stock went public in 2021. Therefore, its valuation was completely unsustainable.
Despite the 51% decline in the stock during the past few months, its P/S ratio is still at an elevated level of 15.3.
HOOD PS Ratio data by YCharts
That means Robinhood would have to decline by a further 25% just to trade in line with its long-term average P/S ratio of 11.5. I’m not suggesting that will happen for certain, but I will say a high valuation reduces the odds of a rally in the near future, especially with one of the company’s core revenue drivers — crypto trading — in decline.
On a more positive note, Robinhood’s entry into the prediction market sector (in partnership with Kalshi) has expanded the company’s reach, because it lets clients bet on the outcome of sports matches, elections, and more. Robinhood ended the fourth quarter of 2025 with $435 million in annualized revenue from its prediction business, which more than tripled from the third quarter just three months earlier.
The prediction business could help Robinhood attract more clients, which would be good news considering its monthly active user base declined last year. But there is one caveat: According to research by The Motley Fool, the overwhelming majority of sports bettors lose money over time, which isn’t ideal if Robinhood is trying to attract repeat customers.
In summary, I think further downside is the path of least resistance for Robinhood stock.
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