AI could shave $2.2 trillion off the deficit, but 5 downsides could bring debt roaring back
AI could shave $2.2 trillion off the U.S. deficit by 2036. But according to a new working paper from economists at Brookings and the Federal Reserve, more than half of that savings could vanish — canceled out by the very disruption AI itself would cause.
In May, the U.S. national debt crossed the eye-popping $39 trillion mark. The difference between what the U.S. government spends and what it earns has become a galvanizing force for fiscal hawks of all political stripes. Without significant reform measures from Congress, the widening deficit threatens to deplete the trust funds that finance Social Security in 2032, and Medicare one year later.
Budget experts say fixing the deficit will require tax hikes, cuts to entitlement, or most likely, a combination of both. Absent that political will, AI has been floated as a fiscal escape hatch. A new paper suggests that escape hatch is narrower than advertised.
If AI leads to a major increase in productivity, higher output per worker across the economy could help boost government coffers and stabilize the budget, according to a working paper published Wednesday by the Brookings and Fed economists. On the revenue side, AI-driven productivity gains would mean the government can collect more from a bigger economy without necessarily raising tax rates. On the spending side, AI could also help erase inefficiencies, particularly in health programs, where administrative costs alone account for one quarter of all expenses.
In total, an AI productivity surge could reduce the country’s annual budget deficit from the roughly 6% of GDP it currently sits at to as low as 2%, the equivalent of $2.2 trillion wiped clean from America’s bill by 2036, the paper’s authors wrote. But that number comes with an immediate caveat the paper’s authors bury in their conclusion: the same AI boom could claw back more than half of those savings through five compounding side effects.
Technology has delivered such miracles before. In the 1990s, the Internet-driven stock market and economic activity boom led to a 2.2% increase in annual tax revenues as a percentage of GDP, according to previous Brookings research. The excitement of the decade led to a roughly 60% reduction to the deficit between 1992 and 2002.
But even though the 90s started strong for markets and the economy, they didn’t end that way. The dot-com-era gains eroded within a decade. Brookings’ economists warn AI’s fiscal boost could erode even faster — and identify five specific ways it happens.
- Longer lives, higher costs
One of the most life-changing impacts of AI could be in the very definition of that word. By improving medical diagnostics, treatment procedures, and the efficiency of healthcare, AI could drastically reduce mortality rates. Some clinical studies tracking the impact of AI-powered early warning systems have resulted in significantly reduced mortality for in-hospital patients. One AI algorithm, trained to identify patients at risk of sepsis, has been associated with a 17% relative decrease in mortality.
It’s a clear social benefit that’s virtually impossible to argue with. But a budget lens tends to look at life—and how long it lasts—differently. Longer lives also mean more years of Americans receiving benefits for programs like Social Security and Medicare, the Brookings researchers noted. A decline in mortality would result in a larger retirement-age population eligible to receive these entitlements, leading to higher spending.
The Brookings paper estimates a highly disruptive scenario could see 3 million more retirement-age people added to the population in 2036. AI could pave the way for a healthier and longer-lived population, but that could also be a more expensive one for the federal government to take care of.
- Tax base shifts
Widely integrated AI could spark major changes to how the government makes its money. In the 1990s, capital gains taxes were the biggest drivers of boosted government revenues, according to the earlier Brookings research. That’s relevant to the budget because in the U.S. wages are generally taxed more heavily than capital gains or corporate levies.
So far this fiscal year, individual income taxes make up 52% of all federal revenue, compared to around 6% from corporate taxes, according to the Treasury Department. Receipts from capital gains taxes tend to be even slimmer, as most wealth-building assets go unrealized. A 2024 IRS study found the effective tax rate on capital gains sat at around 5%.
If more of national income is earned as profits, rents, or returns to ownership rather than paychecks, as would likely happen in an AI productivity boom scenario, the average tax rate can fall even if total income rises, the Brookings authors cautioned. Improved productivity does not automatically translate to larger government revenues if the gains accrue mainly to asset owners rather than workers.
The result could be a narrower tax take than policymakers would expect from headline GDP numbers alone.
- Weaker labor force
One reason AI-driven productivity gains could increase corporate profits while failing to deliver a measurable gain in income tax receipts would be because there are simply fewer people earning an income they’d have to pay taxes on.
Whether AI will shrink the labor force by pushing workers out or discouraging them from participating remains an unanswered question with real implications for the federal budget. Lower participation means fewer people paying payroll and income taxes, and more people relying on income support programs that the government would have to pay out.
In disruptive AI scenarios, the Brookings authors project a 3% drop in the labor force participation rate, roughly the equivalent to 6 million fewer people working by 2036—a hit similar to the one dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic, but most likely to be permanent. This would mean millions more enrollments in programs like SNAP for food assistance or for disability benefits, weighing significantly on the government’s spending needs.
- Higher borrowing costs
By supercharging the economy, the AI buildout itself could also result in higher interest rates. Massive investment in chips, data centers, and supporting infrastructure may raise the neutral rate of interest, which in turn lifts market rates and federal debt-service costs.
In a high-debt environment, even a modest increase in interest rates can add a significant fiscal burden. The Brookings authors estimated AI productivity could add around $60 billion to the costs of servicing the federal debt by 2036.
- An AI ‘arms race’
Finally, AI could ignite an expensive international arms race, one that will eventually be the government’s cost to bear. If competitor countries accelerate military spending to keep pace with the capabilities developing at American firms, the U.S. may feel pressure to do the same, meaning the long-term impact of AI would be ramped up spending on the defense programs that already rank as the country’s most expensive.
Maintaining a strategic edge in the age of AI could end up adding over $350 billion in cumulative defense spending to the nation’s deficit over the next decade, according to the paper.
Overall, these five downsides could recapture more than half the fiscal gains the U.S. might expect from AI’s productivity shock — meaning the headline $2.2 trillion savings figure is, in practice, closer to $1 trillion or less. AI might enlarge the economy and delay some of the worst effects of the spiraling U.S. deficit, but it’s likely no replacement for the hard work of balancing the nation’s books over the long term.
Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar’s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won’t even matter
Investor Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame has a new short target in his sights: Caterpillar, the heavy-machinery giant that has surged thanks to the AI infrastructure boom.
Burry, the former hedge fund manager who famously predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and earned hundreds of millions of dollars for his investors in the process, said Caterpillar’s stock is now overvalued after a run-up that has seen its stock soar by more than 100% over the past year.
“Caterpillar jumped out at me,” Burry wrote in a Substack post this week. “I have never shorted Caterpillar. It has always done great for me on the long side in the past.”
Times have changed. The investor said he shorted Caterpillar at $1,060.98 per share Tuesday. By Wednesday, Caterpillar shares had closed down nearly 7%. As of Thursday, shares fell by as much as 4%, hitting their lowest point since the middle of June at about $949 per share.
Yet, not everyone agrees with Burry’s call. Sergey Glinyanov, a senior analyst at Freedom Broker who covers Caterpillar, told Fortune in an email that Burry’s short position isn’t likely to affect the stock at all. What the famed investor is missing is that Caterpillar’s share price isn’t surging because of AI hype, he said.
Glinyanov told Fortune that, in fact, investors are rewarding the company because it is benefiting from a fundamental shift in infrastructure spending.
“A structural theme is emerging,” Glinyanov told Fortune, pointing to a growing demand for on-site power systems, as AI data centers look for alternatives to an aging electrical grid that cannot always keep up with soaring energy needs.
As developers build bigger and bigger AI campuses, they are increasingly seeking out the diesel and natural‑gas generator power systems that Caterpillar sells to secure reliable power. The company’s positioning in this area sets it up to capture a larger share of that spending, Glinyanov argues.
As AI has propelled chipmakers like Nvidia to record highs, investors have also lifted the shares of other businesses that may benefit from hyperscalers and developers’ wave of spending as they scramble to build up data centers. These companies, including GE Vernova, which specializes in power generation, and Ohio-based Vertiv, which provides advanced cooling systems have emerged as a popular way to bet on the AI revolution without buying chipmakers directly. Shares of GE Vernova are up more than 60% year-to-date, while shares of Vertiv are up 70% over the same period.
Yet, investors are betting their money that Caterpillar will be among the biggest beneficiaries. The company’s stock had climbed about 172% over the past 12 months and more than 77% this year alone before Burry disclosed his position. Its price-to-sales ratio—a measure of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of revenue—is now at its highest level in three decades, he added.
It’s this run-up that has Burry betting the stock is overvalued. Yet his recent short against the company also builds on his broader belief that the market is in an AI bubble. In May, Burry said the market was “feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.” Along with his Caterpillar short, the investor also said he had refreshed his bet against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which tracks semiconductor companies, and had taken positions against Tesla and Nvidia.
It’s unclear, of course, whether Burry or Glinyanov will ultimately be proven right.
Glinyanov said the company’s traditional business of selling and renting heavy machinery remains healthy, with dealer inventories improving and retail demand holding up. The combination of consistency in its traditional business and its growing exposure to AI-related power infrastructure has contributed to the stock’s premium value, he said. The company’ strong results from the first quarter, which saw sales jump 22% year-over-year to $17.4 billion and beat Wall Street expectations, adds to his argument.
Even so, Glinyanov allowed that Caterpillar’s premium valuation ultimately depends on the biggest AI companies continuing to spend aggressively on new data centers and power infrastructure.
His firm’s price target for the company is $910, indicating a “potential near‑term pullback,” he said. If hyperscalers quickly pull back on their massive data center investments, some of the optimism surrounding Caterpillar could fade just as quickly.
“Should we observe deterioration in hyperscalers’ fundamentals—particularly cash flow generation or debt burden—multiples could face a meaningful pullback,” he said.
EBITDA, EBITA, or EBIT?
EBITDA, EBITA, or EBIT?
Rakuten Amex Card Increases 4% Cash Back Cap to $10,000
Rakuten Amex Card Increases 4% Cash Back Cap to $10,000
The Rakuten American Express® Card is getting a nice improvement starting July 15, 2026. The annual spending cap for earning an additional 4% Cash Back on eligible Rakuten purchases will increase from $7,000 to $10,000.
Purchases that earned 4% Cash Back before July 15 will count toward the new $10,000 cap. However, purchases made before July 15 that exceeded the old $7,000 cap and only earned 1% will not be adjusted retroactively. The higher cap only applies to eligible purchases made on or after July 15.
The higher spending cap is already live for new applicants. You can see it in the terms here.
A $100 referral bonus for the card will be launching soon as well, but it’s now clear if it will stack with the signup bonus.
Guru’s Wrap-up
This is a welcome enhancement for Rakuten Amex cardholders, especially those who do a lot of shopping through Rakuten.
In other Rakuten news, there’s a triple cash back promotion launching tomorrow and there’s a $50 signup bonus for new users.
HT: DoC
Form 4 Lifeway Foods Inc For: 2 July
Form 4 Lifeway Foods Inc For: 2 July
HECM endorsements climb even as securitization slips
Endorsements of Home Equity Conversion Mortgages climbed higher in June, while securitization volume shrank, painting a mixed picture of the latest HECM trends.
Processing Content
New HECM endorsements grew 4.9% on a monthly basis to 2,064 transactions, rising for the
When compared to the previous two years, HECM interest showed signs of contraction in early 2026, as a steady influx of
Rising interest rates may also play a role, but incoming application numbers through the first half of the year have largely remained consistent, the data intelligence platform said.
“HECM applications (as evidenced by case numbers issued) have been consistently above 3,000/month since February, so all indications point to steady (but small) volume until that changes,” according to the report. The endorsement represents the final step in the origination after an application has been reviewed and finalized.
Endorsements improved in six out of the 10 federal regions tracked by RMI, with the Midwest seeing numbers jump 49.3% to 200 units, its highest monthly total this year. Also rising to a 2026 peak, activity in the New York/New Jersey market increased 28.8% to 134 loans.
The two traditional leading markets for reverse mortgage originations saw activity go in opposite directions. Borrowers drove an upward bump of 11.9% in the Southeast/Caribbean region to 449 loans. Meanwhile, numbers in the Pacific/Hawaii market declined 7.3% to 470 between May and June.
Secondary HMBS issuances slide downward
Signs that reverse mortgage borrowers
June’s volume of HECM mortgage-backed securities settled at $456 million, 8.8% lower than May’s $500 million. On a year-over-year basis, HMBS activity took a steeper fall, decreasing 10.6% from $510 million in June 2025, according to the regular monthly report from New View Advisors.
“June issuance ranks approximately tenth lowest in terms of monthly issuance since 2009 but is the second lowest volume in the month of June during that time,” New View said in its commentary.
Meanwhile, first-participation issuances, representing initial HECM originations sold on the secondary market, slowed to $290 million last month, declining 14.7% from May’s $340 million. Compared to a year ago, production dropped 17.1% from $350 million.
Fifty-seven securities pools were issued in June, including 14 consisting entirely of first participations, New View reported. Another 40 were tail pools, accounting for draws from existing HECMs. Three comprised both first participations and tails.
Twelve June issuances had an aggregate size of less than $1 million, as lenders capitalized on a 2023 rule change that lowered the minimum pool threshold to $250,000. The amount within those securitized pools equals $6.5 million in unpaid balances that otherwise might not have been issued, New View said.
How individual lenders fared
Although
Landing in the second spot
In new issuances reported by New View Advisors, Finance of America also led with $179 million in production, increasing from $171 million month over month. Longbridge Financial brought $132 million to market, representing a decrease from May’s $133 million. Meanwhile, issuances from Mutual of Omaha dropped to $92 million, compared to $97 million a month earlier.
Year to date, the top three companies rank in the same order in first-participation offerings, with Finance of America issuing $581 million, followed by Longbridge at $516 million. Mutual of Omaha Mortgage has produced $369 million since January.
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Teladoc’s Recovery Story Is Starting to Take Shape. Should You Buy the Stock?
After years of lagging broader equities, Teladoc Health (TDOC +1.10%) is finally bouncing back. The company’s shares are up by 28% to date, while the S&P 500 has climbed just 9%. The telemedicine specialist still has plenty of work to do, but could it finally be on the road to full recovery? Let’s see whether Teladoc can maintain the momentum it has had this year.
Why Teladoc is bouncing back
At first glance, Teladoc doesn’t seem to be doing that much better. In the first quarter, the company’s revenue declined 2% year over year to $613.8 million. Sales from its BetterHelp virtual therapy division fell 9% year over year to $218.4 million, while the number of paying users on BetterHelp also fell 9%. Further, Teladoc remains unprofitable. It posted a net loss per share of $0.36, which, in fairness, was much better than the $0.53 loss per share it recorded in the year-ago period.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Still, overall, Teladoc’s financial results look mediocre. Why is the stock performing well? Part of the answer is that the market is paying attention to several developments that could help fix some of the company’s issues. Consider BetterHelp, which was once Teladoc’s biggest growth driver. For years, the company tried to get health insurance coverage for this unit. It has finally done so in many U.S. states thanks to an acquisition. Teladoc is seeing clear evidence that this is helping.
As the company reported, virtual therapy users who benefit from insurance coverage averaged about 20% more sessions than cash-paying patients in their first 90 days. Teladoc also expects to end 2026 with an annual run rate of at least $125 million for the company’s BetterHelp insurance-covered sessions — a meaningful improvement over the $75 million it had as of the end of the first quarter. Teladoc is also making progress elsewhere.
Notably, the company’s international expansion is still going well. In the first quarter, Teladoc’s international revenue grew by 17% year over year to $122.3 million. Meanwhile, Teladoc is implementing various artificial intelligence (AI)-powered initiatives across its business that could have a meaningful impact over the long run. For instance, the company has reduced the administrative work that BetterHelp’s therapists do through AI-assisted documentation, allowing them to spend more time focusing on patients.
This is good for everyone involved. Teladoc could continue to see much-improved financial results and stock price performance if it can keep launching initiatives like these.
Today’s Change
(1.10%) $0.10
Current Price
$9.20
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.6B
Day’s Range
$8.90 – $9.22
52wk Range
$4.40 – $9.77
Volume
4.3M
Avg Vol
4.7M
Gross Margin
54.63%
Is the stock a buy now?
Although Teladoc has addressed some of the issues it has encountered in recent years, it isn’t out of the woods just yet. Here are several things that could go wrong for the telemedicine company. First, although it is making some progress with BetterHelp, thanks to third-party coverage, the virtual therapy space is very competitive. That’s one reason why Teladoc faced — in the company’s own words — “mounting pressure” within its direct-to-patient cash-paying virtual therapy business.
Insurance coverage is helpful, but even with that, BetterHelp’s upside might be limited by the increasingly competitive nature of this industry. Second, although Teladoc’s international revenue has been growing faster than the rest of the business, the company’s global ambitions may eventually backfire. Managing legal and regulatory requirements, insurance rules and regulations, prescriptions, and many other matters that Teladoc engages in across different countries could turn into a nightmare.
We might see Teladoc’s expenses rise significantly as the company continues its expansion plans abroad. As a result, it may be difficult for the company to turn profitable. Lastly, although Teladoc’s AI-related work looks promising, it is unlikely to give it a significant advantage over most of its competitors, many of whom are also likely implementing similar strategies. The bottom line is that Teladoc has yet to demonstrate it can perform consistently, while it still faces significant headwinds. So, even with the progress it has made, its shares look fairly risky. Investors should keep that in mind before initiating a position. And only those comfortable with volatility should consider doing so.
If I Had to Start Over in Real Estate Today, I’d Do This
At 22, I went to work for a hard money lender doing purchase-rehab loans. I bought my first rental property at 24, which kicked off a decade of active real estate investing before I accepted how badly I’d bungled my early investments and unloaded all of them.
By my late 30s, I’d wiped the slate clean. My early losses and later wins offset one another, and I did end up starting over from scratch. After that, I managed to go from nothing to $1 million in under seven years despite a modest household income.
This is all to say this isn’t just a theoretical exercise for me. So, knowing everything I know today after 23 years in real estate, how would I start over today?
I’d House Hack for “Free Housing”
When I bought my first home, I rented out the other bedroom to a housemate I met on Craigslist. To this day, she and her now-husband are two of my closest friends. At one point, we spent a week in northern Italy together.
Granted, I was in my early 30s at the time and single. Today, I’m married with a daughter—and I’m still looking at buying a two-unit home to house hack.
If you can knock out your housing payment by having renters pay your entire mortgage, you can supercharge your savings rate. And that means building wealth extraordinarily fast.
I know, because I spent 10 years living overseas with free housing, which helped us invest huge amounts each month even with a middling household income.
Plus, house hacking gives you a first taste of rental investing and landlording. I discovered that I hated the constant hassles with contractors, tenants, property managers, the permit office, city inspectors, tax assessors, and lenders. But I refused to learn any lessons the easy way and had to learn them the hard way.
Hopefully, you can do better than I did in that regard.
I’d Start Passive, Not Active
Active investing requires dozens of micro-skill sets. A few include:
- Finding deeply discounted off-market deals (that’s actually a major skill set; nothing “micro” about it)
- Building a financing toolkit of different lenders and credit types
- Screening and managing contractors (who are notoriously difficult to work with)
- Screening and managing tenants (ditto)
- Screening and managing property managers
- Navigating the local permitting process and inspections
Skills aside, it cost a massive amount of my time. Owning rentals is a side hustle, and I spent too much of my nights and weekends putzing around with properties.
Oh, and it comes with more liability than novice investors realize: legal liability from lawsuits (I was sued twice as a landlord, and it really, really sucked), as well as debt liability when you sign a personal guarantee.
Do you know what’s much easier? Evaluating passive real estate investments—and then wiring the money and calling it a day.
Still, it raises the question: Where do you find passive real estate deals (especially as a non-accredited investor), and how do you vet them?
I’d Plug Into an Existing Community of Investors
Investing might feel like a solo sport, but it doesn’t have to be.
I invest alongside a co-investing club, putting in relatively small amounts ($2,500+) in a new deal every month. The club gets together once or twice a month on a group video call where we all grill the operator together with questions, then boot them off the call for an internal discussion of the deal’s risks and upsides.
We all get the benefit of each other’s knowledge and experience, vetting the deal together. That makes it easy for even novice investors to make intelligent, informed decisions.
It also helps to leverage communities like BiggerPockets. Before investing with a new operator, I run a search on the BiggerPockets forums to see what other investors have said about them.
Real estate investing gets much easier when you approach it as a team sport.
I’d Practice Dollar-Cost Averaging
When most people start investing in real estate, they park $50,000 – $100,000 in each new investment. For active investors, that’s the down payment, closing costs, initial repairs, and so forth. For passive investors, that’s the minimum investment.
That makes it really hard to invest consistently, which is why I don’t do that anymore.
Instead, I invest $2,500 or more each month in new deals as a form of dollar-cost averaging. Just as I invest monthly in stocks, I invest monthly in real estate.
It helps me avoid the losing game of trying to time the market. This, by the way, is far more tempting when you invest $50K-$100K at a time.
When you invest through a co-investing club, you go in on investments together, so each person can invest small amounts. Collectively, we might invest $400K-$800K at a pop, but each member only puts up a few thousand (or more if they want).
I have a diversified portfolio spread across dozens of cities and states and many operators and property types. I can only do that because I invest small amounts every month.
I’d Get Strategic About Taxes
Some of my investments come with the same tax benefits as active investments. Better in fact, because the operator usually does a cost segregation study to give me a huge write-off in Year 1.
Other investments come with no tax benefits, such as secured notes. But they pay such a high income yield that I don’t mind—I just offset them with the tax-friendly investments.
As investments sell and hit me with high tax bills, I’d use the lazy 1031 exchange strategy to offset them and keep kicking the can down the road. It’s super simple and doesn’t require any of the hassles like qualified intermediaries or rigid timelines. All I have to do is invest in a new equity investment in the same calendar year.
You can also do plenty of creative strategies with your IRA or 401(k), especially with Roth accounts.
If I Wanted to Start a Real Estate Business
Most people just want to add real estate to their investment portfolio without starting a side hustle or business around it. But what about investors who do want to make a business out of real estate investing? I’d consider two paths: cosponsoring deals or combining wholesaling and rental investing.
When you cosponsor deals, you get a cut of the returns in exchange for helping to raise capital among your friends, family, and followers. It’s a great way to get your foot in the door to becoming a real estate syndicator yourself and get some deals on your track record (even though you didn’t actually run them).
Alternatively, you could wholesale fixer-uppers to active investors. Some of those deals you could keep for yourself, renovating them and keeping them as rentals (the BRRRR strategy). The wholesaling business creates monthly revenue while you gradually build a portfolio of income properties.
Why Today’s Market Looks More Appealing Than Most
I stand by what I said about dollar-cost averaging and not timing the market. That said, it’s still worth observing the current market cycle.
Analysts such as BiggerPockets’ Dave Meyer see deals getting better for investors, as the shift toward a buyers’ market continues. That’s great news for both active and passive investors.
Multifamily values crashed 25%-30% in late 2022 and early 2023. The recovery has started but remains early enough that there’s plenty of room to run.
And when inflation surges (like it’s doing right now), real assets outperform everything else. Real assets have intrinsic value, so people simply adjust what they’re willing to pay even as the value of the currency changes.
You don’t need to plop down $50,000 for a down payment or minimum investment. You can get started with a few thousand dollars if you invest alongside a co-investing club and gradually build your empire. I now own an interest in over 5,000 units across the country, but I don’t have to lift a finger for any of them.
That’s how I’ve been investing for the last eight years since I started over in my late 30s. And it’s how I keep investing every month to build a machine that generates income on its own.