The July jobs report just came out and it was very ugly.
So ugly that the number of jobs created was negative instead of positive.
While that doesn’t bode well for the economy, it’s certainly a tailwind for mortgage rates.
It takes pressure off the Fed to hike in September, and it counteracts the fear of rising inflation related to the Iranian war.
If nothing else, it might allow mortgage rates to avoid a return to 7%.
Ice Cold Jobs Report Takes Pressure Off a Fed Rate Hike
I said we needed a cool jobs report or two to avoid a hike in September, and to possibly avoid a 7% 30-year fixed mortgage rate as well.
It looks like we just got one, and then some…
Not only was the jobs report a huge miss, it was a negative number.
The consensus forecast called for 83,000 jobs, but instead we got -23,000.
Interestingly, the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but only because labor participation declined (fewer people looking for jobs).
In addition, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment was revised down by 66,000 from +129,000 jobs to +63,000 jobs in May.
And from +57,000 jobs in June to only +20,000.
Combined, 103,000 fewer jobs were created than previously reported over this period.
Sound familiar? It should because the same thing happened last year, leading to mortgage rates down around 6%.
Of course, things are different today because there’s an active conflict and inflation is on the rise again.
Some argue it’s inflation over labor now, instead of it being labor over inflation as it was last year.
So while weak jobs data helps, it’s not as helpful as it was in 2025.
Bond yields only trickled lower today and mortgage rates may remain close to 52-week highs regardless.
Fed Can Pause Instead of Hike Despite Oil-Related Inflation
The Fed has a dual mandate to balance maximum employment with stable prices.
Lately they’ve had an inflation problem related to the Iranian conflict and surging oil prices.
This huge jobs report miss can surely be grounds for a hold instead of a hike at the September Fed meeting.
It can help offset that risk and give the new-look Fed under Kevin Warsh a reason to hold instead of hike.
We all know he was hired by President Trump to be accommodative.
And to cut rates, or at least not raise them.
If this labor weakness continues, it’ll make his job a lot easier.
They’ll be able to push the narrative that labor is weak and higher rate rates aren’t justified.
Conversely, had jobs numbers come in hot, there’d be very little place to hide and a hike would likely be a necessity.
This is all beneficial to mortgage rates because they don’t like a hot economy.
Mortgage rates tend to come down when there’s economic weakness.
If we see another slew of soft jobs reports like we did last year, mortgage rates can fall like they did a year ago.
Factor in some sort of peace deal, and then you’re really talking.
We’re not quite there yet, but this weak report would be the first step in a succession of things that need to take place.
Enough to Avoid a Return to 7% Mortgage Rates?
At this point, the goal might be more about avoiding a return to 7% mortgage rates then getting back below 6%.
If rates can at least stabilize and begin to drift back towards 6%, the housing market can perhaps get some life again.
Of course there is one big caveat; labor can’t get so bad that the wider economy goes down the tubes, taking the housing market with it.
So it’s a delicate balance where labor doesn’t come in too hot or too cold, and developments are positive in the Middle East.
You don’t want labor to do all the heavy lifting to the point where we’ve got a recession.
We need to make headway on inflation without labor spiraling out of control.
The good news is we avoided a really bad combo.
That is, a hot labor report coupled with the inflation concerns related to oil prices that would have been really ugly for mortgage rates.
In that case, a hike would’ve been more or less a forgone conclusion and mortgage rates would’ve likely gone higher ahead of that decision.
A 7% 30 year fixed wouldn’t be out of the question at some point in the next month or two.
Instead, mortgage rates and prospective home buyers got to breathe a sigh of relief today.
And if we get a new story out of the Middle East, that’s something positive is happening there, mortgage rates could finally break back towards 6.5% and lower.
But don’t hold your breath on that one.





