
Taysha Gene Therapies stock hits 52-week low at 3.69 USD
Taysha Gene Therapies stock hits 52-week low at 3.69 USD
Chevron vs. Occidental Petroleum: Which Energy Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
Energy markets are shifting as traditional giants navigate a low carbon future while maximizing oil output. Choosing between Chevron (CVX +1.09%) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY -0.76%) requires weighing massive scale against concentrated upstream potential.
Chevron is a fully integrated powerhouse, managing everything from oil wells to gas stations. Occidental focuses primarily on exploration and production, and has recently gained attention for its low-carbon ventures. While both profit from fossil fuels, their financial structures and approaches to the energy transition differ enough to impact your investment strategy.
CVX & OXY: Performance Comparison
Key Financial Metrics
CVX – Chevron
$217.34
+1.09% (+$2.34)

OXY – Occidental Petroleum
$60.67
–0.76% (–$0.47)
Market Cap
$425B
52wk Range
$146.49 – $217.78
Gross Margin
18.48%
P/E Ratio
20.61
EPS (TTM)
$10.43
Dividend & Yield
$7.05 (3.28%)
Market Cap
$61B
52wk Range
$38.80 – $67.45
Gross Margin
38.08%
P/E Ratio
18.11
EPS (TTM)
$3.38
Dividend & Yield
$1.04 (1.70%)

CVX – Chevron
$217.34
+1.09% (+$2.34)
Market Cap
$425B
52wk Range
$146.49 – $217.78
Gross Margin
18.48%
P/E Ratio
20.61
EPS (TTM)
$10.43
Dividend & Yield
$7.05 (3.28%)

OXY – Occidental Petroleum
$60.67
–0.76% (–$0.47)
Market Cap
$61B
52wk Range
$38.80 – $67.45
Gross Margin
38.08%
P/E Ratio
18.11
EPS (TTM)
$3.38
Dividend & Yield
$1.04 (1.70%)
The case for Chevron
Chevron operates as a massive integrated energy company, managing both oil production and refining. It produces crude oil and natural gas globally, with major operations in the Permian Basin and Australia. The company is also growing its presence in renewable energy stocks to diversify its long-term portfolio as it integrates its acquisition of Hess.
In its latest annual report for FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $184.4 billion, down roughly 4.6% from the prior year. This resulted in a net income of close to $12.3 billion for the year. The company reported a net margin of approximately 6.7%, which measures how much profit is kept from every dollar of sales after all expenses are paid.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.2x. This ratio compares total debt to shareholder equity, suggesting the company carries a light debt load. The current ratio, which measures the ability to pay short-term debts with short-term assets, is nearly 1.2x, while free cash flow reached approximately $16.6 billion in FY 2025.
The case for Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum focuses primarily on oil and gas exploration and production in the United States and the Middle East. The company is a dominant player in the Permian Basin and operates a large chemical manufacturing business. It is also investing heavily in carbon capture technology to reduce its environmental footprint and create new revenue streams.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $21.6 billion, down roughly 20.3% from the previous fiscal year. The company generated a net income of approximately $2.4 billion during this period. It maintained a net margin of roughly 11%, indicating a higher percentage of revenue converted to profit than many of its larger integrated peers.
As of the December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio stands at approximately 0.7x. The current ratio, which compares short-term assets to short-term debts, is nearly 0.9x, suggesting that short-term liabilities slightly exceed liquid assets. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was close to $4.1 billion, representing the cash left after capital investments.
Risk profile comparison
Chevron faces risks from commodity price volatility, as its profits depend heavily on global crude oil and natural gas prices. Operational hazards such as spills or mechanical failures are also constant concerns for a company of this scale. Additionally, the company must successfully integrate its acquisition of Hess to achieve its projected financial benefits and operational synergies.
Occidental Petroleum is sensitive to price fluctuations, which can impact its cash flows and debt repayment plans. The company faces catastrophic risks in the Gulf of Mexico, including potential well blowouts or severe weather disruptions. Furthermore, its carbon management strategy entails high costs and the risk that these technologies may not become commercially successful despite backing from major investors such as Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA +0.34%).
Valuation comparison
Occidental Petroleum carries a lower Forward P/E, which compares the stock price to future earnings estimates. Chevron has a lower P/S ratio, which measures the company’s value against its sales over the past twelve months.
| Metric | Chevron | Occidental Petroleum |
|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 12.7x | 9.4x |
| P/S ratio | 2.0x | 2.4x |
Valuation metrics include those sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from those of other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
To compare Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, investors should consider a few key factors. Let’s have a look at them and see what that tells us about each stock.
First, there’s profitability. Due to the volatility of energy prices, both companies’ overall profitability tends to swing wildly. However, over the last five years, Occidental’s operating margin has averaged 38%, while Chevron’s has been 16.5%. That gives Occidental an edge in profitability, although Chevron is much larger, with a total net income of $21 billion, far higher than Occidental’s $4.3 billion.
Another factor to consider is each company’s valuation. Here, again, Occidental can claim a slight edge. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.4x is less than Chevron’s 12.7x. For value-conscious investors, this valuation discount could serve as another reason to prefer Occidental stock over Chevron.
Finally, there are each company’s shareholder returns. Chevron has a solid dividend yield of 3.4%, while Occidental’s is 1.8%. Moreover, Chevron has increased its dividend payouts for 39 consecutive years, while Occidental has only done so for the last 5.
To close, both stocks are worthy of consideration for investors seeking to add energy exposure to their portfolio. However, the choice between the two will likely come down to investor preferences. Those who prioritize income generation will likely favor Chevron, given its larger dividend and long history of dividend increases. On the other hand, investors who favor value-based investing may be tempted by Occidental’s lower valuation multiple and higher profit margins.
inKind: Get 40% Cash Back at Restaurants Today
inKind: Get 40% Cash Back at Restaurants Today
inKind is showing a new promotion offering 40% cash back at restaurants when you pay with a credit card through the inKind app. That’s double the usual rates of 20%.
The offer appears to work at all participating inKind restaurants, making it a great opportunity to save on dining out.
This offer may be targeted, so check your inKind app to see if it’s available on your account.
Important Terms
- Offer: 40% cash back at participating restaurants
- How to Pay: Use a credit card through the inKind app
- Expiration: October 13, 2026
Guru’s Wrap-up
This could be an excellent deal if you’re planning to dine out today, especially if you can also earn credit card rewards on your purchase. Just make sure the promotion is showing in your account before paying, since it may not be available to everyone.
If you don’t have an account yet, sign up now to get $25 off $50. If you already have an account, check out more deals for existing users.
5 tips for brokers looking to build relationships with wholesalers
- What’s at Stake: Brokers who mistreat operations teams risk losing access to major wholesale lending partners.
- Expert Quote: “Sometimes too many options can become a bad thing.” — Damon Germanides, Insignia Mortgage
- Supporting Data: 45% of NEXA’s business funneled to a single wholesale partner.
Strong relationships are integral to the mortgage business, especially between brokers and their wholesale partners.
Although brokers are often treated as the client, they still stand to gain from building rapport and trust with lenders.
Processing Content
“A loan officer’s relationship with their wholesale companies affects the ability to serve their consumers,” said Mike Kortas, founder and executive partner at NEXA Lending. “If they have a great relationship, they can serve their consumers better. If they have a bad relationship with that wholesale investor, they can’t serve their consumers as well.”
Here are five tips industry experts have for brokers looking to build and maintain valuable partnerships.
Only work with a few lenders
Although a broker’s value proposition is in part their ability to offer options from multiple wholesale lenders, there’s benefit in ensuring your business isn’t spread too thin among too many, some say. NEXA primarily does business with United Wholesale Mortgage, which has resulted in increased commitment and focus from the lender.
About 45% of NEXA’s business is funneled to UWM, and in return, the lender dedicated more than 20 account executives solely to the brokerage. They are in contact with every loan officer weekly, Kortas said.
“That matters for the consumer’s benefit too,” he added. “Even if the rate is better, it’s still better for the consumer to go to the lender that has the better system or has the better communication because your transaction can get done quickly. You’re not going to run into all these headaches and nuances and things that frustrate people at closing, especially on purchase transactions. You want your loan officers going to the path of least resistance.”
Damon Germanides, co-founder of Insignia Mortgage and a top-10 mortgage broker in 2025 by total volume, according to Scotsman Guide, has found similar benefits to dealing with fewer lenders.
Insignia works with about 15 financial institutions from portfolio banks to home equity lenders, picking about two per category and feeding them most of its business. This way, when a broker needs an exception, rush order, or an appraisal to be rereviewed, lenders are more willing to deliver because of the strong relationship. Working with only select lenders also builds a familiarity that makes challenges easier to overcome, Germanides said.
“The optionality as a broker is a major advantage,” he said. “But sometimes too many options can become a bad thing. … [Having a few options] lets you focus more on building some flow and not being so spread thin on the processes for each lender.”
But Thuan Nguyen, CEO of Loan Factory and the No. 2-ranked broker in the United States last year by Scotsman Guide, warned that brokers should still keep their options open to ensure their clients receive the best rates and service.
Understand the process
A lot of brokers are good at finding loans but don’t put in the effort to ensure it’s a great one. Many don’t even know the guidelines of where they’re sending loans, relying on underwriters to tell them if it’s good, which delays processing and increases stress for borrowers, brokers and lenders, Germanides said.
“My recommendation: slow down, read it,” he added. “Lots of folks don’t do that. We still see it today, forwarding something that has no relevance to what the underwriter is asking for, saying, ‘clear condition, fund.'”
These mistakes often stem from the pressure brokers face and wanting to complete a loan as quickly as possible, but speed doesn’t matter if there are mistakes. Understanding the process helps brokers find solutions to issues and confidently communicate with the client or realtor why a loan is delayed as well, Germanides said.
Consistent quality applications also build trust between lenders and brokers, which results in quicker processing, more business and an improved reputation among lenders and borrowers, said Tammy Richards, chief strategy officer at NEXA.
Maintain clear communication
Brokers often serve as a connector between lenders and borrowers, making their communication with both vital.
Richards preaches clear communication and staying in contact with lenders throughout the loan process and beyond. The more personal a relationship, the easier it is to build trust, she said.
Nguyen checks in with lenders everyday during the loan process, as it can be unpredictable. Communication with the underwriter, along with account executives, is especially important to avoid miscommunication and fund the loan faster, he said.
“I see some lenders, they have last-minute conditions,” Nguyen said. “Those are the scary parts that can kill the deal and hurt the relationship.”
This communication also needs to occur between brokers and their clients to ensure the borrower is aware of pricing, product, policy or processing updates, Nguyen said. If it isn’t, borrowers could find themselves with a moving truck outside of a house they don’t have a funded loan for, which could significantly hurt a broker’s reputation.
Own up to mistakes
Brokers should not make mistakes, Nguyen said, but if they do, accountability is key.
“Integrity is so important,” he said. “We should not have too many excuses. If we make a mistake, we should admit it so that next time we won’t make the mistake again.”
Accountability and correction can help brokers who made a mistake get back in lenders’ good graces and earn another chance, said Katie Sweeney, executive vice president of strategy and broker advocacy at Rocket.
“It depends on how you respond to those kinds of strains,” she added. “Brokers who come to the table a little harsher than is necessary, that’s when trust breaks down and erodes really fast. There have certainly been situations that I’ve seen over the course of my career that the broker only got one chance, and that one chance was handled so poorly and was mismanaged so badly that there was no second opportunity to win that relationship back.”
Treat lenders well
The overarching piece of advice industry experts give is simple: treat lenders well.
Brendan McKay, president of the Broker Action Coalition, said he has heard of brokers who abuse operations teams and treat them horribly, stemming from the uneven power dynamic and direct pressure of a homebuyer when an application is slowed.
While the reputation of a broker does not spread as fast as a lender’s, it can still cost them business, and McKay recommends lenders be more selective in who they work with.
“They should be more aggressive in cutting brokers off,” he said. “Usually, those same brokers that are behaving terribly are also the ones that are submitting poorly constructed files that drag their operations into a slog.”
Some of the biggest lenders are willing to do this. Kim Nicholes, chief third-party originator production officer at PennyMac, said the lender has very low tolerance for this and will end the relationship if poor behavior is a persistent theme. Sweeny also said Rocket is willing to draw a line in the sand to show its team members the company has their back.
“We remind them all the time, don’t burn a bridge, don’t say a dumb thing because you’re mad and upset,” Kortas said. “Have control of your emotions.”
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Restructuring Mobile Game Giant Supercell for a Turnaround
BRIAN KENNY: Welcome to Cold Call, the podcast where we dive deep into the groundbreaking ideas in Harvard Business School case studies with the faculty who wrote them.
What do you do when the secret to your success might also be holding you back? Imagine building a company around a radical idea, hire extraordinary creative people, organize them into tiny autonomous teams, give them enormous freedom, and make the CEO as powerless as possible. It works spectacularly. You create some of the biggest mobile games in history, generate billions of dollars and build a culture so distinctive that employees actually toast with champagne when they kill a failed project. But then the hits stop coming and your existing blockbusters become increasingly complex businesses. And the organizational model that once felt revolutionary starts bumping up against a new reality. Do you preserve the culture that made you great or change it before the success turns into complacency? And what happens when the world’s least powerful CEO decides it’s time to lead a transformation? Today on Cold Call, we welcome Professor Jeffrey Rayport to discuss his case, “Supercell 2.0: Clash of Plans.” I’m your host, Brian Kenny, and you’re listening to Cold Call on the HBR Podcast Network.
Jeffrey Rayport’s research focuses on growth stage technology companies and how to scale them. And he is widely thought to have been the person to coin the term viral marketing. And I always have to say that when I introduce you, Jeffrey, because I think it’s the coolest thing. Welcome.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Well, thank you so much for having me, Brian.
BRIAN KENNY: And great to have you back on the show. If our listeners enjoy listening to you talk about Supercell, this case, they can find several other episodes. Most recently, we did a really fun one in front of a live audience about the School of Rock.
But Supercell is also going to be fun. I have to admit, I’m not a gamer. I’m sure many of our listeners are familiar with Supercell, but if they’re not, could you just tell us a little bit about what are some of their greatest hits?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: So Supercell is based in Helsinki in Finland, and they emerged, took the gaming industry by storm starting in 2012 as just a company of one or two years old with the introduction of their very first game, which was Hay Day, followed by Clash of Clans, the biggest hit they ever produced. What was so remarkable of Supercell is as you know, Brian, many of these companies are one hit wonders. Release a game, Rovio, Angry Birds became very famous, big property, but there’s never anything that big that came from Rovio again. But Supercell has managed to produce game after game after game, almost on a metronomic two-year cycle starting in 2012 all the way through 2018.
BRIAN KENNY: Amazing. Amazing. So tell me what was so distinctive about the Supercell organization? The protagonist in the case is Ilkka.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Paananen.
BRIAN KENNY: Paananen, thank you. Why did he believe so firmly that small autonomous cells were particularly well suited to creating hit games? And what is a small autonomous cell in this context?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Ilkka’s inspiration when he and five other gamers founded the company is they all had experience in the gaming industry. He’d been involved in a gaming startup before. The thing that struck him was that this is by any definition a creative industry. That means you want the most brilliant people in the game development space to want to come to work at your company. His view was that the best people in the industry, probably true of people in almost any industry, wanted freedom and autonomy and decision rights about the thing that they were building. And if he were to create a company that optimized for that, he would in effect cream skim talent, not just in Helsinki or Scandinavia, but talent all around the world by creating the most desirable company for which to work.
BRIAN KENNY: Okay. For the creative types. And I can tell you, marketing is a creative endeavor too. Managing creative people is a challenge. I mean, I think just the nature of being creative is sort of the sense of independence and you fall in love with your work in a way that makes it hard to be managed. So I can see he’s got a distinct challenge here. The Supercell culture produced, as you said, extraordinary results. Five global hits, billions of dollars in revenue, games with remarkable longevity. Hay Day is still very popular. When I downloaded it, I looked at the numbers, it’s still a very popular game. What made the model work so well and why do competitors have a trouble replicating it?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: I think the only explanation for why the model was so brilliant is that it really did succeed in attracting, in a sense, the most brilliant people. Ilkka’s philosophy was if you could attract the top talent, you then had the wherewithal to help create the world’s or the industry’s best teams. The best teams, he believed, would almost guarantee that they could produce the best games. The best games, of course, create the best player experience. And that means you’ve got more downloads and more word of mouth and more people playing the game. This is one of those industries where most people don’t spend a lot of time reflecting on the business model, but it’s kind of crazy. At the time that we wrote this case, the global gaming industry was roughly 180 billion in revenues, which made it vastly larger than Hollywood box office or the music industry. So big headline. Half of that industry was mobile casual gaming. Most of mobile casual gaming follows the business model that Supercell was one of the companies along with King Digital Entertainment made famous, which is free to play games. So when we say that Supercell has revenues and it has billions in revenues, what we are saying is that they’re producing these games, they’re giving them away for free, and they only generate revenues when people get so engaged and so fulfilled by gameplay that they want to spend money inside the game. So from Ilkka’s perspective, it was find the world’s best talent, create the world’s best teams, create the world’s best games, attract players who will be engaged at a high enough level that some small percentage of the total number of hundreds of millions of players who show up every month will now start spending money.
BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. And the spending money part begins pretty quickly. Again, I’ll go back to my own personal experience on Hay Day. Very quickly I had to buy some feed for my chickens. I’m on a farm. I’m trying to keep my livestock alive.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Yes, because we’re back to Hay Day and you really did have to tend your farm.
BRIAN KENNY: I did at the time, so I can see how that model can work very quickly. I’m wondering if you can talk a little bit about the culture of Supercell. One of the unique things the case talks about is that they actually celebrate failure. Many firms are good at starting things, they’re not good at stopping things. But what was this notion of celebrating and toasting a failed activity?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: We spend a lot of time in the entrepreneurship classes we teach talking about the value of in-market testing, about minimum viable products, putting them in the market, understanding that most of them will actually fail. They’re quick and dirty experiments. Ilkka’s view was that if you didn’t fail a lot, you weren’t taking enough risk. If you weren’t taking enough risk, you weren’t innovating. And it’s taken a long time, arguably in the US and Europe is sort of lagging that story from an entrepreneurial perspective, for people not to ascribe negative stigma to failure. So the intent of these champagne toasts at Supercell, celebrating the death of a game, either the failure or a team, a cell, deciding to kill a game, was all built around this idea that you need to create not just space, but social acceptance for failure and then have a set of rituals that are around celebrating in a sense the dividend of failure, which is learning from in-market experience. And that’s actually when I first met Ilkka at a tech conference I was co-hosting or emceeing down in New York City under the Brooklyn Bridge on the Brooklyn side. We had a little fireside chat and it was all about this company that people had heard of. They’d heard of the games. They didn’t really know what Supercell meant, but there was this curious practice and it was the champagne reception for failure.
BRIAN KENNY: I love it.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: And that is when I started thinking we’ve got to figure out how to put this amazing story into the form of a case study.
BRIAN KENNY: What’s the scale of the firm? How many employees did they have at the time that you wrote the case?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: At the time we wrote the case, it was about 520 employees. Top line revenues were about $2 billion. Remarkable thing was that it was $2 billion on the top line, but half a billion on the bottom line. We’re not talking about cash flow, we’re talking about actual net profit. So Supercell was by any measure a money machine, which made this decision that Ilkka made to reorganize it so dramatic because the company had been built on this organization structure, as you say, that related to culture was create a bunch of cells, hence the name Supercell, containing a bunch of cells. Each cell is like its own individual gaming company and the cells therefore have ultimate decision rights around product. The whole idea was that if there’s hierarchy starting with this least powerful CEO, it’s the organization chart turned upside down. So they’re there to support the cells. The cells are autonomous companies and they have absolute autonomy and freedom about what they do and what they choose to spend their time on in terms of creative output.
BRIAN KENNY: So everything’s going great. They’re making their profits, the culture is humming along. What were the signals that he saw that made him think, “We’ve got to change this?”
JEFFREY RAYPORT: The crazy thing when you think about their history starting with where we began, 2012, Hay Day and Clash of Clans. 2014, Boom Beach, another global billion-dollar franchise. 2016, Clash Royale, an extension of the Clash of Clans franchise, which became another global billion-dollar phenom followed in 2018 by a game that is much in circulation now called Brawl Stars, which in itself became a billion-dollar hit. So at that point, you can easily understand why SoftBank bought in back in 2013 at a $3 billion valuation and Tencent bought in 2016 at a $10.3 billion valuation. This was Europe’s first decacorn, a company in excess of 10 billion in value. So it made huge headlines, but there was one problem. After Brawl Stars in 2018, a year, two years, three years went by, and by the time you get to 2023, it had been a five-year drought in new games brought to market that could achieve this kind of global scale. And Supercell is famous, not just for champagne toasts to celebrate failure, but the reason there’s so many failures, like they estimate they’ve killed 30 games to launch five is that-
BRIAN KENNY: They’re drinking a lot of champagne.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: They’re drinking a lot of champagne and they’re setting a very high bar. And one of the mantras you hear inside the company is, “We don’t do $100 million games.” So even though an owner like Tencent might say, “Well, it’d be great if you hit a bunch of singles and doubles, I’ll take those because that looks like revenues.” The Supercell view is, “If it can’t be global and it can’t be a billion dollar franchise, that is not what we do.”
BRIAN KENNY: I think any leader feels that they might need to create a burning platform to demonstrate that there’s urgency to get the organization behind them when they need to make this kind of change. Is that what happened here? Was he able to convince people that we really need to make some changes or was there some resistance?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Well, there was a lot of soul-searching prior to any kind of decision about the reorg. And the funny thing is that Ilkka talked to all kinds of people, academics, investors, founders, gamers, and said, “I’m thinking about doing this radical restructure of the company.” And almost across the board, the response he got was, “You got a couple of hundred million people who play your games every month. You’ve got a couple billion in revenues. You’re taking home 500 million. You tell me what’s broken.” Everyone said, “Do not touch this.” His view, because of this five-year drought, was that the company was drifting further and further from its mission. The mission that they’ve had since day one is a wonderful one. It’s to build great games that are played by as many people as possible for many years and that will be remembered forever, meaning become the legends of the gaming industry. And so the answer to the question of how in that context do you create this sense of urgency? Ilkka did something very interesting. He got up in front of all the employees, over 500 at that time, and stood in front of them with a table next to them, and on the table was a bottle of champagne. And he was proposing a champagne toast to celebrate the learning from failure, but in this case, it wasn’t a game team, a cell sitting up there, it was the CEO. And he was effectively saying, “I have poorly served this company by not having made a change that would allow us to deliver more effectively over time on the mission instead of less.”
BRIAN KENNY: Interesting.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: His one piece of data, obviously he had a bunch of slides he put up on the screen, but the killer slide showed the overall growth in mobile casual gaming from 2015 up to late 2023. The market was up about 193%, so almost tripled in size. And Supercell during that time had declined by about 25%. So his point was we are on a path to irrelevance, even if it feels good, even if we’re wealthy, even if we have reasons to relax, even if we have a huge fan base, we either make this change to deliver on our mission or we’ve got to change the mission and hence the dream.
BRIAN KENNY: So don’t rest on our laurels, in other words. I’m wondering if you just pull the lens back away from Supercell, you’ve looked at a lot of firms, a lot of entrepreneurial firms over the years. Is this a fairly common challenge that eventually you kind of rise to that level where you’re so locked in on what you’re doing and you’re doing it well, but it inhibits your ability to be able to think about innovating and moving in a different direction?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: I think that’s right. There’s a lot of reflection at the company about the fact that they’ve been so fabulously successful and people have gotten so rich. The question is are they hungry enough and is that part of what they need to re-engineer into the culture of the company? But I think Brian, your point speaks to a much larger issue, which I try to frame when we teach the case. Every HBS class stereotypically has some kind of two by two matrix that goes up on the board. I try to avoid them at all costs, but sometimes they’re just unstoppable. In this case, it strikes me, it is instructive to say that every company, especially in the creative industries, wrestles with this question of how do you maintain a high octane approach to innovation and creativity? So that’s one axis, low, high, but the other one is everyone wants to grow.
So how do you do that in increasing scale? And when you stop and think, “Okay, so who’s in that upper right quadrant?” What Gartner would call the magic quadrant, in which you’ve got high levels of innovation and creativity and a very high level of scale, that becomes very rarefied air. It’s what the innovator’s dilemma was all about, which is that there is something about bigness that makes it difficult to maintain any kind of mojo as an innovator. And to some extent, that is the generic version of the problem Ilkka was trying to solve for.
BRIAN KENNY: And isn’t part of the tension that they’re up against too, is that they’ve got 200 million users, as you said, that are playing these wonderful games that they’ve already created. You have to continue to make that experience fun and you have to continue to make it a draw so that people will continue to log into those games. At the same time, you need to be sort of pushing the organization ahead and saying, “What’s the next game that’s going to become legendary that people are going to think about forever?”
JEFFREY RAYPORT: No question. And ultimately, both Ilkka and his number two, a wonderful guy named Greg Harper who was running North American operations and the creative studios from the West Coast, the way they started to think about it is that actually they were trying to do two jobs with one organizational model. One was, of course, managing these fabulous global billion dollar franchise games, as you say, with huge fan bases and engaged players, but the other one was originating new games. The fact that the cells were essentially tasked with, especially for the ones involved with the franchise hits, were essentially trying to do both jobs at the same time, that is what led to this sense that if we don’t make a change, meaning if we do not find a way to bifurcate the organization around what in the management literature we talk about exploration, exploration as in looking for the new opportunity versus exploitation, meaning develop the commercial value of the opportunity you have, that by trying to do both things well at the same time with the same people in the same organization, they would never yield an optimal result.
BRIAN KENNY: So what’s the model that they’re looking at? What are they considering?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: They essentially created two organizations out of one. One side is referred to as the New Game side of the house, all focused on new game origination, create new hits. The other side of the house is called Live Games, and those are the ones that operate those five franchise hits that we’ve talked about. The interesting question though is that to some extent, new games was attempting to replicate the early days at Supercell. What does it feel to be like a scrappy startup where capital and time are scarce resources? How do you simulate that in the context of a very successful company? Then by the same token, the challenge on the live game side was if you and I inherited one of these franchises, of course, as you say, we’d need a bunch of very creative people to continue to pave the highway as we drive down this no-end-game-scenario things that happen inside any one of these starting with a Clash of Clans or the Clash franchise.
But inevitably you would need marketing people and you need a technology help desk and you’d probably be thinking, “I can measure every keystroke on every mobile device across every one of these hundreds of millions of users.” So that means data collection, analytics, and now I need data scientists. I probably need a bunch of people who become go-to-market people, run virtual currency.
BRIAN KENNY: Sounds like a business you’re describing. Is this what we call a business?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: I think this is what we at HBS call a business. And needless to say, we in the business world think that a pretty good way to manage that is you set up some kind of organizational hierarchy and you have different functions around marketing and customer service and operations and finance, and all of that becomes the story. And by the way, that kind of makes sense given that you take Clash of Clans. I mean, that game alone generates about 1.3 billion a year. So the idea that you’d run a business like that with a bunch of creative types running around, no matter how brilliant they might be, first, they probably have better things to do. But the other part of it is that they’re doing the job of what might be done by hundreds of people.
BRIAN KENNY: And you may not have gotten into this in your research, but I’ll ask the question anyway. I’m wondering if there was any discontent among the creatives. Let’s say you were part of the creative autonomous cell that developed Clash of Clans. Do you eventually grow a little tired of that and you want to have the opportunity to move over to the live game side and try to do something entirely new? Do you feel short-changed because they’re creating this new group and you don’t necessarily have the sort of energy that comes with being part of that new startup?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: All of the above is true. I mean, one of the big questions is if you have a brilliant person or a brilliant cell and they create a brilliant game, is the reward for having been successful at originating a game that somebody takes it away from you? But the other part of it is, as you said, you need creative talent on both sides of the fence. So then the question is, is it a caste system? Are the really amazing creative people on the new game side, but the ones who are the journey persons, are they the ones working on the live game side? But you could also rotate that 180 degrees, which is the ones on the live game side, they’ve got an audience of a hundred million people. The ones on the new game side, their audience is the other members of the cell and a whiteboard. So all of these things were aspects of what Ilkka needed to figure out, which is why this decision was both very hard to make, especially with all the folks who said, “Why in the world would you risk upsetting the apple cart?” And then by the same token, once you’ve done it, a big challenge here is how do you make sure it works?
BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. And you mentioned the H word, hierarchy, which sounds like that was not a big part of the culture in the beginning of Supercell, but here now we find ourselves in need of a hierarchy. What’s the reaction to that within the firm?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: It was very funny when I was over in Helsinki having some conversations that became part of this case, I was talking to a guy named Stuart McGaw who runs the Clash of Clans cell. Now this is a live games organization, and he came into an all-hands meeting early 2024 when he had a team of… Get this, Brian. Remember, we’re talking about a billion plus top line. The cell was 17 people.
BRIAN KENNY: Yeah, amazing.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: So 17 people running this vast franchise, and he came into an all-hands meeting because they figured they needed a little more bench strength, so he was going to hire an art director. The art director was not a senior person, it was a mid-level person. And so he announced they were hiring the art director, and full disclosure, this person is going to be a middle manager. And the horror that spread through the meeting, people were like, “Wait a second, if we have middle managers, that means we have hierarchy. If we have hierarchy, then this isn’t the Supercell I signed up for.”
JEFFREY RAYPORT: So back to this notion of the whole strategy, the company is named after an organizational unit called a cell, a collection of organizational units. The social contract would seem to imply that the reason the world’s best talent showed up and was willing to work in Helsinki and live through Finnish winters and dark nights and all the rest of it, the whole idea is because there are privileges, there are rewards. Now you tell me that I signed up for freedom and autonomy, which this was a culture modeled on the Netflix culture deck where we only hire senior people and it’s all about freedom and responsibility. That’s exactly what Ilkka had designed into the cells. And now you tell me we’re living in a world with multiple levels of management, including, of course, by definition, middle managers.
BRIAN KENNY: The case also talks about the fact that in the new games area, the live games piece, Ilkka was trying to create some pressure. He wanted it to feel like a startup, and startups come, we know, with tremendous pressure and fear of failure and all those kinds of things. And oftentimes you’ve got to be held accountable for results and numbers and those things. I’m wondering, how was he able to manufacture, for lack of a better word, the kinds of constraints that would make people feel the sense of urgency that they need to produce and to continue producing inside a firm that’s already well established and is making a lot of money and having a lot of success?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: In a sense, he borrowed from the venture capital industry and said, “Listen, we are not a startup, and so the constraints are not going to be ones that have to do with the fact that we’re all wondering how we’re going to eat our ramen noodles tomorrow night.”
So they imposed a bunch of constraints, timelines, milestones, and then stage-gated the release of capital resources to these cells on the new game side, essentially to simulate what it would be like to be a startup that is subject to the tyranny of raising successive rounds of venture capital in order to progress. Perhaps the thing that gave it teeth was that in kind of classic Scandinavian corporate style, part of what he believed would make this work was a culture that was already practicing radical transparency. So you might say, “It’s easy enough to blow through a deadline. It’s easy enough to be three weeks late on hitting a milestone. So what? I’ll get the budget then instead of now and nobody’s going to stop paying my salary.”
So what they did was they made all of these commitments public to the entire company so that when somebody missed a milestone or a deliverable, that was when they had to explain themselves to 500 of their fellow Supercellians. And that has given the process some discipline that might otherwise be lacking in the context, again, of a very successful going concern.
BRIAN KENNY: At some point, does autonomy stop being an advantage and start becoming a constraint on scale?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: One of the things that is a fascinating moment in discussing this case in the classroom is this question of why you would select for a structure involving a flat organization and a less powerful CEO, as opposed to doing in effect what the rest of the corporate world does with powerful CEOs and big, disciplined, well-defined managerial hierarchies. And in general, the thinking in the management literature is that at one end of the spectrum is not quite a Supercell model, but it was called holacracy. It was made famous by Zappos where the cells in the Zappos context were called circles and in the Valve concept they’re called (Valve being another gaming company) cabals. There’s a philosophy called podularity in which they’re called pods. Some people refer to them as teams.
This is not a classic holacratic model, but the whole idea of pushing decision rights down in a sense to the front lines, people closest to the products and the customers versus the hierarchy is that we have essentially flat organizations because we’re trying to optimize for adaptability, and we have hierarchical organizations to optimize for reliability. And this is where the interesting moment comes up, which is we talk in the case about a game called Smash Land!, which was one of Ilkka’s personal favorites. It’s a game that easily he believes could have ranked in the top 25 of global games. It was in development to the point where it was not just a company playable prototype getting a bunch of positive feedback, but it actually gone into beta testing, meaning in market testing in smaller markets like Canada and Australia, in this case Canada. The fascinating thing was that the cell, the members of the cell went on a little retreat one day, something every Finnish household and workplace does, which is go sit in the sauna. And so the members of the cell went and sat in the sauna and the lead of the cell said to them, “I know that things have been going well with Smash Land! but I’ve got to ask the question. If you were going to take the next two to three years of your professional life and you were going to dedicate it to one project, one game, would Smash Land! be it?” I always imagine ever since I heard this story that it’s a scene out of some Scandinavian noir drama in which people are sitting there and the steam is wafting through the sauna room and everyone is sweating away, wrapped in their towels, and 20 minutes go by and then people make eye contact. And in this case, when everyone made eye contact, the answer was no.
BRIAN KENNY: That’s so interesting.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: So they killed the game and Ilkka found out about it a couple of days later. Now, that sounds great in the early days of Supercell because that’s maintaining the high bar, we only launch billion-dollar hits. But if you turn that around and say, okay, so now you’re the guy sitting at Tencent headquarters in Shanghai, and you just had a conversation with the CEO at this company you own a controlling interest in, above 80% of the equity of the company, and you’ve come into it at a $10 billion valuation. And last month when you talked to the CEO, Ilkka, he talked to you about how excited he was about this next game that was in the pipeline. It would be the next big, the sixth billion-dollar global franchise hit. And now you call up and you say, “Hey, how’s that thing going?” And you’ve got a CEO that says, “Well, I got to tell you, it doesn’t exist anymore. The cell killed it.”
BRIAN KENNY: Wow.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: At this point, you start to think maybe reliability isn’t such a bad idea, meaning maybe something when you get beyond those early days that has an element of controllability and visibility around outcomes starts to become a better or more compelling idea.
BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. Talk a little bit more about Ilkka. What’s his leadership style like? He’s been with the firm since its beginning, is that right?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: He is one of the founders of the firm and was CEO from the beginning.
BRIAN KENNY: And so how does his leadership style kind of evolve over time? It sounds like he’s learning on the job as he goes.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: He is a huge ice hockey fan and he has always believed that the role of a CEO is a coach, not a player. And as we all know whether it’s an orchestra conductor or the coach of a sports team, they don’t play a note and they don’t make goals. So his view was that you set people up for success, you have a huge amount of say about who it is who comes into the organization. He always had sign off on who it was who came together to form a cell, often had input on who would be the lead in the cell, and of course ran all the corporate systems that supported the cell. But when it came to decisions around product itself, those rights were owned 100% by the cells themselves. And so that has been very much his style. And in fact, when he was talking about making this change, the thing that dawned on me, it was just at the time when Paul Graham from Y Combinator had written the famous blog post about founder mode, about all these founders starting with Brian Chesky to Airbnb had come back into their businesses when the organization had grown large and kind of lost its sense of what the real product expression was or the vision was, they’d come back and they put their hands all over everything. In Ilkka’s case, he was never a game developer. And so what did founder mode look like for Ilkka? It was to come back into the thing that was his product, which is the company itself, and choose to reengage, to reshape it.
BRIAN KENNY: Okay. And so his self-described role as being the least powerful CEO ever is just because he was really leading from behind. He wanted to let the creative, the autonomous cells sort of have the glory and he was just there enabling them in their work.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: In the view that you don’t get the best people, hence the best teams, hence the best games, if you don’t give them that level of freedom and autonomy.
BRIAN KENNY: Again, consistent with managing creative resources. It’s the same idea.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: So it was interesting that one of the ways in which he explained to me his peace with the decision was that as much as people might say, “Wait a second, middle management, hierarchies, this seems to fly in the face of what I signed up for at Supercell.”
His counterargument was of course, ultimately the north star here is doing what’s best for players. But he also had a view that it was very much around the creative talent within Supercell, which is if you created one of these incredible hits that has gone global and become a focus over many, many years of hundreds of millions of people. The question is: is the company guilty of underserving the brilliance of the intellectual property by not investing in the commercial engines to grow the impact over time? So to some extent, this is about serving the player, but it’s also about serving the creators.
BRIAN KENNY: How was he able to know if things were working? At what point did he say, “I think we’re onto something here. I think this might actually work.”
JEFFREY RAYPORT: You’re talking about after the reorg?
BRIAN KENNY: Yeah.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: One measure of course is how well is the company doing? Another measure of it is has the company released new franchise hits? In a sense, it’s a mixed news story. 2024, it turned out that applying commercial scale, including some hierarchical organizations inside of the live game cells, lit up some of these preexisting franchises. So during that year, Brawl Stars, as our students say, blew up in the best sense. It became a huge phenomenon all over again. The following year they applied the Brawl Stars’ playbook to Clash Royale, which became a huge phenomenon all over again. And just to give you a sense of the impact, in 2024, revenues were up year-on-year, 77%.
BRIAN KENNY: Wow.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Profitability was up over 80%. The company grew from a top line of just over two billion to over three billion, and it continued to perform at that level for the next year. So from the commercial standpoint, it’s very hard to argue that the reorg wasn’t essential to breathe new life into the franchises or put it differently to enable these existing franchises to grow to their full potential, meaning this was evidence that they’d been dramatically, maybe dramatically underserving that potential. But what we don’t know, partly because it’s a little bit early to know, is whether this reorg on the new game side will have produced more global hits. And on that, the jury is still out.
BRIAN KENNY: Okay. I’m wondering if there’s sort of a meta lesson here that can help leaders distinguish between their company’s fundamental values and organizational practices that have sort of become sacred traditions. I go back to the champagne thing. I don’t know if they’re still doing that, but he’s introduced sort of a new way of operating here and it seems to be working really well. Is there some lesson that leaders can take away about when to really separate from some of those traditions that were part of the original culture?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: I think that it’d be fair to say that there’s a very highly generalizable, well-known management lesson of which this case is a good example, which is this is the power of an ambidextrous organization. This is a term coined in the pages of Harvard Business Review by Mike Tushman and others many, many years ago. But the whole idea was you have one side that is discovering new opportunity, drug development, new motion pictures, new franchises, and the other side of course is running the Lion King franchise for Disney or Frozen or anything else. I think the other side of it is that we tend in the entrepreneurial world to romanticize the origin culture of any venture. People often harken back to those early days and see them as the purest expression of what the venture was meant to do in the world, the value it was meant to create.
I think that one thing we’ve learned from this case and others is that culture is maybe more importantly an input than an output, meaning that this is not something that is sort of a spiritual gauzy thing that’s wrapped around adventure and never changes, but actually it’s something that smart founders and CEOs, to your point, who are learning and evolving on the job can look at culture as one of the levers that they have at their disposal to manage a successful scaling process. And that when the situation, the market, the product, the success or lack thereof selling in what the company currently does, when all of that changes as it always does, that it’s essential to think about culture as something that you evolve to, that you design the culture for the scale and stage of the venture, which inevitably means that culture must change.
BRIAN KENNY: And there’s probably the inverse case to make that if you feel like you’ve strayed from your culture too much, you need to have a sense of what your values were in the beginning to be able to go back and use that as a touch point. And that could even serve to sort of re-energize the firm. Is that fair to say?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: I think it’s very fair to say that. And to some extent you could argue that Ilkka’s version of founder mode was to come back to this notion of, in a sense, a more expansive view of the kind of brilliant creative talent he was looking to attract, meaning that if you accept the fact that it’s a level playing field, they’re brilliant people who extend franchises creatively and they’re brilliant people who originate them, then the question is how do you build in a sense, a bigger tent to accommodate that diversity of creative talent? And you don’t do that if you’re underserving the commercial opportunity and you don’t do it if you’re distracting a bunch of people from the invention of the new games.
BRIAN KENNY: So we’re running out of time, but one question I would ask you is if you were sitting in Ilkka’s chair today, what would you be watching most closely over the next one, two, three years to determine whether you’re succeeding? Is it just the money, the finances, or is it you’ve created the next blockbuster game that’s going to be remembered forever, or is it both?
JEFFREY RAYPORT: I think the answer, dissatisfying as it may be, that you’ve got to say it’s both, meaning that there is clearly much evolution to be done across the five existing franchises. They’ve done huge transformation. We can talk about it in a different podcast, but just to give you a sense of the drama of it, the comparable game to Clash of Clans is King Digital Entertainment’s Candy Crush saga.
BRIAN KENNY: Which we’ve talked about on another podcast if our listeners want to find that.
Editor’s Note: If you’d like to listen to the Candy Crush episode, please find it here: https://hbr.org/podcast/2018/05/candy-crush-was-a-blockbuster-can-king-digital-capitalize
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Yes. Lo, so many years ago. And at that time when the Clash of Clans cell hired that first middle manager, one of the questions was how big should the cell be? And so Stuart, who ran it, logically called up his counterpart who was running the Candy Crush team within King Digital Entertainment and said, “I’m running Clash of Clans with 17 people. You have comparable revenues. How big is your team?” And the answer was 700.
BRIAN KENNY: Oh my goodness.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: So inevitably you’ve got to conclude that 700 may not be the right answer, but 17 is clearly not the right answer. Somewhere between those two numbers is the right answer. And that right answer is the thing that allows you to build essentially the commercial engines that deliver on the potential of those existing hits. But you cannot judge the success of the reorg without asking the other question, which is when is the next hit game going to come out of the new game side of the house? And that’s got to be a metric you’re watching and that they’re watching very closely within the company.
BRIAN KENNY: Yeah. I assume you’ll be watching as well. Maybe you’ll write another case about it.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Can’t wait. A huge fan of Ilkka’s and of Greg’s and of the whole team there as well as of the company. These folks really do play a high integrity version of the free to play game of their own, which is you don’t have to spend a dollar, a euro, to have access to the full glory of every single one of these products. So it’s not a bunch of great stuff behind a paywall. It’s a handcrafted experience for players who really want to engage. And of course, the business model depends on some of them caring enough, like you feeding your chickens in Hay Day.
BRIAN KENNY: If you want to get the best chicken feed, you do have to spend a dollar.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: That’s a different story. Either that or do a subscribe and save with Chewy and make sure that the ownership delivers.
BRIAN KENNY: We’ve also talked about the “Chewy” case. So our listeners definitely have to go back and look at the catalog to see all your great cases that we talked about.
Editor’s Note: Listen to the Chewy episode here: https://hbr.org/podcast/2022/10/chewy-coms-make-or-break-logistics-dilemma
JEFFREY RAYPORT: That’s right. Well, we didn’t talk about your chickens in the context of the “Chewy” case.
BRIAN KENNY: No, we didn’t. Jeffrey, thank you for joining me.
JEFFREY RAYPORT: Brian, thank you so much. It’s been a real pleasure.
BRIAN KENNY: If you enjoy Cold Call, you might like our other podcasts: Climate Rising, The Founder Mindset, IdeaCast, Managing the Future of Work, Skydeck, and Think Big, Buy Small. Find them wherever you get your podcasts and check out our video episodes on the Harvard Business School YouTube Channel.
We want to hear from you! Email us at: cold call@hbs.edu. Thanks again for joining us. I’m your host Brian Kenny, and you’ve been listening to Cold Call, an official podcast of Harvard Business School and part of the HBR Podcast Network.
Do Unemployment Benefits Count On The FAFSA? 2027-28 Rules
Key Points
- Unemployment benefits are taxable income, so they’re already included in the adjusted gross income the FAFSA pulls from your federal tax return. Don’t report them again as untaxed income.
- The 2027-28 FAFSA uses 2025 tax information. If a parent lost a job in 2026 or 2027, the form won’t show it, and the fix is a special circumstances review at each college’s financial aid office.
- A documented job loss can cut the Student Aid Index by thousands. In one example, dropping parent income from $100,000 to $60,000 lowers the SAI from 11,957 to 3,006.
Yes. Unemployment benefits count as income on the FAFSA because the IRS treats them as taxable income, and the FAFSA starts with your adjusted gross income (AGI). Benefits received in 2025 are part of the 2025 AGI that the 2027-28 FAFSA imports directly from the IRS, so they raise the Student Aid Index the same way wages do.
The bigger issue for most families is timing. The 2027-28 FAFSA is open now and looks back to 2025 income, so a layoff in 2026 or 2027 doesn’t show up on the form at all. Families in that spot can ask each college to adjust their aid through a process called professional judgment. Here’s how unemployment benefits are treated on the form, and how to get the aid office to account for a job loss.
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| Situation | What The FAFSA Sees | What To Do |
|---|---|---|
| Benefits Received In 2025 | Counted in full as part of 2025 AGI, imported from the IRS | Don’t report them again as untaxed income. Ask for a review if the job is still gone. |
| Job Lost In 2026 Or 2027 | Not reflected. The form shows a full year of 2025 wages. | Request a special circumstances review at every school on the list |
| Student Received Benefits | Counted in the student’s own AGI | Same review process, with the student’s own documents |
| Independent Student Laid Off | Counted in the student’s (and spouse’s) 2025 AGI | Request a review once current income is lower than 2025 |
| Benefits From 2020 | Not used. The form doesn’t look at 2020 income. | No action needed |
How Are Unemployment Benefits Counted On The FAFSA?
Unemployment benefits count as income on the FAFSA because they’re included in your AGI. According to the IRS, unemployment compensation is generally taxable. Your state reports the amount in Box 1 of Form 1099-G, and it goes on line 7 of Schedule 1, which flows into the AGI on Form 1040. That AGI is what the FAFSA uses to calculate the Student Aid Index (SAI).
That means $15,000 in unemployment benefits raises the SAI about the same as $15,000 in wages. There’s one small difference. The SAI formula subtracts an allowance for Social Security and Medicare taxes on income earned from work, and unemployment checks aren’t wages, so they don’t get that allowance. The effect is minor, but it’s why the federal aid formula treats a dollar of benefits as slightly more available than a dollar of pay.
The rule covers state unemployment insurance and the other programs the IRS lists, including railroad unemployment benefits, trade readjustment allowances, and disaster unemployment assistance. If you were required to file a 2025 return and haven’t yet, file it before completing the FAFSA so the IRS data can transfer, and our list of free tax software covers the no-cost options.
Which Tax Year Does The 2027-28 FAFSA Use?
The 2027-28 FAFSA uses 2025 tax information, which is the prior-prior year rule. Unemployment benefits received in 2025 are counted. Benefits received in 2026 or later aren’t on the form at all, and neither is the drop in wages that came with them. The form covers aid for the July 1, 2027, to June 30, 2028, school year, and you can check federal, state, and school FAFSA deadlines to see when each one is due.
The lag cuts in two directions. A parent laid off in mid-2025 already has some of the loss reflected, because 2025 AGI shows only part of a year of salary plus the benefits. A parent laid off in March 2026 shows a full year of 2025 salary in the AGI, even though the household may now be living on unemployment. That second family is the one most likely to be overcharged by the formula, and the one with the strongest case for a review.
Current college students filing for the 2026-27 year are in the same position, one year back. That form uses 2024 income, so a 2025 or 2026 job loss isn’t on it either, and the FAFSA Submission Summary will show an SAI based on the old income.
Should You Report Unemployment Benefits As Untaxed Income?
No. Unemployment benefits are already part of your AGI, so adding them as untaxed income would count them twice and raise your SAI for no reason. The FAFSA Simplification Act cut the old list of untaxed income questions down to a handful of items that appear on the tax return, such as untaxed IRA distributions and tax-exempt interest. Unemployment compensation isn’t one of them, because it’s taxed.
This trips up families who filled out the FAFSA before 2024, when the form had a long untaxed income worksheet. Today, most of the tax data transfers straight from the IRS once each contributor gives consent, so the safest move is to let the import do the work and not add amounts by hand. Double-reported income is one of the FAFSA mistakes that cost families aid, and it’s easy to avoid.
Do Unemployment Benefits Count Differently For Parents And Students?
Unemployment benefits count as income for whoever received them. A parent’s benefits go into the parent AGI, and a dependent student’s benefits go into the student’s own AGI. The difference is how hard each is assessed. The formula assesses a dependent student’s income above an income protection allowance at 50%, which is steeper than the rate on parent income at most income levels, so a student’s own benefits can raise the Student Aid Index faster than the same amount received by a parent.
Independent students report their own (and a spouse’s) income, including any unemployment benefits. A student who was laid off and went back to school is a classic case for a review, because 2025 income may look nothing like what the student can actually pay now. For divorced or separated families, only the benefits of the parent who provides the FAFSA information for divorced parents (and that parent’s current spouse) count.
Can A Job Loss Help You Skip The FAFSA Asset Questions?
Sometimes, but not because of the unemployment benefits themselves. The FAFSA leaves assets out of the SAI if parent AGI is under $60,000 and the parents didn’t file Schedule A, B, D, E, F, or H, or if anyone in the family received a means-tested federal benefit in the prior two years, according to our breakdown of when FAFSA assets don’t have to be reported. Unemployment benefits are reported on Schedule 1, which isn’t on that list, so receiving them doesn’t disqualify a family from the income test.
Unemployment insurance isn’t one of the nine means-tested federal benefits the FAFSA asks about. Several programs a family may qualify for after a job loss are. That list includes SNAP, Medicaid, the refundable premium tax credit for marketplace health coverage, and free or reduced-price school lunch for a younger sibling, and the 2026-27 FSA Handbook lays out the same exclusion rules. If anyone in the family received one of those in 2025 or 2026, check that box, and assets drop out of the calculation, which can move a family closer to a good SAI.
The old “dislocated worker” question is gone. Before 2024, a laid-off parent could check that box to qualify for the Simplified Needs Test or an automatic zero EFC. The FAFSA Simplification Act removed the dislocated worker criterion entirely, so a job loss after the tax year now goes through the school’s review process instead of a checkbox on the FAFSA form.
How Do You Ask The Financial Aid Office To Adjust For A Job Loss?
Contact the financial aid office at each college and ask for a special circumstances review, also called a professional judgment review or financial aid appeal. Federal law lets aid administrators adjust the income on your FAFSA for a “change in employment status, income, or assets,” and every school must publicly tell students they can request one, according to the 2026-27 FSA Handbook’s special cases chapter. File the FAFSA first, with 2025 income as required, and then make the request so the school has an SAI to adjust. Our explainer on what counts as a good SAI shows where your number falls today.
Five rules shape how these reviews work:
- It’s school by school. An adjustment is valid only at the school that makes it, so a family applying to six colleges needs to ask six aid offices. Each one can reach a different answer on your financial aid offer.
- Verification comes first. If the FAFSA was selected for verification, the school has to finish that before it can make a professional judgment adjustment. Your FAFSA Submission Summary shows whether you were selected.
- Policies vary.
Jefferson College in Missouri, for example, requires at least 10 consecutive weeks of unemployment before it will review a job-loss request. Ask each school for its form and its rules before sending documents, and keep the FAFSA deadlines for state aid in mind while you wait. - The decision is final. An aid administrator’s decision can’t be appealed to the Department of Education. A polite, well-documented first request matters more than a second try, and the cost of attendance can be part of the same conversation if the job loss also changed costs.
- It takes time.
Florida International University’s 2026-27 form warns that reviews can take up to 30 business days, so request early rather than waiting until a tuition bill is due. That timing also helps with first-come, first-served grants that run out.
What Changes During A Disaster Or Economic Downturn?
During a disaster, emergency, or economic downturn, the same handbook chapter gives aid administrators an extra option: they can set income earned from work to zero for an applicant who documents receiving unemployment benefits, or who shows an application for benefits was filed. That documentation should be no more than 90 days old, though schools can accept older records. Outside of those periods, schools use their regular review process, which can still reduce income to reflect a layoff. Our Pell Grant income chart shows how far income has to fall before a student reaches the maximum award.
What Documents Do You Need For A Job-Loss Review?
Expect to document the job loss and show how current income compares with the AGI on your 2025 return. The Department of Education has said adequate documentation of a job loss could include a letter from the former employer or a letter from the state unemployment office that refers to the job loss. School forms commonly ask for:
- A layoff or termination letter showing the last day of work
- The state unemployment approval letter or payment history, and Form 1099-G for any benefits already received
- A final pay stub, plus any severance agreement
- An estimate of income for the current year, including new part-time or contract work
- A signed statement explaining what changed and when
Send copies, keep the originals, and note the date you submitted everything. These reviews happen on each school’s own portal or by email, separate from StudentAid.gov, so track each request alongside your state and school FAFSA deadlines.
How Much Can A Job-Loss Review Change Your Aid?
A review can change aid by thousands of dollars because the SAI moves quickly as income falls. Using our 2027-28 SAI chart, a family with two dependent children, no reportable assets, and no student income has an SAI of 11,957 at $100,000 of AGI. If a parent is laid off and the aid office agrees to use the family’s current income of $60,000, the SAI drops to 3,006.
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| Item | Before Review | After Review |
|---|---|---|
| Parent Income Used | $100,000 | $60,000 |
| Student Aid Index | 11,957 | 3,006 |
| Need At A $30,000 School | $18,043 | $26,994 |
| Pell Grant At The 2026-27 Maximum | $0 | About $4,389 |
| Added Financial Need | $8,951 |
That 8,951-point drop raises the family’s demonstrated financial need by $8,951 at any school whose cost exceeds the SAI. It also changes Pell Grant eligibility. At $100,000, the student gets no Pell Grant. At the 2026-27 maximum award of $7,395, an SAI of 3,006 works out to a Pell Grant of about $4,389 for a full-time student, and the 2027-28 figure will follow that year’s maximum.
How much of the new need a school fills is up to the school. Some fill it with federal loans and work-study, while colleges that meet full need may add institutional grants. Run your own before-and-after numbers in our SAI calculator before you send the request, so you know what to ask for.
The Pell rules also have a new hard stop. Since July 1, 2026, a student whose SAI is at or above twice the maximum Pell Grant gets no Pell Grant at all, which was 14,790 for 2026-27. A family sitting just above that line on 2025 income may fall under it after a review, which is another reason to ask even when the income drop seems modest. Our Pell Grant overview has the full income tables.
What If The Review Doesn’t Close The Gap?
Use the cheapest money first: any grant the review produced, the student’s own Federal Direct Loans, a tuition payment plan, and only then a parent or private loan. A tuition payment plan spreads a semester’s bill over several months for a flat fee and no interest, which can cover a few thousand dollars without new debt.
Parent PLUS loans don’t have an income test, only a credit check, so a parent can qualify while unemployed. Two cautions apply. New Parent PLUS loans are capped at $20,000 a year and $65,000 per student since July 1, 2026, and they can only be repaid on the standard plan, with no income-driven option to fall back on while the job search continues. If the parent is denied a Parent PLUS loan, the student becomes eligible for higher unsubsidized loan limits.
If the numbers still don’t work, our walkthrough of what to do if you can’t get a student loan covers the remaining options, from a gap semester to a lower-cost school.
What Happened With The 2020 Unemployment Benefit Exclusion?
The 2020 exclusion was a one-time rule that only affected the 2022-23 FAFSA. The American Rescue Plan Act, signed March 11, 2021, made the first $10,200 of 2020 unemployment benefits tax-free per person for households with modified AGI under $150,000. Families who filed 2020 returns before the law passed had the benefits in their AGI, while later filers didn’t, so two identical families could show different adjusted gross income on the 2022-23 FAFSA.
The Department of Education fixed that in an October 2021 electronic announcement. It used its HEROES Act authority to waive reporting the excluded benefits as untaxed income, and it required aid administrators to remove them from AGI as a correction when they learned of it. The exclusion was never extended, so unemployment benefits from 2021 on are fully taxable and count in full on the current FAFSA.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Unemployment Count As Income For The FAFSA?
Yes. Unemployment compensation is taxable and is included in the AGI the FAFSA imports from your federal return. On the 2027-28 FAFSA, benefits received in 2025 count, and you can see how that income affects aid on our SAI chart.
Will Unemployment Benefits Reduce My Pell Grant?
They can, because they raise AGI and the SAI the same way wages do. The Pell Grant shrinks as the SAI rises, and a student whose SAI is at or above twice the maximum award gets none. A job loss after 2025 can work the other way if the school agrees to use current income.
Can You Appeal The FAFSA After A Job Loss?
You can’t appeal the FAFSA itself, but you can ask each college’s financial aid office for a special circumstances review. The school can adjust the income used to calculate your aid, and its decision is final. Start by filing the 2027-28 FAFSA with your 2025 tax information.
What If My Parent Lost Their Job After I Filed The FAFSA?
Don’t change the FAFSA’s 2025 income, because the form has to match the tax return. Contact the aid office at each school, explain the change, and send documentation such as a layoff letter and unemployment benefit records. Our financial aid basics explain how the school turns the new SAI into an aid offer.
Is There Still A Dislocated Worker Question On The FAFSA?
No. The FAFSA Simplification Act removed the dislocated worker question starting with the 2024-25 FAFSA, along with the Simplified Needs Test and automatic zero EFC it fed. Job losses are now handled through each school’s review, and the asset exclusion rules in our FAFSA asset breakdown replaced the old shortcuts.
What If I’m Unemployed And Already Repaying Student Loans?
Federal borrowers who lose a job can apply for an unemployment deferment or switch to an income-driven plan, where the payment is based on current income. Loans made on or after July 1, 2027, won’t be eligible for unemployment deferment. Our page on student loans when you’re unemployed walks through each option.
Editor: Clint Proctor
Reviewed by: Robert Farrington
The post Do Unemployment Benefits Count On The FAFSA? 2027-28 Rules appeared first on The College Investor.
Matthew McConaughey spent a weekend in the desert reading 20 years of bad reviews: some had a point
Matthew McConaughey has an Oscar, an estimated $200 million net worth and a hefty catalog of 20 years’ worth of reviews—good and bad. Despite his clear career success, he collated all the worst things ever written about him, went to the desert for a weekend, and read every one.
“I took them on as a thick book… not all the positive, the negative ones—and I sat with them,” McConaughey said in a recent interview with Build or Break.
“It’s all I took, and I spent two days looking at them, and it was hard.”
And he learned from the tough experience that there are two kinds of critics—and only one is worth listening to.
“Some of the reviews, what I learned is that, from the very first sentence, this person has it out for me. It didn’t matter if they saw the movie or not. They just don’t like me. They were going to write a negative review,” McConaughey explained.
Not every bad review was out to get him, though. Some were still critical, but actually useful.
“I was like, ‘This person got a point.’ They’re actually a fan of mine, and they didn’t get from my performance what I was actually hoping they would’ve got. Where did I fail in achievement?” That he says is constructive criticism.
“They were looking at the work and objectively criticizing it. Applauded some things, but also applauded some things that shined a light on where I came up short.”
His next question was simple: What can I learn from that?
“Some are going to write bad about you or wish you the worst no matter what, because they just don’t like you from afar, don’t like your success or what have you,” he added. “Some are really good critics or write constructively about what you did wrong—and you can learn from it.”
And it’s a lesson you can carry into every discipline. No matter how good you are, there’s always room to learn more. But first, you have to separate the feedback that’s real from the noise.
Taking criticism is even now a job interview test—and one CEO says candidates who ‘get offended’ aren’t a fit
McConaughey’s team told Fortune the trip to the West Texas desert near Marfa came around 2018 or 2019, while he was writing Greenlights. By then, he’d been in the business for more than two decades, since his 1993 breakout in Dazed and Confused, with major hits like Interstellar and True Detective already behind him.
And he’s hardly the only big name who keeps taking feedback on board.
Ozark actor Jason Bateman said in an interview with Esquire last year that he also reads all the reviews for his television shows and movies because they shape how he shows up for the people on the other side of the silver screen who are paying to see him play.
“I am doing these projects for public consumption, so it matters to me what the public thinks about them,” he said.
And at the top of the business world, there’s no resting on your laurels either.
Despite growing a $5.5 trillion company from the ground up, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is still hard on himself. After more than 3 decades of climbing to the top, he still works seven days a week and says he’s “always in a state of anxiety” that Nvidia could go under. “Nobody suffers better than I can,” Huang recently said in conversation with the Korea Society. “In order to do something incredible, you have to suffer. It’s not a walk in the park. If it’s a walk in the park, anybody could do it.”
He’s even admitted he’s “still working on being a good CEO.”
And he’s no softer on his staff. The billionaire boss says he criticizes everything they show him. “You can’t show me something without me giving you some criticism,” he told CNA.
Huang said he believes feedback works best when delivered immediately, and with improvement (not punishment) in mind.
“Just like a Taiwanese parent, once the feedback is given, you’re back to loving the person again,” Huang said. “And so, I’m always critical of everybody’s work so that I can help them be better.”
Ralph Lauren CEO Patrice Louvet doesn’t believe in sugar-coating feedback either. “Sometimes people need to be hit by a 2×4 across the forehead, because it doesn’t always register right,” he told LinkedIn’s This is Working podcast.
The French-born Fortune 500 exec said that addressing weaknesses sooner rather than later can help businesses—and careers—thrive.
One CEO thinks the ability to take feedback on board is so important that he’s testing for it in the interview room.
Gagan Biyani, the CEO of the education platform Maven and a cofounder of Udemy, has started giving candidates critiques live in the interview, sometimes in front of a full panel. He calls it the “most telling part” of the process, and it’s often what decides whether they get the job.
“If this is their nightmare, [the] candidate freezes up or even gets offended,” Biyani added it highlights straight away that they are ‘not a fit’ for the company. “If this is exciting, they are more likely to join.”
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How to Recover from a Bad Performance Review and Rebuild Trust
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Key Takeaways
- Before you respond to a bad performance review, stop and really listen to what your manager is saying. You can listen without agreeing to everything in the review.
- Assess your company’s review culture; do they prioritize development after a poor review, or is it the first step to your exit?
- Launch what I call an “internal PR campaign.” It might feel unnatural and uncomfortable to talk about your accomplishments at first, but internal visibility is important.
- Read the writing on the wall. If your company has a history of laying off its employees after a bad review, prepare yourself in advance.
A senior director of engineering came to me after receiving a bad performance review. He had received feedback that he wasn’t strategic enough, didn’t communicate at a high enough level and needed to learn to delegate. After years of getting great reviews, he felt blindsided.
During my career coaching executives managing thousands of direct and indirect reports, I’ve learned that a performance review isn’t necessarily a reflection of your performance but of your PR skills. And these days, your boss probably has less visibility into your work than ever. Gallup reports that, as of 2025, the average number of people reporting to a manager is roughly 12. Team sizes have grown nearly 50% since Gallup began measuring in 2013, when the average was just eight.
If you recently received a bad review, the steps you take next matter much more than the review itself.
1. Listen before you respond
Your first job during the review is to listen. It’s easy to become defensive when someone criticizes your work, but defensiveness can confirm the reviewer’s conclusions about you.
Instead, respond with a line like: “Thank you for sharing this feedback.” Since I coach a lot of tech clients who like numbers, I remind them that feedback is data. Your job is to decide how to turn that data into insights and action.
You can listen without agreeing with everything in the review. You can request time to return with examples that ensure your manager sees your full contributions. This might sound something like, “I plan to get back to you next week with my response to the review.” There’s a big difference between arguing with a review in the moment and presenting evidence a week later.
2. Diagnose your company’s review culture
Before you decide on a response strategy, you need to know what kind of company you’re working at. I’ve seen firsthand that some companies truly invest in developing leaders after a bad review, while others issue a bad review as a formal notice that they’re going to fire you.
How do you tell the difference? Reflect on what happened to the last few people who received bad reviews. You can also ask your HR business partner directly whether there’s a realistic path to the other side of this review. It sounds obvious, but HR will often tell you the truth. If you have a peer you trust, you can also disclose your concerns to them and compare notes. Your boss’s nonverbal signals during the conversation will give you information as well. Together, this data will tell you whether to invest in rebuilding or start planning your exit.
When the senior director I’m working with probed further, he learned that his company regularly gave tough reviews but didn’t always fire people afterward. Instead, the people he talked to said leadership was truly invested in development. Learning this informed our strategy.
3. Launch an internal PR campaign
With the senior director, we first had to understand why executives saw him this way. It turned out that he had been at the company for more than a decade and had been promoted several times, so executives still saw the engineering manager he used to be rather than the senior director he had become. This pattern is common among leaders who have grown their scope, including a client I’m currently coaching who is navigating the tension of becoming his former peers’ boss.
Part of the fix was how he showed up. Another part was how executives perceived him. Because of this, we ran what I call an internal PR campaign. Every three to four weeks, we identified one thing he had achieved and discussed a way to publicize his progress to his boss, his boss’s boss and the C-suite. Promoting himself felt unnatural given his technical background, so we practiced small steps first, like sharing updates in Microsoft Teams and via email. For example, he broadcast to his colleagues that his team had identified major bugs leading up to a major software launch. In the past, he would have just assumed that everyone would notice.
Truthfully, most clients resist this kind of promotional campaign at first. It can feel like bragging, and they believe their work will speak for itself. But in my experience, it rarely does. Imagine your boss has seven direct reports, and each of them has seven of their own. That makes you just one of 49 voices competing for the attention of a leader whose attention resources are limited. A lack of internal visibility is also a big reason high performers get passed over for promotions.
Six months later, at his next review, he received an “exceeds expectations” rating. He was also tapped to lead a special project in another country that was a high priority for the CEO, all because he had rebuilt trust at every level, from his boss to the senior executive team.
4. Read the writing on the wall
Sometimes a bad review means the company has already made up its mind. I worked with a C-suite executive at a company with a track record of laying people off shortly after giving them bad performance reviews. Unlike the senior director, he didn’t feel like he could turn around this perception before the company acted.
He decided to launch a stealth job search. Simultaneously, he made sure his work was airtight, assuming his boss was looking for any reason to terminate him. This required working harder than ever while applying for positions and interviewing on the side. He landed a new role in four months, ahead of his next review, when he believed the company would move to terminate him.
(If you have repeated experiences like this across companies, it may point to a deeper question about whether you keep landing in the wrong leadership roles.)
Final thoughts on recovering from a bad performance review
You can recover from a bad review, and better yet, often prevent one. Your goal is to make sure you’re never surprised again. While it’s your boss’s job to provide you with feedback, it’s also your job to seek it out. I encourage clients to ask for feedback often, and to ask more than once. Clarifying that you want critical feedback, not just praise, is what makes the habit work. When you build regular feedback into your approach, the formal review tends to become a recap of conversations you’ve already had. You’ve got this!
Key Takeaways
- Before you respond to a bad performance review, stop and really listen to what your manager is saying. You can listen without agreeing to everything in the review.
- Assess your company’s review culture; do they prioritize development after a poor review, or is it the first step to your exit?
- Launch what I call an “internal PR campaign.” It might feel unnatural and uncomfortable to talk about your accomplishments at first, but internal visibility is important.
- Read the writing on the wall. If your company has a history of laying off its employees after a bad review, prepare yourself in advance.
A senior director of engineering came to me after receiving a bad performance review. He had received feedback that he wasn’t strategic enough, didn’t communicate at a high enough level and needed to learn to delegate. After years of getting great reviews, he felt blindsided.
During my career coaching executives managing thousands of direct and indirect reports, I’ve learned that a performance review isn’t necessarily a reflection of your performance but of your PR skills. And these days, your boss probably has less visibility into your work than ever. Gallup reports that, as of 2025, the average number of people reporting to a manager is roughly 12. Team sizes have grown nearly 50% since Gallup began measuring in 2013, when the average was just eight.
If you recently received a bad review, the steps you take next matter much more than the review itself.

