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Best Student Loan Refinance Rates for June 25, 2026: Credible Leads At 3.59%
Student loan refinance rates have held steady throughout the first part of 2026 as the Fed has held interest rates steady. As of June 25, 2026, student loan refinance lenders are offering fixed rates as low as 3.99% APR and variable rates starting as low as 3.59% APR, depending on credit profile, loan type, income, and repayment term.
Credible is offering both the lowest variable rate loans starting at 3.59% APR and Credible and Splash tie for offering the lowest fixed rate loans starting at 3.99% APR.
For borrowers with private student loans especially, refinancing to lower your interest rate can save you thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
💰 Today’s Best Student Loan Refinance Rates At a Glance
Here are the best student loan refinance rates today:
|
Lender |
Fixed APR |
Variable APR |
|---|---|---|
|
Credible |
3.99% – 10.35% |
3.59% – 10.72% |
|
Earnest |
4.45% – 9.99% |
5.88% – 9.99% |
|
ELFI |
4.29% – 8.44% |
4.74% – 8.24% |
|
LendKey |
4.39% – 9.24% |
4.14% – 9.19% |
|
Splash |
3.99% – 10.24% |
4.74% – 10.24% |
1. Credible – Credible is a marketplace of student loan lenders that has some options you may not be able to find anywhere else. You can also get up to a $1,000 gift card bonus if you refinance through their platform. You can get variable rates as low as 3.59% APR. Read our full Credible review.
2. Earnest – Earnest is one of the best known online student loan lenders and they have been offering consistently competitive rates for years. Right now, you can get the lowest fixed rate APR at 4.45%. Read our full Earnest student loans review.
3. ELFI – ELFI is one of the oldest student loan lenders, and offers competitive rates, along with a bonus offer of up to $599 if you refinance a student loan with them. You can get rates as low as 4.29% APR. Read our full ELFI Student Loans Review.
4. LendKey – LendKey is a private lender that pools money from community banks and credit unions to offer lower rate student loans. They are also offering up to a $750 bonus if you refinance a student loan. You can get rates as low as 4.14% APR. Read our full LendKey review.
5. Splash – Splash is a student loan marketplace as well that offers some lenders that Credible doesn’t.They have a fixed rate offer starting at 3.99% APR. Furthermore, you can up to a $500 bonus if you refinance with Splash. Read our full Splash Student Loans review.
You can find a full list of the best student loan refinance lenders here >>
Why Should You Refinance Your Student Loan?
Refinancing replaces one or more existing loans with a new private loan — ideally at a lower interest rate.
Borrowers typically refinance to:
- Reduce their monthly payments
- Lower their overall interest cost
- Combine multiple loans into one
- Shorten or extend repayment terms
Refinancing can make sense for private loan borrowers or federal borrowers who no longer need federal benefits such as income-driven repayment or forgiveness. Remember, refinancing a federal loan will cause you to lose federal benefits like student loan forgiveness!
For example, refinancing a $60,000 loan from 7.50% to 5.50% over 10 years saves roughly $7,000 in interest.
Fixed vs. Variable Rates: Which Should You Choose?
There’s a lot of uncertainty that borrowers don’t like with variable rates, which can make sense, but in a declining rate environment, it also opens the potential for future savings. Here’s what to know:
- Fixed rates stay the same for the life of the loan, offering predictable monthly payments. They’re better for borrowers who plan to repay over many years.
- Variable rates can change with market conditions, starting lower but carrying risk if the Fed raises rates again. They can make sense for borrowers who expect to pay off loans quickly.
Most private lenders allow you to check rates without affecting your credit score. Always compare both options before signing.
What To Know Before Refinancing
Before refinancing your student loans, make sure you understand exactly what you’re signing up for.
- Loss of federal benefits: Once refinanced, federal loans are no longer eligible for PSLF, IBR, or other income-driven plans.
- Cosigner options: A creditworthy cosigner can unlock lower rates. Check if the lender offers cosigner release after a set number of on-time payments.
- Term flexibility: Many lenders allow terms from 5 to 20 years; shorter terms usually mean lower rates.
- Autopay discounts: Most lenders offer a 0.25% rate reduction when you enroll in automatic payments.
- Fees: The best refinance lenders charge no origination fees or prepayment penalties.
How We Track And Verify Student Loan Rates
At The College Investor, our editorial team reviews student loan rates daily from more than a dozen major lenders. We verify data using official lender disclosures, regulatory filings, and real-time rate sheets.
We only include lenders offering loans to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. All rates are updated regularly and represent the lowest available APRs with autopay discounts applied.
Our coverage is independent and not influenced by compensation. While we may earn a referral fee when you open a loan through certain links, this never affects our editorial recommendations. Our goal is simple: to help you find the most affordable path to borrow responsibly.
FAQs
Can you refinance federal student loans?
Yes, but doing so converts them into private loans, meaning you’ll lose access to forgiveness and income-driven plans.
How often can you refinance?
There’s no limit – you can refinance multiple times as long as you qualify for better terms.
Does refinancing hurt your credit?
A small, temporary drop in your credit score may occur after the hard inquiry, but steady payments improve your score over time.
Do refinance rates change daily?
Yes, lenders adjust rates frequently based on market conditions and Treasury yields.
Is there a best time to refinance?
The best time is when your credit and income qualify you for significantly better rates than your current loans.
Earnest
Earnest Loans are made by Earnest Operations LLC. Earnest Operations LLC, NMLS #1204917. 300 Frank H. Ogawa Plaza, Suite 340, Oakland 94612. California Financing Law License 6054788. Visit www.earnest.com/licenses for a full list of licensed states. For California residents: Loans will be arranged or made pursuant to a California Financing Law License.
Earnest loans are serviced by Earnest Operations LLC with support from Higher Education Loan Authority of the State of Missouri (MOHELA) (NMLS# 1442770). Earnest LLC and its subsidiaries, including Earnest Operations LLC, are not sponsored by agencies of the United States of America.
These examples provide estimates based on payments beginning immediately upon loan disbursement. Variable annual percentage rate (“APR”): A $10,000 loan with a 20-year term (240 monthly payments of $101.46) and a 10.74% APR would result in a total estimated payment amount of $24,350.40. For a variable loan, after your starting rate is set, your rate will then vary with the market. Fixed APR: A $10,000 loan with a 20-year term (240 monthly payments of $101.46) and a 10.74% APR would result in a total estimated payment amount of $24,350.40. Your actual repayment terms may vary.
Actual rate will vary based on your financial profile. Fixed annual percentage rates (APR) range from 4.15% APR to 10.24% APR (3.90% – 9.99% with .25% auto pay discount). Variable annual percentage rates (APR) range from 6.13% APR to 10.24% APR (5.88% – 9.99% with .25% auto pay discount). Earnest variable interest rate student loan refinance loans are based on a publicly available index, the 30-day Average Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The variable rate is based on the rate published on the 25th day, or the next business day, of the preceding calendar month, rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percent. The rate will not increase more than once a month, but there is no limit on the amount that the rate could increase at one time. Please note, we are not able to offer variable rate loans in AK, IL, MN, MS, NH, OH, TN, and TX. Our lowest rates are only available for our most credit qualified borrowers and requires selection of our shortest term offered and enrollment in our .25% auto pay discount from a checking or savings account. Enrolling in autopay is not required as a condition for approval.
nmlsconsumeraccess.org
© 2026 Earnest LLC. All rights reserved.
Splash Financial
See disclaimers at: https://www.splashfinancial.com/disclaimers/
Splash Financial, Inc. (NMLS #1630038), licensed by the DFPI under California Financing Law, license # 60DBO-102545
Terms and Conditions apply. Splash reserves the right to modify or discontinue products and benefits at any time without notice. Products may not be available in all states. Rates and terms are subject to change at any point prior to application submission. The information you provide is an inquiry to determine whether Splash’s lending partners can make you a loan offer. To qualify, a borrower must be a U.S. citizen or other eligible status and meet lender underwriting requirements. Lowest rates are reserved for the highest qualified borrowers and may require an autopay discount of 0.25%. Splash does not guarantee that you will receive any loan offers or that your loan application will be approved. If approved, your actual rate will be within a range of rates and will depend on a variety of factors, including term of loan, creditworthiness, income and other factors. This information is current as of January 8, 2026. You should review the benefits of your federal student loan; it may offer specific benefits that a private refinance/consolidation loan may not offer. If you work in the public sector, are in the military or taking advantage of a federal department of relief program, such as income-based repayment or public service forgiveness, you may not want to refinance, as these benefits do not transfer to private refinance/consolidation loans.
Autopay Discount. Rates listed include a 0.25% autopay discount.
Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is the cost of credit calculating the interest rate, loan amount, repayment term and the timing of payments. Fixed APR options range from 4.96% (with autopay) to 11.24% (without autopay). Variable APR options range from 4.99% (with autopay) to 11.14% (without autopay). Variable rates are derived by adding a margin to the 30-day average SOFR index, published two business days preceding such calendar month, rounded up to the nearest one hundredth of one percent (0.01% or 0.0001).
Payment Disclosure. Fixed loans feature repayment terms of 5 to 20 years. For example, the monthly payment for a sample $10,000 with an APR of 5.47% for a 12-year term would be $94.86. Variable loans feature repayment terms of 5 to 25 years. For example, the monthly payment for a sample $10,000 with an APR of 5.90% for a 15-year term would be $83.85.
Bonus Disclosure. Terms and conditions apply. Offer is subject to lender approval. To receive the offer, you must: (1) be refinancing over either $50,000, $100,000 or $200,000 in student loans depending on the channel partner that is providing the bonus offer (2) register and/or apply through the referral link you were given; (3) complete a loan application with Splash Financial; (4) have and provide a valid US address to receive bonus; (5) and meet Splash Financial’s underwriting criteria. Once conditions are met and the loan has been disbursed, you will receive your welcome bonus via a check to your submitted address within 90-120 calendar days. Bonuses that are not redeemed within 180 calendar days of the date they were made available to the recipient may be subject to forfeit. Bonus amounts of $600 or greater in a single calendar year may be reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as miscellaneous income to the recipient on Form 1099-MISC in the year received as required by applicable law. Recipient is responsible for any applicable federal, state or local taxes associated with receiving the bonus offer; consult your tax advisor to determine applicable tax consequences. Splash reserves the right to change or terminate the offer at any time with or without notice. Bonus Offer is for new customers only.
Editor: Colin Graves
Reviewed by: Richelle Hawley
The post Best Student Loan Refinance Rates for June 25, 2026: Credible Leads At 3.59% appeared first on The College Investor.
Ford Made This 1 Miscalculation on AI—and Then Had to Hire More Humans to Fix It
After topping a prestigious ranking, Ford got candid about fixing AI-related mistakes.
Market Cap Game Show: The King-Sharon Rule Debuts
In this episode of Motley Fool Rule Breaker Investing, Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner hosts the 42nd installment of the Market Cap Game Show. And for the first time, players can invoke the King-Sharon Rule, which adds an extra layer of strategy, risk, and reward to the game. Motley Fool analyst Jason Moser and Motley Fool staff member Charly Travers go head-to-head in this edition.
To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool’s free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you’re ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.
A full transcript is below.
This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2026.
David Gardner: Price per share of a stock tells you almost nothing. It’s one number, but how many shares exist? In math, you multiply two factors, price times shares outstanding. Without the second, you can’t do meaningful math or understand much of the market. Fools with a capital F know that price times shares equals market capitalization, a company’s actual price tag. To make that lesson stick, we invented a game. On Aug. 9, 2017, the Market Cap Game Show was born, and we’ve played it every quarter since. You’re playing too, against my guest stars. Against your spouse, your kids. Can you outscore my talented contestants? It’s that time again: 10 new stocks. Three guest stars, longtime Motley Fool advisors and investors Charly Travers and Jason Moser and you. Only on this week’s Rule Breaker Investing.
Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. This is the Market Cap Game Show. Played here in June 2026, 4, who’s counting the 42nd time. Joining me this week are Charly Travers and Jason Moser, two longtime Motley Fool advisors, stock pickers, fellow Fools. Charly and Jason will be competing for a seat in our March Market Cap Madness Final Four. Joining in to compete against returning world champion Emily Flippen come next March. Of course, the third player, and to us, the most important, is you. That’s right, you are, dear fellow Foolish listeners. Just a quick reminder to you, as we play along, the market cap is a simple way to measure the value of stocks of public companies. You simply multiply today’s share price by that number of shares outstanding, and that gives you the market cap. These days, market caps range from $4 trillion at the high-end companies like Nvidia and Apple, right down to, well, it can be quite a low number in some cases, and no spoilers, we might have some of those today as my producer Bart begins to crank up our signature Market Cap Game Show music.
Let me just remind, especially new listeners, new players, how our game works. I’ll be mentioning a stock. Neither Charly nor Jason knows what stock is coming. I’ll turn to one of them and ask that Fool to state a numerical range within which the market cap falls is best estimate. The other contestant and you playing at home will simply say, I agree, meaning it’s accurate. The stock’s value falls inside that range, or I disagree. I think it’s outside that stated range. You simply agree or disagree, and if you get it right, give yourself a plus one. That’s the Market Cap Game Show. We’re focused on the real market caps of real stocks. Nobody knows the next stock that’s coming. A perfect score would be 10. Except. Gentlemen, first of all, Charly, Jason, welcome.
Charly Travers: Thank you, David.
Jason Moser: Thanks so much.
David Gardner: Except we have a new rule. Just a few months ago on the mailbag of this show, we added a rule that I intend to be a permanent addition to the Market Cap Game Show, which itself has evolved many times now over almost 10 years. We’re calling this our brand spankin’ new King-Sharon rule. That’s because Russ King and Walter Sharon, separately. I don’t think these gentlemen know each other. Both wrote into the podcast and said, “This would make it a better game.”
Here is our King-Sharon rule. Players at home, you’re playing along with this, as well. Listen up. If you say outside the range, and you want to further contend that it’s outside because it’s higher or it’s outside because it’s lower, you may now take that extra risk. What you do is you say, I think it’s outside that range, and I’m going to say it’s higher. What you’re doing is you’re betting an extra half point on that risky assertion. You don’t have to do it. You could just sit there and say, hey, it’s outside that range. And if you’re right, you get a point. But if you are confident, you think it’s well higher or well lower, then by stating that, we will give you an extra half point when you’re right and players at home, that is true of you too. It’s the King-Sharon rule debuting on this June 2026 Market Cap Game Show. If you disagree, you can simply say outside the range or if you’re feeling confident, call higher or lower for a chance at an extra half point. Jason, you’ve played this game once before. We did not do this a year ago this very month when you last played. Are you excited about the King-Sharon rule?
Jason Moser: I love it. I love to be able to take a little extra risk when you want to if you know what you’re talking about that it gives you a chance to take advantage. No, maybe there’s a little gamesmanship there, too.
David Gardner: I think it does change the game in subtle ways. We’ll leave that to our listeners and players at home to discover. Charly, this is your first Market Cap Game Show. Obviously, this is a rite of passage for you. A major bucket list item, I’m sure. Describe your emotions at this moment.
Charly Travers: David, I love a good game show, and I’m excited to get going here.
David Gardner: Excellent. In that case, without further ado, let’s get started. Originally from South Carolina, Jason Moser got his BA in economics from Wofford College. He lives in Fairfax Station, Virginia, with his wife and two college student daughters. As a senior analyst, Jason’s been with Motley Fool since 2010, serving on the investing team, working to make our Fools around the world smarter, happier, and richer. Welcome, Jason.
Jason Moser: David, thanks again for having me. It’s a real pleasure to be here.
David Gardner: Let’s proceed to stock number one. Jason, it’s six o’clock at night. You’ve had a long day. You open the refrigerator. What are the odds you’re actually cooking dinner?
Jason Moser: David, I’m knocking a lot to you. I am the cook of the family, and I cook more than we go out. I cook a lot, so odds are pretty high that I am going to be cooking.
David Gardner: That is so admirable. I cannot give the same answer. I wish I would be a better version of myself.
Jason Moser: It’s a lot easier now that we’re remote. I’m working at home all day every day so I can juggle my schedule a little bit easier before.
David Gardner: Somewhere along the way what’s for dinner for many of us who are not named Jason Moser, stopped being a question about ingredients and maybe started being a question about apps. There’s an app for that Apple’s App store used to remind us over and over in the early days of smartphones. These days, there are a bunch of apps for this particular scenario, and one of them is DoorDash ticker symbol D-A-S-H. DoorDash operates the largest food delivery platform in North America, connecting customers with restaurants, grocery stores, and local businesses through its app. Founded, this still shocks me, it’s pretty big these days. No spoilers. Founded in 2013. This company is not that founded in 2013. The company now handles billions of dollars of orders each year. Jason Moser, we’re not talking about the revenues or the orders or the profits right now. We’re just talking about the market cap. What is your stated market cap range for DoorDash ticker symbol D-A-S-H?
Jason Moser: I must admit it’s not a company that I follow, but I do know it’s a very popular one with a lot of folks.
David Gardner: Do you ever use it yourself? Do you have it on your phone?
Jason Moser: I have it on my phone, but frankly, no, I don’t ever really use it.
David Gardner: Because you’re cooking. You’re like a good human. Also, you’re eating more economically, because there are extra costs around this whole delivery economy we live in.
Jason Moser: There are costs that come with that. DoorDash, I know they compete a lot with Uber Eats. I’m going to say DoorDash is between $30 and $45 billion.
David Gardner: 30 billion to 45 billion. Charly, do you have the DoorDash app on your smartphone?
Charly Travers: I do not, David. I know it’s ubiquitous and very well known. But for my dining out, we tend to go out and eat in-person and enjoy the experience. More of that than eating in my household, I’m going to take advantage of your new rule here, David.
David Gardner: Let me pause for a second and remind players at home. I feel like Charly’s about to say inside or outside the range. Now, you, too, dear listener, are thinking about whether you’re inside with Jason 30-45 or outside. Charly, why don’t you go ahead and now give your answer?
Charly Travers: I think it’s outside of Jason’s range and not only outside, but I think the market cap is higher than the range.
David Gardner: You’re going with outside higher. This is a historic moment. The first time the King-Sharon rule has been invoked, again, players at home, you might be inside. You might be outside, or you might be going for that half point either direction. The market cap for DoorDash is $73.30 billion. It is outside that range, and it is higher. In fact, I wouldn’t have guessed that high either, Jason, but it’s about double the range that you had in mind. I think part of the reason you may have missed this one is you’re not even participating in this economy. [LAUGHTER] Again, you’re a responsible, good dad and husband who cooks for the family.
Jason Moser: I try to convince my kids to just ease up on the Uber Eats and the DoorDash, understanding the prices that come with that. What can you do?
David Gardner: The answer is you can give a point and a half [LAUGHTER] to your opponent when he deserves stepped forward and invoked our exciting new rule. Before we move on to stock No. 2. 2013, guys, these four Stanford University students are just sitting there going, I think this could be big, and $73 billion of market cap, and 13 years later, they were right. Today, you can use it to get groceries, pet supplies, flowers, office supplies. It’s not just that 530 decision anymore. Pretty built-out company. Charly Travers, you are up 1.5 to nothing. Yes, I like half points. I think they’re Foolish. A friend was like, do you really want to score this game in half points? I’m like, yes, that’s Foolish. Capital F, I think.
Charly Travers grew up in St. Louis, Missouri, and currently lives in Alexandria, Virginia, with his wife and son. Charly is an avid traveler who’s counting seven countries in the past year. Highly recommends making the journey to see the fjords in Norway. Charly got his BA in psychology from Illinois Wesleyan University and his MS in pharmacological and physiological sciences from, yes, the Billikens of St. Louis University. He’s been with Motley Fool since 2005 and a portfolio manager with an affiliated company, Motley Fool Asset Management since 2014. Charly, great to have you joining in this week for your Market Cap Game Show debut.
Charly Travers: Thank you, David.
David Gardner: Charly, you visited seven countries in the last year. When you travel somewhere new, how important is it to you the local food experience?
Charly Travers: It’s incredibly important. That’s a lot of the reason why I go, David. I like to explore cities on foot. I’ll give an example when I was in a small city on the West Coast of Norway called Bergen, they had a little pop-up tent in the town square, maybe 50 different vendors selling food. I had some of the best pad thai I’ve had in my life on [LAUGHTER] the West Coast of Norway. It was this older woman with this giant wok, and I could tell when she tasted her food and then reseasoned it, tasted again, and then waved me over. I was like, I’m in for a treat here.
David Gardner: Hot Tip. Also, I have been to Bergen. It’s beautiful. Visually, like, the colors popping off each of the houses very alluring and the food, as well. One of the things I like about travel is sounds like you, too, Charly. Every place seems to have its own culinary personality, different ingredients, different traditions, different ways of serving food. I love the now come over wave of the finger moment. Yet, somehow behind all those unique dining experiences, there are enormous logistics networks, making sure that restaurants actually have what they need, even food trucks or sometimes food stalls when they need it.
Stock No. 2 is Sysco Corporation ticker symbol S-Y-Y. Sysco is the largest food service distributor in North America, supplying restaurants, hospitals, schools, hotels, other institutions with food, and kitchen supplies, too. Founded in 1969, the company delivers millions of products each year through a vast logistics network. Charly Travers, what is your stated market cap range for Sysco corporation, and that’s the one that’s spelled S-Y-S-C-O and the ticker symbol is S-Y-Y.
Charly Travers: Wow. This one’s challenging. I know they’re ubiquitous. You see their trucks driving around town all the time.
David Gardner: It’s because everyone’s using them, right?
Charly Travers: Yes, that’s right. I’m going to give a market cap range. I am going to say 100 billion to 125 billion would be my range for Sysco.
David Gardner: $100 billion to $125 billion, Jason, Charly, seemingly resting on fairly round numbers for this one.
Jason Moser: Sysco has been a tremendous performer and stock advisor through the years. That’s been a wonderful performer. I think that it’s lower. I think so. I’m going to disagree, and I’m going to take my risk, and I’m going to go, I think it’s lower.
David Gardner: Players at home, Jason has just said outside that range, he disagrees. He’s going for the King-Sharon rule with the half-point risk, saying it’s lower.
Jason Moser: Got to take a chance, David.
David Gardner: I like it. Players at home, what are you going to do? You said that. If you said you disagree with the range because it’s lower, give yourself a point and a half because it’s not even really that close. Charl-, I may have overtalked up just how logistically rich and important this company is. $37.92 billion for Sysco Corporation. I guess we can reflect on, hey, it’s only food. It’s not that high margin. I’m just trying to understand why it would be lower than I thought, as well.
Jason Moser: I love the trend that we’ve got going here. DoorDash now, Sysco. I’m getting hungry.
David Gardner: Yes, and you might want to stay there because we may be returning. But what I’ll say right now, guys, is it’s an exciting start. You’ve both invoked the rule. It’s 1.5 to 1.5. This is already a precedent-breaking Market Cap Game Show. I’m excited to get into stock number 3. Jason, this time you’re at somebody else’s house for dinner. The food arrives, you take a bite. Before you even swallowed, you find yourself reaching for something on the table. What is it?
Jason Moser: Samuel Adams, maybe. [LAUGHTER] I don’t know.
David Gardner: That wasn’t the direct intent of the question, but I like it. I was going to say some people reach for salt, some for pepper, some for hot sauce.
Jason Moser: [OVERLAPPING] Oh, I think I see.
David Gardner: [OVERLAPPING] Some for absolutely nothing because they’re too polite. They’re at somebody else’s house. Over time, we develop remarkably strong loyalties to particular flavors and seasoning. Stock number 3 is McCormick and company, ticker symbol, M-K-C. McCormick, of course, a global leader in spices seasonings and flavorings, with a portfolio that includes brands like McCormick, Old Bay, Frank’s Red Hot, and French’s. Founded in 1889, the company sells products in more than 170 countries around the world. Jason, I’m smiling I randomized from our list of hundreds of stocks, and I happen to pick one that you and I have taken a shine to sum over the years. Jason Moser, what is your stated market cap range for McCormick and Company, ticker symbol M-K-C?
Jason Moser: David, this is a stock I’ve owned for a long time, and this company holds a close spot to my heart. I use their products all of the time. Our pantry, our fridge, it’s everywhere. I think it’s an interesting business because obviously they’re going through a big merger here with Unilever‘s food side of the business.
David Gardner: I do not know, let’s say I’m not keeping up.
Jason Moser: It’s going to become a lot bigger. So I guess we’re talking about this pre-merger because that merger hasn’t fully completed yet. But given the challenging times, the stock has been hit pretty hard, which means the market cap has been hit pretty hard. I feel like I want to say the market cap is between $12 and $15 billion.
David Gardner: $12 billion and $15 billion. Now, Charly Travers, Jason revealed that he’s owned the stock for a long time, and he’s following it clearly. I had missed the Unilever news. I hope it all works out for them. That’s a mega merger right there. $12 billion players at home to $15 billion is where Jason put the market cap range. Charly, any initial thoughts?
Charly Travers: I think Jason obviously knows this company. All of us who do this shopping know the McCormick aisle and the store as well, and I’m personally a big Frank’s Red Hot guy.
David Gardner: Nice. I love mustard, so I’m into French’s.
Jason Moser: I mean, the Cholula, too.
Charly Travers: But in this case, I think I’m going to go outside the range, and I think Jason’s low again. I’m going to say outside high.
David Gardner: OK, Charly has said outside the range and is going for the half point, saying it’s high. Player at home, what are you doing? The market cap, as we speak, which by the way, is right around 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Tuesday, June 16, less than 24 hours before this was released to the Internets, because this podcast comes out at noon Eastern every Wednesday, and we’ve done that for 11 years. The Market Cap, as of 3:00 p.m. the day before, right now as we tape, is $12.69 billion, which means Jason gave a tight range of 12-15, and the correct answer was to say the man knows what he’s doing. Agree. Charly? You have disagreed. Therefore, Jason, you and players at Omo agreed, give yourself a plus one. That was a tight range.
Charly Travers: Yes, it was.
Jason Moser: I remember looking at it recently after that deal was announced, Matty Argersinger and I were talking about sort of the implications there and how big the company could get from it. I just for whatever reason, it stuck in my head.
David Gardner: McCormick traces its roots all the way back to 1889. As I mentioned, founder Willoughby McCormick. There’s a good 19th century American name, although where’s that third. It needs to be like Willoughby John McCormick. But anyway, he was selling flavor extracts and fruit syrups door-to-door in what American city? Do you know, Jason?
Jason Moser: I do not.
David Gardner: You will now. This has been a long-term Moser Holding. Baltimore. This is a company still headquartered in Maryland today. It feels appropriate ‘cause the company has spent generations helping people figure out what to put on for dinner. Yeah, you mentioned Cholula. They have a lot of a lot of brands. Frank’s Red Hot, Charly, what do you put Frank’s Red Hot on?
Charly Travers: Chicken wings.
David Gardner: Makes sense.
Jason Moser: That bleep on everything. Quick anecdote. I got to go tour their headquarters in Hunt Valley, probably a year after I started working here. It was 2011, maybe 2012. One of the most surreal experiences I’ve ever, it was like 007 stuff. They had rooms where they were just top secret. You needed clearances to get in there. They weren’t letting those recipes go. Then, the other thing is just on Sunday, I made some unbelievable Maryland crab cakes at home. Of course, plenty of Old Bay. Shout out to McCormick. Thanks, guys.
David Gardner: Definitely, thank you for calling out Old Bay, Maryland Staple. On to stock number 4, Charly. Cars.
Charly Travers: Yes. Cars. The movie or the vehicle?
David Gardner: The vehicle. Say something more. Your life in cars.
Charly Travers: My life in cars. My first car I owned was a Dodge Dakota pickup truck back in the day that I would use to haul my mountain bike out to the trails in Western St. Louis. I love that truck. I think a lot of people look back with fondness on the first car they had. Yeah.
David Gardner: Well said. Do you have a dream car?
Charly Travers: Yes. I do have a dream car. It would be a 1965 Shelby Cobra with blue paint in the white racing stripes.
David Gardner: Wow. You clearly do have a dream car if you can answer that readily and that specific. How practical would it be for you to obtain that car these days?
Charly Travers: If you wanted an original, it would be completely impractical. I think there’s only a handful of them left in the world, very much a high-end collector’s item, but you can get a pretty close replica through a kit car, and those are all over the place on eBay Motors, et cetera.
David Gardner: Well, stock number 4 is not a car company, though, Haggerty. Ticker symbol HGTY is best known for providing insurance for classic and collectible vehicles, like maybe a 1965 Shelby Cobra Blue with white racing stripes. This company is best known for providing insurance for classic and collectible vehicles, though it has expanded as well into auctions, automotive media, and enthusiast services. Company serves a community of collectors and hobbyists, Charly, who often care as much about the story behind a vehicle as the vehicle itself. You heard of this one?
Charly Travers: I’ve not heard of Haggerty, but I love the niche and the mission here. Yeah.
David Gardner: Charly Travers, what is your stated market cap range for Haggerty, ticker symbol HGTY?
Charly Travers: This sounds like the kind of company that has a small, but profitable little niche. In my mind, I’m not envisioning they’re out there competing with the all states and state farms of the world. They’re going to be not as big, maybe a little more, I don’t know, seems like a family type business to me, but probably not at this point if it’s public. I’m going to go small here. I’m going to give you, Jason, a market cap range to play with of between 1.5 and $2.5 billion.
David Gardner: 1.5 to $2.5 billion. Charly used the phrase niche. He seems to know this area. This is an insurance company. Have you heard of Haggerty before, Jason?
Jason Moser: I have, thanks to Buck Hartzell who recommended it in our trend service not all that long ago. I just had heard of it through him. I don’t really know the company other than what we’ve discussed here at the table.
David Gardner: Indeed, that is the only recommendation this rather young company has gotten is from longtime Fool Buck Hartzell in our Trends Service, Haggerty. I hadn’t heard of the company either. Charly said 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion. Jason, players at home, what are you thinking?
Jason Moser: David, I’m gonna go ahead and take a chance here. I’m going to disagree. I think that it’s higher.
David Gardner: You’re disagreeing with the range, and you’re pressing with the extra King-Sharon half point. Is that right?
Jason Moser: That’s correct.
David Gardner: Players at Home, what are you doing? You did that. If you did what Jason did and disagreed and said, It was bigger, give yourself a plus 1.5 because that is indeed the correct answer. Charly, you were not far off at all. This company’s market cap is $3.82 billion. It is a smaller, more of a niche company. Yet, it is outside the range you gave of 1.5 to 2.5 billion. Therefore, Jason, you get a point, and you pressed it with the extra half point. Go ahead and take your four to 1.5 point lead here as we move on to stock number 5. I do just want to mention Haggerty didn’t start with classic cars at all. Frank Haggerty was trying to insure a wooden boat in the 1980s, and he discovered that traditional insurers didn’t really understand how to value or insure collector assets. That insight led him and his wife, Louise, to create Haggerty. Today, the company is synonymous with collector cars, but the original problem they were solving, fun fact, was a boat. Interesting. Let’s move on to stock number 5, Jason.
Jason Moser: Yes, sir.
David Gardner: Airplanes.
Jason Moser: I’ve been flying them all my life, David. As a matter of fact, my father, a physician by trade, recently retired. Happy birthday, Dad. Today’s 16th. He got his pilot’s license back in the day and had a little four-seater Cessna Skyhawk that he flew us to go see our grandparents in Greensboro. Interestingly, he would fly me to the eastern shore of Maryland every year for several years, where we would go goose hunting. Yeah, been in the air for a while.
David Gardner: That is really an amazing answer. For most of us, when we’re kids, we’re just pointing up, going, “How is that thing staying up there?” Yet, it was you in the four-seater Cessna. Your dad, not even a pilot by trade, but certainly by training and passion. Yeah. Well, happy birthday to Mr. Moser. Most of us grow up thinking, Boeing just probably builds the airplanes. Ford, builds the cars. But then one day you realize that a modern jetliners really thousands of highly specialized parts built by dozens of different companies, many of which you’ve probably never heard of.
Stock number 5 is TransDigm Group. Ticker symbol TDG, TransDigm, designs and manufactures highly engineered components that are used in commercial and military aircraft, things like, I don’t know what half of these things are, actuators, ignition systems, pumps. You know pumps. Valves and cockpit controls. I think I can picture that. The company has become famous for acquiring niche aerospace suppliers whose products are often critical to aircraft operation. Turning now back to Jason Moser, who, many a day, in his youth was spent aloft. What is your stated market cap range for TransDigm Group, ticker symbol, Jason, TDG?
Jason Moser: This is a good one. I know of the company, but I just have no real certainty on how big it is. I know that it is a market leader in obviously a mission critical industry. I’m going to go with a range of 65 to $85 billion.
David Gardner: $65 billion to $85 billion. Charly, have you ever been in a plane?
Charly Travers: Many times, David.
Jason Moser: I suspect if you had. But some people haven’t. There’s a fear of flying out there.
Charly Travers: As you’re describing their product lineup, it sounds to me like they make the parts that make the scary noises, like when you take off, and then you’re like, “What is all this commotion under the plane?” It’s just the wheels coming up. I think that sounds like actuators to me.
Jason Moser: Flux capacitors. [LAUGHS]
David Gardner: $65 to 85 billion. Players at home, you’re thinking too, Charly?
Charly Travers: Yeah, I think Jason’s on the money on this one. I think it’s in the range.
David Gardner: You’re going to go inside the range. Players at home, what are you doing? If you said inside the range, give yourself a plus one because Jason gave a good range. Charly, you get the point, my friend. The score is 4-2.5 through the first half of this game. One thing that makes TransDigm unusual is its obsession with what it calls proprietary aerospace content. This company is not trying to build airplanes. It’s trying to own the tiny components inside airplanes that are difficult to replace, that are in some cases, highly regulated, and often protected by sole source positions, like TransDigm’s the only one making this thing, people.
That’s part of why investors have admired this business for so long. It’s been a monster winner. Happy to say it’s been on our stock advisor Scorecard since we picked it in July of 2012. It’s gone from $56 a share then to $1,277 a share now. The market cap, by the way, $72.55 billion. Did I forget to mention that? Solidly inside Jason’s knowing range. That’s a little bit more about TransDigm Group group. It’s a company that sometimes pays special dividends, interesting, in that regard. Their founder Nick Howley, one of the least famous great CEOs in modern business. He’s been portrayed in books like Lessons from the Titans. I’ve still never read that book, but I’m darn glad I picked TDG for Stock Advisor. I’m happy for Charly that he said inside Jason’s good range because that makes the game more competitive as we hit halftime with the score, Jason 4, Charly 2.5. How you doing at home?
Well, it’s halftime for the Market Cap Game Show, which means our tradition started last year of Tell A Joke. Make us laugh at halftime contestants is nigh. In fact, I’m going to turn first to you, Jason, since you have the lead. This is really cheap halftime entertainment. Some people just use AI to answer these questions these days, Jason. Tell us a joke.
Jason Moser: No, this is AI free. I’m going full-on dad joke. If you want to get specific, it’s golf dad joke. If you get it, cool; if not, I understand. But what’s a golfer’s favorite animal?
David Gardner: Charly, I don’t know. What is a golfer’s favorite animal?
Charly Travers: That’s a good question. I’m not sure, David.
David Gardner: Yeah. We don’t know.
Jason Moser: Well, it’s an albatross, David. But think about it. Par 4 and a par 5 and a par 3. If you make it in that number of shots, you make it in five shots, that’s a par five, you get a par. If you’re one below that, four shots, that’s a birdie. If you’re two below that, minus two, that’s an eagle. But the rare, the coveted, three under is an albatross.
David Gardner: Is that right?
Jason Moser: Now, mathematically, you can’t make that on a par 3 because that means you would make it in zero strokes, which isn’t a thing. Every once in a while, you might see a par 4 that’s drivable. You can make a hole in one on a par 4. But usually, it’s a par 5 where you hit your second shot in the hole, and you make an albatross.
David Gardner: I never have, and I never will. Jason, have you made an albatross?
Jason Moser: I have made a lot of eagles, David, but I have never made an albatross.
David Gardner: That’s amazing. That function is, I guess, a joke, but also a very educational one.
Jason Moser: I’m trying to grow the game.
David Gardner: You bet. Charly, you and I now have something to shoot for. Players at home, we’re not scoring the jokes. You can decide what you thought of that as Charly graces us with his joke.
Charly Travers: I’ll do that. Why did the scarecrow win an award?
David Gardner: Jason, why do you think the Scarecrow won an award? Because he was stable to the chicken?
Jason Moser: I feel like it’s on the tip of my tongue, but I just don’t know.
Charly Travers: Because he was outstanding in his field.
David Gardner: That that was pretty well done.
Jason Moser: See, that’s a better joke than mine. I think people would have given me a bogie for mine. Charly gets the birdie.
David Gardner: Don’t talk yourself down.
Charly Travers: Mine was AI-generated. Well, there’s no points for style. You bring to the table what you can.
David Gardner: I think this is very important. There are no points for style.
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David Gardner: Now let’s move on to the second half of our game show. Again, Jason 4, Charly 2.5, and on to stock number 6,. Charly Travers, over the course of your employment career, what’s the most annoying thing you’ve ever been asked to keep track of at work?
Charly Travers: Oh, gosh, David.
David Gardner: You’ve worked in unregulated circumstances and in regulated circumstances.
Charly Travers: I’m going to say there are days where I feel like I’m the keeper of our TPS reports. Just compliance Word documents that must be retained for seven plus years or whatever the period of time is, and you have to have them. No one’s ever going to look for them. But you have to have them. Yeah.
David Gardner: Thank you. That’s a great example. I would say every workplace, we’re all in different ones. There’s a lot of overlap, but it seems to have its own version of organized chaos. You’ve got tasks, projects, notes, deadlines, meetings, meetings about the meetings, documents, and over time, an entire category of software emerged to help teams stay on the same page. Stock number 6 is Atlassian Corporation, ticker symbol TEAM. Atlassian develops collaboration and workflow software, including Jira, Confluence, and Trello. Tools used by organizations around the world to organize their and manage work. This company founded in Australia. You knew that. In 2002, it’s become a highly influential software provider in the modern workplace. Charly Travers, what is your stated market cap range for Atlassian corporation, ticker symbol T-E-A-M?
Charly Travers: Wow, David, I think, tech company market caps are challenging these days. It’s been a volatile year in both directions. So Atlassian, I know, a successful company, a lot of companies use their products. As you mentioned, I think for this company, I’m going to give Jason a market cap range and the listeners out there as well, 25 billion to $35 billion.
David Gardner: Twenty five billion to $35 billion a robust but not world-beating market cap for a software provider. Jason, have you ever used Trello, or Jira, or Confluence, or do you use online? Do you use computers? [LAUGHTER]
Jason Moser: We do use some of that stuff here at work, actually.
David Gardner: I’m glad to know that.
Jason Moser: It’s nice to know that The Motley Fool is a customer of Atlassian, and we’ve talked a lot about it before. Company that I know of, I don’t know a lot about. I haven’t dug into it, but Charly’s right. Software, companies, tech companies, it’s hit or miss these days. You either are just taking advantage of AI and going to the moon or AI is killing your business. You said 15-25 billion?
Charly Travers: 25-35.
Jason Moser: 25-35?
David Gardner: Yes, let’s be very clear. As your game show host, I will officially repeat that. So everyone knows it is 25 billion to 35 billion.
Jason Moser: So yeah, I’m going to go with my gut here and disagree, and I think that it’s lower.
David Gardner: So you’re going to disagree. Outside the range. And you’re going to press it with lower.
Jason Moser: Yeah.
David Gardner: All right. And players at home, what about you? And Jason got it right. It’s 22.09 billion. Not that far below Charly’s pretty darn good range. And yet, it was outside the range. And it was lower. Jason Moser, we’re giving you another 1.5 points up to 5.5. Were you standing up there at the tee going, I’m going to lick this ball. You just watched this thing go, or was it eyes closed?
Jason Moser: This guy’s making books in Vegas. That was such a good range. I was like, My word, it could be either way. But I knew it was going to be close.
David Gardner: You didn’t have to press it, though. That was kind of gutsy.
Charly Travers: Yeah, I’m impressed.
David Gardner: No one has yet pressed it and missed. We haven’t had that King-Sharon moment where someone only gets a half point because they said outside but go the wrong direction. Impressive.
Jason Moser: Gotta love the press.
David Gardner: Atlassian was an unusual company from the beginning, because most enterprise software companies build large sales organizations and send their armies of salespeople out to persuade businesses to buy our software. But Atlassian took a very different approach. Basically, the founders said, “Hey, let’s just give our products out to software developers and engineers, the techies out there, and let’s see them use them and then start to share them internally as tools that teams might start to pick up, and gradually, their products have spread throughout whole organization. So it sounds commonplace today, by the way, but 20 years ago, that was a pretty radical way to build a software company, and somehow it worked. It has been a stock under fire, though. Regret to say it’s down 60% from where it was last year. So this is still a long term winner for Motley Fool Rule Breakers, picked by many other services, too, at the Fool. But Jason, under some stress these days.
Jason Moser: It’s difficult. I tend to believe that most of these companies that the market is eschewing today are actually going to be beneficiaries of AI. I think we’re just not seeing exactly clearly the path there, but I think they’re companies that they’re going to benefit from AI technology. They’re going to make their businesses better. There will be some that get disrupted. But I think for the most part, these leaders of these companies, they’re not dummies, they know what they’re doing. You’re not leaving this technology on the table. I think the market eventually will come back around.
David Gardner: We’ll all be watching. And in many cases, we’ll be invested, as well. Charly, frustrating to have had a pretty good range and then not get the point, and then watch Jason walk away with an extra half point. You made a pretty good call there.
Charly Travers: Yeah, but I’m playing Steph Curry here. [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: Jason, 5.5, Charly 2.5. How are you doing at home? On to Stock Number 7. Jason, I know you’re a sportsman. Are you a winter skier?
Jason Moser: I was growing up, David, actually. Father — Mom, and Dad took our family out to Park City, Utah, for my very first skiing.
David Gardner: That is a gorgeous place. You’re spoiled for the rest of your life.
Jason Moser: I know. And that was I think, 13-years-old at the time. And then we made subsequent trips out to Colorado, Copper Mountain, all that stuff. As I’ve gotten older, I don’t ski very much. When I was courting my wife, I discovered she wasn’t really very fond of skiing, so then that just took care that.
David Gardner: That would make sense.
Jason Moser: I haven’t done a lot of skiing lately, but I really enjoyed it when I did it growing up.
David Gardner: It doesn’t have to be a good memory or actually, maybe a bad one would be even better, Jason, have you ever had an especially memorable ski lift ride?
Jason Moser: Probably the first one where I wasn’t really familiar with getting off of the ski lift and promptly was pushed off by the cheer. [LAUGHTER] And then I learned.
David Gardner: I think a lot of us can relate to that cause before you get skiing or snowboarding, before those mountain views, hot chocolate in the lodge, there’s usually a ski lift involved, and once you’re hanging a few stories above the ground with strangers for 10 minutes, interesting things could happen. In that first moment where you’re like, How do I get off this thing would be something many people experience. Stock Number 7 is Vail Resorts. Ticker symbol MTN and Vail owns and operates some of the most famous mountain resorts in North America and abroad, including Vail, Breckenridge, Park City, and Whistler Blackcomb. It’s epic pass helped transform the ski industry by allowing skiers and snowboarders to access multiple mountains through a single season pass, and I’m about to ask Jason what you … but wait!
Sound Effect: Throwdown!
David Gardner: This is a throwdown. So, that’s right. It is throwdown time, pencils out, Fools. Jason, and Charly will now write down their best market cap range for Vail Resorts Ticker symbol MTN. And once they share their ranges, players at home, your job is just to pick the contestant you think made the better guess. You simply say “Jason” or “Charly.” And if you’re right, score a point. And as they think of their guesses, a bit more on how this works. If only one of these guys gets the market cap range right, of course, that correct guess will win the point. But what if both of them are right? Then the contestant with the tighter range will take the point. And if they’re both wrong, supposing that should ever happen, then if they both miss, we measure proximity. Whosever nearest parameter is closest to the true market cap will win the point. But again, players at home, all you have to do is say, Jason, or Charly, let me now turn back to you, Jason. It looks like your pencil is down. What is your market cap range for Vail Resorts?
Jason Moser: I know this is a company that has been going through some tough times recently, a unique set of assets, but obviously a difficult time for its market.
David Gardner: AI, it’s harming all these companies. [LAUGHTER] Software, ski resorts.
Jason Moser: As we get older we don’t take as much risk, right, like pressing in the market cap game.
David Gardner: So have do you got then on that post-it note?
Jason Moser: Going with a range of eight to $12 billion.
David Gardner: $8 billion to $12 billion is what Jason wrote down. Charly, what have you written down for Vail?
Charly Travers: Interestingly, I’m in the ballpark as Jason, but a little bit lower. I wrote down a range of 4 billion to $6 billion.
David Gardner: 4 billion to 6 billion. So, players at home, it’s very simple. If you like Jason’s 8-12, then you say Jason. If you prefer Charly’s 4-6, you say Charly, 3, 2, 1, say it. And if you said Charly, give yourself a plus one. The market cap for Ticker symbol MTN, as we speak, is $4.84 billion, right inside Charly Travers’ range. Charly, I didn’t ask you. Are you a skier?
Charly Travers: I’m a winter sports guy, but I’m more of a hockey player, ice skater than a skier.
David Gardner: Fantastic. Have you ever owned Ticker Civil MTN Vail Resorts? Is this in the Travers folio?
Charly Travers: No, it’s not. I’m aware of the company. I like their assets, as Jason mentioned, but I’ve never owned this one.
David Gardner: One of the most consequential innovations in modern skiing wasn’t a ski, a snowboard, or even a lift. It was that season pass that I mentioned earlier. They call it their epic pass introduced in 2008. History will show dramatically changed the economics of this industry. Because it encouraged skiers to commit before the season even begins. And so that model has proved so successful that competitors eventually responded with passes of their own. It’s also been true, and this is a stock that I recommended back in the day, and like Atlassian, I regret to say, it started really strong, but it is lagged since COVID. In fact, I picked it at $46 a share in May of 2013, so it’s tripled today, but the S&P 500 over those same 13 years is up five times in value. So it’s ultimately, as of now, anyway, been an underperformer. They also started to monetize summers. And so for some of these ski resort companies that could create a summer adventure, kind of a second, revenue line. That’s something that I found very attractive when I recommend the stock a dozen years ago or so, and I still think that’s a great business model. Also, they’re not making any new mountains anytime soon. So I continue to like this company. It’s disappointing, though to see how much it’s underperformed in recent years. Stock Number 8, Charly Travers, you live here in lovely Alexandria, Virginia.
Charly Travers: I do.
David Gardner: For how long?
Charly Travers: Just over 20 years, David.
David Gardner: In a house?
Charly Travers: Yes.
David Gardner: What’s the most unexpected thing that you’ve learned about houses since becoming a home owner?
Charly Travers: That your windows can leak water on the inside from no apparent source of water. And I’ll tell you, the rabbit he is not cheap. [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: I have seen this in my own life, as well. This is part of my lived experience. Charly, thank you. When we were younger guys, houses seem simple, four walls, a roof, some windows. Then one day you own one, and suddenly you’re learning about insulation, roofing, ventilation, moisture barriers, attic temperatures and leaky windows. A whole world of things you never knew existed. Stock Number 8 is Owens Corning. Ticker symbol OC, Owens Corning manufacturer building materials like roofing, shingles and insulation and fiberglass composites used in homes and commercial buildings, of course, industrial applications, as well. The company has become one of the most recognizable names in residential construction and renovation. Charly Travers, what is your stated market cap range for Owens Corning ticker symbol OC. Like the OC.
Charly Travers: Like the OC. Good one, David. Wow, I find this to be a tough one here. I’m going to give a market cap range for Owens Corning 50-$65 billion.
David Gardner: Fifty and $65 billion. Jason, I’ve already detected that you yourself are a homeowner.
Jason Moser: I am, yeah. I’ve been a homeowner since 2005 and have been there and done that. [LAUGHTER] Charly, I’m feeling you. Geez, yeah. Owens Corning, man. That’s the Pink Panther installation commercials. Sorts of stuff.
David Gardner: We can talk about that after we’ve answered the question. But yeah, we’ll talk about that.
Jason Moser: So I obviously know the company, but I know it more as a consumer. I don’t cover the business. I don’t really follow it. As an analyst I want to dive into to. Matty Argersinger remember, I think, actually he recommended this in the dividend service at one point. I feel like I’m going to have to go with my gut again in here. I think that Charly’s range is just a little bit high. So I’m going to disagree and say it’s lower.
David Gardner: So you’re disagreeing. You’re saying outside the range, and you’re pressing with the extra half points, saying it’s lower?
Jason Moser: Yeah.
David Gardner: Alright, 50-$65 billion. What about you player at home? You said that. And I’d say Jason pretty much killed this one once again. It is surprisingly smaller than I would have thought. The market cap of Owens Corning is $10.33 billion. And that is well below Charly’s range of 50-65 billion. Therefore, Jason, you saying you disagree with the range, and it was lower, gets you another half point, giving you a commanding lead of 7-3.5.
Charly Travers: I can tell you, my range would have still been way off, too, because I didn’t think it was that small.
David Gardner: And yeah, if you’re picturing pink installation right now [LAUGHTER] as Jason mentioned, that’s not an accident. Owens Corning introduced its famous Pink Panther marketing campaign in the 1980s. Company eventually secured exclusive rights to use the character in its advertising. It’s one of the more successful examples of a building materials company creating a recognizable consumer brand. There is power in that panther. And as Jason mentioned, yes, a few Motley Fool services have been favoring this one in particular because of its dividend. It pays a dividend yield of 2.4%, which is effectively the interest rate you’re getting paid for owning the stock over the next year if the stock just stays where it is 2.4%. Not a bad dividend yield for a long-time, longstanding company that’s much smaller than I think any of us would have thought. Jason, you said lower, but you weren’t thinking 10, were you?
Jason Moser: No, I wasn’t again, kind of back to trans Dime. It’s like, this is mission critical stuff. Housing is the linchpin of our economy when you think about it. And even when it goes through challenges, The fact is we’ve got this huge housing market. A lot of these homes are 40 years and older. It requires a lot of upkeep and a lot of what a lot of what Owens Corning does. So I guess maybe it’s just one of those lower margin businesses the market is just not giving enough credit to today because of all the focus on AI and whatnot.
David Gardner: That maybe. So you’re also accusing AI of hurting Owens Corning.
Charly Travers: We’re blaming AI for everything. [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: Let’s move on to Stock Number 9. Jason, let’s go back to cars. There have emerging themes randomly generated by this game show, and I would say food early on was one of them, but cars keep coming back. So a funny thing about automobiles is that most of us spend years driving them while understanding almost nothing about what actually makes them go. This reminds me of our airplane conversation a little earlier. But one day, somebody tells you your alternator is shot or the control arm needs replacing. And suddenly, you’re learning a whole new vocabulary. In fact, guys, I’m going to put you on the same team for this one. We’re going to do a quick quiz. I’m going to give you three automotive terms and see whether you as a collective team can come up and give us an answer. Let’s start with alternator. Charly, Jason, can you explain in a sentence or so what an alternator does?
Jason Moser: I believe the alternator is something that helps generate power for the car to keep the battery going.
Charly Travers: I’m going to take you a step farther and say alternator converts the direct current from the battery into an alternating current.
David Gardner: Indeed, while the engine runs, it keeps that battery charge. Guys, I sound like I know it ’cause I get to be Alex Trebek and read off, [LAUGHTER] but I couldn’t have done that without your help. So I didn’t really know what an alternator was, but both of you did. How about a catalytic converter?
Jason Moser: That is something that’s a little bit beyond my scope of understanding.
Charly Travers: I’ve got this one. The catalytic converter is part of your exhaust system. It sits between the engine and the muffler, and it takes [LAUGHTER] pollutants out of the air. A lot, I think it even has, like, platinum inside. I’ll keep going. It’s commonly stolen by thieves for the metals that are contained within it.
Jason Moser: I have heard that.
David Gardner: You’re exactly right, Charly. I had a little definition because I looked up earlier. You did it better. I’m not even going to read my definition because you just explained it better with context than what I had. Clearly, obviously, the guy who is still Jones and for the 1965 Shelby Cobra that’s blue, with white racing stripes, you know your cars, Charly.
Charly Travers: I’m going to tell you all the secret here. My first summer job between high school and college was delivering car parts from a warehouse to, like, all the mechanics around the area. They are calling a brake job, muffler job, whatever, they’d call us I need these parts, and I would drive it to them.
David Gardner: I almost want to launch right into the stock now, and you’ll see why. But I have one more, so I’m pretty sure Charly’s going to get this. I wouldn’t have got this, Jason?
Jason Moser: I was going to say, if you could say brakes or something, that would be cool. [LAUGHTER] Otherwise, just look in Charly’s direction.
David Gardner: The last one I have here is the differential.
Charly Travers: I think that’s what gives power in different quantities to the different tires. They’re not all spinning at the same speed all the time. Maybe even a My Cousin Vinny shout-out here with Marisa Tomei explaining the differential.
David Gardner: This is so impressive. We need a new game show on this show that rewards just sheer flat out knowledge. In this case, automotive knowledge, very well done, Charly. I couldn’t have done that. But it basically allows wheels on the same axle to rotate at different speeds when turning, which when you think about it is necessary. You can’t have wheels all going at the exact same rotational speed. When you’re turning. Charly, that was impressive. Well, stock number 9 is Genuine Parts Company. ticker symbol GPC Genuine Parts, best known as the parent company of NAPA Auto Parts, supplying replacement parts and industrial products through thousands of locations across North America and beyond, Charly. Did you work for?
Charly Travers: There would have been a competitor.
David Gardner: Got it. This company, by the way, founded in 1928. I always love corporate histories and hearing who started it when, and it spent nearly a century just helping keep vehicles and equipment running. It’s basically been doing this all the way through over the last almost 100 years. Turning back now to my original contestant. I’m asking this question of Jason Moser. Jason, what is your stated market cap range for genuine parts company ticker symbol, GPC.
Jason Moser: I’m going to say 10-$15 billion.
David Gardner: $10 billion to $15 billion. Now, a glance at the scorecard suggests it almost doesn’t matter what you do here, Jason, because I think you’re up 7-3.5, which means, technically, I don’t think Charly can win this one, and yet there’s pride. There’s what you did right at the end, which is what people tend to remember. They don’t really remember, like, how things started or there might be a peak moment in the middle, but how you finish, as I’ve always pointed out on the show is so important. In some ways, Jason, you don’t care, but in other ways, you do care. I always care.
Jason Moser: You want to finish strong. [OVERLAPPING]
David Gardner: You are always strong.
Jason Moser: Whether it’s stocks, the market cap game. I want to keep it going till the end.
David Gardner: Some of us are cheering for you.
Jason Moser: Some, not all.
David Gardner: Ten to 15, did you say?
Jason Moser: Yes, 10-$15 billion.
David Gardner: Ten to $15 billion. Charly, I feel like we’re talking to a guy who knows this industry. I don’t know if you follow market caps. Is this a stock you’ve research, maybe own?
Charly Travers: I have passing familiarity with it. Jason’s range is very close to what I was thinking in my head. I think it’s going to be within Jason’s range.
David Gardner: Players at home. Charly has just said he agrees inside Jason’s stated range. What do you say? If you said inside Jason’s range, give yourself a plus one. Excellent work by Jason Moser, and yet the point goes to Charly, [LAUGHTER] who recognized that a $14.81 billion market cap would be inside.
Jason Moser: That is a close one.
David Gardner: Ten to 15, and so, Charly, you get another point 4.5 for you, sir. Well done. You were competing against NAPA?
Charly Travers: Yeah.
David Gardner: That can’t be.
Charly Travers: It turned out not well. NAPA is still here. [LAUGHTER].
Jason Moser: You’re still here, too. [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: I think a lot of us know the NAPA brand, but we may not realize how large the operation is. It’s not just automotive repair shops, although that, too, but industrial customers, supplying replacement parts, bearings, hoses, lots of other things I can’t define as an English major, not an engineer or a car guy. But they’re out there factories, warehouses, businesses, helping them all keep operating. It’s one of those hidden companies that quietly supports I might say a surprising amount of economic activity. Just looking at the last two market caps, 14.81 for genuine parts. Owen’s Corning 10.33 billion. These are both companies that have been around for, like, 100 years, and a lot of us know the brands, even if I have a hard time explaining what they’re doing. But it’s on the one hand, fun to remember we can be part owners through the stock market. On the other hand, I’m not sure you’ve been compounding massive gains over the last 30 years if you’re owning GPC or OC. But what do you guys make of commies like this?
Jason Moser: It’s tricky. You see the merit in wanting to own businesses like these that are the backbone of everything that we do on a daily basis, and yet, the market is a fickle beast. The market ever forward looking and loves the bright shiny new toy, and obviously, technology has just changed the name of the game for everyone. A lot of these companies get left behind. But I think, you know, on the flip side, when things get tough, these are businesses that I think have proven to be very resilient and can be rewarding to hold onto when tougher market conditions persist.
David Gardner: Charly, this is obviously an industry of some passion for you. Do you have any automotive stocks in your portfolio? Is this something that you invest in or not?
Charly Travers: They tend to be a little too sleepy for me, to be honest.
David Gardner: It’s going to be interesting to see how this one ends as we move on to stock number 10. I mentioned certain themes randomly emerged this particular week, and here we go again, Charly, when a company picks a ticker symbol, that doesn’t just spell out its name or maybe an acronym referring to the company. But instead, the marketing or investor relations department realizes they can reserve a cute word that pertains to the company’s business. As a longtime investor, does this positively endear you to that company in any way or possibly do the opposite?
Charly Travers: I like anything that brings a smile to my day. [LAUGHTER] If it’s done well, I applaud it.
David Gardner: Nice. Can you think of a few examples of companies that have a ticker symbol that just make you smile?
Charly Travers: I’m not sure if they’re public anymore, but back in the day, there was a company with a ticker WOOF.
Jason Moser: VMC. VMC, I think, got taken private by Banfield, I believe.
Charly Travers: I think so [OVERLAPPING].
Jason Moser: They are owned by [inaudible]
David Gardner: Remind me what the company is?
Charly Travers: I think it was VCA Antech.
Jason Moser: VCA Antech.
David Gardner: Yes
Charly Travers: Yeah. They were a veterinarian.
David Gardner: There we go. WOOF. How about some others? Jason, Charly, throw me some fun tickers.
Jason Moser: I don’t think this one’s still public now, but there was Natus Medical back in the day. Focused on geared towards infants, and the ticker was BABY.
Charly Travers: BABY
David Gardner: There you go.
Jason Moser: That always made me smile.
David Gardner: I just said FUN. Earlier, FUN was a ticker symbol. Cedar Fair historically had the ticker symbol Fun. Of course, Southwest Airlines.
Charly Travers: LUV
David Gardner: L-U-V. How about L-O-V-E? Do you know who has that?
Charly Travers: I don’t.
David Gardner: Lovesac. Have you ever seen modular furniture? [OVERLAPPING]
Charly Travers: Company owns Love?
David Gardner: Yeah, there’s a well-worn path of companies that want to have a little bit of fun, maybe make Charly smile on a given day. With their ticker symbol. We’ve talked a lot about cars, this particular market cap game show. We’re going to do it again. Charly, do you happen to know which company owns the Ticker symbol, R-A-C-E?
Jason Moser: I do.
Charly Travers: Is that Indianapolis Speedway?
Jason Moser: I believe it’s Ferrari.
Charly Travers: Ferrari.
David Gardner: Yeah, that’s not the actual Market Cap Game Show quiz. Although that is good knowledge that Jason just brought. It is indeed Ferrari NV’s ticker symbol, R-A-C-E. Ferrari, of course, designs and manufactures some of the world’s most recognizable luxury sports cars and competes at the highest levels these days of motorsport through Formula 1. The company is famous for producing fewer vehicles than demand would allow, which you would think wouldn’t work in business, and yet, it’s built its brand through that exclusivity and prestige. Ferrari NV with the ticker symbol R-A-C-E, and gentlemen. This is a throwdown. Pencils out, Charly and Jason are now going to write down their stated market cap ranges for Ferrari NV ticker symbol R-A-C-E.
Charly Travers: Is this in Euros?
David Gardner: [LAUGHTER] We’re going to go with American dollars.
Jason Moser: American dollars.
David Gardner: Although, as you guys are thinking, I’ll just mention briefly the whole NV thing. Ferrari NV is the corporate name. It reminds us it was spun out of Fiat during a broader restructuring that involved what became Stellantis and other entities, but the Netherlands. That’s what NV is referring to, it’s become a popular jurisdiction for multinational corporations because of its corporate governance, structure, and international business friendliness. That’s why you have Italian in culture, Ferrari, Dutch in legal incorporation, and we’re talking about American dollars for our Market Cap, Charly Travers. You guys both look like you’re ready, Charly turning first to you. This is obviously a passion. This is also the final stock of this Market Cap Game Show, and people tend to remember what happens right at the end, who might win the race. Charly Travers, what is your stated market cap range for Ferrari NV?
Charly Travers: In US dollars, I gave a market cap range of 40-60 billion.
David Gardner: $40 billion to $60 billion. Jason, your pencil is also down just underneath at the post it note on which you scrawled what market cap range for Ferrari?
Jason Moser: I’m glad we’re on the same plane, at least. I’m a little bit higher. I said, 65-$75 billion. Feels like this is a company the market has really taken a shine to lately.
David Gardner: Before I give the actual correct answer and who got the point, I just want to honor both of you guys, because first of all, once again, you were both shooting right near where this market cap is. It just reminds me how excellent are the people that I get to work with what a delight it is to be with two guys here that I’ve spent over ten years with at The Motley Fool. To think that, you know, you’re doing a lot. You’re studying a lot about the market. You’re being asked many things as advisors and analysts at our company or our sister companies. You’re pretty good, that’s impressive. Charly, you had 40 billion to 60 billion. Jason, you had $65 billion to $75 billion. The market cap for Ferrari is $64.81 billion, which means technically it’s in between. [LAUGHTER] Both of you have separate ranges, neither of you got this. But this all comes down to longtime Fool Bill Barker. We’ve named this the Barker Protocol Rule. It is, whoever had their parameter closest to the actual market cap gets the point. Jason, by saying 65 billion on your low end, you were just millions away from $64.81 billion, therefore, we’re going to give you the point here for a hotly contested race around RACE.
Jason Moser: David, it’s like, on the golf course. Someone’s going to give you a two-foot putt, you just take [LAUGHTER]. I’ll take it. Thanks. [LAUGHTER].
David Gardner: Charly, I notice you did not specify a Ferrari as a dream car. If somebody gave you a Ferrari, would you accept it?
Charly Travers: Absolutely. I think they’re absolutely beautiful cars.
David Gardner: They are spectacular, and Enzo Ferrari founded Scuderia Ferrari Ferrari in 1929. This is another company like several others this week that are about to turn 100 this decade, so just a few years away. But his original business was there to support race drivers. It was the company’s road cars that came later in the history of Ferrari. In a very real sense, Ferrari remains a racing company that also happens to sell automobiles, and the development and popularity of Formula 1 is not hurting them at all right now. I’m actually impressed by how large that market cap is because in a lot of ways, the automotive business is a higher cost, lower margin industry, and sometimes I’m surprised by how small some of our big auto brands are. This one is quite the opposite.
Jason Moser: I think you made a very good point there, and they’ve done a good job in they limit the supply of what they produce. They really create demand. Obviously create an awesome product. There’s something to be said.
Charly Travers: I agree with you, Jason. They’ve been excellent stewards of the brand over the years and have resisted the temptation to go down market with maybe more affordable but less prestige vehicles, so hats off to them.
David Gardner: Again, Italian and culture Dutch in legal incorporation, and we quoted that market cap in American, by my accounting, our final score, again, this is the first ever market cap game show, and I think it worked. I enjoyed the extra half point. Turns out, these guys are such aces nobody ever lost a half point for miscalling it. It was used early and often, and it resulted in our highest scoring game we’ve ever had because normally, it’s a zero sum around the number of 10. But in this case, Jason eight. Charly 4.5. I declare this version of the Market Cap Game Show over. I want to thank you both.
But Jason and Charly and I know that we’re not playing this game for each other, we’re playing for you. How did you score? Dear Fool, dear listener at home. We hope that you outscored all of us. The purpose of the Market Cap Game Show is to make more popular. I’m never going to say as popular as Jeopardy, but to make more popular market caps, the real value of stocks on the market that most people don’t understand, except that you do understand you just played along with us for an hour. I hope you scored at least a few points this week. Maybe beat one or both of my competitors. Jason and Charly, you both distinguished yourselves and helped make the world a bit smarter, happier, and richer.
Next week is our June 2026 Mailbag. My email address is [email protected]. You can tweet us out as well on Twitter x at RBI Podcast. Your poems, your stories, your inspirations, your questions all are welcomed. It’s your Rule Breaker Investing Mailbag next week. But before we go, how about a last line from you, Charly Travers?
Charly Travers: I want to thank you for having me on the show, and congratulations to my good friend Jason, for an awesome performance. Sticking with a car theme real quick. I’m a movie buff, and I will recommend Ford versus Ferrari, the movie with Christian Bale and Matt Damon from a few years ago. It’s an awesome watch.
David Gardner: I love that Charly is just constantly creating value wherever he goes, including movie recommendations. I have not seen that. Might have been on a flight that I slept through at one point, but I know it’s a great movie. Thank you, Charly. Jason, a last line from you.
Jason Moser: It’s always a pleasure to get together with Charly and with you, David. I will vouch for that movie recommendation. I would have never thought, but we watched it one night, and it was good.
David Gardner: Nice.
Jason Moser: Two thumbs up, and I think Charly feels the same way. Listen, smarter, happier, richer, all of that stuff. But those first few questions, it got me hungrier too. [LAUGHTER] David, I’m looking forward to firing up the trigger this weekend and smoking something good, maybe some ribs or a butt or something. But I’ll report back turns out.
David Gardner: I’m too. Thank you, Jason. Thank you, Charly. Fool on.
AmEx Offers: Hush Privacy Subscription – $550
Update 6/25/26: Some readers report getting charged for a partial month ($55) due to a bug in how their system calculates the cancellation: they consider the date they send the cancellation email back to you as the date of cancellation, not the date you actually cancelled. And so if you cancel on a weekend and get it cancelled Monday because they aren’t in the office, they consider it prorated. (ht reader Kate) Hopefully they’ll refund this erroneous charge upon request, otherwise it should be possible to follow up with AmEx to dispute.
The Offer
Check your AmEx Offers for the following deal on Hush digital privacy subscription:
- Earn a one-time $550 statement credit after using your enrolled eligible Card to spend a minimum of $550 in one or more qualifying purchases online at gethush.ai by 8/28/2026.
The Fine Print
- Offer valid online only at US website gethush.ai.
- Eligible subscriptions or memberships will automatically renew unless you cancel, and the merchant will charge the applicable fee to the Card they have on file.
Our Verdict
Can rack up a bit of spend with this offer, maybe the subscription has some usefulness as well. Not sure how easy it is to cancel or whether this is sales tax on the purchase.
Note: $550 is the cost per month, so you’ll have to cancel right away. One reader mentions that it requires written cancellation.
Hat tip to reader Matt
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Late Payments Can Be an Early Warning Signal
2. Automate invoices — but anchor automation in human judgement
Automating recurring payments removes error-prone manual entry; bulk systems speed staff allowances; scheduled AP-aging workflows give real-time visibility. But we cannot simply digitize the way we have always done things and expect a superb experience. AP leaders need a new mandate: progress over prototypes.
3. Payment Terms Need Enforcement Teeth
In the EU, the proposed Late Payment Regulation — a uniform 30-day cap with strengthened penalties — was shelved in 2025. The 2011 Directive already lets creditors claim interest and recovery costs on overdue payments, but most decline for fear of harming the client relationship.
The United States shows the opposite model: interest on late federal payments accrues automatically, paid without the supplier having to ask, while the US Office of Management and Budget guidance pushes agencies toward paying within 15 days. Louisiana makes a public entity that misses 45 days liable for interest at 0.5% daily up to 15%, plus attorney fees. The critical difference is not the payment term but the enforcement mechanism. A 45-day deadline has little value if missing it carries no automatic cost for the payer.
Early payment discounts. One lever for working-capital discipline is the early-payment discount — a small reduction for payment inside a short window, rewarding the buyer for the very behavior the law tries to compel.
AI-enabled and empathetic automation. Intelligent systems can flag aging invoices, predict liquidity, and trigger acknowledgements automatically — but the goal is not merely to process a payment. It is to make the vendor feel valued while stakeholder and investor wealth are maximized. Automation should learn from human interaction, not replace the human anchor.
FDIC proposes slim resolution plans, lower insurance fees
- Key insight: The FDIC proposed scaling back resolution planning requirements for banks and lowering deposit insurance assessments.
- Supporting data: The resolution planning proposal would raise the applicability threshold from $50 billion to $100 billion, exempting 16 of the 48 banks currently covered.
- Forward look: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould described the proposals as “initial but important steps” toward broader reform objectives.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Thursday issued a proposed rule that would scale back banks’ resolution planning requirements, as well as another rule reducing what firms pay the agency for deposit insurance through the Deposit Insurance Fund.
Processing Content
The first proposal would overhaul the agency’s resolution planning rule for large insured depository institutions, in what FDIC Chair Travis Hill says replaces a process whereby banks themselves write lengthy road maps for their resolution with one that is more limited to the most crucial information needed to resolve a failed bank. Hill
“Earlier this month, I spoke about the challenges associated with resolving large insured depository institutions and the utility of advanced preparedness,” Hill
The resolution proposal would raise the asset threshold for covered institutions from $50 billion to $100 billion, indexed for inflation going forward, which FDIC staff estimated would reduce the number of covered banks from 48 to 32. It would also move all covered institutions to a three-year filing cycle and eliminate previously required public sections of submissions, interim supplements, capabilities testing, credibility assessments and much of the hypothetical analysis banks currently provide.
Banks would instead be required to submit only fundamental information on their financial condition, corporate affairs and key internal systems. The proposal would maintain the requirements to submit operational data on areas like information technology architecture, deposit activities and qualified financial contracts. Banks that would otherwise have filing obligations in late 2026 or 2027 would be exempt while the rulemaking goes through the notice-and-comment process.
The second proposal would revise the FDIC’s deposit insurance rates, increasing the asset threshold for institutions subject to the large-bank standard from $10 billion to $30 billion, also indexed for inflation. The change would shift 76 institutions from the “large” category into the small-bank assessment framework. Small institutions would see their assessment rates decrease by two basis points; large and highly complex institutions would enjoy a one-basis-point reduction.
The proposal would also establish a Resolution Readiness Adjustment that large, complex banks can opt into that would reduce their rates by up to one basis point. Banks could earn the reduction by demonstrating they can quickly populate a virtual data room with vital information for potential bidders in the event of failure and by providing the FDIC access to operational data needed to see a receivership through. According to FDIC staff, the changes would reduce industry assessments by roughly $4 billion per year while allowing the Deposit Insurance Fund to continue growing at a slower pace.
Hill said the resolution planning proposal reflects a shift toward a more practical approach to preparing for bank failures and that the proposals mark the “first step” of a broader effort to recalibrate the agency’s insurance pricing standards.
Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, who sits on the FDIC board, backed both proposals and highlighted his support for future reform on these issues.
“Although I support the two items on the discussion agenda today, I do not view them as the culmination of the work before us,” Gould said. “Rather, I view them as initial but important steps towards a more focused and effective FDIC.”
Fed survey: Companies are absorbing higher oil costs, but fears of inflation continue to rise
Chief financial officers (CFOs) across U.S. companies said they’ve been able to navigate the challenges of increased energy costs as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s done little to assuage their anxieties around future inflation, according to new Fed data.
A survey published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta and Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business surveying 530 financial executives found a growing disparity between CFOs’ trust in their own companies versus the economy more broadly as the war in Iran ostensibly concludes. Executives reported being able to absorb increased costs, but feel more pessimistic about rising prices more broadly. While two-thirds of companies saw increased production costs last quarter as a result of energy price shocks, only one-third passed those increases to consumers. However, inflation was a growing worry, with 25% of firms naming it as their most pressing concern in second-quarter 2026, up from 9.5% last quarter. CFOs slashed U.S. economic growth projections from 2.1% last quarter to 1.8% this quarter.
The pattern of a widening gap between one’s personal financial health and the broader economic health extends beyond the C-suite. The Federal Reserve’s annual Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking released last month found Americans’ overall financial wellbeing has held steady for years, with 73% of survey respondents saying they were doing OK or lived comfortably in 2025, compared to 75% in 2024. However, only 25% saw the national economy as “good” or “excellent,” mirroring 2024’s 28%, but falling far below the pre-pandemic 49%.
But with energy costs likely to persist above prewar norms, Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer suggested companies’ concerns about the economy may catch up to their own bottom lines. He noted that while pass-through rates have remained low now, if oil prices continue to rise or remain elevated, pass-through would skyrocket to about 90%.
“This suggests that in an environment of sustained higher cost pressures, firms may be unwilling or unable to absorb any more costs,” he said in a statement.
Though the U.S. and Iran signed a long-awaited “memorandum of understanding” earlier this month that set the state for a final settlement of the war, significant question marks loom about the aftershocks of this conflict, should it indeed come to an end. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil previously was traded, was technically reopened following the interim deal, but the main central route of the trade corridor remains mined and closed, and traffic remains significantly below pre-war levels. According to data from shipping analytics company Kpler, 35 ships traveled through the strait last Saturday, compared to the 100 to 10 vessels in late February.
Inflation concerns continue to rise
While oil prices have dropped to around $74 a barrel—far below the peak of around $115 a barrel in April—experts warn prices will continue to be elevated above pre-war levels as a result of complications surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and previous patterns of energy costs, which follow the “rocket and feathers” effect of rising quickly, but falling slowly.
Restricted oil supply has depleted strategic oil reserves to the lowest levels in decades, and the Strait of Hormuz will likely take months to return to prewar traffic as a result of mine-clearing efforts, increase congestion, as well as oil and natural gas flows that altered over the source of the conflict as countries adapted their supply chains to the strait’s closure. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects oil prices to level off at their still-elevated levels rather than fall to prewar norms.
These increased energy costs spell bad news for Fed economists and new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has taken a hawkish stance and vowed to target inflation, which has remained above 4%, compared to the Fed’s 2% target.
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told Marketplace this week that the U.S. has slipped backwards recently in its fight against inflation as a result of tariffs and energy shocks. While a more permanent deal with Iran would be a step in the right direction to combat rising prices, the U.S. still has to contend with rising labor costs, as well as transportation and healthcare costs keeping inflation high.
“We’ve been dealing with an inflation problem that’s well above the target and has been going the wrong way,” he said. “There are some signs, like the fact that some of the inflation came from tariffs, and that’s supposed to be one and done, that we could get some resolution in the Middle East, and maybe that inflation would go away. Those parts are good. The fact that we’ve seen it in services, which historically is pretty persistent, is a little more disturbing.”
Garmin Forerunner 165 Smartwatch for $129 on Amazon
Garmin Forerunner 165 Smartwatch for $129
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