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The Federal Reserve may have more at stake than economic growth as policymakers prepare to meet on rates this coming week.
In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said recent job numbers have been so dismal that it’s possible the U.S. may already be in a recession.
“I think the Federal Reserve desperately wants to avoid that kind of outcome,” he added. “Obviously nobody wants a recession. But also in the context of Fed independence, they really don’t want to get blamed for going into a downturn because that would impair their ability.”
Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel laid out just such a scenario in July, when he told CNBC that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may need to resign in order to preserve the central bank’s long-term independence.
His reasoning: If the economy stumbles with Powell still at the helm, then Trump can point to him as the “perfect scapegoat” and ask Congress to give the White House more power over the Fed.
“That is a threat. Don’t forget, our Federal Reserve is not at all a part of our Constitution. It’s a creature of the U.S. Congress, created by the Federal Reserve Act 1913. All its powers devolve from Congress,” Siegel explained. “Congress has amended the Federal Reserve Act many times. It could do it again. It could give powers. It could take away powers.”
Meanwhile, Stephen Miran is set to join the Fed—without resigning as chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers—after previously calling for changes that would erode its independence before he joined the Trump administration.
In a note last month, JPMorgan said Miran’s appointment to the Fed “fuels an existential threat as the administration looks likely to take aim at the Federal Reserve Act to permanently alter U.S. monetary and regulatory authority.”
Fed rate cut
Despite the enormous pressure Trump has put on the Fed to lower rates, even trying to fire Governor Lisa Cook, central bankers have largely resisted his calls so far. But the sudden deterioration in the job market has made a rate cut a virtual certainty.
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the only question on Wall Street is whether rates will come down by 25 basis points or 50 basis points from the current level of 4.25%-4.5%.
In a note on Friday, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said he expects two or three dissents for a larger cut and no dissents in favor of keeping rates unchanged.
At the Fed’s last meeting Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented from other policymakers by calling for a quarter-point cut. It’s possible they could dissent again by voting for a half-point cut, Feroli said, with Miran expected to “dutifully dissent for a larger cut” as well.
On Thursday, Zandi said the bar is high for a half-point cut, but “there’s a possibility we could get over that.” He added that a JPMorgan forecast for six cuts by the end of 2026 is reasonable, assuming a neutral level for the fed funds rate is about 3%.
“It’s possible if the economy is weaker and recession risk higher and concerns about Fed independence greater that we get something a little lower than that, 2.5% to 3%,” Zandi said.
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Weak job growth reported in early September is the latest data pointing to a softening economy.
Does that mean you should stop investing? Will housing markets crash? Does a recession loom just over the horizon?
Slow your roll there, killer. I personally continue investing $5,000 in passive real estate investments every month through a co-investing club. Here’s the case for why other investors should consider continuing to invest too, even in a weakening economy.
Lower Interest Rates
In a weakening economy, the Federal Reserve’s first go-to move is cutting interest rates. That spurs borrowing, which spurs spending, which spurs economic growth.
Lower loan rates also make it easier for real estate investments to cash flow, with debt service costing less each month.
While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do have an indirect impact on them. Beyond cutting the federal funds rate, they can also buy up more Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which would also likely push down mortgage rates.
Less Competition
Softer economies cause many would-be homebuyers and investors to pull back. For those who keep buying, that means less competition.
Less competition means fewer bidding wars, longer listing periods, and often the luxury of more time for due diligence before putting properties under contract.
Oh, and it also means buyers can see more success with lowball offers, to identify motivated sellers. If these sellers aren’t getting any other bites, they’re more likely to take your offer.
Discounted Prices
Fewer buyers in the field mean dipping property prices in some markets. In others, it means flat prices, and in still-appreciating markets, it means slower price growth than lower interest rates would usually cause.
In other words, buyers can score bargains.
Don’t you wish you could have bought properties at the fire-sale prices of the Great Recession? I certainly do.
But you have to remember that at the moment, it feels scary to buy when the economy struggles. The headlines all ring alarm bells, overall sentiment is low, no one has anything positive to say about real estate markets (or any other market) in a downturn. It takes courage to invest while everyone stands around on the sidelines chewing their fingernails.
That’s precisely why fortune favors the bold.
Less New Supply Added
In slower economies, real estate developers also slow down—by a lot.
Granted, it takes time for this to play out. New construction projects often take years. But in the grand scheme, this means less housing and commercial supply in the years to come. That in turn boosts the likely returns on any real estate investments you make today.
By the time builder confidence recovers and they start pulling permits again, that too will take years to come to fruition.
Some Real Estate Investments Resist Recessions
Not every real estate investment is recession-resilient (I’m looking at you, luxury homes). But plenty of them are.
I often hear the argument that B-class multifamily properties are recession-resilient, as C-class renters move up to B properties in strong economies and A-class renters move down to B properties in weaker economies. I don’t disagree with that logic. But recession resilience among some properties goes even deeper.
In the co-investing club, we’ve invested in several multifamily properties with property tax abatements this year. To get the property tax breaks, the operators set aside some or all of the units for affordable housing with income-driven rent caps. The operator instantly boosts the property’s NOI (and value) without spending a penny on renovations, and in a recession, the units become even more coveted.
We’ve also invested in mobile home parks with tenant-owned homes. If a recession forces a renter to choose between paying $500 for lot rent or $5,000 to move their home, which do you think they’ll choose?
Consider these just a few examples of recession-resilient real estate investments.
Don’t Try to Time the Market
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Trying to time the market is a fool’s game. Stop deluding yourself that you’ll outsmart every other investor out there, and just start dollar-cost averaging your real estate investments.
Every time I thought I’d get clever and try to time the market, picking the next hot city or the next hot asset class, the universe served me up a warm slice of humble pie.
Nowadays, I invest slowly and steadily every single month, going in on passive investments alongside other investors. We vet the deals together, too, on the premise that 50 sets of eyeballs evaluating a deal will create a much clearer picture of risks and rewards than going it alone.
Besides, surging real estate markets and economies aren’t all rainbows and butterflies for investors, either. Remember how great real estate looked in 2007? Investors sang a different tune just a year later.
Stop trying to outsmart the market, and instead invest small amounts every month in new deals, new cities, new property types. The law of averages will protect you in the long run, and in the short run, you can enjoy passive income from rents and distributions while everyone runs around screaming that the sky is falling.
The Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA) continues to demonstrate its commitment to consumer protection, transparency, and innovation.
Recent announcements highlight key developments: a thematic review exposing gaps in payment account offerings by financial institutions, and the launch of an academic journal to foster global supervisory discourse.
These initiatives seemingly underscore Malta‘s role as a forward-thinking hub in European financial services.
The MFSA’s Thematic Review into payment accounts offered by financial institutions has revealed notable shortcomings in fee transparency and consumer communication.
Conducted under the Payment Accounts Regulations (S.L. 371.18), the review scrutinized compliance with Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/34.
It focused on the quality of Fee Information Documents (FID), Statements of Fees (SOF), and the accuracy of data in the MFSA’s Payment Accounts Fees Comparison Tool.
Payment accounts, essential for everyday transactions like deposits, withdrawals, and third-party payments, must adhere to strict standards for fee comparability and disclosure.
Key findings indicate general compliance in core areas but highlight several gaps requiring urgent attention.
One institution fell short on SOF presentation, undermining transparency.
Others delayed updates to the comparison tool, leaving outdated products listed and misleading consumers.
A broader concern was low consumer awareness: many users misunderstand that these accounts are for transactional purposes only, earn no interest, and lack coverage under the Depositor Compensation Scheme—unlike traditional bank accounts.
Compounding this, some providers employed misleading terms like “Bank” or “Bank Account,” blurring lines between regulated banks and payment service providers.
MFSA Chief Officer Supervision, Dr. Christopher P. Buttigieg, emphasized the review’s implications:
“This thematic review reinforces our commitment to maintaining high standards of transparency and consumer protection in Malta’s financial services sector. While we observed general compliance in key areas, the identified gaps require immediate attention to ensure consumers receive clear, accurate information about the services they are purchasing.”
In response, the MFSA has mandated corrective actions, including standardized FID delivery before contracts, annual free-of-charge SOFs, and real-time tool updates.
Institutions must also adopt non-misleading language and educate users on service limitations.
To bolster public knowledge, the MFSA rolled out awareness campaigns on its website and social media, detailing distinctions between banks and payment providers.
This review aligns with broader EU efforts to empower consumers amid rising digital payments.
By addressing these gaps, the MFSA aims to mitigate risks of hidden fees and confusion, fostering trust in Malta’s vibrant financial ecosystem.
Supervisory follow-ups will ensure sustained compliance, protecting users in an era of fintech advancements.
Complementing its regulatory vigilance, the MFSA launched the inaugural volume of the Journal of Financial Supervisors Academy (JFSA) on September 1, 2025.
Released by the MFSA’s Financial Supervisors Academy, this open-access international journal bridges academic research and practical supervision.
It seeks to advance policymaking through rigorous analysis of financial regulation, offering diverse insights into a sector shaped by technological and geopolitical shifts.
Volume I features contributions from academics, economists, legal experts, and supervisors, delving into digital finance, capital markets, regulatory independence, and university-authority collaborations.
Topics reflect pressing challenges, from AI-driven advancements to cross-border oversight.
MFSA CEO Kenneth Farrugia hailed the launch as:
“A significant milestone for Malta, demonstrating our commitment to shaping regulatory thought leadership and strengthening the intellectual foundations of financial supervision.”
Editor-in-Chief Professor Christopher P. Buttigieg added that the JFSA closes the divide between theory and practice, with Volume II slated to examine the evolving art of supervision.
The event at San Anton Palace saw contributors present the journal to President Myriam Spiteri Debono, who endorsed it as a patron.
She stated:
“At its core, financial supervision supports the growth of the financial system while protecting its integrity and the interest of citizens. In today’s world, supervision cannot be static. It must evolve, adapt and anticipate threats—whether they arise from technological disruptions, cybercrime or misconduct.”
To recap, the payment accounts review and journal launch indicate the MFSA‘s focus on immediate consumer safeguards paired with long-term intellectual advancement.
Now that Zillow has gone all-in on mortgages, soon you might not be able to compare rates from third-party lenders on their website.
This would be unfortunate as their so-called Zillow Mortgage Marketplace is a great tool to see rates from a bunch of local lenders all at once.
It allows Zillow visitors to quickly get a sense for current mortgage rates and gain exposure to options they might not otherwise see.
Now that Zillow Home Loans is making a big push to originate its own loans, this marketplace has become harder to find (but it still exists!).
For me, it speaks to a bigger trend in the industry, where there’s less and less room for the smaller independent lender or mortgage broker.
Less Consumer Choice When It Comes to Mortgage Rates
I understand that Zillow wants its visitors to go straight to its in-house mortgage lender if they need a home loan (why wouldn’t they?).
Back in 2019, Zillow Home Loans was officially launched after they acquired Mortgage Lenders of America in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Originally, the move was intended to streamline mortgage financing for its now shuttered Zillow Offers platform, which was an iBuying program that struggled to take off.
Despite that setback, Zillow has made an even bigger foray into mortgages in recent years, going on a loan officer hiring spree to grow its business.
Per industry consultant Mike DelPrete, the company nearly doubled its mortgage loan originator count between May 2023 and June 2024, at a time when other lenders were shedding staff.
Despite a poor lending environment driven by high mortgage rates, the company kept hiring.
And it finally paid off, with home purchase volume exceeding $1.1 billion in the second quarter of 2025, a near-50% year-over-year increase (see chart below).
This has made it abundantly clear that they’re serious about becoming a major mortgage player, even though they’re still kind of small.
It’s also becoming clear that they may no longer have room in their business model for third-party mortgage lenders.
Many smaller mortgage companies and local mortgage brokers rely upon Zillow for leads.
Now they may have to go elsewhere, though these alternatives seem to be quickly drying up.
What this means is the consumer will ultimately be left with fewer choices and more home loans will wind up with the big guys.
Studies have proven that consumer choice is good for mortgages (and likely everything else), but we’re seeing more and more consolidation and that’s bad for prospective home buyers.
Mortgages Are Going Vertical
Lately, we’ve seen a big push for real estate and mortgage companies to go vertical.
That is, control more of the entire process from start to finish, whether it’s real estate agent selection, loan origination, or loan servicing, once the mortgage funds.
We’ve seen it with Zillow via this home loan push, and also with their rival Redfin, which got acquired by Rocket Mortgage.
Redfin also used to have a mortgage comparison tool, despite the launch of Redfin Mortgage years ago.
Now those who visit the Redfin website or use the Redfin app will be pitched a home loan by Rocket Mortgage.
And once they have a loan, their in-house loan servicer will likely reach out to offer them a mortgage refinance or home equity loan.
It’s becoming tougher and tougher for a third-party lender to break through, and with less choice, expect higher rates/costs.
As I always say, when a lender reaches out, reach out to other lenders. Take the time to compare quotes beyond just one lender.
This is especially important now as we see more consolidation in the industry, and because mortgages are more or less a commodity.
They don’t really differ that much from one company to another, so securing a lower rate with fewer closing costs is key.
In fact, the only real difference might be the loan process. Once the loan funds, it’ll likely operate exactly like any other 30-year fixed mortgage (the most popular loan choice).
Read on: The Gap Between Good and Bad Mortgage Rates Has Grown Wider, Shop Accordingly
(photo: k)
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
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It’s every landlord’s worst nightmare: being scammed by their tenant. As if there weren’t enough scams around, ripping off landlords is becoming increasingly popular. Whether it’s seeing your rental apartment listed online by someone else or receiving fake employment and financial documents, dealing with con artists is one of the reasons why many investors decide that being a landlord is more trouble than it’s worth.
According to HousingWire, 93% of landlords have discovered fraudulent tenant documents, and 84% have uncovered false income or employment claims. Fraud detection and income verification software Snappt reported that 6.4% of rental applications were fraudulent in 2024—scams are becoming increasingly sophisticated.
Snappt and rentprep.com have listed some of the most common scams landlords need to be aware of. However, HousingWire reports that scammers are evading fraud detection software by using forged pay stubs, altered credit reports, and fake employment letters. Mom-and-pop landlords who own single-family homes and don’t have the financial resources of larger apartment buildings are increasingly in the scammers’ crosshairs.
Career Scammers
One of the most egregious recent scams involved Russell and Linda Callahan, who were indicted for orchestrating a rental scam that stretched out for 20 years in Worcester County, Massachusetts. Among their list of fraudulent activities were bouncing security deposit checks, lying on applications, and defrauding landlords out of over $100,000.
Fake Landlords
Being a fake landlord is another popular scam technique, where listings are posted on social media, and prospective tenants hand over thousands of dollars with no legal right to be in the property.
Generally, online rental sites like Zillow, Realtor.com, and Apartments.com have more robust fraud protection software in place, with inquiries directed to real estate agents, but social media sites like Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist are the wild west when it comes to fake listings, because it’s where smaller landlords tend to post, making them easily searchable and able to be defrauded.
Rental management platform Rently reported that, as of 2023 numbers, fake rental listings have led to a 45% increase in rental scam complaints reported to the FTC and Better Business Bureau over the last two years. Victims often lose their security deposit and first month’s rent. According to a Rently survey, about half of the respondents lose $1,000 or more, and 8% lose over $5,000.
“As housing demand surges, scammers are exploiting renters’ desperation with alarming precision,” Rently CEO Merrick Lackner said in a press release. “Beyond the financial loss, these scams create lasting emotional harm, turning what should be an exciting step into a source of stress and heartbreak.”
AI Will Increase Scams
Snappt’s 2024 Fraud Report: Data, Trends, and Strategies for 2025 suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) will play an increasingly significant role in would-be tenants scamming, with ever-sophisticated ways of manipulating documents.
“As fraud continues to evolve in 2025, leveraging best-in-class document fraud detection and income verification technology is the only way to catch these bad actors before they result in financial losses,” said Snappt CEO Daniel Berlind in the company’s release.
The South Is America’s Scamming Heartland
According to Snappt’s Top U.S. Cities for Application Fraud 2025, Atlanta is America’s No. 1 city for application fraud, with a 17.9% rate in 2025. Houston is second (16.2%), followed by Dallas/Fort Worth (13.2%).
“Over the past two years, there’s been a noticeable increase in rental scams, with a greater concentration in the Houston area,” Michael Molloy, director of the Texas Real Estate Commission, said in a press release. “These scams are deceiving landlords, tenants, and even our license holders into fraudulent lease agreements.”
Using an Agent Helps Protect Against Fraud—Sometimes
The fail-safe way to avoid falling victim to a rental listing scam as a prospective tenant is to meet the “landlord” in person. For actual landlords, using a licensed Realtor is the safest way to ensure a tenant is not a scam artist. These professionals have a license to protect and access to company software, which is likely more rigorous than that of an investor. However, even some agents are not savvy to the methods used by seasoned tenant scammers.
A property owner in the celebrity-studded neighborhood of Calabasas in Los Angeles used a reputable real estate agency to find tenants for her home. After they moved in, they filed a litany of complaints, hired lawyers, and immediately stopped paying rent while hosting parties. Within four months, the tenants cost the owner $100,000 in damages.
“They turned my home into one of these megamansion party houses like you see on the news,” owner Cheri Woods told theNew York Post.
One New York horror story, depicted inNew York Magazine, describes the ordeal of a Manhattan landlord who allowed a seemingly well-paid architect with impeccable credentials into her condo—only to have him demolish the interior and demand money to leave. It turned out he had done the same thing to other landlords in the past, but expertly covered his trail.
Seasoned agents should now be prepared to go the extra mile to screen tenants. “Many, many agents will run a credit check on behalf of an incoming tenant, but not a criminal background check,” Douglas Elliman agent Carl A. Ekroth told the Post. “When qualifying any potential tenants, landlords should always insist on both.”
Owners Should Oversee Their Agents
Los Angeles-area real estate investor Jameson Tyler Drew of Anubis Properties advises that landlords should not rely solely on agents and should conduct their own due diligence on the individuals they hire to vet their tenants.
“I love my profession, but I will be the first to tell you that there are some people in this business who shouldn’t be,” Drew told the Post. “I’ve seen agents and brokers knee-deep in all manner of scams.”
Ways Landlords Can Protect Themselves From Scammers
So if you’re a landlord, how do you make sure you don’t fall prey to these common scams? Here are five steps to take.
1. Strengthen screening and authentication
Demand verifiable ID and income documentation. Use tools with enhanced identity verification, document authentication, and credit and background checks. Apply AI technology screening solutions to flag inconsistencies and identify sophisticated forged documents.
2. Know the overpayment red flag
When a tenant overpays and requests a partial refund, be cautious. It’s a common scam. Verify the authenticity with the bank.
3. Create clear policies around subleasing, and check listing sites
Avoid listing your apartment on short-term rental sites by prohibiting subleasing in your lease.
4. Monitor listing sites and brand your own rentals so others cannot use them
Watermarking your listing photos is an obvious way to deter scammers from listing them on the Internet. Be sure to stay informed about what websites are posting.
5. Insist on secure payment methods through verifiable platforms
Avoid wire transfers, cryptocurrency, and gift cards.
Final Thoughts
Check with local districts about the landlord-tenant policies in your area. In New York, professional tenants have been known to be allowed to remain in apartments for over a year without paying rent. Ideally, however, you would have stopped a scamming tenant long before they set foot into your apartment.
Sometimes, landlords are so desperate to fill their units that they shortcut the vetting procedures. You could be setting yourself up for a whole world of hurt. The more specific documentation you require, such as bank statements, letters from employers, and background checks, that you can verify, the more you will deter scammers.
