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The big interview: ‘These are my people’: Lending veteran builds tools for loan officers


“I’ve watched loan officers very unsafely access technology while on their phone driving a car at the same time,” Clayton told Mortgage Professional America. “And so that’s what I think of, right? When they show me technology, I’m like, ‘Could someone do this if they only have one eye on it and they’re kind of zoning out and they’re taking a phone call?’ And like, that’s my litmus bar for usability.”

Climbing a different tree

Her path ran through Countrywide, Bank of America, and home builders before Paramount Residential Mortgage Group (PRMG), where she was most recently a marketing executive. At the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mPowering You summit, speaker Hoda Kotb gave her words for what came next.

“She talked about this, ‘I climbed that tree and now I want to climb another one,’” Clayton said. “And I’m like, 100%. Like, I climbed that tree. I did all the things that there were to do in lending.”

Cotality first approached her as a prospective customer, asking whether she would buy its products. She was still at PRMG at the time.

“I said, ‘Your products are cool, but well, if you did this and this and this, maybe lenders would be interested,’” she said. “And then later on, after I sort of finished my time there, they said, ‘You know, that’s actually a job. You can help us shape products so there’s something lenders actually need and will use.’ Nobody has engineering resources to spare to build products that nobody wants.”

Delta Just Replaced the Best Way to Get Customer Service With an AI Chatbot



Its latest push to get travelers to use its app is rubbing some Delta Air Lines customers the wrong way.

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Librarian Sues After Education Department Refuses To Count 9 Years Toward PSLF


Key Points

  • A former Virginia law librarian sued the Department of Education in May 2026 after it denied two of her PSLF applications and never ruled on a third, filed in December 2022.
  • The Justice Department argued she had to prove most of her own job duties were public service, a test that appears in no version of the PSLF rules.
  • ED’s records show 210 eligible payments on her loans, but only 81 count because the department won’t credit her nine years at the Fairfax Bar Association.

Melissa Scheeren worked at the Fairfax Bar Association’s public law library and pro bono center from March 2008 to February 2017. She later worked for Arlington County, the Library of Congress and the University of Virginia, all government employers. She consolidated her older FFEL loans into a Direct Consolidation Loan in November 2021 using the Biden Limited PSLF Waiver, and ED now credits 210 eligible payments on that loan.

In May 2026, she sued the Department of Education and MOHELA (PDF File) arguing she was owed Public Service Loan Forgiveness when she applied in September 2022.

One of the first issues is that a 501(c)(3) nonprofit qualifies automatically. Other nonprofits, like the bar association, which is a 501(c)(6), have to show that they provide a listed public service. While Scheeren’s employment does meet this and the DOJ agrees, it appears to be one of the first holdups.

The second issue appears to be related to the limited PSLF waiver, consolidation, and payment counts. A July 2025 ED letter in the court record shows 210 eligible payments on her loans and 81 qualifying payments. Regardless of the reasons for the error, it appears she is entitled to have her loans forgiven.

Scheeren says she has paid $16,140.71 on loans that should have been discharged, and about $40,000 remains on her account. She is asking the court to reverse the denial and process the forgiveness she says she’s owed.

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Why It Matters

The government’s defense rests on a reading of PSLF that ED itself has rejected. In an August 19, 2026 motion for summary judgment (PDF File), the Justice Department wrote that Scheeren “was required to prove that most of her employment with the FBA was in one of the enumerated fields.”

PSLF has never measured the borrower’s job. That’s why a career in public service can lead to forgiveness for any full-time worker at a qualifying employer, whatever the role.

The government’s own exhibits say the same thing. In a letter to Sen. Tim Kaine (PDF File) about Scheeren’s case, Federal Student Aid wrote that eligibility “is not about the work a borrower does but is based on who their employer is.”

DOJ filed that letter with its own motion, and it matches how Public Service Loan Forgiveness has worked since 2008.

How Did ED Handle Her PSLF Applications?

ED and MOHELA denied two applications with reasons that contradict, and the third has never been decided. She also followed the PSLF paperwork steps borrowers are told to take, including reconsideration requests, complaints and an ombudsman escalation.

.tci-pslfd{box-sizing:border-box;color:#141414;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;margin:0 0 24px 0}.tci-pslfd *{box-sizing:border-box}.tci-pslfd__box{width:100%;max-width:100%;border:2px solid #141414;border-radius:8px;background:#FFFFFF;overflow:hidden}.tci-pslfd__head{padding:14px 16px;background:#141414;color:#FFFFFF;font-weight:700;font-size:1.08em;line-height:1.3}.tci-pslfd__head span{color:#f6c061}.tci-pslfd table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1em;line-height:1.45;margin:0;border:0}.tci-pslfd th,.tci-pslfd td{padding:11px 14px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border:0;border-top:1px solid #e5e0d8}.tci-pslfd th{background:#f9f7f5;color:#141414;font-weight:700;border-top:0;font-size:.85em;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.04em}.tci-pslfd th:first-child{width:20%}.tci-pslfd td:first-child{font-weight:700;color:#141414;white-space:nowrap}.tci-pslfd tr:nth-child(even) td{background:#fcfbf9}.tci-pslfd__pill{display:inline-block;padding:2px 9px;border-radius:999px;font-size:.85em;font-weight:700;white-space:nowrap;margin-right:6px}.tci-pslfd__pill–no{background:#fde2e2;color:#7f1d1d}.tci-pslfd__pill–mixed{background:#f6c061;color:#141414}.tci-pslfd__pill–work{background:#dff3e4;color:#14532d}.tci-pslfd tr.tci-pslfd__total td{background:#f6c061;color:#141414;font-weight:700}.tci-pslfd__foot{padding:10px 16px;font-size:.88em;color:#55504a;background:#f9f7f5;border-top:1px solid #e5e0d8}@media (max-width:640px){.tci-pslfd tr.tci-pslfd__total{background:#f6c061}.tci-pslfd table,.tci-pslfd tbody,.tci-pslfd tr,.tci-pslfd td{display:block;width:100%}.tci-pslfd thead{display:none}.tci-pslfd tr{border-top:1px solid #e5e0d8;padding:10px 14px}.tci-pslfd tr:first-child{border-top:0}.tci-pslfd tr:nth-child(even) td{background:transparent}.tci-pslfd tr:nth-child(even){background:#fcfbf9}.tci-pslfd td{border:0;padding:3px 0;white-space:normal}.tci-pslfd td::before{content:attr(data-label);display:block;font-size:.78em;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.04em;color:#8a8378;margin-bottom:2px}}

One Borrower’s PSLF Record 2008–2026
Date What Happened Outcome
Mar. 2008–Feb. 2017 Works full-time at the Fairfax Bar Association’s public law library and pro bono center 108 PaymentsMade during these years, by her count. ED counts none of them.
Apr. 2018–Present Works full-time for government employers: Arlington County, the Library of Congress and the University of Virginia 81 PaymentsCredited by ED as of July 2026
June 2019 Reaches her 120th qualifying payment, by her count 120 PaymentsEligible for forgiveness if the bar association years count
Nov. 4, 2021 Consolidates older FFEL loans into a Direct Consolidation Loan during the Limited PSLF Waiver 210 EligibleED later credits 210 eligible payments on the new loan
Sept. 2, 2022 Files PSLF Application 1 with the association’s bylaws DeniedOct. 24, 2022, calling the nonprofit “a for-profit organization”
Oct. 24, 2022 Files PSLF Application 2 with bylaws and public website materials DeniedOct. 27, 2023, saying it “does not provide a public service”
Dec. 12, 2022 Files PSLF Application 3, adding articles of incorporation and a letter from the executive director Never DecidedStill open
July 13, 2023 Files Reconsideration Request 1 DeniedFive days later
Nov. 13, 2023 Files Reconsideration Request 2 with certified corporate records DeniedMarch 27, 2024, with the same one-line reason
Jan. 30, 2024 Files a complaint with the Department of Education ClosedFeb. 27, 2025, with a general form letter
May 13, 2026 Sues ED and MOHELA in federal court PendingBefore Judge Christopher Cooper
Where She Stands 81 qualifying payments credited, 189 if the bar association years count 120 needed for forgiveness
Source: Scheeren v. Department of Education court filings. The College Investor.

MOHELA was ED’s dedicated PSLF servicer from July 2022 to July 2024. In its July 2026 answer (PDF File), MOHELA denied that it made the decision to deny her application. The servicer also faces an AFT lawsuit over its PSLF processing.

Why Doesn’t DOJ’s Argument Match The PSLF Rules?

DOJ’s argument relies on a rule that took effect after Scheeren applied, and it misreads that rule. The provision it quotes comes from ED’s 2022 final rule (PDF File), which took effect July 1, 2023. The rule in force when she applied covered any private nonprofit providing a listed service, such as public library services. Those categories still decide which nonprofit jobs count toward PSLF.

The 2023 rule’s majority test applies to the employer, which must devote a majority of its full-time staff to qualifying work. The same rulemaking says PSLF eligibility has always turned on “whether the borrower works for a qualifying employer, not their specific job.” ED tried to narrow employer eligibility again in 2025, and a federal judge struck down that rule in June 2026.

The filings also concede the facts that decide the case under the earlier rule. DOJ’s brief acknowledges the bar association is a nonprofit. ED’s declarant, Nikki Harris Bowman, wrote in her declaration (PDF File) that operating a public law library “meets the criteria” of the regulation. The brief even describes the denial as resting on “an incorrect finding,” though it still argues the PSLF denial should stand.

Scheeren’s attorney, Austin Hinkle of Public Goods Practice, called the declaration an after-the-fact rationale in a September 9 opposition and cross-motion (PDF File). On LinkedIn, he wrote that ED “apparently just made up some new interpretation of a decades old law for this case.” He says DOJ’s reply “conceded that it was entirely wrong about the law” but still asked to win and hasn’t discharged her PSLF-eligible loans. That reply is sealed, and The College Investor has not reviewed it.

What Should Borrowers At Non-501(c)(3) Nonprofits Know?

A nonprofit outside 501(c)(3), such as a bar association, can still be a qualifying PSLF employer. Under the current rule, it must devote a majority of its full-time staff to a listed public service and can’t be a labor union or partisan political group. The test looks at the employer, so a librarian and an accountant there earn PSLF credit the same way.

If ED rejects your employer, its letter to Sen. Kaine says reconsideration isn’t the fix. You submit a new PSLF form through the PSLF Help Tool and upload proof, such as bylaws. Keep copies of every form and denial letter, since Scheeren’s saved records became the administrative record ED certified in court.

How This Connects

ED’s broader efforts to limit PSLF employers haven’t held up in court. The department appealed the rulings against its 2025 employer rule in August, but then dropped appeals in October.

The PSLF process is also currently mired in a technical glitch that has left borrowers unable to see their most current PSLF qualifying counts since July of 2026.

Long waits are common too. ED reported 86,520 PSLF Buyback applications pending at the end of January 2026, a backlog that would take about three years to clear at January’s pace. Scheeren’s third application has waited nearly four years without any decision.

While buyback and “normal” PSLF are two different processes, these delays are frustrating for borrowers expecting loan forgiveness.

What’s Next

Judge Christopher Cooper now has to decide on whether ED followed its own PSLF employer rules. Scheeren’s proposed order (PDF File) asks him to vacate the denials and declare the bar association a qualifying employer. It would also give ED 30 days to process her loan forgiveness, with any discharge effective as of November 2021.

DOJ has offered a stay so ED can review more documents, and Scheeren asked the court to decline it.

We’re also tracking court filings on student loan processing delays for signs ED is clearing older PSLF forms.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post Librarian Sues After Education Department Refuses To Count 9 Years Toward PSLF appeared first on The College Investor.

Prediction: This Will Be SpaceX’s Stock Price in 3 Years


Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -2.25%) was a stock that many were skeptical of when it went public. While there was a sound business behind it, its early $2 trillion market cap seemed a bit suspect. Fast-forward a few months from its initial public offering to today, and after some notable ups and downs, its market cap sits at about $2 trillion. However, what has changed along the way is the market’s perception of the business.

While I was skeptical of SpaceX’s financial viability as a $2 trillion company, it recently showed investors why it deserves that valuation, primarily through its incredible growth. This is coming from business segments that some investors might not have expected, and it could be the factor SpaceX needs to drive it to new highs over the next few years.

But where will SpaceX stock be in three years? I think it could be trading at $375 per share, about two and a half times today’s price. If it can deliver returns like that, then it makes for a screaming buy now. So, how will SpaceX get there? Let’s take a look.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX’s growth will come from non-space places

If you ask the average person what SpaceX does, they’ll likely talk about the fact that it launches rockets that put payloads into space, and then lands those launch platforms back on Earth for reuse. That’s entirely accurate, but it overlooks the company’s higher-growth segments.

In the third quarter, SpaceX’s space segment revenue rose from $1.67 billion to $1.77 billion year over year, or about 6% growth. That’s not impressive at all and would have many investors questioning it as a stock pick. However, SpaceX’s space business isn’t what’s exciting.

Its two other business segments are. SpaceX’s connectivity and super intelligence (SI) divisions are the two reasons to invest in SpaceX.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies

$145.23-$3.35 (-2.25%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/28/26

Connectivity includes the Starlink broadband service, which gives its users access to satellite-based internet nearly anywhere in the world. This division’s revenue rose from $3.1 billion in the prior-year quarter to $5.25 billion this time. That’s a 69% growth rate. Furthermore, connectivity generated $2.4 billion in operating income and was the primary reason SpaceX was profitable in Q3. This service should continue to grow at a strong pace and will help make SpaceX’s stock a market-crushing one.

Lastly is super intelligence, which used to be called the artificial intelligence (AI) division. This segment is a new addition to SpaceX: Previously, it was xAI, a separate Elon Musk-helmed company, but Musk had SpaceX buy xAI back in February, ahead of the IPO. However, the super intelligence segment’s growth has been simply incredible. In Q3, revenue rose 830% year over year to $7.56 billion, and while another acquisition it made along the way somewhat influenced that figure, it’s still doing great overall.

The reality is that SpaceX isn’t just a rocket company; it’s an internet and AI business. This is what will drive the stock to new heights, but how far can it take it?

Modeling SpaceX is difficult

Because SpaceX hasn’t been public for a year, we don’t have much information regarding the seasonality of its business. Furthermore, we have no idea whether its AI revenue will continue to expand as it has. However, CEO Musk commented that he expects SpaceX’s annualized recurring revenue run rate to reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. That’s a bold assertion, but Musk is no stranger to those.

SPCX Revenue (Quarterly) Chart

SPCX Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts.

He’s known to make overly ambitious projections, but I do think this one could be within reach in a couple of years due to strong AI growth. So, if SpaceX could generate $500 billion in revenue three years from now and trades at that point at a reasonable 10 times sales, that would make it a $5 trillion company, or about 150% higher than today’s market cap. That would be a $375 stock, which would make SpaceX a no-brainer buy at today’s levels.

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How to Protect Your Business Name With a Trademark


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Overview

You found a great name, bought the domain, locked in the social handles and filed the LLC. It feels settled. But none of those steps gives you the legal right to use the name, and the conflict usually shows up after the logo is designed and the launch date is on the calendar.

On this episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast, I talk with trademark attorney Natalie Nguyen, founder of Prolumis Legal in Oklahoma City, about how to trademark a business name the right way. We cover why a Google search isn’t a clearance search, how trademark classes work, what it costs when someone else registers your name first, and why those cheap filing offers in your inbox can create bigger problems later.

This one is for small business owners, entrepreneurs, authors and marketing agencies who name things for a living. If you’re launching a business, a product line or a book, listen before you spend money on design.

Guest Bio

Natalie Nguyen is a trademark attorney and the founder of Prolumis Legal in Oklahoma City. She has filed more than 2,000 trademark applications, building her experience in a high-volume national trademark practice and an in-house role at a Fortune 100 company. Nguyen is licensed in Texas and Oklahoma.

She founded Prolumis Legal on the belief that trademark protection should start with strategy, built around where a business is headed. She works with entrepreneurs, branding agencies, authors, publishers and podcasters on clearance, registration and brand protection.

Key Takeaways

  • Forming an LLC and registering a domain gives you a business entity and a web address. Trademark rights come from registering with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
  • A Google search will catch identical names, but trademark confusion can come from names that are only similar.
  • Clearance has to look beyond your exact goods and services to anything a consumer might see as related.
  • Trademarks are registered by class. Delta Air Lines, Delta Faucet and Delta Dental can all coexist because they sell very different things.
  • Big brands can still push back across classes if they believe a newcomer is trading on their goodwill.
  • Using a name for decades gives you common law rights, but defending them means a cancellation fight that is costly, slow and uncertain.
  • Nguyen’s triage for any name: Is it distinctive? Is it available? Can it grow with your business?
  • Branding agencies help their clients most when they bring a trademark attorney in before presenting final name options.
  • Budget filing services rarely include a proper search or careful goods and services descriptions, and the USPTO filing fee alone is $350 per class.
  • Anyone can use TM. Only marks registered with the USPTO can use ®. Once you’re registered, you’re responsible for policing your mark, starting with a cease and desist letter.

Great Moments (Timestamps)

[00:01] – The name feels settled, until it isn’t

[01:06] – What 2,000 trademark filings have shown Nguyen about when owners discover a problem

[01:51] – A family business using its name for fifty years finds someone else already registered it

[02:53] – Common law rights and why defending them is expensive

[03:56] – The marketer’s view of a name versus the trademark attorney’s view

[04:58] – The biggest misconception: the LLC and the domain

[05:24] – Why a Google search misses potential conflicts

[06:08] – Using the USPTO’s own search tool as a starting point

[06:55] – The Delta example and how trademark classes work

[07:24] – False association and borrowing someone else’s goodwill

[08:09] – Triage for a name that’s already launched

[08:31] – The Brand Protection Scorecard

[10:08] – ProlumisClear and why branding agencies should involve an attorney early

[10:55] – The retailer contract that hinged on a trademark someone else had filed

[12:17] – Are the $275 trademark filing offers worth it?

[14:24] – Disclaimers and why I couldn’t claim the word “marketing”

[15:23] – Can you trademark a book title?

[16:38] – Date of first use anywhere versus date of first use in commerce

[17:37] – Protecting a trademark outside the United States

[18:36] – TM versus ®

[19:47] – How to police your trademark

[21:20] – How to connect with Nguyen

Memorable Quotes

“Just because you got the LLC, just because you got the domain, your trademark is not protected.” Nguyen

“It doesn’t have to be identical for there to be trademark confusion.” Nguyen

“A trademark is not just about filing a trademark. You need to come up with a strategy from the beginning.” Nguyen

“If there’s any trademark attorney that is telling you that they can file a trademark for $200, you’re going to get what you’re paying for.” Nguyen

“I would much rather have that conversation in the beginning than later on, after they’ve already invested thousands of dollars.” Nguyen

Resources

 

 

Mortgage Rates Under Pressure Ahead of Fed Meeting and Inflation Data


Mortgage rates are a tad bit worse today heading into the Fed’s October meeting.

Most notably, the bellwether 10-year bond yield is back above 5% with traders likely playing some defense.

The 10-year acts as a benchmark for the 30-year fixed mortgage, so expect rates to tick up a bit if this holds.

However, this has been a super flat week for mortgage rates, one of the dullest in recent memory.

But it tells you this could be a pivotal week where we finally see real improvement or rates return to their rising trend.

The Bellwether 10-Year Bond Yield Is Back Above 5% Ahead of the Fed

As noted, bond yields are on the rise again, with the 10-year up about four ticks to 5.03%.

That’s the first time it’s been over 5% for a week and could be a sign of things to come depending on what Fed speak and economic data we get today and tomorrow.

If 10-year yields are back above 5%, it means traders aren’t all that eager to buy bonds at current levels.

That trend has kept pressure on mortgage rates for the past month and change, and could lead to another leg higher if the underlying data reinforces the move.

We’ve got the Fed’s favorite PCE report being released tomorrow alongside GDP, along with a Fed meeting complete with presser afterwards with new Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

Warsh can calm markets if he says the Fed is holding because it believes inflation is mostly energy-driven.

But he can do the opposite if he says it’s more widespread and entrenched, and that more hikes are likely coming.

So that’s something to look out for in the post-meeting press conference. Is he dovish or hawkish? The Fed holding is a certainty, so that’s the only real takeaway to keep an eye on.

Ultimately though, their decision will depend on the economic data, as it always does.

The Fed simply follows the data, so if those reports come in hotter-than-expected, you should expect higher mortgage rates.

If they’re cooler-than-expected, we might see the 30-year fixed fall closer to the low-7s again.

Is the Bond Market Playing Defense Ahead of Inflation Data and Tech Earnings?

Here’s my take. Bond yields are probably higher because of what’s coming tomorrow (and after the market closes today).

Aside from that fresh inflation report tomorrow, we’ve got major earnings announcements coming from Alphabet and Microsoft.

Leading up to the earnings release, Microsoft announced buyout offers to 60,000 employees, which paints a grim picture.

The move is to reduce costs so it can continue to fund its “massive AI investments.”

This too is a theme to pay attention to with regard to the bond issuance that can crowd out investment in things like mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Back in the early 2000s, high-yielding MBS were the darling of the market and received tons of demand from investors.

Today, investors aren’t too interested in MBS and are instead chasing higher yields on bonds tied to the AI buildout.

If these tech giants express that AI is fizzling, or financing the enormous costs is becoming a problem, you could see another flight to safety in government bonds and MBS.

That’s what got mortgage rates off their highs to begin with over the past couple weeks.

Conversely, if AI investment is back on again, we might see Treasuries, MBS, and mortgage rates rise again as yields must climb to boost demand.

That’s what we’ve seen this week. AI is all of a sudden hot again and so are the related stocks, which could begin to push bond yields back up if nobody’s buying.

In the process, mortgage rates could march higher again too.

Read on: How are mortgage rates determined?

Colin Robertson
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Do Turnkey Rentals Deliver? A Look at Rent to Retirement’s Track Record


Turnkey rentals are built on a simple promise: The provider delivers a rent-ready home, places a tenant, lines up property management, and gives the buyer a projection of what the property will rent for. That home can be a newly built property or an older house that the provider has rehabbed or renovated before the sale. Because many turnkey investors never see the home in person, the rent projection carries a lot of weight in the decision to buy.

Rent to Retirement (RTR) is a turnkey single-family rental provider. According to the company, about 80% of its inventory is new construction, and the remaining 20% is older homes that it rehabs or renovates.

RTR decided to put its own track record to the test. The company opened its sales records to an independent third party, which reviewed 3,090 homes RTR sold between 2017 and 2026. The reviewers matched 2,763 of those homes to public resale records and compared projected rent with investor-reported rent on 740 of them.

The results speak to three questions every turnkey investor should ask:

  1. Do buyers hold on to their properties? 
  2. Do the owners who sell get more than they paid? 
  3. Does the projected rent actually show up?

Most Buyers Hold for the Long Term

The homes RTR sold in 2017 and 2018 have the longest ownership record in the review, since their buyers have had seven to eight years to decide whether to sell.

Of the 489 homes RTR sold in those two years, 369 are still owned by the original buyer, which works out to 75.5%. Among 2018 buyers, 79.2% still own their homes, and among 2017 buyers, 71.1% still do.

RTR credits much of that staying power to its scale. The company works with builders, lenders, and property managers in each of its markets, and those relationships help owners solve repair, vacancy, and financing problems early. RTR also encourages its investors to work through setbacks instead of selling, because its entire model is built around long-term ownership.

Owners Who Held Sold Above Cost

The review found 148 recorded resales among RTR homes. The median home sold for 1.41 times its original purchase price, and three out of four sold for more than the buyer paid.

The longer owners held, the better their results were. Owners who held for four years or more sold above their purchase price 96% of the time, and their median sale price ranged from 1.57 to 1.86 times what they paid. Owners who sold within two years broke even at the median.

For owners who held for at least two years, sale prices rose by a median of 8.7% per year. That figure reflects the sale price alone, so an owner’s total return also depends on the rent they collected, how they financed the home, and what they spent to operate it.

Sale prices varied for the investors who chose to sell. RTR points out that the investors who still own their newly built homes started from a strong position. Through its builder relationships, RTR secures institutional-level buyer incentives that the company says exceed anything publicly available on the MLS. Those incentives give RTR investors better terms on the purchase than a typical buyer would get on the open market.

Most RTR investors never sell at all. According to RTR, its typical investor holds for seven to nine years, and many use that window to refinance and pull out cash or to trade up through a 1031 exchange. Both strategies let owners stay invested and keep building equity.

Most Rents Landed Right on Projection

Rent is the number a turnkey buyer relies on most. Among the 740 homes with both a projected rent and an investor-reported rent, the median home rented for exactly what RTR projected.

In total, 598 homes, or 80.8%, collected at least 95% of their projected rent, and 476 homes, or 64.3%, landed within 5% of the projection in either direction. One Alabama home bought for $332,400, for example, was projected to rent for $2,350 a month and rented for exactly that amount.

No forecast is perfect, and the homes that came in below 95% of their projection fell short by a median of 15%. On a $2,000 monthly rent, that gap would be about $300, so investors should keep cash reserves on hand for any rental they own.

Ohio Projections Were the Most Accurate

Projection accuracy varied by market. Ohio, which makes up RTR’s largest rent sample with 355 homes, had 94.9% of homes rent at or above 95% of their projection. Tennessee and Alabama followed closely at 89.5% and 89.1%.

Florida rents ran softer than the other states in the review. Just under half of Florida homes, 46%, reached 95% of their projection, and the median Florida home rented for 93% of the projected amount. Investors looking at Florida properties should build a little more cushion into their numbers.

Lower-Priced Homes Hit Projection Most Often

The purchase price showed a similar pattern. Homes that sold for under $150,000 reached at least 95% of their projected rent 97.5% of the time, while homes priced above $350,000 did so 51.2% of the time.

Lower-priced homes also delivered stronger gross yields, which measure annual rent as a share of the purchase price. The median gross yield was 10.8% for homes under $150,000 and 7.7% for homes above $250,000.

What to Check Before You Buy

A pro forma is a projection made on closing day, so investors should know what a good one includes. A useful pro forma lists every expense, including a vacancy allowance and money set aside for large repairs. It also spells out the loan terms, which lets a buyer test how the deal holds up if rent comes in lower or a repair costs more than expected.

It also helps to ask any turnkey provider for its track record by market and by price point, since RTR’s data shows how much those two factors can matter. From there, buyers should complete the standard due diligence: an inspection, a review of comparable rents from a local property manager, a careful read of the management agreement, and their own quotes for insurance and taxes.

What This Means for Investors

Rent To Retirement’s records point to three clear takeaways:

  1. Most early buyers still own their homes years later.
  2. Owners who held for four years or more sold above cost almost every time.
  3. The median home rented for exactly its projected amount.

Taken together, the data rewards investors who commit to a long-term plan. That means holding for years, keeping cash reserves for vacancies and repairs, and growing a portfolio steadily over time. Going from one door to two spreads the risk of holding just one property and improves the odds of building a strong portfolio.