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The buydown transfers mark-to-market risk from builder’s income statements onto the balance sheets of the buyers who took the subsidized deals, and selectively. A buyer whose 6.65% payment would exceed the DTI threshold can instead qualify at the bought-down 4.9%. The subsidy does not change the preferences of infra-marginal buyers; it changes who can close. This buyer, however, is the one with the least equity cushion, the least refinance flexibility, and the least room to absorb a later shock, such as tax reassessments, insurance repricing (sharpest in Florida, Texas, and Arizona), and dues from homeowners associations.
The risk does not need a downturn to bite; it is priced in at closing. The recorded price and every comp built on it read $426,000, but the price a resale buyer can finance at 6.65%, with no buydown available to them, is closer to the $371,000 the builder netted. That gap is not the home’s value collapsing; it is the distance between the inflated recorded price and the resale-clearing price. The owner does not feel it while living in the house because the rate buy-down delivers an ongoing below-market payment. They feel it on exit.
Trace the exit for the marginal buyer the subsidy pulls in, with the market unchanged. They buy at the recorded $426,000 with 10% down: $42,600 in cash, and the remaining $383,400 is financed. The resale clears at the $371,000, the builder’s true realized net revenue. After roughly 6% ($22,260) a sale carries in commissions and closing costs, that yields $348,740, which is $34,660 short of the loan. The seller must write a check for that $34,660 just to clear the mortgage, and gets none of the $42,600 back. The seller walks away about $77,260 poorer ($42,600 down payment plus $12,400 loan gap plus $22,600 closing cost), without a single point of price decline. Even at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) minimum 3.5% down the loss is $77,260; the difference is the seller now needs to bring $62,350 to the closing. Refinancing offers no escape in either rate environment. The buyer is locked in.
This phenomenon is most visible in the Sunbelt metro area, where we see the most buy-down-driven volume, and where valuations were already stretched, as noted in Zillow ZHVI and Census income data. Austin sits at 5.13x price-to-income, 32% above its pre-2020 norm of 3.90x; Phoenix (4.56x) and Tampa (4.53x) run 30% to 42% above the 3.2 to 3.5x national baseline. A buyer entering at an inflated price there carries the exit risk on top of a high valuation. Builders hold reported margins and equity valuations by pushing that risk onto the households least able to absorb it.
While they aren’t at their absolute worst, mortgage rates remain very close to their one-year high.
They’re about .125% below their 52-week highs, which were seen in late July before we got some favorable economic data.
However, they remain stubbornly high with no real relief in sight.
Let’s break down how they got here and why they remain sticky at these levels.
And how they could finally break this unfriendly trend and move lower again.
Without a doubt, the biggest driver has been the Iranian conflict and the higher oil prices that came with it.
Why? Because before that took place at the end of February, mortgage rates were below 6% for the first time since late 2022.
They were enjoying their best levels in three and a half years!
Then seemingly overnight (but in reality over the course of just one month), they increased to about 6.625%.
That’s a nasty move higher and could only be explained by the geopolitics that nobody saw coming at the time.
I think if you remove that conflict from the equation, mortgage rates would likely be in the low 6s today (or even lower).
They probably wouldn’t be markedly lower than those late February/early March levels, but they certainly wouldn’t be at or near one-year highs.
So if you want major relief, you end that war and hope oil prices come back down.
There was some positive movement this week after the U.S. signaled a move away from actual warfare and into economic sanctions instead.
We’ll see how that goes, as everyday it seems the script changes.
Another big issue at the moment is the amount of government debt, which just recently officially passed the $40 trillion mark for the first time in history.
That means there’s a lot of bonds out there, and with increased supply comes the need for higher yields to attract investors.
This is one reason why we’ve seen yields on government bonds like the 10-year (which acts as a bellwether for 30-year fixed mortgage) hit 52-week highs recently.
They’ve since eased a bit but aren’t far from the high seen in late 2023 (around 5%) when the 30-year fixed climbed to 8%.
Simply put, we need to get our spending under control, balance the budget, and make our debt attractive again to the rest of the world.
If we don’t, it increases the cost of lending for everyone, including those seeking a student loan or a mortgage.
Along those same lines, we’ve got a massive AI buildout that requires a ton of capital.
Instead of paying cash, these tech companies are issuing bonds so they can raise funds and pay for all their expensive datacenters.
Those bonds compete for the same investors that buy things like Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Again, to attract investors, they need to offer higher yields (interest rates) to lure in the buyers.
This puts additional upward pressure on mortgage rates as increased supply leads to higher yields on all fixed-income securities.
As we all know from economics, it’s simple supply and demand. You have too much of something, the price goes down.
To offset the drop in price, the yield goes up and it needs to move ever higher to become attractive.
Limit the supply and the price can go up, and the yield can drop too.
There’s also the matter of inflation, which has proven to be sticky and above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%.
At last glance, it remains above 3%, whether you rely on CPI or the Fed’s preferred PCE index.
Speaking of PCE, it’s due out Wednesday and the consensus is prices up 3.6% from a year ago (+3.3% for core).
While oil has been the scapegoat of late, we’ve yet to really shake the price increases in other categories whether it’s software, tech components, transport, or even housing services inflation.
We got hot inflation reports for April and May, which also coincided with a hot jobs report, which led to the highest mortgage rates in about a year.
Fortunately we’ve had some cooler reports lately that took some of the pressure off, but we’re not out of the woods yet.
Especially with President Trump announcing fresh tariffs on Canada.
I’ll keep it short and sweet and end this with Fed rate expectations, which are hikes or cuts (or doing nothing).
They are driven by the aforementioned reports, whether it’s CPI, PCE, or the monthly jobs report.
While the federal funds rate is an overnight rate (very short duration) and the 30-year fixed mortgage is well, a 30-year loan, there is some influence from the Fed.
The Fed doesn’t set consumer mortgage rates but it does have some say.
If investors expect the Fed to hike, bond yields tend to rise and mortgage rates move higher as well.
If they expect a cut, the opposite happens and mortgage rates tend to come down.
However, this happens before the Fed actually announces its policy decision, and is largely baked in by the time of the FOMC announcement.
There was a while where it appeared the Fed would hike thanks to that hot economic data and the Iran war.
But recent, cooler reports might allow the Fed to avoid another hike, especially if new Fed chair Kevin Warsh can convince the others it’s the right move.
That line of thinking has allowed mortgage rates to step back from their one-year highs, but only marginally.
Until we solve Iran and the inflation comes with it, mortgage rates will have a tough time moving much lower.
The good news is they might be near their top and not necessarily at risk of moving much higher either.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 20 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.
Ocular Therapeutix CEO Dugel sells $233,159 in shares
NuScale Power (SMR -5.50%) is currently the only nuclear energy company in the U.S. approved by regulators to build a small modular reactor, or SMR. To be sure, competition is on the way. Several companies are working through the nuclear regulatory approval process, including Oklo Inc. (OKLO -6.03%), another pure-play SMR developer.
But NuScale is unique in that it is both cleared by regulators to build an SMR system and it already has several major customers lined up, one of which is looking to build the largest SMR system in the world.
Here’s the problem: NuScale investors have been burned before by major customers canceling deals before financial commitments are made. So while NuScale has major customers lined up on paper, there’s no guarantee that this deal pipeline will result in meaningful revenue, or profits for that matter.
Image source: Getty Images.
Given this execution uncertainty, NuScale’s market cap still hovers around $4 billion despite lucrative long-term growth potential. When this uncertainty is lifted, expect the stock price to react strongly. Fortunately for NuScale investors, much of the company’s execution uncertainty could be lifted as soon as this year.
Today’s Change
(-5.50%) $-0.54
Current Price
$9.27
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$9.06 – $10.26
52wk Range
$7.21 – $57.42
Volume
51.8M
Avg Vol
33.3M
Gross Margin
16.03%
NuScale’s biggest customer in its pipeline is the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), a major electric utility in the eastern U.S. The deal is actually being handled mostly by NuScale’s financing partner, ENTRA1. But NuScale is the project partner providing the actual reactors.
In total, the TVA SMR system could be as large as 6 gigawatts. For comparison, the largest SMR system in existence today produces just 210 megawatts from two 105 MWe (megawatt electrical) reactor modules.
TVA signed a deal for the project last September. Importantly, nothing in the agreement was binding. In other words, TVA can pull out at any time. This makes the next major catalyst the signing of a power purchase agreement (PPA). PPAs are typically binding agreements that commit a utility to purchase power from a generation facility at a fixed price, often for years or decades. Signing a PPA ensures the facility’s builders will be paid for their work, clearing the way for construction to begin.
“We’re hopeful that TVA can come across the line at some point later this year,” NuScale’s CFO commented in May, speaking about the potential for a PPA. NuScale expects to move quickly once a deal is finalized. “We’re in a mode right now that as soon as these PPAs are finalized, we’re ready to move. By move, I mean enter into, start to call a position, start the front-end engineering design, and initiate the OEM contracts or negotiations,” NuScale’s CEO added in August.
If a PPA is signed, there should be plenty of upside for NuScale stock relative to today’s prices. I wouldn’t be surprised to see shares surpass their previous 2026 highs of around $20, implying more than 100% in potential upside. That’s how heavily the market seems to be pricing in uncertainty surrounding the deal.
Pricing in that much uncertainty is reasonable given NuScale’s past failures and the relative immaturity of the SMR sector overall. But a PPA would provide critical momentum to NuScale’s struggling stock price, validating its business model and designs in an unprecedented way.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) will release its Q2 earnings after the market close today. NVIDIA is not just a leading AI firm and top chip provider; it is a benchmark for the entire AI sector. Largely fueled by hyperscalers and the race not to be left behind as AI takes over, NVIDIA has been looking for ways to diversify revenue while investing in other tangential firms.
Analysts hold a consensus estimate for top-line revenue of around $91.9 to $92.2 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 97%. Nvidia has guided toward the lower end of that range, but some analysts expect a bigger beat in revenue.
Earnings per Share (EPS) is expected to land around $2.08 a share, almost double from the same quarter last year.
Gross margin is expected to be flat, and the company has guided around 75%.
Full-year revenue has a consensus estimate in the high $380 billion–$390 billion range.
As for analysts, below are some of their pre-earnings expectations:
Baird has a $500 price target.
If Nvidia disappoints, tomorrow could be a tough day for markets. If it tops expectations, this will be bullish for the AI sector and help lift markets in general.
The earnings call is scheduled for 5 PM ET.
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As if the affordability crisis weren’t tough enough for cash-strapped tenants, corporate landlords’ “junk fees,” heaped on top of “base rents,” have sparked the ire of the FTC, which recently issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM), according to The Guardian, resulting in possible legal action.
The increased frustration among tenants and lawmakers with corporate landlords can be a win for smaller landlords, who rarely add extra fees on top of the rental amount quoted in a lease.
Federal regulators and state attorneys general have initiated a nationwide crackdown on extra, mandatory charges in residential leasing. These include technology add-ons, trash pick-ups, utility processing surcharges, and nonrefundable administrative fees, among others.
The Guardian reported that hundreds of tenants across the U.S. recently submitted public testimony to federal agencies describing how unexpected lease surcharges have inflated rental costs. During public comment proceedings in April, Seattle resident Farah Momin testified:
“The rental housing market is one where consumers have little power. Landlords can impose fees through take-it-or-leave-it lease terms, and the cost/disruption of moving means that tenants may absorb unfair charges rather than leave.”
With midterm elections around the corner, the cost of housing is a big issue and has picked up steam in legislative circles, with many U.S. states advancing bills designed to restrict institutional ownership models and cap ancillary fee structures in both multifamily and single-family housing markets, as a tracking map from Newsweek shows.
“Rent is already too high, but corporate landlords are adding hidden junk fees that make housing even less affordable,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a letter to the FTC in April. “Renters deserve to know the true cost of housing upfront, not after they have already committed their time and money. We are urging the FTC to take action so families can make informed decisions and avoid deceptive pricing.”
James emphasized “bait-and-switch” pricing tactics, in which advertised rents could be misleading and mandatory fees were disclosed only late in the application process or after a tenant signed a lease.
While Wall Street-funded REITs keep the pressure on asset managers to increase revenue, small investors with no such oversight or inclinations have a chance to slip in and appeal to weary renters, tired of being shocked every time they review their rental statement.
“It’s uncommon to see Wall Street buy entire neighborhoods,” Jeff Holzmann, COO of Dallas-based real estate investment firm RREAF Holdings, told Realtor.com. “But the reality is, when your home is owned by a Wall Street company, what happens is it becomes someone else’s product. When there’s a board yelling at a CEO to make more money, the only way to do it is to raise the rent.”
Wall Street’s drive for relentless rent increases was highlighted in a recent TCD/Yahoo! Finance article, which explained that these numbers are often baked into lenders’ loan approvals before the building has even been purchased. The article stated that “buyers who forecast the biggest increases can qualify for the most borrowing.”
As Time explained, “If current tenants’ wages cannot keep pace with that plan, something has to give: Either tenants pay more than they can afford, or they are pushed out so someone who can pay more can take their place.”
In an April 15th letter addressed to the FTC, the National Apartment Association said:
”By separating certain services and amenities from base rent, residents can choose the options that best fit their needs and budgets, rather than paying for a one-size-fits-all package. These fees can cover a broad spectrum of amenities, services, and operational activities. While our industry fully supports fee transparency, we caution against policies that would limit or prohibit the recovery of legitimate business expenses. Restrictions on reasonable fees create practical barriers, inflate base housing costs, and reduce access to valued resident services.”
Smaller landlords tend to structure their pricing very differently from large corporations. Keeping an all-inclusive linear structure, without any surprise line items, helps attract and retain quality tenants, reducing tenant turnover and all associated maintenance expenses.
Fast responses and fostering a personable, noncombative relationship with tenants softens the rental experience, whereas a corporate management structure can feel overbearing and impersonal.
Being completely transparent from the start will make potential tenants more inclined to schedule a viewing. Stating that rent includes standard amenities and excludes hidden monthly move-in charges, administrative costs, or software fees sets your rental apart from nearby corporate competitors.
This is where some financially stretched small landlords suffer. By scheduling ongoing upgrades and maintenance, such as HVAC upgrades/filter changes, low-flow plumbing fixtures, regular roof inspections, gutter cleaning, and landscaping, you maintain the asset’s quality while reassuring tenants that you, the landlord, are on top of things. It also makes them more inclined to agree to a gradual increase in fair market rent upon renewal.
AI and cloud-based software have helped make property management more efficient, but there is usually a cost associated with using property management software and storing documents in the cloud. Corporate landlords often transfer these costs to the tenant.
Differentiate yourself by not doing this. Call it the cost of doing business—and keeping your tenants.
While Wall Street funds face financial pressures from investors demanding a high stock price, small landlords face pressure from escalating expenses, specifically taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs, as well as mortgage payments if they have recently bought or refinanced. Tenants also face pressure due to the rapid cost of living increases—so it’s not as if small landlords can ignore the pressure to increase revenue.
However, making smart decisions, particularly by making a large down payment or buying with cash, and then meticulously staying on top of repairs and customer service and fostering a cordial business relationship with your tenants is essential. Stay away from tactics that nickel-and-dime residents for short-term gain at the expense of long-term stability.
Luminate is launching a framework to identify and measure AI-generated music.
The data company, whose numbers power Billboard’s charts, says its CONNECT platform “can now flag AI-generated songs and artists worldwide,” with the labels reaching customers and partners later this year.
Those labels are not visible in CONNECT yet.
“We’ve built the capability in our platform and identified thousands of AI-generated items in our database, but we have not yet made AI classification visible to users,” Luminate said in an FAQ published alongside Tuesday’s (August 25) announcement.
Songs and recordings confirmed as fully AI-created will carry an AI Generated label.
Luminate said flagged content will also come with a dedicated review process for artists and labels to respond to incorrect tags.
“WE’VE BUILT THE CAPABILITY IN OUR PLATFORM AND IDENTIFIED THOUSANDS OF AI-GENERATED ITEMS IN OUR DATABASE, BUT WE HAVE NOT YET MADE AI CLASSIFICATION VISIBLE TO USERS.”
LUMINATE
The FAQ sets out two further tags: AI, for an artist confirmed as fully AI-generated, and Human, for an artist confirmed not to be.
The Human tag will only go to artists individually cleared by Luminate’s screening process, the company said, not by default.
An absent label does not confirm a track is human-made, Luminate said, because it has not run its full database through the process.
Screening prioritizes artists and songs from 2023 or later with high streaming activity.
“By focusing on the top of the market, we’re able to identify the AI content with the greatest impact,” Luminate said.
“GREATER VISIBILITY IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTANDING BROADER TRENDS, ASSESSING THE RISK OF FRAUD AND MAKING INFORMED DECISIONS.”
ROB JONAS, LUMINATE
Luminate CEO Rob Jonas said: “The rapid growth of AI-generated music has outpaced the industry’s ability to consistently identify it and measure its impact.
“Greater visibility is critical to understanding broader trends, assessing the risk of fraud and making informed decisions.
“Luminate has always been the entertainment business’s source of truth, and tracking AI-generated music with the same rigor we apply to every other category is core to our mission.”
Luminate added: “Not all AI music raises concerns, but its rapid growth has made it harder to track and easier to exploit.”
Luminate’s framework has three parts.
The first is Luminate’s own identification technology, which the announcement said continuously analyzes streaming data and metadata alongside audio matching tools.
The FAQ describes that as a two-stage process, beginning with a system built by Luminate Data Science “to analyze artists and songs added to CONNECT and flag items with a high potential to be AI-created.”
“We then use audio signature matching technology to confirm those initial flags and apply AI labels,” Luminate said.
The second is self-labeled streaming data from the DSPs, which Luminate said it will ingest through existing partnerships as platforms roll out their own detection tools.
The third is attribution data taken directly from AI music companies as tracks are generated, before they reach a DSP.
Luminate said the framework will serve as “the global clearing house for AI music.”
The release said Luminate is “collaborating with the major DSPs and AI music companies.”
The FAQ, though, said Luminate does not yet incorporate AI labels from streaming platforms, and the framework puts the company only “in discussion” with AI music companies.
Jonas conceded the point in the release, saying: “This is a starting point.
“No single organization can address this challenge alone; the industry needs a collaborative approach to more accurately understand, track and measure AI-generated music.”
On July 29, a coalition of the three majors and independents including Believe, BMG, Concord, and HYBE Corp. proposed principles to keep AI-made recordings off official charts unless the generative AI service used was authorized and lawful, the track is “substantially human made,” and it raises no stream or chart manipulation concerns.
IFPI began applying those principles across its own charts the following day, and said it was working to extend them to more than 20 further chart programs, including Australia’s ARIA Charts, France’s SNEP Charts, and South Korea’s Circle Chart.
ARIA moved on the same day as Luminate’s announcement.
It updated its Charts Code of Practice on August 25 to bar wholly AI-generated tracks from the ARIA Charts and Awards, applying IFPI’s principles.
It takes effect with the chart dated Monday (August 31), published Friday (August 28), and artists can appeal.
ARIA CEO Annabelle Herd said: “Artists already use AI tools in their work, the Charts can and should evolve to keep room for that, but music generated wholesale by services built on artists’ recordings is a different matter.”
ARIA acted after scrutiny of Queensland DJ and producer Josh Fawaz’s cover of Madonna’s Like a Prayer, which peaked at No. 2 in May on ARIA’s Top 20 Australian Singles chart and has spent 16 weeks on it.
Fawaz later updated the track’s credits to disclose AI-generated vocals and drums.
ARIA has since told CBC News that the track does not meet the new eligibility requirements “based on information provided by the artist.”
Billboard moved on August 25 too, committing to identify which songs on its charts and in its editorial coverage use AI.
Luminate has supplied the data behind those charts for over 30 years, according to the company.
Billboard said it was optimistic about “new and first-to-market tools and initiatives that will tag and identify AI-created songs,” naming “the recent announcement from Luminate regarding its proprietary AI detection program.”
Deezer, though, has been detecting and tagging AI music at the platform level since 2025, and Billboard has used Deezer’s tool to determine which chart songs are AI-generated, as MBW has reported.
In its statement, Billboard Co-Chief Content Officer Jason Lipshutz said: “Although the ways in which AI informs and interacts with modern music are changing on a daily basis, we are committed to working alongside all industry parties allowing us to make clear, well-informed decisions across our platforms, now and moving forward.”
Billboard committed to identification and labeling, not to a chart-eligibility rule of the kind ARIA and IFPI have adopted.
Luminate did not say whether its flags will govern eligibility.
Luminate describes itself in the announcement as “an independently operated company, a subsidiary of PME TopCo., a joint venture between Penske Media Corporation and Eldridge.”
Deezer said in July that it took in close to 90,000 fully AI-generated tracks a day in June – more than half of everything newly delivered to it on peak days.
Apple Music said on August 20 that it will label songs materially generated using AI.
Spotify said on August 11 that it will badge artist profiles built around AI-generated identities as AI Personas from mid-September, and will keep their music out of editorial and algorithmic recommendations by default.Music Business Worldwide
