Machine learning is useful because heat damage is unlikely to follow one stable, linear relationship across companies. A small increase in temperature may have little effect until an operating threshold is reached. Beyond that point, heat can reduce productivity and equipment efficiency, increase cooling needs, or constrain production.

The effect can also differ widely across companies facing similar weather. An automated plant with modern cooling and greater operational flexibility may continue operating. A labor-intensive business with older equipment and greater worker exposure to heat may experience a sharp loss of output. Averaging the two can make the overall effect appear modest even when one company faces a material financial loss.

Machine learning can search for these threshold effects and differences across firms more effectively than a model built around one average relationship. A May 2026 working paper by Christian Breitung, Gerard Hoberg, and Sebastian Müller, “Machine Learning the Impact of Climate Change on Firms Worldwide,” illustrates how a machine-learning framework can capture those differences. Their models estimate how abnormal seasonal temperature and precipitation affect sales, efficiency, profitability, and costs, with effects varying widely across firms. The adverse effects are concentrated in more exposed industries, labor-intensive and older firms, and companies operating in less developed regions.

Investors therefore need what could be called a company’s “heat-response function”: an estimate of how production, costs, margins, and cash flow change once temperatures exceed thresholds that matter to its operations. Absent that relationship, investors do not have a valuation input.

Right now, frozen pipes probably aren’t on your radar. But your insurance company is already thinking about them.

Cold snaps don’t follow your calendar. One hard freeze on a night your tenant is out of town, or during a two-week gap between leases, and a small crack in a supply line can soak your property before anyone notices.

And the bill isn’t small. State Farm reports that from 2024 through June 2025, it paid more than $628 million on over 20,000 freeze-related water damage claims. The average payout was more than $30,000. That’s one insurer, and an average that high means some claims came in bigger.

So here’s the question most landlords never ask: What happens if your insurer decides you didn’t do enough to prevent the damage? 

Many property policies treat winter prep as more than good maintenance. In certain situations, it’s a condition of coverage. Skip it, and a claim you assumed was covered can get denied.

We’ll walk through the policy language that trips up property owners, the winterization steps that actually matter, and how to make sure your landlord insurance coverage holds up when the temperature drops.

This winter, make sure your first freeze isn’t your most expensive one.

The Winter Clause Most Landlords Never Read

Let’s start with the fine print, because this is where a lot of winter claims are won or lost. Many property insurance policies include what’s called a freezing exclusion. The wording varies by carrier, but most property policies won’t pay for damage from frozen household systems unless you used reasonable care to either keep the heat on or shut off the water and drain the system. Many versions apply that rule when the property is vacant, unoccupied, or under construction.

Read that again: Whether you’re covered depends on something you did or didn’t do before the pipe burst.

And some policies don’t limit that condition to vacant properties at all. They exclude freeze damage unless you maintained heat or drained the plumbing and shut off the water.

What this looks like in real life

During the December 2022 freeze in Texas, a commercial building owner had turned off the heat while the property was being renovated. He didn’t drain the pipes or shut off the water before leaving for Christmas; a pipe froze, burst, and flooded the building.

State Farm denied the claim under its freezing exclusion. The dispute went to federal court, and the court sided with the insurer.

That result isn’t unusual. Courts have generally found freezing exclusions clear and enforceable.

Now think about how often rental properties are in that exact situation:

• A unit sitting empty between tenants
• A rehab with the utilities turned down
• A short-term rental with no bookings for a week in January

Sound familiar?

Your action step

Before the first cold front, pull your full policy, not just the declarations page, and search for three words: freezing, vacant, and unoccupied. Then write down:

• What your policy requires to keep freeze damage covered
• How it defines “vacant” and “unoccupied,” since the two terms often mean different things
• Whether any vacancy limits apply to your properties right now

If the language is confusing, ask your agent to explain it in plain English. It’s a much easier conversation to have now than after a claim.

Pipes and Plumbing: Your Biggest Winter Risk

If you only have time to winterize one system, make it your plumbing.

Water damage and freezing aren’t rare events. Insurance Information Institute data cited by This Old House shows that about 22.6% of home insurance claims from 2019 to 2023 involved water damage or freezing. The average claim was $15,400, and roughly 1 in every 67 insured homes filed one each year. Multiply that across a portfolio, and the odds stop feeling abstract.

The good news? Most freeze damage is preventable with a few hours of work and some inexpensive supplies.

Start outside

Exterior plumbing is the most exposed, so start there:

• Disconnect every garden hose: Even frost-proof faucets can freeze and burst when a hose is left attached.
• Shut off and drain outdoor spigots, using the interior valve if you have one.
• Blow out irrigation lines before the ground freezes, or hire a pro to do it.

Then work inside

Next, look for pipes in the coldest parts of the property:

• Insulate exposed pipes in crawlspaces, garages, attics, and along exterior walls.
• Seal drafts near pipes, like gaps where lines come in through the foundation.
• Give tenants a cold snap plan: Keep the heat at 55°F or higher, open sink cabinets on exterior walls, and let faucets drip on the coldest nights.

Know where the water stops

Here’s a question to ask yourself: If a pipe bursts at 2 a.m., does your tenant know how to shut off the water?

Find the main shutoff, label it, and show tenants where it is. Every minute the water keeps running adds to the damage.

Add an early warning system

Smart thermostats and water leak sensors are like insurance for your insurance. They can alert you when the indoor temperature drops or water shows up where it shouldn’t, even if you’re hundreds of miles away.

An inexpensive sensor that catches a leak in minutes can keep a small problem from turning into a months-long repair.

Ice Dams, Roofs, and the “Neglect” Denial

Frozen pipes get most of the attention. But winter has another way to leave you with the bill: the neglect denial.

Most property policies are designed for damage that’s sudden and accidental, like a burst pipe or a tree limb through the roof. Damage that builds slowly because something wasn’t maintained is a different story. Claims can be denied when water damage is blamed on a lack of upkeep, and a roof leak that gets worse over time may not be covered.

Winter makes those slow problems show up fast.

How ice dams form

Ice dams form when melting snow refreezes at the edge of the roof. Water pools behind that ridge of ice and can work its way under the shingles. The result is leaks that damage walls, ceilings, and insulation and can lead to mold.

And the ice dam usually isn’t the root problem. It’s a sign that heat is escaping into the attic or that the gutters can’t drain.

Your pre-winter roof plan

• Clean gutters and downspouts so melting snow has somewhere to go.
• Check attic insulation and ventilation: State Farm recommends ventilating eaves and ridges, sealing attic hatches, and adding insulation to the attic floor.
• Inspect the roof and flashing for missing shingles, gaps, or rust before the first snowfall.
• Look at the ceilings inside for stains that could point to an existing leak.

Document everything

If you file a claim this winter, the adjuster may want to know one thing: Was this property maintained?

Make that easy to prove. Take dated photos of your gutters, roof, attic, and plumbing work. Keep invoices from plumbers, roofers, and HVAC techs in one folder for each property. A few minutes of photos today could help get your claim paid later.

Vacant Units and Winter Liability

Remember the freezing exclusion from earlier? Vacant units are where it matters most. 

An empty rental in winter is a perfect storm. No one is there to notice the heat went out or to spot a leak. And depending on your policy, the vacancy itself may change what’s covered.

Your vacant unit playbook

For every empty unit, pick one of these two paths and stick with it:

1. Keep the heat on: Keep the utilities in your name during turnover, set the thermostat to a safe minimum, and use a smart thermostat to confirm it holds.
2. Shut off the water and drain: Turn off the main water supply and drain the lines and appliances. One caution: Shutting off the water also disables fire sprinklers, so talk to a plumber first if your property has them.

Whichever path you choose, schedule in-person checks and log each visit with photos. Also ask your agent how long a unit can sit empty before your coverage changes.

Winter liability doesn’t take a day off

Occupied properties have their own winter risks, and those are more about people than pipes:

• Snow and ice removal: State in your lease who clears walkways, steps, and driveways. Check local rules too, because landlord responsibilities vary by city and state.
• Heating safety: Schedule an annual furnace service, and have any fireplaces and chimneys inspected before tenants light the first fire.
• Smoke and CO detectors: Test every detector and replace the batteries before the heating season starts.

An icy step or a heating problem can turn into a liability claim quickly. Winterizing protects the building, the people living in it, and your business.

Your Pre-Freeze Insurance Check

So you’ve winterized the pipes, cleaned the gutters, and made a plan for vacant units. That takes care of the physical side of winter risk.

Even a well-prepared property can still take a hit, though. A deep freeze can outlast a furnace. A tenant can leave a window cracked while they’re away for a week. That’s where your insurance policy comes in.

Winterization lowers the odds of a loss. Your policy decides who pays when one happens.

Too many landlords learn that their coverage doesn’t fit their rental only after the damage is done. Before temperatures drop, get out your policy and ask your agent these five questions:

1. What does my policy require to keep freeze damage covered? Do I need to maintain heat, drain the plumbing, or both?
2. How does my policy define “vacant” and “unoccupied”? How long can a unit sit empty before my coverage changes?
3. Am I covered for water backup from sewers or drains?
4. What’s my deductible for water damage, and has it changed since my last renewal?
5. Are my liability limits high enough for a serious slip-and-fall claim?

If the answers are vague or you don’t like what you hear, it’s time to compare your options.

Where Steadily fits in

Steadily offers landlord insurance built for rental property investors, and you don’t need days of back-and-forth to find out what coverage would cost. You can get a quote online in minutes, without making a phone call.

That speed matters in the fall. Instead of pushing your insurance review past the first freeze, you can compare coverage for your rental before your coffee gets cold.

Keep in mind that whether a specific loss is covered always depends on the facts and the terms of your actual policy. That’s exactly why you should review your coverage before winter.

Don’t Wait for the First Freeze

Winter will show up whether your rental is ready or not. The landlords who come out ahead get both the property and the insurance policy ready first.

So take five minutes this week and get your free landlord insurance quote from Steadily to make sure your coverage is ready for winter.

The best time to check your coverage is before you need it.