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April inflation shoots 3.8% higher on surging prices from war in Iran



U.S. consumer prices climbed sharply again last month as the 10-week war with Iran pushed energy prices higher.

The Labor Department’s consumer price index rose 3.8% from April 2025, according to data released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, April prices rose 0.6% from March as gasoline prices rose 5.4% during the month; the month-over-month gain was down from 0.9% increase from February to March.

Labor Department figures showed that gasoline prices are up more than 28% compared to a year ago. AAA says the average gallon of gasoline costs motorists more than $4.50 a gallon, about 44% more than it cost last year at this time.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called consumer core prices rose 0.4% last month from March and 2.8% from April 2025, relatively modest readings that suggest the energy price burst isn’t spilling over much yet into other prices.

Grocery prices rose 0.7% from March to April, as meat prices rose, after falling slightly the month before.

Inflation had been dropping more or less steadily since peaking with a 9.1% year-over-year spike in prices in June 2022, a surge caused by supply chain bottlenecks at the end of COVID-19 lockdowns and an energy price shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Then, the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and Tehran responded by shutting off access to the Gulf of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. Energy prices rocketed in response.

The Fed, which had been expected to cut its benchmark interest rates in 2026, has turned cautious as it waits to see how long conflict lasts and whether higher energy prices spill over into other products and cause a broader inflationary outbreak.

President Donald Trump has lambasted the Fed and its outgoing chair, Jerome Powell, for refusing to slash rates to boost the economy. Kevin Warsh, the president’s hand-picked choice to succeed Powell, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate this week; but it’s unclear whether Warsh would pursue lower rates given the uncertainties arising from the war — or whether he could persuade his colleagues on the Fed’s rate-setting committee to go along if he tried.

Americans are getting squeezed by gasoline prices that have shot past $4.50 a gallon. Some companies are also starting to feel the pain. For example, Whirlpool, which makes KitchenAid and Maytag appliances, reported last week that revenue dropped nearly 10% in its most recent quarter and said that the war has caused a “recession-level industry decline″ that has undermined consumer confidence.

Mortgage Rates Doing What They Do Best in May: Rise


Welp, the month of May is fully in swing and mortgage rates are doing what they normally do; go up!

Despite spring being peak home buying season, mortgage rates are often the most expensive during this time of the year.

This is historically speaking and can vary from year to year, but so far it’s looking to be on trend.

Driving rates higher lately has been the ongoing war in Iran coupled with some warmer-than-expected jobs data.

If it continues, expect a re-test of recent highs for the 30-year fixed mortgage and possibly a 7-handle.

Mortgage Rates Continue to Be Under Pressure

Lately, mortgage rates have been under a lot of pressure thanks to the Iranian conflict.

Without it, mortgage rates were at their best levels in about 3.5 years, or since the summer of 2022.

That was the same year the 30-year fixed was still in the low-3s, before QE ended and the Fed began hiking rates.

So the fact that we were that low was pretty darn good all things considered.

Problem now is we’ve started another war and Iran doesn’t look ready to make a deal anytime soon.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is choked off and that’s leading to really expensive oil, which affects prices on everything.

That all leads to higher inflation, which combined with hotter labor numbers of late, puts upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Simply put, hot economy = higher mortgage rates, all else equal.

The end result is a 30-year fixed back around 6.50% instead of being sub-6% as it was at the end of February.

What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?

I personally see them going higher in the short-term, on the basis that the Iranian conflict is dragged out.

We keep hearing rumblings of a peace deal or some sort of resolution, but then we’re told the two sides are far apart and will never go for X, Y, and Z offer.

As such, the impasse continues and it’s hard to see a quick and painless way out of it.

Eventually that hits the inflation numbers, and bonds (and mortgage rates) don’t like inflation so they must go up.

At the same time, labor continues to show resiliency despite all the warnings that AI will take all of our jobs.

Assuming this transpires, the 30-year fixed, already around 6.50%, climbs that to recent highs of 6.625% and beyond, perhaps 6.75% or even 6.875%.

Does it go all the way to 7% again? I sure hope not as the spring home buying season already appears to be a dud with existing home sales up just 0.2% in April from March and flat from a year earlier.

In other words, more of the same 30-year lows for home sales, despite many thinking 2026 would be the turnaround year.

And the housing market can’t take another gut-punch as it already appears to be running on fumes with affordability so poor.

The alternative scenario is a peace deal is reached, labor isn’t so hot all of a sudden, and a new-look Fed led by Kevin Warsh attempts to resume rate cuts.

That would be the way to get mortgage rates back to their winning ways and sub-6% again, though it wouldn’t happen until after the traditional spring home buying season.

But it could still unfold before the midterms and give Trump something to boast about, as getting mortgage rates low again was a key policy goal.

(photo: FutUndBeidl)

Colin Robertson
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[Ends 5/12] Chase Sapphire Reserve Partners With Whoop Wellness For Free One-Year Subscription ($359 Statement Credit)


The Offer

Direct Link to offer

Chase has a new offer for Whoop wellness brand to rebate their subscription:

  • Activate the Chase Offer on your Sapphire Reserve card: Earn $359 cash back on your WHOOP Life membership purchase when you spend $359 or more, including taxes and after any discounts.

There’s a similar offer on the Sapphire Preferred card, but only $100 back after $149 spend. Offer not available on Sapphire Reserve for Business.

The Fine Print

  • Offer expires 5/12/2026
  • Offer valid one time only.
  • Offer only valid on purchase made directly with the merchant.
  • Offer valid online only at WHOOP.com.
  • Offer not valid on purchase made using third-party services, delivery services, or a third-party payment account (e.g., buy now pay later).
  • Offer only valid on U.S. purchase.
  • It is possible that the merchant may split your purchase into multiple transactions.
  • Offer redemption awarded as statement credit on the first qualifying transaction amount.
  • Payment must be made on or before 5/12/2026.

Our Verdict

Along with the subscription you’ll get the band free, so this basically gets you one year of Life membership tier completely free. Hopefully they’ll renew the deal in a year; for now, it’s just one year free – set yourself a reminder to cancel before renewal. 

  • You can find and share referral codes for Whoop on this dedicated page. Do not share in the comments below.
  • You will be on the hook for the sales tax on the subscription (if applicable), and so I’m debating whether to sign up. People mention promo codes that give $29.90 off (I believe these are referral codes), but be sure that your final charge is $359 for the statement credit to trigger.
  • If you have $29+ in sales tax, adding the promo code should be able to get the costs down, but for most states the sales tax are not high enough for this to work. You can also add $16.99 for expedited shipping and that should count; others mention seeing an $8.99 shipping fee which should count. Play around with the numbers and see what you can get to work for you. Some mention adding accessories; that might work as well to trigger the credit, YMMV.
  • Another note: the purchase is HSA/FSA eligible, and some people might be interested in using up FSA money that way. 
  • Someone shared this ID.ME link for $25 back on the subscription purchase. 
  • Update: a report indicates that the statement credit works when buying clothing from Whoop, so that can be an option to try if you don’t aren’t interested in the health subscription. 

Why Leaders Should Let Minor Mistakes Slide


New research finds that including small slip-ups in performance reviews can drive employees to gossip, disengage, or even sabotage the company.

BUY These 3 Stocks & DON"T STOP



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Conversations with Frank Fabozzi, CFA, Featuring Sue Brake


How can investment professionals improve decision-making in increasingly complex and uncertain markets?

In this episode of Conversations with Frank Fabozzi, CFA, Susan Brake offers practical perspectives on the total portfolio approach, governance, and the evolving role of AI in investment decision-making.

Key Discussion Points:

  • Rethinking the total portfolio approach Where it works, and where firms get it wrong
  • What actually drives better investment decisions Beyond structure, models, and collaboration
  • Using AI in practice How the role of the investment professional is changing
  • Seeing risk through a systems lens Beyond traditional portfolio models
  • Governance as a performance lever Why decision processes matter more than expected

Retirees Who Delay Social Security Get 1 Hidden Advantage


There’s a reason financial experts often encourage retirees to delay claiming Social Security if they can afford to wait. Waiting to file for benefits could boost your monthly checks for life.

You can claim Social Security at any age once you turn 62. If you wait until full retirement age, which is 67 if you were born in 1960 or later, you’ll get your monthly benefits without a reduction.

Image source: Getty Images.

However, if you delay Social Security past full retirement age, your benefits get boosted 8% for every year you wait, until you turn 70. That boost then stays in effect for the rest of your life.

But a larger monthly check isn’t the only upside of waiting. There’s another key perk that many retirees overlook.

Bigger Social Security checks lead to larger COLAs

Each year, Social Security benefits are eligible for a cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. The purpose of COLAs is to help benefits keep up with inflation.

But COLAs aren’t flat dollar amounts. Rather, they’re percentage-based. This year, for example, Social Security benefits rose 2.8%.

What this means is that the larger your monthly benefits are to begin with, the more valuable every single COLA that comes through should be for you. So if you delay Social Security, you can set yourself up with not just larger benefits, but larger raises from year to year.

For example, say you’re entitled to $2,000 a month in Social Security at 67. If you wait until age 70 to file for benefits, you’ll get $2,480 a month instead.

Now, let’s say there’s a 3% COLA the following year. For a $2,000 benefit, you’re looking at a $60 raise. For a $2,480 benefit, you’re looking at an extra $74.40.

That gap may not sound like much initially. But over time, larger COLAs could help your financial situation immensely.

Lock in that stronger inflation protection

The value of larger Social Security COLAs can become more evident during periods of rampant inflation. While current inflation levels aren’t dreadful, a few years back, they were huge.

Larger COLAs could give you more spending leeway during times when costs are rising rapidly. So it pays to consider this peripheral benefit of delaying your Social Security claim.

Of course, delaying Social Security isn’t right for everyone. If you have health issues that are likely to shorten your lifespan, an earlier claim could be a better financial choice. If you’re unable to work and need money, you may not be able to wait until 70 to sign up for Social Security.

But if you have the option to wait and it makes sense for your financial situation, the combination of larger monthly checks and bigger lifetime COLAs could give you a serious long-term advantage.

Germany’s Commerzbank To Cut 3,000 Jobs As It Accelerates AI Investment


Germany’s second-largest lender, Commerzbank, has announced a significant workforce reduction of up to 3,000 positions as it accelerates efforts to strengthen its financial performance and maintain its independence amid mounting pressure from an Italian rival. The move forms part of a broader overhaul designed to deliver sharper profitability while embracing emerging technologies, including a substantial commitment to artificial intelligence.

The job reductions represent the latest phase in a series of efficiency drives. Earlier this decade, the Frankfurt-based bank already eliminated around 10,000 roles—roughly one-third of its domestic workforce—and followed up last year with plans for nearly 4,000 more cuts.

Commerzbank currently employs about 40,000 staff members globally, with roughly 25,000 based in Germany.

Management has stressed that the latest reductions will be handled responsibly, with some new hires expected in areas focused on operational improvements. In parallel, the bank intends to allocate €600 million toward artificial intelligence initiatives between 2026 and 2030.

Executives anticipate this technology push will generate annual cost savings of around €500 million by the end of the decade, potentially influencing future hiring decisions as AI capabilities evolve.

These steps coincide with upward revisions to the bank’s medium-term financial goals. Commerzbank now projects revenue of €15 billion in 2028, an increase from its previous forecast of €14.2 billion.

It also aims for a net profit of €4.6 billion that year, up from the earlier target of €4.2 billion. Additional improvements include a better cost-to-income ratio—targeted at 46 percent in 2028 and 41 percent by 2030—and a net return on equity approaching 17 percent by 2028.

For the current year, the lender has lifted its expected net result to €3.4 billion. The changes come alongside €450 million in anticipated restructuring expenses tied to the workforce adjustments.

The timing of the announcement underscores Commerzbank’s determination to chart its own course.

Italy’s UniCredit, which has built a stake of nearly 30 percent and become the bank’s largest shareholder, formally launched a hostile takeover bid valued at approximately €35-37 billion earlier this week.

That offer sits below current market valuations and has drawn sharp criticism from Commerzbank’s leadership.

Chief Executive Bettina Orlopp highlighted fundamental differences in strategic vision, describing UniCredit’s approach as vague and reliant on narratives that undermine the German bank’s achievements. UniCredit’s own restructuring blueprint had envisioned far deeper cuts—potentially 7,000 positions across the combined entity.

The proposed merger has sparked intense debate in Germany, where Commerzbank plays a vital role financing the country’s influential small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly rejected the bid, labeling it aggressive and damaging to trust. Berlin retains a roughly 12 percent ownership stake from the 2008 financial crisis bailout, and some officials have floated ideas for increasing that holding to safeguard national interests.

Union representatives have voiced similar concerns, warning that foreign control could jeopardize thousands more jobs. Commerzbank’s first-quarter results provided a positive backdrop for the strategy shift.

Net profit climbed 9.5 percent to €913 million, surpassing analyst expectations and driven by disciplined cost management and strong commission income amid volatile markets. By demonstrating stronger standalone prospects through technology investment and leaner operations, the bank hopes to persuade shareholders that independence remains the superior path forward in an era of cross-border banking consolidation.



The $6.6 Billion Payday: Why Hundreds of OpenAI Employees Just Became Millionaires



Around 75 of the startup’s early employees walked away with $30 million last October. The average payout was $11 million.

Smaller banks are relying more on fees as lending income weakens: DBRS




A Morningstar DBRS report says medium-sized banks and credit unions are expanding into areas like wealth management, payments and credit cards as lower interest rates and economic uncertainty pressure traditional lending income.