Sellers with substantial equity have largely declined to cut prices enough to revive buyer participation at scale, so recorded sale prices in closed transactions have held firmer than underlying demand conditions might suggest.
A divided housing market beneath the headline
The markets forecast to see the strongest price growth are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest. Rockford, IL leads the 324-MSA forecast at 4.7% projected appreciation, followed by Norwich-New London-Willimantic, CT (4.3%), and Hartford, CT; Racine, WI; and Erie, PA (each at 4.0%).
Binghamton, NY; Lancaster, PA; Milwaukee, WI; South Bend, IN; and Reading, PA complete the top ten, with gains ranging from 3.5% to 4.7%. These markets share favorable income-to-price dynamics and supply conditions that have not been overwhelmed by inventory growth.
Texas dominates the bottom of the forecast. Six of the ten weakest-performing markets are in the state — Corpus Christi at -1.1%, Tyler at -1.0%, Sherman-Denison at -0.9%, Austin at -0.9%, Houston at -0.7%, and San Antonio at -0.5%.
Stockton, CA (-1.0%), Boulder, CO (-0.5%), Colorado Springs, CO (-0.5%), and Tucson, AZ (-0.5%) also appear among the underperformers.
