While there was no official comment from Aramco, the kingdom’s energy ministry confirmed the strike had caused a limited fire and no injuries, though it was unclear whether the building in the eastern city of Dhahran had been hit directly by a missile or by falling debris.
Authorities also reported drones and missiles were intercepted and destroyed near the capital, Riyadh, and the country’s southern region.
As the kingdom’s conflict with the Iran-backed Houthis intensifies, questions are mounting over whether its much-vaunted Vision 2030 is increasingly out of reach.
For a country whose future hinges on diversifying away from oil and attracting foreign investment to help it do so, the spillover effects of the conflict pose a significant setback to its ambitions.
“The events of recent weeks are serious,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman told the World Petroleum Energy Congress in Riyadh on Monday. “Our response must be equally serious while remaining focused on the decades ahead; Vision 2030 must continue, investment must continue.”
Exactly what a “serious response” entails remains unclear, but what is immediately apparent is that investor sentiment has already been rattled.
The CEOs of Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and ExxonMobil had all been due to attend this week’s WPEC but are conspicuous by their absence.
I was due to travel to Jeddah this week for interviews and an event, but, like many others, plans were canceled given the security situation.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has been moved between heavily guarded palaces fitted with bunkers by a handpicked security team.
During the course of the last week, many of the kingdom’s most strategic assets have become high-profile targets. Most notably, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh suffered four attacks in the space of five days. The Saturday attack marked the deadliest attack on Saudi soil in more than a decade, killing 13 people and injuring 309.
James Reeve, a Saudi macro consultant who formerly worked as a senior director for the Saudi Public Investment Fund, told me that foreign investments already made in Saudi are unlikely to be reversed in the near term.
“I think more troubling for the Vision 2030 story is the impact on new FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows,” said Reeve.
“For foreign firms weighing up significant capital investments in the Kingdom, the images of missiles falling apparently unhindered on the capital’s airport will be shocking and difficult to forget. Those contemplating investments in tourist infrastructure will also have to weigh the impact on tourism inflows.”
On Monday, Saudi authorities extended the airport’s closure until Saturday, and regional carriers have temporarily suspended flights.
Meanwhile, Air France-KLM has suspended flights to Riyadh until 31 October and Delta Air Lines has delayed planned services from Atlanta to Riyadh, initially due to start on October 23, until March 2027.
“In the short term, this is clearly damaging,” Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security analyst at King’s College London, told me.
“The important effect is not simply physical damage to an airport or the cancellation of individual flights. It is the return of a security premium to doing business in Saudi Arabia. The immediate consequences are likely to be delayed investment decisions, higher required returns, and greater dependence on state capital.”
As one of the principal gateways into the Saudi capital and a foundation stone of the entire Vision 2030 project, the Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport directly threaten the Kingdom’s strategy. It wants to become a global centre for business, logistics, tourism, hospitality and major global events, including the Expo 2030 and the FIFA World Cup in 2034.
Before the current attacks, the airport handled roughly 110,000 passengers a day — similar in scale to Miami International airport. It is also the base of Riyadh Air, a new airline backed by Saudi’s PIF, which seeks to establish the city as a major transport hub to rival Dubai and Doha.
These latest developments come as Riyadh is already grappling with rising fiscal challenges.
The Kingdom recorded a fiscal deficit of 160 billion riyals ($42.7 billion) in the first half of 2026, up 71% from 93 billion riyals a year earlier, as it increased spending to prop up growth amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.
Earlier this month, the Finance Ministry raised its estimated 2026 budget deficit by 48% to 245 billion riyals ($65.33 billion), equivalent to 4.9% of GDP.
Such revisions and forecasts may now be due for another downgrade.
However, Krieg said it is premature to start calling into question the credibility of Saudi’s long-term economic plans.
“I would not extrapolate from several weeks of disruption to the collapse of Vision 2030,” he said.
“Saudi Arabia has enormous fiscal resources, deep domestic capital pools and the ability to keep strategic projects moving even when private capital becomes cautious. The long-term effect depends almost entirely on duration.”
Reeve also said that the extent of damage to investor confidence will be directly linked to the duration of the conflict and that the onus will now be on the government to reassure investors.
“Foreign investors are unlikely to up sticks at this point,” he said. “They will want to see how long the strikes last and how the government and PIF might respond in terms of loosening the purse strings to shore up confidence.”
But he was more pessimistic overall, adding: “All in all, I think current events are quite a big blow to the Vision 2030 thesis.”
The kingdom’s flagship business summit, the Future Investment Initiative (FII), dubbed ‘Davos in the desert’ is due to be held in under two weeks. It will be the most immediate litmus test of investor sentiment towards the kingdom.
On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Riyadh was planning to make FII a hybrid event, giving executives the option to take part remotely.
In previous years, applications to FII were tightly vetted, making it one of the hottest tickets in town, attracting Wall Street titans such as BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
Just over three months ago, PIF’s governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan told a packed auditorium at the FII’s Priority Europe summit in Rome that the sovereign wealth fund’s strategy is “to bring the world back to Saudi”.
With missiles raining down and travel warnings in place, the world will first need to be reassured that it is safe.
Melissa Hancock
And as ever, thanks for reading, and do keep in touch with your thoughts and ideas.
melissa.hancock@fortune.com
Abu Dhabi advances AI ambitions
Abu Dhabi is betting on AI to help the government run better
Last week, Abu Dhabi joined forces with tech giants OpenAI and Microsoft to launch AiNative, an AI training program that aims to train 20,000 government employees as part of its ambition to become the world’s first AI-powered government by 2027.
The program—announced at the Ai Everything conference in the capital–will give government employees hands-on experience with tools such as ChatGPT, Codex, and Microsoft 365 Copilot.
Later phases will offer more specialized training and certifications tailored to specific roles, including coding and data.
Citizens and residents will also benefit from aspects of the training program that cover practical applications of AI in everyday life, including managing personal finances, running a small business, and finding a job.
AiNative forms part of Abu Dhabi’s AED 13 billion ($3.5 billion) Digital Strategy 2025–2027, which seeks to strengthen AI adoption and digital infrastructure, automate 100% of government processes, and deploy sovereign cloud computing across all government operations.
By 2027, the strategy is projected to generate more than AED 24 billion ($6.54 billion) in economic value for the emirate.
It forms part of a broader shift in the UAE’s approach to AI, moving beyond investment in the technology to embedding it into how government and society function.
Speaking to Fortune contributor, Inzamam Rashid, at the Ai Everything conference in Abu Dhabi last week, Ruba Al Hassan, director general of strategic affairs and future foresight at Abu Dhabi’s Department of Government Enablement, explained how she is working to automate routine administrative tasks such as licence renewals and utility payments through the emirate’s AutoGov service.
You can read Rashid’s full interview with Al Hassan and what it means for Abu Dhabi’s AI-powered government vision here.
SoftBank courts Gulf investors
SoftBank looks to revive Gulf backing for its AI investments
SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son, is said to be targeting up to $100 billion in funding from Gulf investors to bankroll a fresh wave of AI investments.
Son has held talks in recent weeks with senior figures, including in the UAE, about the potential fundraising, the FT reported.
As part of the potential Gulf-backed fundraising, the SoftBank founder would use the money to establish a fund that would acquire companies and enhance their operations with AI and other advanced technologies.
Saudi’s Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala were major backers of SoftBank’s inaugural $93 billion Vision Fund, launched in 2017.
Since its launch, the first Vision Fund had accumulated about $29 billion in investment gains by the end of June. Vision Fund 2, launched more recently and funded primarily by SoftBank, has generated $20.5 billion in gains.
However, the first Vision Fund has also suffered a series of high-profile setbacks among its bets on so-called “disruptor” startups, most notably WeWork, which filed for bankruptcy and underwent a major debt restructuring. It led to SoftBank earning the less-than-desirable moniker “Nasdaq whale” for its role in fuelling a frenzied rally in big tech stocks.
As highlighted in last week’s newsletter, OpenAI is reportedly in talks with several UAE investment funds, including Abu Dhabi-based MGX, to anchor a $30 billion fundraising round for the company. The UAE funds may invest as a consortium and are discussing a combined investment of up to $10 billion.
The Big Number
-4.3
Last week, the World Bank revised its real GDP forecast for the GCC to a -4.3% GDP contraction versus a previous forecast of 1.3% growth. The biggest downward revisions were for Qatar to -21% (from -6%) and Kuwait to -15% (from -6%).
The 3 things we enjoyed reading this week
- A series of strategic miscalculations dragged Saudi back into war in Yemen, as CNN explores in this analysis piece. Riyadh’s split with the UAE, failure to coordinate effectively with allied Yemeni forces, and overreliance on U.S. military support have left it vulnerable to an increasingly powerful Houthi movement backed by Iran. Despite seeking international support and launching a new military offensive, Saudi Arabia faces a conflict with no clear endgame, as fragmented allies and unresolved regional tensions make a lasting solution hard to achieve.
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The Middle East has seen several significant archaeological discoveries in 2026, revealing new insights into ancient civilizations and the region’s rich history. Highlights include a Bronze Age communal tomb in Al Ain, a potentially lost Egyptian city linked to Pharaoh Ramses II, and a rare Assyrian royal monument uncovered in Iraq. In Egypt, an underwater excavation in Alexandria uncovered a bronze ring depicting the legendary Lighthouse of Alexandria, while prehistoric rock art in Sinai reveals thousands of years of human activity.
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A new 18-month partnership between NYU Abu Dhabi and the U.S. State Department will bring together 30 graduate students from the UAE and U.S. to design and build lunar rovers. The project will draw on the UAE’s growing space capabilities, including locally developed lunar soil simulants and testing facilities, to tackle challenges such as abrasive Moon dust. Beyond supporting the UAE’s lunar ambitions, the initiative aims to develop skilled engineers, strengthen scientific ties between the two countries and create opportunities for future research and commercial innovation. The benefits of space exploration extend well beyond the Moon, potentially driving advances in energy storage, electric vehicles and other technologies on Earth.
