“If they continue to cut rates and they don’t increase their buyback program, we could see the 10-year start spiking, which obviously would be bad for the industry,” he said. “However, I think because the 10-year has been rallying ever since they made the announcements, and then with the lower job numbers, I think the traders are assuming that the Fed will continue and increase QE as they lower rates.
“It’s a complete crap shoot as to what they actually decide to do. No one knows. They could just cut rates and not increase QE. That could cause the 10-year to go up, which would be bad for the industry. So we just don’t know what they’re going to do.”
Don’t wait to act
Agarwal said because there are so many unknowns right now in the economy, it may not pay off for brokers to tell customers to wait for potentially lower rates.
“I see a lot of loan officers will say, ‘Just wait. The Fed is going to cut rates, and rates are going to get lower,’” he said. “’So let’s wait on marketing to our customers on lower interest rates and refinances.’ I think that’s a bad idea, because it’s 50/50: 50% chance rates go down, or 50% chance rates go up.”
Fed cuts have stirred hopes for lower mortgage rates, but Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage warns that “too much noise” makes forecasts uncertain. From tariffs to politics, unexpected shifts keep the outlook unclear.
Read full story here.https://t.co/hiFH3Nr1B0
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) September 18, 2025
Rather than waiting and potentially losing out on those refinances, Agarwal said, if you have customers who are ready to move forward with a refinance, you should push ahead instead of encouraging them to wait.
