Nvidia (NVDA 0.79%) reports its fiscal first-quarter results after the market closes Wednesday (today), and the release will give investors the clearest read yet on whether the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out that has consumed the AI chipmaker’s order book is still gaining steam.
The stock has quietly climbed into the report. Shares recently touched an all-time high closing price of $235.74 on May 14, but have pulled back some since then. Still, Nvidia is up about 19% year to date, easily outperforming the broader market.
Even with the headline revenue and earnings sure to grab attention, a handful of items further down in the report — starting with what management says about the quarter ahead — could matter more.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. The bar Nvidia has to clear
Nvidia‘s own guidance, issued in February, called for fiscal first-quarter revenue of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. That figure implies revenue growth of roughly 77% from the year-ago quarter — another step up in a year-over-year growth pattern that has been steadily picking up steam: 56% in fiscal Q2, 62% in fiscal Q3, 73% in fiscal Q4, and now an implied 77% in fiscal Q1.
What may matter more, however, is the outlook for the current quarter.
Wall Street estimates for fiscal Q2 sit at approximately $87 billion. A guide materially below that — even paired with a healthy fiscal first quarter — could be read as the first sign of the AI demand wave losing pace — and the stock could take a hit.
Also worth noting, beginning with this quarter, Nvidia is including stock-based compensation in its non-GAAP (adjusted) measures. So that’s worth keeping in mind as investors compare the figure to prior quarters.
2. Vera Rubin: Nvidia’s next platform
The second item to watch is the Vera Rubin transition.
Named after the late astronomer, Nvidia’s next-generation rack-scale platform succeeds Blackwell and is being positioned as a generational leap in performance per watt rather than just an iteration. On Nvidia’s most recent earnings call, chief financial officer Colette Kress said the company “shipped our first Vera Rubin samples to customers earlier this week, and we remain on track to commence production shipments in the second half of the year.”
The company doubled down at its GTC conference in March, announcing that seven new chips were in full production and that the rack-scale Vera Rubin NVL72 systems would begin shipping from cloud providers in the second half of the year.
Any color in the earnings report or during the subsequent earning call on yields and customer demand would be insightful for investors.
Today’s Change
(-0.79%) $-1.75
Current Price
$220.57
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$5.3T
Day’s Range
$217.92 – $224.47
52wk Range
$129.16 – $236.54
Volume
3.5M
Avg Vol
171M
Gross Margin
71.07%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
3. China: An opportunity and a risk
Then there’s China. In its fiscal fourth-quarter release, Nvidia explicitly said it was “not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China” in the first-quarter outlook. But the picture has since shifted. In mid-January, the Trump administration eased export restrictions on Nvidia’s H200 chip, allowing case-by-case approvals with a 25% tariff attached. And CEO Jensen Huang told Bloomberg earlier this week that “over time, the market will open.”
Whether Nvidia begins to fold any of that into its outlook — or stays cautious — will be one of the more meaningful unknowns of Nvidia’s earnings update.
What we do know going into the report is that demand for AI in general seems insatiable for now.
Combined 2026 capital expenditures plans from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms now total about $725 billion — up from about $410 billion a year earlier. That backdrop is the foundation beneath Nvidia’s growth story.
At a price-to-earnings ratio of about 45, Nvidia shares aren’t cheap going into the report. But with growth seemingly still accelerating and hyperscaler spending plans only growing, the AI chipmaker could quiet skeptics yet again. Whatever happens, one thing is certain: the bar is high.
