Time flies when you’re having fun, building drones, and waiting to hold an IPO! Barely 18 months ago, I took a look at “unicorn” company Anduril Industries, its $1 billion in 2024 sales, and its $30 private market valuation — and decided the stock was probably overvalued at 30 times sales. (Most traditional defense companies are fairly valued closer to 1 times sales.)
But somebody disagreed.
Actually, a lot of somebodies.
In a funding round held in May 2026, private market investors valued the defense technology upstart at twice the price at which I had dismissed it just one year earlier — $61 billion. And five months later, we just learned that Anduril’s valuation has jumped again, by nearly 50%.
Image source: Anduril.
CNBC reports on Anduril
As CNBC reported earlier this week, Anduril has filed notice that it will hold a “tender offer” to permit some of its employees to cash in their stock options and stock holdings in the company. According to the news agency, the new private market value of Anduril stock will be “roughly $90 billion.”
Which is to say, 48% more than Anduril was worth just five months ago, and up 3 times from its valuation in June 2025.
But is that valuation justified?
How to value Anduril stock (just in case it IPOs)
Anduril CEO Palmer Luckey is on record saying it’s “important” that his company hold an initial public offering. When that happens, the question of valuation will become urgent for investors — at least those who don’t want to lose money on the IPO. With that in mind, here’s how I look at Anduril’s valuation:
Thirty times sales seemed obviously overvalued to me last year. Now, the good news is that Anduril isn’t generating $1 billion in revenue a year anymore. According to a March Reuters report, the company is on track to generate $4.3 billion in sales this year. So a $90 billion valuation implies the stock is selling for “only” about 21 times sales.
(Hint: Even that is too much.)
Worse, Anduril isn’t actually making money on those sales. Reuters estimates Anduril will lose $1 billion this year, and other sources suggest the company won’t turn its first profit before 2030.
Oh, and all this was before Anduril promised to spend $3.7 billion building an incredibly capital-intensive shipyard to produce submarine parts for the U.S. Navy.
Make no mistake: I’m a fan of Anduril as a company, and I love the idea that it is producing military hardware at affordable prices and shaking up the Pentagon’s procurement process to encourage America’s military to spend its money more wisely.
Much as I like the company, however, I’m afraid that as an IPO and as a stock, Anduril is going to end up looking vastly overpriced.
