The Ugly Truth Behind ₹15Cr Trading : Luck, Skill, Survival & Success | Ashwin Raghavan | FWS 102

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Ashwin Raghavan’s story is one of the most unusual journeys in the trading world. A former software engineer and product manager at PhonePe, he walked away from a high-paying corporate career after experiencing burnout and decided to pursue trading full time. What followed was a wild ride. Ashwin went through massive ups and downs, losing a large part of his savings at one point, before eventually turning about ₹7.5 lakh into nearly ₹15 crore within two years.

He also competed in the prestigious US Investing Championship against global traders with million-dollar portfolios and finished among the top performers with extraordinary returns in a short period of time.

In this episode, Ashwin breaks down how he thinks about the markets and why trading is more about understanding psychology than complicated math. He explains the difference between fundamental and technical analysis, how chart patterns reflect the behavior of “smart money,” and why risk management and stop losses are critical for survival in trading.

The conversation also covers his biggest wins, painful losses, the dangers of leverage, and the mindset required to survive the emotional rollercoaster of the markets. If you are curious about trading, market psychology, and what it really takes to generate outsized returns, this episode offers a raw and honest look into the life of a professional trader.

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Sharan Hegde is a personal finance creator & founder of the 1% Club, simplifying money, markets, and mindset for India’s next generation of wealth builders.
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Timeline:
00:00 – Precap
01:00 – Introducing the guest, Ashwin Raghavan
01:33 – How life changed for him
02:39 – He’s in the world’s top 5 traders?
06:28 – How he missed the 1st position
08:03 – How much of trading is luck vs skill
10:03 – Why he quit his ₹60 LPA job
12:50 – How hard is it to be a successful trader
16:55 – His craziest bet in trading
18:45 – Fundamental vs technical investing
19:35 – Why technical investing works
21:29 – How he learned trading
24:35 – What is the Volatility Contraction Pattern?
27:51 – How Ashwin multiplied his gold returns
29:46 – Why Ashwin still prefers leverage
31:00 – How time works against you in options
35:54 – Ashwin’s return expectations for 2026
37:28 – What’s the caveat he faces to get super rich?
38:11 – Rapid fire round
42:27 – Ending notes

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49 COMMENTS

  1. Having anayzsed his transaction there are definitely all money made only on Commodities. Aluminium and Gold had increased substancially and he did get a clinch of that. Similarly the crude prices has also helped him. But his stocks and futures has screwed him

  2. let me do dislike the video first 1 min cuz he gained too much in too less so he basically had the best odds in a gamble, ohh shit he did fno, time to not watch the video thankyou, disclaimer : dont need to watch, watch and learn and trade and good luck wiht playing with odds and lose

  3. Giving back ₹6 Cr of a ₹7 Cr unrealized gain highlights severe position-sizing and trade-management issues. With that degree of leverage, a routine drawdown streak will wipe out his capital. While he advocates for strict risk parameters, executing predefined hard stops in the system—rather than discretionary exits—is the only thing that will prevent a total blowout.

  4. I am a trader myself. If you want to realistic predictions, you need Fixed range volume profile and order flow chart. I use Gocharting. Please use them both. It makes trading a bit more easier

  5. that was quite honest to reveal on leveraged gold options gains.regardless winning the contest gets a thumps up..having said that i thought u would ask what if nse exchange goes down whole day like when it happened few years back feb 24 2021 glitch.., would he survive ?

  6. What He Did

    He made one big bet: long gold futures. That's it. That's the whole story.

    – Commodity (gold): +₹17.31 Cr profit
    – F&O (equity derivatives): -₹2.56 Cr loss
    – Equity (stocks): -₹8.4L loss
    – Net: ₹14.67 Cr profit

    Strip out the gold futures, and he's a losing trader across every other
    segment.

    Where the ₹17 Cr Came From

    Five gold futures positions did all the heavy lifting:
    – GOLD26FEBFUT: +₹10.08 Cr
    – GOLD26JUNFUT: +₹7.97 Cr
    – GOLD25OCTFUT: +₹3.57 Cr
    – GOLD26APRFUT: +₹3.47 Cr
    – GOLD25DECFUT: +₹1.36 Cr

    Gold went from ~₹75,000 to ₹1,50,000+ per 10g in this period. He was long with
    ₹300+ Cr notional positions. The market did the work.

    Where He Lost

    – Silver: -₹4.9 Cr (same thesis, didn't work as well)
    – Copper: -₹1.45 Cr
    – Nifty options: Multiple expired worthless at -100% (BANKNIFTY 60000CE, NIFTY
    DEC 26200CE, NIFTY NOV 26000CE, NIFTY JAN 27000CE at -93%)
    – Stock futures: BAJAJFINSV -₹75.9L, SRF -₹36L, TATAPOWER -₹27.4L, BAJAJ-AUTO
    -₹27.3L — all losses
    – Stocks: 6 out of 9 equity picks lost money

    Luck or Strategy?

    Mostly luck + conviction on one macro trend. Here's why:

    1. No diversified edge. A skilled trader shows consistent returns across
    instruments. He loses money on stocks, equity F&O, silver, and copper. His
    "skill" is concentrated entirely in one asset going one direction.
    2. Reckless sizing. ₹300 Cr notional in a single gold contract. If gold
    corrected 5%, that's ₹15 Cr gone — more than his entire profit.
    3. Lumpy returns. His best single day (Feb 1) was ₹7.12 Cr — nearly half his
    total annual profit in one day. That's not consistent alpha, that's a
    windfall.
    4. Options trading is poor. Multiple positions going to zero means he's buying
    far OTM options without managing them — gambling, not hedging.
    5. Gold was in a historic bull run. Anyone who went long gold futures in late
    2025 and held would have made money. He did it with massive size, so the
    absolute number looks impressive.

    Bottom line: He had the conviction to go heavy long gold during a generational
    bull run, and that takes guts. But the Substack link in his profile tells you
    the real play — he's using this verified P&L to build an audience and likely
    sell advisory/courses. The ₹14.67 Cr number is real, but it's one bet, not
    repeatable skill.

  7. First Lesson in life dont get greedy, greed eats your mind and your pocket. 12% is more than enough a year for your retirement. Money comes with discipline and consistency. Not via gambling and speculation.😂 I learnt this in my 23.

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