Analysts at Barclays said the sector is risking another “lost year,” with elevated inventories and incentives eating into profitability.
War, oil and a faltering spring
The US–Israel war with Iran, which broke out on February 28, pushed oil above $100 a barrel and helped nudge the average 30‑year mortgage rate back into the mid‑6% range, after a brief dip below 6% in late February.
The conflict adds a fresh layer of uncertainty for buyers already wary of prices and job security, with survey data suggesting many households delayed big‑ticket purchases such as homes.
“Geopolitical tensions, higher rates, and broader economic uncertainty are weighing on consumers in a vital period of the spring selling season,” Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley said.
Wells Fargo analyst Sam Reid noted that housing stocks lagged the S&P 500 since the start of the war, while Evercore ISI’s Stephen Kim called this year’s spring season “disappointing” compared with 2024 and 2025.
