Much will hinge on whether that US-Iran conflict can be wrapped up quickly, he said. “If we see tensions ease and oil prices begin to normalize, that could provide some relief to the bond market and potentially mortgage rates,” he said.
“On the other hand, a prolonged conflict that keeps energy prices elevated could make it more difficult for inflation to improve and keep rates higher for longer.”
That’s not to say the outlook is uniformly negative. Pent-up demand has built in many markets, while buyers have more negotiating power elsewhere than they did a few years ago – meaning those who are in a position to purchase can often strike a good deal.
What’s more, Lessard said most borrowers have long accepted that COVID-era interest rates are firmly a thing of the past.
“I think we’ll continue to see consumers adjust to the current rate environment rather than waiting indefinitely for dramatically lower rates,” he said. “Ultimately, I think the rest of 2026 will be less about waiting for the perfect interest rate and more about finding the right opportunity and structuring the financing correctly.
